As we get into the meat of the bowl season (and everyone's most confident picks have already played), let's take a look at what we've learned so far and what we can expect from here on out.
Let's begin with what we've learned so far.
1) The Big East missed out on Temple.
Temple's move out of the Big East and into the Mid-American Conference turned out to be the best move for the Owls. Al Golden laid the foundation for success and Steve Addazio has carried the torch as Temple went 9-4 and had one of the most impressive performances so far this bowl season in routing Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl. Bernard Pierce was, well, Bernard Pierce and the Owls shut Wyoming for most of the entire game. Temple is a school on the rise in great geographical proximity to many Big East schools, so why the conference didn't look at them stronger (much less, take San Diego State) is beyond me.
2) Boise State doesn't sleep through bowl games.
Okay, I admit it. Boise State was my second most confident pick, behind TCU. Despite the Horned Frogs winning a closer-than-anticipated Poinsettia Bowl, the Broncos proved why they should have been the most confident choice this season. Despite the fact that Boise ended up back in Las Vegas again this year when they were thinking Sugar all the way, the Broncos refused to go through the motions and dominated Arizona State from start to finish. That speaks highly of Chris Petersen's squad, players and staff alike.
Boise will face a little stronger opposition in the Big East, and while they still need to toughen up the non-conference slate (yes, Bronco fans, I know many teams just won't play you regardless), the road to the BCS will be much easier for Boise State from here on out.
3) These small-time bowls are proving to be entertaining.
Besides Temple and Boise State, these have been some pretty nice matchups so far. From the clutch fourth-down play from Ohio (Potato Bowl), to the winning long-distance field goal from Louisiana-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl), these early bowls have provided some great drama. So far, we've had the Boise State and Temple routs, and then five bowl games decided by a combined 27 points. That's pretty good stuff right there.
4) Penn Wagers and his SEC officiating crew are horrific.
Oh wait, we knew that already. Has anyone ever seen a call reviewed twice in a game before? Pathetic. Thankfully, they at least got the call right the second time.
So which bowls are the big winners and losers this year?
Jerry Jones and the Cotton Bowl are the big winners this season.
You could give a nod to the Fiesta Bowl, who struggled with scandal in the offseason only to land a stellar matchup this season in Stanford/Oklahoma State, but the Cotton Bowl, who is working hard to become the next BCS bowl game, won big in landing the only non-BCS matchup between two top-10 teams.
While the Sugar Bowl picked two teams outside of the top 10 for the first time since 1945 (I'll get to that one later), and other bowls struggle to sell tickets, the Cotton Bowl was lucky enough to land Arkansas and Kansas State, which not only has the makings of an exciting game, but also has two fan bases that wasted no time ensuring Jerry World would be packed to the rafters.
Forget all the alignments and "Conference No. 2 vs. Conference No. 3" rhetoric that's put up before bowl selections. Bowl picks are about geography and selling out their stadium. This year, the Cotton struck gold.
The Sugar Bowl and Paul Hoolihan are the big losers.
New Orleans should be lucky that they've got the national title game this year. Paul Hoolihan's logic in picking Virginia Tech hasn't worked out so well for him and the Sugar Bowl is left with a matchup that is the weakest of the BCS bowl games. Sure, you can argue that Clemson/West Virginia is a matchup of lower-ranked teams, but at least West Virginia won their league and Clemson beat the Hokies twice this season. Hoolihan, famously known for persuading the NCAA to let Ohio State's "Tattoo Five" play in his bowl game last year, played his cards wrong again. While Denard Robinson will be worth the price of admission, this game lacks appeal and will end up as one of the biggest clunkers of the bowl season.
So what can we expect in the days to come?
1) There are going to be lots of shootouts.
Clemson and West Virginia doesn't sound like the sexiest Orange Bowl matchup, but there's no doubt that this will be a game of high-octane offense in which several records could be shattered. I'm thinking an Oregon/Wisconsin Rose Bowl could be an offensive showcase, as well. LaMichael James, Montee Ball, Russell Wilson ... this has all the makings of a fun day in Pasadena. Then you've got one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Stanford's Andrew Luck going against the well-oiled offensive machine known as Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl. I'm thinking the first team to 50 wins.
There's the Alamo Bowl, which features RG3 and Baylor taking on a fairly underrated Washington team, who packs a pretty nice offensive punch themselves. And then there's the already mentioned potential classic between the high-powered air attack of Arkansas and the high-powered ground attack of Kansas State. These bowls are all must-see affairs.
2) There are a lot of toss-up games.
There's a lot of games that are up in the air in terms of picking a winner. Texas and California both lack the consistency to guarantee one won't show up and lay a complete egg in the Holiday Bowl. Texas A&M is loaded with some talented players, but the Aggies have choked so many times this season that one wonders if they will compete for 60 minutes against a pretty good Northwestern squad. Penn State and Houston is as big a toss-up as I've ever seen. The Nittany Lions have a solid defense. Houston has a great offense. But given all that's happened at Penn State, coupled with Houston's collapse against Southern Miss, it's very hard to pick a winner there.
3) The BBVA Compass Bowl will have really low attendance figures and really low TV ratings.
Legion Field needs to either be renovated or torn down and replaced with something more deserving for a football-crazy town like Birmingham. Either way, this bowl game just lacks any pizazz whatsoever. A Pitt team who lost their coach to Arizona State faces a SMU team that's not at full strength and who almost lost their coach to Arizona State. I'm yawning as I type this.
4) Auburn and Florida should lose, but...
You look at the Chick-Fil-A and Gator Bowls, and you think Virginia and Ohio State should cruise, respectively, in these games. After all, Auburn has a pitiful defense and lost their top offensive threat, Michael Dyer, to suspension. As for Florida, shock paddles haven't been able to put a pulse in their offense at times. But Virginia has been inconsistent at times and Gene Chizik has had bowl magic working for him lately. And Ohio State's record against the SEC has never been that pretty. So I'd pencil in the Cavs and the Buckeyes, but I wouldn't be shocked if there were upsets here.
5) LSU and Alabama will score more points in the first half of their rematch than in their previous showdown.
It won't be an offensive explosion by any means. But given over a month to prepare, there should be a few more offensive fireworks than the defensive slugfest in Tuscaloosa earlier this year. By the way, I'm going 17-16 in favor of LSU. I like Nick Saban's team, but there's something about LSU playing title games in the Superdome.
Hopefully the rest of the bowl season is as exciting as some of these early bowl games have been. It should be a lot of fun as the college football season concludes.
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