Five Quick Hits
* You've surely heard by now that Raiders owner Al Davis passed away over the weekend. His influence on professional football cannot be overstated. Davis was a titan of the game, hugely influential with regards to both on-field strategy and off-field maneuvering. More on Davis in the Raiders summary.
* I am increasingly certain that Brian Billick thinks "trickeration" is a real word, not just something you say once in a while to be funny. If this continues, I may have to kill him.
* Brandon Meriweather is the dirtiest player in the NFL.
* Sebastian Janikowski is having one of the greatest seasons ever by a placekicker. In five games, he has five field goals of at least 50 yards, including three this weekend (a single-game record) and a record-tying 63-yarder in Denver in Week 1.
* ESPN repeatedly missed the beginning of the play on Monday night. This is supposedly a professional broadcast.
***
Sometimes in sports, a narrative arises in defiance of reality. It becomes conventional wisdom that a good player like David Garrard or Kyle Orton or Tony Romo stinks and needs to be replaced. Garrard, with no decent receivers to throw to, did a great job of avoiding mistakes and creating plays with his feet. Orton looked like a top-10 QB for most of last season. Romo is among the best quarterbacks of this generation.
The flip side of this is the completely undeserved hype that comes to surround mediocre players like Sam Bradford and Rex Grossman and Jason Campbell. This week, Dan Marino, doing the highlights, called Campbell "solid on the day, 15-for-35." Whoa, hang on. How is 15-for-35 solid? That's 42.9% completion percentage. That hasn't been "solid" in 40 years. It's like there's an unspoken agreement among the media and less-educated fans to promote the absurd idea that (for instance) Bradford and Grossman are not only better than Orton and Romo, but so much better that the former should be praised and the latter should be benched, or perhaps cut outright to try their luck in the CFL.
I don't know where this comes from. But it's mindless at best, dishonest or so careless as to be the same thing, and on the side that sets out to destroy the career of someone like Orton or Romo, it's really, really messed up. Who are you going to believe, Don Banks and Marino, or your lyin' eyes? Maybe it's not your eyes that are lying. Brackets show last week's rank.
1. Green Bay Packers [1] — Of the several big comebacks in Week 5, surely this was the least surprising. I have run out of good things to say about Aaron Rodgers. Pick any positive adjective that can remotely be applied to football, and it's true. The injury to Chad Clifton is cause for concern, but not panic. Rookie Derek Sherrod looked shaky at times, but I was impressed by Marshall Newhouse, who took over for Clifton at left tackle. The announcers made much too big a deal about the young tackles. Newhouse looked good.
2. Baltimore Ravens [2] — In each of their three wins, the Ravens scored over 30 points: 35, 37, 34. They held their opponents to an average of 10. In Week 2, they lost to the Titans, 26-13. Fluke. The Ravens are the only team in the NFL to score at least twice as many points as they have given up: 119-57. The Rams are the only team to allow at least twice as many: 46-113.
3. Detroit Lions [6] — It's hard to evaluate their defense against an offensive line as awful as Chicago's, but the Lions — now 5-0 for the first time in the last fifty-five seasons — are clearly for real. There are a lot of good players here, but the one you can't get away from is Calvin Johnson. His amazing TD receptions last week notwithstanding, Johnson is one of those players who often makes it look easy. We're all used to kickers leading the NFL in scoring, but right now, it's Johnson and his 9 touchdowns. Kicker Jason Hanson is tied (with John Kasay) for second. Hanson and Kasay are a combined 212 years old. Just kidding, they're both 41. But that's still pretty old to be kicking so effectively. Matthew Stafford needs to a better job of protecting his receivers. On Monday, he led both Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew into devastating hits.
4. New Orleans Saints [3] — Uncomfortably close win over the 1-4 Panthers, but that's four in a row for New Orleans, and the Saints now lead the NFL in third-down percentage (58.7%). 41-year-old John Kasay, who joined the Saints less than two weeks before the start of the regular season, leads all NFL kickers in scoring (see above). This is his 18th season connecting on a field goal of at least 50 yards. New Orleans has a critical game in Week 6, traveling to Tampa with the Buccaneers looking to rebound from a humiliating loss. A win would put the Saints 2½ games up in the NFC South.
5. New England Patriots [5] — It's not terribly surprising that five quarterbacks are on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season record for passing yardage. What is a little surprising is that Wes Welker and Minnesota's Jared Allen appear poised to seriously challenge the single-season marks for receptions and receiving yards (Welker), and sacks (Allen). Welker has 45 catches for 740 yards, which projects to 144 receptions and 2,368 yards. The records are 143 (Marvin Harrison, 2002) and 1,848 (Jerry Rice, 1995). As long as I'm making ridiculous projections after five games, though, Tom Brady's career high in interceptions is 14, and he's on pace for 19. New England's linebacking corps looks awfully suspect without Jerod Mayo.
6. Buffalo Bills [9] — Rank 30th in yards allowed, 422 per game. It's a misleading figure. Great offensive teams give up many more yards and points than poor offenses, and strange as it may seem after last year, when Buffalo ranked 28th in scoring (17.7 pts/gm), the Bills look like a great offensive team. I must have mentioned this a thousand times, but I believe Washington's 1983 Super Bowl-losing team was one of the 10 or 20 best teams in history, including those that did win championships. That team featured a record-setting offense, with a defense that was only so-so by the most common statistical measures. But Washington led the NFL in rushing defense and interceptions, actually set a single-season record for takeaways. Their 12th-ranked defense was probably the best in the NFL. Buffalo does not have the best defense in the NFL, but it's not fourth-worst, either. The Bills lead the NFL in takeaways (16), averaging better than three per game.
7. San Diego Chargers [7] — General manager A.J. Smith attracts a lot of criticism, some of it deserved, but San Diego just keeps churning out quality running backs. LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner, Darren Sproles, now Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert. LT is a future Hall of Famer, Turner is a perennial Pro Bowler in Atlanta, and Mathews appears to have a very bright future if he can stay healthy. Through five games, Mathews has 413 rush yards (4.9 avg) and 261 receiving yards, trailing only Matt Forte, Fred Jackson, and Welker in yards from scrimmage. San Diego has the fewest punts of any team in the league (12).
8. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — Ben Roethlisberger is supposed to be hurt, right? And the offensive line is pretty much just finding fat guys on the street and putting them in uniform, as I understand it. So why was Big Ben still in the game with a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter? The Steelers played a very impressive game in spite of their many injuries, but some performances got blown out of proportion.
I remember realizing last season that Dan Dierdorf, who does not offer any special insight as an analyst, had become one of my favorite announcers. Sometimes you just get comfortable with someone, I guess. I felt that way about John Madden, too. But this season, Dierdorf is so caught up in hyping the stars that he is getting on my last nerve. This Sunday, he kept making up different scenarios in which Troy Polamalu would have made a fantastic play. If that throw went to a whole different location, Troy would have intercepted it. This is the worst type of "analysis" you can get from an announcer: if reality were different, this is what would have happened. Look, if Dierdorf were in charge, Troy Polamalu would be President of the Universe, and our intergalactic enemies would cower before his lush mane of hair. But in real life, Polamalu is just a very good player who does a good job of being near the ball. He's nowhere near the player he was in his mid-20s. You want an if, Dierdorf? If Polamalu were 25, he might have gotten to that interception.
9. Oakland Raiders [10] — Over the past decade or so, I believe Al Davis was the worst owner in the NFL, doing incredible harm to the team he loved. But that's not the way Davis should be remembered. His accomplishments as a coach, owner, league commissioner, and general innovator are too many to name, but let me focus on the Raiders. Davis crafted a dynasty that once put together 16 winning seasons in a row. From 1965-1986, the Raiders played in 11 AFL or AFC Championship Games, won three Super Bowls, and had only one losing season. That is an amazing 22-year run, making it to the final four every other year for more than two decades.
The best summary I heard about Al Davis on Sunday came from NBC's Bob Costas, who offered a picture of Davis that was respectful, but honest and frank. Lots of people hated Al Davis, but a lot of people loved him, too. Nine Hall of Famers have chosen Davis to present them for induction, far more than any other individual: Lance Alworth, Jim Otto, George Blanda, Willie Brown, Gene Upshaw, Fred Biletnikoff, Art Shell, Ted Hendricks, and John Madden. That list doesn't even include Howie Long, who was on the verge of tears when he spoke about Davis on the FOX pre-game show. Head coach Hue Jackson sobbed on the sideline after Michael Huff's game-clinching interception. Davis leaves a tremendous, absolutely unique legacy, and an indelible print on the game he devoted his life to.
10. San Francisco 49ers [19] — Every once in a while, a truly mediocre player comes out of nowhere with a great season. Derek Anderson in 2007, Steve Beuerlein in 1999, Erik Kramer in '95, Don Majkowski, and so on. Through five games, Alex Smith has a passer rating of 104.1, almost 30 points above his career average and more than 20 above his previous high. Maybe it's his year. The Niners rank 27th in offensive yardage, but 7th in scoring.
11. Houston Texans [4] — Totally healthy, I still believe they'd be top-five. But Andre Johnson remains out of action, and Mario Williams will miss the rest of the year with a torn pectoral muscle. Williams will likely be replaced by second-round draft choice Brooks Reed. That makes the AFC South a lot more interesting. Statistically, Houston outplayed the Raiders in Week 5: almost 200 more yards, almost twice as many first downs. Oakland won on turnovers and special teams. Houston needs to improve its red zone play. It would really help to get Arian Foster and Johnson on the field at the same time.
12. Chicago Bears [12] — The offensive line is a disaster, the right tackle position in particular. Frank Omiyale was benched for the second game in a row, but it's not like they have Anthony Muñoz waiting to fill in. Besides, Omiyale only committed one of the Bears' NINE false start penalties against Detroit. Altogether the two teams combined for 26 penalties for 198 yards. Classic Mike Martz: on Chicago's second drive, the Bears squandered two timeouts, a replay challenge, and five Detroit penalties without managing any points. This is probably too high a ranking for a team with so many problems, but last year's Bears ranked 30th in yardage and 21st in scoring, and they won the NFC North.
13. Tennessee Titans [14] — I've written repeatedly in recent years that the NFL doesn't have any great offensive tackles right now. You have to go back to Walter Jones and Jonathan Ogden, circa 2005, to find anyone I'd say stands out on a historical level. It's too early in his career to be comparing the guy to Ogden, but I really like Michael Roos. I know everyone talks about David Stewart at right tackle, and he's okay, too, but Roos is quite clearly the superior player, and right now I'd say he's the best OT in the league. Tennessee really could have used Jason Babin on Sunday.
14. New York Jets [11] — The Patriots have too many weapons, and whenever the Jets shut one of them down, someone else stepped up. New York's pass defense is quite good, but they're vulnerable on the ground, and the offense stinks. Getting Nick Mangold back helps, but Shonn Greene is inconsistent, LaDainian Tomlinson is five years past his prime, and Mark Sanchez is unreliable. Sanchez needs to take the next step, and he probably needs to do it soon if the Jets are going to make the playoffs.
15. Dallas Cowboys [15] — They're the only team to beat San Francisco, and they're the only team to beat Washington, and one of the teams they've lost to is undefeated. With the Eagles in full-blown panic mode, I'd say Dallas is the front-runner, right now, to win the NFC East.
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [13] — As much of a laughingstock as this team was during its first 20 years, Sunday's 48-3 defeat in San Francisco tied the worst loss in franchise history. The Bucs are 3-2, and the teams they've lost to are a combined 9-1, so there's no need to panic. That said, Tampa is going to lose again next week. Playing the Saints is tough enough already, but teams traveling to London's Wembley Stadium are 2-6 the week before. The eventual Super Bowl-champion Giants won in '07, and the Patriots handled Tennessee in '09. Everyone else has lost the week before their big trip. Tampa has a "home" game at Wembley in Week 7.
17. Atlanta Falcons [16] — With about a minute remaining in the third quarter, Sean Weatherspoon left the game with what looked very much like a concussion. In the fourth quarter, he was back on the field. I don't think that's supposed to happen. The Falcons haven't lost to anyone bad (Bears, Bucs, Packers), but they're 2-3, and the wins have come by a combined six points. Atlanta has already lost as many games as all of last season (13-3). To make matters worse, Julio Jones left Sunday's game with a hamstring injury. Tony Gonzalez, meanwhile, passed Tim Brown on the all-time receptions list (4th) and Art Monk for career receiving yards (14th). Gonzalez is the best tight end in history.
18. Cincinnati Bengals [21] — I am not going to be happy if the Bengals sneak into the playoffs just because this is their year to face the NFC West, and the AFC South in a down year. Cincinnati ranks 3rd in the NFL in pass defense, but tied for last with only 1 interception all season. Opposing passers have an 84.6 passer rating against the Bengals, 16th in the NFL, and I think that's a more accurate measure of their quality than 3rd. Kicker Mike Nugent, who is 11/11 on field goal attempts, missed an extra point in Week 5.
19. Washington Redskins [17] — On a personal level, I really, really dislike Deion Sanders. As an analyst for NFL Network, though, Sanders does good work. I usually agree with him, and I appreciate that he speaks his mind. I have always hated Michael Irvin as an analyst; he's all about building and maintaining his connections, and that makes him unreliable. But on Sunday night, when Irvin and Sanders clashed about the state of the NFC East, I thought Irvin was right and Sanders was wrong.
The argument in a nutshell was this: Sanders posited that Rex Grossman was probably the best QB in the NFC East right now, and that Washington would likely win the division. Irvin said he was crazy. I agree entirely with Irvin (who picked Dallas to win the division, for what it's worth). I believe — with a great deal of confidence — that Grossman is the worst starting QB in the NFC East. Here, look at their numbers:
I realize the stats don't tell everything, but is that even close? Grossman has the lowest passer rating, the fewest touchdowns, by far the fewest yards per game. These numbers include sacks and rushing, by the way. And Grossman did all this against opponents who are a combined 6-12 (.333). If you're playing a bunch of teams who are collectively on track to go 5-11, you'd better be 3-1.
Forget Romo and Vick for a sec, how do you put Grossman ahead of Manning? Eli is sixth in the NFL in passing yards, fifth in TD passes, and fourth in passer rating. Or how about what Vick has done against good defenses like San Francisco and Buffalo? Or Romo, who beat Grossman head-to-head while missing his best receiver, half his offensive line, and part of his lung? I live in an NFC East market, so I've seen each team at least three times, except Dallas, whom I've seen twice. All of these players lack consistency, but when it comes to inconsistency, no one can hold a candle to Good Rex/Bad Rex. I have nothing against Grossman personally — he actually seems like a pretty chill guy — but to suggest that he's the best quarterback in the division is lunacy. Even to suggest that he might not be the worst indicates very questionable judgment.
20. Philadelphia Eagles [20] — Committed five turnovers and lost their fourth in a row. Last season, everyone was going nuts about Michael Vick in part because he didn't throw many interceptions. But a lot of luck goes into INTs, and Vick's performance was at least somewhat of a fluke. He already has more picks this year (7) than all of last season (6). The Eagles look worse every week.
21. Cleveland Browns [22] — It's their bye week, so there's not much to say, but check this out. Doing some research this week, I discovered an old player for the 1927-28 Dayton Triangles named Walter Tin Kit Achiu. What's great, though, is that Achiu apparently was not known as Walter, or even Tin Kit. He was better known by his nickname, Sneeze. He also apparently was sometimes called Chink, which is lovely. Achiu was Hawaiian.
22. Seattle Seahawks [26] — More than half the points in their 36-25 victory were scored in the fourth quarter: 20-11, Seattle. My favorite play in football is anything that results in a safety. I parade around my living room with my arms up in the referee's "safety" symbol whenever it happens. Anthony Hargrove's safety this weekend was probably the difference in the game. With the score 30-25 (instead of 28-25), the Giants had to go for a touchdown instead of kicking a field goal to send the game into overtime. The pass got intercepted, and, well, you know the rest. Charlie Whitehurst played well in relief of Tarvaris Jackson, but the 'Hawks have a bye in Week 6, so it's possible Jackson could be back for Seattle's next game.
23. New York Giants [18] — Another game, another busy week for punter Steve Weatherford. The Giants went 1/12 on third downs, dropping them to 29% on the season, 4th-worst in the NFL. The biggest problem is probably the offensive line, so long the team's most stable and dependable asset. This year, Eli Manning is running for his life, and the RBs are struggling. The Giants' 3.2 average per carry ranks 31st in the NFL, ahead of only the Titans.
24. Denver Broncos [23] — The fans will riot if Orton returns as the starter. It's not that I have anything against Kordell Stewart Tim Tebow, but his skill set appears to drastically limit Denver's options on offense. No one questions Eric Crouch Tim Tebow's leadership or desire — or running ability — but he seems a little lost in what everyone agrees is a passing league. Maybe Bobby Douglass Tim Tebow will be just as effective in Denver as he was at Florida, but no NFL team has been successful with this kind of quarterback in 70 years.
25. Kansas City Chiefs [29] — After an unspeakably atrocious opening to the season, getting outscored 89-10, the Chiefs have looked pretty much like we expected for the last three weeks. Matt Cassel's passer rating by game: 64.5, 44.5, 102.1, 102.7, 138.9. He won't throw 4 TD passes every week, but if he can avoid turnovers and get the ball to Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City will return to the middle section of these rankings very quickly.
26. Miami Dolphins [24] — The schedule doesn't get any easier coming out of the bye (a visit to the Jets), but they've got some guys coming back from injury, and that can make a big difference. I'm interested to see more from rookie RB Daniel Thomas.
27. Carolina Panthers [27] — Following Steve Smith's impressive 54-yard score, Olindo Mare's extra point attempt was blocked, the second week in a row he's had a kick blocked. Julius Peppers deflected his 34-yard field goal attempt in Week 4. The Panthers keep losing close games, and that's better than losing blowouts, but little things like this are often the difference between winning and losing. At some point, you'd like to see them utilize Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams more consistently.
28. Minnesota Vikings [30] — Leaned on Adrian Peterson and coasted to their first win of the season. Jared Allen is quietly off to the kind of start that gets people talking about Defensive Player of the Year. Allen sacked Kevin Kolb twice this week (for 27 yards), bringing his total to 8.5 on the season. The single-season record is 22.5, by Michael Strahan in 2001. Allen is on pace for 27, with at least half a sack in each game so far.
29. Indianapolis Colts [25] — Scored 24 points in Week 5, a season-high. Last season, a Week 5 matchup with Kansas City was the first time the Colts didn't score 24 or above. This is a totally different team without Peyton Manning, but at least with Curtis Painter they're putting some drives together and scoring touchdowns. Joseph Addai's hamstring injury does not appear to be serious. Not that it really seems to matter.
30. Arizona Cardinals [28] — Held off the Panthers in Week 1, but now they've lost four straight. I'd like to see them try to use LaRod Stephens-Howling the way the Saints do with Darren Sproles. Listed at 5-6, 190 lbs, Sproles is about the same size as LSH, and he's been a tremendous playmaker for New Orleans. The Cardinals need a spark, and Stephens-Howling is a sparkplug. He actually has been an even more successful kick returner than Sproles:
Stephens-Howling has a better average and more TDs. He does good things if you can get him the ball in space. The Cardinals should make an effort to do so more often.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — Four losses in a row since their opening-week win over Tennessee. The Jags rank 32nd in offensive yards per game and 31st in points per game, ahead of only the dismal Rams. Even veteran punter Matt Turk is having an awful year, with a terrible net average (32.8), 5 touchbacks, and no fair catches.
32. St. Louis Rams [32] — Sam Bradford is 75-of-151 this year, a 49.7% completion percentage. League-wide, completion percentage — which has been rising for about three decades — is about the same as it has been the last few years. But that's a bit skewed by the statistical influence of a few teams that throw a lot: the Packers (71.3%), Saints (69.4), Patriots (67.9), Chargers (67.2) ... almost half the league is below 60%, including three completing under half their passes: the Rams, Colts, and Ravens. The 2008-09 Browns are the only teams since 2002 to finish with a completion percentage below 50%.
If all this means anything after only five weeks, what is it? Well, partly just that a number of teams are playing inexperienced QBs, but I also believe we may finally be witnessing a reversal of the 25-year-trend toward shorter and shorter passes, with coaches who watched Green Bay win Super Bowl XLV rediscovering the deep ball. I hope I'm right, as that kind of football is a lot of fun to watch.
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