Five Quick Hits
* On Monday, New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera officially broke the record for career saves. What a meaningless record. We've known for years that Mo is the greatest closer in history, and saves have got to be the stupidest stat in the history of stats. I'm glad for Rivera that he has the numbers to back up his long-standing supremacy, but the record isn't significant.
* This is why you always use the first pick in your fantasy draft on Adrian Peterson. Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles are hurt, while Chris Johnson looks more like LenDale White.
* The Jets' throwback uniforms are the ugliest in the NFL. Put those hideous things away.
* We all have a tendency to overrate good offensive teams. Looking at my top two or three teams this week, I hope I'm not falling into that trap.
* Green Bay safety Nick Collins is headed for injured reserve following his neck injury in Week 2. The team has been pretty quiet about specifics, but the early indication is that although the injury could be career-threatening, Collins should be okay as far as serious life-altering medical issues are concerned.
***
On Sunday night, Cris Collinsworth referred to DeSean Jackson as "the all-pro." He's not really an all-pro, unless you count second-team kick returner in 2009, when he got 3½ votes (out of 50) and finished behind Josh Cribbs. Why not just call Jackson a Pro Bowler or all-star or something? This reminds me of the time Jon Gruden called Charger NT Jamal Williams "a six- or seven-time Pro Bowler". Williams made it to three Pro Bowls. There's nothing wrong with the truth, guys.
Four of my top seven this week are 1-1, but I think they're all teams we'd agree are very good. Brackets indicate last week's rank.
1. New England Patriots [1] — There are a lot of good quarterbacks in the NFL right now, but three in particular stand out: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers. They're all so good, no one can really be better, but if I really had to pick just one, it would be Brady. He's just not making mistakes, and he's turned a motley crew of receivers into a bunch of potential Pro Bowlers. The Dolphins used Wes Welker mostly on special teams. Deion Branch did nothing with the Seahawks. Aaron Hernandez was a fourth-round draft pick. Collectively, those three players are averaging 22 receptions per game, for 314 yards and 2 touchdowns — 7 rec, 105 yds, 1 TD per player. The Patriots have shown vulnerability in each of their first two contests, but not in the passing game.
2. Green Bay Packers [2] — Strengths and weaknesses similar to the Patriots, almost identical in fact. The passing game is exceptional, and the ground attack has shown flashes of promise. But Green Bay's defense has allowed over 400 passing yards in both games, actually ranks last in the league in pass defense. Four sacks and 3 interceptions makes up for that against an opponent like Carolina, but there's a lot of room for improvement.
3. New Orleans Saints [6] — Superb performance from Drew Brees, and the defense looked much better when it didn't have to contend with Rodgers; in fact, the defense was downright dominant against Chicago: 13 points, 246 yards, 2/13 third- and fourth-down conversion rate, and 6 sacks. I'd still like to see a more cohesive running game — New Orleans is one of only five teams without a rushing touchdown — but like Green Bay and New England, the Saints may be good enough to get away without one most of the time.
4. Houston Texans [5] — The defense, a liability basically throughout franchise history, leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed and points allowed. Former Bengal Johnathan Joseph knocked down three passes this week, and the Dolphins' Chad Henne — who lit up the Patriots in Week 1 — finished with 162 yards and a 56.2 passer rating. Texans RB Ben Tate on Sunday became the first player since Cadillac Williams in '05 to rush for over 100 yards in each of his first two NFL games. This creates some uncertainty when 2010 all-pro Arian Foster is totally healthy. Good problem for Houston, bad problem for Foster's fantasy owners.
5. Baltimore Ravens [3] — Ran just 52 offensive plays against Tennessee, for 229 yards. The Titans ran 71 plays for 432 yards. Baltimore shut down Chris Johnson (53 yards, 2.2 average), but got burned in the air, netting zero sacks and just one turnover. It's understandable for the team to have a letdown after its huge Week 1, but you can't take anyone lightly in the NFL, and you're not going to get seven takeaways every week. Did you notice the line for their game against Tennessee? Baltimore, which should have been an easy double-digit favorite, was only favored by six. Somehow, Vegas knew about the upset before it happened.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — First shutout win since 2008 (a 31-0 spanking of the Browns in Week 17). The Steelers embarrassed Seattle, outgaining the Seahawks 421-164 and holding them to 8 first downs. Most shutouts since the league expanded to 32 teams: Pats and Seahawks, 7 each; Buccaneers, 6; Steelers, 5.
7. Philadelphia Eagles [4] — Mike Kafka's line on Sunday night: 7 of 9 for 72 yards, with a 100.0 passer rating and one of the incompletions a drop. But the Eagles aren't the same team without Michael Vick, and depending on how severe his concussion was, they should probably rank lower than this. Several other key Eagles also got banged up against Atlanta, and if a couple of those turn out to be serious, the NFC East race could be a lot more interesting than most of us expect. That said, the Eagles looked like the better group, and if they can stay healthy and improve their red zone defense, they're easily one of the best teams in the league.
8. New York Jets [9] — Dominant win over Jacksonville makes up for the gift they got from Dallas. The offense continues to perform at a very low level, but you've got to love this defense. The Jets scored a safety the first time their defense took the field, and the only score they yielded was a field goal on a drive that went just 20 yards. All-pro center Nick Mangold will miss at least two games with a high ankle sprain.
9. Detroit Lions [12] — Not that this means much after two games, but Matthew Stafford is fourth in the NFL in passer rating, trailing only Brady, Rodgers, and Brees. We expected the Lions to be competitive this year, but if Stafford plays like Brees and the biggest stars stay healthy, that's not just competitive — that's contender level. We may have to wait until Week 5, when the Bears travel to Detroit for Monday Night Football, to really know whether the Lions are for real, or just the 2011 version of the 2010 Chiefs.
10. Atlanta Falcons [11] — Missing two of their best linemen, center Todd McClure and DT Jonathan Babineaux, the Falcons came back from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit. The offensive line was overrun against Philadelphia in Week 2, with Trent Cole and Cullen Jenkins combining to make six tackles for a loss. Last season, Matt Ryan took 23 sacks, just 3.9% of his dropbacks. This season, Ryan has already been sacked 9 times, 10.7%. Matty Ice was credited with his 14th game-winning drive, more than anyone except Peyton Manning (15) over that period, but the team needs to protect its QB.
11. San Diego Chargers [7] — Such a frustrating team. The Chargers have the talent to beat anyone in the NFL. Against New England, they gained 470 yards and 29 first downs, including 10/12 third down conversions, which is spectacular. But they failed to convert 4th-and-goal at the one, committed several critical turnovers, and never got Antonio Gates involved. They have a very winnable but very important game against Kansas City in Week 3.
12. Chicago Bears [10] — Matt Forte caught 10 passes for 117 yards. But when Jay Cutler wasn't throwing to Forte, he was 9-of-30 for 127 yards. That smell in the air? That's the abysmal stink of failure. Cutler also took six sacks, which, seriously, that has got to stop happening. He "led" the NFL last season (52) and he leads again now (11). Forte needs to be more productive on the ground, and Cutler needs to get better protection. A lot of the blame here has to fall on Mike Martz.
13. Dallas Cowboys [13] — You people should be ashamed of yourselves. You know who you are. The ones who spent the last seven days bashing Tony Romo, talking about how he's not a winner and the Cowboys should replace him with 39-year-old Jon Kitna. That was stupid last week, but now it's also hypocritical, because you're the same people who today are hailing Romo's toughness for playing through a broken rib and a punctured lung to lead the Cowboys to an overtime victory in San Francisco. Do the rest of us a favor and never talk again. Ever.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [14] — Down 17-0 at halftime, they rallied for a 24-20 win on the road. The Bucs so far look very much like a middle-of-the-road team, but they have a critical home game against Atlanta in Week 3, and that should give us an indication of whether or not Tampa is a serious contender this season. For that matter, it might tell us that about the Falcons, as well.
15. Miami Dolphins [15] — Toughest opening schedule in the league, getting the Patriots and Texans. I don't blame them for being 0-2. If they lose to the Browns in Week 3, then I'll lose faith in them. The Dolphins need someone — Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, Anthony Fasano, Reggie Bush, someone — to step up as a secondary receiver behind Brandon Marshall. It's hard to evaluate Chad Henne when he only has one guy to throw to.
16. Buffalo Bills [23] — Fred Jackson leads the NFL in rushing yards, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of just three QBs with a +6 TD/INT differential, the others being Brady and Brees. But the Raiders and Chiefs are not impressive opposition, and allowing Oakland to score five TDs does not bode well for the defense. Let's see how they hold up against New England (Week 3) and Philadelphia (Week 5) before we view them as anything more than a team that took advantage of an easy opening schedule.
17. Washington Redskins [16] — Don't forget about Bad Rex, Washington fans. That's the one who can't read defenses, is late with his throws, and tosses gimme interceptions in the red zone. Fortunately for Washington, other players stepped up and the Cardinals are bad enough for opponents to overcome Rexy missteps. Rookie RB Roy Helu, who gained 74 yards on 10 carries, should play a bigger role in the offense. Tim Hightower still has trouble finding the hole.
18. New York Giants [17] — Spent the first half getting torn apart by the Rams, but survived on the scoreboard thanks to a pair of turnovers and a couple of defensive stands in the red zone that turned St. Louis touchdowns into field goals. The second half looked better, but there's obviously a lot of room for progress. I hate the game-planning that replaced Ahmad Bradshaw, who carried 4 times for 27 yards (6.8 avg) with Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw is the better back, and should be getting 75% or so of the snaps at RB.
19. Oakland Raiders [18] — Got another excellent game from Darren McFadden (72 rush yd, 71 rec yd, 2 TDs), but also got another game full of penalties (8 for 85 yards). Already this season, the Raiders — who led the NFL in penalties last year — have been flagged 23 times for 216 yards. The Bills gained 34 first downs this weekend, so Oakland's defense obviously has some work to do. The penalties, including five against Buffalo that directly created first downs, aren't helping. The game yielded 935 yards of total offense.
20. Minnesota Vikings [19] — Look, Viking fans. Obviously you haven't gotten the Donovan McNabb of five or ten years ago. But what do you expect from a QB in a new system, throwing to pretty much no one of any note besides Percy Harvin? McNabb's not the one who gave up 24 points to Tampa Bay in the second half. Getting Kevin Williams back next week should help.
21. Tennessee Titans [29] — Kenny Britt continues to be as productive as Chris Johnson is not. But how about some love for the defense that did what Pittsburgh couldn't in Week 1? Cortland Finnegan knocked down three passes. Rookie DT Karl Klug forced two fumbles. Dave Ball made two tackles for a loss. Dan Morgan and Ball each got two hits on Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco. If Matt Hasselbeck can steer the boat and CJ2K ever gets on track, the Titans could make a serious run at the postseason.
22. Denver Broncos [25] — Minus Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas, Elvis Dumervil, and Champ Bailey, they still held off the Bengals for a 24-22 victory. Willis McGahee rushed for 100 yards, Eric Decker had 100 receiving, and much-maligned Kyle Orton posted a 111.3 passer rating. Even punter Britton Colquitt had a big game: 6 punts, 51.0 net, no touchbacks. If the Broncos ever get everyone healthy and the Chargers continue to underachieve, Denver could make a run at the AFC West title.
23. St. Louis Rams [26] — Another impressive game from third-year LB James Laurinaitis, who was credited with 14 tackles (9 solo) against New York. Steve Spagnuolo obviously had some tricks ready for his old team, but St. Louis just didn't have the tools to pull off a win. Sam Bradford completed under 50% of his passes on Monday, no thanks to his punchless receiving corps. Greg Salas brings new levels of butter to the term butterfingers. He dropped several passes and muffed a punt that the Giants recovered to set up a touchdown. I don't know what Spags was thinking kicking a PAT to make it 28-16 at the end of the fourth quarter. What do you have to lose by going to for two there?
24. Cincinnati Bengals [24] — For all the things that Andy Dalton and the offense did well on Sunday, they also went a horrific 1/13 on third- and fourth-down conversions. Cincinnati has a wonderfully forgiving schedule coming up, with three of the next four at home and five of the next six against teams ranked 21st or lower here, the lone exception being an unproven Buffalo.
25. Cleveland Browns [31] — Offense was much better against Indy than Cincy, and good red zone defense repeatedly forced the Colts to settle for field goals. Peyton Hillis rushed for 94 yards and 2 TDs this weekend, but he's averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, down a full yard from last season (4.4). Until the Browns' passing game shows more life, though, Cleveland is going to face run-oriented defenses every week.
26. Indianapolis Colts [20] — The difference between the Colts with Peyton Manning and without him? Field goals. Adam Vinatieri kicked four field goals against Cleveland, three of them from inside 40 yards. Last year, at least a couple of those would have been touchdowns. Kerry Collins posted a 62.5 passer rating against the Browns, and that doesn't include his lost fumble.
27. Jacksonville Jaguars [22] — Maurice Jones-Drew played well against the Jets (88 yds, 4.9 avg), but he can't do it by himself. Luke McCown threw for 59 yards and 4 interceptions before he was mercifully pulled for rookie Blaine Gabbert. McCown's passer rating this year is 30.6, compared to 90.8 for David Garrard last season. Jack Del Río basically fired himself when he cut Garrard. There's no way the Jags are going to be competitive this year, and Del Río was already on the hot seat.
28. San Francisco 49ers [28] — Outgained 472-206 in their deceptively close loss on Sunday. Frank Gore is off to a deeply disappointing start (53 ypg, 2.5 yds/att, 6 rec), and there's still no receiving game. Vernon Davis presumably remains a weapon, but the Niners have to get him out of blocking situations if they're going to find out.
29. Arizona Cardinals [27] — Only lost by 1 at Washington, but they were outgained by 131 yards and lost time of possession by 17 minutes. Rex Grossman and a blocked field goal kept the game competitive, but the Cardinals have serious deficiencies, especially on defense. Jeff King made some nice plays on Sunday and should play a larger role in the passing game.
30. Carolina Panthers [32] — Cam Newton continues to exceed expectations, but he's still learning (3 INT vs. Green Bay), and the rest of the team has been just as bad as advertised. They can't run and the defense stinks. I do think they'll beat Jacksonville in Week 3. If Cam Newton and/or Steve Smith are available in your fantasy league, the time has come to add them to your roster. If you have DeAngelo Williams, the time has come to drop him, or at least to secure other options and hide him on your bench.
31. Kansas City Chiefs [21] — Outscored 89-10 in their first two games. Everyone has knee injuries, and Matt Cassel has been a disaster. What surprises me most is the regression by a defense that appeared poised to disappoint a lot of fantasy owners in 2011. Instead, it's just disappointing Chiefs fans.
32. Seattle Seahawks [30] — Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson took five sacks for the second week in a row, but he led the Seahawks in rushing (12 yards). So far this season, Marshawn Lynch is averaging 2.3 yards per carry and Justin Forsett 2.2. Michael Robinson and Leon Washington have a combined two carries for 0 yards. I haven't seen the Seahawks yet this season, but statistically, I'd say Jackson is maybe the best player on the offense. Let's not misplace blame here.
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September 20, 2011
Kevin Beane:
In my fantasy league took a flyer on Cam Newton after his week 1 performance. Now my QBs are Vick and Newton.
/patting myself on back
//0-2 anyway because my first two opponents have scored more than anyone else in the league.
September 20, 2011
Jake Fergus:
Dude watch a seahawks game taveris sucks. Our o-line is worse, our running backs get hit most times before they get the hand off
September 22, 2011
Larry:
You said:
Baltimore, which should have been an easy double-digit favorite, was only favored by six. Somehow, Vegas knew about the upset before it happened.
I say:
Correct, how much of what we watch is scripted? Is it live or is it Memorex? Big money or bigger money? Praytell, do say…
September 23, 2011
Brad Oremland:
Larry, I’m confident that none of it is scripted. There are too many parties who would have to be involved. You’ve never heard a current or former player, coach, or referee allege that they were personally involved in fixing NFL results, and with so many people involved, you couldn’t possibly hope to keep all of them quiet. The simple fact is that the NFL doesn’t need to fix games. The real product is already hugely profitable, and salaries are so high that it’s not realistic for gamblers to control results the way they did for baseball 100 years ago.
Has the NFL played with rule emphasis and other referee directives to help certain teams? I suspect they’ve tried, yeah (remember when they threatened to eject John Lynch if he didn’t play two-hand touch with the Colts’ receivers?). But outright manipulation of results? Almost certainly not.