Revisiting Baseball’s Offseason Moves

In the Internet age, sports are a year-round business. You have the season. And you have the offseason.

Every offseason, we spend countless hours projecting who will sign where, then determining the wisdom of those decisions before they have a chance to play out. Of course those opinions are really just perceptions and projections, which are often based on whether the eventual moves lined up with our pre-move projections, but that doesn't stop us.

Hey, it's December and games don't start till April. We've got to have something to talk about.

So accepting that we're just a dozen or so games into the season, let's revisit some of the major moves from the offseason and see how they're working out.

Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson to the Los Angeles Angels

Pujols was an all-time hot stove story — the kind that actually started two years before the once-pride of St. Louis decided to trade in his Cardinals legacy for Arte Moreno's money, daughters and soul.

Everybody knows Pujols has gotten off to his second consecutive slow start. Although April 2012 has been slightly more kind to Pujols than April 2011, it is still way below the starts he was accustomed to during his record-producing first decade in the Big Leagues:

* In the first month (March/April) from 2001 and 2010, Pujols hit over .320 seven times and averaged a cumulative .328. Last year, it was just .245 in the first month-plus, and he's at .268 so far this year.

* Pujols' early-season homers last year were on par with historical standard with seven, but his doubles dropped from an average of 6.4 in March-April from 2001 to 2010 to just one last year. Meanwhile, his GIDP (grounded in double plays), increased from an average of 3.2 in March-April 2001-2010 to a nine last season.

Not coincidentally, in 2011 Pujols finished with career lows in doubles (29) and batting average (.299) and a career high in GIDP (29). His walks were also a career-low with just 61 on the season; he's at three in 44 plate appearances so far in 2012.

Of course the #smallsamplesize hashtag is certainly in play here, especially for this season. I'm by no means willing to throw dirt on the Pujols Era in baseball. Not with five months left in the season. But the fact is he's performing at career-worst levels, and he has for the better part of the last calendar year.

With just two starts so far this year, Wilson's sample size is even smaller that Pujols'. But at least Wilson's early season has seen success, with a 2-0 record, 1.38 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The fact he's done in it two road wins, over the Twins and Yankees, makes it all the better.

Not only has Wilson responded to the pressure of the big deal with results, his steadiness protects the Angels as Ervin Santana does his "maybe I suck, maybe I don't" routine for the next few weeks.

Wilson is 31 and only on the books for five seasons, meaning the Angels won't have the big bucks sunk into (another) aging player as they work on Jered Weaver's last big contract in 2016.

Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell to the Miami Marlins

The Marlins are a mess, and it starts from the top with a shady owner who hired the big mouth manager who happened to open his big mouth and said something stupid that forced his suspension to quell the PR hit the franchise was taking.

Not only was the Ozzie Guillen hiring more about headlines than winning baseball, so was their offseason strategy of throwing huge money at Jose Reyes, the very epitome of flash greatness (the "flash" part because it's not usually there). In nine seasons with the Mets, he made just four all-star teams and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting once (seventh in 2006). He's hitting .238 so far this season with a .289 on-base percentage and four errors, tied for the most in baseball.

Buerhle is 0-2, although he's pitched decently on the road in Philadelphia and Cincinnati. He's not getting hammered, but he's not blowing anybody away either. Basically, he's being Mark Buehrle. Nothing more, nothing less.

The Heath Bell signing was doomed from the get go. The signs of decline started last year with a drop in his k/9 from 11.1 in 2010 to 7.3 last year. The impact of more balls in play was mitigated by an unusually low Batting Average on Balls in Play last year at just .269 (down from .329 in 2010 and a career average of .309), but with the K rate still on the decline (6.0 in four appearances) and the "luck" factor going the other way (.500 BAbip), the results have not been pretty (blown his only two save chances).

Prince Fielder to the Detroit Tigers

This has the makings of being the best move of the offseason. Of course you can always question the wisdom of giving somebody with Fielder's body type a nine-year contract, but he's only 27 and should be able to last as a DH through his mid-30s, so there's much less risk than with Pujols (who will make $6 million more in the final season of his deal at age 41 than Fielder will in his at 36).

But that debate is for another time. Right now, Fielder and Cabrera are the cornerstones of one of the most dangerous offense in the majors. Hitting clean-up, Fielder is batting .324 with a .395 on-base percentage. He would probably have more than his five RBI if it wasn't for Cabrera knocking them in before Fielder gets a chance.

You never want to read too much into early results, but what Detroit has on offense looks sustainable. This could be a special season in Motown, and Fielder is going to be right at the heart of it.

Red Sox replace Terry Francona with Bobby Valentine

Bobby V. just can't help himself. Everybody knew this coming in, so it should be no surprise that things have already spiraled into the absurd with Valentine calling out Kevin Youkilis for not being as invested in the game as he once way.

Valentine's style can only work in two kinds of places: a young team without any established credibility, or a team that has sucked and is willing to do whatever to get over the hump.

The Red Sox are neither of these things. They are a club of huge contracts, and the egos to match. Many of these guys were around for the title seasons — guys like Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia (who really took offense to Valentine's comments about Youkilis), David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Josh Beckett.

Did the Red Sox need something to change in a clubhouse that sounded like it got too comfortable with itself? Yes. Getting rid of Francona was the right thing to do. But adding Valentine's personality to that club, with the Boston media always on the prowl for the next thing to feel crappy about, showed a fundamental lack of understanding of human psychology. The fact new GM Ben Cherington didn't want to hire Valentine but was overruled by ownership just makes the club seem that much more dysfunctional.

Yu Darvish to the Texas Rangers

Darvish has been mediocre to start (1-0 with a 4.76 ERA, 2.20 WHIP and 9/8 K/BB ratio), but he's young and the dollars weren't too outrageous (unless you count the posting fee). I'd be a bit worried as a Rangers fan that Darvish couldn't control the Twins or Mariners, two of what figure to be the more anemic offenses in the AL this year, but the adjustment period from Japan to the US has to account for some of that.

The main issue for Darvish is how his confidence will hold up if he doesn't get things turned around. There's no pressure on him now because the Rangers are winning, but with series against the Tigers, Yankees and Rays coming up, a continued pounding may spiral into a major concern.

Other moves that look good (so far):

* Cardinals signing Carlos Beltran (.324 BA, 1.013 OPS) and hiring Mike Matheny to replace Tony La Russa

* Nationals signing Edwin Jackson (1-0, 2.57 ERA, 0.643 WHIP, 15/3 K/BB) and trading for Gio Gonzalez (0-0, 3.38 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 13/3 K/BB)

* Rays signing Carlos Pena (.351 BA, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1.169 OPS)

* Indians signing Derek Lowe (2-0, 1.98 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, although just three strikeouts in 13.2 IP)

* Twins signing Josh Willingham (.389 BA, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 1.254 OPS)

* A's signing Bartolo Colon (2-1, 3.72 ERA, 0.931 WHIP, 14/2 K/BB)

* Dodgers signing Matt Kemp (.487 BA, 6 HR, 16 RBI) to a very friendly deal (8 years, $160 million) considering position and other deals signed by Fielder (9 years, $214M), Pujols (10 years, $240 million) and Cincinnati's Joey Votto (10 years, $225 million)

* Diamondbacks acquiring Trevor Cahill (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.050 WHIP) from the A's

Other moves that look a little shaky in the early going:

* Toronto top prospect Nestor Molina to the White Sox for closer Sergio Santos (0-1, 12.00 ERA, 2.333 WHIP, 1 save)

* Red Sox failing to replace catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.100 BA this season, .235 last season)

* Rangers relying on 37-year-old closer Joe Nathan (0-2, 7 H and 4 ER in 6 IP, 3 saves)

* A's signing the Cuban Wily Mo Pena (aka Yoenis Cespedes (.212 BA, 3 HR, 15 SO)

* Reds trading for Mat Latos (0-1, 5.59 ERA, 12 H and 6 ER in 9.2 IP) and the Padres taking Edinson Volquez (14 hits and 12 walks in 17 IP) in return