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April 30, 2012

NBA Postseason in Search of Redemption

It was a win-one, lose-one kind of weekend for David Stern and the NBA.

Eight games in two days, all queued to avoid viewer conflict, kept the action continuous for fans, much like we're accustomed to on Wild Card Weekend and the first round of March Madness. And it had its share of drama. There was Big Baby Davis chipping in 16 points and 13 rebounds filling in for Dwight Howard in the Magic's 4-point upset of the Pacers in Indiana, and the Thunder's Kevin Durant hitting a game-winning jumper wearing the Mav's Shawn Marion. On an entirely higher level, Sunday night featured an historic comeback by the Los Angeles Clippers, who trailed the Grizzlies by as many as 27 points in the third quarter and were down by 24 with eight minutes to go before igniting a 26-1 run and stealing their opener in Memphis, 99-98.

But at the risk of sounding spoiled, the remainder of the opening weekend card was a wash-out. One after the other, the 76ers, Knicks, Jazz, Nuggets, and Celtics all mailed it in, willingly accepting their roles as road underdogs without even a trace of the fight NHL teams have been showing this spring. Even the Clippers came dangerously close to falling to this fate. Chris Paul summed it up best in his postgame comments, when he told Craig Sager, "It's a shame." These games, including 40 minutes of Sunday's nightcap, were dull and uninspiring. For the most part, the weekend slate took a back seat to my lawn getting fertilized. Funny, but I can't remember a single Wild Card Weekend where I'd only flip to the game during 60 Minutes commercial breaks.

I get that not every game can come down to wire. The NBA, after all, is not exactly NCAA basketball. But what really makes them an outright theft of time from any fan who invests part of their weekend in front of back-to-back quadruple-headers is the lethargy and inconsistent effort this league shovels out onto is hardwood floors on a nightly basis. As this weekend evidenced, the postseason will not be excepted.

Today's NBA player cannot stay focused for 48 minutes, cannot play on consecutive nights, and apparently cannot start a postseason with only one or two days off. Go into any town hall or registry of motor vehicles anywhere in this country and you'll see less-entitled, harder-working employees, and nobody is paying to see them work. Even the Clippers' effort was akin to finally putting out at 3:40 in the afternoon of your 9-to-5 shift.

More than any other athlete outside of MLB, the NBA player has become a fat, dumb, and unhappy shadow of the pioneers who made this a major spectator sport in the 1960s and the preeminent viewing event of the 1980s and 1990s. Given an excuse to dog it, they are grabbing with both hands. Enter Saturday's injuries.

Season-ending ACL tears to the Bulls' Derrick Rose and the Knicks's Iman Shumpert have seemingly rallied players around the idea that they have been pushed to impossible extremes that expose them to great risk of injury after a 66-game regular season played out over 123 days. And this was all before the Clippers' Caron Butler broke his left hand in the third quarter Sunday night. Everyone wants to blame Stern for the adverse effects of a condensed season, with or without the facts.

True, the Magic, Knicks, Hawks, and Celtics all entered the postseason with key injuries, but every other team was, for the most part, healthy. There is no empirical evidence to suggest the lockout or the adjusted schedule created a more injury-prone season. In fact, the NBA front office collects injury data — both objective and anecdotal — that suggest this season is not unlike any other. What's more, the medical community has weighed in on Saturday's ACL tears, and their verdict is that player weariness may actually work to prevent ACL tears since players lack the explosiveness needed to blow out a knee in the first place.

Jermaine O'Neal didn't get that message. The soon-to-be ex-Celtic, who, on Sunday, missed his 100th of Boston's 158 games over the past two seasons and could not finish a checkers tournament before withdrawing with a blistered index finger, tweeted his laments over fatigued bodies and condensed seasons after Saturday's injuries. Never mind that O'Neal was part of the association that ratified that schedule whose primary goal was to allow both sides to soak up as much lost revenue as possible out of our pockets.

The real losers in this condensed season have been and still are the fans. Back-to-backs and three-in-threes have limited star minutes all season, and the nightly sports recaps have been filled with whining players. The play is inconsistent, as everyone wants to pace themselves for the playoffs in the vein of MLB's “it's a marathon, not a sprint” spirit. What better hero is there to model your work ethic after than a Major League Baseball player?

It's only right that we should now look to this postseason for the players to redeem themselves. Yet, Ron Artest — sorry, but I can't bring myself to calling him “World Peace” — throws a deliberate elbow that gets him tossed from the first six Lakers playoff games, and Rajon Rondo chest-bumps a referee in crunch time to assuredly get himself a bench seat for the Celtics' crucial Game 2 in Atlanta on Tuesday. No doubt these indiscretions are due to the stress caused by the condensed season manifesting itself at the worst time. Once again, the fan pays.

So Stern & Company served us up five snoozers, three key injuries, and a pending suspension in just the first weekend of its second season. Fine. That comes with the turf in professional sports. But let's not buy into the whining and pretend this is due to a shortened season served out by innocent players in labor camp conditions.

We're far-removed from those glory days of the 1980s and '90s. Player petulance and inconsistent play come with the turf in today's NBA — postseason or otherwise.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 6:09 PM | Comments (0)

2012 NFL Draft Winners and Losers

Unlike the 2011 draft overshadowed by the owners' lockout, the 2012 draft was all about action, with pick-for-pick and player-for-pick trades dominating the headlines.

2012 Draft Winners

* Trigger-happy GMs — In the first round alone, nine teams traded up. All told, nearly half the league was involved in a trade involving a first-round pick. Personally, I love that. Trades are interesting, and it makes sense to target specific players rather than just "best available".

* Green Bay Packers — Loaded up on defense, solidifying their pass pressure with edge rusher Nick Perry and interior linemen Jerel Worthy and Mike Daniels. Cornerback Casey Hayward is a nice prospect to eventually replace Charles Woodson.

* Kansas City Chiefs — They figure to be a lot better in 2012 than 2011. Most of that comes just from an easier schedule and better luck with injuries, but they've also made some nice moves in free agency (Eric Winston), with a solid draft including Dontari Poe, the first defensive lineman off the board.

* Pick-for-player trades — Brandon Marshall for a pair of third-rounders. DeMeco Ryans for a fourth-rounder. Asante Samuel for a seventh. Huh? Marshall has as much pure talent as any receiver this side of Calvin Johnson. He has five straight 1,000-yard seasons and just turned 28. Surely a proven number one receiver is worth more than a couple draft choices that might yield starters. Ryans was the leader of a defense that ranked 2nd in yards allowed, a two-time Pro Bowler who's only 27. You're going to replace him with a fourth-round draft choice? Samuel has been one of the league's premier ballhawks for six seasons in a row. Even if he's slowing down, he's a starting corner, and most seventh-rounders don't even make the team, much less the starting defense.

* Cincinnati Bengals — Five picks in the first three rounds, thanks to a trade with the Patriots and the spoils of the Carson Palmer Robbery. Their early selections weren't sexy — a cornerback, three linemen, and a receiver from Rutgers — but after drafting Andy Dalton and A.J. Green last year, it was appropriate for the team to focus on less glamorous positions.

* Jacksonville Jaguars — Addressed their needs. I don't usually like trading up early in the first round, but Justin Blackmon makes so much sense for Jacksonville. The team hasn't had an elite receiver since Jimmy Smith, and it's hard to evaluate a young quarterback when he's throwing to sub-par talent. Pass rusher Andre Branch fills a huge need. The Jags ranked 32nd in sacks in 2009, 30th in 2010, and tied for 25th last year. They're moving in the right direction, but this is a long-standing problem.

* Minnesota Vikings — Another team that drafted for need without reaching for a player who could have been drafted lower. The team has high hopes for Matt Kalil as a franchise left tackle, and was even able to pick up a few extra picks by trading down and selecting him fourth. Their next two choices, DBs Harrison Smith and Josh Robinson, address the team's most vital need: pass coverage. Last year the Vikings tied for the league lead in sacks (50) but allowed the worst passer rating in the NFL (107.6).

* Quarterbacks — We've known for a long time that Andrew Luck was going to be a high draft pick, and Robert Griffin III got very hot after his Heisman win. But this was probably the best first round for QBs since 1999, with four quarterbacks taken, including three in the top 10 and both of the top two overall.

* Indianapolis Colts — Obviously their draft will turn on Andrew Luck's success at the pro level, but I like that they're putting him in position to succeed by drafting WR T.Y. Hilton and TEs Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen to give Luck some weapons besides Reggie Wayne.

* Alabama Crimson Tide — Four first-rounders, including two in the top 10, make them the most successful school in this year's draft.

* Pittsburgh Steelers — Remarkable just for the size of their draft picks. The first two went to offensive linemen David DeCastro and Mike Adams. DeCastro, the smaller of the two, goes 6'5", 316. Fourth-round nose tackle Alameda Ta'amu is listed at 348 lbs. Ta'amu alone could make this draft a success if he steps in for Casey Hampton, and at least one of the offensive linemen should help patch a perennial weakness.

* St. Louis Rams — Turned their original first-round pick into three ones, a two, and a five. They probably won't be good in 2012, but they're laying a foundation for the future.

2012 Draft Losers

* Washington Redskins — I believe they got robbed in the trade to get RG3, and I don't understand drafting another quarterback in the fourth round. This team has so many needs, and most of them haven't been adequately addressed.

* The Big Ten — Seven SEC players went before anyone from the Big Ten. Two Baylor Bears got drafted before anyone from the Big Ten. No one from this misnamed conference was drafted until the Lions chose Iowa lineman Riley Reiff 23rd overall. Twenty-two players were chosen before anyone from what is supposed to be a powerhouse conference.

* Miami Dolphins — There are some things I like about their draft, but Ryan Tannehill was probably a reach at 8th overall, and I don't see how Michael Egnew is going to replace Brandon Marshall.

* Kellen Moore — I know his size and arm strength scared teams away, but this is one of the most successful college QBs in memory, and it's stunning that no one even wanted to roll the dice on him in the later rounds.

* Seattle Seahawks — Maybe they got some good players, but they largely ignored their biggest needs. I don't understand how Matt Flynn, or anyone else, is going to succeed with those receivers and that offensive line.

* New Orleans Saints — It's hard to evaluate a team during such a tumultous offseason, with some league-imposed punishments still yet to come. But the Saints didn't have a first- or second-round draft choice, so they certainly can't be draft-weekend winners.

* Oakland Raiders — Still paying for Carson Palmer. Like New Orleans, they didn't have a pick until the third round. Palmer had better return to his 2005-07 form, or the Raiders will regret that trade for a long time.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:56 PM | Comments (0)

April 28, 2012

Foul Territory: Atomic Elbows and Super Bugs

* World Be Free (in 7 Games), or Forearm in the Forum, Peace of Ass, or Forward, March — Metta World Peace was suspended seven games by the NBA for a vicious elbow to the head of Oklahoma City's James Harden on Sunday. With the suspension, Commissioner David Stern unseated the Republic of North Korea as the greatest threat to World Peace.

* Mickey, Mickey, Why Ya' Buggin', or No Audible Sighs, or That's Mic'd Up — The New Orleans Saints denied a report alleging that general manager Mickey Loomis had his booth in the Superdome wired in order to listen to opposing coaches' radio communications. The news will likely result in yet another reason for Roger Goodell to "sound off."

* Smokey and the Bandits, This is Certainly Not the Kind of Escort Service to Which NFL Players Are Accustomed — San Francisco 49ers running back Brandon Jacobs was involved in a high-speed, police-escorted caravan to Atlantic City, with speeds reportedly reaching 100 miles per hour. Reportedly, it was the first time Jacobs has been cited for above-average speed.

* Pick a Winner, or Finally, Roger Goodell Made an Announcement That Didn't Involve the Saints — The Indianapolis Colts, as expected, made Stanford's Andrew Luck the No. 1 pick in Thursday's NFL Draft, while Robert Griffin III was chosen second by Washington. Griffin insisted there was no shame in going second to a quarterback chosen No. 1 by the Colts, an assertion vehemently denied by Ryan Leaf.

* Game "On," or Mega-Tron: Legacy — Calvin Johnson will appear on the cover of the "Madden NFL 13" video game after beating out Cam Newton in an online vote for the honor. Johnson said the "Madden Curse" doesn't worry him, and added that the only "cursing" in Detroit will be coming from the mouth of fiery head coach Jim Schwartz.

* Mustang Rally, or an Air Jordan Apparel Contract is Highly Unlikely — Larry Brown was introduced on Monday as Southern Methodist head basketball coach. The 71-year-old Brown said he was in it for the "long haul," despite a number of "Pony Express" jokes to the contrary.

* Let's Just Hope Payton Doesn't Teach Them Everything He Knows, or Ban-ner Year — New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton will help coach his 11-year-old son Connor's football team in Dallas as he serves his one-year suspension for the team's bounty scandal. No one was happier than Connor, who was thrilled at the potential to finally be paid an allowance. Payton made it clear he won't be paid, if for no other reason than to prevent Connor from having to answer the question, "What was the price on his head?"

Bulls#*t on Parade, Innocent Blood, or Juice on the Loose — Roger Clemens' lawyer Rusty Hardin, in the opening statements of Clemens' retrial on charges that he lied to Congress, claimed steroid evidence had been manipulated. When asked to comment on Hardin's interjections, Clemens not only perjured himself, he pissed himself.

* "Split" Decision, or Girl, Intercepted, or Pilar of Assault, or Stay Classy — Deion Sanders tweeted on Monday that his estranged wife Pilar had attacked him, and Sanders even posted pictures of he and his sons filling out police reports. Allegedly, Pilar tried to tackle Deion, but in true Sanders fashion, failed.

* The Jordan Fools, or These 'Cats Have More Lives Than Wins — The Charlotte Bobcats lost to the Knicks to finish the NBA season with a 7-59 mark, setting the record for the worst winning percentage in NBA history. The Bobcats finished with a .106 winning percentage, but will have a 25% chance of winning the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft Lottery, which is called "improvement" in owner Michael Jordan's vernacular.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:07 PM | Comments (0)

April 26, 2012

Queen City Quagmire

It's said that every young boy remembers his first baseball game. I don't. I know it must have been at Charleston, South Carolina's old College Park stadium where the Class A Charleston RiverDogs played their home games until 1996, but I can't remember the year or the experience.

I do, however, remember the very first professional basketball game I ever attended. It was on January 27, 1995 when the Charlotte Hornets hosted the New York Knicks. I was visiting my grandparents for the weekend when my uncle surprised me with Hornets tickets. I didn't care that he bought tickets in the next-to-last row of the 24,000-seat Charlotte Coliseum's upper level, because I was going watch my NBA heroes, Larry Johnson, Alonzo Mourning, and Muggsy Bogues, live and in person.

At the time, my 7-year-old self even thought the rest of the Hornets were something like the Carolinas' Beatles. In 1995, the Carolina Panthers (indisputably the Carolinas' most beloved pro team nowadays) were still six months from playing their first game, and the Whalers had yet to move from Hartford to become the Hurricanes. The attitude of Charlotteans toward the Hornets then was what I imagine Oklahoma City feels today about the Thunder: a rapidly-growing, somewhat under-appreciated city that was finally getting its due in the form of a quality pro sports franchise. For each of the Hornets' first 10 seasons, attendance averaged over 23,000 per game and the franchise won the attendance title for eight of those seasons.

It didn't matter that the Hornets never won more than 51 games or one playoff series in the mid-'90s, because they were our pro basketball team in an area of the country that had always loved basketball. There was no reason to think that by 1997, the Hornets would be entering their final five years in Charlotte.

George Shinn brought the expansion Hornets to Charlotte triumphantly and against all odds, but also took the team to New Orleans in a most disgraceful manner. In 1999, the supposed family man went on trial for sexual assault. He was acquitted in December of that year, but the man who read a prayer over the public address system before each home game admitted to multiple infidelities in his marriage. Afterwards, the rags-to-riches businessman had the hubris to demand Charlotte taxpayers fund a new arena for the Hornets, claiming that the barely-teenaged Charlotte Coliseum was outdated. Attendance fell dramatically, the residents of the Queen City refused to accede to Shinn's wishes at the ballot box, and the franchise was moved to New Orleans in 2002.

I eventually moved on from the Hornets. I moved with my family to the Dallas area around the time Shinn was acquitted. While I watched the Baron Davis and Jamal Mashburn-led teams in the playoffs in 2001 and 2002, it was clear the gig would soon be up. I changed my NBA allegiances to the Mavs, and haven't been disappointed since.

While the Hornets were in the process of preparing their move, David Stern promised an expansion franchise to Charlotte should the team be taken away. The commissioner kept his promise and Charlotte got a new arena anyway after city politicians raised a tax. The Bobcats debuted in 2004. In every subsequent visit to Charlotte I've had to visit family since the Bobcats have been around, I've seen no passion about the team. The Bobcats don't have 'Zo and Grandmama, they don't play in the Hive (which was imploded five years ago at the age of 19) and they aren't wearing the teal and purple. Everyone in Charlotte knows it and most everyone seems to be alright with ignoring the team.

Now, after eight years of incompetent leadership, moronic draft decisions, and embarrassing attendance, professional basketball in Charlotte has reached the ultimate nadir. Barring an unlikely win on Thursday night against New York, the Bobcats will go down as the worst NBA team of all-time.

It's not just that the Bobcats will almost surely end the season on a 23 -ame losing streak and win just 7 of 66 contests for an .106 winning percentage. For the whole season, Charlotte has been outscored by 13.9 points per game. The next worst point differential team for 2011-12 is Cleveland, outscored by "just" 6.8 points a game. While the Bobcats won't touch Dallas record from 1992-93 of a negative 15.2 scoring margin, one has to factor in that the league played faster in the early '90s, to the tune of five extra possessions a game.

There's been a lot of hot air sports chatter about whether or not this year's Kentucky team could beat Charlotte. I think almost all "college team X could beat crappy pro team Y" conjectures are inherently useless and wrong. This one is no exception. Even bad pros have the only real responsibility of playing basketball. If you choose to be cynical and say that the Kentucky players did as well, the Wildcats were still a team that only played six players for real minutes in big games. The pro team's depth would wear down Kentucky, especially if played under NBA rules with 12-minute quarters and a 24-second clock.

But what about professionals at levels just below the NBA? Take, for example, the Austin Toros of the D-League, who have players like Brad Wanamaker, Julian Wright, Luke Zeller, Ronald Murray, Justin Dentmon, and Terrance Woodbury and are currently in the NBDL Finals. Is that collection of bodies at a substantial disadvantage against Gerald Henderson, D.J. Augustin, Byron Mullens, Bismack Biyombo, Derrick Brown, Kemba Walker, and Tyrus Thomas? Perhaps, but one has to think that the D-League team could at least win a game or two in a best-of-seven series. There are also some pro teams in Europe, such as Barcelona and CSKA Moscow, that have quality international and American talent and could stand a good chance against the Bobcats.

A Basketball Prospectus piece by Kevin Pelton details the perfect storm that enabled the Bobcats' 2012 futility. After making the playoffs in 2010 under Larry Brown, Charlotte chose to, in essence, "bottom out" under new General Manager Rich Cho after missing on draft pick after draft pick for years. However, this season has to be beyond Cho's worst nightmare. Three veterans who were at least supposed to keep the current dumpster fire scenario from happening in Thomas, Boris Diaw, and Corey Maggette all played massively below expectations.

Conventional wisdom and basic logic says it can't get any worse for the Bobcats. I'm not sure myself or anyone else writing about Charlotte's futility is doing a great job of conveying how completely improbable losing 90% of your games in an NBA season. Yet the franchise has still not shown any reliable competence in drafting or trading (I'm not totally buying that rookies Walker and Biyombo are future stars). Despite being the worst team in the league by a wide, wide margin, Charlotte still has a 75% chance of not receiving the first pick in the draft and Anthony Davis.

Then there's the absentee ownership of Michael Jordan, whose legendary competitive fire and penchant for success have disappeared as he has become majority owner of the league's laughing stock. On Monday, as his team was on the wrong side of one of the season's most embarrassing results, he was in Chicago at a Blackhawks playoff game. As long as his current attitude and game plan towards the team continues, former Charlotte pro basketball fans such as myself will only be able to shake their head and remember what once was.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 6:56 PM | Comments (0)

April 25, 2012

Will the NHL's Dead Puck Era Return?

The NHL is nothing if not a game of Follow the Leader. The coaching systems of winning teams often dictates what other teams try to emulate, and coming out of this year's playoffs, the notion of a winning formula is about to change.

It wasn't too long ago that the league had come out of its lost season and lockout, only to ice a new product that emphasized speed. Teams took this formula and began to build strategies around puck possession — that is, developing scoring chances by holding on to the puck as long as possible, often through a seemingly never-ending down low cycle that wore out defenses.

Detroit did it. San Jose did it, as did Vancouver, and the formula produced success more often than not. But the NHL is nothing if not a counterpunch league, and any coaching scheme can eventually be solved.

The teams that have found success in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs aren't laden with big-name forwards with huge contracts, particularly in the West. Instead, most of the advancing teams could be fairly interchangeable — a bigger defenseman here, a more crafty forward there, but mostly similar in terms of makeup, and it's not just a hot goalie involved. These teams present what is almost a hybrid if the 1990s dead puck trap, combined with post-lockout speed. The result is a read and react system that can be as physical as it is stifling, with five players occupying a strict defensive system, but transitioning to a hard, pounding forecheck once the puck is gained. The teams that execute this system well have every player committed to defensive positioning, making it a nightmare for the opposition to get a shot on goal. And when a shot does make it through, rebounds are quickly cleared.

Defensive schemes can take above-average goalies and turn them into world beaters. Are Brian Elliot or Mike Smith really the second coming of Dominik Hasek or are they really just good goalies elevated by the system? There is a chance that either could become a consistent Vezina candidate, but we won't truly know until next season.

Teams that play a strict defensive system without an evolution in talent often have a limited shelf life. The reason for this is because these systems require absolute commitment and attention to detail to work, and when some players start straying from it — either intentionally or unintentionally — weaknesses become exposed. The Nashville Predators have managed to navigate this by drafting well and evolving over time — the team of Kimmo Timonen and Tomas Vokoun is now the team of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter. It's quite a feat to maintain a consistent level of success with such a defensive scheme, but in many cases, teams peak in 1-2 seasons, then begin to fall off.

The Boston Bruins may have started this trend, but now other teams have adapted it despite a lack of team depth. Does this mean a new dead puck era for the league, one where 2 goals wins a game? Not necessarily. While the NHL is indeed a copycat league, the competition committee is designed to prevent stagnation when it comes to impossible defenses. Between that and the ability for coaches to deconstruct and defeat systems, you probably won't see this style remain for more than a few seasons.

It's a double-edged sword. Local fans of successful teams relish in instant turnarounds but from an objective perspective, these teams tend to be boring to watch. And that's why you can net that the NHL will find a way to encourage defeating these systems, through officiating and tweaks to rules. Coming out of the lockout, the NHL put together a fast and exciting.product that organically grew and thrived. Any return to purely defensive hockey brings the risk of losing casual fans, which affects the bottom line.

Like all pro sports, the NHL is a business first and passion second. You can bet that this prioritization will prevent any prolonged return of the dead puck era.

Posted by Mike Chen at 9:07 PM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 8

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Greg Biffle — Biffle posted his sixth top-10 finish of the year with a fifth in the STP 400 at Kansas Motor Speedway. He maintained the lead in the Sprint Cup point standings, and now leads Martin Truex, Jr. by 15.

"Whereas I got a cowboy hat and a pair of six-shooters for winning at Texas," Biffle said, "Denny Hamlin received a pair of ruby red slippers, which I'm sure he tapped together and said 'There's no place like Homestead … to blow a points lead and hence the 2010 Sprint Cup title.'"

2. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex led 173 of 267 laps at Kansas, but lost the lead to Denny Hamlin with 31 to go and held on for second, earning his fifth consecutive top-10 finish. He jumped two places in the point standings to second, and trails Greg Biffle by 15.

"I made a few desperation moves to pass Hamlin at the end," Truex said. "But what better time to say 'banzai' than while driving a Toyota and attempting to pass another?

"I'm in negotiations to renew my contract with Michael Waltrip Racing. That means I get to sit at a table and talk numbers with Michael. Therein lies the secret to being around Michael — someone has to pay me to do it."

3. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson followed up his runner-up finish at Texas with a third in the STP 400 at Kansas, scoring his fourth top-five of the year. He improved one spot in the point standings to seventh, and now trails Greg Biffle by 37.

"In the Hendrick Motorsports garage," Johnson said, "there's a lot of talk about streaks. Hendrick has been sitting on 199 wins for awhile now. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has a 137-race winless streak. The way things are going, it's a toss-up as to who gets to 200 first."

"As you probably couldn't help but notice, the Lowe's No. 48 Chevy sported the 'Mountain Green' color. That was a color made popular by two 1960's iconic products, muscle cars and ugly toilets."

4. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished fourth in the STP 400, taking his fifth top-five result of the year. He is now third in the point standings, 17 behind Roush Fenway teammate Greg Biffle.

"After two cautions at Texas," Kenseth said, "there were only three at Kansas. That means, in both cases, that the winner's speed was above average, while the racing itself was below average. As such, electronic fuel injection is no longer the hot topic of discussion — instead, it's cruise control."

5. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Still seeking his first win in 136 races, Earnhardt came up short but finished with a solid seventh at Kansas. In eight races this year, he hasn't finished lower than 15th, and is now fourth in the point standings, 21 out of first.

"You probably heard me profess that I think I'm the best driver in NASCAR," Earnhardt said. "It remains to be seen who's more motivated by that statement — me, or the ten drivers that actually are better than me.

6. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin slipped by Martin Truex, Jr. with 31 laps to go and sailed to his second win of the year, taking the STP 400 at Kansas Motor Speedway. Hamlin improved one place to fifth in the point standings, 23 behind Greg Biffle.

"This No. 11 Fed Ex team has a ton of momentum," Hamlin said. "You could say we're like a 'freight' train. Let's just hope our 2011 troubles don't rear it heads, because we were much like a train then as well, in that it often took more than one engine to get anywhere."

7. Kevin Harvick — Harvick started second at Kansas and powered to a sixth-place finish, leading the charge for Richard Childress Racing. He is now sixth in the point standings, 25 out of first.

"The No. 29 Rheem Chevrolet was good," Harvick said, "but not good enough. We were anything but 'Rheem-arkable.' As wordplay goes, that one should be 'pun-ishable by death.

"But my disappointment with a sixth-place finish is a clear indication that I expect better from myself. I'm the ultimate 'expectant' father."

8. Carl Edwards — Edwards, in the No. 99 Aflac Ford, joined Roush Fenway teammates Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle in the top 10, with a ninth at Kansas, his fifth top-10 result of the year. Edwards is now ninth in the point standings, 61 out of first.

"Sunday was a strong day for the Roush Fenway collective," Edwards said. "All three of us in the top 10? That's the first time we've done anything together in a long time.

"I must say, it's tough for me to see myself behind Biffle and Kenseth in the point standings. Kenseth is sponsored by EcoBoost; what I need is an ego boost."

9. Tony Stewart — Stewart came home 13th at Kansas, the last car on the lead lap after a long day of handling issues. He is now eighth in the point standings, 47 out of first.

"That's two straight finishes outside the top 10," Stewart said. "Despite our troubles, it's no time to make any rash decisions, which should come as a relief to my crew chief, Steve Addington."

10. Kyle Busch — Busch finished 10th at Kansas as Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin won the STP 400. It was only Busch's third top-10 result of the year, but it season turnaround could be in order at Richmond, where Busch has three wins.

"Hamlin's making headlines," Busch said, "and, in what's is a complete mystery to me, for all the right reasons. I just haven't been the same this year. Joe Gibbs said he wouldn't mind seeing the 'old' Kyle Busch or the 'new' Kyle Busch, or, for that matter, 'any' Kyle Busch."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:38 PM | Comments (0)

April 24, 2012

The Best Coaches In NFL History

With the 2012 NFL Draft less than a week away, many fans and analysts are trying to predict the future. Let's save the forecasts for after players get matched up with teams, and instead take a spin into the past, ranking the greatest head coaches in NFL history. We'll do the top 15 in order, then round out the top 25 alphabetically.

1. Paul Brown
Cleveland Browns, 1946-62; Cincinnati Bengals, 1968-75
213-104-9 (.667), 7 championships

Paul Brown is the father of modern professional football. He was the first Modern Era coach to racially integrate his squad, the first coach to regularly call plays for his offense, and the first to hold classroom practice sessions. The list goes on (modern pass-blocking techniques and the quarterback "pocket") and on (year-round coaching staffs and positional coaches) and on.

Brown not only modernized the game, he also tutored a generation of great coaches. Hall of Famer Weeb Ewbank was Brown's assistant both at Great Lakes Naval Station and with Cleveland. So was Blanton Collier, who met Brown in the navy and was an assistant on the Browns before serving as head coach when they won an NFL Championship in 1964. Hall of Famer Bud Grant and four-time Super Bowl winner Chuck Noll played for Brown. All-time wins leader Don Shula played for Brown and Ewbank, and coached for Collier. Bill Walsh was an assistant to Brown with the Bengals. Paul Brown's coaching tree is the greatest in history.

Brown was a success at every level. His team at Washington High School went 80–8–2, won six straight Ohio poll football championships, and once went an entire season without punting. He led the Ohio State Buckeyes to their first-ever national championship and was hugely successful at Naval Station Great Lakes. Brown's teams went 47-4-3 in the AAFC and won all four league championships. After the merger with the NFL, the Browns made six straight championship appearances, including three NFL titles.

Including the four years the Browns played in the AAFC, Paul Brown is one of only five head coaches with at least 200 regular-season wins, and one of only six with twice as many victories as defeats (min. 100 wins). He also holds the record for most championships (7) of any head coach in the history of the NFL, AFL, and AAFC. Brown, Shula, and George Halas are the only coaches in history more than 100 games over .500, and only Shula and Tom Landry made the playoffs more times as head coach.

2. George Halas
Chicago Bears, 1920-67
318-148-31 (.671), 6 championships

Halas didn't really coach the Bears for 48 seasons. As a player, coach, and owner, this titan of NFL history occasionally stepped away from coaching to focus on the business side of things. When he was on the sidelines, the Bears were invariably successful. Halas coached the team in four separate 10-year stints. The chart below shows his regular-season record and number of championships in each decade.

No coach in history has so successfully adapted to (and shaped) a rapidly changing sport; each time Halas ran the Bears, the team was well over .500 and won a championship, including an official designation as league champion in 1921, when there was no championship game, but the 9-1-1 Staleys (they became the Bears in '22) had the league's best record. Halas' 318 wins stood as the career record for almost 30 years after his retirement.

3. Tom Landry
Dallas Cowboys, 1960-88
250-162-6 (.605), 2 championships

In evaluating coaches, I'm not just looking at championships or longevity, though obviously those are major factors. In my mind, coaches establish greatness through their contributions to the game: innovations, new strategies and practice methods, teaching and the legacy built through a coaching tree.

Tom Landry was a phenomenally successful head coach, whose teams went 20 years in a row without a losing season (1966-85). The Cowboys played in the NFL Championship Game in 1966, 1967, 1970, 1971, 1975, 1977, and 1978. They are the only team in history to make five Super Bowls in 10 years, and Landry holds the all-time record for postseason wins as HC (20). His five post-merger conference championships are also a record, since tied by Don Shula and Bill Belichick.

What elevates Landry over other successful coaches are his strategic contributions and innovations. As a player and assistant coach, Landry helped develop the "Umbrella Defense" that became the basis for today's 4-3. He also introduced or revolutionized situational substitution, movement before the snap, and the shotgun formation. Future Super Bowl winner Mike Ditka played and coached for Landry, as did four-time conference champion and 190-game winner Dan Reeves.

4. Bill Belichick
Cleveland Browns, 1991-95; New England Patriots, 2000-present
175-97 (.643), 3 championships

I know this won't sit well with some people. Bill Belichick is not the most likeable guy in the world, and some fans still perceive him as a cheater because of the Spygate controversy five years ago. But Belichick is far and away the most successful coach of his generation, distinguished by both regular-season and postseason triumphs. His consistency in the free agency era is unmatched, and his coaching tree (while still in flux) is among the grandest of any contemporary HC.

Belichick's .643 winning percentage is among the highest in history, trailing only Tony Dungy (.668) among recent head coaches. Belichick has led the Patriots to 10 seasons of double-digit wins, including nine in a row. Where Belichick stands out from Dungy — and almost everyone else in history — is in the postseason.

From 2001-04, Belichick broke Vince Lombardi's record for longest postseason winning streak, taking 10 in a row. His .714 career postseason winning percentage is tied (with Bill Walsh) for third-best in history among those with at least 10 postseason games as head coach. He is also one of only three HCs to appear in five Super Bowls, and his three Super Bowls rings are the most by any coach in 20 years (Joe Gibbs) and tied for second-best in history. That kind of sustained success in the free agency era is stunning. Paul Brown, Don Shula, and Belichick are the only men to win Coach of the Year three times.

5. Bill Walsh
San Francisco 49ers, 1979-88
92-59-1 (.609), 3 championships

Bill Walsh did not have a long head coaching career, just 10 seasons, and two of them strike-shortened. The 49ers remained dominant after his retirement, going 98-30 (.766) and winning two Super Bowls under Walsh's successor, George Seifert. Walsh is listed here because of his extraordinary success in a brief career (3 Super Bowls, 10-4 postseason record, first 15-win regular season in NFL history) and because of his enormous influence on the game.

Walsh is arguably the most influential offensive coach in the history of football, certainly the most influential of the last 30 years. Every team in the NFL today either runs some variation on, or at least borrows from Walsh's horizontal short-passing system, often referred to as the West Coast Offense. Walsh designed the system for Virgil Carter in Cincinnati, but it was perfected by Joe Montana and Steve Young in San Francisco.

6. Vince Lombardi
Green Bay Packers, 1959-67; Washington Redskins, 1969
96-34-6 (.739), 5 championships

This is five spots lower than he is usually ranked. I have great respect for Vince Lombardi, and I believe listing him in the top six is a sign of that respect, but it is a shame that so many people blindly name Lombardi as the greatest coach in history. He won five championships, more than almost everyone, and from 1965-67 he won three straight titles, the only head coach to do so in the NFL. He was 9-1 in the postseason, and his .900 winning percentage is by far the best in history. Those are extraordinary accomplishments, and Lombardi deserves immense credit for them. But he didn't do anything else.

Lombardi didn't have a long career. He's 37th all-time in wins, 11 behind Norv Turner. Lombardi didn't introduce radical new strategies; he just executed the old ones better than anybody else. That produced a lot of wins, but it didn't revolutionize the game. Lombardi didn't leave behind a great coaching tree. Forrest Gregg went on to coach in Super Bowl XVI, but Lombardi wasn't a teacher the way Paul Brown and Tom Landry were.

What Lombardi has are eight tremendous seasons, but lots of coaches had eight or nine or ten great seasons in a row. Paul Brown from 1946-55 was 105-17-4 (.849) with 7 championships. Tom Landry from 1968-78 was 117-38-1 (.753) with 5 NFC championships. George Halas from 1933-42 was 88-24-4 (.776) and won three championships. Bill Belichick from 2001-11 was 134-42 (.761) and won three Super Bowls. Bill Walsh from 1981-88 was 94-39-1 (.705) with three Super Bowls. Every great coach has a six or seven or eleven-year run like Lombardi's.

But for most coaches, those records fade. The players retire, the assistants get new jobs, people get traded or injured or grow old. Lombardi never had to win without Bart Starr and Ray Nitschke and Forrest Gregg. Maybe he would have; Washington in 1969 went 7-5-2, its best record in 14 years. But Lombardi died, and it was George Allen who led Washington to the Super Bowl in 1972. Vince Lombardi was one of the finest coaches in the history of professional football, but I don't see how you rank him ahead of someone like Brown or Halas, who were just as successful in their primes, but sustained that success for decades.

7. Don Shula
Baltimore Colts, 1963-69; Miami Dolphins, 1970-95
328-156-6 (.676), 2 championships

Another coach usually rated higher than this. I don't know how many fans remember it these days, but Shula used to have a reputation as a guy who couldn't win the big one. The Colts were favored to win the 1964 NFL Championship Game against Cleveland. They got shut out, 27-0. They were huge favorites to win Super Bowl III, a team that was already regarded by many as the greatest in history. They lost to Joe Namath and the Jets. Shula went to Miami, and the '71 Dolphins became the first team in Super Bowl history not to score a touchdown. The undefeated '72 Dolphins were underdogs in Super Bowl VII, partly because of Shula's reputation.

From 1972-73, the Dolphins had two of the greatest teams in history, winning back-to-back Super Bowls. That saved Shula's legacy, but he went on to lose two more Super Bowls, and he could never get past Marv Levy's Bills in the early '90s, when Dan Marino and the Dolphins always seemed to come in second.

Shula won more games than any other coach in history. He coached in more Super Bowls than anyone else. He had a terrific winning percentage, one of the best ever. And he's 2nd all-time in postseason victories, trailing only Landry. But Shula's postseason record was 19-17. This is a coach who had three Hall of Fame quarterbacks — Johnny Unitas, Bob Griese, and Dan Marino — and only won two titles. As with Lombardi, I'm not saying Shula was a bad coach. He was a great coach. But how do you put him on the same level as someone who consistently turned talent into championships?

8. Joe Gibbs
Washington Redskins, 1981-92, 2004-07
154-94 (.621), 3 championships

Joe Gibbs turned talent into championships. In fact, he turned marginal talent into championships. Gibbs famously won Super Bowls with three different quarterbacks, none of them Hall of Famers: Joe Theismann, Doug Williams, and Mark Rypien. Gibbs was 17-7 in the playoffs; his .708 postseason winning percentage is the 5th-best in history (min. 10 games). His numbers were even better before Daniel Snyder lured him out of retirement in 2004: 124-60 (.674) in the regular season and a remarkable 16-5 in the postseason (.762), second only to Lombardi in postseason winning percentage.

Gibbs was particularly noteworthy for his creativity and adaptability on offense. When Lawrence Taylor was wrecking the NFC East, Gibbs re-worked two tight ends to contain the madness. In the early '80s, he won with John Riggins and a power running game. In the late '80s and early '90s, he won with Art Monk, Gary Clark, and a top-notch passing attack. In the 2000s, he led Washington to its only two playoff appearances of the Snyder Era*, once again using multiple QBs: Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, and Todd Collins.

*1999 doesn't count as the Snyder Era. He owned the team, but he hadn't had a chance to ruin it yet.

9. Curly Lambeau
Green Bay Packers, 1921-49; Chicago Cardinals, 1950-51; Washington Redskins, 1952-53
226-132-22 (.624), 6 championships

Almost 60 years after his retirement, Earl "Curly" Lambeau still has the fourth-most coaching victories in history. His six NFL championships are more than Vince Lombardi, more than Chuck Noll, more than Bill Walsh and Don Shula put together, or Bill Belichick and Bill Parcells put together. Lambeau emphasized the passing game before passing was considered a legitimate strategy, and his teams and players set records that stood for decades.

10. Chuck Noll
Pittsburgh Steelers, 1969-91
193-148-11 (.580), 4 championships

There are three coaches in the top 10 who nonetheless are ranked much lower here than on most other lists. Vince Lombardi and Don Shula are usually cited as the two greatest coaches ever, and Chuck Noll, the only head coach to win four Super Bowls, is also typically rated near the top of the list. Noll was a great evaluator of talent, and the Steelers in the mid-70s had an incredible roster, yielding nine future Hall of Famers. Purely as a coach, though, I don't believe it's clear that Noll excelled the way his reputation, and those four rings, suggest.

Noll is negatively distinguished from the rest of the top 10 by his winning percentage, well below .600. From 1972-79, the Steelers were 88-27-1. He won when he had great players. But in Noll's other 15 seasons, Pittsburgh was just 105-121. His teams were great for eight years, and below average for most of the other 15. I actually regard 10th as a generous ranking.

I'll repeat this one last time, to be sure there are no misunderstandings. When I point out the relative weaknesses of legendary coaches like Lombardi and Shula and Noll, it's not to disparage these exceptional coaches. I'm just trying to explain why I don't believe their accomplishments quite live up to their respective reputations, but I'd never want to give anyone the impression that they weren't great coaches.

11. George Allen
Los Angeles Rams, 1966-70; Washington Redskins, 1971-77
116-47-5 (.705), no championships

The first listed coach not to win a championship, Allen makes this list for his remarkable winning percentage, third-best in history (min. 100 games), and his contributions to strategy and organizational philosophy. Allen was the first head coach really obsessed with special teams. Allen hired an assistant named Dick Vermeil, and made him the first special teams coach in history. When Vermeil was hired away, Allen replaced him with Marv Levy.

You hear stories today about coaches sleeping at the office, stories meant to illustrate their dedication. But no one can match George Allen, who reportedly liked to eat spaghetti because it was easy to chew and he could continue concentrating on football. Allen was sometimes derided for being too conservative. Sonny Jurgensen hated him, and Allen's teams seldom replicated their regular-season success in the playoffs, but Allen's attention to detail, gift for defensive strategy, and ability to get the most out of veteran players set him apart. As a defensive mind, Allen oversaw the 1963 Bears, the Fearsome Foursome, and the Over-the-Hill-Gang, building great defenses with three different teams.

12. Sid Gillman
Los Angeles Rams, 1955-59; Los Angeles/San Diego Chargers, 1960-69, 71; Houston Oilers, 1973-74
122-99-7 (.550), 1 championship

Sid Gillman was a perfect fit for the American Football League. An offensive mastermind and devotee of aerial fireworks, Gillman lit up AFL scoreboards with Jack Kemp, Tobin Rote, and John Hadl, reaching the league championship game with all three. Gillman's greatest legacy involves his influence on the modern passing game and his astonishing coaching tree.

Gillman's teams did not always have great records. From 1960-65, the Chargers made five championship appearances in six seasons, but Gillman also coached the 2-10 '59 Rams, stayed with the Chargers a bit too long, and took over the Oilers when they were little more than misery in helmets and cleats. The 1973 Oilers opened 0-5 and fired Bill Peterson in midseason. Gillman led the team to its only win (1-8), and the team improved to 7-7 the next year, Gillman's last as a head coach in the NFL.

13. Hank Stram
Dallas Texans / Kansas City Chiefs, 1960-74; New Orleans Saints, 1976-77
131-97-10 (.571), 2 championships

A point of clarification becomes necessary with this entry. Hank Stram's teams won three AFL championships, but I've listed him above with two. The first Super Bowl was played following the 1966 season, and from that time on, most fans (myself included) only consider the Super Bowl winner to be a true champion. Gillman and Stram, back to back on the list, were the only men to serve as head coaches for every season of the AFL's existence. Their longevity corresponded to success: the Texans/Chiefs had the best record in AFL history (87-48-5), while the Chargers were 2nd-best (86-48-6).

In 1969, many fans remained convinced that the AFL was a second-class league, and the Jets' Super Bowl III victory a fluke. Stram's Chiefs, haunted by a baseless gambling scandal allegedly involving quarterback Len Dawson, dominated the NFL-champion Vikings and sent the AFL into the merger an even 2-2. Stram's defense made an immediate impact in the post-merger NFL, with stars such as Bobby Bell dominating the new league just as convincingly as they had the old one.

14. John Madden
Oakland Raiders, 1969-78
103-32-7 (.750), 1 championship

A consensus seems to have developed in recent years placing Madden among the top 10 coaches in history. Madden has the highest regular-season winning percentage in NFL history, he's a Super Bowl champion, he was the youngest coach to reach 100 wins, and he's 71 games over .500 for his career. Of course he should be top-10!

The problem is that Madden's teams tended to underachieve in the postseason. His teams were loaded with talent, and they proved it in the regular season, but when the playoffs rolled around, Madden's Raiders only won their own conference once. Altogether, his teams had a horrific record of 1-6 in AFL/AFC Championship Games. Madden was elected to the Hall of Fame as a Senior Candidate in 2006, almost 30 years after his retirement. I'm glad he's in, but I think the combination of his very high public profile as an announcer and video game franchise, combined with that one magic stat — highest winning percentage — have led some fans to deify Madden in a way his record doesn't merit.

15. Steve Owen
New York Giants, 1930-53
153-100-17 (.653), 2 championships

Other than Giants fans, most people don't remember Steve Owen these days. He was one of only 16 coaches to win 150 regular season games, and one of the few to win multiple championships. Under Owen's leadership, the Giants played in six of the first nine NFL Championship Games. If Owen's longevity and record suggest his greatness, his strategic contributions and coaching tree cement it. Owen helped develop the offensive "A Formation" and the defensive "Umbrella Defense." His legacy also includes turning over the Giants to former assistant Jim Lee Howell, whose offensive and defensive coordinators were Vince Lombardi and Tom Landry, respectively.

From here, we'll just go alphabetically:

Don Coryell
St. Louis Cardinals, 1973-77; San Diego Chargers, 1978-86
111-83-1 (.572), no championships

Although he is still the winningest coach in Cardinal history, Coryell is best remembered as the mastermind behind the Charger offenses of the early 1980s. From 1979-82, San Diego led the NFL in passing offense every season, a unique accomplishment. Coryell is listed here less for his 100 wins and success with two different teams than for his strategic influence on the modern passing game. Coryell is not in the Hall of Fame, but he probably should be.

Tony Dungy
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1996-2001; Indianapolis Colts, 2002-08
139-69 (.668), 1 championship

I always felt like Tony Dungy's Colts teams underachieved in the postseason, and it seemed to be largely Dungy's fault. His strategy of resting the team before the playoffs never worked, appearing to throw his team out of synch, and he often got out-coached by Bill Belichick. But there's no denying Dungy's many positive accomplishments. The Buccaneers went 6-10 in Dungy's rookie season at the helm, and in 12 more years as a head coach, he never had another losing season. Dungy made the Bucs a sustained powerhouse for the first time in franchise history.

Dungy's accomplishments with the Colts are even more remarkable, including eight straight seasons of double-digit wins, the last seven all 12-4 or better. It would be naïve to imagine that Dungy didn't face some extra challenges because of his race, but he never tried to use that as an excuse when his team fell short. Dungy was the first black coach to win a Super Bowl, and really the first to draw widespread admiration. He also left behind a strong legacy of assistants tutored by himself and Monte Kiffin, many of whom have gone on to head coaching positions.

Weeb Ewbank
Baltimore Colts, 1954-62; New York Jets, 1963-73
130-129-7 (.502), 3 championships

Wilbur "Weeb" Ewbank has by far the worst winning percentage of any coach listed here, but he won three championships with two different teams. The Jets went a combined 21-7 from 1968-69, but they were 71-77-6 in Ewbank's other nine seasons. The Colts were rotten when Ewbank took over, and he can't be blamed for that, but the team stagnated after its championship victories in 1958-59, rebounding when Ewbank was replaced by Don Shula. Like many members of Paul Brown's coaching tree, Ewbank left his own impressive legacy, including assistants like Chuck Knox and Buddy Ryan.

Ray Flaherty
Boston/Washington Redskins, 1936-42; New York Yankees, 1946-48; Chicago Hornets, 1949
80-37-5 (.676), 2 championships

In seven seasons, Flaherty led the Redskins to four championship appearances, including two wins. Flaherty ruined the Bears' perfect season in 1942. Chicago had gone 11-0 and had routed Washington (73-0) in the championship game two years earlier. Before the game, Flaherty wrote "73-0" in large figures on the chalkboard. What else needed to be said? Washington won the game and prevented Chicago from completing the first perfect season in NFL history. Later, Flaherty coached the AAFC's New York Yankees, perpetual runners-up to Paul Brown's Cleveland dynasty, and the 2nd-best team in the All-America Football Conference.

Bud Grant
Minnesota Vikings, 1967-83, 85
158-96-5 (.620), no championships

Always a bridesmaid, never a bride. Harry Grant, Jr., presided over some of the most dominant teams in history and led the Vikings to four Super Bowls, but always came up short in the big game. Grant is among the all-time top 20 in both wins and winning percentage (min. 100 games). Grant is a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame in Canton, and also the Canadian Football Hall of Fame, having led the CFL's Winnipeg Blue Bombers to four Grey Cups in the '50s and '60s.

Marv Levy
Kansas City Chiefs, 1978-82; Buffalo Bills, 1986-96
143-112 (.561), no championships

Like Grant, Levy was a four-time Super Bowl loser, a coach who could win in the regular season and could win in the playoffs, but never put everything together on the sport's biggest stage. And like Grant, he did find success in Canada, winning two Grey Cups with the Montreal Alouettes. Levy's record in the (NFL) playoffs actually was exceptional (11-4), and even including the Super Bowl losses he's well over .500. After losing to the Bengals in the 1988 AFC Championship Game, Levy adapted Sam Wyche's no-huddle offense into the K-Gun, and Buffalo led the AFC in scoring for the next four years in a row.

Greasy Neale
Philadelphia Eagles, 1941-50
63-43-5 (.590), 2 championships

Earle "Greasy" Neale was among the foremost defensive coaches in history, the mind behind the "Eagle Defense" that grew into the modern 3-4. The Eagle Defense was born to neutralize the dominant offensive T-Formation, and it worked. Philadelphia won the 1948 and 1949 NFL Championship Games by shutout, 7-0 and 14-0.

Neale's record in a short coaching career, like Bill Walsh's, doesn't accurately reflect his success. Neale took over a team that had gone a combined 2-19-1 in the two years before he was hired as HC, and struggled his first two seasons to improve the group with wartime talent. Following a one-year merger with Pittsburgh, Neale led his team to a 54-22-3 record (.703) and three straight championship appearances, including two titles.

Bill Parcells
New York Giants, 1983-90; New England Patriots, 1993-96; New York Jets, 1997-99; Dallas Cowboys, 2003-06
172-130-1 (.569), 2 championships

I'm sure some fans think it's crazy not to have Parcells in the top 15, maybe even the top 10. Honestly, it's hard to evaluate someone who switches teams every three or four years. Parcells reached conference championship games with the Giants, Patriots, and Jets, and that obviously says something positive about his coaching, but after 1990, his teams have never reached the highest level, and the incredible success of his former defensive coordinator Bill Belichick has deflected some of the coaching staff's credit away from Parcells himself.

Parcells' .569 career winning percentage is good, but it's nothing special, ranking below the career marks of Wade Phillips (.573), who is on nobody's list of historically great coaches, and Don Coryell (.572), whose good-but-not-great record is cited as the counter-argument for a Hall of Fame case built on his massive strategic innovations. Parcells has developed great players and great coaches, and he's made the playoffs with teams that were bad before he got there. But I don't see how you rank him ahead of his old assistant Belichick, and I don't see how you put him ahead of contemporaries like Bill Walsh and Joe Gibbs. A great coach, yes. Top-25, yes. Top-10? I don't believe so.

Marty Schottenheimer
Cleveland Browns, 1984-88; Kansas City Chiefs, 1989-98; Washington Redskins, 2001; San Diego Chargers, 2002-06
200-126-1 (.613), no championships

A legendary postseason underachiever, Schottenheimer nonetheless ranks among the most accomplished coaches in history. He is one of only six with 200 career regular-season wins, and his .613 winning percentage is much higher than many celebrated coaches. Only Don Shula, Tom Landry, and Paul Brown led their teams to more postseason appearances than Schottenheimer.

You don't compile a 5-13 postseason résumé without some truth to the idea that you struggle in the playoffs, but some of Schottenheimer's postseason failures may have been exaggerated. The '86 Browns lost on a crazy two-minute drill. The '87 Browns lost on a freak fumble at the goal line. The '06 Chargers had a million things go wrong, and most of them weren't Marty's fault. Every coach has things go wrong, and the great ones often overcome them, but change a couple fluke bounces, and Schottenheimer's coaching record and reputation might be a lot different.

Marty was also a major influence on three Super Bowl-winning head coaches: Bill Cowher, Tony Dungy, and Mike McCarthy.

George Seifert
San Francisco 49ers, 1989-96; Carolina Panthers, 1999-2001
114-62 (.648), 2 championships

Almost no one lists George Seifert among the great coaches in history any more, I suppose because of his disastrous time with the Panthers (16-32). But I don't understand how people brush off his accomplishments with the 49ers. Some coaches really have piggy-backed on the success of their predecessors, "won with someone else's team," as we say. Barry Switzer did that in 1995. Bill Callahan did in 2002. Jim Caldwell did in 2009. Don McCafferty in 1970, and so on. George Seifert had eight consecutive seasons of double-digit wins and won a Super Bowl six years after Bill Walsh retired.

Seifert's great teams in the '90s, which would have made the Super Bowl every year in the AFC, didn't have Joe Montana or Roger Craig or Ronnie Lott. Seifert took a distinct group of players and made them perennial contenders. There was still a lot of talent on those teams, but it takes a pretty good coach to reach five NFC Championship Games in six years and win two Super Bowls.

Obviously, there are some very fine coaches who aren't listed here. Dan Reeves led his teams to four Super Bowls. Mike Holmgren coached in three Super Bowls and briefly had a coaching tree that made up about a quarter of the NFL. Tom Coughlin and Andy Reid are still active and could easily force their ways onto this list by the same time next year. Bill Cowher, Tom Flores, Guy Chamberlin, Chuck Knox ... it's harder to tell the difference between 25th and 26th than it is to draw distinctions at the top of the list. Everyone agrees that Brown and Halas and Lombardi and Shula and Gibbs are among the greatest coaches in history.

Your opinions, of course, are welcome in the comments, but please remember to justify your position. If you believe Parcells should be higher, or it's crazy to omit Holmgren and Cowher, or whatever else, please don't forget to say why. Arguing about something like the greatest coaches in history is fun, but not when people just shout, "You're wrong!" at each other. I've given this list a lot of consideration.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:13 PM | Comments (7)

MLB's Desire For Cuban Players Overshadowed

"This is a good baseball town, and not to worry, you're playing in front of the greatest baseball fans in the world." None other than Cuban dictator Fidel Castro made that remark on March 28, 1999 at Estadio Latinoamericano in Havana, Cuba.

If one did not know better, such a quote could have been attributed to any number of MLB team owners or the commissioner of MLB himself, Bud Selig.

And as regards Cuban/U.S. relations, they have been notable in recent headlines due to one Ozzie Guillen, current Miami Marlins manager and former manager of the 2005 World Series champion Chicago White Sox. He stirred things up a few weeks back when he made the now infamous quote, "I love Fidel." It was cited at the very beginning of the April 9, 2012 Time Magazine article titled "Big Fish" by Sean Gregory.

But it should come as no news-flash to fans of MLB and to media-types that Ozzie Guillen is a well-known live wire and has been throughout his MLB managerial career. He is a gaffe-in-waiting.

Just the same, Ozzie is often invited to partake in MLB's postseason coverage as a live commentator for various broadcast outlets, hired precisely to offer his opinions and to add to game analysis.

Yet Ozzie Guillen is simultaneously admired and excoriated, often by the media and MLB, or the folks who just happen to employ him. And ironically, he sometimes represents both entities at the same time and with their blessings.

Wind him up and watch what the serial "blabber mouth" might say. And both the media and MLB need a proverbial kick in their collective behinds for their then unchallenged and self-righteous tones when they disapprove of some of Ozzie's schtick.

But Ozzie also can conveniently serve as a distraction. No better example could be made than by the actions or inactions of the media itself. Rather than addressing the relationship between MLB and its interest in Cuba's national team players, it focuses on a guy who is a lightning rod for sound bites.

Incidentally, the Showtime cable network will feature Ozzie Guillen and the Miami Marlins in "The Franchise," to air as a reality show starting this July. Will MLB pull the plug on that?

As recently as January 2011, the United States Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which presides over the Cuban Assets Control Regulations (CACR), slightly revised some of its regulations. The CACR are central to the Cuban/U.S. embargo and the relevant sanctions by the U.S. government on commerce, trade, and residential status as it regards Cuba as well as honoring Cuba's own decrees.

The revisions included changes in transactions and licensing authorizations regarding Cuban nationals who take up permanent residence in a county outside of Cuba and outside of the U.S. while seeking U.S. residency.

As this applies to MLB, it changes the way in which it does business with such Cuban defectors. Instead of defectors having to establish residency in the U.S., which could take months after seeking asylum, and then applying for a license through the OFAC to receive "unblocked" status in order to do business with MLB, it now offers an alternative.

Under the new rules, once a Cuban national establishes permanent residence in a country outside of the U.S., he is automatically granted "unblocked" status. Much to the chagrin of MLB, the "unblocked" status loophole is a way for such players and by extension their agents, to avoid the compulsory MLB amateur draft and may become free agents.

Should a Cuban defector choose asylum in the U.S. first and then establish U.S. residency, he may not be granted free agency and must enter the MLB draft. Therefore it is far more lucrative for the Cuban national to contract as a free agent and it allows him to choose the highest bidder.

So for all of his goodwill toward Cuba, as Bud Selig visited with Castro the week of the Home-and-Home Series exhibition game that took place on that March 28th day in 1999, it would not be surprising if he were to have been taken aback by these latest measures by the Department of Treasury, which work against MLB's balance sheets.

And should MLB tamper or try to negotiate with such players while they are pending permanent residency in a foreign country, it could run afoul of federal law. Such has been rumored that Chicago Cubs representatives have tried to enter negotiations with Cuban player Jorge Soler, currently residing in the Dominican Republic, but not yet a permanent resident of that country.

And little did MLB expect that their most likely intent to find cheap labor, all those years ago, would be undermined by the very agencies that supposedly hitched their wagons to Selig and Co.

In fact, it was Peter Angelos, owner of the Baltimore Orioles, who accompanied Selig on that mission to Havana in 1999, and was quoted at that time saying of Castro, "He's the principal political person in his government. If he invites you to sit with him at the ballgame, good manners would dictate that you accept."

And MLB commissioner Selig waxed poetic, saying, "This is part of a sports and cultural exchange that our State Department wanted us to do. It was logical that it be the linchpin of that exchange."

Both were referring to their delegation which celebrated the supposed historic exhibition series between the Cuban All-Stars, comprised of members of the Cuban national team and the then Baltimore Orioles. A game had not been played against an American team in Cuba since 1959 until that date.

MLB felt that is was on the precipice of breaking open Cuban/U.S. relations through MLB. But before we all start strumming Cumbaya, do not assume that MLB was on a mission to spread democracy and world peace. Rather, it was on its own fact-finding mission to find its own diamonds in the rough for its leagues.

And as multi-million dollar salaries are now routinely dangled before potential MLB players from Cuba, the primary risks of life, limb, and separation from family rests with the Cuban defector himself, not MLB.

Over the past 20 years, MLB teams, initially with the Los Angeles Dodgers, have all set up shop in the Dominican Republic and/or Venezuela, whereby baseball academies have become multi-million dollar factories.

The idea is to pick potential big league talent, which is mined and molded into shape by developing baseball fundamentals in Latino youth. With room and board and professional instruction, including classes in English, the MLB teams are banking on that some of these kids, as proven for decades now, will come to America, but will necessarily come cheap, as part of its criteria.

And sadly these third world youth actually have a leg up on our African-American boys, who have left baseball in droves in the past four decades. In fact, African-Americans enjoyed a 17.5% participation rate in MLB in 1959; only 12 years after Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier, which is more than double than what it is today.

No mystery. MLB no longer courts African-American boys. It is too easy for it to say they have other interests.

No problem, for the foreign Latin national is the gift that keeps on giving. And as long as there remains no world draft, where the age requirements are on a level playing field, do not expect things to change, either. After all, a boy in the Dominican Republic or Venezuela, for example, can enter a minor league contract at age 16. American players must wait to age 18 and enter the draft.

But MLB has an insatiable appetite for this young crop of uninformed and naïve Latino talent. And it will not be satisfied until it has thoroughly strip-mined every last iota of talent, as cheaply as it possibly can.

MLB was most likely hoping that the initial trip in 1999 would open the floodgates for a future one-way exchange of talent between the U.S. and Cuba, given that MLB had even footed the bill to renovate the Estadio Latinoamericano prior to the March 28, 1999 game. It was in a state of severe disrepair.

And later that spring, on May 5, 1999, the Cuban All-Stars, with as few potential defectors in tow, played the Orioles again, but in Camden Yards, Baltimore; thus the series name Home-and-Home.

There also has been speculation throughout the media since the last World Baseball Classic (WBA) in 2009 that a potential 2013 or 2017 WBC could use that same stadium in Havana as a host sight. But certainly that would be a logistical nightmare, at the very least for broadcasting purposes, at this point.

So the questions remain: will MLB continue to pursue Cuba with the façade of advancing Cuban/U.S. relations? Will it do so at the risk of alienating Cuban-American fans, much like Ozzie did? And if so, does MLB really care other than to offer lip service as it routinely does on many issues?

MLB is not the United Nations (U.N.) of sport, but rather a $7–8 billion private industry that still enjoys all anti-trust law exemptions — more than any other professional sports league.

And for every El Duque Hernandez, Livan Hernandez, Kendry Morales, Aroldis Chapman, Yoenis Cespedes, amongst several others who have been granted multi-million dollar contracts in more recent memory, MLB must address the fact that talent also requires development in the U.S.; not the lack of it as in the African-American community.

And if a Cuban national does not make it to the big leagues, then what will become of him, isolated permanently from his family and supports systems in a foreign land?

One can only hope that one day MLB will not solely rely upon the almighty dollar to feel right about its decisions, but also will do right, on behalf of not only American baseball community, but for the Latin American community, rather than just bleeding its talent dry. And that is what being a good ambassador is all about.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 12:34 PM | Comments (0)

April 23, 2012

SMU's Gamble on Larry Brown

SMU is taking a unique gamble.

The Mustang program has been a financially loaded mid-major for years, still struggling to reach the BCS level following the aftermath of the death penalty that hit their football program. Athletic director Steve Orsini, deciding it was time to flex the financial muscles, lured June Jones away from Hawaii, and save a messy, near-exodus to Arizona State, Jones has been nothing but a positive for SMU.

Orsini decided to go the same route for the long struggling Mustang hoops program, taking a chance on the king of vagabond coaches. For Larry Brown, SMU is his 13th, and likely final stop in a wild, but great career.

However, Brown is 71, and with his flirtation with the Portland Trail Blazers for their general manager position having occurred right around the same time, it's easy to wonder if Brown will be able to make the impact on SMU basketball that Orsini really wants.

Like Brown, June Jones was an established head coach at the college and pro ranks. However, it certainly appears Jones still has a lot more years left in him than Brown. Jones also brings with him a style of offense that works for the Mustangs. Although deep in talent-rich Texas, SMU continuously has to fight for recruits with their old SWC foes, along with the Oklahoma schools and SEC schools such as LSU, Arkansas, and now Missouri. Jones and his high-powered passing attack gives the Mustangs a chance to steal some great talent in their own backyard.

Brown will struggle a bit in this aspect. Granted, the parity in college basketball is greater and the talent is deep enough in Texas to ensure every school recruiting the state is going to get some talent. But, with SMU's entry to the Big East, they've opened one of basketball's toughest leagues to invade Dallas like never before. Add to it that Brown doesn't have a seriously defined system, coupled with recruits questioning just how long he'll stay and the gamble on Brown is larger than many think, despite the consensus that he is a fantastic basketball coach.

The real question for SMU will be if current Illinois State coach Tim Jankovich accepts the "coach-in-waiting" position. If he does, the recruiting question is answered, which will help. It also cements the fact that Brown, using his name and resume, will try to lay a solid foundation for SMU in very little time, turning the keys over to launch a new program. And while Jankovich would be a good choice to take the reins, he also just finished a new contract with the Redbirds, so the decision is certainly conflicting for him. And, if he declines, SMU will have to anxiously find someone who is willing to bide his time for a couple of years.

On paper, the strategy was the same for Steve Orsini. Use SMU's location and wealth to land a big name to launch the Mustangs to a new level of success. June Jones will lead SMU into the Big East with potential to do quite well early. Larry Brown will lead the basketball team into unchartered waters, with pretty much everything up in the air and success very much an uncertainty.

It's a gamble, though, that the Mustangs are willing to take.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 6:24 PM | Comments (1)

Rafa Still King of Clay

Before I hurl accolades at Rafael Nadal for his victory in Monte Carlo last weekend, a great number of you will be saying, "No, Novak Djokovic's time is upon us. Monte Carlo was a blip."

A blip it may have been, but Djokovic is not the man of 2011. At this time last year, he had not lost a match. Now he has lost three. Worse, in his run of Masters 1000 events, Djokovic won the first four he participated in. This time around, he's one for three.

These aren't bad results, and the majority of players on the tour would give an arm and a leg for that kind of run, but it's not what people are expecting of the great Serbian warrior.

That said, there is a chink in the Serb's armor appearing. It is brought on not by poor play, but by the naturally upsetting loss of his grandfather earlier last week. Just three hours after learning of the loss, Novak decided to play and ground out a very emotional and very difficult win in what should have been a straightforward match.

Whether it was commendable to play or not is not for us to say. People deal with their problems in different ways, and maybe he put himself through those matches because his fans had travelled from far and wide to see him play. Either way, Novak pulled himself back into contention for all of the matches, always producing his best when it mattered most.

Except when he played Nadal.

Rafa knows that, sad though it may be, that Djokovic has lost a close family member, a match is a match, and his own fans had come to see him play his best tennis. He was brutally efficient in the way he dispatched the world No. 1, 6-3, 6-1.

Djokovic wasn't at his best, and his mind was clearly elsewhere, at least towards the end of the match. Out of the blocks, he was sharp as ever, dominating rallies, and pushing Nadal hard. But Nadal, who has won in Monte Carlo seven years running, wasn't about to roll over.

He produced the kind of display he hasn't shown Djokovic in years. He dug deep in defense and then battered all corners of the court with his lethal ground strokes. He pummeled Djokovic into submission. And yes, Djokovic faded away, but if Nadal had let up, he would have found a way back in.

But Nadal's experience in matches are that if you take your foot off the gas, you're allowing someone a chance. Press when you're ahead, and your opponent becomes demoralized. The only time I have seen Nadal demoralized was when he appeared lost in the Australian Open final in February this year, when he threw away an advantage to grant Djokovic a seventh successive victory over him.

But that streak is now at an end. Nadal couldn't beat Djokovic on clay last year, and while he may have had an advantage this time around, he will know that he hasn't lost his ability to win. An eighth straight title for Nadal at the Monte Carlo Country Club in Monaco is the pick-me-up he needed, having not won a title since last year's French Open 11 months ago.

Though still a month away, it would not be outrageous to think that Nadal has one hand on the Coupe des Mousquetaires. The clay courts of Monaco are very slow and they suit Nadal's game perfectly. The clay of Rolland Garros is similarly slow and thick, giving Nadal an edge over most of his competitors, who enjoy a faster ball.

In my own opinion, clay is a surface which shows how good a player is at hitting the ball and the variation in their game. Clay is a surface where you must batter your opponent in grueling baseline rallies, beguile them with cleverly disguised drop shots, and pull them out wide and close in for a put-away volley, or else be passed time and time again.

It is a game where service is almost irrelevant, and where the player with the better game usually wins out. Ivo Karlovic and Andy Roddick, with their huge serves and otherwise lacking games, have never found Rolland Garros a happy hunting ground.

Djokovic is a good clay court player, and the way he slides around the court is second only to "Mr Stretchy," aka Gael Monfils, and he will find Rome and Madrid easier to play, as the bounce is slightly lower, and the ball comes through a little quicker. This is particularly true of Madrid, where the high altitude and thin air has had players in previous years saying it plays more like a hard court.

Djokovic a good clay court player, but first and foremost, he's a hard court player. He may well dominate much of the hard court season this year as he did in 2011, but for 2012, the clay belongs to Rafa.

Posted by Angus Saul at 3:10 PM | Comments (0)

April 20, 2012

Secrets of the 2012 NFL Season

* In the Buccaneers' season-opener against the Panthers, the first 2,000 fans through the gates receive a commemorative "Greatest Players In Tampa Bay History" booklet, in which the career of Warren Sapp is chronicled, ironically, in Chapter 7.

Sapp good-naturedly laughs off the coincidence, and the team offers the strapped-for-cash former lineman a job hosting a post-game television show, in which he lauds the play of the day's top Tampa performers. The show, called "The Credit Report With Warren Sapp," is an instant hit.

* Peyton Manning pledges to lead the Broncos to the Super Bowl, a vow that becomes known in Denver as the "New Testament," and quells anti-Tim Tebow sentiment by performing a public service announcement in which he pleads, "Don't hate the prayer, hate the game."

Manning leads the Broncos to an 11-5 record and the AFC West crown, throwing for 4,239 yards and 35 touchdowns.

The Broncos knock off the Patriots in the AFC championship, and win Super Bowl XLVII by defeating the Packers, 31-29.

* Sean Payton sets a precedent, when, after video surfaces of him watching a Saints practice, he becomes the first coach in NFL history accused of spying of his own team.

* In an informal survey, ESPN asks NFL starting quarterbacks to name the league's top quarterback. To the surprise of no one, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning lead the voting. Also, to the surprise of no one, Joe Flacco gets one vote.

* The Seattle Seahawks, led by quarterback Matt Flynn, finish 10-6 in the NFC West and earn a wild card playoff spot and a date in Green Bay in the first round. The game goes into overtime, and during the coin toss, Flynn correctly calls tails, then announces, "We'll take the ball, and we're going to win, assuming I don't throw an interception for a touchdown on the first play of overtime, and, assuming we don't kick a field goal and then allow the Packers to score a touchdown for the win."

Officials then revoke the 'Hawks coin toss win, citing the NFL's obscure "long-windedness in an overtime playoff game coin toss" rule. The Packers win when Aaron Rodgers hits Greg Jennings for a 69-yard TD strike on the first play of overtime.

* The Texans roll to the AFC South title, sweeping all six divisional games, including two shutouts, and earn the top seed in the AFC playoffs. In the divisional round against the Patriots, the Texans hopes come crashing down when Arian Foster and Andre Johnson pull hamstrings, and Matt Schaub suffers a shoulder injury, during pre-game warmups.

* Tim Tebow is named host of a new Comedy Central television show in which he views internet videos and offers snarky wisecracks in a Christian and G-rated manner. The show, Gosh.0, is cancelled after two weeks due to low ratings.

* After scoring his first touchdown as a 49er in San Francisco's Week 5 win over the Bills, Randy Moss celebrates by renting Alcatraz Island for a party. The event, hosted by his estranged uncle from West Virginia, "DJ Dirty" Harry Moss, is sparsely attended, due to transportation issues, and Moss leaves in a huff, paddling back to the mainland on a raft fashioned from raincoats.

Moss is cut by the 49ers after he vehemently complains about a zero-catch day in Week 9, confronting Jim Harbaugh in his office. Harbaugh ejects Moss, after reminding him that the team had a Week 9 bye.

* Andrew Luck wins the starting quarterback job in Indianapolis, and receives a congratulatory phone call from Peyton Manning, which irritable Colts owner Jim Irsay proudly claims is Manning's last "audible" in Indianapolis.

* In an interview with Easy Rider magazine, Ben Roethlisberger creates an uproar when he expresses admiration Bobby Petrino, praising Petrino's ability to incorporate two of Roethlisberger's favorite pastimes, motorcycle wrecks and inappropriate relationships with women, into a single date.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell demands an apology, as does Petrino, and Roethlisberger complies.

The Steelers suffer an injury-plagued year, and finish 9-7, tied for second in the AFC North with the Bengals.

* Larry Fitzgerald, who unsuccessfully tried to lure Peyton Manning to Arizona, finds one thing even more difficult than trying to convince Manning to play for the Cardinals, and that's convincing himself to play for the Cardinals.

After a mediocre two-catch day against the Vikings in Minnesota in Week 7, Fitzgerald demands a trade, preferably one in which another team takes Kevin Kolb and John Skelton.

* The Raiders begin the season 0-2, but new head coach Dennis Allen energizes the team with his youthful exuberance and unmistakable excitability. When Darren McFadden breaks a long touchdown run down the Raider sideline in Week 3 against the Steelers, Allen follows him into the end zone, then leaps into the sea of fans occupying end zone seating.

Allen goes missing for five minutes and eventually escapes the Black Hole, but not before impatient and overzealous Raiders fans give him an extreme makeover, resulting in the reincarnation of Tom Flores.

Allen is never the same, but the Raiders are, as they finish 6-10 and miss the playoffs for the 10th consecutive year.

* Detroit's Jim Schwartz is named NFL Coach of the Year after leading the Lions to the NFC North title, but the fiery Lions leader recoils at the thought of receiving such a pat on the back, and refuses to accept the award.

* Brandon Marshall, reunited with Jay Cutler, makes an impact early in Chicago, with five touchdown catches in the Bears first four games. However, Marshall's biggest splash comes in October, when, after a night out partying on the Lakefront, he's tossed into Lake Michigan by a transvestite who vaguely resembles Chicago great Gary Fencik.

The Bears finish 7-9, good for third in the NFC North.

* Robert Griffin III is named the Redskins starting quarterback in late August, while John Beck beats out Rex Grossman for the backup position, thus earning Grossman the nickname "Rex Grossman the Third."

* Tony Romo leads the Cowboys to an 11-5 record and the NFC East title, throwing for 4,379 yards and 34 touchdowns and only 9 interceptions. Romo credits his added focus on fatherhood, and adds that nothing is more satisfying than smothering your baby with attention, a sentiment echoed by passionate Cowboys owner Jerry Jones.

* Sales of Tim Tebow's "WWTD?" bracelets are brisk among Jets fans, but not as brisk as those that ask "WWSDT?," which fans flash on the many occasions when they ask "Why would Sanchez do that?" However, those sales are dwarfed by those of Rex Ryan's "WTF?" bracelet, as well as Ryan's "WAF?!" (What A Foot?!) anklets.

The Jets finish 10-6, securing a wildcard playoff berth. New York stumbles to the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs, as Sanchez and Tim Tebow are both knocked out of the game by Ray Lewis, who then thanks the "U" and the "Him."

* Tennessee's Chris Johnson, hoping for a quick start to the season, shears his trademark dreadlocks prior to the season opener, drastically changing his appearance. Despite the streamlined look, Johnson suffers another mediocre season, rushing for only seven touchdowns. However, his disappointment is offset by the fact that he's not once mistaken for Pacman Jones.

* At the Super Bowl XLVII halftime show at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the Red Hot Chili Peppers take the stage, wearing nothing but socks. Amazingly, the band shocks more with their music when they dedicate their first number to Gregg Williams and break into a cover of the Gap Band's "Oops Upside Your Head."

Saints officials are infuriated, and vow revenge, but stop shot of placing bounties on the heads of the Chili Peppers.

* Madison Avenue rejoices with the announcement that State Farm spokesman Aaron Rodgers and Progressive Insurance endorser Flo have been dating, giving the advertising industry its first super-couple. The relationship sours, though, when Flo blatantly uses Rodgers' "championship belt" touchdown celebration in a Progressive commercial, touting their "discount trouble check."

Rodgers ends the relationship, and is seen just days later in Aspen, Colorado getting cozy with an insurance endorser's dream, the underdressed and underinsured swimsuit model Kate Upton, who, in more ways than one, lacks coverage.

* LeSean McCoy wins the NFL rushing title, amassing 1,562 yards on the ground, besting Arian Foster by 112 yards. With his rookie contract expiring, McCoy demands to become the NFL's highest-paid running back, to which Philadelphia owner Jeffrey Lurie replies "Get real, McCoy."

* Ray Rice again leads the NFL in total yards from scrimmage with 2,112, but earns even more recognition by pairing with 90-year-old comic icon Betty White in a television ad to endorse Axe Body Spray. In the ad, White aggressively gropes Rice after he anoints himself with the body spray, as an announcer promises that women will be on you "like White on Rice" if you use Axe.

* DeMarcus Ware leads the NFL with 19.5 sacks on the year and is named the NFC Defensive Player Of The Year. Ware abruptly retires to pursue a boxing career, but returns to football after his first bout ends in a second round TKO loss to Danny Bonaduce.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:20 PM | Comments (0)

April 19, 2012

The Myth of Tanking

In these waning weeks of the NBA regular season, writers and talking heads often focus as much on the league's race to the bottom as the sprint to its top. Tanking, they call it, and every commentator chimes in with his or her foolproof way to fix this nasty plot.

And all of it is lie.

The general tentpoles of the tanking argument say that because the NBA's Draft Lottery is weighted to favor its worst teams, it provides an incentive for those with abandoned playoff aspirations to lose rather than win late in the season. And this part of the theory would be true, but like any half-baked conspiracy, it takes several liberties with logic.

First, consider the players. Of all of the stakeholders in the NBA, nobody has a greater impact on winning and losing than, you know, the actual guys doing the winning and losing. This simple fact is the first major crack in the tanking myth.

To start, any member of a conscious tank-spiracy would be required to believe the payoff of a higher draft pick will help them personally. Call this Corrie's NBA Theorem of Game Theory, just another everyday example of humans acting in their best interest. But losing is actually the less attractive option for nearly every player in the league, even those on cellar-dwelling, tanking-opportune teams.

For a player to actually benefit from tanking, he would have to: (a) be signed beyond the current season, (b) not consider a high lottery pick a threat to his own place in the rotation, and (c) be confident that any tank-taint would not affect his future contract status. How many young players with multi-year deals are there on bad teams where any high lottery pick would not affect their playing time? We've eliminated at least 95% of NBA players, and really, the remaining few individuals don't have much motivation to sabotage their teams.

But to be fair, most of the tanking hype focuses on non-players. Coaches control playing time, so they would be the next most-likely conspirators. And yet, their candidacy suffers from many of the same self-interest flaws as their players.

What is one of the first two stats you see when a coach is fired? His career winning percentage. Unlike players who are mostly evaluated by individual metrics, coaches are literally judged by the numbers tanking would aim to deflate. Could losing be overlooked as simply smart situational management? Perhaps, but it seems far more likely all of a coach's losses will be lumped together as one blemish on his resume in the years after the tank-job. A pro-tanking coach would have to be extremely confident in his job security, and looking at the league's rate of coaching turnover, I don't see many of those types heading toward the lottery.

So eliminating the labor and middle management from the conspiracy leaves only nefarious, smoke-filled-room potential tankists in the front office. This would be the most covert way to implement Operation Tank, but it would also be the riskiest.

A typical front-office move that rouses tanking suspicion typically involves shutting down an injured player. For example, the Cavs have been sitting Kyrie Irving with a shoulder injury and, just Monday, the Warriors announced they will limp through the rest of the season without David Lee limping on groin and leg injuries. But neither of these moves is clear evidence of tanking.

Tanking zealots often overlook two pieces of a bigger picture. First, in order to be a tanking candidate in the first place, teams have to have failed when they were actually trying to win during the first half of the season. Or to be more direct: teams likely to tank don't need a conspiracy to stink at the end of the season; they do it just fine all year.

The second broader reality is that while the best result for a bad team in one season might be to get worse at the end, that might not be the best result for the team across seasons. The reason the NBA Office was scared to death of the Tim Donaghy scandal was the suggestion that the outcome of games was not honestly determined by play itself. If we stop believing the product we are buying is 100% unscripted, the league's credibility is ruined along with the purpose of watching any game. Would you rather watch the WWE to learn its results or talk to one of its writers?

This premise applies to tanking just as much. When a fan buys a ticket or takes the time to watch a game, there is an unspoken contract that the fan will get back a comprehensive attempt to win. Oh, talent may be overmatched and mistakes may be made, but those are the acceptable rolls of the dice inherent to sports. But tanking by holding out players who could play would be like declining to roll the dice at all. So while a team might get away with sitting a star at the end of a lost season on occasion, it risks the confidence of its customers.

And what about those injured key players being held out? If the public doesn't know how injured they are, why not shut them down in pursuit of more ping-pong balls?

Consider a draft lottery where each team has an equal chance of winning (a theory often posed as the tanking antidote). Yes, the incentive to lose is removed. But as soon as the playoffs are impossible or strongly improbable, the season's remaining games still have no payoff. Cleveland and Golden State would still sit Irving and Lee! That lack of team incentive, and not lottery-fueled self-destruction, is the real illness of bad teams.

But that is more of a problem for a coaching staff trying to compete against playoff-bound teams jockeying for seed positioning. For a front office, the longer game of building a fan base and keeping its confidence is much more important.

Everyone likes to believe in conspiracies that suggest there are elements working behind or underneath the systems of rules that constrict us on the surface level. Conspiracies give us an excuse when we fail and make our toughest victories even more gratifying.

But the myth of tanking, like so many conspiracies, latches onto noise in the system instead of real driving forces. Nobody's payoff for tanking is worth its best-case scenario. It's a conspiracy without any serious beneficiaries, and I don't believe it.

Now, as for the Draft Lottery, itself...

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 7:02 PM | Comments (0)

A Solution to the Concussion Craze

The concussion conundrum that has been at the forefront of the NFL and NHL over the past few years is a serious issue. This type of injury does not only harm fan bases and organizations, it jeopardizes the livelihood and future of victimized athletes. So what can be done to protect players while simultaneously maintaining the essence of each sport?

I think I've figured it out. First, allow me to quote a portion of the Sixth Amendment to the United States Constitution:

"In all criminal prosecutions, the accused shall enjoy the right to a speedy and public trial, by an impartial jury of the State and district wherein the crime shall have been committed..."

Is there anyone who disagrees with this policy? Then why not bring it to sports?

One of the major issues that the NFL and NHL has had to deal in recent years is the notion that NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and NHL head disciplinarian Brendan Shanahan seemingly have no standards for doling out fines and suspensions. Players are unsure where the lines are.

Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker James Harrison has long suspected that he is simply on Goodell's "naughty" list and, therefore, receives harsher punishment than others of equal guilt. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. However, he is only one of many who question the decisions of the monarchical front offices of these two sports organizations.

As a man who has served as a Dean of Students — or head disciplinarian — at the middle school level, I know the importance of setting precedents and preserving "fairness." If one student earns a detention for chewing gum, the next student cannot be given a free pass. The notion is the same in sports.

In Game 3 of the 2012 Western Conference Quarterfinals between the Chicago Blackhawks and Phoenix Coyotes, a vicious hit by Coyotes winger Raffi Torres took Marian Hossa of Chicago out of the game on a stretcher. No penalty was called. In fact, due to a teammate of Hossa defending his honor by grabbing Torres, the Blackhawks had to serve the penalty. Hossa did not return; Torres played the rest of the night. Fair?

Upon further review, the hit was clearly illegal on several grounds. Torres charged Hossa, aiming for his head; he left his feet, which is against the rules; and he interfered with a player that was no longer controlling the puck. How four referees missed this makes me sick to my stomach. However, the NHL wisely suspended Torres the next day, indefinitely.

This brings back the same question that has been asked hundreds of times: how can we prevent this from happening?

Here's how:

Each team elects a representative "juror" for the season. If a suspension-worthy offense occurs (as deemed by Goodell/Shanahan in their respective leagues), player representatives review the circumstances and vote on the price to be paid. Allow players to determine the consequences for one another.

I've thought of the major counter argument: "Players wouldn't snitch." Solution: make the votes anonymous.

Look, when NFL players knew the Saints were trying to hurt other players, they had two options: snitch or let it happen. This solution offers a third choice: analyze the play in private and cast a silent vote to determine whether or not "dirty play" will continue.

I truly believe that any NHL player (except maybe Raffi Torres) would view Raffi Torres' hit on Marian Hossa as disgraceful, cowardly, and flat out sad. I also truly believe that players value themselves, their families, their teammates, and the sports they play enough to look at someone such as Torres — a repeat offender — and dole out the proper punishment.

Essentially, players could be banned for life by other players. They would be forced to respect one another or suffer dire, career-threatening consequences. If this wouldn't be incentive to clean up the way a player goes about his business on the gridiron or in the rink, then I don't know what can.

Imagine a group of husbands/fathers/football players watching Brandon Meriweather go helmet-to-helmet with clear intent for the third time in a season. Imagine a contingency of husbands/fathers/hockey players witnessing Torres' third horrifically dangerous hit in the past two seasons. Now imagine those same men who suit up for the games deciding, "This isn't what I want my game to be. He needs to go."

Wouldn't that send a message?

Posted by Louie Centanni at 4:17 PM | Comments (3)

April 18, 2012

Revisiting Baseball's Offseason Moves

In the Internet age, sports are a year-round business. You have the season. And you have the offseason.

Every offseason, we spend countless hours projecting who will sign where, then determining the wisdom of those decisions before they have a chance to play out. Of course those opinions are really just perceptions and projections, which are often based on whether the eventual moves lined up with our pre-move projections, but that doesn't stop us.

Hey, it's December and games don't start till April. We've got to have something to talk about.

So accepting that we're just a dozen or so games into the season, let's revisit some of the major moves from the offseason and see how they're working out.

Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson to the Los Angeles Angels

Pujols was an all-time hot stove story — the kind that actually started two years before the once-pride of St. Louis decided to trade in his Cardinals legacy for Arte Moreno's money, daughters and soul.

Everybody knows Pujols has gotten off to his second consecutive slow start. Although April 2012 has been slightly more kind to Pujols than April 2011, it is still way below the starts he was accustomed to during his record-producing first decade in the Big Leagues:

* In the first month (March/April) from 2001 and 2010, Pujols hit over .320 seven times and averaged a cumulative .328. Last year, it was just .245 in the first month-plus, and he's at .268 so far this year.

* Pujols' early-season homers last year were on par with historical standard with seven, but his doubles dropped from an average of 6.4 in March-April from 2001 to 2010 to just one last year. Meanwhile, his GIDP (grounded in double plays), increased from an average of 3.2 in March-April 2001-2010 to a nine last season.

Not coincidentally, in 2011 Pujols finished with career lows in doubles (29) and batting average (.299) and a career high in GIDP (29). His walks were also a career-low with just 61 on the season; he's at three in 44 plate appearances so far in 2012.

Of course the #smallsamplesize hashtag is certainly in play here, especially for this season. I'm by no means willing to throw dirt on the Pujols Era in baseball. Not with five months left in the season. But the fact is he's performing at career-worst levels, and he has for the better part of the last calendar year.

With just two starts so far this year, Wilson's sample size is even smaller that Pujols'. But at least Wilson's early season has seen success, with a 2-0 record, 1.38 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The fact he's done in it two road wins, over the Twins and Yankees, makes it all the better.

Not only has Wilson responded to the pressure of the big deal with results, his steadiness protects the Angels as Ervin Santana does his "maybe I suck, maybe I don't" routine for the next few weeks.

Wilson is 31 and only on the books for five seasons, meaning the Angels won't have the big bucks sunk into (another) aging player as they work on Jered Weaver's last big contract in 2016.

Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and Heath Bell to the Miami Marlins

The Marlins are a mess, and it starts from the top with a shady owner who hired the big mouth manager who happened to open his big mouth and said something stupid that forced his suspension to quell the PR hit the franchise was taking.

Not only was the Ozzie Guillen hiring more about headlines than winning baseball, so was their offseason strategy of throwing huge money at Jose Reyes, the very epitome of flash greatness (the "flash" part because it's not usually there). In nine seasons with the Mets, he made just four all-star teams and finished in the top 10 in MVP voting once (seventh in 2006). He's hitting .238 so far this season with a .289 on-base percentage and four errors, tied for the most in baseball.

Buerhle is 0-2, although he's pitched decently on the road in Philadelphia and Cincinnati. He's not getting hammered, but he's not blowing anybody away either. Basically, he's being Mark Buehrle. Nothing more, nothing less.

The Heath Bell signing was doomed from the get go. The signs of decline started last year with a drop in his k/9 from 11.1 in 2010 to 7.3 last year. The impact of more balls in play was mitigated by an unusually low Batting Average on Balls in Play last year at just .269 (down from .329 in 2010 and a career average of .309), but with the K rate still on the decline (6.0 in four appearances) and the "luck" factor going the other way (.500 BAbip), the results have not been pretty (blown his only two save chances).

Prince Fielder to the Detroit Tigers

This has the makings of being the best move of the offseason. Of course you can always question the wisdom of giving somebody with Fielder's body type a nine-year contract, but he's only 27 and should be able to last as a DH through his mid-30s, so there's much less risk than with Pujols (who will make $6 million more in the final season of his deal at age 41 than Fielder will in his at 36).

But that debate is for another time. Right now, Fielder and Cabrera are the cornerstones of one of the most dangerous offense in the majors. Hitting clean-up, Fielder is batting .324 with a .395 on-base percentage. He would probably have more than his five RBI if it wasn't for Cabrera knocking them in before Fielder gets a chance.

You never want to read too much into early results, but what Detroit has on offense looks sustainable. This could be a special season in Motown, and Fielder is going to be right at the heart of it.

Red Sox replace Terry Francona with Bobby Valentine

Bobby V. just can't help himself. Everybody knew this coming in, so it should be no surprise that things have already spiraled into the absurd with Valentine calling out Kevin Youkilis for not being as invested in the game as he once way.

Valentine's style can only work in two kinds of places: a young team without any established credibility, or a team that has sucked and is willing to do whatever to get over the hump.

The Red Sox are neither of these things. They are a club of huge contracts, and the egos to match. Many of these guys were around for the title seasons — guys like Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia (who really took offense to Valentine's comments about Youkilis), David Ortiz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Josh Beckett.

Did the Red Sox need something to change in a clubhouse that sounded like it got too comfortable with itself? Yes. Getting rid of Francona was the right thing to do. But adding Valentine's personality to that club, with the Boston media always on the prowl for the next thing to feel crappy about, showed a fundamental lack of understanding of human psychology. The fact new GM Ben Cherington didn't want to hire Valentine but was overruled by ownership just makes the club seem that much more dysfunctional.

Yu Darvish to the Texas Rangers

Darvish has been mediocre to start (1-0 with a 4.76 ERA, 2.20 WHIP and 9/8 K/BB ratio), but he's young and the dollars weren't too outrageous (unless you count the posting fee). I'd be a bit worried as a Rangers fan that Darvish couldn't control the Twins or Mariners, two of what figure to be the more anemic offenses in the AL this year, but the adjustment period from Japan to the US has to account for some of that.

The main issue for Darvish is how his confidence will hold up if he doesn't get things turned around. There's no pressure on him now because the Rangers are winning, but with series against the Tigers, Yankees and Rays coming up, a continued pounding may spiral into a major concern.

Other moves that look good (so far):

* Cardinals signing Carlos Beltran (.324 BA, 1.013 OPS) and hiring Mike Matheny to replace Tony La Russa

* Nationals signing Edwin Jackson (1-0, 2.57 ERA, 0.643 WHIP, 15/3 K/BB) and trading for Gio Gonzalez (0-0, 3.38 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 13/3 K/BB)

* Rays signing Carlos Pena (.351 BA, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 1.169 OPS)

* Indians signing Derek Lowe (2-0, 1.98 ERA, 1.244 WHIP, although just three strikeouts in 13.2 IP)

* Twins signing Josh Willingham (.389 BA, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 1.254 OPS)

* A's signing Bartolo Colon (2-1, 3.72 ERA, 0.931 WHIP, 14/2 K/BB)

* Dodgers signing Matt Kemp (.487 BA, 6 HR, 16 RBI) to a very friendly deal (8 years, $160 million) considering position and other deals signed by Fielder (9 years, $214M), Pujols (10 years, $240 million) and Cincinnati's Joey Votto (10 years, $225 million)

* Diamondbacks acquiring Trevor Cahill (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.050 WHIP) from the A's

Other moves that look a little shaky in the early going:

* Toronto top prospect Nestor Molina to the White Sox for closer Sergio Santos (0-1, 12.00 ERA, 2.333 WHIP, 1 save)

* Red Sox failing to replace catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.100 BA this season, .235 last season)

* Rangers relying on 37-year-old closer Joe Nathan (0-2, 7 H and 4 ER in 6 IP, 3 saves)

* A's signing the Cuban Wily Mo Pena (aka Yoenis Cespedes (.212 BA, 3 HR, 15 SO)

* Reds trading for Mat Latos (0-1, 5.59 ERA, 12 H and 6 ER in 9.2 IP) and the Padres taking Edinson Volquez (14 hits and 12 walks in 17 IP) in return 

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 7:21 PM | Comments (2)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 7

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Greg Biffle — Biffle passed Jimmie Johnson with 30 laps to go at Texas, and pulled away to win the Samsung Mobile 500, his first win in 49 races. Biffle extended his lead in the Sprint Cup point standings, and now leads Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Matt Kenseth by 19.

"That's one winless streak over," Biffle said. "Pity poor Jimmie Johnson. He's got his own winless streak to contend with — he hasn't won a championship in 43 races.

"Winning in Texas is always a thrill. It's not often I get to put on a cowboy hat and wave guns around, while still clothed."

2. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished fifth at Texas on a strong day for Roush Fenway Racing, as Greg Biffle took the victory and Carl Edwards finished eighth. Kenseth now sits in a tie for second in the point standings, 19 behind Biffle.

"That was the shortest race in Texas history," Kenseth said, "and most boring. They say everything is bigger in Texas, and apparently, that includes fan disappointment.

"But I'm glad to see Biffle finally win one. He's always solid at Texas, and the same goes for Kansas, where he's won twice in his career. So it looks like we could see much of the same at Kansas Speedway — a Biffle win, and monotony."

3. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt posted his fifth top-10 finish of the year, scoring a 10th in the Samsung Mobile 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. He is second in the Sprint Cup point standings, still looking for his first win in 136 races.

"I'm still searching for that elusive next win," Earnhardt said. "Luckily, I have legions of Junior Nation fans supporting me. So, every week, the Nation hosts the world's greatest 'search' party. Of course, they're lucky if they can find their keys come race's end."

4. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson led a race-high 156 laps at Texas, but was outclassed by the Ford of Greg Biffle, who slipped by Johnson with 30 laps to go and never looked back. Johnson is now eighth in the point standings, 40 out of first.

"It was quite a windy day at Texas Motor Speedway," Johnson said. "You could say there was more 'drafting' on Saturday in Texas that any day at Talladega or Daytona. Finishing second to Biffle? That blows, too. I felt good after hearing the pre-race weather forecast, which called for 'just wind, baby.'

"But when I needed a caution, NASCAR wouldn't give me one. Normally in NASCAR races, it doesn't take wind to make the yellow flag wave. Two cautions in a race that boring was simply not enough. It's time for NASCAR to institute a companion rule to the 'competition caution,' and call it the 'repetition caution.'"

5. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex came home sixth in the Samsung Mobile 500, posting his fifth top-10 of the year to continue his strong start to the season. He is now fourth in the point standings, 20 behind Greg Biffle.

"'Martin Truex, Jr.' and 'championship contender' are not two words one would normally associate," Truex said. "Much like 'Michael Waltrip' and 'masculinity.'

"But the Truex fan base is growing in droves. My fan club, appropriately known as the 'Soul Patch,' is probably the 20th most-influential in NASCAR."

6. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished a disappointing 24th at Texas, finishing two laps down for his worst result of the year. He tumbled four places in the point standings to seventh, and trails Greg Biffle by 39.

"One race I'm invincible," Stewart said, "and the next, I'm anything but invincible. Some say there are two Tony's. Those who claim I'm overweight say there's enough there for two Tony's."

7. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished ninth at Texas, piloting his No. 29 Budweiser Chevy to his fourth top-10 result of the year. He is now fifth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 24 out of first.

"It was a windy day at Texas Motor Speedway," Harvick said. "You may have seen a $100 bill stuck to my car's grill during the race. That's a sure sign of one of two things: either one of NASCAR's rinky-dink race teams 'blew' their entire budget, or Delana and I should name our son 'Benjamin Franklin.'"

8. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin came home 12th in the Samsung Mobile 500, one spot behind Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch. Hamlin moved up one spot to sixth in the point standings, 31 out of first.

"We needed to make adjustments," Hamlin said, "but the long green flag runs wouldn't allow it. There were only two cautions the entire race, making it a 'Texas two stop.'

"I spent my off-week caddying for Bubba Watson in the Masters par 3 contest. He was the only player to use a 'driver' on a par 3."

9. Jeff Gordon — After a dismal qualifying effort of 34th, Gordon quickly zoomed towards the front and finished fourth, leading two laps and posting his first top-five finish of the year. Gordon has led a lap in all seven races this year.

"All four Hendrick Motorsports cars placed in the top 10," Gordon said, "even Kasey Kahne. That was by far Kasey's best finish of the year. Mostly, he's struggled. It seems Kasey's taken the switch from a Camry to an Impala a little too seriously, because he's been driving that Chevy 'like a rock' so far.

"And speaking of 'Rock,' Kasey won the Craftsman Truck series race at Rockingham on Sunday. Apparently, a Hendrick driver can win on a Sunday."

10. Carl Edwards — Edwards joined Roush Fenway teammates Greg Biffle and Matt Kenseth in the top 10, posting an eighth in the Samsung Mobile 500. Edwards is now 11th in the point standings, 58 out of first.

"My former girlfriend, Amanda Beard, just released a tell-all biography," Edwards said, "and had few good things to say about me. Apparently, she just wasn't into the NASCAR lifestyle. I think the final straw was when I plugged a sponsor while sweet-talking her.

"Otherwise, I have no comment. I've been told that if you can't say anything nice, don't say anything at all. That explains the silent treatment Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle have been giving me all these years."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:22 AM | Comments (0)

April 17, 2012

Why "The Ultimate Fighter" is Failing

Seven years ago, a reality show called The Ultimate Fighter saved the UFC. With the company struggling and desperate, the series introduced both hardcore fans and casual channel-flippers to athletes and personalities like Chris Leben, Nate Quarry, Diego Sanchez, and Kenny Florian. The series finale featured an epic fight, often described as the most important in mixed martial arts history, and sometimes as the best fight ever in the UFC, between Stephan Bonnar and Forrest Griffin.

Stars like Griffin and Sanchez turned around the company's fortunes and made immediate impact in the sport. Griffin went on to become a UFC champion, and several other fighters who starred on The Ultimate Fighter have also fought in championship bouts. Following years of declining ratings, and a new television deal with FOX, the show this season changed networks, overhauled its format, and even changed its name to The Ultimate Fighter: Live. The ratings have been dismal. Why?

There are probably a lot of reasons, but here are some of the leaders:

Fans don't know which channel to watch.

Let's not be naïve. Many fans are probably watching TUF re-runs on Spike instead of the new show on FX. This problem is obviously correctable over time, but it's clearly part of the issue.

Viewers have other plans for their Fridays.

Long a staple of Wednesday nights, the show has moved to Fridays. Some fans are probably unaware of the change, while others simply have different plans for their weekends than they do on Wednesdays. Many fans already sacrifice part of their social lives to watch full events on Saturday nights; giving up Fridays as well may be too much to ask.

The show is competing against itself.

About a week after the launch of TUF: Live, the first-ever international version of the show debuted on Brazilian television and UFC.com. Honestly, the Brazilian show, which retains the old format, is more interesting than the new US version.

Over-saturation.

I suspect the UFC has lost large portions of its audience from both sides of the fan spectrum: casual fans who didn't even realize the show was switching nights and channels, and hard-core fans who have better options now. In the past, many fight fans tuned in to TUF just because it was an opportunity to watch MMA. Fans were happy to sit through an hour-long show if there was a fight at the end. In 2004, the year before the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, the UFC only put on five events. In 2011, it held 27 events.

Hardcore fans already devote an enormous amount of time to watching the UFC, about half the Saturday nights in the year. Add in the new season of Bellator, two simultaneous seasons of TUF, and various smaller or growing promotions like Super Fight League, and there's just not a lot of time left over. I'm a huge fan of MMA, but I can't keep up with it all. Bellator and TUF: Brazil are more entertaining than the new show on FX. For that matter, so is Bully Beatdown. I'm supposed to tune away from Mayhem Miller to watch Chris Tickle?

The new format is a change for the worse.

The live format was a bad idea. It feels like there's a bunch of dead time waiting for the fights, and one of the most interesting parts of the old show, the taped interviews with the coaches where they sum up the action, is gone now, or moved to the beginning of the next episode, where it's less effective.

The post-fight interviews with Jon Anik are not only boring, they're cringe-inducing. Not that it's Anik's fault, it's just an awful idea. I hate interviews with the losing fighter, especially after a KO or TKO. No one should be interviewing a fighter who got knocked out literally a minute earlier.

For the winners, the old taped interviews with fighters speaking to the camera were more interesting and engaging; the contestants seemed more human. Interviews with a breathless victor are less so, especially because these guys are all conducting themselves like professionals. I'm not saying I miss Junie Browning and Bobby Southworth, but there's nothing interesting about these guys giving bland interviews with sound bytes. The fighters were more honest and open and emotional in the old format.

It's harder to root for someone who already seems like a pro. Where are all the underdogs, the Amir Sadollahs and Cody McKenzies who don't even belong here? Maybe it's just these particular coaches and fighters, but I think the live format has the cast keeping its guard up a lot more than the pre-recorded show did.

The quick transition to picking next week's fight also drains the drama out of the fight announcements, which aren't all that compelling immediately following a fight. Everything just seems bland this season.

Some of these issues can only be corrected with time. Eventually, some of the people still looking for TUF on Wednesday nights on Spike will catch on to the new show Fridays on FX. Other problems will never change. The growth of MMA, for instance, is good for the UFC but bad for the reality show. The fans who once watched TUF simply to get their MMA fix have other options now, and some of them will never commit an hour of their weekends to watching a two-round fight between a couple of guys who may not be very good.

But many of the problems are correctable. Running the Brazil show concurrently with the new live program was probably a mistake, and I doubt the UFC will repeat it. More significantly, the live format needs major tweaking, and I hope FX and the UFC will work together to address some of its shortcomings. I'd like to see them drop the live fights entirely and return to a recorded broadcast. Watching an event live only makes it more exciting because you don't know the results beforehand, so in the absence of leaks, pre-recorded fights are just as good. Failing that, I'd like to get announcers for the live fights, maybe even a crowd. The only reason not to do it before was spoilers, and that's not an issue if you're live.

April 2012 UFC Rankings

The rankings below are exclusively for the UFC, so you won't see names like Alexander Shlemenko or Hiroyuki Takaya on these lists.

Heavyweight (206-265 lbs)

1. Junior Dos Santos
2. Cain Velasquez
3. Alistair Overeem
4. Frank Mir
5. Fabricio Werdum
6. Shane Carwin
7. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
8. Brendan Schaub
9. Roy Nelson
10. Mark Hunt

Make it Happen: Dos Santos vs. Fëdor Emelianenko

Alistair Overeem, in case you missed it, failed a random drug test for his title fight with Dos Santos. Long the subject of speculation regarding performance-enhancing drugs, Overeem submitted a sample that registered more than twice the permissible testosterone limit, approximately 14 times the normal level. UFC President Dana White has shot down speculation regarding Mir or Hunt stepping in to replace Overeem, and I think that's wise. JDS vs. Mir doesn't really make anyone happy, but it does ruin a compelling fight between Mir and Velasquez.

Fëdor Emelianenko is not in the UFC, and he probably never will be, but he and his management team have expressed interest recently, and this is a fight Dana knows he could sell. It's probably 100-to-1, but if Overeem doesn't get cleared to fight, this is the best direction to go.

Thank You, UFC, For: UFC 146

Overeem's testosterone violation has cast a major pall over this event, and presumably scuttled one of the most anticipated matches in heavyweight history, but the UFC put together an incredible card of heavyweight action, and there's still a lot to like about this event.

Light Heavyweight (186-205)

1. Jon Jones
t2. Dan Henderson
t2. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
t2. Lyoto Machida
t2. Rashad Evans
6. Alexander Gustafsson
7. Phil Davis
8. Ryan Bader
9. Forrest Griffin
10. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson

I know using ties in a ranking is kind of weak, but stick with me. Hendo beat Shogun, Shogun beat Machida, Machida beat Evans. I wouldn't bet on Henderson against Evans, and definitely not against Machida. I think they're all great fighters, and — styles make fights — I think it's all about the matchups. Other than Jones and maybe Gustafsson, is there any other LHW in the world who would even have a good chance against those four? I don't believe so.

Make it Happen: Phil Davis vs. Stephan Bonnar

On paper, this is a mismatch, and I guess it might be. But Bonnar's won three in a row, he has a huge experience advantage, and his slick ground game means Davis can't just rely on his wrestling. At worst, this is an entertaining fight that moves Davis back into contending position. At best, a fan favorite scores a huge upset and returns to prominence at 205.

Thank You, UFC, For: Jones vs. Evans

Jones is an overwhelming favorite, and with good reason, but Rashad has looked terrific recently, and he's earned this shot.

Middleweight (171-185)

1. Anderson Silva
2. Chael Sonnen
3. Michael Bisping
4. Vitor Belfort
5. Yushin Okami
6. Mark Muñoz
7. Rousimar Palhares
8. Brian Stann
9. Alan Belcher
10. Tim Boetsch

Make it Happen: Okami vs. Stann

At some point, Stann has to prove himself against a great wrestler and someone who can match his size. I know there will be calls for Stann/Muñoz, and that makes sense except for the timing. Muñoz hasn't fought since November, and Stann probably won't be ready again until late summer. Rather than keeping Muñoz on the shelf, match him up against Chris Weidman.

Thank You, UFC, For: Rich Franklin vs. Cung Le

Neither is ever likely to be a serious contender again, but you know this will be a fun fight. I'm glad to see Rich back at middleweight.

Also, thank you for Palhares vs. Belcher (UFC on FOX 3, May 5).

Welterweight (156-170)

1. Georges St-Pierre
2. Carlos Condit
3. Nick Diaz
4. Johny Hendricks
5. Jon Fitch
6. Jake Ellenberger
7. Martin Kampmann
8. Jake Shields
9. Josh Koscheck
10. Rory MacDonald

Make it Happen: Fitch vs. Shields

Why put on two boring fights when you can condense them into one? I actually don't think Fitch is as dull as his reputation, but Shields really needs to round out to his game.

Thank You, UFC, For: Ellenberger vs. Kampmann

I think it's really pathetic that Carlos Condit is ducking all challengers until St-Pierre's knee heals. I've liked Condit since the WEC days, but that's just weak. Ellenberger and Kampmann both had good arguments for a shot at the interim title, and this is making the best of a bad situation.

Lightweight (146-155)

1. Ben Henderson
2. Frankie Edgar
3. Gray Maynard
4. Jim Miller
5. Anthony Pettis
6. Evan Dunham
7. Joe Lauzon
8. Clay Guida
9. Edson Barboza
10. Donald Cerrone

I don't understand people ranking Nate Diaz in the top five. He's lost two of his last four fights, and he's 3-3 at 155 since 2009. Diaz has won two fights in this weight class in the last 2½ years. If he beats Jim Miller, I'll admit I was wrong. Until then, I maintain people are confusing him with Nick.

Make it Happen: No More Immediate Rematches

I understand why people felt like Frank Edgar deserved an immediate rematch, after he gave them to B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard, but it's created a backlog of qualified contenders, including Miller, Pettis, and Strikeforce champion Gilbert Melendez. I know Frankie didn't want to change weight classes, and he shouldn't have to after the success he's had at lightweight, but I would much rather see Henderson vs. Pettis/Miller/Melendez, and Edgar vs. Jose Aldo at 145, than Bendo/Frankie II and Aldo vs. Someone He Will Destroy.

Thank You, UFC, For: Dunham vs. Barboza

Two young, talented fighters working their way into title contention. I'm surprised Barboza is such a heavy favorite (-240).

Featherweight (136-145)

1. Jose Aldo
2. Dustin Poirier
3. Erik Koch
4. Chad Mendes
5. Hatsu Hioki
6. Mark Hominick
7. Robert Peralta
8. Dennis Siver
9. Chan Sung Jung
10. Diego Nunes

Make it Happen: Mendes vs. Mike Thomas Brown

Give Brown a chance to show he's still elite, and force Mendes to prove he can beat someone strong and well-rounded.

Thank You, UFC, For: Poirier vs. Jung

The Korean Zombie gets a opportunity to show he can compete with the best. I suspect the winner of this fight will get the call to face Aldo.

Bantamweight (126-135)

1. Dominick Cruz
2. Urijah Faber
3. Renan "Barão" Pegado
4. Brian Bowles
5. Miguel Torres
6. Scott Jorgensen
7. Brad Pickett
8. Eddie Wineland
9. Michael McDonald
10. Ivan Menjivar

Make it Happen: Bowles vs. winner of Torres/McDonald

The winner of the Torres/McDonald becomes a serious title contender, and Bowles has never lost to anyone but Cruz and Faber. Alternatively, I wouldn't argue with the winner of Torres/McDonald vs. the winner of Barão/Menjivar. Speaking of which...

Thank You, UFC, For: Barão vs. Menjivar

A month ago, rumor pitted Barão against Jeff Hougland. I think he's going to roll through Ivan Menjivar, but this is much more logical matchup, expected for July. Barão lost the first fight of his career, in April 2005. Since then, he's 28-0, including wins over Jorgensen and Pickett.

Flyweight (116-125)

I'm not ranking this division until it has more fighters, but I expect Joseph Benavidez to become the first UFC flyweight champion.

UFC 145: Jones vs. Evans

This is actually kind of a weird event. Great undercard, weak main card, great main event. Every fight on the main card features a favorite of at least -250, a couple (Jones and Hominick) who are twice that. I won't re-hash the unusual relationship between Jones and his challenger, former champ Rashad Evans, but there's genuine bad blood on at least one side, and it's an exciting matchup. The emotional stakes add to that, but there's also Jones' aura of invincibility, and the slim hope that maybe Evans, the champ's former training partner, has a chance. Besides, Jones is never boring — there's a lot to look forward to.

Rashad's speed could give Jones problems, and his wrestling and reach make this a legitimately intriguing matchup. That said, it's hard to imagine anyone beating Jones right now, or even going the distance with him. I suspect Jones wins before the end of the second round.

The rest of the main card is almost silly to predict, because I'm not going with a +500 underdog, but if you really need to go against the odds, consider John Alessio (+270) against Mark Bocek. Alessio replaced Matt Wiman on relatively short notice, and he's won 10 of his last 11. I wouldn't bet it myself, but it's less risky than rolling the dice on Che Mills or Rashad. Chad Griggs (+250) is also an appealing underdog. I understand why Travis Browne is favored, but not at 3:1.

Honestly, this is the type of event that calls out for a parlay. Any 6-man parlay is begging for disaster, but Jon Jones + Rory MacDonald + Brendan Schaub + Mark Hominick + Miguel Torres + Maximo Blanco would yield over $100 on a $20 bet, and I feel like there's at least a 1-in-3 chance that hits. I worry about Torres against a young stud like Michael McDonald, especially after a layoff and his temporary release from the UFC, but this is a huge step up in competition for McDonald. He's never fought anyone of Torres' caliber.

Bellator Fighting Championships 66

The other huge, huge event next weekend is Friday night's Bellator rematch of Eddie Alvarez and Shinya Aoki. Alvarez is the favorite, which doesn't surprise me, but most books have him about -220, which seems crazy. After a couple shots of Jäger and some old DREAM highlights, I could talk myself into taking Aoki straight up, never mind as a 2-to-1 underdog. If you're the betting type, throw some small action on Aoki (+185) just to play the odds.

That's a stacked card, featuring four tournament semi-finals and two of the best lightweights in the world. Must-see for any serious fan of MMA.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:33 PM | Comments (2)

April 16, 2012

How Hurt is Derrick Rose Really?

Derrick Rose's spotty attendance in the starting five for the Chicago Bulls this season has been slightly confusing. First off, he's always been known for his durability. Secondly, each injury was sustained during a game that he completed. Lastly, the games he has missed seem to always coincide with slips by the Miami Heat in the standings. So how hurt is D-Rose?

Prior to this season, Rose had never missed more than three games over the course of a season. In the 2010-11 playoffs, he played with an ankle twist. Handling double-teams from players like LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, Rose still managed to put together admirable games for a team that fell short in the Eastern Conference Finals. He was a shoe-in to be playing each night. So how, suddenly, did he go from being a player who missed games so infrequently to a man missing 1/3 of his team's contests this season?

Some blame the hectic 2011-12 schedule. In a season where the norm is to play an extra game per week, this theory is not without its merit. Perhaps Rose's body has taken enough blows that it simply cannot operate at full speed and the Bulls are protecting their investment. Maybe he really is too hurt to play.

When Derrick Rose returned from his first injury this season — back spasms that sidelined him for 10 games — Chicago fans collectively sighed in relief. He played well for a few games before suffering a new injury — a strained groin. When he came back from that (for an overtime loss against the New York Knicks in which he missed two late free throws that could have iced the game) fans thought, "Rust. He'll be fine." When he then missed another game for a mysterious ankle injury and returned to a two-point, 1-for-13 shooting performance against the Miami Heat, fans didn't know what to think anymore.

Bulls supporters were left to wonder how the back spasms came about. On which play did he pull his groin muscle? When, exactly, did his ankle give? Rose is so competitive and stoic that he rarely puts on a show after taking nicks and bruises on the court, so it's virtually impossible to pin down the exact moment that each occurred. I suppose his toughness is such that he was able to make it to the end of each game with legitimate injuries, but I also wonder if the injuries were "I-need-10-games-off-worthy."

Most importantly, though, is the effect that Rose's absence has had on the Chicago Bulls' season: literally none. Playing 16-7 basketball without their MVP, the Bulls seem determined to win on a nightly basis with or without their superstar. This has made his absence less painful. Most importantly, though, is that they have increased their grip on the Eastern Conference number one seed by 1.5 games since his second injury. In other words, even without Rose, the Heat are losing slightly more frequently than Chicago.

This has brought me to the theory I devised after Rose's first injury: perhaps Thibodeau is playing an even coyer version of Gregg Poppovich, resting his starter for the playoffs. Keep in mind that Deng, another minutes-eater, has also missed some time this season. Imagine this for a second … the Bulls are ahead of Miami by two games in the standings when Rose comes to his coach and says, "My back is stiff today." Coach Thibs says, "We have a cushion, so take the night off."

Bulls win. Heat lose.

Wouldn't it be a lot easier for Thibs to then say to Rose, "Hey, take another day off if you need it." The answer is obvious.

Am I suggesting that Rose is faking his injuries? Of course not. Most people who watched Rose struggle through last Thursday night's Miami contest would attest to the fact that Rose seems to be suffering from some lingering pains; however, wouldn't missing so many games right before the playoffs normally send a team — especially a Chicago team, where fans hit the Def-Con 5 button quicker than the generals in War Games — spinning in a sea of uncertainty?

The Bulls don't seem fazed.

Are they that confident without Rose? I'm not buying it.

Mark my words: Derrick Rose will be on the court for the final nine games this year. He will be back to 100% come playoff time. And the guys whose legs have to guard him in a seven-game series will wish they had a 40-game season, as well.

Posted by Louie Centanni at 12:00 PM | Comments (1)

Flailing Penguins and Fickle Canucks

The NHL playoffs are underway and so far, nobody can complain of boredom. At press time, there had already been seven overtime games and even a couple suspensions, one of which includes a sheet of Plexiglas that has been suspended indefinitely for attacking Boston's David Krejci.

But before we look at the playoffs three most intriguing matchups, I have an observation and an unrelated idea.

Wild Failure

Has there ever been a team in NHL history that took as bad of a dive as the 2011-12 Minnesota Wild? I submit that there has not. On December 10, the Wild were 20-7-3, that's 43 points in 30 games. If you would have told me at that point that they wouldn't make the playoffs, I would have said, "You're crazy." Then, over their next 52 games, the Wild scored 38 points, going 15-29-8. Their final record was 35-36-11. That's 81 points. Ouch.

The Wild went from leading the NHL to clinging to a playoff spot to needing a miracle to even make the playoffs all in about 10 weeks. Despite that, the question is not "how did they fail at the end?" The question is "how did they succeed at the beginning?" Goaltending is how they succeeded. Not scoring goals is how they failed. The Wild have been offensively anemic since the departure of Marion Gaborik at the end of the 2007-08 season. Since Gaborik left, the Wild have not had a player score more than 25 goals in a season.

Scoring two goals is the norm for the Wild. They averaged 2.0 goals scored per game in 2011-12, dead last in the NHL, by a lot. The Kings scored 2.3 goals per game in 29th place. Only five goalies in the league averaged less than 2.0 goals allowed per game. None of them played for the Wild. The Wild ranked 13th in goals against this season with Niklas Backstrom and Josh Harding taking most of the time between the pipes, combining for 2.6 goals against. The first 30 games, however, saw the Wild only allow 2.13 goals per game. That goaltending waned while goals became more elusive and the Wild ended their season looking like a bottom-five team. The Wild need goal scorers and they need them badly.

Home Ice Advantage

I have never understood why 16 teams make the playoffs in the NHL (or the NBA). Do more than half the teams really deserve to make the playoffs? Inevitably, teams that are below .500 will regularly make the playoffs. If they do, they're only disadvantage over the best team in their conference is that the winner of the conference gets four home games, while the team that is the median of the conference gets three home games.

I don't like this. I truly think that 1 vs. 8 matchups should be far more lopsided for the better teams. In a seven-game series, I'd like to see six games at the one seed and one game at the eight seed — the first three to the 1 seed, the fourth to the 8 seed, and the final three (if necessary) to the 1 seed again.

For the 2 vs. 7 matchups, I'd like to see five games at the two seed and two games at the seven seed — the first two at the 2 seed, second two at the 7 seed, and the final three at the two seed again.

The 3 vs. 6 seed and 4 vs. 5 seed can stay as is, considering oftentimes the 6 seed has a better record than the 3 seed. In a season of 82 games, the teams that dominate those 82 games deserve more advantage than they are getting. I see no reason why this shouldn't be implemented as soon as possible.

Penguins vs. Flyers

The most exciting series has been the Penguins vs. the Flyers. The Flyers, down 3-0 in the first game, managed to come back and win in overtime. Game 2 looked to be similar as Pittsburgh was ahead 2-0 in the first period and had a five-on-three for around 30 seconds.

Then it all changed. The Flyers scored shorthanded — two players shorthanded! That simply cannot happen. The game was back and forth through the second period and the Penguins even took an early third period lead, only to have the Flyers answer 17 seconds later and erupt for a 4-goal period, paving the way for the Flyers to take a 2-0 series lead — all on the road.

The Penguins were a favorite for a lot of sports writers, and while they still may win the series, I think they have a number of problems hanging over their heads right now. Their biggest problem is Marc-Andre Fleury. I like Fleury. He's a solid goaltender and will be for years, but where is he mentally right now? He's allowed 11 goals in two games, at home. Getting out of the CONSOL Energy Center might be the best thing for him right now. But we are going to need to see major turnaround if the Penguins have any hope of advancing to the next round, much less contending for Lord Stanley's Cup.

Secondly, the Penguins have this tendency to lose focus and fall asleep. A 3-0 lead in the playoffs with a good goaltender should be insurmountable. It wasn't. A 5-3 for any amount of time should result in a goal. It didn't. It resulted in a short-handed goal for the Flyers at the absolute worst possible time. When the Penguins are focused, they look unstoppable. When they lose focus, they look like an oversized high school team that has succumb to the fact that they are overmatched … but the Penguins aren't overmatched at all. The Penguins failure to win even one of the first two games is simply bizarre. I don't see them turning things around.

Where can the blame fall? Certainly you can pin it on Fleury, but I think we have to look squarely at the Head Coach, Dan Bylsma. In 2009, Bylsma brought the Penguins on a wild ride, scoring 40 points in 25 games, gearing the team up for a playoff run that ended in the hoisting of that beautiful silver cup.

Since then, what has happened? The regular season has gone well. The playoffs have gotten progressively worse. In 2010, the Penguins lost in the conference semifinals to eighth-seeded Montreal Canadiens in seven games. In 2011, they lost in the first round to the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games. In 2012, it looks like another early exit for the Penguins — in less than seven games.

Another first round exit could mark the end for Bylsma, or at least the beginning of the end. His Penguins have too much talent to perform so poorly in the playoffs.

Canucks vs. Kings

What in the world is going on with the Canucks? You're playing the Kings? The only team that scores fewer goals than the Kings is the Wild. Sure, they have great goaltending, but if you're going to lose to them, lose 2-1 or 1-0, not 4-2 … twice … at home!

Let the curse of the Presidents' Trophy continue. I don't know if the Canucks can turn it around, but if not, at least it will save us all from having to hear Roberto Luongo complain about the opposing goaltenders not "pumping his tires."

Bruins vs. Capitals

The Bruins' 1-0 OT win in Game 1 was truly a great game. I was surprised by two things in that first game. Firstly, that the Capitals only managed 17 shots on goal and Alex Ovechkin only had one of those. Secondly, that the Bruins were unable to score in the first three periods on Braden Holtby. The 22-year-old goaltender played phenomenally in Game 1, and he repeated the effort in Game 2 and was rewarded with a win.

The Capitals needed double overtime to defeat the Bruins in Game 2, and Holtby was a major factor once again, recording 43 saves. Holtby vs. Tim Thomas looks to be a matchup that was meant for later in the playoffs, but only one team can get past the conference quarterfinals. David Krejci looks to be okay after the glass attack he suffered after Game 1. He and the offense are going to have to step it up for the Bruins to move on, but my money is still on Tim Thomas. The guy can flat-out shut people down. That being said, I wouldn't risk very much. Holtby looks good.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 11:49 AM | Comments (0)

April 12, 2012

Euro 2012 Preview

It's getting close to time for the second-biggest global soccer spectacle, the Euros. Spain are the defending champions, and solidified their hold as the best team in the world by following that up by winning the World Cup. Will they win three major championships in a row?

Euro 2012 will consist of four four-team groups, although for the next iteration they will expand to 24 nations taking part in the final. The top two teams from each group will advance to the quarterfinals.

Group A is the weakest, with just one team, Greece, that qualified for the last World Cup, where they were bounced in the group stage. They also responded to their surprise championship at Euro 2004 by going winless and drawless in Euro 2008. They still have to be considered the favorites of the group.

The group will also be hotly contested by Russia, ranked just slightly ahead of Greece in the FIFA rankings and coming off a surprise third-place finish in Euro 2008. The winner of this match should take down the group, with the loser finishing second.

That leaves the Czech Republic, who squeaked out of their qualifying group over Scotland after losing to Lithuania early, and home-standing Poland who has fallen to 65th in the world rankings. Neither team will come within two goals of Greece or Russia.

By contrast, Group B is definitely the "Group of Death." All four of the squads are in the top ten in the world rankings, and three are in the top five. By contrast, none of the Group A teams are in the top 10.

The marquee matchup will be Germany, ranked second in the world, against the Netherlands, ranked fourth and losers of the World Cup final to Spain. Right behind them will be Portugal, ranked fifth and with Christiano Ronaldo, whom I can't stand, but I have to say I believe he is the best player in the world right now.

Poor Denmark. Ranked ninth, they would probably win Group A, but will be very fortunate to get a point off this lot.

Group C should be an interesting battle for second place. I don't see Spain dropping any points in their matches, but Italy is looking to improve on a devastating World Cup performance, but they have to do it against Croatia, which is probably the best squad in Europe that is not considered elite. Though they failed to qualify for the 2010 World Cup, they are still ranked 8th in the world, and you might remember their quarterfinal run in the last Euros and their shocking 3rd place finish in the 1998 World Cup.

That leaves Ireland. This is the first time since 1988 they qualified for the Euros, and only their second qualification ever in the competition. Not counting the hosts, they are the lowest ranked team in the competition besides the Czech Republic. Still, if Italy's struggles continue, then they could sneak into the quarterfinals. Their match with Croatia is the key one.

Group D features England as the favorites, who seem to do their best when the chips are down, and worst (finishing behind the U.S. in their 2010 World Cup group, then getting throttled by Germany in their round-of-16 match) when expectations are high. Hard to say whether the chips are down right now or not. They breezed through Euro qualifying, but will be under the services of a new manager who has not yet been named.

If Italy is reeling from a fall from grace, then France is doubly so. They only qualified for the World Cup in 2010 on a blown call on a Thierry Henry goal that he twice touched with his hands, and then limped out of the Group Stage amidst a player revolt. That opens the door for Sweden and Ukraine, who co-hosts the competition with Poland. Both Poland and Ukraine got easy group draws, with Poland having no one particularly tough in their group and Ukraine drawing teams in questionable states of mind. Unlike Poland, I think Ukraine will take advantage of this and finish runner-up in the group.

Final Order Predictions

GROUP A

Greece
Russia
Poland
Czech Republic

GROUP B

Germany
Netherlands
Portugal
Denmark

GROUP C

Spain
Croatia
Italy
Ireland

GROUP D

England
Ukraine
France
Sweden

QUARTERFINALS

Netherlands over Greece
Germany over Russia
Spain over Ukraine
Croatia over England

SEMIFINALS

Netherlands over Spain
Germany over England

FINAL

Netherlands over Germany

The Netherlands only have one major title to their credit, Euro 88. But they have really been knocking on the door, losing the 2010 World Cup finals to Spain in extra time, and seven other top-four finishes in either the Euros or the World Cup since 1974. It's time for them to break through, and the Euros, more often than not, are about surprises.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 9:22 PM | Comments (0)

April 11, 2012

"Logic" Problems?

It happens in every sport and at every level. In the days following a season, pink slips are shown to coaches that haven't lived up to their potential (and haven't built up their teams to said potential). College basketball is no different. Before the NCAA tournament began, schools from the SEC, Big Ten, Conference USA, Atlantic 10, and Missouri Valley — among others — had vacancies on the sidelines.

Most of these positions have been filled, either by coaches stepping up in name recognition (John Groce to Illinois, Tim Miles to Nebraska, Dan Hurley to Rhode Island) or well-traveled assistants getting their first shot (Danny Manning to Tulsa, Jerod Haase to UAB, Rick Ray to Mississippi State). But there are some moves each year — no matter the year — that make you scratch your head. Now, originally, I'm from "Big 12 country." I still follow the conference to this day, and the two positions that became available in-league are the ones that have puzzled me the most.

TCU isn't officially a member of the conference, but that will change well before November. The school isn't really known for its hoops prowess. Only seven different Horned Frog teams have made the tournament, the last time being in 1998. And while they didn't break that streak in 2012, the squad completed their final season in the Mountain West on the rise. In the last three weeks of the regular season, the Frogs beat future NCAA teams Colorado State, New Mexico, and UNLV (and took San Diego State to overtime).

All of this growing success was due to coach Jim Christian. After accumulating nearly 200 wins in 10 years of coaching (at TCU and Kent State), you would have liked to have seen what he could do against Big 12 competition. Instead, Christian (the guy, not the school) decided to head back to his MAC roots and take the opening at Ohio.

People that are smarter than me are saying that Christian felt more comfortable in this world (a la Brad Stevens, Shaka Smart, and Mark Few). The difference is that other coaches choosing to stay on this level did so at the school where they got their start. You usually don't see people step up in conference hierarchy, improve the program, then step back in that hierarchy without getting canned (especially when on the verge of stepping up to the highest tier of "conference respect"). I wonder if Christian would have made the same decision if the school kept its original plan of heading to the Big East next year.

As much of Christian's move confused me, I was even more perplexed a few days earlier when I heard that Kansas State's Frank Martin was heading to South Carolina. Maybe he wanted to get out of the shadow of Bob Huggins. Maybe he wanted to take his trademark glare to the Eastern Seaboard. Maybe he wanted to continue beating down Missouri (and adding to my "fandom" angst). But for whatever reason, Martin left a program he had taken to four NCAA tourneys (in five seasons), 6 tourney wins, and an Elite Eight appearance. Where he landed … a program that has eight overall tournament appearances, no tourney bids since 2004, no tourney wins since 1973, and an average of 11 wins over the last three seasons.

It'll be interesting to find out if Martin can build this team from scratch. However, I still wonder why he made this move. On the court, the Big 12 is led by Kansas. It's always has, and it more than likely will stay that way. The battle for "Who got next?" is up in the air.

Texas has been good, but not dominant. Baylor is trying to wedge their way into that status. Texas A&M and Missouri are gone. Everyone else has been inconsistent. The situation was perfect for Martin to solidify the Wildcats as the second banana of the conference. Compared to most other leagues, being in the top two here ain't bad.

There are numerous reasons why we take one opportunity over another. I can't peek into Christian's or Martin's heads to figure out their thought processes. But it'll be intriguing to follow them to find out if their decisions are ultimately the most fruitful ones.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 5:00 PM | Comments (0)

U.S. Marching on Against All Odds

When USA Davis Cup team began last Friday their encounter against the French, it was almost like a flashback to two months ago. On February 7th, Mardy Fish walked on the court to play the first match against the Swiss player Stanislas Wawrinka in a first-round Davis Cup tie in which the Americans were clearly the underdogs. The match took place in Switzerland, on red clay, and the Swiss team was going to profit from the services of Roger Federer, appearing for the first time in a first-round main draw tie for his country since 2004. Two days later, the Americans stunned the world by winning the first three matches and declaring victory before even Sunday came around.

Fifty-seven days later, when the young American Ryan Harrison walked to the court to play the first match of the tie against France in the second round, it seemed as if the match against Switzerland never took place, and in the eyes of the tennis world, the Americans were once again supposed to lose. It was again an away match, this time on the red clay courts of the Monte-Carlo Country Club. The Americans did not even have Mardy Fish this time around, and his absence was a bigger blow to USA than the absence of Gaëlle Monfils was to the French, who were able to replace him with a regular top-20 player in Gilles Simon.

Just like two months ago, USA walked away with the upset, beating the French 3-2 on their home court. The tie generated little interest in the USA, only a few reporters making the trip overseas to cover the tie directly. French commentators expressed their surprise on how little "Americans cared" about this tie. Unluckily for them, captain Jim Courier and the American team did care, a lot, and that is what mattered the most on the court.

Harrison gave a valiant effort against Tsonga despite losing in four sets. Simon and John Isner were to follow. The French were already talking about whether they could close the door on the Americans Saturday by winning the doubles match, never mind that Isner took out Roger Federer on red clay two months before, recorded an ATP Tour win over the world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, and cracked the top 10 for the first time in his career, all during the first quarter of 2012.

Not everyone overlooked the giant Isner: one of the headlines in the program for the day at the club read "Isner: un building made in USA" — surely there is no need to translate that one! It talked about how the sheer power of Isner's strokes and serve can throw his opponents off, never allowing them to settle into their element. That is precisely what took place in the next match; Simon submitted to the power of the "building" over and over again, and was defeated in three sets.

The worry was planted in the French's minds. Guy Forget, the experienced French Captain, was well aware of the danger facing his team, as he continuously reminded the media of how dangerous this "fresh" American team could be, days prior to the beginning of the tie. His worries were justified on Saturday when Bob and Mike Brian took out Michael Llodra and Julien Bennetteau, who are both excellent doubles players. Llodra summarized what happened in a concise sentence: "we took it on the teeth."

When Sunday rolled around, home fans were still optimistic. After all, their star, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, has had a more accomplished career than Isner, and the match was on red clay, which seems to be, for many years now, the emblematic quote for saying "Americans can't win." The "building," however, had other thoughts.

Isner took it to Tsonga at every stage of the first two sets, outplaying the French player even from the baseline in many instances. Down two sets to none, the crowd was bewildered, for the first time facing the reality that they were about to see Guy Forget's last day as the captain of the French Davis Cup team; he announced previously that he was retiring after this year.

Tsonga did provide them with a ray of hope by winning the third set. During the break at the end of the third set, the French's belief was back. A couple of the players on the French bench who were sparring partners for their team, Michael Llodra, and French Tennis Federation President Jean Gachassin were completely elated in their short interviews about that moment, and in their excitement, one of them went as far as saying that Isner was now "done." Once again, Isner was being underestimated, and once again, he proved everyone wrong.

He walked back out and got the break immediately to go up 3-0 in the fourth set, never looking back. From there until the end of the match, the big shots kept raining down relentlessly on Tsonga. At one point, the French player felt so helpless that he was heard murmuring, "He [Isner] has an answer to everything I throw at him, and he throws back some at me to which I have no answer!" At the end of the match, U.S. Davis Cup team was celebrating their second improbable victory in a row in two months. Jim Courier admitted later in an interview that when he first saw the draw, he was already thinking about hoping to stay in the World Group at the end of the year.

In the semifinals, Courier and his squad must face Spain, once again in an away match that is surely going to take place on red clay. They will again be considered huge underdogs against a Spanish team that has not lost at home since 1999. Will Spain underestimate the Americans like the Swiss and the French did? Probably not this time around, even though the U.S. team would probably feel more in their element if they were greatly underestimated!

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:54 AM | Comments (0)

April 10, 2012

The Decline of Left-Handed Batters

Once upon a time, Major League Baseball was dominated by left-handed hitters. From the early 1900s on through the conclusion of World War II and the end of the color line, almost all of baseball's greatest hitters swung left-handed: Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Home Run Baker, Eddie Collins, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mel Ott, Ted Williams, Stan Musial ... I mean, holy cow.

Yeah, there are some great right-handed batters from that era: Rogers Hornsby, Jimmie Foxx, some smaller stars. But the big guns were almost all lefties. That is emphatically not the case today. More and more, right-handed batters stand out at the plate. I'm not saying that left-handed hitters are disappearing, but they're clearly not dominating the game the way they once did.

There's a simple way to show this: rWAR. Baseball-reference.com provides yearly rankings based on Offensive Wins Above Replacement. For decades, the list is topped by left-handers, and that's no longer the case. I freely admit I'm cherry-picking these dates, but from 1911-1948, the top three in Offensive WAR included 82 left-handed hitters, 31 right-handed hitters, and one switch-hitter (Augie Galan in 1945, because I know you were wondering). That's more than 2½ times as many left-handed hitters as right-handed.

In the 63 seasons since, the top three has included 113 right-handed hitters, 66 left-handed hitters, and 11 switch-hitters. That's 71% more righties than lefties. Even if you set the dates to historical events — say, the start of the modern World Series to the end of the color line (1903-46) instead of 1911-48 — that's basically the same thing. The percentages don't change very much. We're talking about 100 years here. This isn't just Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb skewing the rankings, any more than it's Albert Pujols skewing them now. Left-handed batters just don't dominate the way they used to.

Below are the top 15 in wRAA (Weighted Runs Above Average) from the last 20 seasons (1992-2011), via FanGraphs. Left-handed batters are listed with an asterisk, and switch-hitters in italics.

1. Barry Bonds*
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. Jim Thome*
5. Albert Pujols
6. Frank Thomas
7. Todd Helton*
8. Chipper Jones
9. Gary Sheffield
10. Jeff Bagwell
11. Larry Walker*
12. Edgar Martinez
13. Jason Giambi*
14. Lance Berkman
15. Vladimir Guerrero

Four of the next five are lefties, but the list is composed mostly of right-handed hitters. Do the same thing for any period before 1960, though, and you'll get a list heavily populated by hugely successful left-handed batters. Here's 1911-30:

1. Babe Ruth*
2. Ty Cobb*
3. Tris Speaker*
4. Rogers Hornsby
5. Eddie Collins*
6. Harry Heilmann
7. Joe Jackson*
8. Lou Gehrig*
9. George Sisler*
10. Zack Wheat*
11. Ken Williams*
12. Al Simmons
13. Jack Fournier*
14. Hack Wilson
15. Jim Bottomley*

That's 11 left-handers, including all of the top three and eight of the top 10. From 1931-50, you get 10 lefties in the top 15, including three of the top four. Here, easier in a chart:

Top 15 in wRAA

This is not a sudden, dramatic decline. But it's not a fluke, either, and it appears to be accelerating. In the last seven seasons, the top three in Offensive rWAR has included 19 right-handed hitters and just one each switch-hitter (Carlos Beltran in '06) and left-handed (Josh Hamilton in '10).

So the dominance of left-handed batters has waned. But why? The short answer is: I don't know. But I have several theories.

1. Increase in switch-hitting

There still are not a lot of switch-hitters in baseball, but there are more than ever before. In the past, it was not unusual for naturally right-handed players to bat left-handed. Most of those guys are switch-hitters now. Right-handed players who hit left-handed included Home Run Baker, Yogi Berra, Wade Boggs, George Brett, Rod Carew, Mickey Cochrane, Eddie Collins, Charlie Gehringer, Eddie Mathews, Johnny Mize, Joe Morgan, and many others. It's far less common today for a right-hander to drop his natural preference at the plate entirely, so some potentially great left-handers have instead become great switch-hitters.

Prince Fielder and Joey Votto both throw right-handed but hit from the other side of the plate, so this practice obviously isn't extinct, but the trend is more toward switch-hitting than just batting lefty. In 1951, the top 50 in OPS+ included one switch-hitter, Sam Jethroe. In 2011, the top 50 in OPS+ included nine switch-hitters.

2. Base-running

The statistics I've been citing — wRAA from Fan Graphs and Offensive WAR from Baseball Reference — both include base-running, something not affected by which side of the plate you bat from. The wRAA leaders from the '80s included Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines, good batters who made a lot of plate appearances and drew a lot of walks, but also two of the most accomplished base stealers in history. The inclusion of base-running probably skews the numbers a little.

3. Left-handed relief pitchers

Relief pitching is a bigger part of the game than ever before, and many pitching changes are designed to gain the platoon advantage. Research suggests that most of a left-handed hitter's advantage at the plate results from facing right-handed pitchers. Today's left-handed batters make more plate appearances against left-handed pitching than their predecessors, because of the prevalence of micro-managed pitching changes.

* * *

What does this all mean? Probably not very much, other than that it's interesting. The waning dominance of left-handed hitters is not occurring quickly enough that it has any practical implications for scouts or GMs or fantasy baseball managers. And it's not as though the advantages enjoyed by left-handed batters have vanished; those players still enjoy an edge, because every player faces more right-handed pitchers than left. But the advantages have diminished, and the gap is slowly closing.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:02 PM | Comments (0)

Canada's Cup?

It's been almost 20 years since a country that can truly appreciate it won the Stanley Cup. The World Series has been won in Canada more recently the holy grail of hockey.

In 1993, an underdog Montreal Canadiens team led by Vincent Damphousse and a young Patrick Roy surprised all, including a high-powered L.A. Kings squad that was The Great One's team en route to a gritty, overtime-goal-filled Stanley Cup run. Since then, there have been many finalists from the Great White North, but alas, no champions.

This is difficult for many to accept due to the vast difference in the way Canada and the U.S. view the NHL and what its championship means to the region and the nation. Since that time, we have seen the Dallas Stars, Carolina Hurricanes, and Anaheim Ducks win Stanley Cups that may very well have gone unnoticed outside the home arenas in which they played. Also since that time, we have seen the Vancouver Canucks (twice), the Calgary Flames, Edmonton Oilers, and Ottawa Senators all come up short in their bid to bring the Cup back to its homeland. Even worse was that all of these misadventures besides Ottawa went 7 tantalizing games before finally landing in U.S. hands.

Since 1993, we have seen curses broken in New York (54 years), Detroit (40 years), Chicago (47 years), Boston (39 years), and Ray Bourque (22 years). Still none for a Canadian team.

In 2006, Edmonton became the first eighth-seed in any sport to reach the championship round. They fell behind 3 games to 1, but won a compelling fifth game in overtime and a Game 6 at home to force a Game 7 before finally falling by the wayside. The 2004 Flames seemed destined to win the Cup on home ice in Game 6. There was even evidence that a third period puck bounced off a skate and may have gone over the Lightning goal line for a brief moment before being scooped up and whistled. The play was ruled a save and was never reviewed upstairs. Calgary lost that game in double overtime on a Martin St. Louis' top shelf wrister and then lost Game 7 in Tampa, also by 1 goal.

Last year's defeat had to be particularly painful as the Vancouver Canucks hosted Game 7 of the Cup Finals and had won each home game of the series prior to Game 7, and won all of them in dramatic fashion. Unfortunately for them, Roberto Luongo sprung too many leaks in that series, and the more talented Canucks were capsized by a gritty Bruins team with a hot goaltender. Rumor has it the Vancouver fans don't take these kinds of things very well.

Vancouver has never won a cup in their 42-year history, despite three Finals appearances. However, they may feel as if they have to win for more than just their own sake. The current President's Trophy winners find themselves this year as virtually Canada's only hope to win the Cup.

This second consecutive President's Trophy validates the notion that Vancouver has the most talented and consistent team in hockey, and yet with that Game 7 defeat from last year still fresh in their minds, they may also be the most driven. Their twin stars have also been driven by a unique opportunity. Daniel and Henrik Sedin may be the only twins to have played as teammates for one team as long as they have. Both were drafted in 1999 by the Canucks and have remained in Vancouver where they not only thrived, but dominated.

In 2012, Henrik led the league in assists and was voted the Canucks' MVP, while Daniel carved a spot for himself as an all-star before being knocked out on March 21 with a concussion. The team is hopeful he will be able to return during their first round series against the Los Angeles Kings.

The only looming threat out of the West for Vancouver is the surprising St. Louis Blues, a mere 2 points behind in the standings. The Blues are also one of the youngest teams in the postseason and this may work against them considering the vast playoff experience on the Canucks if the two were to meet in the Western Conference Finals.

And yet the juiciest matchups loom in the Cup Finals for Vancouver. Assuming for a moment that the Canucks can survive the threat of an upset from the Kings or perennially dangerous Red Wings in round two, the top two seeds in the East are the New York Rangers and the Boston Bruins. Either of these matchups conjure up memories of epic seven-game Finals thrillers from both 1994 and 2011 in which the Canucks fell just short against both opponents, and agonizingly so.

After all, if they are going to get this monkey off their backs and carve their names on the Cup for themselves, and for Canada, they might as well score some payback along the way.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 11:22 AM | Comments (0)

April 9, 2012

A Bear in the Clutch, and a Bull Under Heat

First thing's first — for those Chicago Bulls fans who saw the title and excerpt and immediately got angry enough to make Mike Ditka blush, calm down. It's not that Derrick Rose is a bad player, or even that he's not an all-star. The problem I have with the reigning MVP is that he's not MVP material.

He had less assists and a lower field goal percentage than fellow PG Chris Paul. He didn't lead the league in PPG, APG, or any other offensive or defensive category. In fact, the thing he came close to leading the league in was turnovers-per-game. His plus/minus was 10th in the league, and not even the best on his own team.

All this to say, a guy top-10 in the league in multiple categories is certainly good, but when the advanced statistics indicate he may not even be the best player on his own team, it's hard to figure out what makes him the MVP in the minds of voters.

Don't get me wrong, Derrick Rose is good. Bad players don't average 25 points and 8 assists per game. It's just that truly elite players don't average almost as many turnovers as rebounds in the same game, or fail to provide as much of a lift as other players on their own team.

This might go against conventional wisdom, and fly directly in the face of the hype on ESPN or even around the water cooler, but LeBron James is currently one of the most clutch players in the NBA. Don't believe me?

If you don't, it's probably because Kobe Bryant popped into your head when you saw an article mentioning MVP accolades and shots in the clutch. Kobe is a surefire Hall of Famer — and he is a career 28% shooter on game-winning shots in the playoffs. LeBron James shoots 42% on such attempts.

I've used that stat in conversation with some friends before, and they jumped right into the argument of "but Kobe takes more shots at the end of games, and LeBron passes the ball away." To be fair, if that were accurate, it would be a good point. But LeBron has attempted a game-winning shot in 13% of his career playoff games, while Kobe has done so in 12% of such games.

In other words, LeBron James attempts more game winning playoff shots, and with a much higher success rate, than Kobe Bryant. Without a large enough sample size from Derrick Rose (who famously missed two free throws with the national championship on the line) yet, I'm going to have to give him the back seat to LeBron in terms of clutch play.

So after all of this, it's really no mystery why LeBron James is clearly ahead of Derrick Rose in the MVP race. What continues to baffle me, however, is why Derrick Rose is considered a top-tier player. Top-10? Maybe. Top-five? Not a chance. In my mind, he's probably only the third- or fourth-best PG in the league.

That may make him an all-star, but if the voters would start looking a little deeper, he probably wouldn't be in the MVP conversation again.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 12:22 PM | Comments (5)

April 7, 2012

Razorbacks Getting Their Due With Petrino

At first glance, Arkansas head football coach Bobby Petrino's April 1 motorcycle crash looked to be no more than an unfortunate accident. Petrino suffered broken ribs, facial injuries, and cracked vertebrae, which requires him to wear a neck brace.

However, facts that have come to light over the past several days have turned a seemingly simple story into a full-blown soap opera. Unfortunately for Petrino, his family, and the Razorbacks, the characters and plot are real.

When Petrino initially informed school officials of the accident, he claimed to be alone when he lost control of his motorcycle and crashed. The university subsequently released a statement supporting their coach's story. An Arkansas State Police report released several days later painted a much different picture. According to the report, Petrino was riding with Jessica Dorrell, a 25-year-old former Razorback volleyball player whom Petrino had recently hired as the football team's student athlete development coordinator.

Shortly after the police report became public, Petrino issued a statement apologizing for not being completely forthcoming about the details of the accident, and admitted he had an "inappropriate relationship" with Dorrell. His concern, he said, was to protect his family and keep the inappropriate relationship, along with Dorrell's name, from becoming public.

In his statement, Petrino apologized to his family, Razorback Athletic Director Jeff Long, the school's Board of Trustees, administration, his coaching staff, student athletes, even the entire state of Arkansas. He pledged to fully cooperate with the school during its investigation of the incident, and hopes he can repair the damage he has done to his family and return as Arkansas's head coach.

The Razorbacks must have known about Petrino's character flaws when they hired him away from the Atlanta Falcons in 2007. His time as Falcons head coach was closer to a cup of coffee than a prolonged visit, lasting just 13 games. The Falcons were a miserable 3-10 during that stretch before Petrino threw in the towel to take the Arkansas job.

Granted, Petrino lost his starting quarterback, Michael Vick, before the season began, when he was suspended for his role in a dogfighting ring. The team also suffered numerous injuries to key players. Petrino's biggest enemy, though, was himself. Players and front office personnel criticized him publicly and privately for his autocratic style of coaching and aloof personality. When it became apparent he was headed to Fayettville, Petrino didn't even bother to address his team and give them the news in person. He chose instead to post a 78-word letter in the locker room informing them of his departure.

Before his stint with the Falcons, Petrino was head coach at the University of Louisville, where he compiled a 41-9 record and an Orange Bowl win in four seasons. But that success was tainted by controversy. Petrino had discipline problems with some of his players, and at one point went behind the back of athletic director Tom Jurich to meet with a headhunting party from Auburn.

All this matters little to Jeff Long. The Razorback AD is now faced with his own Petrino scandal. The fact Petrino cheated on his wife with a former Razorback athlete and current employee is bad enough. A greater concern for Long is that his head football coach lied to him about the accident, not to mention the embarrassment the university must now endure.

If Petrino had an average or losing record, firing him would be a no-brainer. Long's decision will be more difficult based on Petrino's 21-5 record and two bowl appearances the past two seasons. The team is poised to contend for its first national championship since 1964, when Jerry Jones was its co-captain.

Tempting as that is to consider, Long has to think of the big picture. Petrino's actions have seriously damaged his credibility, not only to his boss and the university, but his current players and even future recruits. The SEC is one of the most competitive conferences in college sports, and you can bet rival coaches will be quick to point out the scandal to every recruit thinking of coming to Arkansas. Long's decision may not only determine Petrino's future, but his own. Time will tell.

Posted by Stephen Kerr at 8:59 PM | Comments (1)

Foul Territory: Drug Users, Bounty Abusers

* Centerpiece of Attention, or Magic Man-ipulate — Orlando Magic head coach Stan Van Gundy said Dwight Howard wants him fired, according to team management. Van Gundy said he will under no circumstances resign, because one quitter on the team is enough.

* No Rest For the Wicked — Gregg Williams urged Saints players to injure 49ers in a pre-game speech before their January playoff game, according to footage from documentary filmmaker Sean Pamphilon. Williams also implied that he would pay the bounty for a hit on San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith. Williams' motivational speech, however heinous, apparently wasn't good enough to spur the Saints to the win, but it did, surprisingly, spark a few revolutions in the Middle East.

* Kentucky Reign-Out, or Fair Well — Kentucky beat Kansas 67-59 on Monday night to win the NCAA championship in New Orleans. The Wildcats completed a 38-2 season on the way to the school's eighth title. Most of the Wildcat's starters are expected to skip their remaining years of eligibility, as well as the rest of the spring semester.

* Rx in Effect, or No. 2 NFL Pick, Public Enemy No. 1, Turning Over the Same Leaf — Ryan Leaf was arrested on Monday for the second time in three days, charged with burglarizing a home and stealing prescription drugs. When confronted, Leaf asked police, "Is this some kind of bust?" Police quickly replied, "Yes, especially to the San Diego Chargers."

* Say it Ain't So, Joe — Joe Flacco told a Baltimore radio station on Tuesday that he thinks he is the "best" quarterback in the NFL. Flacco also said he still thinks Muhammad Ali is the "greatest."

* Wonder-Lack, or and Everyone Thought Vince Young Couldn't Be Made to Look Like a Genius — Former LSU cornerback Morris Claiborne scored a 4 out 50 on the Wonderlic test. Claiborne is the highest-rated cornerback in the NFL draft, but, unfortunately for him, once the 2012 season starts, he's likely to be tested often.

* Truck of the Irish, or Juggernauts — The Baylor women completed an undefeated season, whipping Notre Dame 80-61 to win the NCAA championship. The Bears finished 40-0 to become the first women's team to go undefeated. Like the Kentucky men's team, the Baylor women plan to graduate to bigger and better things: they'll just do so with a college degree.

* The Lions Just Clinched the THC North Division, or For the Lions, This Problem is Becoming "Chronic" — Detroit Lions defensive tackle Nick Fairly was arrested Tuesday in Mobile, Alabama on a second-degree marijuana possession charge. Fairly is the second Lion to face a marijuana charge in less than a month, as running back Mikel Leshoure was busted eating marijuana during a traffic stop in Michigan on March 12. In related news, it was learned that Kid Rock holds his season tickets with a roach clip.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:15 PM | Comments (0)

April 5, 2012

Breaking Down the Masters 2012

It's the beginning of April now, and so what better time than to look at the candidates for the 2012 Masters in Augusta. Last year saw the complete and utter meltdown of tournament favorite Rory McIlroy and saw Charl Schwartzel claim his first and only major.

This year it is tough to pick out anyone as an out and out winner. Last year's four majors were filled with surprises, record-breaking rounds, and first-time winners, and this year could easily be more of the same.

With that in mind, I've made some conservative picks, and a few that a little more "out there."

Title Tip: Rory McIlroy

McIlroy vowed not to collapse in the same way he did last year. You could see in the way he was playing, every shot was painful to hit. Not in an injured kind of way, but it was painful as a spectator. It must have been agonizing for him. Had that been my round, I'd have thrown my trust five iron into the nearest water hazard and stormed off the course. It's a credit to him that he actually persevered and finished.

He bounced back, though, and he recently reached number one in the world, if only for two weeks. If he can make a repeat performance of his first couple of rounds at Augusta last year, he could be well in with a shout. No longer does the Northern Irishman let leads slip.

He's my pick for the tournament.

Title Tip: Luke Donald

For the current world number one, this would be a maiden major. He's never done better than tied third in a major, and that's what he's managed at Augusta. But that was back in 2005, back when there was no pressure.

This time, though, he says he doesn't even need to play his best to win. He has his strategy, and that will be enough. Must be the confidence of a number one talking, because I think he does need to play his best. The other main challengers aren't going to hand him anything. He's got what it takes, but he needs to find some brilliant form.

If he plays his best, start to finish, he could scrape home a win.

Outside Chance: Charl Schwartzel

It would be rude not to pick the defending champion, but it's difficult to see Schwartzel taking home the title again. It's not that he's not good enough, he's done it before, but it was a solid round that did it for him, as everyone else collapsed. This year, it'll be those with a little extra flair that will prevail.

Outside Chance: Tiger Woods

Tiger's performance two weeks ago at Bay Hill was enough to win him the title, and he claims to be back on form. Better, he claims to be in a world-beating mood, and in the same form that won him his first Masters in 2001.

Tiger has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons these last two years. Maybe he can pull it together and get a headline back in his favor. For me, he's an outside chance. He could blow it early on, but if not, he's not one to crumble under pressure in the late stages.

Outside Chance: Lee Westwood

You can't really just come out and say, "No, the world number three stands no chance." But that's how it feels. He came second at the Masters just two years ago, and he's consistently been one of the top guys on tour for a while now, so he does have a shot. He's been number one on more than one occasion.

But that's the problem though. A very consistent, and a very solid player. There's not really much in the way of a spark, or creative play. He needs to produce that this time around. He needs to maybe take a few more risks and hope they pay off.

Outside Chance: Phil Mickelson

There have been too many first-time winners in a row, and whilst a lot of people are tipping Stricker or Mahan. Steve Stricker; a player who hasn't even come close to a major since the '90s, and Hunter Mahan; who's never done better than tied sixth, and never managed better than tied for eighth at the Masters.

Phil Mickelson has won majors before, and more than once. He's won the Masters three times. Most recently in 2010. He might not be on the best run of form at the moment, but he's always picked it up for the majors, managing tied second or better in all four. The Masters is as much his turf as it is anyone's. The big lefty will be looking to beat Schwartzel, along with everyone else, and claim back what is his.

Dark Horse: Martin Kaymer

Kaymer is a little like McIlroy. He's been number one, and he's won a major before. So the pressure isn't on for him to break his duck. He might sound like a safe bet to go deep, and maybe even win it.

Think again. He might be number four in the world now, but he's never done anything of note in Augusta. He's never reached the final day. Maybe the course just doesn't suit his play, but with wet and windy conditions this year, an adventurous and long-hitting Kaymer might have the edge over more experienced tour members.

Don't expect Kaymer to win, but expect the unexpected from him. This year, he could go a lot deeper into the tournament than he has before — maybe somewhere around tied for ninth?

Posted by Angus Saul at 9:15 PM | Comments (0)

Four Things Missing From the Final Four

After watching this year's Final Four and NCAA championship game, I started to think back on the games and asked myself, "What was different about these games from previous ones?" At first, there was no clear answer; but the more I thought, the more I started to reminisce about Final Fours of the past, both recent and distant, and the more I started to notice the differences. Five of them, in fact. Not all the differences are pronounced — some are subtle — but they all are things I decided I missed from this year's tournament finale.

1. Duke

I missed the Blue Devils being in the Final Four, not because I'm a Duke fan, but because I'm quite the opposite. Without them playing on the last weekend, I really had no one to root against. I can't really pinpoint why, but I really don't care for them. I like Coach K, and I've like some of the players his program has produced, but I just can't root for them. In my sports fandom, they're like the Yankees or the Raiders. I couldn't root for them if my life depended on it.

It's probably because of their success overall. Since 1986, they've been to the Final Four more times (11 compared to eight for both Kansas and North Carolina) and won more titles (four compared to three for UNC, Kentucky and UConn) than any other school. The fact that they weren't on the cusp of a title only to lose made the Final Four a little uninteresting. Sure, it was great to see them get knocked out of the tournament early, but there's nothing like seeing a team you dislike come so close to winning it all and then get knocked off. Unfortunately for me, that wasn't the case this year.

2. A Mid-Major

After having Butler in the Final Four the two previous years, VCU joining them last year, and George Mason in 2006, there weren't any unheralded underdogs to root for this year. Let's be honest — most college basketball fans would give one of our eyes to see (pun partially intended) a mid-major win it all, something that hasn't been done since Marquette's upset of North Carolina in 1977 and only eight times since the tournament's inception in 1939.

Everyone loves to see the little guy win, especially when not too many people give them a chance. It would have been great to see Ohio or Marquette win their Sweet 16 games and then pull off the upsets in the Elite Eight. One of these days, we'll see a smaller school win it all, but we'll have to wait another year for that chance.

3. Billy Packer

Say what you will about the guy, but he was a genius at analyzing a basketball game. Sure, he had his controversies and grating personality, but he knew what he was talking about. And, from a former broadcaster's perspective, he actually took a breath occasionally to let the other announcers talk. I have nothing against Clark Kellogg as an analyst — I think he does a fine job — but the dude needs to give space for someone else to get in a comment.

I noticed it the most during the championship game when it seemed like it was the Clark Kellogg Show with two other guys who happened to have microphones. During the Final Four games, Steve Kerr actually had some good things to say, but he was stifled by Kellogg on Monday night. Another thing that drove me nuts was Kellogg's need to validate everything that Kerr said — "That's exactly right, Steve," or "I agree with you completely, Steve." Let the guy have his own comment, for Pete's sake! But I digress.

Billy Packer was a staple of Final Four TV, doing color commentating for 33 consecutive years before CBS gave him the pink slip in 2008. While the majority of those years were spent in a two-man booth, he still knew when to speak and when not to, and his comments were always geared toward the finer aspects of the game, not simply pointing out the obvious, which seems to be a trend among network analysts these days.

4. Third-Place Game

I know this hasn't been played since 1981, and it was never televised, but just having that one extra game for the Final Four losers to play was actually pretty cool. It gave those two schools that had worked so hard to get to that point one final shot at a positive end to their season. Besides, in this day of televising every sporting event known to man, it would be a money-maker for the NCAA and the network to have one extra game to show on TV and sell tickets for. It would also give the halftime show crew a little more to talk about ("Let's recap the third-place game played earlier this afternoon…").

I think those kids deserve another game — heck, why do you think the NIT has stuck around and the CBI and CIT were created? People love to watch college basketball, no matter the matchups or what's at stake, and kids love to play basketball.

So while this year's Final Four and championship game weren't as compelling to me as some in years past, it still was a good weekend of college basketball. The Kansas/Ohio State game was particularly enjoyable, and the title game was exciting at times. And while two of my four "misses" from this year's games won't ever come back, maybe the other two will return next year and give me even more reasons to love the Final Four. But, then again, who needs any more reasons?

Posted by Adam Russell at 5:17 PM | Comments (0)

April 4, 2012

After the Madness: Final Thoughts

Sixty-eight teams began a trek for a national title three weeks ago. And to the surprise of few, the heavily favored Kentucky Wildcats were the one team left standing at the end.

As we put a close to the 2011-2012 season, we need to remember the things we've learned from this season, as well as this tournament and get excited already for the 2012-13 slate.

We'll start with the two teams who played Monday night. First things first, you have to tip your hat to Kentucky's John Calipari. The coach, who lost in the 1996 Final Four to Rick Pitino and in the 2008 title game to Bill Self and Kansas, had to defeat both coaches this time to finally capture his first national title.

John Calipari's system works. Yes, he runs his program like a basketball factory, where players are recycled each year for the newest high school phenoms. Academic progress seems completely foreign to Calipari, who said during his post-game press conference that he hoped Kentucky had six NBA first round picks this year. If they did, no doubt the Wildcats will continue their recruiting dominance and remain a consistent threat to win it all every year.

UK wanted national titles. Shoot, they wanted to get back to national prominence after the epic failures of Billy Gillispie in Lexington. They collected on their massive investment in Calipari. And, unless the NCAA changes their rules concerning the APR and players leaving early, the dividends for Big Blue Nation will keep on rolling.

As for Kansas and Bill Self, they'll be back. Count on it.

While Calipari might've been holding the trophy at the end, Bill Self did an outstanding coaching job this season. Kansas wasn't predicted to go this deep in the preseason. The Jayhawks battled with Missouri in two incredible matchups to scratch out their eighth straight conference title. KU was a good team to start. However, under Self's guidance, they finished a great one. Thomas Robinson was every bit the interior force the Jayhawks needed, Jeff Withey became a blocking machine, and Elijah Johnson became a deadly offensive target. Tyshawn Taylor won't be back next year, but Kansas will reload and continue to hold serve in the Big 12.

Who was the coach of the year this season? My pick goes to Indiana's Tom Crean. Believe me, there was more beneath the surface of Indiana's 27-9 year. Crean left a great situation at Marquette to repair the ruins of the IU program that Kelvin Sampson left behind. Crean didn't take shortcuts to lay down a new foundation and brick by brick, he has brought the Hoosier program back to the national picture. IU was relentlessly tough at home, fought valiantly to the Sweet 16 and brought waves of hope for next year throughout the state.

On the flip side, it looks as if UConn's Jim Calhoun is nearing the end of his career. Maybe it will be next season, or a couple of years from now. With Calhoun, one never knows for sure. However, UConn's ban from the tournament next year, mixed with the academic issues that the Huskies have faced and are continuing to face, as well as Calhoun's health problems say that the timing might be right to pass the torch on in Storrs. Calhoun's tenure is one for the ages. No doubt, his three national titles have defined his time at UConn and etched the Huskies among the great programs in college basketball. However, the neglect of the student in student-athlete has put a major tarnish on his legacy. No doubt, Calhoun wants to leave the right way. The question is whether he will be able to accomplish such an exit.

While coaching changes are natural in the postseason, one last thing to note is the lack of mid-major coaches heading for jobs in major conferences. Shaka Smart again chose to stay at VCU. Gregg Marshall announced he wasn't leaving Wichita State. Brad Stevens fended off rumors again and is holding firm at Butler. The exception to the rule: Ohio's John Groce, who left for Illinois. On a side note, with Shaka Smart and John Groce, is there any doubt Illinois wants to shake up the tempo of Big Ten basketball?

Despite the lack of mid-majors going deep in the tournament this year, the parody of college basketball is still alive and well, not only in talent but also in coaching salaries. VCU, Wichita State, and Butler are basketball schools willing to pay well to keep quality coaches. And Smart, Marshall, and Stevens enjoy the job security while knowing they can still recruit talent that can take them pretty far come March. This simple fact should keep hope alive for those who enjoy mid-majors spoiling the Big Dance. It should also send a red flag to major schools, who now realize they need to work that much harder to land a quality coach should they decide it's time for a change.

The 2012-13 season will bring a lot of questions and hopefully a lot of suspense. But for now we'll set it all aside in anticipation and let Big Blue Nation savor the spoils of victory.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 6:37 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 6

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Tony Stewart — Stewart salvaged a solid seventh-place finish at Martinsville after a wild finish scrambled the finishing order and gave Stewart's teammate Ryan Newman the win. Stewart moved up one place into a tie for third in the Sprint Cup point standings, and trails Greg Biffle by 12.

"Some people would say Ryan 'bullied' his way to the win," Stewart said. "Those people would all share the last name 'Logano.'

"I guess you could say Ryan stole the win. He took the win right out from under the noses of Hendrick Motorsports. As a result of Ryan's win, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson should visit Outback Steakhouse, Ryan's sponsor, and get a free Bloomin' Onion. Let me reiterate: it's free, so they won't have to steal it."

2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt made a risky move to pit during a caution with three laps to go, but the move paid off after a disastrous restart for Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. When the dust settled, Ryan Newman had stolen the win, and Earnhardt had a third, his third top-5 finish of the year.

"Hendrick cars were running 1-2-3 with two laps to go," Earnhardt said. "Hendrick's 200th victory was so close, we could smell it. Oddly enough, it smelled like a Bloomin' Onion from Outback Steakhouse.

3. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth posted his third top-five finish of the year with a fourth in the Goody's Fast Relief 500 at Martinsville. He is now tied for third in the point standings, 12 behind Roush Fenway Racing teammate Greg Biffle.

"Recklessness caused pure chaos at Martinsville," Kenseth said, "which led to an amazing finish. What's more amazing? The fact that I used 'recklessness,' 'chaos,' and 'Martinsville' in a sentence, and didn't mention Brian Vickers."

4. Greg Biffle — Biffle maintained the Sprint Cup points lead with a 13th-place finish at Martinsville, one lap down. He holds a six-point lead over the hard-charging Dale Earnhardt, Jr., who finished third.

"David Reutimann was clearly driving the 'Car of Tomorrow,'" Biffle said, "because at that rate of speed, it would have been Monday before he completed 500 laps."

5. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson's epic duel with Hendrick teammate Jeff Gordon was interrupted two laps from the end by the stalled No. 10 car of David Reutimann, which forced the race's penultimate caution. On the ensuing restart, Johnson and Gordon spun after Clint Bowyer's dive to the bottom, assisted by a bump from Ryan Newman, caused short-track chaos. Johnson limped home with a 12th-place finish.

"Newman got lucky," Johnson said, "and I can live with that. As my five Sprint Cup titles can attest, I'd rather be good than lucky. But give Newman credit. For someone with no neck, he sure did stick his out."

6. Kevin Harvick — Harvick started second on the grid at Martinsville and led 21 early laps before his day went sour. He finished 19th, two laps down, and tumbled one spot in the point standings into a tie for third.

"We totally missed the setup on the No. 29 'Budweiser is Back' Chevrolet," Harvick said. "As a result, my pit crew sent me out on the track with half-hearted encouragement, saying 'This Dud's For You.' I can't thank them enough, so I won't thank them at all."

7. Martin Truex, Jr. — Truex posted his fourth top-10 finish of the year with a fifth in the Goody's Fast Relief 500. He jumped two places in the point standings into a tie for third, 12 behind Greg Biffle.

"Between David Reutimann, Clint Bowyer, and Ryan Newman," Truex said, "it was an April fools day to remember. Apparently, Auto Club Speedway wasn't the only appearance the Three Stooges made."

8. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer's dash to the inside on a late restart, helped by a bump from Ryan Newman, initiated a crash that wiped out Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon from contention. Bowyer also spun in the melee, but recovered to finish 10th, and now sits ninth in the point standings, 34 out of first.

"I had fresh tires," Bowyer said, "so I knew I could get a good jump on Gordon and Johnson on the restart. I had 'grip;' they had 'gripes.' But don't blame me. I was trying to win. David Reutimann? I'm not sure what he was doing? I don't know why he chose to park on the track. My guess? It's Martinsville, and that was the only spot available."

9. Jeff Gordon — Looking for a win to boost a lackluster season, Gordon saw a near-victory ripped from his grasp after a caution for David Reutimann's stalled car led to the restart that wrecked Gordon. Gordon took the lead after stalking Jimmie Johnson for 50 laps, and was poised to give Hendrick Motorsports its 200th win.

"Obviously," Gordon said, "Reutimann has a mistaken idea of 'start and park.' He was, quite literally, out for a Sunday drive.

"I understand Reutimann was trying to score as many points as possible to keep that No. 10 car in the top 35, so Danica Patrick can run her allotted races. Heck, why not just let Patrick race at Martinsville. That way, we know any caution caused by the No. 10 would have been a legitimate one."

10. Ryan Newman — Newman plowed his way to the front on a restart with two laps to go, leaving the Hendrick Motorsports duo of Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson in his wake. Newman held off A.J. Allmendinger on the final green-white-checkered finish to secure his first win of the season, and Stewart-Haas Racing's third.

"Hopefully," Newman said, "I haven't burned any bridges with the Hendrick camp. After all, they do provide us with engines. So I don't mind them giving me horsepower, but I do mind them giving me grief. Joke of the day: How is Stewart Haas Racing different from Hendrick Motorsports? Stewart Haas can win with Hendrick engines."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:01 AM | Comments (0)

April 3, 2012

The Next Generation of Hall of Fame WRs

For the last month, we've been profiling some of the best wide receivers eligible for the Pro Football Hall of Fame but not yet enshrined: Cliff Branch, Tim Brown, Harold Carmichael, Cris Carter, Wes Chandler, Gary Clark, Henry Ellard, Irving Fryar, Charley Hennigan, Harlon Hill, Billy Howton, Harold Jackson, Herman Moore, Stanley Morgan, Drew Pearson, Art Powell, Andre Reed, Andre Rison, Sterling Sharpe, Del Shofner, Jimmy Smith, Mac Speedie, Hugh Taylor, Otis Taylor, and Billy Wilson. If you're interested in those players, check out our other articles in this series:

Best Wide Receivers Not in the Hall of Fame: 1990s
Best Wide Receivers Not in the Hall of Fame: 1980s
Best Wide Receivers Not in the Hall of Fame: 1970s
Best Wide Receivers Not in the Hall of Fame: 1960s
Best Wide Receivers Not in the Hall of Fame: 1950s

This week, we're looking at some great wide receivers who aren't in the Hall of Fame because they aren't eligible yet: Isaac Bruce, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell, Muhsin Muhammad, Terrell Owens, and Rod Smith. We'll also touch on the most accomplished active players, including Anquan Boldin, Donald Driver, Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Chad Johnson, Derrick Mason, Randy Moss, Steve Smith, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne, and Wes Welker. Let's begin with the retired players, in alphabetical order.

Isaac Bruce
1994-2009, Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams, San Francisco 49ers
1,024 receptions, 15,208 yards, 91 TD

Isaac Bruce ranks 6th all-time in receptions, 3rd in receiving yards, and 10th in receiving TDs. He had eight 1,000-yard seasons, including 1,781 in 1995, still the 2nd-highest total in history. Bruce spent much of his career on bad teams, but made big plays when he got the chance, including the 73-yard winning touchdown in Super Bowl XXXIV.

Bruce was named to four Pro Bowls and went over 1,000 yards four other times, including 1,338 in 1996 and 1,292 in 2004. His résumé bears a similarity to Charlie Joiner's — guys with long careers and sensational career stats who weren't usually regarded as being among the very best while they were active. Both also have to fight the perception that their numbers are partly or largely a product of the absurd offenses they played in, where any receiver could become a star. Bruce's case, though, is a little stronger than Joiner's. He was first-team All-Pro twice, and a Super Bowl star. I believe Joiner deserves his place in Canton, and Bruce deserves to join him.

Marvin Harrison
1996-2008, Indianapolis Colts
1,102 receptions, 14,580 yards, 128 TD

From 1999-2006, Marvin Harrison in every season finished with more than 80 receptions, 1,100 yards, and double-digit touchdowns. He is the only player in history with four consecutive 1,400-yard seasons, and one of only four (Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald) to go over 1,400 in any four seasons. Harrison holds the single-season record for receptions (143) by a huge margin (20). He led the NFL twice in receptions, twice in receiving yards, and once in receiving TDs. He was first-team All-Pro three times and qualified for eight Pro Bowls.

Harrison was not the biggest, fastest, or strongest receiver in the game; he didn't intimidate opponents the way Terrell Owens and Moss did. But Harrison was one of the smartest receivers ever to play, and like Rice, he worked very hard to be the best; the extra practice hours he put in working with Peyton Manning are legendary. Harrison was an exceptional route-runner, and he was the best I ever saw at the toe-tap on the sideline. Give him an inch, the tiniest opening, and he'd make the catch. Harrison and Rice are the only players with three 1,500-yard receiving seasons.

Torry Holt
1999-2009, St. Louis Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars
920 receptions, 13,382 yards, 74 TD

Torry Holt by the numbers:

11: Seasons in which Holt caught at least 50 passes.
10: Seasons in which Holt gained at least 750 receiving yards.
9: Minimum number of receiving TDs Holt scored every year from 2003-06.
8: 1,000-yard receiving seasons.
7: Pro Bowl selections.
6: Consecutive 1,300-yard seasons, a record.
5: 90-reception seasons. Actually, that's six, too.
4: Playoff games scoring a touchdown.
3: Times leading the NFL in a major receiving stat.
2: Seasons with over 1,600 receiving yards, the only player besides Marvin Harrison.
1: Rank in most receptions and receiving yards from 2000-09.

Keyshawn Johnson
1996-2006, New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers
804 receptions, 10,571 yards, 64 TD

The top pick in the 1996 draft, Keyshawn Johnson was known as much for his attitude as his play. He caught 70 or more passes nine times, and wrote a book (with Shelley Smith) titled Just Give Me the Damn Ball!, setting the tone for a decade of diva receivers that followed. He caught more than 800 passes for over 10,000 yards, and he was dismissed from the Buccaneers in mid-season 2003 because the defending champs didn't want to deal with him any more.

Johnson's reputation and disruptive locker room influence are a crucial part of his legacy, but they won't be what keeps him from getting a bust in Canton. Keyshawn was a very good receiver, at times a great receiver. He made three Pro Bowls, caught 100 passes one year, and was an exceptional blocker, probably could have added 10 pounds and been a Shannon Sharpe-style tight end if he'd wanted. But he never led the league in any major statistic, was never All-Pro, and didn't have a long career. He's not a serious HOF candidate.

Keenan McCardell
1992-2007, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, San Diego Chargers, Washington Redskins
883 receptions, 11,373 yards, 63 TD

Keenan McCardell quietly caught almost 900 passes and gained over 11,000 yards. A two-time Pro Bowler, he had five 1,000-yard seasons and five years among the NFL's top 10 in receptions. McCardell was a 12th-round draft pick in 1991, and spent a year on injured reserve for the Washington team that won Super Bowl XXVI, but didn't get a chance to play regularly until he joined the Jaguars in 1996. If McCardell hadn't lost five years of his prime sitting on the bench, would he be a Hall of Famer? Maybe.

As it is, McCardell obviously won't be elected to the Hall. He was a good player for many years, but never really exceptional. He never had 100 receptions, or 1,250 yards, or double-digit TDs, and he often wasn't the best receiver on his own team, overshadowed by Jimmy Smith, Keyshawn Johnson, and Antonio Gates. But McCardell was a valuable player for years, a veteran you could count on to come in and make plays.

Muhsin Muhammad
1996-2009, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears
860 receptions, 11,438 yards, 62 TD

One of the more under-appreciated receivers in recent history, Muhsin Muhammad gained at least 500 receiving yards in 12 seasons, caught 90 or more passes three times, and led the NFL at various times in every major receiving category: receptions (2000), receiving yards (2004), and receiving touchdowns (2004). He made two Pro Bowls and was first-team All-Pro in '04. Keyshawn Johnson, Keenan McCardell, and Muhammad all have similar career stats:

Johnson is unquestionably the biggest star of the three, and I suspect most fans would name Keyshawn as the best in that group. McCardell would probably come in second, with Moose a distant third. Yet, Muhammad gained the most yards, was the only one named All-Pro, and was the only one to lead the league in any major statistic — which he did not once but three times. Like McCardell, who was often second-best to teammate Jimmy Smith, Muhammad was overlooked partially because he played with Steve Smith, but he was a fine player for many seasons.

Terrell Owens
1996-2010, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals
1,078 receptions, 15,934 yards, 153 TD

Terrell Owens ranks 6th all-time in receptions, 2nd in receiving yards, and tied for 2nd in receiving touchdowns. He led the NFL three times in receiving TDs and is one of only three Modern-Era wide receivers named to five All-Pro teams as a starter (Jerry Rice, Del Shofner). Owens had nine 1,000-yard seasons, eight years of double-digit TDs, six Pro Bowl selections, and four years gaining at least 1,300 yards.

Judged solely by his on-field performance, Owens is not just a Hall of Famer, he's one of the most outstanding WRs of all time. But Owens' legacy isn't limited to his touchdowns and his great moments in the postseason. Owens is also remembered for his disrespectful celebrations (especially against the Cowboys), unsportsmanlike conduct penalties, getting Steve Mariucci fired and Jeff Garcia released — the catalyst for a decade of losing in San Francisco — overturning his trade to the Ravens, fighting with Hugh Douglas, demanding to renegotiate his contract after just one year, making Drew Rosenhaus famous, destroying the Eagles' locker room and getting suspended, calling Ed Werder a liar following reports of conflict in the Dallas locker room, and many more off-field controversies.

I'm glad the Pro Football Hall of Fame has a five-year waiting period, and Owens won't be eligible until at least 2016, because I honestly don't know yet how I feel about Owens' candidacy, and having some time to put things in context sounds good. Owens was a physical marvel, big and powerful, who cared about winning and would become visibly upset when his team wasn't doing well. He also dropped a lot of catchable passes, antagonized every quarterback he ever played with, and made himself unwanted when he was still a capable player. Owens gained 983 yards in 2010, and no one signed him the next year; he wasn't worth the trouble.

If coaches and teammates have to spend time dealing with your crap when they're supposed to be game-planning or training, that hurts the organization. If the quarterback has to stress about getting you the ball, that's not productive. As great a player as he was, I'm not convinced Owens actually made his teams better. There's no substitute for talent, but I believe team chemistry matters, and probably no player in NFL history has disrupted team chemistry like Terrell Owens. Is he a Hall of Famer? Let's talk about it in a few years.

Rod Smith
1995-2006, Denver Broncos
849 receptions, 11,389 yards, 68 TD

Here's another player whose career stats fit nicely in that Keyshawn/McCardell/Muhammad group: 800-900 receptions, about 11,000 yards, 60-70 TDs. It's kind of remarkable for four contemporary players to post such similar stats over long, productive careers. Overall numbers notwithstanding, Smith was by far the best of the four. He had eight 1,000-yard seasons, compared to McCardell (5), Johnson (4), and Muhammad (3). Smith played on two Super Bowl champions, with 152 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl XXXIII. He caught 100 passes twice, caught 70 passes nine times, double-digit TDs twice, 1,200 yards three times, as many as 1,600 one year.

Smith didn't have a long career. Undrafted out of Division II Missouri Southern, he didn't play in the NFL until he was 25, didn't become a starter until he was 27. It's a shame careers can turn so heavily on high school performance. If Smith had been offered a scholarship to a Big 10 or SEC school, gotten drafted in the third round, and become a starter when he was 23 or 24, maybe he'd have another 200 receptions, 3,000 yards, 20 TDs. Judging Smith by what he actually did, he was a great player for a long time, but I don't know that he stood out the way we expect from a Hall of Famer.

The receivers of this generation have posted unparalleled statistics:

Here's how I rank the best recently retired receivers:

1. Marvin Harrison — Record-setting wideout with no holes in his game, gained 1,500 yards three times.
HOF Qualifications: EXCELLENT. He should get in.

2. Torry Holt — Leading receiver of the 2000s, six straight 1,300-yard seasons, go-to receiver for Greatest Show on Turf Rams.
HOF Qualifications: GOOD. He should probably get in.

3. Isaac Bruce — Super Bowl hero, top 10 all-time in every major receiving stat, eight 1,000-yard seasons, 2nd-highest single-season receiving yardage in history.
HOF Qualifications: GOOD. He should probably get in.

4. Rod Smith — Gained 1,600 yards in 2000, led NFL in receptions in 2001, made three Pro Bowls.
HOF Qualifications: FAIR. He probably doesn't need to be in.

xx. Terrell Owens — Five-time All-Pro, 2nd all-time in receiving yards and TDs, most disruptive locker room presence in NFL history.
HOF Qualifications: TBD. Let's see how we feel about him when he becomes eligible. This is why there's a waiting period.

6. Keenan McCardell — Played 16 seasons, 14th all-time in receptions, five 1,000-yard seasons.
HOF Qualifications: POOR. He probably shouldn't get in. But he was a valuable player everywhere he went.

7. Muhsin Muhammad — Led NFL in every major receiving stat, caught 90 passes three times, All-Pro in 2004.
HOF Qualifications: POOR. He probably shouldn't get in. But he was an underrated player who was effective for years.

8. Keyshawn Johnson — Caught 70 or more passes eight times, exceptional blocker, sometimes perceived as more trouble than he was worth.
HOF Qualifications: POOR. He probably shouldn't get in. But he was a valuable possession receiver who was productive for a decade.

It's kind of silly to evaluate active players, but here are some quick thoughts on a few of the greatest receivers who played in 2011, plus Randy Moss, who recently signed with the 49ers.

The one with the strongest HOF credentials is obviously Randy Moss. Sometimes he literally seemed unstoppable, just impossible to defend. Moss had ten 1,000-yard seasons and nine years of double-digit TDs, tied with Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens for the most ever. He surpassed 1,200 yards eight times, led the NFL in receiving TDs five times, and was first-team All-Pro in four seasons. His 64 career 100-yard receiving games are second only to Rice.

Moss was often chastised for his obvious lack of effort when he wasn't motivated, but that's not enough to keep him out of Canton. Moss has incredible career statistics, a peak as sensational as any receiver who ever lived, and he passed the eye test in a big way. He wasn't as reliable as other great receivers, but you'd still want him on your team, because he was the most explosive wideout since Lance Alworth, maybe ever.

I expect some readers will feel I have applied a double-standard to Moss and Terrell Owens. Why am I giving Moss a pass? He made his teams better. The 1997 Vikings went 9-7. The next year, with Moss, they were 15-1. The 2006 Patriots scored 385 points. Next season, they added Moss and scored 589. The Eagles, Cowboys, and Bengals all got better when they released Owens.

After Moss, who should be a slam dunk for Canton, the best PFHOF case probably belongs to recently retired Hines Ward. He has pretty good gross receiving totals, but that's not an accurate measure of his true value. Ward played most of his career, and all of his prime, on run-oriented offenses where he didn't have the same statistical opportunities as his peers on wide-open passing teams. Ward's success is actually kind of weird. He's not a real big guy, not fast for the position, and didn't have great hands. But he was a good route runner, very tough, and universally acknowledged as the finest blocking receiver of his generation. His numbers don't compare well to guys like Moss and Owens, but I think he'll get in.

In my mind, Derrick Mason is basically the same player as Hines Ward. Their stats are very similar, and Mason actually had more big years, more seasons as an impact player and the top receiver on his team. Both excelled for run-based offenses that dampened their stats, and both had an exceptional skill that doesn't show up in the receiving numbers. For Ward, it was his blocking. For Mason, it's kick returning. He returned two punts and a kickoff for TDs, and in 2000 set the single-season record for all-purpose yardage, a standard that stood for more than a decade. But whereas Ward is a media darling — just ignore that his peers voted him the dirtiest player in the NFL — Mason in recent years developed kind of a bad reputation, and I'd be surprised if the Hall of Fame voters ever take him seriously.

Reggie Wayne has good stats, and impact seasons. He's had seven 1,000-yard seasons, three years with 100 or more receptions, and a lot of the same strengths as Marvin Harrison. Wayne has phenomenal control of his position on the field, he's got great hands, breakaway speed, and he is just a master of that tightrope catch on the sideline or in the corner of the end zone.

What Larry Fitzgerald has accomplished in just eight seasons is astonishing. He's posted four 1,400-yard seasons, five years with 90+ catches, and four years catching double-digit TDs, including some years when the Cardinals were pretty awful. Fitzgerald probably has half his career in front of him, but he's well on his way to first-ballot HOF induction. A similar case could be made for Andre Johnson, as long as he stays healthy. When he's on the field, Johnson is just a nightmare for defenders. He and Harrison are the only players in history with back-to-back 1,500-yard receiving seasons.

Just looking at the numbers, Sideshow Chad appears to be one of the strongest receivers of this era — seven 1,000-yard seasons, four years with 90 or more receptions. Certainly Chad was among the league's best receivers for a couple of years, but he also posted big numbers in a few seasons when he created more headaches than touchdowns. Playing in a pass-oriented offense and demanding the ball, he would sulk and hurt the team when he wasn't satisfied, forcing passes his way. He had a nice career with some true impact seasons, but it doesn't look like there are a lot of catches in his future, and his numbers just aren't at HOF level right now.

Steve Smith has repeatedly succeeded in the absence of elite quarterbacking, with three phenomenal seasons, and great kick returning early in his career. He'll need a few more outstanding years if he's going to be a serious candidate for the Hall of Fame, but he looked rejuvenated playing with Cam Newton last year, so that's not impossible. Anquan Boldin is trapped in Baltimore's offense right now, but he's still a good player, he's not old (31), and he had some great years in Arizona. If he plays another five years, his statistics alone could draw HOF attention. To get in, he'll probably need another couple really big seasons, Pro Bowl or All-Pro quality.

I have always liked Donald Driver. What's not to like? Dependable, consistent receiver who always has more left in the tank than you thought. He's gone over 1,000 yards seven times, he caught 70 passes six years in a row, he's one of the greatest receivers in Packer history. His career appears to be winding down, and although he's hit a couple of the big numbers — 10,000 yards is a significant accomplishment — he's not likely to draw serious HOF consideration.

Wes Welker keeps challenging receiving records, but he'll need to keep it up for years to make it to Canton. Really, it's probably too early for any serious evaluation of his prospects. The same is true for young players like Roddy White and Calvin Johnson, who certainly appear to be on the right track, but are just too young to have established HOF credentials at this point. That's really the next generation of receivers, after we've gone through Ward, Mason, Wayne, etc.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 11:58 AM | Comments (0)

April 2, 2012

Give Me Six!

Due to the lockout, this shortened NBA season is already less than a month from being over. There have been a few surprises, but most of the season has been pretty predictable. One part of pretty much every season that remains fresh is the Sixth Man of the Year award. Most of these players don't get a chance to defend their crown because they become starters, and the contenders for the award this year definitely have bigger contracts and starting jobs in their futures. Here's a look at the frontrunners in the NBA's "star on the rise" category of Sixth Man of the Year.

3) Mike Dunleavy, Jr.

Dunleavy may not fit the "star on the rise" mold as he is a nine-year veteran, but his numbers are very impressive coming off the bench for a newly remodeled Bucks team that hopes to surprise some people if they can sneak in to the playoffs. Dunleavy is averaging 13 points a game on the season, but almost 17 in the last 10 games as the Bucks make their playoff push. When Dunleavy is cold he is cold and doesn't have the athletic ability to get his points on a bad shooting night, but as of recent, bad shooting nights have been few and far between.

A good sixth man always provides a spark when his fresh legs hit the floor, and as a crowd favorite, Dunleavy raises the energy every time he subs in at the Bradley Center. As a pure shooter, he can (and does) get hot and pour on 15 points in a quarter when the Bucks are slumping. Some could argue that he is not on a good enough team, but he has single-handedly won games for the Bucks and without him, they wouldn't be in the playoff hunt at all.

2) Lou Williams

Any time you're a leading scorer on a winning team, you're going to be mentioned in awards talks, but normally not in the Sixth Man of the Year. Williams is leading the Sixers in points per game at 16 per game and he also drops 3.5 assists off the bench. There are a few other bench players with similar numbers as Williams, but he (and maybe Jason Terry when Dirk Nowitzki is cold) is the only bench player in the NBA whose team looks to give him the ball in the closing seconds of games. This is where his value as a swingman is greatly increased. He is one of the best sixth men I can remember in the last few years, but unfortunately James Harden is also a sixth man this year.

1) James Harden

James Harden's athletic ability and his iconic beard make him a huge crowd favorite in OKC and just as Dunleavy, he is a spark for the team before he evens hits the floor. On a team with guys named Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, it's a bit tough to be a team leader in scoring like Williams, but he still puts up 17 points and 4 assists a game and is the person the offense runs around when the all-star tandem of Durant and Westbrook are on the bench.

Though he pretty much edges out everyone in every category, the one that stands out to me is his defense. He is one of the best athletes in the league (just a scary combo with Westbrook) and when he is on the court, he is the lockdown defender for the Thunder. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, all of them. He frustrates players with his scrappy and very impressive defense and even without being a prolific offensive player, his D could land him a starting job on pretty much every team in the NBA aside from maybe the Heat. Harden is a huge part of one of the best teams in basketball and therefore he should, and more than likely will, be the Sixth Man of the Year at the end of the season.

Posted by Gary Flick at 12:10 PM | Comments (0)

Djokovic Wins, Nadal Injured Again

Novak Djokovic has added to his amazing year with another big victory at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami. The champion from the little country of Serbia has asserted his dominance and is now the top player in the world. From all accounts, this was only a matter of time. And that time is now.

By vanquishing Scot Andy Murray in Miami, Djokovic displayed a game that is built for today. Powerful shot-making, heavy serves, and incredible fitness. Murray is a competitor, but comes short in the power and fitness category.

Rafael Nadal withdrew from the semifinal with Murray due to injury, another in the long line that the champion Spaniard has suffered during his meteoric yet brief career. A powerful shot-maker and maybe the fastest man on the tour, his band and run style has already taken a toll on his young body.

The nearly six-hour final at the Australian Open between Nadal and Djokovic has led many former tennis champions to question the format of the game of tennis today. The most recent commentary was made by Angela Buxton, a former major doubles champion from the 1950s and a tennis commentator extraordinaire. Buxton believes that epic finals like the 2012 Aussie men's final are not only not good for the players, but also not good for the sport.

I would argue the point quite vociferously. As a former player and coach, I understand well the toll that playing any sport, let alone tennis, that is paid by your body when played at the elite levels of the game. You must maintain near perfect condition at all times, you must work longer and harder than anyone else, and you typically go so deep in every tournament you play that you get virtually no rest. After just a few short years, that can be quite a pounding on a body.

This to me, though, is where all the players and pundits are wrong. The game of tennis today is dominated by one style of play. Bang and run. With the exception of Roger Federer, there are no players on either the men's or women's side who have a complete game. There are no players who can hit with touch, feel, none who can play the net competently, none who understand how to truly construct a point. If there were, many matches would actually be shorter. When the object is to work quickly to the net and a position of easy winners, points are naturally shorter. Pete Sampras was so dominant because he played mainly a serve-and-volley style. He could hit with the best of them, as evidenced by his win at the 2001 U.S. Open where no player broke the other's serve, yet he won out against maybe the best returner and ground game to that point.

Since the choice of many players today is to just sit at the baseline and hit groundstrokes until someone misses or they hit an atomic winner, then I say the price they pay is infinitely long matches that place extraordinary stress on their arms, shoulders, and bodies. This is the game they choose, and now it seems at the top levels that requires a full workday to triumph. Good.

There have been many other champions of the past who played these grueling groundstroke games, only to shorten their great careers due to stress injury. Tony Roche, maybe the best Aussie ever on clay, had tennis elbow and while a Hall of Famer, could have had an even better final record. Guillermo Vilas, the bull of the pampas, also played a game based on brute spinning shots and running everything down. His light burned bright, but quickly, as well.

Djokovic has recovered and is still dominating, with little sign so far of great bodily wear. So it is shown that you can play today's style of tennis and win, and do so without injury. For how long? That is another question.

So Angela, we and the game need not protect the players, or the top-tier stars. If they cannot adapt, they will burn out. So let's not change the game to shorten it, let's not change the game to save the players from themselves. Let's see how long it takes the players to change themselves. it can be done. I learned that from William Tatem Tilden.

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 11:38 AM | Comments (2)

April 1, 2012

Saints Owner Should Sack Payton, Loomis

The New Orleans Saints are still reeling from NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell's ruling on "Bountygate," where coaches paid bonuses to players for every opponent they could either knock out of the game or get carted off. Now team owner Tom Benson is left to clean up the mess.

What a mess it is. Head coach Sean Payton was suspended for a year without pay, general manager Mickey Loomis was handed a eight-game suspension, and Joe Vitt, linebackers coach and assistant head coach, will sit out six games. The Saints must give up a second-round draft pick in both 2012 and 2013, and the team must also pay a $500,000 fine. Former Saints defensive coordinator Greg Williams was also suspended indefinitely without pay.

Let's put ourselves in Benson's shoes for a moment. When Hurrican Katrina turned New Orleans upside down in 2005, it was the Saints that gave the city hope for a brighter future. Just two years ago, Benson's team was on top of the football world, winning its first Super Bowl and becoming the darlings of NFL fans everywhere.

Now, with one blow from the hammer of the commissioner, the Saints have gone from the gates of heaven to the pit of Hades, and the bloodletting isn't over. Goodell still has yet to decide the fate of the Saints players who took part in Bountygate, but he will, in due time.

While Greg Williams was clearly the mastermind behind the bounty controversy, the responsibility of stopping the scheme rests squarely on Payton's and Loomis' shoulders. Payton denied any knowledge of such a program, a claim disputed by numerous insiders. According to the final report issued by the NFL on the investigation, Payton received an e-mail from an associate prior to the start of the 2011 season which stated, "P.S. Greg Williams put me down for $5,000 on (Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron) Rogers (sic)."

Loomis advised Payton in 2010 that the league was conducting an investigation into allegations of a bounty program. Payton met with Williams and Vitt before an interview with league investigators and told them, "let's make sure our ducks are in a row." Payton claimed he never inquired about the results of that interview, and didn't ask Williams or Vitt whether such a program even existed, and if it did, to stop it. Loomis again informed Payton in January 2012 that the league was reopening the investigation. Payton made only a cursory inquiry, but again took no action to make sure a bounty program was discontinued. Loomis also failed to follow up to ensure this was done.

The fact a bounty was put out on specific players is bad enough, but the failure of both Payton and Loomis to take decisive action to put an end to it, and attempting to hinder the investigation is equally grievous. Benson made it clear to both that such a program was unacceptable, and gave specific instructions to squash it. Now, the Saints are having to pick up the pieces of their broken team, all because the head coach and general manager did not fulfill their responsibilities and hold their staff accountable.

Publicly, Benson is standing behind his coach and Gm. Even after they fulfill their suspensions, how can Benson feel secure in placing his trust in them to run the team? The punishment being inflicted, not to mention the humiliation and embarrassment he will endure, is too high a price to pay for loyalty. Sure, Payton has been a fan favorite since coming to New Orleans with his boyish charm and a Super Bowl victory. But Payton and Loomis should both be shown the door for dereliction of duty and covering up the situation. Most companies wouldn't hesitate to do the same.

For the first time since Goodell's decision, Payton spoke publicly about the situation to reporters during the NFL owners meeting in Florida. When asked about the commissioner's allegation that he lied repeatedly to investigators, Payton said, "in my two trips to New York, I made sure to do everything in my power to answer questions honestly." He also stated he was 100 percent confident he would coach the Saints again after his suspension was up.

Benson spoke with his fellow owners during the meetings, saying he was disappointed that the bounty incident occurred, and assured them he would take the necessary steps to prevent it from ever happening again. Whether those steps include replacing Payton and Loomis remains to be seen, but both will have to earn back trust that has been seriously compromised. That may be an even tougher road to travel than getting a team to the Super Bowl.

Posted by Stephen Kerr at 12:13 PM | Comments (3)

How Tim Tebow Will Help the Jets

Tebow Will Be a Capable Backup (and Friend) to Mark Sanchez — When people say the words "quarterback sneak" in New York, they could be referring to two things: either the Jets goal line offense, or Sanchez's penchant for secretly dating underage girls. The arrival of Tebow assuages both problems. Tebow is most effective as a quarterback at the goal line, and just his mere presence will have Sanchez not only eschewing young hotties, but saving himself for marriage. In other words, Tebow will have Sanchez "backed up."

Jersey Sales — Already, Tebow's No. 15 Jets jersey is a hot seller, particularly those manufactured from virgin wool. Factor in the New York market, and a veritable gold mine awaits. Everybody in New York will be wearing Tebow jerseys on Sunday, to church. Those that don't go to church will also be wearing their Tebow jersey, because, in their minds, wearing a Tebow jersey negates the need to go to church.

Antonio Cromartie Needs Guidance — Cromartie was not pleased with Tebow's arrival, but the two could become fast friends once they realize they have much in common. For example, Cromartie has fathered nine children by eight women. I'm sure Tebow would be quite impressed by the religious fervor expressed by those nine kids; they may be the only people that say "Our Father" more than Tebow. What's in it for Tebow? One look at Cromartie's child support payments, and Tebow's vows of abstinence will be validated.

Santonio Holmes Needs a Good Relationship With a Quarterback — Most football analysts decry Tebow's inability to hit the open receiver. Holmes can't get open, so just like that, the two have, ironically, a connection. Plus, both Tebow and Holmes spent their formative years in Florida, both collecting money for their respective causes.

Tebow-Mania Will Ease Media Scrutiny of Rex Ryan — Ryan has often placed too much pressure on his team by guaranteeing Super Bowl wins. Well, the presence of Tebow insures that Ryan won't be guaranteeing a Jets Super Bowl. Problem solved. Plus, once Tebow relays to the New York media the story of Mary Magdalene washing Jesus' feet, the press will finally have a better respect and understanding for Ryan's creepy foot fetish.

Broadway Will Embrace Tebow — Expect Tebowing: The Musical to open by Thanksgiving on Broadway, and have a longer run than Tebow as a Jet. If there's anyone that can make Tebow a star, it's Andrew Lloyd Webber.

"Tebowing" Will Take on a Whole New Meaning — NYC citizens will embrace "Tebowing" fastidiously, so much so that the practice of facing the Meadowlands and Tebowing five times a day will become commonplace.

Tebow Will Referee Team Disputes — Tebow will be more than happy to serve as a mediator is disagreements between players. But for God's sake, don't call him "devil's advocate."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:27 AM | Comments (0)