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September 30, 2011

2011-12 College Basketball Preview

As the NBA lockout makes little progress and rumors about players heading overseas abound, college basketball awaits, ready to play because you can't get locked out when you don't make any money.

Simultaneously, through college football programs, the conferences of the NCAA are being ripped apart. Consequently, college basketball programs sit back, waiting to see which conference they'll end up in because it seems like there is no boundary. For all we know, the defending champion Connecticut Huskies may end up in the Pac-10 or Pac-12 or Pac-39 for all we know.

And we as fans sit back, wondering when the smoke will clear, not really caring about the landscape of college basketball because most of us don't start paying attention until late February anyway.

Well, the time is coming to start paying attention, far earlier than February. Why? Because of the first thing I mentioned, the NBA lockout.

Speculation looms as to whether the season will start on time, and if not when it will start and some are even going so far as to say there may not be a season. Gasp! The NBA needs a season. If it doesn't have one the global market will explode and professional basketball will likely become more like soccer in logistics, with a champions league and the best players spread over numerous professional clubs.

Maybe that's a good thing in the long wrong. Maybe not. But the NBA can't possible believe it to be a good thing to lose control over the vast majority of the basketball talent the world has to offer.

So, why should we start paying attention to college basketball now? Because it is the only basketball season that will be televised in the United States this fall, winter, and spring. If you love basketball, the college game will be all you have. Sure, ESPN may throw up a highlight of Deron Williams in Istanbul, donning the black and white of Besiktas. Or Kobe Bryant may end up in Italy and get some air time. Or we may see some more Kevin Durant street ball. But will that really be enough? No. It won't.

So if you're going to start paying attention to college basketball, there are probably a few things you should know before the season starts so that you don't look foolish in front of your friends ... and probably a few you don't really need to know, but you want to sound clever, don't you?

1. The coolest venue for a game of any sport will take place when Michigan State faces North Carolina onboard the USS Carl Vinson, an aircraft carrier. Seriously. How cool is that? The game is on 11/11/11.

2. Butler has made it to the national championship game each of the last two seasons, losing to Duke in 2010 and UConn in 2011. Do not expect them to make it back. Do not even assume they will make the field of 68. They obviously have a great program, but they lost a ton of talent and leadership and that will be very difficult for them to overcome.

3. Jokes about being Jimmered are so last year.

4. A young man playing for the Northwestern State Demons named William Mosley average 4.9 blocks per game last season. He had three games with double-digit blocks. The last time he didn't record a block was on January 23, 2010. This guy must be 7'4" right? Wrong. He's 6'7".

5. UConn will not repeat as champions. After going .500 in the Big East last year, the Huskies got hot at the right time and took home the title, riding on Kemba Walker who was drafted ninth overall into the locked-out NBA, despite having a year of eligibility left. Everybody seems to expect Shabazz Napier to take Walker's place as the scoring stud of UConn, putting up 20-25 points per game. However, Napier was cut a few days ago from the United States World University Games team, coached by Matt Painter of Purdue. Maybe there was a chemistry problem, but if he's ready to be the next Kemba Walker, he wouldn't have been cut. Maybe in 2013, he'll have his game together.

6. BYU has reinstated Brandon Davies both to the school and to the basketball team. But being Jimmer-less will mean the Cougars will be mediocre at best. Davies is a role player who can't carry the team; neither can anyone else on the team.

7. Here are some mid-majors (or maybe lower than mid-majors) you can expect to make some noise in March: Montana, Harvard, Creighton, Long Beach State, and Iona.

8. There is a lot of talk about which conference will be the best. Some say Big East, others stick with ACC, and some even are talking about the depleted Big 12 or Big 9 or whatever they're called now to be the best. The gigantic Big East will never be the best conference when Rutgers, Providence, South Florida, and DePaul are all terrible and haven't really been good for quite a while. When one-fourth of your conference is bad, you can't be the best conference in my opinion. Providence had their moments last year, but they've lost Marshon Brooks, the second-best scorer in the nation in 2010-11.

The ACC has much more balance from top to bottom. Wake Forest is certainly in the cellar, but that was only last season, they were in the tournament the year before, so I think the nod has to go to the ACC over the Big East.

The Big 12 doesn't have the power at the top that they other conferences have. The Big 12 has Kansas and that's kind of it for powerhouses. So if any of your friends ask, "Which conference do you think is the best?" You have your arguments.

9. Even with LaQuinton Ross being declared ineligible due to academic shortcomings, Ohio State still has a fantastic recruiting class and will still be my favorites in the Big Ten. But expect the Minnesota Golden Gophers to put together a decent season. I'm not saying they'll be a contender for the title, but Sweet 16 or Elite Eight is not out of the question for Tubby Smith's team. If they don't perform, expect Tubby to be searching for another job, simply because he's tired of losing.

I'm looking forward to a solid season, potentially with more games on TV as the NBA fights over money and leads itself towards its own demise. But as always, expect March to be a month of insanity and excitement.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 1:32 PM | Comments (6)

Vin Mazzaro, Abuse Victim

Yes, I'm looking forward to the postseason. Yes, I've been enjoying even the execrable wild card turning what most of the world predicted to be a boring September into a near-classic nail-biter. Never mind that the nail-biting has been caused by a pair of former locks decimated by injuries and inconsistency falling from out in the distance to right out of the running, in hand with a pair of thought-to-be also-rans surging up from almost nowhere to give the former locks a real run for it.

And, yes, I could point to a small passel of moments to remember ranging from the sacred to the profane and all the way back to the extraterrestrial. Ben Revere's double-gainer triple? Beautiful. David Ortiz v. Kevin Gregg for the baseball world babyweight championship? Knockout. The Cleveland bullpen squirrel? Nuts. Justin Upton's self-portrait in Broke-bat Mash'em? Oscar-worthy. The Pittsburgh Pirates actually sitting in first place for a spell? Priceless. Evan Longoria's walk-off driving home the collapse that may cost the most successful manager in Boston Red Sox history his job? Don't ask.

The one that has them all beat for extraterrestrial surreality (there isn't that much surreality about the Red Sox and the Atlanta Braves's self-immolations) is probably the one Vin Mazzaro would love to forget. And you can't blame him. Except that I and a lot of other people, Kansas City Royals fans or otherwise, can't forget. Is there anyone on earth who can explain precisely why Royals manager Ned Yost — whose team had been one of the pleasant surprises of the American League otherwise to that point — left Mazzaro on May 16 to take what only charity would call a rough outing?

Rough outing, my bunion. Mazzaro was beaten to death and back, and if there was anything left over the Indians beat that to death and back, too. The Indians drove the Royals below the floor of the ocean, 19-1 … and 14 of those runs were charged to Mazzaro's watch. Never mind that he wasn't even on the mound when the final three of the holocaust crossed the plate.

That may have been the only time in baseball history when a young pitcher sent to the minors after such a nuking as Mazzaro withstood thought his organization was doing him a huge favor. The only reason Mazzaro wasn't charged with the loss was because Kansas City starter Kyle Davies left the game with a sore shoulder after getting only one out, and his relief, Nate Adcock, lasted only an inning and two-thirds, before Yost went to the pen again and brought in Mazzaro.

Oh, Yost was beautiful after the game. "My thinking was," he explained, perhaps a little too patiently for a manager whose thinking got blown up in his face like a suicide bomber, "was I could get through two or three innings with Adcock, bring Mazzaro in there and, hopefully, get five innings out of him and keep us in the ballgame. Then go to the back-inning guys. But it didn't work out that way."

Was he serious? The Indians were probably hoping they could get five innings out of poor Mazzaro, too. Would you like to remember it in thumbnail, or do you prefer all the gory details?

* Mazzaro was brought in with the Indians leading, 3-0, after Adcock opened the top of the third by walking Carlos Santana. (Absolutely no known relation to the guitar legend.)

* The third inning actually went reasonably enough for the kid. Travis Hafner flied out to left; Santana stole second while Mazzaro was swishing Orlando Cabrera. He wild-pitched Santana to third with Travis Buck hitting, but he got Buck to ground out to first base unassisted for the side.

* Come the top of the fourth, Matt LaPorta opened against Mazzaro with a line single to right, but Jack Hannahan forced LaPorta at second. Mazzaro walked Michael Brantley on four pitches before Astrubal Cabrera dumped a quail deep in the hole between shortstop and third base to send home Hannahan.

* Still, Mazzaro was in reasonable shape after he got Shin-Soo Choo to fly out to the rear end of center field, deep enough to let Brantley tag and take third. Two out, man on third, Santana at the plate. Cabrera stole second as Santana worked out another walk. Bases loaded, two out.

* All Mazzaro needed was a ground ball to end the inning. All he got from Hafner this time was a three-run double to the back of center field, and the massacre was on in earnest. From there, it went like this: RBI single (Orlando Cabrera); infield single (Buck, moving Cabrera to second); two-run double (LaPorta); single through the hole at second (Hannahan, for first and third); three-run homer (Brantley); and, at long enough last, a swishout on the guy (Asdrubal Cabrera) whose rib single started the inning's ten-run beatdown in the first place.

Yost may have been that desperate to get a bullpen spell out of Mazzaro, but a ten-run single-inning holocaust might cause most managers to get the kid out of there, pat him on the fanny, thank him for taking one for the team against an Indians lineup that was using his man for batting practice, and send him to a merciful shower and maybe a night and following day off to lick his wounds and rejuvenate.

Not this time. With Choo, Santana, and Hafner due up for the Cleveland fifth, Yost sent Mazzaro out again. If the Indians were licking their chops at the sight of Mazzaro coming back for more use, misuse, and abuse, you couldn't blame them. Never mind that Choo flied out on 2-1 to open:

* Santana sent one grounding through the infield for a double to right.

* Hafner drew a four-pitch walk.

* Orlando Cabrera singled deep to third to load the pads.

* Buck singled Cabrera home with a sharp liner to left center field.

Finally Yost exercised his mercy clause and removed Mazzaro from the game before the Indians could draw any more of what remained of his blood. Yost brought in Jeremy Jeffress. And the Indians finished what they'd started in the inning: a two-run double (LaPorta) and an RBI groundout (Hannahan), all of which runs were charged to Mazzaro, before Jeffress finally ended the carnage courtesy of Brantley skying to short center field.

Jeffress would surrender a two-run double to pinch-hitter Shelley Duncan an inning later, the last of the Cleveland scoring on the day. The Royals more or less snuck home their only run of the game in their half of the fourth, when Alex Gordon scored as Billy Butler was grounding out to second. They should have been arrested for criminal neglect for what they allowed to happen to Mazzaro.

Mazzaro may have had few comforts when he was sent down to regroup in Triple-A, where you hope someone told him there are ways to shake off being the first pitcher since 1900 to allow fourteen earned runs (with or without a little help from his relief) in less than three innings. But these are some of them:

* Nineteen pitchers since 1919 have allowed fourteen or more earned runs in an outing, and three of them (Bob Feller, Bob Lemon, Ted Lyon) happen to be Hall of Famers.

* It was 13 years since the last time it happened, to an Oakland Athletics starter named Mike Oquist, who took his abuse from the 1998 New York Yankees, en route their staggering 114 wins.

* Relief pitchers aren't normally accustomed to giving up fourteen runs in any outing, and the last reliever to do it before poor Mazzaro was Tommy Warren, a wartime Brooklyn Dodger who surrendered 15 (eleven earned) in 1944.

* Mazzaro's not even close to being the first Royals reliever to surrender 10 in a single inning. Jimmy Gobble accomplished that anti-feat in 2008.

* Mazzaro actually got rid of four of his first six hitters. The problem was when he only got rid of three of his next 16.

* He actually kept the Indians' number three and cleanup hitters — Choo and Santana — from driving in any of the runs he surrendered.

It helps to remind you that baseball players are only human and not supermen, no matter what they do or don't accomplish on the field, when you remember hours such as Vin Mazzaro's. Remember those hours, too, when your favorite team's postseason dreams get blown up out of nowhere when fallible young men prove only too fallible in the heat of the season's most definitive competition. Remember that it wasn't exactly their idea to wear goat horns instead of caps or batting helmets.

Exactly why Ned Yost elected to leave this kid in to take the beating of his and a few other lives remains a mystery. I don't recall that the Kansas City bullpen was so decimated that Yost couldn't have gotten Mazzaro the hell out of there on a night when what stuff he had wasn't much stuff. Taking one for the team isn't supposed to be synonymous with a public massacre.

Not even Fredi Gonzalez in Atlanta (who burned his bullpen a little too much in the season's first half, a mistake he couldn't afford to make with the Braves' bats so fragile and the pitching staff shouldering too much of the load) or Terry Francona in Boston (who may or may not have dozed at the tiller while too many of his players became ill-conditioned, ill-timed, or ill-suited to the bristling of a pennant race) made a move that egregious.

Wherever he is today, if this is any comfort to Mazzaro he can take solace in surrendering a mere eleven hits while the Indians were spilling his blood, and it won't necessarily harm any Hall of Fame chances he might yet have. An Indians pitcher four years younger at the time once surrendered fifteen runs on fifteen hits, and two of the offending hitters were named Lou Gehrig and Joe DiMaggio. That pitcher would lead the American League in wins over the next three years.

If there is justice for Mazzaro, he will have been told, long before I sat down to write, that he, too, can recover from his very slightly lesser shellacking at the hands of somewhat lesser hitters, if a terrorist attack led by the Iron Horse and the Yankee Clipper could be shaken off by Bob Feller.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:29 AM | Comments (0)

September 29, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 4

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Detroit @ Dallas (-3)

After a hard-fought 18-16 win over bitter rival Washington on Monday night, the Cowboys are 2-1 and share the NFC East lead. However, major injuries, and an offensive line that endangers Tony Romo's life with regularity, portends the usual late-season slide in Dallas. The Cowboys host the Lions, who are 3-0 for the first time since 1980. Vegas oddsmakers have listed the Cowboys as 3-point favorites.

"What's the over/under?" Jerry Jones asked. "'Achieve?' Anyway, let's not prematurely judge our offensive line. Most say their made of mesh; I say they've yet to mesh. The Lions are coming here with a load of confidence, but so did DeAngelo Hall last week. Hall said he was going after injured Cowboys. I think center Phil Costa did it for him, nailing Romo with a handful of bad snaps. Anyway, Hall had his chance to target injured Cowboys. When we meet in Washington, we'll 'injure targeted Redskins,' assuming Hall is still there."

The Lions have arguably the most feared offensive player in the league, Calvin Johnson, and the most feared defensive player, Ndamukong Suh.

"Rob Ryan will drive himself crazy devising a defense to stop Calvin," Jim Schwartz said. "Luckily, he's got plenty of hair to pull out in doing so. Suh has too much class to boast of his intentions to injure opposing players. But not too much to boast of his intentions to re-injure opposing players."

The Cowboys can't stop Johnson or Suh. Matthew Stafford throws for 279 yards and 3 scores, and Suh forces a fumble and sacks Romo once.

Detroit wins, 30-20.

Tennessee @ Cleveland (-1)

The Titans and Browns are tied for the lead in their respective divisions, each with 2-1 records. Tennessee has been living through the air with free-agent gem Matt Hasselbeck, but the Titans passing attack suffered a blow last week, losing Kenny Britt for the season due to a torn ACL.

"Chris Johnson is averaging just over two yards per carry," Matt Hasselbeck said. "And that's after signing a huge contract extension with $30 million guaranteed. $30 million says he needs to earn his 'keep.' He's yet to break 100 yards rushing for a game, or the season. His pay may be measured with commas, but his contributions are measured with decimals.

"But I see 195 yards and 2 touchdowns ahead for Chris. Hopefully, he'll put up those numbers on Sunday, and not in the next three games."

Colt McCoy led the Browns on the game-winning touchdown drive last week, as his 14-yard touchdown strike to Mohamed Massaquoi gave Cleveland a 17-16 won over Miami.

"Eli Manning may think he's in a class with Tom Brady," McCoy said. "I like to consider myself in the same class with Peyton Manning — we're both the only Colt on our respective teams worth a damn."

Tennessee wins, 20-17.

Buffalo @ Cincinnati (+3)

The Bills erased a 21-0 deficit last week in a 34-31 win over the Patriots, as the Bills intercepted Tom Brady 4 times and racked up 448 yards on offense. Buffalo will put their undefeated record on the line in Cincinnati against the 1-2 Bengals.

"This has to be one of the biggest Bills victories over an AFC opponent in history," Ryan Fitzpatrick. "Of course, the Bills have never had trouble with the AFC; it's the NFC that's a bitch."

The big news in Cincinnati is not football, nor Carson Palmer's whereabouts, nor Pete Rose's ever-devaluing autograph, but the eight pounds of marijuana found in wide receiver Jerome Simpson's home two weeks ago.

"A Bengal accused of a serious crime?" Marvin Lewis said. "Normally, here in Cincinnati, we reply to that by saying 'No big deal.' We can't in this situation. That's a pretty sizeable shipment. Jerome should know never to accept a package with the return address titled 'Nate Newton.' The real question is this. How did the feds know a shipment of marijuana was headed for Simpson's home? Obviously, they did a much better job of 'scouting' Jerome than we did."

Cincy jumps out to a 10-0 lead, but the Bills storm back and take a commanding 26-17 win. Fitzpatrick overcomes an early interception to throw for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Minnesota @ Kansas City (+1)

It's a battle of winless teams as the Vikings head to Arrowhead Stadium to challenge the Chiefs, who were game in a 20-17 loss in San Diego after two blowout losses to open the season.

"We nearly stunned the Chargers," Todd Haley said, "when nearly everyone expected a blowout. It was a 'David vs. Goliath' contest; Sunday's game against the Vikes will be a 'David vs. David' moment. And if we don't win, it will be my ass in a sling. I'm not sure who's more worried about that — me, or Andrew Luck."

The Vikings blew a 20-0 lead to the Lions before falling 26-23 in overtime. It's the third time this season the Vikes have raced out to leads before being felled by second-half collapses.

"No one is more frustrated than I," Adrian Peterson said. "We're like a wallet — we fold in the middle. We build leads with the run, then lose it by not running. I had only 5 carries in the second half last week against the Lions. Even my dad knows that's not right. If this losing streak continues, you might see me leave for new city, even before the team does."

Peterson gets his wish, and his number is called 28 times for 164 yards and 2 scores. Ironically, the Vikings salt the win away with three Donovan McNabb rushes, who takes a knee three times as the clock runs out.

Minnesota wins, 23-21.

San Francisco @ Philadelphia (-7)

Michael Vick suffered a severely bruised right hand in the Philadelphia's 29-16 loss last week to the Giants. Philly is now 1-2 in the NFC East, and Vick is listed as day-to-day.

"It's bruised and not broken," Andy Reid said. "Vick's right hand, and our collective egos. Michael's right hand is pretty painful now. He can't use it to pick up anything. Vince Young has a hand injury as well — he can't grasp the offense. Michael can't point with his right hand, either. That's a good thing, because the last two things he pointed a finger at, a scoreboard and an official, came back to haunt him."

The 49ers lead the NFC West with a 2-1 record after a gutsy 13-8 road win in Cincinnati.

"We're preparing for Vick," Jim Harbaugh said. "I don't think Mike Kafka is quite ready for a start. Like Vick, no one is sure about his right hand."

Reid gives Vick a game plan he can "live" with, one that features lots of handoffs and screen passes to LeSean McCoy. The officials give the 49ers a message that cheap hits on Vick won't be tolerated, and hammer it home by penalizing Patrick Willis for roughing the passer during the coin toss when he sneezes in the direction of Vick.

McCoy racks up 185 yards from scrimmage, and the Eagles sack Alex Smith three times.

Philadelphia wins, 27-21.

Washington @ St. Louis (+1)

The Redskins suffered their first loss with an 18-16 defeat to the Cowboys on Monday night. It was a painful defeat, and one that sent DeAngelo Hall into a post-game tirade in which he criticized officials and his own defensive coordinator Jim Haslett.

"There's only thing more open than a receiver Hall is covering," Haslett said, "and that's his mouth. He's the only receiver that can get burned in press coverage, then get burned by press coverage."

The struggling Rams are 0-3 and have been outscored 96-36 so far this year. The Redskins are the Rams third NFC East opponent so far this year. It's been a brutal early-season schedule, and a win would allow the Rams to enter week 5 with a 1-3 record.

"It's no time to panic," Steve Spagnuolo said. "We've yet to play a single NFC West opponent. When we do, you'll see our win total rise, and our strength of schedule rating plummet. That's a sacrifice we're willing to make."

Washington wins, 19-17.

Carolina @ Chicago (-6)

Jay Cutler has been sacked 14 times this year, more than any other quarterback in the NFL. After taking 6 sacks and numerous hits in a Week 2 loss in New Orleans, Cutler said he didn't thing he could "last" an entire season.

"Who knows?" Cutler said. "Maybe our offensive line will magically improve. If that happens, you can call us the 'Ta Da Bears.' That's not likely. I'm aching, and unless there are some changes, I see myself being unable to take any more on January 22nd, 2012, right around halftime of the NFC championship game."

Carolina rookie quarterback Cam Newton will face a determined Bears defense anchored by former Panther Julius Peppers. Peppers has only 2 sacks this year, and will be looking for more against Newton.

"I don't go down as easily as Cutler," Newton said. "And I certainly won't back down from Peppers. My size and elusiveness will render him useless. Just call me the 'Julius Cease-r.'"

Chicago wins, 27-17.

New Orleans @ Jacksonville (+7)

The Saints won a shootout last week, dropping the Texans 40-33 in New Orleans to improve to 2-1 and maintain a share of the NFC South lead with Tampa Bay. After two wins on the Superdome's artificial turf, the Saints will try to keep their high-speed attack clicking on the natural grass of Jacksonville's Everbank Field.

"I love grass just as much as the next Cincinnati Bengal," Sean Payton said. "And I'm sure it was shipped to Jacksonville in six-pound increments. There's nothing suspicious about that. There is, however, something suspicious about our defense. We're giving up 29 points per game, which is third worst in the league. Luckily, there's a quick remedy for that — calling your defense 'opportunistic.'"

The Jags will start rookie Blaine Gabbert against the Saints, and he will likely see a number of different looks from New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams.

"Indeed," Jack Del Rio said. "I expect the Saints to negate our run game and force Gabbert to throw. I think we're likely to see the 'Triple D' defense, which stands for 'Discounted Dozen of Donuts,' because there's '11 in the box.'"

New Orleans wins, 29-17.

Pittsburgh @ Houston (-3)

The 2-1 Steelers, coming off a 23-20 win in Indianapolis last week, travel to Reliant Field to face the 2-1 Texans. Houston's defense faltered in a 40-33 loss last week in New Orleans, as Drew Brees torched them for 370 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"So the Steelers are making a stop in Houston?" Gary Kubiak said. "That may very well be the only 'stop' made in Houston. It's games like this in which you really find out what you're made of. We're made of lots of things, too much of that being Neil Rackers' right leg. Rackers kicked four field goals of 36 yards or less, meaning we have red zone deficiencies.

The Steelers overcame three Ben Roethlisberger turnovers to beat the Colts 23-20 in Indianapolis. Pittsburgh's defense held the Colts to 241 yards total offense, and Dick Labeau's unit appears to have steadied itself after Week 1's shaky start in Baltimore.

"Where my defense is concerned," Labeau said, "it doesn't take a locked bathroom for Roethlisberger to put us in a 'bad position.' We can usually get out of it without a fight, though."

The Steelers bring the pressure to Matt Schaub, forcing quick throws and general sense of confusion. On offense, Roethlisberger protects the ball, and Rashard Mendenhall rushes for a clock-controlling 136 yards on 24 carries.

Pittsburgh wins, 31-26.

Atlanta @ Seattle (+4)

What's wrong with the Falcons? Atlanta is 1-2 after a 16-13 loss in Tampa Bay, a loss in which the Bucs shut down the Falcon running game and cut loose on Matt Ryan, sacking him 4 times and forcing 2 fumbles and an interception.

"Ryan's personality may function properly in one dimension," Mike Smith said, "but not our offense. When Matt is forced to put it all on his shoulders, he slumps."

The Seahawks edged the Cardinals last week 13-10 to capture their first win of the season. An upset victory over the Falcons would even Seattle's record at 2-2.

"That's a winning percentage of .500," Pete Carroll said. "That would win you the NFC West, with change to spare."

It's evident that it's going to be a long year for the Seahawks, and some are already predicting Carroll's demise. Some even call him Pete "Gone by Christmas" Carroll. The Falcons don't help his cause. Atlanta comes out smoking on offense and defense, and before Carroll can blink, or beg for leniency, it's 20-0.

Falcons win, 30-10.

NY Giants @ Arizona (+3)

The Giants remained firmly, and honestly, on their feet in a commanding 29-16 win in Philadelphia. The win put the G-Men in a three-way tie for first in the NFC East.

"The Eagles thought they were 'Giant killers,'" Eli Manning said. "The rest of the league thought we were 'Giant keelers.' Only the Giants can 'take a dive' and still win. However, there's no truth to the rumor that we're looking to make a trade for Tampa Bay center Jeff Faine."

The Cardinals hope to end a two-game losing streak with a big home win against the Giants.

"We're ready for the Giants," Darnell Dockett said. "We've done our homework and watched a lot of film, mostly the 1993 crime-drama Falling Down. You know me well enough to know that if I see a New York player fake an injury, I'll take drastic measures — I'll Tweet about it."

The G-Men were psychologically ready to knock off the Eagles. That's no big surprise, because of team known for faking injuries should, of course, be able to "get up" for a game. But can the Giants avoid a letdown? The answer is "no."

Larry Fitzgerald is unstoppable, with 8 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown.

Arizona wins, 24-21.

Denver @ Green Bay (-13)

After another mediocre outing from Kyle Orton, John Fox is again faced with questions at quarterback, and the rantings of Denver fans who extol the virtues of his "Mile Highness," Tim Tebow.

"There's only one thing that would make me consider starting Tebow," Fox said. "And that's Kyle Orton. But do I have anything to gain by starting Tebow? Is there really a difference between shouting 'For heaven's sake!' or exclaiming 'What the hell?!' Unfortunately, I fear, it's a 'no win' situation."

After completely negating Chicago's rush attack in last week's 27-17 win in Chicago, the Packers may not have to work quite as hard to shut down Denver's 27th-ranked running attack.

"We won't discount Denver's running game," Clay Matthews said. "We'll just ignore it. Do we fear Orton at quarterback? No. Tebow behind center? He's also behind Brady Quinn. Tebow may be first in the hearts of Broncos fans, but he's third on the depth chart."

Matthews and company rough up Orton, and Aaron Rodgers gives Orton a lesson he'll never forget. That lesson is this: if you are a real NFL quarterback, no one should even know who your second-string, much less third-string, quarterback is.

Green Bay wins, 28-14.

Miami @ San Diego (-9)

The Dolphins are 0-3 and head coach Tony Sparano is feeling the heat. With the Chargers up next, followed by a road game at the Jets after a bye week, wins certainly won't come easy.

"Things may be bleak for me in Miami," Tony Sparano said, "but at least the weather is nice. I'm walking on sunshine, but standing on a mixture of thin ice and eggshells. Obviously, Reggie Bush hasn't brought the big-play capability we thought he would. Right now, trading Bush for a pizza doesn't seem like such a bad idea."

Once again, the Chargers dominated nearly every statistical category, but only managed to trim the winless Chiefs 20-17 in San Diego's home opener last week.

"We know how to play down to our competition," Norv Turner said. "On paper, we should be the NFL's best team. But that statement's not worth the paper it's written on."

Chargers win, 23-17.

New England @ Oakland (+4½)

Last week saw a shakeup in the AFC East, as the undefeated Patriots and Jets both lost, courtesy of the Bills and Raiders. Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions as the Pats lost a 21-0 lead and fell, 34-31.

"I believe even Tedi Bruschi would be in awe," Tom Brady said, "of how bad I was in the second half against the Bills. I have a soft spot for the Raiders, because without them, I would have never been forced into that infamous situation back in the winter of 2002 that forever changed the path of my career, as well as the landscape of NFL rules that unfairly favor quarterbacks. I also feel a deep spiritual connection with Sebastian Janikowski. How so, you ask? Well, we're both fond of telling fans to 'drink this.' There's one way we're different, though. My fans don't wake up with me."

The Raiders ran all over the Jets last week in a 34-24 win, rushing for 234 yards. They'll try to do the same against a Patriots defense that has shown vulnerability this season.

"I like our chances," Hue Jackson said, "barring snow and an obscure NFL rule that makes sense in theory but not in practice."

The Raiders hit the field at O.co Coliseum with their jerseys out in protest, in clear violation of the NFL's "tuck" rule. Brady takes the jab in stride, and Rob Gronkowski takes Brady's first touchdown pass in stride as well.

New England wins, 34-24.

NY Jets @ Baltimore (-3½)

The 2-1 Ravens host the 2-1 Jets in a battle that is certain to be the hard-hitting, physical affair one would expect from two teams that claim to be the NFL's hardest-hitting and physical team. Sandwiched between a loss in Tennessee were two blowout wins in which the Ravens outscored their opponents by a combined 72-14 score.

"Unlike a game involving another New York team that will remain nameless," Ray Lewis said, "there will be no need to fake injuries in this one."

The Jets were battered in last week's 34-24 loss in Oakland. Antonio Cromartie suffered a bruised kidney, and Mark Sanchez's nose was broken.

"How dare Joe Namath question my team's preparation," Rex Ryan said. "Namath should know a well-oiled machine when he sees one. I guarantee he'll regret making that statement. And one of these days, one of my guarantees will actually come true."

The Ravens stifle the banged-up Jets, and Ray Rice scores twice to lead the Ravens.

Baltimore wins, 22-16.

Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay (-10)

The Colts look to avoid becoming the first team this year to lose a game on two different days of the week as they travel to Tampa for Monday night's prime time contest against the Bucs. As has been proven often this year, Peyton Manning's importance to the team is inversely proportionate to the suckiness of his backup. Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter were both ineffective in a 23-20 loss to the Steelers last week.

"I'm over the feeling sorry for myself stage," Peyton Manning said. "Now, I just feel sorry for the Colts. Whether viewing from the sidelines or watching from a booth, I want to put my head down. Collins sustained a concussion last week, and most Colts fans hope he 'sustains' it for at least another week."

There's no Peyton Manning to lead the Colts back from a 21-0 fourth quarter deficit. Nor is there a Peyton Manning available to lead Indy back from a 21-0 first-quarter deficit. There's only Curtis Painter, who's starting because Collins "Paint'ed" the Colts into a corner.

Tampa Bay wins, 27-13.

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Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:22 PM | Comments (0)

Anatomy of Upsets

This past week was a banner week for upsets in college football. We saw not one, not two, but three 1-AA (my boycott of the term "FCS" continues apace) teams beat 1-A (ditto "FBS") sides. Each has an interesting story behind it.

Sam Houston State 48, New Mexico 45 (OT)

Sam Houston State, a member of the Southland Conference (a collection of schools in Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas), finished a pedestrian 6-5 last year, and would normally be content to defeat their in-state conference rivals Stephen F. Austin, Lamar, and Texas State (who will join the WAC next year).

But as New Mexico was already recognizably one of the worst teams in 1-A, SHSU knew they had a chance to win this game, and they took advantage of it, hastening the exit of New Mexico coach Mike Locksley.

Locksley, I have to assume, was secretly in some sort of reality show competition about who could put together the worst coaching resume of all-time. The day after the game, it was revealed that a New Mexico recruit blew a DUI traffic stop ... in a car registered to Locksley. Keeping that in mind, check out these gaudy qualifications (courtesy of The Upset Blog, a blog that, sadly, is not all about upsets):

* A secretary in the athletic department filed a sexual harassment suit against Locksley before the coach's first game at New Mexico.

* Locksley reportedly punched and/or choked assistant coach J.B. Gerald.

* A recruit was cited for DWI while driving a car registered to Locksley after measuring twice the legal limit for blood-alcohol levels.

* 2-26 overall record (2-15 in MWC, 0-11 non-conference).

* 0-2 against rival/lesser light New Mexico State, whom they will play this week.

* Lost to Sam Houston State at 2011 UNM homecoming.

That's right, it was homecoming, the game schools typically try to schedule a cream-puff for so they have the best chance of sending those crazy kids to the dance in the best possible spirits.

Looking over Locksley's, erm, credentials, would he even survive the first round of cuts when applying for your kid's middle school's assistant tight end's coach?

North Dakota State 37, Minnesota 24

I won't say whose column it was — the guy probably won't need the publicity because he's so brilliant and probably very handsome — but check out what this guy said in his last column two weeks ago:

"No team has had more of an embarrassing run against 1-AA opponents and lower-echelon 1-A opponents than Minnesota over the last few years. In 2006, they escaped the Metrodome with a 10-9 win over 1-AA North Dakota State when NDSU missed a field goad as time expired. A sampling of results since then:

(snipping a list of ignoble results, including three to 1-AA Dakota schools)

Perhaps from a competitive standpoint, Minnesota should consider leaving the Big 10 and join the about-to-be-homeless castoffs of the Big 12. Minnesota will try again to crack these pesky Dakota schools in two weeks when they host NDSU again."

... and SURE ENOUGH! The Bison out-gained Minnesota, committed fewer penalties, and played turnover-free football en route to victory, marked by a four-touchdown second quarter.

By the way, Minnesota coach Jerry Kill is in the hospital again after suffering still another seizure. I hate to say it, but he probably should not be coaching for health reasons and job performance. Granted, coaching Minnesota could instantly send the fittest, smartest, calmest man — I'm imagining some amalgamation of Vin Diesel and Chesley Sullenberger — to the Mayo Clinic with the worst case of PTSD, depression, and severe and poorly-understood heart and digestive ailments — but even for a first-year coach, you shouldn't be able to keep a Big Ten job if you lose to New Mexico State and North Dakota State in the same season.

Southern Utah 41, UNLV 16

I can't find reliable information to verify or refute this, but this may be the biggest blowout at 1-AA school has ever put down on a 1-A school ... and 6 of UNLV's points were courtesy of a garbage-time touchdown.

The prior week, many eyebrows — including my own — were raised when UNLV, a 17-point underdog, comfortably handled Hawaii, 40-20. Was UNLV a lot better than we thought, or Hawaii a lot worse? Well, I guess we have our answer, although I suspect both results were pretty fluky.

You know who is especially happy about SUU's victory? Tysson Poots. Oh you know Tysson Poots! You don't? Well, he was an all-American wide receiver for the Thunderbirds, and came to my attention during a preseason Cowboys game my girlfriend and I watched (he was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Cowboys, but sadly was cut).

Oh, what a kick we got out of that name. And although it's apparently pronounced like "Tyson," we insist on pronouncing it "Tisson," which makes his name very close to being Puss in Boots. I hope he catches on somewhere. Or makes it on "The Price is Right."

Speaking of upsets, and my girlfriend, props to her alma mater (she's a diehard Aggie Fan, and attended A&M, but ultimately graduated from) North Texas, which knocked off Indiana this week, 24-21. The game was not as close as the score indicates: UNT led 24-0 and then held off a furious Indiana run of three fourth quarter touchdowns to seal the victory.

Although I mainly focus of 1-AA over 1-A upsets, the three undisputed bottom-feeders of 1-A are the WAC, MAC, and Sun Belt, and now Big Ten schools have lost to the worst the WAC (New Mexico State over Minnesota) and the Sun Belt (UNT over Indiana) have to offer. Not counting their upsets wins, UNT and NMSU are 0-6. Merciful fate dictates that the Hoosiers and Gophers will not play this year, sparing us from a rematch of the 1987 Toilet Bowl.

As far as the MAC goes (the bottom feeder conference nearest to my heart), congratulations to Temple for absolutely thrashing Maryland, 38-7. Penn State fans were in a tizzy for their near-miss 14-10 win over the Owls, but I warned them that Temple's pretty damn good, and they've proven it.

My quibble with Temple — or the MAC, to be exact — is that they accepted Temple in the first place under the conditions that they did: Football only. Temple was kicked out of the Big East in 2004 for persistent suckitude (the only time I've heard tell of a conference doing that), and had no options. Temple would have raised the MAC's basketball profile considerably and the conference should have insisted on full conference membership or nothing.

Instead, Temple gets to keep their basketball team in the superior (to the MAC) Atlantic 10 conference, which does not sponsor football, in exchange for Temple agreeing to play a few MAC foes in non-conference basketball action each year. (This allowed me to watch my Zips get throttled by 35 in Philadelphia by the Owls last year. You may have had the better team, Temple, but THE HOT DOGS IN YOUR ARENA WERE UNMEMORABLE!)

The MAC gave the same sweetheart deal to UMass, who will join the MAC in football in the coming years while staying in the Atlantic 10 in basketball. Apparently, the MAC is so interested in getting into those sought after "new markets" (Philadelphia and Boston in this case) that they will let these schools into the conference under whatever circumstances they desire.

Which brings me to a preview of my next column: why the MAC should not have agreed to pay New York City's Tisch School of the Arts $100 million a year to field a football team in the MAC. Stay tuned!

Posted by Kevin Beane at 4:10 PM | Comments (1)

September 28, 2011

Lions, and Packers, and Bills, Oh My!

With three weeks of the NFL season in the books, it's time to open up the "who's who" discussion board and wean out the flukes and fakers to see which young storylines we might still be talking about in Week 17.

After three short weeks, there are only three undefeated teams left in the NFL: the Lions, Packers, and Bills. The defending champion Packers are by no means a surprise, but I consider them the most underrated team in the NFL. The Packers like being an underdog, but at some point, you have to give credit where credit is due. Since the Eagles' DeSean Jackson (with help from the head and legs of the Giants' Matt Dodge not communicating) kept the Packers' playoff hopes alive with his game-winning punt return against the G-Men in Week 15 of the 2010 season, the Packers have been on 9-game winning streak, including a Super Bowl XLV victory over the favored Pittsburgh Steelers.

Perhaps a reason for not being in most "powerhouse" conversations like the Patriots, Steelers, Jets, lackluster Eagles, and healthy Colts, is the fact that only two of these nine games have been decided by more than 10 points. I think this is a staggering statistic, considering half of these wins were in win-or-go-home situations. The Packers are winners and they find a way to get it done week in and week out, and that is why they are going to be talked about well after Week 17.

Meanwhile, after an extremely impressive victory this weekend over the omni-dominant New England Patriots, the Buffalo Bills need only a victory next week over the omni-mediocre Cincinnati Bengals to tie their victory total from last year. I really like this Bills team, but it pains me to say they look a lot like the Kansas City Chiefs of two years ago. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal, no doubt, and he improves every week.

Nonetheless though, he still has some mistakes to make and learn from until I see him leading a team deep into the playoffs. I hope I'm wrong, because the Bills are fun to watch and they have a lot of genuinely good guys on their squad (Fred Jackson's fan shout-out after the win was extremely classy), but I think due to a less-than-stellar defense (24th in passing and rushing defense), the Bills won't end the season with double-digits in the win column and if they do make the playoffs, they won't make it past the first round.

Last, but not least, the Detroit Lions. We hear the term "rebuilding year" way too often in sports as an excuse for being horrible. I think 2009 was just that for the Detroit Lions, though. As good as Matthew Stafford is becoming, I think the best offseason pickup for the '09 Lions was coach Jim Schwartz. I'd be lying if I said that I had all the confidence in the world in Schwartz after he took the Lions to a (sad but true) "much improved" 2-14 year, but when he didn't get fired, I started to believe what the Lions were saying about 2009 being a rebuilding year.

I started believing in the Lions last year when they all but defeated the Bears on a Calvin Johnson dropped (by rule) touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter. The next week, the Lions lost by only 3 to a playoff-bound Eagles team (granted, before the Eagles decided to play Michael "Not Even Fair How Good I Was Last Year" Vick) and then took the future champion Packers to the wire two weeks later in Green Bay, losing only by 2 points. As I mentioned before, the Packers had that "get it done" x-factor late in games last year and the Lions did not. This year, though, the Lions do have it and I wouldn't be surprised if they ended with 12 or 13 wins, including one against the division rival Packers.

This season is already shocking and exciting, and I don't see it slowing down any time soon. I would be very surprised to see any of these teams stay undefeated for much longer, though, especially due to the fact that the Packers and Lions play each other (at least) twice. I wouldn't, however, be anywhere near surprised to see an All-NFC North Championship Game, and I would go as far as saying it wouldn't surprise me to see it played in Detroit.

Posted by Gary Flick at 1:57 PM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 28

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Tony Stewart — Stewart zoomed past Clint Bowyer's sputtering No. 33 Chevrolet with two laps to go at New Hampshire, capturing his second-straight win and moving to the top of the Sprint Cup point standings. Stewart is two-for-two in the Chase and now leads Kevin Harvick by 7 points.

"I was past Bowyer in a flash," Stewart said. "I saw 'Cheerios' then said my 'bye bye's.' I left Bowyer faster than Richard Childress.

"As I cryptically stated before, we turned things around by unloading some 'dead weight.' A Stewart-Haas press release states that no further clarification of what or who 'dead weight' is or was is forthcoming. The 'weight' is over, and as soon as I have a bad finish and need a convenient scapegoat, the 'wait' will be over, and I'll name names."

2. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski charged late to finish second in the Sylvania 300, earning his fifth finish of third of better in the last eight races. He leaped three spots in the point standings to third, and now trails Tony Stewart by 11.

"I'm just curious," Keselowski said. "If I win a race in the Chase, do I get credit for it?

"Anyway, for anyone who's doubted my ability as a viable championship contender, this should prove once and for all that I can win it all. I'm no longer just a 'Cinderella' story, but I've 'made believers' out of many."

3. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led a race-high 78 laps, and looked to be on his way to the win before a problem on a gas can exchange on his final pit stop dropped him back in the field. He finished third and vaulted six spots in the point standings to fifth, 23 out of first.

"If it's not another team sabotaging a sure win," Gordon said, "it's my own. When you have a car as good as the No. 24 Chevy was on Sunday, you should 'get more out' of it than a third place. By that same token, my re-fuelers should 'get more in.'"

4. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished eighth at New Hampshire, posting his series-best 19th top-10 result of the year, and second of the Chase. He sits fourth in the point standings, 14 out of first.

"Tony Stewart and the No. 14 team are peaking at the right time," Edwards said, "which happens to be six months later than I did."

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished a disappointing12th in the Sylvania 300, as a stop for fuel left him mired in traffic and unable to make a run towards the front. He dropped out of the lead in the point standings, but trails new leader Tony Stewart by only seven points.

"I really could have used a teammate's spin," Harvick said, "but I think it would have been too much to ask Clint Bowyer to spin while he was leading the race. Clint, understandably, isn't willing to 'take one for the team' because Richard Childress is willing to 'take one from the team.'"

6. Kyle Busch — Busch finished a lackluster 11th at Loudon, as an ill-handling car left him frustrated. After entering the Chase For the Cup on top of the standings, he's fallen into a tie for sixth, 26 out of first.

"I'm running myself right out of championship contention," Busch said. "I 'took a bow' four times during the regular season. I think I've got one more in my. That would be my 'final bow,' because it's 'curtains' for my title hopes."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished a solid sixth at Loudon as all four Roush Fenway cars cracked the top 10. Kenseth jumped four spots in the standings and is now tied for sixth, 26 behind Tony Stewart.

"Roush Fenway has two cars in the Chase," Kenseth said, "and two cars out of the Chase. And four cars with no chance of winning the Sprint Cup."

8. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson was competitive early in the Sylvania 300, but faded late after contact with Kyle Busch. He finished 18th and tumbled two places to tenth in the point standings. It's the first time Johnson has ever been lower than ninth in the Chase standings.

"Most people are saying it's time to show 'what we're made of,'" Johnson said. "That's wrong. I know what we're made of — five Cups of championship."

9. Ryan Newman — Newman started from the pole and led the first 62 laps at Loudon, only to see a solid finish derailed by a loose right front wheel five laps from the end. He finished a lap down in 25th and dropped five places in the points to 11th.

"Me and Tony finished 1-2 here back in July," Newman said. "I guess I didn't hold up my end of the bargain this time. I felt like the 'third wheel' this time, thanks to my fourth wheel."

10. Kurt Busch — Busch's No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge failed pre-race inspection and was late to pit road before the start of the Sylvania 300. He finished 22nd and dropped five places to ninth in the point standings.

"You heard right," Busch said. "The 'F' word was uttered on live television — the 'fail' word. NASCAR said the car's rear-end housing didn't fit the templates. It was too high. I'll tell what's not too high — my opinion of this team."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:17 AM | Comments (0)

September 27, 2011

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* What on earth is happening to the Red Sox and Braves? Don't get me wrong, I like it. But it's weird.

* Colts HC Jim Caldwell has got to start taking some chances. Facing an obviously superior opponent, you can't settle for 21- and 25-yard field goals. If you're at the three-yard line, you need a touchdown. You aren't going to get that kind of field position too many times. A close loss is still a loss. C'mon, coach, roll the dice and see if you can pull off the upset.

* It probably wouldn't have affected the outcome, but officials appeared to rob Chicago's Johnny Knox of a really cool misdirection-aided punt return TD in the fourth quarter.

* Chad Henne has more rushing yards (111) than Chris Johnson (98). Among the 12 players with at least twice as many yards are Ben Tate, Daniel Thomas, and Cadillac Williams, who have a combined 2 starts among them. Johnson's longest carry this season is for 9 yards.

* I hate the way NFL pre-game shows distort the word upset. Look, if four of your five analysts pick a team to win, that's obviously not an upset. Come on, let's see these guys go out on a limb.

***

In 2008, when Tom Brady missed 15½ games, the Patriots went 11-5. Subtract Peyton Manning from the Colts, though, and the team falls apart. Manning is the most valuable player in the history of professional football. Last year, I wrote a column attempting to explain, or at least demonstrate, why quarterback is the most important position in football. I know that's obvious to most people, and it often gets blown out of proportion, to the point that people confuse team success with the individual QB, but others don't understand why running backs and linebackers so seldom win MVP, or why the first pick in the draft is usually a quarterback.

Last season, the Colts lost all-pro TE Dallas Clark just 1/3 of the way into the season. No big deal, Manning was still great, and the team went 11-5 and won the AFC South. Subtract the star QB, though, and everything goes to pieces. Some fans have gotten so used to criticizing the Colts for winning "only" one Super Bowl with Manning, they forget that he's kept the team in contention every year, sometimes without a lot of help. Dallas Clark, for what it's worth, has fallen apart without Manning. He's almost worthless as a blocker, and his fantasy value looks something close to nil without Manning. If you want to keep him on your fantasy team as a backup in case he comes around, hey, it's your team. But he shouldn't be a fantasy starter right now.

Without further ado, Week 3 power rankings. Brackets show previous rank.

1. Green Bay Packers [2] — Road win against their fiercest rival was never a blowout, but also not as close as it looked on the scoreboard. Green Bay out-gained Chicago by over 100 yards, made twice as many first downs, and won time of possession by 15 minutes. The offense looked good, of course, and old workhouse Ryan Grant clearly outplayed young buck James Starks, but the defense was particularly impressive (see Bears summary). The Packers, however, committed eight pre-snap penalties on Sunday, including five false starts. They also drew the Bears offsides four times. I guess that more or less evens out.

2. Baltimore Ravens [5] — Last week was just a hiccup, don't you think? A fluke loss by a team that was still focused on the Steelers even after it had beaten them? The Ravens have won their other two games by four touchdowns each, and they have the best point differential (+45) in the AFC. I agree with announcers Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots in that I don't understand why Joe Flacco was still in the game when the Ravens led 37-7. Flacco was sacked twice, and hit a couple other times, even with the Ravens up 30-7 in the fourth quarter. Rookie WR Torrey Smith (152 yards, 3 TDs) and Pro Bowl RB Ray Rice (162 total yards) had monster games against St. Louis. Rice, along with Darren McFadden and LeSean McCoy, is an early front-runner for all-pro running back.

3. New Orleans Saints [3] — The passing game is tremendous, and allows the Saints to be competitive against anyone. They've scored at least 30 every week so far. But remember the Colts from about 2002-04, when they had the Manning/Edgerrin James/Marvin Harrison triplets and almost nothing else? They'd go 12-4 every year and lose in the playoffs. This year's Saints will probably end up about 12-4, but they have got to start playing some defense. I know they've got some guys hurt, including Jonathan Vilma, but the Saints have allowed 88 points (29.3/gm), 30th in the NFL (the Rams and Chiefs are even worse, but they're a combined 0-6). The Saints' next three games are all on the road.

Former Saint Steve Gleason has been diagnosed with ALS, better known as Lou Gehrig's Disease. Athletes, particularly those subject to violent collisions and head trauma, seem particularly prone to this incredibly cruel disease. Gleason and his friends have created Team Gleason to raise awareness about the condition. You can also support the ALS Association through its website, ALSA.org.

4. Houston Texans [4] — 22, 27, 27, 36. Those are the distances, in yards, of Neil Rackers' field goals against New Orleans. That means the Texans kicked four field goals inside the red zone, including three inside the 10-yard line. Against a dynamic offense like the Saints, you can't settle for three points. Rackers has 7 field goals under 30 yards this season, almost twice as many as anyone else (4). Ben Tate has played well at running back, but I think this is where the team misses Arian Foster, who last year led the NFL in touchdowns (18). The Texans have a rough schedule the next month, starting with a pivotal pair of home games in Weeks 4 and 5, facing Pittsburgh and Oakland. Those games have playoff implications, and Houston has to win at least one, because the next two are on the road, at Baltimore and AFC South rival Tennessee.

5. New England Patriots [1] — Fantasy football scoring is stupid. I believe most fans know this, but touchdowns are overvalued and turnovers undervalued. This weekend, Tom Brady passed for 387 yards with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. That's not precisely a bad game, but it's certainly not a great one — except in fantasy, where Brady's afternoon netted 27 points in traditional scoring systems. Compare that to Joe Flacco (389 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT), who also earned about 27 points. You want to tell me those two had equally valuable performances in Week 3?

Brady threw as many interceptions against Buffalo as he did all of last season. He's currently on pace to pass for 7,000 yards. I say he gets 5,500, shattering Dan Marino's 27-year-old record (5,084). The Patriots lead the league in yards per game by over 100 (540.3).

6. Pittsburgh Steelers [6] — Overcame three Ben Roethlisberger turnovers and a miserable running game to edge the Colts in Indianapolis. Mike Wallace probably won't reach his stated goal of 2,000 receiving yards, but he's on pace (377) after three games. I have Wallace and Calvin Johnson in my fantasy keeper league, so I figure I'm set at wide receiver for the next decade or so. Troy Polamalu attracts the most attention on this great defense, and certainly he's an amazing player, but I was more impressed with James Harrison. Polamalu scored on a fumble recovery, and he runs around a lot, but Harrison led the team with 7 tackles (6 solo), including two for a loss and the Steelers' only sack, and he forced the fumble Polamalu scored on. Best linebacker in the NFL.

7. Detroit Lions [9] — Broke their 13-game losing streak in Minnesota, and improved to 3-0 for the first time since 1980. Head coach Jim Schwartz and GM Martin Mayhew deserve a lot of credit for turning things around after a decade of futility. The teams Detroit has played have a combined record of 2-7, but it's encouraging that the Lions have won a pair of close games, the sort they always seemed to lose in '08 and '09. Detroit leads the NFL in point differential (+55), though almost all of that was the 48-3 curb-stomping over Kansas City.

8. Buffalo Bills [16] — Broke their 15-game losing streak against the Pats with a dramatic last-second field goal. Top 3 in points, 2011 season to date: Bills (113), Patriots (104), Saints (104). I didn't mention Fred Jackson as an all-pro candidate at running back, but he's off to a tremendous start this season. Here's his average week so far: 101 rush yds, 6.4 avg, TD, 3 rec, 38 yds. I still don't understand why the team drafted C.J. Spiller last year, knowing it already had Jackson and Marshawn Lynch. Jackson is 30 now, so he probably doesn't have many years left as a good player, but he's always been impressive when he's gotten a chance to play. Here's something weird: the Bills are last in the NFL in sacks (2).

9. San Diego Chargers [11] — This is Norv Turner's fifth season as San Diego's head coach. In the first four years, he's won three division titles and never finished with a losing record. But only once in those previous four seasons (2009) did San Diego win two of its first three games. Sunday's win over Kansas City improved the Bolts to 2-1. The team suffered multiple defensive injuries in Week 3, including Antonio Garay, Quentin Jammer, and Jacques Cesaire. The seriousness of those injuries isn't clear yet.

10. Oakland Raiders [19] — Shane Lechler is having a typical Lechler season: he leads the NFL with a 56.2 punting average, but he ranks 26th in I-20:TB ratio (3-2) and almost all of his punts come back from that 56.2. Of Lechler's 15 punts, two were touchbacks (subtract 20 yards) and 11 were returned (for a league-high 224 yards, including a touchdown). Lechler has ranked among the "top" 10 in punt return yards allowed each of the past eight seasons; he has never ranked in the top 10 in fair catches. The guy just gets no hang time, and he consistently out-kicks his coverage, which facilitates those big returns. Lechler has the talent to be a great punter, but all he seems to care about is bombing the ball downfield.

The Raiders continue to be involved in an extraordinary number of penalties, another 14 this weekend (7 each). Oakland went 0/8 on third downs, but made the most of its scoring opportunities (2/2 in the red zone), got a 70-yard TD run from Darren McFadden, and added two more long field goals by Sebastian Janikowski. The Raiders have a really intriguing schedule the next two weeks, home against New England and at Houston.

11. New York Jets [8] — Antonio Cromartie had a really rough game against Oakland. He was called for four penalties, all of which resulted in first downs, including a 25-yard pass interference penalty. He also fumbled a kickoff, which set up a Raider TD, and finally left the game with a rib/lung injury before he could do any more damage. The Jets now have two tough road games in a row, traveling to Baltimore and New England. A 2-3 start against this schedule wouldn't be shocking, but it would certainly be disappointing for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

12. Chicago Bears [12] — They're 1-2, with consecutive losses ... to the Packers and Saints. No shame in that, and they dominated a pretty decent Falcons team in their other game. But this offense is horrifying. Opponents have out-gained the Bears by 2-to-1 on the ground, and against Green Bay, Chicago rushed for its lowest total in 55 years, just 13 yards. Despite the almost complete absence of a running game, RB Matt Forte accounts for 44% of the team's yardage. Forte has more receptions than any two of his teammates combined. He actually has more catches (22) than Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Roy Williams put together (20). Jay Cutler threw nine straight incompletions at one point this weekend; there's just no connection between the QB and his receivers. The defense is pretty good, but this isn't 1985, or even 2006, and it can't win games by itself.

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [14] — Hey now, 36-year-old Ronde Barber. In a huge home win over the Falcons, Old Man Barber came up big, with 4 solo tackles (including one in the backfield), 3 passes defensed (including an interception), and a fumble recovery. I know some people don't think of Barber as a Hall of Famer, because he doesn't have 50 or 60 interceptions. He's twice the player Champ Bailey has been, and it's unfortunate that Bailey is perceived as an all-time great (which he's not), while Barber — who really is an all-time great — doesn't get the recognition he deserves. He's not just a good player, he's the best cornerback since Rod Woodson.

Comparing Bailey to Barber, Champ has 7 more interceptions, but Barber has 7 more forced fumbles and 6 more fumble recoveries. Barber also has 400 more INT/fumble return yards and 7 more touchdowns. He has 200 more tackles, including 100 more solo tackles, and 23 more sacks (26-3). I don't have a stat to prove this, but Barber has also gotten burned deep a good bit less often than Bailey, who is a gambler.

14. Philadelphia Eagles [7] — Let's cut the foreplay and give Michael Vick a reality show. Madre de díos, how many freaking updates do we need on this guy's hand? And his delusional, woe-is-me whining about refs who won't coddle him? If you don't want to get hit, don't hold the ball so long, you pathetic prima donna. Philadelphia's tackling was atrocious on Sunday, led by safety Kurt Coleman. It's remarkable that Coleman is entering his second season in the NFL despite never having learned how to tackle. The Eagles won time of possession by almost 14 minutes this weekend, but they went 1/5 in the red zone (TD, INT, 3 FGs).

15. Dallas Cowboys [13] — With much of the team battling injuries, six Dan Bailey field goals carried them to a win over Washington on Monday night. Give some credit to Barry Cofield or Stephen Bowen or whoever it was that kept messing up center Phil Costa on the snap count. Other teams are going to try the same thing now that they've seen how vulnerable Costa is to it, so he'd better get things straightened out in a hurry. I bet it's actually not that long ago, but I couldn't tell you the last time a team was charged with six fumbles in a game and won.

16. New York Giants [18] — The NFL and its television partners have got to get it through their heads that this country does not revolve around the Northeast. I mean, there's a whole world outside of the Philly-to-Boston corridor. I don't live in Philadelphia or New York, but I've seen the Giants and Eagles every week this season, three games each. I haven't seen the Bills, Lions, or Texans at all.

Eli Manning tied a career high by throwing 4 touchdown passes against the Eagles. Active QBs with the most 4-TD games: Peyton Manning (22), Tom Brady (16), Drew Brees and Donovan McNabb (11 each), Eli (6). Was anyone else surprised, though, that Eli has never had a 5-TD game? That list is led by Peyton (6), Brady and Brees (4 each), then McNabb and Matt Hasselbeck (2 each). One 5-TD game apiece: Derek Anderson, Kerry Collins (in '04, with the Raiders), Josh Freeman, Big Ben, Tony Romo, and Matthew Stafford (as a rookie in '09).

17. Atlanta Falcons [10] — Biggest difference between the 13-3 2010 Falcons and the 1-2 2011 Falcons? Matt Ryan is taking a lot of sacks this season. Last year, Ryan was sacked 23 times in 16 games. This year, 13 times after just three games. That can't continue. It hurts already, setting up third-and-long or knocking you out of field goal range, but it's going to hurt even more when Ryan gets injured. The Falcons have too many weapons to allow defenses to dictate to them.

18. Washington Redskins [17] — I was not real impressed by Jon Gruden's scouting report. Pre-game, he compared Barry Cofield to Casey Hampton, and LaRon Landry to Troy Polamalu. Landry and Polamalu are both high-energy guys, and big hitters. But Polamalu is a future Hall of Famer, and Landry can just barely play safety in the NFL. He's more suited to playing linebacker than defensive back. Landry is far too aggressive, and his cover skills are atrocious. I don't think anyone else in the league gives up more big plays by running himself out of position. During the game, Gruden also noted, correctly, "That's a terrible throw by Rex Grossman." Well of course it was. That's what Grossman does. Horrific decision-making is pretty much his trademark.

19. Tennessee Titans [21] — How far can you really move them up the rankings after they lose their best receiver? Kenny Britt tore multiple ligaments in his knee and will miss the remainder of the season. Chris Johnson continues to struggle — he had exactly as many rushing yards this week as punter Brett Kern — but Matt Hasselbeck is partying like it's 2005. In his first year with the Titans, Hasselbeck is averaging 310 yards per game, with a 102.2 passer rating. WR Nate Washington is a must-add in most fantasy leagues at this point.

20. Cleveland Browns [25] — Outgained by almost 100 yards and lost time of possession by a full quarter (15:42), but turnovers, penalties, red zone play, and some luck kept them in the game for a 17-16 victory. Longtime special teams standout Josh Cribbs continues to see a larger role in the offense, including a 33-yard touchdown reception this weekend. The Browns' need more explosive plays from their offense, and Cribbs is an explosive player.

21. Miami Dolphins [15] — Following an exciting Week 1, Reggie Bush has turned back into Reggie Bush. Hey, remember when we were all comparing him to Gale Sayers? Daniel Thomas looks solid as the lead RB, though, and I still believe Bush could be effective as a WR/PR. Firing Tony Sparano will not solve this team's problems. The issue isn't a coach who's failed to get results from talented players, it's that there aren't very many talented players.

22. Minnesota Vikings [20] — In the first half, the Vikings have outscored their opponents 54-7. In the second half, they have been outscored 6-67. Jared Allen is the best defensive end in football, and Adrian Peterson is certainly on the short list of running backs, but other than those two and Antoine Winfield, most of this team looks lost. Maybe this wasn't all Chilly's fault. In Week 4, the Vikings travel to winless Kansas City. Someone's 0 must go. After that is a winnable home game against the Cardinals.

23. Denver Broncos [22] — Committed only one penalty to Tennessee's 11, but still lost by a field goal. This team has a ton of injuries, and the Week 6 bye can't come soon enough. Elvis Dumervil in particular is sorely missed. The team is also anxiously awaiting the returns of Terrell Davis, Shannon Sharpe, and John Elway. Last week, I praised punter Britton Colquitt. This week, he dropped four of his five punts inside the 20-yard line, with no touchbacks. Good show, kid.

24. San Francisco 49ers [28] — With wins over Seattle and Cincinnati, this looks like the weakest 2-1 team in the league. The defense played well this weekend, limiting the Bengals to a pair of field goals, but Frank Gore's poor performance and subsequent injury make you wonder how much longer he can play. I have nothing to say about Alex Smith that hasn't already been said, except this: David Garrard. If the 49ers win in Philadelphia next week, I swear I will say some nice things about them.

25. Indianapolis Colts [26] — I'd like to see Indianapolis stick with Curtis Painter at quarterback. Kerry Collins appeals to coaches because he avoids most of the big mistakes. But Collins just doesn't create anything positive for the team, and Painter brings an energy the 39-year-old Collins doesn't. Neither of them looked particularly good on Sunday night, but Painter led a touchdown drive, which Collins couldn't do in 3½ quarters. And realistically, how much worse can the team get if they give Painter a shot? They're 0-3 with Collins. From 2009-10, the Titans were 2-11 (.154) with Collins at QB, and 12-6 with Vince Young (.667). Collins is the safe choice, but there's no upside. Painter's going to make mistakes that Collins never would, but he brings some hope, at least.

26. Cincinnati Bengals [24] — Remember that Week 1 shootout between the Patriots and Dolphins? Their Week 3 contest against San Francisco was the opposite. The teams combined for 454 yards of offense and 6/25 third-down conversions. The Niners committed 12 penalties but won anyway. Andy Dalton played very poorly this weekend, but he's a rookie. These things happen.

27. St. Louis Rams [23] — Three losses, all by double digits. Yeah, they've faced a tough schedule, but they've been outscored by an average of 20 points. How long are the major media parrots going to keep making excuses for Sam Bradford? In 2011, Bradford ranks 29th in passer rating (73.3, between Tarvaris Jackson and Kerry Collins), and only three QBs have taken more sacks. In the first half against Baltimore, the Rams were outgained 406-81, with more incompletions (11) than net passing yards (3). Or if you prefer, as many combined sacks and interceptions (3) as net passing yards. I know the receivers are banged up, and I'm not saying Bradford can't be a good player in the future, but right now, he stinks.

28. Seattle Seahawks [32] — Sidney Rice impressed in his first game as a Seahawk, catching 8 passes for 109 yards. Other noteworthy performers were Chris Clemons (3 tackles for a loss), Kam Chancellor (interception and forced fumble), and special teamer Kenard Cox (3 tackles on special teams!). The NFC West looks just as bad as last season, so if Rice can open up the offense and some of the young defensive players step up, the Seahawks could return to the postseason.

29. Carolina Panthers [30] — In pouring rain, on a surface that looked less like turf and more like slip-and-slide, Cam Newton played his first really poor game statistically, and got his first NFL win. Actually, Newton did pass for more yards (158) than rival rookie Blaine Gabbert (139), and he did it without any sacks or interceptions. Newton also rushed for 27 yards, and actually leads the Panthers (98 this season). I think this ranking is a little too low; the Panthers don't seem that bad this year. Newton deserves a lot of the credit.

30. Arizona Cardinals [29] — What a game from Calais Campbell: 10 tackles (5 solo), 2.5 sacks, and a total of 4 hits on the quarterback. This loss fell on the offense, not the defense. It's remarkable the way their passing game has fallen apart without Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. I mean, Larry Fitzgerald's still around, and it's mostly the same coaching staff. I said this about 700 times last year, but I'd like to see LaRod Stephens-Howling get more touches on offense. He's only 5'7", but so is Maurice Jones-Drew, and LSH is a play-maker, which is more than you can say for most of his teammates.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [27] — Maurice Jones-Drew in 2011 = Corey Dillon with the Bengals. Great RB, terrible team.

32. Kansas City Chiefs [31] — Too many injuries to remain competitive. The Chiefs were always going to slide back to the pack a bit this season, but injuries to key players like Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry make this more than just "back to the pack a bit." Starting CB Brandon Flowers also left Sunday's game with an injury, though it might just be an ankle sprain. In the first half this weekend, Matt Cassel completed 6 of his 7 passes ... for 18 yards, an average of 2.6 per attempt. The Chiefs made zero first downs in the first half.

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Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:02 PM | Comments (0)

Fixing College Football: A Minor Stipulation

Okay. Everybody's exhaling now that another round of realigning college allegiances has quieted down. However, I don't believe this game of Three-Conference Monte has been solved yet. With Texas A&M's acceptance into the SEC complete, and the ACC bumping their posse up a couple of newbloods, it appears that the "Mega Conference" reality will come about from a slow drip instead of a cascading waterfall.

I mean, do you think the SEC is satisfied staying with 13 members for the next decade-plus? Will a conference be satisfied with a lineup of 14? And do the Big 10-ish and Pac-12 really want to be seen as the little brothers to 16-team leagues?

Over the next few years, I think that the buzzards picking over the exposed carcasses of the Big East and Big 12 will get their fill, even if they don't pick the bones clean. And eventually, the Super Conferences will boast a roster of 64 schools that could ultimately leave the NCAA high and dry.

This will have experts of college days of yore screaming "Bloody murder!" all across the country. Where's the tradition? Where's the integrity? How is this any different from being a minor-league system to the NFL?

Well ... come to think of it ... how isn't it?

You know, with 32 teams dotting the professional landscape, 64 does make a nice round number. Plus, if the NCAA ends up not controlling any new conglomerate of football magnates, those conferences might need some direction.

Enter Roger Goodell and the suits over in New York. If this "pie in the sky" possibility of the Super Conferences breaking loose occurs, then what better time than now to setup what the other pro sports have been doing for decades (in some cases) ... a minor leagues of football.

Now, before you rail against my preposterous theory, hear me out a second. My version of an NFML (National Football Minor League) sets up two tiers of teams. Think of it as a Single-A/Double-A, A-Tier/B-Tier, or whatever. Thirty-two teams make up the first tier just below the NFL level. The second tier encompasses the other set of 32.

Each tier is divided up into regions and plays against one another. So, if Alabama and Oklahoma were in the same tier, they would be taking on one another. Tier one teams can play two tier two teams per year, and vice-versa. Each tier division plays just like today's conferences, with the winners of those four divisions going into a playoff to decide that tier's champion.

Confused yet? Oh, it gets better. So, how would you decide which team gets what University host?

Each NFL franchise gets to go into negotiations with whichever school they see as their top "farm system" locale. You would figure that most of the big boys would be hot commodities (Alabama, Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, Florida, Ohio State). However, it might be advantageous for some teams to snap up a school with more local ties. After the Tier 1 schools are established, then you would do the same system to set up Tier 2.

The agreed money from the Pro team will basically act as a rental fee to use the school's stadium and facilities for their future prospects. The NFL team, in return, would receive a portion of the ticket sales from the university as a partial return on investment. The length of each contract would be a static timeframe set up through the league (probably five or seven years). This way, if any schools on the lower tier have proved they are ready for Tier 1 status, they can move up in class. Likewise, any upper tier program not cutting its weight can be left for demotion.

This will wreak havoc on current TV rights for college football, but could create a new boom for professional TV money, which would be infused back to the organizations and their new farm teams.

On to the players, who might see the most risk and reward out of this whole deal. Instead of holding the NFL draft for all players that are three years removed from their secondary education, it opens up to all eligible high school graduates. The draft itself is expanded to 53 rounds (yes, it's extremely watered down, but that's a number of NFL roster slots per team). Anyone who gets drafted will have to play at that franchise's schools.

The players evaluated at a Tier 2 level can make up to $100K per year. Tier 1 players can top out at $250K per season. Drafted players have four years of eligibility to reach the Pro level, otherwise they'll be left to fend on their own for free agent spots. These players must also follow NFL personnel conduct procedures and attend classes as long as they are at their assigned university.

And where do the college coaches stand in all of this? The basically become de facto personnel staff to their pro counterparts. They help decide draft strategies before actually working with the kids once they get on campus. To fill out squads, the coaches can also recruit some of their own talent. Like rookie free agents, undrafted can choose any college they wish to go to and will still get the chance for a full scholarship.

Your mind numb from all these possibilities? Perfect ... because it might just take a complex solution to settle this complicated situation that college football has gotten itself into. There's no easy way for purists to stomach the change that's happening from coast to coast, but the change is there. And what to say more change what happen even if we get these mega conferences in line?

Baseball has its set "A"-laden leagues. Basketball uses a "D" in its semi-pro effort. Hockey can start its process from the juniors on. Maybe its time for the huddle to expand, creating its own path to stardom.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 12:58 PM | Comments (0)

September 26, 2011

Kings of the Hill

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees have been the unquestioned leaders of their respective leagues some time now. So, to the surprise of no one, they both find themselves with assured home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But while their paths to pennants may seem relatively easy, both have some great obstacles to overcome.

Philadelphia Phillies

1) Getting Back Into a Winning Mindset

Since they clinched their spot in the playoffs about a week and a half ago, the Phillies have won only one game. While some of this may be attributed to not pushing their starters as hard as before in hopes of keeping them healthy for the postseason, there is a problem here. Many times, teams that coast by for weeks at a time, even if they are the most talented team in the league, have trouble simply flipping a switch and turning it on at the right time.

2) Scoring Runs

This may seem too simple, but consider this: if the Cardinals win the wild card (and they have a great chance of doing so as I write this article) the Phillies will have the fewest runs scored of not only any National League team, but of any team in either league. As good as their pitching is, they'll have to score more runs to beat the best of the best consistently.

3) A Potential Matchup Problem

For this point, I'll go back to those pesky Cardinals — if they win the wild card, Philadelphia should be a little worried. I say this for two reasons, the first of which is fairly obvious in that to beat the best National League pitching, you need the best National League hitting, which the Cardinals have. But possibly even more worrying for the Phillies is that in 9 games against the Cardinals this year, they're only 3-6.

New York Yankees

1) Consistency From the Starting Pitchers

At first glance, the Yankees' rotation may not look too bad, but they have one glaring problem — they can't consistently get quality starts from all of their starting pitchers. This problem was easy to cover up in the regular season, when they weren't facing the best hitters and pitchers in the league every game. But when October rolls around, they'll need their top three hurlers to be sharp every start, or they'll have to rely on their great offense to do more than even it is capable of doing.

2) Familiarity Breeds Contempt … and Upsets

At this point, it's almost assured that the American League wild card team will come from the AL East. Both the Rays and the Red Sox have seen a good deal of the Yankees this year, and knowing the habits of New York's starting pitchers could spell doom for the AL East champs in a potential matchup. If the Yankees play the Red Sox at some point in the postseason, they'll not only have to deal with only Boston's top three hurlers, but also the only offense in all of Major League Baseball that has scored more runs than they have this year.

3) Playing their Best Baseball Now

This may seem like nitpicking, but the Yankees have had a losing streak of at least three games in every month except for July. While a similar statement may be true for most teams in the league, the alarming thing about those streaks for the Yankees is that they came largely against (not necessarily in sweeps) teams like the Orioles, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Royals. Given that all of those teams may finish .500 or below, there's definitely something to be said about a need for improvement here.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 1:25 PM | Comments (0)

September 22, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 3

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Jacksonville @ Carolina (-3)

Cam Newton topped 400 yards in passing for the second straight week, throwing for 432 yards in a 30-23 loss to the visiting Packers last week. Carolina is second in the NFL in passing offense, but their rushing attack, normally a strength, is ranked 29th, averaging only 72 yards per game.

"When developing a rookie quarterback," head coach Ron Rivera said, "it's imperative that you 'don't rush it.' Or so it seems."

The Jaguars were pounded 32-3 by the Jets last week, as quarterback Luke McCown threw 4 interceptions to go along with his 6 completions. That left him with a quarterback rating of 1.8, and left Jack Del Rio seriously considering a quarterback change.

"That's just awful," Del Rio said. "It's pretty bad when you can count your quarterback rating on one hand, but when Ronnie Lott can count it on two fingers, you know you've nearly hit rock bottom. Do you know what I can do with only one finger? Dial David Garrard's phone number. Anyway, in Garrard's absence, and McCown presence, Blaine Gabbert will get the start."

What's it called when four Panthers captains and four Jaguars captains meet a midfield for the opening coin toss? "Octopussy." Maurice Jones-Drew calls the toss, then Panther captain Steve Smith inexplicably slugs special guest coin tosser Victor Ortiz with a surprising left-right combination.

The Jags introduce a specially-designed defense geared to stop Newton — it's called "pass coverage." Jones-Drew controls the clock with 29 rushes for 143 yards, but the Panthers rededicate to the ground game, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart combine for 165 yards on the ground.

Panthers win a dogfight, 24-22.

San Francisco @ Cincinnati (-1)

While it may not match the implications of Super Bowl XXII, Sunday's 49ers/Bengals contest does have importance — both the 49ers and Bengals are tied for first in their respective divisions. The winner will stay there. The Bengals got a solid effort from Andy Dalton, the heir apparent to Carson Palmer, in a losing effort in Denver last week.

"Dalton showed promise," said Marvin Lewis. "Let's hope he can be like Carson Palmer and 'keep' his promise. Andy's a newcomer, and not a household name to fans, nor to teammates. On occasion, we've even had to modify our 'Who dey?' chant to 'Who he?'"

The 49ers are playing with inspiration under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, and could easily be undefeated if not for an overtime loss last week to the Cowboys.

"We punctured Tony Romo's lung," Harbaugh said, "which took the air out of the Cowboys at the time. 'The Catch' was the name given to another famous play in the Dallas/San Fran series. We're calling this one the 'Dallas Cow-poke.'

"A punctured lung is a fate that could very well await Cedric Benson. Not by our hands, but if he gets shanked during his next visit to prison. We plan to stack the box against Benson. Unlike the Bengals, we have a 'take no prisoners' approach to player signings, as well as defense."

It's a special day in Cincinnati. The Bengals have dubbed Sunday "Carson Palmer Day" at Paul Brown Stadium, and fans are asked to fill the seats and emulate Palmer by "watching from home."

The 49ers stuff Benson's early rush attempts, and force Dalton into obvious passing downs. 'Frisco wins the turnover battle, and Alex Smith tosses 2 touchdown passes.

San Francisco wins, 22-17.

Detroit @ Minnesota (+4)

The Lions exploded for 48 points last week, dropping the Chiefs 48-3 to go 2-0, good for a share of the NFC North lead with Green Bay. They'll take on their first division opponent when they travel to Mall of America Field to challenged the 0-2 Vikings.

"It's not often we get to run up the score," Jim Schwartz said. "But we couldn't help ourselves, but the pathetic Chiefs couldn't help themselves either, so it was all in fairness.

"Forty-eight is a big number. The last time a number so big played such a prominent role in Detroit, it was Chris Chelios' age. Hopefully this year, a 'red wing' won't interfere with our season. And by 'red wing,' I mean Matthew Stafford's inflamed right arm."

One week after blowing a 10-point lead in a 24-17 loss to the Chargers, the Vikes let a 17-0 halftime lead slip away in a 24-20 loss to Tampa. While Donovan McNabb is certainly not to blame for that, his play has been subpar, and the Minnesota passing game has suffered.

"We should be 2-0," said Leslie Frazier. "Heck, we should be the 2009 NFC champions, but we're not. And that's something we just have to stomach. And we have to stomach McNabb as our quarterback until Christian Ponder is ready. It's too bad the NFL is cracking down on fake injuries — we could sure use one now."

McNabb starts, but is knocked out of the game after a hard hit from Ndamukong Suh, who then draws an unsportsmanlike penalty for "being Ndamukong Suh." Ponder enters, but is ineffective. Stafford throws for 287 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Detroit wins, 27-20.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia (-7)

After a 35-31 loss in Atlanta last Sunday, a concussed Michael Vick left town with his tail between his legs and his head not far behind. As an injured Vick left the field in the third quarter, he boastfully pointed to the scoreboard, which showed a 31-21 Eagles lead.

"I've always contended," Vick said, "that if I were a dog, I'd be a 'pointer.' I wish I were a 'retriever,' because I left my dignity in Atlanta, and I'd like it back. But a concussion in the Georgia Dome was the last thing I expected. I'm still shaking the Cobb (County) webs out as we speak."

The Giants got their first win of the year, whipping the Rams 28-16 in St. Louis on Monday night. On Sunday, they'd like to even their NFC East division record with a win over the Eagles.

"Vick got KO'd by his own player," Eli Manning said. "What is this? Carolina Panthers training camp? Anyway, Vick got his comeuppance in Atlanta. I guess that was his 'Scarlett O'Hara' moment, and fittingly, it was 'curtains' for Vick. To that, I can only say 'Omaha-ha-ha."

Philadelphia wins, 33-24.

Denver @ Tennessee (-4)

Kyle Orton solidified his starting job with a solid performance in a 24-22 win over the Bengals last week. Denver won despite missing five starters with injuries, including Brandon Lloyd, Champ Bailey, and Elvis Dumervil. The injury situation was such that third-string quarterback Tim Tebow lined up at receiver on several plays.

"I know Tebow would rather throw than catch," Kyle Orton said. "After all, it is better to give than receive.

"If Tebow is our savior, why am I the one being crucified? I haven't seen a sign from God, unless He communicates vicariously via Denver area billboards paid for by fanatic Tebow fans. Guess what. I don't believe in Tebow."

The Titans manhandled the Ravens 26-13 last week, despite little contribution from Chris Johnson, who managed only 53 yards rushing. Matt Hasselbeck picked up the slack, throwing for 358 yards and a touchdown.

"It's good to see someone can 'carry' this team," Hasselbeck said. "Until my back gives way, I'm their man. One would think a player fresh off signing a huge new contract could produce better numbers. Not so far. I'm not the most gifted athletically, but I've done more with less. Chris is doing less with more."

Johnson breaks out, and rushes for 164 yards with 2 touchdowns. The Titans harass Orton into 2 turnovers.

Tennessee wins, 26-17.

Miami @ Cleveland (-3)

The Dolphins are 0-2 after a 23-13 loss to Houston last week, and a loss in Cleveland puts them in an 0-3 hole. In the AFC East, that's a deep one to climb out of. Tony Sparano knows the 'Fins need to make a swift turnaround, particularly on defense. The Fins surrendered 345 total yards, including 138 on the ground, after giving up a whopping 622 total yards to the Patriots in Week 1.

"'Surrendered' is the operative word," Sparano said. "We've given up almost the length of 10 football fields on defense. That's just terrible, and indefensible."

The Browns won on the road in Indianapolis, beating the Peyton Manning-less Colts 27-19. Peyton Hillis, the "Other White Peyton," led the way with 94 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns.

"I'm immune to the injury suffered by Peyton Manning," Hillis said. "It's nearly impossible to hurt your neck when you don't have one."

Miami wins, 23-20.

Houston @ New Orleans (-3)

After two games, the Texans are 2-0 and are clearly the class of the AFC South. Houston will travel to New Orleans to face the high-powered Saints offense, which is averaging 32 points per game.

"We've easily vanquished one team formerly quarterback by a Manning," said Mario Williams. "What's another?

"This team is winning with defense. Believe it or not, we have the NFL's top-ranked defense, and that, ironically, is a Texas-sized truth. A lot of the credit for that goes to new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, who followed a bum, our last coordinator. Phillips has well over 30 years of defensive knowledge in that head — that's why it's so big."

Like the Texans, the Saints got defensive last week, sacking Jay Cutler six times on their way to a 30-13 win. They'll have to pressure Houston's Matt Schaub, who is much more effective when given time in the pocket.

"If you hit Cutler hard enough," Sean Payton said, "he'll leave of his own accord, or in an Accord, or some other Honda, or maybe a stretcher. He proved his toughness last week. We had him running for his life, but, unlike last year's NFC title game, he was 'riding his bicycle' on the field. We plan to test Schaub the same way. By game's end, we hope to be calling him 'Floor Matt."

New Orleans wins, 34-31.

New England @ Buffalo (+9)

The undefeated Patriots and Bills square off in Buffalo, where the Bills boast the NFL's highest-scoring offense, averaging almost 40 points per game. The Pats are not far behind, scoring at nearly a 37 points per game clip. Tom Brady has been nearly unstoppable, throwing for 940 yards, 7 touchdowns, and only 1 interception.

"What's Tedy Bruschi's problem?" Brady said. "Who says a current Patriot can't be in awe of me? I certainly am.

"As for you people who think an innocent comment, jokingly made, can encourage fans to get liquored up, I'm not sure my words carry such weight. If I say 'jump,' Patriot fans don't say 'how high?' If I say, 'Get rid of that loafing, backwoods, nappy-bearded wide receiver who thinks I need a haircut,' does the New England front office listen? No ... well, yes.

"Anyway, real Patriots fans don't need someone to tell them to drink, but out of the kindness of my heart, I do it anyway. Someone, whether it's Bruschi or the media, always has to take the offhand words of a Patriot and make a big deal of it. You want to give the 'drinking' controversy a clever name, like 'Spygate?' Then call it 'NE-briate Gate.'"

With an upset of the Patriots, and a Jets loss in Oakland, the Bills would be in first place in the AFC East, and the city of Buffalo could party like it was 1990, 1991, 1992, or 1993.

"For once," Ryan Fitzpatrick said, "the Bills are the hottest ticket in town, as opposed to the Goo Goo Dolls concert at the Lafayette Tap Room. Bills of past were known for their defense. But to hell with O.J. Simpson. The 2011 Bills are known for offense, an offense led by a Harvard graduate. As you may have heard, I aced the Wonderlic test. Few other NFL players can match that claim. One who can is Vince Young. He 'aced' it by scoring a one."

Should the Bills win, the AFC East would be shaken to its very foundation, so even the Dolphins will be able to feel it. But the Patriots offense is too much to overcome, especially for a defense that gave up seven points to the Chiefs.

Brady raises a "toast" to the Bills defensive backfield, and throws for 349 yards and 3 touchdowns.

New England wins, 34-24.

NY Jets @ Oakland (+3½)

The Jets pummeled the Jaguars 32-3 last week, limiting the Jags to 203 total yards and only 11 first downs. The Jets intercepted Luke McCown four times, including two by Antonio Cromartie. Head coach Rex Ryan knows the Jets must be on the game again to overcome the Raiders.

"You can't talk about the Jets and Raiders," Ryan said, "without mentioning the 'Heidi Game.' But let's not mention 'Heidi.' Talk of an underage female can only be a distraction to Mark Sanchez, mainly because likes to wear the same clothes she does. And Sebastian Janikowski is equally as notorious. He's not likely to appear in GQ magazine, but he's been the cover boy on GHBQ magazine a lot."

The Raiders collapsed defensively in the fourth quarter last week in Buffalo, giving up 21 points in the final period as a 21-3 halftime lead slipped away. Hue Jackson knows the Raiders will need to show a killer instinct in order to take down the Jets.

"We choked," Jackson said. "And we will choke, any 49ers fans who dare set foot in O.Co Coliseum. Why would a 49er fan set foot in O.Co Coliseum, you ask? I'll tell you why? To see a real team. Anyway, it's too bad we don't have a player who wears jersey No. 5. If we did, for home games, we could call him 'O.Co Cinco.'"

Oakland springs the upset with a 23-20 win.

Kansas City @ San Diego (-15)

The Chargers nearly matched the Patriots yard-for-yard in an offensive shootout in Foxboro, but4 turnovers spelled doom in a 35-21 loss. Philip Rivers and company looked to rebound against the struggling Chiefs, who are 0-2.

"We turned the ball over four times," Rivers said. "The Patriots had no turnovers. That was the difference in the game. Norv Turner will tell you that in a preseason meeting, he emphasized the importance of turnovers as the key to our season. Apparently, we didn't 'take away' anything from that meeting. Or from the Patriots, for that matter."

The Chiefs are 0-2 after a devastating 48-3 loss in Detroit, where Jamaal Charles was lost for the season with an ACL tear. After so much has gone wrong this season, Todd Haley knows an upset win in San Diego can reverse the fortunes of the struggling Chiefs.

"A 48-3 loss is not the end of the world," Haley said. "You have to find positives among the negatives. Here's one: our kickoff team may be the most well-rested special teams group in the league.

"But to look forward, we have to look back, to the words of Herman Edwards, who said, 'You play to win the game.' Remove the 'to win' part, and you've got a motivational slogan we can work with."

San Diego wins, 34-13.

Baltimore @ St. Louis (+3½)

After Week 1's dominating 35-7 win over the Steelers, the Ravens felt the wrath of the letdown, falling 26-13 to the Titans in Tennessee. But nothing cures a letdown like a visit to an NFC West city, and the 0-2 Rams are struggling.

"The Rams and the Seahawks were the West's best team last year," Joe Flacco said. "This year, they are both 0-2. It seems the balance of power is shifting in the West. It appears the division is all balance, and no power.

"I know I've been criticized for playing so well against the Steelers and so poorly against the Titans. The Titans dominated statistically, out-gaining us in yardage, as well as reality checks and wake-up calls."

Baltimore wins, 24-13.

Green Bay @ Chicago (+3)

After beating the Panthers 30-23 in Carolina last week, the Packers are 2-0, and, more importantly, 2-0 against teams whose quarterbacks throw for over 400 yards. Cam Newton scorched the Green Bay defense for 432 yards, 10 days after Drew Brees threw for 422.

"It certainly is a 'troubling pattern,'" Mike McCarthy said, "much like any pattern an opponent runs against us. But don't discount our rush defense. They're ranked sixth in the league against the run, and only give up 76 yards a game. Obviously, teams can't run against us. That is, until they make a catch. It's only 'bump and run' coverage if we bump them before they run."

The Bears look to avenge last year's NFC championship game loss to the Packers, a 21-14 defeat at Soldier Field. Jay Cutler took a pounding last week in New Orleans, and will likely face pressure from a Green Bay defense anxious to reassert itself.

"I've totally forgotten about last year's NFC title game," Cutler said. "That's why I can honestly say 'I can't wait to get back on' Soldier Field.'"

Packers win, 29-21.

Arizona @ Seattle (+3)

The 1-1 Cardinals visit Qwest Field to battle the 0-2 Seahawks, who have struggled offensively so far this year, averaging less than 9 points per game. Arizona lost a heartbreaker in Washington last week, but are tied for the NFC West lead.

"This game is obviously huge for us," Ken Whisenhunt said. "It's a division game, and should we win, we will at worst be tied for the division lead. That second win is critical, especially in the West, because two wins could very well mean you're halfway to the division title.

"Kevin Kolb is the right quarterback for this team. We don't have any regrets about making the trade to get Kolb, but I know a team that does."

Tarvaris Jackson was sacked five times for the Steelers, and so far, he doesn't appear to be the long-term answer at quarterback for the Seahawks.

"I've made mistakes in my career," Pete Carroll said. "Too many to count. That's why I let the NCAA do it for me. But mistakes have followed me to the NFL. It was a mistake letting Matt Hasselbeck walk, just as it was a mistake letting Tarvaris throw. But he's a young, impressionable kid enamored with the lifestyle of an NFL player, much like most of the players I recruited at Southern California."

The Seahawks plays with a newfound purpose, inspired by Qwest Field's "12th Man," and upset the Cardinals.

Seattle wins, 24-21.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (+1)

The Falcons won a dramatic 35-31 showdown over the visiting Eagles, sending Michael Vick and his teammates back where they came from. The glory from such an emotional win will be fleeting should the Falcons fall to NFC South division rival Tampa Bay.

"I have no plans to point at the scoreboard in Raymond James Stadium," Matt Ryan said. "First of all, it's not polite to point. Second of all, scoreboards have this habit of, how should I put it, changing."

The Bucs overcame a 17-0 deficit to the Vikings to salvage a 24-20 win in Minnesota. Bruising running back LeGarrette Blount scored the game-winner on a four-yard run with 31 seconds left, his second score of the day. The Buccaneers could get a leg up in the NFC South with a win over a division rival.

"We relish the chance to even up out home record," Josh Freeman said. "Road games are such a hassle. Everybody hates packing, except for Aqib Talib. Of course, 'packing' won't get you in trouble. 'Unpacking' will."

Freeman finds Mike Williams for a touchdown with under a minute to go, and the Bucs take an exciting 30-28 win.

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis (+11)

After an 0-2 start, it is clear that Kerry Collins is a lot like Peyton Manning's first neck surgery — neither is a good short-term solution. Collins was erratic in the Colts 27-19 loss to Cleveland last week, completing only half of his 38 pass attempts, and will likely face a stern test when the Steelers visit on Sunday night.

"I'd like to apologize," Collins said, "to NBC, for what surely can't be the game they expected when the NFL schedule was released. Peyton Manning's dilemma is eerily similar to one the NFL experienced last year, that being an overabundance of attention devoted to an aging quarterback's anatomy. I echo the sentiments of the entire Colts organization when I say I'm tired of hearing about 'Peyton's neck.' What we all want to hear about is 'Peyton's back.'"

The Steelers rebounded from their opening day 35-7 loss in Baltimore with a dominating 24-0 win over the overmatched Seahawks, limiting the Seahawks to eight first downs, 31 yards rushing, and nary a sniff of the end zone. Defensive coordinator Dick Labeau has his work cut out against the Colts.

"Indeed," said Labeau. "My work is "cut out," meaning I don't have to do any. Not with Collins behind center. I'm just as disappointed that Peyton Manning won't be playing as Manning himself is. If you've been under a rock for awhile, let me update you on Manning's status for this game by quoting Manning from our 21-18 divisional win in 2007 — 'He missed it!'

"I know Manning is anxious to get back on the field. He's tired of standing. He's even more tired of drinking Gatorade 'Before.'"

Pittsburgh wins, 30-12.

Washington @ Dallas (-5½)

The Cowboys beat the 49ers 27-24 in overtime last week after Tony Romo returned from a broken rib and collapsed lung to bravely lead Dallas into field goal position. Dan Bailey booted the game-winning 19-yard field goal, setting up a big game in Dallas as the undefeated Redskins approach.

"That was a gutsy victory," Jerry Jones said. "That was an 'Escape From San Francisco' Kurt Russell could be proud of. We all thought Romo was done after getting hurt. To say his return was a surprise would be an understatement, so I won't say it, since understatements are not in my vernacular. I'm not sure how Tony found the fortitude to gut it out. Maybe, just maybe, Deion Sanders stopped doubting him long enough to sprinkle him with some fairy dust, thereby empowering him with a resistance to pain and the NFL Sunday ticket."

The Redskins head to Dallas as the NFC East division leaders, overflowing with confidence and carrying a Texas-sized chip on their shoulders.

"If the season ended today," Rex Grossman said, "I'd be right about my prediction of a division title. Heck, I think Romo is lucky to have a hole in his lung. I'd give my right arm for a hole in my lung. Sure, with a hole in your lung, you can't breathe. But you can't suck, either."

Romo throws for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns, and DeMarcus Ware posts 2 sacks and an interception.

Dallas wins, 28-20.

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Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 4:38 PM | Comments (0)

September 21, 2011

Belichick's Football Life a Half-Told Story

Most call Bill Belichick a genius, the best football mind since Vince Lombardi. Others say his success owes entirely to Bill Parcells' mentoring or Tom Brady's right arm. New Englanders acclaim him as the rock upon which the Patriots built the NFL's winningest, most celebrated team of the first decade of the 21st Century. New Yorkers and the Arlen Specters of the world whose assessment of integrity is blurred by the many layers of envy in which they're wrapped call him a cheater, as if seven minutes of tape can denigrate a 37-year career any more than a hangnail can malform Gisele Bundchen's physique.

Like him or hate him, Bill Belichick could give a damn. He is the most polarizing coach in all of sports, and his electrolytes are the seemingly impenetrable veil with which he cloaks both his professional and personal life. So it came as a stunner to most of the football world when the NFL Network announced its two-part special, Bill Belichick: A Football Life, this summer. The first part aired last Thursday night; the second, this Thursday.

The premise is not new: mike up a coach and follow him everywhere for a while. Even in New England, it's not a first. The Boston Globe's Michael Holley had a backstage pass during 2002 and 2003 for his best-seller, Patriot Reign (Harper-Collins, 2004), but little else has come out of Foxborough since. Often, it's a chess match in the Patriots' media center, and information and its suppression are the queen pieces. Even as A Football Life was queued up for airing, Albert Breer was being verbally Heismanned by an elusive Belichick in the bowels of Gillette. So why did he even agree to do this segment in the first place?

It could be the product of a woman's influence. Girlfriend Linda Holliday is fond of the spotlight and would love to pull Belichick into it, not to mention leveraging her beau's project into more national exposure for herself in the process. Or it could be that Belichick has come to terms with his own mortality and now looks to preserve his legacy. Few others have as deep a reverence for their own roots and those of the game they love. This reverence came to life in a touching scene last Thursday when an emotional Belichick took a final walk through Giants Stadium and reminisced about the organization and coaching staff with whom he won his first two rings. Allowing NFL Network to follow him through the 2009 season is his way of giving back to the game, of keeping his story in the family.

If you don't follow the Patriots, 2009 provided compelling drama. It featured the controversial Richard Seymour trade, the infamous 4th-and-2 call in Indianapolis, Drew Brees' perfect game against Belichick's torched secondary, players coming late for practice, and — oh, yeah — Ray Rice scampering 83 yards down the left sideline on the first play from scrimmage in their only postseason game. I was in the crowd for that one, and on the cold winter nights that followed, whenever I closed my eyes Rice's legs were still taking long unabated strides deep into the Patriots' secondary. Even a pillow across my face couldn't make him stop.

The first installment began with Belichick on his boat just before the opening of training camp and ran through New England's bye week, but it didn't offer much insight into the Seymour trade. The draft pick the Patriots got in return ended up being 6'8”, 319-pound offensive lineman Nate Solder who has fared well enough so far, but in a season where Belichick has already cut four early-round draft picks in Ty Warren, Brandon Meriwether, James Sanders, and Darius Butler, few are ready to declare victory on this move and still want to know why it went down.

There's a growing belief in New England that the luster has faded. Whether it's all those high draft picks that bust and get cut, the perennially porous defenses dating back to the 2006 AFC Championship Game, a plethora of receivers that can't understand the playbook, or the one-and-done exoduses, Belichick's best appears to be well behind him, but many New Englanders tuned in hoping to hear NFL Network tell us it isn't so.

And they let us see what we want. In a pre-game meeting before Week 2, Belichick prepares his coaches for what the Jets will throw at them the next day, while some clever interlacing of footage from that game make the HC look prophetic. He hasn't lost his insight and meticulous game planning skills after all! Yet, why was he not able to stop a single thing he knew was coming?

Belichick's disgust for this 2009 roster and coaching staff was apparent throughout Thursday's debut. At one point, he confides in Brady that he can't get his team to do anything he wants. Patriots fans aren't getting answers as to why that should be, but they can take comfort in seeing their coach hasn't lost his objectivity. He saw the limit of his offensive weapons, just as fans pulled their hair out watching Brady repeatedly forcing the ball into Randy Moss Sunday after Sunday. As he said, they couldn't throw to anyone else and they couldn't run the ball. Of course, those were self-imposed limitations, as Belichick depleted his rosters of talent through years of poor drafts and free agent busts.

This Thursday will offer us one last chance for answers, with some of the most puzzling events of the 2009 season still ahead. After that, it will be a long time before we get this unprecedented access behind Belichick's closed doors. If his first 36-plus years are any indication we won't get our answers out of him, even with NFL Network's help. Sports' most polarizing coach figures to be even more so come Friday morning.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 4:31 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 27

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Tony Stewart — Stewart leaped to the forefront in the Chase For the Cup, leading the final 30 laps to win the Geico 400 at Chicagoland. He shot seven places in the point standings to second, and trails Kevin Harvick by seven.

"Just days ago," Stewart said, "I declared several drivers as favorites to win the Cup. My name wasn't on the list. Was I sandbagging? Unlike some drivers, I can only play dumb. But it's obvious I went from 'pretender' to contender in a hurry, even faster than Brad Keselowski earlier this year.

"But of all people, Harvick should appreciate the intricacies of getting every last drop out of an engine. His Craftsman Truck team made plenty of 'dry runs,' racing despite a lack of funding."

2. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished second to Tony Stewart at Chicago, running out of time as many others ran out of fuel. Harvick took sole possession of the points lead as Kyle Busch ran out of fuel with one lap to go. Harvick now leads Stewart by seven points and Carl Edwards by ten.

"I was running on fumes," Harvick said, "so a caution wouldn't even have helped me. So, it helps to have gas in your tank, or a teammate in your pocket. Luckily, we didn't need Paul Menard in order for the No. 29 Budweiser car to finish strong."

3. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson led 39 laps at Chicagoland, and was running third when his fuel tank ran dry entering the final lap. He still finished 10th, and fell three places in the point standings to eighth, 16 behind Kevin Harvick.

"Tony Stewart's not the only driver who 'tanked,'" Johnson said. "However, he wisely did his tanking before the race. I still contend that I'll 'coast' to my sixth Sprint Cup title; I just didn't think it would be this soon."

4. Carl Edwards — Edwards had a solid start to the Chase, finishing fourth in the Geico 400 after leading 39 laps. He improved two spots in the point standings, and now trails Kevin Harvick by ten points.

"What do you know?" Edwards said. "There's a caveman giving the 'Gentlemen, start your engines' command. And Matt Kenseth says I'm the only 'Neanderthal' in racing."

5. Kyle Busch — Busch's title hopes took a hit at Chicagoland Speedway, running out of fuel on the last lap to see a top-10 result turn into a 22nd. He tumbled eight places in the point standings to ninth, 19 out of first.

"Now I can say I've 'run out of gas early' in the Chase," Busch said, "literally and figuratively. If form holds, I'll next run out of steam, then patience."

6. Kurt Busch — Busch led the most laps in the Geico 400, 64, and came home sixth, despite being generally unhappy with his car for much of the day Monday. The No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge was good when it counted, and Busch is now fourth in the point standings, 11 out of first.

"I never stop complaining," Busch said. "Even after a top-10 finish in a fuel mileage race, I wasn't happy, and I let the No. 22 hear about it on the radio. They were shocked, that after 400 miles of radio belligerence, I still didn't run out of 'sass.'

"You may have seen me throw out the first pitch at the Chicago Cubs game on Monday. Silly me. I thought they asked me to throw out the first 'bitch.'"

7. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt posted his best finish since a second in Kansas in June with a third at Chicagoland, buoyed by the fuel mileage problems of several Chase contenders. Earnhardt moved up four spots to fifth in the points, and trails Kevin Harvick by 13.

"I'm impressed by my fuel conservation abilities," Earnhardt said. "And so are my fans. Junior Nation loves it when Junior rations."

8. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski's Chase debut was a success, as he piloted the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge to a fifth in the Geico 400, his sixth top-six finish in the last seven races. He is now tied for sixth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 14 out of first.

"I'll take a firth-place finish," Keselowski said. "Unlike the former driver of the Miller Lite car, I can't complain. I know when to shut up, and when to put up. Confidence is the name of the game in the Chase, and I feel I'm as talented as any one else. Maybe that's youth talking. That makes me too young to know 'better.'"

9. Ryan Newman — Like many, Newman ran out of gas on the final lap, but coasted to a still-solid eighth in the Geico 400 as Stewart/Haas teammate Tony Stewart took the victory. Newman is tied for sixth in the point standings, 14 out of first.

"Next up on the schedule is New Hampshire," Newman said. "As you know, me and Tony finished one-two at New Hampshire back in July. Hopefully, we can repeat that. Most drivers fear the Newman/Stewart one-two punch, especially Joey Logano and Kurt Busch."

10. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth had the best car for much of the day, but fuel worries forced him to back off the throttle near race's end. Nevertheless, he ran out of gas with a lap to go, and with a push from J.J. Yeley, was scored with an eighth-place finish until NASCAR ruled the push illegal. Kenseth was credited with a 21st-place finish, and dropped six places in the standings to 10th.

"I couldn't go 'all out,'" Kenseth said, "but, ironically, I ended up going 'all out' anyway."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:04 AM | Comments (0)

September 20, 2011

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* On Monday, New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera officially broke the record for career saves. What a meaningless record. We've known for years that Mo is the greatest closer in history, and saves have got to be the stupidest stat in the history of stats. I'm glad for Rivera that he has the numbers to back up his long-standing supremacy, but the record isn't significant.

* This is why you always use the first pick in your fantasy draft on Adrian Peterson. Arian Foster and Jamaal Charles are hurt, while Chris Johnson looks more like LenDale White.

* The Jets' throwback uniforms are the ugliest in the NFL. Put those hideous things away.

* We all have a tendency to overrate good offensive teams. Looking at my top two or three teams this week, I hope I'm not falling into that trap.

* Green Bay safety Nick Collins is headed for injured reserve following his neck injury in Week 2. The team has been pretty quiet about specifics, but the early indication is that although the injury could be career-threatening, Collins should be okay as far as serious life-altering medical issues are concerned.

***

On Sunday night, Cris Collinsworth referred to DeSean Jackson as "the all-pro." He's not really an all-pro, unless you count second-team kick returner in 2009, when he got 3½ votes (out of 50) and finished behind Josh Cribbs. Why not just call Jackson a Pro Bowler or all-star or something? This reminds me of the time Jon Gruden called Charger NT Jamal Williams "a six- or seven-time Pro Bowler". Williams made it to three Pro Bowls. There's nothing wrong with the truth, guys.

Four of my top seven this week are 1-1, but I think they're all teams we'd agree are very good. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — There are a lot of good quarterbacks in the NFL right now, but three in particular stand out: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers. They're all so good, no one can really be better, but if I really had to pick just one, it would be Brady. He's just not making mistakes, and he's turned a motley crew of receivers into a bunch of potential Pro Bowlers. The Dolphins used Wes Welker mostly on special teams. Deion Branch did nothing with the Seahawks. Aaron Hernandez was a fourth-round draft pick. Collectively, those three players are averaging 22 receptions per game, for 314 yards and 2 touchdowns — 7 rec, 105 yds, 1 TD per player. The Patriots have shown vulnerability in each of their first two contests, but not in the passing game.

2. Green Bay Packers [2] — Strengths and weaknesses similar to the Patriots, almost identical in fact. The passing game is exceptional, and the ground attack has shown flashes of promise. But Green Bay's defense has allowed over 400 passing yards in both games, actually ranks last in the league in pass defense. Four sacks and 3 interceptions makes up for that against an opponent like Carolina, but there's a lot of room for improvement.

3. New Orleans Saints [6] — Superb performance from Drew Brees, and the defense looked much better when it didn't have to contend with Rodgers; in fact, the defense was downright dominant against Chicago: 13 points, 246 yards, 2/13 third- and fourth-down conversion rate, and 6 sacks. I'd still like to see a more cohesive running game — New Orleans is one of only five teams without a rushing touchdown — but like Green Bay and New England, the Saints may be good enough to get away without one most of the time.

4. Houston Texans [5] — The defense, a liability basically throughout franchise history, leads the NFL in fewest yards allowed and points allowed. Former Bengal Johnathan Joseph knocked down three passes this week, and the Dolphins' Chad Henne — who lit up the Patriots in Week 1 — finished with 162 yards and a 56.2 passer rating. Texans RB Ben Tate on Sunday became the first player since Cadillac Williams in '05 to rush for over 100 yards in each of his first two NFL games. This creates some uncertainty when 2010 all-pro Arian Foster is totally healthy. Good problem for Houston, bad problem for Foster's fantasy owners.

5. Baltimore Ravens [3] — Ran just 52 offensive plays against Tennessee, for 229 yards. The Titans ran 71 plays for 432 yards. Baltimore shut down Chris Johnson (53 yards, 2.2 average), but got burned in the air, netting zero sacks and just one turnover. It's understandable for the team to have a letdown after its huge Week 1, but you can't take anyone lightly in the NFL, and you're not going to get seven takeaways every week. Did you notice the line for their game against Tennessee? Baltimore, which should have been an easy double-digit favorite, was only favored by six. Somehow, Vegas knew about the upset before it happened.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — First shutout win since 2008 (a 31-0 spanking of the Browns in Week 17). The Steelers embarrassed Seattle, outgaining the Seahawks 421-164 and holding them to 8 first downs. Most shutouts since the league expanded to 32 teams: Pats and Seahawks, 7 each; Buccaneers, 6; Steelers, 5.

7. Philadelphia Eagles [4] — Mike Kafka's line on Sunday night: 7 of 9 for 72 yards, with a 100.0 passer rating and one of the incompletions a drop. But the Eagles aren't the same team without Michael Vick, and depending on how severe his concussion was, they should probably rank lower than this. Several other key Eagles also got banged up against Atlanta, and if a couple of those turn out to be serious, the NFC East race could be a lot more interesting than most of us expect. That said, the Eagles looked like the better group, and if they can stay healthy and improve their red zone defense, they're easily one of the best teams in the league.

8. New York Jets [9] — Dominant win over Jacksonville makes up for the gift they got from Dallas. The offense continues to perform at a very low level, but you've got to love this defense. The Jets scored a safety the first time their defense took the field, and the only score they yielded was a field goal on a drive that went just 20 yards. All-pro center Nick Mangold will miss at least two games with a high ankle sprain.

9. Detroit Lions [12] — Not that this means much after two games, but Matthew Stafford is fourth in the NFL in passer rating, trailing only Brady, Rodgers, and Brees. We expected the Lions to be competitive this year, but if Stafford plays like Brees and the biggest stars stay healthy, that's not just competitive — that's contender level. We may have to wait until Week 5, when the Bears travel to Detroit for Monday Night Football, to really know whether the Lions are for real, or just the 2011 version of the 2010 Chiefs.

10. Atlanta Falcons [11] — Missing two of their best linemen, center Todd McClure and DT Jonathan Babineaux, the Falcons came back from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit. The offensive line was overrun against Philadelphia in Week 2, with Trent Cole and Cullen Jenkins combining to make six tackles for a loss. Last season, Matt Ryan took 23 sacks, just 3.9% of his dropbacks. This season, Ryan has already been sacked 9 times, 10.7%. Matty Ice was credited with his 14th game-winning drive, more than anyone except Peyton Manning (15) over that period, but the team needs to protect its QB.

11. San Diego Chargers [7] — Such a frustrating team. The Chargers have the talent to beat anyone in the NFL. Against New England, they gained 470 yards and 29 first downs, including 10/12 third down conversions, which is spectacular. But they failed to convert 4th-and-goal at the one, committed several critical turnovers, and never got Antonio Gates involved. They have a very winnable but very important game against Kansas City in Week 3.

12. Chicago Bears [10] — Matt Forte caught 10 passes for 117 yards. But when Jay Cutler wasn't throwing to Forte, he was 9-of-30 for 127 yards. That smell in the air? That's the abysmal stink of failure. Cutler also took six sacks, which, seriously, that has got to stop happening. He "led" the NFL last season (52) and he leads again now (11). Forte needs to be more productive on the ground, and Cutler needs to get better protection. A lot of the blame here has to fall on Mike Martz.

13. Dallas Cowboys [13] — You people should be ashamed of yourselves. You know who you are. The ones who spent the last seven days bashing Tony Romo, talking about how he's not a winner and the Cowboys should replace him with 39-year-old Jon Kitna. That was stupid last week, but now it's also hypocritical, because you're the same people who today are hailing Romo's toughness for playing through a broken rib and a punctured lung to lead the Cowboys to an overtime victory in San Francisco. Do the rest of us a favor and never talk again. Ever.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [14] — Down 17-0 at halftime, they rallied for a 24-20 win on the road. The Bucs so far look very much like a middle-of-the-road team, but they have a critical home game against Atlanta in Week 3, and that should give us an indication of whether or not Tampa is a serious contender this season. For that matter, it might tell us that about the Falcons, as well.

15. Miami Dolphins [15] — Toughest opening schedule in the league, getting the Patriots and Texans. I don't blame them for being 0-2. If they lose to the Browns in Week 3, then I'll lose faith in them. The Dolphins need someone — Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, Anthony Fasano, Reggie Bush, someone — to step up as a secondary receiver behind Brandon Marshall. It's hard to evaluate Chad Henne when he only has one guy to throw to.

16. Buffalo Bills [23] — Fred Jackson leads the NFL in rushing yards, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of just three QBs with a +6 TD/INT differential, the others being Brady and Brees. But the Raiders and Chiefs are not impressive opposition, and allowing Oakland to score five TDs does not bode well for the defense. Let's see how they hold up against New England (Week 3) and Philadelphia (Week 5) before we view them as anything more than a team that took advantage of an easy opening schedule.

17. Washington Redskins [16] — Don't forget about Bad Rex, Washington fans. That's the one who can't read defenses, is late with his throws, and tosses gimme interceptions in the red zone. Fortunately for Washington, other players stepped up and the Cardinals are bad enough for opponents to overcome Rexy missteps. Rookie RB Roy Helu, who gained 74 yards on 10 carries, should play a bigger role in the offense. Tim Hightower still has trouble finding the hole.

18. New York Giants [17] — Spent the first half getting torn apart by the Rams, but survived on the scoreboard thanks to a pair of turnovers and a couple of defensive stands in the red zone that turned St. Louis touchdowns into field goals. The second half looked better, but there's obviously a lot of room for progress. I hate the game-planning that replaced Ahmad Bradshaw, who carried 4 times for 27 yards (6.8 avg) with Brandon Jacobs. Bradshaw is the better back, and should be getting 75% or so of the snaps at RB.

19. Oakland Raiders [18] — Got another excellent game from Darren McFadden (72 rush yd, 71 rec yd, 2 TDs), but also got another game full of penalties (8 for 85 yards). Already this season, the Raiders — who led the NFL in penalties last year — have been flagged 23 times for 216 yards. The Bills gained 34 first downs this weekend, so Oakland's defense obviously has some work to do. The penalties, including five against Buffalo that directly created first downs, aren't helping. The game yielded 935 yards of total offense.

20. Minnesota Vikings [19] — Look, Viking fans. Obviously you haven't gotten the Donovan McNabb of five or ten years ago. But what do you expect from a QB in a new system, throwing to pretty much no one of any note besides Percy Harvin? McNabb's not the one who gave up 24 points to Tampa Bay in the second half. Getting Kevin Williams back next week should help.

21. Tennessee Titans [29] — Kenny Britt continues to be as productive as Chris Johnson is not. But how about some love for the defense that did what Pittsburgh couldn't in Week 1? Cortland Finnegan knocked down three passes. Rookie DT Karl Klug forced two fumbles. Dave Ball made two tackles for a loss. Dan Morgan and Ball each got two hits on Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco. If Matt Hasselbeck can steer the boat and CJ2K ever gets on track, the Titans could make a serious run at the postseason.

22. Denver Broncos [25] — Minus Knowshon Moreno, Brandon Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas, Elvis Dumervil, and Champ Bailey, they still held off the Bengals for a 24-22 victory. Willis McGahee rushed for 100 yards, Eric Decker had 100 receiving, and much-maligned Kyle Orton posted a 111.3 passer rating. Even punter Britton Colquitt had a big game: 6 punts, 51.0 net, no touchbacks. If the Broncos ever get everyone healthy and the Chargers continue to underachieve, Denver could make a run at the AFC West title.

23. St. Louis Rams [26] — Another impressive game from third-year LB James Laurinaitis, who was credited with 14 tackles (9 solo) against New York. Steve Spagnuolo obviously had some tricks ready for his old team, but St. Louis just didn't have the tools to pull off a win. Sam Bradford completed under 50% of his passes on Monday, no thanks to his punchless receiving corps. Greg Salas brings new levels of butter to the term butterfingers. He dropped several passes and muffed a punt that the Giants recovered to set up a touchdown. I don't know what Spags was thinking kicking a PAT to make it 28-16 at the end of the fourth quarter. What do you have to lose by going to for two there?

24. Cincinnati Bengals [24] — For all the things that Andy Dalton and the offense did well on Sunday, they also went a horrific 1/13 on third- and fourth-down conversions. Cincinnati has a wonderfully forgiving schedule coming up, with three of the next four at home and five of the next six against teams ranked 21st or lower here, the lone exception being an unproven Buffalo.

25. Cleveland Browns [31] — Offense was much better against Indy than Cincy, and good red zone defense repeatedly forced the Colts to settle for field goals. Peyton Hillis rushed for 94 yards and 2 TDs this weekend, but he's averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, down a full yard from last season (4.4). Until the Browns' passing game shows more life, though, Cleveland is going to face run-oriented defenses every week.

26. Indianapolis Colts [20] — The difference between the Colts with Peyton Manning and without him? Field goals. Adam Vinatieri kicked four field goals against Cleveland, three of them from inside 40 yards. Last year, at least a couple of those would have been touchdowns. Kerry Collins posted a 62.5 passer rating against the Browns, and that doesn't include his lost fumble.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars [22] — Maurice Jones-Drew played well against the Jets (88 yds, 4.9 avg), but he can't do it by himself. Luke McCown threw for 59 yards and 4 interceptions before he was mercifully pulled for rookie Blaine Gabbert. McCown's passer rating this year is 30.6, compared to 90.8 for David Garrard last season. Jack Del Río basically fired himself when he cut Garrard. There's no way the Jags are going to be competitive this year, and Del Río was already on the hot seat.

28. San Francisco 49ers [28] — Outgained 472-206 in their deceptively close loss on Sunday. Frank Gore is off to a deeply disappointing start (53 ypg, 2.5 yds/att, 6 rec), and there's still no receiving game. Vernon Davis presumably remains a weapon, but the Niners have to get him out of blocking situations if they're going to find out.

29. Arizona Cardinals [27] — Only lost by 1 at Washington, but they were outgained by 131 yards and lost time of possession by 17 minutes. Rex Grossman and a blocked field goal kept the game competitive, but the Cardinals have serious deficiencies, especially on defense. Jeff King made some nice plays on Sunday and should play a larger role in the passing game.

30. Carolina Panthers [32] — Cam Newton continues to exceed expectations, but he's still learning (3 INT vs. Green Bay), and the rest of the team has been just as bad as advertised. They can't run and the defense stinks. I do think they'll beat Jacksonville in Week 3. If Cam Newton and/or Steve Smith are available in your fantasy league, the time has come to add them to your roster. If you have DeAngelo Williams, the time has come to drop him, or at least to secure other options and hide him on your bench.

31. Kansas City Chiefs [21] — Outscored 89-10 in their first two games. Everyone has knee injuries, and Matt Cassel has been a disaster. What surprises me most is the regression by a defense that appeared poised to disappoint a lot of fantasy owners in 2011. Instead, it's just disappointing Chiefs fans.

32. Seattle Seahawks [30] — Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson took five sacks for the second week in a row, but he led the Seahawks in rushing (12 yards). So far this season, Marshawn Lynch is averaging 2.3 yards per carry and Justin Forsett 2.2. Michael Robinson and Leon Washington have a combined two carries for 0 yards. I haven't seen the Seahawks yet this season, but statistically, I'd say Jackson is maybe the best player on the offense. Let's not misplace blame here.

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Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:52 PM | Comments (4)

September 19, 2011

Show Me the Money

As predictable as cat-fights on the "Housewives of New Jersey" or tone-deaf hopefuls on "American Idol," whenever a scandal arises involving NCAA violations, paying student-athletes is offered as remedy for all that ails college sports. The recent revelations involving Ponzi schemer Nevin Shapiro's claims of providing Miami University basketball and football players with wine, women, and all but song is no exception.

As with other NCAA embarrassments, we've heard its endlessly repeated cause as the financial exploitation of scholarship athletes. And just as surely, we've heard Rod Tidwell's endlessly repeated solution from the Jerry Maguire "show me the money" playbook of just compensation. Since everyone is fattening their wallets except those risking injuries and packing stadiums, morality demands student-athletes be shown some "benjamins."

Yet satisfying what to some are Oliver Twists in high top sneakers and shoulder pads by offering a piece of the NCAA economic pie will not transform the scandal du jour into a rare occurrence. In fact, doing so will create far more problems than it eliminates.

At its essence, the argument to pay student-athletes is based on fairness. The supposedly nonprofit NCAA takes in over $750 million annually from broadcasting rights, licensing deals involving student images, and gate receipts. Universities generate revenue from selling likenesses of athletes used in video games, from lucrative deals with shoe companies such as Nike or Reebok, and from peddling everything from game tickets to game jerseys.

Forced to relinquish commercial rights to their own images and making enormous demands on their time and bodies, the pay-for-play crowd sees student-athletes as modern day indentured servants. Often coming from impoverished backgrounds and with little or no pocket money, temptation is overwhelming to illegally accept gifts from boosters seeking ego gratification, from bookies seeking point-shaving favors, and from agents seeking clients. Continuing to enrich college athletics without fairly enriching those most responsible for generating its revenue is, many insist, immoral, exploitative, and another NCAA scandal waiting to happen.

But believing that providing college athletes with "laundry money" for personal expenses will counter the largesse offered by unscrupulous "jock sniffers" is to believe what never has been and what never will be. Simply put, the money that college athletic programs could offer student-athletes is "chump change" compared to what they're already being offered under-the-table. And the reason for this has nothing to do with a lack of compassion, appreciation, or generosity for the efforts of student-athletes. More than anything, it has to do with bottom line dollars and cents.

Despite lucrative broadcasting contracts and full stadiums for collegiate basketball and football, virtually all other collegiate athletic programs lose money. Even the perennial champion UConn women's basketball team lost over $700,000 last year. And if this was the grim economic reality for the celebrated Lady Huskies, what then of track and field, gymnastics, swimming, soccer, and other programs too numerous to mention?

In 2010, 53 public schools in the six largest collegiate conferences lost almost $110 million from women's teams. At the same time at the same schools in the same conferences, men's teams had profits of $240 million. And while some of this revenue paid for a few high profile college coaches and university presidents, it also funded labs, libraries, dorms, and athletic programs running deficits. So even by limiting "salaries" to student-athletes in profit-generating sports, other programs operating in the red and supported by their revenue would surely suffer from such robbing Peter to pay Paul handouts.

Moreover, because Title IX prohibits sex discrimination at educational institutions receiving federal funds, pay-for-play stipends could not legally be limited to profitable programs. If basketball and football players are paid, all student-athletes must similarly be compensated. The costs of such equality would foster the cannibalization of educational budgets even at schools not already operating close to the financial edge.

The only way to maintain the financial integrity of non-profitable athletic and educational programs and still pay student-athletes would be for someone to pick up the tab. And other than taxpayers, that "someone" would likely be higher tuitions for students who can't run 4.5 forties or hit threes from downtown.

Beyond the devil in the details problems of paying student-athletes a salary, the reality is that a college scholarship is already fair compensation for their efforts. While the tangible worth of "full ride" four-year athletic scholarships at major private universities exceeds $200,000, the lifetime dollars and cents value of a college degree is easily three times that amount.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, people graduating with a bachelor's degree earn nearly twice as much over a lifetime as those only completing high school. The College Board estimates that earnings potential for college graduates is at least $800,000 more than for those ending their formal education as high school seniors.

And while it may be debated what the actual monetary value of a college education is, there is little doubt its intrinsic value as a life changing experience extends far beyond increased purchasing power. Whatever its amount, a salary quickly disappears. If education is used to better one's existence in ways having nothing to do with materialistic concerns, its value is incalculable. After all, what is the opportunity to turn one's life around actually worth?

How then are student-athletes taken advantage of by receiving a free education that otherwise might well be beyond their financial reach? How then are scholarship athletes exploited gaining admission to universities with transcripts inferior to less physically gifted students often rejected from those same institutions? How then is refusing student-athletes a salary unjust even though their free rides are largely funded by taxpayers and other equally broke students paying off college loans long after graduation? And how will stipends for jocks already viewed as campus luminaries not further contribute to an entitlement mentality fostered by privileges including priority class scheduling, excused absences, tutoring assistance, and "athlete-friendly" professors?

Even the rationale that a salary would provide student-athletes from impoverished backgrounds spending money not available elsewhere is bogus. Seemingly reasonable, why shouldn't kids making enormous sacrifices in time and effort for the betterment of the entire university receive a few bucks for an occasional pizza or a movie? Aside from the budgetary damage to non-profitable programs, such "modest salaries" would engender and overlooking the value of the free education provided, those favoring athlete spending allowances ignore the money already available from the NCAA and from Uncle Sam.

The National Collegiate Athletic Association allocates money to a Special Assistance Fund for low-income athletes to use for clothing, travel home, and "other essential expenses." Moreover, the Federal Government provides Pell Grant aid to students depending on financial need and costs of college attendance. As with the NCAA aid, Pell grants are not paid back and can be as much as $5,550 for the current academic year.

It would seem that applying for such assistance shouldn't be too great a hardship for athletes in dire need of pocket money. And it would also seem that once granted, $154 a week for a nine-month academic term would be more than enough for pizzas, whatever their topping, and for movies, whatever their price of admission.

Few could deny that efforts made by student-athletes benefit their entire university communities. But suggesting they are not fairly compensated for sacrifices willingly made is highly debatable at best and absurd at worst. After all, where else can kids just out of high school receive goods and services valued at $50,000 per year by playing a game they love? Where else can college freshmen gain a cost-free chance to multiply that amount by a lifetime factor of 10 while becoming celebrities after arriving on campus? And where else can "accident of birth" athleticism be parlayed into a no-cost education paying lifelong emotional and financial dividends whatever path is ultimately chosen?

Despite demands for fairness and claims of exploitation, the current non-salaried connection scholarship athletes have with their schools is not a zero sum game. By any reasonable standard, it more closely resembles a win-win relationship. Yet insisting the opportunities afforded student-athletes are not enough, the pay-for-play crowd sees things far differently.

Even though student-athletes are already fairly compensated, even though paying them will harm other programs, and even though funds are already available for poor students, their "show me the money" mantra is blindly accepted as the righteous cure-all for what is wrong with college sports. Somewhere Rod Tidwell is smiling.

Posted by Neil Bright at 5:48 PM | Comments (5)

Oh, Ryno, Give Us One More Chance

In the romantic comedy movie that is the Chicago Cubs/Ryne Sandberg relationship, it's just about time for the Cubs to stand outside Ryno's window, blast Peter Gabriel's "In Your Eyes" from an old boom box, and ask for another chance.

Last October — to the shock of many — the Chicago Cubs announced that Mike Quade would succeed Lou Piniella as manager of the team. Sandberg, who had been patiently biding his time working through the farm system, was understandably disappointed.

"There was no other job offering other than, 'We'd like you to come to spring training, hit a couple of fungoes and walk around.' At that point, I knew it was time to move on," Sandberg said in an interview the Chicago Sun-Times.

He certainly made the best of a bad situation. Almost immediately, he was offered the managerial position for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the AAA affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies. A relatively new franchise, the IronPigs had never finished above .500 in their brief existence.

Enter Sandberg.

Currently in his fifth season managing minor league ball teams, Sandberg's IronPigs finished 16 games above .500 at 80-64, second place in the International League. In fact, Sandberg has only finished below .500 in one of his five seasons managing (2008, Peoria). His final season as a manager in the Cubs farm system was one in which the Iowa Cubs finished a healthy 82-62, first place in the Pacific Coast League. That season earned Ryno the 2010 Minor League Manager of the Year honor.

Quade, on the other hand, has suffered through a nightmare season at Wrigley Field, his 24-13 interim stint in 2010 now long forgotten. Sitting at 65-85 — a whopping 22 games behind the surprising Milwaukee Brewers — Sandberg probably couldn't have done much to change the fate of an aging team marred by injuries, lackadaisical play, and a notable outburst by a former "ace." Mike Quade has handled the adversity with grace and as much patience as a competitive man can possibly display. He has done very little to lose his job, but he has done equally as little to argue it should remain his.

The time is now for the Cubs to hand the reins to Ryno.

It's as though the Cubs are a man going through an identity crisis. They chose to date the sexy, unknown girl (Quade) instead of the other (Sandberg) who had already cared for them in joyous times (mid-to-late-'80s), depressing times (early-'90s), and hopeless times (1997). The longtime friend became a confidante for the organization (agreeing to manage low-level affiliates), without ever asking for anything in return — other than a chance to be considered in the end.

Sandberg's love seemed to have gone unrequited, but it may have been a blessing in disguise.

Had the 2011 Cubs hired Sandberg, he would have been inundated with, "should they have gone with Quade?" questions, injuries to several key contributors, and a dismal team chemistry that never seemed to jell. It was a situation primed for failure.

But now, through no real fault of Quade's, it seems time to cut ties with this unknown girl (who wasn't a bad person, the Cubs just ended up realizing she wasn't the one), and make an offer Sandberg can't refuse.

I know the main critique: experience. The irony as always with this critique is that everyone needs experience in order to get experience. Looking at Sandberg's .516 career winning percentage over five minor league seasons, his healthy rapport with many of the Cubs' current minor- and major-leaguers (second baseman Darwin Barney said he'd by "lying" if he said he wouldn't want to play for him in the bigs), and his sheer desire to manage, it is hard to deny that he deserves the opportunity. The guy knows what he's doing.

Couple all of the aforementioned details with the fact that Sandberg is a Cub. This isn't someone who is up for a "challenge." This is someone who loves the team. He wants them to win — not for his legacy — but for Wrigley, for the fans, for the city of Chicago. Look what happened when Ditka (a former Bear) coached Da Bears … when Ozzie Guillen managed the Sox … I'm not suggesting a championship is guaranteed in hiring a former player, but I am asserting that the motivation of a legacy to win comes from somewhere deeper than mere competitive juice.

No romantic movies ever end with minor gestures. This one shouldn't, either. If the Cubs want to have the best shot to return to prominence in the next three to five years, they need to make Ryno their next manager.

If he'll take them back.

Posted by Louie Centanni at 4:24 PM | Comments (1)

September 16, 2011

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

We're two weeks into the 2011-12 season, so let's take an early look at the good, the bad and the ugly so far this season.

Without wasting another minute, here we go...

GOOD: Washington State's start

As dark as the last several years have been, how elated are the folks in Pullman for starting the year 2-0? Sure, the wins were over Idaho State and UNLV, but take a look at the current stats nationwide and you'll see the Cougars near the top in total offense. Add the fact that starting QB Jeff Tuel suffered an injury in the first game, and you're more impressed with the job Wazzu has done. Marshall Lobbestael has filled in nicely so far, and with how bad the bottom of the Pac-12 looks so far (cough, Oregon State, cough), the Cougars are potentially looking at their best season in a long time.

BAD: Florida Atlantic's offense

True, the Owls have played Florida and Michigan State, but to average 92.5 yards of offense defines what plain bad is all about. The Owls recorded just one first down last week in the 44-0 drubbing they took in East Lansing. Has the team just quit already after hearing Howard Schnellenberger is retiring after this season? Hopefully FAU picks it up in a hurry. Schnellenberger is too good a coach and had way too good a career to go out like this.

GOOD: Oklahoma State

Think the Cowboy offense lost a step when Dana Holgerson left for West Virginia? They haven't. OSU is a worthy challenger to OU and Texas A&M for what seems to be the final Big 12 crown. Tirade aside, Mike Gundy has done an outstanding job in bringing talent to Stillwater and turning Oklahoma State into one of the better teams in the country this season. Watching Justin Blackmon on the field is worth the price of admission to Boone Pickens Stadium. A BCS bowl game looks very much a possibility for the Pokes.

UGLY: Maryland's uniforms

Might as well chip in my two cents here. Half of Maryland's uniforms make me think I'm at Medieval Times. The other half makes me want to hail a taxi. The state flag does not need to be on a helmet! May I repeat: THE STATE FLAG DOES NOT NEED TO BE ON A HELMET. While the last helmets were a tribute to lazy, the new ones are just hideous. Can't someone just put the classic M logo with the Terrapin on it? That would be a better alternative than the eyesore they displayed against Miami.

GOOD: Florida State vs. Oklahoma

Thank the 'Noles and Sooners for scheduling this one. It's nice to see some of the big boys willing to take on tough non-conference challenges, especially early in the season. I'll give credit as well to LSU and Oregon, to Arkansas and Texas A&M, who play October 1st in Dallas, and even to Alabama and Penn State, though the Nittany Lions have greatly faded as a national power over the last couple of years.

BAD: UNLV

Thrashed by Wisconsin. Thrashed worse by Washington State. Ranked the fifth worst in total offense, the third worst in total defense and second worst in scoring defense. You'll find much better action on the Strip then at Sam Boyd Stadium this year.

GOOD: Iowa State

The Big 12 school that no one wants or discusses in realignment went out and beat in-state foe Iowa in triple overtime last weekend. As Cyclone AD Jamie Pollard said, ISU definitely needed that moment. Bask away, Cyclones. Small market, but big hearts found in Ames.

UGLY: Memphis

Think UNLV was bad? Dead-last in total defense. Third worst in scoring defense. Sixth worst in scoring offense. Seventh worst in total offense. Beale Street has nothing on these Tiger blues. Being dominated by Mississippi State is one thing. Losing 47-3 to Arkansas State? There aren't enough rocks in town for Memphis fans to crawl under. Larry Porter, you have your work well cut out for you.

GOOD: Tyler Bray, QB, Tennessee

Bray's averaging 349 yards a game. has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions. Derek Dooley can't ask much more from the sophomore quarterback right now.

BAD: Ole Miss offense

The Rebels are averaging 261.5 yards per game on offense. Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson is averaging 259 yards through the air ... and last week he only played the first half.

GOOD: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Florida International

Louisville couldn't stop this guy all night. Don't let the Sun Belt jersey fool you. Hilton is the real deal; he has great hands and tremendous speed. NFL teams are lining up to get this kid.

UGLY: Missouri State's non-conference schedule

The Bears, who took a 51-7 pounding from Arkansas, now head this weekend to Oregon. Ouch. There's not a college football team out there who wants those two teams together in a three week stretch. Hope the Bears are getting paid well.

Ending on a high note here...

GOOD: James Franklin, Vanderbilt head coach

Franklin is a typhoon of fresh air into what was an immensely stale Vanderbilt program. He has relentlessly recruited, already lining up what could be the best class in Commodore history. He has pumped energy into his players, who have responded by starting 2-0, including a comeback win over Connecticut. He then brought on the field an energetic 11-year old-fan, born without a left leg and missing some fingers, but lacking nothing in heart and drive on the Vandy sideline. There's so much positive energy around Franklin that it gives one actual belief that Vandy's days in the cellar might start to change in the upcoming seasons.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 4:59 PM | Comments (1)

September 15, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 2

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Seattle @ Pittsburgh (-12½)

It's a rematch of Super Bowl XL as the Steelers try to rebound from last week's 35-7 loss in Baltimore, Pittsburgh's worst loss since The Fish That Saved Pittsburgh era. The Steelers turned the ball over 7 times, including 5 by Ben Roethlisberger.

"Most observers were right," Ben Roethlisberger said. "Last week's game in Baltimore was a defensive struggle, except only our defense struggled. Indeed, we got our asses handed to us. Me? I don't mind ass being handed to me, as long as it's not my own. And speaking of asses being handed out, as a young, rich, privileged athlete, that's exactly how I used to get it before my prearranged marriage changed things."

A tall order for the Seahawks lies ahead, as they confront an embarrassed Steelers squad anxious to right their ship. Pete Carroll knows his motivational skills will be in demand to prepare his team for what is sure to be a fired up Pittsburgh team.

"It's one thing to fear the Steelers," Carroll said. "It's another to respect them. We do both. Sure, it's quite a task playing an angry Pittsburgh team at home, after an emotional division loss, with their pride bruised. But I've faced bigger obstacles, like facing the NCAA in absentia. Like that day, I think I'd rather be elsewhere during this one. I don't expect Mike Tomlin to hold anything back. After the game, I do expect I'll be saying to Tomlin, 'What's your deal?'"

The Steelers force a Tarvaris Jackson fumble on the third play from scrimmage, and Roethlisberger cashes in quickly with a 35-yard touchdown strike to Mike Wallace. And the rout is on. Three more Jackson turnovers later, Carroll wishes "Tarvaris" was his heartburn medication and not his quarterback.

Pittsburgh wins, 31-13.

Baltimore @ Tennessee (+4)

Fresh off signing a $53 million contract extension, Chris Johnson rushed for a measly 24 yards on 9 carries in the Titans' 16-14 loss to the Jaguars this week. It certainly won't be easier against a Ravens defense that forced 7 Pittsburgh turnovers in pounding the Steelers 35-7.

"It's hard to run when your pockets are this heavy," Johnson said. "I stole a quote from former teammate Kerry Collins when I said 'I'm loaded.' The Titans now know very well that it's much easier to validate a check than it is to validate a contract. Should I pull an 'Albert Haynesworth' and do nothing else, I'll have earned the nickname 'Stash and Dash.'"

The Ravens 2011 campaign took off with flying colors, black and blue, in last week's 35-7 drubbing of the Steelers. Baltimore forced 7 turnovers, including 5 by Ben Roethlisberger, and the Ravens will look to harass Matt Hasselbeck in similar fashion.

"Last week," Joe Flacco said, "we made a statement. This week, we're going to punctuate it, with a question mark, because after the game, everyone will be asking, 'How can you beat the Steelers by 28, and the Titans by only 13?'"

The Ravens dominate from the start, as Ray Lewis leads his teammates in a pre-game speech dripping with such intensity that it sends chills down their spines, as well as that of Eddie George. Lewis then correctly calls 'heads' at the coin toss, which the intimidated Seahawks captains interpret more as a threat to their safety than a choice of a coin side.

"We want the ball and we're gonna score," quoth the Raven, with a nod to Tennessee captain Hasselbeck.

Baltimore wins, 25-12.

Jacksonville @ NY Jets (-10)

The Jaguars fared well without David Garrard, as Luke McCown was an efficient 17-of-24 for 175 yards in the Jags' 16-14 win over Tennessee last week.

"Luke played like a man," Jack Del Rio said. "And he dresses like one, too. Unlike Mark Sanchez, you would never see Luke in a men's fashion magazine, if for no other reason than he's never been asked to appear in one. I've never been taken aback more by a 'spread' offense. Sanchez puts the 'Q' in GQ. He simply overdid it. You know you've gone too far when Joe Namath is asking you for kisses."

The Jets scored 17 fourth quarter points to stun the Cowboys 27-24. Isaiah Trufant's return of a blocked point tied it at 24, and Nick Folk won it with a 50-yard field goal with 27 seconds left.

"Don't forget about Plaxico Burress' fourth quarter touchdown catch that started the flurry," Sanchez said. "We call that play the 'post bail' route. Plaxico's performance has validated our decision to sign him after his release from jail. He made a great move to get open. I've always knew that if Plaxico could get 'outside,' he could do some damage."

Prior to kickoff, Sanchez texts an anonymous photo to Rex Ryan of Sanchez in a pair of black, high-heeled shoes, and asks Ryan to meet him in the housekeeping closet. Ryan, his foot-fetish jones at full throttle, rushes to the closet, where a note awaits saying, "You just bit on a 'pump' fake.'" Ryan takes the prank good-naturedly, and benches Sanchez for the game's first series.

Upon returning, Sanchez and the Jets establish the running game behind Shonn Greene, who piles up 109 yards on the ground. Later, Sanchez runs play-action to perfection, and finds Santonio Holmes for a fourth-quarter score that puts the game away.

New York wins, 28-13.

Arizona @ Washington (-4)

The Redskins could go 2-0 with a win over the Cardinals, a team that surrendered 422 yards passing to rookie Cam Newton last week. With a win and a Philadelphia loss, Washington would sit all alone atop the NFC East.

"This team is rallying behind Rex Grossman," Mike Shanahan. "Our motto is 'We believe.' More specifically, 'We believe ... that we will need a new motto as soon as Rex regresses.'"

Kevin Kolb's debut as a Cardinal was a success, as he passed for 309 yards and 2 touchdowns in Arizona's win over Carolina.

"Kevin Kolb fever is sweeping the desert," Kolb said. "Even Arizona's Hispanic population adores me. They call me 'K-Pass-a.' I'm what's happening. My motivation is to make the Eagles regret trading me. But I don't regret for a second going from the Eagles to the Cardinals. Philly 'flipped a bird,' and so can I."

Washington wins, 24-17.

Oakland @ Buffalo (-4)

The teams of the NFL's two oldest owners meet when 82-year-old Al Davis' Raiders travel to Buffalo to face the Bills of 92-year-old Ralph Wilson. The Bills smashed the Chiefs 41-7 last week and look to go 2-0 against the AFC West.

"Al and Ralph have certainly battled before," said Chan Gailey. "Ralph's longevity is amazing. What's most amazing is that Ralph is a full 10 years older than Al, yet he's only 92. You'd think he'd be at least 110, or dead.

"But enough about those geezers. Let's talk about the 1-0 Bills, who are a force to be reckoned with. I've got a bunch of hard-working guys whom I like to call the 'Chan Gang.' And despite of what the general public thinks, the Bills are not playing for second."

The Raiders beat the Broncos in Denver 23-20 last Monday night, Oakland's fourth-straight win in Denver. In that game, Sebastian Janikowski booted a 63-yard field goal, tying the NFL record.

"What a kick by Sebastian," said Hue Jackson. "I'm not sure that kick clears the crossbar if it had not been kicked in Denver. Sebastian likes his air clear and dry, and his women hazy and moist."

The Raiders rush for 191 yards on the ground, and Janikowski boots a 45-yard field goal into an arousing stiff wind. Oakland wins, 24-20.

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota (-3)

Two of the NFL's young, up-and-coming coaches face off in Minnesota, when Raheem Morris' Bucs face Leslie Frazier's Vikings in Mall of America Field, the NFL's only indoor stadium where avalanches are possible.

"Raheem and Leslie?" Jared Allen asked. "What is this? A Soul Train couple's 'Spotlight Dance?' If so, give my regards to Don Cornelius.

"We'll need a little more out of Donovan McNabb's than the 39 yards passing he managed in last week's 24-17 loss to the Chargers. His predecessor, Brett Favre, made his share of comebacks. But we need Donovan to do him one better, and make an in-season comeback. Donovan needs to step it up. Otherwise, we'll be forced to do something drastic. Get Favre out of retirement? Heavens no. Something with far fewer implications — sacrificing a 'Christian.' Christian Ponder is McNabb's backup, and apparently, he needs the work."

The Bucs fell in Detroit 27-20, but the NFL week was not a total disaster. All four NFC South teams lost, so they will all begin Week 2 on even terms.

"That's good to know," Josh Freeman said. "I'm quite surprised by the fate of the South. If you would have told me at the beginning of the year that one division would start the season winless, I would have guessed the NFC West. I also would have guessed that the West's first win would come in Week 5."

The Bucs race to a fast start, as Freeman finds Mike Williams for a score on their first possession. On the Vikes' first possession, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy knocks the stuffing out of McNabb, literally, as McNabb's pre-game meal consisted of some turkey and dressing, which has the public address announcer asking for "cleanup on the 23 yard line."

Tampa Bay wins, 26-21.

Chicago @ New Orleans (-7)

With Marques Colston's broken collarbone sustained in last week's loss at Green Bay, rumors have been swirling about the possibility of Randy Moss signing with the Saints. The Saints, of course, have denied any contact with Moss.

"Let me state the obvious," said Sean Payton. "Randy Moss is no Saint. If he was, he'd be 'St. Elsewhere.' To further hammer home my point, let me take a page from Sugar Ray Leonard-Roberto Duran II, which took place right here in the Superdome, and say 'No Moss.'"

The Bears looked very much like last year's NFC North champs in handily dispatching the Falcons 30-12 last week. On Sunday in the "Big Easy," they'll look to go 2-0 against the NFC South's best.

"Lance Briggs sets the tone for this team," Matt Forte said. "Every year, he complains of being under-appreciated. That feeling rubs off on us, because we're always under-appreciated. So we strive to prove them wrong. Jay Cutler is a perfect example. We're hoping he can again put this team on his back and carry us. There's no doubt he can do it. Last year, after excusing himself from the NFC championship game, he was 'ridden' by everybody."

Drew Brees picks apart the Bear defense, and the Saints defense redeems itself by forcing three Cutler turnovers. New Orleans withstands a late Chicago flurry, but holds on the win, 32-27.

Green Bay @ Carolina (+10)

In a losing effort, Cam Newton passed for 422 yards and 2 touchdowns, breaking the NFL record for most passing yards by a rookie in his debut, easily outpacing Otto Graham's 346 yards. Newton also tied Matthew Stafford's record for yardage by a rookie in a game.

"422 yards and 2 scores?" Charles Woodson said. "Wow. He looked like Drew Brees out there. More specifically, he looked like Drew Brees, against us, in our September 8th opener.

"But thank goodness Newton only tied Stafford's record. Stafford's already had enough things broken; he doesn't need yet another."

The Panthers defense will be charged with stopping Aaron Rodgers without defensive anchor Jon Beason, who is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. Carolina gave up 397 yards to Arizona, and will have to keep Rodgers in check to have a chance.

"There's only one defense that dictates how many points we put on the board," Rodgers said, "and that's our own. Great defenses don't give up 34 points. And great defenses don't give up 422 yards passing to a rookie. Newton was impressive. Heck, he's a man among men. But we've got his number."

Newton finds the going much tougher, as the Packers blitz him mercilessly. He does, however, earn a great deal of respect when he repels a Woodson sack attempt with a stiff-armed Heisman pose, then scrambles and finds DeAngelo Williams for a late score that cuts the Panther deficit to 17 late in the fourth quarter.

Green Bay wins, 34-17.

Cleveland @ Indianapolis (+1)

After last week's 34-7 loss in Houston, Peyton Manning's value to the Colts is even more evident. Kerry Collins was un-Manning-like, going 16 for 31 for 197 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 lost fumbles.

"Let's not condemn Collins just yet," said Jim Caldwell. "He hasn't had an easy time filling Peyton's shoes. Why, Collins may be the first 'replacement' player to cross a picket line condemning his actions in a non-strike year. That takes courage, my friend."

The Browns took their first lump in the tough AFC North, falling 27-17 at home to the underdog Bengals. Even with Peyton Manning on the sidelines, winning in Indianapolis is still a daunting task for the Browns, as well as the Colts.

"I can't win games by myself," McCoy said. "The following statement doesn't apply to Manning, but it does to me: 'One 'Colt' does not make a team.'

"The crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium is always loud. They'll likely be screaming their heads off, and/or screaming for the head of Collins. Obviously, Collins is worth less than Manning. Collins, in fact, may be just plain worthless."

The Colts add some new "wrinkles" to their offense, which is what a lot of people said when they signed Collins as a backup. But these new wrinkles involve a lot more rushing plays, some wildcat formations, reverses, and option passes. Anything to get the ball out of Collins' right arm.

Indianapolis wins, 27-23.

Kansas City @ Detroit (-8)

So far, so good for the Lions. One game into the season and Detroit is undefeated, quarterback Matthew Stafford is not on the injury list, and Matt Millen remains far, far removed from the operations of the team.

"I think Stafford deserves a pat on the back," said Ndamukong Suh. "But not from me. That's libel to draw a roughing penalty from some lightweight, buggy-whip-armed official who thinks I have anger management issues. Well, I don't have anger management issues; I only have one."

The Chiefs look to rebound from a devastating 41-7 loss at Arrowhead Stadium to the Bills. The sting of the loss continued to reverberate, as the team learned on Monday safety Eric Berry was lost for the season with a torn ACL.

"They say the Bills like to 'circle the wagons,'" Todd Haley said. "Well, they certainly did just that, circling those wagons until they had lapped us several times. Suddenly, the playoffs seem like a distant memory. But we're not discouraged. We'll go out and fight our hardest. It's like one coach said once, 'You play to win the game.' Fortunately, my team doesn't need to hear that, because they learned that basic concept of football by the age of two."

Detroit wins, 28-24.

Dallas @ San Francisco (+3)

The Cowboys saw a near-win vanish when Tony Romo was intercepted by Darrelle Revis with less than a minute left. Nick Folk's field goal won it, and Romo was left to ponder what might have been.

"I take full responsibility for the loss," Romo said. "In addition to the interception, I lost a fumble at the Jets two-yard line earlier. Apparently, I handle pressure like a field goal snap in Seattle. But Jerry Jones said I played one of best games he's ever seen of me. He called me 'outstanding.' Jerry's 'got my back.' Maybe a little too much of it, but he's got it nonetheless."

The 49ers, under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, vanquished the Seahawks behind a solid game from Alex Smith and a spectacular one from Ted Ginn who zapped the Seahawks with two return touchdowns, one on a kickoff, the other on a punt.

"Is any one surprised by Ginn?" Harbaugh said. "Ohio State had to give back wins, so it makes sense that Ginn, an OSU alum, made 'returns' of his own."

The Cowboys kick away from Ginn, and DeMarcus Ware sacks Alex Smith twice. Romo throws for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Dallas wins, 27-17.

Cincinnati @ Denver (-4)

The Bengals made do just fine without Carson Palmer, as Andy Dalton started and Bruce Gradkowski finished in a 27-17 win in Cleveland. Cedric Benson rushed for 121 yards and a score to power the Bengals.

"I allowed Cedric to skip two days of practice," Marvin Lewis said. "That's time off for good behavior."

One game into the season, and already there's quarterback controversy in Denver. Kyle Orton's play Monday night against the Raiders was unsatisfactory, and Broncos fans were heard chanting "Te-bo! Te-Bow!", which sounds a lot like "He blows! He blows!" and may very well be the first time in history fans have chanted for a third-stringer.

"Fans were chanting Tebow's name in Mile High Stadium?" John Fox said. "I guess that's a 'higher calling.' Sorry, Jesus freaks. Orton is the starter."

Denver wins, 22-15.

Houston @ Miami (+3)

Even without running back and fantasy darling Arian Foster, the Texans rolled over the Colts 34-7 as Derrick Ward and Ben Tate combined for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground. Foster is expected to play when the Texans travel to Miami to challenge the 0-1 Dolphins.

"How do you know you've made it big in the NFL?" Foster said. "When fans are asking you to sign a picture of your hamstring. I see nothing wrong with posing for pictures in GQ magazine, just as I see nothing wrong with appearing in Fantasy Bust magazine, as long as it's the Fantasy Bust issue that's not in the sports section."

The Miami offense showed up last Monday against the Patriots, as Chad Henne threw for 416 yards and rushed for 59 more. The Dolphins defense was elsewhere, surrendering a whopping 622 yards in total offense.

"That was 'Miami Viscera,'" Tony Sparano said. "The fans in Miami didn't bother shouting 'Defense! Defense!' That's because our defense wasn't on the field long enough to hear it."

The Miami defense shows up this time, at least those players that haven't been released. Chad Henne throws for 2 scores, and Reggie Bush returns a punt for a score.

Miami wins, 34-31.

San Diego @ New England (-7)

Are the Patriots prepared to face a Chargers team that is already in midseason form? San Diego out-gained the Vikings by 220 yards last week, and posted 21 more first downs, yet still only won by seven.

"Say what you will," said Philip Rivers, "but we regard ourselves as the best team in the league, more or less. That's because we do more than enough to win, and usually win by less than you'd expect."

The Chargers' defense will likely see more than the 39 yards passing they surrendered last week, as Tom Brady exploded for 517 yards and 4 touchdowns against a Miami defense that had no answers for the Patriot offense.

"I'm the face of the NFL," Brady said. "Peyton Manning is the neck, Michael Vick is the feet, and Ryan Leaf was the 'waste.' Rivers has the tools, but he has nowhere to put them."

Brady throws for 274 and 2 scores, while Rivers passes for 301 and 3 scores. San Diego's kicker Nick Novak misses a 45-yard field goal as time expires.

Patriots win, 30-27.

Philadelphia @ Atlanta (+1)

There will be no welcome mat for Michael Vick when he makes his return to Atlanta on Sunday. He and the Eagles take on a Falcon team smarting from a lopsided, physical loss in Chicago last week.

"Who says you can never go home again?" Vick said. "I'll tell you who — bankruptcy lawyers. But I expect a heroes' welcome when I enter the Georgia Dome. Note, that's a heroes' welcome, as opposed to a hero's welcome, because none off those people think I'm a hero. But I think all of those people who paid big money just to come boo me are my heroes."

The Falcons looked sloppy in a 30-12 loss to the Bears. Receiver Roddy White felt so bad about his performance that he apologized for it.

"We're so sorry," White said. "That goes out to our biggest fan, Uncle Albert."

Vick is kept in check, shadowed by a number of Falcons defenders throughout the day. Michael Turner rushes for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Atlanta wins, 26-23.

St. Louis @ NY Giants (-4½)

Pity the poor Rams. In last week's loss to the Eagles, St. Louis starters Sam Bradford, Steven Jackson, Jason Smith, Danny Amendola, and Ron Bartell were all injured, with Amendola and Bartell likely out for the season. Jackson won't play Monday due to an injured quadriceps, but Bradford is expected to play.

"Our injury list is long and distinguished," Steve Spagnuolo said. "And so's my Johnson. In this case, counting 'sheep' doesn't help me sleep at all."

The Giants were thoroughly outclassed by the Redskins in a 28-14 loss at FedEx Field, and Rex Grossman outplayed Eli Manning, who was 19-of-32 for 268 yards and a quarterback rating of 70.8.

"It was strange being the only Manning on an NFL field last Sunday," Manning said. "I really feel for Peyton and those injured Rams. Luckily, doctors haven't ruled me out of Monday's contest. Keep in mind, if you asked doctors who are also Giants fan, you're likely to get a different answer.

"Okay, so I'm not in a class with Tom Brady. But I would say I am in a class with Sam Bradford. Our genetic makeup is similar. He's got Indian in him; after four sacks and countless hits from the 'Skins last week, I've got Indian on me. That's offensive, which is more than I can say about our ability to move the ball."

New York wins, 27-20.

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Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 5:04 PM | Comments (1)

College Football Odds and Ends

Hooray! At last, football is back! Maybe it's because of the near-strike in the NFL, or because I attended a game at a historical venue (more on that later), or maybe it's because I'm in a relationship for this first time with a chica who actually likes sports, but I find myself appreciating it all the more this season.

As a Notre Dame hater, I've enjoyed watching them start out 0-2, and see any hopes of a national championship bid vanquished. That said, this team is better, much better, than their record right now indicates. Not only does Notre Dame lead the nation in turnovers (10), but almost all of them have been crucial red-zone turnovers. That's really the only way (besides penalties) that a good team beats itself, because fast players will not turn slow, strong players will not turn weak.

That said, we also don't know how good Notre Dame's opponents have been yet. Neither Michigan nor South Florida came into the season with much in the way of expectations, and besides Notre Dame, the two schools have only faced MAC opposition. Their next opponent, Michigan State, also hasn't played anybody yet, but they do have expectations this year and are coming off their finest season in a long while. If you want to know how good Notre Dame will be this year, watch them against Michigan State.

I attended Texas A&M's opening win over SMU the Sunday before last. Believe it or not, it was by far the largest-scale college game I have ever attended — I was too much of an emo snob to go to games when I was a student at Ohio State in the mid-'90s, and that leaves the laughably poorly-attended Akron games I have been to, and a game at the University of Delaware.

It was glorious. A&M's reputation for being one of the most tradition-laden, intimidating places to play are well-founded. The campus area was a lot of fun, too. I've been to my share of college bars, including several as a thirty-something, but I felt less conspicuously way-older-than-everyone, you-don't-belong-here-old-man at O'Bannon's in College Station than I have felt anywhere else. I also had lunch at a hidden gem called the Potato Shack — a place featuring giant baked potatoes stuffed with all sorts of things you don't normally associate with baked potatoes. I ordered mine with taco meat and queso cheese. Heavenly. I was licking the tin foil after I was done.

As far as the product on the field goes: A&M is ranked higher than they have been in a long time, and they look like they deserve it. The 46-14 scoreline is still probably not as close as the score indicates, as A&M was utterly dominant except for about half a quarter in the first half when the Mustangs put together back-to-back touchdown drives. Don't forget, SMU won Conference USA's West division last year.

The Aggies will find out how good they are in short order. Half of the Big 12 is ranked, and two that aren't — Iowa State and Missouri — had an impressive upset win and a tough overtime road loss against a good team, respectively, in Week 2.

Even though SMU was blown off the field, head coach June Jones made a bold and impressive move. After their quarterback, Kyle Padron, gave up two early picks and suffered a couple of sacks, Jones pulled him for J.J. McDermott.

The reason that's a big deal is Padron came into the season with big expectations and a number of SMU career passing records within reach. That's not a guy you would typically give the hook to. But it was the right move, as McDermott went 21-for-34 with a touchdown and no interceptions. Ironically, the last team I remember benching such a highly-touted quarterback was their opponent, last year: the Aggies' Jerrod Johnson made many preseason all-Big 12 lists, and no one had heard yet of Ryan Tannehill yet.

On the upset front, there have been two so far that are significant. One was in Week 1, when Division 1-AA (for the uninitiated, I refuse to call the lower echelon of Division 1 football "FCS") Sacramento State took down Oregon State. Oregon State has slid quite dramatically in the last two years. The season before last, they played Oregon in their final regular season game with a Pac-10 title on the line. They slipped to the middle of the pack last year, and this year is looking like a good bet to land in the Pac-12 basement.

I'm less amped about this upset than I would be otherwise, because I sort of like Oregon State. Maybe it's because I hate their in-state rival, Nike Laboratories, Inc., so much.

The other big upset was New Mexico State knocking off Minnesota, which I think we can start talking about now that it looks like Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill is fine and will coach this week after suffering a seizure on the sidelines in this game.

Minnesota had to have high hopes after nearly beating USC the week before, and now have crashed back to earth. New Mexico State came into the game on the heels of a blowout loss at home to Ohio University, and has had four winning seasons and no bowls (the longest streak in Division 1-A) in the last 40 years.

No team has had more of an embarrassing run against 1-AA opponents and lower-echelon 1-A opponents than Minnesota over the last few years. In 2006, they escaped the Metrodome with a 10-9 win over 1-AA North Dakota State when NDSU missed a field goad as time expired. A sampling of results since then:

2007: Bowling Green 32, Minnesota 31
2007: Florida Atlantic 42, Minnesota 39
2007: North Dakota State (1-AA) 27, Minnesota 21 (Revenge! Minnesota also went winless in the Big 10 in 2007)
2009: Minnesota 16, South Dakota State (1-AA) 13 (Another squeaker against a Dakota school)
2010: South Dakota (1-AA) 41, Minnesota 38
2010: Northern Illinois 34, Minnesota 23
2011: New Mexico State 28, Minnesota 21

Perhaps from a competitive standpoint, Minnesota should consider leaving the Big 10 and join the about-to-be-homeless castoffs of the Big 12. Minnesota will try again to crack these pesky Dakota schools in two weeks when they host NDSU again. By the way, does the University of North Dakota feel left out, since Minny has played North Dakota State, South Dakota, and South Dakota State in the last few years? Doesn't Minny want to complete the Dakota superfecta?

Posted by Kevin Beane at 12:59 PM | Comments (1)

September 14, 2011

Serena Williams and a Great Set of Tennis

In 2009, Serena Williams made headlines with an outburst directed at a lines woman. Williams was competing against Kim Clijsters in the semifinals of the U.S. Open when a foot fault was called against. The events that followed are well documented, as are those of Sunday night's incident. This time against Sam Stosur in the U.S. Open final she directed her anger at the chair umpire.

I'm not going into detail about what happened since it's been a topic of much discussion for the last several days, nor am I defending Williams' tirade, which did get rather personal. The thing is that I've talked to a few people and seen various posts on the Internet saying that Williams should be banned or that she should never be allowed to play again. They claim that she is a disgrace and they are right and that's precisely why I'm about to defend her.

Firstly, we all say things in the heat of the moment that we probably shouldn't have said and the same can be said of Williams in this instance, as well as others. Furthermore, I believe the game would be worse off without people losing their cool and going mad at an umpire.

Of course we all watch for the tennis, but tennis, and sports in general, is nothing more than live non-scripted theater. We watch for the emotional ebbs-and-flows and the drama. As a result, when we see someone acting in a way that they shouldn't, our interest piques. It adds a little spice to the proceedings and sports would be a little less enthralling without the "bad men/women."

Williams is "bad" and that's her appeal. Like the gun-wielding cowboy who fights for good, yet shows of evil, she divides the audience. Some will watch to see Williams play great tennis because they admire her ability and want to see her progress, whilst others will watch to see her get her comeuppance and lose. There is no middle ground. You either love her or hate her and people like that are always needed in sport.

That's not to say that she shouldn't have been more severely punished. Given that she was on "probation" from the 2009 incident, a $2,000 fine does seem somewhat pathetic. In the meantime, however, let's just sit back and enjoy the show because when she's on the court, it's about as enthralling as it can get.

Meanwhile, hats off to Novak Djokovic for winning his third major title of the year. With only two losses, he's quite possibly having the best year anyone has ever had and it's certainly the best year I've ever witnessed.

Both Djokovic and Rafael Nadal deserve credit for putting on a great show in the final, particularly the third set. After Djokovic had taken the first two sets, he looked to be coasting towards the title with an early break in the third. At that point, Nadal's fightback began and throughout the third set the tennis was just about as good as it gets. Both men were hitting the ball hard and clean and neither man would yield. In some ways, it would've been more fitting if Djokovic had won the tiebreak and that had been the final set. As it is, the final set was an anti-climax.

The third set, however, was one of the best sets of tennis I've ever seen and definitely the best this year, though the first set between Roger Federer and Djokovic at Roland Garros is a very close second.

It will be interesting to see what happens as we go forward given the dynamic that seems to exist. Djokovic clearly has the beating of Nadal, but Federer looks capable of beating Djokovic, whilst Nadal has the beating of Federer.

Posted by Luke Broadbent at 12:31 PM | Comments (4)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 26

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kyle Busch — Busch finished sixth in the Wonderful Pistachios 400 at Richmond, overcoming two instances of falling a lap down to score his 16th top-10 of the year. Busch will start the Chase atop the standings, tied with nemesis Kevin Harvick, each with four wins.

"It's great to be back on top of the standings," Busch said. "The question is, can I stay there? Now would be a great time for Pedigree to adorn the No. 18 Toyota, while I order it to 'stay.'

"I don't expect Harvick and I to share the top spot for long. As everyone knows, we can't be in the same place for long. I'm sure he's reveling at another chance to 'knock me out.'"

2. Kevin Harvick — Harvick won the race off pit road on the final caution and held off a charging Carl Edwards to win at Richmond. It was Harvick's fourth win of the year, and first since may, and placed him in a tie with Kyle Busch for the top seed in the reset point standings.

"Thanks to my pit crew," Harvick said, "we were able to win this race. This isn't the first time I've had my crew to thank for keeping Edwards off of me.

"It's quite a relief to know that Richard Childress will be running my Nationwide team. That's a burden I can do without, and it just goes to show that it's easier to 'unload' on Richard Childress than Kyle Busch."

3. Jimmie Johnson — The Jimmie Johnson-Kurt Busch feud intensified at Richmond, just in time for the Chase. Johnson was clipped by Kurt Busch and spun on lap 185, and Johnson retaliated on lap 246 after diving into the corner sideways and sending Busch for a smoky spin. Johnson finished 31st, and will start the Chase eighth in the standings, nine points out of first.

"I don't know if Busch wrecked me intentionally," Johnson said. "One could argue that's why I wrecked Busch — because I just had to stop and ask.

"If Busch wants to continue this feud, that's his prerogative. I don't mind. I think I've been pretty patient with Kurt. After all, I haven't slapped him, which is yet another characteristic that separates me from most other drivers. Whether surrounded by Cups or controversy, I'm comfortable in the middle of it."

4. Jeff Gordon — Gordon passed Kevin Harvick for the lead with 22 laps to go, but Paul Menard's spin six laps later brought out the final caution, and Harvick beat Gordon out of the pits. Harvick went on to win, while Gordon finished third and will start the Chase For the Cup three points down to top seeds Harvick and Kyle Busch.

"We gave that one away," Gordon said. "Normally, exchanging '24' for a 'case' of Budweiser would be considered fair. Not this time.

"My car may say 'Drive to End Hunger,' but I'm saying I'm the 'Driver to End Hunger For Five.'"

5. Carl Edwards — Edwards gained some much-needed momentum for the Chase For the Cup with a runner-up finish at Richmond. Edwards chased Kevin Harvick over the final 12 laps after a restart, but couldn't get close enough to make the pass. Edwards will start the Chase nine points down to co-leaders Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch.

"I knew I probably couldn't get close enough to pass Harvick," Edwards said, "but I was hoping to at least pressure him into a mistake. As is well known, my way of getting at Harvick is to make him 'choke.'"

6. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished 12th in the Wonderful Pistachios 400, his first result outside the top 10 since a 35th at New Hampshire. As a wild card Chase qualifier, he'll start the Chase 12 points out of the lead.

"Thanks to NASCAR's screwy wild card rules," Keselowski said, "I get no credit for my three wins. Instead of starting three points off the pace, I'm 12 behind. I don't know what's harder — winning three times, or proving myself twice."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished 23rd at Richmond, one lap down, after a night filled with handling challenges and several scrapes with other cars. By virtue of his two wins this year, Kenseth will start the Chase six points behind co-leaders Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.

"It's certainly not the way we wanted to enter the Chase For the Cup," Kenseth said. "The No. 17 Ollie's Bargain Outlet Ford faced a number of issues on Saturday, but don't 'discount' chances to win the Sprint Cup."

8. Kurt Busch — Busch finished fifth at Richmond, posting his seventh top-5 result of the season. He'll start 9 points off the lead when the Chase For the Cup begins Sunday at Chicagoland.

"As my brother Kyle well knows," Busch said, "it's not where you start, it's how you finish. And I'm 100% committed to finishing … Jimmie Johnson."

9. Ryan Newman — Newman finished eighth at Atlanta, his 13th top-10 result of the year, and will start the Chase alongside Stewart-Haas teammate Tony Stewart, who finished 12th in the standings.

"It's great to have a teammate in the Chase," Newman said, "but Tony knows as well as I that once the Chase starts, it's every man for himself. I'm as well prepared as anyone for that situation — that's one, and likely the only, advantage to teaming with Rusty Wallace for several years."

10. Denny Hamlin — With his Chase-qualification hopes on the line, Hamlin overcame damage sustained in an early accident to finish 9th, locking up a wild card berth in the Chase.

"We certainly don't enter this year's Chase with the momentum we had last year," Hamlin said. "Obviously, this team has regressed, but our offseason overhaul will take place in the same manner as a potential Cup-winning Chase — from the bottom up."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:38 AM | Comments (0)

September 13, 2011

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Novak Djokovic is 64-2 this year, with 10 titles, including three Grand Slams. Incredible year. Congratulations to Djokovic and fellow U.S. Open champ Sam Stosur.

* Week 1 saw eight kickoffs and punts returned for touchdowns, the highest single-week total in NFL history. Hard to argue that moving kickoffs back to the 35 is less exciting.

* Daniel Snyder finally dropped his petty lawsuit against Washington's City Paper. Snyder's childishness and megalomania seem to be without any boundary, but maybe this is a sign of good things to come. If he would just sell the team, football fans could really celebrate.

* Fantasy bust of the week: Sideshow Chad. Tom Brady loves Wes Welker and Deion Branch.

* On Sunday night, Cris Collinsworth said of Michael Vick, "His ability to escape the pocket was just the difference in the game." The final was 31-13, big guy. This wasn't a 21-20 nailbiter. I think the Eagles might have won anyway.

***

With the Ravens getting a big win on Sunday afternoon, and the Falcons getting crushed by Chicago, NBC's Mike Florio revisited the comparison of Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan. He suggested that although Ryan enjoys the superior reputation, their play is basically about equal. This was supported by a graphic showing their stats, effectively even. On TV, though, we have to simplify things, and some important numbers got left out.

Yes, those are almost exactly equal. The same applies to their rate stats.

Not only are these numbers similar, they are shockingly similar. It's almost incredible that you'd have two players whose stats are so much alike. Their rushing stats are also equivalent, a slight edge for Flacco (320 yds, 3 TDs) over Ryan (275 yds, 2 TDs). But wait...

When you look at net yardage — passing plus rushing minus sacks — Ryan is ahead by 305 yards. But I think Florio is basically correct. Ryan had a much better rookie season, and Flacco really has to excel to overcome that first impression. Ryan also plays with better receivers, so his numbers look better. But when you account for the impact of teammates, and maybe add an adjustment for postseason success, which favors Flacco (4-3) over Ryan (0-2), they do come out very close to equal. If you're drafting a fantasy team, I'd stick with Ryan for now, mostly because of Roddy White. On the actual field, there's not much difference.

Now on to the power rankings, with brackets showing each team's preseason rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — Combined with Miami for 906 net passing yards, the highest single-game total in NFL history. The two teams also combined for the second-highest total offense in history, the most in over 60 years. You'd like to see more from the defense, but even without longtime center Dan Koppen — last seen on crutches — this offense is simply on a different level than everyone else in the league. Except maybe...

2. Green Bay Packers [2] — Statement win on opening night; Aaron Rodgers looked amazing, and no defense in the league will have an easy time against this deep receiving corps. It is a bit of a concern, though, that the ground game still seems to be an afterthought, and it's a very legitimate concern that this great defense yielded 34 points, including 419 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a 112.5 passer rating to Drew Brees. After only one game, we can chalk that up to the matchup for now, but most weeks, you can't allow a 64% third down conversion rate and expect to win.

3. Baltimore Ravens [7] — What a beatdown they laid on their biggest rival. The Steelers had 13 possessions in the game: 8 turnovers, 3 three-and-outs, a five-play drive with a punt, and 1 lonely touchdown. Haloti Ngata, Ed Reed, and Terrell Suggs all began the season at all-pro level. Almost as impressive as the defense, though, was an offense that rushed for 170 yards with a 5.5 average — last year's Steelers allowed just 62.8 per game and 3.0 per attempt — and committed no turnovers. Vonta Leach looks like a great pickup at fullback.

4. Philadelphia Eagles [6] — Michael Vick was obviously pleased with his performance against the Rams' defense, describing it as "lights out." He did rush for 98 yards, and looked as amazing as ever running with the ball. As a passer, his 35 attempts yielded 3 sacks, 14 completions, and 18 incompletions, with a blah passer rating of 83.7. Even with the runs, Vick's 265 yards on 45 plays works out to 5.89 per play, which is not even average, much less lights out. Last season, he averaged 6.89, a full yard higher. Flacco's career average is 5.91 per play; Ryan's is 6.04. Vick's athletic ability has never been in question, but his accuracy as a passer remains a potential weak point, and he still gets hit way too often.

5. Houston Texans [10] — Humiliated the Colts, even though they called off the dogs in the second half. The game was 34-0 at the end of the second quarter, which is about as dominant as you can get without running up the score. Ben Tate had a great game in Arian Foster's absence, and Andre Johnson was his usual self. Most impressive, though, may have been the new-look Houston defense, which held the Colts to 7 points, 236 yards, and 1-of-10 on third and fourth down.

6. New Orleans Saints [3] — Brees, as well as he played on Thursday night, was clearly the second-best quarterback on the field. This team has a terrific air attack, but it needs offensive balance with the running game to be competitive at the highest level. The pass rush, minus suspended DE Will Smith, looked pretty weak against Green Bay. Fantasy football players, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem are attractive options until Marques Colston returns to the lineup.

7. San Diego Chargers [4] — Special teams woes continue, allowing a kickoff return TD and suffering a season-ending injury to Pro Bowl kicker Nate Kaeding. Defensive lineman Luis Castillo also suffered a serious injury, a broken leg. San Diego still has a ton of talent, though, and the defense showed up in a big way. Sure, 24-17 doesn't sound like a dominant win, but the Chargers gained more than twice as many yards as Minnesota (407-187) and more than three times as many first downs (31-10).

8. Pittsburgh Steelers [5] — Down 35-7 with less than 2:00 left, why was Ben Roethlisberger still in the game? You're obviously not going to win, and your man has been getting battered. Why risk the health of the QB in that situation? That said, I continue to believe the Steelers do themselves a disservice by leaning so heavily on Big Ben. This team is most successful when it relies on a stifling defense and a solid ground game. Bruce Arians needs to call more run plays.

9. New York Jets [9] — A nice comeback, sparked by a trio of turnovers, doesn't hide the poor state of the offense. The Jets gained only one rushing first down against Dallas, and Mark Sanchez continues to struggle with his consistency. The kid obviously has guts, but his play isn't developing the way other young QBs (like Flacco and Ryan) have shown in recent years. I'd like to see the defense go four quarters playing the way it did in the last 5 or 10 minutes.

10. Chicago Bears [12] — Surprisingly easy win over the Falcons, leading 30-6 after three quarters. QB Jay Cutler, who is consistently inconsistent, and RB Matt Forte, who's had two good seasons and one bad, both played well and put up big numbers. But the most impressive performances came from the defense, which sacked Matt Ryan five times — this from a QB who only took 23 sacks all of last year — and forced three turnovers, including a Brian Urlacher fumble return for a touchdown.

11. Atlanta Falcons [8] — They always play better at home, so the road loss in Chicago isn't cause for panic. Michael Turner had a great game, rushing 10 times for 100 yards and adding 40 more yards receiving. So why did Turner only get 10 carries, and Ryan dropped back 52 times? That's bad play-calling. I keep expecting John Abraham to get old and slow down, but he recorded two sacks against the Bears, and fellow defensive end Kroy Biermann scored on an INT return for the second season in a row. Awfully weak tackling by Sean Weatherspoon on Forte's 56-yard receiving TD.

12. Detroit Lions [17] — The running game remains a question mark, but the defense continues to improve, and the passing game is awash with dynamic young playmakers. Calvin Johnson is a sensation. Sunday's win, though, falls mostly on the defense, which held Tampa Bay to a pair of field goals and consistently provided good field position for an offense that, believe it or not, went 2-for-11 on third downs.

13. Dallas Cowboys [11] — Since the team's inception in 1960, the Cowboys were 241-0-1 when they led by 14 or more in the fourth quarter. Up 24-10 with 12:00 to play, and 24-17 with 1st-and-goal at the three, the Cowboys committed two turnovers and gave up a touchdown on a blocked punt in the last nine minutes. I love Jason Witten, but it sure looked like he could have scored on that long pass that set up the 1st-and-goal. Any receiver knows you slow down when you look behind you, but Witten had his head turned sideways starting at the 25-yard line. If he makes it two or three more yards, the Cowboys win that game.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [15] — Move up after a loss, mostly because it was less horrific than those of the Giants, Chiefs, and Colts. The offense, which looked so good last December, was in very poor form against Detroit. LeGarrette Blount only carried the ball five times, and the team gained only one first down on the ground. The Bucs lost time of possession by 13 minutes.

15. Miami Dolphins [18] — Yeah, they're up three spots from last week, even though they gave up 6,000 yards against New England. Chad Henne played well on Monday night, and the Dolphins' offense showed promise, while the defense simply cannot be as bad as it looked. Like the Bucs, Miami was more impressive in defeat than the Giants, Colts, etc.

16. Washington Redskins [27] — Rex Grossman looked good against the Giants, and the defense is obviously much improved from a year ago, but serious weaknesses remain. Tim Hightower averaged under three yards per carry on Sunday, and the receivers dropped a lot of passes. The defense still is not a great fit for Jim Haslett's 3-4 scheme. Barry Cofield was very effective in New York's 4-3, but he's not a nose tackle. In Week 1, the Giants' David Baas repeatedly handled Cofield, and nose tackles are supposed to draw double teams. Rookie Chris Neild, a seventh-round pick out of West Virginia, looks like a better fit in the middle.

17. New York Giants [13] — Injuries are an issue, but let's focus on one obvious problem: Eli Manning. This weekend, he passed for 268 yards and rushed for a touchdown, but he also lost 28 yards on sacks, threw an interception, didn't throw any touchdowns, and finished with a 70.8 passer rating. Most damningly, the Giants went 1-for-11 on third and fourth downs. Manning has always committed too many turnovers, but he's usually been productive enough to compensate. After a poor finish last year and a slow preseason, his performance has to worry Giants fans.

18. Oakland Raiders [22] — Jason Campbell seems like a good fit for the offense, and Darren McFadden picked up where he left off in 2010. But if Sebastian Janikowski had missed his record-tying 63-yard field goal, this game might have gone to overtime. It was a positive start to the season, but not a dominant win. I realize some calls have to be made, but Jerome Boger's officiating crew sucked a lot of the fun out of this game, calling 25 penalties for 222 yards.

19. Minnesota Vikings [19] — Defense isn't the same without the Williams Wall, who have one more week left on their suspensions. But perhaps the most obvious problem is that the offense was totally one-dimensional in Week 1. Adrian Peterson played well (98 yds, 6.1 avg), but Donovan McNabb had more yards rushing (32) than passing (28), including 2 sacks for 11 yards. It's appropriate for the offense to revolve around Peterson, but you can't just give up on the air attack the way they did in San Diego. Erin Henderson had 6 solo tackles and 3 tackles for a loss, including a sack, against the Chargers.

20. Indianapolis Colts [16] — The team obviously is not as bad as its Week 1 meltdown implied, but now that we know Peyton Manning will miss most or all of the season, are aging stars like Jeff Saturday, Reggie Wayne, and Dwight Freeney enough to keep the Colts in contention? It seems unlikely. This whole offense revolves around Manning, and the defense had a rough outing in Week 1, as well.

21. Kansas City Chiefs [14] — You hope Matt Cassel was affected by his rib injury. The Chiefs went 7-1 at home last year, losing only the Week 17 finale when they already had the division title clinched. Playing a team no one expected much from, Kansas City laid an egg of epic proportions, getting humiliated 41-7. Maybe it was Cassel's rib, or just overconfidence and overlooking an opponent they didn't respect, but if the Chiefs want people to believe that last year was more than just a fluke, they've got to pick things up in a hurry. DB Eric Berry is out for the year with a torn ACL.

22. Jacksonville Jaguars [20] — I still can't believe they cut David Garrard, and Luke McCown's decent showing against Tennessee doesn't change my belief that the team is worse without him. But Maurice Jones-Drew had a nice game, and the Titans got nothing out of their ground game. Jacksonville won time of possession by more than 19 minutes. The Jags travel to New York to face the Jets in Week 2, and I'll be interested to see how the offense holds up in that one. They'll need another big showing from MJD.

23. Buffalo Bills [30] — Strong performances from Ryan Fitzpatrick (4 TD, 113.5 rating) and Fred Jackson (112 yds, 5.6 avg) in the opener. The real credit, though, goes to a defense that held the Chiefs to seven points at home. KC gained just 213 yards and 13 first downs, and Cassel's passer rating was a dismal 64.5. Safety Bryan Scott led the team in tackles, with three for a loss, including one sack. Who misses Donte Whitner?

24. Cincinnati Bengals [26] — It's easy to forget that they won the AFC North two years ago. Carson Palmer was still in town, Cedric Benson rushed for 1,251 yards, and Mike Zimmer's defense kept opponents off-balance. Benson got off to a great start against the Browns (121 yds, 4.8 avg, TD), and the defense looks good. Two out of three ain't bad. Reggie Nelson led the team in tackles (7 solo), adding a sack and two pass deflections.

25. Denver Broncos [24] — The fans gleefully chanting Tim Tebow's name during a TD drive should be sterilized. Kyle Orton is the best option at quarterback. Elvis Dumervil's return to the lineup was short-lived, as he jammed a shoulder in the first quarter and barely played afterwards. The Broncos need him healthy if they're going to be competitive this year. Brian Dawkins, who turns 38 next month, impressed me on Monday night. He led the Broncos in tackles and supplied the most effective pass rush pressure after Dumervil got hurt.

26. St. Louis Rams [21] — Sam Bradford is the most overrated player in the NFL right now. Last season, he was a solidly below-average quarterback (25th in passer rating) who choked in his biggest game. This week, he looked lost against the Eagles, with a 75.4 passer rating and 4 sacks — not including the "rush" on which he fumbled and Philadelphia recovered for a touchdown. I'm not trying to beat up on Bradford, because he's just a second-year player and he's still learning, but his Offensive Rookie of the Year selection was an embarrassment, and this weekend Peter King called him the Rams' "most valuable player by far". That's ridiculous. How about Steven Jackson, or James Laurinaitis, or any number of other players? Bradford was one of several Rams injured in the loss, and this ranking reflects that.

27. Arizona Cardinals [25] — Did a nice job limiting the Panthers' run game, which had to be their plan coming in, but it's not impressive that they allowed over 400 yards and a 110.4 passer rating to rookie Cam Newton. I mean, how do you not realize that Steve Smith (178 yds, 2 TDs) needs to be covered? The pass defense already misses Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Kevin Kolb and Beanie Wells did what Cardinal fans wanted to see, but there's a lot of room for improvement here.

28. San Francisco 49ers [28] — A pair of returns TDs by Ted Ginn clinched their game against Seattle. The defense played well, and obviously the special teams looked good, but the offense wasn't able to do much against a Seahawk defense that last year ranked 27th in yardage and 25th in scoring. San Francisco scored 33 points this weekend, but with only one offensive touchdown — the rest was David Akers and Ginn. The Niners went 1-of-12 on third down conversions.

29. Tennessee Titans [23] — Nine losses in their last 10 regular season games. The Titans punted on six of their first seven drives against Jacksonville; the other was a missed field goal. Barrett Ruud (14 tackles) and Kenny Britt (136 yds, 2 TD) played well on Sunday, but Chris Johnson rushed for just 24 yards (2.9 avg), without making up for it as a receiver (25 yds), and it's hard to imagine this team being competitive if he's not in top form.

30. Seattle Seahawks [29] — The offense was atrocious against San Francisco. New QB Tarvaris Jackson struggled (78.3 rating, 5 sacks), and the run game was virtually non-existent. Special teams coverage, however, is the obvious point of emphasis following a pair of return TDs late in the fourth quarter.

31. Cleveland Browns [31] — D'Qwell Jackson showed up. He recorded 10 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and a forced fumble against the Bengals. But Cincinnati QBs Andy Dalton and Bruce Gradkowski combined for a 99.8 passer rating, and Benson broke a 39-yard touchdown run at the most critical moment in the game. Offensively, Colt McCoy completed under half his passes, and Peyton Hillis rushed for just 57 yards, with a 3.4 average and no scores. A disappointing start for a team hoping to take a step forward in 2011.

32. Carolina Panthers [32] — As if this team needed anything else to go wrong, its best player, LB Jon Beason, will miss the rest of the season with a torn Achilles' tendon. The Panthers have to be pleased with Cam Newton's performance, but on Thursday night, I watched Drew Brees out-gain Aaron Rodgers by 100 yards, because Brees threw 49 passes to Rodgers' 35. This is the same reason Eli Manning throws for so many yards: he passes a lot. Cam Newton threw for 422 yards against the Cardinals, and obviously that's a hell of a debut. But when you play a poor defense — one that traded away its best CB in the offseason and is focused on stopping the run — and drop back 46 times, and nail a 77-yarder on one of them, you're going to throw for a lot of yards. Let's see how Newton does against Green Bay before we declare him the greatest rookie of all time.

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Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:30 PM | Comments (3)

Can the Rays Make the Playoffs?

As baseball winds down and makes its way to the final weeks of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays are a handful of games away from a wild card berth. All season, it's looked as though the Boston Red Sox would cruise to its seventh postseason appearance in nine seasons and the Rays would fall victim to Major League Baseball's absurd rule that there be only eight playoff teams (instead of 10 or 12).

But it's September 12th and the Rays are only 3.5 games away from clinching a playoff spot. It might have seemed too high a mountain to climb at the end of August, but Tampa Bay swept an ailing Boston team this past weekend. Factor in that four more of Tampa Bay's remaining games are against the Red Sox and the Rays clubhouse has reason to believe they can be playing in October.

After all, the Red Sox have lost Josh Beckett, their best pitcher, to an ankle sprain. Since the All-Star Break, Beckett has compiled a better record (7-3), earned a lower ERA (2.49), pitched more innings (62.2) and struck out more batters (67) than any other pitcher for Boston. According to Red Sox manager Terry Francona, he's being rushed back to the mound only a week after spraining his right ankle.

Outside of Beckett, Boston's starting rotation is not performing well as of late. In one of his most recent starts, Andrew Miller gave up 6 runs before the bottom of the second inning. John Lackey has four losses in his last five starts (all of which he gave up 4 runs or more before he was pulled). Tim Wakefield is on 5 straight losses. Jon Lester is the only one doing marginally well and he has to be tired after throwing over 100 pitches in seven of his last eight games.

"At this point you panic," David Ortiz said after Tampa Bay won its third game in a row against Boston. "You've got to panic at this point. Of course you're freaked out."

This certainly doesn't mean Boston will implode because the team has a lineup full of hitters (they're averaging over 5 runs a game), but the Red Sox are a team in descent, whereas the Rays are a team that has seemed to hit its stride.

At the end of July, the Rays stood at a record of just 56-51 and a postseason appearance was just a pipe dream. But in August, the team won 18 of its 28 games, had its highest batting average (.251), scored the most runs (121), and held its opponents to the fewest amount of runs (87). Going into the home stretch, the Rays are ascending, saving their best for last.

A one-horse race in July has turned into a dead sprint between two thoroughbreds in September. That's good news for those of us who enjoy a good wild card race. That's good news for those of us who enjoy a good month of baseball.

Posted by Ryan Day at 2:43 PM | Comments (0)

September 12, 2011

Ten Years Ago

It's been 10 years since the day of September 11th changed the lives of anyone old enough to remember the haunting newscasts that spoke of hijacked planes, explosions, and so many innocent lives lost. Many young carefree American citizens who up to that point felt no need to care about matters as stuffy and formal as politics and world events suddenly had passionate political arguments and couldn't stop watching 24-hour news channels. After all, we had gone from a nation with an outlook about as sunny as San Diego to one that suddenly had very good reason to fear. This was the day that so many things changed, including our sports landscape. And yet still, some things never change.

While the NBA and NHL were in their offseasons, it was baseball and football that were affected most, and while the NFL had just started its season, baseball was in the late stages of the pennant race as it always is in September. The sport of baseball was affected to the greatest degree by this disaster. For six days, the everyday business of baseball was stopped cold, with no games played around the nation. The men in the baseball uniforms we are so passionate about began contemplating the meaning of what they do for a living. We as fans did, as well.

Baseball did its part to honor the victims of the attacks by sewing American flags on jerseys and creating a new tradition by substituting "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" during the seventh inning stretch with formal renditions of "God Bless America" and overall increasing the level of ballpark security and appropriate patriotic pageantry for each game. Speeches in ballparks were made, poems were read. The Mets and Yankees suddenly seemed to have nationwide support, as they now stood for a fallen city. Had the Washington Nationals existed at that time, they too would have surely received similar attention.

For many of us passionate, diehard sports fans, the message learned was not to lose sight of the fact that when our teams fall short or an umpire blows a call, it does not have the magnitude of the loss of life that September 11th did, and that we need to put this into perspective. Sporting events mean little to nothing by comparison. And yet all of this ultimately had the opposite effect.

Ten days after the attacks, the Mets returned to Queens to play the Braves with their faint hopes of winning the NL East hanging in the balance, yet for that one day, it was the least of fans concerns. With all the ceremonies leading up to it, the game had an odd, unique feel. Mike Piazza famously won that game with an eighth inning home run, something he had done frequently for the Mets in his career. Yet this time it meant something different to the people. That home run became a symbol of the concept that we — the Mets, New York City, the country — are going to recover and be okay again, perhaps even stronger than ever. And the fans realized it was ok to cheer for a baseball game again.

In the coming days, the rug would be pulled from under the Mets season in agonizing, bitter fashion thanks to Atlanta's Brian Jordan. The two-sport star hit a 3-run homer to tie the Mets with 2 outs in the ninth on 9/23/01 (just two days after the Piazza HR game) and a solo HR in the 11th to win it. Then, on 9/29/01, with the Mets still clinging to playoff hopes in Atlanta, the Braves rallied from a 5-1 deficit in the ninth. After scoring 3 times, Jordan faced John Franco with the bases loaded and hit a walk off grand slam to officially crush the Mets' playoff hopes. What had started as a symbol of hope gave way to a defeat as agonizing for the team as any before or since. Fans were not taking this any easier.

Meanwhile, the Yankees were becoming a symbol of recovery and escape from the attacks, as well, yet they waited until their obligatory postseason run. The three-time defending world champions managed to survive the early rounds with spectacular flourishes and often by the very skin of their teeth as they captured the imagination. The Derek Jeter "flip" play was born, as well as his first trip diving into the Yankee Stadium stands to catch a ball. A rookie named Alfonso Soriano hit a walk-off home run and the Yankees ousted a 116-win team to get back to a World Series that was loaded with 9/11 sentiments and newfound fears of terrorist targeting.

Each one of these seven games had truly moving pre-game segments or ceremonies meant to honor the tragedies outside of baseball. The highlight of which was President George W. Bush himself throwing a strike to home plate for the ceremonial first pitch. He did this from the actual pitcher's mound, mind you, right after giving a thumbs up to the nation, and daring anyone to attack him at such a visible moment. Say what you will about George W's presidency. For that moment, all Americans could proudly say, "that's our leader."

Before the fourth game, a previously obscure country singer named Lee Greenwood was brought out to sing "God Bless the USA," a patriotic country anthem that had been released in the 1980s. While the song had been largely overlooked in its time, America was now dusting it off and applying a new meaning to it. Lee took the opportunity and belted the hell out of it without lip synching, hitting high notes he never did in the recorded version as if himself inspired and lifted to new heights.

In addition, Game 1 saw a human recreation of the iconic Iwo Jima war photo on the field while Jewel sang the National Anthem. The legend Ray Charles had sung his signature "America the Beautiful" before Game 2 and Ronan Tynen, the Irish Tenor, made his first appearance in Yankee Stadium singing "God Bless America" during Game 4 of this series, as well. This series was also the first to feature the now commonplace military jet flyover during the U.S. national anthem.

Amazingly the intensity and drama of the games themselves managed to match the deep, moving nature of the ceremonies, as the seemingly overmatched Yankees overcame ninth inning deficits in Games 4 and 5 with stunning last-ditch home runs en route to dramatic victories to take the series back to Arizona, and to November, then for the first time ever. The stage of the World Series actually felt grander than it does most other years as it morphed into a masterpiece theater of sports. Heartbroken New Yorkers were rallying around this and rediscovering their rabid, passionate side again. Instead of the games themselves mattering less, they mattered more.

And yet as with the Mets, the Yankees' apparent good fortune had a horrific twist ending in store for them. Despite their 3-2 series lead, they were decimated in Arizona in Game 6 and their 2-1 lead in Game 7 was overcome by RBI hits by Tony Womack and Luis Gonzalez in the ninth inning in spite of a healthy Mariano Rivera being on the mound. It was perhaps the most shocking 2-run rally of all-time that ended the 2001 baseball season. The Diamondbacks had won the Series to end all World Series.

You would think in light of all the other destruction New York had endured, that the end of its baseball season would be taken in stride. It was not. For fans of the Mets and the Yankees, these horrific eliminations hurt worse than they would have in other years as we became more emotionally dependent on our teams in times of great despair. Yet the unforgettable victories on the path to those ultimate defeats left their fans with a sense of bittersweet pride in their teams efforts mixed in with the agony.

While the Mets' September defeats have been largely forgotten by baseball history over the past 10 years, the 2001 World Series is still considered a landmark for so many reasons, some of which explained above. In the decade of World Series that followed, only 2002's between Anaheim and San Fran came close to matching the drama and intensity of the post-9/11 World Series. And even that year's could not match the 2001 series for significance and intrinsic meaning.

In fact, I would go so far as to say the only baseball games that carried comparable meaning and emotional significance to this event on so grand a stage were the LCS in 2003 and 2004. I am talking about the Steve Bartman series, the Aaron Boone series, and the 3-0 comeback by the Red Sox in 2004 over the hated Yankees, culminating with the end of the Bambino's Curse. With apologies to a couple of great Cardinals/Astros LCS, and the White Sox ending their 88-year title drought, everything else in the decade that followed seems like small potatoes by comparison.

Three months later, a Super Bowl played out under similar circumstances, with the respects paid towards America and the 9/11 victims culminating with a moving halftime show from U2 in which Bono revealed on stage that the inner lining of his jacket had the American flag sown in, all while singing a poignantly uplifting rendition of "Where the Streets Have No Name." Fans wondered how could it be this perfect that an underdog team named the Patriots could defeat the mighty Rams on a field goal with no time left to win such an event, thus making it one of the greatest Super Bowls ever played. Not to mention, the Tom Brady as we now know him was created.

Those events — the Piazza home run, the 2001 World Series, and Super Bowl XXXVI — were moments that almost seemed cosmically created to at least comfort or treat the void left from that horrible Tuesday with the burning buildings in the New York skyline. Even the greatest of tragedies could not cure us sports fans from our insanity condition. The fact that this story mentions only the very broadest sporting details of the games being discussed is testament to the fact that you, the reader, most likely remember so many of these games with such vivid detail already. Because they affected you that much. For these games 10 years ago that were supposed to mean nothing to us, meant everything.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 3:20 PM | Comments (0)

Race For the Finals

The final slam of the year has crowned its champion once more, and your average tennis fan breathes a sigh of relief. The season is over. Bring on the Australian Open.

But activity at Melbourne Park is four months away, and hardly a player on tour will spare it a thought. There is still work to be done, still a trophy glittering in the distance which would be the pinnacle of many a career, but for some, that door is already closed for the year.

For the rest, the heat has been turned up a notch. The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals are just around the corner, and spaces are limited. It's a first come, first served basis kind of place.

For those who are unfamiliar with the qualification system, here's how it works: every player attempts to accumulate as many points as they can from January 1st, and by the time November rolls around, the eight players who have gained the most points will compete at the O2 Arena in London.

And what an event it is. With a possible 1500 ranking points at stake for an unbeaten champion, playing against the best players in the world, it is the most prestigious tournament a player can win, behind the four slams.

Trouble is, with the U.S. Open over, there are only two big tournaments left, along with a smattering of other, smaller tournaments, in which to grab as many points as possible. And with only four places still available, the hunt is on.

Shanghai and Paris are next up, and they usually end up being the most interesting Masters 1000 tournaments, because of the large number of upsets. Paris in particular. Since the turn of the century, it has been won by nine different players, and never by a current world No. 1.

Don't get me wrong, there are some big names in there. Today's No. 1, Novak Djokovic won in 2009, Robin Soderling, Nadal's Roland Garros conqueror took the title last year. Former world number 1 Marat Safin took the title three times here. Even so, it's a place primed for upsets.

When it comes down to it, the eight players who consistently performed the best since the start of the year will make the cut. Who those players will be is still in flux. Here's the potential lineup:

1) Novak Djokovic (Qualified)

With such an exceptional record this year, Djokovic qualified early, with the Australian Open, Wimbledon, and U.S. Open titles under his belt, along with a handful of others. Hard to look beyond Nolé for the title to be honest.

2) Rafael Nadal (Qualified)

This year hasn't been Rafa's best, but even so, he took the Roland Garros title for the sixth time, along with a sixth Monte Carlo Masters 1000, and his fifth title in his (relatively speaking) home tournament at Barcelona. He's reached six other finals, but been beaten by Djokovic in all of them. He's definitely going to be a major contender this year.

3) Andy Murray (Qualified)

It's been a rollercoaster year for Murray, but, when it's really mattered, he's hit good form. At the slams this year, he's managed three semifinals (losing all of them to Nadal) and the Australian Open final, losing out to now No. 1 Novak Djokovic. He is also one of two players to beat Novak Djokovic this year. He's performed well at the O2 arena the last couple of years, so expect him to go beyond the round robin stages.

4) Roger Federer (Qualified)

Fourth to qualify in 2011, he won the title at the end of last year, beating Nadal in a nail biting thriller of a final. He reached the French Open final this year, and two other grand slam semis, and is the only man besides Murray to this year to beat Novak Djokovic. He's past his peak now at 30-years-old, but still as dangerous as ever.

5) David Ferrer

A journeyman if ever there was one, Ferrer has been in and around the mix for quite some time now, mainly winning on the clay, and no mug on the hard courts, either. He didn't win a match at his last outing at the O2, but after a good showing at the Australian Open and a number of other tournaments this year, expect him to qualify.

Well, the first five guys were easy enough to place. Consistently done well over a number of years, and their spots are near enough set in stone. It's a tough call who will grab those last three spots though. Here are my predictions:

6) Mardy Fish

I picked Fish a little while ago, and he's since overtaken some big contenders in the race so far, like Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils, and Nicolas Almagro, and the Minnesotan native has been on fire this year. He's been excellent on the hard courts, and he's been challenging the top players in almost every event this year. He's got the determination to get there, and I think it'll be good to see a new face at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals this year.

7) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

I originally picked Del Potro and Thomas Berdych to make their second appearances at the World Tour Finals, but Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has picked up his game for the slams, particularly Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, making the semis and quarters respectively and losing out to Djokovic and Federer, and it's a surprise he hasn't made the year end finale before. His game has been a bit hit-and-miss in the past, but he's really hit his stride, and he's now more of a hit-and-win kind of guy. His explosive game is going to really challenge some of the guys at the O2.

8) Robin Soderling

His 2009 victory over Nadal at Roland Garros will be remembered for years to come, and it was that victory which threw him into the spotlight, and he has flourished ever since. He's made it to the World Tour Finals on two occasions now, and made it to the semis on his first appearance, but failed to progress beyond the round robin last year. Soderling's main problem is that he was ill at the U.S. Open and so failed to pick up any points. It's going to be a bit of a scrabble now, where before it seemed his place was guaranteed. Czech Thomas Berdych may pip him to the post.

These may be my picks for the year-end finale, but there's a long way to go yet, and plenty of great players in the mix, and plenty of fight left in all of them. Keep your eyes peeled. It's going to be a good one.

Posted by Angus Saul at 11:05 AM | Comments (0)

September 8, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 1 (Pt. 2)

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Buffalo @ Kansas City (-6½)

Can the Chiefs duplicate last year's surprise division title? After all, it's the AFC West, where, much like a date with Sebastian Janikowski, anything is possible. The Chiefs, behind first-year coach Todd Haley, won the West with a 10-6 record, then lost in the wild card round to the Ravens.

"This year," Haley said, "the sky's the limit. We just hope the sky isn't falling. Much has been made of Matt Cassel's rib injury suffered in our last preseason game. It's not an issue. Matt will play. Luckily, our offensive line is impregnable, but Matt will wear protection anyway."

In Buffalo, year two of the "Chan Gailey Project" begins in Buffalo, which, if one year is any indication, will be a bigger bomb than the "Manhattan Project." Despite a 4-12 record last year, Gailey was retained by owner Ralph Wilson to lead the team again.

"At 92," said Gailey, "Wilson is the oldest owner in the league, and it shows. He still thinks he hired Champ Bailey last year. But wise acquisitions aren't exactly what the Bills are known for. After all, Shawne Merriman is our starting linebacker. As one would expect, the Bills front office was 'on something' when they made that deal."

The Chiefs offensive line dominates, opening the way for 128 yards on the ground for Jamaal Charles and 278 through the air by Matt Cassel. Merriman, the Bills main pass rush threat, is shut out, and later complains that the K.C. offensive line is a lot like the Canadian border — he "can't get through."

Chiefs win, 34-21.

Atlanta @ Chicago (+3)

The last time we saw Jay Cutler on Soldier Field, he was living his NFC Championship dream vicariously through backup quarterback Caleb Hanie after Cutler injured his left knee. The Bears eventually lost to the Packers, and Cutler faced a firestorm of criticism, from the media and fellow players alike, most questioning his toughness.

"That's something I have to live with," Cutler said, "which was exactly what I said to myself before calling off my engagement to Kristin Cavillari. We just didn't have enough in common. For instance, she never faked it. But she does have a lot in common with Bears fan — they'll never look at me the same again."

After being dismantled by the Packers 48-21 in Atlanta in the divisional round, the Falcons realized their offense was sorely lacking in big-play capability. In hopes of remedying that, Atlanta drafted Alabama wide receiver Julio Jones and Oregon running back Jacquizz Rodgers. The duo should improve the potency of an already-solid offense led by Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Roddy White.

"We expect big things from Jones and Rodgers," Mike Smith said. "Julio is big and physical, and makes a great red zone target. Jacquizz is an elusive, powerful runner who unfortunately seems to have been named after a failed 1970's funk band. I can't speak for his worth as a fantasy player, but his value is off the charts in Scrabble."

The defending NFC North champs don't appreciate being considered underdogs on their home field, and in turn, the Falcons don't take too kindly to only being listed as three-point favorites over a Cutler-quarterbacked team. Luckily, a happy compromise is reached.

Falcons win, 24-21.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay (-1½)

By some accounts, the Lions and Buccaneers are two teams on the verge of greatness. By other, and more reasonable accounts, they are two teams on the verge of goodness. The Lions finished 6-10 last year, and appear ready to contend for a playoff spot, as do the Bucs, who won ten games in 2010.

"The success of our season hinges on the health of quarterback Matthew Stafford," said Jim Schwartz. "If Matthew's shoulder joint remains intact, we have a great chance of dislocating the Bears and/or Packers from playoff teams last year to playoff spectators this year."

Unfortunately for the Bucs, they reside in the NFC South, arguably the NFL's toughest division, which features the Falcons and Saints, both of which made the playoffs last year.

"I concur with Coach Schwartz's statement of the importance of staying healthy," Raheem Morris said. "Of course, dislocated shoulders don't concern us as much. When something pops out of place around here, it's usually the firearm of Aqib Talib."

The Bucs come out firing, taking a 10-0 first quarter lead. But the Lions, behind Stafford and Calvin Johnson Johnson storm back. Ndamukong Suh menaces the Tampa offense, with a bevy a brutal, yet legal, hits that Roger Goodell can't help but take a personal interest in.

Detroit wins, 27-25.

Philadelphia @ St. Louis (+4½)

In a shopping spree that a dim-witted Kardashian could surely appreciate, the Eagles bagged a bevy of free agent in the offseason, including cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, quarterback Vince Young, defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins, and defensive end Jason Babin, among others.

"Don't forget," said Andy Reid, "we also landed Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the Kevin Kolb trade. Cromartie is a second-cousin of the Jets Antonio Cromartie. And you know what that means — good coverage skills run in the family, and Dominique has a buttload of third-cousins.

"Plus, we also signed wide receiver Steve Smith. That's a Steve Smith, not the Steve Smith. And, as has been widely reported, we signed Michael Vick to a $100 million contract extension. Sure, it's a huge risk/reward scenario, but so is running an illegal dog-fighting operation, and look how that turned out for us—a huge reward."

After narrowly missing the playoffs last year, the Rams are on a quest to win the NFC West and make some noise in the postseason.

"So, Michael Vick says there isn't a defense that can be designed to stop him?" said James Lauriniatis. "I think what he meant is there isn't a defense that can be designed to acquit him."

The Eagles brush off an early 9-0 deficit, and pull away for a 26-16 win.

NY Giants @ Washington (+3)

Rex Grossman will start at quarterback for the Redskins after winning the job over John Beck. In July, Grossman predicted Washington would win the NFC East.

"Coach Mike Shanahan told me I bit off more than I could chew," Grossman said. "To that, I simply replied to Shanny, 'Touche.' But don't knock my prognostication. For as long as I can remember, I've always been right ... handed."

In stark contrast to the Redskins unstable quarterback situation, the Giants have the luxury of Eli Manning, who is in his seventh year as New York's starter. Like Grossman, Eli Manning made waves this summer when he boldly stated he felt he was "in the same class" as Tom Brady.

"Peyton won't let me live that one down either," Manning said. "He calls me 'Eli-ar.'

Eli is not in a class with Brady, and he's definitely not in a class with Grossman. Manning throws for two scores, and Grossman tosses two interceptions.

Giants win, 27-16.

Carolina @ Arizona (-7)

The Cardinals landed quarterback Kevin Kolb from Philadelphia, trading cornerback Dominique Rogers-Cromartie and a 2012 second-round pick. Kolb will add some stability to Arizona's quarterback situation, which has been unstable since Kurt Warner's retirement.

"Warner led us to the 'promised' land," Ken Whisenhunt said. "Kolb may, in fact, lead us there, but as of right now, he's only taken us to the 'promissory' land, because we gave up a lot to get him. Hopefully, in this case, payback won't be a bitch.

"It remains to be seen whether we've found our quarterback of the future. I do know this: we have Philadelphia's quarterback of the future. Kurt Warner had his 'come to Jesus' moment. We hope acquiring Kolb is ours."

The Panthers think they've found their own quarterback of the future in Cam Newton, who gives Carolina mobility at the position they have lacked in recent years. New head coach Ron Rivera knows Newton will face some growing pains, but feels the experiences will contribute to Newton's long-term growth.

"Newton will either make fans forget Jake Delhomme," Rivera said, "or remember him fondly. Obviously, he'll face some growing pains, but the Newton's are a resilient clan. Cam faced teething pains as a baby, while his father Cecil recently dealt with some tithing pains. And they both eventually came out smelling like roses."

Expect fireworks in Glendale. Not in the game, mind you, but from the Panthers cheerleaders, two of whom are sure to get frisky after cheering for the Cats in a building that was almost named the "Pink Taco."

Kolb is a hit, passing for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns, one to Larry Fitzgerald. "America's Tweetheart" Darnell Docket sacks Newton twice, then gives a running account of his post-game shower on Twitter.

Arizona wins, 31-13.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-5½)

Jim Harbaugh takes over in San Francisco with the task of turning around the recent fortunes of the 49ers, a task that proved too difficult for Mike Singletary, who was fired in late December. San Fran finished 6-10 last year, remarkably only one game out of Seattle's 7-9 division-winning record, so Harbaugh knows just a little improvement could easily result in a West crown.

"A little improvement?" Harbaugh said. "How about no improvement? We can win this division with a 6-10 record. That's why our motto for the year, with a new regime in mind, is 'The more things change, the more we hope they'll stay the same.'

"We, along with the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals, consider ourselves lucky to play in the NFC West. We concern ourselves only with winning the division; a wild card berth is beneath us. We can only be bothered to compete for a single playoff berth. That's why this division's official motto is 'How the West Was One.'"

The Seahawks became the first team to make the playoffs with a losing record, winning the NFC West with a 7-9 record. If they are to repeat as West champs, they'll have to do so without quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, who signed with the Titans in free agency.

"Matt was gracious in his departure," Pete Carroll said. "He packed his things and said 'Seahawk, out!' Not long after that, I named Tarvaris Jackson the starter. In my days of coaching at USC, naming a starter so early was something I only did when I wanted to trick a recruit into committing to the program. And like any quarterback with high school skills, Tarvaris took the bait."

San Francisco wins, 22-19.

Minnesota @ San Diego (-9)

Donovan McNabb is a Vikings! No, he didn't discover some unknown Norse bloodline perusing Ancestry.com. He simply joined the Vikes as a free agent, handed the starting position vacated when Brett Favre retired.

"There was no mention of air travel involved in convincing McNabb to join us," Leslie Frazier said. "All it took was a phone call, one in which I disguised my voice and said to Donovan, 'Hi. This is Leslie. Care to join me in Minnesota for a boat ride on Lake Minnetonka?'"

The Chargers again enter a new season as the favorites in the always competitive AFC West, where the balance of power shifts as often as Al Davis' blood pressure. Norv Turner has emphasized turnover margin as the key to the Chargers' fortunes.

"Preferably," Turner said, "we'd like our defense to be as efficient as our offense in creating turnovers."

Chargers win, 31-28.

Dallas @ NY Jets (-4½)

Expectations are high in Dallas and New York, and many experts contend there's a strong possibility these two teams could meet in February ... when the Mavericks and Knicks battle, assuming there's an NBA season.

"We'll be playing come February," Rex Ryan said. "This is my third consecutive year of guaranteeing a Super Bowl win for the Jets. Either I'm much too confident, or I don't mind putting a foot in my mouth. Or both.

"But this is the year. We've now got Plaxico Burress, who brings a wealth of Super Bowl experience to the team. Not many people know this, but Plaxico is an avid sky diver. However, I've ordered him to only jump only in tandem, because I don't want him to 'chute' himself."

The Cowboys should challenge for the NFC East title, or at the very least a wildcard spot, barring an injury to Tony Romo.

"Tony got married in May," said Jason Garrett. "It was a beautiful ceremony, one that brought tears to many eyes, or should I say many tears to only two eyes — Jason Witten's. But seriously, this team is as talented as any team I've ever coached, and we'll play our hardest with one common goal in mind—to keep Jerry Jones off our sideline."

It's a barnburner to the end, and even into the extra period, but Nick Folk's 51-yard field goal with 9:55 left in overtime gives the Jets a 27-24 win.

New England @ Miami (+7)

In Miami, the Dolphins could immediately make an impact in the AFC East with an upset victory over the favored Patriots. The 'Fins were a woeful 1-7 at home last year, and as a former waste management consultant in the New jersey garbage industry, Tony Sparano understands the importance of "defending your turf."

"You've got me confused with Tony Soprano," Sparano said. "That's a common mistake. And speaking of 'common mistakes,' we made several at home last year. For example, letting officials decide who recovered a Ben Roethlisberger fumble in the end zone.

"But this is a new year, with new faces. Ricky Williams is out, and Reggie Bush is in. I'm sure Ricky of all people can appreciate the importance of a '40-pound exchange.'"

In New England, the Pats have welcomed newcomers Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. And just recently, Tom Brady said he would welcome Randy Moss back "with open arms" if Moss decided to come out of retirement.

"Ochocinco is the 'clown prince of clown princedom," Brady said. "And I love him for that. But he's no Randy Moss. And I love him for that. Anyone who believed I was sincere when I said I'd welcome Moss back is crazy. Of course, it could just be a nefarious plot concocted by Bill Belichick to drum up interest in Moss. In that case, we'd pick him up, then trade him to the Vikes for a fifth-round pick."

Brady throws for 3 scores, and the Patriots roll, 31-20.

Oakland @ Denver (-3)

The John Fox era began in Denver just minutes after the Panthers fired him in December, when the Broncos jumped at the chance and hired Fox to turn around a team that finished 4-12 last year.

"What a whirlwind it's been," Fox said. "First, we try our best to trade Kyle Orton in order to anoint Tim Tebow our starter. Then, when all is said and done, Orton's our clear starter, and Tebow's third on the depth chart behind Brady Quinn. Amazingly, 'Brady got backup.' Anyway, Orton saw both ends of the job security spectrum — from trade bait to being backed up by Quinn and Tebow. That, my friend, is job security."

Like the Broncos, the Raiders have a new head coach in Hue Jackson, Oakland's offensive coordinator who took over when Tom Cable was fired.

"Hue Jackson?" said running back Darren McFadden. "I loved him as the 'Wolverine.' What? That was 'Hugh Jackman?' Oh well. I think the first thing we asked about Hue was, 'What color is he?' Get it. That's called 'Hue-mor.'"

Broncos win, 27-26.

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Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 3:03 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 25

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson nearly chased down teammate Jeff Gordon at Atlanta, but settled for second after 10 laps of dramatic racing to close Tuesday's rain-delayed race. Johnson has three-straight top-four finishes, and took sole possession of the Sprint Cup points lead with a 21-point cushion over Kyle Busch.

"The weather nearly dictated the outcome," Johnson said. "Had the precipitation continued, another 'J.J.,' J.J. Yeley, would have been the winner. Yeley was praying for more rain. It never came. With a sixth-consecutive Cup title in my sights, I'm praying for more reign."

2. Kyle Busch — Busch was strong at Atlanta early, leading 19 laps, but after making contact with the wall near the midway point, handling issues arose and he never challenged the lead again. He eventually finished 23rd, one lap off the pace, and fell out of a tie for the Sprint Cup points lead. Busch is now second, 21 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"I haven't exactly been dominating in the last two races," Busch said. "History would suggest I'm just gearing up for a disappointing Chase run. This is one instance in which I wish I was like Juan Montoya. Alas, lately my driving doesn't strike fear into anyone."

3. Jeff Gordon — Gordon won for the third time this year, holding off Jimmie Johnson over a tense final 10 laps in the AdvoCare 500 in Hampton, Georgia. The win was Gordon's 85th career triumph, placing him alone in third in the all-time wins list. Gordon moved up one spot to fifth in the point standings, and trails Johnson by 43 points.

"Jimmie and I wore out our tires battling each other," Gordon said. "We were slipping and sliding all over the track. Nonetheless, it was a 'gripping' finish."

4. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski finished sixth at Atlanta, posting his sixth-straight top-10 and fifth consecutive top-five result. He is 11th in the Sprint Cup point standings and has clinched a spot in the Chase.

"I'm really excited," Keselowski said. "I'm in the Chase, and I'll be going up against some of the drivers I've admired, and Carl Edwards."

5. Carl Edwards — Edwards led 14 laps in the AdvoCare 500 on his way to a fifth-place showing, his first top-five result since a fifth at Kentucky on July 9th. He improve one spot to third in the point standings, and now trails Jimmie Johnson by 38.

"As you know," Edwards said, "Fastenal has agreed to sponsor my No. 99 Ford for 17 races next year. Couple that with my recent lucrative contract extension, and I'm 'rolling in dough,' which may explain why I've been so slow lately."

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth looked to be the car to beat in the middle section of Tuesday's AdvoCare 500, but sudden handling problems dampened his run at the front. Still, he finished a solid ninth and is now fourth in the point standings, 39 out of first.

"As has been widely reported," Kenseth said, "I was one of the seven drivers from the 2010 Chase who accepted an invitation to the White House. I met Dale Earnhardt, the 'man in black.' Now, I'll soon be able to say I've met Barrack Obama, the man in 'White.'"

7. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished seventh at Atlanta, his 12th top-10 result of the year. Harvick's day nearly ended in disaster when contact on a lap 135 restart sent him sideways, but he made an incredible save to continue with no damage. He is sixth in the point standings, but with three wins this year, will likely start no worse than third when the Chase For the Cup begins.

"I saved the day," Harvick said. "It remains to be seen whether I can save the season. I haven't sniffed a hint of victory since winning at Charlotte in late May. And that stinks. But let's face it. With me, 'V' isn't for 'victory;' it's for 'vendetta,' against Kyle Busch. But I'll continue on my merry way with little concern. My motto is 'don't worry, be happy.'"

8. Kurt Busch — Busch finished fourth in the AdvoCare 500, posting his sixth top-five finish of the year. He clinched a berth in the Chase For the Cup by virtue of points.

"Hey," Busch said, "that's the first time 'virtue' and 'Kurt Busch' have been used together in a sentence. But I'm just happy to be in the Chase. There's a number of drivers with legitimate chances to win the Cup. I'm happy to do my part to maintain a healthy balance between 'contenders' and 'pretenders.'"

9. Ryan Newman — Newman came home with a lackluster 20th-place finish at Atlanta, but clinched a spot in the Chase For the Cup, joining Kurt Busch and Brad Keselowski as the latest drivers to clinch.

"I'm in," Newman said, "but Tony Stewart has yet to solidify his berth, and likely won't know his fate until the end of Saturday's Richmond race. So, I've clinched, while Tony will be clenching … his sphincter."

10. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin led six laps on his way to an eighth-place finish in the AdvoCare 500, his ninth top-10 result of the year. Hamlin sits 12th in the point standings, and can lock up a Chase berth

"I won at Richmond last September," Hamlin said. "Hopefully, for once this year, I can live up to last year's standards."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:04 PM | Comments (0)

September 7, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 1 (Pt. 1)

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

New Orleans @ Green Bay (-5)

It's not officially football season until Hank Williams, Jr. asks, "Are you ready for some football?" Thanks to the banality of preseason football, the answer to that question is always a resounding "yes." Thursday night's opener features the last two Super Bowl champs, as the Packers host the Saints.

"Indeed," said Aaron Rodgers. "We are ready for some football. I'm healthy, Clay Matthews' hair is conditioned, and the ghost of Brett Favre has been fully exorcised, although even a ghost makes fewer comebacks than Favre. Our goal this year is to defend our title, and we fully intend to stay on top. Unlike Hank, Jr., we won't fall off the mountain."

The Saints ended the 2010 season on a sour note, becoming the first team to lose a playoff game to a team with a losing record. New Orleans fell to the 7-9 Seahawks, abruptly terminating their hopes for a Super Bowl repeat.

"We spent much of the off-season lamenting missed opportunities," Sean Payton said. "80% of those missed opportunities were errant attempts to tackle Marshawn Lynch. Apparently, around here, 'tackling dummies' have names.

"We know most people don't give us much of a chance to beat the Packers at Lambeau. Don't sell us short. When motivated, this team is capable of anything. We'll just have to find something to rally around, whether that be a campfire, Drew Brees' annoying woofing, or the latest tropical depression."

Rodgers throws for 274 yards and 2 scores, narrowly out-dueling Brees, who tosses a late interception to kill a potential game-winning drive.

Green Bay wins, 31-28.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-2½)

In a rematch of last year's classic AFC divisional playoff game, the Ravens host the Steelers in what is arguably the NFL's most heated rivalry. Last year, the Steelers beat the Ravens to advance to the AFC Championship game.

"That loss still eats at us," Ray Lewis said. "But I don't expect the same outcome come Sunday. Just as Ben Roethlisberger said to his new bride, 'Things will be different.' I congratulate Big Ben on his marriage. Frankly, I'm surprised a woman said 'I do' to Big Ben. I'm even more surprised that Ben actually gave a woman a choice."

Speaking of "choices," the Steelers are the choice of many to repeat as the AFC's representative in the Super Bowl. A win in Baltimore would be an important first step toward that goal.

"There's always a lot of trash talk when the Steelers and Ravens meet," Mike Tomlin said. "This game is no exception. Already, players have been insulted on both sides. And that's just taking into account what's come out of James Harrison's mouth. James makes Triumph the Insult Comic Dog sound like a mute. In his interview in Mens Journal magazine, it was 'James Harrison: Uncensored.' After I had a talk with him, it was 'James Harrison: Censured."

The Ravens raise Harrison's hackles when, during player introductions, the public address system plays the Gap Band's "Oops Upside Your Head." Harrison strikes back by casually riding a stretcher driven by a Hines Ward onto the field. A shoving match ensues, and the dugouts empty, resulting in a bitch-clearing brawl.

Order is restored, and after three quarters, the game is tied 17-17. Billy Cundiff gives the Ravens a late 20-17 lead with a 33-yard field goal. But, the Steelers march down the field quickly, and Roethlisberger finds Hines Ward for a 10-yard score. Ward celebrates by walking a straight line on the Ravens goal line.

Pittsburgh wins, 24-20.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (-6½)

The Browns open the season by welcoming their in-state rivals the Bengals to the Dawg Pound, where fans are excited about the possibilities of a team led by second-year quarterback Colt McCoy. McCoy spent a few days in July in Mississippi learning the nuances of the West Coast offense from Brett Favre. Reportedly, Favre evaluated the young Brown's performance and later texted McCoy his grade.

"Unlike Jenn Sterger," McCoy said, "I didn't get a 'D.' I got an 'A.' Favre is all business on the field, but I must say, he knows how to have a good time off it. When I found out I was meeting Favre in Mississippi to train, little did I know I'd also get to run one.

"But what a difference a year makes. This year, I picked the brain of Favre. Last year, I had 'QB Camp" with John Gruden while he picked my brain. In both cases, the brain in question had nothing to hide."

In Cincinnati, the Bengals are a team in transition, a transition, one may suggest, from a 4-12 last year to one even worse this year. Marvin Lewis kissed Chad Ochocinco's ass "goodbye," but Carson Palmer wasn't allowed to escape, as owner Mike Brown failed to acquiesce to Palmer's trade demands. Now the offense will be even more reliant on running back Cedric Benson, who, despite his age (28), is still considered "fresh out of the box."

"That's right," said Marvin Lewis. "Cedric spent five days in jail for a misdemeanor assault charge before being released early for good behavior. I've always said Cedric was a good short 'yard-age' back. In this day and age of text messaging and short Twitter updates, it's good to see a 'complete sentence' out of someone."

McCoy is solid for the Browns, with one passing score, a rush touchdown, and a filthy post-game text message. But Benson keeps the Bengals in it, rushing for two short scores and taking much of the pressure off of quarterback Andy Dalton. In the end, Phil Dawson's game-winning field goal gives the Brown a 23-20 win.

Indianapolis @ Houston (-6)

It's difficult to imagine the Colts being quarterbacked by anyone other than Peyton Manning. Offseason neck surgery has sidetracked Manning's offseason preparations, and it appears that doctors won't clear him to play against the Texans.

"My streak of 208 consecutive starts may be ending," Manning said. "That means Brett Favre's 292-game record will remain intact. But don't despair Colts' fans. The Indy offense will be in capable hands with Kerry Collins behind the wheel, provided he's not drinking. However, I'm not sure who my mere presence on the sideline strikes more fear into — the Texans, or my own team."

The Texans finished 6-10 last year, well behind Indy's 10-6 division-winning record. This year, nothing less than the AFC South crown will suit Gary Kubiak, or the man paying his salary, Bob McNair, as many contend it's a "playoffs or your job" ultimatum for Kubiak.

"I've won 37 games as Texans coach," Kubiak said, "but there's one victory that has eluded me. I've yet to 'win over' McNair.

"Sure, it's a game against the Colts, but it's only the first game of the season. I hesitate to call it a 'big' game, if for no other reason than Houston has never won a big game."

Can the Colts win without Manning? Not as easily as the New York Giants, but it can be done. Anyone can pass on the Houston secondary, so Collins should have success, especially with a number of weapons at his disposal. Unfortunately, no Peyton is as much a detriment to the Colts defense as it is to the Indy offense.

Matt Schaub throws for 301 yards and 3 scores, one to Arian Foster, who is all smiles after the game, and posts his dental X-rays on Twitter to prove it.

Houston wins, 34-30.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (-3)

New Titans head coach Mike Munchak breathed a sigh of relief when running back Chris Johnson signed a contract extension in late August after a long holdout.

"Kerry Collins and Vince Young have found new teams," Munchak said, "and I'd like to wish them 'well' by saying 'good' riddance. In addition, Randy Moss has retired. Finally, an instance of Moss 'quitting' that no one will complain about. But we shouldn't be surprised if Moss makes a comeback at some point this year. He retires much as he played — half-heartedly.

"Johnson will carry this team, but we expect major contributions from Matt Hasselbeck, our prized free agent acquisition. Matt will be asked to do a lot, but not too much. That's why we'll leave the calling of coin tosses to someone else."

Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio enters his ninth season as the Jaguars head coach, and much like fellow AFC South coach Gary Kubiak, anything short of a playoff berth may mean the end of Del Rio's tenure in Jacksonville.

"Tenure?" said Del Rio. "That sounds an awful lot like '10-year,' which is an anniversary I won't be seeing unless this team produces. If we make the playoffs, it will be without quarterback David Garrard, whom we released on Tuesday. Obviously, we wanted to head in different directions — David's heading north, and we're going south.

"But don't discount our quarterbacks. Luke McCown, one-half of the 'Insane McCown Posse,' is serviceable, and here's hoping his capability outweighs his culpability. Waiting in the wings is rookie Blaine Gabbert, who goes by the nickname 'Yo Gabba,' the franchise's quarterback of the future. He's the long-term solution, a solution that comes in a 'can,' my firing."

McCown is KO'd early, and Gabbert soon finds the NFL learning curve is steep, much like Del Rio's impending downfall.

Johnson rushes for a quiet 95 yards, and catches a TD pass from Hasselbeck, who throws for 210 yards.

Tennessee wins, 24-17.

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Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:28 PM | Comments (2)

Bandwagons Derailed at the U.S. Open

One of my favorite activities is to try to find articles or predictions made by tennis experts prior to a tournament and then compare them to the actual results once the tournament takes place. However, that activity would be more fun if those same experts made comments about the accuracy of their pick, take credit for the correct ones, and face the music for the bad ones. The first two happen quite often, change that to almost always, but the latter hardly ever takes place.

This U.S. Open is no exception. For example, you will not hear John McEnroe make a comment on how Ernest Gulbis, his pick to become a top-five player about three years ago, has once again bombed out in the first week of a Slam tournament. Don't get me wrong, it seems that Gulbis is on the right track, having changed coaching staff since the end of Roland Garros, and improving his results in the last several weeks.

Gulbis' showing at the U.S. Open was nothing to write home about — he lost in the second round to Gilles Muller of Luxembourg, whose claim to fame is beating Andy Roddick at the U.S. Open and Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, both in 2005 — but, it was still far more respectable than the all-out horrific display of tennis that took place on court seven of Roland Garros in the first round against Blaz Kavcic. Nevertheless, I find it astonishing that after so many times of going "poof" (read that as the air going out of a supposedly high quality tire!), Gulbis is still looked at as the next big thing by many tennis followers.

Unlike Gulbis, the next three guys mentioned are relatively new on the "wow, there is the next big star!" scene. So they still have some comfort room in terms of time to realize their alleged potential.

Everyone jumped on the Bernard Tomic bandwagon when the young Australian became the youngest player in the history of the game to win a round in the Australian Open in 2009 at the age of 16. Tomic has not fizzled out, either. He reached the second round of the Australian Open again a year later, losing in five sets to Marin Cilic, and in 2011, he took a giant step by reaching the third round of the Australian Open. He followed that in Wimbledon by winning seven matches in a row from the qualifying rounds to the quarterfinals of the main draw, only losing in a close four-set battle to the eventual champion Novak Djokovic.

It is thus understandable that when Tomic was supposed to play the 27th-seeded Marin Cilic in the second round of U.S. Open last week, there were many who picked him to beat Cilic this time around, after having lost to him in the close five-setter in the Australian Open in 2010.

It turned out to be a total bust. The match was over in one hour and 20 minutes; it was a straight sets 6-1, 6-0, 6-2 victory for Cilic. The best parts of the match were the first game of the match that was close, and what Tomic said in the press conference after the match about the result: "the scoreline was insane." This was the second bandwagon that Cilic derailed, more on the first one a bit later.

Next is Grigor Dimitrov of Bulgaria. This is an interesting case, because despite having won both Wimbledon and U.S. Open junior titles in 2008 and being promoted as the next Federer — his style resembles that of Federer — Dimitrov has yet to accomplish anything grandiose in the Slams or big tournaments. The hype itself is not overrated, either. Until 2010, Dimitrov was coached by Peter Lundgren, Federer's ex-coach, who claimed that Dimitrov was better than Federer when the latter was at Dimitrov's age. Now he is coached by Peter McNamara, a much respected ex-player and current coach in the circuit. Yet again, Dimitrov has yet to go beyond the second round of any Slams or a Masters Series Tournament, since that promising year of junior circuit in 2008.

Perhaps more strangely, it is only this year that he is noticed by most tennis authorities, as if he only popped up this year out of nowhere. I got to watch him live in action in a small tournament in Tennessee, USA in 2009, and again a few months ago in Queen's Club ATP tournament in London; there is absolutely no doubt that his game has improved by leaps and bounds, and he is a fantastic player to watch with a big forehand, well-balanced one-handed backhand, and solid fundamentals on everything else. But again, when will the results come before the bandwagon begins to lose some of its steam?

Well, we know it is not happening in this edition of U.S. Open, either. His first round match against Gaël Monfils of France, the seventh seed, was billed to be one of the few intriguing matches of the first round, potentially a breakthrough match for the young Bulgarian player. Monfils won the match in three close but straight sets, and Dimitrov seemed to hit all the wrong shots on the critical points. Unless he has a miraculous fall season, Dimitrov hopefuls will have to wait until 2012 for the evasive breakthrough.

The last promising player who turned into a bust last week was Ryan Harrison. His case is different than Dimitrov, because Harrison did not have an outstanding junior career, never having won a junior Slam, nor ranked in the top five of juniors. However, his improvement has been fairly steady since turning professional, and this year he has played in the main draw of all four Slams, reaching the second round in Wimbledon, where he lost to David Ferrer in five sets. Once again, it setup the stage for this U.S. Open to be perhaps the big tournament of the American's young career so far. His first round opponent, Marin Cilic, had other ideas.

Tomic was not the first bandwagon that Cilic has knocked over (see above). In the first round, Ryan Harrison was his victim. Unlike Tomic, Harrison did not handle the defeat quietly, either. He smashed rackets and balls to the ground, threw fits, yelled at the umpire, and basically behaved out of control throughout the match. Mats Wilander said that he believes Harrison has top-20 potential if he learns to "shape up and behave himself." "Shape up?" Maybe. "Behave himself?" I don't think so. Mats is the ultimate optimist at times, and this is one of those times. Ironically, Harrison is coached by Jose Higueras, one of the mellowest personalities on the Tour, as a coach or as an ex-player back in the '80s.

Going back to my point in the beginning of the article, I wish I had some free time to look up pre-U.S. Open picks by the experts. I am willing to bet that many jumped on the bandwagons of these young and upcoming players. I must admit that I have been on the Dimitrov bandwagon myself and I am finding it hard to get off as of yet. But I am not that far away. At least, there it is: I said it. I don't see the pundits on the media do as much. They have already found their new horses to ride; all of a sudden, you can't hear anything else but footnotes about the young and "finally achieving" Donald Young, or an anecdote about the impressive run of the veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero coming out of their mouths (Ferrero is one set-all against Tipsarevic as I write these lines); two names that they probably considered "soon-to-be-history" for different reasons no more than 10 days ago.

I guess we know that everybody loves a winner, so we should not be surprised. Everybody seems to also drop the talk quickly when the winner turns out to be a bust — have you heard the four "bandwagon" names above mentioned at the U.S. Open since the weekend? Last, but not least, everyone sure has an obsessive inclination to erase from memory their bad picks.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:30 AM | Comments (7)

September 6, 2011

NFL Preseason Power Rankings

The lockout is over, the schedule didn't expand to 18 games, and the real games are about to start. Let's jump right into this. The rankings below are for right now, beginning-of-season strength, and not necessarily a forecast of each team's success over the course of the whole year. However, the brackets show predicted regular-season record, and you'll find postseason predictions at the bottom.

1. New England Patriots [13-3] — Last season, dealing with injuries and a high-profile holdout, the Patriots went 14-2 and outscored their opponents by over 200 points. New England's 65 touchdowns were by far the most in the league (Chargers and Colts, 51), and the fourth-most in history. The team suffered no significant free agent departures, but it did make some major offseason additions, including Shaun Ellis and Albert Haynesworth. They play a nasty schedule, but to the extent anything about the Patriots concerns me, it's age and durability. Will this team be able to perform as well in December and January as it does with fresh legs? Right now, that's a trivial worry. This team is loaded.

2. Green Bay Packers [11-5] — I don't like to pick repeat champs. Why? Because it almost never happens. A 16-game schedule is tough enough on the players' bodies. Playing 19-20 games, with a month less of offseason time to recover, is positively debilitating. Plus, when you win it all, everyone is gunning for you. But the Packers have the kind of firepower to deal with all that. Their defense will look a little different this year, and some of the losses will hurt, but the offense may be even more devastating this time around. Last year, the Packers' running game was a formality. Ryan Grant played one quarter before a season-ending injury, and James Starks didn't emerge until the playoffs. Right now, they're both ready to go. As long as Aaron Rodgers stays healthy, the Packers are the team to beat in the NFC.

3. New Orleans Saints [12-4] — Most years, elite teams get raided during the offseason. Free agency offers the have-nots a chance to catch up to all the haves. I don't know how much of this can be attributed to the lockout, but this offseason doesn't seem to have worked that way. The Saints, like New England, actually seem to have gotten better since the end of last season. Standout DE Will Smith is suspended for the first two games, but the defensive line added Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin and should be very strong anyway. Drew Brees had a down season in 2010 (22 INT), the running backs were in constant flux, and the team was facing all the hardships that come with defending a Super Bowl championship. Last year, the Saints lost their first playoff game and got a long offseason. That could work to their benefit in 2011 — maybe even 2012.

4. San Diego Chargers [12-4] — Last season, the Chargers were devastated by special teams mistakes, holdouts, and injuries, most notably to Antonio Gates. This year, coming off a long offseason and facing a second-place schedule, look for the team to rebound in a big way. This offense is stacked with talent, and the reloading defense was addressed by using the team's first three draft picks on defensive players. Philip Rivers, like Tom Brady and Rodgers and Brees, is one of those players who doesn't need a whole lot of help. But in San Diego, he doesn't have to win by himself. There are a lot of good players on this team, and if it can avoid the lapses and mistakes that sunk the team in 2010, there's no reason it can't contend for a championship. I wrote this last year, too, but I just don't see how anyone else wins the AFC West.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers [11-5] — Basically the same team that made it to Super Bowl XLV, so you have to expect that they'll be pretty good again. This defense is just amazing, across the board, and if young offensive stars like Rashard Mendenhall and Mike Wallace continue to improve, the sky's the limit (provided Ben Roethlisberger can stay healthy and out of trouble). I have a feeling, though — this is my gut, not my head — that they're due for a slip-up this season. Maybe it's just the Super Bowl loser curse, come to rear its ugly head after 19 games, or maybe it's the Ravens taking the next step, or maybe it's all in my imagination. But certainly there's a great deal of talent here, and a no-nonsense coaching staff with a single-minded focus on winning. Until further notice, this remains one of the best teams in the NFL. A forgiving schedule could mitigate whatever hardships lie ahead.

6. Philadelphia Eagles [11-5] — If they wanted to upgrade the pass defense, I'd say they did a fine job. Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie aren't the only additions to help Philadelphia against opposing passers. The Eagles used two of their first three draft choices on DBs, and free agent defensive linemen Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins are impact players. Philadelphia quietly lost some good players, too — most notably safety Quintin Mikell — and it's hard to believe Michael Vick can replicate his performance from last season, or stay healthy for 16 games. But certainly the Eagles look poised to compete at the highest level.

7. Baltimore Ravens [11-5] — They've made the divisional round of the playoffs in four of the last five seasons, so they're obviously doing something right. But some of the players this team has built around have begun slowing down, and some of them aren't around at all any more. There are two dynamic stars, shining lights on both sides of the ball: running back Ray Rice and safety Ed Reed. Last season, the Ravens simply didn't get the ball into Rice's hands often enough. He's a gifted runner, and when he gets into open space as a receiver, Rice is always a threat to score. Reed, when healthy, is perhaps the most dominant defensive player in the NFL, a ballhawk nonpareil. The Ravens can contend if Rice is managed properly, Reed is 100%, and QB Joe Flacco continues to improve.

8. Atlanta Falcons [10-6] — A lot of things broke right in 2010, when the team went 13-3. The Saints had a bit of a down year, the Panthers were a pair of free wins, and they got four games against the mild, mild NFC West. They won most of their close games, and just about everyone stayed healthy. You don't get that kind of luck two years in a row. Are the Falcons a good team? Of course they are. But can they repeat last year's level of success? No. The team will miss offensive lineman Harvey Dahl, who left in free agency.

9. New York Jets [9-7] — Suffered multiple defections to division rivals. Shaun Ellis and James Ihedigbo joined the Patriots. Brad Smith left for Buffalo. Even punter Steve Weatherford, who last year set a record for kicks downed inside the 20-yard line, defected to the regional rival Giants. Can young players like Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene take the next step to compensate for the free agency losses and the dwindling skills of veterans like Derrick Mason (37), Plaxico Burress (34), and LaDainian Tomlinson (32)? The Jets are a fierce team, but it's hard not to see them taking at least a small step backwards this year.

10. Houston Texans [10-6] — The defense has been holding them back, but there's reason to expect major improvements in 2011. Wade Phillips is in town as the new defensive coordinator. DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams are back from injury, and Brian Cushing isn't suspended. Former Bengal Johnathan Joseph upgrades the secondary, and rookies J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed are penciled in as Week 1 starters. If Arian Foster is okay and Peyton Manning is shaky, I see Houston as the team to beat in the AFC South.

11. Dallas Cowboys [9-7] — Parted this offseason with a number of veterans, including Andre Gurode, Marion Barber, Marc Colombo, and Igor Olshansky. If the revamped offensive line holds up and Tony Romo stays on the field — both definite ifs — then the offense figures to be explosive. I'm particularly interested to see what Dez Bryant can do in a full season, and I hope Tashard Choice will finally start getting some touches now that Barber is out of the picture. But I don't think the team has done enough to address its defense, which last season allowed the most points in team history.

12. Chicago Bears [7-9] — Last year, a lot of things broke right for the Bears, and they overcame the 30th-ranked offense in the NFL to finish 11-5 and win the NFC North. You don't get that kind of good fortune two years in a row. Jay Cutler got sacked 52 times last season, by far the most in the NFL (Joe Flacco, 40), and this season, he's either going to start forcing the ball out of his hand and tossing even more INTs than usual, or he's going to get hurt. The defense is getting old, and the new kickoff rules should reduce Devin Hester's impact in the return game. Plus, the Lions and Vikings are going to be better this year, and the Bears open the season with three straight games against playoff teams. They also have to play in London this season.

13. New York Giants [8-8] — Maybe it seems weird to lead with the new punter, but after suffering through a year of Matt Dodge, Weatherford represents a major upgrade for the Giants and their fans. The offensive line, together for what seemed like an eternity, has been shaken up as well. Gone are center Shaun O'Hara and guard Rich Seubert, replaced by former 49er David Baas (a very quick C/G) and third-year player Will Beatty, a bit of a question mark at left tackle. The Giants led the league in turnovers last season. Luck plays a role in such things, so maybe the Giants are due for a turnaround. But I don't trust the defense, and I don't trust Eli Manning.

14. Kansas City Chiefs [8-8] — Even with Tony Moeaki on injured reserve, the receiving corps is coming together. Dwayne Bowe certainly is a weapon, and former Cardinals Jerheme Urban and Steve Breaston give the team solid second options. Add in first-round draft choice Jon Baldwin and Jamaal Charles out of the backfield, and Matt Cassel will have plenty of targets if his ribs are okay. Aside from Charles, though, what I really like about this team is the young, talented defense. The Chiefs are still waiting for Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson to take the next step, but if they ever do — watch out, AFC.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [8-8] — I am very high on Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount, both of whom were fantastic at the end of the 2010 season. But I also expect some regression to the mean from a team that played a cupcake schedule last season. Third-round draft choice Mason Foster is stepping in for MLB Barrett Ruud, and the pass rush is a jumble of question marks: Adrian Clayborn and Da'Quan Bowers are rookies, and Michael Bennett is an undrafted third-year player with two career starts. Tim Crowder had a nice preseason, but he's mostly been a backup over his four NFL seasons. Ronde Barber is 36 now, playing a position that calls for speed. It's hard to have confidence in a defense with so many unknowns. The Bucs lose a home game to Wembley Stadium this year. Forty points seem low as the over/under in their Week 1 matchup with Detroit.

16. Indianapolis Colts [9-7] — Look, obviously the question here is Peyton Manning. If he's healthy, they should probably be regarded as a top-10 team and the favorite in the AFC South. If Kerry Collins starts more than two games, or Peyton never gets fully right, it's hard to see how this team is even above average.

17. Detroit Lions [7-9] — Certainly they showed improvement last season, and there's reason for optimism. But the Lions are one of those teams it's tempting to overrate. They have exciting young players at the high-profile offensive "skill" positions, and a young star on defense in Ndamukong Suh, but many of the problems that have deviled this team over the years are still present. In particular, the defense looks very vulnerable, and if something happens to Calvin Johnson or Suh, this whole thing is going to come crashing down. Fragile QB Matthew Stafford remains an unknown quantity, and if he struggles or gets hurt again, this team is going to disappoint a lot of people. I think the Lions are still a year or two away.

18. Miami Dolphins [7-9] — Making progress, steadily but slowly. The defense may be ready to come together — it's an interesting sleeper in fantasy leagues — but the offense still has a lot to prove. Most obviously, Chad Henne needs to show improvement. It would also help if someone emerges as a secondary receiving threat to take some pressure off Brandon Marshall, and the running game is a huge question mark in the hands of rookie Daniel Thomas and should-be-a-wide-receiver Reggie Bush.

19. Minnesota Vikings [8-8] — They begin the season minus three of their four starting defensive linemen from 2010: Ray Edwards left in free agency, and the Williams Wall is suspended for the first two games. The team also cut Madieu Williams, last season's Walter Payton Man of the Year. Which, I guess you have to do what's best for the team, but what a message to send to players and fans. Donovan McNabb steps in at quarterback, and he can't possibly be as bad as Brett Favre was last year.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars [7-9] — Let's start by admitting something. If David Garrard were white, the team would not have drafted Blaine Gabbert in the first round. Garrard is shockingly underrated, a QB who consistently plays well despite an incredible lack of talent in his receiving corps. Here, which of these two sets of career stats looks better? The numbers are combined passing and rushing statistics (including sacks).

I'd take A, but either way, it's close, right? Player A is Garrard; B is Eli Manning. Why does one of these guys have a rep as a very good QB, and the other as a guy who needs to be replaced? Consider, too, that Manning has played with a very strong supporting cast, and Garrard mostly just with good running backs. Last season, Garrard posted a 90.8 passer rating and accounted for almost twice as many TDs (28) as INTs (15). I'm not accusing the Jaguars organization of racism; I think almost everyone shorts Garrard, and I do believe race plays a role in that. Public opinion, in turn, shapes the team's personnel decisions.

So I think the Jags wasted their first-round draft pick. But they did some nice things to boost the defense in free agency, and the offense should be okay if Maurice Jones-Drew stays healthy. Expect this to be Jack Del Río's last season with the team.

21. St. Louis Rams [8-8] — Made two free agent signings I really liked: right guard Harvey Dahl and strong safety Quintin Mikell, two low-profile impact players. I think the hype has gotten ahead of itself in St. Louis, but the rest of the division is so bad, the Rams probably have to be the early favorite.

22. Oakland Raiders [6-10] — They were moving in the right direction at the end of last season, but the team cleverly managed to undo most of the progress, firing its best coach since Jon Gruden and losing two of its best players (Nnamdi Asomugha and Zach Miller) to free agency. There are still some exciting players on the roster, but too many weak points. Watch for the Raiders to show a disappointing regression in '11.

23. Tennessee Titans [7-9] — Lost eight of their last nine to close last season, and while I think Jeff Fisher mishandled the team in recent years, I'm not impressed early with new coach Mike Munchak. Barrett Ruud steps in for Stephen Tulloch at middle linebacker, which I think is basically a wash, but leading pass rusher Jason Babin also departed in free agency, and that hurts. I worry less about the defense, though; the real question is a new-look offense with Matt Hasselbeck under center. If Hasselbeck gels with his receivers, and the team can keep its collective head on straight, it could really surprise people this season.

24. Denver Broncos [6-10] — Sorely missed Elvis Dumervil returns to the lineup after missing the 2010 season with a chest injury. Longtime Panthers head coach John Fox takes over as HC, and I expect him to steady the boat a bit in Denver. Perhaps the most interesting storyline will be the play of Brandon Lloyd, who last season led the NFL in receiving yards (1,448), but whose career has been marked by inconsistency. I hope the team will commit to Kyle Orton at QB. He looked awfully good for most of last season.

25. Arizona Cardinals [6-10] — Kevin Kolb has to be awfully good to justify trading away Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. It's incredible how poorly Cardinal QBs were able to perform last season with a talent like Larry Fitzgerald to throw to. It's not even Week 1, and the team already has injury issues. I assume Kolb will be an upgrade over last year's horror show, but I don't think he makes enough difference for them to be a contender.

26. Cincinnati Bengals [5-11] — Cut ties with Terrell Owens and Sideshow Chad in a single offseason, which you've got to like. But they also watched Carson Palmer retire at age 31, after just seven full seasons, and now enter 2011 with a rookie QB in a division that includes the Steelers and Ravens. Could be a long year.

27. Washington Redskins [6-10] — I liked their offseason. Oshiomogho Atogwe isn't an elite DB, but he represents a desperately needed upgrade to a secondary that was among the league's worst in 2010. Barry Cofield was a major signing on the defensive line, former Steeler Keyaron Fox and rookie Ryan Kerrigan bolster the linebacking corps, and Sav Rocca gives the team its first good punter since Matt Turk in the '90s. All that said, there's only so far this offense can go. Rex Grossman does not inspire confidence and the running back stable is empty, while aging Santana Moss and injury-rocked Chris Cooley are the only viable receivers. The offensive line can't possibly suffer as many injuries as last season, but that's a point of concern, as well.

28. San Francisco 49ers [6-10] — It is nothing less than stunning that they enter yet another season with Alex Smith as the starting QB. I mean, the guy is entering his seventh season. If he was going to become a good pro player, it would have happened by now. Smith is effective out of the shotgun, and a disaster everywhere else. It's mind-boggling that a team with playoff aspirations doesn't go after someone else. Half the teams in the league have a better QB sitting on the bench. The 49ers picked up former Bills safety Donte Whitner in free agency, which was a nice move, but they also lost two of their best linemen, Baas on offense and Franklin on defense.

29. Seattle Seahawks [5-11] — Parted with leaders on both sides of the ball, releasing Lofa Tatupu and letting Hasselbeck walk in free agency. There are a lot of young players with upside in Seattle, but they need to take the next step if the Seahawks are going to be any good this season.

30. Buffalo Bills [5-11] — Addressed their defense in the offseason, using their first four draft picks on defenders and adding former Packer Nick Barnett in free agency. I actually like this defense a lot, especially the DBs. But the offense is going to be terrible. I have no faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick.

31. Cleveland Browns [5-11] — The offense remains extremely limited, with a second-year QB throwing to a group of lackluster receivers. I want to be optimistic about the Browns, but there's just not a ton of talent on the roster right now. The AFC North has a light schedule this season, but this division remains a brutal place for a rebuilding team.

32. Carolina Panthers [3-13] — The worst team in the league last season, with a good chance to repeat in 2011. I hate their defense, and rookie QB Cam Newton has neither the weapons nor the experience to be successful this season.

Playoff Predictions

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card: PITTSBURGH def. New York Jets, Baltimore def. HOUSTON
Divisional: NEW ENGLAND def. Baltimore, SAN DIEGO def. Pittsburgh
Championship: NEW ENGLAND def. San Diego

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card: PHILADELPHIA def. Dallas, Atlanta def. ST. LOUIS
Divisional: NEW ORLEANS def. Atlanta, GREEN BAY def. Philadelphia
Championship: NEW ORLEANS def. Green Bay

Super Bowl XLVI: New England Patriots def. New Orleans Saints

Sponsor: Bet on NFL Week 1 odds in the Bodog Sportsbook with your instant 10% welcome bonus!

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:04 PM | Comments (0)

Cardinals, Reds Now Left to Look to 2012

Remember a couple of months ago when all the baseball world was cooing over the new hotness that was the Cardinals/Reds rivalry? It was Chris Carpenter-is-a-whiner this, Johnny Cueto-is-a-scumbag-who-should-have-been-banned-from-the-game-for-ending-Jason LaRue's-career that. Reds broadcaster Marty Brennaman took shots at Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan. Cards manager Tony LaRussa fired back. Reds closer Francisco Cordero hit Albert Pujols and pointed angrily at the St. Louis dugout.

Hell, there even shingles jokes by a Cincinnati roofing company, because nothing says baseball rivalry like making fun of somebody else's extremely painful medical malady.

After the Reds swept St. Louis in mid-may to take the NL Central lead, everybody on both sides was bracing for a season-long slugfest that would send the victor into the playoffs and the loser into a winter humiliation.

A couple months later, and the Reds visited St. Louis in the first series of September. The Reds won Friday night, battering Carpenter and the St. Louis pitching staff for 11 runs. The Cards came back behind Jaime Garcia on Saturday to even the series. Then, with the season on the brink for St. Louis, the Reds managed a 3-2 victory in the 10th inning on Sunday to take the Series and leave the Cardinals 9.5 out with 22 games remaining.

And nobody cared.

Milwaukee is running away with the damn thing (or "Damn Thang" in Jason Whitlock parlance), and the fans of Ohio and Missouri were far more interested in college football this weekend than anything to do with baseball.

#thenewrivalry my behind.

So while Reds and Cards finish out the string and get ready to root for whoever plays Milwaukee in the NLDS, the question now is what's next for these two franchises.

For Cincinnati, it's fairly simple. The core of their team is intact for next year in beyond with Jay Bruce signed through 2017, Joey Votto through 2013, Brandon Phillips through next season and Cueto through 2015.

Of course, GM Walt Jocketty still has work to do on the back end of the rotation, some bullpen help, and ditch out on the Jonny Gomes experiment. They should make a point of re-signing catcher Ramon Hernandez, and they'll need to replace Scott Rolen at third (that shoulder isn't getting better), but that's the normal re-tooling a team does between every year.

The Cardinals, however, could be looking at the final days of a 16-year era. Consider:

* La Russa is 66-years-old and on a one-year contract. That, and you never got the sense he's been satisfied with GM John Mozeliak, who took over for Jocketty (who worked with La Russa in Oakland and brought him to St. Louis) after a messy internal power struggle after the 2007 season.

* Duncan is 65-years-old and on long-term leave from the club to be with his wife after she underwent what is being described as major surgery. When you are 65 and something like that happens, it has to at least cross your mind that maybe it's time to stop living the game and turn your full focus to family.

* Albert Pujols is a free agent who, despite a season that could see him fall out of the top five in MVP voting for only the second time in his 10-year career (you read that right), is still perhaps the greatest player to hit free agency in his prime — ever.

* Lance Berkman is a free agent. I had all kinds of bad vibes about the Berkman signing when it went down, and I was 100% wrong. He's been great for the club, and losing him would suck.

* Chris Carpenter is 36-years-old with a $15 million club option for 2012. They have no choice but to pick it up, but the end of the line is coming for the Carp era one way or another in the next few years.

* Adam Wainwright is coming off Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the entire 2011 season. Sure people come back from TJ surgery all the time, but it's also not uncommon for them to take a year after they come back to playing to actually get back to how good they were before they got hurt.

* On top of that, three-time all-star catcher Yadier Molina will be a free agent after next season, the staff will still include Jake Westbrook and Kyle Lohse, there's no established closer (still), no shortstop (Ryan Theriot a catastrophic bust defensively), and the club's biggest bargaining chip, outfielder Colby Rasmus, was given up for Edwin Jackson (free agent) and some bullpen arms for a pennant race that they're not even in. (Don't be fooled by last week's sweep of the Brewers at Busch. They're not coming back.) (#reversejinx #reversejinx)

The best case for St. Louis is they re-sign Pujols, Berkman and Jackson, La Russa and Duncan come back, Molina signs a long-term deal, Wainwright comes back Wainwright, Jason Motte finally matures into the closer, and they finally get somebody who can play shortstop. I'd also like to see them add Mark Buehrle, who is from the area and has always professed a desire to pitch for the Cardinals.

The worst case is Duncan retires, La Russa jumps to the White Sox (where he managerial career began), Pujols goes to Chicago (Cubs or Sox), and Berkman bolts, leaving Matt Holliday all alone on the "I can carry this team for a week by myself" front.

How will things turn out? It all depends on Pujols. If he re-signs, I'm guessing La Russa/Duncan keep it going (or just La Russa if Duncan still decides to hang it up), and Molina definitely re-signs (Molina and Pujols are great friends). I think Berkman would take less to stay, and St. Louis would be more appealing to prospective free agents.

But if Pujols bolts, so does La Russa. And although Mozeliak would theoretically have a ton of money left over to splurge on the rest of the roster (Milwaukee's Prince Fielder perhaps?), there is no way to put a positive spin on losing one of the greatest hitters of all time from your team.

So we end this season right where we began — what's Albert going to do? If he goes, the modern era of Cardinals relevance might just well go with him.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 3:47 PM | Comments (3)

September 5, 2011

Money Well Spent?

After a protracted holdout that spanned most of the preseason, the Tennessee Titans and running back Chris Johnson finally agreed to terms on a new contract last week. The pact gives the Titans use of the NFL's most productive running back of the past few seasons and Johnson, well, at least $30 million.

Johnson was holding out because his original rookie contract grossly underpaid him for his performance. The Titans, presumably, were concerned about the precedent set by upgrading an existing contract.

But here is where these deals never fail to baffle. NFL teams, and MLB and NBA teams for that matter, often mistake past performance for future performance, especially when it comes to passing out giant checks. Chris Johnson of 2008-2010 was worth every penny of his new annualized rate, and Tennessee benefited from that performance for pennies on the new rate's dollar. But 2008 has long since passed; just ask Barack Obama and Research in Motion.

The notion that players "deserve" new contracts is an emotion-fueled shell game. Players play under contracts that they willingly, and usually happily, sign. We may dress up the business relationship with gallant garnishes like passion and chemistry, but what we watch every given Sunday is the execution of a legally binding agreement. Players play, owners pay.

The problem for most players like Johnson is leverage. Most players, and especially running backs, are replaceable parts. Somewhere around Week 4, fantasy players will fight through a waiver claim mosh pit for a previously unheralded back poised to lead the league in rushing or get into the end zone 12 times. The ebb and flow of running backs from obscurity to prominence and back is inevitable.

And yet, teams continue to make large investments in players probably doomed to regress from their superstar performance levels. Why do they keep making this mistake?

The most reasonable explanation is that teams consider factors outside of a pure bang-for-buck. Chris Johnson, and other short shelf-life stars, benefit from the few players whose careers imploded later rather than sooner. Unlike the Pre-Crime unit in Minority Report, NFL fans and teams cannot withdraw their investment in a player before he washes out. A team can look foolish refusing to renegotiate the contract of a player when they can only say his expiration date is vaguely "soon."

Moreover, players can easily win a public relations battle with the team in the eyes of media and fans. Most fans will sympathize with the frustration of feeling underpaid, especially when a much richer organization is the one determining the size of the paycheck. This is only exaggerated for players who figure prominently in fantasy football, the area of sports where fans are most comfortable with the cold reality of numbers. Chris Johnson wanted to be paid much better? Considering he should have been drafted in the top five of every fantasy draft this summer, few fans would think he was off base.

And this is why, value be damned, NFL teams mostly ignore the risks and invest at high burn-rate positions. (New England's ever-rotating backfield committee is the best example of a team making value-first personnel decisions.) Consider how the Chris Johnson experience would have gone for Tennessee had they refused to renegotiate.

Johnson would have held out long into the season, knowing that he would have little future credibility if he tucked his tail between his legs and played under his old deal. This, of course, assumes that he could afford to miss the game checks and not experience a crush on his standard of living.

The Titans would have shopped arguably the top back in the league for trade offers. Because it became clear that the only way Johnson would return to play was at a richer rate, other teams around the league would know that Johnson had no value to the Titans under his current deal.

The dispute only would have been resolved by Tennessee trading Johnson — a scenario in which teams rarely recover full value anymore — or by allowing him to sit and litigating. In both outcomes, the Titans would have undergone months of criticism from media, fans, and worst of all, players, questioning why the team would not just pay such a dynamic star the market rate. Privately, Tennessee would become known as a place where players are just numbers and performances. Do you think that might matter when undrafted rookies and free agents decide where they want to play?

Interestingly, baseball teams have figured this dilemma out, albeit under very different pressures. With the growing budget gaps between teams, baseball executives have developed a strategy for players they do not want to pay at market rate (though in this case, the reluctance is because the teams cannot afford to pay any players that market rate, as opposed to the NFL, where it is a calculation of production during that contract). Baseball teams simply trade these players for prospects as it becomes apparent that they will not be able to retain them beyond their current contract.

So what would have been the optimal move for Tennessee? By the time Chris Johnson was holding out, it was too late. To continue the baseball parallel, Johnson was essentially already a free agent, as he was not going to play again at the rate of his previous contract. Knowing that Johnson would one day command far more money than they should pay a running back, the Titans should have a) worked on an extension at a more tolerable rate earlier on or, b) traded him.

You might say this sounds like a volatile strategy — and you would be right. But so is what the Titans have chosen. For each of the next four years, the Titans will effectively pay Johnson at least $7.5 million. They deserve credit for not considering even longer terms, but still, how likely is it Johnson will be their starting running back on opening day of the 2014 season? In any scenario where the timeframe of Johnson's contribution is reduced, the annualized rate increases and the Titans invest even more in a player that can be mostly replaced for loose change. There is a decent probability that the Titans will see the same turnover in their backfield with their chosen strategy as they would with mine.

Tennessee's strategy just costs much, much more money.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 2:55 PM | Comments (2)

The Pest Nobody Knows

Without saying a word in the ninth inning of an otherwise unmemorable game, the left fielder of the Yankees spoke volumes about who and what he is. With two outs in a hopeless contest destined to be lost by 6 runs, Brett Gardner refused to die.

Down to his last strike, he took a changeup wide for a 2-2 count. Pitch five of the at-bat was an 83 mph slider fouled off. Pitch six was a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s also fouled off. The next offering was a 93 mph heater off the plate for a ball. With the count full, more heat and another foul ball.

Rearing back for extra velocity, the pitcher delivered his ninth pitch of the AB. Making contact, Gardner punched a slow roller in the hole between first and second. Breaking from the plate as if running from the bulls in Pamplona, he sprinted toward first base. With batting helmet flying and a yard to go, he morphed into an undersized Superman launching himself at the bag. Skidding into foul territory, chalk flying up and in a uniform now suitably filthy for a Maytag moment, the pest nobody knows was safe.

There comes a time when a difference-making competitor is so noticeable that even if one knows little about sports, such ability is obvious. And there comes a time when followers of a team first realize that a young and unheralded player is a real deal keeper. For casual observers who may have been watching and for Yankee fans who were paying attention, July 15, 2011 was the time and Brett Gardner was the do-anything-to-win athlete.

At five-foot 10 inches and 185 pounds, it's easy to undervalue and overlook Brett Gardner. In uniform, it would be difficult to envision him as a weekend warrior accountant, let alone a professional baseball player. For Gardner, that "not big enough, not good enough" perception is nothing new. Yet watching him every game, it is hard to ignore his value as expressed by far more than numbers. And that value of leadership, unrelenting hustle, instincts for the game, and "bringing it" every play in every game has been evident well before donning pinstripes.

Not highly recruited out of high school, his true grit determination and can-do confidence so evident as a major leaguer was fully displayed in a 2001 walk-on tryout for the College of Charleston baseball team. Not hearing from the coach after the tryout, Gardner showed up uninvited the next day for the first official practice. When asked why he was there, he self-assuredly responded that he knew he could play at the highest collegiate level. And he was right.

Becoming a three-year starter, Gardner's .447 average in 2005 was third in the nation and no Division I baseball player had more than his 122 hits. And after his junior year, he was drafted in the third round to play for the New York Yankees.

Invited to spring training after just 45 class AAA games in 2007, Baseball America ranked Gardner as the Yankees' fastest minor leaguer, as having the best plate discipline, and as the 12th-best prospect in their minor league system. Never lacking confidence and without a single major league at-bat, when asked if he envisioned himself as one day starting in center field for the team whose legacy includes Joe DiMaggio and Micky Mantle, Gardner responded without hesitation: "absolutely."

Much as a superficial glance at Brett Gardner belies his ability and worth, casually analyzing his career statistics shortchanges him, as well. Since his first major league at-bat, he's been a career .267 hitter, has hit only 14 home runs, and has driven in slightly over 100 runs. Yet looking deeper into Gardner's numbers, it is clear why he is one player Yankee fans love and opponents love to hate.

A thorough examination of Gardner's less obvious statistics validates what "eyeball analysis" has always indicated. The fact is No. 11 with the no-quit motor does all the little things needed to win. In 2010, while seeing more pitches per at-bat than any other American League player, Gardner made contact on 93% of his swings, third best in the junior circuit.

In the American League, "the nuisance" has consistently been in the top 20 in walks per plate appearance, is currently eighth in pitches per at bat, and is tied for the league lead in stolen bases. Defensively, Gardner is second among AL left fielders in fielding percentage, second in assists, and first in "range factor," which is the total of putouts and assists per nine innings.

While it is easy to focus on superstars, every team needs players who unspectacularly go about their business until in a crucial situation a base must be stolen, a catch must be made, or a count must be worked. These are the often unnoticed and unappreciated "glue guys" without which few teams can win championships.

On a team of all-stars and Hall of Famers in waiting, one such "glue guy" emerged during spring training in 2008 when Yankee GM Brian Cashman said a young rather unimpressive-looking outfielder with "old school" socks and a no chance of making it 91 on his uniform was opening up a lot of eyes. Years later, the pest nobody knows still is.

Posted by Neil Bright at 1:34 PM | Comments (3)

September 2, 2011

Sports Q&A: How to Spend $100 Million

The Philadelphia Eagles signed Michael Vick to a six-year, $100 million contract extension with approximately $40 million guaranteed. Is this a wise deal for the Eagles, and what else can $100 million buy?

Ask Andy Reid or anyone in the Philly front office and they'll tell you it is money well spent. Ask any of Vick's numerous creditors and they'll tell you it's money already spent. Vick's not the only one set to collect on this deal. Vick was in debt; now he's indebted to the Eagles for their $100 million show of faith.

Vick became the first player to receive two contracts of $100 million or more. The first came in 2004, when he signed an eight-year, $130 million contract with the Falcons. And everyone knows how that ended — with the biggest case of buyer's remorse in history. Regardless of what happens, this will be the last $100 million contract offered to Vick.

But the Eagles are investing in a different person, one who's learned from his mistakes, and now, one who's earned from his mistakes. Many will argue that Vick, because of his criminal past, does not deserve such a lucrative contract. But this is professional athletics, in which players, more often than not, get more than they deserve, except when it comes to punishment. However, Vick did serve the time mandated by the courts, and had a 2010 season that would warrant such a contract, if those numbers could be equaled or surpassed. That is really what the Eagles are gambling on. Not the chance that Vick resorts to his criminal past, but the chance that he isn't the player who threw for 21 touchdowns and rushed for nine more.

$100 million is a Shih Tzu-load of money. And Vick didn't even have to beg for it. The Eagles were happy to roll over and hand Vick an offer that makes him the third-highest-paid player behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. That's a lot to live up to, especially now for Brady and Manning, who will now want to prove that Vick is not worth that money as much as Vick wants to prove he is.

So just what else can $100 million buy?

* $100 million would pay for 62.5 seasons of Vick's services at his 2009 contract rate.

* $100 million would cover 19 seasons at Vick's 2010 contract rate.

* $100 million could buy 12,500 Vince Lombardi Trophies, and (the Eagles hope) one Super Bowl championship.

* $100 million could buy 1,010,101 downloads of Bob Marley's "Redemption Song."

* $100 million would have bought 4,167 Tim Tebow jerseys last year; this year, you could get 12,500.

* $100 million could place 500,000 $200 bounties on the head of former Dallas kicker Luis Zendejas.

* $100 million could buy you your own personal PETA protest.

* $100 million would cover 285,714,286 hours of prison labor at 35 cents per hour.

* $100 million would reduce the federal deficit by .007874%.

* $100 million is good for 4,000 minimum bets in an illegal poker game attended by Alex Rodriguez.

* $100 million would pay for approximately 77 two-hour chartered cruises on Lake Minnetonka and the 40 prostitutes aboard working at $100 per hour.

* With $100 million, Pacman Jones could "make it rain" at a Las Vegas strip club for three hours, 20 minutes, assuming 5,000 one-dollar bills raining per minute.

* $100 million would cover 345 improper $290,000 gifts to Reggie Bush.

* $100 million will buy you relatives you didn't even know you had.

* $100 million would pay for 1,000 $100,000 fines charged to a team whose assistant coach trips opposing players on the sideline.

* $100 million could buy 6% of the Dallas Cowboys, and possibly all of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

* $100 million can buy time in the DeSean Jackson contract re-negotiations talks.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:58 PM | Comments (0)

September 1, 2011

Taking the Fun Out of Football

About 30 miles from my hometown of Akron, Ohio is a small town called Louisville (population 9,186). Their high school football team, the Louisville Leopards, are part of the Northeastern Buckeye Conference, which was part of my beat on The Suburbanite, my first paid sportswriter job.

It had been a very rough week for the high school going into their game against Akron's Walsh Jesuit last Friday. A classmate, Dominic Wilgus, had been killed in a car accident the Monday prior to the game.

One of the pallbearers at Wilgus's funeral was Alex Schooley, a wide receiver for the Leopards. A moment of silence was observed before the game, their season opener. Players were crying in the coach's office, according to Louisville head coach John DeMarco. Indeed, the funeral was held the morning of the game.

So how fitting is it that Schooley was the one who caught a touchdown pass with 1:15 remaining to give the Leopards the lead? Is that not the storybook happy ending we all root for?

But that wasn't the ending, and the ending wasn't happy for anyone except Walsh and their fans.

You see, Schooley and a couple teammates pointed skyward during the touchdown celebration to honor their classmate. Big mistake. The referee flagged them for excessive celebration, marked off a 15-yard penalty on the ensuing kickoff, which significantly shortened the field for Walsh en route to their game-winning field goal.

I know what your thinking: what a horrific, disgusting, self-centered act by the players to point to the sky like that. Thank God that karma went on to bite 'em in the ass, eh?

Jokes aside, take a look at the video. Would you consider this "excessive celebration" even not knowing about the tragic backstory?

The ref reportedly did not know. So what? For one thing, how many times have you seen a player pointing to the sky after scoring a touchdown, hitting a home run, or whatever? I've seen it a lot, and I've always assumed, always, that it was a gesture to a loved one who passed on. Am I crazy? Isn't that why you do that? Every time?

Secondly, I am at my wits' end at the crackdown on enthusiasm in sports in general and football in particular. As I've said in this column before, don't you want the players on your team to care enough to be elated after leading their team to, if not victory, at least points? We bash, bash, bash athletes at every turn on the professional, collegiate, and even high school level. We demand that they be perfect citizens and perfect teammates. Woe betide that lady or gentleman who says or does the slightest thing indicating that their life isn't completely dedicated to delivering the team you spend your hard-earned dollars to see.

But that's still not enough! As much as you, the hypothetical fan, go berserk when your team scores the crucial touchdown, you expect them to react like eunuch choirboys when they do something good. It's a no-win situation for the players, and I'm tired of it.

It gets worse. This year, the NCAA is enacting a new rule: If you are deemed to be celebrating en route to the end zone, it's now a spot foul, meaning the touchdown will be waved off. It doesn't have to be a taunting celebration either — things like high-stepping into the end zone while you are in the clear are fair game. Can't wait for the first touchdown to be rescinded thanks to this new rule. I have to think it will occur this very Saturday, Week 1, and it will be all over the news.

It's a ridiculous rule, and its passage is rooted in the contempt the rule-makers have for players. Celebrations, the ones that don't involve taunting opponents, are inherently good, positive things. Chad Ochocinco's legendary celebrations, for which he was fined again and again and again by the NFL, were unfailingly good-natured, silly, and humorous. Far from penalizing this sort of triumphant enthusiasm, we should be encouraging it.

But, no. Instead, we conflate these celebrations with a lack of humility, which is bull. Yes, I understand that OMG, THESE GUYS ARE RICH AND FAMOUS FOR PLAYING A KID'S GAME, THEY SHOULD LICK EVERY FAN'S SHOES IN GRATITUDE!, but as events in Ohio proved last week, we don't even care to differentiate anymore between an elaborate choreographed touchdown routine and a small town player's common, understated tribute to a comrade. Dominic Wilgus would be so proud.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 12:24 PM | Comments (2)

Why a Pitcher Should Never Win the MVP

Justin Verlander has ignited the great baseball debate of whether pitchers should win the Most Valuable Player award. Major League Baseball's refusal to define MVP with statistics like the Triple Crown helps fuel the debate. Players, fans, and the media are left to ponder what MVP means and whether pitchers should be considered in the conversation.

Pitchers should absolutely be considered in the conversation as they are "players" and the award has the word "player" in it and not hitter/everyday player. The question of what "valuable"' means is where the debate begins and where the topic goes down the rabbit hole. Pitchers are valuable and on some teams they are the best player, but a single pitcher is rarely the most valuable player in an entire league.

There are many arguments for Verlander and pitchers to win the MVP and indeed pitchers have won the MVP in the past, here are some of the most common arguments, their counterpoints, and issues to ponder.

Verlander has been involved in more plate appearances than a hitter.

It is argued that Verlander has been involved in 800+ plate appearances and no batter has more than 600+ plate appearances. The two numbers are not comparable. Although the words "plate appearances" are used, pitching a plate appearance and hitting during a plate appearance are two completely different situations. They are polar opposites of a transaction and each person involved is trying for a completely different outcome. One is on defense and the other is on offense.

There is no debate that Verlander is involved in the plate appearance, but so are the other players on the field. So if Miguel Cabrera is on the field when Verlander pitches, does he get credit for the opposing hitter's plate appearance? Cabrera could be involved in the play and was on the defensive side of the plate appearance like Verlander was.

If a hitter is given credit for his 600 plate appearances and the 800+ plate appearances he appears on defense, then would he would have a total of 1,400+ plate appearances? Defense is, after all, a part of the game, isn't it? Granted, the ball is in the pitcher's hands at the start of every play, but once it leaves the pitcher, then the hitter and fielders (which includes the pitcher) have control of the rest of the play. The argument of plate appearances is essentially nonsense. Pitchers are a part of a defensive team when a hitter makes a plate appearance. The defensive team is present during a hitter's plate appearance. Either they all get credit or none of them should get credit for a plate appearance.

Everyday players play offense and defense and are judged by both.

The best everyday players are five tool players. Pitchers rarely get judged on their fielding and almost never on their hitting. There are great fielding pitchers, but rarely is fielding a measure of a pitcher's greatness.

How many runs are saved and wins delivered to a pitcher by an excellent defense? Defense is quickly becoming to the game what steroids were to the game in the 1990's — a must if players and teams are to succeed. Everyday players are being held to a higher standard in terms of their defense. Defense doesn't exactly hurt a pitcher's cause. A perfect 27-strikeout game is the best way for a pitcher to prove he had total control of the game and did not need any other player on the field.

An everyday player is also dependent on the other players, but it is the pitcher who is generally seen as performing alone. Each player on the team is dependent on one another and a pitcher's performance can be greatly enhanced by not only the runs produced by his teammates, but by his team's fielding abilities.

Additionally, the issue of how well a pitcher hits can't be broached because of the designated hitter rule in the American League. Surely, MVP candidates should be judged on multiple areas of their game and not just one area.

Who is worth more wins to a team?

Pitchers have the win as a statistic and the best that everyday players can do is the statistic of win over replacement or for a stat geek to concoct a player's value to a team during a win. It may be a more simple exercise to ask the question: If you could take one player over the course of a season to add to your team, would you take Willie Mays, Babe Ruth, or Mickey Mantle in their primes or would you take Walter Johnson, Cy Young, or Bob Gibson in their primes? The question isn't who would rather have in the game if it was one game to save your life, but whom would you want for 162 games in 2011?

Would you want the greatest position player or the greatest pitcher? Would your team get more wins with Willie Mays playing defense and hitting the ball over 162 games or Walter Johnson pitching every fifth day and on a 100-pitch count? Walter Johnson would most likely get 20-25 wins easily, but Mays is an everyday threat that would make a lineup and defense better. If rotations were shorter and there were no pitch counts, Johnson today could be worth more than Mays.

When the greatest players are reviewed in baseball history, at the top of the lists are generally more everyday players than pitchers.

Pitch counts and five-man rotations further dilute a pitcher's value.

Starting pitchers are in roughly 35 games; everyday players are in up to 155 games. Today's pitchers generally do not go over 100 pitches. Verlander often goes past 115, and up to 8 innings, but he is still not playing entire games due to pitch counts. Also, he is one of the few pitchers who goes nearly 8 innings. Many pitchers today go 6 and let the bullpen finish the game.

Hitters are told to go out and play the field and hit the ball for 9 innings. What if there was a limit to how many defensive plays a shortstop could play? After all, he has to put a lot of torque on his arm to throw to first and what about an outfielder that has too many throws to home or the cut-off man? Pitchers' arms are saved, but hitters are told to go out and hit and field. What if hitters were only allowed so many swings in a game or allowed to only see so many pitches? Don't their arms get tired, too? Hitters are swinging and fielding for 9 innings. Pitch counts 20 years ago also sounded crazy, but today it is accepted that pitchers can't go more than 100 pitches and not unless they have five days rest.

When a batter is hit, they are told to take one for the team, dust it off, and take first. A starting pitcher is told after 100 pitches no matter how good they feel that it may be time to take a shower.

Number of plays should make a difference.

The argument of whether a pitcher should win the award for many comes down to a combination of the above arguments wrapped up in the question: how much is a baseball player on the field? It may be better to ask, how many plays is a player involved in over the course of a season?

Pitchers are in roughly 35 games and everyday players can get 155 games in over a season. It is argued with fewer plays the pitcher must perform at an even higher level. Less plays puts more pressure on a pitcher during his plays, and leaves more room for error for an everyday player due to the sheer number of plays. An everyday player can hide several bad plays over the course of a season, whereas a pitcher does not have as much room for error.

Perhaps a minimum number of plays should be discussed with regards to the MVP award. There is a minimum number of plate appearances for hitting awards and minimum number of starts for the Cy Young award. If there were an established minimum number of plays for the MVP award it would help the discussion. A play would be designated as a pitch, plate appearance, or action in the field (a catcher's throw to second on a steal attempt or center fielder throwing to the infield or man stealing a base are examples). If a player is on the field of play when a defined play happens, then the player gets credit for the play.

When the actual number of plays is added up for each player, it would be clear that an everyday player is "playing" significantly more than a pitcher. After all, each play a pitcher is in the everyday player is generally on the field with the pitcher (except for the DH). After adding up the number of plays, a percentage should be established as to a minimum of the number of plays a player must be on the field to qualify for the MVP.

Like a hitter who hits .400 in April, May, and June, but then was injured and doesn't play in July, August, and September isn't eligible for the batting crown, pitchers would probably not be eligible for the MVP. Pitchers are most likely not involved in half of the plays everyday players participate in over the course of a season, just as the .400 hitter doesn't play half of the season.

Pitchers are incredibly valuable to baseball teams. The question as to whether they are the most valuable in their leagues will continue to be debated. A simple answer might be to look at just how much players are on the field in terms of sheer number of plays.

Posted by Vito Curcuru at 11:19 AM | Comments (0)