About twice a season, the NBA League Pass package becomes available on my cable package for a one or two-week period. The first one always occurs at the beginning of a season, and the second is just after the All-Star Break. For most seasons, this registers an "Oh, hey, cool" in my brain, but I never venture my program guide into the 1400s where the channels are located.
Of all of the seasons to pay the most attention to the promotion, this would presumably not be the one. A prolonged lockout caused the cancellation of about 20% of the season's games, and was resolved with a Collective Bargaining Agreement that could have been hammered out very early in the process. That CBA could very well end up not seriously addressing the league's structural problems.
The season's eve saw one of the most farcical situations in the league's history pan out with David Stern vetoing a perfectly reasonable three-team trade between New Orleans, the Lakers and Houston for "basketball reasons". In doing so, he undermined a General Manager's previously assumed power and seriously altered those franchises' long-term plans. The biggest piece in that rejected trade, Chris Paul, ended up in Los Angeles, as a Clipper, but the damage was done.
Despite these reasons to stay away, my TV was tuned to basketball for a large portion of Christmas Day and did not turn off until after midnight Central Time when the Warriors and Clippers ended proceedings.
Through this past week, I've caught a fair amount of action, but one game I watched told me that my attitude towards the NBA regular season might be changing for good.
Milwaukee and Minnesota last year had a combined record of 52-112. In the past, I would not have even given this game's final score a look on the score ticker. Yet, it was a fairly enjoyable contest that I watched on League Pass, despite the Timberwolves' gratitude with the ball (25 turnovers). Kevin Love, as he has been wont to do in his career, kept Minnesota in the game and helped the team battle back from a 20-point deficit late in the third. Milwaukee's hometown hero, Jon Leuer, played a big role in the win, with 14 points in 20 minutes and a crucial late three-point play. Neither team may be a contender, but Milwaukee is a borderline playoff team and Minnesota can give the top clubs trouble, as was the case Friday against Miami.
I don't know that I'll ever be more of an NBA fan than a college basketball fan, but the fact that a random Bucks/T-Wolves game can now hold my interest is indicative of a slight change in preferences.
Many have hypothesized that the 2011-12 season will look a lot like the 1999 season, the only other time in NBA history when games were cancelled due to a work stoppage. While I agree that teams with less roster turnover from the year before will be more likely to succeed, I can't foresee a repeat of some of the oddities that were present that season.
The Knicks made that year's Finals as an 8 seed, and all of the Eastern Conference's playoff teams were separated by just six games. Even if the Celtics or Mavericks were to somehow only be the No. 8 seed in their respective conferences, it's difficult to imagine those teams (as presently constructed) defeating the Heat or Thunder in a seven-game series. It's also unlikely that the Milwaukees and Torontos of the world could only finish 8-10 games behind Chicago or Miami.
Along those lines, the quality of play in the league is miles better than it was 13 years ago. While statistical factors such as offensive efficiency and pace are down from a year ago, they are not as low as 1999, when a third of the league averaged below 90 points per game. As many as seven or eight current teams could probably beat that year's champion Spurs, including today's Spurs. That San Antonio club had only one player shoot over 50% for the year (David Robinson at 50.9). The team's best guards were Avery Johnson and Mario Elie, and they relied on Jaren Jackson for over 25 minutes a game.
Another factor in my interest in this NBA regular season is its brevity as far as games go. I completely agree that too many games are being played in short time periods this season. Even though the players are professionals, back-to-back-to-backs shouldn't be played under any circumstances due to injury risk and degradation of the product for the third night's game. A 56-game season with in the same late December to late April time span would have likely sufficed and given teams normal rest. However, with 16 less games this year, every game counts just a little bit more.
This year, if your team has a bad 10-game stretch, that's over 15% of the season, as opposed to less than 12% previously. A 66-game regular season in all years, with a normal October-to-April schedule would likely see increased interest in each game, and dividends paid out in TV ratings and attendance. Alas, no one should get their hopes up. The 82-game grind will be back next year and for the foreseeable future.
The current season also shows a definite hierarchy, but not so much so as to allow for no mobility or surprises in the league. The favorites for the title are certainly Miami, Oklahoma City, and Chicago. In the West, teams like San Antonio, Portland and the Clippers figure to be in playoff positions at the end of the year. The same can be said about New York, Atlanta, and Orlando in the East. Indiana and Denver could be dark horses for top three or four seeds in each conference due to their youth in a truncated season. Due to lost pieces and age, past years' powers in the Lakers, Boston and Dallas will represent fascinating case studies.
Despite all the warts and sheer incompetency associated with upper levels of NBA leadership, many factors on the court have converged to make the regular season one worth watching, even if you normally ignore much of the period until the playoffs.
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