Five Quick Hits
* If your team suffered season-ending injuries to the starting quarterback, the starting tight end, a running back who was drafted in the first round of every fantasy league, and a second-year safety who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, what do you think your record would be? About 5-8?
* I seem to recall the league claiming that players were being monitored and wouldn't be allowed to return to the field following a concussion. That's obviously false.
* AFC teams mathematically eliminated from playoff contention: Colts, Browns, Dolphins, Jaguars, Bills.
* NFC teams mathematically eliminated from playoff contention: Rams, Vikings, Buccaneers, Panthers, Washington.
* A year ago, the Yankees overpaid Derek Jeter to keep him in pinstripes. A week ago, the Cardinals let Albert Pujols leave town rather than overpay him. Which team would you rather be a fan of?
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We begin with a weekly tradition, the NFL Network "We Don't Fact-Check" Moment of the Week: Michael Irvin claiming that "outside of Green Bay and Chicago, no one has played more than [the Steelers and Browns]." Top 10 rivalries in history, by number of head-to-head games played (including postseason):
1. Bears/Packers, 183
2. Bears/Lions, 164
2. Packers/Lions, 164
4. Giants/Eagles, 160
5. Giants/Redskins, 159
6. Redskins/Eagles, 155
7. Giants/Cardinals, 125
8. Rams/49ers, 124
9. Redskins/Cardinals, 121
10. Steelers/Browns, 119
Steelers/Browns is a legendary rivalry — there's no need to enhance it with lies. The commenters on this station just randomly make things up. Routinely.
On to this week's power rankings, brackets indicate last week's rank.
1. Green Bay Packers [1] — Defense leads the NFL in interceptions (27). No one else has more than 18. Green Bay leads the league by 50%. The Packers have intercepted as many passes as Arizona, Denver, and Washington combined. Or the Bengals, Browns, Saints, and Vikings combined. Don't tell me this is a poor defense. Ryan Grant, starring at RB for the first time since 2009, rushed for 85 yards and 2 touchdowns against Oakland.
2. New Orleans Saints [3] — Poor red zone offense (three field goals under 30 yards, no red zone TDs) made the game uncomfortably close, but the real difference was third down percentage: the Saints went 11/19 (58%) and the Titans just 1/10 (10%). New Orleans has won five in a row, and I'm inclined to view the loss to the Rams as ancient history (and probably a fluke) at this point. Courtney Roby made 5 tackles on special teams (4 solo) against Tennessee.
3. Baltimore Ravens [4] — Some fans in Baltimore still resent the Colts for leaving almost 30 years ago, and Sunday's game was sweet revenge for those fans. The Ravens gained twice as many yards and twice as many first downs as Indianapolis, as the Colts sank to 0-13 and the Ravens moved within one game of clinching a playoff spot. Terrell Suggs had 3 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. That's his third game of the season with at least 3 sacks, giving him a career-high 13 with three weeks left to play.
4. New England Patriots [2] — Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in the NFL right now. His receiving numbers are phenomenal (1,088 yards, 15 TD), obviously. He gets open, has good hands, is a terror to bring down, and can actually block. Other than Tom Brady, Gronkowski is the Patriots' MVP. That style of offense doesn't work without him.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers [5] — Continue to overcome injuries, but check out this quote from Mike Mayock, "Troy Polamalu is so darn good at what he does [that] they use it against him, he turns and runs away from the seam route." Polamalu is one of a handful of players who are so deified by the media that apparently they are incapable of doing anything wrong, and never in the course of the season, at any time, make a bad play. What a load of crap. He jumped the wrong route and got beat. It's that simple. James Harrison dominated Cleveland's all-pro tackle Joe Thomas on Thursday. Harrison is expected to face a suspension from the league for tackling Colt McCoy.
6. Houston Texans [7] — Seventh straight win. Missing Andre Johnson and enduring Arian Foster's most disappointing performance of the season, the Texans clinched the first playoff appearance in franchise history with a last-minute 20-19 victory in Cincinnati. The Texans with T.J. Yates remind me a little of the Steelers in 2004. Not that Yates is Ben Roethlisberger, but you've got a rookie quarterback who's mostly making the plays he needs to, on a team with a lot of talent around him, especially a great defense. The '04 Steelers went 15-1 and lost in the AFC Championship Game. I could see 10-3 Houston getting that far if it holds on to a first-round bye.
7. Atlanta Falcons [8] — At 8-5, they control their own destiny in the NFC wild card race. Two of the remaining games, at home against the Jaguars and Buccaneers, look like easy wins, so Atlanta should get in. But overconfidence is a recipe for disaster — they'd better not take Jacksonville lightly. The early line for their Thursday night matchup is Atlanta -12½. Does that seem excessive to anyone else?
8. San Francisco 49ers [6] — Kicked three field goals under 30 yards, lost by two. Get a touchdown on any of those and you probably win. They had 1st-and-goal at the 4, settled for a 22-yard field goal. They had 2nd-and-3 at the 6, couldn't pick up the first down. They had 1st-and-goal at the 4 again, kicked a field goal with :10 left in the first half rather than take a shot into the end zone. Everything about their red zone decision-making says they didn't believe the Cardinals could beat them. Oops.
9. Denver Broncos [9] — Early in the fourth quarter, Vince Young Tim Tebow was 3-of-14, for 41 yards and an interception, with 3 sacks. He'd thrown 11 straight incompletions and the Broncos were in the middle of their seventh three-and-out. I don't care what kind of magic he's worked in the last 5:00, I wouldn't want him as my quarterback. Well, I mean, I would if I were a Jaguars fan, or Washington, or a couple other teams. But even then, not as the long term guy. I wouldn't want to build my team around him.
10. New York Jets [12] — Shonn Greene rushed for 129 yards, only the fourth regular-season 100-yard performance of his career, and added 58 receiving yards to power the Jets over Kansas City. Mark Sanchez posted more modest yardage (155 passing, 4 rushing), but made plays when it counted (4 TDs). And of course, the defense limited KC to 3.1 yards per carry and a 66.5 passer rating. The Jets are poised for a playoff wild card, but two of the last three are on the road, where the team is 2-4 this season. Even the home game is against the Giants, so you can't think there's much advantage there.
11. Tennessee Titans [11] — Backup quarterback Jake Locker outrushed Chris Johnson 36 yards to 23.
12. Seattle Seahawks [19] — In the last month, they're 4-1, with three blowout wins (combined 85-34) and a victory over the Ravens. Maybe I'm overestimating a team that's had two recent games against the Rams, but Seattle is playing pretty good defense, with a never-say-die running game and sound special teams. They don't have any really obvious holes, and there aren't many other teams you can say that about right now. It will be interesting to see how they do on the road against a desperate Bears team next week.
13. Arizona Cardinals [16] — Looked like the 2008-09 Cardinals who won back-to-back NFC West titles, with Larry Fitzgerald going off for 149 yards against San Francisco. Since the bye, they're 5-3 against a tough schedule that included the Ravens, Steelers, Cowboys, and Niners (twice). Calais Campbell (sack, 2 pass deflections) is quietly having a pretty impressive season.
14. New York Giants [18] — Following a legitimately impressive Giants comeback on Sunday night, Cris Collinsworth characteristically went overboard: "Nobody could do better than what Eli Manning has done in the clutch this season." Off the top of my head, I could name a half-dozen QBs to counter that argument, but let's pick one easy example: Aaron Rodgers. How do you define clutch? NFL.com offers situational stats, and one strikes me as particularly relevant: fourth quarter within 7. That's basically, what did the guy do at the end of close games?
Manning: 54/84, 807 yds, 8 TD, 2 INT, 117.5 rating
Rodgers: 24/32, 400 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT, 156.2 rating
Rodgers is way ahead, obviously, but that's a tiny sample. What if we expanded more generally to close games, anything within 7 points?
Manning: 166/271, 2134 yds, 12 TD, 5 INT, 93.0 rating
Rodgers: 92/132, 1259 yds, 13 TD, 1 INT, 129.6 rating
Actually, Manning's passer rating is higher when the margin is 8-14 (100.4) than when it's close, and higher still when the margin is 15+ (101.9) — he's actually been less efficient when the game is tight. Of course, there are other standards we could use to define the term clutch. Overall fourth quarter performance? Manning actually has a slightly better overall rating in the fourth quarter — if you include blowouts, because it's easy to complete passes against prevent defense. But Eli falls well short of Rodgers in the red zone, and near his own end zone, and in the last two minutes of a half, and almost any other situation you can think of. Manning really has played well in the clutch this season, but declaring him the best is absurd.
15. Dallas Cowboys [10] — The Chargers of the NFC, a talented team that seems to lose close games with unusual frequency. Let's review the Cowboys' six losses:
1) Week 1, 27-24 Jets: Cowboys had 14-point fourth quarter lead, then committed 4 turnovers, including three in the final 5:00.
2) Week 4, 34-30 Lions: Cowboys had 13-point fourth quarter lead, still led at two-minute warning.
3) Week 5, 20-16 Patriots: New England scored game-winning touchdown with :22 left.
4) Week 8, 34-7 Eagles: Blowout.
5) Week 13, 19-13 Cardinals: Head coach Jason Garrett ices his own kicker, Cowboys lose in overtime.
6) Week 14, 37-34 Giants: Cowboys led by 12 with 5:00 left.
There are five heart-breakers in there, games that the opponent didn't win until the final two minutes. Tight wins over San Francisco, Miami, and Washington (twice) confirm that the Cowboys aren't just a bunch of chokers, or at least not exclusively. But I don't think this is just balance — yeah, most teams win about half of their close games, and Dallas is 4/9 — the Cowboys have repeatedly given away games that they probably should have won, with horrendous coaching decisions or unforgivable turnovers or mind-boggling defensive breakdowns, or some combination. Does that mean this team is better than its record? Probably, I guess, but doesn't a truly great team manage to hold the lead most of the time, win the ones it should? Felix Jones played well this week, but it can't be good news that DeMarco Murray fractured his ankle in the loss.
16. Detroit Lions [14] — Up 21-0 in the first quarter, 31-14 at halftime, and 34-21 as late as the fourth quarter, they almost gave the game away, finally winning with the help of what appeared to be a facemask penalty missed by the officials. My favorite stat from the game: rushing first downs. Minnesota 17, Detroit 1. When's the last time a team won with 16 fewer rushing first downs than its opponent?
17. Cincinnati Bengals [13] — In Week 7, I noted that the statistically elite defense, then 4th in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed, hadn't really played any good offenses. Today, I think the team's stats (12th in points allowed and 7th in yards) more accurately reflect the talent here: a defense that is good, but not exceptional.
18. San Diego Chargers [21] — Back-to-back games scoring over 30 points and winning by more than 20. If they win two of the last three and finish 8-8, will that save Norv Turner's job? Maybe. With so many other teams firing coaches, how many better choices will be available? The Chargers are 6-3 when Shaun Phillips plays. They went 0-4 without him.
19. Philadelphia Eagles [22] — Scored 24 points in the second quarter, 2 points in the other 50 minutes combined. Michael Vick did not play particularly well in his first game back from injury (69.9 passer rating, 9 rush yards), but the defense came away with 9 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, an interception, a safety, and 3 stops on fourth down. Trent Cole and Jason Babin finished with 3 sacks apiece.
20. Miami Dolphins [17] — I hate firing coaches in the middle of the season What was so important about getting rid of Tony Sparano that it couldn't wait three weeks? The Dolphins have won four of their last six games, outscoring opponents 149-80 during that span. How do you promise you're going to keep the guy when he starts 0-7, then can him when the team is on a roll?
21. Chicago Bears [15] — Marion Barber has a lot of people trying to make him feel better right now, so I'm going to go the opposite direction. Barber personally cost the Bears a game that could easily be the difference in whether or not they make the playoffs. Yeah, yeah, it's a team loss. Only one dude ran out of bounds when they were trying to milk the clock, then fumbled in overtime to set up the Broncos' game-winning field goal. The Bears are 0-3 without Jay Cutler.
22. Carolina Panthers [24] — Squandered a 23-7 halftime lead, the second straight loss in which the team led by double-digits after two quarters. As many things as Cam Newton has done right this season, I believe it's been a real mistake not to invest more in the running game. Both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart average about five yards a carry, yet they only average 18.5 attempts per game, combined. Only the Buccaneers have fewer carries by running backs this season.
23. Oakland Raiders [20] — Carson Palmer has shown us moments of brilliance this year, but Sunday was his third game of the season with three or more interceptions. Palmer's passer rating has been below 80 in five of his seven appearances, and overall he's at 70.8. That's 30th in the NFL, between Rex Grossman (71.8) and Curtis Painter (66.6). The Raiders gave up a fortune to get Palmer, but if I were an Oakland fan, I'd want to see an open competition between Jason Campbell and Palmer in the 2012 preseason.
24. Buffalo Bills [23] — Traded Marshawn Lynch for fourth- and fifth-round draft picks. Kept C.J. Spiller.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars [29] — Prior to this week, Jacksonville's highest-scoring games were 20, 17, and 16. They scored more points in the second quarter against Tampa (28) than in any whole game, eventually more than doubling (41) their previous high. Maurice Jones-Drew, who scored 4 TDs in Week 14, is on pace for 341 rushes this season, far more than any other season in his career (312, 2009). Why did he get 7 carries when the Jags were up by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter? Why was he still taking handoffs with a 21-point lead and under 3:00 remaining?
Wait, I've got it figured out. Mel Tucker has MJD in fantasy, and Week 14 is the playoffs, dog. He needed that fourth touchdown to be sure his team (Tucker's Troopers) advanced. I mean, there's no other explanation for running your franchise RB into the ground when the outcome is clearly decided.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [25] — Started 3-1, then lost to San Francisco by 45, foreshadowing a losing skid that now stands at seven games. Last season, Josh Freeman threw just 6 interceptions, with a sterling 1.3% INT percentage. This year, he's already thrown three times as many picks: 18 INTs, 4.1%.
27. Washington Redskins [27] — They haven't quit, but there are just way too many mistakes. Rex Grossman holding the ball for an hour in his own end zone. Graham Gano kicking off out of bounds. DeAngelo Hall literally standing and watching Gronkowski break tackles. Santana Moss shoveling a pass to Jerod Mayo for the final interception. It's just this endless litany of errors.
28. Cleveland Browns [30] — I believe Seneca Wallace is the best quarterback on the Browns' roster, and I've been a vocal advocate for taking concussions more seriously, so of course I don't think Colt McCoy should have gone back in. But what I really want to talk about is the play-calling. The announcers questioned Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin for going for a touchdown on 4th-and-goal. But no one questioned Pat Shurmur for settling for a field goal in the same situation. When you're playing a better team, you need to take some chances, and you have to make your opportunities count. If the Browns had scored a touchdown there, it might be 7-7 in the fourth quarter, and instead of forcing a throw to the end zone, McCoy plays it safe and the Browns kick a go-ahead field goal with 3:00 left.
Since 2010, Wallace's passer rating with Cleveland is 89.1 (about the same as Matt Ryan). McCoy's is 74.5 (about the same as Christian Ponder). That's with the same offensive line, same receivers.
29. Kansas City Chiefs [26] — Fired head coach Todd Haley after less than three seasons. Haley took over a team that was 2-14, doubled that win total in his first year, and led the team to a division title in his second season. The Chiefs were 5-8 this year, including some embarrassing losses, but they were coming off an upset win against Chicago and have dealt with devastating injuries to key players all season. Maybe there's some behind-the-scenes reason Haley had to go, but from a football standpoint, this seems awfully hasty. Defensive coordinator and former Browns HC Romeo Crennel replaces Haley for the final three weeks.
30. Minnesota Vikings [28] — Everyone's talking about Joe Webb. I want to talk about Jared Allen, who just had his fifth multi-sack game of the season. Allen leads the NFL with 17.5 sacks, already a career-high, and is on pace to become the first player with more than 20 sacks in a season since Michael Strahan in 2001. Allen also has 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, an interception, and a safety.
31. St. Louis Rams [31] — As horrendous as this team is, how stunning is it that they beat the Saints in Week 8?
32. Indianapolis Colts [32] — Another glorious fourth-quarter comeback. After gaining 53 yards and 3 points in the first three quarters, the Colts exploded for 101 yards and a touchdown in the final 15:00. From 1998-2010 (the Peyton Manning years), the Colts averaged 26.6 points per game, 19.4 when he was a rookie and at least 21.8 every year since. This season, that average is 14.2. Manning can't really be worth two touchdowns a game, can he?
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