The Death of Defense

From the NFL's inception through 2007, only one quarterback had ever thrown for 5000 yards: Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins, 1984. In 2008, Drew Brees reached the 5,000 mark, but didn't quite catch Marino's record. In 2011, three quarterbacks threw for 5,000 yards — Brees, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford. Only two had done so in the entirety of the NFL before 2011 and three accomplish this amazing feat in one season.

How? Why? The answers to those questions might be as simple as the game has changed and evolved or quarterbacks are bred for passing more than in the past or a plethora of other ideas.

Inside those ideas are two simple facts: quarterbacks pass more frequently now than ever before, and quarterbacks complete a higher percentage of passes now than ever before.

Dan Marino's 1984 season was unreal. He completed 362 passes in 564 attempts, a 64.2 completion percentage for 5,084 yards and 48 touchdowns.

In Drew Brees's 2011 season, he completed 468 passes in 657 attempts, a 71.2 completion percentage (a single season record) for 5,476 yards and 46 touchdowns.

Notice the difference in the seasons. Brees attempted and completed more than 100 passes more than Marino. Marino had 9.0 yards per attempt and 14.0 yards per completion. Brees had 8.3 yards per attempt and 11.7 yards per completion.

In 1984, three of the then 28 teams passed for more than 4,000 yards. In 2011, nine of the 32 teams went over 4,000 yards passing. 1984 was even a relatively pass-friendly year for its time. 1987 (a 15-game season), 1996, and 1997 were all seasons that had zero teams with over 4,000 yards passing.

Joe Namath was the first to pass for 4,000 yards in 1967. He did so in 14 games, completing 258 passes in 491 attempts a 52.5 completion percentage for 4,007 yards and 26 touchdowns. He had 8.2 yards per attempt and 15.5 yards per completion. Apparently, short passes hadn't been thought of yet.

After Namath's 1967 season, the NFL waited until Dan Fouts in 1979 to see another 4,000-yard season.

So it's easy to see that the game has changed. Passing has become easier.

And here we reach the real crux of the issue. Why has passing gotten easier?

You can look to simple experience for the answer. The longer things go on, the better players will figure out how to do things, but one would think that defending the pass would have gotten better along with the passing itself getting better. Yet the record for most interceptions in a season is one of the longest standing records to this day, 14 by Dick "Night Train" Lane in 1952. In fact, no player has intercepted 11 or more passes in a season since 1981. Only a handful of players have managed 10 interceptions in a single season in the past 10 years.

Certainly interceptions are not the way to measure the quality of the NFL's defensive backs, but it does seem a bit strange to me that quarterbacks have constantly been trending upwards in statistics, while defensive backs have not.

So what is causing this trend? Why is offense winning out over defense? There is only one culprit: league rule changes.

The NFL is very interested in player safety these days, and rightfully so. Players should get injured as infrequently as possible. In pushing player safety, the league has made offense a favorite over defense for the remainder of football history.

Think about how the league was 20, 10 or even five years ago. A receiver running a route across the middle of the field would get lit up after the catch. It was a risk they knew they were taking in running that route, and often they paid the price. Running such a route against guys like Ronnie Lott, Eric Allen, or Joey Browner was not a pleasant thought. Now there is a defenseless receiver rule keeping defenders from making receivers pay for entering their territory.

The same is true of quarterbacks. In the past, if quarterbacks held on to the ball too long, they got hit and hit hard. Guys like Bruce Smith, Reggie White, and Derrick Thomas made you pay if you decided to stand up in the pocket and take the hit that was coming to you. Today, those are penalties more often than not.

As the NFL has progressed, the league understood that the injuries being sustained on the football field were unacceptable risks that needed to be remedied. Fair enough. I can't help but wonder why the players and coaches of the game didn't police themselves and adjust to the changing game to cut down on the injuries all by themselves without new league rules.

If a team doesn't want a receiver getting destroyed by the strong safety on a crossing route, they shouldn't run crossing routes. If a quarterback doesn't want a concussion from the blitzing outside linebacker, they should get rid of the ball before they get too close.

Those things seldom happened. Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss were pretty good at getting down or out of bounds before sustaining huge hits. And they were considered soft. Most receivers ran more and more crossing routes, seeking to prove their toughness. Quarterbacks stayed in the pocket longer and longer, holding on to make a play whenever possible.

The rules that have been brought into effect over the past five to 10 years for player protection are an answer to the injury problem. But are they the answer? If by 2020 you want to see a quarterback throw for 6,000 yards, 60 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, I'd say yeah, these rules are the answer. If you want to see defenses getting penalties or offering weak tackles on every single play, then yeah. Why not?

I'd rather see a bit more balance. This season's playoff teams are a real mystery to me. The top four defensive teams (in both yards and points allowed) made the playoffs (Baltimore, San Francisco, Houston, and Pittsburgh). But some terrible defenses (in yards allowed) also made it into the playoffs, including Detroit (23), New Orleans (24), the New York Giants (27), New England (31), and Green Bay (32).

Detroit and Pittsburgh have already lost. Who would you take in the remaining battles of good defense vs. bad defense? The Ravens, 49ers, or Texans versus the Saints, Giants, Patriots, or Packers. I think most of those matchups would go to the team with the bad defense.

Sadly, this weekend we'll only get to see one of those matchups as the 49ers host the Saints. The Packers get the Giants in a shoot-out frenzy, and the Ravens host the Texans in a defensive struggle.

Maybe it is just this season. Maybe we won't see another 5,000-yard passer for another 15 years. Maybe things will shift and a good defense will reign supreme once more, but I can't help but feel like defense in the NFL is waning in importance. The Saints, Patriots, and Packers each averaged over 400 yards and more than 32 points on offense in the 2011 regular season. The Packers and Patriots also gave up more than 400 yards per game (while managing to only give up around 22 points per game).

These are your two number one teams in each conference: teams that allow 400 yards per game. Isn't that mind-boggling? Isn't that wrong? I think it speaks to the death of defense.

My only hope is that we see a Baltimore vs. 49ers Super Bowl to restore order and allow the phrase "defense wins championships" to remain true.

I just don't see it happening. Do you?