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August 31, 2011

Hurricane Irene First, Now Hurricane McHale

I had to apologize to our great editor and founder, Marc James, for not getting this out to you all until today. As you all know, I'm here on the Jersey Shore, yes that one, and after three days without power, I finally have the ability to power up my computer and send this in.

I survived, as did most of us here. The U.S. Open survived, as well, with the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center staying high and dry. Few know that the NTC is right on the Long Island Sound, and is in one of the largest flood plains in the area. The dire predictions for the hurricane had the NTC right as a target. Fortunately, the storm turned out to be less then expected, and the U.S. Open got off with a two-hour late, but still great, start.

The storm put NJ and the word devastation together. Seems fitting, as at the U.S. Open, with two rounds done, NJ resident and local girl Christina McHale have swept through like Hurricane Irene taking out Aleksandra Wozniak in the first round and No. 8 seed Marion Bartoli in the second round. McHale has been the lone bright spot for U.S. women's tennis this year, and her steady improvement has been a welcome sight here in Flushing Meadows.

Her victory over Bartoli marks her second huge win of the summer, the previous one coming just two weeks ago in Cincinnati with a stunning victory over WTA Tour No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki. Her confidence clearly got a boost from that win, and she has ridden it like a storm surge into the third round here.

Born in Teaneck, New Jersey and hailing from Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, you would be hard-pressed to find any resemblance between McHale and any cast member of MTV's "Jersey Shore." While I am sure she has visited our area, which of course is also home to 2009 and 2010 women's champion Kim Clijsters, her sights and feet are firmly planted at the NTC and aimed at a run for the title. She doesn't have big hair, a deep tan, or the "smokey eye," but what she currently has is killer shots, consistency, and the mental tenacity just like the hurricane she follows.

At the time of this writing, the draw has clearly opened up, giving some hope that McHale can move deeper into the draw and give the local crowd and the U.S. some excitement in week two. Venus Williams has withdrawn, French Open champ and Aussie Open runner-up Na Li was eliminated in the first round, and the always-dangerous 21-seed Daniela Hantuchova is also out. There are still plenty of big champions still here, including Maria Sharapova and Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova, but maybe that Cinderella story is ours again with McHale.

The finals this year will be on the 10th anniversary of the attacks here in NYC of 9/11. Wouldn't it be something if our local NJ girl managed to be playing on that Sunday?

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 8:36 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 24

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kyle Busch — Busch faded late at Bristol, hitting the wall with 87 laps to go, and finished 14th, behind his three closest challengers for the Sprint Cup points lead, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards, who came home fourth, sixth, and ninth, respectively. Busch and Johnson are now tied for the points lead, 32 up on Kenseth.

"I take pride in leading the point standings," Busch said, "especially when my fellow leader is Johnson. As of driver with no Cup championships aspiring to be compared to one with five, this may be my only chance to be 'like' Jimmie.

"But let's be honest. Win or lose, people love to talk about me. I'm like the Danica Patrick of NASCAR, but with less balls."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished fourth at Bristol, earning his 10th top-five result of the year, and moved into a tie in the point standings with Kyle Busch, who finished 14th.

"I feel like I'm flying under the radar," Johnson said, "despite being the points leader and the five-time defending champion. It just goes to show that in NASCAR circles, memories are short and title reigns are long.

"Last week, you heard me question Kyle Busch's ability to handle the pressure of being the so-called favorite. It took only a week for me to be proven right. After winning at Michigan, Busch went to Bristol as not only the Cup favorite, but the favorite to win at Bristol. It's clear he can't handle the pressure of the Chase if he can't even handle the pressure of being chased."

3. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski remained NASCAR's hottest driver, taking the win at Bristol for his third win of the year and second in the last four races. He is now 11th in the point standings, and a spot in the Chase For the Cup is all but guaranteed.

"Don't call this a 'Cinderella' story," Keselowski said. "Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has dibs on that, because he's the one with the evil stepmother.

"Am I the biggest threat to Jimmie Johnson's reign? It was merely a week ago that everyone was heralding another driver as Johnson's biggest threat, but it appears that now, Kyle Busch is an 'as been. As a favor to me, please send your condolences to Kyle via his Twitter address '@ssKyleBusch.'"

4. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led a race-high 206 laps in the Irwin Tools Night Race, but took four tires during the race's final caution, falling behind Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex, Jr., who both took two tires. Gordon finished third and remained sixth in the point standings, 48 out of first.

"I'm not happy with the way NASCAR times pit road speeds," Gordon said. "Brad Keselowski and Matt Kenseth clearly got away with speeding. I feel that they're monitored under a completely different set of rules. Of course, who am I to complain? I, of all people, should know that 'two-timing' is okay as long as you don't get caught."

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick struggled after a strong start at Bristol, falling two laps down just after the half-way point, and finished 22nd, one lap down. He has only one top-10 result since a seventh at Daytona in July, and is down to fifth in the point standings, 48 out of first.

"Luckily, things aren't all bad," Harvick said. "I won the Camping World Trucks race on Wednesday, then I called Kyle Busch a 'crybaby' after he complained about his fate in the Truck race last Wednesday. In both cases, it's 'bitchin.'

"Like some others, I clinched at least a wildcard spot in the Chase by virtue of my three wins. That means I could do nothing from now until the Chase starts, and I'm still in. My lackluster results since my third win at Charlotte indicate that's the philosophy I've been living by since late May."

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led 110 laps at Bristol, second only to Jeff Gordon's 206, and finished sixth, as he and teammate Carl Edwards, who finished ninth, clinched berths in the Chase For The Cup. Kenseth improved three spots in the point standings to third, and trails Kyle Busch and Jimmie Johnson by 32.

"Carl and I are in," Kenseth said. "I'm quite relieved, that the thing Carl threatened to 'punch' was a ticket to the Chase and not me."

7. Carl Edwards — Edwards posted his first top-10 finish in three weeks, coming home ninth in the Irwin Tools Night Race. Edwards remained fourth in the point standings, and is 35 out of first.

"I certainly haven't been performing up to my standards," Edwards said. "My teammates have asked this question for awhile now, but now, everyone wants to know, 'What's wrong with Carl Edwards?'

"Many think I became complacent after signing my huge contract extension with Roush Fenway, and as a result, my performance has been lacking. Is that the case? I'm not at liberty to answer. I can say this: 'Money talks, and it also speaks volumes."

8. Ryan Newman — Newman posted his second consecutive top-10 finish and fifth in the last seven races with an eighth at Bristol, leading four laps on the night. While teammate Tony Stewart has struggled lately, Newman has solidified his place in the standings, and is seventh with two races until the Chase.

"I won the pole for Bristol," Newman said, "while Stewart started 43rd. Personally, I haven't felt that much distance between teammates since Rusty Wallace and I drove for Penske.

"Tony's at a disadvantage to some other drivers hovering on the Chase bubble. While Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, and Paul Menard have one or more victories, Tony has none. That's okay. I've told Tony the wins will come. Right now, he just needs to concentrate on making the Chase. Therefore, his mantra for the next two races is 'Just in, baby.'"

9. Kurt Busch — Busch, traditionally a force at Bristol, finished 17th in the Irwin Tools Night Race as Penske teammate Brad Keselowski took the victory. Busch remained eighth in the point standings, 81 out of the lead.

"Brad's taking the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge to heights I only dreamed about," Busch said. "It appears he 'has my number,' and everyone else's for that matter.

"Brad is on an incredible tear as of late. Can anyone stop him? The results of a recent survey suggest the answer is 'no.' Drivers were asked, 'If Brad Keselowski were 'on fire,' would you put him out? Most replied 'no,' and it looks as though they weren't lying."

10. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin kept his Chase hopes alive with a hard-earned seventh at Bristol, overcoming damage suffered on lap 297 when he was collected in a David Stremme/David Reutimann wreck. Hamlin moved up one spot to 13th in the standings, and is currently in position to earn a wild card spot.

"Many drivers on the Chase bubble struggled," Hamlin said, "including Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer, and Paul Menard. That's good news for me. I normally don't delight in the misery of others, but being a teammate of Kyle Busch's has taught me that it's okay.

"My Chase situation is good, yet precarious. I have to be at the top of my game, otherwise I could be out. If I 'mail it in,' I'll be sure to 'FedEx-it.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:16 PM | Comments (0)

August 30, 2011

Does the NFL Preseason Matter?

Last weekend, a friend of mine mentioned that it's important for NFL teams to do well in preseason, since the results can affect a team's performance in the regular season. I assured him that was a load of baloney, but my buddy insisted he'd seen a study proving it. A lifetime of following the NFL left me certain that there was either a very weak correlation between preseason and regular season performance, or — more likely — no correlation at all. He sent me the link he'd seen, which is from almost a decade ago and kept the sample sizes pretty small.

So I did my own research, looking at preseason results from every season since the league expanded to 32 teams (2002-10), a total of 588 preseason games. Some of what I found surprised me, though most of it confirmed my prior belief that preseason results are effectively meaningless. Consider the 2010 preseason:

* The Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers went 2-2. So did the New England Patriots, who finished with the best record in the NFL, and the Atlanta Falcons, who had the best record in the NFC.

* The only team to go 4-0 in preseason was the hugely disappointing San Francisco 49ers, who finished 6-10 in the NFL's weakest division.

* Two teams went 0-4: the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts, both of whom won their divisions.

I could go on. The Seattle Seahawks, who won the NFC West, went 1-3 in preseason. Everyone else in the division went 3-1 or better. And so on. It's seldom that extreme, but most years, there are good teams who do terribly in preseason, and bad teams who look like world-beaters when the score doesn't matter.

Over the past nine years, the team with the worst preseason record is the Indianapolis Colts, who have gone 11-27 (.289). The five teams with preseason records worse than .400, along with their regular season records during those years:

1. Indianapolis Colts, 11-27 (.289) preseason — 109-35 (.757)
2. Kansas City Chiefs, 12-25 (.324) preseason — 67-77 (.465)
3. Houston Texans, 13-24 (.351) preseason — 55-89 (.382)
4t. Buffalo Bills, 14-23 (.378) preseason — 59-85 (.410)
4t. Philadelphia Eagles, 14-23 (.378) preseason — 91-52-1 (.635)

That's two of the best teams in the NFL (Colts and Eagles), two of the worst (Bills and Texans), and one that's been up and down (Chiefs). Tough to draw any conclusions from that. Fewer teams have really excelled in preseason over the last nine years, but there are two who are well over .600:

1. New York Jets, 25-12 (.676) preseason — 72-72 (.500)
2. Dallas Cowboys, 23-13-1 (.635) preseason — 78-66 (.542)

Again, you wouldn't really want to draw any conclusions from that. The team with by far the best preseason record since expansion is exactly average in the regular season, and the team with the worst record is in reality one of the most consistently successful teams in the league, making the playoffs during every season included in my study.

Ultimately, though, I did find one correlation that surprised me. Teams that do poorly in the preseason are below average in the regular season. Not dramatically so, but the correlation is there. Interestingly, I did not find the opposite to be true: doing well in the preseason appears to be meaningless. Since the 2002 expansion, 16 teams have gone 4-0 in preseason. That includes successful teams like the '03 Patriots and '05 Broncos, but it also includes terrible teams like the '03 Cardinals and the winless 2008 Lions. Overall, those 16 teams went 130-125-1, almost exactly average. A great preseason doesn't seem to be a meaningful guide to a team's regular-season performance.

When a team really bombs the preseason, though, that can sometimes be an indication that the team is in for a disappointing year once the real games begin. Since '02, 18 teams have gone 0-4 or 0-5 in preseason. Again, there are some good teams: six of those 18 teams won 10 or more games, including the 2005 Colts, who started 14-0. But overall, the teams that went winless in preseason came up with a collective record of 134-154 (.465), which isn't devastating, but it's not good, 10 games below .500. Eighteen is a pretty small sample size, so you wouldn't want to draw too many conclusions from the fact that these teams went an average of 7.5-8.5. I mean, it's not like they all went 5-11 or something.

But there's more. I've always thought of records between .250 and .750 as pretty average. A good team having a bad year might finish 5-11, and a pretty average team can win 11 games with a little luck. But 4-12 or worse is an awfully poor season, and anything 12-4 or better generally marks a pretty elite team. Looking at the years I studied, 40 teams went 12-4 or better. Those teams finished a collective 86-77 in the preseason (.528), which is a little better than average, but not at a significant level. Literally every season, there is a great team who had a miserable preseason.

* In 2002, the Eagles went 1-3 in preseason before finishing 12-4 and making it to the NFC Championship Game.

* The 2003 Rams were 1-3 in August, but they went 12-4 and got a first-round bye in the playoffs.

* Both 2004 Super Bowl teams, the Patriots and Eagles, finished 1-3.

* The Colts finished 1-3 or worse every year from 2005-09, a total record of 4-18 (.182). Their regular-season record over those seasons was 65-15 (.813), every season 12-4 or better, including two years at 14-2, with two AFC titles and a win in Super Bowl XLI.

* In 2010, the division-winning Bears, Colts, and Chiefs finished a combined 1-11 in preseason.

Doing well in the regular season simply is not related to doing well in the preseason. The correlation is extremely small, less than half a game. But doing poorly in the preseason may be a slightly different story. Over the past nine seasons, 42 teams have finished 4-12 or below. Those 42 teams posted a combined preseason record of just 70-92 (.432). That makes almost 100 points of difference between the preseason records of the best teams (.528) and the worst (.432). Is this data statistically significant? No, not really. The difference is still pretty small — .432 is 7-9, a pretty average season — and the sample sizes with these teams aren't large enough to inspire confidence in the findings. Here are the big numbers: the chart below shows the overall results, sorted by preseason record, since the league went to 32 teams:

* Includes a 3-0-1 preseason
** Includes a 2-1-1 preseason
^ Includes a 0-5 preseason

Sorted another way, by winning record, losing record, or exactly even:

The difference is not between teams that do well in preseason and those that do poorly; it's between those who do poorly and those who are exactly average. Looked at this way, the difference is small, but it is real. Bombing in August may be a negative indication about a team's actual strength. The causal nature of this relationship is not obvious: do bad teams lose in preseason because they're bad, or does a poor preseason affect a team's psyche going forward?

When this becomes interesting is from 2004 on. In the 2003 preseason, and to a lesser extent '02 as well, there was a dramatic connection between preseason and regular season performance. In '03, both Super Bowl teams (Pats and Panthers) went 4-0, as did the 12-4 Titans. Even the Colts had a good preseason, going 3-1 before a 12-4 regular season. Two teams, Houston and Atlanta, followed winless preseasons (0-4) with 5-11 regular season records.

Looking just from 2004-10, the results show the opposite of my friend's assertion: there is an inverse relationship between preseason performance and regular-season success. Teams that went winless in preseason had a better regular-season record (109-115, .487) than those who finished preseason undefeated (71-89, .444), and Super Bowl teams had a losing preseason record (27-29). Here's the same table as above, looking just at the past seven seasons:

* Includes a 3-0-1 preseason
** Includes a 2-1-1 preseason
^ Includes a 0-5 preseason

I don't normally like to shrink sample size, but the data appears to show a trend starting in 2004, with teams that were very successful or very unsuccessful in preseason marginally worse than the rest of the league. I also think the records of teams that played five preseason games are potentially instructive here. The 12 teams that went 3-2 or better were subpar in the regular season (.443), while those that went 2-3 or worse were exceptionally successful (.635), with four of the six making the playoffs. This is probably a statistical aberration rather than meaningful data, but it's still interesting, I think.

Conclusion

Preseason records should be ignored when predicting a team's regular-season fortunes. There is a correlation between preseason mediocrity and regular-season success, but it is too small to be of any predictive use, more likely to mislead forecasters than to assist them. From a fan's perspective, preseason games are almost entirely meaningless.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:53 PM | Comments (0)

MLB Presumes Labor Peace in Approaching Offseason

As we enter the final weeks of the 2011 Major League Baseball season, unlike other impending offseasons in recent years, this will be of the collective bargaining kind.

But unique to this collective bargaining campaign for MLB and its counterpart, the Major League Baseball Players Association, are the unprecedented back-to-back lockouts of both the National Football League and the National Basketball Association in the same calendar year and in the same calendar year requiring collective bargaining for MLB.

So therefore, MLB fans and sports fans alike will more than likely tune out such a topic between the end of the of the 2011 MLB season and December 11, 2011 when the Basic Agreement expires.

There have been rumors that next to the NFL, which is now unlocked, and the NBA which is still in lock-down mode, that the MLB collective bargaining negotiations will be a cake walk in comparison.

But most MLB fans probably are not aware of the issues that will require bargaining. Particularly frustrating to fans is that they have had a bellyful of the machinations that encompass the billionaire-millionaire kabuki dances, that professional sports leagues shamelessly perform for their fans, allowing for the rich getting richer.

So, just to give fans a heads-up, there are quite a few matters which could be of concern to the power-that-be, and how each party will stand to benefit from a new MLB/MLBPA Basic Agreement. And before it is all said and done, depending on how smoothly the negotiations go, a few fans will be lost along the way, and most likely more will be less able to afford those peanuts and Crackerjack in 2012 going forward in this lingering Great Double Dip Recession of the 21st century.

MLB Commissioner Bud Selig will have his game face on as he hopes to enter negotiations with MLBPA Executive Director Michael Weiner. Weiner takes over for former MLBPA Executive Director Donald Fehr, the new Executive Director of the National Hockey League Players' Association (NHLPA).

But it will be very interesting to see how MLB bobs and weaves with its new opponent. And although both sides are cordial and have their Cheshire cat grins on now, the many new issues on the agenda and the prizes to be had may turn out to be only the kind found in a box of Crackerjack.

The last five years of "labor peace" in MLB is not quite as peaceful as MLB would have you believe. For performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) are still very much in the rearview mirror. For example, Barry Bonds struck out in his first bid to overturn his federal obstruction of justice conviction on August 26, 2011. Bonds was convicted on April 13, 2011 of lying about the use of PEDs to a federal Grand Jury during the 2003 BALCO case investigation.

Meanwhile, that same day of August 26, 2011, Roger Clemens filed arguments to have his federal obstruction of Congress indictment dismissed and to pre-empt a retrial of his mistrial of July 14, 2011. Judge Reggie Walton of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia will hold a hearing on September 2, 2011 on that case's fate. The mistrial, decided by Judge Walton, occurred as the result of the prosecution having shown the jury inadmissible video evidence.

But we should not be fooled into surmising that remnants of Messrs. Bonds' and Clemens' use of PEDs are not in any way relevant to the upcoming collective bargaining agreement (CBA). And even though Bud Selig was awarded a wing dedicated in his honor at the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum and dedicated as the Allan H. "Bud" Selig Center For the Archives of Major League Baseball Commissioners in August 2011, an overwhelming part of his legacy could very well constitute his handling of the steroid era, which occurred on his watch.

There are more than a few propositions that are expected to land on the bargaining table in this fall's negotiations, such as penalties for driving under the influence (DUI), violating local laws, and "off the field infractions." It would require owners stepping into the fray and could get dicey.

Supposedly MLB's owners want a league-wide mandate to penalize a player not only for breaking the law, but one who "hurts the community or the "community's feelings." Criminal prosecution followed by team and league fines or penalties are one thing. But a league-wide mandate that requires an interpretation of an offense to the community is perhaps a job for the morality police rather than MLB and its designees or its owners.

We have seen how well that is working in the NFL, for example, whereby the NFL cherry picks who and how much a player gets fined, suspended, or kicked out of the league, based upon an unempirical formula. There also is a blur between criminal and moral behaviors regarding the NFL's thresholds for its penalties and exactly how they are doled out.

Should you think that drug testing in MLB is a resolved issue and rests with those offenders from the prior era, think again. For if MLB gets its way, it hopes to push its present minor leagues' system of required human growth hormone (HGH) testing through blood testing, right on through to the major leagues. MLB mandatorily dictates to minor leaguers as they are non-unionized and have no representation or recourse for such invasive testing.

Additionally, as there is no reliable present urine-based test for HGH use, there remain question marks throughout the international sports community concerning whether the blood test is even ready for primetime. Such testing is still being worked out by the NFL, even though its players agreed to it in their recently ratified CBA.

And along with bumping up drug testing in MLB comes Bud Selig's long-held desire to prevent MLB players from using chewing tobacco at all. MLB would at least probably settle for elimination of its presence on the field of play during games.

Again, MLB limited chew from the minor leagues a few seasons back and hopes to transfer the same policy to the major leagues. But one thing that most likely will have to change is the unusual arrangement of tobacco chewing oversight in the minor leagues, which has been relegated to the minor league umpires. Frankly, we need potential major league umps learning how to call balls and strikes and seeing bang-bang plays correctly, rather than monitoring how much players spit.

And without the one-way street in minor league baseball which follows order from MLB, perhaps MLB would not have the kind of precedent-setting leverage they enjoy when they enter these talks with the MLBPA.

Other topics expected to be broached during the CBA process will include: expanding the playoffs; realignment of the major leagues; expanding instant replay; changes to the current draft system concerning rookie bonuses and setting up an international draft; changes to the luxury tax system with owners looking for reductions; a guarantee fund to avoid future bankrupt organizations; changes in the current free agent system with A and B free agents stat thresholds modified.

Let us hope that MLB does not forget the fan, as it does not enjoy as rabid a fanbase as it once did and which the NFL has now captured. While the NFL weathered its lockout seemingly unmarked, any prolonged negotiations after December 11, 2011 will certainly challenge the goodwill of MLB fans.

And MLB is not in an envious position as even the NBA, as with each year that passes, the fanbase of MLB faces more and more erosion.

Bud Selig's legacy will be comprised of numerous factors, including how this last labor agreement of his career is structured, as he retires in November of 2012. To be determined is whether the new CBA will be of the "not in best interests of baseball" variety and another stain on an otherwise unremarkable career of one Allan H. "Bud" Selig."

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 12:01 PM | Comments (0)

August 29, 2011

On Tebow, Stop the Exaggeration

On December 26 of last year, the Broncos beat the Texans in a thrilling contest, 24-23. In the grand scheme of the NFL season, the game was insignificant except to decide each team's draft position in April. That day, the football-watching nation was tuned to Bears/Jets and Packers/Giants, games that would have a direct effect on the playoff picture. If you wanted to watch the entirety of Houston and Denver that day without a satellite, you had to be living in the central third of Texas or near the Rockies.

In attendance, the contest seemed much more important than it really was, as in person events often do. However, the exuberance from the crowd when the Broncos completed a comeback from 17-0 down at halftime was not one of a fan base that was willing to drop the game to improve draft position. More importantly, the comeback gave a the fans of a franchise that has not made the playoffs since 2005 a degree of hope during a 4-12 season, since it was Tim Tebow's maiden NFL win as a starter. Shouts of "TE-BOW! TE-BOW! TE-BOW!" could be heard regularly during the game, and were especially present as the crowd filed out of the concourses into the Denver evening.

(It should be noted that others weren't as pleased with the win that day. The next morning on the Broncos' flagship station in Denver, KOA, a talk show host proclaimed the win as "horrible" since it disqualified the club from the first pick in the draft, then presumably Stanford's Andrew Luck. Given how well the Broncos' No. 2 overall pick, Von Miller, has performed and the fact that Luck is still in Palo Alto, I'd say the win turned out alright.)

The optimism directly related to Tebow in Denver has of course been tempered considerably in the month since the lockout ended. The Broncos' staff, including John Fox and John Elway, rate incumbent starter Kyle Orton more highly than Tebow. In the second preseason game, the former Heisman winner served as the third quarterback, only seeing time in the exhibition against Buffalo deep into the fourth quarter. Tebow was number two once again against Seattle on Saturday night.

By most accounts, the right decision has been made. Tebow, while showing glimpses of brilliance in game action, has not produced enough substantive results on the practice field. His still-elongated delivery concerns many. Furthermore, the lockout meant that Tebow could not work on his crucial flaws everyday at the Broncos' facilities with coaches' assistance. Orton, while not participating in many winning teams a year ago, still averaged over 275 yards a game, had a 2-to-1 interception-to-touchdown ratio and an above-average QB rating. If the front office and the coaching staff believe that Orton gives Denver the best chance to improve, they have every right to start him. It's not as if Orton is at such an advanced age to where he can't factor in to the Broncos' medium-to-long term plans.

However, the media rhetoric concerning Tebow's ability to play in the NFL has been ridiculous and inaccurate. The kingpin of the absurdity has been ESPN's Merril Hoge, who is adamant that Tebow can't cut it in the NFL and never will be able to, without any degree of nuance whatsoever. CBS' Boomer Esiason and Steve Beuerlein (someone who has some experience struggling in Denver) have also gone on record as saying that Tebow is not NFL-caliber. Never mind that rookie and second-year quarterbacks should never be reasonably expected to duplicate their collegiate accomplishments.

Of the four quarterbacks drafted in the first three rounds of the 2010 draft, Tebow has arguably performed the best of the lot. Now, this is not to say that I would take the next 10 years of Tebow over the upcoming decade of Sam Bradford's career, but the 2010 numbers are comparable, albeit with a greater sample size for Bradford. Tebow last year had a QB rating of 82.1 to Bradford's 76.5, and had two more yards per attempt than the Oklahoma product, 8.0 to 6.0. Tebow had a slightly better interception-to-touchdown ratio, and averaged more total touchdowns a game. Colt McCoy and Jimmy Clausen each generally had poorer numbers than Tebow, save for completion percentage. Yet, I don't see the football punditry going out of its way to deem McCoy and Clausen as failures who don't stand a chance in the NFL.

The critics of the critics have been daft as well, with some claiming that Tebow's Christian faith is the cause for the panning of the 24-year old, when the real reason for the disproportionate attention given to Tebow is almost surely due to how ubiquitous he was in the college game. If you haven't forgotten, over three-quarters of Americans still identify themselves as Christians, with over a quarter further calling themselves evangelical. There's not any semblance of an anti-Christian agenda I can pick up in the sports media. If there was, the majority of players would be highly looked down upon. Nonetheless, I can say with reasonable confidence that never before in NFL history has the possible third-string QB of the league's second-worst team from the year before been talked about so much.

Claiming that a player, especially one with the credentials in the game of football of Tebow, can't play is a serious charge that deserves more backing than anecdotal evidence not based on the bigger picture. Now, criticism of Tebow's skill set, his throwing motion and his tendency to miss receivers are all valid. He has been the first to admit that his game is not perfect. However, the end product last season and this preseason has been serviceable or better.

Denver figures to improve to some degree this year without Tebow starting. The running game, putrid a year ago, should produce better results, given Fox's admiration and history with the ground game. The defense will pressure the quarterback better with Elvis Dumervil back from injuries and the addition of Miller. In the preseason, the first team defense has given up just 3.0 yards per play. If Tebow does not start one game this season for Denver, it doesn't change the fact that there should be a place for him in the NFL. After all, the worst 10 starters in the league usually don't put up better numbers than Tebow did last year in his starts. That won't change, despite the desire to turn the Tebow debate into something resembling a dogmatic conversation.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 5:17 PM | Comments (0)

August 28, 2011

Andruw Jones is Underrated, Yet Disappointing

By the time Andruw Jones ends his career, he'll most likely have over 2000 hits, just shy of 500 home runs, 10 Gold Gloves, five all-sStar appearances, and 10 years of playoff experience.

Is he a Hall of Famer? No. I don't have any delusions about that. Jones would have to get back to being an everyday player for another four or five years to put the Hall of Fame within reach. But Jones deserves far more credit as a great baseball player than most are willing to give him and statistically, he's a lot closer to the Hall than you might think.

In 1996 at the age of 19, Jones came onto the scene in a blaze. In 14 games of postseason play with the Atlanta Braves, he batted .345, hit 3 home runs, 9 RBI, and looked to be a young man ready to continue the winning ways of the Atlanta Braves. He also had 8 strikeouts in those playoffs.

Okay, so he was perhaps strikeout prone, but he was 19, he could learn. Jim Thome was strikeout-prone and he just hit home run number 600. So was Reggie Jackson, Mr. October. After the 1996 season, Mr. October, Jr. looked to be a solid nickname for Jones. What happened?

After 12 seasons in Atlanta, Jones had a lot of ups and downs. Strikeouts were certainly a factor. Jones had 100 strikeouts or more in every season with the Braves after that honeymoon playoff run in 1996.

He had some weight issues. He could have been a solid base stealer for a lot of years, but he put on over 30 pounds in the first five years in the major leagues. He still had the power, but he didn't seem to be the 19-year old clutch player the Braves were hoping to see more of.

Jones had some good years, even some great years. In 2000, he hit .303, 36 home runs, 104 RBI, and scored 122 runs. He finished eighth in the MVP voting in an extremely strong year for hitters.

In 2005, Jones had his best year, hitting 51 home runs and 128 RBI. He batted a weak .263 and lost in the MVP voting to Albert Pujols. A betting man or woman may have put some money on Jones to be the MVP in the next three seasons. There wouldn't have been a faster way to lose one's money.

In 2006, he had a similar year as 2005, only with 10 less home runs. In 2007, Jones struggled. Big time. He batted just .222, hitting only 26 home runs, just over half of what he had hit two years previous and only managed 94 RBI. The idea that he would be considered for MVP in 2007 was laughable.

Then, the deathblow. The Braves announced they would not be resigning Jones. After his worst season, at age 30, Jones was at the mercy of the free agent market. He still hadn't lost his Gold Glove, but the market had another Gold Glove center fielder available that offseason in Torii Hunter. They both ended up with L.A. teams. Hunter to the Angels, Jones to the Dodgers.

Jones' two-year, $36 million dollar contract surprised a lot of people. He didn't live up to it. Not even close. He showed up out of shape. He hit under .200. He landed on the DL for the first time in his career and he was benched. In 75 games, he batted .158 with 3 home runs and 14 RBI. Jones was so bad that he was not even placed on the playoff roster for the Dodgers. He didn't sit in the dugout. He didn't do anything with them. He flat-out sucked. Jones going to the Dodgers was perhaps the worst move to happen to a player in the last decade. Jones completely lost who he was and still hasn't found it. Now who he used to be is probably gone, lost forever. Was the Braves dumping him wise? Probably. Maybe if they had been in the American League they could have let him stay on, spotting him at DH a bit or something, but Atlanta dropping Jones ruined him.

After the 2006 season, calling Jones a potential Hall of Famer would have been met with general agreement. His batting average was low, but he had hit 342 home runs in just over 10 seasons and was only 29-years-old. 500 home runs seemed more than reachable.

Here we are just five years later and after stints in L.A., Texas, Chicago and now with the New York Yankees, Jones is only up to 416 home runs. His batting average has gotten far worse and he's no longer the dependable, everyday, Gold Glove center fielder he used to be.

He's only 34-years old and he's being treated like a 40-year old. People seem to forget that Jones still has a potential to play another five years, maybe more.

So where does Jones stand in the all time arena of baseball sluggers?

With 416 home runs, he's at number 45 all-time and eighth among active leaders. The next people he'll pass on the all time list are Billy Williams (426), Mike Piazza (427), Jason Giambi (427), and Cal Ripken (431). Of those four, Williams and Ripken are Hall of Famers. Piazza will likely be one. Giambi probably won't be, but it's not an impossibility. Giambi is 40. Jones has six years to reach his age and put up half-season stats to surpass him in home runs.

If that happens, if Jones hits even 10 home runs a year for six years, it would place him around 30th all-time with names like Willie Stargell (475), Stan Musial (475), Carlos Delgado (473), Dave Winfield (465), and Jose Canseco (462). It's a lot harder to ignore those names when one speaks of the Hall of Fame. And yet Jones in the Hall seems outlandish, ridiculous, crazy.

So why is Jones not viewed in the same light as others with as many home runs as he has. Is it the strikeouts? Jones is ranked 29th all-time in strikeouts, seventh among active leaders. Is it the poor batting average? A career hitting .256 and continuing downward doesn't bode well.
While strikeouts and a mediocre average don't help a player's cause, they aren't a deterrent that breaks a player's chances. Why won't Andruw Jones reach the Hall of Fame?

Two reasons: the Braves let Jones go and the Braves lost the 1996 World Series.

Had Andruw Jones stayed in Atlanta with Chipper Jones, I think not only would have Andruw performed better, but people wouldn't look at him as a washed-up has-been. They'd see him as a second staple to the team. A veteran around whom they could depend for production and mentorship of young players.

Yes, Jones brought a good deal of this on himself by sucking in L.A. If he had played well, he may have found a home there and been over 500 home runs by now, but that ridiculous contract made fans doubt him from the get go and provided so much pressure on him that he cracked.

Now, after 12 seasons with the same team, he has played for four teams in four years and how many Hall of Famers do you know that bounced around that often from age 30 to 34? Maybe from ages 36-40. That's why Jones is considered older than he is. Teams refuse to keep him around.

The second reason I mentioned, the Braves' loss in the 1996 World Series, is a bit more subtle. Jones might have been the MVP of the series. He hit 2 home runs in his first two at-bats, but the decrescendo that followed is shocking.

Had the Braves won and Jones been crowned MVP, the bar would have been set very high, but that would have been an accomplishment for a Hall of Fame-caliber player to hang their helmet on. Instead, Jones and the Braves were ultimately a disappointment in that series as the Braves lost to the Yankees in six games and while he played well over the next decade, his best moment was so early in his career that he can hardly be viewed as anything other than a disappointment.

Had the Braves not brought him up in 1996, perhaps the expectations would have been lower and his career could be viewed more objectively, but that isn't the case.

Now in 2011, Jones plays for the Yankees, the team that denied his 19-year-old self a World Series title. The Yankees have a shot to take another trip to the World Series. Does Jones have a shot at redemption? Could a few well placed balls in the seats remind the world that this Gold Glove outfielder is not to be ignored? Could he find a home in New York for five years, resulting in more frequent playing time and a chance to take a run at 500 home runs? Don't count on any of it.

A far more likely scenario is that Jones may find a home in New York for another season, but he'll likely be shipped off to a team needing some pop from the right side (Minnesota) or a team that just likes to hit balls into the seats (Toronto). Both would be nice homes for Jones where the fans would know what to expect: a solid veteran player with a good glove that hits home runs and strikes out.

Is that type of player a Hall of Famer? No. But he is still valuable. Is the player who hit 368 home runs and won 10 Gold Gloves in 12 seasons for the Atlanta Braves a Hall of Famer? He certainly should have been.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 1:03 PM | Comments (3)

August 26, 2011

Foul Territory: Pro's, Probes, and Problems

* A Three-Pointer's Not the Only Thing He's Nailed — Kim Kardashian married former New Jersey Net Kris Humphries in a lavish ceremony at an exclusive Montecito, California estate on Saturday. It was a union between an athlete who did nothing as a Net and a socialite who did everything on the 'net.

* Guilty Until Proven Guiltier, or Gravity Search, or Putting the "Pro" in Probe — The University of Miami is investigating the eligibility of 15 athletes who may have received illegal benefits from booster Nevin Shapiro. You could say an investigator looking in to the allegations is much like a Hurricane athlete taking an exam, in that both already "know the answers."

* Peyton's Displace, or Neck Tied — The Indianapolis Colts signed Kerry Collins on Tuesday, an indication that Peyton Manning may not be ready for the season opener on September 11th as he recovers from offseason neck surgery. Once informed of the possibility of having Collins start in his stead, Manning upgraded his rehabilitation from "diligent" to "furious," then displayed the fruits of his efforts by tilting his injured neck as he knocked back a bottle of Gatorade.

* Tim Tebow's Going to Hell (Because if He Goes Any Lower on the Depth Chart, He'll Meet Satan) — Denver Broncos head coach John Fox officially named Kyle Orton the starting quarterback, while Tim Tebow looks to be the third-stringer behind Brady Quinn. Somehow, it sounds much more impressive when New England's Brian Hoyer boasts that he's "Brady's backup."

* Charity Case-O, or Can We Reasonably Assume That Questionable Hits on Ochocinco Are Now Free? — Chad Ochocinco said he will pay the $20,000 fine levied against Tampa Bay rookie linebacker Mason Foster for a hit on Ochocinco in the Bucs/Patriots game on August 18th. Commissioner Roger Goodell, whom Ochocinco called "Dad" in a tweet, said he's been overwhelmed by similar offers from other players willing to "pay" for a hit on Ochocinco.

* Black Hole, Son, or His Chances of Becoming a Good Quarterback in Oakland Are Terre(B)le — The Oakland Raiders used a third-round pick in Monday's NFL supplemental draft to select Terrelle Pryor. Pryor won't be able to play or practice until he serves the five-game suspension handed down by the NFL last week. In the meantime, Pryor is expected to contribute in the Raiders merchandising department, where his experience in moving jerseys will come in handy.

* Burress is Thankful For Mark Sanchez's Itchy Trigger Finger, But Not His Own — New York Jets wide receiver Plaxico Burress caught a touchdown pass in the Jets 27-7 win over the Bengals on Sunday night, then bowed to an appreciative Meadowlands crowd. Burress had three catches for 66 yards and the score, making it the first time he's "went off" since November 28, 2008.

* Giving Aural, or High and Inside — St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday had to leave Monday night's game against the Dodgers after a moth got stuck in his right ear. Trainers used a pair of forceps to remove the moth, which was still alive. Holliday's inner ear trouble unofficially made Monday night "Matt Holliday 'Bobblehead' Night" at Busch Stadium.

* Get the "H" Out Of Here! Crist is Notre Dame's Quarterback?! — Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly named senior Dayne Crist as the Irish's starting quarterback, beating out sophomore Tommy Rees. Crist has fought back from two major knee injuries, but said that won't limit him, especially since, due to a strong Catholic upbringing, he's got a "Canon" for an arm.

* Speed Demon-ized — Kyle Busch had his driving privileges revoked for 45 days as a result of his speeding charge on May 24. Busch was busted going 128 in a 45 mph zone in Mooresville, NC. He was also fined $1,000, given one-year of probation, handed a suspended 30-day jail sentence, and also ordered to complete 30 hours of community service. Ironically, Busch said he was in "no hurry" to complete the terms of his sentence.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:55 PM | Comments (0)

August 25, 2011

Mike Flanagan, RIP: Why?

The early morning-after speculation proved true. Suicide. And those with direct and indirect interest, his actual and his baseball family alike, must wonder. What drove Mike Flanagan — once a tenacious but abundantly-humorous Baltimore Orioles pitcher, eventually a team coach, broadcaster, and executive who withstood the heat in and for Peter Angelos's chameleonic kitchen — to leave himself with a bullet in his head, to be found dead on a trail of his property at 59.

What drives a man who knew himself, laughed at himself, analyzed where others might condemn, thought where others might explode, and taught a proud city bedeviled by its once-proud baseball team's failures and foibles to bear with it in good or at least fatalistic humor, not just to his own death but to make it difficult, if not impossible, to identify him right away? The Orioles, past and present, would love to know.

"Mike was such a unique guy, talented, witty, funny," said Jim Palmer, Flanagan's Hall of Fame rotation mate. "You are not ready to lose someone like Mike Flanagan. But on the other side, I feel lucky to be part of the organization and have had him as a friend and a confidant and buddy, and see all facets of him."

"Mike made a point of making me feel welcomed from day one," says current manager Buck Showalter. "I always looked forward to him coming in and sitting down and drinking coffee with me, and not only talking about baseball but talking about life. He was a passionate man about the Orioles and family, and he impacted a lot of people's lives, not just by the way he pitched but [as] someone our organization has always been proud of not only for the way he pitched but the way he treated people."

As a left-handed pitcher, Flanagan brandished one of the league's outstanding curve balls and a cheerful insouciance about his work. He embraced the legendary Oriole Way whole-hogger, but he could make even crusty Earl Weaver stop dead before laughing in a simple pitching drill. The story is that a young Flanagan was working on holding runners and preventing theft, something once a problem for him, when Weaver broke into a run and hollered, "I just stole second on you!" Flanagan, deadpan, answered, "How'd you ever get on base?"

"It's just shock right now," said Flanagan's one-time catcher, Rick Dempsey. "I know everybody on that team loved him to death."

As a team executive vice president and (for seven seasons) its co-general manager, long after his retirement from the mound (where he'd also pitched three of his eighteen seasons for the Toronto Blue Jays), Flanagan bucked up, bore up, and took perhaps a little too much heat over front-office failures not necessarily of his own making. He strained to understand the chameleonic Angelos and his other minions and took hits. He strained to make sense of the nonsensical, as the Orioles devolved from one of the American League's most admirable franchises to one of its running gags, and though his public face remained one that threatened to break into a soft gotcha or a winking shaft of wise wit there may have lain a deepening storm behind it.

Reporting later Thursday indicated Flanagan was hounded by financial issues. But prowl around elsewhere and few may buy that as readily as another theory: that Flanagan took the Orioles' collapse harder than most. He wasn't the most famous or fabled Oriole; his stubborn insistence on pitching through pain turned what might have been a stellar career into a mere good one. He wasn't nearly as recognizable as Cal Ripken or Eddie Murray, but he may have taken the Orioles' striking highs and staggering lows with equal passion.

Some have even suggested Flanagan blamed himself for the Orioles' devolution even more ardently than some foolish Oriole fans blamed him, or at least held him accountable. Maybe they mistook a stand-up man–which is exactly what Flanagan was, in all his Oriole roles, whether trying to make sense of Rafael Palmeiro's suspension or Sammy Sosa's invisibility, whether trying to understand Alan Wiggins's furies or why stout men such as Sam Perlozzo or Lee Mazzilli couldn't make use of what little they were provided–for the man in charge.

And maybe the customarily self-aware Flanagan believed it, too, enough not to listen to anyone trying to convince him otherwise.

He could win a Cy Young Award with brains as much as repertoire. He could win big American League Championship Series games; he could grin and bear with the best of them during horrible losses. (Perhaps it was the gods looking kindly upon him that he was traded to Toronto after 1987, just in time not to be part of the Orioles' 1988-opening 21-game losing streak.) He could pitch through enormous pain on behalf of allowing Oriole pitchers with less pain tolerance than his the chance to heal; he could even demonstrate illegal pitches in spring training yet refuse to even think about using them during game competition.

Flanagan once buttonholed Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post. The defending Cy Young winner held up a clean, new baseball, put three equal inch-long scars into one side of the meat with a coat hanger, and mused, "That's much more than a real scuffballer would need. God, Gaylord Perry or Tommy John could make this ball sing 'The Star Spangled Banner.'"

He threw to Dennis Martinez, whom he'd invited mischievously to have a catch, and quipped, "Any time I want four new pitches, I got 'em because I can make a scuffed ball break in, out, up, or down ... You hold the ball with the scuffed side opposite to the direction you want it to break. It takes no talent whatsoever. You just throw it like a mediocre fastball. The scuff gives the break."

Then, after kidding about himself as an older, thought-to-be-fading former star making a "mysterious" comeback with that repertoire, Flanagan grew serious and explained why he wouldn't do it in an actual game, spring exhibition or otherwise. "I can understand why they do it, and I can't swear that I won't ever do it, but I still hate it," he told Boswell, after waxing against suspected scuffers in Seattle (led by Rick Honeycutt and Glenn Abbott, allegedly) and Oakland. (Where Billy Martin reputedly taught his splendid young rotation the scuffers as soon as possible, and you might "see the bottom falling out of pitches from guys who never had a super sinker or a great screwball before.") "When I was hurt three years ago, I got to a point where I actually took the mound thinking I'd cheat that day. But I couldn't bring myself to do it. I thought, 'If you'll do this now, just to have a little better chance to win, what won't you do eventually?' I guess I just felt too conspicuous out there." To whom? "Myself, I guess."

A man with that kind of integrity, even when he develops or has been handed the keys to the short or at least the sneaky cut, is a man who just might take his chosen employer's fortunes seriously enough to let the worst of them tear his insides apart. Just enough that nothing else and nobody else, not even a loving wife and loving daughters (one of whom, incidentally, was America's fourth in vitro fertilisation and birth), can lead him to their healing.

And again the question will be asked–by his former teammates, by his chosen employers' incumbent personnel, but especially by his wife, who was out of town and last spoke to her husband at 1 AM Wednesday, ending the conversation with a promise to talk of what troubled him the following day — about this decent, witty, quietly passionate man, the third member of Baltimore's last World Series winner to die, whose suicide is as baffling for now as his curve ball once was for many a healthy season.

Why?

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 5:47 PM | Comments (0)

August 24, 2011

A September to Remember

Johnny Mathis only had it half correct when he sang about Christmas being "the most wonderful time of the year." He forgot to mention college football season.

With the opening games less than two weeks away, it's time to get really excited about the prospects for a great year. (I say "really" because if you're a diehard college football fan, you've been just plain excited for about six months.) And, as with any year, looking at the number of potential early season "BCS-busting" matchups is always fun.

Scanning the first month of the season alone, I see no less than 11 games of interest to watch, and there are quite a few others that are intriguing. But, in the interest of time and space (and reader attention), I'll just focus on the 11 matchups between teams ranked in the preseason top 25 Coaches Poll.

Sept. 3: #3 Oregon vs. #4 LSU (@ Dallas)

The season starts with a bang as the defending national runners-up Ducks take on a team that many think could be in the BCS title game this year. The two teams meet for the first time since 1977, when the "O" was known as the Oregon Sucks, so there's no revenge factor for either side. Well, I guess the Ducks would like to beat an SEC team to avenge their BCS loss to Auburn last year, but other than that... Anyway, watching the Oregon offense go against LSU's defense, and seeing how LSU's offense will fare against a depleted Oregon defense will make this game quite interesting.

Sept. 3: #7 Boise State vs. #22 Georgia (at Atlanta)

After being much maligned over the past few years, Broncos get another chance to quiet their doubters when they meet Georgia. These teams have met only once before, when the Bulldogs tamed the Broncs 48-13 back in 2005. If BSU can get the win in a partisan Georgia Dome (so much for neutral field), it will go a long way toward establishing them as a potential BCS title team. Of course, that is if they can get through their MWC schedule unscathed. Regardless, the blue and orange will always have to answer to their detractors, even if they beat Georgia by three touchdowns.

Sept. 10: #2 Alabama @ #25 Penn State

The Tide will try to make it two in a row against the everlasting Joe Pa and his Nittany Lions in Happy Valley. Last year, the Tide rolled 24-3 in Tuscaloosa and I'm not expecting an upset by the home-standing Lions this year. Maybe this isn't the greatest match-up on paper, but seeing my two childhood favorites and the schools with the classiest uniforms go at it is always a treat.

Sept. 10: #12 South Carolina at #22 Georgia

I'm not sure who to feel sorry for more, the Gamecocks or the Bulldogs. Georgia has to come back from their Boise State game to take on another ranked team, and in a conference game nonetheless. But if the Bulldogs happen to lose to BSU, they'll be plenty fizzed and ready to take out their frustrations on someone. With that in mind, they should be thankful they didn't schedule Coastal Carolina until after this week. Just ask Virginia Tech about that. But I digress...

Sept. 10: #19 Auburn vs. #20 Mississippi State

What's with the SEC scheduling all these monster games at the beginning of the season? Seems to be that way every year, but that's because they can't help it. If you were that loaded from top to bottom, you'd have trouble scheduled junk games, as well. Anyway, the defending national champs hope the loss of Cam Newton and Nick Farley won't be that impactful, and they'll get to find out against the Bulldogs early on. Last year, the Tigers squeaked by with a 17-14 win, so it will be interesting to see how they fare with a different set of stars at home. Add to that the fact that the winner will have the early upper hand in the SEC West, and this should be a whale of a game.

Sept. 15: #4 LSU @ #20 Mississippi State

Okay, so who decided that the Bulldogs should have to play the national champions, and then turn around five days later and play the conference favorites? Talk about a brutal schedule. Meanwhile, LSU must've seen this one coming, since they scheduled FCS Northwestern State the previous week. It's a good thing for MSU that this is a home game, but depending on the outcome of the Auburn game, it could be a nightmare waiting to happen. But the Dawgs do have the revenge factor on their side, after their 29-7 loss to LSU last year. Oh, and by the way, did you notice that this is another huge SEC game in the first three weeks of the season?

Sept. 17: #1 Oklahoma @ #5 Florida State

Last season, the Sooners had no problem whipping up on the Seminoles 47-17 in Norman. This year, though, FSU is much improved and they get their revenge game at home. Aside from the Oregon/LSU game, this is the early season match-up everyone is waiting for, and with Oklahoma having the #1 target on their heads, the 'Noles will come ready to play. This should be a great one.

Sept. 17: #17 Michigan State @ #18 Notre Dame

Last season's game between these schools was an epic 34-31 overtime game, won by Michigan State on a fake field goal. This year, the Fighting Irish will have the advantage of the game being at home and the motivation of revenge, and they're a much better squad than they were last year. Well, maybe not better, but much more experienced. The Spartans are missing a few vets from last year's squad, but they always come ready to play the Golden Domers. This could be another epic game.

Sept. 24: #1 Oklahoma vs. #21 Missouri

Who could forget the excitement of last year's 36-27 upset by the Tigers in Columbia? I'm sure the Sooners haven't and are ready to get back to their dominant ways over Mizzou. This could be a pretty good game but, with it being played in Norman and Oklahoma being a favorite to win it all this year, it could also become one of those forgettable routs.

Sept. 24: #2 Alabama @ #14 Arkansas

Once again, another huge matchup in the SEC. Last season, the Tide eked out a 24-20 decision in Tuscaloosa, but the Razorbacks are hoping home field advantage will be just that — an advantage. However, their non-conference scheduled doesn't exactly get them battle-tested for this game. Missouri State, New Mexico, and Troy (no disrespect to any of these schools) aren't exactly up to par with the likes of Alabama. There will be a huge difference in game speed between their first three opponents and this one. But it should be another SEC knockdown, drag out fight for supremacy in the stacked SEC West.

Sept. 24: #8 Oklahoma State @ #9 Texas A&M

With a slimmed-down schedule in the Big 12 and no conference championship at the end of the season, this game could decide who wins the conference if Oklahoma slips up. The winner of this game should have the upper hand in challenging the Sooners later in the season, especially if the Cowboys win. They'll get their in-state rival at the end of the year, whereas the Aggies will face Oklahoma the week after meeting Missouri midseason. Either way, this game could be important down the stretch.

Posted by Adam Russell at 5:05 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 23

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kyle Busch — Busch took the lead at Michigan with 12 laps to go, then fought off Jimmie Johnson during a green-white-checkered finish to win the Pure Michigan 400. It was Busch's series-best fourth win of the year, and he took sole possession of the points lead, and now leads Johnson by 10.

"I clinched a spot in the Chase For the Cup," Busch said. "That makes me the first to do so this year. That fact supports my motto to 'Stay one step ahead of the competition, and an arm's length away from Kevin Harvick and Richard Childress.

"Many are calling this the 'new' Kyle Busch. I'd prefer the previous version not return. Of course, if I start the Chase as the favorite and a points lead and fail to win the Sprint Cup, then I guess the 'old' Kyle will have returned."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished second at Michigan, coming up short in a late battle with Kyle Busch for the win. It was Johnson's third straight top-10 finish, and he moved up to second in the Sprint Cup point standings, 10 behind Busch.

"Everyone is calling Busch the favorite to win the Sprint Cup championship," Johnson said. "But I think it's wide open. There are eight to 10 drivers who could win the Cup. But only one who will.

"It remains to be seen whether Kyle can hang with the five-time champ in the Chase. There's a not-so-fine line between being 'No. 1' and 'no one.' The way I see it, until you're the former, you're the latter."

3. Carl Edwards — Edwards tumbled from the Sprint Cup points lead after early electrical problems sent the No. 99 Aflac Ford to the garage. After losing 28 laps for repairs, Edwards eventually finished 36th, and fell to fourth in the standings, 39 behind Kyle Busch.

"What can electrical problems do to a points lead?" Edwards asks. "Make it not current. Carl Edwards not in the points lead? That's a shocker. Luckily, my tumble down the points standings is made more tolerable by knowing I just signed a fat, new contract. Surprisingly, cold, hard cash makes for a soft landing.

"You may have heard my animated character appeared on the Disney cartoon 'Kick Buttowski.' Jack Roush's character appeared, as well, representing a car owner who goes to extreme lengths to keep his driver happy. He's called 'Kiss Buttowski.'"

4. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led the way for Roush Fenway Racing at Michigan, finishing tenth as David Ragan took 12th and Greg Biffle finished 20th. Carl Edwards was slowed by electrical problems and finished 38th, falling out of the points lead.

"It was an up-and-down day for RFR," Kenseth said. "I finished 10th, but Biffle finished a middle-of-the-pack 20th despite leading 86 of 203 laps, while Edwards suffered major electrical issues in finishing 36th. Is Boris Said still looking for Biffle's address? Here's a clue: the street name is not Victory Lane. As for Edwards, he's gone downhill since signing his contract extension. He's down to No. 4 in the points standings after leading the way for most of the year. I guess we should start calling him 'Fourth Cousin Carl.'

"Did you notice my No. 17 with the Kroger paint scheme? That may have been the first time anything associated with Matt Kenseth has been described as colorful. It sure would have been funny had Clint Bowyer's No. 33 car, sponsored by Cheerios and Hamburger Helper, would have 'got into' my Kroger car."

5. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led 50 laps at Michigan, second to Greg Biffle's 86, and finished sixth, his 11th top-10 result of the year. He moved up one spot to sixth in the point standings and trails Kyle Busch by 60.

"The car was at its best while leading," Gordon said. "By the way, in addition to my Sprint Cup titles, I'm a four-time champ at stating the obvious."

6. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished a mediocre 22nd in the Pure Michigan 400, his fifth result outside the top 10 in the last six races. He is third in the Sprint Cup point standings, 39 behind rival Kyle Busch.

"The No. 29 Budweiser car has not been impressive lately," Harvick said. "I've told my crew in so many words that 'This Bud's Forgettable.'

"What this team needs in a complete turnaround. One provided by me, while in the car, and not one issued by Kyle Busch, while I'm not in the car."

7. Kurt Busch — Busch finished 34th at Michigan, suffering a tire pressure problem that sent him into the wall on lap 197. Busch's two worst finishes have come in the last two weeks, and he dropped two places to eighth in the point standings.

"That's two DNFs this year," Busch said. "Three if you count my feud with Jimmie Johnson.

"Now, my brother Kyle's ascension to the points lead will make for an interesting Busch family dynamic in the Chase. There will be Kyle, everyone's favorite, and me, no one's favorite."

8. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski remained NASCAR's hottest driver, finishing third at Michigan to validate August 7th's win at Pocono and last week's runner-up finish at Watkins Glen. He improved two spots to 12th in the Sprint Cup point standings, and solidified his wild card standing for the Chase.

"It looks like I'll be joining Tony Stewart and Denny Hamlin," Keselowski said, "when we all three limp into the Chase."

9. Ryan Newman — Newman posted his eighth top-eight finish of the year, coming home fifth in the Pure Michigan. Newman jumped one place in the point standings to seventh, 74 out of first.

"I hear Steven Wallace raised the ire of Patrick Carpentier's team at Montreal on Saturday," Newman said. "So much that Carpentier's crew chief Jerry Baxter reached inside Wallace's car and grabbed a handful of hair to voice his displeasure. I can certainly relate to the reaction of Baxter. I've pulled hair out on account of a Wallace before. That would be Rusty Wallace, and that would be my own hair."

10. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished ninth in the Pure Michigan 400, a solid finish, yet one he was not pleased with. Although he sits 10th in the point standings, Stewart said he be "wasting one of those top-12 spots" the way he's running right now.

"Just to clarify," Stewart commented, "I said 'What a waste,' not 'What a waist.'

"I once had a pet monkey named 'Mojo.' He's missing, but I've replaced him with one I like to call 'Chase Bubbles.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:02 AM | Comments (0)

August 23, 2011

Hines Ward and Head Injuries

Once upon a time, Hines Ward had all the qualities sports fans admire. He was a great player with a well-rounded skill set, a college quarterback turned Pro Bowl wide receiver. He was a fierce blocker at a position known more for divas than physicality. He spent his whole career with one team, and he always played with a smile on his face. What's not to like?

Maybe it was too good to be true. In recent years, Ward has repeatedly been voted the dirtiest player in the NFL, a dishonor normally reserved for defensive players, or the occasional offensive lineman. He was arrested for drunk driving, failing multiple field sobriety tests and refusing to take a breathalyzer. And he has been the league's most vocal advocate against protecting players from head trauma. Ward even admitted that he has lied to doctors after suffering concussions.

"I've lied to a couple of doctors saying, 'I'm straight, I feel good,' when I knew I'm really not straight. But I don't think guys really about the future when they're playing currently in the NFL." That's exactly why the NFL needs standards in place to protect players from head injuries: because they won't protect themselves. The drive to battle through those things is probably part of what makes them great players, but it's not in their own best interests.

The evidence strongly suggests that head trauma has a profound effect on players after their football career have ended. To take two recent examples, consider Jim McMahon and Corwin Brown. McMahon, the quarterback of the 1985 Bears team that went 18-1 and won Super Bowl XX 46-10, is one of seven former players suing the NFL for not doing enough to protect athletes from head injuries. McMahon, who admits to memory loss, said that during his playing career, “It was just tape an aspirin to your helmet and you go back in.” A separate group, including O.J. Anderson, Mark Duper, and Rodney Hampton, filed a similar suit in July.

Corwin Brown was a player and coach, in both the NCAA and NFL, for 21 years. Earlier this month, he was hospitalized with a self-inflicted gunshot wound following a standoff with police and SWAT personnel. Brown's family released a statement reading, in part, "We believe Corwin is suffering from symptoms similar to those experienced by the late Dave Duerson and were caused by the many notable collisions during Corwin's career in the NFL. For those reasons, Corwin chose to not disclose his symptoms, as he did not want to bring shame to any coach, team, organization, or the NFL. We can no longer remain silent and we believe it is important that his former teams, teammates, coaches, and the NFL to understand the severity of this situation."

Duerson, a four-time Pro Bowler and a teammate of McMahon's on the '85 Bears — not exactly a team known for being soft — shot himself in the chest earlier this year, asking that his brain be used for research into chronic traumatic encephalopathy caused by his football career. Three months later, neurologists at Boston University confirmed Duerson's suspicions: he was diagnosed post-mortem with CTE, a neurodegenerative disease linked to concussions.

That's all in 2011. Go back further, and there are dozens more examples, some more concrete than others. Among them are Hall of Fame center Mike Webster, whose case Terry Bradshaw has tried to raise attention to via his position at FOX, and former Patriots linebacker Ted Johnson, a three-time Super Bowl champion during the Bill Belichick dynasty.

Hines Ward, the lifelong Steeler, isn't persuaded by Bradshaw and Webster. Ward, the guy who lies to doctors, doesn't buy into the findings from research on the brains of guys like Chris Henry and Duerson. Ward, who chose to drive drunk, also chose to play football after suffering concussions. But maybe he's not the best judge of what's safe.

Since no one is forcing you, let's not make any efforts to protect player safety. These guys know the risks, right? Honestly, I don't think most of them do. Certainly Ward doesn't understand, and his extremely poor judgment on a variety of topics reinforces the idea that maybe he should stop taking hits after he's gotten a concussion. Too many NFL players suffer concussions, and too many of them bear the ill effects after their playing careers are over. That's something the league can address without radically changing the game, and it's something that needs to be taken care of. Punchy, macho blowhards like Ward need to be protected from themselves, and if their brains are too beat up for them to understand that, the league needs to step in. Concussions and other head injuries will only become a bigger issue over time.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 6:29 PM | Comments (5)

Crosby's Return Tempered By Marc Savard's Situation

A few weeks ago, the rumor mill churned with the idea that Sidney Crosby might not be ready for Pittsburgh Penguins training camp.

You remember Sidney Crosby, right? Stanley Cup Champion, Hart Trophy winner, captain of the Penguins, and quite possibly the best player on the planet? The same guy who was on a career pace for points and goals when two knocks to the head put him on injured reserve for the latter half of the 2010-11 season.

The good news is that Crosby is doing his regular summer training routine. The iffy news is that he hasn't been cleared for contact drills yet. Whether that's a function of it being August or doctor's precautions, we really don't know. All we can tell is this: Crosby's better than he was six months ago, though he may not be 100%.

So, will he or won't he be back in time for training camp? The most sensible answer to that question is this: it doesn't matter, he should be ready whenever doctors tell him he's ready. We've seen the devastating effects of concussions on athletes that come back too soon, both in the short term and the long term. Marc Savard has unfortunately become the poster-child for concussion issues. Savard rushed back before he was ready, then had two stints of fairly ineffective play. Since then, he's been on the shelf battling the symptoms of post-concussion syndrome: dizziness, depression, memory problems, and more. Ask Savard and he'll say he came back too early, that his body wasn't physically ready for another big hit.

It's the type of cautionary tale that has defined this summer for Crosby. The training is there, and if he's like other concussion victims, there's a good chance that Crosby will be strengthening his neck and core in particular to prevent the whiplash effect upon impact — one common way to get a concussion. But in terms of jumping on the ice, taking hits, driving the net, and grinding in the corners, the questions are still there.

No one has stated in particular that Crosby won't be ready for training camp and the pre-season. It's just that they haven't confirmed that he will be there, which, of course, makes the rumor mill run rampant otherwise. While Penguins fans are anxious to see their captain return, there's no point in rushing him just to meet the milestone of Game 1. Marc Savard is evidence of that.

Instead, as frustrating as it is, this should be dictated by doctors, not by coaches, GMs, or Crosby's own competitive drive. The goal is to think big picture – perhaps another one, two, or three months means that Crosby will have a healthy trip through the rest of his career because he took the appropriate steps to recovery. You can bet that Savard, the Boston Bruins, Savard's friends and family, all of them wished he didn't rush to return. All that's done is put him into a more vulnerable position. Could an additional three or six months of rehab, conditioning, and recovery had given Savard the necessary shields for a safer career? No one knows, but one has to think that it wouldn't hurt.

If doctors clear Crosby for training camp contact, then all the more power to him. But you can bet that everyone involved understands that this isn't just another player; this is the face of the franchise and the league's marketing initiative. A few months of safety is acceptable if the result is good health for years to come.

Posted by Mike Chen at 4:55 PM | Comments (0)

August 22, 2011

Running to Daylight

Mark Herzlich did not belong. Of the nation's top 25 football prospects attending the 2011 NFL draft, he no longer deserved that status. Not always so, three years earlier as a Boston College junior he was a first team All-American, ACC Defensive Player of the Year, and a Butkus Award finalist as the nation's best collegiate linebacker. A star in the making after leading his team with 110 tackles, 6 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles, he projected as a first round draft pick. Then, on May 14th 2009, things changed.

Complaining of pain and swelling in his left leg, doctors discovered a large tumor resulting from Ewing's sarcoma a rare and highly malignant form of bone cancer. Afflicting just two out of every million people younger than 30, Herzlich was given a 70-percent chance of survival and a zero percent chance of ever playing football again.

While the first prediction was based on a coldly accurate medical diagnosis, the second decided by the will of an indomitable athlete was unknowable by even the most advanced of tests. But proving doctors wrong in returning to the game he loved, Herzlich would need to first defeat the opponent threatening his life. And in vowing to leave the darkness of his disease behind, the linebacker whose name means "from the heart" has been running to daylight ever since.

In the summer of 2009, Mark Herzlich was no longer a stud linebacker on the eve of an NFL career. In the hospital five days a week undergoing six months of chemotherapy, four weeks of radiation, and a hip-to-knee bone-strengthening titanium rod implant, he was not fighting for athletic glory. The once invincible warrior in shoulder pads was now fighting for his life.

And fight he did. After the cancer diagnosis, "Why me?" was quickly replaced with the same never give up, never quit determination that had served him well on the gridiron. Throughout the struggle after losing his hair, his energy, his strength, and his sense of invulnerability, he never lost his dream of resuming his football career. And he never lost his sense of humor either in describing the lump in his leg as "a pain in the ass."

Such a positive and relentless attitude was not lost on his college coach who said that his "will to fight exactly mirrors what you see on the football field." Patriot linebacker Tedy Bruschi offered that Herzlich was more interested in the next challenge than in talking about what happened to him. And that next challenge of returning to the field gave him the strength to endure the fears, the doubts, and the chemical and radiological poisons leading to a cancer-free pronouncement four months after all seemed hopeless.

Sitting out the 2009 season, Herzlich was finally cleared to return to action as a senior. Perhaps doing too much too quickly, he suffered a stress fracture in his right foot which slowed his progress. Making only three preseason practices, he played his way into shape only to break his hand in the fourth game. Yet despite missing an entire year, despite the physical toll of his bout with cancer, and despite injuries, Herzlich started all 13 games, was third on the team in tackles, and won the Brian Piccolo and Rudy awards for exemplary courage and character.

As the NFL draft approached, Mark Herzlich had done all he could to realize his dream of playing professional football. Yet still it was not enough. Projected in mock drafts to be selected anywhere from the third to the seventh rounds, his name was never called.

No longer viewed as an elite athlete, in the dollars and cents world of the National Football League, an elite heart in and of itself meant little. And though not being drafted was "a disappointing and tiring day," the snub only fueled his competitive fires. Said Herzlich, "I have been told that I can't play football before [and] we all know what happened with that." Confidently speaking to general managers after the draft he added, "If you want a player who plays hard for you and never complains, and does everything the right way for 10 years, then I'm your guy."

Even seen as damaged goods, on history alone Herzlich would have been selected from the pool of free agents shortly after the draft. Yet because of the NFL labor lockout, he was forced to wait three months and wonder which team would take a chance on him. And when that chance came on July 26th, it was from the New York Giants.

Nobody can predict the ending of what until now has been a feel good story. Football is a brutal sport and a no less brutal business. It's one thing to be invited to training camp as an undrafted free agent and another to make the team. It may have helped Herzlich get his foot in the door that both the Giants head coach and owner have ties to Boston College. But in the end, all that matters is the bottom line of performance.

Still, it would be foolish to bet against someone who fought and won against a much tougher foe than ever faced on Sunday. Equally so, it would be foolish to believe that if Herzlich continues running to daylight through the practices of August that another such run won't occur shortly thereafter. And that would be jogging through a tunnel and onto a professional football field come September.

Posted by Neil Bright at 4:35 PM | Comments (5)

A Not-So-Nice Finish

It's difficult to think of any franchise in recent history that canned its general manager officially, but asked him not to leave for almost a month. The Chicago Cubs wanted Jim Hendry to hang around long enough to run the club's draft and get their draftees signed, but they didn't want him making any significant moves approaching the non-waiver trade deadilne.

Figure it out if you can: the Cubs couldn't bear to trust Hendry with the team's present any longer, but they were willing to trust him once more with the team's future. Had this been any other franchise — even the formerly snake-bitten Boston Red Sox, prior to the John Henry/Theo Epstein regime — you'd be shaking your heads and reaching for the bourbon bottle.

Or did they? There have been stories seeping forth, ever since Hendry's dismissal was announced at last, that there were teams — contending teams, even — inquiring about some Cubs who do have trade value, and that Hendry all but told them don't even think about it.

The Texas Rangers were interested in Carlos Marmol, his diminishing repertoire notwithstanding. Hendry apparently told the Rangers Marmol was untouchable. The Atlanta Braves had eyes for Marlon Byrd. Hendry apparently told the Braves likewise. Apparently, Hendry's eye — the same eye that once signed Dusty Baker to manage and dealt for Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek, when those two veterans still had enough in the tank to help get the Cubs to within five outs of a World Series — no longer saw what contenders might feed the Cubs in exchange for a few tradable parts.

Once upon a time, Hendry dodged the blame when the Cubs imploded down the stretch, as in 2004, when the Cubs on the field seemed more interested in settling actual or imagined scores than in winning critical games. That's how likable the man was, and still is. Even Cub fans too well accustomed to life among the also-rans, and too well resigned to doing the best they could with what they had, including and especially a round of notoriously bad contracts, were in no big hurry to measure him for a necktie party.

Then Lou Piniella, who managed them to the best record in the National League in 2008 and had them in first place in August 2009, before Milton Bradley went nuclear and turned the clubhouse into a fallout zone, decided he'd had it in 2010. And Hendry made a farce out of finding Piniella's permanent replacement.

It was one thing to name third base coach Mike Quade the interim manager to close 2010 out, which Quade did in style enough, the Cubs having a winning record the rest of the way. It was something else again to have promised Ryne Sandberg a legitimate shot at the permanent job, if he'd only gone down to the farms and managed his way up the system, which is exactly what Sandberg did to positive reviews all around, only to name Quade the permanent manager without giving Sandberg so much as a by-your-leave.

Actually, Hendry is said to have told Sandberg he wasn't "experienced" enough for the gig. The Hall of Famer had only managed in the system for five seasons, including a 2010 in which he stood at the end as the Pacific Coast League's Manager of the Year and championship manager in the bargain.

Sandberg is now performing to similar positive reviews in the system that reared him as a player in the first place, the Philadelphia Phillies. He's making the same rep there that he made managing in the Cub system — a top-of-the-line baseball teacher who also knows how to win while he's teaching. Quade has spent 2011 losing control of his team and losing point after point for moves ranging from dubious to deluded.

In fairness, one of the bad contracts customarily mentioned in the same breath as Hendry wasn't his fault. (Alfonso Soriano, who was then-club president John McDonough's brainchild.) But none stood out as glaringly as the one which blew up in his face once and for all a week before his execution became public.

Hendry went with Carlos Zambrano's pitching potential and, we know now, ignored what has long since been secured as Zambrano's inability to withstand pressure actual or alleged. Bare weeks into the terms of his now-notorious contract extension, Zambrano might have been excused for trying too hard to live up to his new, lucrative deal, if not for ripping the boo-birds as he did so publicly. (He apologized afterward, of course.)

But we know now that Zambrano's best pitching has come mostly when there's little enough to pitch for, when the Cubs aren't anywhere near contention. And we know now that Zambrano, who is by all reports one of the game's genuine good guys off the field, is and has been a time bomb on the field and in the clubhouse who will be remembered only too readily as the guy who got bombed by the Atlanta Braves, threw twice at Chipper Jones for no good reason other than that bombing, got thrown out of the game, and stormed into the clubhouse, cleared out his locker, including his nameplate, and walked off the team.

All that did was probably confirm to the Cubs' administration that they'd made the right call in firing Hendry, even if they left themselves open to question for asking him to hang in until the Cubs' draft was secured while, allegedly, tying his hands for the non-waiver deadline.

Which doesn't look very good for owner Tom Ricketts, who seems to have spent his first two years of Cub ownership analyzing what he has. The word is that he may just be too nice to fire anyone until or unless absolute push comes to absolute shove.

Well, now. A one-time Cub manager was notorious enough for being slightly misquoted as saying that nice guys finish last. It's proven true for Jim Hendry. Without wishing Ricketts to turn all the way into a George Steinbrenner, Cub Country won't stand too long for the same thing proving true in his case. Not even if the Cubs actually do bring Ryne Sandberg back to manage the club in 2012.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:07 PM | Comments (0)

August 19, 2011

Sports Q&A: NFL Mildly Burning Questions

Who would win a fight between Mark Sanchez and Rex Ryan?

Apparently, Sanchez was hopping mad when Ryan came close to benching him last year after a string of subpar efforts. So mad, in fact, that Sanchez aired his feelings in the September issue of GQ (does that stand for Go Quietly) magazine, nearly 10 months after the near-benching.

As for a fight, it would be difficult to predict a winner. Ryan has a decided size advantage, while Sanchez could counter by using his good looks to "glamour" Ryan, a la a vampire on True Blood. However, in the "love-fest" that is the New York Jets, I'm pretty sure the two would end up having intercourse. That would be considered a draw, which makes sense, because neither Ryan nor Sanchez can win the big one.

Will the Titans pony up and make Chris Johnson the highest-paid running back in the NFL?

It's obvious Titans owner Bud Adams doesn't use his middle finger to write checks. The Titans have stated they are willing to make Johnson the highest-paid running back in the league. Johnson, perhaps, wants to be the highest-paid player in the league. Johnson deserves the former, and not the latter. The two sides should meet somewhere in the middle before Johnson runs away as fast as the fastest player in the league.

What type of impact will Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth have in New England?

If history is any indication, it will be the "Twitter And Quitter" show in Foxboro. Ochocinco's impact as of late has leaned more towards the social media arena, while Haynesworth's recent impact has merely been that of the footsteps of an overweight man hitting the ground with earthshaking force.

But Bill Belichick has a way with reclamation projects. Castaway players are much like his wardrobe — he takes used ones and makes them his own. Haynesworth and Ochocinco will be no different. Haynesworth passed his conditioning test on the first try, which is either a testament to Belichick's motivational abilities, or a testament to the simplicity of the Patriots' conditioning test. In any case, Haynesworth will be playing end in the New England defense, which should keep him fat and happy.

Ochocinco will be a reliable, if not a favorite, target of Tom Brady. His greatest contribution, however, may be in his loquaciousness, ready to offer witty sound bites and clever comebacks to the trash talk that is sure to come out of New York for what could very well be three games against the Jets. In addition, he should gain thousands of new followers on Twitter. Hopefully, Ochocinco's social media endeavors won't result in him falling on Belichick's 'Twit' list."

Browns quarterback Colt McCoy spent several days with Brett Favre in Mississippi during the lockout, learning the intricacies of the West Coast offense from the three-time NFL MVP. Was this a learning experience of a lifetime for young McCoy?

Absolutely. McCoy left Mississippi a more knowledgeable quarterback. Wisely, McCoy was careful not to overload his brain with information. Suffice it to say that he, like nearly everyone else, has had his fill of Favre.

But oh how the tables were turned. A person nearly half his age propositioned Favre, and not vice versa. Imagine McCoy's elation when Favre agreed to share with McCoy the wealth of knowledge and experience Favre has culled over his 20-year career. Imagine Favre's surprise when McCoy showed up and Favre realized that voice on the other end of the phone was a male. No matter what the situation, Favre just can't seem to say "no." After talking with McCoy, Favre's acceptance of McCoy's request was one text message to a 24-year-old for which Favre will definitely take responsibility. Favre's legendary generosity was again on display, as he showed McCoy more than most 24-year-old's could expect to see from a 41-year-old.

Can the Jets' Plaxico Burress recapture the form he displayed as a Giant before he spent 20 months in the slammer?

It's not often a player goes from the Giants to the Jets, so let's take a moment to appreciate the magnitude of Burress' situation. Okay, that was fun, and quick, unlike a 20-month stint in the hole. But Burress should be ready. This is his second New York to New York move; his first was going from the Giants to the Oneida Correctional Facility in Rome, New York. So he's staying close to home, and Rome.

Burress will certainly be useful to the Jets cause, especially in red zone situations, but his age (34) and an already gimpy ankle make his durability questionable. He'll contribute, to the tune of 24 catches for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns, but his season will end in November due to a leg injury, albeit not of the self-inflicted type.

Will anything less than a Super Bowl win be considered a failure by the Philadelphia Eagles?

Yes. If Philly fails to at least make it to the Super Bowl, it won't be for lack of talent, it will be fatigue from hearing the words "team chemistry" much too often.

Of course, the Eagles are a Michael Vick pulled hamstring or bruised set of ribs from disaster. That disaster being Vince Young as the backup quarterback. Don't get me wrong, Young is a valuable addition to the Eagles as long as he's not forced into a starting scenario. Young's size and agility could make him useful in goal line situations. Vick will surely lead the Eagles offense into several goal line situations. That's when Young will come into play. As Vick heads to the bench on these occasions, Young enters to try a quarterback sneak. When that fails, he'll try a roll out to his right, and inevitably overthrow the tight end. That's when Vick will re-enter on third and goal to punch it in on a quarterback draw. It's a scenario that will be repeated often for the Eagles.

January 22, 2012. Mark that date on your calendar. That's when the streets of Philadelphia become awash in disgruntled and riotous Eagles fans after the Eagle fall to the Falcons in the NFC championship game.

Who will win the starting quarterback job in Carolina, Cam Newton or Jimmy Clausen?

I'd like to answer by quoting Panthers coach Ron Rivera: "Do I have any other choices?"

No, you don't, Ron. Ironically, this is a quarterback battle that Jake Delhomme would actually have a chance of winning. Sadly, Delhomme is in Quarterback Limbo right now, which is the name of his sports bar in Lafayette, Louisiana.

Newton will get the starting job, but Clausen will perpetually be warming up on the Carolina sideline. Steve Smith goes eight games before his first reception of over 20 yards, and vents his frustration by punching former Panther Stephen Davis.

Eli Manning says he considers himself in the same class as Tom Brady. Is he right?

In an informal poll, nine of 10 NFL players didn't necessarily agree, but said they'd like some of what Manning is smoking.

Manning may believe he's in a class with Brady, but most people, particularly supermodels, disagree. Manning should strive to make more believable proclamations, like saying he's in the same class with Steve Grogan, or Norris Weese, or Philip Rivers (Manning was in the same class with Rivers, although Rivers will be sure to point out it was only a NFL draft class).

You have to admire Manning's confidence and belief in himself. But if you're going to make a statement, go big. He could have done that by claiming he's "in a class by himself." No one would be able to argue with that.

Where will the Dallas Cowboys finish in the NFC East?

According to Washington Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman, not first.

The NFL moved kickoffs from the 30- to the 35-yard line, a change designed to improve player safety by hopefully lessening the impact of high-speed collisions. What effects will the changes have on the game?

I guess we'll see fewer injuries. And practically every kickoff will result in a touchback, unless the Gramatica brothers, the Bahr brothers, and Gary Anderson suddenly return to the NFL.

On the plus side, fans' boredom during kickoffs will be allayed by an increase in touchdown kickoff returns of 108 yards or more.

Will James Harrison threaten to retire again from football?

No, Harrison will have no retirement plans, but he will guarantee that someone will "lay out" this year.

Who will adorn the cover of the Madden NFL 13?

Aaron Rodgers. However, if you look closely at the cover, you can see the image of Tim Tebow.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:43 PM | Comments (2)

August 18, 2011

The Winds of SECession

Just when you thought all the conference talk had died down, a storm of passion rose from the hot Texas sun, bringing the discussion immediately back into the spotlight.

It was a surprise to few that Texas A&M was allegedly looking into leaving the Big 12/Big 12 minus two/Big Texas plus nine other schools, for the greener pastures of the SEC. This was not a decision made in haste; rather it was an announcement of the final straw being broken by their rivals in Austin.

It started in the old Southwest Conference, noted for unequal revenue sharing, massive cheating in the '80s and Texas calling most of the shots. Frank Broyles, then-athletic director at Arkansas, saw the system as a sinking ship and quietly hinted to then-SEC commissioner Roy Kramer that Arkansas was interested in joining if the offer ever came up. In 1990, it did. While Arkansas leaped, A&M and Texas, thought to be potential SEC candidates, blocked each other from admission, and the downfall of the SWC began.

When Texas, A&M, Baylor, and Texas Tech made the move to the Big 12, slowly but surely, some of the bad habits of the SWC started to creep into the new conference. The league office moved from Kansas City to Dallas. Again, unequal revenue sharing gave Texas the biggest piece of the pie and they continued to seize control amongst the conference institutions. Another old-school athletic director, Tom Osborne, couldn't stomach the Texas power grab and made a leap for it, along with Missouri, who had been longing for Big Ten membership for some time. The Huskers got their ticket out, and it's doubtful those in Lincoln are missing their old conference.

The point is simple: don't blame the SEC for stirring the realignment pot. Don't blame Texas A&M for it either. As the old Mark Chestnut song says, "blame it on Texas."

Texas has made the most of their size, statewide and school-wide. Their enormous pockets keep money flowing into Austin with ease. College athletics are a money game and the Longhorns play it well. It's hard to blame them for starting a new $300 million network with ESPN. If the giant sports animal offers you cash and extra publicity, you take it.

However, Texas can't have all the rules tipping in their favor. Unequal revenue sharing, an extra network (which will keep them from Pac-12 waters anytime soon), the ability to have high school recruits on their station and recruits who are undecided to sit and drool at the TV set and the possibilities and pretty much the head seat at the Big 12 table. Think A&M, or any other school, could be a little miffed ... and jealous ... about that?

And with all of that, the majority of A&M fans (and maybe their administration, too) stand ready to make the boldest of decisions. The Aggies are willing to jump off the Texas ship and head into a conference whose road to the NCAA title game is the toughest in college football, just to be able to play on a more level playing field. A school known deeply for tradition seems ready to throw some traditions out the window for a few extra shreds of dignity.

Whether you think it's honorable or stupid, you have to give A&M some credit for taking a stand.

The ball is not in A&M's court, nor the SEC's, nor the Big East, ACC, and Big 10, whose commissioners have apparently been talking together about this issue. It doesn't sit with Missouri, Florida State, or Clemson, who have been rumored as candidates for the SEC, as well. The ball sits firmly in Austin's court. If the Horns want to shake the college football world up, they have the power to do so. If they choose not to, which admittedly would seem odd, given the power and money they could possibly relinquish, they could do that, too.

But it's their call. The eyes of the NCAA are upon Texas.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:20 PM | Comments (1)

August 17, 2011

Holding Back the Emotion

Everyone can exhale. This past weekend, we all got what we wanted ... actual throwing and carrying of pigskins in stadiums across the nation. After a tumultuous offseason that saw a long-feared lockout come to fruition, the NFL management and players shook hands in time to only miss their annual Hall of Fame Game in Canton. The mood for football fanatics is at a fevered pitch as the season closes in.

And with everything back to normal between the sidelines, I've gone back to a relaxed state of mind. Really relaxed. Relaxed to the point of taking a snooze. I think I might take it through the rest of the month, actually. The reason? No matter how long I ache for tackles, tirades, and touchdowns, it's still the preseason.

Now, I'm not saying that the preseason has its purpose. I'm not saying that I won't watch a highlight or two. I'm not saying that I won't catch a few plays if I slide past a broadcast with the clicker. However, I won't seek out games like I do once Labor Day weekend comes and goes.

The biggest example of this could be explained by my decision making. Last week, I saw FOX's promo for last Friday's Bucs/Chiefs broadcast. That made me nod my head for a second, pleased that the team I root for would get a pop on the national stage at a time where most games only serve their local markets. Living in the Twin Cities, it was a chance to see those players that might make an unexpected impact and make the final roster.

And I didn't watch a second of it.

Compare that to any of the weeks containing "for-real" contests, where I'd be lucky to find a Chiefs broadcast on my Dish Network package. In those cases, I make the effort to fire up the Internet and track the KC squad wherever they are. Granted, following dots, Xs, and arrows isn't ideal, but it is better than staying in the dark. The point is, for the regular season, I make the effort.

So, that could make me the bad guy.

'You're the guy that doesn't live and breathe with his team. How could you say you're a fan if you don't even want to know what assets your team could have? How do find those diamonds in the rough if you won't even scour the rough?'

If that's the case, then sure, I'll be the villain. I'll take the hit and not follow every snap that those that I cheer will take until early September. I'm fine with that. It's not my way of punishing the owners for closing the gates on their employees. I'm not protesting the players for drawing a line in the sand that couldn't be crossed for four-plus months. It's just my normal state of mind.

Now, my apathy might have waned a bit if one thing occurred. It's the same phenomenon that happened in 1994, 1998, and 2004.

The MLB strike of 1994 was especially irksome for me. As a young teen in Kansas City, the Royals were my summertime fascination. I wasn't a fixture at games, but I did head out to Royals Stadium (before it was renamed for late owner Ewing Kauffman) to see the likes of George Brett, Frank White, Bo Jackson, Danny Tartabull, Flash Gordon, Mark Gubicza, and Jeff Montgomery. That year, the unexpected Royals had actually fought their way into contention past the All-Star Break. Looking back, they probably would have shrunk under the pressure, but it would have been fun to see.

Nationwide, the Strike took the wind out of baseball's sails. Even though many were relieved to see the game's return in April of 1995, the sport didn't really get a boost for another three years.

Then there was the NBA lockout of 1998-1999. While the predecessor might not compare to its current generation, the previous stoppage basically cut the 1999 campaign in half. An 82-game cruise turned into a 50-game flyover. The breakup of the Michael Jordan-led Bulls dynasty only added to the dampening of many spirits in the stands.

Once the stalemate ended, some of the ticked off fan base came back to watch what actually became the launching pad of one of the next decade's best franchises. Unfortunately, the San Antonio Spurs were not the eye candy that drew in the casual fan (or some "more than casual" observers like myself, sadly). I still maintain that the Association got a bump from the Shaq/Kobe era the following year, but interest might not have really rose until the King James, D-Wade, and 'Melo class got their feet wet in the league.

The biggest example of what could be stripped from the paying customers has to be the NHL Lockout of 2004-2005. The chasm between employer and employee lasted for an entire season. With a large portion of the outfit consisting of European players, several stars of the league went back to their home continent (if not home country) to play in the established pro organizations there.

After all was said and done, their main broadcast outlet (ESPN) had moved on, leaving them to scramble for coverage. While hockey may have scoured out the casual fan, it still held its core base of fans. The money model the NHL is using seems to be taking hold, which might lead to a slower, but stronger growth of attention. However, I still believe that they have yet to fully recover from their lost season.

Pieces are there to help regenerate interest. Original Six franchises have hoisted the Stanley Cup the last two years (Chicago and Boston). Sidney Crosby helped guide the Penguins to their own trophy three years back. But (in my opinion) the fan base will need a healthy Crosby, a title-holding Alexander Ovechkin, and a Canadian winner to boost the buzz even more.

In all three of these previous cases, there was actually something to miss. Whether it be half-season, a playoff push, or an entire campaign, time worked was literally forsaken. And that's what makes this NFL preseason like all others. Save a lack of OTAs and a shortened training camp, everything seems to have come off without a hitch.

So, in my existence of not really paying close attention to the appetizer of the fall, why change now? Don't get me wrong. I'm very happy that the upper brass and workforce got together in time to put a product on the plate. I'll be thrilled to follow the team I root for, whether it be online or on the tube. But calm down, folks. We've still got three weeks until the opening kickoff ... and we've still got football.

Now, if you don't mind, I think I'll take a little August hibernation.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 1:20 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 22

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished a solid 12th at Watkins Glen, Roush Fenway Racing's top finisher in Monday's Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen. Edwards is now tied with Kyle Busch for the lead in the Sprint Cup point standings.

"Should I be worried that I no longer sit alone atop the point standings?" Edwards said. "Of course not. I'm NASCAR's resident pretty boy, and like it or not, I even look good in a 'tie.'"

I hear Boris Said has it out for my Roush Fenway Greg Biffle. Boris said one day soon, a driver will show up at the race track with a black eye. I tend to believe him. Stranger things have happened. Heck, twice a year, a driver shows up at the track with an afro!"

2. Kyle Busch — Busch led 49 of 92 laps at Watkins Glen and was leading on the race's final restart with two laps to go. But both Brad Keselowski and Marcos Ambrose slipped by on the restart, and Ambrose muscled his way to the win. Busch finished third, his series-best 11th top 5 of the year, and is now tied with Carl Edwards atop the point standings.

"M&Ms may simply melt in your mouth," Busch said, "but apparently, leads evaporate altogether in my hands."

How about poor Denny Hamlin, losing his brakes on lap 66 and crashing hard into the turn one wall? He's okay, but with brake issues on top of all the engine problems he's experienced this year, you have to believe there will be some changes with that team. I say it's time for Viagra to return to NASCAR sponsorship, and Hamlin's No. 11 car would be a perfect fit for a product with a proven solution to equipment failure."

3. Jimmie Johnson — After a week of feuding with Kurt Busch, Johnson finished 10th at Watkins Glen, scoring his 13th top-10 finish of the year. Johnson is now third in the point standings, trailing Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch by six.

"So Kurt Busch says he's 'in my head?'" Johnson said. "Well, he's out of his mind. Now he needs to get out of mind. Anyway, I finished 28 places better than he, which just goes to show that Kurt's a punk, and karma's a bitch."

4. Kurt Busch — After winning Saturday's Nationwide race subbing for Penske teammate Brad Keselowski, Busch found the going much rougher during Monday's rescheduled Sprint Cup race. Busch spun out on lap four, then blew a tire and slammed the turn five tire barrier on lap 49. He finished a disappointing 38th, and dropped two places to sixth in the point standings, 40 out of first.

"It's nice to know," Busch said, "that I can get in Keselowski's car and win a race. Especially since I, the former driver of the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge, have witnessed Brad get into my car and win. Twice."

At the Glen, I barely made it to the halfway point of the race. You could say I couldn't 'break a sweat,' which, incidentally, is exactly what Jimmie Johnson said about my fighting ability."

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished sixth at Watkins Glen, posting his first top-10 result since Daytona on July 2nd. Harvick is now fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 14 behind Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch.

"I'm certainly pleased with the result," Harvick said. By no means am I a road course ringer. Now, if I would have been in Boris Said's shoes, I would have been a road course wringer, because somebody would have been choked."

You may have seen me throw out the first pitch at the Angels/Yankees game in New York last week. One thing's for sure: that baseball won't get a ticket for speeding on pit lane. My incident with Kyle Busch at Darlington, coupled with my pitching skill, just goes to show that his right arm can't hit a target, moving or otherwise."

6. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led six laps at Watkins Glen on his way to a 13th-place finish in the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen. He remained seventh in the point standings and is 52 behind Carl Edwards.

"What I finish," Gordon said. "That last lap was a lot like a Kurt Busch radio tirade, because all 'hell' broke loose. And David Reutimann was much like Indy Car driver Will Power at New Hampshire — they both flipped. Of course, Power's middle finger salute to the race officials drew a fine. I guess that's the 'Power' of 'one.' You would never see a Sprint Cup driver flip off NASCAR officials. Not because our manners are any better than Power's, but NASCAR officials don't have a problem not throwing a caution. And they don't need any rain to do it."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth suffered an early setback at Watkins Glen, running out of gas midway through the race, but fought back to come home 14th. He moved up one spot to fifth in the point standings, and is now 28 out of first.

"Thanks to Greg Biffle for the push back to the pits after I ran out of gas," Kenseth said. "According to Boris Said, that's the only 'push back' Biffle's good for. If Biffle does show up for an upcoming race with a black eye, then he'll be the only 'Said head' who's not a member of Boris' fan club."

8. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished 27th, the last car on the lead lap, after his No. 14 Office Depot/Mobil Chevy spun and was hit by another car. Stewart fell one spot in the point standings to tenth, and is 25 ahead of Clint Bowyer in 11th.

"I wouldn't classify my finish as 'Heluva Good,'" Stewart said. "I would, however, classify Boris Said's challenge to Greg Biffle as a 'heluva goad.'"

9. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski nearly captured his second-consecutive win of the year, leading with one to go at Watkins Glen before Marco Ambrose bulled past him. Keselowski settled for second and further solidified his wild card chances.

"Ambrose is the first Australian to win a NASCAR race," Keselowski said. "I say that's 'Aus-some.' He's establishing quite a few milestones. Last year, he became the first Australian to stall his engine while leading the race."

10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. — Earnhardt finished 15th in the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen, joining Hendrick teammates Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon in the top 15. Earnhardt improved one position in the Sprint Cup point standings, and is in ninth with four races before the Chase opener.

"I like my chances to make the Chase For the Cup," Earnhardt said, "if the Chase started tomorrow. Hopefully, I can survive these next four races and maintain my position. One thing's for sure: I won't be winning my way into the Chase."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

August 16, 2011

Joe Posnanski and NFL Tiebreakers

Joe Posnanski is my favorite sportswriter. He's smart and funny, and kind without being saccharine. I wish I could write the way he does; the man is a tremendous storyteller. I write about sports statistics, and it's interesting if you really like stats. Joe writes about sports statistics, and it's interesting if you have a pulse. He's also got a fantastic background in baseball.

There are plenty of writers out there who don't deserve their fame. They got where they are because of connections or good fortune, or one genuinely good work that they've been milking ever since. Joe Posnanski is not one of those. Yeah, he was friends with Buck O'Neil, and he's pals with Bill James and Tom Watson and a bunch of other people. That's because he's a nice person, and he's truly passionate about sports.

All of that is why I'm always let down when Joe writes about football and basketball. For some reason, he doesn't apply the same logic to other sports that he does to baseball. Posnanski is one of those people who, when you talk about clutch hitting in baseball, will mention that it's usually random, that it's not a repeatable skill, that we have better methods to judge performance. But this spring, he bought in completely to the LeBron James narrative. When the Heat were rolling through the playoffs, going 12-3 en route to the NBA Finals, it was because LeBron was the best player in the world. When the Mavericks pulled an upset, it was because LeBron choked, because he doesn't have that Reggie Jackson/Michael Jordan/Joe Montana quality. Come on, really?

When he writes about baseball, Posnanski sets aside subjective judgment:

"What is more likely … the stats are wrong or that three people, who watch the Royals nightly and who you appear to trust, are wrong?" Well, I have absolutely no doubt in my mind: To me, it is much, much, much, much more likely that the people who watch the Royals nightly are wrong. After all, the people I know saw Rick Ankiel play just 27 games with Kansas City (and a few scattered games as a visiting player). The numbers have charted every single game that Rick Ankiel has played in the big leagues. The people have watched Ankiel in the larger context of nine players on the field. The numbers break him out and look at him individually. People, almost without fail, allow any great play or terrible misplay to become outsized. The numbers give credit for the great play, take away credit for the misplay, but don’t let it skew expectations, or blunt whatever happens next.

That's four muches in front of "more likely" there. But when he writes about basketball, Pos sets aside the numbers and gets sucked in by the narrative. Karl Malone's 1996-97 MVP award? Bogus. Sure, Malone had the stats that year, and Jordan didn't, but everyone knew Jordan was the best player. When Jordan, whose team also included Phil Jackson, Scottie Pippen, and Dennis Rodman, won the championship, well that just confirmed it. This is exactly the sort of thing Posnanski resists in baseball, but for other sports, he's in, hook, line, and sinker. How can the same logic that applies to baseball be withheld from other sports? It doesn't make sense.

When he writes about baseball, Posnanski resists conventional wisdom, as when dismissing Thomas Boswell's assertion, "When stats WILDLY contradict common sense, always doubt the stats." Posnanski wrote:

Yes, this seems a solid premise. Only, you know what? It isn't. It is, when you think about it, a horrifying premise — I cannot believe that Tom Boswell, my hero, really believes that. Common sense says that the universe revolves around the earth. Common sense says that thunder clapping means God's angry. Common sense says that when your car is sliding you want to turn your wheel away from the skid. Common sense says that a fast guy with no power who might or might not get on base is the perfect guy to put in the leadoff spot. ... Common sense says a lot of incredibly stupid things and if you are going to automatically choose common sense over, you know stats and facts and results, well, that's a good way to crash into trees and lose your shirt in a card game and get stuck with Omar Moreno.

Common sense says that in a clutch situation, you'd rather have David Eckstein than Barry Bonds. Common sense says that a huge, strong running back is ideal for short-yardage situations. Before this year, common sense said that Dirk Nowitzki couldn't win the big one. Common sense says that Michael Jordan was still better, in 1997, than Karl Malone. Apply these things to baseball, and Joe writes logical and entertaining columns dissecting the flaws in the argument, but switch to another sport, and he's the one promoting the flawed arguments in the first place. It's mind-boggling.

On Friday, Posnanski posted something on his blog titled, Why Hitting Streaks Matter (Sort Of). The premise was that our interest in sports statistics is sort of random, that something like a hitting streak or a 3,000-hits kind of magic number is pretty arbitrary, that these things matter because people are interested in them, but don't necessarily mean much otherwise. And sure, I'll go with that. Look at Brett Favre's consecutive-games record, or Cal Ripken's. By themselves, I don't think those records mean much of anything, but for many people, that's Favre's defining accomplishment. I'm much grumpier and more taciturn than Joe, so this actually sort of bugs me, because I don't think the consecutive-games record makes Favre a better QB than Fran Tarkenton or Bart Starr or Roger Staubach. Maybe he was, but let's argue that on its own merits.

Anyway, one of the examples Posnanski used in his column was the NFL's playoff tie-breaking system. But I think what he wrote about it was totally off-base. First, Joe cited the system as an example of something that has legitimacy because fans say so, when I think the reality is that fans complain every year about the system. And while some of these complaints are perfectly legitimate — conference record is not a sound tie-breaker — others are not. Strength of schedule and point differential (both of which Joe cited as nonsensical) are great tie-breakers, and what's ridiculous is that they're so far down the list.

"We break playoff ties based on puzzling mathematical breakdowns that don't really tell us which team is better. Why is there not intense outrage and mutiny in great American cities when their teams get knocked out of the playoffs even though they have the exact same record as teams in the playoffs? Why should my team's 10-win season be worth less than theirs because of our conference record (come on) or strength of schedule (which we don't control) or point differential (are we supposed to run up scores now?)"

It's true that teams don't control their strength of schedule, but they do control how they perform against the opposition they get, and to suggest that a team that went 10-6 against a .475 schedule is as good as a 10-6 team that played a .525 schedule is absurd. It's probably not as good as a team that went 9-7 against a .525 schedule. This is precisely the kind of tie-breaker we should be using. Just last season, consider the Kansas City Chiefs (who got annihilated in the playoffs), or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who went 10-6 without beating anyone who had a winning record (until a meaningless Week 17 game against the Saints, who had already clinched playoff position).

Point differential is one of the best predictive tools we have for evaluating team strength. Pythagorean winning percentage works in baseball, and it works in the NFL. Hey, no one wants to encourage running up the score. But point differential is the sort of stat that helps you separate the 10-6 Bucs (+23) from the 10-6 Packers (+148). Green Bay actually had the best point differential in the NFC last season, even better than the 13-3 Falcons (+126) or the division champion Bears (+48). This is often an incredibly valuable and telling statistic. Or hey, want to guess who had the best point differential the year before? The New Orleans Saints.

Aren't the tie-breakers designed to help us get the best teams into the playoffs? Strength of schedule and point differential probably are the most meaningful team statistics outside of record itself. If baseball somehow considered run differential (runs scored minus runs allowed) as the new criteria for homefield advantage in the World Series, I imagine Joe would throw a party to celebrate. But the NFL uses the same thing as its fifth tie-breaker (which almost never comes into play, maybe once every four years or something), and it's grounds for criticism. If Joe wants to complain about the NFL's tie-breakers, he should be grumping about how seldom these meaningful figures actually come into play in the tie-break formula.

I'm not trying to complain or criticize so much as to point out inconsistencies in the work of someone who smart enough to understand why he's wrong, humble enough to admit it, and honest enough to correct himself. A throw-away paragraph about NFL tie-breakers isn't life and death. But to people like Posnanski and myself, little things like this matter enough to attract our attention. I've written whole columns on reforming the NFL's overtime rules, pages on how we should evaluate punters, a detailed breakdown of how AFL passing stats support the league's exciting reputation. Joe wrote an imaginary interview with an esoteric fielding statistic. If anyone can appreciate why these things matter to a sports fan like me, it should be Posnanski. The strange things that we decide matter in sports: that's what Posnanski was really writing about on Friday.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:52 PM | Comments (1)

From Spring Training to the Fall Classic

On March 31 of this year, I could hardly contain my excitement. The St. Louis Cardinals were playing their first game the 2011 MLB regular season, and the sports world was almost two months removed from the last great sports event (the Super Bowl).

Opening day in baseball has a magical feel to it. After the deepest lull in the calendar year for sports, fantasy sports are back, and the constant smell of grilled meat is just around the corner.

But that was March 31, and the year won't end until at least late October, and possibly early November. The obvious take-away from this simple breakdown of the MLB calendar is that there could possibly be only three months (December, January, and February) without Major League Baseball.

I love the sport, and I've been known to vehemently argue with those who say it doesn't have enough appeal to be watchable for three consecutive hours. But seriously, does the season really need to be that long?

I understand the basic concept that more games translates to more ticket sales, which creates revenue that flows directly into the pockets of the men who set the MLB schedule. But surely those same men are smart enough to realize (or at least have someone on staff smart enough to realize) that part of the problem that has seen the sport become disenfranchised to the younger generation rests on the fact that the season is simply too long to hold anyone's interest throughout its entirety.

Don't get me wrong, I'm well aware of the fact that many fans avidly follow their teams throughout the Summer (and part of the fall). But even most of those dedicated fans are bound to have at least a dozen instances when they are unaware of the outcome of the previous night's game until they watch ESPN the next morning.

This is a problem — not only because this happens to baseball fans — but because it doesn't happen to football fans. The Cardinals fan in me is fine with checking the box score on many nights; the Chiefs fan in me has to know the outcome of the game as it goes final.

But it doesn't have to be that way. If baseball is willing to really look at the multitude of problems that plague it (and I believe this is the most serious problem), they may just keep fan moral at opening day levels throughout the year.

Some will argue that revenue isn't the only reason to have a long MLB regular season, but they're almost exclusively the hardcore baseball traditionalists who also fail to see the obvious value and upside of instant replay in the sport.

They act like they want to preserve the sport by not changing it, but fail to consider the fact that not changing it could ultimately lead to the sport becoming completely irrelevant.

Regardless of the argument attempted against a shortened baseball season, the fact remains that doing so simply makes too much sense to not happen in the near future. It may result in higher ticket prices, but if we could have six months or less of baseball games, fan interest might end up at an all-time high.

It may not be the way the baseball purists want to see it, and it may put a dent in yearly revenue, but a shortened MLB regular season will eventually happen. And it will change the sport for the better.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 11:41 AM | Comments (0)

August 15, 2011

Eli Manning is Overrated

My colleague Neil Bright recently wrote an article for this site with a very strange premise: Eli Manning is underrated. With all due respect to Neil, this is absurd. Year-in, year-out, Eli is one of the most overrated players in the NFL.

He is one of the most famous and widely-praised QBs of the last decade. He made the Pro Bowl in 2008; I remember people on TV saying that year that he was better than Peyton. It actually seemed like a legitimate argument to some people. Even today, every time Eli has a half-decent game, the media declares that he has turned the corner and should be regarded as an elite quarterback, which is nonsense.

Eli is a solidly average quarterback. He is not top-10, and never has been, but he probably sneaks into the top 16 most years. Pro-Football-Reference.com keeps statistics comparing a player's performance in certain stats to the league average that season. Anything below 100 is worse than average, above 100 is better. By the numbers, Eli is a very average QB:

Completion Percentage: 91
Yards Per Attempt: 98
Touchdown Percentage: 107
Interception Percentage: 95
Sack Percentage: 110

All of those numbers are pretty close to 100. The guy is an average quarterback. For the sake of comparison, here are some other QBs:

Peyton Manning: 119, 114, 118, 106, 123
David Garrard: 104, 103, 98, 111, 92
Jake Delhomme: 97, 105, 103, 94, 106
Eli Manning: 91, 98, 107, 95, 110
Jason Campbell: 100, 96, 93, 110, 94
Tarvaris Jackson: 92, 92, 99, 89, 91

If we weight all the categories equally, Eli comes in about the same as Delhomme or Campbell, and no one pretends those guys are top-10 QBs. Please understand, I'm not saying that Eli is a bad quarterback. An average QB is actually a valuable commodity in the NFL. There are about a dozen teams that would love to trade their starter for the younger Manning. But with as much hype as this guy gets, he's hardly underrated.

However, I hear some of you saying, the numbers above are career figures. Maybe Eli has improved over time. Below are his numbers last season.

Completion Percentage: 107
Yards Per Attempt: 108
Touchdown Percentage: 118
Interception Percentage: 79
Sack Percentage: 125

Indeed, those are better than his career stats, but the number that jumps out is his 79 Int%+. Eli has 32 multi-interception games in his career. Since his rookie season of 2004, only Brett Favre has more. Even famously careless QBs like Delhomme (22), Jay Cutler (20), Jon Kitna (19), and Rex Grossman (10) can't touch Eli in this category. Last season alone, Manning had four games with at least 3 interceptions. Overall INT leaders, from 2004-present:

1. Brett Favre, 127
2. Eli Manning, 113
3. Drew Brees, 101
4. Carson Palmer, 100
5. Matt Hasselbeck, 95

It's basically Favre and Manning, then everyone else. Eli has more picks since '04 than Derek Anderson and Alex Smith combined (108), or all the QBs drafted in the first round in '02 (David Carr, Joey Harrington, and Patrick Ramsey, 103), or all the Kyles in NFL history (Boller, Orton, 1980s backup Kyle Mackey, and half a dozen non-quarterbacks, 96), or a thousand other weird combinations.

Neil pointed out in his column that Eli's interception total spiked last season — he became one of only three active players to throw at least 25 picks in a season — but it was always in the cards that Eli was going to have a season like that. Chance plays a role in interceptions, and in a bad-luck year a gunslinger like Eli is going to throw 20-30 picks. In 2005, his first full season as starter, Manning was second in the NFL in interceptions, behind only Favre, who had the worst season of his career. The next year, he and Favre tied for fourth. The year after that, he tied for the most interceptions in the NFL. 2008 and '09 were better, and last year he led the league again.

This is a guy who has played six full seasons, and in two of them he's led the NFL in picks. In two others, he was in the "top" five. Last year wasn't an aberration; it was entirely consistent with Eli's career.

His almost unparalleled tendency to throw interceptions has always been Eli's biggest problem. But he also seems to save his worst performances for the stretch run. With the exception of his genuinely fine play in the 2007 postseason, when the Giants won the Super Bowl, Manning has consistently played his worst at the end of the season. This is lifted from my Week 14 Power Rankings last season:

Eli Manning has entered his annual cold-weather swoon. This is like clockwork. Every year, Eli Manning plays well in September and October, and people announce with tremendous authority that he has turned the corner and is one of the great QBs in the NFL, sometimes even asserting that he is better than Peyton and sliced bread. Then November rolls around, and Eli turns into Mark Sanchez. This isn't just about weather: Tom Brady plays outdoors, in conditions just as bad, and his passer rating in December (92.8) is the same as in September (93.1). Eli's per-game averages, by month:

Eli's inconsistency is particularly baffling because he has so consistently played on good teams. He's always had a good offensive line. He had an exceptional running back (Tiki Barber), Pro Bowl tight end (Jeremy Shockey), and quality receivers like Amani Toomer, Plaxico Burress, and Steve Smith. Furthermore — and this matters — he's usually had a good defense. A strong defense takes pressure off the quarterback. You don't have to come from behind when the opponent knows you have to pass. You don't have to force a throw if it's not there. You get good field position. Eli has always had a fairly strong supporting cast, and let's not pretend that Ramses Barden and Victor Cruz were going to turn Eli into Aaron Rodgers.

Neil complained in his article that Little Manning didn't make the NFL Network's "Top 100 Players of 2011" list, while Donovan McNabb, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan all did. McNabb is at a strange point in his career, and I don't think anyone really knows what to expect of him in 2011, but I felt like he made the best of a bad situation last year in Washington, and in '09, his stats were very much in line with Eli's. That season, the Eagles finished 11-5. Then they replaced McNabb with Michael Vick and dropped to 10-6. If we all agree that Vick is better than Eli, it seems reasonable to put McNabb around the same level.

Tony Romo, when he's healthy, is a far better quarterback than Eli, and that's so obvious I'm sure Neil would agree. What about the young guys: Flacco and Freeman and Ryan? Neil noted that Eli passed for more yards and more touchdowns than any of the three, and that's true. He also threw as many interceptions as all three combined, rushed for the fewest yards, and lost the most fumbles. Does none of that matter? Seriously, Eli threw as many interceptions (25) as Flacco (10), Freeman (6), and Ryan (9) put together. That's a really big deal. The Giants led the NFL in turnovers last season (42), with 30 of those falling on Eli. The last team to commit 40 turnovers and make the playoffs was the 2001 Rams, but that team averaged 40 yards a game more than last year's Giants.

Freeman is a hugely promising talent. Last season, he passed for 3,451 yards. That's 550 fewer than Eli. He threw 25 TD passes, 6 fewer than Manning. But he committed 21 fewer turnovers and rushed for 300 more yards. Plus, Freeman played his best at the end of the season. Freeman is only 23, and he visibly improved during the season. Seriously, look at his passer rating month by month:

Sep: 84.6
Oct: 88.6
Nov: 93.8
Dec: 105.2
Jan: 133.2

Eli, in contrast, did his dismal December dance, with a 71.7 passer rating in the last full month of the season. Who do you want, the guy that throws 20 interceptions every year and is turning 31 this season, or the 23-year-old who played as well at the end of last season as anyone this side of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers?

Matt Ryan passed for 3,705 yards and 28 TDs last season, with only 9 INTs. Flacco passed for over 3,600 yards and 25 TDs, with 10 picks. Eli got picked 16 times more than Ryan, 15 more than Flacco. Think about your favorite team's quarterback. If he threw an extra interception every Sunday, would you trade that for 25 yards per game and an extra TD pass once every three weeks? I wouldn't. An interception typically costs much more than 25 yards.

Perhaps most importantly, Flacco and Ryan, like Freeman, figure to be even better in 2011, improve as they get more experience. Eli isn't likely to get any better at this point in his career. A good quarterback can play well into his 30s, but you normally stop improving by that point. The young guys got visibly better from month to month, week to week in Freeman's case. Neil wrote about the Giants' injuries last season, like Freeman was throwing passes to Jerry Rice and Lance Alworth. The Bucs' leading receivers last year were a tight end, a rookie, and a running back with no knees (Cadillac Williams).

Eli has good counting stats (yards, TDs) because he never misses a game. But his rate stats are consistently middle of the road, because he's simply not a great quarterback. Neil conceded that Eli isn't on the same level as Brady and Peyton and the other top-of-the-list QBs, but he inexplicably claimed that "the numbers also don't suggest that he is a middle-of-the-road quarterback," which actually is exactly what the numbers suggest. To reach a different conclusion, you have to focus exclusively on the last season or two and ignore the defining characteristic of Eli's playing style, which is high-risk, high-reward: lots of touchdowns and lots of interceptions. You can't give him credit for one and ignore the other, because they're both a function of the way Eli has always played.

Peyton's little brother is not a bad quarterback; he's average, maybe even a little above average. His reputation makes him more than that. Eli Manning is not someone I have ever felt sorry for. This is a kid who was born in a well-off family, raised in a loving environment, tutored by Archie and Peyton, drafted first overall, traded by his own demand to the team of his choice, got hot at the right time and won a Super Bowl MVP Award, signed a $100 million contract, and has several national endorsement deals. He gets a ton of hype because of his last name, his college career, the fact that he plays in New York, and the good fortune that members of the media adore his family. With so many things going for him, Eli doesn't need our sympathy.

So let's be realistic. He's an inconsistent player who throws too many interceptions, can't run, and fades every December. He's a good fantasy backup because he never sits and he plays on a team that scores touchdowns, but he's a mediocre starter in real life because he doesn't protect the ball and has struggled with his accuracy. There are easily a dozen better QBs in the league, and Eli would cause serious problems for a team that wasn't already pretty good. Ever year, Eli is a very average quarterback, sometimes a touch better than average. But he's not elite, and he's not underrated.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:47 PM | Comments (15)

Wait Till Next Year? No, Wait Till June!

Major League Baseball has on the table a proposed rule change that would result in an increase in the number of playoff teams from eight to 10. This proposal is widely expected to pass without much issue and one additional team from each league could be in the postseason fray as early as next season. While the company line being toed by the league voice box is that such a change is being made to keep the season interesting later for a lot more teams, the reality is that it is simply a way for MLB to raise the bar relative to its television playoff contract, which will lead to a whole lot of extra money for the league and its teams.

Some may think I am being overly skeptical and simplistic and my dismissal of MLB's "good of the game" argument relative to this change; if that were the case, then it wouldn't be nearly as easy to dismiss the notion that such a change would in fact be a boon to any number of potential playoff contenders.

Consider these facts: as currently constructed, the league's playoff formula has left no fewer than nine American League and five National League teams in contention at the time this article is being written (for the purposes of this discussion, "in contention" will assume no more than 4.5 games out of any of the potential wild card spots). At this same time last season, the numbers were similar: seven American League squads and six National League teams.

Now, applying the logic that there are two additional wild card berths in both 2011 and 2010 (but using the same logic that 4.5 games back is the cut-off point) and you see that in 2011, only St. Louis (currently 5 games out of the proverbial No. 2 wild card slot) would consider themselves in the running for the wild card, and likewise, in 2010, zero additional teams from either league would have found themselves with a realistic shot at playoff participation. You'd expect that the highly paid think-tank that is Major League Baseball would have a firm grasp on this reality.

Surely I'm not telling them something they don't already know. It's not exactly higher math used to frame a very obvious reality that adding a single wild card spot would do very little to re-engage a number of the many teams that are woefully out of contention by mid-August each season.

Beyond the obvious apples-to-apples standings assessment that clearly shows that most teams out of contention in August will remain out of contention with extra playoff spots at stake, further research nets an even more startling realization: many teams have their postseason fate sealed as early as June each season. While traditionalists will maintain that part of the draw of baseball is its raw unpredictability — with the gauntlet that is six solid months of daily grind separating the wheat from the chaff — the numbers tell a vastly different story.

In the past 15 years, a mere 9% of teams with a losing record on June 1 wound up with 90 wins, which is typically a very safe bet for teams with playoff aspirations to shoot for. Citing a May 2011 Wall Street Journal article, "the average correlation between a team's win percentage on June 1 and its final winning percentage is 0.76." To break this correlation into layman's terms, a 1:1 (or 1.0) correlation suggests a direct relationship between June 1 winning percentage and a team's final winning percentage, which is to say that 100% of teams would have the same or better winning percentage at year's end as they do on June 1st.

So, by the current statistical measure, a whopping 76% of the teams to have won 90 games or more in the past 15 years were on pace to reach that number by June 1st. I've included a bit more detail on this statistical correlation from that Wall Street Journal article below, but before we get to that, a few more tidbits on which to postulate.

To say this statistical assessment belies a long-standing belief that baseball is a marathon rather than a sprint is an understatement at best. The marketing machine that puts fan's fannies in the seats of stadiums across the MLB landscape would sell you a very different story, to be sure. Local sports talk shows, newspapers, online advertisements, and even mainstream media outlets like ESPN and CBS Sports all seem to be in on MLB's gig; the selling of hope to the masses is a very popular strategy, even if the facts clearly show that all hope is realistically lost by the time Memorial Day Weekend hits. Heck, even the teams themselves do their part in shielding the collective MLB fan base from the truth with their constant "we are just taking it one day at a time" refrains.

Sure, there are always going to be statistical outliers. This season, for example, the Milwaukee Brewers were 19-21 on May 15th. Over the next few weeks, they won 11 of their 16 games to land themselves a .536 winning percentage on that June 1st date. On August 14th, however, the Brew Crew were 70-51, a .579 winning percentage. This is clearly a bold trend upwards for a team that, by the statistical measure discussed above, was on the proverbial bubble. But even this apparent outlier was relatively easy to predict had the full spectrum of numbers been reviewed in early June.

When the Brewers found themselves under .500 in mid-May, they had played about the same number of games both home and away, winning 68% of the time at home and only 29% of the time on the road. By June 1, those numbers had begun trending more favorably, winning 3 out of every 4 games at home and about 1 out of every 3 road games. Even with that small sample set (between May 15 and June 1), even the most novice mathematician could easily recognize a positive trend that, while showing net improvement, did not necessarily belie the deeper reality that Milwaukee is a much better team at home than they are on the road.

Such a realization should lead one to believe that the statistical trend is one that can be trusted, so projecting the June 1 winning percentages outward to season's end wouldn't be a huge leap of faith. Doing just that, one could surmise that the Brewers would be on pace to win 88 games this season. One final review of the numbers, based on August 14th standings, shows that the Brewers have indeed kept up their 75% winning pace at home and have further improved on their road win percentage (now at 41%), which would project to 6 additional wins. All things said, there current standing is a pretty clear representation of where we thought they would be had we performed an empirical review in early June.

While this may seem like a bunch of mathematical mumbo-jumbo, the basis for this argument is simple and clear and quite undeniable. In most cases, even when there is seemingly an outlier in play, one can assess the month of May to determine any one baseball team's trend and apply that trend to a thorough statistical analysis of the standings in early June and voila! Any fan should be able to pretty comfortably predict their team's shot at the postseason.

So, the next time you are wondering when you should start chanting the ever popular phrase "wait till next year," break out a calculator and a Saturday morning edition of the USA Today and crunch the numbers. You may wind up knowing a whole lot more than you think you do about your team and their chances in a given season.

Now, for your reading pleasure, here is another excerpt from the May 20, 2011 Wall Street Journal article written by Matthew Futterman regarding the importance of that afore-mentioned 0.76 statistical correlation:

"How high is a 0.76 correlation? Statisticians consider 0.7 a "significant" correlation and 0.8 a "strong" one. These are on a scale where 1.0 represents a direct statistical relationship and 0 represents no relation at all. Ben Alamar, the founder of the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, said football stat-heads are thrilled when they find a correlation of 0.4. in predicting whether certain plays lead to extra yardage. The system of college admission in the U.S. is largely based on SAT scores. The College Board's 2008 analysis of the relationship between SAT scores and first-year college performance found a correlation of 0.53. In terms of sports, the June 1 winning percentage correlation in baseball is higher than the correlation of winning percentages of NFL teams at a comparable point in the season (five games). Also, despite just a 16-game schedule, 12.6% of NFL teams under .500 at that point ended up making the playoffs, which is higher than the rate for baseball. A comparison with hockey and basketball teams isn't applicable because more than half of those make the playoffs."

Posted by Matt Thomas at 12:30 PM | Comments (0)

August 14, 2011

What Kind of Stuff Are You Made Of?

The post-Wimbledon offseason for many players has come to an end. It's time to see in the next couple of tournaments who has been putting in the hard work to bolster their chances for the U.S. Open, who's been recuperating or resting injured limbs and joints, and who's just been taking an extended holiday.

Okay, that last one won't apply to many, but the former certainly does. When we think of sports that are damaging to your health, what springs to mind? Football? Hockey? Extreme Pro bull riding? I think we can safely place the latter on that list. But why shouldn't tennis be on there? Yeah, sure it's non-contact and if your opponent punches you at the change of ends, they're in some serious trouble.

But playing tennis puts a lot of strain on your body, in so many different ways and places. Sometimes you glance across the courts and see someone so taped up with bandages they wouldn't look out of place in a remake of "The Mummy."

That being said, I'm sure players would rather have a little tape and be able to play than suffer an injury lay-off. After all, if a player doesn't play, the tour won't pay.

Injuries affect everyone from time to time. Roger Federer has been known to complain of back pain, Rafael Nadal's knees are infamous, and Novak Djokovic, well, what can be said about this man? He might be number one on tour now, but for a long while, he was a joke on tour for his exaggerated injuries and his all-too-frequent retirements.

With this all said, it seemed like an idea to make an inventory of what a tennis player needs in his arsenal today to stay on tour. Thinking of taking up a career in tennis? Because here's what you'll need (if you don't possess these qualities ... well, you're only human):

Let's start with the basics — even if you've got the physique of a Greek God, if your internal organs aren't up to scratch, you're not going to last long out there. What you need is an immune system ready to tackle anything. And when I say anything, I mean anything. As a pro on tour, you're traveling a lot, and with each country comes another disease or infection you hadn't heard of until you've caught it.

A tennis player needs feel no fear, especially when it comes to jabs. I said they needed a good immune system, which means plenty of jabs to keep them going. Not a fan of needles? Okay, just play the tournaments near where you live. Not sure how many of the pros decided that was the best option. Probably not many.

Traveling, well, it's a part of every player's routine, week in, week out. A fear of flying (or heights in general) is not an advisable quality if you want to make it to the big-time. Imperviousness to this fear is not a necessity, however. The dreadlocked warrior Dustin Brown spent several years traveling around Europe from tournament to tournament in a camper van. He said it was the best present his parents ever bought him.

Now that we've progressed beyond fears, phobias, and general illnesses, it's time to move on to a very important aspect of being a pro that I probably should have mentioned earlier. You need, and I mean need, to be good at playing tennis. A very high standard is the recommended amount.

Rafa Nadal and Serena Williams might have you believe that bulging biceps are a necessity if you're going to reach the top, but don't listen to them. Sure, strength isn't without its merits, but in the tennis world, the ability to generate power whilst retaining control is what you're really after.

What else do you need? Oh yes, a quick wit. Or at least a sense of humor. Or the ability to speak English fluently. Or even at all. Okay, so maybe you don't need those qualities, and believe me, many a player will take the liberty of not learning English, because let's face it, getting their game right is more important than getting their words right. It is a bit frustrating, though.

The ability to express yourself on court. Every player does it, in their own different way. In celebration, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga jumps around pointing at himself, Andrea Petkovic dances, and Mikhail Youzhny salutes the crowd. In frustration, Andy Murray shouts, Maria Sharapova screams, and nine times out of 10, Fernando Gonzalez will pulverize a racquet to smithereens. I'd advise to go with the other options. The Gonzalez approach can be costly.

What is it commentators are forever saying marks a good player? It's not their technique, their power, or their accuracy. It's their mental toughness. It's the ability to go out there and hit winners like there's no tomorrow when it's going well, and when it's not, to just keep getting that ball back and making it tricky for the person on the other side of the net.

You might not know this, but tennis players need a keen sense of smell. Like dogs, a good tennis player can smell fear, or at least weakness, and will pounce on it at the first opportunity, tearing open a wound and feasting on it. Might have taken the dog metaphor a little far there.

Whilst we're still talking about senses, each pro has hyper-sensitive taste buds. Victory tastes sweet; defeat tastes bitter. And the diet they stay on all year long, I couldn't comment on that, primarily because I don't have a nutritionist planning out my every meal to get the most out of my body. I'll just take a guess and say, even if it doesn't taste very nice, I'm sure the pros outweigh the cons.

Finally, what a player needs, almost more than anything, is determination. Without determination, they never have practiced day in, day out for years. Without determination, they wouldn't overcome adversity. Without determination, a pro tennis player becomes "that guy who comes along to the club on a Saturday."

So, if you'll forgive the rather crude damper there, would you have made it as a pro tennis player? I think we can all see now what kind of stuff a player is made of. And to sum up, every tennis player you've ever seen, or ever heard of on tour, is tough as nails.

Posted by Angus Saul at 2:36 PM | Comments (0)

August 12, 2011

Foul Territory: Money "Talks," Joe Pa Walks

* Caddy Shaft — Adam Scott won the World Golf Championship in Ohio with Steve Williams serving as his caddy, a month after Williams was fired by Tiger Woods, who finished 18 shots back. Williams called it the most satisfying win of his career, while Scott quipped that he pays Williams to put clubs in his hands, not words in his mouth. Scott also said Williams was even less qualified to talk about winning than Charlie Sheen.

* The Blindside, or Joe Pa(in), or Tackling Dummy, or Littany (of Injuries) Lion — Penn State coach Joe Paterno was injured when a receiver crashed into him during practice on Sunday. Paterno suffered injuries to his right shoulder and hip, including a hairline fracture to his pelvis. Upon his release from the hospital, Paterno downplayed the injuries, saying it may take only one player to take Joe Paterno down, but it takes an entire university to bring down a coach like, say, Jim Tressel.

* High, My Name is Ricky (Not High, My Name is Still Ricky), or Supporting Roll — The Baltimore Ravens signed former Miami running back Ricky Williams to a two-year, $2.5 million contract, adding depth to their running attack after releasing Willis McGahee. Williams said he hopes to be the solution to the Ravens recent postseason shortcomings, in which they've failed to make the Super Bowl in the last three years, a trend Williams described as "chronic."

* Don't Pay For Me, Argentina, or Baby Love — Real Madrid signed seven-year-old Argentine soccer prodigy Leonel Angel Coira to its youth soccer academy. Coira had tryouts with Real Madrid and Athletico Madrid, but chose Madrid. Coira's favorite player is Lionel Messi, and his favorite cartoon is Scooby Doo.

* Johnson-ville Brat, or Gold (Tooth) Standard — Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson continued his holdout, seeking a new long term contract despite renegotiating last year. Johnson is scheduled to make $800,000 in base salary this year, and the Titans said they won't renegotiate until Johnson reports to camp. An increasingly impatient Johnson said the Titans need to put their money where their mouth is so he can put the money where his teeth are.

* Get Used to More Screens — The NFL is instituting game-day testing for performance-enhancing drugs this season under the new collective bargaining agreement. The game-day testing does not include recreational drugs, which is good news for all parties, particularly those that Santonio Holmes may attend.

* "Hanging" Chad, or Mi Casa Es Su Casa — Chad Ochocinco said he plans to live with a fan for the first few weeks of the season, although he has yet to determine how to chose the fan. Ochocinco has also yet to determine whether the fan will be called "lucky."

* Dirty Deeds Not Done Dirt Cheap, or Did He? Dirty Money — Newly-released records show that former Ohio State coach Jim Tressel made $21.7 million over his 10-year career, including $3.5 million in 2010. Many were surprised that Tressel made that much, except for his former players, who were surprised he made that little.

* Jesus Sighed, or He's Abstaining, From Starting, or Kyle Orton Follows Tim Tebow, But Only on Twitter — Despite high hopes for the 2011 season, Broncos quarterback Tim Tebow is listed as the backup to Kyle Orton. Tebow's No. 15 jersey remains a top seller, proving that his fans are not ashamed at all about wearing "second-hand" clothes.

* Time to Call an Audible, or Eastern Promises, or Nostro-Dumbass — Washington quarterback Rex Grossman predicted an NFC East title this season for the Redskins, who finished 6-10 last year. Grossman added that, unfortunately, his prediction would not come to fruition because he also predicts the world to end on October 21, long before the 'Skins clinch the division.

* Traffic Stop, is This Some Kind of Bust? — Earnhardt Ganassi Racing fired two team members who were arrested on charges of trafficking marijuana. Huntersville, North Carolina police arrested the two, both of whom worked on Juan Montoya's team, after seizing 10.5 pounds of marijuana that had been shipped from California. The story quickly hit the NASCAR gossip mill, and soon rumors of someone having a "seizure" at EGR, coupled with the mysterious appearance of a "bundle of joy," had everyone talking.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:34 PM | Comments (0)

August 11, 2011

Rex Grossman: Courageous Leader or Clueless Redskin?

On August 9, Rex Grossman said a number of things that got people scratching their heads. Not that this is a rare occurrence with Grossman (he once referred to himself as "that mystery quarterback"), but his latest foray with the media has made us question how much time the man has spent in our universe.

Talking with the Washington, DC media, Grossman started off the interview by saying that the Washington Redskins are currently "waiting in the wings" and "right where we want to be."

If by "waiting in the wings" you mean "finishing in last place," then you are dead on, Rex. The Redskins are ripe to upset the Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants as they look to improve from 6-10. I can also see what you mean by being "right where we want to be." I'd love to be competing with John Beck for my job, too.

He also noted that "no one is talking about us right now" implying (in ridiculous fashion, I might add) that the Redskins should be talked about.

You're wrong, Rex. Everyone is talking about you right now. And they're saying that you're incredibly misinformed. I swear, this interview is going to be used in the NFL's next initiative on educating people on the effects of concussions.

Grossman then took off his Mensa t-shirt and said that if "you look at us from top to bottom, there's a bunch of great players."

Is it just me, or is Rex looking at the wrong team's media guide? Santana Moss is the only thing even resembling a weapon on offense and the team's defense is full of people where, unlike "Cheers," nobody knows their name. Tim Hightower is your running back. TIM "I FALL DOWN AT SPEEDBUMPS" HIGHTOWER! The man averages less than 600 yards a season, has had 9 fumbles in the last two seasons, and the longest run of his career is 26 yards (which he got in 2008).

The Redskins' fearless leader finished up his hallucinogenic-inspired speech with this gem of a quote: "...when it's all said and done, I really feel like this team's gonna win the East." I am assuming that by "this team" he meant the Redskins and by "East" he meant the NFC East, which makes me wonder if the new NFL drug test policy should include a few more things than HGH and PCP.

Rex, the Washington Redskins will be lucky to finish fourth in the division and that's assuming you don't crash the team's airplane midseason in a hubris-fueled rampage and force Dan Snyder to forfeit the entire 2011 season (which, coincidentally, might not be the worst of ideas looking at the team's depth chart).

How's this for a bold prediction? The Redskins will finish 1-15, with half of the team's non-losing weeks being their bye. Oh, and Rex, you'll be on the bench after your Week 3 matchup against the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football. Snyder is never one to like looking embarrassed on national television (which explains his absence from prime-time games for the last dozen or so seasons).

Posted by Ryan Day at 3:05 PM | Comments (4)

The Greatest Weekend in Sports

As much as I follow, cover, and enthuse about sports year-round, there are two times of the year that I look forward to especially.

One is March Madness. Others might take off the Thursday and Friday that make up the first round of the NCAA tournament. I always took it one step further, and took off the entire week prior, when the conference tournaments are in full-bore.

The second time is right around the corner, and I'm giddy with excitement: Labor Day weekend. I love Labor Day weekend so much simply because that's when the greatest glut of sports, important sports, is being played. Let me count the ways.

First, and most importantly, it's the opening weekend of college football. If you've been reading this space, you know how I long for college football all offseason, and do a ridiculously early annual preview of Week 1 games.

The distinction of this year's very-very-very first game goes to Murray State at Louisville, at 6 PM Eastern on ESPNU on Thursday September 1st. It may not be as much of a clunker as you would think. Louisville is picked at or near the bottom in most Big East polls I've seen, and Murray State is coming off a solid year in Division 1-AA (I continue to boycott the phrase "FCS"), and has an explosive stat machine of a quarterback, Casey Brockman.

As for the first "real" game ... well, ESPN normally features a solid ACC vs. SEC (or even SEC vs. SEC) matchup for the first night of the season, but they've downgraded this year to UNLV at Wisconsin. Honestly, the closest game that features two Division 1-A teams on Thursday is only on espn3.com: Wake Forest at Syracuse.

Friday's better, with TCU traveling to Baylor. Saturday's slate pits my two beloved colleges against each other, Akron at Ohio State. The two marquee games on Saturday (to the complaint of many across the Internet) are both on at the same time: Boise State vs. Georgia in Atlanta, and Oregon vs. LSU in Dallas. Those games are at 8 PM Eastern, and there is still another one at that time that should be good. Tulsa, fresh off a Conference USA West co-championship and holders of a 7-game win streak, have to test their mettle at Oklahoma. It will be the first game ever broadcast on the FX network.

Sunday has Marshall at West Virginia for the in-state crown, and a better intra-state game will be Sunday Night when SMU travels to Texas A&M. I will be at that game. Expect a trip report.

Labor Day Night usually features Miami, and will again this year, when they travel to Maryland.

Finally on the football front, there's a full slate of CFL games on espn3.com, and it's the last week of the NFL preseason. Last chance to make a decent impression, you marginal players you!

It's also a huge, huge week for soccer. The first weekend in September is annually a "FIFA match date," which means all clubs must permit their players to leave for international duty. On Friday, big matches abound.

First, the U.S. plays Costa Rica in a fairly important game. While Jurgen Klinsmann had a nice debut coaching the Americans, drawing with the Mexicans, if he loses to an inferior Costa Rican team, the honeymoon will be over like that.

But over in Europe, qualifying for Euro 2012 is in its home stretch. Two of the three teams tied for first in Group B, Ireland and Slovakia, will be playing each other. Hungary needs to make up 3 points on Sweden to get into second place in Group E (the top two slots in each group being the critical ones), and they host the Swedes. Greece travels to Israel in a 1-vs.-2 (well, tied for second) Group F battle. These are just a few of the crucial Euro 2012 qualifying matches.

But I bet you didn't know 2014 World Cup qualifying is underway, too. Indeed it is, and there are qualifying matches taking place in North America and Asia. While it is too early for USA and the other giants of CONCACAF to begin their campaign, the format is different in Asia, where Japan and North Korea will square off, two squads that played in the 2010 World Cup.

All the soccer matches I mentioned take place on Friday.

Baseball is kicking into, to quote H.I. McDonough in Raising Arizona, the heat of the pee-nant drive. The notable series that week, in terms of teams still in contention and battling it out with each other, are the White Sox at the Tigers, the Rangers at the Red Sox, and the Diamondbacks at the Giants.

All of that would be more than enough. But wait! There's more! You'd think the Powers That Be in tennis would think twice about scheduling a major on this weekend, but the U.S. Open will be in full swing that weekend and, being a major, I will try to squeeze some viewing in. ESPN3.com will be showing several courts at once, although not (going by their schedule) on Saturday and Sunday, when CBS will be going wall-to-wall from 11 to 6 Eastern.

If you're a basketball fan, the time is now to get your fix in since the NBA season is likely to be wiped out and the college game doesn't start until mid-November. Happily, the two strongest confederations — Europe and the Americas — will both be in the midst of their championship tournament, and besides continental/hemispherical bragging rights, the tournaments double as qualifiers for the 2012 Summer Olympics.

Alas, the U.S. is not taking part in the FIBA Americas championship, having already qualified for the Olympics. Every other team will be there, and the best game of the weekend will likely be Puerto Rico vs. Argentina on Friday. They are the two highest ranked FIBA Americas members besides the U.S.

As far as the European Championships, or Eurobasket as its called, there's too many "good" games to go over, as 11 of the top 20 teams in the FIBA rankings are European. I will just point out that three of the top six ranked teams in the world (Spain second, Lithuania fifth, Turkey sixth) are in Group A, and they all play one another that weekend at some point. It will be a tough road for the other poor saps in Group A (Great Britain, Poland, and a to-be-determined late qualifier).

The best part: Every game of both the FIBA Americas Championship and Eurobasket will be on espn3.com. I apologize for sounding like a shill for espn3, but they just have a great selection of obscure but very watchable competitions.

In golf, the Deutsche Bank Classic will take place, and take advantage of the U.S. holiday schedule to run Friday-Monday instead of Thursday-Sunday. The Nationwide Tour's Mylan Classic will be on the Golf Channel, as well. The biggest golf tournament of the weekend, though, is probably the European Open, a semi-major on the European Tour that is also open to members of the Asian tour. It is held, as always, in the interestingly-named resort of Crans-Montana, in Switzerland.

What's amusing to me is that, if I were an Australian or a New Zealander, I could also write about what a big weekend this is if I only cared about their sports; three of the four biggest Australasian sporting competitions — the National Rugby League, the Australian Football League, and the ITM Cup, which is New Zealand's rugby union association — all either have their final weekend of the regular season, or their championship. I'm sure you can find it online. Sadly, for me, I will have to sleep sometime.

So can we fast-forward a couple of weeks yet?

Posted by Kevin Beane at 1:11 PM | Comments (2)

August 10, 2011

ESPN's Double-Secret QBR Still Shrouded in Mystery

I wasn't the best athlete as a kid, but I was still pretty good in sports. Sports statistics, that is. By third grade, I could calculate free throw percentages, and in middle school, I understood how a hitter's batting average could exceed his OBP. Then one autumn during high school, I went after the Goliath of all sports stats: the NFL's passer rating.

I waited for the first week's numbers to come out — which, back then, took until Wednesday — and went to work convinced the esoteric code could be cracked by using just about every permutation in the limited data population existing after only one game until I could duplicate a QB's rating. Even still, I never did figure it out. It wasn't until the advent of the Internet, which brought arcane information like this to my desktop, that the inner workings of this rating were exposed.

Now it is 2011. I've had an Internet connection for two decades. The passer rating system has been in place for 38 years and under attack for just as long. There's a rallying cry for a new quarterback measurement, and ESPN has embraced the mandate. In a one-hour special that aired last Friday night, the network lifted the shroud surrounding its much-anticipated Total Quarterback Rating, or QBR. Nevertheless, I'm no better off than that high school kid trying to reverse-engineer the old formula while his friends were out picking up girls. That's because ESPN won't disclose its recipe.

Of course, they don't have to. The Soup Nazi stashed away his recipes in an armoire, and Colonel Sanders had his 11 herbs and spices mixed all over the country to proect his formula. Both enjoyed secrecy and widespread acceptance. But that doesn't work everywhere. The Supreme Court can't simply announce that the video gaming industry just beat California by a score of 7-2 and expect us to rewrite laws without a basis for doing so. Sports also need to explain themselves. Imagine watching a football game where one team fights its way across the goal line and celebrates the touchdown while a ref matter-of-factly picks up the ball, spots it on the 20, and brings out the opponent's offense to take over. No signal, no miked zebras explaining the call, just first-and-ten going the other way. That's what ESPN has done.

The network willing to devote a full season to the importance of the quarterback now wants to rewrite the rules on how to measure one, but they've learned a valuable lesson from the rating they hope to supplant: keep it secret. No one can criticize a methodology they can't analyze. Just move the sticks, swap balls, and huddle up.

The website trailer for Friday's "Year of the Quarterback" SportsCenter special shows Tom Brady completing a 3-yard pass on 3rd-and-3 to pick up the first down but losing a point of passer rating in the process. The reason the incumbent system can be mocked is because the three-man committee led by the late Don Smith that devised the rating laid bare its machinations. You know what you get and can independently calculate the impact of every play. On the contrary, it's not possible to exploit QBR's flaws, and that may well be its most endearing quality.

ESPN has defended their position. In an e-mail, Senior Director of Communications Bill Hofheimer told Sports Central, “the formula will not be available because it's based on a complex algorithm and can't be boiled down to a basic formula where you plug in a few numbers.”

The mouthpiece of QBR is the Monday Night Football lineup of Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski, and Jon Gruden, the special's anchors, who fawned over their employer's new toy to the brink of embarrassment. The MNF cast was also joined by QBR consultant and former NFL QB Trent Dilfer, who was nearly brought to tears by the pure white light of a rating that could reduce all facets of a quarterback's game – passing, running, thinking, clutch play — into one magical quantitative value.

In Dilfer, ESPN sought an outside ambassador to lend credibility to its system. He is sent into the mix as our eyes and ears, which is fine for those of us who can accept that the 14-year NFL veteran, whose 70.2 rating belies his Super Bowl championship, isn't grinding axes against a system that rated him as close to a pedestrian passer as ever the NFL could produce.

So how does Dilfer's passer rating translate to QBR? ESPN can't say, and for good reason. The underlying database of expected results that is a vital component of QBR was built by using NFL play-by-play data of some 200,000 snaps over the last ten years, but specific values can only be assigned by using video evidence, and they've only collected film going back to 2008. Dilfer retired in 2007. For all we know, his QBR may be on par with Sammy Baugh or Joe Montana.

The rating system is the brainchild and effort of the Production Analytics unit of ESPN's Stats & Information Group, a collection of geeks destined for actuarial school had their payday from Bristol, Connecticut not come in. They've allegedly logged dozens of attributes from those films, many involving subjective analysis. Was the pass in the breadbasket, or did the receiver make a circus catch? Did he drop a catchable ball, or tip one that resulted in an interception? How far was the ball in the air? The actuaries like it when the ball goes far, and are loathe to give the QB credit for any yards after the catch.

Dilfer is also cited as a contributing architect, which undoubtedly had special appeal to him. Pennington may have had to entice Mr. Loo into saving humanity by promising him the opportunity to kill 50, maybe 60, people in The Kentucky Fried Movie, but ESPN had Dilfer at one: arch-nemesis Jay Cutler. In one 60-second segment on Negative Non-Throwing Plays, Gruden explains the devastating effects of sacks, which he says happen when QBs hold the ball too long — cut to Cutler being sacked by the Eagles — or when they don't understand the protection scheme — cut to Cutler being sacked by the Redskins — and are exacerbated when they result in turnovers — cut to Cutler fumbling against the Raiders.

It remains to be seen how logistics factor into the deliverability of this product. While passer ratings can be determined real-time and flashed on our televisions along with receptions and rushing yards, video feeds will have to be analyzed and adjudicated by the actuaries back in Bristol. Who will decide if a pass was intentionally thrown away, or if a sack was the result of a blown blitzing assignment, and how fast will that get to our living rooms? How do we know some on-call techie didn't just pick a number from 1 to 100 and feed it to us?

If ESPN wants acclaim, wants to have a part in NFL rules-writing, wants to stock the material that feeds our sports radio the day after a game, they have to become accountable by providing the recipe to their system. That way, we can determine for ourselves how any isolated play affects QBR. The NFL did it for ESPN, and ESPN has exploited that visibility.

It might be amusing to observe a quarterback hitting his tailback on the dead run behind the line of scrimmage knowing he can slip through the outside linebacker for a long gain, only to see his QBR drop in the process. Forget yards after catch; actuaries dig the long ball.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 12:49 PM | Comments (4)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 21

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Carl Edwards — Edwards finished seventh at Pocono, just days after signing a multi-year contract extension with Roush Fenway Racing, leading two laps on the way to his 13th top-10 result of the year. He remains atop the Sprint Cup point standings, and leads Jimmie Johnson by 11.

"Jack Roush went 'all in,'" Edwards said. "Now he's 'all out,' and I'm a very rich and happy man. He made me an offer I couldn't refuse, and I put my name on the dotted line. That's called a 'dollar sign.'"

But how about that finish in Saturday's Nationwide Series U.S. Cellular 250 at Iowa Speedway, in which I crashed into and pushed Ricky Stenhouse's car across the finish line. What a great time for Nationwide insurance to push their 'accident forgiveness' promotion."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson posted his seventh top-five finish of the year, taking fourth in the Good Sam RV Insurance 500 at Pocono. Johnson and Kurt Busch scrapped for third place during the final laps, and after the race, the two exchanged words and had to be separated by their crews. Johnson is second in the point standings, 11 behind Carl Edwards.

"Kurt Busch is a lot like a cosmetic surgeon's scalpel," Johnson said. "He really knows how to get under your skin. Lucky for him, I have compassion for a driver whose personal life is obviously in turmoil. Kurt is just a few weeks removed from marital breakup; I didn't want him to get 'dumped' again, so I held back."

It's true that Kurt and I had to be separated by our crews. And it's also true that Kurt and I are separated by four Sprint Cup championships."

3. Kyle Busch — Busch chased Brad Keselowski down the stretch at Pocono, but was unable to catch the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge, falling short of his fourth win of the year and instead settling for the runner-up spot. Busch improved one spot in the point standings and is now 16 out of first.

"In a footrace," Busch said, "the result would have surely been different. But let's give Keselowski credit for dealing with the pain, and by 'pain' I don't mean his teammate, and my brother, Kurt Busch. Brad puts the 'Ow!' in Keselowski."

4. Kurt Busch — Busch out-dueled Jimmie Johnson for third at Pocono, banging doors down the stretch in a battle that continued after the race. Busch and Johnson argued vehemently after the race and had to be pulled apart by their respective crews. Busch improved two spots in the point standings to fourth and is now 14 out of first.

"They say the No. 48 crew is one of NASCAR's best," Busch said. "I agree. Not only did they keep Johnson out of trouble, they also did the same for me, because without their intervention, I likely would have been punched."

But I refuse to back down from Johnson. And I'll tell him that. I'll speak my mind, and say to him the same thing I would say to my most bitter rival, or my car owner, or the former Penske technical director. I have a dirty mind, and I'm not afraid to speak it."

5. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished a mediocre 14th at Pocono, his fourth-consecutive finish outside the top-10. Since winning at Charlotte in late May, Harvick's best finish is a fifth, and while he's still considered a championship contender, he needs to rekindle his winning ways before the Chase starts.

"I've got three wins on the year," Harvick said, "and not much else lately. It's known around here as the Harvick 'win or else' strategy."

But if I need a good kick in the behind, recent history tells us that Richard Childress is probably good for it."

6. Jeff Gordon — Gordon overcame a poor qualifying effort, starting 31st, on the way to a solid finish of sixth at Pocono, his 10th top-10 result of the year. He remained seventh in the Sprint Cup point standings, and is 52 out of first.

"Did you see the size of Brad Keselowski's broken left ankle?" Gordon said. "With that being said, let me congratulate him on such a 'swell' victory."

7. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth faced handling issues and faltering brakes at Pocono, yet recovered late in the race to finish 16th. Kenseth fell one spot in the point standings to sixth, and is now 26 behind Carl Edwards.

"What's the significance of Jack Roush's lucrative offer to Carl Edwards here at Roush Fenway?" Kenseth asked. "Well, it means there's at least one person who wants Carl around."

8. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished 11th in the Good Sam RV Insurance 500, following Stewart-Haas Racing teammate Ryan Newman, who finished fifth, across the line at Pocono. Stewart overcame a flat tire early in the race, falling a lap down, before rallying to nearly crack the top 10.

"Let's hear it for Brad Keselowski," Stewart said. "The guts it must take to not only drive, but win, with a broken foot. It appears nothing can stop young Keselowski, except a wall at Road Atlanta."

9. Ryan Newman — Newman finished fifth at Pocono, scoring his seventh top-5 result of the year. He remained eighth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 62 out of first and a well-cushioned 40 point edge over Denny Hamlin in 11th.

"I imagine Brad Keselowski had to be gentle with his broken left ankle," Newman said. "For that kind of courage, Tony Stewart and I commend him. That's something I think neither Tony nor I would be able to do, because, as our personalities suggest, we've never 'pussy-footed' around anything."

10. Brad Keselowski — Keselowski took an unlikely victory, winning at Pocono despite a broken left ankle suffered in a scary crash at Road Atlanta on Monday. Keselowski zoomed past Kyle Busch on a lap 185 restart and held off Busch over the final 15 laps. It was Keselowski's second victory of the year, and placed him in prime position to claim a Chase For the Cup wild card spot.

"I guess it's now a good thing to be called a 'wild card,'" Keselowski said. "Sure, my win at Pocono was a surprising one. Surprising not because a driver won with a broken foot. Surprising because a driver was taking legal pain killers."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:25 AM | Comments (0)

August 9, 2011

The Other Yankee Chasing History

In case you missed it, Derek Jeter was busy embarking on a quest for 3,000 hits earlier this season. Believe it or not, this was actually quite a big deal for a while. Questions emerged as to whether Jeter could manage to get this milestone at home, as well as what kind of hit would it end up being. Sure enough, for hit number 3,000, he walloped a David Price offering into a delirious mob in the left field box seats, stunning all who saw. He also went 5-for-5 and won the game with a single in the eighth. Baseball rejoiced. The end.

The moment was and is without question destined to be the singular highlight of the 2011 New York Yankees season and perhaps the MLB season, as well. After all, Derek Jeter, with his smooth yet gregarious personality, leadership, class, and ability to get clutch hits, owns New York. He has become an icon that transcends the sport. And yet over the past 17 years, he has not made the single greatest impact on the team as far as winning is concerned.

That honor belongs to the greatest closer of all-time, the Hammer of God, baseball's last No. 42, Mariano Rivera. Funny how someone with a nickname and reputation like that gets overlooked from time to time in the shadow of Jeter. Rivera's legacy should outshine Jeter's in the public eye, but it won't. In the same manner, his quest for history has been all but swept under the carpet.

You see, we consider him the greatest closer of all-time, but technically he has not quite claimed his rightful place atop the list yet. Rivera is currently second all-time in career saves, the statistic most important to all closers, with 588 (somewhere Dustin Pedroia and Marco Scutaro are smiling that it's not 589 after last Sunday night's comeback). The record for most saves is held by one Trevor Hoffman, who retired after the end of last season. Hoffman hung on just long enough to break 600 and finished at 601. His number will be retired in a ceremony in San Diego on August 21.

The soft-spoken, wiry man from Panama with the placid demeanor has a solid chance to steal Trevor's thunder later this season, as he needs only 14 saves with 49 games remaining. He will stand alone as the greatest milestone any closer could ever have and yet it does not seem to compare to Derek Jeter reaching 3,000 hits, which, while a great accomplishment, has been done 27 other times, and the all-time record of 4,256 hits is still in another stratosphere.

To be fair, the idea of a closer as we know it has only existed in its current incarnation since the 1970s. No one exactly racked up saves before that time, and thus there are less great closers to pass on the way to that record-breaking save. For that reason, the record may not be as glamorous or as hallowed as a century-old hitting milestone. Yet this is an increasingly growing and relevant role in the success of any baseball franchise.

The proof of Rivera's relevance to the Yankees' five world championships during his tenure lies in the fact that he took the mound and finished four of those five World Series clinching games, three of them for saves, and pitched 2 scoreless innings in the one he didn't close out in 1996. As great as Jeter is, he is still a singles hitter, generally not feared by opposing pitchers unless there are runners on base in a close game. For Rivera, the fear of opposing hitters exists even before he enters the game. Teams try to score the tying run before Rivera can come into the game to close it down. If they cannot, often there is a demoralizing effect, and thus an easy save for Mo.

Just as Jeter's quest for 3,000 hits lead to a great deal of reflection on everything he has done throughout his career, so too are there many memories to celebrate in the career of Rivera. The paradox is that Rivera has been so solidly consistent over the years that his few defeats in the big spot are more vivid and memorable than most of his victories. With that said, it's very difficult to imagine the Bombers winning any playoff series without Rivera on the mound to close it out. In fact, this has only happened twice in 18 postseason clinchers since Rivera took over the role in 1997. Then there's the more obvious postseason stats: 42 saves against only 5 blown, an 8-1 record and a ridiculous ERA of 0.71. In short, Mariano Rivera has made a living turning leads into wins, and often championships, as well.

Yet still this pursuit of history and the career it represents seems to be floating unnoticed by the baseball public. Hopefully, given a few more saves, a buzz will build up for this event of save number 602 when Rivera does break the record, whether it occurs this year or next, at home or away, and it will be a celebration for all of baseball, as it was for hit number 3,000 on July 9th of this year.

Derek Jeter wouldn't have it any other way.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 1:55 PM | Comments (0)

The Legacy of Fëdor Emelianenko

Fëdor Emelianenko is the greatest heavyweight mixed martial artist of all time. He's a strangely polarizing figure, and there are a lot of people — most notably UFC President Dana White — who are claiming otherwise on the heels of Emelianenko's loss to Dan Henderson. The record suggests differently.

Fëdor went a decade without a loss, winning 31 fights, and if some of those were against uninspiring opponents, hey, Anderson Silva defended his title against Travis Lutter, Thales Leites, and Patrick Côté. Emelianenko's résumé undoubtedly includes some can-crushing and freak shows, and his legacy is marred by his management team's decision-making, which kept him out of really tough fights in recent years, until this current losing streak. But that résumé also includes multiple victories over the man White says is the greatest heavyweight in history, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira.

Altogether, Emelianenko has seven wins over UFC Heavyweight Champions or Interim Champions: Nogueira (twice), Mark Coleman (twice), Kevin Randleman, Tim Sylvia, and Andrei Arlovski. He also beat Ricardo Arona, Babalu Sobral, Semmy Schilt, Heath Herring, and Mirko Filipovic. Emelianenko dealt Cro Cop just his third loss, when Filipovic was 16-2-2 and on a seven-fight winning streak. The previous losses were to Nogueira and Randleman, both of whom Fëdor had already beaten by that point.

White and others have dismissed the significance of Fëdor's wins over Sylvia and Arlovski, neither of whom is a credible fighter any more. That wasn't the case at the time, though. When Sylvia fought Emelianenko, the Maine-iac was 24-4, with the only losses coming to Frank Mir, Arlvoski, Randy Couture, and Nogueira. He was a svelte 265 pounds then, and only one fight removed from competing for the UFC belt. We can argue about exactly when Sylvia became a joke, but it was after the fight with Fëdor. The win obviously doesn't mean quite as much in retrospect as it did at the time, but Sylvia was then a consensus top-five heavyweight, and on paper probably the toughest fight available outside of Nogueira (whom Emelianenko had already bested twice) and maybe Randy Couture, who wasn't available for contractual reasons.

Arlovski left the UFC on a three-fight winning streak, knocked out Ben Rothwell and Roy Nelson in the IFL, and then fought Emelianenko at Affliction: Day of Reckoning. The Pit Bull may have a glass jaw now, but to downgrade him as an opponent in January of 2009 is simply revisionist history. Rather than criticizing Fëdor for crushing an inferior opponent, shouldn't his legacy be enhanced by the fact that he basically ruined the career of a talented fighter? Arlovski hasn't been the same since.

Even Mark Coleman was still a competitive fighter when he met Fëdor in 2004. Coleman then had won seven of his last eight bouts, the loss coming to Nogueira. Fëdor submitted him with an armbar in the first round. Two years later, with Coleman coming off a win over Shogun Rua, Emelianenko armbarred him again, this time in the second round.

The UFC and its president inspire fierce loyalty in many fans, who will blindly defend the brand and its heroes. Emelianenko, as an elite fighter who never set foot in a UFC cage, always represented a threat to UFC supremacy. Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos are enormously gifted young heavyweights, and one or both could dominate the division for the years (provided we forget about Alistair Overeem), but throughout most of the UFC's history, heavyweight has been the one weight class in which it fell short compared to other promotions. When the UFC's dominant heavyweights were Couture and Sylvia and Arlovski, PRIDE had Fëdor and Nogueira and Cro Cop. When the UFC was ruled by Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir and Shane Carwin, Strikeforce had Overeem and Fëdor and Josh Barnett. Emelianenko, more than any other fighter, represents the ugly truth that the UFC doesn't want to admit about its heavyweight division.

Henderson has repeatedly described his win over Emelianenko as the biggest achievement of his career. White will attribute that to inflated reputation and the difference in weight classes, but Fëdor's heavyweight dominance was so impressive largely because he's a natural light heavyweight. White has tried to diminish Fëdor by calling Henderson a middleweight, but the difference between them was only 16 pounds, and that's one weight class, not two. Henderson's win over Fëdor — a non-title fight for the Strikeforce light heavyweight champ — was meaningful because it came against a legend, one of the greatest mixed martial artists in the history of the sport.

Every great fighter has some laughable opponents on his record. Big Nog fought Bob Sapp and Pawel Nastula and Zuluzinho. Kiyoshi Tamura was a good fighter, but Nogueira outweighed him by 50 pounds. Couture fought James Toney, and he actually lost to Valentijn Overeem. Frank Mir's last three fights before winning the UFC heavyweight title were against Tank Abbott, Wes Sims, and Wes Sims. Impressive.

If Dana White wants to argue that Fëdor was overrated in recent years, when his opponents were jokes and freak shows like Hong Man Choi and Zuluzinho, or over-the-hill names way past their primes and fighting out of their weight class, that's a defensible position, and White can certainly point to the last three fights as evidence that he was right all along. But to go back and discredit the wins over Herring and Nogueira and Coleman and Cro Cop ... that's revisionist history. Fëdor is probably finished as an elite fighter now, but he won a lot of meaningful fights over legitimate opponents, and he is the greatest heavyweight mixed martial artist of all time. It's not credible to suggest otherwise.

August 2011 UFC Rankings

The rankings below are exclusively for the UFC, so you won't see names like Shinya Aoki or Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza on these lists.

Heavyweight (206-265 lbs)

1. Cain Velasquez
2. Junior Dos Santos
3. Brock Lesnar
4. Shane Carwin
5. Frank Mir
6. Brendan Schaub
7. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
8. Roy Nelson
9. Matt Mitrione
10. Mike Russow

Make it Happen: Lesnar vs. winner of Schaub/Nogueira

Lesnar's health permitting, of course. Otherwise, I guess Carwin or Mir could fill the gap.

Thank You, UFC, For: Mitrione vs. Cheick Kongo

A no-brainer after their recent wins on the same card. I also like the Dave Herman vs. Russow matchup. Neither fight is official yet, but both are expected to take place this October.

Light Heavyweight (186-205)

1. Jon Jones
2. Maurício "Shogun" Rua
3. Lyoto Machida
4. Rashad Evans
5. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
6. Forrest Griffin
7. Phil Davis
8. Vladimir Matyushenko
9. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
10. Alexander Gustafsson

Make it Happen: winner of Rua/Griffin vs. Dan Henderson

I know, Hendo isn't under contract to the UFC. They need to sign him if they want to prove they have the best light heavyweight in the world. If he loses at 205, give Dan a fight at middleweight (Vitor Belfort!) and then see what he can do against Anderson Silva.

Thank You, UFC, For: Evans vs. winner of Jones/Rampage

Man, did Rashad look good against Tito Ortiz. I don't think he can handle Bones Jones, but he's earned the opportunity.

Middleweight (171-185)

1. Anderson Silva
2. Yushin Okami
3. Chael Sonnen
4. Brian Stann
5. Michael Bisping
6. Vitor Belfort
7. Mark Muñoz
8. Demian Maia
9. Jason "Mayhem" Miller
10. Chris Leben

Make it Happen: Belfort vs. winner of Maia/Jorge Santiago

Or Dan Henderson.

Thank You, UFC, For: Stann vs. Sonnen

Sonnen's unabashed racism towards Brazilians has gotten really stale, and it's nice to see him fighting an opponent he can't blindly disrespect. Plus, this is a great test for Stann and should produce a top contender at 185.

Welterweight (156-170)

1. Georges St-Pierre
2. Nick Diaz
3. Jon Fitch
4. Jake Shields
5. B.J. Penn
6. Carlos Condit
7. Diego Sanchez
8. Martin Kampmann
9. Rick Story
10. Rory MacDonald

Josh Koscheck is not listed, but that's because he reportedly is moving to middleweight, not because I hate him.

Make it Happen: Fitch vs. Story

Story had all the momentum in the world after his win over Thiago Alves. He stepped in to meet Nate Marquardt on short notice, but ended up fighting Charlie Brenneman on even shorter notice, and losing all that momentum. Honestly, I would expect Fitch to tear him apart, but I thought the same about Alves. This is Story's chance to prove that when he has time to prepare for his opponent, he can hang with any welterweight in the world.

Thank You, UFC, For: St-Pierre vs. Diaz

This was the only fight left for GSP at 170. Condit may be ready, and Jon Fitch is pretty close to earning a second shot at the champ, but as soon as Zuffa acquired Strikeforce, this simply had to happen. Also, thank you for Penn vs. Condit and Sanchez vs. Matt Hughes. This weight class consistently has the best match-making in the UFC.

Lightweight (146-155)

1. Frankie Edgar
2. Gray Maynard
3. Jim Miller
4. Ben Henderson
5. Melvin Guillard
6. Anthony Pettis
7. Clay Guida
8. Donald Cerrone
9. Dennis Siver
10. Sam Stout

Sean Sherk will return to this list if he ever gets a fight on his calendar.

Make it Happen: Guida vs. Sherk

Because Guida needs an opponent and Sherk needs to stop eating nachos all day.

Thank You, UFC, For: Miller vs. Henderson

Please, please give Miller a title shot if he wins. Unless you give it to Gilbert Melendez. That's okay, too.

Featherweight (136-145)

1. Jose Aldo
2. Mark Hominick
3. Kenny Florian
4. Chad Mendes
5. Hatsu Hioki
6. Dustin Poirier
7. Diego Nunes
8. Mike Brown
9. Erik Koch
10. Tyson Griffin

Make it Happen: Easier matchups for TUF winners

Jonathan Brookins' first post-TUF fight will be against Koch, which isn't exactly easing the kid in. Other show winners have also had surprisingly tough paths out of the gate recently. I'm not saying you feed these kids a bunch of cans, but asking guys like Brookins and Nam Phan to face the likes of Koch and Brown seems a bit cruel.

Thank You, UFC, For: Aldo vs. Florian

I don't understand why some people would rather see Aldo fight Mendes than KenFlo. Florian has proven he's a competitive fighter at any weight class. Mendes has proven he's a pretty good wrestler, and he has got to be the most boring "fighter" in the UFC. Except for maybe Jake Shiel ... zzz.

Bantamweight (126-135)

1. Dominick Cruz
2. Urijah Faber
3. Joseph Benavidez
4. Brian Bowles
5. Miguel Torres
6. Demetrious Johnson
7. Eddie Wineland
8. Scott Jorgensen
9. Brad Pickett
10. Takeya Mizugaki

Make it Happen: Torres vs. winner of Benavidez/Wineland

Actually, my real Make It Happen is Cruz vs. Bowles, but Cruz vs. Johnson is already on the schedule. Mighty Mouse's style is similar to Cruz's and could give the champ problems — it might actually be a more interesting fight — but Johnson's decision win over Torres in May was a robbery, an abomination by judges who don't understand grappling. Johnson is for real, but he hasn't earned a title bid yet.

Torres looked great against Mighty Mouse, like the old Miguel Torres, and a win over someone like Benavidez would put him right back into the title picture.

Thank You, UFC, For: Kid Yamamoto vs. Damacio Page

A pair of former top-10 bantamweights trying to rebound from losses. This bout is expected to take place at UFC 135 in Denver. The matchup should create fireworks, and the winner is back in the mix at bantamweight.

UFC 134

UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle is next week, and it features a hugely important lightweight tilt between Jim Miller and Benson Henderson (why do the non-PPV cards always have the wrong headliner?), but let's be honest, you're already getting jacked for the UFC's return to Brazil. Anderson Silva finally faces Yushin Okami, Shogun Rua rematches Forrest Griffin, and a legend meets an up-and-comer when Big Nog takes on Brendan Schaub.

Heaven knows I would never condone gambling, but looking at the early odds, I see the most intriguing prospect being Okami (+350). Do I think he's likely to win? No. Do I think he has better than a 1-in-4½ chance? Yes. Silva hasn't really impressed me since his last fight with Rich Franklin. If he doesn't catch you in the first round with something ridiculous (like a back-pedaling jab or a Steven Seagal-inspired front kick to the face), things go south really quickly. Okami won't be easy to finish, and his style is similar to that of Chael Sonnen, who dominated Silva for 4½ rounds before getting caught in a triangle.

Silva is 36½ years old; he stopped getting better a long time ago. Dana White talks about Fëdor's weak list of opponents. How about Silva's résumé since he subbed Dan Henderson in early 2008? James Irvin, Patrick Côté, Thales Leites, Forrest Griffin, Demian Maia, Chael Sonnen, and Vitor Belfort. Irvin, Côté, and Leites were jokes. Maia was a less than inspiring contender, and Sonnen's reputation is based mostly on what he did against Silva. Griffin and Belfort got caught, and Silva deserves credit for that, but when was the last time he looked good after the first round?

I'm not saying you bet the farm on Okami, because he's probably going to lose. But some small action could yield a big return: bet $20 on Thunder, and a win would turn that into $90.

Very unofficial Sports Central parlay: Okami + Rua + Schaub. Again, keep the action small, but if this somehow hits, a $20 bet would win you about $170.

If you're looking to the future, UFC 136 is a seriously stacked card. If you buy one fight card in 2011, this is the one. It's set for two title fights, Sonnen vs. Stann, Maia vs. Jorge Santiago, Anthony Pettis, Melvin Guillard, and Russow vs. Herman, among others. That's a lot of important fights for one event.

Five Quick Hits

* Charles Oliveira (-150) is listed as a favorite over Donald Cerrone (+130). Oliveira is hugely promising, but those odds look backwards to me. Hypothetical parlay: Miller + Cerrone + C.B. Dollaway + Joseph Benavidez. A $20 bet would pay out over $100.

* Did two judges score the first round of Mike Brown vs. Nam Phan as 10-9? That was a massacre, a textbook 10-8 round. Incompetent judges continue to be the biggest problem in mixed martial arts.

* Zuffa cutting all its Golden Glory fighters except (for now) Sergei Kharitonov? Not cool, especially in the case of Marloes Coenen, who is a great fighter and a terrific representative for the sport.

* Zuffa's explanation for the cuts? Not believable. Why sign John Olav Einemo in May if you know you can't deal with his management? And why cut him nearly two months after his only bout in the UFC, which earned Fight of the Night? And why keep Kharitonov if you know you can't deal with his management? (Because you don't think Chad Griggs can stop Barnett, who Dana White hates even more than Overeem.)

* Zuffa is giving its competitors the fuel to build up their promotions. A match between Overeem and Emelianenko would draw more viewers than the Velasquez/Dos Santos UFC Heavyweight title fight, and fighters like Nate Marquardt and Coenen can draw fans to other promotions. In particular, Bellator should keep a close eye on Zuffa's attitude toward women's MMA. With both Coenen and Cris Cyborg available, the promotion could establish itself as the best in the world for women's MMA.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 12:16 PM | Comments (8)

August 8, 2011

The New Texas/Oklahoma: USC/Utah?

Now that the Pac-10 and has become the Pac-12, splitting out into two new revenue-enhancing divisions, fans are going to have to get used to a new way of doing things.

Not only will they have a conference championship game to look forward to, but the competitive landscape has also changed. By splitting the northern schools and southern schools into separate divisions, teams won't just be competing with the rest of the conference to get into Rose Bowl position. Now all you need to do is get atop your six-team division, land in the conference title game, and the BCS is at your finger tips.

In the North Division (see how simple that is, Big Ten?), Stanford and Oregon figure to fight it out for the division crown/ while Cal, the Washington schools/ and Oregon State play for a trip to the Maaco Bowl in Vegas. It's a bit weird to take USC out of the mix, but all six of the North members are original Pac-10 members (Pac-8 actually), so it's a familiar landscape with the traditional rivalries intact.

In the South, though, things are about to get very different with the addition of Utah and Colorado to the LA and Arizona schools.

While USC and UCLA will continue to battle for LA supremacy, you never get the sense that UCLA is a team USC would consider a bitter rival (SC has won 11 out of the last 12). Arizona and Arizona State have shown flashes of competence over the past decade, but neither has been able to sustain long enough to really get under anybody's skin except for each other's.

And then you have Utah and Colorado.

Colorado has had some good days in its history, but they haven't won a road game since 2007 and haven't finished above .500 since 2005. To say new head coach Jon Embree has his work cut out for him is putting it mildly.

But Utah. Now there's a different story.

During Kyle Whittingham's six full seasons as head coach in Salt Lake City (he was defensive coordinator for a decade before that), the Utes have gone 58-19 and 5-1 in bowl games. They went 13-0 in 2008 with a 31-17 beat down of Nick Saban's Alabama team in the 2009 Sugar Bowl. They've won at least 10 games in each of the two years since then, and have finished in the top 25 coaches' poll each of the past three seasons. (They're just on the outside of this year's preseason top 25.)

And this was with a Mountain West recruiting base. Now that they're in a big-time conference with its own network and a championship game, the influx of cash will allow them to complete the facility upgrades they need to compete for top level talent on the national level.

And that brings us back to USC, the reigning king dick among the South schools. The Trojans are in a bit of a down period now thanks to the Pete Carroll regime, but it would be a mistake to think this will be any more than a bump in the road of USC football dominance. Even with the school's scholarship reductions and bowl ban, head coach Lane Kiffin still brought in the fourth-ranked class of 2011 and have several top prospects on board for the class of 2012.

It might take a year or two before USC re-emerges as a perennial contender for the national title, and it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a few years of 8- and 9-win seasons out of the Utes as they develop recruiting inroads with the top talent of the classes of 2013 and 2014.

But if you're look a couple of years down the line at which two schools in the South will emerge as the powers to beat, you're looking at USC and you're looking at Utah. And although they haven't played each other since 2001, you might just be looking at the birth of a great new rivalry.

Will it be Texas/Oklahoma? Probably not. But give it time. It might just be something special.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 11:57 AM | Comments (0)

August 5, 2011

Sports Q&A: The Randy Moss Quiz

Randy Moss was born in:
a. a manger
b. a test tube
c. a 1973 Country Squire station wagon
d. Rand, West Virginia

Moss' middle name is:
a. Quaid
b. Travis
c. Mud
d. Gene

In high school, Moss was a basketball teammate of:
a. "Vanilla Ice" Jason Williams
b. "White Wrapper" Jason Williams
c. "Pale Guider" Jason Williams
d. "White Chocolate" Jason Williams

Moss had a scholarship to Florida State:
a. offered and sweetened with cash and sexual favors
b. turned to dust
c. used as toilet paper
d. revoked

Moss attended college at:
a. his leisure
b. most, two days a week
c. varying intervals
d. Marshall

In college, Moss studied:
a. political science
b. leisure studies
c. critical theory
d. character issues

Moss' favorite type of bread is:
a. Italian
b. French
c. cornbread
d. loaf

When Moss announced he had MS in 1999, he was referring to:
a. multiple sclerosis
b. my Sharona
c. minimal strain
d. mad skillz

Moss called his 2005 simulated mooning of a Green Bay Packers end zone crowd:
a. unfortunate
b. regrettable
c. liberating
d. the "crack back block of cheese"

FOX announcer Joe Buck called Moss' mooning display:
a. a turn-on
b. a Sir Mixalot song gone very bad
c. the defining moment of his own career
d. disgusting

Moss often spoke of "burning one." By "one," he meant:
a. a timeout
b. a bridge
c. a Raiders jersey
d. a joint

Name the phrase that a coach has not said to Moss:
a. Jesus Christ, Superstar!
b. Is that all you got?
c. You're so athletic, it looks like you're not even trying.
d. Please, take my daughter's hand in marriage.

During his eventful football career, Moss made a habit of beating:
a. cornerbacks
b. safeties
c. raps
d. girlfriends

Moss considers Terrell Owens a(n):
a. contemporary
b. equal
c. nuisance
d. VH1 diva

In his career, Moss has worn:
a. No. 84
b. No. 18
c. No. 81
d. out his welcome

In the final game of the 2004 season in Washington, with the Vikings down by two and preparing to attempt an onside kick, Moss famously:
a. hailed a taxi
b. ordered pizza
c. maced a line judge
d. walked off the field

To Moss, an example of good coverage is:
a. Deion Sanders
b. Charles Woodson
c. Ty Law
d. A du-rag

The "Randy Ratio" was:
a. a measurement of libido
b. Mike Tice's sole claim to fame
c. a failure
d. a Viking strategy to throw the ball to Moss 40% of the time

Over his NFL career, Moss caught:
a. all kinds of hell from Cris Carter
b. the attention of several law enforcement agencies
c. very few passes from Oakland quarterbacks
d. 153 touchdown passes

During a 2002 traffic incident in downtown Minnesota, Moss:
a. squirted a parking meter with Gatorade
b. was found to have marijuana in his possession after being stopped for running a stop sign, and subsequently charged with a "rolling" stop
c. signed a traffic ticket with Fran Tarkenton's name
d. bumped a traffic control officer with his car

During a verbal altercation with Tom Brady last year, Moss allegedly told Brady to cut his hair because it made him look like:
a. he needed a hot oil treatment
b. a bitch-slapping was in order
c. Fabio
d. a girl

Moss is co-owner of a NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series team called:
a. Truck That Motorsports
b. Half-Speed Motorsports
c. Hit and Run Racing
d. Randy Moss Motorsports

On August 1, 2011, Moss announced:
a. his rebirth as a voodoo priest
b. his intention to make a half-hearted run for Congress
c. the NFL could kiss his behind
d. his retirement

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 1:07 PM | Comments (0)

August 4, 2011

Peyton's Little Brother

It's easy to devalue Eli Manning. Not judged as a stand-alone, athlete but compared to his "face of the league" older brother, it is easy to be viewed as second best. It also doesn't help that on the day he became the number one NFL draft pick he threatened to take his ball and go home rather than playing for the team choosing him. This, combined with his hayseed "aw shucks" Mayberry RFD demeanor and a continued tendency to throw "oh shit" interceptions, inspires little confidence that he will ever be an elite professional signal-caller.

While looking deeper into the career of Peyton's little brother doesn't suggest an arrival in Canton anytime soon, it clearly shows that the man called "Easy" has been greatly underestimated by the fans, by the media, and even by the other players in the National Football League.

As good a place as any to make the case for Manning as a top-10 quarterback is a comparison of his statistics to those on the NFL Network's "Top 100 Players of 2011" list. Voted on by the players, 12 QBs made the cut. And though impossible to know whether ballots were based on longstanding reputation or recent results, the former Super Bowl MVP with NY on his helmet wasn't even invited to the dance.

While difficult to make a beyond a reasonable doubt comparison between players at any position, doing so for quarterbacks is arguably even more difficult. This is so because the position is obviously affected by the health and quality of the team's offensive line, its receivers, and its running game. Even so, looking at the 2010 numbers of the last five QBs chosen on the "Top 100 Players" list — Donovan McNabb, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Tony Romo, and Matt Ryan — Manning the younger is as good as and arguably better than any of them.

Given that Romo only played six games and McNabb 13, Eli compiled more passing yards and threw for more touchdowns than any of the gang of five. Out of that group, he was second only to Romo in completion percentage and was superior to "Matty Ice," the 52nd-best player on the NFL Network's list, in every passing category except for quarterback rating and number of interceptions. Even in a comparison to No. 41 on the list, Ben Roethlisberger, Manning threw for more touchdowns, significantly more yards, and had a higher completion percentage.

Additionally, Manning has surpassed 4,000 yards the past two seasons, has improved his completion percentage every year since entering the league, and as a full-time starter, has never missed a game due to injury.

Despite these accomplishments, Eli's propensity to force throws leading to interceptions has reduced his quarterback rating statistically and perceptually. And although his 2008-2009 average of 12 picks was in line with other top quarterbacks playing home games in outdoor stadiums, last year's number was 25% higher than his next highest total during the Super Bowl season of 2007. Yet the greatest reason for last season's spike in interceptions was not solely a lack of care and certainly not a lack of ability; it was a lack of quality receivers.

Although every season for every team is a war of attrition, it would be difficult to find a franchise with a greater number of significant injuries affecting one unit than those impacting the Giants' receiving corps in 2010. Clichéd but true, Big Blue's injured reserve roster and weekly "out" list read more like a script from ER or a small town telephone book than anything else.

Ramses Barden, touted as a potential Plaxico Burress clone, broke his ankle and missed the final seven games of the season. Promising rookie Victor Cruz played only three games due to a severe hamstring injury. Speedster Dominik Hixon tore his ACL at the team's first practice and missed the entire campaign. And Pro Bowler Steve Smith, initially out with a partially torn pectoral muscle, came back only to severely injure his knee, resulting in micro-fracture surgery.

With Big Blue turning into big black and blue, the team was forced to find anyone capable of fogging a mirror to catch passes. And with the second coming of Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin nowhere to be found, Duke Calhoun, an undrafted free agent, Derek Hagan, cut by the Giants at the end of training camp, Devin Thomas, claimed off waivers, and Michael Clayton of the Omaha Nighthawks attempted to fill the musical chairs receiver void.

True, for most of the season, Eli could look down the field to find Mario Manningham his number three receiver and Hakeem Nicks his number one, but even Nicks missed a quarter of the season with injuries. To this deflection-happy receiving unit, add a patchwork offensive line down to its third string center, and the season could have easily spiraled out of control. Yet while throwing to castoff and never-were receivers too rarely open and too often at the wrong place and wrong time led to picks, it also led to winning 10 games and narrowly missing the playoffs.

Apologists for Eli Manning notwithstanding, no one is suggesting that he is an elite player on the level of Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Michael Vick, or certainly his brother. Based on his body of work, the numbers don't suggest that. However, the numbers also don't suggest that he is a middle-of-the-road quarterback singularly finding his mojo in 2007, either. Eli is better than that. And with the NFL exhibition season just beginning, perhaps it's time for fans, the media, and for players around the league to recognize that he is more than practically perfect Peyton's little brother. Far more.

Posted by Neil Bright at 2:15 PM | Comments (7)

Who Can Challenge in the U.S. Open Series?

Given the dominance at the major tournaments by Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray, it's a surprise when anyone outside this quartet makes a run at a tournament. So, with that in mind, I aim to look at who could do well during the rest of the U.S. Open Series, which culminates with the U.S. Open itself.

Mardy Fish

The world No. 8 is probably the best of the rest on the hard courts, given his track record and recent form. Last week, he reached the final of the Farmers Classic and despite losing to Ernests Gulbis, he will be looking to have a very promising U.S. Open Series. He's been the runner-up at the Cincinnati Masters twice in his career, including last year. After which, he went onto reach the fourth round of the U.S. Open, though he did reach the quarterfinals in 2008.

Given that he's never beaten Nadal or Djokovic, he probably wouldn't relish playing them, but with one win against Federer, and with questions about Federer's form, he may be more confident going up against the Swiss. Fish also has a winning record against Murray (4-3). In fact, Fish has won the last three of their meetings.

Ernests Gulbis

I'll be honest, I wouldn't have considered putting him on the list had he not won the Farmers Classic. The thing with Gulbis is that he can be brilliant one day and awful the next, but on a good day, he is capable of beating a lot of really good players on tour, as proven last week when he showed some fight having to come from one set down against Fish. Earlier in the tournament, he also ousted former U.S. Open winner Juan Martin del Potro.

Perhaps the appointment of Guillermo Canas may just be the key to unlocking the potential of Gulbis.

Juan Martin del Potro

The former U.S. Open champion is still on the comeback trail, so we may be expecting too much from him, but the top guys won't be looking forward to the thought of playing him. He pushed Djokovic at Roland Garros and Nadal at Wimbledon, demonstrating that he's lost none of the hitting power that he's used in the past to blow opponents off the court.

Losing the quarterfinals to Ernests Gulbis was a shock. Del Potro, however, is strong enough to put the result behind him and move onto the next tournament. In 2009, he surprised us all when he went on an amazing run by winning the Legg Mason, then the Canada Masters, and finally the U.S. Open. Given that and his undoubted talent, he can't be discounted.

Alexandr Dolgopolov

The Ukrainian may prefer clay courts, but his best major performance to date came at the Australian Open earlier this year. En route to the quarterfinals, he beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Robin Soderling in five set encounters. In both matches, he lost the first set. This shows determination to comeback and the stamina to hang in there for such a long time against two of the game's top players.

He's only just coming over to the Unites States after playing a couple of clay court tournaments in Europe, one of which he won. When he does arrive, his fighting style and wide array of impressive shots will most likely light up the crowds. His game is made for a late-night game at Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Grigor Dimitrov

This pick is crazier than Gulbis and I can't even explain why I've picked him, but I just a feeling that Dimitrov will do something.

Obviously some credible challengers, such as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Robin Soderling, have been omitted, but I decided to only name five people and wanted a few dark horses to keep an eye on.

Posted by Luke Broadbent at 1:22 PM | Comments (1)

August 3, 2011

Selling Canton

After an offseason saturated by labor coverage, the NFL season has sprinted out of the blocks. But lost in the shuffle of Nnamdis and Naanees, a small detail has been ignored.

Every year since 1967 (and the four years before 1966), the NFL season kicked off in Canton, Ohio, at least in spirit, if not chronologically. The game has developed into an appropriate punctuation of Hall of Fame Weekend, signaling the transition from offseason, represented by the induction ceremony of retired greats, to the excitement of current players bringing in the coming season.

But 2011 will not be like all those previous years, because the first casualty of the better-late-than-never NFL CBA is the Hall of Fame Game. Oh sure, the NFL will certainly find a way to make up the $1 million hit the hall itself took by not having the game. But the vendors and hospitality firms of Canton will not be so lucky.

The key to negotiations is brinkmanship, a five-dollar word for the willingness to threaten the other side with mutually harmful actions. For the owners and players, brinksmanship was embodied by how close to missing game revenue they were willing to go. This is why a settlement before late July was very unlikely; each side felt that by waiting, it had the potential to reach a more favorable deal based on the other side's fear of missing games.

What is very telling about the negotiations is which deadline ultimately drove the two sides to make a deal. It was not the threat of losing games (as the cancellation of the Hall of Fame Game shows), but rather the threat to the owners of losing games in their own stadiums. By responding to this specific threat and not the loss of games in general, the owners (and indirectly, the players) spat on Induction Weekend.

This is not a populist plea for the little guy or an overvaluation of the good old days. If the NFL announced today that the unofficial start to football season had outgrown Canton, with its high school stadium and a too-small airport, it would be a logical, if cold, business decision. Have the game in Las Vegas as part of an industry convention, or just sell it to the highest bidder. But that's not what the owners or players did.

Canton and the Hall of Fame Game have come to represent the traditions of professional football. It has been an oasis in a long desert of summer, the driest sports season. And yet, while the owners snapped into deal-making mode by the looming prospect of lost preseason revenue, they never thought twice about leaving behind a tradition with roots nearly as deep as the Super Bowl.

There are two key myths the 2011 NFL lockout and its resolution have debunked. The first is the wildly exaggerated "year-round" NFL. For all of the front office griping, somehow teams have signed free agents and draft picks and started training camps concurrently in a one-week window. In previous seasons, this took half of the calendar year.

If nothing else, the past two weeks have shown that activity of the NFL offseason is intentionally diluted to benefit the league itself and its media partners. TV networks (for example, the very one owned by the NFL), printed publications, and websites have hours and inches to fill every day. If the NFL offseason were condensed every year, as it has been this year, those outlets could not spread the news across the seven months between games. They would have to find other content to fill that void.

Reciprocally, the league benefits from this arrangement, too. Did your favorite team sign a top free agent in March? It kind of makes you want to buy his jersey, right? Or maybe your team drafted a quarterback of the future in April, signed him in June, and showed him off at training camp in August. Those would all be great times to buy season tickets.

The second myth the owners and players exposed is their dedication to the game's tradition. At this time next year, the game's legends will head toward Northeast Ohio for the 2012 Induction Weekend. At this point, Roger Goodell will trumpet the great lineage of the game and how much it means to the NFL. Don't believe it.

The NFL is a business — a gloriously successful business — and, as such, it makes profit-driven decisions. And that is exactly how it got to be such a thriving league. But by casually dismissing the 2011 Hall of Fame Game, both the players and owners sent a clear message. To channel Curt Schilling's 2001 evaluation of Yankee Stadium, Tradition and History are just two (poorly named) strippers down the road in Canton who, thanks to the NFL, are working a little harder to make ends meet this year.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 12:54 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 20

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Carl Edwards — Edwards took a run through the Indianapolis Motor Speedway grass, damaging the front splitter of the No. 99 car and setting him back in the field with 33 laps to go. Forced to resume in fuel conservation mode, Edwards went the rest of the way without pitting and finished 14th. He remained atop the point standings, and leads Jimmie Johnson by 11.

"How is a spin through the infield grass like my free agent negotiations?" Edwards asked. "In both cases, there's a lot of 'green' up ahead. I've had more money thrown at me than the Dale Earnhardt, Jr. merchandise trailer."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson raced in the top five at Indianapolis for most of Sunday's Brickyard 400, but like many other drivers, fell victim to cautions that sabotaged pit strategies. After pitting for fuel and four tires late, he crossed the line 19th as Paul Menard posted his first Sprint Cup win.

"I can certainly relate to the advantages of having the financial backing of a large home improvement chain," Johnson said. "Paul Menard's win at Indianapolis was a huge surprise. There are those that say Menard's win had everything to do with the advantages of having financial backing from his billionaire father, John Menard. I say give Paul some credit, not only for his driving, but also for serving as the impetus to the Menard's chain of stores' brand new slogan: "Menard's: Where You Can Buy Anything."

3. Kyle Busch — Busch survived two incidents, one with Tony Stewart on pit row, the other with the wall, and bounced back to finish 10th at Indianapolis, scoring his 12th top-10 result of the year. Busch is now fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 16 out of first.

"One thing's for sure," Busch said, "the wall at Indy smacks harder than Richard Childress."

I can't help but ponder the possibilities of having Carl Edwards as a teammate here at Joe Gibbs Racing. I could teach Carl a thing or two, and when that goes sour, he could teach me a lesson."

4. Kevin Harvick — After struggling with a tight-handling car for much of the race, Harvick and the No. 29 team gambled on pit strategy, coming in for a splash of fuel under green on lap 129, which allowed them to reach the finish without another stop. He finished 11th as Richard Childress teammate Paul Menard took the Brickyard 400 victory.

"Congratulations to Paul Menard," Harvick said. "It's refreshing to hear a driver thank his sponsor and really mean it."

5. Jeff Gordon — Gordon took the runner-up spot at Indianapolis, finishing second to surprise winner Paul Menard, denying Gordon his fifth Brickyard 400 win. Gordon is seventh in the Sprint Cup point standings, 52 behind Carl Edwards.

"Despite the money trail," Gordon said, "I still couldn't catch Menard. "I knew with a few laps to go I wouldn't be able to catch him. As Brickyard 400's, as well as Sprint Cup championships, go, I knew I was running out of time to win my fifth."

6. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth led the Roush Fenway Racing charge at Indianapolis, finishing fifth at the Brickyard to post his seventh top-five result of the year. He improved one spot in the point standings to fifth, and now trails Carl Edwards by 16.

"I may lack style," Kenseth said, "or a wealthy benefactor, but I don't lack substance. I haven't finished out of the top 20 since early May. I've got no problem being called 'Mr. Consistency.' Heck, I'm just glad that anyone calls me 'Mister.'"

7. Tony Stewart — Stewart was up front and in charge with 15 laps to go, but had to pit, knowing the No. 14 Office Depot Chevrolet couldn't make it on fuel. He settled for 6th and moved up two places in the point standings to ninth, 73 out of first.

"Normally," Stewart said, "I'm not one to play it conservative, unless it involves an attractive female politician with delusional views on American history and family values. Sadly, the state of American politics requires that the speaker of that statement to 'be more specific.'

"But there's no room for politics in NASCAR, although I do love a good party. If I use the term 'bi-partisan,' it's usually to describe punching Kurt Busch with my right and left hands."

8. Kurt Busch — Busch's No. 22 Shell/Pennzoil Dodge suffered damage when he dove through the infield grass to avoid Landon Cassill's spinning No. 51 car. The damage bent the splitter upwards into the grill, hindering airflow and causing an overheating problem. Repairs left Busch with serious handling issues, and he eventually finished 20th after a late stop for fuel. He tumbled three spots in the points to sixth and is now 18 out of first.

"I was not happy with my car," Busch said. "And as you know, when I'm not happy with my car, I often say a 'blessing,' which is often replete with vulgarity. But nothing I've ever said is as vulgar as a pre-race blessing containing the words 'boogity, boogity, boogity' and 'smoking hot wife,' among others. I'm appalled, that I haven't been attending church all these years."

9. Ryan Newman — Knowing a win was unlikely given his circumstances at the Brickyard 400, Newman pitted with 29 laps to go for three seconds of fuel and rallied to post a 12th-place finish. It was another strong showing for Stewart Haas Racing after he and teammate Tony Stewart finished 1-2 at Loudon on July 17th. Newman is now eighth in the point standings, 64 out of first.

"This is one case," Newman said, "in which 'Rocket' fuel slows you down."

10. Denny Hamlin — After an engine change during Friday's practice, Hamlin started from the rear of the field on Sunday. He worked his way through the field, but like many others, fuel mileage spoiled any chances for the win. After a late stop for fuel, Hamlin crossed the finish line 27th, and now sits 11th in the point standings, 95 out of first.

"I'm in a very precarious points position," Hamlin said. "Luckily, the new Chase wildcard spots work in my favor. However, ince winning at Michigan on June 19th, I've finished 37th, 13th, 11th, 3rd, and 27th. That's taking the term 'a win to fall back on' a bit too literally."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 10:02 AM | Comments (0)

August 2, 2011

Eagles on the Rise

We're used to the NFC East making headlines in free agency; it seems to happen every year. Dallas and (especially) Washington go nuts, wheeling and dealing, signing guys a couple years past their primes to big contracts, signing guys way past their primes to even bigger contracts ... we all know the routine. Washington has made headlines for a couple of big trades, but the real player so far is the Philadelphia Eagles.

We're used to Washington making waves in the offseason, because (1) the team is usually pretty bad, so a shake-up seems necessary, and (2) Daniel Snyder is a moron. But the Eagles went 10-6 last season and won the NFC East. Why are they making radical changes?

In this case, simply because those changes make them better. A week ago, I would have predicted Philadelphia to fall back into the middle of the NFC pack. Now, they've unloaded a backup (QB Kevin Kolb) for an impact DB (Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and they've signed three huge free agents, CB Nnamdi Asomugha and defensive linemen Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins. Ultra-talented Vince Young, who is probably an upgrade over Kolb, was signed as a free agent.

That's a radical re-tooling, but it also represents substantial upgrades at impact positions. The Vince Young signing actually might be my favorite. Young was a headcase in Tennessee, but he was also Rookie of the Year, a Pro Bowler, and far more successful than Kerry Collins. Michael Vick takes a ton of hits, both because he runs so frequently and because he gets sacked a ton. Vick is 31 now, and that's not old for a quarterback, but it's close to quitting time for most running backs. I really doubt that Vick can make it through 16 games, so having a good backup is essential. But the Eagles replaced the inconsistent Kolb, whose last outing with the team, in Week 17, was a disaster, with Young and Rodgers-Cromartie, a great move if you can pull it off.

Rodgers-Cromartie and Asomugha join new draft picks Jaiquawn Jarrett and Curtis Marsh in a defensive backfield that also includes four-time Pro Bowler Asante Samuel. There are rumors that Samuel could be headed out of town, but even if he leaves, the team now has a dynamite secondary in place. Perhaps even more importantly, the team has upgraded its defensive line. Babin, who posted 12.5 sacks with the Titans last season, will line up opposite Trent Cole, creating nightmares for opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators. Jenkins, a 3-4 DE with Green Bay, will probably line up inside for Philadelphia, joining Babin, Cole, and Mike Patterson on a defensive line that — at least on paper — is probably the NFC's best.

Some good players are gone. Adding all those cornerbacks doesn't replace strong safety Quintin Mikell, who signed with the Rams. Longtime kicker David Akers joined the 49ers, and punter Sav Rocca, as of this signing, is a free agent. Stew Bradley, an effective middle linebacker when he was healthy, is also gone (to Arizona; an awful lot of former Eagles have joined the NFC West), with no one obviously ready to step in and replace him.

But the upgrades at defensive line and cornerback immediately keep the Eagles competitive at the highest level. Whenever so many top players are new to the team, though, there are chemistry questions. Like which has more electrons, Curium or Einsteinium? Sorry, nerd humor. But do the Eagles have a leadership gap? Brian Dawkins and Donovan McNabb are gone, Akers is gone, Jim Johnson is dead, and several other respected veterans are no longer with the team. The Eagles have several high-profile players, like Vick, Young, and DeSean Jackson, who have struggled to keep their heads on straight in the past. Will those guys keep it together in a locker room that may be feeling a bit of a leadership gap?

And what about on-field chemistry? How long will it take Young to learn a new offense? If Vick goes down in Week 3, will Young be ready to step in for him? What about a defense with so many new starters, probably about half of them free agents or draft picks? How long before they gel? That's a lot of question marks for a team some are pegging as an early Super Bowl favorite.

Of course, the wild card is quarterback play, and whether Vick is healthy or not, the team obviously can't expect a repeat of last year's performance, so I don't see Philadelphia as the team to beat in the NFC (gun to my head, Green Bay and New Orleans, but it's barely August — check back with me in a month), but I do think the Eagles have done enough that they deserve to be the early favorites in the NFC East.

I don't think Kevin Kolb is a bad player, but I don't believe he's the next Matt Schaub, and for Philadelphia to land Rodgers-Cromartie in the trade was a steal. Asomugha, Babin, and Jenkins are all high-impact free agent signings, and if the team can still tackle after the losses of Bradley and Mikell, Philadelphia's defense could be the best in the conference in 2011 ... provided that the chemistry is there. Too many question marks for me to anoint them as a Super Bowl favorite, but certainly a contender in the shallow NFC.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 2:19 PM | Comments (3)

Joe Torre, the Next MLB Commissioner?

Joe Torre, former Major League Baseball manager of no less than five MLB teams, as well as a former 17-year MLB player, has been making his way through the maze of MLB executive life in 2011. Torre was appointed on February 26, 2011 by current MLB Commissioner Bud Selig as Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations. He also serves as the commissioner's liaison to general managers and field managers of all 30 MLB teams.

Sporting a playing career over that 17 year period, Joe Torre was a catcher, first baseman, and third baseman for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, and New York Mets. He enjoyed a .297 lifetime batting average, hit over .300 five times, was a nine-time all-star and became the National League's Most Valuable Player (MVP) in 1971 with a .363 batting average, 230 hits, 24 home runs, and a National League-leading 137 RBI that year.

In 1977, Torre became the first MLB player-manager since 1959 when he took over the helm for the NY Mets. He remained with the Mets through 1981. In 1982, Torre went on to manage the Atlanta Braves through 1984. After broadcasting for the then-California Angels for almost six seasons, Torre returned to managing, but this time in St. Louis with the Cardinals from 1990-1995, prior to Tony La Russa's rein there.

While not terribly successful as a National League manager, Torre had 696 wins and 847 losses with all three clubs while there. He apparently transformed his managerial style in 1996, going to and winning his first world championship with the NY Yankees that year. And Torre was to repeat it with them three more times in 1998, 1999, and again in 2000. In all, the Yankees made it to 12 postseasons; every season that Joe Torre managed in NY, including six world championship appearances.

Had Joe Torre known how to bottle the secret of his success, he would now be one of the world's wealthiest men. And although he managed to get the L.A. Dodgers to the 2008 and 2009 National League Championship Series, he simply did not have the talent nor the financial resources afforded him by the NY Yankees.

Today, Torre's new responsibilities are centered upon on-field operations, on-field discipline, over-seeing umpiring, and helping the commissioner to regroup with a totally revamped executive lineup. In fact, Joe Torre was such high a priority for Selig to hire that he retrofitted the entire executive hierarchy in order to close the deal.

There are seven executives that headline MLB's corporate masthead and Joe Torre is one of them. The list includes: Allan H. (Bud) Selig, Commissioner of Baseball; Jimmie Lee Solomon, Executive VP, Baseball Development; Tim Brosnan, Executive VP, Business; Rob Manfred, Executive VP, Labor Relations & Human Resources; Jonathan Mariner, Executive VP & Chief Financial Officer; John McHale, Jr., Executive VP, Administration & Chief Information Officer; Joe Torre, Executive VP, Baseball Operations.

Not unlike a prodigy ball player or top-10 prospect expected to excel and fast-tracked to the major leagues, Joe Torre has enjoyed a similar trajectory since February 2011.

And never before in the modern era of MLB has a MLB commissioner so accommodated one individual geographically, allowing for Torre — a New York resident until he moved west to manage the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2008 — to conduct his business from a satellite office in Los Angeles, rather than relocating back to NY. And shunning recently renovated MLB headquarters' offices would not normally be the best way to expect to ace an interview.

On the one hand, Joe Torre's selection could be considered a no-brainer. But on the other hand, a restructuring of other long-standing executives looked unseemly and cost several MLB employees their jobs. It also gave the impression that this was solely done to find a spot for Torre by Selig.

As such, some in MLB questioned Torre's qualifications. While a beloved figurehead in many quarters throughout baseball, many believed that the only phone he knew how to dial was the one in the dugout to either the clubhouse or the bullpen.

But Torre's appointment was far more the shake-up rather than as couched as a mere replacement for Bob Watson, who was VP, Rules and On-Field Operations, for many years. Watson supposedly retired for health reasons at the end of the 2010 season. Or perhaps Watson chose to walk away at that time rather than to face the same fate encountered by his colleagues.

To wit, three senior officials were fired: Mike Port, VP of Umpiring; Ed Burns, VP, Administration; Darryl Hamilton, Senior Specialist, On-Field Operations. In addition Joe Garagiola, Jr., who retained his title of Senior VP, was dealt a demotion and a major pay cut and no longer serves in a supervisory capacity for MLB. His main job responsibility is defined as that of "dean of discipline." Meanwhile, Torre had no executive nor supervisory experience in order to earn his rise to the top.

Torre accepted an unverified $2 million annual base salary, as MLB reserves the right to not disclose salaries of executive personnel. His new underlings are Kim Ng, former assistant GM Manager with both the NY Yankees and the L.A. Dodgers, and his "point man" is former Arizona Diamondbacks assistant GM Peter Woodfork.

But the question that needs to be asked and the topic discussed over the next year is whether Joe Torre is being groomed as the next Commissioner of MLB? Will overseeing field operations and umpiring operations as well as a conduit between Selig and general managers manifest to that position?

The next question is: assuming the 30 team owners like Torre as much as Selig does, is Torre up to the challenge to become the next MLB commissioner?

Some might say — making an analogy to politicians — that he could not possibly do a worse job than his predecessor did. But is that what MLB really needs?

Undoubtedly, the commissioner of a professional sports league is no more than a face for the collective owners, and must present an image of dignity without improprieties, and Torre could do that.

But given the $8-$10 billion yearly business that MLB has become, it will require an acute business mind to allow MLB to eventually join the 21st century, where the rest of us arrived over a decade ago.

And for all of the acuity that Joe Torre has as a field manager, former player, and generally well-liked guy, being a goodwill ambassador for MLB is perhaps the more apt title for Mr. Torre, rather than that of a high-powered executive.

As much as Bud Selig's critics — this journalist among them — feel that he lacks insight and perspective on how to keep future generations engaged and passionate about the game of baseball, unless the next Commissioner of MLB can answer that question first, he need not apply for the job, nor should he want it.

Lastly, perhaps Bud Selig should have no influence at all as to who becomes the next Commissioner of MLB — as did Joe Torre with his recommending Don Mattingly as the 2011 manager for the L.A. Dodgers.

How about — much like when a new GM comes in and hires his own manager and staff — that the MLB owners and even fans have a say about who the next commissioner is and that we start out fresh in 2013 without any Friends of Bud's?

That is assuming, of course, that Bud Selig is ready to walk away at the end of his contract in 2012.

One can only hope!

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 11:47 AM | Comments (0)

August 1, 2011

The Run Home

Through the day before the trade deadline, the yearly cutoff for non-waiver deals has seldom felt less significant. A large part may relate to what is happening in the NFL, where the recently concluded lockout has dovetailed into a frantic free agency period. About as many big names in football have changed places over the last week as have relocated in baseball over the entirety of the 2011 season.

The biggest names to be traded in the week leading up to the deadline were Carlos Beltran and Hunter Pence. Both are quality players with above-average numbers, and should be able to help the contending Giants and Phillies, respectively. For Beltran, playing for the defending champions represents a departure from the high expectations he could never live up to, placed upon him by Mets fans and his MVP-caliber contract. For Pence, despite being uprooted from his native Texas, he moves from a team that has lost more than two-thirds of its games to the National League favorite.

Ubaldo Jimenez, a 19-game winner in 2010, was dealt to Cleveland for four prospects and represents the biggest pitching name to be moved in the past week. However, Jimenez has struggled at times in 2011, going just 6-9 with an ERA around 4.50. If you takeaway his Zack Greinke-esque breakout of last year, Jimenez is a pitcher with an ERA of about 4. He should be a very serviceable addition to the Tribe's rotation, but the majority of his career shows that he is not likely to be the ace Cleveland wants.

Despite the fact that the trade deadline doesn't always have blockbuster deals, it does signify that the regular season has only two months remaining and that pennant races are about to heat up. Each club has just about 55 games left to play, and regardless of whether teams have made deals at the deadline, every club knows about what they have roster-wise heading into the final weeks. Thus, it is a good time to look ahead to the ultimate stages of the season to see which contending teams are most likely to have success and which ones are the most susceptible to falling off due to a tough stretch run.

(Note: I define contending teams as those within seven games of first place in their division or the wild card as of July 30. The number of games back is as of July 31. Only games to be played on August 1 or later are counted in each tally.)

AL East

Boston Red Sox (lead AL East)
Games remaining: 56
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .503
Games against teams over .500: 36
Record against remaining teams: 43-25 (.632)

New York Yankees (trail BOS by 2 games, lead AL wild card)
Games remaining: 56
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .501
Games against teams over .500: 30
Record against remaining teams: 36-29 (.554)

Tampa Bay Rays (trail BOS by 10.5 games, trail NYY by 8.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 55
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .534
Games against teams over .500: 39
Record against remaining teams: 24-29 (.453)

If next year's likely playoff format of having two wild cards from one league were in place this year, all three of these teams would have a good shot at making the playoffs. Since it's not, the Rays will almost surely be on the outside looking in as the Yankees and Red Sox will likely play on in October. Neither games deficit is impossible to overturn for the Rays, but Tampa Bay has to play a much harder schedule, facing the Red Sox 10 times, the Yankees nine times and the Rangers six. Over two-thirds of the Rays' games in the last two months are against teams with winning records.

AL Central

Detroit Tigers (lead AL Central)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .473
Games against teams over .500: 19
Record against remaining teams: 34-15 (.694)

Cleveland Indians (trail DET by 1.5 games, trail NYY by 9.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 57
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .496
Games against teams over .500: 22
Record against remaining teams: 25-24 (.510)

Chicago White Sox (trail DET by 3 games, trail NYY by 11 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 56
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .487
Games against teams over .500: 29
Record against remaining teams: 27-37 (.422)

Minnesota Twins (trail DET by 6 games, trail NYY by 14 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .507
Games against teams over .500: 29
Record against remaining teams: 29-29 (.500)

The Tigers and Indians play each other 12 times from now until the end of the season, and this division may very well be decided by who wins the preponderance of those contests. However, Detroit is in the catbird's seat based on schedule and previous results. The Tigers have, by winning percentage, the easiest run home of any contender. Even better for the Tigers is the fact that their record against the remaining schedule is also the best of any AL contender. Yet, given the weaker records of the teams in the Central compared to the top teams in the East and West, all of the four teams listed will have plenty of opportunities to rack up victories against sub-.500 competition.

AL West

Texas Rangers (lead AL West)
Games remaining: 53
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .541
Games against teams over .500: 32
Record against remaining teams: 32-18 (.640)

Los Angeles Angels (trail TEX by 2 games, trail NYY by 5.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 53
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .488
Games against teams over .500: 23
Record against remaining teams: 27-22 (.551)

A funny thing happened as Texas was trying to run away with the division with a 12-game winning streak across either side of the All-Star Break: the Angels kept pace. As a result, the Angels have a prime opportunity to take advantage of an easier schedule than the Rangers while also playing them 10 times. The Rangers play first or second-place teams in the other two divisions 16 times, while Los Angeles only plays the same clubs on six occasions. One factor working in the Rangers' favor is that they have been excellent this season against the teams they have to face in order to win the division again.

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies (lead NL East)
Games remaining: 55
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .503
Games against teams over .500: 27
Record against remaining teams: 41-28 (.594)

Atlanta Braves (trail PHI by 5 games, lead NL wild card)
Games remaining: 53
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .499
Games against teams over .500: 24
Record against remaining teams: 26-24 (.520)

The NL East looks a lot like the AL East: a first-place team that has been the favorite to reach the World Series since spring training and a second-place team with a decent buffer in the wild card. Both the Phillies and the Braves have improved in the last week by acquiring former Astros, Pence for Philadelphia and speedy outfielder Michael Bourn for Atlanta. One would have to favor both clubs to make the postseason, meaning that any intrigue in the division race would concern home-field and the right to play the weakest division champion in the Division Series.

NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers (lead NL Central)
Games remaining: 53
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .483
Games against teams over .500: 29
Record against remaining teams: 38-23 (.623)

St. Louis Cardinals (trail MIL by 1.5 games, trail ATL by 5.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .500
Games against teams over .500: 32
Record against remaining teams: 39-28 (.582)

Pittsburgh Pirates (trail MIL by 3.5 games, trail ATL by 7.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 56
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .478
Games against teams over .500: 26
Record against remaining teams: 31-25 (.554)

Cincinnati Reds (trail MIL by 6.5 games, trail ATL by 10.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .466
Games against teams over .500: 19
Record against remaining teams: 33-32 (.508)

The NL Central is likely to be the best race in baseball in the final two months. Three teams are separated by less than four games, and four have no more than seven contests between them. The Pirates, the unquestionable feel-good story of the 2011 season, are in the mix after 19 straight losing seasons, adding to the battle's significance. The race is likely to ebb and flow constantly, as the Brewers, Cardinals, and Pirates all play each other at least 10 times in August and September. Even though the top three are favored, fourth-place Cincinnati cannot be ruled either, especially as the Reds have a great opportunity to make up ground in the next four weeks. A three-game set against Pittsburgh from August 19-21 is the only time the Reds will play a team above .500 until August 29.

NL West

San Francisco Giants (lead NL West)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .475
Games against teams over .500: 20
Record against remaining teams: 34-26 (.567)

Arizona Diamondbacks (trail SF by 3 games, trail ATL by 4.5 games in wild card)
Games remaining: 54
Remaining opponents' winning pct: .486
Games against teams over .500: 21
Record against remaining teams: 31-23 (.574)

Given the deserved amount of attention the Giants have received this year as defending champions, it has constantly surprised me this season to look at the standings and see that the Diamondbacks are within touch. If San Francisco has a couple of bad weeks during the rest of the season, it's easy to see where the Diamondbacks could take advantage. Arizona will need better pitching to push the Giants all the way, however, as the D-Backs have only the 12th best geam ERA in the National League. There is no decided schedule advantage to be had for either team, and each has played well against upcoming opposition. San Francisco and Arizona play nine more times, including a three-game series early this week.

Through the first two-thirds of the season, the divisions in baseball have been remarkably tight. Four of the six divisions feature two game leads or less, while the other two are separated by no more than five games. If that pattern holds up throughout August and September, the pennant races and the final days of the season should be nothing short of exhilarating.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 2:55 PM | Comments (3)

Remembering Stefan Edberg's Last Hurrah

We are once again in a slow period in the world of professional tennis, especially on the men's side. Compared to the excitement of 2011 so far, with Novak Djokovic's rise to number one, dethroning both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, how else would you classify a series of tournaments in Europe on clay courts and a few hard court tournaments on U.S. soil, squeezed between the end of Wimbledon and the "real" beginning of the pre-U.S. Open hard court season with Canadian Open and Cincinnati Masters titles?

Chalk that up to the long list of reasons why Wimbledon should move back a week. Not only would that give grass court season an extra week of relief, but it would effectively shorten these weeks of minor tournaments where you see the likes of Marcel Granollers and Alexandr Dolgolopov win titles.

Since only a limited amount of tournaments are on TV during this time, I usually find that this period is a good time to catch up on some reading, especially tennis literature if possible. In my old collection of articles that I used to cut and keep in a mid-sized "treasure chest" until the Internet came along, I found the report of Stefan Edberg's win over Pete Sampras in the 1992 U.S. Open final match. It was only three paragraphs, with a happy quote from Edberg and the quick summary of the final day of the tournament. Yet I knew from memory that there was so much more to that victory of Stefan Edberg.

The 1992 U.S. Open would be the last Slam title of the Swedish "Prince of Tennis." It was a triumphant run for several reasons. He was the holder of the title; in 1991, Edberg ran through the draw capturing his fifth Slam title, never losing a set in his last four matches, while defeating admirable opponents like Michael Chang, Ivan Lendl, and Jim Courier, and only losing six games in the final. But history books were destined to have a much different version for the 1992 edition, albeit the winner remaining the same as 1991.

First of all, Edberg was having a mediocre 1992 Slam season by the standards set in his preceding year. He lost in the finals of the Australian Open, but he was out in the first week of Roland Garros, and even worse for him, he failed to reach the semifinals of Wimbledon for the first time since 1986. The number one ranking that he kept until April of 1992 was also lost to Jim Courier, well before the U.S. Open arrived.

The only positive aspect was Edberg's signs of returning to form in the few American hard court tournaments leading up to the U.S. Open. He won the New Haven tournament and reached the semifinals of two others. For those authorities who claim that Slams are all that count for top players, the gentleman from Sweden would have another story to tell; he would later claim that these tournaments played a vital role in his renewed confidence when he entered the two weeks at Flushing Meadows.

He was facing a formidable American generation of top players composed of Courier, Chang, Sampras, and Andre Agassi. Lendl, Boris Becker, and Michael Stich were also around playing some championship quality tennis. It is thus no surprise that Edberg would end up needing more than confidence to finally come out with the trophy in his hands at the end of one of the most exhausting series of matches the Open Era has ever witnessed.

After first three rounds of fairly comfortable wins, Edberg would have never guessed what he would face for the rest of the tournament before triumphing heroically. In the fourth round, he needed almost four and a half hours to defeat a young and up-coming Richard Krajicek, including coming back from a break down in the fifth set to win it, 6-4. It was only the beginning. Next was the giant task of facing Ivan Lendl in the quarters.

Ivan Lendl was characterized few days earlier as a player "who is just bunting the ball back" by Jimmy Connors, who also added casually that he was "nothing like he used to be." Of course, this was after Lendl had defeated Connors in the second round. The announcer Mary Carillo, who did not take Connors' statements lightly, was not amused and became virtually a cheerleader for Lendl during his match against Edberg. Why do I remember that so vividly? Because when Lendl surmounted an improbable comeback against the Swede after having gone down two sets to none, Carillo was ready to declare Lendl the winner in the beginning of the fifth set, repeating several times sarcastically "not bad for a guy who is just 'bunting the ball back', hein?"

Perhaps it was because I got tired of Carillo, but I remember pulling for Edberg when that fifth set started. Although it did not look good for Edberg when he went down a break in the fifth, once again he found the energy and the drive to pull himself out of the hole and closed out the match in the decisive tiebreak. It was the second match in a row that he was pushed beyond the four-hour limit.

But the most dramatic match was yet to come. In the semifinals, the ultimate fighter Michael Chang was energized at his first chance to reach a final in a Slam since the famous 1989 French open victory. The first four sets went to distance: 6-7, 7-5, 7-6, 5-7. Having just won a close fourth set, Chang was pumped up and Edberg looked tired. Therefore, when Chang went up 3-0 in the fifth set, the dream run seemed to have to come to an end for the Swede. Yet, Edberg dug deep to save two points to go down 4-0 and won the game. Same thing happened the next game and Edberg was now only behind 2-3. He mounted a final push, overcame his fatigue, and came out of an epic match that lasted five hours and 26 minutes.

Three matches lasting over a total of 14 hours, three fifth sets in a row where he came back from a break down, and yet, Edberg was still not done. There was one more hurdle before the trophy: Pete Sampras, a player who had just recently beaten comfortably Edberg in Cincinnati. This set was not to last five sets. In fact, it looked like Sampras would win it easy after winning the first set. Edberg won the second, then the third set proved to be decisive. Edberg won it in a tiebreak and cruised in the fourth set against a discouraged Sampras. It was also a key match in the career of Sampras. He admitted later that it was the kind of loss that made him realize how much he hates losing. The same Sampras went on to win 14 out of 17 Slam finals in his career.

Let's summarize this incredible accomplishment: Edberg played four matches in a row, remained on the court a total of over 20 hours, and captured the last Slam title of his career to write history. Fittingly, he recaptured the number one ranking at the end of the tournament. He would never win another Slam and would retire in 1996 as one of the most beloved tennis player of all times. Needless to say, the 1992 U.S. Open run of Stefan Edberg is not likely to be rivaled, and one that needs to be reminded from time to time, especially in these times of minor tournaments dominated by tennis players who are not recognizable by most tennis fans.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:09 AM | Comments (4)