Five Quick Hits
* What on earth is happening to the Red Sox and Braves? Don't get me wrong, I like it. But it's weird.
* Colts HC Jim Caldwell has got to start taking some chances. Facing an obviously superior opponent, you can't settle for 21- and 25-yard field goals. If you're at the three-yard line, you need a touchdown. You aren't going to get that kind of field position too many times. A close loss is still a loss. C'mon, coach, roll the dice and see if you can pull off the upset.
* It probably wouldn't have affected the outcome, but officials appeared to rob Chicago's Johnny Knox of a really cool misdirection-aided punt return TD in the fourth quarter.
* Chad Henne has more rushing yards (111) than Chris Johnson (98). Among the 12 players with at least twice as many yards are Ben Tate, Daniel Thomas, and Cadillac Williams, who have a combined 2 starts among them. Johnson's longest carry this season is for 9 yards.
* I hate the way NFL pre-game shows distort the word upset. Look, if four of your five analysts pick a team to win, that's obviously not an upset. Come on, let's see these guys go out on a limb.
***
In 2008, when Tom Brady missed 15½ games, the Patriots went 11-5. Subtract Peyton Manning from the Colts, though, and the team falls apart. Manning is the most valuable player in the history of professional football. Last year, I wrote a column attempting to explain, or at least demonstrate, why quarterback is the most important position in football. I know that's obvious to most people, and it often gets blown out of proportion, to the point that people confuse team success with the individual QB, but others don't understand why running backs and linebackers so seldom win MVP, or why the first pick in the draft is usually a quarterback.
Last season, the Colts lost all-pro TE Dallas Clark just 1/3 of the way into the season. No big deal, Manning was still great, and the team went 11-5 and won the AFC South. Subtract the star QB, though, and everything goes to pieces. Some fans have gotten so used to criticizing the Colts for winning "only" one Super Bowl with Manning, they forget that he's kept the team in contention every year, sometimes without a lot of help. Dallas Clark, for what it's worth, has fallen apart without Manning. He's almost worthless as a blocker, and his fantasy value looks something close to nil without Manning. If you want to keep him on your fantasy team as a backup in case he comes around, hey, it's your team. But he shouldn't be a fantasy starter right now.
Without further ado, Week 3 power rankings. Brackets show previous rank.
1. Green Bay Packers [2] — Road win against their fiercest rival was never a blowout, but also not as close as it looked on the scoreboard. Green Bay out-gained Chicago by over 100 yards, made twice as many first downs, and won time of possession by 15 minutes. The offense looked good, of course, and old workhouse Ryan Grant clearly outplayed young buck James Starks, but the defense was particularly impressive (see Bears summary). The Packers, however, committed eight pre-snap penalties on Sunday, including five false starts. They also drew the Bears offsides four times. I guess that more or less evens out.
2. Baltimore Ravens [5] — Last week was just a hiccup, don't you think? A fluke loss by a team that was still focused on the Steelers even after it had beaten them? The Ravens have won their other two games by four touchdowns each, and they have the best point differential (+45) in the AFC. I agree with announcers Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots in that I don't understand why Joe Flacco was still in the game when the Ravens led 37-7. Flacco was sacked twice, and hit a couple other times, even with the Ravens up 30-7 in the fourth quarter. Rookie WR Torrey Smith (152 yards, 3 TDs) and Pro Bowl RB Ray Rice (162 total yards) had monster games against St. Louis. Rice, along with Darren McFadden and LeSean McCoy, is an early front-runner for all-pro running back.
3. New Orleans Saints [3] — The passing game is tremendous, and allows the Saints to be competitive against anyone. They've scored at least 30 every week so far. But remember the Colts from about 2002-04, when they had the Manning/Edgerrin James/Marvin Harrison triplets and almost nothing else? They'd go 12-4 every year and lose in the playoffs. This year's Saints will probably end up about 12-4, but they have got to start playing some defense. I know they've got some guys hurt, including Jonathan Vilma, but the Saints have allowed 88 points (29.3/gm), 30th in the NFL (the Rams and Chiefs are even worse, but they're a combined 0-6). The Saints' next three games are all on the road.
Former Saint Steve Gleason has been diagnosed with ALS, better known as Lou Gehrig's Disease. Athletes, particularly those subject to violent collisions and head trauma, seem particularly prone to this incredibly cruel disease. Gleason and his friends have created Team Gleason to raise awareness about the condition. You can also support the ALS Association through its website, ALSA.org.
4. Houston Texans [4] — 22, 27, 27, 36. Those are the distances, in yards, of Neil Rackers' field goals against New Orleans. That means the Texans kicked four field goals inside the red zone, including three inside the 10-yard line. Against a dynamic offense like the Saints, you can't settle for three points. Rackers has 7 field goals under 30 yards this season, almost twice as many as anyone else (4). Ben Tate has played well at running back, but I think this is where the team misses Arian Foster, who last year led the NFL in touchdowns (18). The Texans have a rough schedule the next month, starting with a pivotal pair of home games in Weeks 4 and 5, facing Pittsburgh and Oakland. Those games have playoff implications, and Houston has to win at least one, because the next two are on the road, at Baltimore and AFC South rival Tennessee.
5. New England Patriots [1] — Fantasy football scoring is stupid. I believe most fans know this, but touchdowns are overvalued and turnovers undervalued. This weekend, Tom Brady passed for 387 yards with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. That's not precisely a bad game, but it's certainly not a great one — except in fantasy, where Brady's afternoon netted 27 points in traditional scoring systems. Compare that to Joe Flacco (389 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT), who also earned about 27 points. You want to tell me those two had equally valuable performances in Week 3?
Brady threw as many interceptions against Buffalo as he did all of last season. He's currently on pace to pass for 7,000 yards. I say he gets 5,500, shattering Dan Marino's 27-year-old record (5,084). The Patriots lead the league in yards per game by over 100 (540.3).
6. Pittsburgh Steelers [6] — Overcame three Ben Roethlisberger turnovers and a miserable running game to edge the Colts in Indianapolis. Mike Wallace probably won't reach his stated goal of 2,000 receiving yards, but he's on pace (377) after three games. I have Wallace and Calvin Johnson in my fantasy keeper league, so I figure I'm set at wide receiver for the next decade or so. Troy Polamalu attracts the most attention on this great defense, and certainly he's an amazing player, but I was more impressed with James Harrison. Polamalu scored on a fumble recovery, and he runs around a lot, but Harrison led the team with 7 tackles (6 solo), including two for a loss and the Steelers' only sack, and he forced the fumble Polamalu scored on. Best linebacker in the NFL.
7. Detroit Lions [9] — Broke their 13-game losing streak in Minnesota, and improved to 3-0 for the first time since 1980. Head coach Jim Schwartz and GM Martin Mayhew deserve a lot of credit for turning things around after a decade of futility. The teams Detroit has played have a combined record of 2-7, but it's encouraging that the Lions have won a pair of close games, the sort they always seemed to lose in '08 and '09. Detroit leads the NFL in point differential (+55), though almost all of that was the 48-3 curb-stomping over Kansas City.
8. Buffalo Bills [16] — Broke their 15-game losing streak against the Pats with a dramatic last-second field goal. Top 3 in points, 2011 season to date: Bills (113), Patriots (104), Saints (104). I didn't mention Fred Jackson as an all-pro candidate at running back, but he's off to a tremendous start this season. Here's his average week so far: 101 rush yds, 6.4 avg, TD, 3 rec, 38 yds. I still don't understand why the team drafted C.J. Spiller last year, knowing it already had Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Jackson is 30 now, so he probably doesn't have many years left as a good player, but he's always been impressive when he's gotten a chance to play. Here's something weird: the Bills are last in the NFL in sacks (2).
9. San Diego Chargers [11] — This is Norv Turner's fifth season as San Diego's head coach. In the first four years, he's won three division titles and never finished with a losing record. But only once in those previous four seasons (2009) did San Diego win two of its first three games. Sunday's win over Kansas City improved the Bolts to 2-1. The team suffered multiple defensive injuries in Week 3, including Antonio Garay, Quentin Jammer, and Jacques Cesaire. The seriousness of those injuries isn't clear yet.
10. Oakland Raiders [19] — Shane Lechler is having a typical Lechler season: he leads the NFL with a 56.2 punting average, but he ranks 26th in I-20:TB ratio (3-2) and almost all of his punts come back from that 56.2. Of Lechler's 15 punts, two were touchbacks (subtract 20 yards) and 11 were returned (for a league-high 224 yards, including a touchdown). Lechler has ranked among the "top" 10 in punt return yards allowed each of the past eight seasons; he has never ranked in the top 10 in fair catches. The guy just gets no hang time, and he consistently out-kicks his coverage, which facilitates those big returns. Lechler has the talent to be a great punter, but all he seems to care about is bombing the ball downfield.
The Raiders continue to be involved in an extraordinary number of penalties, another 14 this weekend (7 each). Oakland went 0/8 on third downs, but made the most of its scoring opportunities (2/2 in the red zone), got a 70-yard TD run from Darren McFadden, and added two more long field goals by Sebastian Janikowski. The Raiders have a really intriguing schedule the next two weeks, home against New England and at Houston.
11. New York Jets [8] — Antonio Cromartie had a really rough game against Oakland. He was called for four penalties, all of which resulted in first downs, including a 25-yard pass interference penalty. He also fumbled a kickoff, which set up a Raider TD, and finally left the game with a rib/lung injury before he could do any more damage. The Jets now have two tough road games in a row, traveling to Baltimore and New England. A 2-3 start against this schedule wouldn't be shocking, but it would certainly be disappointing for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
12. Chicago Bears [12] — They're 1-2, with consecutive losses ... to the Packers and Saints. No shame in that, and they dominated a pretty decent Falcons team in their other game. But this offense is horrifying. Opponents have out-gained the Bears by 2-to-1 on the ground, and against Green Bay, Chicago rushed for its lowest total in 55 years, just 13 yards. Despite the almost complete absence of a running game, RB Matt Forte accounts for 44% of the team's yardage. Forte has more receptions than any two of his teammates combined. He actually has more catches (22) than Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Roy Williams put together (20). Jay Cutler threw nine straight incompletions at one point this weekend; there's just no connection between the QB and his receivers. The defense is pretty good, but this isn't 1985, or even 2006, and it can't win games by itself.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [14] — Hey now, 36-year-old Ronde Barber. In a huge home win over the Falcons, Old Man Barber came up big, with 4 solo tackles (including one in the backfield), 3 passes defensed (including an interception), and a fumble recovery. I know some people don't think of Barber as a Hall of Famer, because he doesn't have 50 or 60 interceptions. He's twice the player Champ Bailey has been, and it's unfortunate that Bailey is perceived as an all-time great (which he's not), while Barber — who really is an all-time great — doesn't get the recognition he deserves. He's not just a good player, he's the best cornerback since Rod Woodson.
Comparing Bailey to Barber, Champ has 7 more interceptions, but Barber has 7 more forced fumbles and 6 more fumble recoveries. Barber also has 400 more INT/fumble return yards and 7 more touchdowns. He has 200 more tackles, including 100 more solo tackles, and 23 more sacks (26-3). I don't have a stat to prove this, but Barber has also gotten burned deep a good bit less often than Bailey, who is a gambler.
14. Philadelphia Eagles [7] — Let's cut the foreplay and give Michael Vick a reality show. Madre de díos, how many freaking updates do we need on this guy's hand? And his delusional, woe-is-me whining about refs who won't coddle him? If you don't want to get hit, don't hold the ball so long, you pathetic prima donna. Philadelphia's tackling was atrocious on Sunday, led by safety Kurt Coleman. It's remarkable that Coleman is entering his second season in the NFL despite never having learned how to tackle. The Eagles won time of possession by almost 14 minutes this weekend, but they went 1/5 in the red zone (TD, INT, 3 FGs).
15. Dallas Cowboys [13] — With much of the team battling injuries, six Dan Bailey field goals carried them to a win over Washington on Monday night. Give some credit to Barry Cofield or Stephen Bowen or whoever it was that kept messing up center Phil Costa on the snap count. Other teams are going to try the same thing now that they've seen how vulnerable Costa is to it, so he'd better get things straightened out in a hurry. I bet it's actually not that long ago, but I couldn't tell you the last time a team was charged with six fumbles in a game and won.
16. New York Giants [18] — The NFL and its television partners have got to get it through their heads that this country does not revolve around the Northeast. I mean, there's a whole world outside of the Philly-to-Boston corridor. I don't live in Philadelphia or New York, but I've seen the Giants and Eagles every week this season, three games each. I haven't seen the Bills, Lions, or Texans at all.
Eli Manning tied a career high by throwing 4 touchdown passes against the Eagles. Active QBs with the most 4-TD games: Peyton Manning (22), Tom Brady (16), Drew Brees and Donovan McNabb (11 each), Eli (6). Was anyone else surprised, though, that Eli has never had a 5-TD game? That list is led by Peyton (6), Brady and Brees (4 each), then McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck (2 each). One 5-TD game apiece: Derek Anderson, Kerry Collins (in '04, with the Raiders), Josh Freeman, Big Ben, Tony Romo, and Matthew Stafford (as a rookie in '09).
17. Atlanta Falcons [10] — Biggest difference between the 13-3 2010 Falcons and the 1-2 2011 Falcons? Matt Ryan is taking a lot of sacks this season. Last year, Ryan was sacked 23 times in 16 games. This year, 13 times after just three games. That can't continue. It hurts already, setting up third-and-long or knocking you out of field goal range, but it's going to hurt even more when Ryan gets injured. The Falcons have too many weapons to allow defenses to dictate to them.
18. Washington Redskins [17] — I was not real impressed by Jon Gruden's scouting report. Pre-game, he compared Barry Cofield to Casey Hampton, and LaRon Landry to Troy Polamalu. Landry and Polamalu are both high-energy guys, and big hitters. But Polamalu is a future Hall of Famer, and Landry can just barely play safety in the NFL. He's more suited to playing linebacker than defensive back. Landry is far too aggressive, and his cover skills are atrocious. I don't think anyone else in the league gives up more big plays by running himself out of position. During the game, Gruden also noted, correctly, "That's a terrible throw by Rex Grossman." Well of course it was. That's what Grossman does. Horrific decision-making is pretty much his trademark.
19. Tennessee Titans [21] — How far can you really move them up the rankings after they lose their best receiver? Kenny Britt tore multiple ligaments in his knee and will miss the remainder of the season. Chris Johnson continues to struggle — he had exactly as many rushing yards this week as punter Brett Kern — but Matt Hasselbeck is partying like it's 2005. In his first year with the Titans, Hasselbeck is averaging 310 yards per game, with a 102.2 passer rating. WR Nate Washington is a must-add in most fantasy leagues at this point.
20. Cleveland Browns [25] — Outgained by almost 100 yards and lost time of possession by a full quarter (15:42), but turnovers, penalties, red zone play, and some luck kept them in the game for a 17-16 victory. Longtime special teams standout Josh Cribbs continues to see a larger role in the offense, including a 33-yard touchdown reception this weekend. The Browns' need more explosive plays from their offense, and Cribbs is an explosive player.
21. Miami Dolphins [15] — Following an exciting Week 1, Reggie Bush has turned back into Reggie Bush. Hey, remember when we were all comparing him to Gale Sayers? Daniel Thomas looks solid as the lead RB, though, and I still believe Bush could be effective as a WR/PR. Firing Tony Sparano will not solve this team's problems. The issue isn't a coach who's failed to get results from talented players, it's that there aren't very many talented players.
22. Minnesota Vikings [20] — In the first half, the Vikings have outscored their opponents 54-7. In the second half, they have been outscored 6-67. Jared Allen is the best defensive end in football, and Adrian Peterson is certainly on the short list of running backs, but other than those two and Antoine Winfield, most of this team looks lost. Maybe this wasn't all Chilly's fault. In Week 4, the Vikings travel to winless Kansas City. Someone's 0 must go. After that is a winnable home game against the Cardinals.
23. Denver Broncos [22] — Committed only one penalty to Tennessee's 11, but still lost by a field goal. This team has a ton of injuries, and the Week 6 bye can't come soon enough. Elvis Dumervil in particular is sorely missed. The team is also anxiously awaiting the returns of Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, and John Elway. Last week, I praised punter Britton Colquitt. This week, he dropped four of his five punts inside the 20-yard line, with no touchbacks. Good show, kid.
24. San Francisco 49ers [28] — With wins over Seattle and Cincinnati, this looks like the weakest 2-1 team in the league. The defense played well this weekend, limiting the Bengals to a pair of field goals, but Frank Gore's poor performance and subsequent injury make you wonder how much longer he can play. I have nothing to say about Alex Smith that hasn't already been said, except this: David Garrard. If the 49ers win in Philadelphia next week, I swear I will say some nice things about them.
25. Indianapolis Colts [26] — I'd like to see Indianapolis stick with Curtis Painter at quarterback. Kerry Collins appeals to coaches because he avoids most of the big mistakes. But Collins just doesn't create anything positive for the team, and Painter brings an energy the 39-year-old Collins doesn't. Neither of them looked particularly good on Sunday night, but Painter led a touchdown drive, which Collins couldn't do in 3½ quarters. And realistically, how much worse can the team get if they give Painter a shot? They're 0-3 with Collins. From 2009-10, the Titans were 2-11 (.154) with Collins at QB, and 12-6 with Vince Young (.667). Collins is the safe choice, but there's no upside. Painter's going to make mistakes that Collins never would, but he brings some hope, at least.
26. Cincinnati Bengals [24] — Remember that Week 1 shootout between the Patriots and Dolphins? Their Week 3 contest against San Francisco was the opposite. The teams combined for 454 yards of offense and 6/25 third-down conversions. The Niners committed 12 penalties but won anyway. Andy Dalton played very poorly this weekend, but he's a rookie. These things happen.
27. St. Louis Rams [23] — Three losses, all by double digits. Yeah, they've faced a tough schedule, but they've been outscored by an average of 20 points. How long are the major media parrots going to keep making excuses for Sam Bradford? In 2011, Bradford ranks 29th in passer rating (73.3, between Tarvaris Jackson and Kerry Collins), and only three QBs have taken more sacks. In the first half against Baltimore, the Rams were outgained 406-81, with more incompletions (11) than net passing yards (3). Or if you prefer, as many combined sacks and interceptions (3) as net passing yards. I know the receivers are banged up, and I'm not saying Bradford can't be a good player in the future, but right now, he stinks.
28. Seattle Seahawks [32] — Sidney Rice impressed in his first game as a Seahawk, catching 8 passes for 109 yards. Other noteworthy performers were Chris Clemons (3 tackles for a loss), Kam Chancellor (interception and forced fumble), and special teamer Kenard Cox (3 tackles on special teams!). The NFC West looks just as bad as last season, so if Rice can open up the offense and some of the young defensive players step up, the Seahawks could return to the postseason.
29. Carolina Panthers [30] — In pouring rain, on a surface that looked less like turf and more like slip-and-slide, Cam Newton played his first really poor game statistically, and got his first NFL win. Actually, Newton did pass for more yards (158) than rival rookie Blaine Gabbert (139), and he did it without any sacks or interceptions. Newton also rushed for 27 yards, and actually leads the Panthers (98 this season). I think this ranking is a little too low; the Panthers don't seem that bad this year. Newton deserves a lot of the credit.
30. Arizona Cardinals [29] — What a game from Calais Campbell: 10 tackles (5 solo), 2.5 sacks, and a total of 4 hits on the quarterback. This loss fell on the offense, not the defense. It's remarkable the way their passing game has fallen apart without Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. I mean, Larry Fitzgerald's still around, and it's mostly the same coaching staff. I said this about 700 times last year, but I'd like to see LaRod Stephens-Howling get more touches on offense. He's only 5'7", but so is Maurice Jones-Drew, and LSH is a play-maker, which is more than you can say for most of his teammates.
31. Jacksonville Jaguars [27] — Maurice Jones-Drew in 2011 = Corey Dillon with the Bengals. Great RB, terrible team.
32. Kansas City Chiefs [31] — Too many injuries to remain competitive. The Chiefs were always going to slide back to the pack a bit this season, but injuries to key players like Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry make this more than just "back to the pack a bit." Starting CB Brandon Flowers also left Sunday's game with an injury, though it might just be an ankle sprain. In the first half this weekend, Matt Cassel completed 6 of his 7 passes ... for 18 yards, an average of 2.6 per attempt. The Chiefs made zero first downs in the first half.
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