Why “The Ultimate Fighter” is Failing

Seven years ago, a reality show called The Ultimate Fighter saved the UFC. With the company struggling and desperate, the series introduced both hardcore fans and casual channel-flippers to athletes and personalities like Chris Leben, Nate Quarry, Diego Sanchez, and Kenny Florian. The series finale featured an epic fight, often described as the most important in mixed martial arts history, and sometimes as the best fight ever in the UFC, between Stephan Bonnar and Forrest Griffin.

Stars like Griffin and Sanchez turned around the company's fortunes and made immediate impact in the sport. Griffin went on to become a UFC champion, and several other fighters who starred on The Ultimate Fighter have also fought in championship bouts. Following years of declining ratings, and a new television deal with FOX, the show this season changed networks, overhauled its format, and even changed its name to The Ultimate Fighter: Live. The ratings have been dismal. Why?

There are probably a lot of reasons, but here are some of the leaders:

Fans don't know which channel to watch.

Let's not be naïve. Many fans are probably watching TUF re-runs on Spike instead of the new show on FX. This problem is obviously correctable over time, but it's clearly part of the issue.

Viewers have other plans for their Fridays.

Long a staple of Wednesday nights, the show has moved to Fridays. Some fans are probably unaware of the change, while others simply have different plans for their weekends than they do on Wednesdays. Many fans already sacrifice part of their social lives to watch full events on Saturday nights; giving up Fridays as well may be too much to ask.

The show is competing against itself.

About a week after the launch of TUF: Live, the first-ever international version of the show debuted on Brazilian television and UFC.com. Honestly, the Brazilian show, which retains the old format, is more interesting than the new US version.

Over-saturation.

I suspect the UFC has lost large portions of its audience from both sides of the fan spectrum: casual fans who didn't even realize the show was switching nights and channels, and hard-core fans who have better options now. In the past, many fight fans tuned in to TUF just because it was an opportunity to watch MMA. Fans were happy to sit through an hour-long show if there was a fight at the end. In 2004, the year before the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, the UFC only put on five events. In 2011, it held 27 events.

Hardcore fans already devote an enormous amount of time to watching the UFC, about half the Saturday nights in the year. Add in the new season of Bellator, two simultaneous seasons of TUF, and various smaller or growing promotions like Super Fight League, and there's just not a lot of time left over. I'm a huge fan of MMA, but I can't keep up with it all. Bellator and TUF: Brazil are more entertaining than the new show on FX. For that matter, so is Bully Beatdown. I'm supposed to tune away from Mayhem Miller to watch Chris Tickle?

The new format is a change for the worse.

The live format was a bad idea. It feels like there's a bunch of dead time waiting for the fights, and one of the most interesting parts of the old show, the taped interviews with the coaches where they sum up the action, is gone now, or moved to the beginning of the next episode, where it's less effective.

The post-fight interviews with Jon Anik are not only boring, they're cringe-inducing. Not that it's Anik's fault, it's just an awful idea. I hate interviews with the losing fighter, especially after a KO or TKO. No one should be interviewing a fighter who got knocked out literally a minute earlier.

For the winners, the old taped interviews with fighters speaking to the camera were more interesting and engaging; the contestants seemed more human. Interviews with a breathless victor are less so, especially because these guys are all conducting themselves like professionals. I'm not saying I miss Junie Browning and Bobby Southworth, but there's nothing interesting about these guys giving bland interviews with sound bytes. The fighters were more honest and open and emotional in the old format.

It's harder to root for someone who already seems like a pro. Where are all the underdogs, the Amir Sadollahs and Cody McKenzies who don't even belong here? Maybe it's just these particular coaches and fighters, but I think the live format has the cast keeping its guard up a lot more than the pre-recorded show did.

The quick transition to picking next week's fight also drains the drama out of the fight announcements, which aren't all that compelling immediately following a fight. Everything just seems bland this season.

Some of these issues can only be corrected with time. Eventually, some of the people still looking for TUF on Wednesday nights on Spike will catch on to the new show Fridays on FX. Other problems will never change. The growth of MMA, for instance, is good for the UFC but bad for the reality show. The fans who once watched TUF simply to get their MMA fix have other options now, and some of them will never commit an hour of their weekends to watching a two-round fight between a couple of guys who may not be very good.

But many of the problems are correctable. Running the Brazil show concurrently with the new live program was probably a mistake, and I doubt the UFC will repeat it. More significantly, the live format needs major tweaking, and I hope FX and the UFC will work together to address some of its shortcomings. I'd like to see them drop the live fights entirely and return to a recorded broadcast. Watching an event live only makes it more exciting because you don't know the results beforehand, so in the absence of leaks, pre-recorded fights are just as good. Failing that, I'd like to get announcers for the live fights, maybe even a crowd. The only reason not to do it before was spoilers, and that's not an issue if you're live.

April 2012 UFC Rankings

The rankings below are exclusively for the UFC, so you won't see names like Alexander Shlemenko or Hiroyuki Takaya on these lists.

Heavyweight (206-265 lbs)

1. Junior Dos Santos
2. Cain Velasquez
3. Alistair Overeem
4. Frank Mir
5. Fabricio Werdum
6. Shane Carwin
7. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
8. Brendan Schaub
9. Roy Nelson
10. Mark Hunt

Make it Happen: Dos Santos vs. Fëdor Emelianenko

Alistair Overeem, in case you missed it, failed a random drug test for his title fight with Dos Santos. Long the subject of speculation regarding performance-enhancing drugs, Overeem submitted a sample that registered more than twice the permissible testosterone limit, approximately 14 times the normal level. UFC President Dana White has shot down speculation regarding Mir or Hunt stepping in to replace Overeem, and I think that's wise. JDS vs. Mir doesn't really make anyone happy, but it does ruin a compelling fight between Mir and Velasquez.

Fëdor Emelianenko is not in the UFC, and he probably never will be, but he and his management team have expressed interest recently, and this is a fight Dana knows he could sell. It's probably 100-to-1, but if Overeem doesn't get cleared to fight, this is the best direction to go.

Thank You, UFC, For: UFC 146

Overeem's testosterone violation has cast a major pall over this event, and presumably scuttled one of the most anticipated matches in heavyweight history, but the UFC put together an incredible card of heavyweight action, and there's still a lot to like about this event.

Light Heavyweight (186-205)

1. Jon Jones
t2. Dan Henderson
t2. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
t2. Lyoto Machida
t2. Rashad Evans
6. Alexander Gustafsson
7. Phil Davis
8. Ryan Bader
9. Forrest Griffin
10. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson

I know using ties in a ranking is kind of weak, but stick with me. Hendo beat Shogun, Shogun beat Machida, Machida beat Evans. I wouldn't bet on Henderson against Evans, and definitely not against Machida. I think they're all great fighters, and — styles make fights — I think it's all about the matchups. Other than Jones and maybe Gustafsson, is there any other LHW in the world who would even have a good chance against those four? I don't believe so.

Make it Happen: Phil Davis vs. Stephan Bonnar

On paper, this is a mismatch, and I guess it might be. But Bonnar's won three in a row, he has a huge experience advantage, and his slick ground game means Davis can't just rely on his wrestling. At worst, this is an entertaining fight that moves Davis back into contending position. At best, a fan favorite scores a huge upset and returns to prominence at 205.

Thank You, UFC, For: Jones vs. Evans

Jones is an overwhelming favorite, and with good reason, but Rashad has looked terrific recently, and he's earned this shot.

Middleweight (171-185)

1. Anderson Silva
2. Chael Sonnen
3. Michael Bisping
4. Vitor Belfort
5. Yushin Okami
6. Mark Muñoz
7. Rousimar Palhares
8. Brian Stann
9. Alan Belcher
10. Tim Boetsch

Make it Happen: Okami vs. Stann

At some point, Stann has to prove himself against a great wrestler and someone who can match his size. I know there will be calls for Stann/Muñoz, and that makes sense except for the timing. Muñoz hasn't fought since November, and Stann probably won't be ready again until late summer. Rather than keeping Muñoz on the shelf, match him up against Chris Weidman.

Thank You, UFC, For: Rich Franklin vs. Cung Le

Neither is ever likely to be a serious contender again, but you know this will be a fun fight. I'm glad to see Rich back at middleweight.

Also, thank you for Palhares vs. Belcher (UFC on FOX 3, May 5).

Welterweight (156-170)

1. Georges St-Pierre
2. Carlos Condit
3. Nick Diaz
4. Johny Hendricks
5. Jon Fitch
6. Jake Ellenberger
7. Martin Kampmann
8. Jake Shields
9. Josh Koscheck
10. Rory MacDonald

Make it Happen: Fitch vs. Shields

Why put on two boring fights when you can condense them into one? I actually don't think Fitch is as dull as his reputation, but Shields really needs to round out to his game.

Thank You, UFC, For: Ellenberger vs. Kampmann

I think it's really pathetic that Carlos Condit is ducking all challengers until St-Pierre's knee heals. I've liked Condit since the WEC days, but that's just weak. Ellenberger and Kampmann both had good arguments for a shot at the interim title, and this is making the best of a bad situation.

Lightweight (146-155)

1. Ben Henderson
2. Frankie Edgar
3. Gray Maynard
4. Jim Miller
5. Anthony Pettis
6. Evan Dunham
7. Joe Lauzon
8. Clay Guida
9. Edson Barboza
10. Donald Cerrone

I don't understand people ranking Nate Diaz in the top five. He's lost two of his last four fights, and he's 3-3 at 155 since 2009. Diaz has won two fights in this weight class in the last 2½ years. If he beats Jim Miller, I'll admit I was wrong. Until then, I maintain people are confusing him with Nick.

Make it Happen: No More Immediate Rematches

I understand why people felt like Frank Edgar deserved an immediate rematch, after he gave them to B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard, but it's created a backlog of qualified contenders, including Miller, Pettis, and Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez. I know Frankie didn't want to change weight classes, and he shouldn't have to after the success he's had at lightweight, but I would much rather see Henderson vs. Pettis/Miller/Melendez, and Edgar vs. Jose Aldo at 145, than Bendo/Frankie II and Aldo vs. Someone He Will Destroy.

Thank You, UFC, For: Dunham vs. Barboza

Two young, talented fighters working their way into title contention. I'm surprised Barboza is such a heavy favorite (-240).

Featherweight (136-145)

1. Jose Aldo
2. Dustin Poirier
3. Erik Koch
4. Chad Mendes
5. Hatsu Hioki
6. Mark Hominick
7. Robert Peralta
8. Dennis Siver
9. Chan Sung Jung
10. Diego Nunes

Make it Happen: Mendes vs. Mike Thomas Brown

Give Brown a chance to show he's still elite, and force Mendes to prove he can beat someone strong and well-rounded.

Thank You, UFC, For: Poirier vs. Jung

The Korean Zombie gets a opportunity to show he can compete with the best. I suspect the winner of this fight will get the call to face Aldo.

Bantamweight (126-135)

1. Dominick Cruz
2. Urijah Faber
3. Renan "Barão" Pegado
4. Brian Bowles
5. Miguel Torres
6. Scott Jorgensen
7. Brad Pickett
8. Eddie Wineland
9. Michael McDonald
10. Ivan Menjivar

Make it Happen: Bowles vs. winner of Torres/McDonald

The winner of the Torres/McDonald becomes a serious title contender, and Bowles has never lost to anyone but Cruz and Faber. Alternatively, I wouldn't argue with the winner of Torres/McDonald vs. the winner of Barão/Menjivar. Speaking of which...

Thank You, UFC, For: Barão vs. Menjivar

A month ago, rumor pitted Barão against Jeff Hougland. I think he's going to roll through Ivan Menjivar, but this is much more logical matchup, expected for July. Barão lost the first fight of his career, in April 2005. Since then, he's 28-0, including wins over Jorgensen and Pickett.

Flyweight (116-125)

I'm not ranking this division until it has more fighters, but I expect Joseph Benavidez to become the first UFC flyweight champion.

UFC 145: Jones vs. Evans

This is actually kind of a weird event. Great undercard, weak main card, great main event. Every fight on the main card features a favorite of at least -250, a couple (Jones and Hominick) who are twice that. I won't re-hash the unusual relationship between Jones and his challenger, former champ Rashad Evans, but there's genuine bad blood on at least one side, and it's an exciting matchup. The emotional stakes add to that, but there's also Jones' aura of invincibility, and the slim hope that maybe Evans, the champ's former training partner, has a chance. Besides, Jones is never boring — there's a lot to look forward to.

Rashad's speed could give Jones problems, and his wrestling and reach make this a legitimately intriguing matchup. That said, it's hard to imagine anyone beating Jones right now, or even going the distance with him. I suspect Jones wins before the end of the second round.

The rest of the main card is almost silly to predict, because I'm not going with a +500 underdog, but if you really need to go against the odds, consider John Alessio (+270) against Mark Bocek. Alessio replaced Matt Wiman on relatively short notice, and he's won 10 of his last 11. I wouldn't bet it myself, but it's less risky than rolling the dice on Che Mills or Rashad. Chad Griggs (+250) is also an appealing underdog. I understand why Travis Browne is favored, but not at 3:1.

Honestly, this is the type of event that calls out for a parlay. Any 6-man parlay is begging for disaster, but Jon Jones + Rory MacDonald + Brendan Schaub + Mark Hominick + Miguel Torres + Maximo Blanco would yield over $100 on a $20 bet, and I feel like there's at least a 1-in-3 chance that hits. I worry about Torres against a young stud like Michael McDonald, especially after a layoff and his temporary release from the UFC, but this is a huge step up in competition for McDonald. He's never fought anyone of Torres' caliber.

Bellator Fighting Championships 66

The other huge, huge event next weekend is Friday night's Bellator rematch of Eddie Alvarez and Shinya Aoki. Alvarez is the favorite, which doesn't surprise me, but most books have him about -220, which seems crazy. After a couple shots of Jäger and some old DREAM highlights, I could talk myself into taking Aoki straight up, never mind as a 2-to-1 underdog. If you're the betting type, throw some small action on Aoki (+185) just to play the odds.

That's a stacked card, featuring four tournament semi-finals and two of the best lightweights in the world. Must-see for any serious fan of MMA.