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December 31, 2011

2011: Dickens Flummoxed

When Vin Scully and Joe Garagiola called the 1986 World Series for NBC television, their recurring theme harked to Dickens: it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Baseball's 2011 season — during which it seemed New York, perhaps inexplicably, was anxious to think of anything but the silver anniversary of those rapacious Mets — was much like that.

Beginning with the worst of times—the unconscionable beating of a San Francisco Giants fan in the parking lot of a security-challenged Dodger Stadium; the tragic falling death of a Texas Rangers fan trying to spear a ball for his little son tossed by Josh Hamilton. Concluding with the best, or at least the most surrealistic of times — the final day of the regular season, right down to Evan Longoria's walk-off home run; and the final two games of the World Series, where Game 6 itself was the worst of times shoved to the best when the St. Louis Cardinals recovered from two down-to-their-last-strike moments to win on … a walk-off home run.

The Dodger/Giant rivalry over time has been described as a duel to the death, but not until Opening Day 2011 had the metaphor become literal. Then Bryan Stow was beaten senseless and almost to death for the heinous crime of showing up in a Giants jersey. While Stow fought for his life, and in due course began to succeed in recovering it in steps and phases, the assault helped further expose the incompetence of the Dodgers' owner, who had carved back stadium security grotesquely enough, was about to be exposed for using the Dodgers as what some (including, reputedly, the Internal Revenue Service) called his personal ATM machine, and would file for bankruptcy within three months.

After the season, Frank McCourt finally agreed to sell the team. Causing some to wonder why commissioner Bud Selig was as determined to drive McCourt out of baseball as he was to keep the financially-compromised Wilpons — caught, perhaps unwittingly, in the Bernie Madoff contretemps, with a receiver trying to determine whether they knew what Madoff was up (or down) to — from losing the Mets.

Shannon Stone asked for nothing more than his 6-year-old son's hero to toss him a ball during a July game. Josh Hamilton was nothing more than cooperative. He tossed the ball, the elder Stone reached for it, and fell to his death over a Rangers Ballpark railing. It couldn't compensate for losing his father, but little Cooper Stone received one salve for his loss–he threw out the ceremonial first pitch opening the Rangers/Tampa Bay Rays division series. To Hamilton. Accompanied by Nolan Ryan. During the offseason, it transpired that the elder Stone's parents wrote to Hamilton asking him to please not stop tossing balls to fans in the stands.

Derek Jeter temporarily silenced critics of his decline when he finally nailed his 3,000th major league hit and rather dramatically at that, with a long home run in Yankee Stadium early on a 5-for-5 day. For Yankee fans it was more than enough, even if some of them insisted there should have been scheduling manipulation to guarantee Jeter would get the milestone at home. For Jeter, it may not have been enough to make his the big individual day of the year. Not with Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay, becoming only the fourth player in history to nail at least seven hits and ten runs batted in on the same day, which he did during a 28 April doubleheader. Or Zobrist's teammate, Longoria, erasing memories of his early season injury and slump when he homered twice, including the walk-off, to secure the Boston Red Sox's stupefying from-up-nine-games collapse out of the wild card picture—though he needed help from a .108 hitter wrapping a game-tier around the foul pole to get there. Which may yet take some of the sting out of the Atlanta Braves's collapse, which was from a mere eight games up in the wild card chase.

We probably should have known how squirrelly this year's postseason was going to go with one of the little critters making it literal during a St. Louis/Philadelphia division series game. The 1986 Mets went from down to their final strike in Game 6 of the World Series to heading for Game 7. The 2011 Cardinals, who'd returned from the land of the living dead in the National League's wild card picture, were down to their final strike twice in Game 6. Except that David Freese rifled a triple just past Nelson Cruz with the Rangers in the no-doubles defense in the ninth, Lance Berkman dumped an RBI single into center field in the tenth, and Freese hit the first pitch of the bottom of the eleventh over the fence. Sending it to Game 7, where the Cardinals triumphed after a Series dominated by close scores, managers outsmarting themselves, and reasonable baseball including but not limited to Albert Pujols's hitting three bombs in Game 3 after the sixth inning.

Triumphant manager Tony La Russa, who almost blew the Series when he got his bullpen priorities mixed up, retired two days after the staggering triumph. Pujols signed for $254 million and 10 years with the Los Angeles Angels, whose surrender of catcher Mike Napoli the previous winter ended up helping push the Rangers toward the postseason in the first place. The Miami Marlins spent just as big and maybe bigger in the offseason, including for Jose Reyes, the National League's batting champion and one of the faces of the paralyzed Mets.

The Yankees and the Red Sox weren't even in the big spending off-season picture. The Red Sox may yet recover from The Collapse, if only the Nation would allow them to forget how the inmates took over the asylum and compelled their most successful manager ever to resign before he could be executed. The National League's Most Valuable Player turned up as a positive test for excess testosterone after the regular season, and though it may turn out to have been caused by legitimate medication the woofing and warping to withdraw his award ramped up in earnest. The Mets, who have enough problems getting back to the foot of the mountain, were compelled to wire a pitcher asking him not even to think about conquering Mt. Kilmanjaro.

Jerry Meals made a meal out of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who were in the middle of a surprising surge (they actually occupied first place in their division for a brief but exciting spell), when he called Atlanta's Julio Lugo safe at the plate despite Pirates catcher Michael McKenry getting the tag on Lugo's leg in the bottom of the 19th. It broke the Pirates' surging spirit, won the Braves a ball game, and renewed calls for more replay, including one from Meals himself. Joe Torre, once a multiple World Series-winning manager, now a baseball government official, crowed about not wishing to eliminate "the human factor." What a surprise from a man who'd been helped unconscionably by a 12-year-old fan denying an Oriole outfielder's catch in a postseason contest once upon a time.

Jack McKeon was crazy enough to return to managing the Florida Marlins after Edwin Rodriguez was canned. He was even crazier enough to actually bench Hanley Ramirez for showing up late to a team meeting. Jim Riggleman walked out of his job as the Washington Nationals' manager after general manager Mike Rizzo declined to discuss his 2012 option — and after the Nats had just won eleven of 12. Davey Johnson, a man with a resume for winning and getting fired, sometimes in the same season, was named his successor. In between, John McLaren managed one game in the interim — and was ejected in the eighth inning. Mike Quade lost the Cub clubhouse and, in due course, his job; the Cubs, who hired Theo Epstein after the architect of the Red Sox cursebusters high-tailed it off the sunken ship, did not hire Ryne Sandberg (again), who'd spent five years managing successfully in their system before leaving to manage in the Phillies', to succeed him. The Cardinals and the White Sox hired new managers with three levels of managing experience between them: jack, diddley, and squat.

One Justine Siegel threw batting practice to eight Cleveland Indians in spring training, the first woman to do it. Carlos Santana turned the season's first triple play. Manny Being Manny meant retiring in April rather than face a second drug-related suspension, then petitioning for reinstatement in the off-season — because he couldn't play in the winter Dominican leagues otherwise. Kevin Gregg of the Orioles declared war on the Red Sox with three inside pitches. Carlos Zambrano declared war on the Atlanta Braves — after surrendering back-to-back bombs and decking Chipper Jones — before cleaning out his Wrigley Field locker and announcing his retirement following his ejection. Mark Teixiera declared himself the all-time single-game switch-hitting home run champion when he did it for the twelfth time in his career. Jim Thome became the senior citizen of the 600 home run club, hitting the milestone mash at the tender age of 40.

On the actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances front further, Roger Clemens' perjury trial ended in a hung jury; Barry Bonds was convicted of obstruction of justice and sentenced to a year's probation and a month's house arrest. On the arms race front, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw won their leagues' respective pitching triple crowns; Verlander threw in the American League's Most Valuable Player award for good measure. On the Hall of Fame front, Ron Santo was finally enshrined — posthumously — by a revamped Veterans Committee, while the Baseball Writers Association of America got to wrestle with a weak enough freshman ballot and a few troublesome ballot returns. Nobody said life was perfect.

Four Tigers — Ryan Raburn, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Delmon Young — open the bottom of the sixth in Game 5 of the American League Championship Series by hitting for an unprecedented postseason sequential cycle: single, double, triple, home run. Three days earlier, one Ranger — Nelson Cruz — meant one walk-off grand slam, another postseason first. Three Yankees (Robinson Cano, Russell Martin, Curtis Granderson) hit grand slams in the same 22-9 rout of Oakland, a first in baseball history. The Mariano broke the career saves record and looking only slightly like his age doing it.

Death, as usual, would not be denied even in 2011. George Crowe was the first baseman the Cincinnati All-Star ballot-box stuffers forgot in 1957 — but who made the all-star team a year later. Ryne Duren was famous for glasses that resembled the bottoms of Coca-Cola bottles, a fastball with a mind of its own as often as not, and a long but ultimately successful battle with another kind of bottle. Marty Marion was the greatest defensive shortstop of the 1940s and, at least until Ozzie Smith's advent, in the history of the Cardinals, if not the game itself. Duke Snider was Brooklyn's matinee idol during the Boys of Summer generation. Harmon Killebrew was probably the most inappropriately-nicknamed man in the game in his time and place; few were gentler or friendlier than the Killer.

Mike Flanagan was an Oriole pitcher of renown, father of the world's second in-vitro birth, and a long-suffering Oriole executive and broadcaster whose suicide shocked no less than that of Hideki Irabu, who couldn't live up to his hype and couldn't live down a Steinbrennerian insult. ("Fat pussy toad.") Greg Goossen went from a Stengelese Met ("Now here's a fella named Goossen, he's only 20 and in 10 years he has a chance to be 30." — Casey Stengel) to original Seattle Pilot to becoming Gene Hackman's film stand-in. Merritt Ranew went from original Houston Colt .45 to original Pilot and to unfortunate immortality the hard way: he was once poleaxed from behind with a bat by … the on-deck hitter, after Ranew ran to aid his pitcher in a minor league brawl, resulting in paralysis to the right side of his face. Matty Alou listened to Harry Walker, picked up a heavier bat, and went from just one of the Alou brothers to a National League batting champion. Bob Forsch, a solid veteran pitcher, was the only Cardinal pitcher not to melt down during Game 7 of the 1985 World Series, and threw out the ceremonial first pitch for this year's Game 7.

Dick Williams turned a Red Sox country club into a chain gang, won the 1967 American League pennant, and eventually led two of the three consecutive "Mustache Gang" Oakland Athletics World Series champions. Paul Splittorff was the first 20-game winner in Kansas City Royals history before becoming a beloved Royals broadcaster. Chuck Tanner, the original schmooze manager, nearly yanked the 1972 White Sox to the American League pennant, managed the "Fam-I-Lee" Pirates to the 1979 World Series rings, then fiddled while his roster burned with drug problems. Gus Zernial was nicknamed Ozark Ike, hit some long home runs, and introduced Joe DiMaggio to Marilyn Monroe. Wes Covington was a minor-league callup who helped mean the pennant for the 1957 Milwaukee Braves.

Roy Hartsfield managed the Blue Jays for their first three seasons of life. Red Borom was the oldest living former Tiger. Cliff Dapper was the only player in major league history to be traded (by the Brooklyn Dodgers, to the minor-league Atlanta Crackers) for a broadcaster (Ernie Harwell). Gino Cimoli was the first man to bat in regulation competition in a Los Angeles Dodgers' uniform. Wally Yonamine was the first American to play baseball in Japan after World War II and the first Asian-American to play in the National Football League. Lou Gorman helped build the ill-fated 1986 Boston Red Sox pennant-winner. Emilio Navarro was major league baseball's first Puerto Rican-born player and the oldest known former professional player at 105. Mel Queen went from outfielder to pitcher to helping build the Blue Jays' farm that helped produce back-to-back World Series champions. Charlie Lea was the first Frenchman to throw a major league no-hitter.

Eddie Joost, who forged a 17-season playing career with his glove at shortstop, was the last living member of the 1940 Reds World Series winners and, in hand, the last man alive who had been on a World Series winner prior to 1941. Jim Northrup hit the triple over Curt Flood's head that broke Bob Gibson's Game 7 shutout and launched the Tigers toward their 1968 World Series triumph. And Charlie Metro, who once bragged about being a .400 hitter in his two major league seasons (".200 in each season") was one of the Cubs' infamous College of Coaches experiment of rotating head coaches in place of a full-time manager from 1961-65, about which he offered its most pointed epitaph: "Occasionally, the team would play real well, but then they'd rotate the coaches again." Only the Cubs...

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 6:33 PM | Comments (2)

December 30, 2011

The Healing Hoosiers

Certain things aren't supposed to happen.

Oh sure, we love sports because in one trial of a grand experiment, any outcome is possible. But eventually the improbable yields to repetition and order is restored. Michigan wins more football games than it loses, Roger Federer beats the upstart the next five times they play, and the Yankees make the playoffs.

That pattern is what has made Indiana's basketball revival this season so sweet.

Indiana, along with Kentucky, is one of two states in the country where football does not merely allow basketball to exist. Rather, in those two states, the onset of winter signifies the inception of the prime sports season, not its annual demise.

For a fan base that has endured the firing of a legend, a marring NCAA-violation scandal, and a program-worst level of performance, this is the way things are supposed to be.

Certain things aren't supposed to happen.

To many, Indiana basketball began in 1971 when Bob Knight took over the program, though the program did win the NCAA championship twice before his arrival. And yet, after missing the NCAA tournament four times in his first eight years in Bloomington, Knight only missed the Big Dance once more in his final 21 seasons. Even Knight's replacement, Mike Davis, rode what remained of his predecessor's foundation to another three tournament appearances to start his career. For three solid decades, Indiana was as much a part of March as St. Patrick and Spring Training.

But as the glow of Knight's early success faded, Indiana receded. From the 1994-95 season through 2005-06 (Davis' last), the Hoosiers only avoided losing double digits once, and other than Davis' run to the National Final in his second year, Indiana never got past the tournament's first weekend. The program that once demanded respect on an annual basis had become a toothless monolith.

Certain things aren't supposed to happen.

Kelvin Sampson arrived at Indiana with the hope of a fresh start. For a program dominated by one man and his shadow, Sampson's success at Oklahoma seemed like a chance to rebrand Indiana for new success while leveraging that from its past. And after a hope-inspiring first year, Sampson's program seemed to be on the rise. With its legacy of success, its rabid fan base, and a nationally prominent coach, the Hoosiers seemed poised to regain their place atop the Big Ten.

Then 2008 happened.

Sampson, already firmly scolded by the NCAA for violations surrounding recruiting calls at Oklahoma, was forced out as additional details of violations at Indiana surfaced. His ousting was both public and sloppy, as whispers from school officials leaked through a startlingly cracked upper hierarchy. The program that had prided itself on respect and integrity during its banner years was facing the shame of not just failing to meet those values but flagrantly violating them.

Certain things aren't supposed to happen.

While Tom Crean's arrival in 2008 to clean up Sampson's mess earned high marks for its long-view, it quickly became clear the exodus of talent from the program after the 2007-08 season was going to take time to overcome. In Crean's first three seasons, his squads all lost at least 20 games. While Crean's teams played more games than prior Hoosier teams, these were dark results. No Hoosier coach had ever lost 18 games in a season.

In less than 10 years, Indiana fell from perennial tournament invitee to one of the worst programs in Division I.

Certain things aren't supposed to happen.

On December 10, Crean's fourth team faced top-ranked Kentucky in Bloomington. The Hoosiers were undefeated, and while their resume was padded by typical pre-Christmas fodder, double-digit wins over Butler and NC State provided some reasonable basis for the home fans to dream of an upset. Still, the Wildcats brought a cast of outrageously talented young players that easily outclassed the Hoosiers on paper and NBA draft boards.

But as Indiana disregarded convention and hung around with Kentucky, it was clear belief grew within its fans. Yes, they began to believe (and were proven correct, it would turn out) that IU would provide the most shocking win of the young season, an improbable buzzer-beating stunner that showed rushing the court could still be cool. But more than that, though, they believed Indiana was back at least within the college basketball theater, if not yet its main stage.

Indiana's 12 wins before entering Big Ten play match Crean's high mark over an entire season. And while the schedules Howards and Stetsons will be upgraded to Ohio States and Wisconsins, wins like the shocker over Kentucky and eyebrow-raisers over Notre Dame and Butler give the Hoosiers plenty of credibility.

After an unthinkably tumultuous decade, it seems Indiana basketball is finally back. Maybe the glory days of Knight are a reach right now, but the path for Indiana to return to the NCAA tournament is fairly simple. A .500 record in conference (or, possibly, even a shade under) should lead the Hoosiers back where they expect to be in March for the first time in four seasons. And who knows? With a favorable draw and decent injury luck, the Hoosiers might get out of the tournament's first weekend this March.

Whatever the outcome, this college basketball season will be better if Crean and the Hoosiers can keep winning. Just as college football benefits when Alabama and Notre Dame are good, college basketball suffers when historic programs like UCLA, the Tobacco Roaders, and Indiana plunge below their typical standards.

Certain things aren't supposed to happen.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 5:17 PM | Comments (0)

December 29, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 17

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-10)

The Eagles knew before last Saturday's game in Dallas that their playoffs hopes were dashed. Nevertheless, Philadelphia whipped the Cowboys, 20-7, and with a win over the Redskins, will finish the year 8-8.

"Interestingly enough," Andy Reid said, "we were out of the postseason before we started on Sunday, as opposed to the beginning of the year, when we were in the postseason before we started.

"But 8-8 is nothing to be ashamed of. It's a reachable goal, and, more importantly, our first attainable goal of the year. I didn't make the Super Bowl, but I've been there, which should be enough to keep my job."

The Redskins are 5-10, and regardless of Sunday's outcome, will finish last in the NFC East.

"Rex Grossman predicted the Redskins would win the East," Mike Shanahan said. "Nearly everyone else predicted the Eagles would. With all these 'great expectations,' it's no wonder both teams had a 'Dickens' of a time fulfilling them."

Philadelphia wins, 24-17.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (-5)

The Colts shocked the Texans 19-16 last Thursday night in Indianapolis, giving Indy its second consecutive win. The Colts could make it three in a row with a win in Jacksonville, but doing so could jeopardize their positioning to select Andrew Luck in April's NFL draft.

"We can win for losing," Jim Caldwell said, "and can lose for winning. A win would be an historic moment in Indy football lore. In years past, we've basically rested starters for the final weeks of the season. Who can remember the last time the Colts had three meaningful wins in December?"

Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew leads the NFL in rushing with 1,437 yards, and has been one of the few positives in a dreadful year for the Jaguars. Jones-Drew holds a 128 yard lead on Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy.

"MoJo' is one bad mofo," Mel Tucker said. "It even says so on his wallet. We plan to make sure Maurice wins the rushing title, and if we have to run up the score to do so, then it won't be the first time this year that was done to get a Drew a record."

The Colts get their final win of the year, at the opening coin toss. They wisely elect to "receive" Andrew Luck, and play like a team possessed, of the No. 1 pick.

Jones-Drew rushes for 141 yards, finding holes aplenty in the Indy defense, and easily wins the rushing title.

Jaguars win, 27-17.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (+3)

The Ravens built a 20-0 lead last week before surviving a Cleveland rally in a 20-14 Baltimore win. With a win in Cincinnati or a Pittsburgh loss to Cleveland, the Ravens would lock up the AFC North title and a first-round bye.

"Right now," John Harbaugh said, "we don't scare anyone, except Ravens' fans. Our defense no longer commands the respect it once did. Heck, we don't intimidate, we intimate that we scare people."

The 9-6 Bengals currently hold the AFC's last playoff spot, and can secure a post-season berth with a win over the Ravens.

"Jerome Simpson's incredible somersault into the end zone is all the rage," Marvin Lewis said. "Unfortunately, that got people out of their seats, which is a big problem here in the Jungle. Hopefully, fans will make this game a sellout, so it can be broadcast. Thus the game, like Simpson, will be 'air' borne.

"Amazingly, had Jerome flipped after scoring, he would have been flagged for excessive celebration."

If the No. 2 seed (and possibly the No. 1 seed, should New England stumble against Buffalo) isn't enough to motivate the Ravens, then they don't deserve the win, or the catcalls of a sold out Paul Brown Stadium crowd, many of whom resemble empty seats. The Baltimore defense shows up, makes a statement, and Baltimore eats the clock with their running game.

Ravens win, 23-17.

NY Jets @ Miami (-1)

The Jets flopped last week's "Battle of New York's," falling to the Giants 29-14, a loss that seriously damaged the Jets' playoff hopes. Now, the Jets need a win and lots of help to take the AFC's No. 6 seed.

"Brandon Jacobs and I had a heated conversation after the game," Ryan said. "He called me 'fat.' I called him some things, but 'liar' wasn't one of them. But I deserve all the criticism coming to me. I've talked up the Jets from the start. The problem is, no one's buying it, not even my team. As for the playoffs, we're quite uneasy. We're sweating bullets, and that's not good, especially for Plaxico Burress."

Miami blew a 17-0 lead in New England last week and lost 27-24 to the Patriots. The Dolphins are 5-10 and 5-3 after an 0-7 start.

"It's the year of the interim coach," Todd Bowles said. "Or should I say it's the month of the interim coach. From what I hear, there's a lot of interest in the Miami coaching job. That is, until general manager Jeff Ireland makes his spiel, then the interest wanes. Nobody wants to work for him. The Dolphin front office, much like the Dolphin team, knows how to blow a 'lead.'"

In a pre-game motivational speech, Ryan red flags his own team, a finally, after a season of rousing everyone but his team, challenges the Jets to perform to their capabilities, then quickly corrects himself, and challenges them to perform above their capabilities.

New York wins, 24-20.

Carolina @ New Orleans (-10)

The Saints blitzed the Falcons 45-16 on Monday night, sewing up the NFC South crown as Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's 27-year-old yardage record. New Orleans holds the No. 3 seed, but could overtake the No. 2 seed with a win and a 49ers loss in St. Louis.

"We meant no disrespect to the Falcons by running up the score to get the record," Brees said. "But they got it anyway."

Cam Newton made history in his own right, breaking Peyton Manning's rookie passing record in the Panthers' 48-14 win over the Buccaneers last week. With 107 yards through the air on Sunday, Newton would reach 4,000 yards passing.

"There's a 'No. 1' on my jersey," Newton said, "and an NFL passing record in my pocket. Just call me the 'Uno Bomber.'"

New Orleans plays the percentages, and the percentages of the Rams beating the 49ers are as low as the percentages of the Falcons converting a fourth and one from their own 29. Brees throws for two scores in the first quarter, then the starters sit.

Panthers win, 31-24.

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-11)

The Falcons lost big to the Saints in New Orleans on Monday night, 45-16, as Drew Brees passed for 307 yards and broke Dan Marino's season passing yardage record of 5,084. Atlanta currently holds the NFC's sixth seed, and if the seeds hold, would face the Saints in New Orleans again in a wild card playoff game.

"Did the Saints run up the score on us to get Brees the record?" Mike Smith asked. "Of course they did, but we diplomatically said it didn't bother us. We lied. The Saints will find out that revenge is a dish best served cold, with a side of 'beef.'"

Tampa is 4-11 and has lost nine in a row, the NFL's longest active losing streak.

"I've been unable to right the ship," Raheem Morris said. "Soon, though, I'll be able to say I have left the ship. I'm not sure where I'll be next year, but I'm sure I'll have to walk the plank to get there."

Falcons win, 38-17.

Detroit @ Green Bay (-5)

Aaron Rodger passed for 5 touchdowns in Green Bay's 35-18 win over the Bears last week, clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoff. Rodgers also likely clinched the MVP award with his performance.

"Three of those five touchdowns were two-yard passes," Rodgers said. "What does that say about our running game? Nothing. That's also the same thing we get from our running game. They say you have to run to set up the pass. That's quite apparent in Green Bay, because second and long is a passing down."

The Lions have clinched a wildcard spot and would secure the No. 5 seed with a win or a Falcons loss. Last week, Detroit whipped the Chargers 38-10 after a pre-game scrum between Lions center Dominic Raiola and San Diego's Antwan Barnes.

"Barnes head-butted me," Raiola said. "I'm already a little 'touched in the head;' that just sent me over the top."

The last time the Lions and Packers met, it was Thanksgiving. Turkey was being served, and so was Lion, in a 27-12 Green Bay win. In that game, the Lions didn't show up. This time, the Packers don't, as they rest their starters.

Detroit wins, 34-24.

San Francisco @ St. Louis (+10½)

David Akers kicked four field goals last week in the 49ers' 19-17 win in Seattle last week. Akers, the NFL's scoring leader, set an NFL record with his 42nd field goal of the year, breaking Neal Racker's 2005 record of 41. At 12-3, San Fran could clinch the NFC's No. 2 seed with a win in St. Louis.

"We could sure use that bye week," Jim Harbaugh said, "so Akers can rest his leg. He's one of only two players in the league monitored with a 'kick count.' The other is Ndamukong Suh. Akers kicks left-footed. Suh kicks right arms."

The 2-13 Rams are tied with the Colts for the worst record in the league. The Colts hold the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL draft, but an Indy win and Rams loss would give St. Louis the top pick.

"Either way," Steve Spagnuolo said, "we'll have the No. 1 or No. 2 pick. That's been the case in four of the last five years. I guess it's true what they say: 'St. Louis is known for its 'draft.'"

With a bye week hanging in the balance, the 49ers aim to make quick work of Rams, thus allowing their starters a lengthy, second-half rest. For San Fran, "quick work" is taking a 12-0 lead on four Akers' field goals. That's called getting off on the left foot. 49ers coast the rest of the way.

San Francisco wins, 22-9.

Buffalo @ New England (-13)

With a win over the 6-9 Bills, the Patriots would clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. New England spotted the Dolphins a 17-point lead before storming back for a 27-24 win.

"It's important we're home for the playoffs," Tom Brady said. "Our defense seems to play better at home. And judging by the NFL's team defense statistics, our defense has 'stayed home' all year.

"I fully expect us to beat the Bills and secure home-field throughout the playoffs. This year, the AFC championship, much like opposing offenses, goes through New England."

The Bills whipped the Broncos 40-14 last week, intercepting Tim Tebow 4 times. Tom Brady and the Patriots will be looking to avenge a Week 3 loss in Buffalo.

"We weren't intimidated at all by the Tim Tebow mystique," Chan Gailey said. "No, that's not Tebow's new cologne. Tebow's new cologne is 'Heaven Scent,' and it smells divine."

New England wins, 34-27.

Chicago @ Minnesota (-1)

Chicago was eliminated from playoff contention with Sunday night's 35-18 loss in Green Bay. The Bears have lost five in a row and are 7-8 in the NFC North.

"We obviously can't win without Jay Cutler," Lovie Smith said. "We're not the same team without him. Jay may have left Kristin Cavillari at the altar, but he altered us when he left. If your depth chart consists of Caleb Hanie and Luke McCown, you're by no means 'two deep.' In fact, you're 'too deep' to get out."

The Vikings lost Adrian Peterson to a devastating knee injury in a 30-23 win over the Redskins last week. Peterson tore his ACL and MCL, and quarterback Christian Ponder suffered a concussion.

"The sky is falling," Leslie Frazier said. "No, that's not a commentary on our injury situation. The sky is falling, or the roof of Mall of America Stadium is caving in. The white stuff is falling. That's a sure sign that winter is here, or we just found Sam Hurd's stash."

Minnesota wins, 24-15.

Tennessee @ Houston (+1)

The Titans beat the Jaguars 23-17 last Sunday to keep their playoff chances alive. To get in, Tennessee must first beat the Texans, who have clinched the AFC South and the No. 3 seed. The Titans also need the Bengals to lose, and either a Jets win or both a Broncos win and Raiders win, but not all three.

"You could say our playoff hopes are 'faint,'" Mike Munchak. "In other words, if we make the playoffs, I'll faint. I think we have the most difficult road to the playoffs. Why? Because either the Jets have to win, or two AFC West teams have to win."

The Texans have nothing to gain by a win, and will likely rest the majority of their starters on Sunday.

"This is virgin territory for us," Gary Kubiak said. "Resting players during the season is a concept that's foreign to me. It's usually after.

"We secured the AFC South division title quite early. Hopefully, nerves won't be an issue once the playoffs start. I don't want our sphincters clenched nearly as tightly as our playoff spot was clinched."

Tennessee wins, 28-17.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+7½)

The Steelers have clinched a playoff spot, but could still win the AFC North and a first-round bye with a win and a Baltimore loss in Cincinnati. In Week 14, Pittsburgh beat the Browns 14-3 in Cleveland behind a dominating defense.

"James Harrison is coming to town," Mike Tomlin. "And, if the long list of Browns KO'ed by No. 92 is any indication, Harrison will be going to town, as well. Harrison is a unique individual. He's the only player to openly mock Roger Goodell, and the only player to trash talk a team's medical staff."

The Browns are 4-11, with three of their four wins coming at home. An upset of the Steelers would end any chance of Pittsburgh winning the AFC North.

"If I feel froggy," Colt McCoy said, "I'll jump. If I feel groggy, I'll sit. You've just bore witness to the Cleveland Browns concussion test."

McCoy passes the Browns lenient concussion tests, and is cleared to play, but decides to sit out, citing "daddy" issues.

Pittsburgh wins, 22-13.

Kansas City @ Denver (-3½)

The Chiefs, who ended Green Bay's bid for a perfect season in Week 15, could knock the Broncos out of the playoffs with a win in Denver. Kyle Orton, who was waived by the Broncos in November, could knock his former team out of the postseason.

"Nothing would please me more than to 'wave' back," Orton said. "I could come back to haunt the Broncos, but that's only if you believe in ghosts. I'm not sure if Broncos fans believe in ghosts, but they do believe in holy ghosts."

The Broncos were demolished 40-14 in Buffalo last week, suffering their second consecutive loss. Tim Tebow threw four second-half interceptions in a mistake-filled game that left the door open in the AFC West. With a win or a Raiders loss, the Broncos clinch the division.

"I don't think we devised a practical game plan for Tebow," John Fox said. "That's our fault, not his. We, as coaches, have to do a better job. If there's one thing Tim believes in, it's 'intelligent design.' I expect improvement on our part as well as Tim's. But, for Christ's sake, don't tell him he's 'evolved' as a quarterback."

Chiefs win, 24-22.

San Diego @ Oakland (-3)

Oakland could win the AFC West with a victory over the Chargers and a Denver loss to the Chiefs. The Raiders could also clinch the final wildcard spot with a win and either/both a Titans loss and/or a Jets win.

"The AFC playoff implications are confusing," Hue Jackson said. "Ask Sebastian Janikowski and he'll tell you they're difficult to wrap his head around. Unfortunately for Janikowski, GHB only helps females wrap their legs around him, and won't do a darn thing to help him understand the playoff situations. But, by golly, he's going to give it a try."

The Chargers were eliminated from playoff contention with last week's 38-10 loss in Detroit. At 7-8 and after yet another season that failed to meet expectations, many consider Norv Turner's time in San Diego limited.

"That's not true," Philip Rivers said. "We're all 100% behind Norv. And pushing."

Raiders win, 27-21.

Seattle @ Arizona (-3)

While the playoffs are out of the question, Sunday's contest in Glendale gives the winner second place in the NFC West and an 8-8 record, and the always-wrong assessment as "next year's breakout team."

"Kevin Kolb was supposed to be the answer in Arizona," Ken Whisenhunt said. "Au contraire, he's been the 'questionable.' He's only played in nine games this year. It appears his status as 'doubtful' or 'questionable' is 'probable.'"

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 13-10 in Week 3, and could complete the season sweep with a win in Glendale.

"We'd like to finish the season on a high note," Pete Carroll said. "Reggie Bush once started a season on a high note, with a suitcase full of 'C' notes."

Seattle wins, 23-20.

Dallas @ NY Giants (-3)

It's winner-take-all in MetLife Stadium on Sunday, as the victor in the Cowboys/Giants clash wins the NFC East and secures the NFC's No. 4 seed. The G-Men beat the Cowboys 37-34 in Dallas in Week 14.

"Unless Dirk Nowitzki suits up for the Cowboys," Brandon Jacobs said, "I don't think the Cowboys have what it takes to win it all. In Dallas, it's the Mavs, and the 'Mav-nots.'

"This one's for all the marbles. We're in luck, because the Cowgirls don't have any marbles."

Dallas lost Tony Romo to a hand injury early in their 20-7 loss to the Eagles last week. Romo banged his throwing hand off the helmet of Philadelphia's Jason Babin, and the hand quickly swelled. Romo is expected to play on Sunday night.

"I'm getting a lot of treatment," Romo said, "although Jerry Jones' constant 'hand-wringing' is making no improvement whatsoever. I'm not sure who has a greater influence over this team — Jones or Jason Garrett. I think those two need to switch positions for a day, so they both can see how useless the other is."

One team will win; the other will choke. And since Dallas is coached by "Garrett," which sounds an awful lot like "garrotte," I'm guessing the Cowboys will choke.

New York wins, 30-22.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:46 PM | Comments (0)

Slant Pattern Year-End Odds and Ends

* One thing I will be grateful for when 2011 comes to an end: no more end of year lists. "There sure were a lot of interesting storylines this year! I wish someone would summarize and rank them for me!" said nobody. Except, I suppose, those emerging from comas.

If I'm ever tasked with writing a "biggest sports stories of the year" story, I'm going to play it straight on numbers 10-2, and for No. 1 I'm going to select a par putt made by the world's 727th-ranked golfer on the fifth hole of the first round of the Africa Open.

* I usually stay away from "Hey, check out this funny vid!" stuff in my column, but I saw this live and I'm glad someone else picked up on it because I laughed out loud. If they ever resurrect the Batman cartoon, the producers need to give Kevin Harlan a call.

And while I have come to praise something in the Huffington Post, I also must bury it: I'm staying away from this whole Tim Tebow/Bill Maher brouhaha, but this contains a pretty glaring error which suggests that the writer didn't even comprehend the site he linked to: "Will Maher reprise his controversial tweet during next week's Broncos game? Either way he plays it, and whether the Broncos win or lose, they'll still win the AFC West title and earn the number 4 seed."

Uh, no. The Broncos will not win the AFC West "win or lose." They'll win the division if they win their game. They may win the division if they lose, but only if Oakland helps them out by losing, too. If the Broncos lose and Oakland wins, the Broncos are not going to the playoffs and will not be division champions. Stop putting entertainment writers whose interest in sports is limited to Kardashian husbands on the sports beat.

And while I'm piling on: "Will Maher reprise his controversial teweet during next week's Broncos game?" Can I go ahead and put all my money on "no?" I'm not very active on Twitter, but do people do that? "Hey, this tweet generated a lot of response! I'm gonna tweet the exact same thing again! I'm not even going to wait until the furor has died down from the first time I tweeted it! This time I will start it with, "I said..."

* In Brad Oremland's latest column, he noticed the same thing I did, that the announcers of the Green Bay/Chicago game pointed out repeatedly how Green Bay has actually been out-gained this year.

As he noted, we can chalk this up to the fact that turnovers, penalties, and special teams play a much bigger role in the game than we are apt to give credit for. Furthermore, I believe that discipline in regard to not committing penalties and taking care of the ball can be coached, and the coaches that don't emphasize it or ineffectively imbue these principles do so at their peril.

That said, it does potentially make for intriguing playoffs, because even sloppy undisciplined teams can get it together for one game. It's possible that Green Bay will play a team that commits few or no turnovers and penalties and stays with Green Bay on special teams, as well. If that happens, then Green Bay could be in trouble. As Brad said, the yards for/yards against statistic can be misleading, but it's not meaningless.

My own team, the Tampa Bay Bucs, are among the worst in the league in penalties and turnover ratio, and the players seem to give up in the face of adversity. It doesn't have to be this way. If I were a head coach, discipline of this stripe would be my number one priority. I would also endeavor to achieve two other goals that are sadly often overlooked.

1. I would be the king of clock management. I would never call a needless timeout, and I would never sit on a timeout when I needed to stop the clock. I just can't believe how often coaches screw this up. If it's say, late in the third quarter of a close game, I would not burn a timeout (except maybe on a crucial third down) because the other team's offense or defense was confusing me or we were having a problem getting the right personnel in (which should not happen if I'm doing my job as a coach anyway). I can't believe how many coaches are willing to burn a timeout or multiple timeouts to "save" a single play. The timeouts are usually more important.

2. If I was a college coach, I would recruit kickers heavily. How many colleges, major ones even, end up going for it on 4th-and-long from their opponents 25 yard line because they don't have a kicker they can count on to make a 42 yard field goal? Would never happen if I was in charge.

This is my last column of 2011. I hope everyone has a great new year, and I encourage you to eschew the bowl games and the NFL playoffs for the real sports action in January. I think there will be some clutch par putts made in the Africa Open again.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 6:24 PM | Comments (0)

December 27, 2011

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Wow, what a time for Early Doucet to trip.

* Things learned over the holidays: my mom doesn't like Tom Coughlin. Also, she thinks he is ugly.

* I don't mean to beat up on NFL Network, but Matt Leinart's last name is spelled with only one E.

* Nice job by NFL Network catching the sideline exchange between Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne after Dan Orlovsky threw to the other side of the field, and the Colts settled for a field goal.

* Peter King proclaimed on Sunday that the Rams have "got their quarterback of the future in Sam Bradford." Really? I haven't seen anything in the last two years to suggest that Bradford is a franchise quarterback.

***

During Sunday night's broadcast, announcers Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth repeatedly mentioned that the Packers have allowed more yards this season (6,010) than they have gained (5,932). It's an interesting statistic. How does a team go 14-1 with stats like that?

Well, here's a hint: the Packers finished the game with no turnovers and no penalties. Turnovers, special teams, red zone efficiency — many significant facets of the game are left out of the "total offense" and "total defense" statistics. This is why using yardage to evaluate teams is often misleading. The Packers intercepted their 29th pass of the season against Chicago on Sunday night. With two more in the regular season finale, they'll tie the 2002 Buccaneers and the '05 Bengals for most INTs by any team since realignment. They're +22 in turnover differential, an average of +1.5 per game.

They've committed the fewest penalties in the NFL. They have a good kicker, good punter, good return team. They almost always turn their scoring opportunities into touchdowns. The Packers have by far the best TD:FG ratio in the NFL, 2.8:1. When that doesn't work, they've made 88% of their field goals, 6th-best in the league, including a 58-yarder (4th-best). Randall Cobb has scored multiple return TDs. This team does most of the big things well, and all of the little things.

Now on to this week's power rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. Green Bay Packers [1] — Set a franchise record for wins in a single season (14), breaking a mark set by Vince Lombardi's 1962 Packers (and since tied in a 16-game schedule). The win was also Aaron Rodgers' seventh career game with four or more touchdown passes. Already, that's 5th-best among active QBs, trailing only the guys you'd expect: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Donovan McNabb. Rodgers also joined Manning (2004), McNabb (2004), Brady (2007), Brett Favre (1996), and Dan Marino (twice) as the only players with five or more 4-TD games in a season.

2. New Orleans Saints [2] — Converted 10/13 third downs as they demolished Atlanta to secure the NFC South title. New Orleans leads the NFL in third down percentage (56%) by a huge margin, well ahead of the 2nd-place Packers (48%) and double the last-place Rams (28%). In all the overblown glory about the single-season passing record, we're ignoring a much older, much more significant team record the Saints are poised to break: offensive yardage. The record is 7,075, by the 2000 Rams, or 450.8 per game by the 1951 Rams, if you go by per-game numbers. The Saints are on pace to break both, with 6,857 yards (457.1/gm) and a week left to play.

3. New England Patriots [3] — Tom Brady this week joined Steve Grogan and Babe Parilli among Patriot QBs who rushed for two TDs in a game more than once. This was the third time in Brady's 161-game regular-season career in which he scored more rushing TDs than passing. His first such game, actually, was the first playoff game of his career, the famous "Tuck Rule" game against Oakland in the 2001 playoffs. The Patriots finished Saturday's game missing their two best offensive linemen, Matt Light and Logan Mankins, both of whom were out with injuries.

4. San Francisco 49ers [5] — David Akers leads the NFL in scoring, and he just broke the single-season record for field goals (42). He's obviously a lock for All-Pro honors. But has he really had a better season than, say, Sebastian Janikowski? Akers has made 30 field goals from inside 40 yards, 19 more than Janikowski. But those are pretty close to automatic — Janikowski hasn't missed from that distance all season. From beyond 40 yards, the kicks that really require some skill, Janikowski has made 15, including a record-tying 63-yarder, and Akers only 12. We usually evaluate kickers by statistics that reward opportunity, not talent. Akers obviously is a talented kicker, and he's had a nice year, but it's not apparent to me that he's been the best at his position, and it's a shame most analysts are too lazy to look at more than one stat to see that.

5. Baltimore Ravens [4] — Can clinch a bye for the first time since 2006 with a win at Cincinnati in Week 17. The Browns didn't have the offense to seriously threaten Baltimore in Week 16, but Joe Flacco's performance was less than overwhelming. Ray Rice led the team in receiving, with 3 catches for 48 yards. Running backs actually accounted for more than half of Flacco's 11 completions against Cleveland. I wrote in Week 1 about Matt Ryan and Flacco, and at the time I saw them as basically equal. But Ryan continues to improve, while Flacco seems to have regressed this season, with a career-low 79.7 passer rating, 14 points lower than last season and even a little worse than his rookie year (80.3).

6. Pittsburgh Steelers [6] — Second shutout win of the season, making this the first Steeler team since 2007 with multiple shutouts. Since the 2002 expansion, the only team with more than two shutouts in a season was the Super Bowl champion 2003 Patriots (3). Charlie Batch is 5-2 (.714) as a starting quarterback for the Steelers.

7. Atlanta Falcons [7] — Totally outclassed against the Saints. The Falcons have won most of the games they were supposed to, but they've repeatedly fallen short against elite opposition, and it's hard to see them going far in the playoffs. I complain about this every time it happens, because I don't understand at all: there was a 15-yard penalty called in the Monday night game, and ESPN never showed what happened. With 1:19 left in the third quarter, the Saints' Tom Johnson apparently roughed Matt Ryan — I assume it was Ryan — but television viewers never got to see what drew the call. Fifteen-yard penalties are important. Please, at least show a replay.

8. Seattle Seahawks [9] — Beast. Marshawn Lynch this week became the first player all season to rush for 100 yards against the 49ers, and the first to score a rushing touchdown against them. Maybe Lynch should never leave the game. With Seattle down 19-17 and under a minute left, Tarvaris Jackson completed a pass to RB Justin Forsett. Rather than heading for the sideline, Forsett danced around trying to find a hole upfield. He gained an extra 2 yards, but lost :15 and his shoe. The Seahawks probably weren't going to win anyway, but Forsett almost single-handedly killed the comeback attempt.

9. Detroit Lions [15] — In 2008, the Lions went 0-16 and were outscored by 249 points. Three years later, they're 10-5, +91, and headed to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. If the Lions win at Green Bay in Week 17, they'll be 11-5, the team's best record since 1991. If they win by more than 9 points, they'll outscore opponents by over 100 for the first time since 1970.

10. Arizona Cardinals [10] — First loss in a month, and only the second since October, as Arizona dropped to 2-6 on the road. This follows a 1-7 road record in 2010. Altogether, the Cardinals are 14-26 (.350) away under Ken Whisenhunt, compared to 25-14 (.641) in the desert. Biggest home/road disparities, 2007-present:

1. Baltimore Ravens, +.339
2. San Francisco 49ers, +.292
3. Arizona Cardinals, +.291
4. Seattle Seahawks, +.268
5. Atlanta Falcons, +.256

By percentage, the Seahawks take over the top spot, winning almost twice as many games at home (.550) as away (.282), a 1.95:1 ratio. The rest of the top five: 49ers (1.88), Cardinals (1.83), Ravens (1.78), Lions (1.73). The Giants, Eagles, Dolphins, Raiders, and Washington actually have better records in road games than they do at home.

11. Philadelphia Eagles [18] — Third straight win, following a 4-8 start. A blocked punt at the end of the game set up a Dallas touchdown to spoil what would have been Philadelphia's first shutout win since 1996. It's surprising that none of Jim Johnson's great Eagle defenses (1998-2009) ever finished a shutout. LeSean McCoy reportedly has "a slight ankle sprain," and his status for Week 17 is unclear. It sounds like he'll play, but how long and how effectively are definite question marks.

12. San Diego Chargers [12] — Front-runners. They can't win when they fall behind early, don't seem mentally tough. They retain the 12th-place spot because of a quirk of the rankings. This week, all the teams I had ranked 7-14 lost, and all the teams 15-20 won. The result is 14 teams that all look something close to equal right now, and San Diego's last month is still among the most impressive of any team in the league, with three blowout wins by a combined 71 points before their embarrassing loss to Detroit on Saturday.

13. New York Giants [19] — How about some love for punter Steve Weatherford, who pinned the Jets inside their own 10-yard line when they were poised to begin a potential game-winning drive? Weatherford's punt set up the game-clinching safety. This will be the first season since the AFL-NFL merger in which the NFC East champion does not win at least 10 games. Over the previous 40 seasons, the NFC East produced 69 teams with double-digit wins (72 if you count the Cardinals), including 18 Super Bowl teams and 11 champions.

14. Dallas Cowboys [13] — Tony Romo's hand injury has understandably drawn the most attention, but the Cowboys also lost left guard Montrae Holland, who suffered a biceps injury and has been placed on injured reserve. Dallas has won three of its last five road games with the Giants, but this team would surprise a lot of people by rising up to win a critical game in Week 17.

15. Cincinnati Bengals [16] — Nearly blew a 23-0 fourth quarter lead. The Bengals are poised for a playoff berth, but they've only beaten one team with a winning record, the 8-7 Tennessee Titans. This isn't a team I'd bet on going into Houston, not even T.J. Yates' Houston.

16. Carolina Panthers [20] — Mike Tirico said during the Monday night broadcast that New Orleans "is the only team in the NFL that has three 400+ yard rushers." This is, of course, not true. The Panthers actually have three 600+ yard rushers: DeAngelo Williams (783), Jonathan Stewart (682), and Cam Newton (674). The Chiefs also have three players over 400 (Jackie Battle, Thomas Jones, Dexter McCluster), and several other teams (Broncos, Colts) are close. The Lions, meanwhile, have nobody over 400. I'd bet there's never been a playoff team without a 400-yard rusher before this, not in a 16-game season.

17. Houston Texans [8] — Victimized by several highly questionable penalty calls, but the bottom line is that they lost a game they should have won. If you look at Houston's approach — rushing on third downs, settling for field goals — it's pretty apparent that they didn't believe the Colts could beat them, and thought they could just play it safe and fly home with a victory. The Texans dropped to 0-10 all-time at Indianapolis.

NFL Network analyst Deion Sanders repeatedly stated that Houston didn't need a first-round bye in the playoffs, that the game reps for rookie QB T.J. Yates were more important. Be that as it may, Houston still needed the second seed. If you're the third seed, that means you go on the road in round two, and there's a big difference between playing the Ravens in Baltimore or Houston. Like Sanders, I'm not sold on the value of bye weeks, but unlike Deion, I'm very much a believer in the Ravens' home-field advantage.

18. Tennessee Titans [17] — Rob Bironas kicked two 51-yard field goals in their 6-point victory over Jacksonville, his fifth and sixth 50-yarders of the season. Year-in, year-out, Bironas is among the best in the league at his position. Tennessee's defense has the lowest sack percentage (4.3%) in the NFL. Former Titan Jason Babin has 18 sacks, and his new team, the Eagles, has the highest sack percentage (9.4%) of any team.

19. New York Jets [14] — Mark Sanchez attempted a career-high 59 passes — not including 5 sacks — in their loss to the Giants. The Jets didn't trail by more than three points until the end of the third quarter (:13), so this wasn't about a wild comeback attempt, it was just bad play-calling. The game got out of hand because the Jets were throwing on every down, not in spite of it. Sanchez averaged 4.4 yards per attempt, committed 4 turnovers in the fourth quarter, and finished with a 54.2 passer rating. The Jets have the fewest pass plays of 40+ yards in the NFL this season (2). The 31st-place Jaguars have twice that many. The cross-town Giants have eight times as many.

As bad as the Jets have looked the last two weeks, they have this thing about bouncing back and winning when they have to, so I'd look for a victory in Week 17, even if turns out to be too late for the playoffs. In order for the Jets to get in, they need to win, the Bengals need to lose, the Titans need to lose, and either the Broncos or Raiders need to lose. Long odds.

20. Denver Broncos [11] — Two ugly losses in a row, and nail-biter victories over the Vikings and the Caleb Hanie Bears aren't terribly impressive. The Broncos have given up 40 points in each of the last two weeks. Amazingly, the Bills got to 40 with only one offensive touchdown, the others coming via punt return and a pair of interception returns. In the NFL, anything new tends to be successful at first. This is particularly true for new quarterbacks. After a couple games, the film's out there, and opponents find the weak points. That may have taken a little longer with Bobby Douglass Tim Tebow, because his style and skill set are so distinctive, but it will be interesting to see how the offense adapts.

21. Miami Dolphins [21] — In the first half, they outgained New England 255-107, with more than twice as many first downs and almost twice as much time of possession. In the second half, all of that was basically reversed. Brandon Marshall has scored in three straight games, and four of the last five.

22. Washington Redskins [22] — On Sunday, Rex Grossman broke the Minnesota defense's 9-game streak of games without an interception, the longest since 1950. There are 32 active players with at least 1,500 regular-season pass attempts. Among those 32, the average interception percentage is 2.8%. The best, by far, is Aaron Rodgers (1.8%), followed by Tom Brady and Donovan McNabb (2.2%). The worst is Grossman (3.9%), with Jon Kitna (3.7%) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (3.6%) the next-worst. Grossman, Kyle Boller, and David Carr are the only ones with more INTs than passing TDs.

23. Kansas City Chiefs [23] — Week 17 matchup pits Kyle Orton against his old team, now led by Marlin Briscoe Tim Tebow. It's a chance for Orton, who as Bronco QB threw 49 TD passes and just 28 interceptions, to not necessarily prove his critics wrong, but at least give them a metaphorical middle finger. I'm sure it would feel sweet for Orton to knock Denver out of the playoffs.

24. Oakland Raiders [25] — Blocked two field goals, including the potential game winner, before winning in overtime, their first victory of December. Maybe it's unrealistic to expect great things from Carson Palmer after he was so quickly thrust into the starter's role, but his performance this season has been uneven (11 TD, 15 INT, 77.2 rating). The Raiders have a shot at both the AFC West title and a wild card, but they have to beat San Diego in Week 17, and they need some help.

25. Cleveland Browns [24] — Everyone except rookie Phillip Taylor knew the Ravens weren't going to run a play on 4th-and-2 at the end of the game. Taylor's offside penalty allowed Baltimore to run out the clock. Bright spot: special teams. Josh Cribbs returned a kick for a touchdown (for the first time since 2009), while Brad Maynard's 6 punts yielded no returns — 3 fair catches, 2 immediate hits, 1 downed by the coverage team — and twice pinned Baltimore inside the 10-yard line.

26. Buffalo Bills [28] — First win since October, and the second straight impressive showing from C.J. Spiller. There's not a huge difference between Fred Jackson's stats before his injury, and Spiller's in the five games since. Per-game stats:

27. Indianapolis Colts [32] — Two wins in a row! This is pure speculation, but I don't think the Colts are playing hard just out of professional pride. If they finish with the worst record in the NFL, they're probably rebuilding next year with a rookie quarterback. If not next year, probably the one after. If they can win their way out of the Andrew Luck sweepstakes, you have to think it increases the likelihood that Peyton Manning finishes his career with Indianapolis, and that probably brings the Colts back to immediate playoff contention. If I'm a player on that team, I want Manning.

28. Chicago Bears [26] — Looked a little better with Josh McCown at quarterback, and this ranking is probably too low, but they've lost five in a row. Aaron Rodgers (142.7 passer rating, 5 TDs) looked totally at ease against them, finding open receivers at will.

29. Minnesota Vikings [30] — The injury to Adrian Peterson limits their rise in the rankings. Peterson tore his ACL and MCL, and team officials are just hoping he'll be able to play again by the beginning of next season. Christian Ponder also left the game, but that's of less concern. Joe Webb played well in Ponder's absence, and not to trivialize concussions, but that's a problem players usually come back from pretty quickly. There's a definite similarity in Webb's style of play and that of Joe Geri Tim Tebow.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars [27] — Lost for the fifth time in their last six games. Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 103 yards in the loss, setting a new career-high for rushing yardage (1,437). Ages ago, pro-football-reference.com founder Doug Drinen proposed the Corey Dillon Award, honoring Dillon's "years of meritorious service to a horrible team". MJD's efforts this season on the worst offense in the NFL definitely deserve some kind of award.

31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [29] — "You don't go from being a Coach of the Year candidate to being the worst coach in the league to get fired within a year," said head coach Raheem Morris on Monday. Tell that to Todd Haley, who finished third in COY voting and was fired 13 games later. Steve Spagnuolo, also visible in last year's voting, is expected to lose his job next week. In 2002, Raiders coach Bill Callahan led Oakland to the best record in the AFC, and eventually to Super Bowl XVII, in his first season at the helm. Andy Reid won Coach of the Year, but Callahan got support, as well. The next season, the Raiders dropped to 4-12, and Callahan was fired. You're not alone, Coach Morris.

32. St. Louis Rams [31] — Shut out for the second time in the last month, held to single-digits for the sixth time. St. Louis has scored 166 points this season. The lowest by any team since expansion is the 2006 Oakland Raiders (168), so with another shutout in Week 17, the Rams would break the record. They play the 49ers, who have already shut them out once this season, and twice in the last five meetings.

***

Jon Gruden has asserted repeatedly that Darren Sproles was the best free agent pickup of the year. Sproles has 563 rushing yards (7.0 avg), 681 receiving yards (81 rec), 1,284 return yards (27.2 KR avg, 9.6 PR avg), and a total of 9 TDs. He's had a great year. I've always liked Darren Sproles. But I don't agree that he's been the most valuable free agent of 2011. A few other candidates:

Johnathan Joseph, CB, HOU: 4 INT, huge part of defensive turnaround
Cullen Jenkins, DT, PHI: 5.5 sacks, disrupts a ton of plays
Jason Babin, DE, PHI: 18 sacks
Carlos Rogers, CB, SF: 6 INT, 106 yards, TD
Barry Cofield, DT, WAS: 2.5 sacks, 8 pass deflections
David Akers, K, SF: NFL-record 42 FG, league-high 156 points
Reggie Bush, RB, MIA: 1,086 rushing yards, 5.0 average
Vonta Leach, FB, BAL: Front-runner for All-Pro fullback

Sproles has been terrific, but he's a part-time player, and the Saints have so many other ways to hurt you. Would you rather have Sproles than a stud cornerback, a Pro Bowl-caliber defensive tackle, the leading scorer in the NFL, a 1,000-yard rusher who does a lot of the same things as Sproles, one of the best blocking backs in the league, and a guy who could finish with 20 or more sacks? Sproles is better than all of them? I don't see that.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 6:43 PM | Comments (1)

The State of the 2011-2012 Bowl Season

As we get into the meat of the bowl season (and everyone's most confident picks have already played), let's take a look at what we've learned so far and what we can expect from here on out.

Let's begin with what we've learned so far.

1) The Big East missed out on Temple.

Temple's move out of the Big East and into the Mid-American Conference turned out to be the best move for the Owls. Al Golden laid the foundation for success and Steve Addazio has carried the torch as Temple went 9-4 and had one of the most impressive performances so far this bowl season in routing Wyoming in the New Mexico Bowl. Bernard Pierce was, well, Bernard Pierce and the Owls shut Wyoming for most of the entire game. Temple is a school on the rise in great geographical proximity to many Big East schools, so why the conference didn't look at them stronger (much less, take San Diego State) is beyond me.

2) Boise State doesn't sleep through bowl games.

Okay, I admit it. Boise State was my second most confident pick, behind TCU. Despite the Horned Frogs winning a closer-than-anticipated Poinsettia Bowl, the Broncos proved why they should have been the most confident choice this season. Despite the fact that Boise ended up back in Las Vegas again this year when they were thinking Sugar all the way, the Broncos refused to go through the motions and dominated Arizona State from start to finish. That speaks highly of Chris Petersen's squad, players and staff alike.

Boise will face a little stronger opposition in the Big East, and while they still need to toughen up the non-conference slate (yes, Bronco fans, I know many teams just won't play you regardless), the road to the BCS will be much easier for Boise State from here on out.

3) These small-time bowls are proving to be entertaining.

Besides Temple and Boise State, these have been some pretty nice matchups so far. From the clutch fourth-down play from Ohio (Potato Bowl), to the winning long-distance field goal from Louisiana-Lafayette (New Orleans Bowl), these early bowls have provided some great drama. So far, we've had the Boise State and Temple routs, and then five bowl games decided by a combined 27 points. That's pretty good stuff right there.

4) Penn Wagers and his SEC officiating crew are horrific.

Oh wait, we knew that already. Has anyone ever seen a call reviewed twice in a game before? Pathetic. Thankfully, they at least got the call right the second time.

So which bowls are the big winners and losers this year?

Jerry Jones and the Cotton Bowl are the big winners this season.

You could give a nod to the Fiesta Bowl, who struggled with scandal in the offseason only to land a stellar matchup this season in Stanford/Oklahoma State, but the Cotton Bowl, who is working hard to become the next BCS bowl game, won big in landing the only non-BCS matchup between two top-10 teams.

While the Sugar Bowl picked two teams outside of the top 10 for the first time since 1945 (I'll get to that one later), and other bowls struggle to sell tickets, the Cotton Bowl was lucky enough to land Arkansas and Kansas State, which not only has the makings of an exciting game, but also has two fan bases that wasted no time ensuring Jerry World would be packed to the rafters.

Forget all the alignments and "Conference No. 2 vs. Conference No. 3" rhetoric that's put up before bowl selections. Bowl picks are about geography and selling out their stadium. This year, the Cotton struck gold.

The Sugar Bowl and Paul Hoolihan are the big losers.

New Orleans should be lucky that they've got the national title game this year. Paul Hoolihan's logic in picking Virginia Tech hasn't worked out so well for him and the Sugar Bowl is left with a matchup that is the weakest of the BCS bowl games. Sure, you can argue that Clemson/West Virginia is a matchup of lower-ranked teams, but at least West Virginia won their league and Clemson beat the Hokies twice this season. Hoolihan, famously known for persuading the NCAA to let Ohio State's "Tattoo Five" play in his bowl game last year, played his cards wrong again. While Denard Robinson will be worth the price of admission, this game lacks appeal and will end up as one of the biggest clunkers of the bowl season.

So what can we expect in the days to come?

1) There are going to be lots of shootouts.

Clemson and West Virginia doesn't sound like the sexiest Orange Bowl matchup, but there's no doubt that this will be a game of high-octane offense in which several records could be shattered. I'm thinking an Oregon/Wisconsin Rose Bowl could be an offensive showcase, as well. LaMichael James, Montee Ball, Russell Wilson ... this has all the makings of a fun day in Pasadena. Then you've got one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Stanford's Andrew Luck going against the well-oiled offensive machine known as Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl. I'm thinking the first team to 50 wins.

There's the Alamo Bowl, which features RG3 and Baylor taking on a fairly underrated Washington team, who packs a pretty nice offensive punch themselves. And then there's the already mentioned potential classic between the high-powered air attack of Arkansas and the high-powered ground attack of Kansas State. These bowls are all must-see affairs.

2) There are a lot of toss-up games.

There's a lot of games that are up in the air in terms of picking a winner. Texas and California both lack the consistency to guarantee one won't show up and lay a complete egg in the Holiday Bowl. Texas A&M is loaded with some talented players, but the Aggies have choked so many times this season that one wonders if they will compete for 60 minutes against a pretty good Northwestern squad. Penn State and Houston is as big a toss-up as I've ever seen. The Nittany Lions have a solid defense. Houston has a great offense. But given all that's happened at Penn State, coupled with Houston's collapse against Southern Miss, it's very hard to pick a winner there.

3) The BBVA Compass Bowl will have really low attendance figures and really low TV ratings.

Legion Field needs to either be renovated or torn down and replaced with something more deserving for a football-crazy town like Birmingham. Either way, this bowl game just lacks any pizazz whatsoever. A Pitt team who lost their coach to Arizona State faces a SMU team that's not at full strength and who almost lost their coach to Arizona State. I'm yawning as I type this.

4) Auburn and Florida should lose, but...

You look at the Chick-Fil-A and Gator Bowls, and you think Virginia and Ohio State should cruise, respectively, in these games. After all, Auburn has a pitiful defense and lost their top offensive threat, Michael Dyer, to suspension. As for Florida, shock paddles haven't been able to put a pulse in their offense at times. But Virginia has been inconsistent at times and Gene Chizik has had bowl magic working for him lately. And Ohio State's record against the SEC has never been that pretty. So I'd pencil in the Cavs and the Buckeyes, but I wouldn't be shocked if there were upsets here.

5) LSU and Alabama will score more points in the first half of their rematch than in their previous showdown.

It won't be an offensive explosion by any means. But given over a month to prepare, there should be a few more offensive fireworks than the defensive slugfest in Tuscaloosa earlier this year. By the way, I'm going 17-16 in favor of LSU. I like Nick Saban's team, but there's something about LSU playing title games in the Superdome.

Hopefully the rest of the bowl season is as exciting as some of these early bowl games have been. It should be a lot of fun as the college football season concludes.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 2:53 PM | Comments (0)

December 26, 2011

Tennis New Year's Resolutions

For the first time in almost two decades, I was unable to publish my annual tennis Christmas wish list. With the changes in the sports journalism industry, the rise of blogs, and the need to make some cash to pay for all those great gifts I got you, it was just too busy for me to even think about my wish list.

So, instead, I'll start a new tradition, my tennis New Year's resolutions that hopefully will take off for another two decades. 2012 will certainly be an interesting year, as there are dire predictions that the world will end this year, or that something cataclysmic will happen, if you believe the Mayan calendar and in Nostradamus' predictions. In tennis, it just might be an era changer.

Roger Federer, although still only 30-years-old, has begun to fade. No longer considered the favorite to win any tournament, he is still dangerous. He demonstrated that with his win at the ATP Championships in November. He still holds the most well-rounded, all-court game, and still can compete with the top players. You can see, though, that with his kids starting to grow up and his outside business interests, he is getting ready to say goodbye to the sport he has called his for the past decade. Should Roger declare this is his last year, certainly the Mayan Calendar may be correct.

So, with that, I'll give you my tennis resolutions. I'll start with five:

5. I resolve to spend more time researching and learning about the players on the men's and women's professional tours. That might seem odd, given that I do this for a living, but it is not. There are so many new and rising stars, and so many tournaments that it is increasingly hard to keep up with all the players and their games. I resolve to set aside an hour every week to just studying the rankings and every player in the top 100 on both sides.

4. I resolve to spend at least two hours every week on my personal tennis game. As a former coach and player, I have been spending so much time on the road that I have neglected my game. Once known for my serve and volley style, I have lost some zip on my serve and can't quite get my kicker to do what it used to. I need to stay in shape and be healthy besides. I resolve to play every chance I get and get back to my fighting style and weight.

3. I resolve to get a new Donnay Pro One 16x19 racquet. The once legendary brand, known for its time in the hands of Bjorn Borg and a young Andre Agassi, has returned to its roots of solid, control oriented player frames. The frames have modern features with that old school touch, feel and control. If I'm going to work on my game, I'd better have the right tools.

2. I resolve to travel to more smaller tournaments and spend more time with the grass roots of tennis. This should actually be the resolution for everyone. There are great players right around the corner from you, and with the current economy being what it is, this is one of the best, no money fun things to do. Contact your local tennis association for local sponsored tournaments in your area, or go out and watch your local high school or college matches. Not only will you enjoy the matches, you might pick up a tip or two for your own game, and, well, you will certainly give a boost to the home team every time you cheer a great shot.

1. I resolve to write better, more informative columns, and to write columns that you all want to read. Everyone can improve on what they do, and I'm no exception. This year, I plan to make it my best.

So those are my tennis resolutions. I challenge you all to make some resolutions of your own, and post them as comments here. Then, around Wimbledon, we can take stock of where we are together.

Hope everyone had a happy holiday, and to all of you, happy New Year!

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 1:20 PM | Comments (2)

December 23, 2011

Missouri AD Alden Enjoying the Divine

God loves Mike Alden.

I know, I know. Don't mix religion and politics. God doesn't give a damn about college athletics. Tebow Tebow Tebow and all that.

But seriously, God loves him some Mike Alden.

There's no other way to possibly explain the turn of fortunes for the University of Missouri Athletic Director other than to chalk it up to divine intervention.

If you aren't plugged in to the goings on at Missouri over the past year, Alden make a full-court press to land Purdue men's basketball coach Matt Painter to replace Mike Anderson when Anderson bolted for Arkansas. It was a classic "use another school to get his current employer to pony up the cash" move by Painter, and Alden played the role of patsy to a tee. He (and the St. Louis media) got played, pure and simple.

Then, to compound the issue, Alden seemed to make a pure panic hire in Frank Haith from Miami. Coming off a mediocre tenure at Miami that saw his Hurricanes win a whopping 38% of their ACC games, with their best player arguably a tight end in the NFL right now (Jimmy Graham for the Saints), Haith was on nobody's radar as somebody who deserved a big raise at another program.

The fact Haith was hired just days after the Painter pursuit crashed and burned made it seem that much worse. No Shaka Smart from VCU. No Brad Stevens from Butler. Hell, Cuonzo Martin, who left Missouri State for Tennessee, would have created more buzz than Frank freaking Haith.

But there they were, Haith and Alden, trying to sell a despondent alumni and fan base on "great character" and "leadership of young men," as if sports fans actually care about either of those things (at least not in the absence of NCAA tournament victories).

Then Haith got caught up in the Miami football scandal surrounding booster Nevin Shapiro, where phrases like "paid for a stripper's abortion" were bandied about. Haith's program was alleged to have benefited from a $10,000 payment to associates of recruit DeQuan Jones, which is just a little bit against the rules.

(Miami was sitting out Jones as the NCAA investigates, but was just forced by Jones and his attorney to let him begin play effectively immediately. According to Yahoo!'s Charles Robinson, who originally broke the Miami scandal, the allegations involving Jones are still very much part of the larger investigation.)

To say Missouri fans were concerned is an understatement. Would Haith get fired? If so, should Alden go with him? After a brief resurgence of relevance under Anderson, it looked like the long, dark winter of discontent was poised to set on the Tigers men's basketball program once again.

Over the next few months, Missouri found itself in the headlines for yet another not-because-we're-winning reason: the rumored, then confirmed, then unconfirmed, the re-confirmed, and now final decision to bolt the Texas Longhorn Network for the Southeastern Conference.

Congrats Missouri, the joke went, you're now Vanderbilt without the academics. Enjoy that TV money, because there aren't going to be many wins to go along with it.

But then a funny thing happened: the Tigers actually started winning.

Since the move to the SEC became official in early November, the football team is 3-0, including its first win over Texas in the Gary Pinkel era, and heads into the Independence Bowl against North Carolina on Monday.

Far more impressive has been the 11-0 start to the basketball team in Haith's first season. Coaching a team comprised of Anderson's recruits, Haith is getting far more out of them than Anderson ever did.

While senior Marcus Denmon leads the team in scoring at 19 points per game, perhaps nobody has epitomized the Tigers' growth this season more than fellow senior Kim English. Not only has English raised his production from 10 points per game to 16, his field-goal percentage has jumped gone from an anemic 37% to now 54%. He's gone from "this kid is killing us" to a legitimate — and, most importantly, consistent — second scoring option behind Denmon.

(It helps that sophomore Phil Pressey has developed into an all-conference point guard and sets everybody else up, but it still takes other guys to convert the opportunities Pressey creates. English's three-point accuracy this season has gone from 37% to 53%, and he's doing it with an increased volume of 5.6 attempts per game, up from 4.2 per game last year.)

Of course Haith is going to have to do more than just coach up Anderson's leftovers to be considered a long-term successful hire for Alden. He's going to need to bring in his own guys and maintain the winning ways in the SEC to earn Alden true validation for the hire.

Luckily for Alden, Haith's reputation for being a quality pitch-man is already paying dividends. While it usually takes coaches a few years to develop the relationships that bring in high-profile recruits, Haith has taken a short cut by landing Jabari Brown, who decided to leave Oregon just a few games into his freshman season.

Brown was a four-star get for Dana Altman at Oregon, and should provide an immediate boost for the Tigers when he becomes eligible next December. He will join two other transfers in Earnest Ross from Auburn and Keion Bell from Pepperdine. And the Tigers have been mentioned as a possible destination for Khem Birch, a top-12 recruit from the class of 2011 who, like Brown, decided to bolt his school (in this case Pittsburgh) just a few games into his career.

(Birch has yet to make a decision, so it's all speculation, but the fact Missouri is even being included in the speculation is a big step for the program.)

Haith still has some work to do in recruiting his own state. Forward Cameron Biedscheid out of St. Louis (No. 62 on ESPN's ranking for the class of 2012) has signed with Notre Dame, but Mizzou is still in the game for class of 2013 four-star forward Ishmail Wainright out of the Kansas City area.

The top talent from Missouri have never viewed Mizzou as a top destination. Bradley Beal, B.J. Young, Otto Porter, and Ben McLemore were all top 50 recruits from Missouri that elected to leave the state, and Haith will have to change that pattern to make some real headway. But the Tigers have a little bit of buzz right now, and that's the name of the game when it comes to recruiting 16- and 17-year-old kids. Now Haith has to capitalize with an NCAA Tournament run to seal the deal.

To recap, Alden has gone from under extreme duress, a panic hire, and a messy divorce from the Big 12, to enjoying the holidays with an established football program, an undefeated basketball team, and a windfall of SEC cash with which to continue to build his program.

It's either God's love, or a deal with the devil. Either way, I'm not sure Mizzou fans care all that much. Just keep winning them games, and everything will be all right.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:12 AM | Comments (0)

December 22, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 16

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Houston @ Indianapolis (+6½)

On the same day that the undefeated Packers fell, the winless Colts knocked off the Titans 27-13 for their first win. Now 1-13, Indy could make it two in a row with a win over the favored Texans.

"Indeed," Jim Caldwell said. "We can win without Peyton Manning. But not as easily as we can lose without him. Peyton is throwing, and he's already started preparing for next year, which is early for him, because he usually doesn't start next year's preparation until after the first or second week of the playoffs."

The Texans lost to the Panthers 28-13, and as a result, lost their hold on the AFC's No. 1 seed. At 10-4, Houston now holds the third seed, behind the 11-3 Patriots and 11-3 Ravens.

"The Colts finally have a win," Gary Kubiak said. "But do they want more and risk losing a shot at Andrew Luck? I think not. That's why Jim Caldwell's rallying cry of 'just win, baby' was appropriate."

Arian Foster rushes for 98 yards and a score, and adds a receiving touchdown.

Houston wins, 24-13.

Miami @ New England (-10½)

The Patriots clinched the AFC East with a 41-23 win at Denver, as Tom Brady out-dueled Tim Tebow. Brady passed for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns, and ran for another score.

"Tebow's been placed on a pedestal," Brady said. "But only because he plays in a city a mile higher than every one else. But he showed me something last Sunday, and I showed him something. He prays before and after games; I prey during games. I don't advocate Tebowing in Denver, and I don't advocate teetotaling in New England. So drink up, Patriots fans. We're set to be the AFC's No. 1 seed. Let's just hope the alcohol, like our porous defense, is '40' proof."

In their first since the firing of Tony Sparano, the Dolphins beat the Bills 30-23 under the guidance of interim head coach Todd Bowles. Miami is 5-9 in the East, tied with the Bills in last.

"I think I relate well to the players," Bowles said, "especially specialist Brandon Fields. We're both placeholders."

Reggie Bush ran wild last week against the Bills, rushing for 203 yards. In Foxboro, the New England defense employs the 'Kim Kardashian' defense, because he's not getting any more.

New England wins, 31-24.

NY Giants @ NY Jets (-3)

With their playoff lives on the lines, both the Giants and Jets laid eggs last Sunday. The Giants lost 23-10 to the Redskins, while the Eagles blasted the Jets 45-19.

"We had the NFC East in our grasp," Tom Coughlin said. "I can't begin to express my disappointment. Therein lies the problem. I can't 'begin,' and my team can't 'finish.' But kudos to Hakeem Nicks for trying his best to fire us up. Obviously, he's not David Tyree, but I appreciated his attempt to catch a ball with his face-mask."

At 8-6, the Jets currently hold the AFC's final playoff spot, with a tiebreaker edge over the Bengals due to a better record against common opponents.

"This game will remind many of the old Meadowlands," Rex Ryan said. "There will be at least one implosion, and even more collapses. A foot fetish isn't my only kinky vice. I'm also into erotic asphyxiation, not to be confused with autoerotic asphyxiation. I'm not turned on by choking myself, but I get a kick out of seeing others choking. The Giants really do it for me."

Jets win, 31-27.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-1)

In the year's most shocking upset, the Chiefs stunned the previously undefeated Packers 19-14, ending Green Bay's run at a perfect season. Romeo Crenel, who took over when Todd Haley was fired last week, designed a game plan that stymied Aaron Rodgers and the world champs.

"I hate to use Haley's firing as a platform for my own head coaching job," Crenel said. "Almost as much as I hate calling myself the 'Round Mound of Rebound.' I like to think beating the Packers was my Jim Caldwell moment—one win should be enough to keep the job."

The Raiders blew a 27-14 fourth-quarter lead to the Lions last week in a 28-27 loss that kept Oakland one game behind the Broncos in the AFC West. Oakland has lost three in a row to fall to 7-7 in the division.

"This was the 'Heidi' game, circa 2011," Hue Jackson said. "No, the game wasn't preempted for a showing of the goofy children's classic. However, our defense in the final quarter looked like Swiss cheese."

Oakland wins, 23-20.

Minnesota @ Washington (-6)

The Redskins knocked the Giants out of the NFC East lead with a 23-10 win at MetLife Stadium last week, giving the Cowboys the division lead. Washington is 5-9, with two of those wins coming against the Giants.

"I guess my prediction of an NFC East title won't be coming to fruition," Rex Grossman said. "In fact, we've clinched last place. So the Redskins division finish is like where I should be on a depth chart — behind three others."

The Vikings are 2-12 after a 42-20 loss to Drew Brees and the Saints last week in Mall of America Stadium. Minnesota gave up 573 yards of total offense and forced only one New Orleans punt.

"Adrian Peterson accused the Saints of trying to injure him," Leslie Frazier said. "He said Jabari Greer twisted his already injured ankle. When confronted with the accusation, Greer, naturally, said, 'You're pulling my leg.' A hilarious back-and-forth reminiscent of an Abbott and Costello skit ensued."

The Redskins played spoiler last week; this week, there's nothing to spoil, because the Vikings are already rotten.

Washington wins, 27-17.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-13½)

The Ravens surrendered 415 total yards, including 145 on the ground, in a 34-14 loss in San Diego last week. Luckily for Baltimore, the Steelers lost on Monday night, and the Ravens still hold the AFC's No. 2 seed.

"I'll have to thank my brother Jim for that," John Harbaugh said. "The Harbaugh's are 3-0 against the Steelers this year. That's probably why Mike Tomlin calls us the 'bro foes.'"

The Browns, without Colt McCoy, lost 20-17 in overtime in Arizona. McCoy is expected to miss Sunday's game as he recovers from a concussion suffered from a James Harrison hit in week 14.

"'McCoy is a surname of Irish descent," Colt McCoy said. "Fittingly, my father got his Irish up at the Browns' handling of my injury. As such, the Ravens have agreed to a pre-game rendition of 'Daddy's Boy,' sung to the tune of the Irish ballad 'Danny Boy.'"

The Ravens defense was exposed against the Chargers last week. Suddenly, there's concern about the vaunted Ravens defense, and, just as suddenly, Joe Flacco's not the biggest worry in Baltimore. But against the Browns, the Ravens take care of business.

Baltimore wins, 26-10.

Arizona @ Cincinnati (-4½)

The Bengals are 8-6 after last week's 20-13 win in St. Louis, a win that, coupled with losses by the Jets, Titans, and Raiders, left Cincy in good position for a wildcard playoff berth. The final playoff berth will likely come down to the Bengals and Jets, who are also 8-6.

"There's a jolly fat man up North who holds our upcoming fate in his hands," Marvin Lewis said. "Yes, that's right, I'm talking about Rex Ryan. I'll be interested to see how Ryan handles the recent surfacing of news that Mark Sanchez is dating 19-year-old Victoria's Secret model Kate Upton. That can only be a distraction. Apparently, Sanchez can't keep a Secret. I know Sanchez has an affinity for much younger women. He should be careful, lest they erect a 'statue-tory' outside MetLife Stadium in his honor."

The Cardinals won their third overtime game of the year, turning back the Browns 20-17 on Jay Feeley's 22-yard field goal in the extra period. Arizona is 7-7 and tied with the Seahawks for second in the NFC West.

"We've yet to lose an overtime game," Ken Whisenhunt said. "I'll be interested to see how we react to even more 'extra time,' when we'll have plenty of it during the playoffs."

Bengals win, 23-20.

Denver @ Buffalo (+3)

Despite a 41-23 loss to the Patriots, the Broncos still hold the AFC West lead thanks to the Raiders 28-27 loss to the Lions. With two wins in their final two games, the Broncos would host a wildcard playoff game.

"Jesus works in mysterious ways," Tebow said. "And so does the Raiders defense. This has to be the biggest game in Buffalo in years. It's the second coming, of the 'white Bronco.'"

The struggling Bills lost their seventh game in a row, dropping a 30-23 decision to Miami to fall to 5-9.

"I believe it's time to circle the wagons," Chan Gailey said. "That should distract everyone while I high-tail it out of town in a chauffeured white Bronco. The white Bronco in association with the Buffalo Bills can mean only one thing: O.J. Simpson. So the white Bronco the vehicle is just like the white Bronco known as Tim Tebow — they both 'drive away evil.'"

Tebow rushes for one score and passes for another, and the Broncos hold on for a 27-22 win.

St. Louis @ Pittsburgh (-16)

The Rams hung tough with the Bengals before losing 20-13 last week. Now 2-12, St. Louis shares the NFC's worst record with the Vikings.

"The Saints haven't lost since we beat them 31-21 in Week 8," Steve Spagnuolo said. "At least someone's season turned around with that win."

With a hobbled Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers produced little offense in a 20-6 loss in San Francisco on Monday night. With Baltimore's loss to the Chargers, Pittsburgh had a chance to take the outright lead in the AFC North, but came up short against the inspired 49ers.

"The door was left open," Roethlisberger said. "I must have though it was the bathroom door, because I closed it, in the form of three interceptions. I was just in too much pain to be effective. I tried to tell the team doctors that cortisone shots work best with a chaser. But they weren't buying."

Roethlisberger sits, but Charlie Batch is effective, and James Harrison, known in the fearful St. Louis locker room as the "Battering Ram," records 2 sacks and 1 TKO.

Steelers win, 27-3.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-7)

The Panthers whipped the Texans 28-13 last week, shocking the AFC South champs in Houston behind two touchdowns from Cam Newton. On Sunday, Carolina hosts the 4-10 Buccaneers, whom the Panthers whipped 38-19 in Week 13.

"I'm tired of all the talk about Tim Tebow," Newton said, 'when I'm clearly the best dual threat quarterback in the league. And I love Jesus just as much as Tebow. Tebow may be Jesus' favorite white male, but my dad Cecil says I'm Jesus' favorite blackmail."

Tampa fell behind the Cowboys 28-0 last Saturday before finally succumbing 31-15, the Bucs eighth-straight loss. Tampa is 4-10, last in the NFC South.

"We give 'plundering' and 'pillaging' a bad name," Raheem Morris said. "Heck, Napster's done more pirating than the Buccaneers. And served less jail time."

Newton passes for 2 scores and runs for another, and the Panthers win, 31-21.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-9½)

The Jaguars suffered their worst loss of the season, a 41-14 defeat at Atlanta last Thursday. That came on the heels of their biggest win of the season, a 41-14 triumph over Tampa. In his short tenure as Jacksonville's owner, Shahid Khan has seen the best and worst of the Jags.

"That's right," Khan said. "There's a new 'sharif' in town. This Khan is a little bit 'Genghis,' and a little bit 'Chaka.' Jaguars fans should understand that I can be a little ruthless, but 'I feel for you.'"

The Titans playoff hopes took a big hit last Sunday, as Tennessee lost to the lowly Colts 27-13 in Indianapolis. At 7-7, Tennessee will need to win its final two games and hope for help.

"We're staying with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback," Mike Munchak said. "He gives us the best shot at Jake Locker playing later. Plus, Jake makes Chris Johnson look even less effective as a runner."

Tennessee wins, 27-11.

San Diego @ Detroit (-1½)

With a win over the Chargers, the Lions would clinch their first playoff berth since 1999. Last week, Detroit pulled out a 28-27 win in Oakland on Matthew Stafford's 6-yard pass to Calvin Johnson with 39 seconds left.

"Don't forget Ndamukong Suh's contribution," Jim Schwartz said. "He blocked Sebastian Janikowski's 65-yard field goal attempt to preserve the victory. Finally, he did something with a hand, and not his foot or mouth."

San Diego stayed alive in the AFC West race with a decisive 34-14 win over the Ravens last week. The Chargers are 7-7, tied with the Raiders for second in the division, one game behind the Broncos.

"Many people say the Lions are much like the Chargers," Norv Turner said, "in that both teams have adopted the demeanor of their respective coaches. I agree. The Chargers don't know where they'll be in two weeks, and neither do I."

Detroit wins, 27-24.

Philadelphia @ Dallas (-3)

The Eagles stayed alive in the NFC East race with a 45-19 win over the Jets last week. At 6-8, Philadelphia needs two wins, two Dallas losses, and a Giants loss to capture an unlikely division crown.

"I sense a divided locker room," Andy Reid said. "Some players have faith that we can make the playoffs. To them, I say 'keep dreaming.' Others don't think we have a chance. They tell me to 'keep dreaming.'"

Dallas now sits in the driver's seat in the East after Saturday's 31-16 win in Tampa. The Cowboys could clinch the division with a win and a loss by the Giants to the Jets.

"That sounds simple enough," Jerry Jones said. "At least for the Jets. But the Eagles scare me. They're peaking for the first time since mid-August. Me? I'm peeking, because I'm afraid to look."

Philadelphia wins, 34-30.

San Francisco @ Seattle (+1)

The 49ers beat the Steelers 20-6 on Monday night in a game delayed by a two power outages at Candlestick Park. San Francisco improved to 11-3 and currently holds the NFC's No. 2 seed.

"We've dealt with power outages before," Jim Harbaugh said, "usually inside our opponents' 20-yard line. That's called the 'red zone.' We just call it the 'zone,' and David Akers, who leads the NFL in scoring, has been 'in the zone' all year.

"Ideally, we'd like to maintain the No. 2 seed. We'd much rather have New Orleans visit San Francisco than vice versa. The Saints are a different team outdoors. We'd prefer the city of Santa Clara put a roof over our heads as opposed to the Saints."

The Seahawks blasted the Bears 38-14 last week to improve to 7-7, and are still alive in the playoff hunt.

"Right now," Pete Carroll said, "we are the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoff picture. I'm impressed. We weren't even the seventh-best team in the NFC last year, and we made the playoffs."

San Francisco wins, 22-14.

Chicago @ Green Bay (-12)

The Bears lost to the Seahawks 38-14 and fell to 7-7, and although they are still mathematically alive in the playoff race, their chances of a postseason berth are extremely slim.

"Let's face it," Lovie Smith said. "Our season ended when Jay Cutler got hurt. Just like last year. Apparently, it's harder to throw with a broken thumb than it is to ride a bike with a knee injury.

"Caleb Hanie completed only 10 of the 23 passes he threw. Apparently, he had less intent to distribute than Sam Hurd. It seems we didn't do our background checks on either one of them."

The Packers look to rebound from last week's 19-14 loss in Kansas City that derailed their quest for a perfect season. Now 14-1, the Packers can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win over the struggling Bears.

"I'm speechless," Aaron Rodgers said. "More appropriately, I'm at a loss for words. Nobody's perfect. Except the 1972 Dolphins. Apparently, they can't lose anything, except members."

Packers win, 31-13.

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-6½)

Drew Brees passed for 412 yards and 5 touchdowns to lead the Saints to a 42-20 win over the Vikings. Brees has passed for 4,780 yards on the season, and needs just 305 yards in the final two games to surpass Dan Marino's NFL record of 5,084.

"I hope Marino is under the mistletoe," Brees said, "because he can kiss that record goodbye. Let's just say I could break that record wearing Isotoner gloves."

The 9-5 Falcons could win the NFC South with two wins in their final two games coupled with two New Orleans losses.

"Those odds are long," Mike Smith said. "But I've been known to buck odds, as well as conventional wisdom, common sense, and percentages."

New Orleans wins, 31-27.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:37 PM | Comments (0)

December 21, 2011

The Clip Show

The L.A. Clippers have only posted two winning records since their move to Los Angeles in 1984, and in neither one of these seasons did they see the second round of the playoffs. Since their last playoff berth, the Clippers have done some respectable wheeling and dealing (Lamar Odom, Elton Brand, Sam Cassell, Corey Maggette, etc.), but all of their transactions have been made in an attempt to find a player to build a franchise around. As good as some of the aforementioned players are, they have all found their own in a more Robin-esque roll as the second (or third/fourth ... sorry, Lamar) best player on their respected teams.

Cue Blake Griffin. In the Clippers' dismal tenure in Los Angeles, they have had more than their fair share of high draft picks, but none of these picks has become the focal point of an offense around the league (though Eric Gordon still has potential to break the mold). As amazing as Blake Griffin is, he is still in the same, "Oh my, what an amazing athlete!" category as the Darius Miles' and Quentin Richardson's of years past.

Unfortunately for the aforementioned names, though, an athlete is not enough to build a team around. LeBron James is, without a doubt in my mind, the best athlete in the NBA, but after his transition to Miami, I still don't think he has the heart and soul you need to win an NBA championship alone. He made the right move, however, because he has a teammate there who does put his will to win before his will to be the most popular guy in the NBA and that man is Dwyane Wade.

As much as I love (in its strongest sense) watching Blake Griffin play basketball, I can already tell that he is every bit as proud of his fame as he is of his ability to play basketball. Mind you, I don't think he would ever hold a primetime press conference just to tell the people of L.A. he is moving to Miami, but I still believe limelight and a big paycheck seem more appealing to Blake Griffin (and this may change; the guy is only 22) than an NBA championship.

Cue Chauncey Billups and Mo Williams. Both of these players have had great success in other cities (even a ring and a Finals MVP for Billups in Detroit) and both have come to terms with the fact that they are much more successful as role players (Williams with LeBron, Billups with Carmelo Anthony) in these later stages of their careers. The Clippers saw their respective successes with other superstars and decided to bring them in as role playing assets to their flourishing young star, Blake Griffin. When I first heard a proven winner like Chauncey was going to the Clippers, I was convinced they would be a playoff team, but wasn't overly optimistic to them being much more than that.

Cue Chris Paul. People would laugh at me if I said Chris Paul was a better athlete than Blake Griffin. People would even have a case to argue that Chauncey Billups is a better all-around point guard than Paul, but one thing about Chris Paul that sets him apart from most exceptionally talented players like himself is his heart. Chris Paul has an exceptional will, and with the cast forming around him in Los Angeles, I finally think he has the pieces in place to make his run at a championship.

As good as a pickup as Billups was, he is not the man he was in 2004, nor does he still have the same motives to be a champion (he was vocal about being happy to end his career in Denver before the Knicks trade).

Paul, on the other hand, is coming off an all-star season in which he was vocal about wanting to be somewhere he can win a championship, not somewhere he can retire happily. This is the heart that the Clippers need to follow the Dirk Nowitzki's, (matured) Kobe Bryant's, and Ray Allen/Paul Pierce/Kevin Garnett's of recent years to the top of the NBA.

The Hornets did their best to help Paul reach the top (David West is one of the most underrated players in the NBA), but there was still always a missing piece. Now that he has joined a budding team, rather than having one built around him, I think Paul's will to win will be that much stronger in his quest for a championship. He knows the spotlight (metaphorically and literally) is on him in L.A. now, and I can't see why his goal would be anything less than a championship with the supporting cast he has now. Aside from the big names I mentioned previously, the Clippers box office managed to lock down the extremely promising young stars DeAndre Jordan and Eric Bledsoe, as well as a few more solid veterans like Caron Butler and Randy Foye (who had a great year last year).

Many could argue that heart can only go take you so far, as with the Hornets, but arguing the strength of Paul's heart and the places that heart can take you is almost impossible. Watch this video and I think you'll agree.

Paul's biggest obstacle will be staying healthy, as it has been throughout his career, but if he can stay on the court, the Clippers could, without a doubt, be the new "kings" of the Staples Center and maybe even the Western Conference.

Posted by Gary Flick at 1:32 PM | Comments (2)

Braun, With Brains

As regards the Ryan Braun hoopla, there remains a presumption of innocence in law, in regulation, and in plain fact, if not necessarily in the proverbial court of public opinion. And public opinion's consistency is, and has usually been, only slightly more reliable than the consistency of the average public office holder. That said, a further observation or three:

1) Michael Weiner, the executive director of the Major League Baseball Players' Association, stresses that baseball's stringent enough drug testing policies were designed in part to prevent a rush to judgment. Never mind that it will do nothing of the sort in actual fact, considering that rushing to judgment is precisely what enough professional baseball analysts and elements of public opinion are doing.

2) Senator John McCain (R-Arizona), who resists few opportunities for even an abbreviated grandstand, thought he was being funny when he called for a do-over of the National League Division Series in which the Milwaukee Brewers out-lasted the Arizona Diamondbacks. It would appear the thing McCain can resist even less than a chance for a grandstand is the chance to point the way to wisdom by taking positions exactly opposed to it.

3) Braun is taking risk enough in taking the offensive since his positive drug test was made news by T.J. Quinn and Mark Fainaru-Wada of ESPN. If his appeal is denied, if he cannot convince arbitrator Shyam Dyas that the test was indeed erroneous, he's going to look foolish at best.

4) Those who observe that Braun doesn't fit the stereotype, actual or alleged, of those who have been known to use performance-enhancing substances, actual or alleged, have a pretty point. Aside from his physical appearance, Braun in 2011 actually experience nothing of the kind of statistical spike from his career averages that one might think somewhat typical of the PED (actual or alleged) user. Since the positive test occurred during the postseason, there is, as Jayson Stark reminds us, no evidence–none–that Braun was doing something untoward during the regular season, which is what the Most Valuable Player award addresses. Consider:

a) He hit 33 home runs on the regular season, which happens to be one home run higher than his career seasonal average to date.

b) He had 77 total extra base hits, which happens to be two higher than his to-date career seasonal average.

c) He hit one more double (38) than his career seasonal average.

d) He scored eight more runs and drove in five more than his career seasonal averages.

e) His 2011 on-base and slugging percentages were higher than his 2010 figures, but neither of the 2011 percentages was his career peak.

f) ESPN's Home Run Tracker determined that Braun's average home run distance in fact shrank during 2011–to 407.3, from 408.2.

5) It is not unreasonable to conclude that Braun won his Most Valuable Player award on the square, or at least on grounds nothing much different than his career thus far.

6) It was further reasonable, even before the October test result became known, to question Braun's MVP on the grounds that a player who was worth 7.7 wins above a replacement-level player should not have been considered the most valuable player above another player, Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers, who was worth 10.0 wins above a replacement-level player. Had the Dodgers not been a turmoil-wracked team, the turmoil not exactly residing in their clubhouse, destined for a near no-show in the National League West otherwise, Kemp and not Braun would have been the National League's most obvious MVP.

7) Those who clamor for the revocation of Braun's MVP may be clamoring for not just a slippery slope, but a snapped elevator cable. If you want to revoke Braun's MVP before there is final and incontrovertible proof that he cheated, that he derived an unreasonable performance advantage, never mind that you'd be arguing he "cheated" his way to practically his career averages, are you prepared to revoke previous hardware awarded previous performers caught or confessing to have used actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances during the period the hardware recognized?

8) You'd be very hard pressed to argue that Braun enjoyed any kind of competitive advantage untied to his core ability, considering the Brewers required a complete five-game set to push the Diamondbacks to one side — with only Game 5 being a close-game win — and move on to lose the pennant in a six-game set to the Cardinals. Both Brewer wins in the set were reasonably close; the Cardinals won one close game (Game 3) and ran away with two games (Game 2 and 6) that looked close only for brief interludes (they led 5-2 after four in Game 2; they had a 5-4 lead after two in Game 6, before a 4-run outburst in the top of the third to which the Brewers had few if any answers the rest of the game).

9) Braun could very well enjoy a sad last laugh — indeed, it now appears that his positive test may have been triggered by legitimate medication he is taking for a condition he has not yet made public (and anyone who says such conditions are unheard-of has a) forgotten a few other instances of previously discreet afflictions, and b) been talking through his or her chapeau) — ryanand it would do nothing toward dissipating the syndrome of denying the facts their precedence over a juicy story.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:40 AM | Comments (10)

December 20, 2011

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Chicago Bears average points per game: with Jay Cutler, 26.8; without Cutler, 11.8.

* Great job handling the power outage at Candlestick Park. A round of applause for everyone involved.

* Jon Gruden is so mean-spirited and combative as an announcer. Mike Tirico and Ron Jaworski want to be his friend even when they disagree, but Gruden makes everything personal. This week, Tirico pleaded with him, "When did facts become criticism?" What an awkward booth, really uncomfortable to listen to most weeks.

* Chris Johnson has rushed for over 100 yards four times this season. He's rushed for under 70 yards the other 10 times, with no games between 70-100.

* Everyone makes this mistake, but it's still surprising to see it on a big site that has editors, like NFL.com. The term is "shoo-in," not "shoe-in." That doesn't even make any sense. Also, it's a dog eat dog world, not a doggy-dog world.

***

Regular readers know that I often comment on announcers and analysts, usually to suggest things that might be handled differently. If you just want to get the rankings, scroll down a bit and you'll find them. Brackets show last week's rank.

With regard to announcers, we'll start on Saturday night. As part of the NFL Network pre-game show, Deion Sanders shared with viewers his list of the best quarterbacks in the game: "I think Tony Romo is one of the elite quarterbacks in the game today, but let me read off a quick list — Brady, Big Ben, Manning, Brees, Eli — they can win with virtually no help ... you have Rivers, Flacco, and Matt Ryan, I think those are the next procession of guys, along with Romo, who need a little help." Do you notice anyone missing from that list? I listened to this clip three or four times, and it's word for word, plus Deion was reading off notes, so this wasn't just off the top of his head.

WHERE ON EARTH IS AARON RODGERS?

For that matter, what about Matt Schaub, Matt Stafford, Cam Newton? You prefer Joe Flacco over those guys? And Eli Manning ahead of Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan? Wow. It's also interesting how quickly Michael Vick has dropped off these lists.

When the game started, Brad Nessler announced to viewers that the broadcast was their second game in two days. Thursday, Friday, Saturday makes three days, tiger. I also liked when Nessler proclaimed, "Another costly penalty ... although declined." Yeah, real costly. Check out the big brain on Brad. Sunday, Joe Buck — who actually has been far less annoying this season than in the past — was doing the play by play of Washington's visit to the Giants when he made this call: "He finds an open receiver, but the play is broken up." Wait, what?

If a guy is open, that means he's not covered. If the play was broken up, that means he was covered. The term "open" is just routinely abused by play-by-play announcers. One more announcer comment in the St. Louis section, for those who are interested.

1. Green Bay Packers [1] — With Greg Jennings out of action, Aaron Rodgers posted his lowest passer rating of the season — by almost 20 points. Through Week 12, Rodgers' lowest rating of the year was 111.4 at Chicago in Week 3. Overall, he was at 127.7. Since then: 106.2, 96.7, 80.1. Those are still good marks, but not really dominant. Injuries are becoming a major problem, and I'm sure the team would benefit from some rest, but I hope Mike McCarthy will be mindful that their first playoff game isn't until the middle of January. You don't want anyone else to get hurt, but you want to enter the playoffs with some rhythm and momentum. It's hard to be confident if you haven't won in a month.

2. New Orleans Saints [2] — I recently ran across an old column from 2004, in which I noted that Michael Irvin had torn into Steve Young for comparing Drew Brees' season to Kurt Warner's 1999. I've said stupid things, too — in the same article, I called for the Seahawks to fire Mike Holmgren, one year before he led them to Super Bowl XL — but I bet Irvin would like to have that one back. Brees has already had a better career than Warner. He could retire today and he'd be a Hall of Famer. That said, his blatant pursuit of the consecutive-games-with-a-passing-touchdown record is a little off-putting.

3. New England Patriots [4] — Lost Andre Carter for the season with a quad injury. Carter led the team in sacks (10), and his loss is a major blow to a defense that doesn't need any more weaknesses. The Patriots have clinched the AFC East and are positioned for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Best point differentials in the AFC: Patriots +140, Texans +107, Ravens +98, Steelers +67, Chargers +45, Jets +31.

4. Baltimore Ravens [3] — With Lardarius Webb limited by injury, they yielded a season-high 31 points against San Diego. Who's more important to this team, Ray Lewis or Webb? The Ravens went 4-0 with Ray on the sidelines, allowing just 12.5 points per game in his absence. With Lewis, they're 6-4 and that average is 18.6. Look, Ray Lewis is an all-time great. At this point in his career, though, it's not apparent that he's an above-average player.

5. San Francisco 49ers [8] — David Akers is on my fantasy team, so don't interpret this as a complaint. But man, the 49ers suck in the red zone. The Niners are obviously a good team, and that defense can take them a long way, but I've never seen a Super Bowl contender that couldn't score touchdowns. Akers broke Jerry Rice's single-season team record for scoring, but what the ESPN telecast didn't mention was that Rice did it in 12 games. His record was set during the 1987 strike season.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers [5] — "I don't get it. I understand the competing part, but you're three scores down with a buck fifty-one to go ... I don't know why he's out there." That's Ron Jaworski at the end of Monday's game. Ben Roethlisberger, coming off a high ankle sprain and widely expected to sit this week out, played all 60 minutes. He committed four turnovers and got hit repeatedly, especially near the end of the game, when rookie Aldon Smith teed off on him for what seemed like almost every play. There's proving you're tough, and there's proving you're a poor decision-maker. This wasn't proving you're tough.

7. Atlanta Falcons [7] — Won four of their last five, and seven of nine. Last week, I mentioned that it seemed excessive for the Falcons to be favored by 12½ against Jacksonville. Lo and behold, Atlanta won by 27. I am a huge believer in what Paul Zimmerman (Dr. Z) used to call trap games. If the line is way off from what it seems like it should be, there's probably a reason. The linemakers are practically begging you to take what looks like an easy win. Don't do it — go against your instincts and bet the other way. This doesn't always work, of course, but a little cash on the Falcons last week would have come back a winner.

8. Houston Texans [6] — With coordinator Wade Phillips on medical leave, the Houston defense gave up 20 points for the first time in more than two months (Baltimore, Week 6) and allowed more than two touchdowns for the first time since Week 3 against the Saints. The Texans are 0-4 when their opponent scores 20+. Arian Foster this week became the first running back since Priest Holmes with back-to-back 600-yard receiving seasons.

9. Seattle Seahawks [12] — Won by at least 17 points for the third week in a row. Marshawn Lynch has rightly drawn a lot of positive attention, but Lynch averaged 2.1 yards per attempt in Week 15. The Seahawks won, and won big, because of their defense. They grabbed 5 takeaways, including two returned for touchdowns. They started six drives at or beyond their own 40-yard line. Chicago didn't run a single play in the red zone. Seattle ranks sixth in the NFL in fewest points allowed (273), far better than teams with great defensive reputations, like the Bears (293) and Jets (315).

10. Arizona Cardinals [13] — Third home game in a row, all wins. The Cardinals are 5-2 in Arizona, 2-5 on the road. John Skelton has directed four of the wins, but it's not clear to me that he's outperformed Kevin Kolb. Skelton is a little better runner and he's done better avoiding sacks, but Kolb is ahead in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and interception percentage. Overall, Kolb's passer rating (81.1) is far better than Skelton's (69.8). The team's improvement has been mostly about defense and the ground game, not Skelton's league-worst 5.2% interception rate. Rex Grossman (4.8%) thinks Skelton needs to be more careful with the ball.

11. Denver Broncos [9] — With so many people anxious to deflect credit from Kordell Stewart Tim Tebow, I wonder if we've been overrating their defense. It's true that the unit has improved dramatically since early in the season, but it still ranks 22nd in yards allowed and 24th in points allowed. I mean, that's not really elite. In the last three weeks, they shut down Caleb Hanie and the Bears, but allowed 41 to the Patriots and a season-high 32 for Minnesota.

Tebow fumbled twice against New England. Everyone mentions that he's not throwing interceptions — just two all season, a phenomenal 0.9% INT percentage — but he has lost four fumbles. Tebow's 10 fumbles are as many as Cam Newton and Andy Dalton combined. Or Rodgers, Brees, and Brady combined. He's actually 5th in the NFL in fumbles, even though he didn't start until Week 7.

12. San Diego Chargers [18] — Third straight game winning by at least 20. It's stunning that this team has two 3-game winning streaks, and it's 7-7. San Diego looks as dangerous as anyone right now, but there are two big questions hovering over this team. One is, can they win on the road? The Chargers are just 2-4 away from San Diego, and the last two games are on the road. The other question is how they'll hold up in tight games. The Chargers play so well from ahead, and with that great passing game, they're never out of it, but the team hasn't responded well to adversity this season. Purely as a fan, I'd like to see them in the playoffs. They're fun to watch when everything's clicking.

13. Dallas Cowboys [15] — My favorite stat from their blowout win over Tampa: at halftime, Tony Romo had more completions (18) than Josh Freeman had yards (14). The Cowboys finished with four times as many first downs and more than doubled the Buccaneers' yardage.

14. New York Jets [10] — Worst loss since their 45-3 whipping from the Patriots in Week 13 last year. Who suffered a more embarrassing defeat to an NFC East opponent with a losing record in Week 15, the Jets or their stadium-mates and Week 16 opponent, the Giants? I know the media doesn't want to admit it, but the loser of that game is not going to the playoffs. I'm not sure the winner is, either, but they'll certainly have a better chance.

15. Detroit Lions [16] — Will clinch their first playoff berth in over a decade if they win either of their final two games. Unfortunately, they face the red-hot Chargers, then the Packers in Green Bay. If I had to guess, I'd say they get in, but it's no sure thing. Cliff Avril got to Carson Palmer twice in Week 15. Lions with double-digit sacks since their last postseason appearance:

Robert Porcher, 2001 (11.0)
James Hall, 2004 (11.5)
Ndamukong Suh, 2010 (10.0)
Cliff Avril, 2011 (11.0 and counting)

The team record is 23, by Al "Bubba" Baker in 1978. Since sacks became an official statistic in 1982, the mark is 15.0, by Porcher in 1999.

16. Cincinnati Bengals [17] — It seems like nobody is talking about this, but the Bengals are tied for the last wild card in the AFC, and both of their final two games are at home. They're tough matchups, against the Cardinals and Ravens, but it's not obvious to me that the big-market Jets have a better shot at the postseason than the small-market Bengals. Non-football thought: in real life, how many cardinals or ravens would have to attack a bengal en masse before you'd bet on the birds? For cardinals, I'm saying at least two dozen.

17. Tennessee Titans [11] — Devastating loss on a day when they could have moved into the driver's seat for a playoff berth. Matt Hasselbeck's early-season resurgence has taken a serious nose dive:

First four games: 288 yds/gm, 104.7 rating
Ten games since: 177 yds/gm, 70.8 rating

Some of that decline is probably just regression to the mean — anyone playing at a very high level is likely to return to average eventually. And some of Hasselbeck's dropoff is probably related to Kenny Britt's season-ending injury in Week 3. Some of it was just the league adjusting to Hasselbeck and Tennessee's new offense, some of it was defenses focusing less on an inconsistent and ineffective Chris Johnson. But almost certainly, some of Hasselbeck's decline should be attributed to age (36) and injuries. You wonder how much longer he can play.

18. Philadelphia Eagles [19] — Scoring 3 TDs in their rout of the Jets, LeSean McCoy broke Steve Van Buren's 66-year-old team record for single-season TDs. The difference? Van Buren set his record in a 10-game season. He may be the most underrated player in the Hall of Fame, a superstar in his day, but largely unknown now. McCoy hasn't nearly equaled Van Buren's historic 1945 campaign, but I do believe he's been the best RB in the NFL this season. McCoy has scored in every game this year but one, the Week 11 victory over the Giants, when he rushed for 113 yards.

19. New York Giants [14] — If Tony Romo had a game like Eli Manning did on Sunday, what would people say? I know there were some ugly drops, but 3 interceptions with no TDs and a 45.5 rating? There's no way to twist that into a good game. If Romo had the exact same game as Eli, fans and journalists would crucify him. It's the December jinx. He choked in a critical game. He's a bum, put in Jon Kitna. It wouldn't be an NFL season without fiery criticism for Romo, and fawning adulation for Eli Manning, but Romo's TD/INT differential this season is +20. Manning's is +10. Halfway through the second quarter, Washington had more TDs than Eli had completions.

Tom Coughlin, who used to be the most efficient coach in the NFL on replay challenges, is just 3/10 this year, including a couple of really strange ones with no real hope of success. Coughlin also called a timeout, trailing 23-3, with :37 left in the game. He even tried an onside kick with :34 left. The game's over, jackass. All you can do now is (1) waste everyone's time, and (2) get players hurt. John Harbaugh did the same thing on Sunday night. I appreciate a competitive spirit, but you can't come back from 20 down in the final minute. That's never happened, and it never will. What you can do is get people hurt. Grow up.

20. Carolina Panthers [22] — Fifth straight game scoring over 20 points. Last season, they scored 20 only twice all year. That's up to 11 already with Ron Rivera and Cam Newton at the controls. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski has done a nice job, as well. Here's something weird: Newton has fewer passing yards than the opposing quarterback in every game since October 30th (Week 8 vs. MIN).

21. Miami Dolphins [20] — In New Orleans, Reggie Bush averaged 3.99 yards per carry. In Miami this year, he's averaging 5.02, with significantly more attempts. How have the Dolphins been able to use him so much more effectively than the Saints did? With 973 rushing yards and two games to go, Bush has a good chance — in his sixth season — to double his previous career high (581).

22. Washington Redskins [27] — I thought the Giants would beat them, but was Sunday's victory really as shocking as the media implied? Washington gave the Patriots and Jets all they could handle, and it's the last team to beat Seattle, which otherwise is 5-0 since Week 9. London Fletcher's performance this season, at age 36, is remarkable. Against the Giants, Fletcher had 10 solo tackles and a forced fumble, plus a pass deflection that led to an interception. He's probably one of the five best inside linebackers in the league. It looks like he still has good years in front of him, but already, I believe Fletcher deserves serious Hall of Fame consideration.

23. Kansas City Chiefs [29] — Very nice win for Romeo Crennel and Kyle Orton. I don't know how many of Sunday's upsets were related to taking an opponent lightly. If I had to pick one, it actually would be the Giants game. I think they were so focused on the matchup with Dallas the week before, they were drained afterwards and maybe a little overconfident. But in a way it's not surprising that Green Bay lost to a mediocre team rather than a great one. I can't remember any comparable late-season upsets in the last decade, but there are two I always think of:

1997, Week 12: 8-2 Packers lose at 0-10 Colts
1998, Week 15: 13-0 Broncos lose at 5-8 Giants

It's going to be tough with Terrell Suggs and DeMarcus Ware out there, but Tamba Hali deserves serious all-pro consideration.

24. Cleveland Browns [28] — Fourth loss in a row, but all against teams in playoff contention, a combined 35-21 (.625). The Browns rise less because of their decent performance against the Cardinals than the sad declines of the Bears, Bills, Jaguars, and Raiders, all of whom were ranked ahead of Cleveland last week.

25. Oakland Raiders [23] — Three straight losses, immediately following three consecutive wins to close November. Darrius Heyward-Bey set career-highs in receptions (8) and receiving yards (155) on Sunday, while tying his career-high for touchdowns (1). This is Heyward-Bey's third season in the NFL. He has 5 career TDs.

26. Chicago Bears [21] — My policy in this column is always that teams are ranked on how good they are right now, and right now, the Bears are missing their two most important offensive players. Caleb Hanie is a disaster, and the team has lost four straight. Johnny Knox suffered a horrific back injury on Sunday, but it reportedly is not career-threatening.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars [25] — Trailing 27-0 at halftime, they had more turnovers (2) than net passing yards (1). Blaine Gabbert absolutely should not be playing quarterback in the NFL right now. He has the physical tools — size, good arm — but he has trouble reading defenses, and his decision-making is atrocious. His whole style of play is defined by anxiety and indecision. Is it worse for Gabbert's long-term confidence to bench him, or to keep putting him out there to fail? It was irresponsible to enter the season with Gabbert as the starter and no one else to give him a break in case things played out the way they have. This team's personnel decisions over the last eight months or so are as bad as any team in the NFL. The Jags went 8-8 last year.

28. Buffalo Bills [24] — C.J. Spiller had a career day against Miami. Unfortunately, all of the Dolphins had career days against Buffalo. The Bills, who started 3-0 and 5-2, now have the same record as the Dolphins, who started 0-7.

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [26] — Worst point differential in the NFC: Rams -180, Buccaneers -154, Vikings -112, Washington -48. The Bucs have lost by double-digits six times this year, including three in a row.

30. Minnesota Vikings [30] — Gave up three times as many first downs (36) as they gained (12). That only happens a handful of times per season. The Vikings are 0-6 since the bye, and they've been outscored by over 100 points this season, 406-294.

31. St. Louis Rams [31] — The worst announcer I've heard this season, by far, has been Dan Dierdorf (whom I actually liked as recently as last year). Describing a sack on Kellen Clemens, Dierdorf actually said this: "He didn't feel that coming at all ... luckily, he saw it." Right after the play, Dierdorf declared that Clemens didn't know a hit was coming, and upon watching the replay, tried to cover up his mistake when he noticed that Clemens unmistakably ducked before contact. I know, all announcers make goofs like that sometimes. As viewers, I think it's our right to have a little fun with that. If Deion Sanders forgot about Aaron Rodgers, or Brad Nessler can't count to three, that's amusing.

So my problem with Dierdorf isn't that he said something he assumed was true, that turned out not to be. My problem is that he's a cheerleader. Dierdorf is so married to specific storylines from before the game that he never departs from them, sometimes in outright defiance of reality. His "analysis" is totally dishonest, and he should be ashamed of it. Also, CBS should be ashamed that when the officials called an unnecessary roughness penalty after the play, viewers never saw what happened. After a significant call like that, especially one that prompts the crowd to chant, "Ref, you suck," fans deserve a replay. Bush league.

32. Indianapolis Colts [32] — First win without Peyton Manning since December 14, 1997 — more than 14 years ago. Dan Orlovsky passed for 82 yards, with a long of 18, as the Colts at least partially dodged infamy. They were outgained by 100 yards and gave up more than twice as many first downs as they gained.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 6:18 PM | Comments (2)

December 19, 2011

Hey, Over Here!

While neither of the following two games is necessarily going to draw big ratings, or even be the best games on the day they're played (January 2nd), they both feature fascinating backstories that promise to elevate them above the level of interest that has been generated by the media and fans.

Houston vs. Penn State (TicketCity Bowl)

More than just on the surface, where this is a game pitting two top-25 teams against each other, this matchup has everything, including some stories developing off the gridiron. The story for Penn State is both obvious and tragic, so I won't rehash it here.

For Houston, the story remains largely focused on their shortcomings against Southern Mississippi in the C-USA championship game, which the Cougars lost by a score of 49-28. It wouldn't have been a big deal if a win wouldn't have guaranteed the team its first BCS bowl bid ever, and once again raised some necessary questions about how the BCS determines college football's champion each year.

As it stands today, Houston could very well end the year outside of the top-25 with a loss in this game, and Penn State's football program could be described as a mess at best. Both teams have talent, however, with the Nittany Lions having stayed in the Big 10 title hunt for most of the year, and the Cougars following the leadership of (at least statistically) the most prolific QB in the history of college football, Case Keenum.

The high-powered offense of the Cougars vs. the Big 10 battle-tested defense of Penn State will be the big matchup in this one. I'll take Keenum and company, by final score of 31-30.

Ohio State vs. Florida (Gator bowl)

While neither team is in the top 25 (or over .500, for that matter) this game has a lot of promise.

First, let's start with the obvious, which is that Florida's old head coach Urban Meyer, who led the team to two national championships before an abrupt retirement, will be the head coach of their opponent in this game starting in 2012. If that fact isn't mentioned at least half a dozen times during the broadcast, I'll be shocked.

Beyond that, there's also the fact that the two teams had eerily similar years in 2011. Both teams went 6-6 overall, both teams went 3-5 in their conference, and both teams averaged 25 points-per-game, while giving up 21 points-per-game.

While Ohio State is enjoying the new of the addition of Urban Meyer, Florida is lamenting the loss of offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, who will be in his fourth different coaching job since 2009 after accepting an offer to become the head coach at Kansas.

Given how the teams matchup strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness, this game should come down to the wire. I'll take Florida, by a final score of 27-24.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 4:57 PM | Comments (0)

Hollywood Roles For Tennis Stars

I saw this week the last installment of "Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol." While I enjoyed the non-stop action of the movie, a crazy idea came to me. I began to wonder under which role a particular tennis star would perform at his or her best. For example, who would be Ethan Hunt, the head of the team in "Mission: Impossible?" Who would play the nerd/geek role that Simon Pegg nails down so well in Ghost Protocol? Would Serena Williams outplay Grace Jones, Denise Richards, or Halle Berry as the leading woman in a James Bond movie? Who would be the next "Psycho" after Anthony Hopkins, or the next Uma Thurman in another "Kill Bill?"

Both the WTA and ATP Tours are in a much-needed seasonal break, and writing about the preparations of the players for the 2012 season or a recap of 2011 simply don't seem to be attractive options since the latter has probably been already done at least a dozen times in the last couple of weeks, and the former slides dangerously close to "who cares?" category. So why not venture a bit into the imagination and try to guess which tennis star would feel most in his element in a given role?

I am not sure if he has the athletic abilities of Tom Cruise as Ethan Hunt — at least the one we see on the screen aided by special effects — but after much thought, I felt like the only player who could pull the mastermind planning and execution of an impossible mission such as the ones Ethan Hunt faces, would be none other than the smooth, deceiving, yet effective Miroslav Mecir. On the court, Mecir would move with the same smoothness that Hunt climbs mountains and buildings, deceptively gliding with style. But his true genius was in the way he constructed the points in his head and executed his shots with his underrated wrist control. Without a doubt, Mr. Mecir could definitely pull off the complicated planning that Cruise seems to accomplish while managing to look so "cool." Yes, chalk Mecir up for the next Ethan Hunt role.

There is always a cocktail party thrown by a handsome rich man in his multi-million dollar home in these types of movies. There is always a scene in which the likes of James Bond or Ethan Hunt, while wearing a dazzling suit, have to attend a party taking place in a mansion with a decor that goes beyond any comprehensible standard of luxury or creativity. And who would be the host of these types of parties? Mr. Roger Federer, of course.

This time, instead of welcoming his guests in his player box where we often see famous personalities sitting and chatting with the lovely Mirka, he would welcome them in his home sporting three different floors with vast hallways and a professional modern dance group on each floor performing the various choreographies designed by the ultimate artists in the business. It would only be fitting: Federer with his sparkling smile, wearing a sharp suit (probably all white, echoing the jacket at Wimbledon), and striking up conversations with the guests in several different languages. Yes, that secondary guest role of the rich socialite host in the next Bond or Hunt movie goes to Federer.

Next, we shift gears and look into an epic, maybe historical, movie where we go back a century or two and discover the story of a famous family whose beautiful daughter has to settle for a pre-arranged marriage with some prince for whom she has no feelings, while she is longing for the forbidden love of the tailor's son who works hard down the street to support his family in the town that his family rules over. A number of scenes would show her looking out the window of the palace in which she lives, staring into the distance to the lowly neighborhoods with teary eyes, while the reflection of the sunset on her beautiful skin makes her look that much more melancholic.

Could anyone belong to that role better than Maria Sharapova? Imagine her walking with grace, wearing an old-style yet timeless dress in a corridor decorated with golden mirrors and chandeliers, and you might begin to picture where I am headed with this idea. Yes, let's designate Maria Sharapova as the chagrined, beautiful heiress of a famous house who can't seem to fulfill her heart's wish.

Do you remember the first "Rambo" movie with Sylvester Stallone? He looked rough, sexy, and muscular, and wore a sleeveless shirt to display his developed arm and shoulders. On top of that, he had long straight dark hair. Do you see where this is going? If not, simply substitute Rambo's nationality with that of a Spanish one. Now, do you see it? Who else in today's tennis would be better at roughing several trained other enemies in the jungle, move with the quickness and ferocity of a determined hunter? None other than Rafael Nadal. Change Rambo to Rafa, and there is our next tennis celebrity turned Hollywood character.

What about the once-in-a-while role of the young, up-and-coming young politician who is good looking, smart, and knows how to play women and the game of politics at the same time? Well, considering that he is playing that role in real life as we speak (he has just been elected to the Russian parliament), Marat Safin, the once bad boy of tennis, could be the next ex-athlete to rise up the steps of politics, heading all the way to the top. Oliver Stone should be on the lookout. One thing we know for sure is that Safin will not have the speech problems of King George VI.

And for the next movie depicting some rebel character from the IRA, may I suggest the director to look no further than Andy Murray. Yes, I know he is Scottish and not Irish, but I am assuming that if Brad Pitt can do an Irish accent fairly well as he did in "The Devil's Own" (1997), Murray should not have a problem with it, either. He certainly will not have any trouble playing the rebel who squints his eyes and complains about anything that may approach him dangerously close to a peaceful existence.

By the way, I am insisting on Serena Williams as the next Bond girl; and as far as I am concerned, Vera Zvonareva can have the next psychopathic dancer role with dual personalities, à la Natalie Portman in "Black Swan." I will let the readers decide in which roles they see fit the likes of Novak Djokovic, John McEnroe, Caroline Wozniacki, Martina Navratilova (the next "Million Dollar Baby?"), and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

In the meantime, I wish everyone a wonderful holiday season!

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:42 AM | Comments (5)

December 18, 2011

Forward to the Past

In 1811, a mob of anti-technology British crusaders known as Luddites protested the changes produced by the Industrial Revolution in general and automated looms in particular. Destroying factory machinery, burning mills, and intimidating opponents, they fought a doomed crusade to stem innovation's inevitable advance. And though the movement lasting only two years is little more than an obscure footnote to European history, its spirit lives on in those opposing technological changes in a game played an ocean away and two centuries into the future.

As the Luddites before them, those opposing the expanded use of instant replay in major league baseball base their objections less on rational thought than on illogical fears of change. Baseball purists celebrate its sacred cow traditions and rationalize its imperfections as further proof of the game's not to be tampered with flawlessness. Umpiring mistakes are part of the game's allure. "Yer blind, you bum" taunts from fans are reminders of days gone by. And on-the-field arguments after blown calls are inseparable from the game's charm.

That Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner, and Cy Young would have little trouble recognizing today's game is not evidence of perfection. Respect for tradition is one thing; yet a reflexive unwillingness to improve what clearly needs improving is a tradition unworthy of veneration. And by unthinkingly embracing an idealized vision of what was, modern day Luddites are looking less positively back to the future than negatively forward to the past.

Of all the arguments against expanding instant replay in professional baseball, arguably the most absurd is the loss of the "human element." At its simplest level, reflexive worship of this defining characteristic of America's pastime is a euphemistic willingness to accept umpiring errors however undeniable in fact and harmful in result. As Bud Selig has said, "The humanness (read mistakes) of the umpires is part of the game."

Though technology exists to reduce errors, because to err is human and to umpire is to err, replay critics insist it shouldn't be used. And though the logic is unfathomable the result is clear. Blind to what needs to be done, baseball has ensured its umpires equal blindness to mistakes that are plainly visible to anyone with a television set.

Instant replay doesn't eliminate the human element. It supports it. Does a car eliminate the human element because it is more efficient than walking? Does a computer eliminate the human element because it more efficiently gathers information? Does an aspirin eliminate the human element because it "unnaturally" reduces pain? Humans rely on an infinite number of advancements every day to enhance their lives. Why should it be any different for baseball?

Comparatively, other major professional sports recognize that technology as an officiating aid does not violate the human element by changing it. To that end, the human element has not been eliminated by the NFL adopting instant replay in 1999, the NHL in 1991, and the NBA in 2002. After all, who created the technology on which instant replay is based? Aliens? And who reviews instant replay videos? Robots?

Still another argument against instant replay is that it will slow the game down. True, at times games seem interminably long in an interminably long season. And true, since the 1970s the average time for games has increased some 20 minutes to just under three hours. Yet however slow-moving baseball is or may appear to be, it has nothing to do with its current limited form of replay and would unlikely slow further should its use be expanded.

The lengthening of games over the last forty years is due to increased commercial time and unenforced rules requiring pitchers to promptly pitch and hitters to remain in the batter's box. Longer games have nothing to do with baseball replays introduced in 2008 for disputed home runs. Indeed, since then the duration of games has remained constant at about two hours and 50 minutes: a full 17 minutes shorter than average NFL contests. If anything, with fewer protracted on-the-field arguments for questionable home runs, current replays may have actually slowed the lengthening game inertia prior to its initiation.

But what if instant replay was expanded to include disputed fair-or-foul decisions and caught-or-trapped balls as the new MLB labor agreement calls for? Wouldn't that extend the length of games even more? The answer is not really. For a 12-day period extending from the end of June to mid-July 2010, ESPN reviewed every call in every game played during that period. Excluding balls and strikes, only 1.3 calls per game were questionable enough for instant replay review. While replaying this small number of close calls would unlikely slow the pace of games, there is little doubt that lacking review, these calls significantly impacted game results. According to ESPN, in this sample of close calls umpire decisions were wrong twenty percent of the time.

An equally ludicrous objection to expanding replay is that doing so would still not guarantee decision-making accuracy. While true that a foolproof replay system is an impossibility, failure to reach an absurdly high standard of success is not evidence to abandon its implementation. It is reason to further its use. For if falling short of perfection disqualifies cutting edge technology from assisting umpires, how then is it reasonable to accept far less perfection without its benefit?

The final argument opposing instant replay is that in the long run errors even themselves out. True, given enough games over enough seasons, blown calls will likely balance out for all teams. And true, giving enough monkeys enough time with enough typewriters they might reproduce Hamlet. However, in the short-term, it is highly unlikely that simians will mimic Shakespeare or that umpiring blunders will equalize. This could prove fatal for the team at the wrong end of a short-term screw-up in a heated pennant race or playoff series. And in our "whatever can go wrong will go wrong" world, this has happened before and undoubtedly will happen again.

There is little value in detailing the most outrageously bad umpiring gaffes in the most significant of games. In contests big and small, in moments undeniably significant and seemingly trivial, anyone following our national pastime for any length of time knows that correctable "human element" mistakes are regularly made that are not part of the romance of the game. "Getting it right" should trump virtually all objections. Unfortunately, that has not always been the case.

Most diehard fans already know of Don Denkinger's World Series call in 1985 leading to a Cardinal loss and Kansas City's only title. Even lesser followers associate the names of Jeffrey Maier and Steve Bartman with interference calls never made in the ALCS of 1996 and the NLCS of 2003. And even the most casual of water cooler enthusiasts know that a pitcher lost a perfect game last year when an umpire called a runner safe who was clearly out.

Not expanding replay is yet another "whatever can go wrong will go wrong" disaster waiting to happen. Each blunder is another brick in the wall undermining the integrity of a game that in revenue, in average attendance, in television ratings, and in "most favorite sport" surveys is no longer our national pastime.

At least in small part, this is due to an unwavering embrace of what was for what should be. Deeply and mindlessly rooted in tradition, it will continue to be so at its peril. For until recently unwilling to make necessary changes, baseball increasingly resembled an unable to adapt dinosaur moving forward to the past. And now subject to an agreement with umpires, the new MLB labor contract requires the expanded use of instant replay. At long last, it is hoped that this is one decision that the men in blue have the foresight not to screw up.

Posted by Neil Bright at 3:44 PM | Comments (3)

December 17, 2011

Foul Territory: "Cage" Brawls, "Brew" Balls

* Strange Brew, or Milwaukee's Test — Milwaukee Brewers outfielder and National League most valuable player Ryan Braun tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. Braun is appealing the case, attempting to become the first MLB player to overturn a positive test. So it remains to be seen whether Braun will be pissed off or pissed on.

* Sitting 8 Count — Cincinnati and Xavier each suspended four players for their roles in a brawl that ended last Saturday's 76-53 Xavier win. Not to condone fighting in sports, but the brawl was easily the most competitive moment of the game.

* Oozing Machido, or Brazilian Wax, or No Bones About it — Jon Jones submitted Lyoto Machida with a standing guillotine choke to retain the light heavyweight title at UFC 140 on Saturday. Widely hailed as the greatest pound-for-pound fighter in the world, Jones has taken cage fighting to a new level, offsetting the accomplishments of the Cincinnati and Xavier basketball teams, who took "cage" fighting to new lows.

* Brain Freeze, or Lurch of the Penguin, or "Ding" Crosby" — Pittsburgh Penguin Sidney Crosby is out indefinitely after a recurrence of concussion-like symptoms. Crosby could return soon if cleared to play by Penguins doctors, or sooner if cleared to play by Steelers doctors.

* Luck Had No Bearing on the Outcome — Baylor's Robert Griffin III won the Heisman Trophy, outpointing Andrew Luck to win college football's most prestigious trophy. If he remains in school, Griffin has a chance to become only the second two-time winner, an amazing feat considering he just became the first III-time winner.

* Repeat Defender, or Mug Shot — Pittsburgh's James Harrison was suspended for one game for his helmet-to-helmet hit on Cleveland's Colt McCoy last Thursday. Upon hearing of the suspension, Harrison tweeted "LOL!" and appealed. The NFL rejected the appeal, and Roger Goodell reportedly tweeted, "You're a pill. Denied!"

* Close, Sesame! — The Orlando Magic pulled Dwight Howard off the trading block after considering offers from at least four teams. It appears that if Howard wants to change uniforms, his only option may be to make like Superman and find a phone booth.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:11 AM | Comments (0)

December 15, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 15

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Jacksonville @ Atlanta (-10½)

The Falcons blanked the Panthers in the second half last week, erasing a 23-7 deficit to win 31-23. At 8-5, Atlanta is in line for a wild card playoff berth. The 4-9 Jaguars pay a Thursday night visit to the Georgia Dome.

"What did one angry Atlanta pimp say to the other?" Mike Smith said. "'Control your own 'destiny.' We plan to apply that to our destiny, as well. Ideally, we'd like the No. 5 seed, which would likely entail a trip to the home of the NFC East champ. And, just as any good Atlanta pimp would tell a client, we'll 'leave happy.'"

The Jaguars crushed the Buccaneers 41-14, powered by 4 touchdowns from Maurice Jones-Drew, who leads the NFL in rushing with 1,222 yards. Sunday's win was the first for interim head coach Mel Tucker.

"That's right," Tucker said. "The Mel Tucker has his first win as a head coach. And I've got Jones-Drew to thank for that. It may be time we tried the Broncos offensive model. If Denver can have that much success with a good running back playing quarterback, just imagine what we can with the best running back at QB."

Matt Ryan throws for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns, one a 53-yard strike to Julio Jones, the NFL's most-dangerous receiver, but only in games that he plays.

Atlanta wins, 27-10.

Dallas @ Tampa Bay (+6)

The Cowboys blew another late lead, letting a 12-point, fourth-quarter lead slip away in a 37-34 loss to the Giants last Sunday night. As was the case in Week 13's loss in Arizona, Dallas was cursed by poor clock management and a missed Dan Bailey field goal.

"My team could drive an owner to drink," Jerry Jones said. "And drink I will. I just won't be having a 'Bailey's on Ice.' Despite playing indoors the last two weeks, Bailey hasn't been unable to shake off the 'cold.'

"Of course, some of the blame falls on Jason Garrett. I've only got one bit of advice for Garrett: the clock is ticking."

The Bucs are reeling after losing their seventh straight, a 41-14 shellacking at the hands of the Jaguars. After a 4-2 start, Tampa is 4-9 and tied for last in the NFC South.

"Not only have we been 'South,'" Raheem Morris said, "we've gone south.

"It's very unsettling to have an interim coach staring at you from across the way. Unfortunately, I'm not talking about Jacksonville's Mel Tucker last Sunday. I'm talking about Monday morning's coaches meeting after a 41-14 loss. Any one of those guys could replace me.

Dallas wins, 30-17.

Cincinnati @ St. Louis (+7)

The Bengals suffered a devastating 20-19 loss at home to the Texans, losing on T.J. Yates' 6-yard touchdown pass to Kevin Walter with two seconds left. It was a damaging blow to Cincinnati's wildcard hopes, leaving them 7-6 and trailing the Jets for the final berth.

"I swore I was done with kissing," Marvin Lewis said, "after infamously smooching with Chad Ochocinco back in 2008. I spoke too soon, because after Sunday's loss, I can kiss the playoffs goodbye."

The Rams are 2-11 after losing 30-13 to the Seahawks on Monday night. The 13 points were slightly below St. Louis' season average of 14 per game.

"There was a time," Sam Bradford said, "when the Rams offense was known as the 'Greatest Show on Earth.' That was a long time ago, or, more fittingly, 'scores' ago."

Cincinnati wins, 27-6.

New Orleans @ Minnesota (+7)

The Saints picked up a huge road win at Tennessee last week, winning 22-7, and now face another road test in Minnesota. Drew Brees passed for 337 yards and 2 touchdowns, and joined Johnny Unitas as the only quarterbacks to throw for touchdowns in 40 straight games.

"It's good to be back indoors," Brees said, "although in Minnesota's Mall of America Stadium, there is a pretty good chance of snow, and an even better chance of winning. The Vikes are 1-5 there this year, so, it may be re-named 'Maul of America Stadium.'

The Vikings lost 34-28 in Detroit last week and are now 2-11, tied with the Rams for the worst record in the NFC. Quarterback Christian Ponder was benched after throwing his third interception, but will remain the starter if healthy.

"Brees presents an enormous challenge for us," Leslie Frazier said. "He can only be described as 'extraordinary.' Our two quarterbacks, Ponder and Joe Webb, can be described nearly identically: they're 'extra ordinary.'"

New Orleans wins, 37-24.

Washington @ NY Giants (-7)

The Redskins hung tough with the Patriots last week before succumbing 34-27 in Washington. The 4-9 Redskins head to MetLife Stadium to face the Giants, who are tied for the NFC East lead with a 7-6 record.

"What's more amazing?" Rex Grossman said. "The fact hat I had the gall to guarantee a division title back in September, or the fact that it took until now for it to be proved false? The fate of the NFC East is like many of my passes — up in the air, with its outcome unsure."

The Giants ended a 4-game losing streak in dramatic fashion last Sunday night, beating the Cowboys in Dallas 37-34. The win was preserved when Jason Pierre-Paul blocked Dan Bailey's 47-yard field goal as time expired. New York and Dallas are now tied atop the NFC East standings at 7-6.

"Who's down with 'J.P.P.?" Tom Coughlin asked. "All the homies, and me. For the first time in weeks, I'm able to admit I'm proud to be a Giant. That makes me 'haughty by nature.'

"Jason is one of the most versatile lineman I've coached. He can stop the run, rush the pass, and his debut record, a Christmas album of duets with Peter Frampton called 'Peter, Pierre-Paul, and Merry,' hits stores soon.

New York wins, 27-24.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (+6½)

The Titans dropped to 7-6 after their comeback fell short last week against the Saints in a 22-17 loss. Jake Locker, who relieved the injured Matt Hasselbeck, accounted for 2 touchdowns to lead the Tennessee charge.

"Matt injured himself trying to do too much," Locker said. "With that being said, Chris Johnson hasn't missed any time due to injury. An injury to Johnson, on top of an injury to Hasselbeck, would compound our problems. That would be an injury to a calf, and an injury to a 'cash cow.'"

The Colts are 0-13 after losing 24-10 in Baltimore last week, and, barring an incredible turnaround, seemed almost assured of the No. 1 in April's NFL draft.

"There's only one 'incredible turnaround' we're concerned with," Jim Caldwell said. "And that's Peyton Manning being able to look behind him. Next year, when he looks behind him, he'll likely see Andrew Luck. That makes us all feel better.

"But we won the AFC South with a 10-6 record last year. We're 0-13 now. I think we're done with turnarounds."

Tennessee wins, 30-16.

Seattle @ Chicago (-4)

The Bears lost their third game in a row, falling 13-10 in overtime in Denver after holding a 10-0 fourth quarter lead. Chicago is 7-6 and looks to end their slide against the visiting Seahawks.

"Tim Tebow is a good running back," said a disgruntled Brian Urlacher. "Some say I'm a good safety. But calling Tebow a running back is no insult. The Bears, along with several other teams, would kill for a running back of Tebow's quality at quarterback."

The Seahawks have won four of their last five after Monday night's 30-13 win over the Rams, a game broadcast to, yet probably not viewed by, a national audience. Marshawn Lynch rushed for 115 yards and a touchdown, his ninth straight game with a touchdown.

"This is a rematch of last year's divisional playoff game," Lynch said. "Amazingly, just as was the case then, we're one game under .500."

The Seahawks are still alive for a playoff berth, but they'll need help. The Bears may disagree, but help comes in the form of Caleb Hanie, who turns the ball over three times. Lynch rushes for 112 tough yards, and finds the end zone for the 10th-straight game.

Seattle wins, 16-13.

Green Bay @ Kansas City (-14)

The 13-0 Packers quest for perfection heads to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, where the 5-8 Chiefs hope to make history. If the Chiefs are to deny the Packers, they'll have to do so with a new coach. On Monday, Todd Haley was fired, and defensive coordinator Romeo Crenel was named interim coach.

"There was a huge amount of distance between Haley and general manager Scott Pioli," Crenel said. "Apparently, Pioli wanted more. There's a lot riding on the game. We're playing to avenge the Chiefs Super Bowl 1 loss to the Packers, and we're also playing for AFC pride. Not only are the Packers out of our league, they're out of our conference."

Green Bay tuned up for Sunday's road trip with a resounding 46-16 win over the Raiders last week. The Packers built a 31-0 halftime lead and have scored at least 45 points in each of their three wins this year over AFC West teams.

"To say we're shooting for 16-0 would be an understatement," Aaron Rodgers said. "We're aiming for nothing less than a 21-0 lead after one quarter in Kansas City."

In honor of Hank Stram, the Packers matriculate down the field often, and walk away with an honorary degree in butt-whipping and a 35-10 victory.

Carolina @ Houston (-6½)

The Texans clinched the AFC North title with a dramatic 20-19 win in Cincinnati, as rookie quarterback T.J. Yates found Kevin Walter for a 6-yard touchdown with two seconds left. Houston clinched the AFC South title, and their next goal is securing a first-round bye.

"There are Texas-sized victories," Arian Foster said, "and there are Texas-seized wins. That was both. I'm holding up my index finger with pride. Gary Kubiak's holding up two ringers with equal pride, symbolizing his first foray into double-digit wins.

"Right now, we're the AFC's top seed, ahead of the other 10-3 teams, the Patriots and the Ravens. That means if the seeds hold, we'll host the AFC title game, as the underdog."

The Panthers blew a 23-7 halftime lead to the visiting Falcons, and eventually fell 31-23 to fall to 4-9 in the NFC South, tied with the Bucs for last.

"I vowed to bring a division title to Carolina," Cam Newton said. "It appears the NFL schedule beat me to it. You may have read an article about me in ESPN the Magazine. Not many athletes can say they've been investigated by ESPN, and the NCAA. I have, and in both cases, you could say I was guilty of having a mouth that roars."

Yates wins the battle of Carolina quarterbacks, as the former Tar Heel completes only 12 passes, but completes 41 handoffs to his running backs. Houston racks up 214 yards on the ground, and the Texans win, 33-22.

Miami @ Buffalo (-1½)

The Bills were blown out 37-10 by the resurgent Chargers in San Diego last week, suffering their sixth straight defeat. After a 5-2 start, Buffalo is now 5-8 and headed for another disappointing finish to the season.

"I'm very concerned about George Wilson," Chan Gailey said. "Nothing's wrong with George, I just fear for my safety, because AFC head coaches are dropping like passes to Stevie Johnson. I'm guessing Bills fans are anxious for my success. I'm guessing they're even more anxious for my successor."

The Dolphins were overwhelmed 26-10 by the Eagles, who forced 3 turnovers and sacked Miami quarterbacks 9 times. Not to be outdone, the Miami front office sacked Tony Sparano on Sunday, ending his four-year tenure in Miami.

"I thought my job was safe," Tony Sparano said. "I was wrong. It's in fact safer. I'm the hottest coaching prospect in the NFL, among former NFL coaches in line for a college job next year.

"But good luck to the Dolphins in their search for a new head coach. I hear Bill Cowher is at the top of the lisp."

Gailey's job is safe, at least from the Dolphins hunt for a new coach. Ryan Fitzpatrick tosses 2 touchdown passes, and former Bill J.P. Losman, starting for the injured Matt Moore, again does nothing to impress the Bills.

Buffalo wins, 28-21.

Detroit @ Oakland (+1)

The Raiders spotted the Packers a 34-0 lead before eventually losing 46-16 in Green Bay last week. Oakland has lost two in a row and lost their hold on the AFC West. They are 7-6, one game behind the 8-5 Broncos.

"We outscored the Packers 16-12 down the stretch ," Hue Jackson said. "Thank goodness for small victories, because we haven't had a big one in weeks.'

The 8-5 Lions pulled out a 34-28 win over the Vikings last week, and will head to Oakland with Ndamukong Suh in tow. Suh returns after serving a two-game suspension for stomping the arm of Green Bay's Evan Deitrich-Smith on Thanksgiving.

"The story is no longer Suh's foot," Jim Schwartz said. "Now, it's Suh's back. Oakland is the perfect place for Suh to return from suspension. He can leave footprints in a place known for its fingerprints."

Just before kickoff, the O.co Coliseum crowd welcomes NASCAR icon Dick Trickle to midfield for the tossing of the ceremonial first yellow flag. The Raiders follow with a physically-dominant performance, rushing for 206 yards as a team an out-personal fouling the Lions three to one.

Oakland wins, 34-31.

Cleveland @ Arizona (-6½)

The Cardinals stunned the 49ers 21-19 last week, buoyed by John Skelton's 282 yards passing and 3 touchdowns in relief of Kevin Kolb, who was knocked out early with a head injury.

"The Browns did something," Ken Whisenhunt said, "that no other team, including the Cardinals, could do. They got one good year out of Derek Anderson. We're trying to get one good year out of Kolb, but injuries have limited his effectiveness. Maybe, one year, he'll be good."

The Browns lost to the Steelers 14-3 last Thursday to drop to 4-9 in the AFC North. Quarterback Colt McCoy suffered a concussion on a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit from James Harrison. Harrison was suspended one game by the NFL on Tuesday.

"What's more egregious?" McCoy said. "Harrison's 'KO,' or the doctor's 'OK?' I've seen better testing from Vince Young. The moral of this story is: never trust the Magic 8-Ball in concussion tests."

Arizona wins, 26-17.

NY Jets @ Philadelphia (-1)

The Eagles whipped the Dolphins 26-10 in Miami to improve to 5-8 and remain alive in the NFC East race. Philadelphia will likely need to win their remaining three games to have any chance at a post-season berth.

"Cue the Rocky theme," Michael Vick said. "Maybe that will drown out what has been nothing short of a rocky themed season.

"But a sweep is not out of the question. Andy Reid's quite handy with a broom, and often uses it to brush aside questions about his job security and dissension on the team."

The Jets got 4 touchdowns from Mark Sanchez in a decisive 37-10 win over the lowly Chiefs. New York is now 8-5 and leads the race for the AFC's final wildcard spot.

"If we're leading something," Sanchez said, "it's probably not the division.

"But I've stepped up my game since Rex Ryan made me believe I might be getting benched. Finally, he realized that I only respond to being challenged by Rex Ryan, and not good defenses."

It's hard to get excited over a win over the Dolphins. I'm not speaking for myself. I'm speaking for the Eagles. Philly comes out flat again, and the Jets pound Shonn Greene at the soft sport in the Eagles defense, the heart. Greene rushes for 110 yards, and Sanchez throws 2 touchdown passes.

Jets win, 27-21.

New England @ Denver (+5)

Tom Brady and the 10-3 Patriots head to Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium with all intention of ending the Broncos six-game winning streak and quieting the Tim Tebow-mania that has engulfed the nation.

"I agree with Charles Barkley," Brady said. "The Tebow madness must end. I also agree with Tebow, in that Barkley opining on football is like Barkley instructing someone's golf swing. Chuck is a basket case, on the golf course and in matters of football.

"I think Tebow is great for football. Believe it or not, we have a lot in common. I'm married to a supermodel; Tebow is a super model. My reputation was built on the 'Tuck Rule;' Tim's was built on the 'Golden Rule.' We're both great in fourth quarters. I just happen to be great in Super Bowl fourth quarters."

The Broncos won their sixth consecutive game, overcoming a 10-0 deficit to the Bears in the final 2:08 of regulation to win in overtime, 13-10.

"I want to beat Brady just as much as I want to vanquish the devil," Tebow said. "So I'm calling this game the 'Satanic Versus.'"

This time, the Broncos don't need a fourth quarter comeback. After the Pats jump out to an early 13-0 advantage, Denver needs a first quarter comeback. It doesn't happen.

New England wins, 31-14.

Baltimore @ San Diego (+1)

The Chargers are back in the hunt for the AFC West title, thanks to a 37-10 win over the Bills last week, and losses by both the Raiders and Broncos. The 6-7 Chargers trail the 8-5 Broncos by two games, and a loss would likely end their hopes, regardless of the outcome of the New England-Denver game.

"We can't rely on other teams to win," Norv Turner said, "unless they're playing us."

The Ravens handed the Colts their 13th defeat, winning 24-10. At 10-3, Baltimore leads the AFC North and currently holds the conference's No. 2 seed.

"Philip Rivers leads the NFL in interceptions," John Harbaugh said. "Joe Flacco leads the league in fumbles. I thin Norv Turner would agree with me in that this game will be won with defense, because no one's had to 'defend' their quarterbacks more than Norv and I."

Baltimore wins, 34-27.

Pittsburgh @ San Francisco (-1)

The Steelers and 49ers boast 11 Super Bowls between them, and there could very well be a 12th should the two teams meet in Super Bowl XLVI. Despite losing 20-19 last week in Arizona, San Fran still holds the NFC's No. 2 seed.

"After last week's Monday night Rams/Seahawks contest," Mike Tomlin said, "Monday's game will look like the Super Bowl."

San Francisco wins, 20-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:13 PM | Comments (0)

The Best and Worst College Incumbents

As the college football coaching carousel continues to spin, spin, spin, it's time to reflect on those that have not — yet — been sent off the reservation or have taken their playbook to a higher-profile school:

Here are the best coaches that have not been tabbed — yet — to a move to a more illustrious program.

Art Briles, Baylor

Remember when Baylor was the joke of college football? Seems like a distant memory now, doesn't it?

It's not just the Heisman-winning exploits of Robert Griffin, who would have gotten my vote if I had one. It's that Briles has taken a team that not only was the laughingstock of college football, but in a state that's very competitive in recruiting. Despite these handicaps, Briles has raised the Bears profile from 4 wins his first two seasons (still not bad by Baylor standards) to 7 last year and 9 this year, in perhaps the toughest top-to-bottom league in the country, where everyone but Kansas has shown themselves capable of beating anyone else.

Ron English, Eastern Michigan

There is perhaps no school in the country with the deck stacked against it more than EMU. Not only do the Eagles suffer from the lack of fan interest and the interminable struggle for funding that plague a lot of MAC schools, but English has an extra chip on his shoulder — he has to try to keep his team competitive and try to raise interest in the program in the same county as the University of Michigan. How do you suppose, say, Central Florida would do if it was in Gainesville?

But English, a Michigan man himself, has gotten the Eagles to their first six win season since 1995. It may not seem like much, but consider that three of their four MAC losses were by six points or less. Perhaps Eagles fans should be grateful they weren't a tad luckier — it's hard to imagine English still at the school if they had gone 7-1 in the MAC. The performance netted English MAC Coach of the Year honors.

Sonny Dykes, Louisiana Tech

Quick! Without looking, who won the WAC this year? It wasn't Fresno State. It wasn't Hawaii. Not Nevada, either. It was Louisiana Tech, a game clear of the field, for the first time in 10 years.

The man behind the success came in with a pretty impressive pedigree in assistant's stints at Texas Tech and Arizona, where he won the All-American Football Foundation's Mike Campbell Top Assistant Award. What he did when he took over is simply produce results on the field: an improvement from 4-8 to 5-7 in his first year, and a big jump to 8-4 this year. He's got a stern test in his bowl game — TCU — and if he comes out on the winning end, expect the phone to start ringing.

Dave Christensen, Wyoming

Unlike the other coaches on this list, Christensen's star hasn't risen steadily. After getting Wyoming to 7-6 in his first season at the helm in 2009, he took a big step back in 2010, going 3-9.

This year? 8-4, but more importantly, 5-2 in the Mountain West — their first season with so many conference victories since 1998.

Willie Taggart, Western Kentucky

This has got to be the most impressive in-season turnaround in recent college football history.

On October 1st, the Hilltoppers sat at 0-4, including a thumping at the hands of Division 1-AA Indiana State. They were widely regarded as the worst team in Division 1-A.

The rest of the season? 7-1 — and that "1" was a loss to LSU, a game that they were in until late in the third quarter. Now, WKU is widely regarded as the most snubbed team when bowl invitations were passed out, while 6-7 UCLA gets special dispensation from the NCAA to participate in a bowl. College football is just so fair, isn't it?

***

At the other end of the spectrum, we have the "you're still here?" category of coaches lucky to still have their jobs.

Skip Holtz, South Florida

The Big East is very, very bad, and if you are the worst of the bad (well, Syracuse was also 1-7, but they had a slightly better 2010 than USF), then that really doesn't speak well for the job you're doing. And it's a job that started with a lot of promise, on the heels of a bowl win and an opening day victory over Notre Dame that would, after beating up suspect competition, bring them to No. 14 in the polls. In fact, that Notre Dame victory would be one of just two wins over BCS schools. Holtz is the anti-Willie Taggart.

Frank Spaziani, Boston College

On the heels of 12 straight bowl seasons, wow did the Eagles lay a stinker this year. They started off 0-3 against the Murderer's Row of Northwestern, Central Florida, and Duke. Things did get slightly better as the year went on, but the problem is the only victory that's semi-respectable was at Miami. The other wins were against 1-AA UMass and two schools that had their own problems with ghastly results this year: Maryland and North Carolina State.

Mike Price, UTEP

I always enjoy watching UTEP play at home, because the Sun Bowl offers some beautiful views of the hilly, rugged surroundings.

Too bad I can't give equal praise to what I see on the field. Price was quite a "name" hire back in 2004, coming off monstrous success at Washington State, and he was even hired by mighty Alabama as their head coach before some transgressions with a prostitute ended his tenure in Tuscaloosa before it began. Price finished 8-4 in each of his first two seasons in charge of the Miners. They have zero winning records since then and have been completely overrun by Houston and Tulsa in Conference USA West. It's safe to say that the Miners breakthrough is not going to come under Price.

Robb Akey, Idaho

In five seasons at the helm, Akey hasn't produced a single winning record in conference, and this year, with the WAC heavyweights either already gone or with one foot out the door, the Vandals finished 1-6 in the conference, alone in the basement. They used to be hot rivals with Boise State and now they may never be on the same footing ever again (to be fair, this problem started well before Akey's tenure began). With three finishes of eighth or worse in five years in one of the worst conferences in Division 1-A, it's amazing he is still the head coach at Idaho.

Paul Rhoads, Iowa State

What annoys me about Rhoads is his entire resume, it seems, is predicated on upsets, and boy did he get a doozy of one this year over Oklahoma State. But the reason those are such upsets is because the Cyclones never reliably take care of business in their other games; Rhoades has yet to eclipse three conference wins during his tenure, and Iowa State hasn't had a record better than 7-5 since 2000.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:43 AM | Comments (0)

December 14, 2011

Polian a Disgrace to NFL's Spirit of Competition

One of my earliest memories as a pro football fan was the Kenneth Sims Bowl. It was played in Baltimore back on December 20, 1981 between the Colts and New England Patriots. As with any bowl, it was the final game of the season for these two teams, and it had a trophy: the loser would get Kenneth Sims, the two-time All-American defensive tackle from Texas. Sims was coming off a Lombardi Award-winning senior year, and was the consensus first pick in the 1982 NFL Draft.

I remember watching the game in front of the Christmas tree, full of anticipation not for Kenneth Sims, but for a New England victory. They were hard to come by since Chuck Fairbanks deserted the Patriots on the eve of the 1978 postseason, but the Colts had lost 14 straight games themselves going into that final Sunday afternoon. The game's linkage with Sims was like a scarlet letter; no one wanted to be the worst team in the NFL. Not even for Kenneth Sims. Both teams played to win. The lead changed four times and when it ended, Baltimore had the victory and New England had Kenneth Sims.

The moral is that once upon a time the Colts franchise had integrity.

For some football purists, the stitches of honor that bound one of the NFL's most endearing teams began to split a few years later when owner Robert Irsay snuck the Colts out of town under the cloak of darkness. He instructed movers to take fifteen different routes across the Maryland border to avoid police detection. Once in Indianapolis, the Colts scratched out a meager existence, oscillating for years somewhere between nine wins and the No. 1 draft pick. Then came another split in the stitches. Following consecutive 9-win seasons during Peyton Manning's sophomore and junior years at Tennessee, the Colts opened 1997 with 10 straight losses; Manning was wrapped up by Week 13.

But he alone was no guarantee to the Promised Land. Some extracurricular meddling was in order. After playoff losses to the Patriots ended Indy's 2003 and 2004 seasons, Vice Chairman Bill Polian exerted his considerable influence over the NFL's Competition Committee, getting passage of rules changes that bestowed national treasure privileges on wide receivers, of which the Colts had aplenty. Sprinkle a little fake crowd noise into the RCA Dome to hinder opposing receivers, and the pieces were falling into place. Eventually, Indy got past the Patriots and won a Super Bowl, which brings us to the modern-day Colts.

This is the team that took a giant knee against the New York Jets near the end of what could have been a perfect 2009 season, managing to screw America out of a long-overdue riddance of Mercury Morris from our collective conscience. Well, they're on their knees once again, with perfection in the air. Perfect imperfection. A loss to the Tennessee Titans this Sunday would drop the Colts to 0-14, only two years removed from the 14-0 mark they carried into that Jets game.

The carrot, of course, is Stanford's Andrew Luck.

Even if Manning hasn't demonstrated his football mortality this past year, and even if Polian decides to honor his future Hall of Fame quarterback's insistence he not draft a successor just yet, Luck is going to be the first pick of next April's draft, and the Colts are going to be the beneficiary one way or another. No other college player has greater claim to the top selection, along with the riches and fame it brings. If it's not the Colts who take Luck, it will be the team that gives them a boatload of future picks for the opportunity.

Luck — or his equivalent in compensation — may be fair compensation to an organization whose top star was shelved for an entire season. Then again, this is the NFL. You are supposed to be able to move on. That's what the Dolphins did in 1993 when they closed 5-6 after Dan Marino's Achilles tear. The Jets did it too, coming off an AFC Championship appearance only to see Vinny Testaverde tear his Achilles in the 1999 opener, yet rebounding from a 1-6 start to win 7 of their last 9 games. So too, did the Patriots, going 11-5 after Tom Brady went down with a knee injury in Week 1 of 2008. None of these teams mailed it in. They refused to lose the Kenneth Sims Bowl.

Then again, none were run by Bill Polian.

Polian has a long track record of self-servitude, accentuated by his position on the Competition Committee. But now he has the opportunity to do a greater good. He can exert some of that influence to install a draft lottery system that would prevent anyone else from desecrating the spirit of competition in the shameless manner he has.

Football doesn't need 1,000 ping pong balls to legislate competitive morals, but it does need a little more than the 50/50 proposition the NBA used from 1966 to 1984, whereby the worst teams from each conference flipped a coin. You know Polian would pull a two-headed quarter from his sleeve.

When David Robinson broke his foot before the 1996-97 NBA season, the San Antonio Spurs were left with a lottery season sandwiched between two years of 56-plus wins, yet they only had a 25% chance of landing Tim Duncan. Those are the best odds the Colts should be given, too. It gives hope to their desolate fans, yet is a sufficient disincentive to forego developing a backup quarterback, or insert a 68-year-old coach as defensive coordinator when he hasn't held the job in 28 years, and even then in the CFL.

A one-quarter Polian is better for football than a full Polian.

Once upon a time, the Colts did the right thing: they played for pride. Kenneth Sims went to New England and wound up a bust, posting only 17 sacks in 74 games over 8 seasons. But this franchise is no longer trustworthy enough to do the right thing, which is why the league has to. A lottery-based draft will give us another rule we can name after Polian, but this one will actually prove good for the NFL this time.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 5:58 PM | Comments (2)

December 13, 2011

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* If your team suffered season-ending injuries to the starting quarterback, the starting tight end, a running back who was drafted in the first round of every fantasy league, and a second-year safety who made the Pro Bowl as a rookie, what do you think your record would be? About 5-8?

* I seem to recall the league claiming that players were being monitored and wouldn't be allowed to return to the field following a concussion. That's obviously false.

* AFC teams mathematically eliminated from playoff contention: Colts, Browns, Dolphins, Jaguars, Bills.

* NFC teams mathematically eliminated from playoff contention: Rams, Vikings, Buccaneers, Panthers, Washington.

* A year ago, the Yankees overpaid Derek Jeter to keep him in pinstripes. A week ago, the Cardinals let Albert Pujols leave town rather than overpay him. Which team would you rather be a fan of?

***

We begin with a weekly tradition, the NFL Network "We Don't Fact-Check" Moment of the Week: Michael Irvin claiming that "outside of Green Bay and Chicago, no one has played more than [the Steelers and Browns]." Top 10 rivalries in history, by number of head-to-head games played (including postseason):

1. Bears/Packers, 183
2. Bears/Lions, 164
2. Packers/Lions, 164
4. Giants/Eagles, 160
5. Giants/Redskins, 159
6. Redskins/Eagles, 155
7. Giants/Cardinals, 125
8. Rams/49ers, 124
9. Redskins/Cardinals, 121
10. Steelers/Browns, 119

Steelers/Browns is a legendary rivalry — there's no need to enhance it with lies. The commenters on this station just randomly make things up. Routinely.

On to this week's power rankings, brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. Green Bay Packers [1] — Defense leads the NFL in interceptions (27). No one else has more than 18. Green Bay leads the league by 50%. The Packers have intercepted as many passes as Arizona, Denver, and Washington combined. Or the Bengals, Browns, Saints, and Vikings combined. Don't tell me this is a poor defense. Ryan Grant, starring at RB for the first time since 2009, rushed for 85 yards and 2 touchdowns against Oakland.

2. New Orleans Saints [3] — Poor red zone offense (three field goals under 30 yards, no red zone TDs) made the game uncomfortably close, but the real difference was third down percentage: the Saints went 11/19 (58%) and the Titans just 1/10 (10%). New Orleans has won five in a row, and I'm inclined to view the loss to the Rams as ancient history (and probably a fluke) at this point. Courtney Roby made 5 tackles on special teams (4 solo) against Tennessee.

3. Baltimore Ravens [4] — Some fans in Baltimore still resent the Colts for leaving almost 30 years ago, and Sunday's game was sweet revenge for those fans. The Ravens gained twice as many yards and twice as many first downs as Indianapolis, as the Colts sank to 0-13 and the Ravens moved within one game of clinching a playoff spot. Terrell Suggs had 3 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. That's his third game of the season with at least 3 sacks, giving him a career-high 13 with three weeks left to play.

4. New England Patriots [2] — Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in the NFL right now. His receiving numbers are phenomenal (1,088 yards, 15 TD), obviously. He gets open, has good hands, is a terror to bring down, and can actually block. Other than Tom Brady, Gronkowski is the Patriots' MVP. That style of offense doesn't work without him.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers [5] — Continue to overcome injuries, but check out this quote from Mike Mayock, "Troy Polamalu is so darn good at what he does [that] they use it against him, he turns and runs away from the seam route." Polamalu is one of a handful of players who are so deified by the media that apparently they are incapable of doing anything wrong, and never in the course of the season, at any time, make a bad play. What a load of crap. He jumped the wrong route and got beat. It's that simple. James Harrison dominated Cleveland's all-pro tackle Joe Thomas on Thursday. Harrison is expected to face a suspension from the league for tackling Colt McCoy.

6. Houston Texans [7] — Seventh straight win. Missing Andre Johnson and enduring Arian Foster's most disappointing performance of the season, the Texans clinched the first playoff appearance in franchise history with a last-minute 20-19 victory in Cincinnati. The Texans with T.J. Yates remind me a little of the Steelers in 2004. Not that Yates is Ben Roethlisberger, but you've got a rookie quarterback who's mostly making the plays he needs to, on a team with a lot of talent around him, especially a great defense. The '04 Steelers went 15-1 and lost in the AFC Championship Game. I could see 10-3 Houston getting that far if it holds on to a first-round bye.

7. Atlanta Falcons [8] — At 8-5, they control their own destiny in the NFC wild card race. Two of the remaining games, at home against the Jaguars and Buccaneers, look like easy wins, so Atlanta should get in. But overconfidence is a recipe for disaster — they'd better not take Jacksonville lightly. The early line for their Thursday night matchup is Atlanta -12½. Does that seem excessive to anyone else?

8. San Francisco 49ers [6] — Kicked three field goals under 30 yards, lost by two. Get a touchdown on any of those and you probably win. They had 1st-and-goal at the 4, settled for a 22-yard field goal. They had 2nd-and-3 at the 6, couldn't pick up the first down. They had 1st-and-goal at the 4 again, kicked a field goal with :10 left in the first half rather than take a shot into the end zone. Everything about their red zone decision-making says they didn't believe the Cardinals could beat them. Oops.

9. Denver Broncos [9] — Early in the fourth quarter, Vince Young Tim Tebow was 3-of-14, for 41 yards and an interception, with 3 sacks. He'd thrown 11 straight incompletions and the Broncos were in the middle of their seventh three-and-out. I don't care what kind of magic he's worked in the last 5:00, I wouldn't want him as my quarterback. Well, I mean, I would if I were a Jaguars fan, or Washington, or a couple other teams. But even then, not as the long term guy. I wouldn't want to build my team around him.

10. New York Jets [12] — Shonn Greene rushed for 129 yards, only the fourth regular-season 100-yard performance of his career, and added 58 receiving yards to power the Jets over Kansas City. Mark Sanchez posted more modest yardage (155 passing, 4 rushing), but made plays when it counted (4 TDs). And of course, the defense limited KC to 3.1 yards per carry and a 66.5 passer rating. The Jets are poised for a playoff wild card, but two of the last three are on the road, where the team is 2-4 this season. Even the home game is against the Giants, so you can't think there's much advantage there.

11. Tennessee Titans [11] — Backup quarterback Jake Locker outrushed Chris Johnson 36 yards to 23.

12. Seattle Seahawks [19] — In the last month, they're 4-1, with three blowout wins (combined 85-34) and a victory over the Ravens. Maybe I'm overestimating a team that's had two recent games against the Rams, but Seattle is playing pretty good defense, with a never-say-die running game and sound special teams. They don't have any really obvious holes, and there aren't many other teams you can say that about right now. It will be interesting to see how they do on the road against a desperate Bears team next week.

13. Arizona Cardinals [16] — Looked like the 2008-09 Cardinals who won back-to-back NFC West titles, with Larry Fitzgerald going off for 149 yards against San Francisco. Since the bye, they're 5-3 against a tough schedule that included the Ravens, Steelers, Cowboys, and Niners (twice). Calais Campbell (sack, 2 pass deflections) is quietly having a pretty impressive season.

14. New York Giants [18] — Following a legitimately impressive Giants comeback on Sunday night, Cris Collinsworth characteristically went overboard: "Nobody could do better than what Eli Manning has done in the clutch this season." Off the top of my head, I could name a half-dozen QBs to counter that argument, but let's pick one easy example: Aaron Rodgers. How do you define clutch? NFL.com offers situational stats, and one strikes me as particularly relevant: fourth quarter within 7. That's basically, what did the guy do at the end of close games?

Manning: 54/84, 807 yds, 8 TD, 2 INT, 117.5 rating
Rodgers: 24/32, 400 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT, 156.2 rating

Rodgers is way ahead, obviously, but that's a tiny sample. What if we expanded more generally to close games, anything within 7 points?

Manning: 166/271, 2134 yds, 12 TD, 5 INT, 93.0 rating
Rodgers: 92/132, 1259 yds, 13 TD, 1 INT, 129.6 rating

Actually, Manning's passer rating is higher when the margin is 8-14 (100.4) than when it's close, and higher still when the margin is 15+ (101.9) — he's actually been less efficient when the game is tight. Of course, there are other standards we could use to define the term clutch. Overall fourth quarter performance? Manning actually has a slightly better overall rating in the fourth quarter — if you include blowouts, because it's easy to complete passes against prevent defense. But Eli falls well short of Rodgers in the red zone, and near his own end zone, and in the last two minutes of a half, and almost any other situation you can think of. Manning really has played well in the clutch this season, but declaring him the best is absurd.

15. Dallas Cowboys [10] — The Chargers of the NFC, a talented team that seems to lose close games with unusual frequency. Let's review the Cowboys' six losses:

1) Week 1, 27-24 Jets: Cowboys had 14-point fourth quarter lead, then committed 4 turnovers, including three in the final 5:00.
2) Week 4, 34-30 Lions: Cowboys had 13-point fourth quarter lead, still led at two-minute warning.
3) Week 5, 20-16 Patriots: New England scored game-winning touchdown with :22 left.
4) Week 8, 34-7 Eagles: Blowout.
5) Week 13, 19-13 Cardinals: Head coach Jason Garrett ices his own kicker, Cowboys lose in overtime.
6) Week 14, 37-34 Giants: Cowboys led by 12 with 5:00 left.

There are five heart-breakers in there, games that the opponent didn't win until the final two minutes. Tight wins over San Francisco, Miami, and Washington (twice) confirm that the Cowboys aren't just a bunch of chokers, or at least not exclusively. But I don't think this is just balance — yeah, most teams win about half of their close games, and Dallas is 4/9 — the Cowboys have repeatedly given away games that they probably should have won, with horrendous coaching decisions or unforgivable turnovers or mind-boggling defensive breakdowns, or some combination. Does that mean this team is better than its record? Probably, I guess, but doesn't a truly great team manage to hold the lead most of the time, win the ones it should? Felix Jones played well this week, but it can't be good news that DeMarco Murray fractured his ankle in the loss.

16. Detroit Lions [14] — Up 21-0 in the first quarter, 31-14 at halftime, and 34-21 as late as the fourth quarter, they almost gave the game away, finally winning with the help of what appeared to be a facemask penalty missed by the officials. My favorite stat from the game: rushing first downs. Minnesota 17, Detroit 1. When's the last time a team won with 16 fewer rushing first downs than its opponent?

17. Cincinnati Bengals [13] — In Week 7, I noted that the statistically elite defense, then 4th in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed, hadn't really played any good offenses. Today, I think the team's stats (12th in points allowed and 7th in yards) more accurately reflect the talent here: a defense that is good, but not exceptional.

18. San Diego Chargers [21] — Back-to-back games scoring over 30 points and winning by more than 20. If they win two of the last three and finish 8-8, will that save Norv Turner's job? Maybe. With so many other teams firing coaches, how many better choices will be available? The Chargers are 6-3 when Shaun Phillips plays. They went 0-4 without him.

19. Philadelphia Eagles [22] — Scored 24 points in the second quarter, 2 points in the other 50 minutes combined. Michael Vick did not play particularly well in his first game back from injury (69.9 passer rating, 9 rush yards), but the defense came away with 9 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, an interception, a safety, and 3 stops on fourth down. Trent Cole and Jason Babin finished with 3 sacks apiece.

20. Miami Dolphins [17] — I hate firing coaches in the middle of the season What was so important about getting rid of Tony Sparano that it couldn't wait three weeks? The Dolphins have won four of their last six games, outscoring opponents 149-80 during that span. How do you promise you're going to keep the guy when he starts 0-7, then can him when the team is on a roll?

21. Chicago Bears [15] — Marion Barber has a lot of people trying to make him feel better right now, so I'm going to go the opposite direction. Barber personally cost the Bears a game that could easily be the difference in whether or not they make the playoffs. Yeah, yeah, it's a team loss. Only one dude ran out of bounds when they were trying to milk the clock, then fumbled in overtime to set up the Broncos' game-winning field goal. The Bears are 0-3 without Jay Cutler.

22. Carolina Panthers [24] — Squandered a 23-7 halftime lead, the second straight loss in which the team led by double-digits after two quarters. As many things as Cam Newton has done right this season, I believe it's been a real mistake not to invest more in the running game. Both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart average about five yards a carry, yet they only average 18.5 attempts per game, combined. Only the Buccaneers have fewer carries by running backs this season.

23. Oakland Raiders [20] — Carson Palmer has shown us moments of brilliance this year, but Sunday was his third game of the season with three or more interceptions. Palmer's passer rating has been below 80 in five of his seven appearances, and overall he's at 70.8. That's 30th in the NFL, between Rex Grossman (71.8) and Curtis Painter (66.6). The Raiders gave up a fortune to get Palmer, but if I were an Oakland fan, I'd want to see an open competition between Jason Campbell and Palmer in the 2012 preseason.

24. Buffalo Bills [23] — Traded Marshawn Lynch for fourth- and fifth-round draft picks. Kept C.J. Spiller.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars [29] — Prior to this week, Jacksonville's highest-scoring games were 20, 17, and 16. They scored more points in the second quarter against Tampa (28) than in any whole game, eventually more than doubling (41) their previous high. Maurice Jones-Drew, who scored 4 TDs in Week 14, is on pace for 341 rushes this season, far more than any other season in his career (312, 2009). Why did he get 7 carries when the Jags were up by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter? Why was he still taking handoffs with a 21-point lead and under 3:00 remaining?

Wait, I've got it figured out. Mel Tucker has MJD in fantasy, and Week 14 is the playoffs, dog. He needed that fourth touchdown to be sure his team (Tucker's Troopers) advanced. I mean, there's no other explanation for running your franchise RB into the ground when the outcome is clearly decided.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [25] — Started 3-1, then lost to San Francisco by 45, foreshadowing a losing skid that now stands at seven games. Last season, Josh Freeman threw just 6 interceptions, with a sterling 1.3% INT percentage. This year, he's already thrown three times as many picks: 18 INTs, 4.1%.

27. Washington Redskins [27] — They haven't quit, but there are just way too many mistakes. Rex Grossman holding the ball for an hour in his own end zone. Graham Gano kicking off out of bounds. DeAngelo Hall literally standing and watching Gronkowski break tackles. Santana Moss shoveling a pass to Jerod Mayo for the final interception. It's just this endless litany of errors.

28. Cleveland Browns [30] — I believe Seneca Wallace is the best quarterback on the Browns' roster, and I've been a vocal advocate for taking concussions more seriously, so of course I don't think Colt McCoy should have gone back in. But what I really want to talk about is the play-calling. The announcers questioned Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin for going for a touchdown on 4th-and-goal. But no one questioned Pat Shurmur for settling for a field goal in the same situation. When you're playing a better team, you need to take some chances, and you have to make your opportunities count. If the Browns had scored a touchdown there, it might be 7-7 in the fourth quarter, and instead of forcing a throw to the end zone, McCoy plays it safe and the Browns kick a go-ahead field goal with 3:00 left.

Since 2010, Wallace's passer rating with Cleveland is 89.1 (about the same as Matt Ryan). McCoy's is 74.5 (about the same as Christian Ponder). That's with the same offensive line, same receivers.

29. Kansas City Chiefs [26] — Fired head coach Todd Haley after less than three seasons. Haley took over a team that was 2-14, doubled that win total in his first year, and led the team to a division title in his second season. The Chiefs were 5-8 this year, including some embarrassing losses, but they were coming off an upset win against Chicago and have dealt with devastating injuries to key players all season. Maybe there's some behind-the-scenes reason Haley had to go, but from a football standpoint, this seems awfully hasty. Defensive coordinator and former Browns HC Romeo Crennel replaces Haley for the final three weeks.

30. Minnesota Vikings [28] — Everyone's talking about Joe Webb. I want to talk about Jared Allen, who just had his fifth multi-sack game of the season. Allen leads the NFL with 17.5 sacks, already a career-high, and is on pace to become the first player with more than 20 sacks in a season since Michael Strahan in 2001. Allen also has 4 forced fumbles, 4 fumble recoveries, an interception, and a safety.

31. St. Louis Rams [31] — As horrendous as this team is, how stunning is it that they beat the Saints in Week 8?

32. Indianapolis Colts [32] — Another glorious fourth-quarter comeback. After gaining 53 yards and 3 points in the first three quarters, the Colts exploded for 101 yards and a touchdown in the final 15:00. From 1998-2010 (the Peyton Manning years), the Colts averaged 26.6 points per game, 19.4 when he was a rookie and at least 21.8 every year since. This season, that average is 14.2. Manning can't really be worth two touchdowns a game, can he?

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:12 PM | Comments (0)

December 12, 2011

Brawling and Basketball Don't Mix

The brawl that took place immediately after the Xavier vs. Cincinnati game last Saturday was not unique. It was simply another glaring example of athletes in popular sports lacking integrity, emotional stability, and common sense.

When I first saw the fight, I think most of my disappointment was directed at the Bearcats. Then I heard the Xavier press conference and the disappointment spread quickly to the Musketeers.

When I was a younger fan, I would see sports brawls on occasion and I assumed I just didn't understand the adult world. Maybe there were rules I didn't know, written or unwritten, about when such fighting was justifiable.

Now, I'm older than every college athlete that appears on TV and I've come to the conclusion that it's not me who doesn't understand: it is the athletes who are participating in the fights who don't understand. It's time that they understood.

Xavier guard Tu Holloway's comments after the game have received scrutiny as he said Xavier had "a whole bunch of gangsters" in the locker room. While this comment is disappointing and unhelpful, his lead line bothers me a lot more. Holloway said, "Yeah, you know, that's what you're going to see from Xavier and Cincinnati."

No, Mr. Holloway. No. When I see Xavier and Cincinnati play in a college basketball game, I want to see a college basketball game. And that's what everybody needs to see when Xavier plays Cincinnati or any other team ever again. College basketball is college basketball. The same is true of every other sport where fighting is against the rules and not a part of the sport.

Fighting has become far too accepted in the sports world and the excuse given to athletes is that "[insert sport here] is an emotional game" or "emotions run high" or something similar.

I don't care. I repeat: I don't care. I don't care at all that emotions run high is sports. Human beings are emotional people and athletes aren't the only people who have jobs or college commitments that are emotional or stressful.

I'm tired of sports getting a pass. I'm tired of high emotions being a valid excuse for inappropriate behavior. It isn't a valid excuse. A lawyer who punches another lawyer or a judge will be charged assault. A patient who learns he or she has cancer isn't allowed to punch the doctor who tells them. McDonald's employees are not allowed to punch customers who yell at them because their cheeseburger has onions and no tomatoes. You are not allowed to punch a co-worker because they stole your leftover pizza from the office fridge. All of that is unacceptable. All of those examples would likely lead to criminal charges, loss of job, and significant loss of reputation.

In sports, however, none of those things have been happening. (Although, a prosecutor is looking into pressing charges at the moment with the Xavier and Cincinnati fight.) Athletes caught in one fight usually do not encounter problems with their reputations so long as they handle the press conference well and don't do it again.

I believe in forgiveness and I believe in second chances, but the culture of sports and its allowance of fighting as the result of being "emotional" is out of control. It needs to be reversed. It cannot continue. College and professional basketball courts, football fields, and baseball diamonds are not playgrounds for elementary school recess. Educators around the country and throughout the world are working to rid their schools of bullying and fighting, letting children know that such behavior is not acceptable. That message becomes diluted with every sports brawl that occurs. If those behaviors are unacceptable for kids, how can they possibly be acceptable for any adult?

Tu Holloway also said, "We're grown men over here." No, Mr. Holloway. No, you are not. Grown men do not act like that. A grown man is not defined by his ability to fight. Grown men and all human beings are defined by their choices and the impact those choices have on society. Well-adjusted adults have the ability to realize what things are important in life and to make choices that showcase what is important.

Mr. Holloway, you have acted like a child. No, that's an insult to children. You have acted as though your actions have no effect on anyone in the entire world. Your choices and your comments highlighted a fight you helped to start and escalate instead of the basketball game you helped to win. What was that fight about? A disrespectful comment? An insult or two given through trash talk?

The appropriate response to such disrespect is not violence. It is not even confrontation. The appropriate response is another piece of what Holloway said in the post-game press conference: "You let your play on the court talk for you."

Yes! For the love of all that is sacred, winning the game is how you respond to disrespect! Xavier did that. They won the game in convincing fashion, but their performance during the game has been completely muffled by its antics after the game and their immature comments in the press conference. In sports, if you want to prove somebody wrong, the only way to do that is to win and to do so with dignity and integrity.

Tu Holloway did not let his play on the court speak for him. He helped bring about a brawl that is an embarrassment to both universities and to the NCAA as a whole.

Sports-loving children and teenagers around the country saw this fight. Some heard Holloway's comments after the game and I hope they all have the good sense to say, "What an idiot." That's what Tu Holloway should have said about himself, his teammates, and his opponents.

I would have liked to hear the following: "Those actions were stupid. That was not basketball. I'm ashamed that I was a part of such an inappropriate display. I expect more out of myself, my teammates, and my opponents. We should have let our actions on the court speak for us."

People have complained that the suspensions issued were not long enough, the longest being six games. In general, I agree. That being said, Cincinnati head coach Mick Cronin's comments after the game gave me hope that this situation will be dealt with well on Cincinnati's side.

Yet the suspensions are in line with the current rules. I think the rules could be rewritten, but such a rewriting should occur in an offseason and not as a reaction to any one specific event.

College basketball's current rule is that throwing a punch equals a minimum one game suspension if the officials deem it to be a fight. Two fights in one season means the player is disqualified for the season.

I think a one-game minimum is rather soft for a first offense. I think five games for a first offense is more reasonable as a minimum with an option for more punishment if it is deemed necessary. I also think the NCAA and its schools need to seriously think about stripping scholarships for those involved in fights. If a player were charged with and convicted of assault in the off-season, would they retain their scholarship? I doubt it. Colleges and universities have a responsibility to teach their student athletes discipline. Many are currently showing they are failing in that responsibility.

Fighting after a basketball game is as ridiculous as a boxer bringing a basketball to the ring and trying to spin it on one of his gloves. It makes no sense. It has no place. It adds nothing to the sport. It only detracts from it. Other sports need to think about intensifying their rules as well because this is not a basketball alone problem, nor is this a college only problem.

In the end, athletes who have the good fortune to appear on television because of their athletic talents need to do a far better job of understanding the reach of their comments and actions. I respect an athlete's private life and I'm not asking anyone to be perfect, but they are going to remain role models for children and teenagers, as long as sports are televised, whether they like it or not, and whether society likes it or not. More athletes need to choose to be good role models. And being a bad role model on live television requires stricter punishments.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 6:33 PM | Comments (0)

Sizing Up the BCS Buffet Table

College football needs a playoff system.

There. Now that I've gotten that obligatory statement out of the way, one that you're all tired of hearing by now, even if you do wholeheartedly agree with it, we can move on to what is.

Without said playoff, we have once again, what amounts to a large buffet spread of bowl games, none of which get any of their teams closer to the championship — well, not this year's championship, anyway — and the championship game. These bowl games generally only become notable or memorable in one of two cases: 1) a team snubbed from the title game like Oklahoma State is involved or 2) the game has a wild, dramatic finish, even if it didn't win them anything other than that bowl game.

Also, if a future star ends up in performing well in said game, it will vastly improve its replay value on ESPN Classic, but that won't begin to happen until the game has aged some five years.

Otherwise, much of the holiday bowl games are simply glorified consolation games to make the winning team feel good about something to end their season. This is not exactly something America can really sink its hyper-competitive teeth into. At best, they can be looked at as satisfying hypothetical questions of who would win and what would happen if this top team played that top team. Yet in the end, this decides and satisfies nothing more than our curiosity.

So since I mentioned Oklahoma State, they will be playing in the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl on January 2 against Stanford. This creates a double-whammy of interest as the team supposedly snubbed from the title game does battle with QB Andrew Luck who was supposedly snubbed from the Heisman Trophy. Therefore, both teams should have major chips on their shoulders and doubters who need to be proven wrong. Not to mention Luck will undoubtedly have some scouts from the 0-13 Indianapolis Colts in attendance at that one to see if he continues to be No. 1 pick worthy.

So that makes one non-title game bowl game that will be worth watching. Any others have mass appeal outside of the college football diehard?

Well, let's see, Boise State is usually fun to watch, and a great sentimental favorite of the anti-establishment to crash the party. Ranked No. 7 this year, BSU lost their only game to TCU in the exact same fashion as last year. A 39-yard field goal from freshman kicker Dan Goodale that would have won the Broncos the game may have even taken them as far as the title game had it gone through the uprights accounted for their only loss of the season. Instead, Boise State battles unranked 6-6 Arizona State on December 22 in the MAACO Bowl. So much for that one. Looks like its all the kicker's fault again.

So let's just move on the title matchup itself. Many groaned when realizing that LSU vs. Alabama was set in stone for a couple of reasons. No. 3 ranked Oklahoma State was the fun choice to root for; they are not a traditional powerhouse team, they are this year's BCS crasher to come up just short once again. The denial of a title game for OSU naturally fires up more vain cries for a playoff in college football that will once again fall on deaf ears.

Because every other team sport we follow does have playoffs, it is only natural to think in terms of playoff eliminations, and so many college football fans have used the argument that Alabama already had their shot at LSU and they lost, why should they be given another chance? After all, Oklahoma State won their conference championship, while Alabama was not even selected to play in theirs. Instantly, the mentality is one of playoff advancement, despite being in a system that is not defined by playoff advancement.

The reason Alabama was not in the SEC title game was they are in the SEC West, just as LSU is. Naturally, LSU was the SEC West representative after defeating Alabama earlier in the season in their 9-6 overtime matchup (more on that later). However, this has nothing to do with the computer rankings involved with the BCS. They weight the toughness of the conferences, in which the SEC is the strongest overall, and they factor in strength of schedule and particularly strength of losses. While both Alabama and Oklahoma State defeated four ranked teams on their way to their not-so-identical 11-1 records, OSU had their one loss to unranked Iowa State, while the Crimson Tide lost their one game to the top-ranked team in the nation.

The simple logic here is if you had as tough a schedule in as tough a conference as anyone, and you lost only one game all year to the team that was already ranked No. 1, and it was by a mere 3 points in overtime, don't you still deserve to be ranked No. 2? The answer is yes, and that is how we got here.

That game, played on Saturday, November 5 of this year, is the other reason many were unhappy with the title matchup. There were no touchdowns, not even in the shortened fields of overtime. Fittingly, the defenses of both teams are also ranked No. 1 and 2 in the nation in points allowed, and this was on display that day. The heavily anticipated game was criticized as a snooze-fest for those holding their breath for big plays and offensive drives. Now the fear is we will have another 9-6 game for the title.

Certainly, though, these are not inept offenses, as both teams regularly reach 30 and 40+ points in their games, even against highly-ranked opponents. As the saying goes, "a great throw beats great coverage." At some point, even the top defenses have to have breakdowns when going against potent enough offenses. Plus, football is simply a chaotic game; there are too many variables for the same scenario to repeat itself verbatim just because the same two teams play each other a second time. The odds of this title game being the same type of no-touchdown punt-fest are remote.

My case in point for this is from the NFL, but still valid. The 2007 Giants and Patriots famously met up in Week 17 and battled to a wild 38-35 shootout with drives and touchdowns going up and down the field at a hectic pace. The rematch in Super Bowl XLII was nothing of the sort, as the Giants overcame the Pats, 17-14, in a much uglier defensive struggle that was still 7-3 Patriots after three quarters. The same two teams met twice and played two completely different kinds of ballgames. Whose to say that can't happen with LSU and 'Bama, as well? After all, even a 20-17 type-score is acceptable and entertaining for a title game.

This might not be the year the system gets a playoff, and next year might not be, either. Yet there have been much bigger messes made by the BCS than this. Rather than file the usual complaints, I just suggest you sit back, take whatever you can out of the many smaller bowl game dishes, and enjoy the main course of LSU and Alabama for what it is and what it can be. Happy holiday bowling, everybody.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 4:04 PM | Comments (0)

December 11, 2011

Veterans Committee Should Be Ashamed

When former Major League Baseball commissioner A. Bartlett Giamatti decided to ban Pete Rose from baseball for gambling, he set the precedent that character was — in some way — a prerequisite for Hall of Fame enshrinement. Many people have since pointed out the irony in the inclusion of many other morally questionable players, something I call the Ty Cobb Exception. However, the true irony in the MLB's election process is not that some "classless" players have slipped through the cracks and into bronze molds, but rather that many of the men voting have since proven to be some of the worst examples of high character.

Ron Santo was officially inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame on December 5, 2011. A man of the absolute highest morality and class, his HOF merits had been debated for the past three decades by fans inside and out of Chicago. A career .277 hitter, Santo belted 342 home runs in the Era of the Pitcher. His average 162 game season projects to 24 home runs and 96 RBI — numbers that any Steroid Era general manager would toss 80 million dollars at. He earned five Gold Gloves and made nine all-star appearances.

Simply put: he was a great baseball player.

Granted, an argument could conceivably be waged that on numbers alone he may not have transcended "great" into the "legendary" status that separates HOFers from all-stars. However, when looking beyond the hard and fast data, it becomes clear that Santo's exclusion from the Hall should be viewed as indictment to the voters — most notably the laughable Veterans' Committee.

First, let me recap how the HOF induction process works for those of you that may be unfamiliar. A retired player becomes eligible for induction once he has been out of the game for five years. Once the eligibility activates, the player has the next 15 years to be voted in by a panel of sportswriters — whose votes are released to the public. If a player is named on 75% or more of the voter ballots, he's in. If he fails to garner even 5% of a vote, he is disqualified from future elections. Should a player fall somewhere in between those marks for 15 years, his only hope is to be voted in by a panel of ex-players who are currently in the HOF, known informally as the Veterans' Committee.

As of 2011, a slew of changes have revamped the Veterans' Committee process. However, for the purposes of looking at Santo's plight, the previous process is more relevant, seeing as how it was these men who aided and abetted the tragedy that left Ronnie on the outside looking in.

Santo did not garner enough support during his initial 15 years on the ballot, so his judgment was left to this glorified club of retirees. Sadly, the former members of the Veterans' Committee did not view the Hall as a museum of baseball history, but rather some sort of secret fraternity into which they could freely (and randomly) select their friends. They passed up Ron Santo for nearly two complete decades, voting him down every other year since 1993.

In the meantime, while Santo's on-field credentials did not worsen, his off-field merits made his exclusion all-the-more glaring. The most notable accomplishments for Santo were charity efforts he immersed himself in for diabetes research. He played his entire MLB career with type 1 diabetes during an era when little was known about the debilitating condition. Not only did he refrain from using his circumstances as an excuse, he wanted the diagnosis to be kept secret.

"I'd just as soon have [the doctor] keep it to himself," Santo was quoted as saying in an interview. "I wanted to prove that I could play baseball with diabetes."

He served as an inspiration to many subsequent athletes and professionals who learned that diabetes was not a death sentence.

Additionally, he became one of the most memorable — though not the most articulate — broadcasters in the history of one of baseball's oldest franchises. He served as the color man for Cubs broadcasts on WGN Radio from 1990 until his death in 2010. Listening to Santo was an absolute treat — nobody expressed the agony of being a Cubs fan in quite the same way³. He was the self-proclaimed "biggest Cubs fan in the world" — and nobody ever disputed this as anything other than fact.

Lastly, he was notoriously one of the kindest men associated with baseball that a fan could ever meet. Speaking personally, I remember meeting Ron Santo in 1993 when I was a boy of eight. We were at the Sheraton East Hotel in San Diego, California and several of the Cubs players, coaches, and broadcasters were returning from Jack Murphy Stadium after a night game. Upon seeing Harry Caray eating dinner at a table next to Ryne Sandberg, I begged my father to interrupt the two of them for autographs. Instead, my dad walked right over to a man standing alone in the front lobby.

What proceeded from there were five minutes of the most colorful, amusing, and passionate conversation I've ever witnessed. My dad reminisced about 1969's collapse and, unlike most professional athletes who dole out apathetic, contrived, euphemistic bullshit, Santo sounded like a man whose brother had passed away. Those losses ate away at him, even after nearly a quarter century.

When it was over, he shook the hands of my dad, my brother, and me, signed our baseball, and left me with the indelible impression that can only stem from one-of-a-kind charisma. He was that kind of ambassador to the game.

So apart from being a stellar player, Santo was a philanthropist, a broadcaster, and an ambassador to the game. The only quality that changed between his 2009 "no" vote and his 2011 induction was his living status. Ron Santo died on December 3, 2010.

My question to the Veterans Committee is this: how were his credentials not good enough 20 years ago — or even two years ago — but suddenly are? How does death qualify someone more for the HOF?

Santo, a man who wore his heart on his sleeve, never could hide the pain of rejection each year he was denied. A documentary entitled This Old Cub painted the picture of a man who understood the significance of being elected, truly felt he deserved it, and desperately wanted it. After living a life filled with pain and struggle — including fighting juvenile diabetes throughout his adulthood, having both legs amputated due to his condition, and ultimately succumbing to bladder cancer — the least that the voters could have done was to realize that, if his induction is inevitable, they might as well allow a fellow human being to enjoy the achievement.

He once was hilariously quoted as saying, "I don't want to be elected post-humorously." The true humor of the statement can only be appreciated by those familiar with Santo — mainly because he misspoke with such conviction that you did not care that he made a mistake.

The cowards of the Veterans Committee should be humiliated that they deprived one of baseball's great men the opportunity to relish his legacy. Hiding behind their confidential votes, many argued that Santo lobbied too hard for his own induction. Why should that even matter? He wasn't the one voting. Did it make voters feel better to leave him out? Who knows. What is clear is that enough of the voters lacked the human decency to make their selections objectively and instead seemed to bask in the glory of robbing a deserving peer of joy.

I'm glad that Ron Santo is a HOFer. He has deserved it for a long time and he certainly still deserves it. In an era when the biggest debate is over which steroid users should make the Hall5, it certainly wouldn't have done baseball any harm to give a competitor who succeeded with a performance inhibitor — rather than performance enhancers — his due.

If character was the only prerequisite for entrance into the Hall of Fame, then Ron Santo would have been a first-ballot inductee. His exclusion, however, seems to be proof that the "character" argument is intended for convenience rather than anything else. Part of me hopes whoever gives Santo's induction speech makes the voters who denied him feel the shame they deserve for their arrogant part in this debacle. But he or she will not. He or she will relish the moment, fawn over a well-deserved man, and bring tears to the eyes of those in attendance.

Just as classy as — though undoubtedly more eloquently than — Santo himself would have done.

Posted by Louie Centanni at 6:47 PM | Comments (0)

The Davis World Cup?

Rumors have been circulating for a while now. Among the fans. Among the players. The Davis Cup has lost meaning! The format is redundant, even irrelevant in today's world. The tennis world is calling out for change!

But are they? Really?

It seems that this opinion is only really held by the teams that aren't doing all that well. It is one of the oldest tennis tournaments in the world, and certainly the most prestigious team tournament, and it is a cup every country wants to win — even if their chances are no more than aspirational.

With that beside, small countries — ones who have little chance of winning, or progressing very far at all — can still benefit from these home-and-away proceedings. A host country will take money from their matches, and this can be all-important for countries with some fledging talent. It is money that can be put back into training up their players.

On the flip side, however, there are plenty of negatives to be seen.

Is it even really an event? For a team that reaches the final, they will have played four matches, split over the course of a year, beginning in February and ending in late November. And if a team is beaten in their first match, they have to wait until July to play again, and then no more games again until the following year.

And because it is played in different countries all year round, there is no base of supporters. People will support their country, and few will travel abroad to see an away match. What's more, who has the money to see more than one away match, should their country do well? For example, if you were from Switzerland, you wouldn't really want to go to Australia for one away match, over one weekend, then return home, only to have to fly out to perhaps Argentina a few months later, again, for just one weekend. It's impractical.

Players don't want such a prestigious tournament to just go away, for it to be scrapped. But for them, it is becoming more of a hassle. The July matches come the week after Wimbledon, and if a player had a good run, they are simply going to be too tired to play two more best-of-five matches, especially if the competition could be quite tough.

Why not revitalize the tournament? Give it another format.

There are already other team tournaments which work very well, and they do embody the team spirit quite well. The Dusseldorf Team Championships, for example, or the Hopman Cup in Perth?

Why not turn the Davis Cup into a World Cup?

It could retain its prestigious title, but the format could be revised, to get the most out of it. Held every two years, on non-Olympic years, the new Davis World Cup could be hosted by a different country each time, rotating around the continents, so as to reduce the amount of traveling fans would have to do. There would be none of this Group 1 or Group 2 nonsense; there would be a group stage, followed by quarterfinals, semifinals, and a final.

The current tennis calendar is pretty packed, but with a little shuffling, I am sure it could all be arranged. After all, things get shuffled to allow the Olympics a place.

Something can be learned from the other team events already around, in that there are only three sets played. However, what is the Davis Cup without its five set format? Then why aren't the formats blended? Three sets for the group stages, and five sets for the knockout stages.

And in spite of the Davis Cup calling itself a team event, it could really be more-so. In 2009, the Czech Republic reached the final using just two players: Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek, who played singles on Friday and Sunday, and teamed up for the doubles on the Saturday.

They had an astonishing record ... until they met Spain in the Final, where both Berdych and Stepanek lost their opening singles rubbers and the doubles rubber to lose the match. The other two Czechs on the team, who had not been given a chance to play all year, were allowed to play the "dead" rubbers. They lost these, also.

To eradicate this, there could be again fiver rubbers, but with two doubles matches, and three singles, and no player would be allowed to play more than one singles or doubles match. This would allow perhaps some of the weaker players to come out and play for their country on a big stage and show their worth. They wouldn't be overshadowed or left out because their country already has two top-50 players.

The tennis world would come together; fans flocking from all over the globe, not just for their favorite players, but also to support their country, in what has the potential to become the greatest tennis tournament on earth.

There are no official talks as yet as to how the tournament might be improved, but it is on the minds of many a fan, and many a player. The tournament itself has so much history and prestige that it cannot be dropped, but the current format has simply become redundant. Changes are needed, but when they will come, we will not know.

Posted by Angus Saul at 11:47 AM | Comments (2)

December 10, 2011

Revenge of the Nerds

Jock schools, be afraid. Be very afraid.

Yeah, so Butler was a two-year wonder. The little school that could. You felt a soft spot for them, but now it's time for the big boys to dominate again, right? Wrong.

Sure, you were used to Duke running the show in college basketball. Duke has a storied tradition and the legendary Coach K. They're a private school with great academics, but they had honorary jock status. But Harvard? Baylor? They're not supposed to be basketball powers, right?

It's official. America's small, private colleges are starting to take the hoops world by storm.

Harvard's loss to UConn didn't diminish the early respect bestowed upon them; rather, it only added to it. Harvard went into Storrs and played tough, gritty basketball. The loss to the defending national champions showed simply that Harvard is not going away anytime soon. What Tommy Amaker has done in building the Crimson program is nothing but remarkable. Harvard became the first Ivy League school to be ranked in the AP top 25, and despite losing to UConn, a win over Boston University this weekend should keep Harvard in the national discussion.

The Crimson win without having a dominant superstar. Rather, Amaker plays his bench smart and the team plays a tough defensive game, forcing a team to either fight through or beat themselves. Don't expect a last second Princeton shot in a playoff game to take down Harvard's dream of their first NCAA tournament berth this year.

As for Baylor, the rise to national prominence is recognition of just how good a coach Scott Drew is. He came to Waco during one of their darkest hours and has breathed new life into the Bears program that has never been seen before. Baylor has been in cruise control all season so far, never being threatened en route to a 7-0 start. While it might take a lot to pry him away from Baylor, Scott Drew could be the next superstar of basketball coaches and could demand a huge salary in the upcoming future.

What makes this team especially scary is their depth. Drew plays a 10-man rotation that is fast, aggressive and can shoot their way from any point on the court. Perry Jones III (aka PJ3) has All-American potential, while Quincy Acy brings veteran leadership and toughness to the Bear attack. Beating the Bears requires a perfect storm of sorts. First, teams have to slow the pace way down and have a point guard that handles the ball well. Second, you have to have a team that plays defense so intense that they manage to miss most of their shots. Even then, that's a challenge, as five Bears shoot better than 46 percent from the field, and four shoot better than 36 percent from behind the arc.

It doesn't stop there. Xavier, who's become a national power, is making waves again with one of the top backcourts in the country in Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons. And let's not forget little Belmont in Nashville, who almost knocked off Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium to start the season. The Bruins play a deep bench, with no one playing over 29 minutes, and I love the guard play of Kerron Johnson and Ian Clark.

While the small, private schools struggle to become power players on the college football scene, one thing's for sure. Come hoops time, they're a large piece of the elite pie.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 7:12 PM | Comments (0)

December 9, 2011

Not All Marlins Excited About Reyes

Bringing in another all-star level talent to your franchise is usually met with applause by fans and members of the organization.

For the Miami Marlins, the Jose Reyes signing signaled a shift in power and the hope of a brighter, more exciting future. It's considered a great move by everyone except for one team member who is being forced to move from his natural position. It was rumored that the Reyes acquisition was enough to make Hanley Ramirez call his agent and the movers to get him out of Miami.

Ramirez is one of the best in the business at the shortstop position, but he's now being asked to move to third base to allow Reyes to take over at short stop. The physical move from shortstop to third base is only a matter of feet on the baseball field. In terms of focus and skills needed to successfully transition to the new position, it's a much greater difference.

It's understandable for Ramirez to not be excited about the move his team made, at least initially. Think about it, he is 27-years-old. He has been the face of the franchise for a few years now and made three all-star teams over his six-year career. It's not like he was struggling on the field — not by a long shot.

Then the team decides to bring in another young, dynamic all-star who happens to play the same position he does and offers him a deal for six years at $102 million with a seventh-year option at $22 million.

After taking that all in, it could be easy to see where the frustration may set in, initially. But after looking further and understanding that professional sports are a business, Ramirez has to understand that nothing done is personal — it's all business.

Reyes is a very marketable player with a big smile and the huge talent to match. He is the reigning National League batting title winner with a .337 average and 39 stolen bases last season. He brings more media attention to the team coming from New York and he will help sell seats.

While reports surfaced that Ramirez would request a trade, he has backed away from that claim. A source told ESPN that instead of demanding a trade, Ramirez simply informed the Marlins that he wouldn't play another position besides shortstop.

The new manager, Ozzie Guillen, is excited about the new acquisitions and he isn't done trying to add more talent. The biggest prize would be bringing Albert Pujols to the club from St. Louis.

Guillen has had to play the role of manager/psychologist already with Ramirez, telling him that he is still the centerpiece of the team, even with Reyes coming in to play shortstop.

It will be important for Guillen to establish good relationships with his players early because as the team adds more talent, they are also opening themselves up to intense scrutiny from the media and fans.

These "dream teams" have had mixed results in other sports, most recently with the Philadelphia Eagles struggling through the regular season in the NFL and the Miami Heat going through their share of ups and downs before losing in the NBA Finals.

It will definitely be interesting to see how this situation pans out in Miami.

Posted by Megan Brown at 6:10 PM | Comments (1)

December 8, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 14

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-14)

The Steelers face the Browns in what is sure to be a typical AFC North slugfest, replete with intensity, emotion, and hard-hitting action. The Steelers are riding a three-game winning streak after a convincing 35-7 win over the Bengals last week.

"What does the NFL fear more?" James Harrison said. "The Steelers causing concussions, or treating them. The Browns may wear helmets with no names on them, but I've got a helmet with their names on it. Roger Goodell will no doubt have an eye on this game, with the other on Ndamukong Suh."

The Browns are 0-3 in the AFC North after losing to Baltimore last week. Cleveland has struggled to score, averaging only 14.5 points per game.

"In Cleveland," Pat Shurmur said, "'offensively-challenged' is an adjective and a verb.

"But we're not afraid to take it to Pittsburgh. What we do with it when we get there is of greater concern. Surprisingly, we have a lot in common with the Steelers. Actually, we only have one thing in common with the Steelers — neither of us can beat the Ravens."

Pittsburgh wins, 27-16.

Tampa Bay @ Jacksonville (-1)

The 3-9 Jaguars host the 4-8 Buccaneers in a battle of inferiority for superiority in the state of Florida, not including teams that started the season 0-7. Jacksonville lost to the Chargers on Monday night in the first game for interim head coach Mel Tucker.

"That's right, the Mel Tucker," said Tucker. "Jack Del Rio is gone as head coach. After a number of blackouts in Jacksonville, there's finally a white out. I'm here to pick up the pieces. Loosely translated, 'Jack Del Rio' means 'Jack of the river.' Now 'Jack Del Rio' means 'Jack up the creek.'"

The Bucs fell 38-19 in a sloppy loss to Carolina last week. After a 3-1 start, Tampa has lost seven of their last eight, and are currently 4-8.

"The state of Florida has certainly been the national capitol of football ineptitude this year," Raheem Morris said. "That's obviously why they call it the hot 'seat.' But I think my job is safe. The Tampa front office promised the league 'no more firings,' guns or otherwise."

Tampa Bay wins, 27-10.

Kansas City @ NY Jets (-9)

The Jets won in Washington 34-19, breaking a 13-13 third quarter tie with 21 fourth-quarter points. The Jets are now 7-5, and in the hunt with four other 7-5 AFC teams for two wild card spots.

"I'm guaranteeing a Super Bowl victory," Rex Ryan said, "retroactive to January 12, 1969. We're right where we want to be. Our running game is working, our defense is solid, and Mark Sanchez has regained his swagger, which he apparently misplaced in the centerfold of the September issue of GQ."

The Chiefs stayed alive in the AFC West race with a 10-3 win in Chicago. Tyler Palko's 38-yard Hail Mary touchdown pass to Dexter McCluster to end the first half provided the winning margin.

"Ironically," Todd Haley said, "that's not the first time Palko has thrown a pass into a crowd of six defenders. It was luck, but I'd rather be lucky than good any day, particularly those when Palko is quarterback. The next time I say 'Hail Mary,' it will likely be because I'm requesting a quarterback named 'Mary.'"

The Jets confuse Palko with changing defensive schemes, oddly enough, the very same ones they use in practice to confuse Sanchez. Three Palko turnovers later, the Jets walk away with a 23-10 win.

Houston @ Cincinnati (-3)

The Texans are 9-3 after earning their sixth-straight win, a 17-10 defensive battle over the Falcons. Arian Foster rushed for 111 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries to lead Houston. A tough contest awaits in Cincinnati, where the 7-6 Bengals look to reassert themselves.

"I don't know what's done more carrying for Houston this year," Arian Foster said. "Me, or a stretcher. And I'm not done. I've got W.B. Yeats in my backpack, and T.J. Yates on my back."

The Bengals dropped to 7-5 after a 35-7 loss in Pittsburgh as the Steelers swept the season series and knocked Cincinnati down a notch.

"We're 0-3 against the Steelers and Ravens this year," Marvin Lewis said. "It appears that the big cats can't run with the big dogs. Hopefully, the porch we'll be staying on won't be our own come playoff time."

Foster scores 2 touchdowns, and the Texans defense sacks Andy Falton 4 times.

Houston tunes up for a cold weather playoff game with a 25-17 win.

Minnesota @ Detroit (-5)

The Vikings are 2-10 after a heartbreaking 35-32 loss to the Broncos last week. Christian Ponder passed for 381 yards, but a late interception spelled doom, and Matt Prater's 23-yard field goal as time expired ended it.

"Tebow is Jesus," Ponder said. "Just with way more comebacks. I feel personally responsible for our defeat. On the fateful interception, my receiver and I had mixed signals. As a result, this Christian died on the 'cross.'"

The Lions season continues to spiral slowly downward. The Lions lost to New Orleans 31-17 last week, hampered by 11 penalties for 107 yards, including a personal foul on Brandon Pettigrew for shoving an official. Meanwhile, Ndamukong Suh served the first game of his two-game suspension for his Thanksgiving Day stomping incident.

"We started the season 5-0," Jim Schwartz said. "Since then, we're 2-5. We've gone from 'ballers' to 'bawlers.' Earlier, we played like there was a chip on our shoulders. Now, we're playing like there's chippiness on our shoulders. Frankly, I don't mind Roger Goodell taking a personal interest in my team. Who else will discipline my players?

"The real question is this: if a suspended NFL player hits a tree in a car, does it make a sound? Do the injured passengers make a sound? Apparently, Portland, Oregon police are much more gullible than Commissioner Goodell."

Detroit wins, 34-14.

Indianapolis @ Baltimore (-15)

After a 31-24 loss to the Patriots last week, the Colts are 0-12 and are closing in on securing next year's No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. Dan Orlovsky threw for 352 yards and 2 scores as the Colts made a late comeback that fell short.

"Not only are we 0-12," Orlovsky said, "we're also 0 for '11. That's a winning percentage of .000. We're all hoping Peyton Manning neck surgeries eventually have a better success rate."

The Ravens whipped the Browns in Cleveland last week behind 204 yards rushing from Ray Rice. Baltimore rushed for 290 yards as a team, including 76 on 16 carries by Ricky Williams.

"That's not the first time Ricky's been charged with clean-up duty," Rice said. "He's 'still got it,' and I don't mean the ability to run the ball."

Baltimore wins, 34-13.

New Orleans @ Tennessee (+3½)

Chris Johnson rushed for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns to lead the Titans to a 23-17 win in Buffalo. Johnson has rushed for 343 yards in his last two games, and is 14th in the NFL with 852 yards on the ground.

"Chris is finally giving us a run for our money," Mike Munchak said. "He's been running with our money nearly all season."

The Saints whipped the Lions 31-14 on Monday night behind 342 yards passing and 3 touchdowns from Drew Brees. Brees became the first player to reach 4,000 yards passing in 12 games.

"With apologies to Tim Tebow," Sean Payton said, "Brees is a Saint. Right now, we're the third seed in the NFC. That's not to say we've given up on overtaking the 49ers for the two-seed. Indeed, we are 'bye-curious.' But a home game against the NFC's No. 6 seed, and a trip to San Fran as opposed to Green Bay, sounds appealing."

New Orleans wins, 27-20.

Philadelphia @ Miami (-3)

The Dolphins pummeled the Raiders 34-14 last week, dominating the AFC West leaders. Miami has won four of its last five games, outscoring opponents 139-54 in the process.

"This is one team no one wants to play," Tony Sparano said. "And judging by all the talk questioning the Eagles effort, we're one of four teams Philly doesn't want to play."

The Eagles lost last Thursday 31-14 in Seattle, as Vince Young threw four interceptions and DeSean Jackson listened to the Moody Blues in his iPod.

"I'll reiterate," Andy Reid said. "There is no quit in this team. Heck, we did all our 'giving up' during the off-season, when we went on a free agent spending spree.

"Jackson is struggling at a time when he needs to excel. That's not to say he hasn't made a name for himself. He has. Everyone calls him 'DeValued Jackson now."

The Eagles come to play, and Michael Vick, returning from injury, channels Ron Mexico, infecting everyone with his attitude.

Eagles win, 31-27.

Atlanta @ Carolina (+2½)

In last week's 38-19 win over Tampa, Cam Newton rushed for 3 touchdowns, breaking Steve Grogan's NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback. Newton has 13 scores on the ground to go along with 13 passing TDs.

"Eli Manning be damned," Newton said. "I'm the one in the same class with a Patriot quarterback. I knew I was destined for super-stardom. As soon as I donned that Carolina jersey, it was clear that I was numbered '1.'

"Athleticism runs in my family. I'm skilled at running, the ball. My dad is skilled at passing ... the collection plate."

Atlanta looks to rebound after a tough 17-10 loss to the Texans. Now 7-5, the Falcons trail the Saints by two games in the NFC South, and are still well in the hunt for a wildcard spot.

"We're perfectly happy with a wild card spot," Mike Smith said. "I won't take a back seat to Ndamukong Suh, but I don't mind taking one to the Saints."

The Falcons get their offense in gear, and Michael Turner rushes for 121 yards and a touchdown, while Matt Ryan passes for 2 scores.

Atlanta wins, 31-22.

New England @ Washington (+9)

The Patriots built a 31-3 lead over the Colts last week before surviving a furious Indianapolis rally. With their 31-24 win, New England is now 9-3, two games up on the Jets in the AFC East, with a test against the unpredictable Redskins upcoming.

"We've got the NFL's second-best air attack," Tom Brady said. "So, I think it's safe to say we'll 'pass' the test.

"As for our defense, they can be passed on, but they can't be passed. Why? Because they're ranked 32nd in pass defense. Most people don't know who our defensive coordinator is, and I think he'd prefer to keep it that way."

The Redskins are 4-8 after a 34-19 loss to the Jets last week, and they'll be without tight end Fred Davis and offensive tackle Trent Williams for the remainder of the season. The two were suspended for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

"Fred and Trent are two of our best offensive players," Mike Shanahan said. "NFL guidelines say if you fail three times, you sit. Obviously, the same does not apply to our quarterbacks."

Bill Belichick and the Patriots surprise everyone, including the Redskins, by controlling the game with their defense and running game.

New England wins, 34-16.

Chicago @ Denver (-3½)

The Broncos won in Minnesota 35-32 and took a share of the AFC West lead behind the arm of Tim Tebow and the leg of Matt Prater. Tebow threw for 2 scores, and Prater kicked the game-winning field goal.

"It's hard not to get excited about what Tebow is doing," John Fox said. "It's even harder not to exclaim 'Hell yeah!' when he does it. If Tim gives me that look, I just tell him I said 'Hail yeah.'

"There's a fine line between 'Tebow is God' and 'Tebow is good.' I think the former applies more than the latter. You need proof? Here it is: the image of Tebow has appeared in the box score."

Caleb Hanie threw 3 interceptions as the Bears tumbled at home, 10-3 to the Chiefs. Matt Forte sprained his knee, and will likely miss significant time, adding to the Bears woes in the wake of Jay Cutler's broken thumb.

"Things went from bad to worse," Lovie Smith said. "Three points won't win you many games. Goldilocks was not in Chicago, but the '3' Bears were.

"I'd give an arm and a leg for a solution to my problems. Despite the availability of both Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb, we're sticking with Hanie. That speaks volumes about what I think of Hanie's leadership skills. And it speaks volumes about what people think of my lack of leadership skills."

Tebow and the Broncos continue their ascension, while Hanie and the Bears continue to struggle. Smith considers calling Favre and McNabb at halftime.

Denver wins, 16-9.

San Francisco @ Arizona (+3½)

The 49ers clinched the NFC West in style last week, shutting out the Rams 26-0 to improve to 10-2. With wins in their last four games, San Francisco would be ensured of a first-round bye. That quest begins in Glendale as the Cardinals play host.

"As most people know," Jim Harbaugh said, "I'm a workaholic. Some nights, I don't even make it home. That's why my family and I were thrilled to clinch the West so early. That Gatorade bath was the first one I've had in months."

Arizona stunned the Cowboys in overtime, winning on Kevin Kolb's 52-yard screen pass to LaRod Stephens-Howling, who weaved through the Dallas defense to paydirt. Arizona is now 5-7, good for a tie for second in the NFC West.

"In Dallas film study," Ken Whisenhunt said, "they call that play 'The Howling,' and it's still a horror movie."

San Francisco wins, 23-17.

Buffalo @ San Diego (-6½)

The Chargers ended their six-game slide with a resounding 38-14 win in Jacksonville on Monday night. Philip Rivers threw for 294 yards and 3 touchdowns, and San Diego improved to 5-7, two games behind the Raiders and Broncos in the AFC West.

"I'd like to say we're right back in the AFC West race," Philip Rivers said. "But I won't, because in this pathetic division, we never left, even after losing six in a row.

"We certainly turned a corner. Of course, we need to be careful, because if we turn another corner, those lines would combine to form an 'L.'"

After last week's 23-17 loss to the Titans, the Bills have lost five in a row and are approaching the bottom of the AFC East. At 5-7, Buffalo is only one ahead of the surging Dolphins, who have won four of five.

"What's the weather forecast for San Diego?" asked Ryan Fitzpatrick. "Warm and moist, at least on the Chargers sideline. It's a long flight to San Diego from Buffalo. But at least we don't have to travel overseas for a game, like the Bears and Bucs did earlier this year. As Nick Novak would say, we're staying 'in continent.'"

San Diego win, 34-17.

Oakland @ Green Bay (-11)

The Packers remained perfect after a thrilling 38-35 win over the Giants last week. At 12-0, Green Bay has clinched the NFC North, and has their sights set on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, as well as a perfect 16-0 regular season.

"Fifty-eight seconds was plenty of time," Aaron Rodgers said. "We needed less than a New York minute to beat the Giants.

"What's more important to us? A perfect record, or another Super Bowl win? I say why not expand your horizons, open your mind, and go both ways. So, Miami, and Indianapolis, here we come."

The Raiders looked awful in a 34-14 loss in Miami, and fell into a tie with the Broncos atop the AFC West at 7-5.

"Carson Palmer has thrown 8 touchdowns," Hue Jackson said, "and 9 interceptions as a Raider. We gave up two picks to get him, and so far, we've received nine in return.

"The 49ers and Packers have 'y's' next to their names in the standings indicating they've clinched a playoff berth. We should have a 'how' next to ours, because I don't know how we're in first."

Aaron Rodgers throws for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Packers win, 38-17.

NY Giants @ Dallas (-3½)

Despite a 38-35 loss to the Packers last week, the Giants remained only one game behind the Cowboys, due to Dallas' 19-13 overtime loss in Arizona. New York could regain a share of the NFC East lead with a win in Dallas, in the first of two games against Dallas in the next four weeks.

"Like the Cowboys," Tom Coughlin said, "we lost on the last play of the game. In some cases, that's called 'sudden death,' which is usually the fate of NFC East in the playoffs, not the regular season.

"Luckily, we have a lot of confidence, especially Antrel Rolle, who guaranteed we'll make the playoffs. Just what the Cowboys need, bulletin board material. They, like us, don't have any of their own. I'll be sure to mark Rolle's words, in pencil."

The Cowboys lost 19-13 in overtime in Arizona last week. Dallas head coach Jason Garrett called a timeout with seven seconds left in regulation, just before Dan Bailey's successful 48-yard field goal. Bailey missed the re-kick, sending the game into overtime.

"Garrett is to clock management," Jerry Jones said, "what Raheem Morris is to Glock management. Neither is very good at it."

New York wins, 30-27.

St. Louis @ Seattle (-6½)

The Seahawks beat the Eagles 31-14 last Thursday, powered by Marshawn Lynch's 148 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. Seattle is 5-7, tied for second in the NFC West, and hosts the 2-10 Rams.

"Marshawn may be the best running back I've ever coached," Pete Carroll said, "college or professional. And he's certainly the most underpaid, college or professional."

Seattle wins, 24-14.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:58 PM | Comments (0)

Fighting, Head Hits, and New Responsibilities

In a two-week span, the NHL faced a bevy of coaching firings and hirings and major realignment changes for next season. However, what should be the biggest piece of news is something that may not get the usual sports talk radio fans going. No, it has nothing to do with whether Dale Hunter will get the most out of Alexander Ovechkin, or if Bruce Boudreau will turn around the Anaheim Ducks like he did to the Washington Capitals next season. Nor does it have anything to do with how the to-be-determined playoff system will work best for next year's realignment.

The biggest, most important piece of news is that the late Derek Boogaard, at the tragically young age of 28, was facing chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE — a cognitive degenerative disorder) when he accidentally overdosed on a mixture of painkillers and alcohol over the summer.

The findings by Boston University's research team showed that Boogaard's cognitive function, had he lived, would have spiraled downward into what they termed "middle-aged dementia." All of this came out as part of an extensive New York Times three-part story on the rise and fall of one of the NHL's most feared enforcers.

These days, head hits and concussions are dealt with as much scrutiny as any point in pro sports, be it hockey, football, or boxing. The medical technology is available to examine brains of recently deceased pro athletes and the findings have been shocking, though when you apply some sensible logic to it, it's not all that surprising. These are high-impact contact sports, and in some roles, the brain gets tossed around the skull more than others. High-profile situations, like Boogaard or former NFLer Dave Duerson, all shine a brighter spotlight on the situation.

The reaction from the hockey community has been mixed — the official word from the NHL is, not surprisingly, vague at best. Pundits across North America have lined up on both ends of the spectrum, with some saying that this is scientific proof that the game needs to do more to protect the players while others are saying that the players know exactly what they're getting into.

The proper answer, as always, is probably somewhere in the middle. Pro sports needs to understand what the long-term impact is on its core asset, the player. At the same time, players volunteer for this — no one is forcing them into it. The middle ground, then, is education, and a combination of journalism and science like the New York Times piece is the proper path for that.

However, here's the kicker: you can say all you want about whether or not the league changes its rules or whether hockey culture as a whole needs to be changed; the bottom line is that nothing will happen without the consent of the NHLPA constituency.

That's not to say that the NHLPA needs some sort of official referendum on head hits and/or fighting. But these are the guys who are actually out there taking the blows to the skull, and the majority of them still want to keep fighting in the game. There's been a gradual acceptance that A) concussions are scary, unpredictable things and B) targeted hits to the head are probably a bad thing over the long-term.

Deeper than that, though? An article like the New York Times' (which also includes former NHL enforcer Brantt Myhres speaking about some of his post-playing struggles) can be eye-opening to the public, but ultimately the players have to decide what's important to them. Do they want to enact a major change, one that may put jobs at risk for certain types of players? What's more important, the overall health and safety of the individual members or the solidarity of association jobs?

It's easy for the people on the outside to say that the dangers of fighting and head hits are now obvious. It's not their jobs on the line. It's not their competitive spirit — one that's taken a lifetime to groom and mold into the top 0.01% in the world — that's being challenged. The more this discussion invades the public consciousness, the more players will hear about it, and that will provide some sway into things. But ultimately, the decision has to come from the players about what they're willing to accept as part of their job and their lifestyle.

Posted by Mike Chen at 11:16 AM | Comments (0)

December 7, 2011

Trade Rumors Abound For Paul and Howard

To all the sports writers who cover the NBA and were struggling to find entertaining stories over the course of the lockout, you have been rewarded for toughing it out. There is so much activity going on around the league right now, and it will only escalate once teams are officially able to sign off on deals. Nothing is certain right now, except there will be plenty of work for moving companies within the next week.

With all the talk and rumors going on, I decided to break it down into groups and discuss a few of the possible destinations for the two biggest options available.

Chris Paul

New York Knicks

Paul made a toast at Carmelo Anthony's wedding last year where he said he was looking to form a super team like the one his good friends LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade did out in South Beach. Paul's group would be Anthony and Amare Stoudemire in the Big Apple. At that point, only Stoudemire was actually on the Knicks and then Anthony made his way on the team after months of denying any trade rumors. This season, Paul is facing that same situation with his free agency looming at the end of the season. While Paul would love to play in New York, the New Orleans Hornets aren't interested in the players that the Knicks have to offer.

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have trade assets in Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, Lamar Odom and Metta World Peace (the player formerly known as Ron Artest). A team with Kobe Bryant and a few of the other players that wouldn't be involved in the trade has to be intriguing to any player. Living and playing on the big stage and bright lights of Los Angeles is a nice perk, also. But the Lakers are not the only team in L.A...

Los Angeles Clippers

Blake Griffin took the NBA by storm last season delivering highlight dunk after highlight dunk. His play sent shockwaves around the league and he is surrounded by a talented group of young athletes looking to take the next step in their development. Paul throwing alley-oops to Griffin would be a scary thought for the rest of the league, especially the Lakers, who share their home-court with the Clippers. The Clippers and Lakers are both also after...

Dwight Howard

Los Angeles Clippers

The same way the Clippers would look to pick up Paul, they intend to pursue Howard. The idea of trading young players and draft picks has to be considered by Otis Smith, the general manager of the Orlando Magic. Howard will be a free agent this summer and if he decides to leave the Magic, they will get nothing in return and lose one of the most dominate players in the game. The fans there are having flashbacks to when they lost a young man named Shaquille O'Neal. Once again, the hometown rivals have something to say about that...

Los Angeles Lakers

Rumors have been spreading like wildfire over the last few days about Howard, Paul, and Kobe joining forces out in L.A. to make a title run. Once again, the Lakers do have the players that could potentially be used in a trade to bring both players to L.A.

I'm not sure if Paul or Howard will be traded this season, but I know that by next year, both of them will be on new teams.

Posted by Megan Brown at 6:50 PM | Comments (2)

Under the Radar

In Saturday's "Game of the Year" between North Carolina and Kentucky, the star players for both teams were front and center. Tar Heel Harrison Barnes helped get Carolina in position to have a final shot to win with a late timely three and was tied for the team lead in points with one of his vaunted frontcourt mates, Tyler Zeller. The third member of that group, John Henson, factored heavily in Carolina's last possession, as his shot with seconds left was blocked by perhaps the one player in the country who could, Kentucky freshman Anthony Davis. The other highly regarded Kentucky freshmen, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marquis Teague, were on display throughout the nail-biter (albeit with Kidd-Gilchrist performing the better of the two).

However, below that level of the two favorites to meet for the title in New Orleans are many players that have performed highly, but aren't as well-known by the average college basketball fan. All three of these players are on teams that could at the very least appear in the NCAAs, and could stay a while.

Michael Glover, Iona

For the first time in several years at this point of the season, VMI is not the nation's highest scoring team. For right now, Iona holds that distinction. Of course, scoring a massive amount of points is often a function of pace in college basketball, and only four teams in the nation move play faster than Iona.

As a team, the Gaels have a fantastic effective shooting percentage of 55.9%, and Glover is their talisman in the paint offensively, going for 19.9 points a game on 61.8% shooting from the field. Despite this being his second straight year leading the Gaels in rebounding and scoring, Glover is probably not the most recognizable name to college basketball fans.

That honor would have to go to Momo Jones, the former Arizona guard who played in 38 games with the Wildcats last year, but was granted a hardship waiver by the NCAA to play closer to his Harlem home and ailing grandmother. The recruitment of Jones by coach Tim Cluess is representative of the second-year coach's ability to attract solid New York City talent early in his tenure after coaching at Division II Long Island-C.W. Post. Glover himself is a transfer, originally starting at Seton Hall, where he was later ruled ineligible due to irregularities with his high school transcript. He bounced around the junior college ranks for a couple years before starting with Cluess at Iona at the beginning of last year.

Iona perhaps went unfairly unnoticed at a national level a year ago due to the regular season dominance of Fairfield in the MAAC, but this year the Gaels are prohibitive favorites to make the NCAAs out of the league. Iona nearly beat Purdue in the first game of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, but smashed Maryland by 26 later in the tourney.

Doug McDermott, Creighton

A higher-profile national college sports columnist once said about players playing for their father at the college level, "You better be the best player on the team or the worst." McDermott certainly qualifies as the former, playing for his dad, Greg, on a nationally ranked Creighton team that returned all but one of its key contributors from a 23-win team a year ago.

Currently, McDermott is putting up unbelievable offensive numbers as an inside-outside power forward. The 6-7 sophomore is averaging 23.7 points a game, good enough to be the fifth leading scorer in the country. He has made 64.2% of his twos and 57.7% of his threes, adding up to an effective field goal mark of 69.6%. The Bluejays have beaten two Big Ten teams this season, but seeing as how the two are named "Iowa" and "Nebraska," the most impressive win Creighton has thus far is over surprising San Diego State.

Incredibly, father thought son would be best off redshirting before his freshman season in October, but injuries pushed Doug into early playing time. McDermott the younger excelled once he got on the floor, winning Missouri Valley Freshman and Newcomer of the Year. McDermott looks to have taken yet another leap as a sophomore, coming after a summer playing with Team USA's U-19 squad at the World Championships in Latvia.

One interesting anecdote about McDermott is that he was a high school teammate of Barnes at Ames High School. It's no wonder that the duo led the Little Cyclones to undefeated state championships in 2009 and 2010. McDermott originally committed Northern Iowa, but was released from his letter-of-intent so he could play for his dad when he was hired away from Iowa State to coach Creighton.

Despite being ranked in the middle of the league in the preseason, McDermott's would-be school, Northern Iowa, has put together the second-best non-conference resume in the Valley and could represent surprise competition for Creighton in the league. Wichita State should once again be a quality team, and knocked off previously undefeated, North Carolina-slaying UNLV last Sunday.

Meyers Leonard, Illinois

It's odd how college basketball works sometimes. Last season, Illinois was supposed to have one of the best sides in the Big Ten. Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale were all back for their senior seasons and talented underclassmen like DJ Richardson, Jereme Richmond and Brandon Paul were to make the Illini that much better. The end result was a 13-loss team that looked like it hated playing with each other, going 9-9 in conference. After early January, Illinois never once won two games in a row.

Improbably, after being picked in the middle of the Big Ten, this year's Illini are 8-0 and are coming off of decent-to-solid wins against Maryland and Gonzaga last week. Their leading scorer to this point is Leonard, a bit player as a highly touted freshman recruit in 2010-11 who averaged nearly as many fouls per game as points per game a year ago.

The 7-1 center is still somewhat raw on the offensive end of the floor, but has improved so much in the past year that his shooting percentage has gone from below 50% to above 60%. Defensively, Leonard may already be one of the best big men in the Big Ten, but should improve his rebounding. Leonard is coming off perhaps his best performance in an Illini uniform against Gonzaga, going 9-for-11 from the floor for 21 points, despite being saddled with first-half foul trouble.

Richardson has performed well during Illinois' 8-0 start, but Paul will have to be more efficient if the Illini have any chance of breaking into the top three of the Big Ten in 2012. Despite the disappointing summer for Team USA's U19s in Latvia, it appears that something about that team has made its players improve. Like McDermott, Leonard played solid minutes for Paul Hewitt's team.

There are many, many more players in America that could be profiled as under-the-radar stars or budding stars. However, not all have the chance to lead their teams to March success like Glover, McDermott, and Leonard do with Iona, Creighton, and Illinois, respectively.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 12:53 PM | Comments (0)

December 6, 2011

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Better late than never: Ron Santo was finally chosen for the Baseball Hall of Fame.

* This is a stunning statistic: the Bills sacked John Beck nine times in Week 8. In Buffalo's other 11 games combined, the team has only eight sacks.

* Donald Driver scored 2 receiving touchdowns this weekend, making him the fifth-oldest player with multiple receiving TDs in a game, joining Jerry Rice, Charlie Joiner, Terrell Owens, and Derrick Mason.

* Trend I appreciate: running backs handing the ball to an offensive lineman to spike after rushing touchdowns.

* NFL Network: stop missing plays. Seriously.

***

In a way, I suppose it's natural for former players tend to glorify their own accomplishments. Ron Jaworksi, of course, for many years held the record for consecutive games started by a quarterback. That distinction has become much easier to maintain with all the new rules protecting passers, but here's what Jaws had to say about the streak on Monday night:

"I'll speak for myself, any of those quarterbacks, how important it is to line up every single game with your teammates. You feel that it's so important that you play through injuries, you wanna be there for your teammates, they're counting if you have consistency in the offense."

I don't question that all of that is true. Any competitor wants to be out there playing, and anyone with a heart feels responsibility to his team. But at the end of the day, is this kind of thing really significant? I'll take a great player who missed a couple games over a journeyman who plays hurt. Last season, Aaron Rodgers (who missed 1½ games) and Ben Roethlisberger (who missed 4) met in Super Bowl XLV. How important is a consecutive game streak, really? Playing every week is better than not, but a missed game is just a missed game.

On to this week's power rankings — brackets show last week's rank.

1. Green Bay Packers [1] — Here's why I'm not a defensive coordinator. On the first touchdown of the game, a 67-yard pass to Travis Beckum, Clay Matthews dropped into coverage instead of rushing, and Eli Manning had forever to throw, under absolutely no pressure. So I'm sitting there thinking how ridiculous it is to waste a weapon like Matthews in coverage. On the first play of the second quarter, Matthews intercepted a pass and returned it for a touchdown. The Packers have clinched the NFC North.

2. New England Patriots [2] — The rivalry with Indianapolis doesn't feel like a rivalry at all with Peyton Manning on the sidelines. Rob Gronkowski set or tied some sort of record this weekend, but for me, it got lost in the shuffle of all the random stats I've heard on television this year. Most TD passes by a Detroit Lions quarterback in his first 25 games. Most receptions in a single season by a New Orleans Saint tight end. Best passer rating for a Minnesota Viking punter. Come on, quit that.

These are the same people who want you to believe that there's something meaningful about a baseball player's batting average on Tuesdays, against left-handed middle relievers, following a rain delay, when he's batting sixth, in June. The really specific football stats are about equally useful — most of these simply are not meaningful records. Let's stick to the pretty big ones, okay?

3. New Orleans Saints [4] — I know NFL defensive coaches see what I see, so I don't understand why defenses cover Jimmy Graham like a tight end. Put your best cornerback on him! Graham is a big, strong guy (6-6, 260), tough for a corner to bring down, but linebackers and safeties can't cover him one-on-one. If you compare him to tight ends, Graham is a phenomenon. But I think he's much more like a big wide receiver, and viewed that way, he's still a standout, but not a blossoming legend. I guess I have limited appreciation for a guy who's only on the field for about two-thirds of the offensive snaps. The Saints really tip their hand on run plays, because Graham almost always subs out.

4. Baltimore Ravens [5] — I've complained about a thousand times that they should use Ray Rice more often, but this wasn't what I had in mind. When you're winning 24-3 with 4:00 left, and your 5'8" RB has carried the ball 27 times, give him a rest. I know everybody wanted Rice to get 200 yards, but it's not worth the injury risk at that point. This team has Super Bowl aspirations, and if Rice gets overworked and injured, that dream is over.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers [3] — Beatdown of a divisional rival included a 28-0 second quarter, and served notice that the Steelers and Ravens are still the class of the AFC North. It wasn't a dominant showing for the Pittsburgh offense (295 yards, 2/10 third down conversions), but special teams, penalties, and a healthy defense turned the game into a blowout. James Harrison sacked Andy Dalton three times.

6. San Francisco 49ers [7] — Clinched the NFC West, and Frank Gore became the team's all-time rushing leader, surpassing Hall of Famer Joe Perry. I have a lot of respect for Gore. He probably should be regarded as one of the 50 best RBs in history at this point. But records like this don't do justice to someone like Perry, who played 12-game seasons most of his career and dominated the league in a way that Gore simply never has.

Considering only their careers with San Francisco, the top 10 RBs in 49er history: Perry, Hugh McElhenny, Roger Craig, Gore, Ken Willard, J.D. Smith, Garrison Hearst, Johnny Strzykalski, Ricky Watters, Delvin Williams.

7. Houston Texans [9] — Won their sixth in a row, and can clinch the AFC South next week with a win and a Titans loss. T.J. Yates didn't light the world on fire, while Arian Foster and Ben Tate combined for 3.6 yards per carry, and Andre Johnson suffered another hamstring injury. But they converted when they had to, and the defense came up big again. Connor Barwin, who had four hits on Matt Ryan and two pass deflections, is quickly becoming an elite player. He deserves serious Pro Bowl consideration. If Yates were Matt Schaub, the Texans would probably rank second this week. Opponents are completing just 49.8% of their passes against Houston.

8. Atlanta Falcons [6] — Rough outing for Matt Ryan, who didn't take any sacks, but got hit 10 times and threw a pair of interceptions. The Falcons lost two of their first three games. Since then, they're 6-3, with the losses to 12-0 Green Bay, 9-3 New Orleans, and 9-3 Houston. This is a pretty good team, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't qualify for a wild card in the NFC playoffs.

9. Denver Broncos [10] — Only a Bronco fan (or a Florida Gator) could be impressed by their last-minute win over the Vikings, who are 2-10, just lost their fourth straight, and were missing their best player (Adrian Peterson). Minnesota outgained the Broncos by 150 yards, picked up twice as many first downs, won time of possession by more than 15 minutes, scored a safety, and connected on two TD passes of over 40 yards. But Denver has now won five in a row, four of them on the road. John Fox's coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for the job it's done this year. When life gives you Tim Tebow lemons, make dramatic adaptations on offense lemonade. I actually think we've all been too hard on Tebow's passing. Those fourth-quarter comebacks are when he's throwing the ball, and that's when Denver's offense has been most successful.

10. Dallas Cowboys [8] — Since the bye, Dallas is 5-3. In all five wins, DeMarco Murray was the leading rusher, on either team, averaging 139 yards per game. In the losses, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, LeSean McCoy, and Beanie Wells, respectively, have out-rushed Murray (49 yards per game in the losses). Against Arizona, Murray rushed for 38 yards with a 3.2 average. I haven't been impressed with Jason Garrett since 2007, but Sunday's end-of-regulation performance was weak even for him. With :27 and two timeouts, you don't ask your kicker to try a 49-yard field goal. Forget the poorly-executed timeout, why aren't you trying to get closer?

11. Tennessee Titans [16] — With Chris Johnson rounding back into form, how dangerous is this team? Johnson's average per carry is up to 4.1. Matt Hasselbeck's slump has coincided with Johnson's good showing, but if those two can click simultaneously, the Titans could steal a tough game, finish 10-6, and qualify for the playoffs. Hasselbeck has passed for under 200 yards three weeks in a row, with a passer rating under 80 for four weeks in a row. Fantasy owners, this man is not to be trusted.

Hasselbeck, first five weeks: 283 yds/gm, 95.9 rating
Hasselbeck since the bye: 178 yds/gm, 71.9 rating

Then again, I said the same thing about Chris Johnson a month ago.

12. New York Jets [15] — Two unimpressive wins in a row. The scoreboard shows a comfortable 34-19 victory, but the Jets were losing with 5:00 left. All of the remaining games on the schedule look winnable, so the Jets have to like their chances of securing a playoff spot, but they'd better root against the Broncos and Raiders, both of whom hold head-to-head tiebreakers over the Jets. I saw an interview on Sunday in which Santonio Holmes described himself and Plaxico Burress as "superstars." This season, Holmes ranks 58th in receptions, 46th in receiving yards, and tied for 16th in touchdown catches. He has no plays of 40 yards or more. Dude has never even been to a Pro Bowl. He was drafted in the 13th round of my fantasy league. Someone needs a reality check.

13. Cincinnati Bengals [12] — Lost three of their last four, all inside the division, after a 6-2 start. They're 1-5 against teams that currently have winning records, beating Tennessee in Week 9. There's something to be said for the winning the games you're supposed to, but even if Cincinnati sneaks into the playoffs, this isn't an elite team yet. Let's see where they are in two or three years.

14. Detroit Lions [14] — Both the Giants and Lions have played against Green Bay and New Orleans in the last two weeks. That'll put a dent in your playoff hopes. Unless everyone else on the periphery of the NFC playoff hunt loses, too, as happened this weekend. All the 7-4 teams lost (Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit), the only 6-5 team lost (Giants), and no one was 5-6. Going into the Week 9 bye, Calvin Johnson was averaging 100.5 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game. In the four games since, 72 yards and 0.25 TDs. The Lions need to make defenses pay for double-teaming Megatron. And other than a healthy Kevin Smith, so far it seems like that's not happening.

15. Chicago Bears [11] — Lost an ugly game that saw Kansas City's Tyler Palko out-duel Caleb Hanie to win the battle of backup quarterbacks. Hanie has 2 TDs, 6 INTs, a 40.8 passer rating, and an 0-2 record as a starter for a team that was 7-3 with him on the bench. To make matters worse, Matt Forte suffered an MCL injury on Sunday and will miss at least two weeks, maybe the rest of the season. This ranking is probably too high.

16. Arizona Cardinals [20] — Won four of their last five. Yes, seriously. And here are the last three teams they've lost to: 9-3 Steelers, 9-3 Ravens, 10-2 49ers. They put a scare into the Ravens, even. If Week 4 referee Jerome Boger knew the rules, the Cardinals would have beaten the Giants, and they'd be legitimate playoff contenders at 6-6. Against Dallas, LaRod Stephens-Howling scored his second receiving TD of over 50 yards this season. Stephens-Howling has eight catches.

17. Miami Dolphins [18] — Another team that started slowly, but has won four of its last five — including three by 20 points or more. Matt Moore is playing at a high level, and the defense has rebounded in a big way from its Week 1 embarrassment against the Patriots. Only the 49ers, Texans, Ravens, and Steelers have allowed fewer points this season than Miami.

18. New York Giants [17] — In the last month, they've played the Packers, 49ers, Saints, and Patriots. Wow. They've lost four in a row (against three great teams, and the Eagles) and they rank 29th in yards allowed. Eli Manning is having a career year, and Victor Cruz continues to impress, but the Giants can't keep losing shootouts. They've been more successful with a ball control, running-and-defense model. I guess that's tough when your defense is playing like this.

19. Seattle Seahawks [24] — Three wins in their last four, including an upset of the Ravens and pretty easy victories over the Rams and Eagles. A week ago, television networks were still listing the 4-7 Eagles and Seahawks among their "in the hunt" teams. Even though all the 7-4 and 6-5 teams lost on Sunday, I didn't see anyone list the 5-7 Seahawks this week. Media politics.

20. Oakland Raiders [13] — Dropped seven places this week because (1) they got routed by Miami, and (2) last week's win over the Bears looks a lot less impressive this week. The Raiders scored a pair of garbage time touchdowns when they were already down 34-0, but the offense just got stifled this week. We've been hearing rumors for weeks now of Darren McFadden's return, and hopefully that's coming very soon now.

21. San Diego Chargers [26] — Games like Monday night's are why fans see San Diego as such a frustrating, disappointing team. At their best, the Chargers can hang with anyone. They looked good in close losses to the Patriots and Packers, and they ran all over Jacksonville this week. So where was that team for the last month? Where was it for close losses to average teams like the Jets and Chiefs and Raiders and Broncos? Playing up to their potential, the Chargers could wreck most of those opponents.

Maybe I'm being too harsh. The Chargers had several significant players return from injury, and that surely made a difference. Throwing to Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, and Malcom Floyd, Philip Rivers looked much more comfortable than in recent weeks. But we know the Chargers can play with a lead. What I'd really like to see them do is handle adversity.

22. Philadelphia Eagles [19] — Don't believe what NFL Network says about this team. On the pre-game show, Michael Irvin claimed that the Eagles were "in the top 10 in every major offensive category." However, they were 14th in points, which I thought was a major category. They were 11th in passing yards, which seems pretty major. They ranked 11th in offensive touchdowns. They were also outside the top 10 in several other categories I think of as major, but which you probably could argue are not. Still, what Irvin said was clearly false.

Later, Brad Nessler mentioned that "only Bud Grant and Jeff Fisher have won more games without winning a championship" than Andy Reid. I bet you can almost immediately think of at least one other coach with more wins and no rings. Here are all the head coaches with more regular-season wins than Reid, and no championship: Marty Schottenheimer, Dan Reeves, Chuck Knox, Bud Grant, Marv Levy, Jeff Fisher, and Jim Mora, Sr. That's seven coaches, not two. I'm sure Nessler wasn't intentionally lying (though it's mind-boggling that he didn't think of Schottenheimer, at least), but who on earth gave him that stat? I actually wondered if Nessler meant post-season games, but that's not true, either. That list is Reeves, Levy, and Grant (and not Fisher).

Fact-checking is a basic tenet of journalism, maybe the most basic. Errors should be rare and promptly corrected. I don't think I'm being unreasonable here. If you give your audience a statistic, we should be able to trust that it is true. Right now, NFL Network fails that test. (My favorite NFL Network falsehood is still Sterling Sharpe speaking about Andre Johnson last year. The "Marty Schottenheimer didn't exist" stat on Thursday would probably be second.)

23. Buffalo Bills [22] — Fifth straight loss. This doesn't even seem like the same team that started 3-0 and beat the Patriots. Most notably, the Bills aren't scoring the way they did early in the season. Through Week 6, Buffalo averaged 31.3 points per game, topping 30 four times and never scoring less than 20. In the six games since their bye, the Bills have averaged 15.0 ppg and haven't scored more than 24 in any contest. It's tough to keep winning when your scoring average gets sliced in half. C.J. Spiller gained 80 of his 83 rushing yards against Tennessee in the first half.

24. Carolina Panthers [29] — Went 2-1 on their three-game road trip, breaking a streak of 12 consecutive road losses dating to the 2009 season. The last time a quarterback led the NFL in rushing touchdowns was 1950 (Johnny Lujack), though Daryle Lamonica did tie for the AFL lead in 1964. Right now, Cam Newton leads the league, with 13 rushing scores.

Following his third TD, Newton handed the ball to a 16-year-old Panthers fan, Katie Brown. That's great, one of those gestures where a pro athlete can do something simple that's incredibly meaningful to fans. Except that the Panthers reclaimed the ball so they could send it to the Hall of Fame. Look, no one appreciates the history of the NFL more than I do. But you can't go into the stands and ask a kid to return the ball a player just gave her. It's just a ball. Most single-season rushing QBs by a quarterback isn't a terribly significant record, anyway, but even it were, the fans are the ones who make this league possible, and it is appalling that anyone thought it was okay to ask Katie to return Newton's gift to her. What incredibly misplaced priorities. That's not just tone-deaf, it's sickening.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [21] — Couldn't run at all in Week 13, with backup QB Josh Johnson leading the team (45 yards), and couldn't stop Cam Newton. Lost in their ugly defeat was the fine day from kicker Connor Barth, who made four field goals of at least 44 yards, with no misses. Rookie Da'Quan Bowers had a career day, as well, with 5 tackles for a loss.

26. Kansas City Chiefs [30] — Won on a freak play, a Hail Mary that Brian Urlacher deflected straight into the hands of Dexter McCluster. But credit the defense, which held the Bears to 181 yards and 0/11 on third-down conversions. Chicago QB Caleb Hanie finished with 7 sacks, 3 interceptions, and a 23.8 passer rating. Justin Houston, who had no sacks in the first 12 weeks, got three against the Bears. Tamba Hali finally accounts for less than half of the team's total sacks this season (8/20).

27. Washington Redskins [23] — The team has looked okay the last two weeks, but now loses two of its best offensive players, left tackle Trent Williams and tight end Fred Davis, to four-game suspensions related to positive tests for marijuana. The Jets' go-ahead score in the fourth quarter was set up by Graham Gano's second short kickoff, fielded at the 20 and returned to midfield. I don't understand why NFL coaches try to avoid kickoff returners. Pick any kickoff returner from the last 30 years, the best guy you can think of. Got one? Guess what percentage of his kickoffs went back for touchdowns. Here's a sampling:

Devin Hester: 3.6%
Leon Washington: 3.4%
Josh Cribbs: 2.4%
Deion Sanders: 1.9%
Mel Gray: 1.4%
Dante Hall: 1.4%
Eric Metcalf: 0.7%
Brian Mitchell: 0.7%

Let's say Joe McKnight returns 3% of kickoffs for touchdowns. When the Jets start at the 50-yard line, what percentage of the time do you think they score? Is it higher than three? Most of those percentages above were compiled when teams had to kick off from their own 30-yard line, even. You kick off from the 35 now, just boot it deep and get a touchback! This team can't stay out of its own way. Seriously, you have to be stupid to kick away from the returner on kickoffs. Punts are different.

28. Minnesota Vikings [28] — Only the Colts have allowed more points this season than Minnesota (330). The Vikings have only held one opponent — the Cardinals in Week 5 — below 20 points. Nice job, though, by Chris Kluwe, Eric Frampton, and Jamarca Sanford to pin the Broncos at their own 1-yard line, setting up Jared Allen's safety in the first quarter. Don't get too caught up in the stats: Christian Ponder passed for 381 yards on Sunday, but he also committed three turnovers. Percy Harvin, with no receiving touchdowns in the first nine games, has scored 4 TDs in the last three weeks.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars [25] — I don't mean to beat up on Blaine Gabbert. He's 9 years old, and maybe he has a bright future in the NFL. Right now, he shouldn't be playing. His coaches don't seem to trust him, and it's not apparent that really trusts himself. With 5:36 left in the game, ESPN flashed a graphic showing that 153 of Jacksonville's 188 passing yards had come after the catch. Either let the kid throw downfield or replace him with someone who can.

30. Cleveland Browns [27] — Rank 28th in offensive yardage. The Browns have ranked 27th or worse in total offense every year since 2008, and eight of the last nine if they keep this up for another four weeks.

31. St. Louis Rams [31] — Third shutout loss in the last three seasons, also their second recent shutout loss to the Niners. The Rams were on the wrong side of a 35-0 San Francisco win in Week 4 of 2009. You know what's amazing? This team has a pretty good running back.

32. Indianapolis Colts [32] — Orlovsky threw for 280 of his 353 yards in the second half, when the game was already out of reach. I think this season is a subtle plot to drive Reggie Wayne mad. First Peyton Manning goes down, and every time a new QB comes in, the new guy decides Pierre Garçon is his favorite target. Last week, Wayne finally had a big game connecting with Curtis Painter, and this week Painter got benched. The Colts' remaining opponents are a combined 28-20. I think they have a real shot at 0-16.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:49 PM | Comments (2)

Adventures in Trendsetting

Is the shine even off the words printed on the latest version of the NBA's collective bargaining agreement? It's been about a week since the announcement of a tentative agreement, but it appears that the players are making up for lost time. Those that flew across the Atlantic are coming back to the States. The release of a 66-game schedule will happen Tuesday night. And local gyms are full of professional ballers gearing up their game.

While all of this is promising to me, there is something that leaves me a little irked. With a delayed start to the season comes a delayed start to the free agency process. Teams are furiously lining up to select the next jagged piece that fits into their championship puzzle. Tyson Chandler, Mike Dunleavy, Shane Battier, and David West should be the focus of this 2011 class (underwhelming that it is).

However, it's West's New Orleans teammate that's stealing the spotlight. Hands down, Chris Paul is one of the top three point guards in the league. For my money, he's number one. Now he allegedly wants to be the top guy on the basketball's biggest stage. It's reported that the six-year vet is seeking to join Carmelo Anthony and Amar'e Stoudemire as a New York Knick. Problem ... Paul's still got a year left on his contract.

That's where the irksome part comes in.

It's one thing to be sick of a location and want new surroundings. I get that. There's no real problem with wanting to seek a better opportunity to win a ring. I understand. And using leverage against your own team to get that ultimate payday? It's all part of the game.

Where the line becomes visible (to me, anyway) is picking your eventual dance partner and inevitably turning the other suitors into wallflowers. There's no doubt that Paul was drafted into a difficult situation that grew even worse before he could make his professional debut. Being one of the faces of the city post-Katrina has been more than admirable. He deserves his payday and his ring. But just because you get thrown in a bad situation doesn't mean you can always trade your way out of it.

Thus, I welcome you back into the new age of modern basketball. It's a world where the stars call the shots and, no matter how entertaining it becomes, that might not best thing for the Association. I know this isn't a new phenomenon. Heck, we see in not just on the hardwood, but in other sports and in other forms.

In baseball, the term "no-trade clause" seems to have grown into a more familiar part of the lexicon. Whether it's a free agent making a move, or a minor leaguer jumping up to the Bigs with his original team, there appears to be more light shined on the actuality that said player won't go to "X,Y,Z, or anyone." While this could earn loyalty points with some fans, this procedure might also hurt the team seeking to rebuild or retool. (The KC Royals that I root for might have dealt with this situation before dealing pitcher Zack Greinke.)

For football, it's all about the "holdout." Tennessee Titan running back Chris Johnson proved this again over the summer when he didn't show up for training camp until receiving his six-year, $53.5 million contract. And C.J. won't be the last to use this tactic, either. With the NFL's CBA solidly locked in for the next decade, we should expect more late arrivals for two-a-days in the July heat.

But getting back to hoops, I can now see this request as another stop passed by a bullet train that's gathering steam. LeBron James kept our collective breath baited with his free agency tour of 2010, only to leave it bitter after his "Decision." Then Carmelo Anthony topped 'Bron. CP3's dawg and hopeful Knick teammate got the wheels rotating faster after giving Denver the option to trade him or lose him. The Nuggets had to get something out of the deal, and 'Melo got to shine on Broadway.

I wonder if Paul might be setting a new standard, though. Could this be the start of a trend that will truly turn the NBA into a "star-driven" league? Can Kevin Love tell the Timberwolves that it's the Lake Show or bust? Does Monta Ellis decide he can only help Derrick Rose in Chicago? Will John Wall say that he only wear Celtic green-colored glasses?

Welcome to the new NBA ... Where Bright Lights Happen.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 3:33 PM | Comments (0)

December 5, 2011

LSU/Alabama II: The BCS Lump of Coal

Every January, store shelves are littered with the leftover goods Christmas shoppers did not want. These perfectly good toys and gadgets are available at huge post-holiday discounts, but they are not the cutting edge electronics and talking puppets that were desired enough to make it under someone's tree. Maybe they were not packaged sleekly enough, or perhaps the good little girls and boys had gotten one for a birthday a few months back. For whatever reason, nobody wanted them.

In that vein, this season's BCS championship offers us an early January sale on LSU/Alabama whether we want it or not.

Before going any further, let's make one thing clear: LSU won the 2011 regular season in a landslide. The gulf between the Tigers and whichever team you like second best is wider than a nose tackle after Thanksgiving dinner. While the debate over Alabama or Oklahoma State at No. 2 will dominate the days to come, there is a more pressing question looming over this season's BCS: why even have it?

Many college football fans approach each season with a strange sense of mysticism. To some, the true "best team" can be deduced over the course of the year (often by the nausea-inducingly smug "eyeball test"). Each game is like a new reactive experiment in an alchemist's lab by which he learns more about the true nature of the materials involved. You will see conveniently ambiguous terms like "gritty" and "winner" thrown around in these discussions. But the most aggravating of these discussions come at the end of each season, when revisionist historians look back at the year and pick out the pieces of evidence that prove the newly crowned champs had the mettle all along. We could have identified it, they imply, if only we had searched a little harder and smarter for it.

This, of course, is an affront to science, logic, and anyone with enough intelligence to have it insulted. The truth is each game is a single trial of probabilities, a spin of the roulette wheel or a roll of the dice if you prefer. There is a certain probability each team will win at the start of each game, and those probabilities are reshuffled with each play. The final outcomes are only cemented when the final whistle blows and can never truly be known through any kind of witchcraft.

We can only add new evidence to our profiles of each team as they demonstrate them each week. If LSU loses to Alabama on January 9, does it mean we are wrong at this moment (and most of the moments throughout this season) in feeling strongly that the Tigers are the best team in 2011? Of course not.

This is the great problem with the underlying philosophy of the BCS. The college football season is set up with two filtering mechanisms to determine a champion. The first is the wide swath of the regular season, by which we are charged with narrowing the field all the way down to the top two. This slotting of the BCS top two eliminates 98.3% of the field (118 out of 120 teams). By comparison, the 68-team March Madness field only eliminates 80.1% of Division 1 basketball teams from title contention. If the NCAA tournament were to parallel the reductive scope of the BCS Championship Game, it would be a tournament of fewer than six teams. But it gets worse still.

The college football season, without question, provides the smallest annual sample of data for each team than any other sport, amateur or professional. At the highest extreme, Major League Baseball teams play 162 games that are truly up for grabs upon first pitch. Those teams may ebb and flow through a season, and sometimes they even need a 163rd game to separate themselves, but by early October, nobody can say we are not sure how good the Yankees or Dodgers are.

Even college football's professional big brother offers about 100% more real tests for its teams before the postseason. With the relatively uncommon exception of games where teams have clinched their playoff seeds, NFL games are overwhelmingly competitive and unpredictable. There is a reason the cliché "any given Sunday" uses the seventh day, not the sixth.

College football teams only play 12 games with perhaps a conference title game for a baker's dozen. But look more closely at what those games mean.

LSU played an admirably competitive schedule, including an un-SEC-like two non-league games against BCS-conference foes that were legitimately losable. And yet, of its 13 games, how many taught us anything about the Tigers?

Two of those games were against Northwestern State and Western Kentucky. Even the worst LSU teams would win those games. The Tigers also notched easy wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, who combined to go 12-24. That leaves us with eight games against bowl-eligible teams, and even some of those games (Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn each lost at least five games) do not really separate LSU from anyone in the top 20.

All of this should remind us as college football fans that we really never know much about squads of 18-22-year-olds playing a half-dozen meaningful games a year. If Alabama beats LSU, does that nullify everything that has gone on since early September? What if they played a third time after that in February? Sometimes one game is just a game.

The BCS itself is not flawed — it does exactly what it is supposed to do. We may split hairs over the Alabama/Oklahoma State du jour, but picking the best two teams out of 120 is a very demanding task. Without the BCS, we would not have LSU/Alabama, LSU/Oklahoma State, or nearly any other BCS championship game since 1998, and for that, we are better off now than we were before this system.

But the logic that the college presidents based the BCS on is not only flawed, it is cracked and rotten. We need to give teams a vehicle to establish superiority on the field, not because voters or computers make bad choices, but because the game just does not lend itself to judgment like figure-skating or boxing. Not to mention, it would be a ton of fun.

Until then, we can only dream of holiday seasons to come when we get shiny new interregional matchups and suped-up contrasts of style. Because this January, the shelves of the BCS store will only have the gift nobody wanted to give or receive.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:30 AM | Comments (5)

December 3, 2011

Sports Central 2011 Pro Bowl Ballot

Pro Bowl voting has been open for over a month, but now every team has played most of its schedule, so it's finally reasonable to vote for each conference's representatives. Here's a look at my ballot, with AFC players listed first. I didn't vote for anyone who has been placed on injured reserve.

The league has not done a good job of keeping the ballot updated. At quarterback, for instance, you can still vote for John Beck, Matt Cassel, Jay Cutler, and Matt Schaub. A ballot-stuffing campaign for Beck would be hilarious, by the way. If you'd like to vote along as you read, you can do so here.

Quarterback

Tom Brady (NE), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT), Philip Rivers (SD); Aaron Rodgers (GB), Drew Brees (NO), Tony Romo (DAL)

Tough calls in both conferences, for different reasons. The AFC is incredibly weak after Brady and Big Ben. Actually, if you just go by stats, I'd say there are six or seven NFC QBs ahead of Ben, even: the three I chose, plus Eli Manning (NYG), Cam Newton (CAR), Matthew Stafford (DET), and maybe Matt Ryan (ATL). Rivers obviously is not having a good year; he's thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and he hasn't led his team to victory the way he did in seasons past. But with alternatives like Andy Dalton (CIN), Matt Hasselbeck (TEN), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF), I think Rivers measures up. Besides, I'd rather go with a great player having a bad year than a mediocre or unproven player doing a little better than expected. I'm still ashamed of the year I voted for David Carr.

Romo was a very close call over Manning and Newton. Eli has passed for the most yards of the three. Romo has the most TDs, fewest INTs, and best passer rating. If you include rushing, Newton takes over the lead in yards and TDs, and what he's done to elevate last year's horrific Carolina offense is remarkable. I know everyone thinks Romo is doomed to crash and burn in December, but Eli is just as bad. Per-game averages:

With the Giants' rough remaining schedule, I suspect Romo is going to look better a month from now than Eli. That said, Manning and Newton are both very reasonable choices.

Running Back

Ray Rice (BAL), Arian Foster (HOU), Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC); LeSean McCoy (PHI), Matt Forte (CHI), Adrian Peterson (MIN)

Just a few weeks ago, this position on the ballot was full of agonizing decisions. Now, injuries have cleared the way for much easier choices. The AFC ballot seems obvious to me at this point, but in the NFC, potential controversy remains in the form of Michael Turner (ATL), Frank Gore (SF), DeMarco Murray (DAL), and Marshawn Lynch (SEA). Peterson's talent is unmatched, but if his ankle injury is serious, you could certainly slide one of those other guys in. There's an argument to be made for Darren Sproles (NO), too, but I just don't think he's as important to his offense as the other RBs. Sproles has 59 carries, about five per game.

Wide Receiver

Wes Welker (NE), Mike Wallace (PIT), Brandon Marshall (MIA), A.J. Green (CIN); Calvin Johnson (DET), Steve Smith (CAR), Greg Jennings (GB), Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)

Really tough calls at this position. Marshall only has 3 touchdowns, and Green is just eighth in the AFC in receiving yards. Meanwhile, Dwayne Bowe (KC) and Vincent Jackson (SD) are both having fine seasons, and Eric Decker (DEN) is the only receiving threat in Denver's run-heavy offense, with 8 TDs, tied for the highest of any AFC wide receiver. But Green's production and play-making have stood out in a way that the others haven't.

Victor Cruz (NYG) is having a breakout season, third in the NFC in receiving yards, but he's not on the ballot. This will a theme for the Giants, by the way. Jordy Nelson (GB) has stats comparable to his teammate Jennings. But Fitzgerald has continued to produce like a star, even without quality quarterbacking, and Jennings is still the first player Aaron Rodgers looks for. The toughest omission may have been Roddy White (ATL), but he's been up-and-down, had some drops. Still, tough decisions here.

Fullback

Vonta Leach (BAL); John Kuhn (GB)

In an era of disappearing playing time for fullbacks, Leach remains an important player. Kuhn has scored 6 TDs.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski (NE), Heath Miller (PIT); Jimmy Graham (NO), Tony Gonzalez (ATL)

Graham isn't much of a blocker, but the way he's played this year, he would probably make this list as a wide receiver, and he's extremely valuable to the Saints. Jason Witten (DAL) and the ageless Gonzalez are the most consistent and reliable TEs in the game today. Gronkowski is a tremendous weapon in New England's passing game, and a legit blocker, probably the best tight end in the NFL this season. Miller finally makes my ballot after years of near-misses.

Offensive Tackle

Michael Roos (TEN), Andrew Whitworth (CIN), Matt Light (NE); Jason Peters (PHI), Jordan Gross (CAR), Kareem McKenzie (NYG)

Peters missed two games, but he's the best, a truly dominant tackle. Roos has been great when I've seen him, and the Titans have allowed fewer hits on the QB (39) than any other team. Light isn't the player he was a few years ago, but he's a solid anchor at left tackle. I will freely admit that there's more guesswork at the offensive line positions than I'm comfortable with. Some of these guys I've only seen once, and it's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about offensive linemen from stats. I'd particularly like more looks at Eric Winston (HOU), Ryan Clady (DEN), and Charlie Johnson (MIN). Everyone knows how the Colts have fallen apart without Peyton Manning, but they also lost Johnson, who last year started 15 games at left tackle. If you insist on including right tackles, vote for Winston instead of Light.

Offensive Guard

Mike Brisiel (HOU), Andy Levitre (BUF), Cooper Carlisle (OAK); Jahri Evans (NO), Carl Nicks (NO), Mike Iupati (SF)

Evans and Nicks are rightly lauded as the premier guard tandem in the NFL. Other than those two, the best guards of 2010 are struggling a little bit this year. Logan Mankins (NE) doesn't look like himself, and isn't clearly outplaying 12th-year vet Brian Waters (NE). Chris Snee (NYG) still makes some dynamite plays, but he's making more mistakes than usual. Josh Sitton (GB) was injured on Thanksgiving and is likely to miss some time, but he wasn't blowing me away before that, either. Green Bay's line is solid, not exceptional. That offense excels because of the coaches, the receivers, and Aaron Rodgers. I'd like to see more of Stefen Wisniewski (OAK).

Center

Nick Mangold (NYJ), Chris Myers (HOU); Dominic Raiola (DET), Ryan Kalil (CAR)

Mangold is probably a little over-hyped at this point, but he is legitimately a very good center. The other spot in the AFC was a tough call, with Myers edging Kyle Cook (CIN) and Brad Meester (JAC) on my ballot. That might change if my local CBS affiliate ever decides to air the Bengals and Jaguars in my area. What do you people have against big cats, anyway? I'm not allowed to have a satellite dish where I live, so I can't get Sunday Ticket and I usually see a lot of the NFC East, plus the Patriots, Jets, Ravens, and Steelers. I've seen those eight teams more than the other 24 combined. I'm also interested in Jonathan Goodwin (SF), who came over from New Orleans in the offseason.

Defensive End

Cory Redding (BAL), Andre Carter (NE), Antonio Smith (HOU); Jared Allen (MIN), Julius Peppers (CHI), Chris Clemons (SEA)

Allen is a monster. He has 37 solo tackles, 13.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, 3 recoveries, 3 batted passes, and an interception. Known primarily as a pass-rusher, he's also sound on run defense. Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG), the Giants' one standout on defense, would be an easy choice, except that ... he's not on ballot. Pierre-Paul leads all NFC linemen in tackles, he's batted four passes, and he has more sacks than Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck combined. Oh well. Instead, I've got Clemons, a freelancer who plays more like a 3-4 OLB, as a close call over ... well, a lot of guys. To save space, I'll just list them in alphabetical order: Cliff Avril (DET), Jason Babin (PHI), Trent Cole (PHI), Chris Long (STL), Kyle Vanden Bosch (DET). If you prefer 3-4 DEs, you could vote for Stephen Bowen (WAS), Calais Campbell (ARI), or Adam Carriker (WAS) — or just focus on the AFC.

Last season, the Jets and Ravens listed their ends as DTs, so the AFC was really thin at this position. This year, I've got Redding, who pairs with Haloti Ngata and Terrence Cody to form the most dominant 3-4 defensive front in the game. The Ravens lead the AFC in sacks and opponents' rushing average. They're second or third in points allowed, yards allowed, and opponents' passer rating, and they lead the AFC in turnovers created. Carter leads all AFC linemen in sacks (9.0).

Defensive Tackle

Haloti Ngata (BAL), Geno Atkins (CIN), Tommy Kelly (OAK); Cullen Jenkins (PHI), Jay Ratliff (DAL), Justin Smith (SF)

Let's get this out of the way: Ndamukong Suh (DET) probably wouldn't have made my ballot even without his impending suspension for stomping on an opponent. He's played well this season, but he hasn't dominated the way he did as a rookie. B.J. Raji (GB) also has slipped a bit, but his old teammate Cullen Jenkins has been dominant in Philadelphia. I've seen quite a lot of the Eagles this season, and I believe Jenkins, Mike Patterson (PHI), and Trevor Laws (PHI) have more impact than the ends with the big sack numbers. Ratliff has probably created unrealistic expectations for himself at this point, but he remains a good player. I like Jonathan Babineaux (ATL) a lot, but he's missed some games.

Ngata is dominant, a playmaker. Kelly was a close call over his teammate Richard Seymour (OAK), though the Raiders could stand to improve their run defense. Vince Wilfork (NE), a standout in the past, is not playing at the same level this season and does not deserve your vote.

Inside Linebacker

Brian Cushing (HOU), D'Qwell Jackson (CLE); Patrick Willis (SF), Brian Urlacher (CHI)

You hate to do this, taking the big stars, Willis and Urlacher. But where else do you go? Lots of guys are having good seasons. I like Desmond Bishop (GB) and NaVorro Bowman (SF). I like London Fletcher (WAS) and James Laurinaitis (STL) and Sean Lee (DAL). None of them swing games like Urlacher and Willis. Those two are difference-makers. I guess Fletcher might be my third choice, even though he's like 80 years old. He leads the NFC in combined tackles, with 2 picks and 2 forced fumbles. He's also the captain of the 2nd-ranked defense in the conference. Only San Francisco has allowed fewer yards or fewer points than Washington.

Cushing is playing like he did as the Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2009. Last season, dealing with a four-game suspension, he was shuffled around and forced out of position by teammates' injuries. He's settled in this year, by far the leading tackler on the top-ranked defense in the NFL. Jackson's biggest game came in Week 1, but he gets the nod over Derrick Johnson (KC) and Karlos Dansby (MIA).

Outside Linebacker

Terrell Suggs (BAL), Tamba Hali (KC), Daryl Smith (JAC); DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Ryan Kerrigan (WAS), Clay Matthews III (GB)

Outside linebackers are so tough to compare, because there really are two distinct positions: pass rushers and space players. I've mostly selected pass rushers, because the best of them are true game-changers, impact players in a way the others usually aren't. There was one exception, Smith, who has transferred the skills he used as a middle linebacker to the outside, where's he quick to the ball, and one of the best pass defenders at his position. Lance Briggs (CHI) and Chad Greenway (MIN) are still good players, but neither is having his best season.

As for the rush guys, there are lots I like. Von Miller (DEN) leads the AFC in sacks, with 10.5. James Harrison (PIT) and LaMarr Woodley (PIT) are monsters when they're healthy. Connor Barwin (HOU) and Kamerion Wimbley (OAK) have had nice years. But Suggs is probably the best player on Baltimore's defense this year, and Hali is just doing it by himself in Kansas City, where he has more sacks than the rest of the team combined. Ware leads the NFL in sacks (14.5), Kerrigan has forced 4 fumbles and is outplaying his teammate Brian Orakpo (WAS), and Matthews has made a lot of positive plays that don't show up in the sack column.

Cornerback

Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Johnathan Joseph (HOU), Ike Taylor (PIT); Tramon Williams (GB), Carlos Rogers (SF), Chris Houston (DET)

Revis Island isn't as desolate as it was a couple years ago, but he's still the biggest factor in the Jets' pass defense, which ranks third in the NFL in opponent passer rating (71.8). Ron Jaworski praised Joseph, on Monday night, as perhaps the best free agent acquisition of 2011. I don't know if he was actually the best, but he's certainly on the short list. Of course, Rogers — second in the NFC in interceptions — was also a free agent pickup, and he's been a standout for the top scoring defense in the NFL.

Taylor was the only Pittsburgh defender to make my ballot this year. Casey Hampton, James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, and Brett Keisel have all missed multiple games, Troy Polamalu's had two concussions, and the Steelers are tied for last in the NFL in takeaways. But what's a Pro Bowl defense without some black and gold? Taylor has been the team's most consistent defensive player this season. The same can't be said of the league INT leaders, Kyle Arrington (NE) and Charles Woodson (GB). They've obviously made some positive plays, but they get beat too often. Out of those two, I prefer Woodson, who really plays more like a safety now, does a lot of freelancing, but puts himself around the ball.

The other guys I really like in the AFC are Brandon Flowers (KC) and Lardarius Webb (BAL). In the NFC, Brent Grimes (ATL) and Charles Tillman (CHI). Peanut gives up some plays because he's so aggressive, but the man is a turnover machine: 3 forced fumbles, 2 recoveries, and an interception return for a touchdown. Chris Houston leads the NFC in interception return yardage (184), with two picks returned for touchdowns.

Strong Safety

George Wilson (BUF); Roman Harper (NO)

Normally, you give the AFC to Troy Polamalu (PIT). Since 2005, Polamalu has played at least 3/4 of the season four times, and I've chosen him on my Pro Bowl ballot in three of them. He doesn't look like himself this year. Maybe it's the head injuries. Maybe it's age. Maybe it's just an off year. He still flies around like a crazy person, but this season he often seems to get there a step late. Troy has 44 solo tackles, 1 sack, no interceptions. Those aren't bad numbers, but they reflect his level of play this season, which is more like above average than exceptional.

I prefer Yeremiah Bell (MIA), Tyvon Branch (OAK), Dawan Landry (JAC), and especially Wilson. He missed the last two games with a neck injury, but still leads all AFC safeties, with 60 solo tackles. Wilson also has 4 interceptions and a forced fumble, and he's Buffalo's leader on defense. The NFC candidates are less exceptional. Harper has 6.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a ton of tackles, and he gets my vote mostly for the big plays. I also like Charlie Peprah (GB), who has 4 INTs, Kam Chancellor (SEA), who's deflected or picked 11 passes, and Donte Whitner (SF), another new addition to the formidable 49er defense.

Free Safety

Ed Reed (BAL); Dashon Goldson (SF)

Where have all the great free safeties gone? Reed is a stud, of course, but he's not having a particularly big year. Eric Weddle (SD), a consistently good player in the San Diego secondary, this season has the best numbers of his career, including 5 INTs and 7 other pass deflections.

Morgan Burnett (GB), has probably the best numbers of any NFC player at this position: 71 tkl, 7 PD, 3 INT, 2 FF, FR, sack. But I just don't see him as a standout on that defense, which ranks 30th in yards allowed. He's made a lot of plays because a lot of plays have gone toward him. Earl Thomas (SEA) has had his moments, and he's got a lot of tackles. My not entirely enthusiastic choice is Goldson, who has 3 interceptions, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery.

Kicker

Sebastian Janikowski (OAK); Robbie Gould (CHI)

Tough calls in both conferences. Janikowski missed a game due to hamstring problem, and he was gimpy in several others, most noticeably on kickoffs. But he blasted six field goals last week, and he's connected from 50 yards or beyond five times this season, including a record-tying 63-yarder in Week 1. Slightly less exceptional, but more consistent for health reasons, is Josh Scobee (JAC), who's also made five 50-yarders. Gould edges out Mason Crosby (GB), who's actually a little tough to evaluate because the Packers score so many touchdowns. Crosby is 46/46 on PATs.

Punter

Zoltan Mesko (NE); Sav Rocca (WAS)

Mesko has a lot working against him. He plays for a good team, so he often has to shorten punts to avoid the end zone, hurting his average. He plays in chilly New England, and hasn't had a single game in a dome this season. Yet he has the second-best net average in the AFC, behind only Britton Colquitt (DEN), who gets a substantial boost from the thin air at Mile High. In the NFC, I couldn't decide among Thomas Morstead (NO), Adam Podlesh (CHI), and Rocca. So I copped out and went with Rocca because I've never chosen him before. I've never voted for Morstead or Podlesh, either, but Rocca has been a very good punter for several years, and this is my version of a make-up call. Rocca is the best in the NFC at pinning opponents deep, with 21 kicks down inside the 20, and only one touchback.

Kick Returner

Jacoby Jones (HOU); Devin Hester (CHI)

Normally, you'd expect the NFC to be a blowout. Randall Cobb (GB) has scored on both kickoff and punt returns, with great averages. Slam dunk, right? But Ted Ginn (SF) also has KR and PR TDs, and he hasn't fumbled all year, whereas Cobb has dropped three. But Devin Hester has supplemented a KR TD with his usual nastiness on PRs: NFL-best 19.4 average, 2 TDs, only 7 fair catches. But Patrick Peterson (ARI) has a record-tying four punt return TDs, including a game-winner in overtime. I went with Hester, in an awfully close call over Peterson and Ginn.

No one in the AFC has had that kind of success, so I actually went with a pure punt returner. Jones has four punt returns of at least 40 yards, tied with Peterson for most in the NFL. He returns almost everything (only 5 FC), and scored on a 79-yard return. Marc Mariani (TEN) is probably the best AFC returner who does both kickoffs and punts.

Special Teamer

Kassim Osgood (JAC); Corey Graham (CHI)

As always, many of my favorite special teamers don't appear on the ballot. Osgood and Graham, though, consistently help their teams. My NFC special teams ballot was almost a sweep for the Bears: Gould, Hester, Graham, and very nearly Podlesh. I should go back and change my vote from Rocca to Podlesh just for the angle.

The AFC team I voted for most this season was the Texans (7), followed by the Patriots and Ravens (6). In the NFC, the Bears' special teamers edged them ahead (6) of the Packers, 49ers, and Saints (5). The best team I didn't vote for was the 6-5 Broncos. Decker and Clady were close, and Von Miller was very close. On the 2010 ballot, my leading team was the Chargers (7), with five each from the Packers and Steelers.

2011 Midseason Awards

Offensive Player of the Year — Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Defensive Player of the Year — Jared Allen (MIN)
MVP — Aaron Rodgers (GB)
Coach of the Year — Mike McCarthy (GB)
Assistant — Wade Phillips (HOU)
Rookie of the Year — Von Miller (DEN)

This is my 10th season picking a Pro Bowl team for Sports Central. Either to celebrate my favorite players, or reveal my own biases, here's an all-star team of the guys I've chosen most often, 2002-11:

QB: Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, 7 each
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson, 5 each
FB: Tony Richardson, 3
WR: Torry Holt, 5
WR: Andre Johnson, 5
TE: Tony Gonzalez, 8
C: Olin Kreutz, 3
G: Steve Hutchinson, 6
G: Alan Faneca, 5
OT: Matt Light, 5
OT: Willie Roaf, Walter Jones, and Ryan Diem, 3 each

DT: five players tied, 3 each
DE: Julius Peppers, 5
DE: Jared Allen, 5
OLB: DeMarcus Ware, 6
OLB: Derrick Brooks, Lance Briggs, James Harrison, 4 each
ILB: Brian Urlacher, 4
CB: Ronde Barber, 6
CB: Asante Samuel, 4
S: Ed Reed, 4
S: Darren Sharper and Troy Polamalu, 3 each

K: John Kasay, 3
P: Shane Lechler and Mitch Berger, 3 each
KR: Dante Hall, 3

Posted by Brad Oremland at 6:24 PM | Comments (0)

December 2, 2011

Are The Heat Too Hot For Miami?

At times last season, the Miami Heat lost themselves. But really could you blame them?

LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh had each gotten used to hearing cheers when they made a highlight play; at home and on the road.

But once they decided to team up and chase the championship, that all changed.

The fans still came out in record numbers to see them, but they were there to jeer, not cheer. I was excited to watch each regular season game because it had a playoff atmosphere to it. The media scrutiny was intense. Every loss was followed with stories of a possible coaching change and player regretting playing together. It was like a circus coming to town.

Fans were relentless in their hatred for the team because they felt James was taking the easy way out by leaving his home team, the Cleveland Cavaliers, and taking his talents to South Beach.

If I was in James' shoes I would have left the Cavs, too. After winning back-to-back MVP awards and taking the franchise to the NBA Finals two times, the only thing he has left to accomplish in his career is winning a title.

Do you honestly believe he would have accomplished that in Cleveland with many Eastern Conference teams getting stronger? I didn't think you did.

For James, it's no longer about money. He has enough to buy the homes, cars, and diamonds. Money can't buy the ring that he's after.

Still, others didn't agree with his decision to leave. That was clear by the insult-filled open letter that Cavs owner Dan Gilbert released shortly after the decision was made. Gilbert was clearly lashing out out of anger because he just lost arguably the best player in the league and the man that brought media and money to Cleveland.

But Gilbert's letter probably read like a love letter compared to the treatment the Heat received on road trips. Opposing fans and players took so many shots at the team that the Heat decided to embrace the bad guy role they were given and to run with it.

I, for one, enjoyed the way the Heat engulfed teams on the defensive end before racing up the court for high-flying dunks.

Throughout the year, I watched closely as they went through struggles early before regaining their footing and going on multiple win streaks. I took notice of how James and Wade struggled late in games deciding who would take the last shot and how they would attack it. But when the playoffs started, I felt like they had more than enough talent to win it all.

The Heat scorched through the first two rounds and finished off the top-seeded Chicago Bulls in an electrifying comeback to reach the finals.

After that series, you couldn't have told me the Dallas Mavericks would be able to beat the Miami Heat. After watching the debates and seeing the "experts" picking the Heat, too, I almost felt like it was over before the series began.

Yet the Mavericks ended up winning the Finals and celebrating on Miami's home court, leaving the Miami group of superstars left wondering what happened.

"We wanted to win to spite people. I believe that's the reason we didn't win a championship," Wade said.

I don't know if that's the reason, but I do know that Heat are more hungry now than ever and once the NBA lockout ends, they will be back ready to take another run at the title. This time for the right reasons.

Posted by Megan Brown at 11:16 AM | Comments (0)

December 1, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 13

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Philadelphia @ Seattle (+2½)

The Eagles were all but eliminated from the playoff race after a humbling 38-20 loss to the Patriots last Sunday in Philadelphia. Philly is 4-7, 1-5 at home, and three games behind the Cowboys in the NFC East.

"Philly fans are calling for my head," Andy Reid said. "I'm not going anywhere. Unlike opponents, Eagles fans don't always get their way in Philadelphia. Otherwise, Dave 'The Hammer' Schultz would be head coach. And Dr. J would be quarterback. And DeSean Jackson would have hands of glue, and not stone."

The Seahawks had their two-game winning streak snapped, losing to the Redskins 23-17 in Seattle. Seattle is still mathematically alive in the NFC West race due to San Francisco's loss to Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.

"Could this be my chance to get revenge on Vince Young?" Pete Carroll said. "Young famously beat me and my USC Trojans in the 2006 national championship game. I don't know which hurt worse: losing a national championship because of Young, or losing a title because of Reggie Bush.

"Despite our troubles this year, I see a lot of similarities between this team and last year's NFC West championship team. One, we'll have a losing record. And two, we'll be 'home' for the playoffs."

Neither the Eagles nor the Seahawks have anything for which to play. They may have feathers on their helmets, but there are none in their caps.

Seattle wins, 19-17.

Oakland @ Miami (-1)

The Dolphins took the Cowboys to the limit on Thanksgiving afternoon, falling on Dan Bailey's 28-yard field goal as time expired. The loss ended Miami's three-game winning streak, and left them 3-8.

"I think the Cowboys are overrated," Tony Sparano said, "and not much different than the team we've already played this year. I firmly believe if we played Dallas 10 times, we'd win three, after losing the first seven."

The Raiders beat the Jay Cutler-less Bears 25-20 last week, maintaining their lead in the AFC West. The Raiders lead the surging Broncos by one game with a tough road trip to Miami upcoming.

"We'd like to keep Tim Tebow and the Broncos at arm's length," Carson Palmer said. "God forbid the Broncos win the AFC West and make the playoffs. Then we'd never hear the end of it, because there must be a god.

"Now I understand the Chargers and Nick Novak are making a case for becoming the AFC West's bad boys. That's our title. We, not you, Nick Novak, are 'No. 1.'"

Miami wins, 20-19.

Kansas City @ Chicago (-9)

In their first game without Jay Cutler, the Bears lost 25-20 in Oakland, as backup quarterback Caleb Hanie threw 3 interceptions. If Chicago is to secure a wild card playoff berth, they'll have to do it with Hanie in charge.

"I've made lemonade out of lemons before," offensive coordinator Mike Martz said. "And I can make 'do' out of 'doo doo.' You can't spell 'Caleb' without 'able.'"

Like the Bears, the Chiefs have quarterback issues. In the wake of Matt Cassell's hand injury, backup Tyler Palko has been error-prone.

"Not only has Palko been shaky, at best," Todd Haley said, "he is shaky, at his best. But help is on the way. Former Chicago Bear and Denver Bronco Kyle Orton might see some action. Orton can't escape the shadows of the most hated quarterback in the NFL, Jay Cutler, and the most loved quarterback in the NFL, Tim Tebow. That leaves Orton somewhere 'in between,' which perfectly describes his quarterbacking skills."

Before the game, the Chiefs get a pep talk from mini-Herman Edwards, who urges them to play bigger than themselves, and drink Coors Light.

The Chiefs hang tough early, but the Bears pull away late and win, 20-9.

Denver @ Minnesota (-3)

Tim Tebow is now 5-1 as a starter after the Broncos beat the Chargers 16-13 in overtime last week to remain one game behind the 7-4 Raiders in the AFC West. Tebow Fever continues to sweep the nation, mop up the competition, and clean up in jersey sales.

"Yet some people still insist," John Fox said, "on calling him a 'scrub.' Say what you will about Tebow, but he delivers, time and time again. Package delivery companies take note — endorsement opportunities abound. For example: 'UPS! He Did it Again!' Or, "FedEx: When it Absolutely, Positively Has to Be There on the Ground."

The Vikings will counter Tebow with rookie quarterback Christian Ponder, who is 1-4 as a starter.

"I'm more qualified than anyone," Ponder said, "to say I'm more 'Christian' than Tebow. And, as a traditional NFL passer, I'm also qualified to say that calling Tebow a 'passer' is a characterization of biblical distortions. But give the Denver coaching staff and Tebow credit. They've given him a play book he can work with. He's made their jobs a lot easier."

Can the Vikings figure out the Denver offense? Of course. Even a child could. But stopping it? That's different. It takes an adult. And Jared Allen is an adult. Allen wallops Tebow on a quarterback keeper out of the wishbone formation, leaving the Denver signal-caller woozy. Tebow sits for a few plays, but returns with a vengeance, as his "End of Daze" signifies the "End of Days" for the Vikings.

Denver wins, 24-16.

Tennessee @ Buffalo (-1½)

Tennessee beat the Buccaneers last week, 23-17, to remain two games behind the 8-3 Texans in the AFC South. Chris Johnson rushed for 190 yards on 23 carries, and the Titans will need a similar performance against the Bills.

"We've been waiting for Chris to pull his weight around here," Mike Munchak said. "If you would have told Johnson that 'slack' was a check, he would have 'picked it up' long ago.

"Now, we're in the same position Chris was during his holdout. This time, though, we're the ones saying 'We want more.'"

The Bills lost their fourth in a row, 28-24 to the Jets, but that was only the second-biggest story of the game. Bills receiver Stevie Johnson, after a second-quarter touchdown, celebrated by mocking Plaxico Burress' self-inflicted gun shot injury.

"I call that the 'Johnson aAnd Johnson' celebration," Johnson said. "That didn't hurt me in the groin, but it will hurt me in the wallet. I've since apologized to Burress. It takes a big man to say he's wrong. It takes balls to admit a mistake, and I think Burress can appreciate that more than anyone."

Tennessee wins, 27-24.

NY Jets @ Washington (+3)

Mark Sanchez threw for 4 touchdowns, a career-high, and the Jets beat the Bills, 28-24, to break a two-game losing streak. The Jets improved to 6-5, and may have to win out to have any chance in what is sure to be a competitive race for the AFC's wildcard spots.

"Rex Ryan knows how to push my buttons," Sanchez said. "And I know how to push his — with my toes. I take full responsibility for our turnaround. I gave Rex the silent treatment. That's exactly what this team needs — less talk."

The Redskins broke a six-game losing streak with a come-from-behind 23-17 win in Seattle. After a 3-1 start, the 'Skins are now 4-7, tied for last in the NFC East.

"Before the season's start," Rex Grossman said, "I predicted the Redskins would win the NFC East. I was wrong about that, but I was right about one thing, and that is that I'm unpredictable."

New York wins, 24-20.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-8)

The Pittsburgh offense was anything but impressive in a 13-9 win in Kansas City last Sunday night, but their defense came through, limiting the Chiefs to three field goals. Ben Roethlisberger was hampered by a broken right thumb, which is likely to bother him for the remainder of the year.

"The thumb is really sore," Roethlisberger said, "and there's very little that can be done to improve its condition. It's like the ring finger of a wife in a hypothetical sham marriage — you can put anything on it, but it doesn't change anything."

If the Bengals are to make a case for the AFC North title, they'll need to beat the Steelers. To do so, they'll need solid games from the triumvirate of Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and Cedric Benson.

"To win," Marvin Lewis said, "we need to have success running and passing the ball. We need to keep our balance. I'm not sure who'll have a harder time doing that on Sunday—us or Troy Polamalu."

Steelers win, 21-17.

Indianapolis @ New England (-21)

The Patriots hammered the Eagles, 38-20, last week in Philadelphia, and now turn their attention to the Colts for what would normally be one of the most anticipated games of the season. In Peyton Manning's absence, however, it is just another game, yet one the Pats need to win to maintain their comfortable lead in the AFC East.

"This will be just like old times," Tom Brady said. "In most of our past games with the Colts, Manning could do little more than stand and watch.

"Many fans had this game circled on their calendars, but with Manning's injury and Indy's struggles, it was yanked from the Sunday night schedule. In flex game parlance, that's called a 'circle jerk.'"

The Colts are now 0-11 after a 27-19 loss to the Panthers in Indianapolis last week. Barring an amazing turnaround, the Colts appear headed towards securing the No. 1 pick in next year's NFL draft, in which they'll likely select Stanford's Andrew Luck.

"There are those that say we're 'tanking' to hold on to the first pick," Jim Caldwell said. "Let me just respond to those accusations by saying, with a wink of the eye, that there is 'no Luck involved.'"

Dan Orlovsky will start for the Colts, making his first start since the 2008 season, when he played for the 0-16 Detroit Lions. As was the case then, he comes out firing "blanks."

New England wins, 30-17.

Atlanta @ Houston (+1)

The Texans 20-13 win over the Jaguars last week was a costly triumph, as quarterback Matt Leinart, in for Matt Schaub, broke his collarbone and was lost for the year. Now, Houston's hopes in the stretch run, and hopefully playoffs, may rest on the shoulders of third-stringer T.J. Yates.

"That's a scary thought," Gary Kubiak said, "and one that resulted in 'Brett Favre as a Texan' rumors. I'm sure we could have lured Favre out of retirement, especially with a text message labeled 'Proposition?'

"But Favre is out, and Jake Delhomme is in. We signed Delhomme to back up Yates. We already have two great advocates for our running game — Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Now we have two more — Yates and Delhomme."

The Falcons remained hot on the tails of the division-leading Saints, beating the Vikings 24-14 in Minnesota.

"It certainly hasn't been a good year for 'Matt's' in the NFL," Mike Smith said. "Matt Cassel, Matt Schaub, and Matt Leinart have all gone down to injury. God forbid if Matt Ryan gets hurt, because that will be a 'fourth down,' and I want to avoid those at all costs."

Houston rides its ground game, defense, and home crowd to a 27-24 win.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-3)

The 3-8 Panthers face the 4-7 Buccaneers in a battle at the bottom of the NFC South standings. The Panthers beat the winless Colts last week, while the Bucs dropped a 23-17 decision to the Titans.

"From what I hear," Cam Newton said, "I understand it's a big deal when the Panthers head South to Tampa. And an even bigger deal when Panthers cheerleaders go down there.

"Just like two Panthers cheerleaders in a Tampa bar bathroom stall, it's also a tight fit at the bottom of the South standings. And the two parties involved are up to 'no good.'"

The Bucs have lost five in a row, all to teams currently in the hunt for a playoff spot. Tampa's schedule eases considerably with the Panthers coming to town, followed by a trip to face the 3-8 Jaguars next week.

"I hear the Jags are saying the same thing," Raheem Morris said. "It's a tough time to be a coach in the state of Florida, or the University of Syracuse. Jacksonville owner Wayne Weaver fired his coach and sold the team on the same day. He got rid of the old Jack; now he's got some new 'jack.'"

Tampa wins, 30-24.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+6½)

The Ravens sacked Alex Smith nine times on their way to a dominating 16-6 win over the 49ers on Thanksgiving night. Baltimore is 8-3, with all three losses coming on the road after big home victories.

"We've won two games without Ray Lewis," said Ray Rice. "Even more amazingly, we've won eight with Joe Flacco."

The Browns four wins this year have come against teams with a combined 10 wins. Cleveland closes the year with four of its remaining five games against AFC North rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

"It's going to be cold and rainy in Cleveland," Colt McCoy said. "That's the kind of weather ready made for a big, white, bruising back with something to prove. Let me know if you know of one."

Who's more likely to keep the Browns in the game, McCoy or Flacco? Flacco throws an early interception, but comes back with 2 passing scores, one to Ray Rice, the other to Anquan Boldin.

Baltimore wins, 24-13.

Dallas @ Arizona (+6)

The NFC East race looks to be a two-team race between the Cowboys and the Giants, who meet twice in the season's final four weeks. Dallas edged the Dolphins, 20-19, on Thanksgiving to improve to 7-4, one game ahead of the Giants.

"Here in Dallas," Tony Romo said, "we do just enough to get by. This year, with the success of the Packers and 49ers, that still won't be enough to get bye.

"The NFC East champion likely won't be decided until the last week of the season. Therein lies the playoff motto for the NFC East: 'Late entry, early exit.'"

The Cardinals won for only the fourth time this year, beating the Rams 23-20 in St. Louis. Beanie Wells had 228 yards rushing and a touchdown, and Patrick Peterson returned a punt for a touchdown to lead the Cards.

"Big games like that from Beanie are few and far between," Ken Whisenhunt said. "We call him 'H.G.,' because he's invisible most of the time."

Are the Cowboys due for a letdown? Aren't they always? And with the Giants facing the unbeatable Packers, Romo and company can afford to be. Dallas battles back from an early deficit, and takes a 29-17 win.

Green Bay @ NY Giants (+7)

The Packers put their 11-0 record on the line against the Giants in MetLife Stadium, where the Giants are 3-2. Green Bay won their Thanksgiving Day showdown with the Lions, 27-15, behind 307 yards passing and 2 touchdowns from Aaron Rodgers.

"You just never know what you'll get with the Giants in MetLife Stadium," Aaron Rodgers said. "Will it be the team that beat the Patriots, or the team that lost to the Seahawks? Apparently, there are two teams that play in MetLife Stadium. Three counting the Jets.

The Giants are on a three-game skid that has seen their two-game lead in the NFC East evaporate. After a 49-24 blowout loss in New Orleans, the G-Men trail the Cowboys by a game.

"One week after facing the 2009 Super Bowl champs," Tom Coughlin said, "we get the 2010 Super Bowl champs. Therefore, I can honestly say that 'Things are getting better.' But not our running game. We're quite adept at getting run out of stadiums; we just can't run in them."

Rodgers throws for 182 yards and 2 scores in the first half, as the Packers get a leg up early on the Giants and hold on for the win.

Green Bay wins, 31-20.

St. Louis @ San Francisco (-13½)

The 49ers look to rebound after Thanksgiving night's 16-6 loss in Baltimore, and the 2-9 Rams don't appear to pose much of a threat. With a win and Seattle and Arizona losses, San Francisco would lock up the NFC West division crown.

"Losing to Baltimore was a humbling experience," Jim Harbaugh said. "But we proved we can hang with the best. Now, with four of our five remaining games against teams in the NFC West, we'll see if we can hang with the 'least.'"

The Rams have scored fewer points than all but one team in the league, and are averaging less than 13 points per game. The 49ers surrender only 14.6 points per game.

"I guess we'll find out what's more immovable," Steve Spagnuolo said. "San Fran's defense, or our offense."

San Francisco wins, 31-14.

Detroit @ New Orleans (-8)

The Lions will be without Ndamukong Suh, who was suspended two games for stomping on Green Bay offensive lineman Evan Dietrich-Smith in Detroit's 27-15 Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers.

"Ndamukong is not a dirty player," Jim Schawart said. "That stomp was a Twister game gone very wrong — 'right foot on 'Green.' Ndamukong just has an odd way of donating to charity. In his defense, he did call Roger Goodell to apologize. It appears that Suh's apologies are much like his behavior — unacceptable.

"But I think we'll rally as a team without Suh. Without Ndamukong, we have no choice but to 'step up.'"

New Orleans wins, 36-27.

San Diego @ Jacksonville (+1½)

The Chargers struggles continued, as an early 10-0 lead over the Broncos turned into a demoralizing 16-13 overtime loss. Nick Novak missed the potential game-winning 53-yard field goal, and San Diego lost its sixth-straight game.

"Just before the kick," Novak said, "you may have seen me relieving myself on the sidelines, under a table stocked with Gatorade 'P' Series. Or so it appeared. Actually, in honor of that great quarterback in Denver, I was 'Te-going.'

"But let's face it. The real bladder control issue here is Norv Turner's, because he's really 'got to go.'"

The Jaguars fired head coach Jack Del Rio on Tuesday after a 3-8 start. Del Rio was 69-73 in nine seasons in Jacksonville.

"Del Rio had to see this coming," Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver said. "I did, because I've been searching for his replacement for three years now. You know it's time for a change when your coach is referred to around town as 'Jack 'L' Rio.'"

Jacksonville picks a fine time to win one for Del Rio, but they do.

Jaguars win, 16-14.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:58 PM | Comments (0)

Why Aren't You in Bed, Mister?

As I write this column, and the publishing template takes up most of my computer screen, I have devoted a small corner of it to a stream of the UNLV/UC Santa Barbara basketball game. In doing so, I'm trying to recapture a bit of nostalgia from my youth.

How does a Midwestern kid have any nostalgia for either of these teams? Let me explain. I've been a sports fan all of my life, and from a very early age, that meant watching or listening illicitly — that is, past my bedtime.

I remember the first time I realized that I didn't have to go to sleep when my parents said to go to bed. It was October 21st, 1984 (I admit I'm looking up the details, but I remember the teams), and there was a special Sunday Night edition of Monday Night Football. According to Wikipedia, it didn't start until 9:45 EST, thanks to ABC showing a Ronald Reagan/Walter Mondale debate, and although my parents sometimes generously extended my bedtime to watch the first quarter or so of MNF, I was only allowed to watch the first few plays of this one, where the Cowboys hosted the Saints.

A light bulb went off in my head — I have a transistor radio! And my parents wouldn't be able to hear it from downstairs! So I sneaked the radio under my pillow, played it at the lowest volume where I could still hear it, and reveled in my subversiveness. I made it all the way to the end of the game, which the Cowboys won in a barn burner. I was 8-years-old.

That was it for me. Every Monday Night Football game could count on me as a listener in the dark, straining to hear in case my parents came upstairs.

My perfidy only increased when my parents put a TV in my room. It was then, however, that I was first busted. The TV was one of the huge, old black and white models which would emit a small dot of light for several minutes after turning it off. One night, I was watching a game, and was surprised to hear my stepdad lumbering up the stairs. I turned it off and jumped into bed, but it was too late.

"What went 'click?'" my stepdad asked from the hall. That was the other thing about this TV ... turning it off was loud. It wasn't so much "click" as "KA-THUNK!"

I tried to sound sleepy when I answered, "I didn't hear anything." But my stepdad came in, the accursed power-down light on the TV betrayed me, and I was grounded from TV for two weeks.

However, it was too late for rehabilitation; I was a complete reprobate. We moved to a new house when I was in sixth grade, and the logistics of my furtive late-night-watching changed. On one hand, the TV was no longer in my room, but in what we called "the middle room," a sort of foyer that led to the right to my bedroom and straight ahead to my sister's.

That was the bad news. The good news was, the middle room was upstairs, and the kids' bedrooms were the only other rooms. That meant my parents had no reason to come upstairs at all. Heck, whether I was up past my bedtime or not, it became clear that hearing parents coming upstairs equaled trouble.

Still, with the television close to the stairs, I had to be very, very quiet and stealthy, and adopted new methods. First, I would cover myself and the television with a big blanket to snuff out the light. Second, if we did go to Defcon-5 and I heard a parent coming upstairs, I learned the trick was to not turn the TV off, but to turn the brightness all the way down. The TV appeared to be off unless you happened to hear the soft buzzing the TV would emit. Luckily, my stepdad wasn't very eagle-eared and I never got busted in the new house.

By this time, my sports appetite had expanded beyond football and I became the college basketball junkie I still am today. This coincided with the birth of a competitor to ESPN, called SportsChannel America. SportsChannel America would eventually morph into FOX Sports Net as we know it today. Back then, though, their production values were endearingly low, and they only got the rights to leagues and conferences ESPN didn't want.

One of those conferences was the Big West Conference. The Big West Conference, back then, was UNLV and a bunch of minnows that UNLV would roll over. These were UNLV's glory years, when they made back-to-back Final Fours and snagged a national championship. You remember those years: Stacey Augmon, Larry Johnson, Anderson Hunt, Greg Anthony. I watched every UNLV game SportsChannel America showed, which was most of them.

I always rooted against them, because they were always huge, huge favorites. They were way too big, too good for their conference, so I got to watch them mop the floor with the likes of Pacific, or the Anteaters of UC-Irvine. Sometimes the minnows kept it close. Mostly, they didn't.

But the upshot of watching all these UNLV games was I got to know them really, really well. I always rooted against them, but I didn't dislike them. I watched them bash their way through the early rounds of the NCAA tournament at 11:30 at night, where ESPN, at the time, would pass it off to CBS for one late-night game that usually included UNLV against the likes of Idaho State or Montana. One year, 1987 to be exact, the CBS late-night first round game was Oklahoma winning a close one against Tulsa in Tucson, Arizona. For this nostalgic reason I always try to watch when those two teams play in basketball.

UNLV started to fall on hard times. They went undefeated in the 1991-92 conference season but were ineligible for the NCAA tournament. The 1992-93 season brought more troubles. Instead of nearly knocking off the Rebels, Big West teams — like Long Beach State (twice) and Cal-State Fullerton — were actually beating them. They were not selected as an at-large team for the NCAA tournament, and were blown-out by USC in the first round of the NIT. These teams consisted of guys you don't remember and probably never knew, but I do. Dedan Thomas. Lawrence Thomas. Sunshine Smith.

By this time, I had completely converted to an out-and-out UNLV fan, but the era had ended. UNLV wasn't an elite program anymore, and hasn't been since. They left the Big West for the Mountain West. SportsChannel America became FOX Sports and stopped showing their games. I was far enough into my teens that I didn't really have a bedtime anymore.

But tonight, they are playing UCSB, an old Big West foe, in non-conference action. Maybe if I turn off all the lights and expand the screen to full-size, I can pretend it's 1990 again, and I'm under the TV blanket, listening carefully for my stepdad's footsteps.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 12:20 PM | Comments (1)