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January 31, 2012

Three Keys to a Super Bowl XLVI Victory

This Super Bowl matchup between the Giants and Patriots is quite intriguing for many reasons. One of those is the fact that it's only the second Super Bowl ever where the two opponents represent a rematch of a previous Super Bowl and a rematch of a regular season game in the same season.

The only other time this occurred was during the 1993 season when Dallas and Buffalo met in the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season and the two had met during the regular season (Buffalo won that game, 13-10). Based on that history alone (if you put any credence into those type of stats), New England should win Sunday's game — they won the first Super Bowl matchup but lost the regular season tilt with the Giants back in Week 9, 24-20.

There are a ton of websites where this game has been analyzed to death by experts and non-experts alike. But I'd like to add one more analysis about this game, and it may be a bit unorthodox. Here's why.

When looking at the statistical differences between the two teams, two things are immediately clear: the Patriots have a better offense and the Giants have a better defense. In my estimation, this makes the game a tossup. The weaker defense against the weaker offense, combined with the stronger defense against the stronger offense basically makes it a wash — there's no real statistical advantage by either team. So the way I see it, there are three keys to the game that will bring victory to either side.

1. Pressure the quarterback.

The quarterback play has been the bright point for both teams, but when other teams have been able to get pressure on them, they've been successful. Looking at just the postseason, in the three games that both New York and New England have played that were blowouts, neither quarterback had much pressure put on them by opposing defenses. Both Atlanta and Green Bay were able to get only one sack on Eli Manning, and the Packers forced his only interception of the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady did throw a pick against Denver, but they were unable to sack him. However, in the conference championship games, both San Francisco and Baltimore were able to get quite a bit more pressure on Manning and Brady and nearly won those games. Manning was sacked 5 times by the 49er defense, while Brady was sacked once but threw two picks. If either defense can force the quarterback to make hurried throws or run out of the pocket, it could disrupt the offense because neither team has much of a running game.

2. Establish the ground game

The Giants were last in the NFL in rushing offense and New England wasn't much better, ranking 20th. But both teams have such good defenses that none of their playoff opponents could run the ball effectively against them, either. New York held their three opponents' top rushers to under 75 yards, as did New England (well, almost — Willis McGahee had 76 for Denver).

But, on the opposite side of the ball, neither team could muster a runner that posted more than 75 yards in the playoffs, save Brandon Jacobs, who rushed for 92 against Atlanta. If either team can figure out how to open up holes at the line of scrimmage to get their backs through and into the secondary, it will take a tremendous amount of pressure off the quarterbacks that both teams live and die with.

3. Win the turnover battle

If there was one key that I thought would favor one team over the other, it would be this one. During the playoffs, the Giants were +4 in turnovers, while the Patriots were -4; further, New York was +2 in its regular season meeting with New England. However, for the season, the Patriots were a +17 while the Giants were only +7. Whichever team can take the ball out of the other's hands the most will most likely have the upper hand in the game, since both offenses are pretty much the bread and butter of their success.

If I were to try to pick any favorites in these three categories, I'd simply have to look at it empirically. For the quarterback pressure key, the nod has to go to the Giants. They've collected 4 more interceptions and 21 more sacks than their opponents through the postseason, while New England has picked off 9 more passes, but only registered 15 more sacks than their opponents. That's +4 for the Giants there. As far as the running game goes, New England has the clear edge there. They've averaged almost 12 yards per game more through the playoffs than the Giants, and have also given up about 2½ yards per game less than New York. And turnovers slightly favor New England with a +14 to this point compared with New York's +11.

My prediction? It's pretty close, and statistically this game could be another one for the ages, but I have to give a slight edge to the Patriots. However, statistics don't mean a whole lot; otherwise, the phrase "that's why they play the game on the field" would never have been coined.

Posted by Adam Russell at 1:36 PM | Comments (0)

January 30, 2012

Maybe it's Still Getting Our Goats, After All

On the other hand, maybe we're not getting our goats as readily as I thought last fall. What the hell is this crap with sending San Francisco 49ers punt returner Kyle Williams death threats?

That was then: Nelson Cruz, designated goat of the 2011 World Series, kept a promise to turn up at a Mesquite, Texas sporting goods establishment the day after the Series ended. The right fielder kept the date despite knowing the eyes of Texas were locked upon him, but good, after the bottom of the ninth in Game 6: pulled in shallow enough, in manager Ron Washington's no-doubles defense, and with the Rangers a strike away from the Promised Land, Cruz couldn't reach far enough to haul down the drive David Freese whacked to the wall, for the first of two final-strike game-tiers the Cardinals would hit, before the night ended with Freese's Game 7-guaranteeing walk-off bomb.

Never mind the eight postseason bombs Cruz had hit to that point. Nor the would-have-been ninth earlier in Game 6, had Allen Craig not hauled it back in from over the fence in the Texas sixth. When the Cardinals finished what they began in the bottom of the 11th the night before, Cruz must have felt as though Bill Buckner was going to knock on his door holding a wreath in advance of his funeral. But wait — Cruz kept his Mesquite date and four hundred people showed up, not with murder in their hearts but love in the arms they wanted to throw around him.

This is now, and a mere three months later: Kyle Williams, punt returner for the San Francisco 49ers, waited on an overtime boot from New York Giants punter Steve Weatherford in the NFC championship game. He was already on the griddle after he couldn't handle a Weatherford punt late in the fourth quarter, the ball bounding off the 49ers' 39-yard line and then his right knee, tumbling off toward the hands of a Giant defender and turning into Giants' ball, 49ers' 29. Now, on the 49ers' 24, Giants linebacker Jacquian Williams punched the punt out of Williams' hands for Giants receiver Devin Thomas to fall upon. Five plays later, Lawrence Tynes sent one 31 yards through the posts to send the Giants off to a Super Bowl rematch with the New England Patriots.

It sketched Williams' name onto a stall plate in the goats' barn. And the Patriots are going to the Super Bowl, too, because Baltimore kicker Billy Cundiff picked the wrong moment to swap his helmet for goat horns. On a day New England quarterback Tom Brady looked like anyone but Tom Brady, and just moments after Ravens' wide receiver Lee Evans was stripped of a certain touchdown catch, with bare moments left in the AFC championship game, Cundiff shanked a 32-yard field goal attempt that otherwise might have sent that game, too, into overtime.

Maybe it speaks better of Baltimore fans than San Francisco fans, but neither Cundiff nor Evans have received any known death threats, on Twitter or through other channels. (It sure doesn't hurt that Cundiff may have been deked by a scoreboard error that compelled him to bum's-rush it onto the field for the attempt, though the sober professional in you says you're a field goal kicker, it's part of your job to be prepared for the prospect of a bum's rush to the tee.) Williams was flooded with death threats from cyberspace and through elsewhere for at least two days to follow. And while Williams responded with class, mindful enough of receiving far more moral support from his teammates on through most 49ers fans, it looks like the sports goat business still hasn't finished graduating to reasonableness.

You'd think 49ers fans had never been there before. Good thing Twitter wasn't around on January 20, 1991 with 2:36 remaining in that NFC championship game, a shot at a third straight Super Bowl win still within the Niners' reach. That's when Steve Young (filling in for Joe Montana, who was injured) handed off to Roger Craig, Craig plunged right into the middle of the Giants' defensive line, and nose tackle Erik Howard — who was ready for the inside run — butted the ball out of Craig's hands. Lawrence Taylor smothered it on the New York 43, Matt Bahr sent one through the posts seven plays later as time expired, and the Giants went to the Super Bowl on the wings of a staggering 15-13 win.

Apparently, nobody paid all that much attention to the manner in which Nelson Cruz was embraced and forgiven rather than vilified and run out of town, if not out of state. Kyle Williams now has the unfortunate status of keeping company with such baseball men as Don Denkinger and Mitch (Wild Thing) Williams. This is a very disheartening status for a punt returner who was in the game in the first place only because the 49ers' regular go-to guy on punt returns, Ted Ginn, Jr., was injured two weeks earlier. Denkinger wasn't exactly a fill-in; Mitch Williams wasn't exactly a last-minute minor league call-up spelling a suddenly-injured Phillie.

The Wild Thing was believed to have received threatening messages, and was affirmed to have received assorted sharp instruments lain around the tires of his family cars in his driveway … and that was only after blowing the save in Game 4 of the 1993 World Series. When he surrendered, with the Phillies up 14-10, yet, Tony Fernandez's fifth RBI of the game. When he walked Pat Borders, surrendered a two-out, two-run single to a Hall of Famer in waiting, Rickey Henderson (in fairness, center fielder Lenny Dykstra seemed to freeze before trying to run in for a catch), then served a pitch meaty enough for Devon White to hammer for a two-run triple and the game, 16-15.

Then, come Game 6, the Blue Jays ahead in the set 3-2, Williams gets the call in the ninth, the Phillies three outs away from sending it to a seventh game. All he has to do is dispatch the gaudiest lineup in the American League that season. All he has to avoid is letting Henderson lead off by reaching base. All he does is serve the Man of Steal a four pitch walk. All the Wild Thing has to do now is get rid of White, Paul Molitor, and Joe Carter. He does his job with White, luring him into a fly to center that Dykstra — who might have been the Series MVP had the Phillies survived — hauls down easily enough.

But he throws the wrong fastball to Molitor, and the Hall of Famer hits it on the screws and up the pipe.

Then, he throws the wrong slider to Carter on 2-2. Carter merely hits a 3-run homer for game, set, and World Series rings. And even if the Wild Thing had managed to bag Carter, there's another Hall of Famer (Roberto Alomar) on deck, and his bat isn't exactly papier mache, either.

Kyle Williams has something else in common with Mitch Williams. The latter Williams absolutely refused to let it get his goat or anyone else's. His teammates may have wanted to bury their heads in brown paper bags, after having swaggered their way to the World Series in the first place, but Williams didn't have a brown bag anywhere near his person when the postgame swarm of reporters reached his locker.

"Don't come to my locker and expect excuses," the Wild Thing said, soberly if with a small catch in his voice, the once-cocksure relief marksman brought to his knees by the worst public humiliation since Mookie Wilson's grounder skipped through Bill Buckner's creaky wicket, after two Red Sox relievers had blown a save into a tie Game 6 that the Red Sox started the bottom of the tenth leading by two. "I don't make excuses. I blew two games in the World Series. I feel terrible for letting my teammates down. But sulking doesn't bring the ball back over the fence. Life's a bitch. I could be digging ditches. But I'm not."

Kyle Williams sounded almost Mitch Williams-like in the immediate aftermath of the 49ers' overtime deflation. "It's one of those things you have to take accountability for," Williams said soberly enough. "Everybody is responsible for what they do on the field. It's something that I was responsible for and I made a mistake, and it's time to own up to it and move forward." He's only a second-year NFL man; he probably has a decent enough football career ahead of him. And if he doesn't, he's probably got a very decent life yet to live.

Phillies fans — too long reputed to be the least forgiving sports fans on the face of the earth ("those people," pitcher/flake Bo Belinsky, briefly a 1960s Phillie, once crowed, "would boo at a funeral") — turned out to be the most forgiving of Mitch Williams' fans. This is in large part because the Wild Thing wouldn't let them do otherwise. He had a mere three more major league seasons in him, in which he was anything but the pitcher who once saved multitudes of games after getting thatclose to blowing them sky high, or so it often seemed. He went from there to tending bar to managing in the minor leagues to becoming a television commentator. Not to mention turning up every so often for charity with Joe Carter, with whom he's forged a strong enough friendship. (Shades of Ralph Branca and Bobby Thomson.) And it's even money that nowadays people will talk more about Williams's endearing on-air persona than about the fatal 2-2 pitch that sailed over the left field wall.

Denkinger had it at least as bad in his hour of agony as Williams would in his. When he inexplicably called Dane Iorg safe at first base in the top of the ninth, when everyone in Royals Stadium including his teammates knew St. Louis reliever Todd Worrell had beaten him to the pad, and by three feet at least, it opened a door for the Royals to send the 1985 World Series to a seventh game. A game in which Denkinger, to the absolute and unapologetic outrage of everyone in a Cardinal uniform, turned up calling the balls and strikes in the standard ump rotation. It was no further Denkinger's idea for the Cardinals to implode as profoundly as they would in Game Seven than it was Whitey Herzog's idea, even, that Denkinger should have had to live with death threats, a radio disc jockey exposing his home address and telephone number, and police protection including a patrol car in the driveway of his Iowa home.

Today Denkinger is an outspoken advocate of official instant replay in baseball's championship rounds. It only took about three decades to rehabilitate his image, however long it took for the death threats and radio idiocy and police protection to dissipate.

Football fans can be and often are even more grotesque than baseball fans when it comes to failures in the heat of the biggest moments. The failures don't always have a common definition, either, and it isn't just players who are prone to those and the excess of fan outrage, either. Ask Nebraska athletic director Tom Osborne. He was the school's winningest head football coach ever, winning three national titles, and going an extraterrestrial 60-3 in his final three seasons in that job. And you can find enough Husker fans even now who remember little much else beyond Osborne's gutsy but failed attempt — when Miami safety Ken Calhoun smacked away Turner Gill's certain pass to Jeff Smith in the end zone — to win the 1984 Orange Bowl and the national title with a two-point conversion, instead of backing into the title with a tying point-after field goal kick.

Give me a dollar for every moment I heard someone call for Osborne's execution in the two or three years following that game (I lived in Nebraska in those years, serving with the Air Force) and I could retire myself and three other people comfortably.

"We were trying to win the game. I don't think you go for a tie in that case. You try to win the game," Osborne said matter-of-factly when it was all over. "We wanted an undefeated season and a clear-cut national championship ... I don't think any of our players would be satisfied backing into (the win and the title) with a (point-after). I don't think that's the way to do it." Eerily enough, in the preparatory run-up to the game, Osborne was asked if he'd try the two-pointer in just that situation. "I hope it doesn't come up," the coach replied. "I'll be crucified one way or another on that one." Jeane Dixon, call your office.

On the other hand, however, I don't remember Osborne getting death threats, either. Calls for his firing every 10 minutes, maybe. Burning in effigy, perhaps. I don't remember seeing or hearing about one, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen. This was a state, after all, whose voters — enjoying initiative, referendum, and recall among their electoral rights — once got thisclose to recalling every member of Nebraska's unicameral state legislature who voted against making the state's license plates the colors of the Huskers' uniforms. There's something just a little untoward about demanding a man's unemployment because he tried his level best to win and the attempt was beaten in fair competition. Never mind demanding the unemployment of a large group of men and women because they though there were more important laws to pass than flashing your team colors on your license plates.

Maybe Roger Craig learned to live it down because he'd already had three Super Bowl rings on his hand before running into Erik Howard's helmet. Maybe it doesn't matter how many rings you've got on your hands.

Here's hoping Kyle Williams — like his Wild Thing namesake; like Don Denkinger; like Tom Osborne (did I mention he also survived enough to beat Peyton Manning in the 1997 Orange Bowl, and become a three-term Republican Congressman from Nebraska not long afterward); like Roger Craig; like Ralph Branca; like Johnny Pesky; like Tommy Lasorda (he lost a trip to the World Series by letting Tom Niedenfeuer pitch to Jack Clark with first base open, two on, and the Dodgers one out from the '85 Series); like maybe every other Chicago Cub, every third Detroit Lion, and half as many New York Mets; like just about any of sports' most notorious goats — stuffs it right back down the throats of the idiot brigades whose software simply isn't programmed to accept the idea that games are played by humans. That humans are only too fallible. And, that somebody has to lose, because nobody, political correctness or otherwise, has yet figured out a way to make everyone a winner.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 12:17 PM | Comments (0)

January 27, 2012

Finding Cinderella: The Top Nominees

We always are looking for Cinderella around mid-March, right?

Time to beat the rush and start looking now.

Heading into the heart of the regular season, with conference play in full swing, it's time to search for the ultimate bracket buster. The contender from the pretenders. The difference between winning a pool and finishing in dead last.

Cinderellas can come in bunches, or can be near impossible to find. But here's the first edition of many at who could spoil a bracket or two come March.

The top five, if you please...

1) Murray State (20-0, 8-0 OVC)

They stand alone as the only undefeated team in Division I, but don't let anyone fool you, the Racers are legit. Two intangibles stand out with Murray State. First, you have to like a team who has crashed the dance in recent times, which the Racers did two short seasons ago (they were a basket away from ending Butler's run much earlier). Second, come March, you have to like teams with a solid point guard, and the Racers have that in junior Isaiah Canaan. Given also that Murray State has quality depth in terms of good shooters, and they're going to be a tough out, no matter the seeding.

2) Creighton (19-2, 9-1 MVC)

The Bluejays have relied heavily on Doug McDermott, but he's carried the weight in impressive style, proving he is one of the top forwards in the country. McDermott averages 23.5 points and 8.5 rebounds a game, all while keeping out of foul trouble, which only frustrates teams more as everyone knows the target is on his back. However, keep your eye on Grant Gibbs, though, as well. He averages close to 6 assists a game and is a key catalyst in the Creighton attack. A quick stat: Creighton is 3-0 this year against the Big Ten.

3) Wichita State (18-3, 9-1 MVC)

Gregg Marshall is one heck of a basketball coach. First, he goes to Winthrop, who'd never been to the NCAA tournament and promptly takes them seven times in nine years. Now, fresh off of winning the NIT last year, Marshall has the Shockers firmly in NCAA contention, thanks in part to a great start in conference play and a solid 19 point win over UNLV as a resume-builder. Wichita is tough because they have a great inside-outside presence. Inside, Garrett Stutz is a force, leading the team in points (12.9/game) and rebounds (7.6/game), while Joe Ragland, Toure Murray and David Kyles anchor the outside beautifully. Three solid guards spells lots of trouble for opposing teams in the Big Dance. Marshall plays a deep bench and coaches a team that shoots well and doesn't beat themselves on the court.

4) San Diego State (18-2, 4-0 Mtn. West)

This might be Steve Fisher's best coaching job yet. The Aztecs don't have a superstar player. Their overall stats aren't eye-popping. However, they're deep, they're balanced, they play incredibly hard, they're confident and they win. When your only two losses are to Baylor and Creighton, that's nothing to be ashamed about. Four players average over 10 points a game for the Aztecs, but my favorite to watch is Jamaal Franklin, a 6-5 guard who is second on the team in scoring (15.2 points per game) and leads the team in rebounds (6.8 boards a game). SDSU is just a lot of fun to watch. They have mischief written all over them.

5) UNLV (19-3, 3-1 Mtn. West)

19-3 with a resounding win over North Carolina at the Dean Dome. That's good enough already to ensure an NCAA bid, but the Rebels could definitely throw a kink or two in the plans of top seeded teams. Mike Moser is an absolute beast, averaging a double-double per game (14.2 points and 11.7 rebounds, respectively), and has to be contained for opposing teams to have any chance against UNLV. If you're a fan of the assist to turnover ratio, you'll really like the Rebels, as they average 4.2 more assists than turnovers each game.

So there's the five most dangerous mid-majors out there for now. Here's some teams though that could climb into the top five in time...

6) Harvard (16-2, 2-0 Ivy League)

This has to be Harvard's year to win their first trip to the dance, right? The loss to Fordham is puzzling; the win at Florida State looks better by the week.

7) St. Mary's (19-2, 8-0 West Coast)

Love the experience and the winning streak that the Gaels are on. The blowout of Gonzaga was particularly impressive. There's a test waiting for them this weekend at BYU.

8) Middle Tennessee (20-2, 9-0 Sun Belt)

They've yet to beat a ranked team, so they're not in the top five. Beat Vandy this Saturday, though, and then it's really time to start talking about the Blue Raiders.

9) Long Beach State (15-6, 8-0 Big West)

They beat Pitt and Xavier, who are slumping, but their near misses at Kansas and North Carolina definitely say that the 49ers are no fluke.

10) Oral Roberts (18-4, 10-0 Summit)

ORU is dominating the Summit League and has a win over Xavier to boot, though that's losing a little luster.

11) Denver (15-5, 5-2 Sun Belt)

A little inconsistent at times, but solid wins over St. Mary's and Southern Miss. The Sun Belt looks stronger than the Pac-12 right now. No, you read that right. Yes, I'm serious.

12) Southern Miss (18-3, 5-1 Conference USA)

Larry Eustachy's is back and with a vengeance. The Golden Eagles have nice wins over Ole Miss and Arizona, but with the lack of a marquee team on the schedule, need to finish strong to turn some heads.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

January 26, 2012

For Carmona, a Faustian Bargain

As an Indians fan, few players have been more frustrating to me over the years than Fausto Carmona, the man we now know is actually Roberto Hernandez Heredia, and three years older than he claimed. In a sterling 2007 season — more on that season in a moment — he sparkled with a 3.06 ERA and finished fourth in Cy Young balloting.

Since then, his ERA has been under 5.25 just once, in 2010. He's been wildly inconsistent, but more bad than good. I often wondered if it was worth keeping him around.

So I surprised myself by how upset I was to learn he had been arrested in his native Dominican Republic and revealed to be living a lie.

It's probably more common than we realize. Just last year, "Leo Nunez," the Marlins pitcher, was outed as really being Juan Oviedo and being a year older than he stated. Given that the Marlins just resigned him to a multi-million dollar deal, it looks like they are taking for granted that they will be able to get Nunez back to the U.S., which bodes well for Carmona (and I don't know whether to be surprised or not that millionaire baseball players are granted exceptions when it comes to such slam-dunk deportation issues as bearing a false identity).

But that's not to say I think Carmona should be deported. Or that he shouldn't be. This is one of those issues where it's impossible to know even where to begin. These are some very tough ethical issues to grapple with.

The Dominican Republic is a third-world nation mired in poverty. Baseball players are their most notable and proudest exports. Several MLB teams have an official training presence there. Besides luring quality players, there are several other reasons why establishing a base in the Dominican Republic is an attractive option for major league teams.

One is, foreign players are not subject to the MLB draft, so teams can sign as many players as they like. They can also develop players with a devotion and singular purpose that they can't with American kids who are busy with high school and college.

Most of the kids recruited into the DR development complexes are poor, poor, poor. Third-world poor. Baseball gives them an opportunity to get a way out, and when that opportunity goes wanting, players will do what they can to re-enter the system and try again, replete with a new name and birthday.

This is because the brains of baseball have decided, rightly or wrongly, that a players with skills but also, say, control problems or a lack of plate discipline are worth investing in at 16, but not at 18 or 19. At that young age, so the thinking goes, you know whether you have a real talent on your hands.

So the players who are 18 or older and dumped from a developing program have two options: give up, which would sting the pride of anyone, let alone a teenager, and, worse, go back to poverty with no real avenue to lift yourself out of that poverty.

Not only is baseball a chance to escape the poverty, but it's a chance to elevate your family out of it, as well. This cannot be overstated. We all know what a strong sense of family prevails in the Latin world.

In fact, it's easy to make the argument that lying-and-trying again is the ethical, family-saving choice.

But, obviously and reasonably, MLB teams do not want to be lied to. They don't want to invest in a player that statistically is much less likely to improve and, more to the point, they want to know what they are truthfully getting. Who wouldn't? And it's not MLB's job to eradicate poverty. They are in the Dominican Republic to find baseball players, not be an avatar of righting social inequality, which is a problem MLB did not create.

Towards that end, MLB has reacted to the burgeoning specter of age falsification by conducting DNA tests, bone density tests, and the like to determine as scientifically as they can what a player's real age is — and they test the players' siblings, too. A lot of teams have also responded by moving their focus from the Dominican Republic to Venezuela, where false identity problems are not much of a concern.

So Major League Baseball deserves to know what they are truly getting in a player and sign and cut players accordingly. But it's understandable and even in my view forgivable for players to try to game the system for the reasons I outlined above. That's why it's hard to extract right and wrong from all this, to assign good guys and bad guys, or at the end of the day, know what is the "right" thing to do about Carmona and others like him.

So with my moral compass failing to produce an answer here, I'm forced to default to a far more base instinct, sentimentality.

When Carmona is good, he is very, very good, and has already sewed himself into the fabric of Indians lore. He did so not just by pitching well, but by making himself into an icon of determination in a game that many Indians bloggers and commentariat are calling their favorite Indians memory, and mine as well.

2007 ALDS, Game 2. New York Yankees at Cleveland. You might remember the game, it became kind of famous. In the eighth inning, with New York up 1-0, a swarm of tiny insects called midges descended on Jacobs Field. It was so bad that play had to be stopped for a time. After a few minutes the game resumed, but the bugs were still there. On every pitch, the camera would close in on Yankees pitcher Joba Chamberlain. Drenched in sweat, Chamberlain swatted and rubbed and fussed against the insects covering his body.

I can still see the closeups of his neck with about a dozen of the small, non-biting insects taking root as he fruitlessly slapped at them, harried and distracted. It reminded me of some sort of fighting video game, where you can see the opponents health meter go down, bit by bit. The bugs, they got to him. Chamberlain threw 2 wild pitches and allowed 2 walks and the Indians tied the game off of him without a hit.

In the top of the ninth, it was Carmona's turn. He was composed. He didn't swat. He didn't call timeout for more bug spray to be sprayed on him. It was like the bugs weren't even there. He retired the first two batters, and after Bobby Abreu singled and stole second, Carmona struck out A-Rod to end the threat. He pumped his fist and yelled. It was his last pitch of the game, and the Indians went on to win in 11 innings and, three nights later, win the series.

A picture of Carmona, leaning in to read the signs of his catcher, his head in a cloud of midges, hangs in the Indians front office and in their spring training facility in Goodyear, Arizona, "an example to all the Minor Leaguers who pass by of the mental toughness it takes to succeed at the game’s highest level." as written by Anthony Castrovince.

That (and a righteous nosebleed delivered to Gary Sheffield) is who we are dealing with. That's Roberto Hernandez Heredia. That's Fausto Carmona. I hope he comes back, and is greeted with cheers and applause when he does.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 9:40 PM | Comments (1)

Super Bowl XLVI Proposition Bets

1. Winner: NY Giants/New England
2. Versus spread: NY Giants (+3)/New England (-3)
3. Total points (game): over/under 54½
4. Total points (1st quarter): over/under 10½
5. Total points (2nd quarter): over/under 14½
6. Total points (3rd quarter): over/under 10½
7. Total points (4th quarter): over/under 17½
8. Versus spread (halftime): NY Giants (+1½)/New England (-1½)
9. Number of team captains (both teams) at midfield for coin toss: over/under 9½
10. National anthem: a cappella/accompanied by music
11. Length of national anthem (from start of lyrics): over/under 1:34 ½
12. Kelly Clarkson's outfit: shorts sleeved/long sleeved/sleeveless
13. Winner of coin toss: Giants/Patriots
14. Coin toss called: heads/tails
15. Coin toss result: heads/tails
16. Patriots to: kick/receive
17. First possession begins at yard line: over/under 20½
18. First play from scrimmage: run/pass
19. Yards gained on first play from scrimmage: over/under 6½
20. First Patriots pass: complete/incomplete
21. First Giants pass: complete/incomplete
22. First penalty called on: offense/defense
23. Yardage length of first accepted penalty: over/under 5½
24. Tom Brady passing yardage: over/under 284½
25. Brady turnovers: over/under 1½
26. Eli Manning passing yardage: over/under 309½
27. Manning turnovers: over/under 1½
28. Rob Gronkowski receiving yards: over/under 66½
29. Ahmad Bradshaw rushing yards: over/under 68½
30. Victor Cruz receptions: over/under 7½
31. Wes Welker receiving yards: over/under 61½
32. Jason Pierre-Paul sacks: over/under r½
33. Giants total sacks: over/under 3½
34. Mark Anderson sacks: over/under ½
35. Vince Wilfork tackles: over/under 3½
36. Justin Tuck tackles + assists + passes defended – sacks: over/under 4½
37. Manning completions + Brady completions: over/under 55½
38. Hakeem Nicks touchdowns: over/under ½
39. Aaron Hernandez receiving yards minus receptions: over/under 52½
40. Lawrence Tynes point-after-touchdown conversions: over/under 2½
41. Justin Tuck tackles: over/under 4½
42. Brandon Jacobs rushing touchdowns: over/under ½
43. First team to score: Giants/Patriots
44. Points of first score: over/under 3½
45. Yardage length of first New York touchdown: over/under 11½
46. Yardage length of first New England touchdown: over/under 9½
47. Jersey number of first Giant to score a touchdown: over/under 44½
48. Jersey number of first Patriot to score a touchdown: over/under 83½
49. First touchdown: pass/rush
50. Punts (average yards-both teams): over/under 45½
51. Coaches challenges: over/under 1½
52. Two-point conversion attempts: over/under ½
53. Total points (halftime): over/under 27½
54. Add total points at halftime; sum is: odd/even
55. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (1st half): over/under 1:58½
56. Length of longest Stephen Gostkowski field goal: over/under 41½
57. Total yards (both teams): over/under 663½
58. Touchbacks on kickoffs (both teams): over/under 3½
59. New York red zone efficiency: over/under 37.66½%
60. New England red zone efficiency: over/under 38.47½%
61. Missed field goals: over/under ½
62. New York first downs: over/under 23½
63. New England first downs: over/under 25½
64. New York penalties: over/under 6½
65. New England penalties: over/under 4½
66. Tie score at any point in fourth quarter: yes/no
67. Largest lead at any point in game: over/under 7½
68. Attendance: over/under 68,256
69. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (2nd half): over/under 1:59½
70. Points scored in last two minutes of game: over/under 7½
71. Time outs called in last two minutes of game: over/under 2½
72. Jersey number of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 10½
73. Letters in last name of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 5½
74. Duration of game: over/under 3:19
75. Referee's jersey number: over/under 87½
76. New York time of possession: over/under 31:33½
77. New England time of possession: over/under 32:27½

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:56 PM | Comments (2)

January 25, 2012

Rookie Rubio: 2012 ROY Contenders

After a grueling offseason for the NBA's rookie class that consisted of negativity towards the talent levels, players deciding to sign in other countries, and the looming reality that they may not have jobs at all if the lockout continued, the 2011-2012 draft class has showed an incredible amount of toughness.

Even with a lot of things not going their way in October and November, Ricky Rubio and friends have been putting a muzzle on the preseason haters now that the season is in full swing. Though it began just a little over a month ago, the compressed season is a quarter of the way done and therefore it's not too early to start weighing the Rookie of the Year contenders for the draft class formerly known as dismal.

There are plenty of other names that are helping to prove that the 2011-2012 rookies are not nearly as weak as they were made out to be in the preseason, but I believe these five players (especially the last two) have the best chance to win the hardware at the end of the season:.

Iman Shumpert, G, New York Knicks — Unlike Rubio and Kyrie Irving, Shumpert is in the shade of two pretty big shadows in New York, playing alongside Carmelo Anthony and Amare, but he is putting up similar numbers to a few other third options like fellas named Ray Allen and Chauncy Billups. With Baron Davis coming back, there is a very real chance that Shumpert's 12 points a game could drop, but Baron has had a recent knack for taking a liking to an up-and-comer and making them even better with his playmaking abilities (Griffin in L.A. and the rest of his team in Cleveland). If Shumpert can let Davis mold his role, I think he could continue to put up contending numbers and be a key reason the Knicks turn their season around.

Marshon Brooks, G, New Jersey Nets — If any rookie is going to outscore Kyrie Irving this year, it will be Brooks. He is already putting in 15 a game and he is a budding star on a dismal team, which means he should start getting the rock more and more each game. This is a double-edged sword, though (like with Irving) because it is tough to weigh the value of someone who isn't actually contributing to wins. I think Brooks will end the season closer to the 20 ppg mark and hopefully another Net can step up and give him a break from the "he's only good because no one else is" talks.

Kawhi Leonard, F, San Antonio Spurs — Though no doubt the least productive and least recognizable name on my list, Leonard has a few things going for him that others on my list do not. Leonard is on a winning team, and thus he will start to be noticed more and more and the winning team he is on is the San Antonio "dinner at 4 PM" Spurs. With back-to-back (and a couple back-to-back-to-back) games continuing for the rest of the compressed season, the borderline elderly Spurs are destined for more injuries like the one that happened to Manu Ginobili last week. In Manu's stead, Leonard stepped into a starting role and dropped in double figures in all three starts. If he continues to get minutes (which he played over 30 in the two games previous to Manu's injury), I think he could really shake up the ROY voting when the season is ending for most other contributing rookies.

Kyrie Irving, G, Cleveland Cavaliers — Irving is having a great season already and his scoring prowess is even more impressive than I thought it would be after watching him at Duke. Though I'm a sucker for a dime-dropping point guard, and in turn I'm picking Rubio to win the award, Irving is no slouch in this category, either. He is an exceptional passer, but also knows that when his team needs a bucket, he should be the one shooting the ball and therefore his assists are understandably a little lower than I like to see from an every-minute point guard. The Cavs are 6-9 and in the East they still have a very good chance to make the playoffs, which would greatly show Irving's value to his team. I've been excited to see Rubio play in the states since he was drafted, but I'm also excited to say the NBA didn't have to go to Europe to produce an exceptional rookie point guard in the 2011-2012 class.

Ricky Rubio, G, Minnesota Timberwolves — Comparisons to Steve Nash normally make me laugh because he is the only pass-first player to win the league's MVP since Oscar Robertson, and he has done it twice. Ricky's comparisons to Nash are still way too soon if you ask me, but I think with some playoff wins and clutch plays down the stretch (which Nash has in spades), then the comparisons may become just. Rubio is only averaging 11 points per game, as opposed to Irving's 17, but he is also only taking 8 shots per game as opposed to Irving's 14 (both incredible percentages for rookie point guards). Rubio is a genius at making people better with solid finishers like Kevin Love and Michael Beasley, and his assists will steadily rise as his minutes continue to increase (33 mpg in the last 10). If the Wolves allow Rubio to be their guy, as the Cavaliers have allowed Irving, he will be the winner of the 2011-2012 Rookie of the Year award.

Posted by Gary Flick at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

Who is Federer's Secret Weapon?

As this article is being written, the quarterfinals are set at the 2012 edition of the Australian Open. We have entered the second week, and it has so far been a nightmare for reporters who are digging hard to report some news that may attract even a minimum degree of attention. American media have beaten to death the failure of American players to reach the second round (other than Serena Williams), and the Australian media was saved by the improbable progress of Lleyton Hewitt to the fourth round.

Outside of these minor exceptions, few and far between, there has been a terrific match between Kim Clijsters and Na Li, and we have seen the elimination of Serena prior to the quarterfinals, the first time that she has been eliminated this early in Australia since 2006.

One thing is certain: this year's Australian Open has been resting on the shoulders of the "be patient and you will get rewarded the second week" approach. There have been virtually no stunning upsets, and only less than a handful of matches that could be considered spectacular. The search for excitement in the media has gotten so desperate that on Sunday Thomas Berdych failing to shake the hand of Nicolas Almagro at the end of their match was the headline of the Australian Open page on more than one major media source. It's hard to blame them.

On the men's side, it's not a surprise that the top four seeds have advanced without problem to the quarterfinals; on the women's side, although it may come as a surprise to some that all four top seeds have advanced to the quarterfinals — it does not happen often on the women's side lately —– it is certainly not unexpected. And the lack of excitement during the matches is downright disappointing. Out of a total of 48 matches in the second and third rounds in the women's draw, only 11 of them went to a final set, and only a single one involving one of the top four seeds.

Therefore, I decided that I would talk about Pierre Paganini. No, he is not a participant in the Australian Open. He is not even a professional tennis player. He is just some guy who follows his player around 150 to 200 days out of a year, since the year 2000. He designs his player's training schedule and format; he decides what muscles to concentrate on before a certain tournament; he sets the dates for the two or three-week intensive training sessions that take place at four different strategic times of the year depending on his player's tournament schedule; he is so obsessed with his player's physical condition that he monitors his player's heart rate in different regions of the world so that the intensity of the training fits the physical condition of his player.

He also does not neglect to prepare separately and design surface-specific training sessions at the cardiovascular and muscular levels. Words like "speed, "endurance," and "velocity," along with how they relate to tennis players, are concepts that he has mastered down to an exact science, and as a result, he has developed over 100 exercises that are connected to various movements of a tennis player on the tennis court.

He is born in Zurich, Switzerland, raised in the Valais region of Switzerland. He was a violinist as a youngster and a former decathlon athlete. He looks in phenomenal shape today at 55 years of age. He is not a tennis coach. He is a personal trainer. His player's name is Roger Federer.

The world's No. 3 player from Switzerland is about to play his 32nd Slam quarterfinal in a row in a sport where most tennis players are not even capable of dreaming about participating in 32 Slams in a row, let alone be injury-free to play and reach the quarterfinals that many times in succession. But just for the sake of information, let's also throw this in for good measure: Federer is making his 49th Slam appearance in a row as we speak.

I reproach myself for having waited until now to give a tribute to the part that Paganini plays in Federer's career. It should not have taken a dry and slow week of Grand Slam for me to mention his name along with Federer's streak of injury-free and successful Slam appearances. And I can't help but wonder when the American media will give this man his due other than a light mention by Patrick McEnroe and the other commentators while the screen on TV shows a shot of Federer's player's box. Furthermore, I don't remember any major media in the world covering Paganini with a special segment, other than the Swiss media, but then again, I don't claim to follow all of them.

In any case, hats off to Pierre Paganini, and good luck to his player in the next few days.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 10:49 AM | Comments (5)

January 24, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI Preview

Five Quick Hits

* Congratulations to this year's Walter Payton Man of the Year Award finalists: Matt Birk, Philip Rivers, and Charles Tillman.

* Did you see Brandon Spikes hit Marshall Yanda from behind, then dive when he got a light push in retaliation? I think Spikes would be more comfortable playing soccer.

* Nice job by CBS and its camera crew capturing the Patriots' and Ravens' reactions to Billy Cundiff's missed field goal. A picture tells a thousand words.

* The Colts fired Jim Caldwell this week. He did fine when the team was good, but seemed totally lost when things started going wrong. The choice of who replaces him may be an early clue about Peyton Manning's future.

* Special teams is the most under-emphasized part of pro football. Games are routinely won or lost on field goals, blocks, returns, and well-placed punts. And fumbles.

***

Say what you will about the uneven quality of play in this weekend's games, they weren't short on drama. It's rare that any NFL game has an obvious goat, the guy who blew it seemingly by himself, but that was the case in both conference championships. First, Baltimore's Billy Cundiff missed a chip-shot field goal, then Kyle Williams of the 49ers just disintegrated, with a pair of punt return fumbles that led to 10 points for the Giants, including the game-winning field goal in overtime.

The snap and hold on Cundiff's kick were less than perfect, but that play is something close to automatic, and to lose a shot at the Super Bowl — my heart breaks for Cundiff. I have a lot less sympathy for Williams, who basically appeared to lose his mind on Sunday. More on this below.

Conference Championship Roundups

Patriots 23, Ravens 20

New England got back to its roots for this game. After switching to a 4-3 defense and faltering to a 31st-place ranking, the Patriots used a 3-4 most of the way against Baltimore, with the result that Vince Wilfork turned into Bob Lilly. After passing 49% more than they ran during the regular season, the Patriots used a balanced offense to keep the Ravens off-balance, and scored both their TDs on the ground when Tom Brady had his worst game of the season. It's this kind of open-minded coaching that has established Bill Belichick as the greatest strategist of his generation.

That said, both teams made questionable decisions that could have turned the tide in this razor-close contest. The Ravens kicked a field goal on 4th-and-1 from the 2-yard line. I understand feeling like you need to come away with something, but a touchdown and extra point are worth more than two field goals. You've got to give your offense a shot at that. In the third quarter, the Patriots did the same thing from the 6-yard line, which is more understandable but still a pretty conservative call. The touchdown is huge there. Neither team really made the most of its red zone opportunities, and in a close game, that's huge.

I was also surprised to see New England kneel out the first half. With :58 and two timeouts, you believe the chances of a turnover and a Baltimore score are higher than your chances of getting into field goal range? When did Belichick turn into Marty Schottenheimer? And what kind of first half is it where BenJarvus Green-Ellis (50 yds, TD) out-rushes Ray Rice (21 yds, 2.1 avg) and Joe Flacco (162 yds, TD) outdoes Brady (146 yds, INT)? Has the world gone mad?

Credit Baltimore's defense for making Brady uncomfortable. Bernard Pollard was particularly impressive, with solid tackling, a tipped pass that led to Brady's second interception, and the hit that may have injured Rob Gronkowski. Pollard, whom no one has ever charged with dirty play, is nonetheless the player who injured Brady in the first week of 2008, Welker at the end of 2009, and now maybe Gronk on the eve of Super Bowl XLVI.

Wilfork was the clear defensive star for New England, but defensive back Sterling Moore, whose blown tackle led to Baltimore's only touchdown, redeemed himself by breaking up a potential game-winning TD pass to Lee Evans with :27 remaining. The Patriots overcame a -2 turnover deficit by stifling Rice, who is visibly a gifted runner even when he doesn't have a big game, and forcing the Ravens to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. Huge game for Wilfork, in particular. I'd like to see New England stick with the 3-4 as its base defense going forward.

Giants 20, 49ers 17

No question: Ted Ginn's absence was the difference in this game. Kyle Williams did fine as a kickoff returner, but his punt returning was a disaster the likes of which I can't remember. His average (8.8) was okay, but Williams also fair caught two balls with no one near him, and he committed two inexcusable turnovers to cost San Francisco the game. First, Williams attempted to field a bouncing punt, then nonchalantly pretend the ball hadn't bounced off his knee. Dude, I don't know if you've ever noticed this, but footballs are oval. You can't predict the bounce, and you can't secure them easily in tricky weather.

The Giants took over at the 29-yard line and scored the go-ahead touchdown six plays later. Williams' bone-headed play — high school kids know you don't try to field that ball — totally changed the momentum of the game. That was the Giants' fifth consecutive punt, second straight three-and-out, and the Niners were winning and about to take over in good field position, with only half a quarter left in the game. When San Francisco battled back to send the game into overtime, Williams stepped in with another fumbled punt return to give New York possession at the 24-yard line, already very makable field goal range.

Credit the Giants for making plays on special teams, but Williams gave away the game almost single-handedly. This isn't even the first time it's happened. In his final game at Arizona State, the Territorial Cup against Arizona, Williams muffed a punt that set up the game-winning field goal. San Francisco's coaches should have pulled Williams off of punt return duty well before overtime. He seemed rattled, and it was clear that his decision-making was off. Even if he's your most explosive returner, it's not worth the risk that he'll create another turnover. Too late now.

Victor Cruz looked like he was playing through pain in the second half, but he was amazing in the first 30 minutes, with 8 receptions for 125 yards. Most of those catches came against Pro Bowl cornerback Carlos Rogers, whom Cruz beat over and over again. The difference in this game, apart from Kyle Williams' shenanigans, was third down percentage. The Giants converted more than half their third downs (5/9) in the first half, while the Niners converted only one all game (1/13) — a meaningless play as time expired in regulation.

Following Alex Smith's breakout performance against New Orleans last week, the 49ers for some reason used a Tim Tebow-style offense against New York on Sunday. Alex Smith ran often and effectively (6 att, 42 yds) and completed only one pass to a wide receiver (Michael Crabtree, for 3 yards). Even with a great receiving tight end like Vernon Davis, I just don't know if you can beat a good team without getting your wideouts more involved than that. Speaking of Davis, is he ever going to grow up? Both penalty calls against him were questionable, but he also had to know the potential for a flag was there. You can't draw 30 yards worth of penalties in a game like this.

This just wasn't a day on which things broke San Francisco's way. Twice, 49er defensive backs collided to break up their own interceptions, once causing a scary injury to Tarell Brown. And how do you give up a touchdown pass on 3rd-and-16 from the 17-yard line? You know your opponent is throwing to the end zone!

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XLVI: New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Indianapolis, Indiana
February 5, 2012

The obvious angle in this game is the Super Bowl XLII rematch. With the 18-0 Patriots looking to complete an undefeated season, the Giants, who went 10-6 and didn't win their own division, won an upset victory in what I feel was the greatest Super Bowl ever played.

There's a parallel to be drawn this year. The Patriots were the top seed in the AFC, an obvious contender from Day One. The Giants barely snuck into the playoffs, overcoming a 4-game losing streak and a sweep by Washington, while benefiting from the Cowboys' collapse and an inexplicable officiating decision that gave them a Week 4 win against Arizona. But when the playoffs started, the Giants came to play. They're a very real threat to New England, and I suspect most of the Patriots would have rather faced the 49ers in Indianapolis.

These teams met earlier this season, in Week 9, with the Giants winning 24-20 at New England. Turnovers and red zone efficiency were critical to the outcome.

NEW ENGLAND ON OFFENSE

Green-Ellis ran very well on Sunday, but the Patriots live and die with the pass. They can't beat the Giants if Brady has another off day. This matchup revolves mostly around two things:

1. The Giants' pass rush
2. Rob Gronkowski's ankle

Gronkowski creates matchup problems for every team in the league. He had 8 catches, 101 yards, and a touchdown the first time these teams met, and he was the only New England receiver to give the Ravens serious trouble. If he's unable to play or seriously limited, that's a major, major blow to New England's chances on Super Bowl Sunday. Even if Gronk is healthy, though, the Giants can still neutralize their opponent's offense with the kind of pass rush they brought four years ago.

The Giants' defense has played at a very high level over the last month, but it hasn't faced this kind of offense. I don't believe the Giants can cover Wes Welker and Gronkowski. But if they can get to Brady quickly enough, they won't have to. When the Giants get pressure with their front four (or five, including Mathias Kiwanuka), that puts any offense in a tough spot. The Patriots' ability to protect Brady may well determine the outcome of the game.

I'd look for the Patriots to mix things up on the ground, keeping the Giants off-balance, slowing down their pass rush, and setting up play-action. I think they'll be more aggressive than they were against the Ravens, taking more deep shots and keeping the offense on the field for fourth and short. But Brady has got to make better decisions than he did in the AFC Championship Game. The Giants have an explosive offense, and turnovers can quickly lead to points.

NEW YORK ON OFFENSE

Eli Manning played by far his best season in 2011, and he's looked great in the playoffs. The Giants are no longer a run-first team, and they look their best when Manning is connecting downfield with Hakeem Nicks and Cruz. The Patriots' secondary is not what it was nine or 10 years ago, so shutting those guys down probably is not realistic. Like the Giants, New England has to bring a nasty pass rush.

The Giants scored at least 20 points in all of their wins this season. In Week 15, Washington sacked and intercepted Manning three times each, held the Giants to 10, and won. In Week 11, the Eagles sacked Eli three times and picked him off once — Philadelphia 17, Giants 10. In the season opener, Washington sacked Eli four times, intercepted him once, and won 28-14. Manning's Achilles heel has always been turnovers. Put pressure on him, get him making decisions too quickly, rushing throws, and eventually he'll make a mistake. Vince Wilfork was a monster against the Ravens, and the Patriots need a similar performance two weeks from now. Mark Anderson is another guy to watch, the pass rusher who stepped up when Andre Carter got hurt.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The edge here has to go to New England. I don't like their return game, but they have good coverage units, Stephen Gostkowski is a solid kicker, and Zoltan Mesko was my choice for All-Pro punter. The Giants have pretty good special teams, too — just ask San Francisco — but the Patriots aren't going to give a game away with mistakes the way the 49ers did. I expect this matchup to be about positive plays, and the Patriots might make a couple more than the Giants do.

THE FORECAST

No one likes a broken record, but with two offenses this explosive, it's logical to think this game will come down to turnovers and red zone efficiency. You've got two pass-oriented offenses with dangerous, diverse receiving corps and Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks. You can't stop them, you can only hope to contain them near the goal line and force some mistakes along the way.

Who's more likely to win the turnover battle? Probably the Giants. Maybe I'm overreacting to Brady's poor game against the best pass defense in the NFL, and overlooking Eli Manning's historical fondness for throwing interceptions, but I don't see Manning giving this game away. In the red zone, however, I like New England. The Patriots threaten you so many ways, and this a team which is conditioned not to accept field goals. The goal is a touchdown.

Thus, the Giants win by forcing turnovers and succeeding in the red zone. The Patriots win by avoiding turnovers and limiting the Giants to field goals. This all comes back to pressure on the quarterback. Give Brady time to throw and he'll embarrass you. Let Manning get comfortable and you can't win. When everyone is healthy, the Giants have a better pass rush, and that gives them an edge. The Patriots' defensive failings have been overstated a bit, but this is not a dominant defensive team. The Giants, on their good days, play awfully good defense, and not just against Tim Tebow.

The Giants win this game by harassing Brady, forcing a couple of turnovers, and protecting the end zone. On offense, they get a couple of big runs from Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs, and keep the chains moving with Cruz and Nicks, at least one of whom goes over 100 yards. Eli stays calm, doesn't take sacks, and plays with controlled aggression, going after the big play when it's there but always protecting the ball.

The Patriots win with offensive fireworks. Brady plays his best Super Bowl yet, as the Giants struggle to cover Welker, Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, and Deion Branch while still maintaining some semblance of a pass rush. New England absolutely cannot win without a good game from Brady. Green-Ellis will get his carries, and he'll have to make some plays, but the passing game is the difference-maker. Special teams impart an advantage at some point, the Giants never get their run game going, and a relentless pass rush forces Manning into several key mistakes.

Either scenario is plausible, and this is a game that could go either way. Momentum is with the Giants, and they take the rematch, 27-20.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:49 PM | Comments (2)

A Writer Apologizes to the Kid, Gary Carter

It still takes a big man to say he thinks he stuck the needle into the wrong vein. Jeff Pearlman, the Sports Illustrated writer who seems never to have met a controversial athlete he couldn't analyze nigh unto death, is proving himself a very big man these days.

The news that Gary Carter's brain cancer has taken a far more grave turn, news his daughter (Kimmy Bloemers, Palm Beach Atlantic's softball coach, where her father is baseball coach) disclosed several days ago, has prompted the author of The Bad Guys Won, his remarkable retrospective study of the 1986 Mets, to issue a prose prayer with a mea culpa tucked inside:

***

It was a celebratory look at a team I loved as a boy, and while I praised the uproarious antics of men like [Dwight] Gooden, [Darryl] Strawberry, and [Lenny] Dykstra, I juvenilely needled (okay, mocked) Carter. Why, the first sentence of Chapter 6 reads, "Gary Carter is a geek" — a reference to his Boy Scout ways and Theodore Cleaver goodness ... Few Major Leaguers appreciated Carter's gung-ho attitude, and they infuriated (veteran incumbent Montreal catcher Barry) Foote by reminding him that, "The Kid's sure got heart!" and "Hey, look at the Kid's hustle!"

Upon arriving in Montreal (and, later, New York), Carter was routinely the butt of jokes, tagged "Camera Carter" and "Lights" for his apparent love of the limelight and scorned for his unwillingness to sleep with groupies on the road. "He rubbed a lot of people the wrong way," Warren Cromartie, an Expos outfielder, once told me. "Gary was just ... different."

Yet, in hindsight, different wasn't merely different. It was courageous. With both the Expos and Mets, Carter easily could have drifted toward the dark side, a la Gooden and Strawberry. He certainly had his choice of women and, had he so desired, his choice of drugs. In the confines of a professional locker room, peer pressure looms as largely as it does in a high school hallway. Cool divides itself from uncool, and makes certain to keep its distance. The takes on Carter that he was trying to highlight himself, that he was an over-promoter with a giant ego — weren't merely hurtful. They were incorrect.

Carter stood out because he cared and he hustled, and because family and the game of baseball were more important to him than finding the nearest strip club. Teammates like Cromartie and Strawberry, both of whom, in immature days, went out of their ways to ostracize Carter, did so out of insecurity. They saw an uncompromised figure and didn't much care for the vision of it.

***

This ought to jolt those to whom Pearlman has been something between a snitch and a skunk. He's had that image, apparently, ever since his notorious expose about once-formidable, but sadly stunted Atlanta Braves relief pitcher John Rocker. But he also composed perhaps the single most insightfully revealing biography of Barry Bonds (and a similar tome about Roger Clemens), painting a portrait through some 524 interview subjects of a man to whom talent was a license to be somewhere between searing and subhuman. (What did it finally say that, when Bonds finally excised himself from the game he'd come to soil, his team began to feel like a place to have fun — and won a World Series within three years of his departure?) On the other hand, his recent biography of Chicago Bears immortal Walter Payton was hammered somewhat for having revealed Payton to have been only too human, never mind that Pearlman's tone was anything but that of a scolding judge.

Pearlman's prose prayer for Carter is as humbling to a reader as it must have been to its author, who hadn't actually been as harsh in reviewing the Carter image as he seems to have feared. He had been a boyhood fan of the 1980s Mets who culminated, in all their randy glory (the sprawling subtitle of Pearlman's eventual book: A Season of Brawling, Boozing, Bimbo-Chasing, and Championship Baseball with Straw, Doc, Mookie, Nails, the Kid, and the Rest of the 1986 Mets, the Rowdiest Team Ever to Put on a New York Uniform — and Maybe the Best) with an extraterrestrial 1986 World Series triumph. (They'd steamrolled the league in the regular season, yet needed a couple of hair-raisers to win the pennant against the Houston Astros and the Series against the Boston Red Sox.)

Carter wasn't the only member of the 1986 Mets' clean contingent; he was joined by outfielder Mookie Wilson, infielders Tim Teufel and Howard Johnson, and perhaps one or two others. He was merely the most overt of the contingent (it took quite a guy to make the effervescent Wilson resemble a clinical depressive by comparison), and he offered no apologies for it. He really didn't drink. He really didn't do any drug stronger than what a doctor might prescribe for a given illness, and never recreationally. He really didn't smoke. He really didn't swear, not in normal conversation. (Carter, believe it or not, is said to have put an inadvertent motivational slogan into his mates' minds, in the bottom of the 10th, Game 6, 1986 World Series, when he muscled a two-out quail for a single off shaky Boston reliever Calvin Schiraldi, and told first base coach Bill Robinson, "I'll be damned if I'm gonna make the last f'in' out of this f'in' World Series!") He really didn't run around on his wife. He really didn't let his salary just stop to catch a breath in his pocket on its way to the nearest trendy haberdasheries, refer to himself in the third person, or engage a large entourage.

For that, Carter spent most of his major league career as an object of derision. Now the Hall of Famer fights for his life after a lifetime of living cleanly and without blemish, other than perhaps the standard just-human blemishes to which even the cleanest of men are vulnerable in periodic spells. I only ever knew Carter to make one big public mistake, his apparent lobbying to succeed embattled Willie Randolph as the Mets' manager a few years ago, while seeming to forget for the moment that Randolph hadn't yet gotten that close to the Mets' guillotine. I zapped Carter for that one in an older and now defunct e-journal. If that's the only legitimate blemish on Carter's resume, he's still a far better man than most of those to whom he was something between a nuisance and a virus.

"Gary is a great man," his '86 Mets teammate (and World Series MVP) Ray Knight told Pearlman for The Bad Guys Won, "and if a lot of people emulated his lifestyle, they'd be a lot better off." That's what whispers from between the words Pearlman deploys now. What also whispers from between those words is what Pearlman can't bring himself to say outright, even as he's seized by the need to apologize: living right, living clean, dying at 57, where's the justice?

Carter is too modest to say it for himself. His loving daughter is too respectful of her father's fortitude to say it for him. But right now there must be quite a contingency asking the same question. Where's the justice, for a man who turned a derisively-applied nickname into a badge of courage known as The Kid, and whose clean life is under siege from an insidiously advanced disease for which the prospects of conquest look as small as his critics when faced with a genuinely decent man?

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:40 AM | Comments (0)

January 23, 2012

What Ails Us

Sick.

Sick can be literal, immediate. Joe Paterno died Sunday morning, lung cancer delivering the mortal blows in the inevitable battle we all lose at some point. Paterno fought maladies through the past decade as might be expected of a man reaching 85-years-old. We knew deep down that one day the venerable coach would be gone, but like the best magician, he escaped those perils and, with a brush of the sleeve, presented himself unscathed at the end each time. We all exhaled; the icon was never really in danger.

But Sunday morning, his invincibility was broken. This sickness was serious and vicious. Cancer, like any coward, attacks in moments of weakness, and when weakness isn't within reach, it transforms the strong until they fit that description. For a man who served so many men during his life, there was at least some fairness in that life being taken from something outside humanity.

Sick, colloquially, can describe an unfixable flaw. Former Penn State assistant Jerry Sandusky was arrested this past fall for a series of sex abuse charges. Sandusky used the power and access afforded by his Penn State appointment to the nauseating depths of human potential, manipulating children too inexperienced to check down in the face of a life-altering blitz.

Flawed to his core, Sandusky certainly would have found prey in whichever waters he hunted. But in State College, a brand-first community like so many in our country, he found a predator's paradise, a reef of potential victims who would not expect his advance.

Directly and indirectly, Paterno created this harbor. Paterno, by far the biggest fish in the State College pond, knew the predator was hunting. But rather than protect the ecosystem, he looked away. Yes, due process and proper channels muddied the waters, but Paterno the Whale could have ended the terror in a number of ways.

But it wasn't only Paterno's inaction that incubated Sandusky's sickness. Paterno's State College was supposed to be insulated from this kind of horror. Disconnected from Rust Belt decay and East Coast debauchery, mythical State College was a place where the home-standing blue and white withstood the invasion of the outside for decades. Time passed, but as long as Paterno was there, milk-and-cookies Penn State was, too. Vigilance seemed a waste of time.

Paterno's State College passed away in November a few months in advance of the man himself. The myths of insulation and safety are smashed. New head coach Bill O'Brien and whomever else becomes the face of the university will work to create a new vision of the college town, but whatever it looks like, it can never go back. Sandusky's sickness was contagious, claiming the old Penn State along with his child victims.

Sick can signify a temporary drop in quality. College football programs ebb and flow, but rarely like Penn State did in the past two decades. NCAA rules were partly to blame. Changes in scholarship totals allowed talent to spread across the country like silt carried by the Nile's flood waters.

A consequence of that diaspora was a foundation-rocking change in the sport's structure. The traditional dominance of programs like Penn State became endangered, and after dominating the Big Ten in its first few seasons in the conference during the mid-'90s, Paterno's teams struggled into the new millennium. Relegated to unprecedented mediocrity, the Penn State fan base began to wonder whether their iconic leader had finally become a relic no longer fit for an evolving reality. In a display soaked with generational symbolism like honey through layers of phyllo dough, one Penn State fan even registered FireJoePaterno.com. The new Penn State needed a reason to believe the old Penn State could still exist.

And then 2005 happened. In Happy Valley, the early season success probably felt like the breaking of a fever, portending a return to normal health. But nationally, the narrative of Paterno's age and Penn State's orthodoxical decay stuck, and the Nittany Lions' quick start was greeted with skepticism.

Yet on October 8 of that year, Penn State received a full bill of health. Yes, the defense was inspired and buried a top-10 Ohio State team, but that night was about more than the result. The frenzied crowd wore white — the original White Out — and showed a national audience what Penn State still could be. The proud program went 11-1 and won the Orange Bowl, and Paterno the coach proved he was more than a mascot of a fading program. The malaise was lifted; as much as ever, they were Penn State.

Sick can be ascribed to a society at large, noting decay. As its leaders and upper crust grew increasingly glutinous, Rome was sick. Fueled by the embarrassment of World War I's aftermath and willing to accept genocide as a coping mechanism, Nazi Germany was sick.

An ailing community is not rotten through and through. There were noble Romans; certainly, the entirety of WWII Germans were not evil. But when good people allow wrongs to go unchecked through association or inaction, it signals a sickness of communal proportion. How much can we blame the society, the members whose fault is merely impeding the glaring faults of others?

In a purely utilitarian society, Joe Paterno would be lauded. The mass of those he beneficially influenced easily could tally six figures. Players, coaches, families, and fans felt better and were better because of Joe Paterno. But sometimes individual consequences have broader significance.

When a society's best man doesn't stop its dire threats, it speaks to the community's health. There was no more noble Penn Stater than Joe Paterno, but even he couldn't heal a community sick with an inability to question its idols.

When a person of note dies, we rush to discuss his legacy as if the balance of a person's impact on this planet could be neatly transcribed on a note card and filed away for reference. Like all of us, Joe Paterno will be remembered for his wins and losses, his virtues and his faults. But no life is that simple. Nobody's existence should be boiled down to a syrupy reduction so the rest of us can taste its most prominent notes.

Joe Paterno, the man, was beneficially influential to an army spanning decades. And Paterno, the icon, was in some part responsible for a bubble where fanatical devotion blinded justice to the plight of several victims. His legacy will vary by with which of those parties you most closely identify.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 6:13 PM | Comments (0)

Superman Needed?

A few short weeks ago, someone on this site who claimed they knew what they were talking about wrote, "I can't foresee a repeat of some of the oddities that were present [in the 1999 season]." That season was, of course, the only other time the NBA missed games due to a work stoppage. He went on to say, "… the quality of play in the league is miles better than it was 13 years ago."

Yes, that writer was I. While I still largely agree with the latter assertion, you wouldn't know it depending on the games you've been watching. In Friday night's Lakers/Magic game, Orlando raced to a 23-point second quarter lead on the back of just 40% shooting. ESPN's Mike Breen and Jeff Van Gundy, who broadcasted and coached games in that 1999 season, respectively, couldn't help but remark on the game's poor nature. League broadcast partners are usually more diplomatic about such statements, although the contest deserved no such restraint.

Earlier in the week, those same Lakers played the Mavericks. The game film has since been incinerated by the league office in New York. If you had the game recorded on your DVR, David Stern's minions found a way to hack your hard drive and erase the game. The teams combined to shoot just 36.5 percent from the floor and 13.8% from three. The Mavs won the third quarter by 9, scoring 16 points. The 100th total point of the evening did not come until the 11:00 mark of the fourth quarter.

Of course, the common thread in the two ugly contests is the Lakers, who have a winning record but are saddled with the coaching of Mike Brown on offense. There are many adjectives to describe Brown's offenses as a head coach in the NBA, none of which include creative, efficient or entertaining.

The other comment I made three weeks ago about the oddities of the season looks to be completely wrong. Golden State, who is still struggling to find an identity under coach Mark Jackson, has 3 home wins. Two of the three wins are against the East's two most talented clubs, Miami and Chicago. On Wednesday, Oklahoma City lost at Washington, who came into the game at 1-12. The back-to-backs and constant travel have already made playing at a consistent, high level impossible, even for the league's best. Most casual fans decry how many off-days are taken during the playoffs. This year, they will be needed in the worst way.

As always, the lesson is not to hop on the jump to conclusions mat after just a week of games in any season in any sport.

Before that Lakers/Magic game on Friday night, the storylines centered around a possible Dwight Howard-to-L.A. deal involving Andrew Bynum going the other way.

The rationale for GM Mitch Kupchak to swing the deal is easy to figure out. It would give the Lakers' the league's best big man, pairing him with a top-five power forward in Pau Gasol. Howard would not have to be the go-to guy on offense for the Lakers, a role he has looked uncomfortable in at times for the Magic. Furthermore, it would eliminate concerns the Lakers have at the five about injuries. Howard has missed all of seven games in his eight-year career. Bynum has missed an average of 23 games a season in his seven years.

But neither Kupchak nor Orlando GM Otis Smith should pull off the trade.

For the Lakers, a straight-up Howard-for-Bynum deal is unlikely, especially after Howard eviscerated Bynum Friday night. Although Bynum is having a career year, Howard is better at both ends of the floor, and is a dominant rebounder. On Friday, Howard rebounded a phenomenal 40% of the Lakers misses on the defensive glass.

The only way Smith would make the swap is if he was absolutely sure Howard was opting out of his contract this summer and that he had no chance of re-signing the three-time Defensive Player of the Year. Right now, Orlando is 10-4 and could win the Southeast Division with Howard as their superstar. Bynum has never been the focal point of a team, and to ask him to start now with a different team in the middle of an unconventional season is optimistic at best.

If extra players were to be thrown into the deal, they would have to come from the Lakers' sub-par collection of role players. Luke Walton or Metta World Peace wouldn't exactly qualify as great additions to an Orlando team that has much better role players behind Howard.

The Lakers do own an additional first round pick this year from Dallas as part of the Lamar Odom trade (as well as sizeable trade exception from the same deal), but it is top-20 protected through 2017. Given Dallas' run of consistent winning seasons and willingness to spend in the summers, the Magic might not be seeing that particular pick for a while. For the reasons mentioned above, the Lakers should view any picks as valuable assets to improve the team's depth.

The other teams on Howard's list of preferred potential trade destinations are the Mavs, Nets, and Clippers. Let's nip the most far-fetched one in the bud first. Due to CBA rules, the Clippers cannot trade center DeAndre Jordan until December 21. Add to that the fact that the team needs to extend Blake Griffin in the next two years with limited cap space, and you have a situation where the Clippers are only on Howard's list because they are better now and play in Los Angeles.

The Nets are hindered by Brook Lopez's injury and the fact that like Jordan, Kris Humphries and Mehmet Okur have restrictions that prevent them from being traded at the moment. Although the Nets have two first rounders for 2012, other players the team could offer are likely undesirable to Smith. The Mavs would have to dip into an aging rotation to offer something of value to the Magic, despite possessing four trade exceptions to try piece together a deal with.

In other words, no other team Howard wants to go to has something as good as Bynum to offer the Magic.

The picture for the Lakers to acquire Howard becomes much clearer in the summer. Assuming Howard opts out, the Lakers could sign him as a free agent, and decline Bynum's option for 2012-13. If you're the Lakers, it doesn't make sense to sacrifice your team's already suspect depth for a player you have a good chance at acquiring in July. If you're the Magic, you still have a good team that could get hot in May and June. Smith could very well lose Howard for nothing, but can still offer the center $30 million more than any other team and a longer contract.

The Lakers probably don't have much of a chance to win a championship this year, even with Howard. The offense and bench are bad. Kobe Bryant has been beyond amazing this year, but he shouldn't be expected to play 40 minutes or more every night. If the Lakers want to improve their team, they should be patient and not sacrifice a potentially bright long-term future.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 12:30 PM | Comments (0)

January 21, 2012

Occupy March Madness

There are many thankless jobs in our country. After all, someone has to be the general manager for Terrell Owens' arena football team. But this March, the toughest gig going will belong to NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Selection Committee chairman Jeff Hathaway. Chairing the committee means being a lightning rod under normal circumstances, but doing so for the newly expanded tournament is sleeping in a suit of armor atop a hill during a thunderstorm.

Hathaway is the bouncer to a once exclusive party that has broadened its invitation list. With the tournament in its second year of accepting 68 teams, the decisions this year are going to be brutal. Just three weeks into 2012, only four BCS conference teams are undefeated in conference play, and only five are winless. Perennial tournament candidates like Texas and Pittsburgh have stumbled out of the gate, and the selection committee will be lucky if they stumble their way out of tournament discussion.

And yet, while this year's prospective tournament field seems especially bunched toward mediocrity, it is a team from last season that will give the 2012 tournament selection committee fits. Darn those 2010-2011 VCU Rams.

Before VCU, the committee could at least pretend that the teams battling on the tournament's at-large margins were not ultimately relevant to its final outcome. Yes, we deduced that George Mason may well have been the last team into the 2006 tournament, but at least the veil of seeding flexibility brought some plausible deniability. The committee could always claim that it shuffled teams around once inside the safe confines of tournament admission, and we did not have to concern ourselves about how close a Final Four team came to not even being invited to Round One.

But not anymore. The new First Four is nauseating for any number of reasons, but it should leave this year's committee sickest of all now that we understand its significance.

In the gimmick's debut last year, the tournament pitted VCU against USC. This was one of only two games that opening Tuesday, and both teams, forced to play an extra play-in round, could not avoid the reality that they escaped the NIT by the slimmest of margins. Jay Bilas (and others) railed against the Rams' admission, yet two weeks later they faced Butler for the right to play in the season's ultimate game. All of a sudden, the gravity of cutting teams from the tournament field was inescapable.

There was a time when talent was more centralized and access to a national championship was more restricted. Even if the smallest conference champion was allowed into the field, class and seeding would surely see to it that a fluke champion was impossible. But slowly, David's warm blanket of invincibility has been unraveled, and there is very little “dead money” playing for March's highest stakes anymore.

Based on VCU's example, every team that feels snubbed by the tournament committee will be sure that it could have been the latest version of Shaka Smart's upstarts. And why not? There was a time when at-large bids were few (or none), and talented teams would circle a bid to the tournament like sharks around a baby seal. Now teams on the tournament periphery still circle, but they do so like bubbles around a drain, mostly without control of their destinies.

As Americans, we may value social mobility, but as college basketball fans, it makes life much more complicated. At least the BCS gets that right.

Instead, the tournament's wider doors devalue the accomplishments of the teams that qualify. After all, if VCU could get within a breath of a championship as one of the last teams in the tournament, don't the teams that finished just a hair behind the Rams have the right to believe they could have done the same if given a chance?

In a few weeks, the cliched bubble discussions will begin and teams barely holding .500 conference records and schedules rated in the bottom half of Division 1 will scavenge for the last tickets to the Big Dance. These teams, which will probably include the West Virginias and Purdues of the world, are not great teams. Their final resumes will be interchangeable with at least a half dozen other teams, unremarkable from dozens of other teams that have and have not made the cut in past years. And yet, now these teams all matter because a scrappy team from Richmond put together an impressive three weeks.

There will be many big games over the next few weeks as college basketball seizes the national spotlight. But pay close attention to those in the middle, too. If the last few tournaments are any indication, Final Fours belong to the middle as much as the one percent.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 12:23 PM | Comments (0)

January 20, 2012

Foul Territory: Tebow-ing, Rob Lowe-ing, T.O.-wning

* True Lies, or and We All Know Tiger Woods Deals Only With "Professionals," or Masters Bait — Tiger Woods called the book by his former swing coach Hank Haney "unprofessional" and said he will not read it. The book, titled "The Big Miss," is scheduled for release just prior to The Masters. The book chronicles Haney's tenure as Woods' coach from 2004 until May 2010, when Haney told Woods the same thing that Woods once told Elin Nordegren: "My swinging days are over."

* Bum Rushed, or the Seminoles Went on a 12,200 "Run" to End the Game — Florida State beat No. 3-ranked North Carolina 90-57 on Saturday, handing the Heels their most lopsided defeat under Roy Williams. Seminole guard Deividas Dulkys scored a career-high 32 points, including the game-winning three-pointer with 14:34 left in the second half. Williams removed his starters with 14 seconds left to avoid to onrush of FSU fans storming the court. It's unclear who had an easier time engulfing five Tar Heels — FSU fans or FSU players.

* The Judge Made it "Arraign" — Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Pacman Jones pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor charge of disorderly conduct in Ohio, stemming from an incident in July at a downtown Cincinnati bar. Jones, who has been suspended twice by the NFL, will likely face discipline again from the league, and should he plead for leniency, Roger Goodell will likely reply, "Why should I? I don't know you from Adam."

* Finally, He's Taking Ownership of Something — Terrell Owens announced that he will play for and become co-owner of the Allen Wranglers of the Indoor Football League. Owens now becomes the second washed-up NFL star to endorse Wranglers.

* O.C. Sayonara, or Mike Check Out — Chicago Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz is retiring from the coaching profession after 20 years in the NFL. And, unlike his offenses as of late, no one is going to stop him.

* Second Coming — John Elway said Tim Tebow will begin the 2012 season as the Broncos starting quarterback. The announcement came as a surprise to no one, especially Brady Quinn. It's possible Elway's perceived endorsement of Tebow was misconstrued, as Elway stated, "We plan to make some upgrades in our passing game, starting at quarterback, Tim Tebow."

* GGGlutton For Punishment — New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams accepted the coordinator position in St. Louis, joining good friend Jeff Fisher, who was officially named Rams head coach on Tuesday. In the Saints 36-32 loss to the 49ers on Saturday, Williams' defense couldn't stop San Francisco's offense once. Now, in the NFC West, Williams' defense won't be able to stop the 49er offense twice.

* Horse-Shoo!, or Even Rob Lowe Could Have Predicted This Correctly — The Indianapolis Colts fired head coach Jim Caldwell on Thursday after a 2-14 season made difficult by the absence of Peyton Manning. Caldwell made the best, or worst, of a tough situation, depending on whom you ask. Most would agree, however, that Caldwell left a "last-ing" impression on the team.

* Lowe And Behold — Actor Rob Lowe tweeted on Wednesday, citing information he'd heard from "his people," that Peyton Manning planned to retire. Lowe is good friends with Colts owner Jim Irsay, and even better friends with hearsay and rumor. Manning cleared the confusion with a tweet of his own, in which he confirmed he was retiring, but only for the night, because he was sleepy.

* That's a Mound of Cash, or Big League Yu — Japanese pitching sensation Yu Darvish signed a six-year, $60 million deal with the Texas Rangers on Wednesday. Including a $51.7 million posting bid, the Rangers paid more than $111 million for Darvish. Reportedly, Darvish has seven solid pitches in his repertoire, while his agent has one great "pitch."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:19 PM | Comments (0)

January 19, 2012

Clippers' Time Still Not at Hand

Last Saturday night, the Clippers beat the Lakers in the first regular season meeting of these Los Angeles neighbors since the Clippers hit the talent buffet with both hands this offseason, and the basketball world is giddy. It's as if Chris Paul, Caron Butler, and Chauncey Billups are somehow going to reverse 28 years of apathy toward the Lakers' lowly step-siblings. Lob City, we now call them. Here on Sports Central, our own Bill Hazell even prophesied of a legitimate basketball rivalry in L.A.

Well, Rome wasn't built in a day, and Los Angeles isn't going to build basketball equilibrium in one season. After all, people love winners and they love glitter. The Lakers are both. Until now, the Clippers were neither.

Through the previous 27 seasons sharing the same address, the Clippers have won 35% of their games; the Lakers, 66%. As Hazell points out, there have only been four seasons in which the Clippers won more games than the Lakers. And while they've made four postseason appearances, Showtime has eight rings. Disparity in success translates into disparity in attendance as well. The Lakers play in front of sell-out crowds of 19,000 every night, while the Clippers average 2,000 less in the same arena. Ice Cube, Flea, Jay-Z, Denzel Washington, and Jack Nicholson are all Staples Center regulars on Laker nights, while the Clippers counter with Malcolm in the Middle. Penny Marshall splits her loyalties.

Clippers fans can look to this new year for balance. They've got forward Blake Griffin, and he is cause for hope. In an electric rookie year, he threw down 214 dunks to go along with 22.5 points and 12 rebounds per game, sending notice to Hollywood that a new superstar is in bloom. Then there's the double-plus from this year's offseason pick-ups: Paul, the NBA's marquee point guard, was acquired after Commissioner David Stern rescinded a three-way deal that would have sent him to the Lakers; Butler is an ex-Laker looking for redemption; and Billups was won in an amnesty auction under the new CBA, blocking his move into unrestricted free agency, where the Lakers were lying in wait. That's addition by both addition and subtraction.

A two-game preseason sweep over the Lakers was one thing, but Saturday's win further validated GM Neil Olshey'e grand design as it transitioned to the hardwood. Paul scored 33 points, Billups 19, and Butler 13, while Griffin pulled down 14 rebounds. Even more, the win put the Clippers in first place in the Pacific Division for three days, percentage points ahead of the Lakers. In fact, after a Martin Luther King Day win against the New Jersey Nets, they amassed seven wins in their first ten games for only the second time since moving to L.A. Another thriller last night against the defending-champion Dallas Mavericks helps the cause, but it's going to be a long road to purge second-class status in a town where image is everything. Especially when Kobe Bryant has the L.A. market cornered on image.

In true theatrical form, the 33-year old Bryant is the archetypical villain launching an improbable attack out of nowhere. A 31-point second half on Saturday notched Bryant his fourth straight 40-point game, and Hollywood was a-buzz. Forget the Lakers loss. Forget the Clippers win. Hell, forget the team concept completely, because Kobe is back in form, shooting aplenty and scoring seemingly at will, and that is what the NBA is all about. It's not the outcome; it's how you get there.

If the Clippers are the NBA's LMFAO, the Lakers are its Rolling Stones: they made their bones in the 1960s and were still kicking it into the new millennium, but now need a blood transfusion each day. Kobe's scoring is their transfusion. He does it often and sometimes in spectacular ways, and Glitter loves it.

Throughout last weekend, my television displayed graphics of old players that have won scoring titles, of consecutive 40-point games, of most 40-point games in a career. On Saturday morning, ESPN convened that panel of Kobe rump swabs it calls NBA Countdown, and the exercise was to fill in the blanks, the blanks being adjectives that describe Bryant. Jon Barry chose something along the order of "unstoppable," while Magic Johnson went with "historic." Bryant even got a Shaq-tastic from TNT's Inside the NBA. It's a campaign that's not going to go away with an occasional 14-point performance against the Mavericks, but until it does there will be no new Kings of L.A.

For the Clippers to usurp that title, they need a whole lot more help from Father Time than they've been getting. With Bryant averaging nearly his age, and 37-year old Derek Fisher hitting game-winning treys on Kobe off-nights, the Lakers have been a tough shake for the Clippers. The shortened 66-game season could be an asset as games pile up and make Showtime's aging bones weary.

The Clippers have to help themselves more, as well. They could start by stringing together a few good drafts for a change. Has anyone seen Shaun Livingston, Yaroslav Korolev, and Al Thornton lately? And more head-to-head beat-downs on the Staples Center floor won't hurt, but off-court victories like Paul and Billups will go further. Enter Dwight Howard. On Monday, the current Magic center and apparent cornerstone of Lakers Future let it be known he now wants to be a Clipper. If Howard is in red, white, and blue next year, can winning and glitter be far behind?

Finally, stars on the bench are great, but stars in the crowd are even better. They are the ultimate arbiters of popularity in Tinseltown. Everyone else will fall in line. We will know L.A. is a two-team town when Clipper Darrell is more recognized than Nicholson, and Penny Marshall stops napping in the video crew room during Clippers games.

That day may soon come. Just not in 2012.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 7:25 PM | Comments (0)

In-Debted MLB Owners Welcome Back Bud

And debt is the key word here, as MLB team owners handed current MLB Commissioner Bud Selig an extension to his present contract by adding another two years.

Bud Selig had hoped to ride off into the sunset after the completion of this coming 2012 baseball season, when his most recent contract was to expire.

But as the bottom line is the top priority these days in MLB, and not necessarily its best interests, Selig will now retire after the 2014 MLB season instead.

Selig's self-proclaimed success in reaching another Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) with the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) this past December — and hailed as being done in record time — seemed to seal the deal for owners to ask Bud to stay on. The new CBA will now run through the end of the 2016 MLB season.

And it appears that Selig needed little arm-twisting in order to accept another two years by the owners. After all, an estimated annual salary, upwards of $25 million plus perks, is hardly anything to sneeze at.

Yes, it looks like Bud will indeed enjoy a lifetime appointment, not dissimilar to the likes of the justices of the U.S. Supreme Court, the Vatican's Pope, and almost by Happy Valley's Joe Paterno; for Bud will be 80-years-old when and if he officially retires in 2014.

This reporter this past December, penned a piece titled MLB's New HGH Test More Smoke and Mirrors. It examines the new CBA relative to the new drug testing policy in MLB.

Yet there are many other notable provisions of the 2011-2016 CBA, not the least of which concerns the revised Debt Service Rules, which largely and exclusively come under the purview of the commissioner.

The Debt Service Rules pertain to the amount of debt that MLB allows each MLB team to carry each year.

No less than nine MLB teams were non-compliant under such rules during the course of 2011. They include the: New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, and Florida Marlins.

During the last CBA, which ran from 2007-2011, each team was permitted to carry a debt ceiling up to 10 times the value of their team's profits for the preceding year; that is earnings before taxes, depreciation, interest, and amortization of the club; of course based upon which accountants are retained.

However, with the new CBA, clubs will only be allowed to carry a debt ceiling eight times that amount. But since 2002, when the rule was originated, it has become rather deceptive as to how it is enforced and to whom it applies; as it is at the sole discretion of the commissioner.

Therefore, is it any wonder why little daylight has been seen concerning compliance of this rule? After all, it remains under the thumb of one Bud Selig.

Most notably, Selig has thus far only forced Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt — of these teams in non-compliance — to sell his team, in spite of his efforts to keep his team afloat over the past year.

Although there have been other bankruptcies and sales of other teams that Selig has interfered with, such as the Texas Rangers' bankruptcy and sale in 2009 and 2010, the Houston Astros' sale in 2011, and the Montreal Expos, which became the Washington Nationals and sold prior to 2005, none has come under quite the scrutiny of Selig as has Frank McCourt.

This latest stunt of Selig's took McCourt's club out from under him and without allowing him a self-help remedy or the option to work it out with MLB.

In contrast, New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon, Selig's close and personal friend of 30 years, is in debt to the tune of $1.5 billion, which includes Citi Field debt and his Sports New York TV network, which broadcasts Mets games.

It was during the MLB playoffs in October, 2011, which serves as a reminder as to Selig's preferential treatment of Fred Wilpon. He stated at the time that, "I don't have any concerns. I've talked to Fred a lot about it, and they seem to be making good progress."

Bud Selig should employ more judiciousness in enforcement of rules he himself crafted. And he seems to arbitrarily and with wide latitude interpret them.

When Frank McCourt applied for a private $30 million loan in the spring of 2011, in order to meet Dodgers payroll expenses, which was enough for Selig to start the process to force McCourt out. Now the Dodgers are in bankruptcy, as so ordered by the federal bankruptcy court, to auction off the team by April 30, 2012. The winning bid still must be approved by Selig and the owners of MLB.

Fred Wilpon and partner Saul Katz are being sued for a now adjusted $386 million by Bernie Madoff trustee Irving Picard, and such will go to trial in New York City on March 19, 2012. The basis of the lawsuit, for the benefit of victim investors of Madoff's, contends that that Wilpon and company knowingly indulged in Madoff's Ponzi scheme while receiving their own profits from him.

Wilpon maintains the he and his partner never made off themselves with the $300-500 million from Bernie's misdeeds. Rather, they fancy themselves merely as legitimate beneficiaries of Madoff's keen investment skills.

Even if that proves true, there is no record that Wilpon reinvested such earnings back into team payroll or team operations, having used Mets proceeds to invest with Madoff, while financing a stadium with public monies.

And whether or not Wilpon will ever have a competitive National League East team again, or in the near future, remains in question. To wit, the Mets have cut payroll by $50 million since 2011 and claim they have lost $70 million in team revenue for the 2011 season. And being able to field a competitive MLB team is the main intent of the Debt Service Rules.

But as long as one remains a Friend of Bud's (FOB), one need not fear. And one's fate is sealed should the opposite prevail.

Fred Wilpon's money woes read like a laundry list of creditors and should qualify for an over-take by MLB, according to its own rules. For example, Standard & Poor's just reduced the bond rating for the outstanding bonds used for Citi Field; the primary source of its construction financing.

These were tax-free bonds floated by New York City's Mayor Michael Bloomberg, in concert with the federal government.

In order to cover Mets present expenses, Wilpon has chosen to sell at least $200 million of Mets ownership shares which he plans to sell as a block to 10 minority owners. Since little was incentivized in these offerings, it has been difficult realizing such sales.

Fred Wilpon also secured a $40 million bridge loan in December 2011 with Bank of America in order to pay off a $25 million debt on stadium and offseason expenses from 2011. And the $25 million the Mets borrowed from MLB and due by the end of 2011 has yet to be repaid. However, Bud Selig has not required a repayment due date in writing to Wilpon.

Also of note, is that any loan made by MLB to any club, may not to be used for existing debt, but rather for future investment to enhance the club going forward. Yet, in true Wilpon fashion, he has skirted this issue and Selig is perhaps caught with another one of his rules he chooses not to observe.

In late December 2011, Wilpon and Katz also retained bankruptcy services firm CRG Partners, primarily known for their reorganization services for firms considering bankruptcy. Again, Wilpon denied that bankruptcy was ever a part of his thinking.

There may be more parity amongst MLB teams these days regarding on-field competition according to Selig, but hardly is there any objectivity as concerns the commissioner of MLB and its 30 owners; for MLB is run as if it is a national bank or holding company rather than a body used to field competitive baseball teams.

Perhaps it is not too off-base to believe MLB is headed toward a Wall Street meltdown of its own; or at least an administrative one.

And Bud Selig might want to check with Mets and Dodgers fans about just that. For it is fans, which too often MLB and its owners take for granted, that remain the straw that stirs the drink; and without them MLB ceases to exist.

And finally, similarly to the banking industry, mortgage industry, or various hedge funds, MLB has now become an over-leveraged conglomerate. But it continues to ride that slippery slope of a wave which could eventually come crashing down; not unlike Bernie Madoff has.

Too big to fail? Yes, if you are Frank McCourt and no, if you are Fred Wilpon.

But ultimately, during this now over four-year recession, we have learned that no one individual or corporate entity is exempt from engaging in responsible management; not even the commissioner of MLB.

It is just a matter of how long Bud Selig can ride this wave; in spite his spanking new contract.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 6:36 PM | Comments (0)

January 18, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Conf. Championships

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Baltimore @ New England (-6½)

The AFC's top two seeds advanced to the conference finals, where the Patriots will host the Ravens in the first title game in New England since 2008. The Patriots whipped the Broncos, 45-10, as Tom Brady threw for 6 touchdowns.

"I only had three fewer touchdowns," Brady said, "than Tim Tebow had completions. That's sad, but not the saddest part. That would be having fewer completions than commandments you follow. I also had a 48-yard punt against the Broncos. I'm not sure what surprised me more — the fact that I was punting, or the fact that we were punting.

"But I expect Tebow to come back strong next year. I've seen flashes of brilliance. Not from Tebow, mind you, but when my supermodel wife is in a teasing mood. Tebow's shown flashes of resilience. His commitment to abstinence puts him the same category as me — we're both 'pure' passers.

"As for the Ravens, I'm sure my ongoing feud with Terrell Suggs will flare up. Suggs claims he attended 'Ball So Hard University.' I think Mark Sanchez matriculated there, as well — he majored in minors. Suggs, on the other hand, never graduated. He, much like the Ravens and their quest to reach a Super Bowl, 'left early.'"

The Ravens forced four turnovers, including three T.J. Yates interceptions, in a 20-13 win over Houston. The last time the Ravens met the Patriots in Foxboro in the playoffs, Baltimore dominated in a 33-14 win.

"We feel we're on equal ground with New England," John Harbaugh said. "No offense to Lisa Olson, but if there's talk of 'Patriot Missiles,' then there should be proportionate time devoted to 'Ravens Peckers.'

"By no means do we expect the Patriots to lay down like they did in 2009. On that day, we instituted our own 'Tuck Rule:' after taking a 24-0 first quarter lead, we said 'night-night' and 'tucked' the Pats in for good."

To win, Joe Flacco must outplay Brady. That's really got nothing to do with Flacco; it's got everything to do with the Ravens defense. Flacco won't outgun Brady if the game is a shootout. Baltimore has to hurry Brady's decision-making process, and that's a tall order, because Brady doesn't need a lot of time to determine that his best option is the eight-yard pass. And they need to hit him. Hard. And often. And illegally, if need be. Of course, as Suggs knows, it takes very little, sometimes nothing, to get flagged for roughing Brady. If the Ravens can knock a few of Brady's hairs out of place, they have a chance.

In the end, Brady is too much, and has too many options. The Ravens mount a late charge, but a Flacco fumble seals their fate.

New England wins, 33-27.

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-2)

San Francisco outgunned New Orleans 36-32 in a classic, winning on Alex Smith's 14-yard touchdown pass to Vernon Davis with nine seconds left. The No. 2-seeded 49ers will host the NFC title game, thanks to the Giants 37-20 upset of the top-seeded Packers.

"Davis had a 'wail' of a game," Jim Harbaugh said. "The Saints' Malcolm Jenkins and Roman Harper may not have left their hearts here, but Vernon certainly left their tails in San Francisco. Indeed, their play was so awful, it made a grown man cry. If 180 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns is the kind of game that makes Vernon cry, then by all means Vernon, 'play misty for me.'

"My team was ruthless, while the Saints were 'roofless.' And New Orleans will remain 'outside' for the remainder of the playoffs. Now, the Giants don't play indoors. They play in something much more confining — a fish bowl. Candlestick Park can be a challenging place to play for a visiting team, but the Giants have seen much more hostile environments, such as New York City on December 4th in the midst of a four-game losing streak."

The Giants playoff streak is reminiscent of their 2007 run to the Super Bowl title, when they won three games on the road, including a win at Green Bay in the NFC championship game. This year's G-Men have looked even more dominant.

"History says the Packers are still the defending champs," Eli Manning said. "Our 37 points scored on Sunday says they're not defending anything. We made the Packers look bad, and the Falcons look not as bad. We knew the Green Bay defense could be had. They may play on 'frozen tundra,' but their defense is more like frozen yogurt: it's soft, and melts under heat, and is often licked. It's always a good sign when you have two receivers open on a Hail Mary pass.

"The 49ers got the better of us in November. I predict they'll get the better of us on Sunday, because we are better. And don't tell me that a long, cross-country flight will leave us fatigued. You can't blame everything that's wrong in New York on the 'Jets.'"

New York's Antrel Rolle has said that the only way the Giants can lose is if they beat themselves. Well, the only way they can win is if they beat the 49ers. Obviously, they can't do both. They'll do the latter. The Giants wide receiver corps gives them a huge edge, as they can attack down the field with multiple weapons. The Giants will commit to stopping Vernon Davis, and take their chances with Michael Crabtree and Kyle Williams. And Manning will make all the right throws.

Lawrence Tynes kicks the game-winning 41-yard field goal, and the Giants hold on for a 27-24 win.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:01 PM | Comments (3)

Murray's Road to Grand Slam Glory

Okay, so Andy Murray hasn't won a slam quite yet, but as top players, retired legends, and the world's top coaches resolutely insist, it is only a matter of time. With Ivan Lendl taking the helm as the captain of Murray's entourage, and with instant improvements, surely a grand slam title is on its way. It's been delayed in the post for quite a while, and Murray just needs to collect it from the sorting office.

So why not look back at Murray's long list of coaches: the people who have shaped him into the player he is today?

Judy Murray

Andy's mum, Judy, was the national coach in Scotland when Andy was very young, and so she was the one to teach him the basics and made him an exceptional youngster. She's still present at all his big matches to this day, cheering from the player's box. Perhaps her biggest contribution to Murray's career is flying from Scotland to Madrid at a moment's notice to bring him his trainers for the final of the Madrid Open, when his split and he couldn't find a replacement pair in time. He went on to beat Gilles Simon in the final.

Leon Smith

Leon Smith, current captain of the Great Britain Davis Cup Team, was Andy's first official coach. They toured around, going to all the junior tournaments in the country, and although there was a bit of an age gap, became best friends. He coached Andy from age 11 to age 17. He also coached Murray for a brief period in 2006 when Murray was between coaches.

Mark Petchey

Petchey was the man who took Murray from Junior tennis to Senior tennis. He only coached Murray for two years, but he took Murray from relative anonymity to a top-100 player. He was also the coach who brought Andy his first taste of grand slam glory, as he took him to the junior U.S. Open final and watched as the 17-year-old dispatched of Sergei Stakhovsky to take the title. Petchey also coached Murray to his first ATP final, where he lost to then-No. 1 Roger Federer. When Murray and Petchey first met, they were playing in a tournament. The 15-year-old Murray beat Petchey, 6-0, 6-0.

Brad Gilbert

Gilbert was the first non-British coach to take on Murray as a protégé. He took Murray to his first title, at the SAP Open in San Jose, California. Murray and Gilbert did not have a good working relationship and frequently had fallings out with one another. Nevertheless, Gilbert helped Murray to No. 11 in the world, and two more titles in the year or so they worked together.

Miles Maclagan

Miles Maclagan took over from Brad Gilbert on November 30, 2007, bringing with him a team of experts: physiotherapist Andy Ireland and two strength and conditioning coaches, Matt Little and Jeremy "Jez" Green. The four became "Team Murray," and took Andy to his career high ranking of No. 2 in the world, and, under Miles Maclagan, reached two grand slam finals, at the 2008 U.S. Open and the 2010 Australian Open.

Alex Corretja

The former world No. 2 and twice French Open runner-up — Alex Corretja — joined Team Murray in 2008 for the clay season, where he provided a much needed boost to Murray's clay game. He left after the French Open, and then resumed his role as clay-court consultant to Miles Maclagan the following year, where Murray went on to reach the French Open quarterfinals for the first time. He joined the team full-time after that and was kept on after Maclagan's departure in late 2010. Corretja helped Murray reach a third grand slam final at the Australian Open, where he was beaten by Novak Djokovic in straight sets, just as the Serbian hit his hot streak. Murray and Corretja departed ways on good terms in early 2011.

Daniel Vallverdu

Venezuelan tennis pro "Dani" Vallverdu joined Team Murray originally as a hitting partner in 2010. On no official date, he slowly became more of a coach to Murray, and when Corretja left, Vallverdu was kept on. He helped Murray to some blinding form in the clay court season, where he reached the semifinals in Monte Carlo, Rome, and at Rolland Garros. The most impressive of these was in Monte Carlo, where he took a set from reigning champion Nadal whilst nursing an injured elbow.

Darren Cahill

It would be easy to forget Darren Cahill as a Murray coach, primarily because he was never one of Team Murray. Working as an Adidas coach, Cahill could never coach Murray full-time, but assisted when and where he could, which was usually towards the end of tournaments, when most of the other Adidas players had been knocked out. Another major problem was that if Murray played another Adidas player, Cahill was not allowed to give direction or advice, as it would be a conflict of interests. Murray did well without having a full-time coach, and won four tournaments out of five, taking two Masters 1000 titles in the process, and compiling an impressive win-loss record towards the end of the season.

Ivan Lendl

Murray announced on January 1, 2012 that he had hired Ivan Lendl as his new coach. Parallels between the pair are significant. They both have a very defensive, counter-punching baseline game, and both experienced numerous losses in grand slam finals. Lendl has already helped Murray towards a first title of the year at the Brisbane International in Australia, and Murray will be hoping to improve on this good form, and go one step further than he did last year at the Australian Open and finally take home the title.

If anyone can take Murray to grand slam glory, it's Ivan Lendl. And he believes Murray can overcome the odds to win as many as he did, too.

Posted by Angus Saul at 10:45 AM | Comments (1)

January 17, 2012

Hold on a SEC

It seems like next year is set up perfectly to give the SEC its seventh straight championship — three of the teams (Alabama, Arkansas, and LSU) likely to make the preseason top five will come from the same division within the SEC. While all three teams find themselves there right now, and the fact that they had to face each other didn't hurt them this year, it likely will next year.

To begin with, the SEC looks like it will be better top-to-bottom next year, with teams like Auburn and Florida likely to bounce back into a position of consistent top-25 caliber play. So the likelihood of two or more teams making it to the end of the marathon that is the SEC conference schedule with less than two losses on the season is extremely low. I actually wouldn't be surprised if the winner of the SEC West went 11-2 next year, a mark which earned Arkansas third place in the same division this year.

With that in mind, begin to consider some teams like USC, Oklahoma State, Oregon, and many others that are good and getting better, and all of whom face a considerably easier path to a one or two loss season. All of them also play in BCS conferences, meaning a one-loss year would likely put them in the championship game over a two-loss SEC school.

Now the BCS waters are even more muddied than usual, especially considering the fact that there have been some doubts raised publicly by former or event current BCS proponents about if the current method is the best one. So we get to the third and final reason for an easier path than ever to the championship game for a non-SEC school.

The final reason is that with all the doubts currently floating around about the BCS and its method of determining a champion, the powers-that-be might feel pressure to put in a non-SEC school in, as an attempt to stem the tide of the overwhelming sentiment that the BCS unfairly tips the scales in favor of SEC schools. At the end of the day, it won't matter whether or not the voters think the schools outside the BCS are better — because if they're going to make money off of the current system in the long run, they'll do everything they can to preserve it.

Even the casual viewer could notice that this year, more than any year in quite some time, there were many teams from other BCS conferences that probably could have at least given the national champion (Alabama) more of a game than the SEC runner-up (LSU) did in the national championship. The college football playoff proponents have more ammo for their argument now than they ever have, and if they make enough noise in the coming weeks, change just might be on the horizon.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 11:21 AM | Comments (0)

January 16, 2012

NFL 2011 Divisonal Weekend

Five Quick Hits

* There are four head coaches still in the playoffs, and two of them are Harbaughs. Good year for that family.

* The Raiders are about to hire their eighth head coach in the last 10 seasons. I thought Tom Cable and Hue Jackson both did a pretty good job. But why keep a coach who's made progress when you can start over?

* No one play made the difference in the Giants/Packers game, but what a pathetic excuse for a tackle by Charlie Peprah on the first touchdown. If he wraps up, that play is dead on the 47-yard line.

* There's a poll on NFL.com, with almost 10,000 votes, asking who fans want to see in the Super Bowl. Most have chosen the 49ers (58%) and Patriots (54%), but the most popular matchup is Niners/Ravens (35%). Apparently if the Patriots win, fans want them to face the Giants (31%). Niners/Pats came in a distant third (23%).

* During Saturday's broadcast, FOX repeatedly pointed out that such-and-such was a "Saints postseason record." You know why they kept setting all those records? Because the Saints only have 14 playoff games in their history. It's the equivalent of a season-high. Before the season's even over. Weak.

***

Saturday night, during the Patriots/Broncos massacre, right after the 49ers forced five turnovers and advanced to the NFC title game, Phil Simms really said this, on a national television broadcast: "Only a couple of defenses in the whole league have stood out at times: the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens." Houston had a pretty great year on defense, including more turnovers and fewer yards allowed than Baltimore, but the glaring omission here is the 49ers.

Even if you forget their performance just hours earlier against a record-setting offense, the Niners allowed far fewer points this season (229) than the Ravens (266), with almost 50% more takeaways (38-26). According to Pro-Football-Reference.com's Simple Rating System, the 49ers had the best defense in the NFL this season, with the Steelers second and Baltimore a distant third. To name two teams as having great defense, and neither one is the Niners, is ridiculous.

Divisional Roundups

49ers 36, Saints 32

Well, that was exciting.

After the Saints committed three first quarter turnovers and the 49ers took an early 17-0 lead, it was New Orleans vs. the clock, as fans watched to see how long San Francisco could hold on. This culminated in a thrilling finale, with the teams scoring a total of four touchdowns in the final 4:02, each one changing the lead and looking like it might be the game-winner.

It's hard to overstate the impact of the turnovers — playoff teams who go +4 in turnover differential are now 72-1 — but this game wasn't just about four or five possession-changing plays. The Saints converted a league-high 57% of their third downs during the regular season, and 70% against Detroit. They went just 5/14 (36%) against San Francisco.

New Orleans went the whole game against the Lions without punting. Thomas Morstead punted in every quarter against the Niners, five times total. Against Detroit, the Saints rushed for 167 yards, including three players over 40. Quarterback Alex Smith had more rushing yards on Saturday than any Saint, actually out-gained Darren Sproles and leading rusher Chris Ivory combined. San Francisco's coverage team also did a nice job limiting Sproles and Courtney Roby on kick returns.

It surprises no one that Drew Brees had a big game (462 yards, 4 TDs), but he also threw a couple of picks, and honestly, if you air it out 63 times, you'd damn well better throw for 400 yards. The hero of this game, if New Orleans had won, was Marques Colston (9 rec, 136 yds, TD). Since the 49ers came back, let's anoint Vernon Davis (180 yds, 2 TDs) and Justin Smith (5 hits on Brees). Alex Smith also silenced a few more critics with a performance that won't draw comparisons to Steve Young, but showed admirable grit, leadership, and calm under pressure. Also, major props to the Niners coaching staff for the play-call that led to Smith's 28-yard touchdown run. Superb call.

Patriots 45, Broncos 10

This one was over by halftime. They led 14-0, then 35-7 after two quarters, eventually 42-7 before they called off the dogs. New England dominated on both offense and defense. When Tom Brady threw his 6th passing touchdown, Tim Tebow had 3 pass completions. At one point in the fourth quarter, Tebow had 6 completions and 5 sacks. The game was a massacre, a total mismatch.

Give the Broncos credit for punching above their weight, but the dream is over. In the NFL, anything new (or very, very old) tends to be successful at first. When Denver installed Tebow at quarterback, opponents weren't sure how to defend such an unusual offense. But after a couple of weeks, the tape was out there, and defenses recognized how to shut that offense down. A quirk of scheduling — the 3-13 Vikings and the awful Caleb Hanie-led Bears — created the illusion that the magic was still there, and Denver brought its A-game for last week's win over the lifeless Steelers, but the secret is out. There's a good reason that no NFL team in half a century has used this as its base offense. In today's NFL, you need a quarterback who can be a consistent, decisive, and accurate passer.

Maybe Tebow will fit that description one day. He doesn't yet, and the Broncos are in an awkward bind. The football people who run the operation know they need other options, at the least, but the fans will riot if Tebow doesn't start on opening day. Either he needs to re-tool his game and improve dramatically in the next seven months, or the Broncos could be in for a very rough year. A never-say-die attitude is commendable, but it will only take you so far.

Ravens 20, Texans 13

In the history of the Baltimore Ravens franchise, the team has only allowed a 100-yard rusher 40 times. The only players to do it more than once: Jerome Bettis, Corey Dillon, Cedric Benson, Eddie George, Peyton Hillis, Fred Taylor, current Raven Ricky Williams, and now Arian Foster. Sunday's game was not a thrilling one, even for fans who appreciate good defense, but it featured probably the two best running backs in the NFL.

Foster was brilliant, carrying 27 times for 132 yards (4.9 avg) and a touchdown, with 5 receptions, including a sensational one-handed grab on Houston's lone touchdown drive. Ray Rice didn't post big numbers (60 rush yds, 20 rec yds), but his ability to find the tiniest hole in a defense is unparalleled, and he's so dangerous that he opens up opportunities for the rest of his team. Foster is the only player ever to rush for 100 yards in a playoff game against the Ravens (out of 16 games). The previous high was George, who rushed for 91 in a loss during Baltimore's Super Bowl season 11 years ago.

The magnificence of the running backs notwithstanding, this game was about defense. The only game of the weekend not to feature a marquee quarterback, the game lived up to its billing. Joe Flacco completed barely half his passes (14/27) and was sacked a career-high 5 times. T.J. Yates completed under half his passes (17/35) and tossed 3 critical interceptions.

Dan Dierdorf mostly did a pretty nice job announcing the game for CBS, but he made a ridiculous proclamation after the third pick: "T.J. Yates played pretty darn well today." That's absurd. Yates' passer rating was 28.8, and Dierdorf said this when Baltimore had just clinched the game. Houston's offensive line played very well, opening lanes for Foster and protecting Yates, who was only hit twice, and never sacked. Foster was superb. The defense played at a high level. The Texans lost mostly because Yates did not play well. He's a rookie, and his decision-making just wasn't up to pro standards on Sunday. Let's also throw some credit at the Ravens' criminally underrated cornerback Lardarius Webb, who collected two of the three interceptions and broke up two other passes.

Giants 37, Packers 20

"This offense in no way has resembled what we came to appreciate during the regular season." - Joe Buck

"It seemed like all day long, Green Bay just wasn't the same team that dominated in the regular season." - Curt Menefee

"This is not the same Green Bay team that we saw during the regular season. They had so many missed opportunities." - Jimmy Johnson

The Giants played well on Sunday, and that shouldn't surprise anyone, but the story of this game was how out of synch the Packers looked, especially on offense. They were charged with 8 dropped passes and lost 3 fumbles, while Aaron Rodgers missed on several passes to open receivers. Green Bay tied a season low with only 2 touchdowns and committed a season-high 4 turnovers.

Of course, the Packers hadn't played a meaningful game in three weeks, and Rodgers looked more comfortable running the ball (6 first downs) than passing it, seemed to have no connection with anyone except Donald Driver. Clearly the Giants deserve some credit for that, but the rust was obvious. Over the past decade, the Colts repeatedly underachieved in the postseason after giving the players too much time off, and this year, Green Bay got derailed by the same problem.

I believe the best Colts' team of the Peyton Manning era was the 2005 squad that started 13-0 and never seemed to recover from the death of James Dungy, the son of head coach Tony Dungy. The Packers played Sunday's game following the death of offensive coordinator Joe Philbin's son. I don't know if the team was distracted, or grieving, or unaffected, but I'd find the first two more plausible than the third.

More than off-the-field distractions, though, I blame the lack of on-field rhythm and intensity the team built up during the regular season. Are coaches burned more often by being too risky or too conservative? To me, that's a no-brainer. They are burned far more often by being too conservative, and the Packers' decision to rest healthy players like Rodgers in Week 17 looks like a disaster now. Then again, if you mix in the right kind of "too risky" — two onside kicks, really? — that can bite you, too.

The score of this game could have been even uglier, since both Green Bay touchdowns were set up by questionable officiating calls, first a surprising replay challenge ruling, then a phantom roughness call on Osi Umenyiora. That said, what does Eli Manning have to do to get called for intentional grounding? I thought he should have been flagged twice.

Championship Weekend Forecast

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

For most of the season, this has looked like a matchup we might anticipate in the AFC Championship Game. Maybe not if Matt Schaub had stayed healthy, I guess. But this is an intriguing game, a classic offense vs. defense matchup. In the postseason, the great defense has traditionally had an edge, but I don't know if that will be the case this time. Even more than offense/defense, this game is about home/road.

Since 2008, when John Harbaugh became Baltimore's head coach, best regular-season record at home:

1. Patriots, 28-4
2. Ravens, 27-5
3. Falcons, 26-6

Conversely, the Ravens are just 17-15 on the road. This season fits that pattern: the Patriots went 7-1 at home, and the Ravens were 4-4 on the road. If you have a .500 team traveling to New England in January to face the best home team in the NFL, who do you bet on? I'm taking the Pats.

The Ravens can win this with great defense, especially interior pass rush pressure, and big plays on offense. But I don't think Baltimore can contain New England's tight ends. Even if Aaron Hernandez is banged up, Rob Gronkowski is capable of eating any defense alive, and the Patriots present so many weapons. I also don't believe Baltimore can take advantage of New England's defensive vulnerabilities in a hostile environment. The Patriots advance with a close but comfortable 7-point victory.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

This is my 10th season picking postseason games for Sports Central. Over that time, I'm 64-43 (.598), but I've gone on serious cold streaks. In 2007, I picked against the Giants every round (0-4). In '08, I took the Cardinals to lose every game except the Super Bowl (0-4). I haven't done a great job recently picking Falcons games (0-3 since they got good again), and I was terrified of what would happen last year when I predicted, for the third week in a row, that the Jets would lose (1-2, thankfully). This year, I'm off to a bad start with the Giants (0-2).

The point is, my prediction for this game may not be the most trustworthy. Even if I'm leaning in the right direction, I'm so psyched out right now I could easily talk myself out of a correct pick. I'm terrified that if I call it for San Francisco, the Giants will win the Super Bowl again. I'm also worried I'll predict a Giants victory just because I don't want to risk getting swept again. Like I said, totally psyched out.

The Giants are rolling. They're experienced, they're confident, and they're playing their best football of the season. The Niners just won a huge game. They're playing at home, they were better during the regular season, and they won the first time these teams met (27-20, Week 10 in San Francisco). The 49er defense won't repeatedly give up big plays like the Packers did, and they probably won't lose the turnover battle. But they probably can't match points with the Giants, who have an explosive offense, unless they win the turnover battle by a lot. There are compelling arguments on both sides.

I'm tempted to flip a coin. Instead, I'll go with the home team. Niners by a field goal.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:43 PM | Comments (0)

January 14, 2012

Teams Revealing Who They Really Are

"You are what your record says you are."

That's a quote from former NFL coach Bill Parcells some years back in response to a question about whether his team was really better than its record indicates. The basic point — it doesn't matter how "good" you are. It only matters whether you won or lost when you played the game.

In college basketball, things aren't so simple. Actually, records can be quite deceiving. Not only is there a much wider disparity in who those records are built against (strength of schedule), but "talent" seems to be far less consistent in college hoops. Sometimes a team can look unbeatable. Other times it can look like straight dog poop. With some teams, you just never know.

One thing that does seem to be a great equalizer, though, is team efficiency.

For the uninitiated, efficiency is basically a tempo-neutral measurement of how a team performs on a per-possession basis. There are plenty of stat nerds on the internet who can explain it better than I can, so look it up if you need more information. My interest isn't so much the process of finding the stat, but rather how to use the stat for my own personal well-being, in this case my NCAA tournament bracket.

(What? NCAA tournament bracket? But we barely just began our two month bitch-fest about bubbles and seeding. How can we even think about the bracket?)

(Because you can use the efficiency ratings to figure out which teams to watch. It still comes down to watching the games and figuring out matchups. The stats just help you figure out where to look).

Now that we've got that settled, now for some proof that this stuff actually matters:

* In the five years I've been tracking this, no NCAA tournament team with an efficiency split over 30 or more has lost in the first round. (Efficiency split is a team's offensive efficiency minus its defensive efficiency.)

* Of the 26 teams who have entered the tournament over the past five years with an efficiency split of 30 or higher, 22 have made at least the Sweet 16, 17 have made at least the Elite Eight, 11 have made the Final Four, and four have won the title (with two others losing in the title game).

* On the flip side, of the 78 teams that have come into the tournament over the past five years with an efficiency split under 10, 71 of them lost their first game and only one has made it out of the second round. That was VCU, which somehow found its way into the Final Four with an 8.8 split. The next lowest to make it out of the first weekend was last year's Butler team that made it to the championship game with a split of 15.

(I'm considering last year an aberration. We'll see if this year repeats or not.)

So anyway, I hope those few facts convince you of the power of the efficiency split. (Note: It's actually adjusted efficiency from KenPom.com.) Now it's time to see which of this year's teams fall into which bucket.

* As of games played on Tuesday, only four teams are at the 30+ level: Ohio State (34.37), Syracuse (32.34), Kentucky (31.16), and Wisconsin (30.48).

I'd say that makes the Buckeyes, Orange, and Wildcats pretty good bets for an Elite Eight run or better, but you can't trust Wisconsin no matter what the stats say. Twice in the past five tournaments the Badgers have gone into the tournament with a 30+ efficiency split. Two other times they were over 25. They have yet to make it out of the Sweet 16, and didn't even get there twice. Until Bo Ryan shows his style can actually get the job done in the Tourney setting, I'm viewing their potential with a heavy dose of skepticism.

* I said you can't trust Wisconsin. Same goes with Georgetown. In 2007, their efficiency split was 35+ and they made the Final Four. In 2008, it was 30+ and they lost in the second round. The past two years, it was 25+ and 18+ and they got bounced in round 1. This year the 11th-ranked Hoyas are at just past 21. So even if they end up a 3- or 4-seed, beware of some serious upset potential.

* Baylor is on course for a possible one seed, but their 23.83 efficiency split would be by far the lowest of any top seed in the past five years. In fact, only one two seed has had a lower split, and that was the 2010 Villanova team that got upset in the second round.

Working in Baylor's favor perhaps is last year's championship Connecticut team had a 22.85 split as a three seed. I'm not sure Baylor has anybody approaching Kemba Walker and his ability to take over a game, though. (Actually, I'm sure they don't. Nobody does.)

* I mentioned Kentucky as a good bet. I know they've had a few spots of inconsistency this year, but not only do they have the second-highest split in the country, John Calipari has never failed to make the Elite Eight as a one seed (four tries, two Final Fours, and one gut-wrenching loss in the 2008 title game).

(It also pays to watch coach trends. You can trust in Sean Miller to get more out of his teams. You can trust Kevin Stallings to get less.)

* Speaking of the 2008 title game, the team that beat Calipari's Memphis squad that year was Bill Self's Kansas Jayhawks, who have failed to make it past the Sweet 16 their last three trips as a non-one seed. So while Self's team is sitting with a very respectable 29.88 split, they have "underachievers" stamped all over their tournament future.

* Beware the team with a middling seed (4-6) but a high efficiency split (25+). Of the 21 teams meeting that criteria over the past five years, one made it to the Final Four (last year's Kentucky team — told you it was a weird year). Of the other 20 teams, five made the Sweet 16, 12 lost in the second round and five fell to first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.

That's 17 of 21 failing to make it out of the first weekend, so watch out Florida (25.32), Gonzaga (22.48), and Alabama (22.34).

* Of the 100 teams to enter the tournament with a sub-15 split over the past five years, only VCU last year made it to the Sweet 16. Teams who should be concerned about that: Stanford (15.80), Louisville (15.55), Illinois (15.43), Dayton (14.13), Harvard (13.97), Mississippi State (13.27), San Diego State (10.55), and Arkansas (10.09).

So when you see somebody pumping up Harvard or San Diego State as sleepers, remember they are going for the 1%. Personally, I'm going with the 99%. But maybe that's just because I like money. (Mitt Romney for President!)

So there you go. These are by no means final projections of what will happen in two-plus months. Players will get better or worse, healthy or injured, quit or otherwise somehow change the fortunes of their teams. What we see now in the first few days of conference play is not what we will necessarily see come championship Week.

But if you're looking for a place to start scouting, you could do a lot worse than following the map efficiency ratings provide.

(Just kidding about the Romney thing.)

(I think.)

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 10:56 AM | Comments (0)

January 13, 2012

Sports Q&A: NFL Postseason Edition

Who fired Raiders coach Hue Jackson, general manager Reggie McKenzie, or Oakland owner Mark Davis?

Neither. It was probably the medium who conducted the séance that summoned the spirit of Al Davis, who, even from the grave, is still making rash and questionable decisions that negates any continuity the Raiders had established. And speaking of questionable decisions, have you seen Mark Davis' hairdo? Straight out of Dumb and Dumber.

By the way, what did Tom Cable say when he heard of Jackson's firing? "Hue, too?"

Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III declared for the NFL draft. What team is his most likely destination?

Early indications have Griffin going to the Browns, a scenario that, if it does happen, will likely have RG3 asking, "I thought I was going pro."

An inadvertent whistle cost the Detroit Lions a defensive touchdown and a 21-7 lead on the Saints in a game they eventually lost 45-28. Should the NFL address the issue of an official's whistle making a play non-reviewable?

Suffice it to say the Lions want the situation addressed. And Jim Schwartz certainly won't be happy if all he gets out of it is a friendly pat on the back.

What do you say when an official whistles prematurely? He blows. Since a premature whistle makes a play non-reviewable, the NFL needs to retrain officials on the art of non-hasty whistle-blowing. In other words, if it looks like a play that could affect the outcome of the game and you're not sure what to do, don't blow your whistle, and let replay sort it out. Not that replay is always right, but replay is right more often than officials.

Some New York Jets players anonymously ripped Mark Sanchez in a New York Daily News article, calling the young quarterback "lazy" and questioning his commitment. Is this the beginning of the end for Sanchez as a Jet?

No, the beginning of the end for Sanchez as a Jet was when the first hint of a rumor that Peyton Manning could become a Jet started. Sanchez isn't lazy, except when it comes to dating women his own age or older.

Brian Schottenheimer is out as the Jets offensive coordinator, replaced by former Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano. Can Sparano add some punch to the New York offense?

Sparano should find coordinating the Jets offense to his liking. What more could he ask for? He's in New Jersey, and he's managing "garbage." It's a made-for-television situation.

As for Schottenheimer, he received condolences via phone from his father. It was a "Martycall."

Mike Mularkey was hired as head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, becoming the first head coach under new owner Shahid Khan. Is Mularkey the right man for the job in Jacksonville?

Obviously, Khan knows coaches about as well as he knows fans. Khan hired Mularkey, who was the Falcons offensive coordinator, and Mularkey, in turn, hired Bob Bratkowski, his quarterbacks coach in Atlanta. Mularkey's and Bratkowski's first order of business was paring down the "quarterback sneaks" section of their play book from ten pages to zero.

Former "American Idol" Kelly Clarkson will sing the national anthem before the Super Bowl in Indianapolis on February 5th. Excited?

Call me unpatriotic, but I can't have a hand over my heart when I've got two over my ears. Clarkson's built more like a strong safety than a songstress. Looks like it's time for the Colts to pump in some more fake crowd noise.

What does the future hold for Tim Tebow?

I don't know, but he's got an eternity to find out.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:16 PM | Comments (0)

January 12, 2012

Can Lob City Overtake Showtime?

Sometimes it's easy to forget that the Staples Center is the home to two NBA franchises.

On the nights the purple and gold are out of town, the allure of their red-and-blue-clad little brothers generally isn't enough to pack a junior-high gym.

All one needs to do once inside the arena is look upward to the rafters. Sixteen championship banners and seven retired numbers. None belong to the Clippers. Not even so much as a division title have they sniffed. Lakers fans can happily reminisce about Magic Johnson's skyhook to beat the Celtics or Kobe Bryant's 81-point game. Clippers fans, all 12 of them (and Frankie Muniz), are reduced to saying things like, "hey, remember that one time when we won a playoff series against an uninspired Denver team?"

Over the years, many have blamed owner Donald Sterling for preferring to profit with a mediocre or losing team. After all, it was alarming to see the same team swallow up so many No. 1 draft picks only to have them all seemingly disappear. To date, there have only been four years in which L.A.'s other team finished the season with a better record than Showtime. And frankly, even when that did happen, no one seemed to notice or care.

And yet this lockout-lengthened offseason may have just changed everything we know about the Clippers in relation to their more famous co-tenants. While sensational rookie Blake Griffin and his endless array of dunks made them a one-hit wonder last season, they still were far from a .500 team. In the span of one week in December, the Clippers had signed Caron Butler, Chauncey Billups, and mega-star point guard Chris Paul. Then Griffin, while at an outreach program, famously uttered the phrase that all NBA fans were already thinking "Yeah! It's going to be lob city!" Much like Vince Young's "dream team" quote (although hopefully with better results), this line created a new nickname and identity for the red-and-blue. The Lob City Clippers were born to rival the Showtime Lakers.

All this while said Lakers team lost their 11-time NBA champion head coach, lost their bid for stars Paul (unfairly) and Dwight Howard (for now), and traded away Lamar Odom during that same time frame.

Welcome to the Battle of Los Angeles.

You may have noticed yourself being entertained by the Clippers/Lakers preseason game on ESPN weeks ago. Now they meet in a game that counts, and even in spite of the NFL playoff games on Saturday, this very well could be the most eagerly anticipated Clippers/Lakers game ever. Of course by most, I mean first. The Lakers without Odom have still managed their regular success at 8-4, still atop the Pacific division. Kobe is jacking up more shots than ever, but this has not begun to hurt the team yet.

For now, the Clippers are a positive but modest 5-3, yet they have just come off a most impressive overtime win against the Miami Heat, proving they have the talent to compete with anyone. They have a man in Chris Paul who must still make the Lakers green with envy seeing as he would have been a Laker were it not for some good old commissioner tampering. Paul also knows what it is to compete mano-a-mano with Kobe and the Lakers in previous playoff series, just as he did eight months ago. They have a man in Billups who has won a Finals MVP, has no fear of clutch shots, and has one of the highest basketball IQs in the game.

While the Battle of L.A. will consume three regular season contests this year, we could be geared up for something special that we have never seen before: a Clippers/Lakers playoff series, you ask? Not only that, it could actually be evenly-matched and hard-fought without a heavy favorite and wildly entertaining throughout.

No, actually, something better than that. After 26 years in the making, we may finally have a legitimate basketball rivalry in L.A.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 2:54 PM | Comments (0)

Slant Pattern Mailbag

It's been awhile since I've done a mailbag, so I think it's time we do another one.

No, I don't get any mail for my column, unless praise such as "This is the greatest article on Sport Central/Slant Pattern/Week 1 preview I have ever seen! I can't wait to hear more about Sport Central/Slant Pattern/Week 1 preview! Sincerely, internetgoldandcouponsandcrazyvideos4you.com" counts. So instead, I poach the mailbags of other sports writers and answer those questions.

Let's start with a couple from Stewart Mandel's college football mailbag on the Sports Illustrated site. Thomas Coyne of Detroit writes:

"What changes do you realistically see being made to the BCS? A four-team playoff? Plus-one system? Automatic tie-ins eliminated?"

What I see occurring is a just, exciting 16-team playoff just like they do in 1-AA (actually, they have 20 playoff teams now, but let's not get greedy), people rightfully arguing over 4-loss teams left out of the playoffs instead of undefeated teams left out of the championship, and world peace.

I should clarify that that is what I foresee happening in the year 2050. In the meantime, there will be fighting and bitching over money, a "plus one" post-bowl National Championship Game, more fighting and bitching over money, a four-team playoff, more fighting and bitching over money, a six-team playoff, more fighting and bitching over money, an eight-team playoff, and more fighting and bitching over money, with a 12-team playoff. Baby steps.

Next is Steve in Wichita, Kansas:

"I keep hearing everyone say they'd like to see how Oklahoma State would have done against an LSU/Alabama defense. But haven't we seen this before? If the previous five SEC titles showed us anything, it's when these "elite" offenses from other conferences run into the defenses of their SEC counterpart, they are held well below their season average. Oklahoma State probably wouldn't have been shutout, but to say they'd score 30-plus is just asinine."

This argument is flawed on several levels. For one, at least an LSU/Oklahoma State game wouldn't have been a repeat of a regular season game, and now we have arguments that take away from Alabama, since they split the season series with LSU, but the Tide won their game at a neutral site (well, somewhat neutral), where LSU's win was a true road game. Then again, if these problems hasten the demise of the BCS as we know it, maybe I should be glad it happened.

But secondly, there are no guarantees in life and there are no guarantees LSU (or 'Bama) would've beaten Oklahoma State. They probably would, but every team is capable of a bad game and a team as good as Oklahoma State is capable of taking advantage of that.

Finally, nothing lasts forever. There is no question that the SEC is the strongest football conference in the land, and has been for several years in a row. But it won't always be that way. If you do feel like the SEC, based on recent history, is just gonna roll over any and all non-SEC opponent forevermore, why even have a National Championship Game? We'll just call the SEC championship the national championship.

Turning to John Clayton's column on ESPN, Thomas in Bar Harbor, Maine, writes:

"On what possible grounds can the NFL justify giving an 8-8 team such a huge advantage over a 12-4 team. First, a 7-9 Seattle team winning last year, and now Denver? The NFL really needs to look at this rule, don't you think?"

The problem with the implication here, which is that the teams with the better records should be the ones going to the playoffs, period, is that it makes divisions completely meaningless. If there's nothing at stake at all for winning the division, why even have divisions?

That said, I do think a couple of tweaks are in order. Let's make the minimum record for making the playoffs — I'm going to set the bar nice and low here — 8-8. If we have another debacle where a 7-9 team makes the playoffs by virtue of winning their division, then I think that's an extraordinary condition and in that case, a third wild card team should be let in instead.

And make the team with the better record the home team, period. I can agree that division winners should make the playoffs (except as outlined above), but that should be the end of their advantage. You're right — a 12-4 team should not have to go on the road to play an 8-8 team in the playoffs.

And now, over to USA Today's college basketball column. @jjbecker asks via twitter:

"What's wrong with Pitt?"

This question wins points not just for brevity, but for prescience. It was asked a week ago, and tonight the Panthers got shellacked at home by lowly Rutgers, 62-39.

Yes injuries have been a problem — a big problem — at Pitt, but the main problem is they can't shoot. This might be one of the worst shooting teams in modern college basketball history, or at least for the stretch they are in right now.

As the USA Today piece notes, they shot 16% from beyond the arc in their last five games going into this one. Tonight, their three-point percentage improved to 21%.

Too bad that was also their total field goal percentage for the game.

Finally, a tennis question. I've been following tennis a big more lately. Regular readers know I'm a sports glutton, and so I like the fact that many weeks have three or even four tournaments at the highest level. Daniel in Cleveland writes:

"I'm probably just a little crazy, but can you as a journalist (and seemingly good with the English language) tell me why when a tennis player retires in a match it is usually referred to as "forced to retire?" Forced? Really? Did someone come on court and physically stop them from playing? Retiring is a choice, not a compelled event. The player "decided" to retire. A recent article regarding Flavia Pennetta in Auckland said she was "forced to retire," as well as "forced" to take three medical timeouts. Who forced her to do that? Does using "forced" make it sound better? Sorry for the rant, it just really annoys me."

Tennis is, perhaps, the sport with the most idiosyncratic language. Love. Deuce. The fact that scoring goes 15/30/40. None of it makes much sense on a non-historical level.

"Retiring" belongs in that category, too. I remember, as a kid, reading tennis scores in the newspaper and seeing "retired" in a box score for the first time. "Whoa!" I thought. "He retired in the middle of a match?" Then I saw it more and more before I realized it meant "quitting the match" and not "getting my gold watch and leaving the sport."

What was your question? Oh yeah, "forced to retire." The answer to your question is, "I don't know."

That's why my mail comes in by the freight load.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:44 AM | Comments (1)

January 11, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Divisional

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

New Orleans @ San Francisco (+3½)

The Saints piled up 626 yards of total offense, including 466 passing from Drew Brees, in Saturday's 45-28 rout of the Lions. That earned New Orleans a visit to Candlestick Park, where the No. 2-seeded and well-rested 49ers await.

"There's only one thing that can stop our offense," Sean Payton said, "and that's the goal line. We're in more end zones than goal posts. The only thing that can slow us is an act of God, and since all of God's power is currently tied up in the Denver Broncos, I think we're safe. Who's more mighty? The potent one, Brees, leading our offense, or the omnipotent one, God, leading the Broncos? No offense to the Almighty, but Brees is the Saint of saints.

"To say our offense will be slowed by Candlestick's turf is absurd. It's apparently true what they say — grass does impair your judgment. We're not going to change anything in San Francisco, except our shoes."

The 49ers and likely coach of the year Jim Harbaugh will have to considerably slow the Saints offense to have any chance of advancing to the conference championship game. San Fran will also need to score more than the 24 points per game they averaged during the regular season.

"Compared to the New Orleans offense," Harbaugh said, "our offense is fairly rudimentary. Not only could Vince Young run this offense, he could coordinate it. There are those that say watching our offense is like watching grass grow. Ironically, growing grass may be our best weapon against the Saints offense. Not only are some players growing a playoff beard, our field is, too.

"Among defensive coordinators, Gregg Williams is one of the most aggressive play callers in the NFL. Of course, it's easy to be aggressive defensively when you're playing with a double-digit lead. It will be different when they're the ones trailing. We plan to find out how the Saints react to being down 3-0, or 6-0, or 9-0, or 12-0."

The Saints/49ers clash promises to be a tale of two halves. No, I'm not talking about Ronnie Lott's left pinkie finger and Tom Dempsey's right foot. But a first half controlled by the 49ers, and a second half controlled by the Saints. San Fran has the best kicking game in the NFL, with all-pro kicker David Akers and all-pro punter Andy Lee. However, the more the 49ers can keep these two off the field, by limiting punts and scoring touchdowns instead of settling for 21-yard field goals, the better their chances.

San Fran draws first blood, scoring on their first possession when Alex Smith finds Vernon Davis for an 11-yard TD strike. The 49ers take a 13-10 lead into halftime.

To start the second half, 'Frisco tries an onside kick that fails miserably, covered out of bounds by Payton himself, giving the Saints a short field. Brees capitalizes quickly, hitting Marques Colton from 31 yards out. New Orleans keeps the 49ers at 'Bay' from there.

Saints win, 26-20.

Denver @ New England (-13½)

The Broncos shocked the Steelers on the first play of overtime, winning on Tim Tebow's 80-yard touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas, giving Denver a 29-23 win and another shot at the Patriots. For the game, Tebow was 10-of-21 for 316 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"That took the wind right out of Pittsburgh's sails," John Fox said. "The Steelers have the 'Immaculate Reception.' Now, we have the 'Emasculate Deflation.' I'm at a loss for words, if for no other reason than I've eliminated blasphemy for my vocabulary recently. Wow! Eighty yards in one play. A few weeks ago, that would have taken two games.

"I'm not sure why people are so surprised by our resurgent offense. It's not uncommon for a team to add a new wrinkle in the postseason. Who knew that new wrinkle would be a passing game?"

The Patriots have the offense to score on anybody, complemented by a defense that anybody can score on. New England averaged 428 yards of offense per game, second in the league, while their defense surrendered 411 yards per game, 31st in the league.

"We've heard the terms 'bend' and 'break' much too often," Tom Brady said. "In our case, the defense does the bending, and our offense does the 'breaking.'

"I'm familiar with the concept of the 'hand of God' influencing games. There should be a rule against that. I believe in the separation of church and the state of Colorado. Heck, the NFL made the "Tuck Rule,' which banned the 'hand of Charles Woodson' from influencing games. And since we're playing an AFC West opponent, in Foxboro, in the divisional round, I think it's a good time for another rule that benefits only the Patriots.

"I urge all Patriots fans to generously liquor themselves up for Saturday's game. If the 'spirit' can move the Broncos, then, by all means, the 'spirits' should move the Patriots. Obviously, the best way to combat Tebow and the Broncos is to 'give 'em hell.'"

Suffice it to say Bill Belichick won't defend Tebow the way he did in New England's Week 15 41-23 win in Denver. That would be too obvious. Belichick always has a trick up his sleeve, not to mention several bootleg videotapes, courtesy of his new best friend Josh McDaniels.

The Broncos strike first after forcing a Wes Welker fumble, when Tebow scores on an eight-yard quarterback sneak. It's 7-0 Denver, and Tebow-mania reaches its peak, proof of which comes when the skies open up and it rains cats and dogs, all wearing Tebow jerseys.

However, the Patriots score the next 17 points, and maintain a comfortable cushion thereafter. Brady throws for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Tebow and company are cast out of New England.

New England wins, 34-23.

Houston @ Baltimore (-7)

The Texans captured their first playoff victory with a commanding 31-10 win over Cincinnati last Saturday, led by 153 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns from Arian Foster. Sunday's divisional showdown is a rematch of Baltimore's Week 5 29-14 win over the Texans.

"We were a different team then," Foster said. "We were better. And so were the Ravens. But we don't fear the Baltimore defense. Ray Lewis may look and sound the same, but he's not playing like the old Ray Lewis. He's playing like an old Ray Lewis. Ray's lost a step, but only on the field. His pre-game dance routine is still top-notch. Of course, I wouldn't tell him that to his face, but I can surely depict that in my new hairdo."

The Ravens host a playoff game for the first time since 2007, and, with a win, could host the AFC championship game should the Broncos upset the Patriots.

"Should the Broncos beat the Patriots," John Harbaugh said, "we'd be the last line of defense to prevent a Broncos/Texans AFC title game. That should earn us thousands of fans. That's what I call 'incentive to win.'

"Make no mistake. We plan to make T.J. Yates beat us. We just hope he's the only quarterback that plays like a rookie on Sunday."

The Ravens bring the pressure, blitzing Yates from all angles, and true to his inexperienced nature, he freezes and forgets to move his feet, proving that he truly is a Tar Heel. Yates is overwhelmed and underwhelming.

Baltimore sacks Yates 3 times, takes an early lead, and rides the Ray Rice ground attack to the AFC title game.

Ravens win, 27-13.

NY Giants @ Green Bay (-9)

The Giants dominated the Falcons 24-2 to advance to face the Packers at Lambeau Field for a rematch of Green Bay's Week 13 38-35 victory in MetLife Stadium. New York's offense is clicking, their defense is bullying opposing offenses, and the team is brimming with confidence.

"Indeed," Tom Coughlin said. "We're hitting on all cylinders, which is great in everything except Russian roulette. But please, let's keep the references to firearms to a minimum, although a comparison between 'one in the chamber' and Plaxico Burress would be super-awesome.

"Jason Pierre-Paul has already predicted a Giants victory. Of course, we know all about guarantees made by New York teams — they're not worth the paper they're not written on. In other words, they're worthless. Finally, there's something to thank Rex Ryan for. But now we all have no choice but to follow Jason's lead now. That makes him the 'Pierre'd Piper.'"

The 15-1 Packers open defense of their 2010 Super Bowl crown with a healthy and rested squad supported by the faithful of Lambeau Field, where temperatures are forecast to be in the teens on Sunday.

"I don't mind the elements at all," Aaron Rodgers said. "And speaking of 'elements,' my favorite ones on the 'Aaron Rodgers Periodic Table' are 'M,' 'V,' and 'P.' Sure, there's no 'M' on the real periodic table. Likewise, there's no Drew Brees in the real MVP vote.

"I understand the Giants think they can beat us. I give them credit for what they've accomplished this year. Nine regular season wins is impressive, but people were telling us that in early November. I'll also happily give them use of my 'title belt' touchdown celebration. Heck, I'll gladly offer them State Farm 'Discount Double Check' policy review. They'll need it, when their bandwagon hits a wall."

Indeed, Rodgers is a success, commercial and otherwise. But can he avoid the New York front four's rush? Of course he can. Rodgers may be the NFL's best at throwing on the run. But he can't do it all. Otherwise, he'd be playing defense for the Packers, as well. Offensively, though, he can't be stopped.

Green Bay wins, 30-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 3:12 PM | Comments (0)

January 10, 2012

The Death of Defense

From the NFL's inception through 2007, only one quarterback had ever thrown for 5000 yards: Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins, 1984. In 2008, Drew Brees reached the 5,000 mark, but didn't quite catch Marino's record. In 2011, three quarterbacks threw for 5,000 yards — Brees, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford. Only two had done so in the entirety of the NFL before 2011 and three accomplish this amazing feat in one season.

How? Why? The answers to those questions might be as simple as the game has changed and evolved or quarterbacks are bred for passing more than in the past or a plethora of other ideas.

Inside those ideas are two simple facts: quarterbacks pass more frequently now than ever before, and quarterbacks complete a higher percentage of passes now than ever before.

Dan Marino's 1984 season was unreal. He completed 362 passes in 564 attempts, a 64.2 completion percentage for 5,084 yards and 48 touchdowns.

In Drew Brees's 2011 season, he completed 468 passes in 657 attempts, a 71.2 completion percentage (a single season record) for 5,476 yards and 46 touchdowns.

Notice the difference in the seasons. Brees attempted and completed more than 100 passes more than Marino. Marino had 9.0 yards per attempt and 14.0 yards per completion. Brees had 8.3 yards per attempt and 11.7 yards per completion.

In 1984, three of the then 28 teams passed for more than 4,000 yards. In 2011, nine of the 32 teams went over 4,000 yards passing. 1984 was even a relatively pass-friendly year for its time. 1987 (a 15-game season), 1996, and 1997 were all seasons that had zero teams with over 4,000 yards passing.

Joe Namath was the first to pass for 4,000 yards in 1967. He did so in 14 games, completing 258 passes in 491 attempts a 52.5 completion percentage for 4,007 yards and 26 touchdowns. He had 8.2 yards per attempt and 15.5 yards per completion. Apparently, short passes hadn't been thought of yet.

After Namath's 1967 season, the NFL waited until Dan Fouts in 1979 to see another 4,000-yard season.

So it's easy to see that the game has changed. Passing has become easier.

And here we reach the real crux of the issue. Why has passing gotten easier?

You can look to simple experience for the answer. The longer things go on, the better players will figure out how to do things, but one would think that defending the pass would have gotten better along with the passing itself getting better. Yet the record for most interceptions in a season is one of the longest standing records to this day, 14 by Dick "Night Train" Lane in 1952. In fact, no player has intercepted 11 or more passes in a season since 1981. Only a handful of players have managed 10 interceptions in a single season in the past 10 years.

Certainly interceptions are not the way to measure the quality of the NFL's defensive backs, but it does seem a bit strange to me that quarterbacks have constantly been trending upwards in statistics, while defensive backs have not.

So what is causing this trend? Why is offense winning out over defense? There is only one culprit: league rule changes.

The NFL is very interested in player safety these days, and rightfully so. Players should get injured as infrequently as possible. In pushing player safety, the league has made offense a favorite over defense for the remainder of football history.

Think about how the league was 20, 10 or even five years ago. A receiver running a route across the middle of the field would get lit up after the catch. It was a risk they knew they were taking in running that route, and often they paid the price. Running such a route against guys like Ronnie Lott, Eric Allen, or Joey Browner was not a pleasant thought. Now there is a defenseless receiver rule keeping defenders from making receivers pay for entering their territory.

The same is true of quarterbacks. In the past, if quarterbacks held on to the ball too long, they got hit and hit hard. Guys like Bruce Smith, Reggie White, and Derrick Thomas made you pay if you decided to stand up in the pocket and take the hit that was coming to you. Today, those are penalties more often than not.

As the NFL has progressed, the league understood that the injuries being sustained on the football field were unacceptable risks that needed to be remedied. Fair enough. I can't help but wonder why the players and coaches of the game didn't police themselves and adjust to the changing game to cut down on the injuries all by themselves without new league rules.

If a team doesn't want a receiver getting destroyed by the strong safety on a crossing route, they shouldn't run crossing routes. If a quarterback doesn't want a concussion from the blitzing outside linebacker, they should get rid of the ball before they get too close.

Those things seldom happened. Marvin Harrison and Randy Moss were pretty good at getting down or out of bounds before sustaining huge hits. And they were considered soft. Most receivers ran more and more crossing routes, seeking to prove their toughness. Quarterbacks stayed in the pocket longer and longer, holding on to make a play whenever possible.

The rules that have been brought into effect over the past five to 10 years for player protection are an answer to the injury problem. But are they the answer? If by 2020 you want to see a quarterback throw for 6,000 yards, 60 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, I'd say yeah, these rules are the answer. If you want to see defenses getting penalties or offering weak tackles on every single play, then yeah. Why not?

I'd rather see a bit more balance. This season's playoff teams are a real mystery to me. The top four defensive teams (in both yards and points allowed) made the playoffs (Baltimore, San Francisco, Houston, and Pittsburgh). But some terrible defenses (in yards allowed) also made it into the playoffs, including Detroit (23), New Orleans (24), the New York Giants (27), New England (31), and Green Bay (32).

Detroit and Pittsburgh have already lost. Who would you take in the remaining battles of good defense vs. bad defense? The Ravens, 49ers, or Texans versus the Saints, Giants, Patriots, or Packers. I think most of those matchups would go to the team with the bad defense.

Sadly, this weekend we'll only get to see one of those matchups as the 49ers host the Saints. The Packers get the Giants in a shoot-out frenzy, and the Ravens host the Texans in a defensive struggle.

Maybe it is just this season. Maybe we won't see another 5,000-yard passer for another 15 years. Maybe things will shift and a good defense will reign supreme once more, but I can't help but feel like defense in the NFL is waning in importance. The Saints, Patriots, and Packers each averaged over 400 yards and more than 32 points on offense in the 2011 regular season. The Packers and Patriots also gave up more than 400 yards per game (while managing to only give up around 22 points per game).

These are your two number one teams in each conference: teams that allow 400 yards per game. Isn't that mind-boggling? Isn't that wrong? I think it speaks to the death of defense.

My only hope is that we see a Baltimore vs. 49ers Super Bowl to restore order and allow the phrase "defense wins championships" to remain true.

I just don't see it happening. Do you?

Posted by Andrew Jones at 4:21 PM | Comments (0)

Can Caps Find Their Way Under Hunter?

With every NHL team around the midway point of their schedule, there have been plenty of surprises, disappointments, and a sprinkling of status quo. But parity, that dirty word in today's NHL, continues to rear its head, and a five-game winning or losing streak can quickly turn a team's fortunes.

We've already seen teams flip-flop several times. The Vancouver Canucks and Boston Bruins both seemed to fall victim to the mythical Stanley Cup hangover, then turned it on to fight for conference dominance. The St. Louis Blues have been nearly unbeatable after mediocre play caused a coaching change. The usual suspects of San Jose, Chicago, and Detroit saw some stumbling before all three teams assumed their usual spots as Western Conference powerhouses.

And then we have the Washington Capitals. The Caps started hot, then floundered, then really floundered, then finally seemed to find their footing under new coach Dale Hunter. For a team loaded with talent, there won't be any answers until we get to May. However, this recent stretch does make it seem like the Caps have turned the corner.

What's the difference? They've still got hot-and-cold goaltending and they've had to deal with the longterm loss of defenseman Mike Green. However, if you took footage of the November 2011 Bruce Boudreau Capitals and the January 2012 Dale Hunter Capitals, the difference is clearly in the visuals: the Hunter Caps just seem to be trying harder.

Some teams come together immediately after a coach is fired — this year's St. Louis squad under Ken Hitchcock is a perfect example. Other teams take time to form an identity. The Boudreau Caps were, at their peak, a wildly entertaining run-and-gun team led by the non-stop enthusiasm of Alex Ovechkin. This year's Boudreau Caps seemed moribund, afraid to make mistakes, and tentative to do anything.

The Hunter Caps looked the same way for the first few weeks, and the changing of the guard looked like a stuck-in-neutral transition process. From about mid-December on, though, the Caps looked to regain some swagger while becoming a stingy defensive team; following a December 13 loss against the Philadelphia Flyers, Washington went 5-2-1 while keeping opponents to 2 or fewer goals in six of those eight games.

What else happened during that time? Alex Ovechkin woke up and started to look like himself again.

Make no mistake, the Caps have a talented lineup with numerous weapons. But Ovechkin represents the identity of the Caps, and it's pretty easy to see that when he looks listless, so does the rest of the squad. Tune into any of the November Caps games and you would have seen this crystal clear. And while Ovechkin didn't necessarily get things rolling when Hunter took over, he did begin to engage the games more physically. However, it took one direction from the coaching staff to really get him going again: shoot the puck more.

Since that simple directive came down, Ovechkin has started to become more like himself; in fact, his shots per game rose from 3.35 in November to 4.5 in December, and it's no coincidence that the winning streak to close out 2011 went hand-in-hand with Ovechkin's scoring streak. The Caps have half a season to really get things together, and while there are no guarantees, but you'd rather see a team start to pull itself out of the mud instead of mire in it — like where Bruce Boudreau's new team is at.

The other x-factor in play here? Defenseman Mike Green, who lasted a game and a half before pulling his groin. While Green's defensive woes are well documented, his importance in Washington's transition game can't be understated. When Green permanently returns to the lineup, he'll have to adjust his conditioning as well as learning Hunter's system.

Still, the biggest chip on the table is that it's just January. Earlier in the season, Kevin Dineen, head coach of the Southeast Division's Florida Panthers, was asked about their slumping division rivals, and he said that Washington could easily win 10 in a row and we'd all forget about November. If the team can fuse together Hunter's never-say-die attitude and Ovechkin's go-go-go demeanor, the Caps may find themselves in the best position entering the Stanley Cup playoffs that they've ever been. There's still a long road to travel, with the team starting to find its legs, they have just enough time to get healthy and get rolling.

Posted by Mike Chen at 1:20 PM | Comments (0)

January 9, 2012

NFL 2011 Wild Card Weekend

Five Quick Hits

* During a 5½-minute stretch on Sunday afternoon, FOX showed two plays and nine commercials. That's not okay.

* The Hall of Fame has announced this year's 17 finalists, and for the most part it's a good group. The only ones I definitely wouldn't vote for are Jerome Bettis, Charles Haley, and Andre Reed.

* My favorites: Jack Butler, Cris Carter, Dermontti Dawson, Chris Doleman, Curtis Martin, Will Shields. That leaves off some great players I'd like to see enshrined.

* In his sixth season with the Texans, Gary Kubiak has now led the team to its first ever postseason win. Most owners these days wouldn't keep a coach past five years if he never made the playoffs. Good on ya, Houston.

* Someone at FOX has got to tell Jimmy Johnson to go easy on the tanning beds. Jimmy, you're orange.

***

Jim Nantz: "You said to me this week you thought [Rashard] Mendenhall was one of the top 10 backs in the league."
Phil Simms: "I don't even think that's a question."

Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Arian Foster, Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Michael Turner, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles ... It's at least a question. Mendenhall ranked 21st in the NFL in rushing yards this year. Wild card analysis below, divisional round predictions below that, All-Loser Team at the bottom.

Wildcard Roundups

Texans 31, Bengals 10

In the first-ever postseason battle of rookie quarterbacks, Andy Dalton tossed three interceptions, and Houston scored 24 straight to overcome an early deficit. Some of the Texans were visibly nervous in the first quarter, as T.J. Yates and Arian Foster admitted in post-game interviews. But the Bengals failed to capitalize on their opportunities, and when you let a good team stick around, you generally pay for it.

The turning point in the game was Dalton's first interception, when rookie lineman J.J. Watt made an acrobatic play to steal the pass at the line of scrimmage, running into the end zone untouched for Houston's first lead of the day. Before that play, it felt like the Texans were lucky just to be hanging on. Immediately afterwards, you got the sense Cincinnati was in trouble. Turnovers play a critical role in any game, but the past few seasons, it seems like every playoff game hinges on turnover differential. I think it was Shannon Sharpe who said on Sunday that in the playoffs, momentum swings more often and more dramatically than in the regular season. That does seem to be the case.

The Bengals lost by three touchdowns, so let's be clear that I'm not trying to blame any one person, but man, Chris Crocker had a rough game. He dropped a potential interception that he probably could have run back for a touchdown, and he's the guy who got stiff-armed on Arian Foster's brilliant 42-yard touchdown run. The Bengals allowed more than 31 points only once all season, at Pittsburgh in Week 13. They seemed to sleepwalk through most of the second half, but credit the Texans for coming up big in their most important game ever.

Saints 45, Lions 28

The Saints set a playoff record for offensive yardage, and the two teams combined to tie a 1995 Bills/Dolphins matchup for the most combined yardage in a postseason game. In that game, Dan Marino passed for 422 yards, but Buffalo actually rushed for 341 — more than twice as many yards as New Orleans (167) and more than 10 times as many as Detroit (32). It would be nice to see the Lions add some balance to their offense next season. We already know they can throw. Calvin Johnson proved again, even in defeat, that he is the greatest receiver in the game today, catching 12 passes for 211 yards and 2 TDs, becoming only the sixth player, and the first since Steve Smith six years ago, to gain at least 200 receiving yards in a playoff game.

This was the second wild card game in the last three years with over 1,000 yards of combined offense. Remember the Cardinals/Packers game a couple years ago, when Aaron Rodgers passed for 422 yards and scored 5 TDs, and Kurt Warner threw more touchdown passes than incompletions? The contest set postseason records for total points (96) and combined first downs (62). There were more yards gained in New Orleans on Saturday.

The definitive factor was New Orleans' ability to sustain drives. The Saints didn't punt all game, converting 7/10 meaningful third downs (a kneel-down in the final minute made it 7/11) and going 3/3 on fourth down.

Giants 24, Falcons 2

This season, the Giants ranked 25th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, and 29th in passing yards allowed. Every opponent they faced in 2011 scored at least one touchdown and at least 14 points. Even the Rams! Only one team all season gained under 300 yards of offense against the Giants (Dolphins, Week 8). The Giants hadn't held any opponent to under three points since a shutout victory over the Buccaneers two and a half years ago.

So the Falcons came into New York (yeah, New Jersey, I know) and just laid this offensive egg of massive proportions. They gained only 247 yards and failed to score on offense or special teams, lighting up the scoreboard only with a lonely safety. The Giants played well defensively, but let's be honest. This is not a great, or even particularly good, defensive team. Atlanta's offense stunk on Sunday.

If you wanted to blame one person for the loss, in which Atlanta gained its fewest yards and points of the season, I'd look at head coach Mike Smith. The Falcons came into this game with Napoleon's battle plan: (1) Show up, (2) See what happens. I don't know what their strategy was, unless it involved repeated quarterback sneaks into the heart of New York's defensive line.

The Falcons' fourth-down decision-making in this game was a horror. On the first play of the second quarter, the Falcons went for it on 4th-and-1 from the Giants' 24, passing up a 42-yard field goal attempt for the early lead. Matt Ryan got stuffed on the sneak, and the Giants took over. That led to the safety, so it wasn't a total disaster, but on the subsequent drive, facing 4th-and-1 from the opponent's 42, Smith opted to punt. Huh? You'll go for it from the 25, where you can kick an easy field goal, but not from the 42, which is too far for a field goal and too close to punt? Matt Bosher's kick was fair caught at the 15-yard line, a 27-yard punt.

In the third quarter, down 10-2 and facing 4th-and-1 from the 21, the Falcons again passed up a makable field goal and came up short on the quarterback sneak. At what point do you stop saying to yourself, "We'll get 'em next time," and start realizing that your opponent is better at defending this play than you are at running it? The uninspired play-calling on 3rd- or 4th-and-short was only part of the problem. Smith declined to challenge an apparent fumble early in the first quarter — a huge play — and accepted a holding penalty on the next down, giving New York 4th-and-4 at the 36 instead of 3rd-and-27 at the 13. I know you're happy the Giants are going to punt, but that's a 23-yard swing in field position. You don't think your defense can stop them on 3rd-and-27?

Given the lopsided outcome, it barely seems worth noting that the Giants were repeatedly on the wrong side of close calls by the officiating crew.

Broncos 29, Steelers 23

On Sunday, Pittsburgh's coaching staff was too stubborn to win. Ben Roethlisberger, who started the game well short of 100%, aggravated his ankle early in the second quarter. He threw interceptions on each of his next two plays, though one was nullified by a Denver penalty. At halftime, Ben had 134 yards and a pick (48.1 passer rating), compared to 185 and a touchdown for Tim Tebow (122.3 rating). Ben repeatedly held the ball too long, had another turnover saved by a bad call, when his fumbled lateral — clearly a backwards pass — was judged to be an incomplete pass, and the whistle made the play non-reviewable.

A similar issue arose in the Saints/Lions game, when Detroit looked to have a sure fumble return TD. That's a short-coming of the replay system, something that the league should try to address.

Anyway, Roethlisberger looked awful. The Steelers should have sat him down for Charlie Batch. Ben played when he probably shouldn't have in Weeks 15 and 17, too. Do the Steelers have that little faith in Batch, or does Roethlisberger have the power to overrule his coaches?

I don't think the Steelers took Denver seriously. They played a hobbled quarterback because they didn't believe they needed a healthy one. They had no pass rush, because they didn't believe Tebow could throw. He passed for a career-high 316 yards, including five passes of 30 yards or more, and wasn't sacked, for only the second time as a starter (the first being Week 10, when he only attempted 8 passes). Tebow's 10.9% sack percentage was the worst of any starting QB this season, and the Steelers didn't get to him once.

I realize it's tough when you're missing so many defensive starters. Ryan Clark didn't play because of a serious medical condition. Casey Hampton and Brett Keisel were injured in the first half and never returned. Lamar Woodley was on and off the field. That's no excuse. The Steelers weren't prepared, and they played sloppy. They used a critical second-half timeout when the clock wasn't running. Backup center Doug Legursky drew two penalties for being late with the snap, and he hiked the ball over Roethlisberger's head on a play that pushed the Steelers out of field goal range.

Injuries obviously played a role in Denver's victory, but let's not make excuses. The Broncos showed up ready to play. Pittsburgh expected them to roll over and die. You hate to say this about a team of professionals, but it looked to me like the Steelers didn't try hard enough. They didn't prepare properly, they didn't make the right in-game adjustments, and they made critical mistakes throughout the game.

Divisional Forecast

In the first round of this year's playoffs, all four home teams won. That hasn't happened since 2006.

Saints at 49ers

New Orleans has looked unstoppable recently. The Saints have won nine games in a row, and scored more than 40 points in four straight. Their 17-point victory over Detroit was actually the first time in a month the Saints hadn't won by more than 20. But now New Orleans has to play the 49ers in San Francisco. The Saints went 8-0 at home, but just 5-3 on the road. The franchise actually has never won a road playoff game. And the Niners were 7-1 at home this season.

This is not a great matchup for San Francisco. The 49ers have a great defense, particularly run defense. The Saints can run, but they win first and foremost through the air. If the Niners are going to come out on top, they'll have to match Drew Brees' big plays with big defensive plays: sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries. They also need to attack the Saints in the air, where New Orleans has shown flashes of serious vulnerability, especially when the game stays close.

This is probably deranged, but I think we tend to overrate offense and underrate defense, and this cross-country road trip is a big deal for the Saints, so I predict the 49ers win an upset, coming away with a hold-your-breath 1-point victory.

Broncos at Patriots

The Broncos get just six days to rest before their next game. They'll travel halfway across the country, to face the Patriots in a building where they almost never lose. New England easily defeated the Broncos in Week 15, and now Denver will be without Eric Decker. Many of us underestimated the Broncos last week, but New England won't do that, and Denver probably can't bring its A-game two weeks in a row. There's no comparison between a gimpy Ben Roethlisberger and a healthy Tom Brady, plus the Broncos have a long road trip on a short week, facing one of the best home teams in the NFL. New England by 17.

Texans at Ravens

I've been known to overestimate the importance of home field advantage, but it's hard to overstate in this case. The Ravens are an entirely different team at home (8-0) than away (4-4). Houston got a huge boost from the home crowd and closed roof against Cincinnati, but those advantages will be reversed in Baltimore.

The Ravens' run defense is 2nd-best in the NFL, allowing only 3.5 yards per attempt and 92.6 per game. That means the Texans probably need big games from T.J. Yates and Andre Johnson. Defensively, I'd aim to neutralize Ray Rice and hope Joe Flacco has one of his off days. A big play or two on special teams wouldn't go amiss. Too many things have to go right for the Texans to come out on top here. I'll say Baltimore by a touchdown.

Giants at Packers

There's a comparison to be drawn between the Giants' 38-35 loss to Green Bay in Week 13, and their 38-35 loss to the undefeated Patriots in Week 17 of the 2007 season. The Giants lost that game, but proved they could play with New England, and when the two rematched in the postseason, it was the Giants who won Super Bowl XLII. This year's Giants proved they could hang with Green Bay, and the rematch comes with the Packers potentially rusty and the Giants on a roll.

Unfortunately for New York, Aaron Rodgers has played exceptionally well in the postseason: 303 yds/gm, 13 TD, 3 INT, 112.6 rating, and 3 rushing TDs in five games. The Packers may be rusty from their first-round bye and a meaningless Week 17 game in which several stars, including Rodgers, sat out. But the Pack also could be the healthiest they've been in months, playing in a home stadium where they haven't lost all year and facing a team they already beat on the road. Apart from the final game without Rodgers, the Packers won all their home games this year by at least 8 points, the closest being the Week 1 matchup with New Orleans.

I don't believe the Giants can stop Rodgers, so they'll have to match points in a shootout. They can keep it close, but that's not the way you beat this team. Green Bay advances with a 9-point victory.

***

Finally, a Sports Central tradition, our annual All-Loser Team: an all-star team made up entirely of players whose teams missed the postseason. If this team could actually be assembled, it would beat any and every team in the playoffs.

2011 NFL All-Loser Team

QB Tony Romo, DAL
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI
FB Greg Jones, JAC
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
WR Steve Smith, CAR
TE Jason Witten, DAL
C Nick Mangold, NYJ
G Davin Joseph, TB
G Andy Levitre, BUF
OT Jason Peters, PHI
OT Michael Roos, TEN

DT Calais Campbell, ARI
DT Cullen Jenkins, PHI
DE Jared Allen, MIN
DE Trent Cole, PHI
OLB James Anderson, CAR
OLB Lance Briggs, CHI
ILB London Fletcher, WAS
CB Darrelle Revis, NYJ
CB Brandon Flowers, KC
FS Eric Weddle, SD
SS Kam Chancellor, SEA

K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK
P T.J. Conley, NYJ
KR Patrick Peterson, ARI

Honorable Mentions: Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, JAC); Jason Babin (DE, PHI); Chris Clemons (DE, SEA); Brian Urlacher (ILB, CHI); Derrick Johnson (ILB, KC); Tamba Hali (OLB, KC); DeMarcus Ware (OLB, DAL); Brandon Browner (CB, SEA)

Offensive Loser of the Year: LeSean McCoy, PHI
Defensive Loser of the Year: Jared Allen, DE, MIN
Most Valuable Loser: Cam Newton, QB, CAR

Posted by Brad Oremland at 7:59 PM | Comments (0)

Simulation Shows That BCS Got it Right

For years, college football fans have been clamoring for a playoff system to determine the national champion. After this season's controversy surrounding the decision to play a regular season rematch for the title, even some coaches are jumping on the playoff bandwagon. Add to that the fact that three top 10 BCS teams didn't get BCS bowl game invitations, the cry for a fair system to decide who is the best team in college football is even louder. But would a playoff system have given us two different teams in the title game?

To answer that question, I figured that now would be a good time to set up a playoff bracket and use a simulation engine to play the games. I used the site WhatIfSports.com, one of the leading online simulation engines. To determine the playoff brackets, I decided that since there are five BCS bowls there should be at least 10 teams in the playoffs. But 10 is an odd number (not in math, but in bracket-making), so rather than drop two teams to form an eight team postseason, I added two to make it 12 with the top four teams getting first round byes. The brackets were of basic format: 5-12-4, 8-9-1 on the top, 7-11-2, 6-10-3 on the bottom.

We all know that teams play each other only once in bowl games and playoffs, but since I do not know how the algorithms are setup for each team (does the site give extra weight to SEC teams?), and in fairness to how a team would actually perform against its opponent if it played consistent with its actual season outcomes, I simulated each matchup 10 times.

The first round was played at the higher ranked team's home stadium with neutral weather conditions: 70 degrees with no wind or precipitation. For the quarterfinals, semifinals, and championship game, I assigned those games to actual bowl games for all the traditionalists (including myself), with the higher ranked team playing the in the stadium closest to its campus.

And, since there are seven of those games, I added the Cotton Bowl, Gator Bowl, and Sun Bowl, the three oldest bowls outside the BCS bowls, to host games. For the simulation, the weather conditions remained the same and the matchups were played at a "neutral" site since there was no option to select individual stadiums. Here is how it all shook out.

First Round

(12) Baylor at (5) Oregon

This series ended up being split 5-5, but Oregon edged Baylor in the score average.

Outcome: Oregon 33, Baylor 32.

(11) Virginia Tech at (6) Arkansas

Arkansas dominated this series, winning eight of the 10 games by a fairly comfortable margin.

Outcome: Arkansas 36, Virginia Tech 27.

(10) Wisconsin at (7) Boise State

This series also was split 5-5, but Boise State had the upper hand in score average.

Outcome: Boise State 37, Wisconsin 33.

(9) South Carolina at (8) Kansas State

This game was the only upset of the first round as another matchup split 5-5, but South Carolina won the score average.

Outcome: South Carolina 17, Kansas State 16.

Quarterfinals

(9) South Carolina vs. (1) LSU (Sugar Bowl)

The Tigers had no trouble winning this matchup, taking eight of the 10 games handily.

Outcome: LSU 28, South Carolina 11.

(7) Boise State vs. (2) Alabama (Gator Bowl)

For all the Boise State apologists, the simulation shows that they wouldn't stand a chance against the Crimson Tide. Alabama won nine of the 10 matchups by a fairly comfortable margin.

Outcome: Alabama 33, Boise State 22.

(6) Arkansas vs. (3) Oklahoma State (Sun Bowl)

This matchup represented the only sweep of the simulation, with the Cowboys winning all 10 games.

Outcome: Oklahoma State 43, Arkansas 27.

(5) Oregon vs. (4) Stanford (Rose Bowl)

Okay, so a lot of people don't like to see regular season rematches in the postseason — at least in college football — but this is how the rankings determined the matchups. Believe it or not, the simulation gave the Cardinal seven wins over the Ducks but the score average was dead even. To break the tie, I assigned a half a point for each of Stanford's wins ahead of Oregon's.

Outcome: Stanford 31, Oregon 29.

Semifinals

(4) Stanford vs. (1) LSU (Cotton Bowl)

This wasn't even close as LSU won eight of the matchups by somewhat large margins.

Outcome: LSU 35, Stanford 24.

(3) Oklahoma State vs. (2) Alabama (Orange Bowl)

This also was an 8-2 edge for 'Bama, although the scores were much higher and closer.

Outcome: Alabama 45, Oklahoma State 43.

National Championship

(2) Alabama vs. (1) LSU (Fiesta Bowl)

For those who watched the regular season game between Alabama and LSU, one thing was evident: the Crimson Tide essentially dominated the game and should have won by at least 16 points. Three missed field goals and a fumble inside the LSU 5-yard-line were key moments that kept the Tigers in the game. The simulation supports the notion that 'Bama should have won that game. In the 10 matchups, the 'Tide won seven of them, and most of the scores weren't even close.

Outcome: Alabama 31, LSU 20.

So while we still rail at the BCS for putting two teams from the same conference in the title game, maybe the polls, computers, and other factors that rank the schools got it right. And if the simulation of a playoff is anywhere near accurate, it proves they did.

Posted by Adam Russell at 3:20 PM | Comments (0)

January 7, 2012

Becoming a True Cinderella

We're now past the holiday season and into conference play across the country. This is the point in time where teams from mid- and low-major conferences slide into the background for their two-month long attention hibernation. While we focus on the jockeying amongst the power leagues, most of the other competitors go along their merry way, working to get into a position to become the next March Cinderella.

These are the programs that help make March special in the realm of sports. Their journeys to the NCAA tournament, along with their attempts to knock off the traditional giants, help to build the brand of the Big Dance. But for all those that enjoy seeing the "little guys" make a run to the Final Four, there's not a lot of boogie about.

Looking at the list of college champs, you would have to scroll down to 1990 to find the last titleholder with an affiliation outside the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12, or SEC. That honor went to the high-flying act known as the UNLV Runnin' Rebels. Going back a bit further, there are other schools that have won from outside the "elite." However, if you consider the current status of Louisville and Marquette as Big East members, the previous champion to UNLV with no power conference ties won it all in 1966. It was Texas Western, which now goes by UTEP.

This is what makes Butler's back-to-back runs to the National Finals so remarkable. And, at the time, it's what made George Mason's 2006 path to the Final Four so outstanding. Despite the fact that more talent is being spread across all D-I conferences, the majority of five-star recruits still land with the big names. That means the known commodities play against other top-tier talent more often and have more preparation for the riggers of the tournament.

The next step in expanding the landscape would be for one of these Cinderellas to not only hold on to the "Glass Sneaker," but to kick the door in and say "Gimme my crown!" There are some that might be ready to make that dream a reality. Whom, you might ask?

Honorable Mention: Oakland Grizzlies

This is the big stretch out of the group. However, if there are leagues starting to gain on the mid-majors, I think the Summit is right up there. The Grizzlies are in rebuilding mode after last year's run that saw them beat Tennessee and take Texas to the wire in the tourney. Greg Kampe has recruited quite a few athletes to play in the shadow of Ann Arbor. If he stays, there's no reason for that to dry up.

10) VCU Rams

Last season's Final Four darlings are going through some turnover this time around. The biggest move after the loss to Butler last April was extending Shaka Smart's contract for eight more years. Of course, this isn't set in stone. However, it does give some stability to a program that will have more expectations on it over the next couple of years. And if Smart can recruit to his frantic pressing style, another late run is possible.

9) New Mexico Lobos

There have been a lot of "coach reclamation projects" over the years. A successful coach gets booted from a high-profile job and lands under the radar. Mike Davis and Larry Eustachy have followed this pattern to Conference USA. Dan Monson has stunned two ranked teams (at the time) this season with Long Beach State. For my money, though, the reincarnation project with the most upside is taking place in Albuquerque.

Steve Alford has turned the Lobos into a perennial postseason presence in his four years there. Three NIT bids and one NCAA bid might not meet standards when he was stalking sidelines in the Big Ten, but in a Mountain West that annually struggles to get three school into the Madness, it's a step in the right direction.

8) Old Dominion Monarchs

With Jim Larranaga off to Miami, Blaine Taylor is one of the gold standards in the CAA. The Monarchs have also been a mainstay in the postseason, with four NCAA and one NIT showing in the last seven years. Unlike VCU, the Monarchs have built their brand on tough, half-court, rebounding-minded philosophy. This strategy can keep teams in many games. If they add a couple an additional scorer or two to that brand, you can make strides in March.

7) Saint Mary's Gaels

Randy Bennett has built quite the program in Moraga, and now the Gaels are second in the WCC pecking order to Gonzaga. The combination of West Coast kids and Australian imports has made this squad a yearly threat for the NCAAs ... and their results are getting better.

In 2008, Saint Mary's lost in the first round as a 10-seed. In 2010, the Gaels returned to the tournament (as a 10-seed again) and upset Villanova to make it to the Sweet 16. With it being 2012, it might be time to expect another trip to the Big Dance. Where they'll take it ... who knows?

6) Wichita State Shockers

The Missouri Valley Conference is known for being giant slayers. The next step would be to throw a few giants out there themselves. Out of all the programs that could take up the challenge, WSU appears to be the most solidified. They've locked up coach Gregg Marshall for the next seven seasons. Plus, they're the defending Postseason NIT champions.

This information should provide enough of a springboard to get the Shockers into this year's Madness. But Marshall's looking to build a consistent contender in the Heartland. And doing that in a conference like the Valley can really set them up to make return trips to the field of 68.

5) BYU Cougars

The Cougars have the history. They have 26 all-time appearances in the NCAAs, along with the dubious distinction as the school that currently tops the list of most entries with no Final Four results. Jimmer Fredette couldn't end that streak last year, but the fact that this program has provided itself that many chances means that a breakthrough will happen at some point.

And this year could start driving them in that direction. I believe BYU joining the West Coast Conference is a win-win situation for the school and its new affiliation. Having two games a year with programs including Gonzaga, Saint Mary's, and Santa Clara should bring some added sizzle (and eyeballs) to the left coast.

4) Temple Owls

For as much history as BYU has, it's got nothing on Temple. The Owls finished third in the country twice (1956 and 1958), but hasn't been back to the Final Four since. There have been five other Elite Eight appearances since 1988. Fran Dunphy has continued the tradition of hard-nosed Philadelphia basketball at the school. Get a Mark Macon-type shooter to come back on campus, and they might be my favorite off this list to kick in the door…

3) Butler Bulldogs

... unless Hinkle Fieldhouse becomes home to the latest Hoosier story. Butler is now the gold standard for "Magical March" stories. Going to back-to-back national championship games gives you more than street cred. It gets you attention and, possibly, higher recruits. And don't sleep on the Horizon League for competition. Cleveland State, UW-Milwaukee, and Valparaiso aren't exactly the Big East, but they will test your resolve.

Now we get to see how Brad Stevens handles the success of the last two years. So far this year ... not so much. But didn't we say the same thing about them last year, too?

2) Gonzaga Bulldogs

The standard before George Mason and Butler came along. The Bulldogs have been in the conversation for "the team to break down the barrier" since 2000. Many times, they've underachieved. However, they've stayed in the conversation for the last 12 seasons, which is hard to do for most power conference programs. The key to their staying power has been coach Mark Few. Few's ability to recruit outside the box has helped him grab players that might be more raw, but very talented. The question is, "Will the 'Zags ever take the next step?" They stay close, but that can only last for so long.

1) Xavier Musketeers

Xavier hasn't reached the deep waters that Butler has. The Musketeers have been less consistent as Gonzaga (but only slightly). However, they have become the biggest presence in what I would consider the seventh power league. The Atlantic-10 can ball. Temple's proved it. Saint Joseph's has proved it. Richmond is proving it. And the X-men lead them all, even through a rotation of head coaches (Pete Gillen, the late Skip Prosser, Thad Matta, Sean Miller).

Now it's Chris Mack's turn to lead the school to its first Final Four berth. The talent is there, as evidenced by their top-10 ranking a few weeks back. The team is as tough as anybody. My problem is that under Mack, the toughness seems to have run amuck (a brawl with crosstown rival Cincinnati will show that just a bit). If they can reign in the "thuggish" attitude, this program has the capability to make more deep runs in March.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 7:53 PM | Comments (0)

January 6, 2012

Foul Territory: Movers and Shakers

* I Quit Match, or Ex'd Big Thing — Brock Lesnar announced his retirement from the UFC immediately after a round 1 TKO loss to Alistair Overeem at UFC 141. Lesnar will likely become the first athlete to parlay a devastating defeat in the octagon into a title shot at WrestleMania.

* "Money" Don't “Walk," or if He's Not Careful, His Next Fight May Result in Him Wearing a Purse, and Not Earning One — Floyd Mayweather, Jr. began serving his three-month jail sentence on Friday at the Clark County Detention Center in Las Vegas. A Mayweather/Manny Pacquiao bout could still happen as early as November, but it's not likely, as Mayweather said he'd prefer not to mention the word “train" while incarcerated. He did, however, say he will feel uniquely qualified to make a cameo in The Hangover 3.

* It's O'er, the Ram Parts — Steve Spagnuolo was fired by the St. Louis Rams on Monday, one day after the Rams concluded a 2-14 season, tied for the worst in the NFL. Spagnuolo was 10-38 in three seasons in St. Louis. He said he'd never forget his time in St. Louis, while everyone else affiliated with the team said they would do just the opposite.

* Man Overboard, or Sea Ya — The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fired head coach Raheem Morris and his entire staff on Monday after a disappointing 4-12 campaign, including 10 consecutive losses to end the year. Bucs owner Malcolm Glazer is concentrating his search for a new head coach on candidates whose first names don't sound like a rapper's.

* Brass Exodus, or Like Father, Like Son, or as Luck Would Have it — The Indianapolis Colts fired vice chairman Bill Polian and his son Chris, the team's general manager, on Monday. Peyton Manning said he was “stunned" and “surprised" by the decision. It seems the Colts felt it necessary to get rid of two “Polians" to make room for two franchise quarterbacks.

* Anger Management, or Double A(Hole) Baseball — The Chicago Cubs traded volatile right-hander Carlos Zambrano to the Miami Marlins for right-handed pitcher Chris Volstad. Zambrano will pitch for friend and former Chicago White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen, who, more than anyone, knows crazy when he sees it.

* Advantage: Ambiguous Statements, or Love: Hate — Serena Williams said she “doesn't love tennis," but has no intention of giving up the sport, and that she “can't live without it." Not surprisingly, Williams later said she didn't remember saying those things. It was an uncharacteristic outburst from Williams, as she's often expected to go off on meek line judges, and not on tangents.

* Terry, Terry, Why Ya' Buggin'?, Or Disappearing Act — Terry Bradshaw said the Jets should cut Santonio Holmes, who was benched in New York's final game after arguing with teammate Wayne Hunter in the huddle. Holmes has lost virtually all support within the Jets organization, and, unlike his early days in Belle Glade, Florida, no one's buying what he's selling.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:25 PM | Comments (0)

From Cy-VP to Sayonara?

Some speculation commences that precedent argues against Justin Verlander, the American League's Cy Young Award winner and Most Valuable Player Award winner for 2011, facing other than sobering after-effects. Well, now. It's worth a look to see just what are the precedents involving pitchers who have scored both awards for a single season.

Don Newcombe, 1956 — Big Newk was the first Cy Young Award winner, and from his until Sandy Koufax's a decade later, the Cy was awarded to one pitcher across the board. Newcombe scored both that inaugural Cy and his MVP with a staggering 27-7 won-lost record, a solid if not league-leading 3.06 ERA, a league-leading .794 won-lost percentage, a league-leading 0.99 walks and hits per inning pitched (WHIP) average, 4.1 wins above a replacement-level player, a 4.2 win probability added factor, and the fine-hitting, fine-fielding right-hander even led his league in putouts by a pitcher.

The aftermath — 1956 turned out to be the last good, never mind excellent season for Newcombe, who probably lost a lot to two years in the Army (1952-53, the same years Willie Mays lost) and a lot more to a) his tendency to get careless when the games were close and b) his battle with the bottle. In fact, his struggling began in earnest in the 1956 World Series, when he was battered as the Game 2 starter for 6 runs and 6 hits in an inning and two thirds (Yogi Berra's 3-run homer finished him off) and lasted only three full innings starting Game 7. (Berra was his main punisher again, with 2-run bombs in the first and third innings, but Elston Howard's fourth-inning-opening solo bomb finished him off this time.)

In the Dodgers' final Brooklyn season, he led the National League in walks per nine innings (a remarkable 1.5 per nine), but in nothing else; he was still good for 3.5 wins above a replacement level player, but his won-lost record went into the negative dramatically enough at 11-12 and his ERA swelled to 3.49. He had one more decent season (1959, for the Cincinnati Reds), but was gone after going a combined 6-9/4.48 ERA/1.33 WHIP/-0.4 WAR for the Reds and the Cleveland Indians.

Sandy Koufax, 1963 — Koufax had begun coming into his own in 1961, when he smashed the National League single-season strikeout record, led the league in both strikeouts per nine (9.5) and strikeouts-to-walks (2.50), not to mention winning 18 games and shrinking his ERA to 3.52 while pitching in a home park (the lopsided-arrayed Los Angeles Coliseum) that should have been killing him. After an injury-shortened 1962, when he looked like he'd rule the earth (he was 14-4 when a 17 July start lasted one inning as his circulation-compromised index finger finally did him in; he lost two of four appearances in late September, being game enough — fool enough? — to try to pitch with the Dodgers grinding against the Giants in a race that needed a playoff to decide), he exploded back in '63 — winning his first of three pitching triple crowns, leading the majors in WHIP (0.88) and strikeouts-to-walks (5.88), throwing a league-leading 11 shutouts, and finishing 10.8 WAR. That got him both his first of three Cy Youngs and his only National League MVP, and he went on to flatten the Yankees in Games 1 and 4 during the Dodgers' otherwise improbable Series sweep.

The aftermath — Koufax in 1964 was cruising to another likely Cy Young season when the injury that exposed his fateful arthritic elbow — he landed on four points scrambling back to base, of all things — took him out in August with a 19-5/1.74/223 strikeout/9.0 K-BB/7 shutout record. And he still ended up leading the league in the latter four when the season wrapped up. Under a medical regimen that some would call insane in the brain if they'd known its complete extent, Koufax went completely off the charts in 1965 and 1966, winning his final two Cy Youngs — which also happened to be the last two Cys awarded to one pitcher across the board — and, after retiring with a 1966 season that would have been a career year and a fluke season alike for most other pitchers, securing his Hall of Fame credentials in earnest.

Bob Gibson, 1968 — In the Year of the Pitcher, Gibson bagged the National League's Cy Young and Most Valuable Player awards; it's easy to think that surrealistic 1.12 ERA was the major factor, but Gibson also threw a surrealistic thirteen shutouts, struck out 268 batters, led the league with a 0.85 WHIP, and threw in his fifth straight Gold Glove award. Not to mention getting thisclose to winning three Series games for a second consecutive season. Did we also mention he led the league in WAR with 12.2?

The aftermath — Gibson in 1969 went 20-13 with a 2.18 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, 269 strikeouts, and a league-leading 28 complete games. He also led the league in WAR again, with a mere 11.7. For anyone else, that's a career year; in 1969, it wasn't close to enough to overthrow Tom Seaver's Cy Young-winning coming-out party. Gibson took the Cy back with a 23-7 1970; his league-leading 23 wins were probably the reason he won the award, but he also topped the league with 10.1 WAR. His Hall of Fame case was probably secured for all-time in that three-season stretch, and he had about three more solid if not off-the-chart years ahead of him before his retirement.

Denny McLain, 1968 — In that same Year of the Pitcher, McLain was the American League's Gibson, more or less — those off-the-chart 31 wins were the obvious calling card, but McLain also threw 28 complete games and led the American League with a 4.44 K-BB. His 0.91 WHIP was none too shabby, either. He didn't lead the league in any other categories, other than innings pitched and batters faced, but he didn't have to. If you want an idea about just how much of a Year of the Pitcher 1968 actually was, in the American League especially, consider that in the American League four of the league's top ten MVP finishers were pitchers. (Behind McLain: Dave McNally, Luis Tiant, and Mel Stottlemyre. In the National League, the MVP-winning Gibson was one of only two top-10 finishing pitchers for the award, with Juan Marichal a very distant fifth.)

The aftermath — McLain performed only modestly in the 1968 World Series, sore-armed from the regular-season campaign, losing twice to Gibson (in Games 1 and 4), but winning Game 6 with a complete-game seven-strikeout no-walk performance while the Tigers battered the Cardinals for a 10-run third and a 13-1 final — and on two days' rest in the bargain. When the new rules took effect in 1969 including mound heights, McLain pitched — like Gibson — almost as though the changes made no difference; in fact, he landed a second straight Cy Young Award and led the league with 24 wins.

It was McLain's final taste of mound glory; he weathered a 1970 interrupted by his suspension for bookmaking, then — with arm trouble even more in earnest, aggravated by numerous cortisone shots he'd taken to alleviate it, not to mention clashes with Washington Senators manager Ted Williams (who wasn't thrilled when the high-living McLain was dealt to the Nats) — went 10-22 with a 1.41 WHIP and a 4.28 ERA in 1971. After a complete-collapse 6.37 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 1972 (for the Oakland Athletics and the Atlanta Braves) indicated his arm was gone completely, McLain was out of baseball.

Vida Blue, 1971 — After a couple of cups of coffee with the A's in 1969 and 1970, the precocious Blue (he was 21) came into his own in 1971 with a Cy-and-MVP winning season in which he led his league in ERA (1.82), WHIP (0.95), and strikeouts per nine (8.7). Not only was he pitching like a superstar at such a young age, but he had a happy-go-lucky personality that endeared him to America so profoundly he made the cover of Time that August.

The aftermath — Blue was honored with opening the 1971 American League Championship Series against the Baltimore Orioles, who swept the A's in three games; Blue took a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the seventh, before an RBI single, an RBI double, and a 2-run double ended his afternoon in a 5-3 hole which held up. For 1972, however, Blue staged a contract holdout that would help bury the happy-go-lucky young man after Charlie Finley got through with him:

Well, I know you won 24 games. I know you led the league in earned run average. I know you had 300 strikeouts. I know you made the all-star team. I know you were the youngest to win the Cy Young Award and the MVP. I know all that. And if I was you, I would ask for the same thing. And you deserve it. But I ain't gonna give it to you.

It took commissioner Bowie Kuhn to step in as a kind of peacemaker, with Blue settling for $63,000 for 1972 after having asked for $100,000. (Finley was only willing to pay Blue $50,000 for 1972, exactly what he was paying the better-established Catfish Hunter.) Perhaps his original demand might have been somewhat unreasonable in that time and place, but clearly enough Finley had taken the wrong angle in dismissing it. Blue would go 6-10 in 1972 and, though he'd end up winning 209 games in a seventeen-season career, he'd never strike out as many as 200 hitters in a season again, would only finish in the top 10 four more times for a Cy Young Award (and higher than sixth once), and would become bitter and withdrawn according to several sources, even dealing with drug trouble — his would be among the troubling testimony in the 1985 Pittsburgh drug trials — before coming to terms with his career and life and becoming renowned around his adopted San Francisco Bay Area for charity work and baseball promotion.

Rollie Fingers, 1981 — A decade after Blue's twin award feat, his erstwhile Oakland teammate Fingers would turn the trick with the Milwaukee Brewers, when the Brewers were still in the American League. His 1.04 ERA and league-leading 28 saves in the strike-shortened season probably keyed the selection and may have helped secure his Hall of Fame jacket.

The aftermath — Fingers would save 29 in 1982 but gain a full run plus on his ERA; he'd pitched in pain most of the season and was forced to miss the Brewers' first postseason trip including the World Series, and he was likewise forced to sit out 1983. He came back in 1984 and 1985 with useful enough seasons that, when the Brewers released him, Pete Rose wanted him to sign with the Cincinnati Reds, whose owner Marge Schott had a no-facial-hair team policy, leading Fingers, reportedly, to answer that if she'd shave her famous St. Bernard, Schottzie, he'd shave his famous handlebar mustache. Fingers would also end up bankrupt thanks to sour investments and questionable business advice later in the 1980s (he joined the short-lived Senior Professional Baseball League as a pitcher, in fact; he was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1992) and later fought and won a Wisconsin claim over back taxes.

Willie Hernandez, 1984 — Hernandez had come up literally the hard way, a good if nothing spectacular pitcher who'd been laboring in Chicago and Philadelphia for eight seasons before the Tigers traded for him in spring training 1984. Hernandez thanked them with 32 saves in 68 games finished — and they weren't exactly single-inning saves, either (he pitched 140 1/3 innings in 80 appearances) and was one of the key men in the Tigers' World Series triumph.

The aftermath — He'd have two more reasonably comparable seasons, if not quite to his 1984 level, becoming known by his given name Guillermo Hernandez, before fading by the end of the decade.

Roger Clemens, 1986 — That 20-strikeout game only launched Clemens into the national consciousness with the Boston Red Sox; he finished 1986 as the American League's Cy Young and MVP winner with a league-leading 24 wins, 0.95 WHIP, 2.48 ERA, and 0.96 walks per nine.

The aftermath — Clemens went from there to post what would have been a Hall of Fame career even before he was said to have begun dabbling in actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances. It only began with his 1987 repeat as a Cy Young Award winner; he'd win a third Cy in 1991 and a fourth in 1997, the final two Cys believed to be free of taint in his case, though he'd go on to win a staggering three more. After his July 2011 trial for perjury (he was accused of lying to Congress) ended in a mistrial on day two over issues of prosecutorial misconduct, the year ended with indications that Clemens would be re-tried.

Conclusion — It's a little difficult to suggest that there's any kind of genuine followup jinx for any pitcher winning both the Cy Young Award and the Most Valuable Player award in the same season, unusual though the tandem honor may be.

Clearly, Don Newcombe and Vida Blue were never the same pitchers again beginning the season afterward, though in Newcombe's case there were non-baseball factors involved.

Clearly, Sandy Koufax wasn't just in his own league, he was somewhere about five dimensions beyond it.

Clearly, Charlie Finley's remarks in trying to keep Blue's 1972 salary demand in line had a devastating impact on a young man's psyche.

Clearly, Bob Gibson and Rollie Fingers had already racked impressive enough credentials going in, with Gibson going on to have a few more solid seasons (and one more Cy Young Award) and Fingers about to be compromised by injuries.

Clearly, Denny McLain got started on the right track (given the post-Year of the Pitcher rule changes) the year after he turned the tandem award trick only to veer dramatically away from that track right after that.

Clearly, Willie Hernandez's 1984 was something of a fluke season, though not by all that much given what his two seasons to come would be.

Clearly, Roger Clemens was well enough in his own league in enough seasons to come that his eventual suspicion for actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances would be seen as just what it is, a kind of unnecessary compromise to a career that remained amazing enough as the years went on from 1986.

And perhaps it should be clear enough that Justin Verlander will enter 2012 with at least a 50-50 chance of having a season equal to or close enough to his 2011, even if it turns out not to be one which gives him either or both awards.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 6:26 PM | Comments (0)

January 5, 2012

NFL Weekly Predictions: Wild Card

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-3)

Despite a 24-16 loss to the Ravens, the Bengals slipped into the playoffs, benefitting from losses by the Jets, Broncos, and Raiders. Cincinnati, which finished the season 9-7, will face 10-6 Houston, the AFC's No. 3 seed, who edged the Bengals 20-19 in Cincinnati in Week 14.

"We're 1-6 against teams with a winning record in 2011," Marvin Lewis said. "That can be a misleading statistic, especially for teams that have played us this year.

"But we're not complaining about losing and making the playoffs, and drawing the vulnerable Texans in the first round. Things really did fall into our laps. And for once here in Cincinnati, I condoned a 'lap' dance."

The Texans clinched the AFC South on December 11th, but have lost three straight since. Quarterback T.J. Yates was dinged up in last week's 23-22 loss to the Titans, but will be ready to go when the Texans host their first playoff game on Saturday.

"We can't be satisfied with simply winning the AFC South," Arian Foster said. "We've set our sights much higher. There are those who say that 'lofty goals' for the Texans is merely the hanging of our AFC South division championship banner high in the rafters of Reliant Stadium. I fully expect us to be playing in late January, or at least those of us that made the Pro Bowl.

"If Yates isn't healthy, we've got wily veteran Jake Delhomme waiting in the wings. I'd say Andre Johnson picked the wrong time to return. In Jake's last playoff start, he tossed 5 interceptions against the Cardinals. Off the field, Jake's known for raising exceptional horses. On the field, he's known for launching wounded ducks."

Yates shakes off the effects of a left shoulder injury, and manages the game well enough to carry out the Houston game plan, which is to keep the Cincy offense, and Delhomme, off the field. Wade Phillips re-energizes the Texans defense, which forces 2 turnovers that result in 10 Houston points.

Texans win, 26-19.

Detroit @ New Orleans (-10)

The 13-3 and third-seeded Saints host the Lions in a rematch of New Orleans' week 13 31-17 win in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. The Saints have scored 40 or more points in their last three games, led by Drew Brees, who passed for an NFL record 5,476 yards, including 46 touchdowns.

"If you hear 'Let's Go 'D,' chants arise from the stands," Sean Payton said, "it will only be because the fans didn't have time to spell out 'defense' before one of the offenses scored.

"But all it takes is one big play from a defender to turn a game around. No one knows that better than Ndamukong Suh. Usually, his big plays works in the favor of the opposing team. Ask anyone in New Orleans, and they'll tell you Suh's foot is no big deal. Tom Dempsey did more with half a foot than Suh will ever do with all of his. If the Lions think they can intimidate us, they're sadly mistaken. They've challenged us to an ultimatum — fight or flight. Judging by their pass defense, we'll choose 'flight.'"

The Lions lost a shootout in Green Bay, 45-41, as Matthew Stafford passed for 520 yards, but was outgunned by Packers backup Matt Flynn, who threw for 480 yards and 6 touchdowns. The loss dropped the Lions from the No. 5 seed to No. 6, so instead of facing the No. 4-seeded Giants, they'll see a tougher matchup against the No.3-seeded Saints.

"We realize we're the least popular item in New Orleans," Jim Schwartz said, "right behind the 2011 most valuable player vote.

"It appears our defense has adopted my short-fused persona and attitude. As Jim Harbaugh proved, I'm easily offended. As Flynn and the Packers proved, the Lions defense is easily offended, as well."

The Saints name former offensive lineman Kyle Turley "honorary loose cannon" for the pre-game festivities, and when Brees calls "heads" at the coin toss, Turley obliges, and sends Lions captain Dominic Riaola's helmet into orbit.

The New Orleans offensive line frustrates Suh early with double-teams and dirty tricks, like tying his shoelaces together. With ample time to pass, Brees throws for 352 yards and 3 touchdowns.

New Orleans wins 41-26, and Suh stomps off the field in disgust.

Atlanta @ NY Giants (-3)

The Giants toppled the Cowboys 31-14 to earn the NFC East title and a first-round home game at MetLife Stadium, as Eli Manning passed for 346 yards and the Giants defense sacked Tony Romo 6 times. New York will host the No. 5-seeded Falcons, who finished second in the NFC South behind the Saints.

"Justin Tuck used the term 'dirtbags' to describe the Falcons offensive line," Ton Coughlin said. "In light of the rest of the league's opinion of them, I'd say that was a compliment.

"But this game will be won at the line of scrimmage, or behind the line of scrimmage if Mike Smith feels frisky on fourth and one. We are at our best when our defensive line does its job, which means the rest of our defense doesn't have to do theirs."

Atlanta, who lost to New Orleans 45-16 in Week 16, avoided a rematch with the Saints when the Lions lost to the Packers. That moved the Falcons up to the No. 5 seed, whereas the No. 6 seed would have resulted in a trip to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

"There's the 'Big Easy,'" Matt Ryan said, "home of the 13-3 Saints. Then there's the 'Big Easier,' home of the 9-7 Giants. And there's the 'Big Easiest,' home of the 8-8 Broncos. We're happy with our matchup. Revenge on the Saints can wait, preferably to next season."

Tuck and Osi Umenyiora record 2 sacks apiece, and Eli Manning shakes off an early turnover and throws for 2 touchdowns.

New York wins, 30-24.

Pittsburgh @ Denver (+8)

The Broncos lost to the Chiefs 7-3 last week, but clinched the AFC West when the Raiders lost to the Chargers. Denver took the division based on a better record against common opponents, the third tiebreaker.

"Interestingly enough," Tebow said, "we won the division based on a better record against common opponents. We're only 8-8, so I'm guessing the Steelers like their chances against a 'common' opponent.

"But seriously, this game is a case of 'good versus bad.' And, despite Ben Roethlisberger's status as one of the NFL's least-popular players, it seems I'm still on the side of 'bad.'

"I know I need to improve in a hurry, lest we'll be out of the playoffs in a hurry, and I won't be the Denver starter next year. All of these 'Tebow In 2012' bumper stickers make it look as if I'm entering the presidential election. That can't be, because if I tried to throw my hat into the ring, it would undoubtedly be an incompletion. Or maybe it could happen, because if nothing more, I am a 'running' quarterback."

Ben Roethlisberger is still feeling the effects of a high ankle sprain in his left foot, and although his mobility will be compromised, his leadership skills won't be. Roethlisberger is 10-3 as a starter in the playoffs, including a 34-17 win over Jake Plummer and the Broncos in the 2005 AFC title game.

"That was the day I joined the 'Mile High Club,'" Roethlisberger said, "with a 'Mile High Chub.' Membership has its privileges, most notably favorable treatment in the legal system.

"But 'knockin' boots on heaven's door' aside,' I beat Plummer, and I'll beat Tebow. Plummer lived up to his nickname of the 'Snake.' Who else but a 'Snake' would give his own fans the finger? Tebow would never do that. Therein lies the contrast: with Plummer, it was 'go to hell'; with Tebow, it's 'come to Jesus.'"

The Steelers are aching — Roethlisberger's foot is not improving, and Rashard Mendenhall is out for the season with a knee injury. The Pittsburgh offense won't be dominating anyone, but their defense will. Indeed, James Harrison does believe in violence. The righteous Tebow does not believe in violence — he would never hit an intended receiver.

The Broncos defense keeps the team in the game early, but the Steel Curtain-ers force 3 Tebow turnovers, and pull away for victory.

Pittsburgh wins, 26-11.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:01 PM | Comments (0)

January 4, 2012

Why the 66-Game NBA Season Should Stay

Is there any professional league whose inception and conclusion are as opaque as the National Basketball Association? Football fits nicely into its September-to-January window. Baseball awakens in the Spring and resolves itself by Fall. The NBA, however, seems to always be going.

So when David Stern announced that the 2011-12 season would be an abridged, 66-game journey, I was intrigued. For the first time in ages, it seemed as though the NBA regular season would matter.

Even though 66 games are only 16 off the standard 82, the relevance of each contest appears to have grown exponentially (or at least by 19.5%). But this isn't the only reason I feel the NBA should take a long look at their modification-by-necessity and consider implementing it indefinitely. No, there are other major benefits to the shortened season.

For starters, I have always wondered by NBA players ever needed a two-game week. These are professional athletes being paid millions of dollars to entertain fans: entertain me. One of my favorite parts about baseball and football is that a fan hardly ever has to guess if his or her team is playing on any given day. It's safe to assume that your team will be playing daily during the MLB season (as teams generally play 6-7 games a week), while the once-weekly NFL keeps it simple.

The NBA, however, has long been the league of sifting through internet schedules in order to keep up.

This is where the 66-game season wins out. With anywhere between three to five games in the average week, fan interest can stay high throughout the entire campaign. There is rarely a stretch of four days without my favorite team playing a game — which allows me to feel a bit more connected.

Secondly, the hectic cluster of game after game after game better simulates what each team is working toward: the playoffs. I mentioned in my critique of the MLB postseason a few months back that the biggest issue with Major League Baseball is that teams are inexplicably asked to build a roster that can win a marathon and then somehow achieve success in the sprint of the playoffs.

It's always been the same in the NBA. After 82 games being played bi-weekly, teams are expected to turn up the juice for a series where games are played every other night? Please. This is why basketball is the sport where favorites seem to win most playoff series. Stars can coast through the regular season, only "turning it on" for marquee matchups, and save their energy to blowout Cinderella stories in the first and second round of the playoffs.

But now teams like the Heat, the Bulls, the Lakers, and the Spurs are being forced to put their playoff-level talent on display almost nightly. This has already accounted for some thrilling finishes and stunning displays of domination (see: Bulls/Lakers opening night, Miami's 39-point rout of Charlotte, et al). Nobody wants to watch LeBron James or Kobe Bryant lazily pocket 35 and 10; instead, this year's NBA has given us the joy of watching a fast-breaking James and Dwyane Wade wow the crowd with their speed; a gritty Ray Allen fight for every point in a Paul Pierce-less loss to the aforementioned Miami; a high-flying Blake Griffin scrape out 25 with jumpers complementing his flair. It has brought the regular season to life.

Lastly — and most importantly, in my mind — the shortened NBA season is finally going to reward teams for building solid rosters. One beef I've always had with basketball is it is truly the only major professional sport (MLB, NFL, NHL being the others — sorry soccer) where you can build around a roster of one (see: 2002 Philadelphia 76ers, 2004-2009 Cleveland Cavaliers) and still be one of the best.

Naturally, deeper teams (early 2000s Spurs, 2010 Dallas Mavs) always had a small advantage, but this handicap is only going to become more evident as the starting five of each team runs out of gas on a week-to-week basis. The Sixth Man Award will no longer be a novelty because teams are going to need sixth, seventh, eighth, and often ninth men to play more minutes this year than ever before.

Many people are probably saying, "Who wants to see Steve Novak instead of Carmelo Anthony though?" That's not what I'm necessarily saying. What I'm saying is that I want to watch great teams win games — not just great players.

All in all, professional basketball lost a lot of credibility this past offseason with the lockout. Whether the NBA likes it or not, it simply does not have the muscle of the NFL to endure player-owner dissatisfaction while maintaining fan support. However, the buzz of a shortened, rushed season has brought some fans back around to — if nothing else — see how the pros can keep up.

Between playing more frequently, forcing stars to show effort nightly, and reintroducing the concept of team basketball, the 66-game NBA season seems to be a great experiment — one that I assert should become the norm for years to come.

Posted by Louie Centanni at 7:08 PM | Comments (1)

Sports Central's 2011 NFL All-Pro Team

With the 2011 regular season over, it's time to honor this season's most outstanding players. This column exists to explain the reasons I chose certain players, or didn't take others, and to give recognition to those who just missed the list. If all you care about is who made the team, skip to the end and you'll find a list.

We name 13 players on offense and 13 on defense. With fullbacks playing ever smaller roles in the offense, a third wide receiver and second tight end are essential. On defense, we list three cornerbacks (everyone needs a good nickel back) and two each of defensive tackles and inside linebackers (accommodating both the 3-4 and 4-3).

Our choices are listed in order, so you'll know which receiver is third, which tight end is second, and so on.

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Last Year: Tom Brady (NE)

With all the attention paid to Drew Brees' (NO) conquest of the single-season record for passing yards, a number of people have suggested that Brees, not Rodgers, was the best quarterback and most valuable player in the NFL this season. That's what you get from spending too much time looking at stats and not enough time watching football.

Brees is a great quarterback, and he had a sensational year. But he's not Aaron Rodgers. I've even seen it suggested that because Matt Flynn played well in Week 17, we should downgrade our evaluations of Rodgers. Sure, anyone can post a 122.5 passer rating with that receiving corps. Green Bay does have sensational receivers. But Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore, Darren Sproles, and Devery Henderson aren't exactly chopped liver. And it's interesting that with so much hype for Brees and the yardage record, there's been so little for Rodgers, who broke the single-season record for passer rating.

It is my experience that there are very few sport fans who don't like stats. What most people mean when they say they don't like stats is that they don't like having to think about them. They want one easy, intuitive number to tell them who was best. Batting average. Rushing yards. Points. RBIs. Passing yards. Drew Brees threw for 5,476 yards this season, Rodgers for "only" 4,643 yards. But Brees threw 31% more passes than Rodgers, 657 to 502. Rodgers actually averaged almost a full yard more per pass attempt (9.25 yds/att) than Brees (8.33). The yardage stat measures opportunity much more than performance. Do we really want to reward Brees over Rodgers just because he threw a lot? I'm all for giving Brees credit for what he did. But consider some other numbers, too.

Who threw touchdowns more often? Rodgers (9%), not Brees (7%). What about interception percentage? Brees threw picks almost twice as often (2.1%) as Rodgers (1.2%). Brees actually committed more than twice as many turnovers this season (15-6). Brees finished with a great passer rating (110.6), but not as great as Rodgers (122.5). Rodgers out-rushed Brees by almost 200 yards and scored 3 rushing TDs to Brees' 1. Even if you go by stats, Rodgers is clearly ahead when you look at all of them.

One last stat, a figure I used to think was useless: yards per completion. I'm increasingly interested in this number as a rough "degree of difficulty" indicator. Anyone can throw a bunch of five yard screens, anyone can hit an open receiver. Great QBs separate themselves by completing long passes, or hitting the receiver in stride so he can gain yardage after the catch. Rodgers averaged 13.5 yards per completion, one of the highest figures in the NFL. Brees averaged 11.7, one of the lowest marks in that category.

Tom Brady and Brees were excellent this year, but Rodgers was the best. He made the most big plays and the fewest mistakes, and had one of the greatest seasons in history.

Running Back: Ray Rice (BAL)
Last Year: Arian Foster (HOU)

Going into Week 17, there were three strong candidates: LeSean McCoy (PHI), Foster, and Rice. McCoy and Foster sat out because of injuries, while Rice rushed for 191 yards and 2 touchdowns. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC), who led the league in rushing, deserves to be part of this conversation as well. But Rice, with his exceptional receiving contributions (76 rec, 704 yds, 3 TD), actually gained more yards and scored more touchdowns than Jones-Drew, with fewer fumbles.

McCoy earned Barry Sanders comparisons with his play this season. His vision and acceleration are what set McCoy apart. Foster scored double-digit TDs and trailed only Rice and Jones-Drew in yards from scrimmage, despite missing a quarter of the season with injuries. Jones-Drew was the one hero for what otherwise would rank among the worst offenses in modern history. Facing eight-man fronts, he still averaged 4.7 yards per carry and rushed for 1,606 yards.

But Rice was a fireball all season. He rushed for 1,364 yards with a 4.7 average, added 76 receptions for 704 yards, and scored a total of 15 TDs. He's quick, surprisingly tough, and a huge asset in the passing game. With Joe Flacco struggling through 2011, it was Rice who kept Baltimore's offense going. He was the first option and the safety valve, and he was explosive — a big-play guy. Rice led the NFL in rushes of 40 yards or more (5). Including two receptions of 40+, Rice had almost twice as many 40-yard plays from scrimmage (7) as any other RB (4) except Foster (5).

Fullback: Greg Jones (JAC)
Last Year: Marcel Reece (OAK)

For the second season in a row, Vonta Leach (BAL) is my runner-up. Leach is a purist's fullback, a battering-ram lead blocker who cleared the way for Arian Foster in 2010 and Ray Rice in 2011. But I have trouble looking beyond Jones this year. Foster is a star, with or without Leach in front of him, and while Rice surely benefitted from Leach's presence, his production wasn't at a much different level than in years past.

Jacksonville played basically the whole season without a passing game. Opponents knew the run was coming, knew all they had to do was get to Maurice Jones-Drew. And yet, playing with a nondescript offensive line, Jones-Drew led the league in rushing yards, maintaining a good average (4.7) despite the eight-man fronts. A lot of the credit goes to MJD himself, but a lot should go to Jones, too.

Wide Receiver: Calvin Johnson (DET), Wes Welker (NE), Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Last Year: Roddy White (ATL), Brandon Lloyd (DEN), Andre Johnson (HOU)

Before anything else, let's celebrate the awesomeness of Calvin Johnson's season. He caught 96 passes for 1,681 yards and 16 TDs. He led the league in receiving yardage by over 100, he led all wide receivers in scoring, and he tied for the most receiving first downs (77) of any player in the league. He's the first man to top 1,600 yards in a season since 2003, the first WR with more than 15 TDs in a season since Randy Moss in '07. Here's a partial list of contemporary receivers who've never had a season of 1,600 yards or 16 TDs: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Chad Ochocinco, Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward... The Lions led the NFL in pass attempts this year, and some people will discount Johnson's numbers because of that. I maintain they threw a lot because they have Calvin Johnson.

Megatron was clearly the best receiver in the league this season. The other two spots were tougher. This is often a difficult position at which to make selections, and this year was even harder than usual. I gave especially strong consideration to Victor Cruz (NYG) and Jimmy Graham (NO). Cruz had more catches, more yards, and more touchdowns than Fitzgerald. His 1,536 yards would have led the NFL last year. Cruz went over 100 yards seven times this season, more than anyone but Welker and Megatron.

But Cruz played on a passing team with a good quarterback. The Giants' offensive line played well most of the year, and opponents had to respect the run based on past production, if not present. For most of the season, defenses concentrated on stopping Hakeem Nicks and Ahmad Bradshaw, not Cruz. Fitzgerald was the Cardinals' only weapon, and every opponent knew that. Nicks gained almost 1,200 yards, caught only 6 passes fewer than Cruz. Fitzgerald had more than twice as many receiving yards as the next-highest player on his team.

Jimmy Graham had a fantastic year. His size (6-6, 260) and athleticism make him almost a unique threat, a player safeties can't cover and cornerbacks can't tackle. He caught 99 passes this season as a part-time player. Graham ranked 3rd in the NFL in receptions, 4th in receiving first downs and receiving TDs, and 7th in receiving yards. But all those accomplishments came with the help of Drew Brees' record-setting year. Fitzgerald caught passes from John Skelton and Kevin Kolb.

Just by the numbers, Welker is a slam dunk: 122 catches, 1,569 yards, 9 TDs, 77 first downs. But notice that Welker caught 45 passes that did not make a first down. That's an astounding number for a wide receiver. Calvin Johnson and Fitzgerald caught just 19 balls each that didn't go for a first down. Cruz had 23, Graham 25, Steve Smith 26. Apart from Welker, the 1,000-yard receiver with the most non-first down receptions was Buffalo's Stevie Johnson (31). This is the argument against Welker: 99-yard reception notwithstanding, he's not explosive. He doesn't make big plays.

There's some truth to that. But a first down is a big play, and Welker made as many first downs as anybody. He made 21 receptions of 20 yards or more, 6th-most in the league. He caught 9 touchdown passes, more than Fitzgerald or Cruz or Mike Wallace or Roddy White. He had eight 100-yard receiving games, tied with Calvin Johnson for most in the league. And he caught 122 of Tom Brady's 611 passes this season, 20%. Welker accounted for more than 30% of the Patriots' completions this season. He was the one who kept drives going, the one who kept defenses off-balance to accomodate the long passes to other players. I'd rather reward Welker for his many good plays than punish him for the catches that didn't go anywhere.

Tight End: Rob Gronkowski (NE), Tony Gonzalez (ATL)
Last Year: Jason Witten (DAL), Antonio Gates (SD)

Let's start here: Jimmy Graham is not a tight end. Yes, he's huge. Graham is tight end-sized. But tight ends block sometimes. Gronkowski and Gonzalez block. Witten and Gates block. Even Dallas Clark blocks sometimes. Graham is just a wide receiver who happens to weigh 260 pounds. Hall of Fame DT Alan Page weighed just 225 when he retired in 1978. Does that make Page a linebacker? A fat chihuahua is not a Great Dane, and Graham is not a tight end. I'd love to have him on my team as a wide receiver; he was one of the best players in the league this year. I'm not picking him here for the same reason I never listed Mike Alstott as a fullback. Graham doesn't do what a tight end does; he does what a wide receiver does.

The same cannot be said of Gronkowski. No one will ever confuse Gronk with Brandon Manumaleuna, but he can and does block, and he's a tremendous receiver. Gronkowski had an ever better receiving season than Graham: 90 rec, 1,327 yds, 17 TD. Far too much has been made of this, but those yardage and TD totals are single-season records for a tight end. Like Graham, Gronkowski gets open, has good hands, and is a terror to bring down. The difference is that Gronk shows an interest in blocking.

Gonzalez just signed a $7 million contract extension to play in 2012. He's still playing at a high level: 80 catches, 875 yards, 7 TDs, 53 first downs, doesn't come off the field in blocking situations. When Roddy White struggled early in the season, Gonzalez was there. When Julio Jones got hurt, Gonzalez was there. He's Matt Ryan's Wes Welker, first and foremost a guy you can count on. Every year, I'm surprised that Gonzalez remains an elite tight end. I should probably know better by now.

Center: Nick Mangold (NYJ)
Last Year: Jeff Saturday (IND)

This was a disappointing season for interior offensive line play. Normally, there are several guards and a center or two who really blow me away. This year, it seemed like everyone missed some plays. Mangold actually missed several games. The Jets went 0-2 without him, compared to 8-6 with Mangold in the lineup. He hasn't played at the same level he did a couple years ago, but with relatively thin competition, Mangold is probably still the best choice. I also like Ryan Kalil (CAR) and Dominic Raiola (DET). I still don't understand the hype for Maurkice Pouncey (PIT). He's a fine player, but the best at his position? I don't see it.

Guard: Carl Nicks (NO), Jahri Evans (NO)
Last Year: Josh Sitton (GB), Carl Nicks (NO)

Nicks and Evans regularly draw praise during television broadcasts, a rarity for offensive linemen, and while they probably don't deserve so much more positive attention than other linemen, they do stand out in a good way. Chris Snee (NYG) had some really good games, especially toward the end of the season, but that shouldn't cloud his uneven play earlier in the year, and he's started to draw a lot of penalties. It was nice to see Brian Waters (NE) back among the best in the league, but his linemate Logan Mankins (NE) seemed to slip a bit this season. I suspect he'll bounce back.

Offensive Tackle: Jason Peters (PHI), Andrew Whitworth (CIN)
Last Year: Jason Peters (PHI), Charlie Johnson (IND)

The AFC Pro Bowlers at this position are the same as last year: Jake Long (MIA), Joe Thomas (CLE), and D'Brickashaw Ferguson (NYJ). Are we supposed to believe that these teams are among the worst offenses in the NFL despite the outstanding play of their left tackles? Long is the best of the three, while Ferguson isn't even the best lineman on his own team. Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene haven't impressed a whole lot of people, but if the Jets really have good receivers and one of the best offensive lines in the league, shouldn't their offense be more productive?

I'd rather see recognition for Michael Roos (TEN) and Whitworth. The absolute standout at this position, though, is Peters. I've been complaining ever since Jon Ogden and Willie Roaf retired that there are no dominant offensive tackles any more. I can't say that this year. Peters has been fantastic. He's a very good pass-blocker, but where he's really separated himself is with run-blocking. Peters routinely drives his man five yards off the ball, clears alleys, gets to the second level. Best in the game.

Defensive Tackle: Brett Keisel (PIT), Calais Campbell (ARI)
Last Year: Ndamukong Suh (DET), B.J. Raji (GB)

This is sort of cheating. Keisel and Campbell are defensive ends. Thirteen teams use a 3-4 as their base defense, meaning there are 64 starting DEs and about 45 starting DTs. But a 3-4 end usually has responsibilities and skills very similar to those of a 4-3 tackle; many defensive linemen can play both positions well. So I'm listing Keisel and Campbell with the interior defensive linemen. Campbell ranked 3rd among all linemen in tackles (72, including 53 solo), including 8 sacks. He intercepted 1 pass and deflected 10 others. He forced 2 fumbles and recovered 1. That's an amazing line for a position that doesn't normally produce big statistics.

Keisel missed a couple games, and he doesn't have the same stats. But look at the Steelers' defense, which led the NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed. James Harrison and Lamar Woodley missed a combined 11 games. Troy Polamalu had an off season. Aaron Smith and Chris Hoke went on IR. Keisel is one of the constants on this great defense. He and Casey Hampton set things up front for everyone else to succeed.

If you insist on 4-3 DTs, I like Geno Atkins (CIN) and Cullen Jenkins (PHI). The Packers really miss Jenkins.

Defensive End: Jared Allen (MIN), Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)
Last Year: Julius Peppers (CHI), Jared Allen (MIN)

Allen, of course, came within 0.5 of a sack of tying the official record set by Michael Strahan in 2001. Allen also caused 4 fumbles, recovered 4, intercepted a pass, and scored a safety. Yeah, I'd say that deserves All-Pro recognition.

Pierre-Paul led all defensive linemen in tackles this season. He finished the regular season with 65 solo tackles, 16.5 sacks, a safety, and a blocked field goal. One of the most exceptional athletes at his position, JPP presents opponents with the same kind of problems the best tight ends do now. He's too fast to contain or avoid, too strong to overpower, and too big to do anything about. Health permitting, he should remain among the best defensive players in the league for a long time. Comparisons to Julius Peppers wouldn't be amiss.

Jason Babin (PHI) contributed 18 sacks in his first season with the Eagles, and I'm sure he'll receive a lot of All-Pro support. I saw Philadelphia 10 times this season, so I've seen a lot of Babin. But the thing is, I haven't seen that much of Babin. Trent Cole (PHI) was the one who impressed me. Babin would make a big play every once in a while, but in between he would just disappear. This shows up in the stats. Babin's sacks constituted half of his tackles this season, just 35 solo. Compare that to Pierre-Paul (65) or Allen (48) or Cole (42).

This is not Babin's first good season; I praised him in this same space last year, so I'm not trying to suggest his performance was a fluke or imply that he's not talented. But are Babin's 2 extra sacks worth more than Pierre-Paul's 30 extra tackles? Obviously not. One is an effective sack specialist, while the other is a looming menace to every opposing offense.

Besides Allen, Pierre-Paul, and Babin, the players who impressed me most at this position were Cole (who sacked opposing QBs 11 times in just 14 games) and Chris Clemons (SEA). The Seahawks quietly had a great year on defense this season, ranking among the top 10 in yards allowed, points allowed, and takeaways. Seattle was only middle of the pack in sacks, with 33, but 11 of them came from Clemons. This was just his second season as a starter, and he's had double-digit sacks in both of them.

Outside Linebacker: Terrell Suggs (BAL), Clay Matthews III (GB)
Last Year: James Harrison (PIT), Clay Matthews III (GB)

I feel like we're back in the '80s, when pass-rushing outside linebackers routinely took over games. Players like Lawrence Taylor and Andre Tippett were game-changers, the dominant defensive forces of their era. With more teams employing 3-4 defenses, and the ever-increasing emphasis on disrupting the opponent's passing game, the sack-specialist OLB is once again a star on many defenses. In this environment, it was painful choosing just two players to represent the position.

James Harrison (PIT), when he's on the field, is as good as anyone. He's most famous for terrorizing quarterbacks (and getting fined by the league), but he also plays the run and is a good pass defender when he drops into coverage. Harrison missed 5 games due to injury or suspension, though, and this position is too competitive to select someone who missed so much time.

Tamba Hali (KC) was the Chiefs' only legit pass rusher. He recorded more than twice as many sacks (12) as any of his teammates, actually had as many sacks as the team's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th-leading sackers combined. When your opponent doesn't have to worry about anyone else, stopping one guy is supposed to be easy. Hali forced 4 fumbles and helped keep this defense respectable.

I've always liked DeMarcus Ware (DAL). To me, he's already a Hall of Famer. In just seven seasons, he has 99.5 sacks and 27 forced fumbles. Since his rookie season of 2005, only 11 players have 15 sacks in a season, and only two have done it more than once: Jared Allen twice, and Ware three times. He was my Defensive Player of the Year in 2007, and that wasn't even one of the 15-sack seasons. This year, Ware was 2nd in the NFL in sacks (19.5). But he disappeared at times, especially towards the end of the season, and to my way of thinking, the explosive moments didn't make up for the inconsistency. You can't neutralize an All-Pro (you can only hope to contain him!).

All those players had good seasons, and so did several others not listed here. But the best were Suggs and Matthews. Suggs sacked opposing quarterbacks more often than any other two Ravens combined, setting a single-season career high (14) in his ninth year. He led the NFL in forced fumbles (7), intercepted 2 passes, and deflected 6 others. With Ed Reed having a quiet year and Ray Lewis fading into the twilight, Suggs was the playmaker on Baltimore's defense.

I'm sure some people think it's crazy to choose Matthews, who only had 6 sacks and played on the sieve-like Green Bay defense, as an All-Pro. That much-maligned defense led the league in interceptions, and Matthews contributed 3 of them. Since realignment, how many linebackers have had 6 sacks and 3 picks in the same season? Three. Joey Porter (2002), Mike Peterson (2005), and Matthews.

As the only pass-rushing threat on the team, Matthews had to deal with frequent double-teams, and his coaches adjusted by dropping him into coverage more often. Matthews responded with three INTs, including one returned for a touchdown, and 9 other pass deflections. His total of 12 passes defensed led all OLBs, including those like Lance Briggs (CHI) who usually drop into coverage rather than rushing the quarterback. Essentially, Matthews combined great pass coverage skills with his threatening rushing ability. Ask opposing quarterbacks and right tackles if this guy had a down year.

Inside Linebacker: Brian Cushing (HOU), London Fletcher (WAS)
Last Year: Jerod Mayo (NE), Jonathan Vilma (NO)

Patrick Willis (SF) missed the final three games of the season. At a competitive position, that alone hurts your All-Pro case. But with NaVorro Bowman (SF) and Larry Grant filling in, the 49ers didn't miss a beat — and that absolutely kills your All-Pro chances. In 13 games, Willis accounted for 2 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 2 recoveries, an interception, and 12 other passes defensed.

Derrick Johnson (KC) had the same kind of season. With 104 solo tackles, a pair of sacks, 2 picks, and 9 PDs, he proved that last year's career resurgence was no fluke. Johnson is still reasonably young (29), and once again looks to have a bright career ahead of him. The guy it killed me to leave off, though, was Brian Urlacher (CHI). With 3 INTs and 2 fumble recoveries, he was a turnover machine, trailing only Sean Lee (DAL) among linebackers. Sometimes fans forget that Urlacher was a safety in college. He still has those coverage skills, and even now, he's unusually quick for the position.

Two years ago, Cushing was a slam-dunk All-Pro as a rookie outside linebacker. Last season, suspended for a quarter of the season and adjusting to a new position, his level of play dropped sharply. This year, he was back in form as a 3-4 ILB. Cushing's game is defined by versatility. He can rush the passer (4 sacks), drop into coverage (2 INT), and play the run (76 solo tkl). Houston's defensive improvement in 2011 has been attributed mostly to Wade Phillips and Johnathan Joseph, and they both deserve praise, but Cushing's resurgence was a major factor, as well.

Fletcher is simply a marvel. He's credited with leading the NFL in tackles, which is a bit dodgy, because his 96 solo tackles actually rank 6th, and assist numbers are not 100% trustworthy. But either way, he's very near the top of the league. Fletcher remains a fine pass defender (10 PD, including 2 INT) and a big hitter (3 FF), and he's a veteran leader with intangibles every bit as solid as Urlacher's.

Cornerback: Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Lardarius Webb (BAL), Johnathan Joseph (HOU)
Last Year: Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Charles Woodson (GB), Brent Grimes (ATL)

By reputation, the Jets have a great defense. That's not entirely true. The Jets have Darrelle Revis. With several key players leaving the team or declining, the Jets actually ranked 20th this season in points allowed. But they were 3rd in opponents' passer rating (69.6), less than a point off the league lead. This despite a pass rush that was only average (33 sacks, t-17th). Revis combines smothering coverage with good ball skills (4 INT, 184 yds, TD) and solid tackling. He was the only standout on the Jets' exceptional pass defense in 2011.

Two teams that struggled defensively in 2010 ranked among the best in the NFL in 2011, thanks partially to free agent cornerbacks who made a big impact. During his six seasons in Washington, Carlos Rogers (SF) was known for dropping interceptions. This year, in San Francisco, he finally held on (6 INT, 106 yds, TD), and the Niners went from an average defense to one of the best in the league. Joseph helped turn the league's worst pass defense (4,280 yards and 100.5 passer rating allowed) into one of its best (3,035 yards, 69.0 rating).

When Webb was injured for the Ravens' Week 15 matchup against San Diego, the team allowed a season-high 34 points. The following game, Webb intercepted a pass and knocked down 3 more, as the Ravens gave up just 14 points and held serve in the competitive AFC North. Webb finished the season with 54 solo tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, 20 pass deflections, and 5 INTs for 81 yards and a touchdown. His 25 total PDs tied Revis for 3rd-most in the NFL.

Other corners worth mentioning: Brandon Browner (SEA), Brandon Flowers (KC), Ike Taylor (PIT), Tramon Williams (GB).

Free Safety: Eric Weddle (SD)
Last Year: Ed Reed (BAL)

This is Reed's 10th NFL season. Three times, he's missed four or more games due to injury. Among the other seven, this was his career-low in interceptions (3), and the first time since his rookie year that he failed to score a touchdown. It's not that Reed is a bad player now, but he just didn't have the same impact as usual.

Weddle has been among the best at this position for years. I've never named him All-Pro or voted for him to go to the Pro Bowl, but Weddle was an All-Pro candidate last year, and he's mentioned in my annual Pro Bowl discussion each of the last four seasons. This year, he finally made it to the top. Weddle tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (7), deflected 12 other passes, and made 70 solo tackles.

Ryan Clark (PIT), Thomas DeCoud (ATL), and Dashon Goldson (SF) also had nice years. I'm not as impressed by Earl Thomas (SEA) as most people seem to be.

Strong Safety: Kam Chancellor (SEA)
Last Year: Troy Polamalu (PIT)

This is the kind of season that makes me wish I chose All-Pros like the Associated Press: two safeties, never mind which position they play. Adrian Wilson and Polamalu were a little off their games. George Wilson (BUF) got hurt. Roman Harper (NO) can't cover.

Chancellor's coverage stats (16 PD, including 4 INT) are outstanding for a strong safety. Playing just his second season, Chancellor this year became a starter and played a major role in Seattle's defensive improvement. The Seahawks this year intercepted 22 passes and allowed just 18 passing TDs, tying the Ravens and Jets for best INT/TD differential (-4) of any team in the NFL. Chancellor led the team in solo tackles (75) and trailed only Brandon Browner in INTs.

Kicker: Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)
Last Year: Billy Cundiff (BAL)

When Neil Rackers broke the single-season field goal record in 2005, I voted for him as my All-Pro kicker. The game has changed. Teams are attempting, and making, more long field goals than ever before. Field goals of 50 yards or more:

For four consecutive seasons, teams have attempted over 100 field goals of 50+, and made at least 55. This year, both numbers jumped to totally unprecedented levels. A great kicker isn't just expected to be accurate, he's expected to give his team scoring chances even from far outside the red zone. I had four finalists for this position, and all of them made at least five field goals from 50 yards or beyond.

The first one I cut was David Akers (SF), who broke Rackers' record and scored the 4th-most points of any season in history, the most ever by a player who didn't score any touchdowns. Akers was 31/32 from inside 40 yards. That's great, but how much credit should Akers get for making 31 field goals at a range that should be almost automatic? NFL teams made 92.1% of their field goals from that range this season, a little lower than Akers (96.9%), but that's a difference of three points. Those 31 field goals were about good field position and poor red zone offense. Akers broke the record more because of unique opportunity than distinctive skill. This got much less press than the other record, but Akers also broke the mark for most field goals attempted in a season. He had a great year, but I don't believe he was the best kicker in the league.

The other finalists were all hard to evaluate, for different reasons. Josh Scobee (JAC) played on a terrible offense that rarely even put him in position to try a kick. He attempted less than half as many field goals (25) as Akers (52). Janikowski had two kicks blocked, which is sometimes the line's fault, sometimes the kicker's, and sometimes a little of both. He also missed one game with a hamstring issue, and was gimpy for a couple others. Robbie Gould (CHI) was a perfect 6/6 from 50+, and only 6/10 from 40-49. How does that happen?

Ultimately, I went with Janikowski. He began the season with a record-tying 63-yard field goal in Denver, he didn't miss anything under 40 yards, and two of his four misses were blocked, one from 49 yards and the other 65. The remaining misses were a 59-yarder that bounced off the crossbar, a game in which Janikowski made the winning kick in overtime, and a 56-yard attempt in a win over the Jets. That's nothing to be ashamed of. Fully 20% of Janikowski's field goals this season were from 50 or beyond, 7/35.

Punter: Zoltan Mesko (NE)
Last Year: Steve Weatherford (NYJ)

This was not a great year for punters. No one stood out the way Weatherford did last season. That said, Mesko did a lot of things well. His 41.5 net average ranked 3rd in the NFL, behind only Andy Lee (SF) and Thomas Morstead (NO). Lee, though, was just a bomber. He kicked way too many touchbacks (9), and most of his kicks got returned — no directional kicking or hang time, no finesse. Morstead was better, but he rarely had to deal with a short field, and like Lee, he had problems pinning the opponent deep. There are so many variables that affect punting average, and ratio of touchbacks (TB) to punts down inside the 20 (I-20) is one of the few ways for a punter to demonstrate his skill.

Lee and Morstead also have the benefit of kicking in friendly environs. San Francisco isn't the easiest place in the league to kick, but it certainly isn't the hardest, while Morstead plays in a dome. Mesko had home games in cold, windy Massachusetts. Ultimately, my choice came down to Mesko over T.J. Conley (NYJ).

Conley was among the league's most aggressive and accurate punters pinning opponents deep, with a remarkable 15 kicks down inside the 10. Conley also did a great job of preventing returns, leading the league in fair catches (31). Mesko gets the edge simply for distance. There's nearly a three-yard gap between his net average (41.5) and Conley's (38.8), and hang time isn't enough to discount that.

Just for the record, because I know people insist he's great, Shane Lechler tied for 29th in fair catches and had an even worse I-20:TB ratio than Lee.

Kick Returner: Patrick Peterson (ARI)
Last Year: Devin Hester (CHI)

I came thisclose to going with Ted Ginn, Jr. (SF) over both Peterson and Hester. No, I'm not crazy. Let's break this down, Ginn vs. Peterson and Ginn vs. Hester.

Peterson led the NFL in punt return yardage (699) and tied the single-season record for punt return TDs (4). He averaged 15.9 yards per return, compared to a league average of 9.9, meaning Peterson gave his team an advantage of about 264 yards compared to an average returner. That's sensational. Ginn averaged 12.3 yards per punt return, 4th-best in the NFL and a 91-yard advantage compared to average, with 1 TD. But Ginn was also among the best kickoff returners, with a 27.6 average (+110) and another TD. And unlike Peterson, Ginn didn't fumble, whereas Peterson dropped the ball three times.

Let's subtract 50 yards from Peterson's +264 comparison to average, for the lost fumble. That leaves him at +214, with 4 TDs. Adding his kickoff and punt returns, Ginn checks in at +201 with 2 TDs. That's actually pretty close, right?

So how about Hester? He actually had an even better punt return average than Peterson, 16.2, though with many fewer returns (44-28), he only added 176 yards compared to average, and he actually fumbled 4 punt returns, though he recovered them all. Hester also returned kickoffs, including one for a touchdown, but his KR average (21.9) was actually two yards worse than the league as a whole (23.8). Hester actually gained 63 yards fewer than you'd expect from an average returner. We can probably attribute that at least partially to opponents kicking away from him, but it's tough to view his kickoff returning as a positive for Hester.

So let's just forget about the kickoff yardage, though we'll let Hester keep his KR TD. That leaves him at +176, with 3 TDs. I don't see how that's obviously superior to Ginn's +201 with 2 scores. They're in the same neighborhood. But after all that, I'm sticking with Peterson. I'm not going to be the moron who doesn't appreciate one of the greatest punt return seasons in history.

Special Teamer: N/A
Last Year: N/A

I don't name a special teams ace, but Corey Graham (CHI) and Kassim Osgood (JAC) are still two of my favorites.

Five players repeat from my 2010 all-pro team: Carl Nicks, Jason Peters, Jared Allen, Clay Matthews, and Darrelle Revis.

Offensive Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Last Year: Tom Brady (NE)

No point looking past the obvious.

Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen (MIN)
Last Year: Ndamukong Suh (DET)

It's tough to look at Minnesota's defense, 31st in points allowed, and think anyone from that unit was the most exceptional defensive player in the NFL. But Allen probably was. Darrelle Revis (NYJ) had some tough games, especially Week 12 against the Bills, when he was repeatedly beaten by Stevie Johnson. Allen had 50% more sacks than Terrell Suggs (BAL), actually 57% more. He came within ½-sack of the single-season record without a lot of help from his teammates, and he contributed in every phase of defense.

Most Valuable Player: Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Last Year: Tom Brady (NE)

My top 10 ballot:

1) Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
2) Drew Brees, QB, NO
3) Tom Brady, QB, NE
4) Ray Rice, RB, BAL
5) Cam Newton, QB, CAR
6) Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
7) Clay Matthews, LB, GB
8) Rob Gronkowski, TE, NE
9) Darrelle Revis, CB, NYJ
10) Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC

You've probably heard that the 15-1 Packers allowed more yards this year than they gained. You can't judge teams, or players, just by yardage.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Cam Newton (CAR)
Last Year: Maurkice Pouncey (PIT)

There were three standout offensive rookies this season: A.J. Green (CIN), Andy Dalton (CIN), and Newton. Green gained over 1,000 yards and became the first rookie wideout to make a Pro Bowl since Anquan Boldin in 2003. Dalton took over for Carson Palmer and played mostly like a veteran, passing for 3,400 yards, with 7 more TDs than INTs, and leading the Bengals to the playoffs.

But Newton is a revolution. He threw for 4,051 yards, a rookie record, and ran for 706 more. He threw 21 TD passes and rushed for another 14. He took over an offense that ranked last in the NFL by a huge margin, and directed it to the 5th-highest total in the league. He's had one of the most incredible rookie seasons in history.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Patrick Peterson (ARI)
Last Year: Ndamukong Suh (DET)

The last thing I did was change this selection. I had it all written out, with Aldon Smith (SF), who had 14 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, and a safety, edging out fellow pass rushers Von Miller (DEN) and Ryan Kerrigan (WAS). Miller contributed 11 sacks and 2 FF, Kerrigan 7.5 sacks, 4 FF, and an interception. Jabaal Sheard (CLE) also showed promise, with 8.5 sacks and 5 FF.

I'm taking Peterson because I'm taking a stand for special teams. There is no Special Teams Rookie of the Year — and if there were, punter Matt Bosher (ATL) would merit serious consideration — so most people just ignore returning. It didn't used to be that way. For decades, everyone was evaluated as a player, and All-Pro defensive backs were often chosen as much for their returning as their pass coverage. Now we break everything down.

Well, not this time. Peterson was a more exceptional player than Aldon Smith, so he's my choice. Plenty of rookie defenders had nice years. Muhammad Wilkerson (NYJ) played well on the Jets' defensive line, and Richard Sherman (SEA) defensed 21 passes, by far the most of any rookie. But ultimately, this was about Peterson — who tied Jack Christiansen, Rick Upchurch, and Devin Hester for most punt return TDs in a season — over Smith. The best of the pure defenders, Smith is a part-time player, a situational pass rusher, but he has the biggest numbers, and he provided big plays for a defense that got a lot better this year. Adding a rookie with 14 sacks will do that.

Did he provide more impact than a 16-game starter at cornerback, who intercepted 2 passes and scored 4 return TDs? Remember when I mentioned that Peterson gained 264 more yards on his returns than an average returner? Were Smith's sacks worth 264 yards? Patrick Peterson is my Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Coach of the Year: Jim Harbaugh (SF)
Last Year: Bill Belichick (NE)

Ugh, this feels like joining the Dark Side, drinking the Kool-Aid. I wanted to go with Mike McCarthy (GB), whose team went 15-1 and has a good chance to win its second straight Super Bowl. McCarthy might even deserve extra credit because he's basically his own offensive coordinator. The Packers run a slightly unorthodox offense — not Tim Tebow unorthodox, but more wide-open, more vertical than most — and McCarthy is its architect.

No one's talking about Belichick this season, but come on, the team is 13-3, accomplishing unique things from a two-tight end offense and overcoming a slew of injuries on defense. Gary Kubiak (HOU) has played various portions of the year without Matt Schaub (missed 6 games), Arian Foster (3), Andre Johnson (9), and Mario Williams (11). Teams have collapsed from much less, but the Texans held on to win the AFC South.

Harbaugh, though, completely turned around the 49ers, taking them from 6-10 to 13-3, with a first-round bye and a home playoff game. I'm turned off by the hype, and I'm not convinced he should win this over McCarthy, but Harbaugh has certainly done a hell of a job.

Assistant Coach of the Year: Dick LeBeau (PIT)
Last Year: Dom Capers (GB)

There are lots of strong candidates this season, and this is my tie-breaker: I've never chosen LeBeau before. He's been in the running just about every year, and I've always taken someone else. The Steeler defense repeatedly overcame injuries, leading the league in both yards allowed and points allowed for the third time in the last eight years.

Pete Carmichael Jr. (NO) was Drew Brees' quarterback coach in 2006, promoted to offensive coordinator when Doug Marrone left for Syracuse. I'd say Carmichael has done a pretty good job this year, directing an offense that broke the 1951 Rams' record for yards per game. Much the same can be said of Bill O'Brien (NE), who could be a hot head coaching candidate this offseason, and Rob Chudzinski (CAR), who oversaw Cam Newton and the incredible offensive turnaround in Carolina.

Defensively, you look at Vic Fangio (SF), Wade Phillips (HOU), Gus Bradley (SEA), and LeBeau. Bradley is the surprise in the bunch, but he did a terrific job integrating a lot of young players and getting the unit to gel.

2011 All-Pro Team

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB
RB Ray Rice, BAL
FB Greg Jones, JAC
WR Calvin Johnson, DET
WR Wes Welker, NE
WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
TE Rob Gronkowski, NE
TE Tony Gonzalez, ATL
C Nick Mangold, NYJ
G Carl Nicks, NO
G Jahri Evans, NO
OT Jason Peters, PHI
OT Andrew Whitworth, CIN

DT Brett Keisel, PIT
DT Calais Campbell, ARI
DE Jared Allen, MIN
DE Jason Pierre-Paul, NYG
OLB Terrell Suggs, BAL
OLB Clay Matthews III, GB
ILB Brian Cushing, HOU
ILB London Fletcher, WAS
CB Darrelle Revis, NYJ
CB Lardarius Webb, BAL
CB Johnathan Joseph, HOU
FS Eric Weddle, SD
SS Kam Chancellor, SEA

K Sebastian Janikowski, OAK
P Zoltan Mesko, NE
KR Patrick Peterson, ARI

Off POY — Aaron Rodgers, GB
Def POY — Jared Allen, MIN
MVP — Aaron Rodgers, GB
Off Rookie — Cam Newton, CAR
Def Rookie — Patrick Peterson, ARI
Coach — Jim Harbaugh, SF
Assistant — Dick LeBeau, PIT

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:39 PM | Comments (0)

January 3, 2012

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Best announcers this season: Mike Mayock, Dan Fouts, and Mike Tirico.

* If you took the 20 best highlights of this season, I bet two or three of them are Julio Jones. The Falcons gave up a lot to get him, and it looks to have been worth it.

* Super Bowl XLVI: Green Bay Packers over New England Patriots. Boring prediction, I know.

* This year's worst Pro Bowl selections were all in the AFC. Ray Lewis, Dwight Freeney, Champ Bailey, and Antonio Gates would all be great choices ... if this was 2006. The punter and offensive tackles also have no business going to Hawaii.

* Biggest snubs: There are a lot of guys you could make an argument for, but let's start with Bengals OT Andrew Whitworth and Houston LB Brian Cushing. I thought those two were slam dunks.

***

Two veteran running backs reached major career plateaus this weekend. LaDainian Tomlinson passed Jerome Bettis for 5th place on the all-time rushing list, and Ricky Williams became the 26th player to top 10,000 career rushing yards.

The difference in the quality of LT's career and Bettis' illustrates the problem of judging RBs mostly by their career yardage. Tomlinson and Bettis have roughly the same amount of rushing yardage, true. But Tomlinson needed only 3,174 carries, giving him a 4.3 average, while Bettis used 3,479 carries (3.9 avg). Basically, that's 300 plays Bettis wasted compared to Tomlinson. LT has 4,772 receiving yards, compared to 1,449 for the Bus. Tomlinson has scored 162 touchdowns to Bettis' 94, with 31 fumbles, versus 41 for Bettis.

That's 3,000 receiving yards, 68 TDs, 10 fumbles, and 0.4 average per carry advantage for Tomlinson. He's in a totally different league than Bettis. But if the only stat you look at is career rushing yardage, they're the same player.

Ricky Williams has obviously had an unusual career. From the Heisman Trophy, to the Saints trading their whole draft for him, and his bizarre rookie contract negotiated by Master P, Williams entered the NFL with an enormous amount of hype. He played well, but struggled with injuries and anxiety before another blockbuster trade sent him to Miami. There Williams had his breakout season, 2002, when he led the league in rushing (1,853) and scored 18 TDs. Carrying an enormous workload that year and the next, Williams retired on the eve of the 2004 season, influenced by an impending drug-related suspension.

His decision was praised and vilified and mocked and dissected. When Williams returned to the Dolphins almost two years later, the expectations were gone. And Williams settled in as a productive back, averaging over four yards a carry every season since his return, rushing for 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns in 2009, and adding over 400 yards in relief of Ray Rice this year in Baltimore. Most fans won't remember Williams as a great back, and he'll never be a Hall of Famer, but he's overcome a lot to become one of the most productive players ever at his position, and I don't think most people realize the kind of career he's put together.

These are the final power rankings of the 2011 season, aimed at evaluating each team's current strength. If you want an overall snapshot of the whole season, check the standings. Brackets show last week's rank.

1. Green Bay Packers [1] — Out of all 32 teams, the Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers have the most storied history at quarterback. The Niners had Frankie Albert, Y.A. Tittle, John Brodie, Joe Montana, Steve Young, even Jeff Garcia. The Packers begin with Curly Lambeau, moving on to Arnie Herber and Cecil Isbell, Tobin Rote and Bart Starr, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. With all those great Packer QBs, backup quarterback Matt Flynn now holds single-game franchise records for passing yardage (480) and TDs (6).

2. New Orleans Saints [2] — Set all-time single-season records for offensive yardage (7,474), yards per game (467.1, shattering a 50-year-old record), first downs (416), and passing yards (5,347). Which new individual record is likely to last longer, Drew Brees' much ballyhooed passing yardage record, or the prestigious single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end, broken Sunday by New England's Rob Gronkowski? I doubt either one has much staying power, but I'd guess Brees' record might last a little longer. It's weird (and I think a little hypocritical) that the media makes a big deal out of these records they know don't mean very much in context.

3. New England Patriots [3] — Quietly gained 6,848 yards this season, the 4th-highest total in NFL history. And yet, they were only the 3rd-highest scoring team this season, behind Green Bay and New Orleans. Tom Brady threw the 300th regular-season touchdown pass of his career in Week 17, tying John Elway for 5th place all-time. The Patriots rallied from huge deficits in each of the last two weeks, coming back from 17 down to defeat Miami, and scoring 49 points in a row after dropping into a 21-0 hole against Buffalo. I'm uneasy about predicting the Pats will reach Super Bowl XLVI. On a neutral field, I wouldn't bet on them against Baltimore, and I think the Steelers could give them real problems. But New England went 7-1 at home this season, and has locked up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.

4. San Francisco 49ers [4] — One of five defenses whose interceptions (23) exceeded the number of passing touchdowns it allowed (20). The others were Green Bay (+2), Baltimore (+4), and Seattle (+4). San Francisco's Week 17 victory was not as close as the scoreboard made it appear: the Niners led 34-13 with 5:00 left. The Rams scored, recovered an onside kick, and scored again, but that can be at least partially attributed to the 49ers taking their collective foot off the gas pedal.

5. Baltimore Ravens [5] — Ray Rice posted the 13th season in NFL history with at least 1,000 rushing yards and over 700 receiving yards. He and Marshall Faulk are the only players to do it more than once. This may sound strange to Raven fans, but I think they should root for Pittsburgh the next two weeks. You're hoping Houston beats Cincinnati, so the Ravens get Houston at home, while the Steelers knock out Denver and New England. I'd rather face Pittsburgh at home (where you won 35-7 in Week 1) than the Patriots on the road.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers [6] — Might be without Rashard Mendenhall and Ryan Clark when they face Denver on Sunday. Bad playoff teams usually win their first game for some reason, but I simply don't believe the Broncos are good enough to beat Pittsburgh. This team is tested and motivated and it's dealt with adversity all season. Steelers by 10. Pittsburgh went 5-1 after the bye.

7. Atlanta Falcons [7] — Rolled over the Buccaneers so badly that backup QB Chris Redman was in before halftime. The Falcons, who were just 4-4 on the road this season, travel to a cold, windy stadium to face the Giants on Sunday. Matt Ryan is 0-2 in the playoffs, and the Falcons went 1-4 this season against playoff teams, winning at Detroit in Week 7. On paper, there's a lot working against them. But I believe the Falcons are better than the Giants, and apart from the miraculous 2007 postseason, Eli Manning is 0-3 in the playoffs, losing the first game each time. My pick is Atlanta by 4.

8. Philadelphia Eagles [11] — Finished in the top 10 in total offense, total defense, points scored, and points allowed. They won seven of their last 11 games after a 1-4 start, including four in a row to close the season. They went 5-1 in division games and won by double-digits a total of six times. The Eagles actually outscored their opponents by 68 points this season, best in the NFC East and 5th-best in the conference. The hype got too big and the drama got out of hand, and turnovers were a problem all season, but this team has the potential to be very dangerous in 2012.

9. Detroit Lions [9] — With four of Green Bay's biggest stars on the bench, the Lions gave up 45 points and lost. Matt Stafford and Matt Flynn combined for 1,000 passing yards. The game set records for most combined pass attempts without overtime (103) and most combined passing yards (973 with sacks), blowing away the previous mark from the legendary Dan Marino/Ken O'Brien duel in 1986 (884). The Lions have an explosive offense, but their chances of outscoring the Saints in New Orleans are very slim. Saints by double-digits.

10. Arizona Cardinals [10] — Won seven of their last nine and set a new standard for overtime performance, winning four games in sudden death this season. Ken Whisenhunt is 40-40 as head coach of the Cardinals, making him the team's most successful coach since Don Coryell. With three more wins in 2012, Whisenhunt will pass Coryell as the winningest coach in team history.

11. Seattle Seahawks [8] — Four red zone possessions against Arizona yielded a total of 6 points: two field goals, a missed field goal, and an interception. You can't win when you play like that. The Seahawks had a top-10 defense this year, and won five of their last eight games. Offseason priorities: receivers and offensive linemen, in that order.

12. San Diego Chargers [12] — I've repeatedly criticized the Chargers this season, and some of their failures absolutely have to be pinned on the coaching staff. But with at least six teams already searching for new coaches, how confident are the Chargers that they can find someone better? In five seasons, Norv Turner is 49-31 (.613) and has never finished with a losing record. San Diego won four of its last five, all by double-digits. All four AFC West teams went 3-3 in the division this year.

13. New York Giants [13] — The Giants are like a box of chocolates: you never know what you're gonna get. They swept the Cowboys, but got swept by Washington. Some weeks they're up, some weeks they're down. Mostly, the team seems to live and die with its pass rush. When the front four are getting home, the Giants can compete with anybody. When they're not, anybody can compete with the Giants, and I mean anybody. The Rams, the Bucs, LSU, Duke...

14. Houston Texans [17] — First playoff game in franchise history is a rematch of their 20-19 win over the Bengals in Week 14. The difference is that this time, the game's in Houston, and Andre Johnson is expected to play. The Texans haven't been the same team without Matt Schaub, but I think they have enough left to beat the Bengals on Saturday. Houston by 3.

15. Cincinnati Bengals [15] — What is it with special teamers diving into the end zone trying to down a punt? You just cost your team 18 or 19 yards of critical field position! The Bengals had enough to overcome with the officiating. I don't believe referees who are biased against Cincinnati should be allowed to officiate their games. A.J. Green is the first rookie wide receiver to make a Pro Bowl since Anquan Boldin in 2003.

16. Carolina Panthers [16] — Won four of their last six games, including two massacres of the helpless Buccaneers and a road win in Houston. Last year's Panthers scored just 196 points, by far the worst in the league. This year's Panthers scored 406 points, 5th-most in the NFL. I'm not aware that any other team has ever doubled its point total from one season to the next (without extending the schedule). I'd love to see them add a shutdown cornerback and/or knee-buckling pass rusher in 2012.

17. Miami Dolphins [21] — Went 2-1 with Todd Bowles as head coach, beating their two biggest rivals and almost topping the Patriots in New England. It will be interesting to see if Bowles gets a real shot at coaching the team in 2012, or if he's just an excuse to satisfy the Rooney Rule. Jason Taylor announced his retirement before Sunday's game, and it was incredible to watch him run a fumble into the end zone, scoring a touchdown in the final game of his illustrious career and getting mobbed by teammates in a way I'm not sure I've ever seen before. The TD was overturned (down by contact), but Taylor still left the game on a high note. Happy trails, 99.

18. Dallas Cowboys [14] — Lost four of their last five and never beat a team with a winning record after Week 2. Remember a few years ago when Cris Collinsworth inexplicably praised Brett Favre for throwing from beyond the line of scrimmage? I think he really likes when guys do that. Tony Romo drew the same penalty on Sunday night, and Collinsworth was awed: "All right, that was a penalty, and it doesn't count. That was also one of the most brilliant plays I've seen in a long time." Wait, no. No. It was stupid. Did that hand injury turn Romo back into a rookie? At some point, you have got to throw the ball away, preferably before crossing the line of scrimmage. Eli Manning had to move around some, too, but he never forgot where the line of scrimmage was. Romo took unnecessary hits all night. What poor decision-making.

19. Tennessee Titans [18] — If they had beaten the Colts in Week 15, they'd be in the playoffs.

20. Kansas City Chiefs [23] — Ranked ahead of a team that beat them 37-10 three weeks ago, but that was with Tyler Palko at quarterback. I know Kyle Orton didn't exactly set the scoreboard on fire in KC's 7-3 win over Denver, but this isn't the same team now that it has a real quarterback. It will be interesting to see where Orton lands in 2011. The Chiefs get several of their best players back next season, and you'd expect them to be competitive in 2012. Romeo Crennel went 2-1 as head coach after taking over for Todd Haley.

21. New York Jets [19] — At the top of this column, I complained about the AFC Pro Bowl selections at offensive tackle. D'Brickashaw Ferguson made the squad, and meaning no disrespect, that's absurd. On Sunday, I watched Jets/Dolphins, then went right into Ravens/Bengals. It's preposterous to suggest that Ferguson is better than Andrew Whitworth. Ferguson drew multiple false start penalties, the Jets never ran to his side, and his pass-blocking was just average. It's not that Ferguson is a bad player, but he's not nearly the best. Center Nick Mangold also made the Pro Bowl. If the Jets really have the best offensive line in the AFC, how is their offense so mediocre? I'm not impressed by Mark Sanchez, either, but let's not pin this whole thing on the quarterback.

Rex Ryan's unique public persona helped fuel his team to back-to-back AFC Championship appearances, and I believe his players respect him for being who he is. But the horse got ahead of the cart this year. I believe the team, and Ryan himself, would benefit from the coach dialing things back a little, and discord in the locker room seems to have become a real problem. I'm not in a position to add anything to the Santonio Holmes dialogue, but when you have a veteran like LaDainian Tomlinson among those saying Holmes quit on the team, there's a serious problem. Ryan needs to direct his energy to making this a cohesive team again before he worries about anything else. The Jets lost their last three games this season.

22. Washington Redskins [22] — Tied with Philadelphia for the 2nd-worst turnover differential in the NFL, -14. Rex Grossman threw an interception for the 12th straight game, and it's just unthinkable that the team will subject fans to another season without a legitimate quarterback. Washington showed off horrendous clock management for the second week in a row, running out of time for a 33-yard field goal attempt at the end of the first half, shortly after Graham Gano suffered his sixth blocked kick of the season, doubling the worst mark since 2003, when Martin Gramatica also had 6 blocks. That's the record going back to 1991, when the league began recording this stat for individual kickers.

23. Denver Broncos [20] — The Broncos are who we thought they were. No one's caught off guard any more by Denver's unconventional offense. There's a reason no team in 50 years has used that as its primary offensive strategy. Two years from now, I wonder what Denver fans will think of the decisions to trade Brandon Lloyd, cut Kyle Orton, and hand the keys to a player more famous for his faith than his passing.

24. Oakland Raiders [24] — Broke the single-season record for penalties, previously held by the 1998 Chiefs. Six of the top eight most-penalized teams all-time are Raiders. Darrius Heyward-Bey, the 7th overall pick of the 2009 draft, had by far his best season this year, especially after Carson Palmer took over at QB. The Raiders allowed a league-worst 5.1 yards per carry this year, and need to dramatically improve their run defense in the offseason.

25. Cleveland Browns [25] — One of three teams to go winless in its division this season, the others being the Rams and Vikings. The Browns lost their last six games, but most of them were close. Cleveland lost by more than two touchdowns only once all season. This team desperately needs to upgrade its passing game in the offseason.

26. Buffalo Bills [26] — How do you blow a 21-0 lead? Ryan Fitzpatrick's Week 17 was a microcosm of his whole 2011 season: Dr. Jekyll in the first half and Mr. Hyde in the second. Fitzpatrick was terrific in the first half against New England: 246 yards, 2 TDs, 122.0 passer rating. In the second half, 61 yards, 4 INTs, 18.3 rating. I know the Bills gave Fitzpatrick a big contract this season, but they need another option available in 2012 in case Fitzpatrick continues to struggle.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars [30] — I have nothing personal against Blaine Gabbert, but the Jaguars can't do in 2012 what they did in 2011, which is go into the season with Gabbert as the only option at quarterback. There has to be a veteran around to take the heat off if Gabbert doesn't improve. It would help to bring in some receivers.

28. Chicago Bears [28] — Ended a disappointing season by winning an ugly game, the team's first victory since Jay Cutler broke his thumb. The Bears were 7-3 and strong playoff contenders at the time. How different might the playoffs look if Cutler had stayed healthy? Maybe a lot. I suspect the Bears would have won three games they lost, finishing 11-5 and making the playoffs instead of Detroit. Most notably, I believe Chicago would have beaten the Broncos with Cutler healthy (Denver won 13-10). That means the Chargers, not the Broncos, would be AFC West champions. Ironically, Cutler broke the thumb trying to tackle Chargers CB Antoine Cason. If Cason had dropped the interception, San Diego might be gearing up for a home game against Pittsburgh, and Norv Turner's job security would be a lot better. A butterfly flaps its wings...

29. Indianapolis Colts [27] — Does any team have more question marks heading into the offseason? The club has fired longtime GM Bill Polian and his son, Chris Polian. Head coach Jim Caldwell's status is up in the air, but I'm skeptical that the new general manager will retain him. And perhaps most importantly, Peyton Manning's future with the team remains a mystery. The Colts hold the top pick in April's draft.

30. Minnesota Vikings [29] — I wonder if this has ever happened before: the Vikings led the NFL in sacks (50, tied with Philadelphia) and in passing touchdowns allowed. Isn't that precisely the sort of thing a good pass rush usually prevents? Jared Allen recorded 3.5 of Minnesota's seven sacks against Josh McCown and the Bears, bringing Allen's season total to 22, just ½-sack shy of the official record held by Michael Strahan.

31. St. Louis Rams [32] — How stunning is it that a team this terrible, 2-14 and with a league-worst point differential of -214, beat the Saints in Week 8? It's one of the most improbable results in all of NFL history. The Rams' other win was by 1 point, against Cleveland. Head coach Steve Spagnuolo was fired on Monday after three seasons at the helm.

32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [31] — Lost their last five games 203-88, an average of 41-18. Those five games came against opponents with a combined record of 35-45. The Buccaneers were repeatedly blown out by mediocre opponents. The closest loss was 31-15 against Dallas, a brutal Saturday night game which the Cowboys led 28-0 at halftime. Dallas out-gained Tampa by over 200 yards, picked up four times as many first downs, and won time of possession by 16 minutes. In Tampa. That's their closest game in the last month.

The Bucs lost their last 10 games in a row, "led" the league in turnovers, and allowed the most rushing TDs in the NFL (26) by more than a third (19). This was the third time in franchise history the team was outscored by more than 200 points (207), the others being 1976 and 1986. This was one of the worst teams in the history of a franchise famous for bad teams.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:42 PM | Comments (3)

Bulls Climbing Back to the Summit

During the '90s, Michael Jordan and the Chicago Bulls revolutionized the game of basketball and took it global. People around the world had on Bulls gear and were able to recognize Jordan even if they never watched a full game of basketball before.

During the Jordan era, it was difficult to get a room at Chicago hotels during the regular season and nearly impossible during the playoffs.

Once Jordan left, along with coach Phil Jackson — followed later by Scottie Pippen and Dennis Rodman — the Bulls went through years of poor play and terrible records. That all changed when the franchise was able to draft guard Derrick Rose, who went on to become the Rookie of the Year and last season's MVP.

Rose has the mentality of a player from years ago, but the body and skillset of a new era elite athlete. A lot of athletes today are more concerned with promoting their brand and finding other ways to make money than they are about how they perform on the court.

Don't get me wrong, Rose has endorsements and has been doing more commercials and things like that, but it all comes second to basketball.

When he received the MVP award, he made sure to thank his coaches for drawing up the plays and game plans that featured his talents and for having faith in him to lead the way. He thanked his teammates for finishing off plays that he set them up with and for helping him rack up wins.

After signing a contract extension with the Bulls for around $94 million dollars, he did the same thing again and said some heartfelt words to his mother during the press conference.

Rose has changed the culture of the Chicago Bulls and restored it back to the winning ways of Jordan and Pippen. Well, not completely there because that dynamic duo brought six championships to the city and Rose has yet to make it to the finals, but the team is winning.

Rose has the drive and hunger that Jordan displayed while he played to go along with his natural physical gifts. There are a lot of players that have the physical stature and skill to get to the NBA, but they don't have the mental toughness, will, and discipline needed to take their games to the next level. Rose has been preparing for this moment for years.

Growing up in a tough area of Chicago, Rose was exposed to everything Jordan accomplished and he dreamed that he could be in that position one day. His older brothers kept him out of trouble and in school and on the court practicing every day.

Years later, that dedication paid off but Rose hasn't taken his foot off the pedal. Rose is on a mission to win it all for himself, his teammates, his family, and Chicago.

Another thing I respect about Rose is how he stands up for his team. I remember a number of times where Kobe Bryant embarrassed his teammates while talking to the media and at speaking engagements. Rose hasn't always had the most talented players around him, but when the media asks who he would like to bring in to play with him, he always talks about how much he likes his team and thinks they can win with who they have.

If the best player on the team and MVP of the league has confidence in you that will make others step their game up and want to work harder. Kobe talking down on players and always complaining about bringing in more talent makes his teammates feel more pressure because they have to deal with being attacked internally as well as by critics.

Rose has it all together, and he is making all the right moves. It is hard to root against a guy like that even if you're not a Bulls fan.

Posted by Megan Brown at 2:41 PM | Comments (0)

January 2, 2012

The Evolution of an NBA Fan

About twice a season, the NBA League Pass package becomes available on my cable package for a one or two-week period. The first one always occurs at the beginning of a season, and the second is just after the All-Star Break. For most seasons, this registers an "Oh, hey, cool" in my brain, but I never venture my program guide into the 1400s where the channels are located.

Of all of the seasons to pay the most attention to the promotion, this would presumably not be the one. A prolonged lockout caused the cancellation of about 20% of the season's games, and was resolved with a Collective Bargaining Agreement that could have been hammered out very early in the process. That CBA could very well end up not seriously addressing the league's structural problems.

The season's eve saw one of the most farcical situations in the league's history pan out with David Stern vetoing a perfectly reasonable three-team trade between New Orleans, the Lakers and Houston for "basketball reasons". In doing so, he undermined a General Manager's previously assumed power and seriously altered those franchises' long-term plans. The biggest piece in that rejected trade, Chris Paul, ended up in Los Angeles, as a Clipper, but the damage was done.

Despite these reasons to stay away, my TV was tuned to basketball for a large portion of Christmas Day and did not turn off until after midnight Central Time when the Warriors and Clippers ended proceedings.

Through this past week, I've caught a fair amount of action, but one game I watched told me that my attitude towards the NBA regular season might be changing for good.

Milwaukee and Minnesota last year had a combined record of 52-112. In the past, I would not have even given this game's final score a look on the score ticker. Yet, it was a fairly enjoyable contest that I watched on League Pass, despite the Timberwolves' gratitude with the ball (25 turnovers). Kevin Love, as he has been wont to do in his career, kept Minnesota in the game and helped the team battle back from a 20-point deficit late in the third. Milwaukee's hometown hero, Jon Leuer, played a big role in the win, with 14 points in 20 minutes and a crucial late three-point play. Neither team may be a contender, but Milwaukee is a borderline playoff team and Minnesota can give the top clubs trouble, as was the case Friday against Miami.

I don't know that I'll ever be more of an NBA fan than a college basketball fan, but the fact that a random Bucks/T-Wolves game can now hold my interest is indicative of a slight change in preferences.

Many have hypothesized that the 2011-12 season will look a lot like the 1999 season, the only other time in NBA history when games were cancelled due to a work stoppage. While I agree that teams with less roster turnover from the year before will be more likely to succeed, I can't foresee a repeat of some of the oddities that were present that season.

The Knicks made that year's Finals as an 8 seed, and all of the Eastern Conference's playoff teams were separated by just six games. Even if the Celtics or Mavericks were to somehow only be the No. 8 seed in their respective conferences, it's difficult to imagine those teams (as presently constructed) defeating the Heat or Thunder in a seven-game series. It's also unlikely that the Milwaukees and Torontos of the world could only finish 8-10 games behind Chicago or Miami.

Along those lines, the quality of play in the league is miles better than it was 13 years ago. While statistical factors such as offensive efficiency and pace are down from a year ago, they are not as low as 1999, when a third of the league averaged below 90 points per game. As many as seven or eight current teams could probably beat that year's champion Spurs, including today's Spurs. That San Antonio club had only one player shoot over 50% for the year (David Robinson at 50.9). The team's best guards were Avery Johnson and Mario Elie, and they relied on Jaren Jackson for over 25 minutes a game.

Another factor in my interest in this NBA regular season is its brevity as far as games go. I completely agree that too many games are being played in short time periods this season. Even though the players are professionals, back-to-back-to-backs shouldn't be played under any circumstances due to injury risk and degradation of the product for the third night's game. A 56-game season with in the same late December to late April time span would have likely sufficed and given teams normal rest. However, with 16 less games this year, every game counts just a little bit more.

This year, if your team has a bad 10-game stretch, that's over 15% of the season, as opposed to less than 12% previously. A 66-game regular season in all years, with a normal October-to-April schedule would likely see increased interest in each game, and dividends paid out in TV ratings and attendance. Alas, no one should get their hopes up. The 82-game grind will be back next year and for the foreseeable future.

The current season also shows a definite hierarchy, but not so much so as to allow for no mobility or surprises in the league. The favorites for the title are certainly Miami, Oklahoma City, and Chicago. In the West, teams like San Antonio, Portland and the Clippers figure to be in playoff positions at the end of the year. The same can be said about New York, Atlanta, and Orlando in the East. Indiana and Denver could be dark horses for top three or four seeds in each conference due to their youth in a truncated season. Due to lost pieces and age, past years' powers in the Lakers, Boston and Dallas will represent fascinating case studies.

Despite all the warts and sheer incompetency associated with upper levels of NBA leadership, many factors on the court have converged to make the regular season one worth watching, even if you normally ignore much of the period until the playoffs.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 4:52 PM | Comments (0)

UFC 141 and New Year's Eve in Japan

Five Quick Hits

* Brock Lesnar announced his retirement following a one-sided loss at UFC 141. Mixed martial arts is more interesting with Brock in the sport, but it was the right time for him to go. He can't compete with top competition, and his heart hasn't seemed to be in it recently.

* Beginning around the time of his loss to Cain Velasquez, and progressing with his time as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter and his post-fight interview on Friday night, Lesnar has shown a much more human side than his previous heel persona. It's refreshing, but it also makes me feel a little guilty for my previous attitude toward him.

* Nate Diaz has lost two of his last four fights, and in the last two years he's only beaten one opponent of any note. He looked great against Donald Cerrone, but I don't see him as a serious part of the title discussion at 155 right now.

* Jimy Hettes looked great against Nam Phan, but I think the fight said more about Phan, who has gotten demolished twice in a row now, than about Hettes. What will Hettes do against someone he can't take down? We still don't know.

* In hindsight, what's the most impressive win of Lesnar's career? I say Frank Mir at UFC 100. Randy Couture and Heath Herring were way past their primes, and Shane Carwin embarrassed Lesnar before gassing out.

***

The UFC put on some terrific cards in 2011, and Bellator has offered some really exciting ones, too. But nothing compares to the annual New Year's Eve show at Saitama Super Arena. It's as much spectacle as sport, but I mean that in the best way possible. The show featured elaborate entrances, a slam KO, cross-dressing, a pair of title fights, crazy screaming lady Lenne Hardt, the greatest heavyweight mixed martial artist of all time, some really bizarre pro wrestling, one of the two best female fighters on the planet, and much more.

There were some brutal fights on the card, including two guys who briefly looked like they might be dead, and another who could repeatedly be heard gurgling his own blood. If you had a friend you wanted to introduce to MMA, this absolutely would not be the right card to show them. But for any serious fan of the sport, it's mandatory viewing.

Dream's 2011 New Year's Eve card, Genki Desu Ka!, featured a dozen MMA bouts, two kickboxing matches, one mixed-rules kickboxing/MMA contest, and four pro wrestling performances. It began with a :42 victory for Yusup Saadulaev, who slammed Hideo Tokoro on his neck, resulting in an immediate knockout. I was afraid Saadulaev had killed him. The ref was extremely late stopping the fight, one of the worst risks to fighter safety I've ever seen in MMA. Fortunately, Saadulaev wasn't interested in injuring his opponent, actually stopped and looked at the ref, who encouraged him to keep punching the unconscious Tokoro.

Fëdor Emelianenko's knockout of judo Olympian Satoshi Ishii was almost as brutal. Fëdor didn't even follow his opponent to the ground after connecting. He knew it was over. But probably the most nausea-inducing fight was Shinya Aoki's five-round victory over his former friend Satoru Kitaoka. Aoki didn't snap anyone's limbs this time, but he broke Kitaoka's nose, and the microphones clearly picked up Kitaoka struggling not to drown on his own blood. Several times. Nasty stuff.

In less disgusting action, Megumi Fujii and Bibiano Fernandes showed everything we've come to expect from them, and Hiroyuki Takaya made the most of a title defense against a seemingly disinterested Takeshi Inoue, who was repeatedly warned for inaction. I wish Zuffa and Bellator had something like the yellow card system used in Japan. I mean, I guess Zuffa kind of does, with those mysterious backstage bonuses the fighters receive, but it's not the same thing.

January 2012 UFC Rankings

The rankings below are exclusively for the UFC, so you won't see names like Josh Barnett or Michael Chandler on these lists. I know there are widespread rumors concerning Strikeforce fighters moving to the UFC, but until they have fights officially set, they're not ranked here.

Heavyweight (206-265 lbs)

1. Junior Dos Santos
2. Cain Velasquez
3. Alistair Overeem
4. Frank Mir
5. Shane Carwin
6. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
7. Roy Nelson
8. Brendan Schaub
9. Cheick Kongo
10. Fabricio Werdum

Make it Happen: Velasquez vs. Mir

Zuffa has confirmed that it is folding the Strikeforce heavyweight division into the UFC, which makes a lot of sense. Until the Grand Prix finalists arrive, though, this division remains very thin at the top. Velasquez is easily a top-four heavyweight, and Mir has won three in a row, including an incredibly impressive performance against Nogueira. This works as a number one contender's bout.

Thank You, UFC, For: Dos Santos vs. Overeem

A note of clarification regarding the rankings: I think this is a terrible matchup for Dos Santos. Overeem's quality of competition has been so unsteady that it's not easy to compare to him to someone like JDS, who has faced a murderer's row the last couple of years. But Dos Santos is first and foremost a striker, and in that respect, I believe he's outclassed by Overeem, who has more power and diversity to his striking attack. If I had to guess, I'd say Overeem, who relinquished the Strikeforce, Dream, and K-1 Heavyweight titles before joining the UFC, also becomes a UFC champion in 2012.

Light Heavyweight (186-205)

1. Jon Jones
2. Dan Henderson
3. Maurício "Shogun" Rua
4. Lyoto Machida
5. Rashad Evans
6. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
7. Phil Davis
8. Alexander Gustafsson
9. Forrest Griffin
10. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

Make it Happen: Rich Franklin vs. Stephan Bonnar

An exciting matchup of two fan favorites, it works whether this is Bonnar's next match or he takes another beforehand. These two should meet in the cage at some point, and it should happen before either of them reaches the phase of rapid decline or retirement.

Thank You, UFC, For: Evans vs. Davis

I feel bad for Evans that his title shot keeps getting put off, but I'm glad the UFC gave him a competitive fight rather than just leaving him on the shelf. I know I've ranked Henderson a few slots higher, but if Evans wins this, he absolutely has to get his shot at Jones. Give Hendo a fight with Gustafsson or Machida, or the winner of Jackson/Bader. If Davis wins, though, I'd like to see Jones vs. Henderson and Davis vs. Machida or Rua.

Middleweight (171-185)

1. Anderson Silva
2. Chael Sonnen
3. Yushin Okami
4. Michael Bisping
5. Vitor Belfort
6. Mark Muñoz
7. Demian Maia
8. Alan Belcher
9. Brian Stann
10. Jason "Mayhem" Miller

Make it Happen: winner of Bisping/Maia vs. winner of Belfort/Anthony Johnson

No matter who wins these fights, I think fans get a great matchup. I admit that Bisping vs. Belfort seems particularly interesting, but I'm also glad to see Johnson getting closer to his natural weight class (super-heavyweight) and Maia fighting someone he won't try to stand with.

Thank You, UFC, For: Bisping vs. Maia

Sonnen, Okami, Belfort, and Muñoz were all spoken for. This was the only fight that made sense for Bisping right now.

Welterweight (156-170)

1. Georges St-Pierre
2. Nick Diaz
3. Carlos Condit
4. Johny Hendricks
5. Jon Fitch
6. Jake Ellenberger
7. Jake Shields
8. Martin Kampmann
9. Josh Koscheck
10. Diego Sanchez

I just noticed this, but there are no Brazilians among the elites in the UFC's welterweight division. Paulo Thiago's not bad, but his best win (Koscheck) came three years ago. He's 3-3 since then. There are some young guys who might have bright futures, but no one who's really established himself in the UFC. It's weird. The Brazilians are rebuilding at lightweight, too. Among Brazilians, who's the best 155er in the world? Gleison Tibau? Edson Barboza? JZ Cavalcante? Patricky Freire?

Make it Happen: Hendricks vs. winner of Kampmann/Thiago Alves

Hendricks just knocked out a guy who had only lost once in the last nine years, to St-Pierre. Hendricks' only career loss, to Rick Story, was a questionable decision. He deserves to keep fighting top competition, and with another win or two, he would deserve an opportunity to fight for the title.

Thank You, UFC, For: Diaz vs. Condit

Don't get me wrong, I am increasingly unhappy that GSP vs. Diaz keeps getting put off, but at least this is for the interim belt while GSP rehabs his knee. It was pretty shocking that Condit opened as the betting favorite for this fight. Other than maybe power and facial scar tissue, I'm not sure where he's better than Diaz. They have similar skill sets, but I think Diaz does almost everything a little bit better.

P.S. — Don't get excited, gambling addicts. The line has moved substantially, and Diaz (-150) is now a solid favorite. Save your money for Overeem (+150).

Lightweight (146-155)

1. Frankie Edgar
2. Ben Henderson
3. Gray Maynard
4. Jim Miller
5. Kenny Florian
6. Anthony Pettis
7. Joe Lauzon
8. Melvin Guillard
9. Clay Guida
10. Evan Dunham

Make it Happen: Nate Diaz vs. winner of Dunham/Nik Lentz

Diaz has earned another fight against a ranked opponent, but let's not book him against the top of the division just yet. Would you bet on him against Dunham? I wouldn't.

Thank You, UFC, For: Miller vs. Guillard

Two exciting fighters looking to prove their recent losses were flukes. I'm also pleased with Pettis vs. Lauzon. Thanks, Joe Silva.

Featherweight (136-145)

1. Jose Aldo
2. Chad Mendes
3. Erik Koch
4. Dustin Poirier
5. Diego Nunes
6. Robert Peralta
7. Mark Hominick
8. Mike Brown
9. Bart Palaszewski
10. Diego Brandao

Make it Happen: Nunes vs. Chan Sung Jung

The Korean Zombie is coming off a 7-second knockout win over Hominick and the first twister submission in UFC history. It's time to let him prove he's among the best featherweights in the world.

Thank You, UFC, For: Palaszewski vs. Hatsu Hioki

This is an appropriate match to make after Hioki's unimpressive UFC debut. I was looking for Mike Brown to face Hioki, but Bartimus works, too.

Bantamweight (126-135)

1. Dominick Cruz
2. Urijah Faber
3. Brian Bowles
4. Miguel Torres
5. Renan Barão
6. Scott Jorgensen
7. Brad Pickett
8. Eddie Wineland
9. Michael McDonald
10. Takeya Mizugaki

Make it Happen: T.J. Dillashaw vs. John Albert

I know Albert is already booked against Ivan Menjivar, but I would have loved to see him fight Dillashaw, the reality show runner-up who earned the contemptuous nickname "Draft Dodger" for convincing his coaches to give him an easy road the finals by matching Albert against John Dodson. Give the kid a chance for revenge. Albert is a nice prospect, but Menjivar is not an easy fight. I think the kids from Season 14 are getting thrown straight into the deep end.

Thank You, UFC, For: Barão vs. Jorgensen

Barão is 27-1. He lost the first fight of his career, in April 2005. Since then, he's 27-0, including four wins in the WEC and UFC, most recently a first-round submission over Pickett. Jorgensen has won seven of his last eight, the loss coming to bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz. Whoever wins this match looks to have the inside track to a title fight.

Flyweight (116-125)

I'm not ranking this division until it has more than four fighters, but I expect Joseph Benavidez to become the first UFC flyweight champion.

UFC 142

Following a successful show in Rio last year, the UFC returns to Brazil on January 14. Jose Aldo defends his featherweight belt against Chad Mendes, Anthony "Rumble" Johnson makes his middleweight debut against Vitor Belfort, and my early pick for Fight of the Night pits Terry Etim against Edson Barboza.

Aldo has looked dominant in recent years, with convincing wins over proven opponents like Urijah Faber and Kenny Florian. But he also looked vulnerable against featherweight journeyman Mark Hominick, and he's never faced a wrestler like Mendes. If Aldo can keep the fight standing, he'll win easily, and it won't be pretty (in a good way). If Aldo can't stop the takedown, though, Mendes figures to come out ahead, and it won't be pretty (in a boring way). Aldo is reputed to possess terrific jiu-jitsu, but Mendes has been successful in the past neutralizing opponents with top control.

I'm picking Aldo, though, mostly because he has more ways to win. Mendes has never finished a legit opponent. He doesn't have dangerous ground and pound, he doesn't have good submissions. He has great takedowns, smothering top control, pretty good defense. But if he wins, it's by decision. Aldo could win a decision, too, but he could also win with his hands, with kicks, with ground and pound, with a submission. I don't know that Mendes can hold him off for 25 minutes.

You never know what to expect from Vitor Belfort, and Johnson has never fought at 185 before, so there are a lot of questions surrounding the co-main event. Johnson is a talented striker, but I don't think he wants to put that to the test against Belfort, so I'd look for an approach similar to his decision win over Dan Hardy: wrestling. But Belfort is more experienced and less one-dimensional than Hardy, with a ground game that could put Johnson in bad situations. He also possesses one-punch knockout power, while Hardy generally won by picking opponents apart.

Johnson has never faced an opponent of this caliber, apart from maybe Josh Koscheck, and when you add in the homefield advantage (home cage advantage?), this looks like a very tough matchup for Johnson. I'm picking Vitor. And I like Etim a lot, but the guess here is that Barboza improves to 10-0.

Most books haven't posted full odds beyond the headlining fights yet, but I've seen Erick Silva at -475 over Carlo Prater (+325) at 5Dimes, and even with that steep line, I like Silva. One parlay idea I'm looking at is: Aldo + Barboza + Silva + Rousimar Palhares. Matched up against Mike Massenzio at -500, Palhares is barely worth including in your parlay, but he's heavily favored for a reason. That parlay won't make you a millionaire — you like living on the edge, put Prater and Massenzio in your parlay, see where that gets you* — but the payout is probably about 200%, depending on the odds for Barboza.

* 18.5-to-1, I checked. Don't do it.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:26 PM | Comments (1)