This Super Bowl matchup between the Giants and Patriots is quite intriguing for many reasons. One of those is the fact that it's only the second Super Bowl ever where the two opponents represent a rematch of a previous Super Bowl and a rematch of a regular season game in the same season.
The only other time this occurred was during the 1993 season when Dallas and Buffalo met in the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season and the two had met during the regular season (Buffalo won that game, 13-10). Based on that history alone (if you put any credence into those type of stats), New England should win Sunday's game — they won the first Super Bowl matchup but lost the regular season tilt with the Giants back in Week 9, 24-20.
There are a ton of websites where this game has been analyzed to death by experts and non-experts alike. But I'd like to add one more analysis about this game, and it may be a bit unorthodox. Here's why.
When looking at the statistical differences between the two teams, two things are immediately clear: the Patriots have a better offense and the Giants have a better defense. In my estimation, this makes the game a tossup. The weaker defense against the weaker offense, combined with the stronger defense against the stronger offense basically makes it a wash — there's no real statistical advantage by either team. So the way I see it, there are three keys to the game that will bring victory to either side.
1. Pressure the quarterback.
The quarterback play has been the bright point for both teams, but when other teams have been able to get pressure on them, they've been successful. Looking at just the postseason, in the three games that both New York and New England have played that were blowouts, neither quarterback had much pressure put on them by opposing defenses. Both Atlanta and Green Bay were able to get only one sack on Eli Manning, and the Packers forced his only interception of the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Tom Brady did throw a pick against Denver, but they were unable to sack him. However, in the conference championship games, both San Francisco and Baltimore were able to get quite a bit more pressure on Manning and Brady and nearly won those games. Manning was sacked 5 times by the 49er defense, while Brady was sacked once but threw two picks. If either defense can force the quarterback to make hurried throws or run out of the pocket, it could disrupt the offense because neither team has much of a running game.
2. Establish the ground game
The Giants were last in the NFL in rushing offense and New England wasn't much better, ranking 20th. But both teams have such good defenses that none of their playoff opponents could run the ball effectively against them, either. New York held their three opponents' top rushers to under 75 yards, as did New England (well, almost — Willis McGahee had 76 for Denver).
But, on the opposite side of the ball, neither team could muster a runner that posted more than 75 yards in the playoffs, save Brandon Jacobs, who rushed for 92 against Atlanta. If either team can figure out how to open up holes at the line of scrimmage to get their backs through and into the secondary, it will take a tremendous amount of pressure off the quarterbacks that both teams live and die with.
3. Win the turnover battle
If there was one key that I thought would favor one team over the other, it would be this one. During the playoffs, the Giants were +4 in turnovers, while the Patriots were -4; further, New York was +2 in its regular season meeting with New England. However, for the season, the Patriots were a +17 while the Giants were only +7. Whichever team can take the ball out of the other's hands the most will most likely have the upper hand in the game, since both offenses are pretty much the bread and butter of their success.
If I were to try to pick any favorites in these three categories, I'd simply have to look at it empirically. For the quarterback pressure key, the nod has to go to the Giants. They've collected 4 more interceptions and 21 more sacks than their opponents through the postseason, while New England has picked off 9 more passes, but only registered 15 more sacks than their opponents. That's +4 for the Giants there. As far as the running game goes, New England has the clear edge there. They've averaged almost 12 yards per game more through the playoffs than the Giants, and have also given up about 2½ yards per game less than New York. And turnovers slightly favor New England with a +14 to this point compared with New York's +11.
My prediction? It's pretty close, and statistically this game could be another one for the ages, but I have to give a slight edge to the Patriots. However, statistics don't mean a whole lot; otherwise, the phrase "that's why they play the game on the field" would never have been coined.
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