The WTA Tour Championships are approaching and though the lineup isn't yet finalized as of this writing, it's time to take a look at what's in store.
On September 5th, Caroline Wozniacki and Maria Sharapova became the first players to book their place in the Tour Championships. Being the first to secure a spot is always impressive, but even more so considering neither of them won a slam in 2011.
Wozniacki continued to underachieve at the major tournaments, but managed to win six titles throughout the year. At the Slams, she reached the semifinals of the Australian Open and the U.S. Open, whilst she could only manage a third round and fourth round and Roland Garros and Wimbledon, respectively. Despite holding on to her No. 1 ranking, it has been quite a disappointing year for the Dane who needs to prove she can do it on the big stage and maybe she can do that by going, improving on her runner-up position at last year's Tour Championships.
Sharapova, on the other hand, has only won two titles this year, but unlike Wozniacki reached a Slam final. The Russian reached the Wimbledon final before putting in a rather underwhelming performance against Petra Kvitova. It was the same story a month earlier, as well. At Roland Garros, she appeared to be in fine form, as she reached the semifinals where she had a torrid time as her serve capitulated.
Of the two of them, it is more likely that Sharapova will leave Istanbul with the title. Sharapova has probably had the slightly more consistent year, perhaps proven by the fact that she occupies the No. 2 spot in the race, having only played 14 tournaments. The rest of the top 10 have played at least 17. Furthermore, of the six others that have secured their spot, she only has a losing record against one of them and that is Kvitova. Wozniacki, however, only has a winning record over two of them, which perhaps explains why she has yet to make that major breakthrough.
Kvitova and Victoria Azarenka were next to reach the Tour Championships. Kvitova has won five titles, though her year will be best remembered for lifting the Venus Rosewater Dish at Wimbledon. After that triumph, her form dipped as she lost to Andrea Petkovic twice in the U.S. Open Series and then became the first Wimbledon Champion to lose in the first round of the U.S. Open. Perhaps the pressure of winning a Slam and the expectations thereafter were a bit too much for the young Czech.
Azarenka, for the for the last couple of years, has had much the same criticism thrown her way as Wozniacki. Azarenka is a proven talent, something she proved again in 2011 by winning two titles, but like Wozniacki, she has never taken that form and reproduced it at Slams. She did make a small stride towards one day winning a major as she reached her first Slam semifinal at Wimbledon. Once again, like Wozniacki, her record against the other competitors in Istanbul is far from excellent.
Besides Kvitova, two of the other three Slam winners will be in Istanbul. Li Na who won at Roland Garros and Sam Stosur who won the U.S. Open. Kim Clijsters is the other Slam winner, but she hasn't done enough to qualify for the year-end tournament.
Na made headlines at the start of the year when she became the first Chinese player to reach a Slam final, only for it to end in disappointment, but that wouldn't be the case at the French Open. Even though clay is far from her strongest surface, Na put together are remarkable two weeks and capped it off beautifully with a really good performance against the defending champion, Francesca Schiavone. Na became a sensation overnight and in a similar manner to Kvitova, she began to falter on court. She exited Wimbledon in the second round and the U.S. Open in round one. Her total lack of form since June is a concern and going into the WTA Tour Championships, she has to be the big outsider to take the title.
Stosur had a very poor start to the year, especially given how well 2010 had gone for her. In 2010, she reached her first Slam final at Roland Garros and when she lost there, there were some voices saying that she had blown her one chance at a major title. If her tennis before the U.S. Open Series was anything to go by, then those voices were correct, but somewhat against the odds, she reached the U.S. Open final, where she faced Serena Williams. Despite nobody giving her a chance, Stosur annihilated her 6-4, 6-2. Stosur will not be amongst those expected to win in Istanbul and it really is hard to make a case for her given that in 15 matches, she has never beaten Sharapova, Kvitova or Azarenka. However, she does like to defy the odds, but they do seem too hard to defy this time.
Vera Zvonareva completes the list of players that have confirmed their spot. The Russian was someone else who didn't have the same standard of season as 2010, but she did win two titles in 2011, whereas she only won one in 2010. Her record at the our Championships has been very good, including a runner-up place in 2008 and despite not being in the best form, she is capable of causing a surprise or two.
The final spot will be filled by Agnieszka Radwanska, Marion Bartoli, or Andrea Petkovic, but it would be a major shock if Radwanska doesn't take her place in Istanbul since she only needs to get past the first round in the Kremlin Cup as of this writing. Since the start of the U.S. Open Series, Radwanska has been playing some very good tennis, but she did under perform at the U.S. Open, whilst Bartoli has been consistent throughout the year and excelled at Roland Garros and then again a month later at Wimbledon.
Predicting who will make the semifinals or even win the tournament is slightly more difficult without knowing the groups, but given her pedigree and her record against most of the players in the tournament, it's hard to see past Sharapova.
October 27, 2011
Deane Daggett:
Kvitova is the one to beat. She’s almost back on form and almost might be enough. Her ability to hit winners from anywhere on the court, seemingly at will, is preternatural and mind-boggling when she’s in full flight. I cannot think of anyone but the Federer of a few years back who can do that consistently.
The locker room scuttlebut is that nobocy, but nobody, wants to draw Kvitova.
November 1, 2011
Mert:
Luke,
In retrospect, although your Sharapova prediction may have bombed (apparently she had an injury too), this is a great preview of the tournament! Many “experts” write previews like this, and they are usually saved from embarrassment because nobody looks at it once the tournament is over. But I bet yours would shine next to theirs assuming it is looked at a “post-tournament” evaluation angle.
Having watched live Kvitova win the GDF Suez title in February, I am not surprised she won this title. She is a fabulous indoor player, and as she matures more and more, I think she will be a long-time top 5 player - at this point, mentally, she is not 100% there in my opinion.
Mert
November 1, 2011
Mert:
Nice pick by Deane by the way! :)