My colleague Neil Bright recently wrote an article for this site with a very strange premise: Eli Manning is underrated. With all due respect to Neil, this is absurd. Year-in, year-out, Eli is one of the most overrated players in the NFL.
He is one of the most famous and widely-praised QBs of the last decade. He made the Pro Bowl in 2008; I remember people on TV saying that year that he was better than Peyton. It actually seemed like a legitimate argument to some people. Even today, every time Eli has a half-decent game, the media declares that he has turned the corner and should be regarded as an elite quarterback, which is nonsense.
Eli is a solidly average quarterback. He is not top-10, and never has been, but he probably sneaks into the top 16 most years. Pro-Football-Reference.com keeps statistics comparing a player's performance in certain stats to the league average that season. Anything below 100 is worse than average, above 100 is better. By the numbers, Eli is a very average QB:
Completion Percentage: 91
Yards Per Attempt: 98
Touchdown Percentage: 107
Interception Percentage: 95
Sack Percentage: 110
All of those numbers are pretty close to 100. The guy is an average quarterback. For the sake of comparison, here are some other QBs:
Peyton Manning: 119, 114, 118, 106, 123
David Garrard: 104, 103, 98, 111, 92
Jake Delhomme: 97, 105, 103, 94, 106
Eli Manning: 91, 98, 107, 95, 110
Jason Campbell: 100, 96, 93, 110, 94
Tarvaris Jackson: 92, 92, 99, 89, 91
If we weight all the categories equally, Eli comes in about the same as Delhomme or Campbell, and no one pretends those guys are top-10 QBs. Please understand, I'm not saying that Eli is a bad quarterback. An average QB is actually a valuable commodity in the NFL. There are about a dozen teams that would love to trade their starter for the younger Manning. But with as much hype as this guy gets, he's hardly underrated.
However, I hear some of you saying, the numbers above are career figures. Maybe Eli has improved over time. Below are his numbers last season.
Completion Percentage: 107
Yards Per Attempt: 108
Touchdown Percentage: 118
Interception Percentage: 79
Sack Percentage: 125
Indeed, those are better than his career stats, but the number that jumps out is his 79 Int%+. Eli has 32 multi-interception games in his career. Since his rookie season of 2004, only Brett Favre has more. Even famously careless QBs like Delhomme (22), Jay Cutler (20), Jon Kitna (19), and Rex Grossman (10) can't touch Eli in this category. Last season alone, Manning had four games with at least 3 interceptions. Overall INT leaders, from 2004-present:
1. Brett Favre, 127
2. Eli Manning, 113
3. Drew Brees, 101
4. Carson Palmer, 100
5. Matt Hasselbeck, 95
It's basically Favre and Manning, then everyone else. Eli has more picks since '04 than Derek Anderson and Alex Smith combined (108), or all the QBs drafted in the first round in '02 (David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Patrick Ramsey, 103), or all the Kyles in NFL history (Boller, Orton, 1980s backup Kyle Mackey, and half a dozen non-quarterbacks, 96), or a thousand other weird combinations.
Neil pointed out in his column that Eli's interception total spiked last season — he became one of only three active players to throw at least 25 picks in a season — but it was always in the cards that Eli was going to have a season like that. Chance plays a role in interceptions, and in a bad-luck year a gunslinger like Eli is going to throw 20-30 picks. In 2005, his first full season as starter, Manning was second in the NFL in interceptions, behind only Favre, who had the worst season of his career. The next year, he and Favre tied for fourth. The year after that, he tied for the most interceptions in the NFL. 2008 and '09 were better, and last year he led the league again.
This is a guy who has played six full seasons, and in two of them he's led the NFL in picks. In two others, he was in the "top" five. Last year wasn't an aberration; it was entirely consistent with Eli's career.
His almost unparalleled tendency to throw interceptions has always been Eli's biggest problem. But he also seems to save his worst performances for the stretch run. With the exception of his genuinely fine play in the 2007 postseason, when the Giants won the Super Bowl, Manning has consistently played his worst at the end of the season. This is lifted from my Week 14 Power Rankings last season:
Eli Manning has entered his annual cold-weather swoon. This is like clockwork. Every year, Eli Manning plays well in September and October, and people announce with tremendous authority that he has turned the corner and is one of the great QBs in the NFL, sometimes even asserting that he is better than Peyton and sliced bread. Then November rolls around, and Eli turns into Mark Sanchez. This isn't just about weather: Tom Brady plays outdoors, in conditions just as bad, and his passer rating in December (92.8) is the same as in September (93.1). Eli's per-game averages, by month:
Eli's inconsistency is particularly baffling because he has so consistently played on good teams. He's always had a good offensive line. He had an exceptional running back (Tiki Barber), Pro Bowl tight end (Jeremy Shockey), and quality receivers like Amani Toomer, Plaxico Burress, and Steve Smith. Furthermore — and this matters — he's usually had a good defense. A strong defense takes pressure off the quarterback. You don't have to come from behind when the opponent knows you have to pass. You don't have to force a throw if it's not there. You get good field position. Eli has always had a fairly strong supporting cast, and let's not pretend that Ramses Barden and Victor Cruz were going to turn Eli into Aaron Rodgers.
Neil complained in his article that Little Manning didn't make the NFL Network's "Top 100 Players of 2011" list, while Donovan McNabb, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan all did. McNabb is at a strange point in his career, and I don't think anyone really knows what to expect of him in 2011, but I felt like he made the best of a bad situation last year in Washington, and in '09, his stats were very much in line with Eli's. That season, the Eagles finished 11-5. Then they replaced McNabb with Michael Vick and dropped to 10-6. If we all agree that Vick is better than Eli, it seems reasonable to put McNabb around the same level.
Tony Romo, when he's healthy, is a far better quarterback than Eli, and that's so obvious I'm sure Neil would agree. What about the young guys: Flacco and Freeman and Ryan? Neil noted that Eli passed for more yards and more touchdowns than any of the three, and that's true. He also threw as many interceptions as all three combined, rushed for the fewest yards, and lost the most fumbles. Does none of that matter? Seriously, Eli threw as many interceptions (25) as Flacco (10), Freeman (6), and Ryan (9) put together. That's a really big deal. The Giants led the NFL in turnovers last season (42), with 30 of those falling on Eli. The last team to commit 40 turnovers and make the playoffs was the 2001 Rams, but that team averaged 40 yards a game more than last year's Giants.
Freeman is a hugely promising talent. Last season, he passed for 3,451 yards. That's 550 fewer than Eli. He threw 25 TD passes, 6 fewer than Manning. But he committed 21 fewer turnovers and rushed for 300 more yards. Plus, Freeman played his best at the end of the season. Freeman is only 23, and he visibly improved during the season. Seriously, look at his passer rating month by month:
Sep: 84.6
Oct: 88.6
Nov: 93.8
Dec: 105.2
Jan: 133.2
Eli, in contrast, did his dismal December dance, with a 71.7 passer rating in the last full month of the season. Who do you want, the guy that throws 20 interceptions every year and is turning 31 this season, or the 23-year-old who played as well at the end of last season as anyone this side of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers?
Matt Ryan passed for 3,705 yards and 28 TDs last season, with only 9 INTs. Flacco passed for over 3,600 yards and 25 TDs, with 10 picks. Eli got picked 16 times more than Ryan, 15 more than Flacco. Think about your favorite team's quarterback. If he threw an extra interception every Sunday, would you trade that for 25 yards per game and an extra TD pass once every three weeks? I wouldn't. An interception typically costs much more than 25 yards.
Perhaps most importantly, Flacco and Ryan, like Freeman, figure to be even better in 2011, improve as they get more experience. Eli isn't likely to get any better at this point in his career. A good quarterback can play well into his 30s, but you normally stop improving by that point. The young guys got visibly better from month to month, week to week in Freeman's case. Neil wrote about the Giants' injuries last season, like Freeman was throwing passes to Jerry Rice and Lance Alworth. The Bucs' leading receivers last year were a tight end, a rookie, and a running back with no knees (Cadillac Williams).
Eli has good counting stats (yards, TDs) because he never misses a game. But his rate stats are consistently middle of the road, because he's simply not a great quarterback. Neil conceded that Eli isn't on the same level as Brady and Peyton and the other top-of-the-list QBs, but he inexplicably claimed that "the numbers also don't suggest that he is a middle-of-the-road quarterback," which actually is exactly what the numbers suggest. To reach a different conclusion, you have to focus exclusively on the last season or two and ignore the defining characteristic of Eli's playing style, which is high-risk, high-reward: lots of touchdowns and lots of interceptions. You can't give him credit for one and ignore the other, because they're both a function of the way Eli has always played.
Peyton's little brother is not a bad quarterback; he's average, maybe even a little above average. His reputation makes him more than that. Eli Manning is not someone I have ever felt sorry for. This is a kid who was born in a well-off family, raised in a loving environment, tutored by Archie and Peyton, drafted first overall, traded by his own demand to the team of his choice, got hot at the right time and won a Super Bowl MVP Award, signed a $100 million contract, and has several national endorsement deals. He gets a ton of hype because of his last name, his college career, the fact that he plays in New York, and the good fortune that members of the media adore his family. With so many things going for him, Eli doesn't need our sympathy.
So let's be realistic. He's an inconsistent player who throws too many interceptions, can't run, and fades every December. He's a good fantasy backup because he never sits and he plays on a team that scores touchdowns, but he's a mediocre starter in real life because he doesn't protect the ball and has struggled with his accuracy. There are easily a dozen better QBs in the league, and Eli would cause serious problems for a team that wasn't already pretty good. Ever year, Eli is a very average quarterback, sometimes a touch better than average. But he's not elite, and he's not underrated.
August 15, 2011
Alex Forestieri:
I agree with what you say. Statistically Eli is not an elite QB. Being a Giants fan I have watched him since he was a rookie. And it has been up and down for me.
However I think you give his supporting cast too much credit. He had Tiki and Shockey; but not until they were gone did they win a Superbowl. He had Steve Smith as a rookie that year and he only really made an impact come the playoffs. After that Smith has had one good year.
He has worked with a constant change at WR. Nicks and Manningham are his No. 1 and No. 2 this year. Neither one of them was there 3 years ago. Manningham barely played last year.
We could debate stats and what he has contributed all day. But I think something you don’t talk about is how Eli has fit into his role and accepted it, especially being in NY. It might be a strange point but his mentality and his leadership are the reason why the Giants won the Superbowl and are a constant in the NFC.
Most other QBs in this league could not handle the NY media. Imagine Phillip Rivers in NY, he would probably would have imploded by his 3rd season. Even big brother Peyton couldn’t handle the media like Eli does, or doesn’t do. Nothing gets to him. Including all his INT’s. He’ll go back out there and go try and make a play (I do hope he takes better care of the ball this year).
August 15, 2011
adam:
Great article brad, and even better researching for the
stats to back up your story. You won’t catch anyone not
from NY trying to argue that eli is underrated bc its crazy.
He might be the reason there always in the race but all
his interceptions are the reason there never anything more.
Even the year they won the superbowl is was bc of an incredible D-line and a extremely luck catch by a play who’s not even relevant anymore. Brad give me an atrticle on the eagles and what you think would hold them back from winning it all please
August 16, 2011
Jake:
Typical anti-Eli article. You lost all credibility with the “Peyton’s little brother” and “Little Manning” comments. Yes, it is much better to focus on the turnovers while completely dismissing the positives (yardage, touchdowns, completion percentage). Everyone likes to say “Oh he was only sacked 16 times, his offensive line was great!”. The fact is that the line was mediocre and Eli often threw the ball away quickly instead of taking a sack. Sometimes this resulted in an incompletion, sometimes this netted a positive play for a gain of a few yards and often this resulted in an interception.
Do I think Eli is better than Peyton? Absolutely not, because Peyton is one of the two best quarterbacks in the last 30 years.
ESPN revealed a new quarterback statistic, Total Quarterback Rating. It is designed to take into account all different factors. Based on this stat, Eli was the 7th best QB in the league last year behind: Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Ryan and Vick.
August 16, 2011
Andrew Jones:
Nice counterpoint to Neil’s article. I think your second to last paragraph is the most on the money. He doesn’t need any sports writers talking him up or fans to praise him as elite. He’s doing just fine. His career actually seems to suggest he’s more of a Favre Jr. than Peyton’s little brother. High risk, high reward. But for my money, Favre was so much more exciting to watch and I think that is where there is a disconnect. High risk, high reward quarterbacks have to be full of fire and charisma and Eli just doesn’t have that like Favre did or like Tony Romo does.
August 20, 2011
Brad Oremland:
Thanks for the comments, guys. Nice point, Andrew, about Eli as a les interesting (and less talented) version of Favre or Romo. Jake, my colleague Neil’s column — which supported Eli — was titled “Peyton’s Little Brother”, which was why I used that phrase. There are only so many times you can type “Eli” in a single column, ya know?
Alex, I’m not sure I buy the “what if” arguments about handling the NY media, which is much less a factor in the NFL than MLB or NBA, because the NFL is so popular that a quarterback in Green Bay (pop. 104,057) can be the most popular and well-known player in the country, or a QB in Indianapolis can reel in endorsement deals.
It seems to me that Philip Rivers, whom you cited as an example, is far more mentally tough than Eli, but it’s all a game of “what if”. Certainly Rivers is the far better player.
August 23, 2011
Lenny Bernstein:
I’ve been a Giants fan for as long as I can remember. In my early years as a fan, we lost every year! When Phil Simms came to the Giants, we one day said that we will miss Phil when he is gone! I say the same about “Peyton’s little brother”! Stats are stats and yes they do count because after all we do keep score and wins are what matters, but we will miss Eli someday! He did bring a Super Bowl to us and I for one will forever be a greatful fan for that alone.
ps. not sure about the point/counterpoint concept of this article. A bit too much like Saturday Night Live for my liking.
August 23, 2011
Alan:
This is an interesting article and one that brings up quite a few good points, but it doesn’t really point to Eli being overrated, especially this year. All you hear in the media about Eli are the 25 interceptions and none of the positives. People now are pointing to his flaws more than ever before. Though he may have been overrated before, you can’t say he’s definitely overrated currently.
Even to say he was overrated before, I would say is a topic of debate. From the second he came into the league, no one has ever looked at him strictly for him. On draft night, it was well argued he was only picked first because his last name is Manning. From his first day at training camp, all you heard was how if he didn’t have the Manning name he wouldn’t even be starting. I wouldn’t call Eli overrated. I would say he’s a victim of huge expectations because of his last name. There’s a big difference between the two, but many feel they’re interchangeable.
As for your argument about Eli’s failures in cold weather. That is only partially true. He’s been bad at the Meadowlands, new and old, during the cold, windy months but he’s played pretty well in other outdoor stadiums from November to January. I recently heard on either WFAN or ESPN an argument about his late season stats and someone pointed out the fact that QBs who go into the Meadowlands (the old one moreso than the new one) during the end of November through January all show significant drops in performance because of the swirling winds. Now I’m not sure about the winds argument in the new Meadowlands, but that was one of the items opposing teams and QBs have publicly stated they hated the most about the old Meadowlands. Considering the only team that can play there more times than the Giants is the Jets (Sanchez also has significant drops in performance in the latter months of the season), is it any wonder why Eli’s stats would drop at the end of the season more than other QBs? Now, I’m not defending Eli, I think he’s somewhere between top 10 and top 15, but I think to ignore that argument is simply piling on.
September 5, 2011
Chris DeSantis:
As Bill Parcell’s once said..”Stats are for Losers” Eli is the offensive leader of the Giants and has handled all NY has thrown at him since he was a rookie. I love the line about Tyree is the reason the Giants won the Super Bowl..How about taking the Giants 80 yards in 47 seconds against the Cowboys right before halftime in Dallas..think Dallas forgot that and winning the game there.
How about winning in Green Bays and making Al Harris look like a rookie cornerback..Oh I know it was all Plaxico..sure it was.
And let’s not forget who kept the Giants in the game against the undefeated Patriots. Sure the “D” was good, but it wasn’t the Lawrence Taylor dominating “D”.
Is Eli in the Top 5, No, but he certainly is in the Top 10 for what he brings every week. Yeah he threw 25 interceptions last year..11 were tips off his receivers..He also threw for over 4,000 yards..with how many pro bowl receivers?
September 15, 2011
cliff c:
Eli makes a lot of mistakes and if it wasn’t for the interceptions he produce he wouldn’t be considered an overrated QB. that’s his Achilles heel. just like Bret Farve. frankly that the main thing that is used against him most of the time.
January 23, 2012
ryan:
Eli now asks, “How’s my ass taste?”
January 30, 2012
BXBuffalo:
Tell me again how “Peytons little brother” is overrated and how Tony Romo or even Philip who is better then him. He isnt the best QB in the league but def top 5 and u just hatin if he dont think he is at least top 10.
January 30, 2012
BXBuffalo:
And another thing. U cant undermind the NY media. Even if he was the worst QB in the league he is getting more media attention and pressure in a week then most other QBs get in a half a season.
February 6, 2012
LOLOL:
Eli is a joke. The Giants team around him on the other hand, is amazing. If you take ANY other starting QB in the league and put them on the Giants, they would have won the superbowl both times Eli did.
With Peyton, the Colts are a superbowl threat, without him they’re the worst team in the league. If Peyton and Eli had switched teams, Peyton would have had a dynasty in NY without breaking a sweat.
April 18, 2012
Eric:
Eli haters got owned.
June 13, 2012
Alex Iommelli:
LOL… Was the writer of this article kidding? And if not, has he printed a retraction or an apology to ELI? Romo, Vick, and Rivers are better than ELI? Is LeBron better than Jordan too. Is this guy a sports writer? Cause I thought you had to have a basic knowledge of sports to be one. Go G-Men