Baseball's half-way point has been reached, and the pennant races are shaping up to be tight in just about all the divisions down the stretch. The standings at this juncture of the season show the leaders being chased by second-place teams no more than 3.5 games behind. That's not very much ground to make up with more than 80 games remaining.
Last season, the races were similarly close at the All-Star Break, with 4.5 games being the farthest behind of any second-place team. Three teams within that range ended up making the playoffs, each of them winning their division. So, what could the rest of this season have in store for us?
First, let's compare this season's mid-schedule standings with last year's. There are a couple of major surprises this year, with Milwaukee leading the NL Central (tied with St. Louis), Pittsburgh at only a game behind the Brewers and Cardinals, and Cleveland being just a half-game behind Detroit for the AL Central lead. At this time last season, the Brewers were pretty much out of the race at 8.5 games behind Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh and Minnesota were languishing in the basement of their divisions at 18 and 15.5 games out, respectively. None of these teams looked like they would do much this season, as all continued to fall farther behind through the end of the season.
Meanwhile, none of last year's playoff teams that aren't winning their divisions are too far out to make a run for it again this year. Minnesota is the farthest behind at 6.5 games back, followed by Tampa Bay at 6 games out and Cincinnati behind by 4 games. Atlanta is the wild card leader in the NL, 3.5 games behind the Phillies in the East. Minnesota was 3.5 games back in the AL Central at the break, San Francisco was 4 games out in the NL West, and Philadelphia was 4.5 games behind in the NL East. Each of them rode hot streaks through the summer to take their respective divisions. That could happen again this year.
Two teams that led their divisions at the break last year ended up missing the postseason — the White Sox and Padres. Chicago still has an outside chance at winning the AL Central this season at 5 games behind, while San Diego holds down the bottom spot in the NL West, 12 games out of first place.
All that being said, this year's races are shaping up to be quite exciting and entertaining. Look for Texas and Los Angeles to come down to the wire in the AL West, with the same between Detroit and Cleveland in the AL Central. Cincinnati is slumping at the moment, but don't count them out of the race for the NL Central just yet.
The Brewers have blown two midseason leads in the past five years, and the last time the Pirates were this close, Bill Clinton was president.
St. Louis could conceivably end up the sole winner of that division, as the wild card race appears to belong to the NL East. Also, the Braves are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now and could easily catch the Phillies for that division's crown.
The Red Sox appear to be pulling away from the Yankees in the AL East, but one can never count out the Pinstripes at the half-way mark. They, too, could end up the wild card winner in the AL. Cleveland is heading in the opposite direction of the Tigers in the AL Central, and the Giants look to be pulling away from the D-Backs in the NL West. Those races are clearly not over, but it appears momentum may be on the side of the leaders right now.
But, as any follower of baseball knows, it's difficult to speculate who will emerge as the postseason participants when the races are this close. And if you're not an avid follower of the game, now is as good a time as any to become one. This season could end up being one of the most exciting, down-to-the-wire season's we've seen in some time.
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