After a grueling offseason for the NBA's rookie class that consisted of negativity towards the talent levels, players deciding to sign in other countries, and the looming reality that they may not have jobs at all if the lockout continued, the 2011-2012 draft class has showed an incredible amount of toughness.
Even with a lot of things not going their way in October and November, Ricky Rubio and friends have been putting a muzzle on the preseason haters now that the season is in full swing. Though it began just a little over a month ago, the compressed season is a quarter of the way done and therefore it's not too early to start weighing the Rookie of the Year contenders for the draft class formerly known as dismal.
There are plenty of other names that are helping to prove that the 2011-2012 rookies are not nearly as weak as they were made out to be in the preseason, but I believe these five players (especially the last two) have the best chance to win the hardware at the end of the season:.
Iman Shumpert, G, New York Knicks — Unlike Rubio and Kyrie Irving, Shumpert is in the shade of two pretty big shadows in New York, playing alongside Carmelo Anthony and Amare, but he is putting up similar numbers to a few other third options like fellas named Ray Allen and Chauncy Billups. With Baron Davis coming back, there is a very real chance that Shumpert's 12 points a game could drop, but Baron has had a recent knack for taking a liking to an up-and-comer and making them even better with his playmaking abilities (Griffin in L.A. and the rest of his team in Cleveland). If Shumpert can let Davis mold his role, I think he could continue to put up contending numbers and be a key reason the Knicks turn their season around.
Marshon Brooks, G, New Jersey Nets — If any rookie is going to outscore Kyrie Irving this year, it will be Brooks. He is already putting in 15 a game and he is a budding star on a dismal team, which means he should start getting the rock more and more each game. This is a double-edged sword, though (like with Irving) because it is tough to weigh the value of someone who isn't actually contributing to wins. I think Brooks will end the season closer to the 20 ppg mark and hopefully another Net can step up and give him a break from the "he's only good because no one else is" talks.
Kawhi Leonard, F, San Antonio Spurs — Though no doubt the least productive and least recognizable name on my list, Leonard has a few things going for him that others on my list do not. Leonard is on a winning team, and thus he will start to be noticed more and more and the winning team he is on is the San Antonio "dinner at 4 PM" Spurs. With back-to-back (and a couple back-to-back-to-back) games continuing for the rest of the compressed season, the borderline elderly Spurs are destined for more injuries like the one that happened to Manu Ginobili last week. In Manu's stead, Leonard stepped into a starting role and dropped in double figures in all three starts. If he continues to get minutes (which he played over 30 in the two games previous to Manu's injury), I think he could really shake up the ROY voting when the season is ending for most other contributing rookies.
Kyrie Irving, G, Cleveland Cavaliers — Irving is having a great season already and his scoring prowess is even more impressive than I thought it would be after watching him at Duke. Though I'm a sucker for a dime-dropping point guard, and in turn I'm picking Rubio to win the award, Irving is no slouch in this category, either. He is an exceptional passer, but also knows that when his team needs a bucket, he should be the one shooting the ball and therefore his assists are understandably a little lower than I like to see from an every-minute point guard. The Cavs are 6-9 and in the East they still have a very good chance to make the playoffs, which would greatly show Irving's value to his team. I've been excited to see Rubio play in the states since he was drafted, but I'm also excited to say the NBA didn't have to go to Europe to produce an exceptional rookie point guard in the 2011-2012 class.
Ricky Rubio, G, Minnesota Timberwolves — Comparisons to Steve Nash normally make me laugh because he is the only pass-first player to win the league's MVP since Oscar Robertson, and he has done it twice. Ricky's comparisons to Nash are still way too soon if you ask me, but I think with some playoff wins and clutch plays down the stretch (which Nash has in spades), then the comparisons may become just. Rubio is only averaging 11 points per game, as opposed to Irving's 17, but he is also only taking 8 shots per game as opposed to Irving's 14 (both incredible percentages for rookie point guards). Rubio is a genius at making people better with solid finishers like Kevin Love and Michael Beasley, and his assists will steadily rise as his minutes continue to increase (33 mpg in the last 10). If the Wolves allow Rubio to be their guy, as the Cavaliers have allowed Irving, he will be the winner of the 2011-2012 Rookie of the Year award.
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