Five Quick Hits
* UFC 137 may have been the last time we see B.J. Penn and Mirko Filipovic fight. If so — and I doubt they'll both stay retired — it's a historic night for MMA, losing two legends at one event. If you haven't already seen Cagepotato's tribute to Cro Cop, check it out.
* Viacom's purchase of Bellator could be a game-changer in MMA. With the rapid dissolution of Strikeforce, Bellator is attracting more and more talent, especially in the lighter weight classes. There just isn't room for all these guys in the UFC, and Bellator has hit gold with a few of its prospects.
* Bellator's heavyweight and light heavyweight talent are not impressive. Its welterweight, featherweight, and bantamweight classes, though, are plenty good. There are multiple UFC-caliber fighters in those divisions.
* Mayhem Miller is right: Michael Bisping is a dick. But so are Mayhem and his assistant coach Ryan Parsons. If you constantly needle a guy, you can't expect him to be a sweetheart in return. Especially if he's a dick like Michael Bisping. It is true that shooting a double (and immediately getting swept!) at the stare-down is pretty bush.
* Also, Parsons somehow comes off as just as much of a dick as Bisping, which requires being an incredible a-hole. And as unpopular as Bisping is, it's silly to suggest that he's the most hated man in MMA. Josh Koscheck, hands down. Kos walks into an arena and the place explodes into booing.
***
It wasn't all that long ago UFC fighters were scoffing at WEC transplants. They weren't anywhere near the skill level in the UFC, we were told, and the winner of the Ben Henderson/Anthony Pettis match was going to get slaughtered in his UFC title fight. That bout didn't materialize because of the draw in Edgar/Maynard II, but the WEC talent has acquitted itself nicely.
Henderson is in line for a shot at the belt after breaking Jim Miller's 7-fight win streak. Donald Cerrone is 4-0 in the UFC, including finishes of Charles Oliveira and Dennis Siver. Bart Palaszewski just KO-ed Tyson Griffin. Jose Aldo beat Kenny Florian. Pettis, 1-1 in the UFC and still on the short list of lightweight title contenders, is the most disappointing one in this group. Former WEC champs Brian Stann and Carlos Condit have become UFC standouts, as well.
But Saturday night wasn't just a showcase for the WEC's Cerrone and Palaszewski. It also proved that Nick Diaz, out of the UFC for 5½ years, can compete with the best talent in any organization, as he dominated B.J. Penn for his 11th win in a row. For a long time now, most fans have believed that the best fighters in Strikeforce — guys like Alistair Overeem, Gilbert Melendez, and Diaz — could hang with anyone in the UFC. Diaz's performance this weekend doesn't necessarily prove that, but it certainly provides some validation for that viewpoint.
Now if we could just get Shinya Aoki and a few of the Bellator guys into the Octagon...
November 2011 UFC Rankings
The rankings below are exclusively for the UFC, so you won't see names like Nate Marquardt or Pat Curran on these lists. I know there are widespread rumors concerning Strikeforce fighters moving to the UFC, but until they have fights officially set, they're not ranked here.
Heavyweight (206-265 lbs)
1. Cain Velasquez
2. Junior Dos Santos
3. Alistair Overeem
4. Brock Lesnar
5. Shane Carwin
6. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
7. Frank Mir
8. Roy Nelson
9. Brendan Schaub
10. Cheick Kongo
Make it Happen: Nelson vs. Kongo
Because who else are they going to fight? When Strikeforce finally goes off life support, the refugees from the Heavyweight Grand Prix will bring some much-needed variety to the UFC heavyweight division, which has been recycling matchups among a handful of elite guys. Here's hoping Josh Barnett can mend his fences with Dana White at least to the Tito level, so fans can see how the UFC's best fare against the best from Strikeforce. Speaking of which...
Thank You, UFC, For: Overeem vs. Lesnar
Mixed martial arts fans have been wanting to see this for a couple of years now, and it's the perfect fight for Overeem in his UFC debut.
Light Heavyweight (186-205)
1. Jon Jones
2. Maurício "Shogun" Rua
3. Lyoto Machida
4. Rashad Evans
5. Dan Henderson
6. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
7. Forrest Griffin
8. Phil Davis
9. Vladimir Matyushenko
10. Alexander Gustafsson
Make it Happen: Griffin vs. Rampage
The UFC has pushed too many rematches the last year or so, but this makes sense for both fighters, and their title fight a couple years back was awfully close. Both Griffin and 'Page have been taking a long time between fights, though, so if one of them is holding this up, the other could face the winner of the expected bout between Matyushenko and Gustafsson.
Thank You, UFC, For: Jones vs. Machida
I know some people don't think Machida has earned this title shot. That's because they're forgetting how awful the judges' decision was in his loss to Jackson. I'm thrilled for this fight, because I believe Machida provides the most interesting stylistic matchup for Jones. The people criticizing this matchup, in my opinion, aren't applying critical thinking to the issue. With Rashad sidelined by injury, this was a great fight to make. Also, thank you for Rua vs. Henderson.
Middleweight (171-185)
1. Anderson Silva
2. Chael Sonnen
3. Yushin Okami
4. Michael Bisping
5. Vitor Belfort
6. Brian Stann
7. Mark Muñoz
8. Demian Maia
9. Jason "Mayhem" Miller
10. Chris Leben
Make it Happen: Maia vs. Rousimar Palhares
Maia used to be one of my favorite fighters, but his stand-up game is not entertaining. Put him against another submissions specialist and let's see which is the superior grappler.
Thank You, UFC, For: Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le
Realistically, neither guy is a contender at this point, but as a fan, you can't not be looking forward to this.
Welterweight (156-170)
1. Georges St-Pierre
2. Nick Diaz
3. Jon Fitch
4. Carlos Condit
5. B.J. Penn
6. Jake Ellenberger
7. Jake Shields
8. Josh Koscheck
9. Diego Sanchez
10. Martin Kampmann
Make it Happen: Shields vs. Koscheck
As far as any fight involving Jake Shields can be interesting, this one should be. Kos certainly has the better striking game, and he's a good wrestler, but is he good enough to stay off the mat against Shields? Let's find out, so we can stop talking about one of these guys as a top-10 welterweight, and make room in the rankings for Anthony Johnson, and the winners of Rick Story vs. Kampmann and Rory MacDonald vs. Brian Ebersole.
And since everyone is speculating about Condit's next fight, I'd suggest that Diego Sanchez or Rumble Johnson might be reasonable. Ellenberger might make sense, too, but if he beats Condit, it'd be tough to deny him a shot at the belt, and I don't know if the UFC wants to market Ellenberger in a title fight yet. I feel like his name recognition is still pretty low outside of hard-core fans. Johnson, and especially Sanchez, have a little higher profile, and they've got exciting styles that are easy to promote.
Thank You, UFC, For: St-Pierre vs. Diaz
I've liked Carlos Condit since the WEC days, but this fight has to happen. Please show up at the presser this time, Nick.
Lightweight (146-155)
1. Frankie Edgar
2. Gray Maynard
3. Ben Henderson
4. Jim Miller
5. Kenny Florian
6. Anthony Pettis
7. Donald Cerrone
8. Clay Guida
9. Joe Lauzon
10. Melvin Guillard
Make it Happen: see below
Most of the top guys don't have fights on their calendar right now, so the division is wide open. Who should Cerrone fight next, for instance? Joe Lauzon makes a lot of sense to me, but you could also give him Pettis or Florian. Or Evan Dunham. Or Matt Wiman. Or Gilbert Melendez, or pretty much anyone else listed above.
Thank You, UFC, For: Henderson vs. Guida
Even if Melendez signs with the UFC, I think the winner of this fight has to get a shot at the belt. Give Melendez a fight against anyone else in the top 10, and scoot him into the title fight if he wins. Florian vs. Melendez could be pretty interesting.
Featherweight (136-145)
1. Jose Aldo
2. Mark Hominick
3. Chad Mendes
4. Erik Koch
5. Diego Nunes
6. Dustin Poirier
7. Mike Brown
8. Darren Elkins
9. Bart Palaszewski
10. Robert Peralta
Make it Happen: Brown vs. Hatsu Hioki
A real test for the Japanese fighter, who won unimpressively in his UFC debut.
Thank You, UFC, For: Season 14 of The Ultimate Fighter
This is the weakest division in the UFC, and it could desperately use an infusion of talent from Bellator and/or Japan. I'd love to see what Patricio Freire or Hiroyuki Takaya could do in the UFC. Some of the guys from the current season of TUF could be competitive in this division very quickly.
Bantamweight (126-135)
1. Dominick Cruz
2. Urijah Faber
3. Joseph Benavidez
4. Brian Bowles
5. Miguel Torres
6. Demetrious Johnson
7. Scott Jorgensen
8. Brad Pickett
9. Eddie Wineland
10. Renan Barão
Make it Happen: Jorgensen vs. winner of Torres/Nick Pace
How did Torres end up in a fight with a nobody like Pace, anyhow? If he wins, Jorgensen is a reasonable next opponent. Failing that, I'd love to see Torres against the loser of Faber/Bowles.
Thank You, UFC, For: Faber vs. Bowles
I know Urijah has only been at 135 for about a year, but it seems strange somehow that these two have never met in the cage. The winner has clearly earned a title shot in this shallow division.
UFC on FOX
Yeah, Leben vs. Muñoz is first. We'll come back to that one. The UFC's debut on a major network is probably the MMA story of the year, which is saying something. We've had the biggest show in UFC history (UFC 129), the promotion's return to Brazil (UFC 134), the purchase of Strikeforce, the growth of Bellator, the decline of Fëdor Emelianenko, the rise of Jon Jones, the struggles of Japanese MMA, and plenty more. This one has the biggest long-term implications. FOX is really doing right by the UFC, promoting the event heavily, and a strong event could change the future of the sport as dramatically as Griffin vs. Bonnar did.
Heavyweights are easy to promote — everyone understands a Heavyweight Championship fight — but it's a risky move when catering to casual fans, because heavyweight fights often tend to be slower-paced (and thus less entertaining) than the lighter weight classes. Velasquez and Dos Santos are exceptions to that rule; I can't remember either of them in a boring fight. The danger, I suppose, would be that Velasquez gives so much respect to Junior's striking that he takes him to the mat and keeps him there, with Dos Santos using his ground skills to nullify the champ's ground-and-pound.
I know that's a pretty specific concern, but it's not at all inconceivable, and the stakes are awfully high, with the UFC almost certainly playing to its largest audience ever. The fight itself could go either way, but I'm guessing Velasquez, with the more well-rounded game, retains the title.
The other major fight on the FOX card is a presumed title eliminator between Benson Henderson and Clay Guida. I've been burned before, underestimating judges' affection for a human carpet, but I think Henderson is the more dynamic and well-rounded fighter. I can't imagine Guida finishing him, and Henderson has the skills to put Guida in trouble from any position. I say Ben wins a split decision or a submission via some form of choke.
There are some other decent-looking fights on the card, but the only one with any kind of immediate title implications is Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza. Poirier has won three in a row, including an upset over Josh Grispi, when the latter was the number one contender at featherweight. Garza is officially 11-1, and coming off his flying triangle victory at UFC 129. I can't imagine the winner will get a shot at the belt, but he'll probably be "in the mix", as Dana White likes to say. I lean slightly towards Poirier, I guess.
At UFC 138 (this coming Saturday, November 5th), I'll take Muñoz over Leben and Pickett over Barão, plus Thiago Alves to get back on track against some Congolese/Swedish guy. Terry Etim, who hasn't fought in a year and a half, makes his return at this event, while Che Mills — one of the favorites to win the US vs. UK season of TUF — finally makes his UFC debut after being upset by James Wilks in the qualifying. I'm cautiously picking both Brits to win, but I expect Anthony Njokuani to ruin Paul Taylor, who is game but outclassed.
Wrapping up the Bellator Season Five tournaments, I'm betting on Eduardo Dantas to top Alexis Vila, Ben Saunders to outclass Douglas Lima, and Alexander Shlemenko to ruin Vitor Vianna. That said, I think all the current Bellator belt-holders win their next title defense, except for Christian M'Pumbu and Zoila Frausto Gurgel, because who the hell knows when those fights will be, and Joe Warren, whom I don't think can beat Freire or Curran.
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