For years, college football fans have been clamoring for a playoff system to determine the national champion. After this season's controversy surrounding the decision to play a regular season rematch for the title, even some coaches are jumping on the playoff bandwagon. Add to that the fact that three top 10 BCS teams didn't get BCS bowl game invitations, the cry for a fair system to decide who is the best team in college football is even louder. But would a playoff system have given us two different teams in the title game?
To answer that question, I figured that now would be a good time to set up a playoff bracket and use a simulation engine to play the games. I used the site WhatIfSports.com, one of the leading online simulation engines. To determine the playoff brackets, I decided that since there are five BCS bowls there should be at least 10 teams in the playoffs. But 10 is an odd number (not in math, but in bracket-making), so rather than drop two teams to form an eight team postseason, I added two to make it 12 with the top four teams getting first round byes. The brackets were of basic format: 5-12-4, 8-9-1 on the top, 7-11-2, 6-10-3 on the bottom.
We all know that teams play each other only once in bowl games and playoffs, but since I do not know how the algorithms are setup for each team (does the site give extra weight to SEC teams?), and in fairness to how a team would actually perform against its opponent if it played consistent with its actual season outcomes, I simulated each matchup 10 times.
The first round was played at the higher ranked team's home stadium with neutral weather conditions: 70 degrees with no wind or precipitation. For the quarterfinals, semifinals, and championship game, I assigned those games to actual bowl games for all the traditionalists (including myself), with the higher ranked team playing the in the stadium closest to its campus.
And, since there are seven of those games, I added the Cotton Bowl, Gator Bowl, and Sun Bowl, the three oldest bowls outside the BCS bowls, to host games. For the simulation, the weather conditions remained the same and the matchups were played at a "neutral" site since there was no option to select individual stadiums. Here is how it all shook out.
First Round
(12) Baylor at (5) Oregon
This series ended up being split 5-5, but Oregon edged Baylor in the score average.
Outcome: Oregon 33, Baylor 32.
(11) Virginia Tech at (6) Arkansas
Arkansas dominated this series, winning eight of the 10 games by a fairly comfortable margin.
Outcome: Arkansas 36, Virginia Tech 27.
(10) Wisconsin at (7) Boise State
This series also was split 5-5, but Boise State had the upper hand in score average.
Outcome: Boise State 37, Wisconsin 33.
(9) South Carolina at (8) Kansas State
This game was the only upset of the first round as another matchup split 5-5, but South Carolina won the score average.
Outcome: South Carolina 17, Kansas State 16.
Quarterfinals
(9) South Carolina vs. (1) LSU (Sugar Bowl)
The Tigers had no trouble winning this matchup, taking eight of the 10 games handily.
Outcome: LSU 28, South Carolina 11.
(7) Boise State vs. (2) Alabama (Gator Bowl)
For all the Boise State apologists, the simulation shows that they wouldn't stand a chance against the Crimson Tide. Alabama won nine of the 10 matchups by a fairly comfortable margin.
Outcome: Alabama 33, Boise State 22.
(6) Arkansas vs. (3) Oklahoma State (Sun Bowl)
This matchup represented the only sweep of the simulation, with the Cowboys winning all 10 games.
Outcome: Oklahoma State 43, Arkansas 27.
(5) Oregon vs. (4) Stanford (Rose Bowl)
Okay, so a lot of people don't like to see regular season rematches in the postseason — at least in college football — but this is how the rankings determined the matchups. Believe it or not, the simulation gave the Cardinal seven wins over the Ducks but the score average was dead even. To break the tie, I assigned a half a point for each of Stanford's wins ahead of Oregon's.
Outcome: Stanford 31, Oregon 29.
Semifinals
(4) Stanford vs. (1) LSU (Cotton Bowl)
This wasn't even close as LSU won eight of the matchups by somewhat large margins.
Outcome: LSU 35, Stanford 24.
(3) Oklahoma State vs. (2) Alabama (Orange Bowl)
This also was an 8-2 edge for 'Bama, although the scores were much higher and closer.
Outcome: Alabama 45, Oklahoma State 43.
National Championship
(2) Alabama vs. (1) LSU (Fiesta Bowl)
For those who watched the regular season game between Alabama and LSU, one thing was evident: the Crimson Tide essentially dominated the game and should have won by at least 16 points. Three missed field goals and a fumble inside the LSU 5-yard-line were key moments that kept the Tigers in the game. The simulation supports the notion that 'Bama should have won that game. In the 10 matchups, the 'Tide won seven of them, and most of the scores weren't even close.
Outcome: Alabama 31, LSU 20.
So while we still rail at the BCS for putting two teams from the same conference in the title game, maybe the polls, computers, and other factors that rank the schools got it right. And if the simulation of a playoff is anywhere near accurate, it proves they did.
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