NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Novak Djokovic is 64-2 this year, with 10 titles, including three Grand Slams. Incredible year. Congratulations to Djokovic and fellow U.S. Open champ Sam Stosur.

* Week 1 saw eight kickoffs and punts returned for touchdowns, the highest single-week total in NFL history. Hard to argue that moving kickoffs back to the 35 is less exciting.

* Daniel Snyder finally dropped his petty lawsuit against Washington's City Paper. Snyder's childishness and megalomania seem to be without any boundary, but maybe this is a sign of good things to come. If he would just sell the team, football fans could really celebrate.

* Fantasy bust of the week: Sideshow Chad. Tom Brady loves Wes Welker and Deion Branch.

* On Sunday night, Cris Collinsworth said of Michael Vick, "His ability to escape the pocket was just the difference in the game." The final was 31-13, big guy. This wasn't a 21-20 nailbiter. I think the Eagles might have won anyway.

***

With the Ravens getting a big win on Sunday afternoon, and the Falcons getting crushed by Chicago, NBC's Mike Florio revisited the comparison of Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. He suggested that although Ryan enjoys the superior reputation, their play is basically about equal. This was supported by a graphic showing their stats, effectively even. On TV, though, we have to simplify things, and some important numbers got left out.

Chart

Yes, those are almost exactly equal. The same applies to their rate stats.

Chart

Not only are these numbers similar, they are shockingly similar. It's almost incredible that you'd have two players whose stats are so much alike. Their rushing stats are also equivalent, a slight edge for Flacco (320 yds, 3 TDs) over Ryan (275 yds, 2 TDs). But wait...

Chart

When you look at net yardage — passing plus rushing minus sacks — Ryan is ahead by 305 yards. But I think Florio is basically correct. Ryan had a much better rookie season, and Flacco really has to excel to overcome that first impression. Ryan also plays with better receivers, so his numbers look better. But when you account for the impact of teammates, and maybe add an adjustment for postseason success, which favors Flacco (4-3) over Ryan (0-2), they do come out very close to equal. If you're drafting a fantasy team, I'd stick with Ryan for now, mostly because of Roddy White. On the actual field, there's not much difference.

Now on to the power rankings, with brackets showing each team's preseason rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — Combined with Miami for 906 net passing yards, the highest single-game total in NFL history. The two teams also combined for the second-highest total offense in history, the most in over 60 years. You'd like to see more from the defense, but even without longtime center Dan Koppen — last seen on crutches — this offense is simply on a different level than everyone else in the league. Except maybe...

2. Green Bay Packers [2] — Statement win on opening night; Aaron Rodgers looked amazing, and no defense in the league will have an easy time against this deep receiving corps. It is a bit of a concern, though, that the ground game still seems to be an afterthought, and it's a very legitimate concern that this great defense yielded 34 points, including 419 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 112.5 passer rating to Drew Brees. After only one game, we can chalk that up to the matchup for now, but most weeks, you can't allow a 64% third down conversion rate and expect to win.

3. Baltimore Ravens [7] — What a beatdown they laid on their biggest rival. The Steelers had 13 possessions in the game: 8 turnovers, 3 three-and-outs, a five-play drive with a punt, and 1 lonely touchdown. Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs all began the season at all-pro level. Almost as impressive as the defense, though, was an offense that rushed for 170 yards with a 5.5 average — last year's Steelers allowed just 62.8 per game and 3.0 per attempt — and committed no turnovers. Vonta Leach looks like a great pickup at fullback.

4. Philadelphia Eagles [6] — Michael Vick was obviously pleased with his performance against the Rams' defense, describing it as "lights out." He did rush for 98 yards, and looked as amazing as ever running with the ball. As a passer, his 35 attempts yielded 3 sacks, 14 completions, and 18 incompletions, with a blah passer rating of 83.7. Even with the runs, Vick's 265 yards on 45 plays works out to 5.89 per play, which is not even average, much less lights out. Last season, he averaged 6.89, a full yard higher. Flacco's career average is 5.91 per play; Ryan's is 6.04. Vick's athletic ability has never been in question, but his accuracy as a passer remains a potential weak point, and he still gets hit way too often.

5. Houston Texans [10] — Humiliated the Colts, even though they called off the dogs in the second half. The game was 34-0 at the end of the second quarter, which is about as dominant as you can get without running up the score. Ben Tate had a great game in Arian Foster's absence, and Andre Johnson was his usual self. Most impressive, though, may have been the new-look Houston defense, which held the Colts to 7 points, 236 yards, and 1-of-10 on third and fourth down.

6. New Orleans Saints [3] — Brees, as well as he played on Thursday night, was clearly the second-best quarterback on the field. This team has a terrific air attack, but it needs offensive balance with the running game to be competitive at the highest level. The pass rush, minus suspended DE Will Smith, looked pretty weak against Green Bay. Fantasy football players, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are attractive options until Marques Colston returns to the lineup.

7. San Diego Chargers [4] — Special teams woes continue, allowing a kickoff return TD and suffering a season-ending injury to Pro Bowl kicker Nate Kaeding. Defensive lineman Luis Castillo also suffered a serious injury, a broken leg. San Diego still has a ton of talent, though, and the defense showed up in a big way. Sure, 24-17 doesn't sound like a dominant win, but the Chargers gained more than twice as many yards as Minnesota (407-187) and more than three times as many first downs (31-10).

8. Pittsburgh Steelers [5] — Down 35-7 with less than 2:00 left, why was Ben Roethlisberger still in the game? You're obviously not going to win, and your man has been getting battered. Why risk the health of the QB in that situation? That said, I continue to believe the Steelers do themselves a disservice by leaning so heavily on Big Ben. This team is most successful when it relies on a stifling defense and a solid ground game. Bruce Arians needs to call more run plays.

9. New York Jets [9] — A nice comeback, sparked by a trio of turnovers, doesn't hide the poor state of the offense. The Jets gained only one rushing first down against Dallas, and Mark Sanchez continues to struggle with his consistency. The kid obviously has guts, but his play isn't developing the way other young QBs (like Flacco and Ryan) have shown in recent years. I'd like to see the defense go four quarters playing the way it did in the last 5 or 10 minutes.

10. Chicago Bears [12] — Surprisingly easy win over the Falcons, leading 30-6 after three quarters. QB Jay Cutler, who is consistently inconsistent, and RB Matt Forte, who's had two good seasons and one bad, both played well and put up big numbers. But the most impressive performances came from the defense, which sacked Matt Ryan five times — this from a QB who only took 23 sacks all of last year — and forced three turnovers, including a Brian Urlacher fumble return for a touchdown.

11. Atlanta Falcons [8] — They always play better at home, so the road loss in Chicago isn't cause for panic. Michael Turner had a great game, rushing 10 times for 100 yards and adding 40 more yards receiving. So why did Turner only get 10 carries, and Ryan dropped back 52 times? That's bad play-calling. I keep expecting John Abraham to get old and slow down, but he recorded two sacks against the Bears, and fellow defensive end Kroy Biermann scored on an INT return for the second season in a row. Awfully weak tackling by Sean Weatherspoon on Forte's 56-yard receiving TD.

12. Detroit Lions [17] — The running game remains a question mark, but the defense continues to improve, and the passing game is awash with dynamic young playmakers. Calvin Johnson is a sensation. Sunday's win, though, falls mostly on the defense, which held Tampa Bay to a pair of field goals and consistently provided good field position for an offense that, believe it or not, went 2-for-11 on third downs.

13. Dallas Cowboys [11] — Since the team's inception in 1960, the Cowboys were 241-0-1 when they led by 14 or more in the fourth quarter. Up 24-10 with 12:00 to play, and 24-17 with 1st-and-goal at the three, the Cowboys committed two turnovers and gave up a touchdown on a blocked punt in the last nine minutes. I love Jason Witten, but it sure looked like he could have scored on that long pass that set up the 1st-and-goal. Any receiver knows you slow down when you look behind you, but Witten had his head turned sideways starting at the 25-yard line. If he makes it two or three more yards, the Cowboys win that game.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [15] — Move up after a loss, mostly because it was less horrific than those of the Giants, Chiefs, and Colts. The offense, which looked so good last December, was in very poor form against Detroit. LeGarrette Blount only carried the ball five times, and the team gained only one first down on the ground. The Bucs lost time of possession by 13 minutes.

15. Miami Dolphins [18] — Yeah, they're up three spots from last week, even though they gave up 6,000 yards against New England. Chad Henne played well on Monday night, and the Dolphins' offense showed promise, while the defense simply cannot be as bad as it looked. Like the Bucs, Miami was more impressive in defeat than the Giants, Colts, etc.

16. Washington Redskins [27] — Rex Grossman looked good against the Giants, and the defense is obviously much improved from a year ago, but serious weaknesses remain. Tim Hightower averaged under three yards per carry on Sunday, and the receivers dropped a lot of passes. The defense still is not a great fit for Jim Haslett's 3-4 scheme. Barry Cofield was very effective in New York's 4-3, but he's not a nose tackle. In Week 1, the Giants' David Baas repeatedly handled Cofield, and nose tackles are supposed to draw double teams. Rookie Chris Neild, a seventh-round pick out of West Virginia, looks like a better fit in the middle.

17. New York Giants [13] — Injuries are an issue, but let's focus on one obvious problem: Eli Manning. This weekend, he passed for 268 yards and rushed for a touchdown, but he also lost 28 yards on sacks, threw an interception, didn't throw any touchdowns, and finished with a 70.8 passer rating. Most damningly, the Giants went 1-for-11 on third and fourth downs. Manning has always committed too many turnovers, but he's usually been productive enough to compensate. After a poor finish last year and a slow preseason, his performance has to worry Giants fans.

18. Oakland Raiders [22] — Jason Campbell seems like a good fit for the offense, and Darren McFadden picked up where he left off in 2010. But if Sebastian Janikowski had missed his record-tying 63-yard field goal, this game might have gone to overtime. It was a positive start to the season, but not a dominant win. I realize some calls have to be made, but Jerome Boger's officiating crew sucked a lot of the fun out of this game, calling 25 penalties for 222 yards.

19. Minnesota Vikings [19] — Defense isn't the same without the Williams Wall, who have one more week left on their suspensions. But perhaps the most obvious problem is that the offense was totally one-dimensional in Week 1. Adrian Peterson played well (98 yds, 6.1 avg), but Donovan McNabb had more yards rushing (32) than passing (28), including 2 sacks for 11 yards. It's appropriate for the offense to revolve around Peterson, but you can't just give up on the air attack the way they did in San Diego. Erin Henderson had 6 solo tackles and 3 tackles for a loss, including a sack, against the Chargers.

20. Indianapolis Colts [16] — The team obviously is not as bad as its Week 1 meltdown implied, but now that we know Peyton Manning will miss most or all of the season, are aging stars like Jeff Saturday, Reggie Wayne, and Dwight Freeney enough to keep the Colts in contention? It seems unlikely. This whole offense revolves around Manning, and the defense had a rough outing in Week 1, as well.

21. Kansas City Chiefs [14] — You hope Matt Cassel was affected by his rib injury. The Chiefs went 7-1 at home last year, losing only the Week 17 finale when they already had the division title clinched. Playing a team no one expected much from, Kansas City laid an egg of epic proportions, getting humiliated 41-7. Maybe it was Cassel's rib, or just overconfidence and overlooking an opponent they didn't respect, but if the Chiefs want people to believe that last year was more than just a fluke, they've got to pick things up in a hurry. DB Eric Berry is out for the year with a torn ACL.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars [20] — I still can't believe they cut David Garrard, and Luke McCown's decent showing against Tennessee doesn't change my belief that the team is worse without him. But Maurice Jones-Drew had a nice game, and the Titans got nothing out of their ground game. Jacksonville won time of possession by more than 19 minutes. The Jags travel to New York to face the Jets in Week 2, and I'll be interested to see how the offense holds up in that one. They'll need another big showing from MJD.

23. Buffalo Bills [30] — Strong performances from Ryan Fitzpatrick (4 TD, 113.5 rating) and Fred Jackson (112 yds, 5.6 avg) in the opener. The real credit, though, goes to a defense that held the Chiefs to seven points at home. KC gained just 213 yards and 13 first downs, and Cassel's passer rating was a dismal 64.5. Safety Bryan Scott led the team in tackles, with three for a loss, including one sack. Who misses Donte Whitner?

24. Cincinnati Bengals [26] — It's easy to forget that they won the AFC North two years ago. Carson Palmer was still in town, Cedric Benson rushed for 1,251 yards, and Mike Zimmer's defense kept opponents off-balance. Benson got off to a great start against the Browns (121 yds, 4.8 avg, TD), and the defense looks good. Two out of three ain't bad. Reggie Nelson led the team in tackles (7 solo), adding a sack and two pass deflections.

25. Denver Broncos [24] — The fans gleefully chanting Tim Tebow's name during a TD drive should be sterilized. Kyle Orton is the best option at quarterback. Elvis Dumervil's return to the lineup was short-lived, as he jammed a shoulder in the first quarter and barely played afterwards. The Broncos need him healthy if they're going to be competitive this year. Brian Dawkins, who turns 38 next month, impressed me on Monday night. He led the Broncos in tackles and supplied the most effective pass rush pressure after Dumervil got hurt.

26. St. Louis Rams [21] — Sam Bradford is the most overrated player in the NFL right now. Last season, he was a solidly below-average quarterback (25th in passer rating) who choked in his biggest game. This week, he looked lost against the Eagles, with a 75.4 passer rating and 4 sacks — not including the "rush" on which he fumbled and Philadelphia recovered for a touchdown. I'm not trying to beat up on Bradford, because he's just a second-year player and he's still learning, but his Offensive Rookie of the Year selection was an embarrassment, and this weekend Peter King called him the Rams' "most valuable player by far". That's ridiculous. How about Steven Jackson, or James Laurinaitis, or any number of other players? Bradford was one of several Rams injured in the loss, and this ranking reflects that.

27. Arizona Cardinals [25] — Did a nice job limiting the Panthers' run game, which had to be their plan coming in, but it's not impressive that they allowed over 400 yards and a 110.4 passer rating to rookie Cam Newton. I mean, how do you not realize that Steve Smith (178 yds, 2 TDs) needs to be covered? The pass defense already misses Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells did what Cardinal fans wanted to see, but there's a lot of room for improvement here.

28. San Francisco 49ers [28] — A pair of returns TDs by Ted Ginn clinched their game against Seattle. The defense played well, and obviously the special teams looked good, but the offense wasn't able to do much against a Seahawk defense that last year ranked 27th in yardage and 25th in scoring. San Francisco scored 33 points this weekend, but with only one offensive touchdown — the rest was David Akers and Ginn. The Niners went 1-of-12 on third down conversions.

29. Tennessee Titans [23] — Nine losses in their last 10 regular season games. The Titans punted on six of their first seven drives against Jacksonville; the other was a missed field goal. Barrett Ruud (14 tackles) and Kenny Britt (136 yds, 2 TD) played well on Sunday, but Chris Johnson rushed for just 24 yards (2.9 avg), without making up for it as a receiver (25 yds), and it's hard to imagine this team being competitive if he's not in top form.

30. Seattle Seahawks [29] — The offense was atrocious against San Francisco. New QB Tarvaris Jackson struggled (78.3 rating, 5 sacks), and the run game was virtually non-existent. Special teams coverage, however, is the obvious point of emphasis following a pair of return TDs late in the fourth quarter.

31. Cleveland Browns [31] — D'Qwell Jackson showed up. He recorded 10 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble against the Bengals. But Cincinnati QBs Andy Dalton and Bruce Gradkowski combined for a 99.8 passer rating, and Benson broke a 39-yard touchdown run at the most critical moment in the game. Offensively, Colt McCoy completed under half his passes, and Peyton Hillis rushed for just 57 yards, with a 3.4 average and no scores. A disappointing start for a team hoping to take a step forward in 2011.

32. Carolina Panthers [32] — As if this team needed anything else to go wrong, its best player, LB Jon Beason, will miss the rest of the season with a torn Achilles' tendon. The Panthers have to be pleased with Cam Newton's performance, but on Thursday night, I watched Drew Brees out-gain Aaron Rodgers by 100 yards, because Brees threw 49 passes to Rodgers' 35. This is the same reason Eli Manning throws for so many yards: he passes a lot. Cam Newton threw for 422 yards against the Cardinals, and obviously that's a hell of a debut. But when you play a poor defense — one that traded away its best CB in the offseason and is focused on stopping the run — and drop back 46 times, and nail a 77-yarder on one of them, you're going to throw for a lot of yards. Let's see how Newton does against Green Bay before we declare him the greatest rookie of all time.

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Comments and Conversation

September 14, 2011

Andrew Jones:

Nice analysis. I’m a little surprised in your faith in the Redskins though. Also, half of the Williams Wall, (meaning Pat) will not be returning to the Minnesota Vikings. He’s currently an unsigned free agent.

September 15, 2011

Brad Oremland:

I agree with you about Washington, Andrew, and I’m not happy having them so high. But someone has to be 16th, and I have even less faith in the Colts, Giants, Raiders, etc. I actually considered Minnesota in that spot, but how do you move a team up three places after a loss like that?

September 16, 2011

Andrew Jones:

I can’t argue with you there Brad. Minnesota’s second half offense against San Diego was one of the most pathetic displays I’ve ever seen.

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