We always are looking for Cinderella around mid-March, right?
Time to beat the rush and start looking now.
Heading into the heart of the regular season, with conference play in full swing, it's time to search for the ultimate bracket buster. The contender from the pretenders. The difference between winning a pool and finishing in dead last.
Cinderellas can come in bunches, or can be near impossible to find. But here's the first edition of many at who could spoil a bracket or two come March.
The top five, if you please...
1) Murray State (20-0, 8-0 OVC)
They stand alone as the only undefeated team in Division I, but don't let anyone fool you, the Racers are legit. Two intangibles stand out with Murray State. First, you have to like a team who has crashed the dance in recent times, which the Racers did two short seasons ago (they were a basket away from ending Butler's run much earlier). Second, come March, you have to like teams with a solid point guard, and the Racers have that in junior Isaiah Canaan. Given also that Murray State has quality depth in terms of good shooters, and they're going to be a tough out, no matter the seeding.
2) Creighton (19-2, 9-1 MVC)
The Bluejays have relied heavily on Doug McDermott, but he's carried the weight in impressive style, proving he is one of the top forwards in the country. McDermott averages 23.5 points and 8.5 rebounds a game, all while keeping out of foul trouble, which only frustrates teams more as everyone knows the target is on his back. However, keep your eye on Grant Gibbs, though, as well. He averages close to 6 assists a game and is a key catalyst in the Creighton attack. A quick stat: Creighton is 3-0 this year against the Big Ten.
3) Wichita State (18-3, 9-1 MVC)
Gregg Marshall is one heck of a basketball coach. First, he goes to Winthrop, who'd never been to the NCAA tournament and promptly takes them seven times in nine years. Now, fresh off of winning the NIT last year, Marshall has the Shockers firmly in NCAA contention, thanks in part to a great start in conference play and a solid 19 point win over UNLV as a resume-builder. Wichita is tough because they have a great inside-outside presence. Inside, Garrett Stutz is a force, leading the team in points (12.9/game) and rebounds (7.6/game), while Joe Ragland, Toure Murray and David Kyles anchor the outside beautifully. Three solid guards spells lots of trouble for opposing teams in the Big Dance. Marshall plays a deep bench and coaches a team that shoots well and doesn't beat themselves on the court.
4) San Diego State (18-2, 4-0 Mtn. West)
This might be Steve Fisher's best coaching job yet. The Aztecs don't have a superstar player. Their overall stats aren't eye-popping. However, they're deep, they're balanced, they play incredibly hard, they're confident and they win. When your only two losses are to Baylor and Creighton, that's nothing to be ashamed about. Four players average over 10 points a game for the Aztecs, but my favorite to watch is Jamaal Franklin, a 6-5 guard who is second on the team in scoring (15.2 points per game) and leads the team in rebounds (6.8 boards a game). SDSU is just a lot of fun to watch. They have mischief written all over them.
5) UNLV (19-3, 3-1 Mtn. West)
19-3 with a resounding win over North Carolina at the Dean Dome. That's good enough already to ensure an NCAA bid, but the Rebels could definitely throw a kink or two in the plans of top seeded teams. Mike Moser is an absolute beast, averaging a double-double per game (14.2 points and 11.7 rebounds, respectively), and has to be contained for opposing teams to have any chance against UNLV. If you're a fan of the assist to turnover ratio, you'll really like the Rebels, as they average 4.2 more assists than turnovers each game.
So there's the five most dangerous mid-majors out there for now. Here's some teams though that could climb into the top five in time...
6) Harvard (16-2, 2-0 Ivy League)
This has to be Harvard's year to win their first trip to the dance, right? The loss to Fordham is puzzling; the win at Florida State looks better by the week.
7) St. Mary's (19-2, 8-0 West Coast)
Love the experience and the winning streak that the Gaels are on. The blowout of Gonzaga was particularly impressive. There's a test waiting for them this weekend at BYU.
8) Middle Tennessee (20-2, 9-0 Sun Belt)
They've yet to beat a ranked team, so they're not in the top five. Beat Vandy this Saturday, though, and then it's really time to start talking about the Blue Raiders.
9) Long Beach State (15-6, 8-0 Big West)
They beat Pitt and Xavier, who are slumping, but their near misses at Kansas and North Carolina definitely say that the 49ers are no fluke.
10) Oral Roberts (18-4, 10-0 Summit)
ORU is dominating the Summit League and has a win over Xavier to boot, though that's losing a little luster.
11) Denver (15-5, 5-2 Sun Belt)
A little inconsistent at times, but solid wins over St. Mary's and Southern Miss. The Sun Belt looks stronger than the Pac-12 right now. No, you read that right. Yes, I'm serious.
12) Southern Miss (18-3, 5-1 Conference USA)
Larry Eustachy's is back and with a vengeance. The Golden Eagles have nice wins over Ole Miss and Arizona, but with the lack of a marquee team on the schedule, need to finish strong to turn some heads.
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