The final slam of the year has crowned its champion once more, and your average tennis fan breathes a sigh of relief. The season is over. Bring on the Australian Open.
But activity at Melbourne Park is four months away, and hardly a player on tour will spare it a thought. There is still work to be done, still a trophy glittering in the distance which would be the pinnacle of many a career, but for some, that door is already closed for the year.
For the rest, the heat has been turned up a notch. The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals are just around the corner, and spaces are limited. It's a first come, first served basis kind of place.
For those who are unfamiliar with the qualification system, here's how it works: every player attempts to accumulate as many points as they can from January 1st, and by the time November rolls around, the eight players who have gained the most points will compete at the O2 Arena in London.
And what an event it is. With a possible 1500 ranking points at stake for an unbeaten champion, playing against the best players in the world, it is the most prestigious tournament a player can win, behind the four slams.
Trouble is, with the U.S. Open over, there are only two big tournaments left, along with a smattering of other, smaller tournaments, in which to grab as many points as possible. And with only four places still available, the hunt is on.
Shanghai and Paris are next up, and they usually end up being the most interesting Masters 1000 tournaments, because of the large number of upsets. Paris in particular. Since the turn of the century, it has been won by nine different players, and never by a current world No. 1.
Don't get me wrong, there are some big names in there. Today's No. 1, Novak Djokovic won in 2009, Robin Soderling, Nadal's Roland Garros conqueror took the title last year. Former world number 1 Marat Safin took the title three times here. Even so, it's a place primed for upsets.
When it comes down to it, the eight players who consistently performed the best since the start of the year will make the cut. Who those players will be is still in flux. Here's the potential lineup:
1) Novak Djokovic (Qualified)
With such an exceptional record this year, Djokovic qualified early, with the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and U.S. Open titles under his belt, along with a handful of others. Hard to look beyond Nolé for the title to be honest.
2) Rafael Nadal (Qualified)
This year hasn't been Rafa's best, but even so, he took the Roland Garros title for the sixth time, along with a sixth Monte Carlo Masters 1000, and his fifth title in his (relatively speaking) home tournament at Barcelona. He's reached six other finals, but been beaten by Djokovic in all of them. He's definitely going to be a major contender this year.
3) Andy Murray (Qualified)
It's been a rollercoaster year for Murray, but, when it's really mattered, he's hit good form. At the slams this year, he's managed three semifinals (losing all of them to Nadal) and the Australian Open final, losing out to now No. 1 Novak Djokovic. He is also one of two players to beat Novak Djokovic this year. He's performed well at the O2 arena the last couple of years, so expect him to go beyond the round robin stages.
4) Roger Federer (Qualified)
Fourth to qualify in 2011, he won the title at the end of last year, beating Nadal in a nail biting thriller of a final. He reached the French Open final this year, and two other grand slam semis, and is the only man besides Murray to this year to beat Novak Djokovic. He's past his peak now at 30-years-old, but still as dangerous as ever.
5) David Ferrer
A journeyman if ever there was one, Ferrer has been in and around the mix for quite some time now, mainly winning on the clay, and no mug on the hard courts, either. He didn't win a match at his last outing at the O2, but after a good showing at the Australian Open and a number of other tournaments this year, expect him to qualify.
Well, the first five guys were easy enough to place. Consistently done well over a number of years, and their spots are near enough set in stone. It's a tough call who will grab those last three spots though. Here are my predictions:
6) Mardy Fish
I picked Fish a little while ago, and he's since overtaken some big contenders in the race so far, like Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and Nicolas Almagro, and the Minnesotan native has been on fire this year. He's been excellent on the hard courts, and he's been challenging the top players in almost every event this year. He's got the determination to get there, and I think it'll be good to see a new face at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals this year.
7) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
I originally picked Del Potro and Thomas Berdych to make their second appearances at the World Tour Finals, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has picked up his game for the slams, particularly Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, making the semis and quarters respectively and losing out to Djokovic and Federer, and it's a surprise he hasn't made the year end finale before. His game has been a bit hit-and-miss in the past, but he's really hit his stride, and he's now more of a hit-and-win kind of guy. His explosive game is going to really challenge some of the guys at the O2.
8) Robin Soderling
His 2009 victory over Nadal at Roland Garros will be remembered for years to come, and it was that victory which threw him into the spotlight, and he has flourished ever since. He's made it to the World Tour Finals on two occasions now, and made it to the semis on his first appearance, but failed to progress beyond the round robin last year. Soderling's main problem is that he was ill at the U.S. Open and so failed to pick up any points. It's going to be a bit of a scrabble now, where before it seemed his place was guaranteed. Czech Thomas Berdych may pip him to the post.
These may be my picks for the year-end finale, but there's a long way to go yet, and plenty of great players in the mix, and plenty of fight left in all of them. Keep your eyes peeled. It's going to be a good one.
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