The lockout is over, the schedule didn't expand to 18 games, and the real games are about to start. Let's jump right into this. The rankings below are for right now, beginning-of-season strength, and not necessarily a forecast of each team's success over the course of the whole year. However, the brackets show predicted regular-season record, and you'll find postseason predictions at the bottom.
1. New England Patriots [13-3] — Last season, dealing with injuries and a high-profile holdout, the Patriots went 14-2 and outscored their opponents by over 200 points. New England's 65 touchdowns were by far the most in the league (Chargers and Colts, 51), and the fourth-most in history. The team suffered no significant free agent departures, but it did make some major offseason additions, including Shaun Ellis and Albert Haynesworth. They play a nasty schedule, but to the extent anything about the Patriots concerns me, it's age and durability. Will this team be able to perform as well in December and January as it does with fresh legs? Right now, that's a trivial worry. This team is loaded.
2. Green Bay Packers [11-5] — I don't like to pick repeat champs. Why? Because it almost never happens. A 16-game schedule is tough enough on the players' bodies. Playing 19-20 games, with a month less of offseason time to recover, is positively debilitating. Plus, when you win it all, everyone is gunning for you. But the Packers have the kind of firepower to deal with all that. Their defense will look a little different this year, and some of the losses will hurt, but the offense may be even more devastating this time around. Last year, the Packers' running game was a formality. Ryan Grant played one quarter before a season-ending injury, and James Starks didn't emerge until the playoffs. Right now, they're both ready to go. As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, the Packers are the team to beat in the NFC.
3. New Orleans Saints [12-4] — Most years, elite teams get raided during the offseason. Free agency offers the have-nots a chance to catch up to all the haves. I don't know how much of this can be attributed to the lockout, but this offseason doesn't seem to have worked that way. The Saints, like New England, actually seem to have gotten better since the end of last season. Standout DE Will Smith is suspended for the first two games, but the defensive line added Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin and should be very strong anyway. Drew Brees had a down season in 2010 (22 INT), the running backs were in constant flux, and the team was facing all the hardships that come with defending a Super Bowl championship. Last year, the Saints lost their first playoff game and got a long offseason. That could work to their benefit in 2011 — maybe even 2012.
4. San Diego Chargers [12-4] — Last season, the Chargers were devastated by special teams mistakes, holdouts, and injuries, most notably to Antonio Gates. This year, coming off a long offseason and facing a second-place schedule, look for the team to rebound in a big way. This offense is stacked with talent, and the reloading defense was addressed by using the team's first three draft picks on defensive players. Philip Rivers, like Tom Brady and Rodgers and Brees, is one of those players who doesn't need a whole lot of help. But in San Diego, he doesn't have to win by himself. There are a lot of good players on this team, and if it can avoid the lapses and mistakes that sunk the team in 2010, there's no reason it can't contend for a championship. I wrote this last year, too, but I just don't see how anyone else wins the AFC West.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers [11-5] — Basically the same team that made it to Super Bowl XLV, so you have to expect that they'll be pretty good again. This defense is just amazing, across the board, and if young offensive stars like Rashard Mendenhall and Mike Wallace continue to improve, the sky's the limit (provided Ben Roethlisberger can stay healthy and out of trouble). I have a feeling, though — this is my gut, not my head — that they're due for a slip-up this season. Maybe it's just the Super Bowl loser curse, come to rear its ugly head after 19 games, or maybe it's the Ravens taking the next step, or maybe it's all in my imagination. But certainly there's a great deal of talent here, and a no-nonsense coaching staff with a single-minded focus on winning. Until further notice, this remains one of the best teams in the NFL. A forgiving schedule could mitigate whatever hardships lie ahead.
6. Philadelphia Eagles [11-5] — If they wanted to upgrade the pass defense, I'd say they did a fine job. Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie aren't the only additions to help Philadelphia against opposing passers. The Eagles used two of their first three draft choices on DBs, and free agent defensive linemen Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins are impact players. Philadelphia quietly lost some good players, too — most notably safety Quintin Mikell — and it's hard to believe Michael Vick can replicate his performance from last season, or stay healthy for 16 games. But certainly the Eagles look poised to compete at the highest level.
7. Baltimore Ravens [11-5] — They've made the divisional round of the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, so they're obviously doing something right. But some of the players this team has built around have begun slowing down, and some of them aren't around at all any more. There are two dynamic stars, shining lights on both sides of the ball: running back Ray Rice and safety Ed Reed. Last season, the Ravens simply didn't get the ball into Rice's hands often enough. He's a gifted runner, and when he gets into open space as a receiver, Rice is always a threat to score. Reed, when healthy, is perhaps the most dominant defensive player in the NFL, a ballhawk nonpareil. The Ravens can contend if Rice is managed properly, Reed is 100%, and QB Joe Flacco continues to improve.
8. Atlanta Falcons [10-6] — A lot of things broke right in 2010, when the team went 13-3. The Saints had a bit of a down year, the Panthers were a pair of free wins, and they got four games against the mild, mild NFC West. They won most of their close games, and just about everyone stayed healthy. You don't get that kind of luck two years in a row. Are the Falcons a good team? Of course they are. But can they repeat last year's level of success? No. The team will miss offensive lineman Harvey Dahl, who left in free agency.
9. New York Jets [9-7] — Suffered multiple defections to division rivals. Shaun Ellis and James Ihedigbo joined the Patriots. Brad Smith left for Buffalo. Even punter Steve Weatherford, who last year set a record for kicks downed inside the 20-yard line, defected to the regional rival Giants. Can young players like Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene take the next step to compensate for the free agency losses and the dwindling skills of veterans like Derrick Mason (37), Plaxico Burress (34), and LaDainian Tomlinson (32)? The Jets are a fierce team, but it's hard not to see them taking at least a small step backwards this year.
10. Houston Texans [10-6] — The defense has been holding them back, but there's reason to expect major improvements in 2011. Wade Phillips is in town as the new defensive coordinator. DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams are back from injury, and Brian Cushing isn't suspended. Former Bengal Johnathan Joseph upgrades the secondary, and rookies J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed are penciled in as Week 1 starters. If Arian Foster is okay and Peyton Manning is shaky, I see Houston as the team to beat in the AFC South.
11. Dallas Cowboys [9-7] — Parted this offseason with a number of veterans, including Andre Gurode, Marion Barber, Marc Colombo, and Igor Olshansky. If the revamped offensive line holds up and Tony Romo stays on the field — both definite ifs — then the offense figures to be explosive. I'm particularly interested to see what Dez Bryant can do in a full season, and I hope Tashard Choice will finally start getting some touches now that Barber is out of the picture. But I don't think the team has done enough to address its defense, which last season allowed the most points in team history.
12. Chicago Bears [7-9] — Last year, a lot of things broke right for the Bears, and they overcame the 30th-ranked offense in the NFL to finish 11-5 and win the NFC North. You don't get that kind of good fortune two years in a row. Jay Cutler got sacked 52 times last season, by far the most in the NFL (Joe Flacco, 40), and this season, he's either going to start forcing the ball out of his hand and tossing even more INTs than usual, or he's going to get hurt. The defense is getting old, and the new kickoff rules should reduce Devin Hester's impact in the return game. Plus, the Lions and Vikings are going to be better this year, and the Bears open the season with three straight games against playoff teams. They also have to play in London this season.
13. New York Giants [8-8] — Maybe it seems weird to lead with the new punter, but after suffering through a year of Matt Dodge, Weatherford represents a major upgrade for the Giants and their fans. The offensive line, together for what seemed like an eternity, has been shaken up as well. Gone are center Shaun O'Hara and guard Rich Seubert, replaced by former 49er David Baas (a very quick C/G) and third-year player Will Beatty, a bit of a question mark at left tackle. The Giants led the league in turnovers last season. Luck plays a role in such things, so maybe the Giants are due for a turnaround. But I don't trust the defense, and I don't trust Eli Manning.
14. Kansas City Chiefs [8-8] — Even with Tony Moeaki on injured reserve, the receiving corps is coming together. Dwayne Bowe certainly is a weapon, and former Cardinals Jerheme Urban and Steve Breaston give the team solid second options. Add in first-round draft choice Jon Baldwin and Jamaal Charles out of the backfield, and Matt Cassel will have plenty of targets if his ribs are okay. Aside from Charles, though, what I really like about this team is the young, talented defense. The Chiefs are still waiting for Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson to take the next step, but if they ever do — watch out, AFC.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [8-8] — I am very high on Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount, both of whom were fantastic at the end of the 2010 season. But I also expect some regression to the mean from a team that played a cupcake schedule last season. Third-round draft choice Mason Foster is stepping in for MLB Barrett Ruud, and the pass rush is a jumble of question marks: Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers are rookies, and Michael Bennett is an undrafted third-year player with two career starts. Tim Crowder had a nice preseason, but he's mostly been a backup over his four NFL seasons. Ronde Barber is 36 now, playing a position that calls for speed. It's hard to have confidence in a defense with so many unknowns. The Bucs lose a home game to Wembley Stadium this year. Forty points seem low as the over/under in their Week 1 matchup with Detroit.
16. Indianapolis Colts [9-7] — Look, obviously the question here is Peyton Manning. If he's healthy, they should probably be regarded as a top-10 team and the favorite in the AFC South. If Kerry Collins starts more than two games, or Peyton never gets fully right, it's hard to see how this team is even above average.
17. Detroit Lions [7-9] — Certainly they showed improvement last season, and there's reason for optimism. But the Lions are one of those teams it's tempting to overrate. They have exciting young players at the high-profile offensive "skill" positions, and a young star on defense in Ndamukong Suh, but many of the problems that have deviled this team over the years are still present. In particular, the defense looks very vulnerable, and if something happens to Calvin Johnson or Suh, this whole thing is going to come crashing down. Fragile QB Matthew Stafford remains an unknown quantity, and if he struggles or gets hurt again, this team is going to disappoint a lot of people. I think the Lions are still a year or two away.
18. Miami Dolphins [7-9] — Making progress, steadily but slowly. The defense may be ready to come together — it's an interesting sleeper in fantasy leagues — but the offense still has a lot to prove. Most obviously, Chad Henne needs to show improvement. It would also help if someone emerges as a secondary receiving threat to take some pressure off Brandon Marshall, and the running game is a huge question mark in the hands of rookie Daniel Thomas and should-be-a-wide-receiver Reggie Bush.
19. Minnesota Vikings [8-8] — They begin the season minus three of their four starting defensive linemen from 2010: Ray Edwards left in free agency, and the Williams Wall is suspended for the first two games. The team also cut Madieu Williams, last season's Walter Payton Man of the Year. Which, I guess you have to do what's best for the team, but what a message to send to players and fans. Donovan McNabb steps in at quarterback, and he can't possibly be as bad as Brett Favre was last year.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars [7-9] — Let's start by admitting something. If David Garrard were white, the team would not have drafted Blaine Gabbert in the first round. Garrard is shockingly underrated, a QB who consistently plays well despite an incredible lack of talent in his receiving corps. Here, which of these two sets of career stats looks better? The numbers are combined passing and rushing statistics (including sacks).
I'd take A, but either way, it's close, right? Player A is Garrard; B is Eli Manning. Why does one of these guys have a rep as a very good QB, and the other as a guy who needs to be replaced? Consider, too, that Manning has played with a very strong supporting cast, and Garrard mostly just with good running backs. Last season, Garrard posted a 90.8 passer rating and accounted for almost twice as many TDs (28) as INTs (15). I'm not accusing the Jaguars organization of racism; I think almost everyone shorts Garrard, and I do believe race plays a role in that. Public opinion, in turn, shapes the team's personnel decisions.
So I think the Jags wasted their first-round draft pick. But they did some nice things to boost the defense in free agency, and the offense should be okay if Maurice Jones-Drew stays healthy. Expect this to be Jack Del Río's last season with the team.
21. St. Louis Rams [8-8] — Made two free agent signings I really liked: right guard Harvey Dahl and strong safety Quintin Mikell, two low-profile impact players. I think the hype has gotten ahead of itself in St. Louis, but the rest of the division is so bad, the Rams probably have to be the early favorite.
22. Oakland Raiders [6-10] — They were moving in the right direction at the end of last season, but the team cleverly managed to undo most of the progress, firing its best coach since Jon Gruden and losing two of its best players (Nnamdi Asomugha and Zach Miller) to free agency. There are still some exciting players on the roster, but too many weak points. Watch for the Raiders to show a disappointing regression in '11.
23. Tennessee Titans [7-9] — Lost eight of their last nine to close last season, and while I think Jeff Fisher mishandled the team in recent years, I'm not impressed early with new coach Mike Munchak. Barrett Ruud steps in for Stephen Tulloch at middle linebacker, which I think is basically a wash, but leading pass rusher Jason Babin also departed in free agency, and that hurts. I worry less about the defense, though; the real question is a new-look offense with Matt Hasselbeck under center. If Hasselbeck gels with his receivers, and the team can keep its collective head on straight, it could really surprise people this season.
24. Denver Broncos [6-10] — Sorely missed Elvis Dumervil returns to the lineup after missing the 2010 season with a chest injury. Longtime Panthers head coach John Fox takes over as HC, and I expect him to steady the boat a bit in Denver. Perhaps the most interesting storyline will be the play of Brandon Lloyd, who last season led the NFL in receiving yards (1,448), but whose career has been marked by inconsistency. I hope the team will commit to Kyle Orton at QB. He looked awfully good for most of last season.
25. Arizona Cardinals [6-10] — Kevin Kolb has to be awfully good to justify trading away Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. It's incredible how poorly Cardinal QBs were able to perform last season with a talent like Larry Fitzgerald to throw to. It's not even Week 1, and the team already has injury issues. I assume Kolb will be an upgrade over last year's horror show, but I don't think he makes enough difference for them to be a contender.
26. Cincinnati Bengals [5-11] — Cut ties with Terrell Owens and Sideshow Chad in a single offseason, which you've got to like. But they also watched Carson Palmer retire at age 31, after just seven full seasons, and now enter 2011 with a rookie QB in a division that includes the Steelers and Ravens. Could be a long year.
27. Washington Redskins [6-10] — I liked their offseason. Oshiomogho Atogwe isn't an elite DB, but he represents a desperately needed upgrade to a secondary that was among the league's worst in 2010. Barry Cofield was a major signing on the defensive line, former Steeler Keyaron Fox and rookie Ryan Kerrigan bolster the linebacking corps, and Sav Rocca gives the team its first good punter since Matt Turk in the '90s. All that said, there's only so far this offense can go. Rex Grossman does not inspire confidence and the running back stable is empty, while aging Santana Moss and injury-rocked Chris Cooley are the only viable receivers. The offensive line can't possibly suffer as many injuries as last season, but that's a point of concern, as well.
28. San Francisco 49ers [6-10] — It is nothing less than stunning that they enter yet another season with Alex Smith as the starting QB. I mean, the guy is entering his seventh season. If he was going to become a good pro player, it would have happened by now. Smith is effective out of the shotgun, and a disaster everywhere else. It's mind-boggling that a team with playoff aspirations doesn't go after someone else. Half the teams in the league have a better QB sitting on the bench. The 49ers picked up former Bills safety Donte Whitner in free agency, which was a nice move, but they also lost two of their best linemen, Baas on offense and Franklin on defense.
29. Seattle Seahawks [5-11] — Parted with leaders on both sides of the ball, releasing Lofa Tatupu and letting Hasselbeck walk in free agency. There are a lot of young players with upside in Seattle, but they need to take the next step if the Seahawks are going to be any good this season.
30. Buffalo Bills [5-11] — Addressed their defense in the offseason, using their first four draft picks on defenders and adding former Packer Nick Barnett in free agency. I actually like this defense a lot, especially the DBs. But the offense is going to be terrible. I have no faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick.
31. Cleveland Browns [5-11] — The offense remains extremely limited, with a second-year QB throwing to a group of lackluster receivers. I want to be optimistic about the Browns, but there's just not a ton of talent on the roster right now. The AFC North has a light schedule this season, but this division remains a brutal place for a rebuilding team.
32. Carolina Panthers [3-13] — The worst team in the league last season, with a good chance to repeat in 2011. I hate their defense, and rookie QB Cam Newton has neither the weapons nor the experience to be successful this season.
Playoff Predictions
AFC Playoffs
Wild Card: PITTSBURGH def. New York Jets, Baltimore def. HOUSTON
Divisional: NEW ENGLAND def. Baltimore, SAN DIEGO def. Pittsburgh
Championship: NEW ENGLAND def. San Diego
NFC Playoffs
Wild Card: PHILADELPHIA def. Dallas, Atlanta def. ST. LOUIS
Divisional: NEW ORLEANS def. Atlanta, GREEN BAY def. Philadelphia
Championship: NEW ORLEANS def. Green Bay
Super Bowl XLVI: New England Patriots def. New Orleans Saints
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