If you've been following men's tennis throughout 2011, the fact that Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic met in the finals of Wimbledon was no great surprise. In fact, it was almost to be expected, despite the fact that six-time champion Roger Federer came in as second favorite after beating Djokovic at Roland Garros. Djokovic and Nadal had met in four finals in 2011 before Sunday, Djokovic taking them all. Still, the Serb was considered the underdog, despite the French Open loss to Federer being his only defeat during an incredible 2011 season.
It's time to forget about Djokovic being an underdog to anybody for the foreseeable future.
The men's game for several years has been defined by the Federer/Nadal duopoly. And why not? Until this year's Australian Open, the two players won 21 of 23 grand slam events dating back to 2005.
With Nadal and Djokovic now holding the last six slam titles, it's likely that the current top two will occupy a similar position of dominance.
Where does that leave Federer in the upper tier of the sport's best? Some have included the all-time Grand Slam champion as part of a big three with Rafa and Nole. On recent form, especially in the slams, it's tough to see how such a distinction is all but recognition of a superlative past decade.
Don't get me wrong; Federer is still producing the kind of results that everyone but the top two and maybe Andy Murray would kill for. While his astonishing streak of 23 straight grand slam semifinals ended over a year ago, he has still made it to 29 straight slam quarters. His best is good enough to beat the (now) No. 1 player in the world, as shown in Paris. However, he's a step slower than his graceful best. His return game in the biggest of matches and points now leaves a little bit to be desired. Once he starts being outplayed in a match (see the Wimbledon quarters loss against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga as a case in point), he doesn't seem to have the extra gear he once possessed. At his best, only Nadal was able to beat him consistently. In 2011, players around the top 10 and above can beat him if they play a great match.
Of course, writing off Federer completely is a cautionary proposition. The last time so many seemed to doubt him, he won three of the next four slams and got to the fifth set in the final of the other. A likely outcome for the remainder of Federer's career would be to win Masters Series events at a semi-regular clip and possibly win another Slam towards the end of his career like Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi did.
However, the onset of a Djokovic/Nadal order in tennis is far more about Djokovic's rise than Federer's decline.
After several years of being a mainstay in the top five, but never seriously challenging for the No. 1 ranking, Djokovic made some significant changes to his game and his diet. His serve in the past could at best be called nervous and at worst a train wreck. His serve today won't be confused with Ivo Karlovic or Andy Roddick, but it's a now a significant weapon instead of a liability. Djokovic has always been one of the best returners of serve in the game, and that has continued to be the case. His groundstrokes have always been solid, but even those have improved during his 49-1 2011 season, especially his forehand.
Djokovic's movement and court coverage, never poor before 2011, have improved as well. Sometime late last year, Djokovic's nutritionist, Igor Cetojevic, discovered that the Serb had an allergy to gluten. It's unclear to me if Djokovic had celiac disease, but he cut out all foods with gluten anyway. The weight Djokovic lost along with a less starch-filled diet have seen him be able to get to just about any ball and have plenty left over in the tank afterwards.
When Djokovic and Nadal play now, Rafa looks to be the more tired one as the match clicks over into the later sets. This is an incredible development from a player who once was panned by nearly everyone in the tennis world for having poor conditioning, forcing him to retire from best-of-five set matches. A common joke before this year was that Djokovic only needed to retire from the US Open to achieve the Career Grand Slam in retirements.
An interesting footnote to Djokovic's gluten-free lifestyle is that the breakout star of the women's draw at Wimbledon, Sabine Lisicki, recently went to a gluten-verboten regiment after suffering from severe cramps at Roland Garros. Lisicki was found to have a similar allergy to Djokovic. After changing her diet, she won a Wimbledon tune-up event on grass in Birmingham, England and then made the semifinals at SW19. It's intuitively preposterous to suggest, but one wonders if cutting out the substance could help improve the fortunes of players on both tours.
For Rafa, Djokovic's emergence must worry the Spaniard on a significant level. In Djokovic, there is now a player who can match Rafa shot-for-shot, cover as much ground and looks to be conditioned nearly as well. Before 2011, Nadal could have forced Djokovic into chasing his brilliant groundstrokes and been successful (much as he did in last year's US Open final). In Sunday's match, Djokovic played the longer points better than Nadal, forcing the 10-time slam winner into many crucial errors. The success on longer points has been a common thread for Djokovic in the two players' five 2011 meetings.
On Monday, it was revealed that Nadal suffered a hairline fracture in his left foot during his fourth round match with Juan Martin Del Potro. He is scheduled to miss about six weeks, putting his return date a couple weeks before the U.S. Open. For the most ardent Rafa supporters, the injury will serve evidence that no one has a chance to beat Nadal when he is fully fit. However, such a claim ignores the fact that injuries, given Rafa's hard-charging, all-out style and previous are going to happen. If Rafa were to somehow dial back his game, he would be changing what made him such a great champion to begin with. Even if he comes back in August and is less than 100%, he will still be one of the favorites to win at Flushing Meadows.
Last year, when Rafa was winning three consecutive slams, Federer's form was beginning to drop and Djokovic not at the level he is now, the Era of Rafa looked to be underway. As much as dominance in sport is to be heralded, dominance by two people in the prime of their careers who can push each other to new heights is something to be appreciated at another level.
Djokovic's superhuman 2011 record won't continue forever, as Rafa has insinuated in interviews. Not even Federer at his 2004-2007 peak was putting together 49-1 stretches regularly. Nadal is too good not to find tactics that will work against Djokovic as they play more. When he does, tennis will be at an even better place than it currently is.
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