Last month, I wrote about Total Statistical Production (TSP), a stat-based rating system for basketball players. Two weeks ago, I wrote about using the system to effectively evaluate multiple seasons and careers. If you haven't read those pieces yet, go check them out now, or this one won't make any sense.
Total Statistical Production is intended to evaluate individual player seasons. Because of its emphasis on floor time and production, though, it is not ideal for analyzing careers. TSP compares a player to zero, so anything that is not zero (or negative) improves his score. If a player could somehow go 48 minutes and pull down one rebound without compiling any other statistics, he would have a positive score for that game.
TSP2 (explained last week) adds two extra steps to emphasize peak performance and per-minute production. It is a useful and effective method for evaluating players over multiple seasons. However, it gets away from the linear weights model by bringing in per-minute numbers (TSP/MP). TSP2 is guessing in a way that the original formula wasn't. It comes up with numbers that make sense and says, "This is close enough." Usually, it is. But there's an alternative.
The other method involves replacement value — if this guy wasn't on the floor, what kind of production would his team be getting instead? Statheads in every sport struggle in trying to define replacement value. In the NBA, sixth, seventh, and eighth men typically average between 0.0017 and 0.0018 TSP/MP, but most sixth men are pretty good, and at 0.0017 whole teams would rank below replacement level. Even a standard of 0.0015 TSP/MP still rates many decent players as "below replacement level", like they should be D-League. Last season, the Nets collectively averaged less than 0.0015 TSP/MP. I realize the Nets were awful, but replacing them with the UConn Huskies or the Maine Red Claws wasn't going to improve the situation.
Let's set 0.00125 TSP/MP as replacement level. Almost no one with significant playing time is so inefficient. With this figure in place, we can reward a player for the value he provides on the floor, using this formula: (TSP/MP - 0.00125) * MP. Take Total Statistical Production per Minute Played minus Replacement Value, and multiply the result by the player's minutes. We'll call this statistic TSPOR (tee-spore), Total Statistical Production Over Replacement. Here's how it works, using Derrick Rose's 2010-11 season as an example. Rose's TSP/MP was just under 0.0023, and he played 3,026 minutes. So our math is (0.0023 - 0.00125) * 3,026 = 3.14. Rose's value was 3.14 TSP over replacement. This is roughly equivalent to 314 points Rose gave the Bulls compared to a D-League player. The full top 10 for the 2010-11 regular season:
1. Kevin Love, 4.99
2. LeBron James, 4.81
3. Dwight Howard, 4.70
4. Chris Paul, 4.55
5. Pau Gasol, 4.50
6. Dwyane Wade, 3.71
7. Zach Randolph, 3.65
8. Blake Griffin, 3.60
9. Kevin Durant, 3.52
10. Al Horford, 3.49
In making the case for TSPOR, one of the things I feel like I need to do is show that it produces reasonable results. They needn't conform exactly to conventional wisdom — and in fact probably shouldn't, or the stat doesn't tell us anything we don't already know — but they shouldn't show anything ridiculous. Let's start by looking at the top players of the past few decades. For rating multiple seasons, we still need a way to emphasize peak performance, so let's square the value of each individual year, just like we did with TSP2. Thus, when we calculate Love's career TSPOR, his 2010-11 is valued at 24.9. The best regular-season players of the 1980s, according to TSPOR:
1. Magic Johnson, 303
2. Larry Bird, 287
3. Michael Jordan, 274
4. Charles Barkley, 218
5. Moses Malone, 199
6. Hakeem Olajuwon, 174
7. Alex English, 147
8. Robert Parish, 140
9. Clyde Drexler, 132
10. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 131
I've written this before, but one of my favorite things about TSP is that it doesn't require a positional adjustment. It's not biased toward rebounds, so it's fair to everyone, not just big men. The top five players on this list give you an all-star team: Magic at point, Jordan playing the two position, Bird the three, Barkley at power forward, and Malone at center.
The 11th-15th ranked players of the '80s: John Stockton, Kevin McHale, Fat Lever, Larry Nance, Adrian Dantley. That all seems pretty reasonable to me. The list leans toward the latter part of the decade, but that's largely because the 1984 rookie class included Jordan, Barkley, Olajuwon, and Stockton, all of whom are top-five all-time at their positions. The 1990s:
1. David Robinson, 298
2. Karl Malone, 258
3. John Stockton, 214
4. Michael Jordan, 213
5. Shaquille O'Neal, 200
6. Hakeem Olajuwon, 195
7. Charles Barkley, 179
8. Scottie Pippen, 123
9. Gary Payton, 108
10. Shawn Kemp, 98
Next five: Patrick Ewing, Clyde Drexler, Dikembe Mutombo, Horace Grant, Reggie Miller. Note that while Jordan doesn't rate at the top of either decade, he's near the top of the list for both the '80s and the '90s. Barkley and Olajuwon also make the top 10 of both lists. The next group shows TSPOR leaders from 2000-10 — the list does not include last season (2010-11):
1. Kevin Garnett, 221
2. Dirk Nowitzki, 196
3. LeBron James, 163
4. Tim Duncan, 152
5. Shawn Marion, 149
6. Kobe Bryant, 134
7. Steve Nash, 122
8. Jason Kidd, 113
9. Chris Paul, 107
10. Shaquille O'Neal, 105
Next five: Elton Brand, Amare Stoudemire, Dwyane Wade, Tracy McGrady, Dwight Howard. The fast-paced Phoenix Suns rate perhaps a little higher than they should, but Marion is a cinch top-10 player from the last decade, shockingly underrated. Over these 10 seasons, how many players scored at least 10,000 points, with 4,000 rebounds, 1,500 assists, 750 steals, and fewer than 1,500 turnovers? Only Marion.
What about season-by-season? Below are TSPOR all-star teams for each of the last 30 seasons. Each year has two guards, two forwards, a center, and a sixth man (the highest-scoring player not already listed). No distinction is made between point guards and shooting guards, or small forwards and power forwards, and in some instances I've made judgement calls on where a player should be listed.
TSPOR All-NBA Teams
1981-82
G: Magic Johnson, LAL
G: Sidney Moncrief, MIL
F: Julius Erving, PHI
F: Alex English, DEN
C: Moses Malone, HOU
6: Artis Gilmore, CHI
MVP: Moses Malone
1982-83
G: Magic Johnson, LAL
G: Sidney Moncrief, MIL
F: Larry Bird, BOS
F: Alex English, DEN
C: Moses Malone, HOU
6: Artis Gilmore, CHI
MVP: Magic Johnson
1983-84
G: Magic Johnson, LAL
G: Isiah Thomas, DET
F: Larry Bird, BOS
F: Adrian Dantley, UTA
C: Bill Laimbeer, DET
6: Alex English, DEN
MVP: Larry Bird
1984-85
G: Magic Johnson, LAL
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Larry Bird, BOS
F: Calvin Natt, DEN
C: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, LAL
6: Isiah Thomas, DET
MVP: Larry Bird
1985-86
G: Magic Johnson, LAL
G: Alvin Robertson, SA
F: Larry Bird, BOS
F: Charles Barkley, PHI
C: Hakeem Olajuwon, HOU
6: Adrian Dantley, UTA
MVP: Larry Bird
1986-87
G: Magic Johnson, LAL
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Larry Bird, BOS
F: Charles Barkley, PHI
C: Hakeem Olajuwon, HOU
6: Kevin McHale, BOS
MVP: Larry Bird
1987-88
G: John Stockton, UTA
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Larry Bird, BOS
F: Charles Barkley, PHI
C: Hakeem Olajuwon, HOU
6: Clyde Drexler, POR
MVP: Michael Jordan
1988-89
G: Magic Johnson, LAL
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Charles Barkley, PHI
F: Karl Malone, UTA
C: Hakeem Olajuwon, HOU
6: John Stockton, UTA
MVP: Michael Jordan
1989-90
G: Magic Johnson, LAL
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Charles Barkley, PHI
F: Karl Malone, UTA
C: David Robinson, SA
6: Patrick Ewing, NY
MVP: Michael Jordan
1990-91
G: John Stockton, UTA
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Charles Barkley, PHI
F: Karl Malone, UTA
C: David Robinson, SA
6: Magic Johnson, LAL
MVP: Michael Jordan
1991-92
G: John Stockton, UTA
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Karl Malone, UTA
F: Charles Barkley, PHI
C: David Robinson, SA
6: Horace Grant, CHI
MVP: David Robinson
1992-93
G: John Stockton, UTA
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Karl Malone, UTA
F: Charles Barkley, PHI
C: Hakeem Olajuwon, HOU
6: David Robinson, SA
MVP: Hakeem Olajuwon
1993-94
G: John Stockton, UTA
G: Mark Price, CLE
F: Shawn Kemp, SEA
F: Karl Malone, UTA
C: Shaquille O'Neal, ORL
6: David Robinson, SA
MVP: Shaquille O'Neal
1994-95
G: John Stockton, UTA
G: Gary Payton, SEA
F: Karl Malone, UTA
F: Charles Barkley, PHO
C: David Robinson, SA
6: Shaquille O'Neal, ORL
MVP: David Robinson
1995-96
G: Penny Hardaway, ORL
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Karl Malone, UTA
F: Charles Barkley, PHO
C: David Robinson, SA
6: John Stockton, UTA
MVP: David Robinson
1996-97
G: John Stockton, UTA
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Grant Hill, DET
F: Karl Malone, UTA
C: Hakeem Olajuwon, HOU
6: Gary Payton, SEA
MVP: Karl Malone
1997-98
G: Gary Payton, SEA
G: Michael Jordan, CHI
F: Karl Malone, UTA
F: Kevin Garnett, MIN
C: David Robinson, SA
6: Shaquille O'Neal, LAL
MVP: Karl Malone
1998-99
G: Jason Kidd, PHO
G: Gary Payton, SEA
F: Karl Malone, UTA
F: Tim Duncan, SA
C: Shaquille O'Neal, LAL
6: David Robinson, SA
MVP: Shaquille O'Neal
1999-2000
G: Gary Payton, SEA
G: Vince Carter, TOR
F: Kevin Garnett, MIN
F: Karl Malone, UTA
C: Shaquille O'Neal, LAL
6: Chris Webber, SAC
MVP: Shaquille O'Neal
2000-01
G: Ray Allen, MIL
G: Vince Carter, TOR
F: Kevin Garnett, MIN
F: Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
C: Shaquille O'Neal, LAL
6: Shawn Marion, PHO
MVP: Shaquille O'Neal
2001-02
G: Gary Payton, SEA
G: Andre Miller, CLE
F: Tim Duncan, SA
F: Elton Brand, LAC
C: Shaquille O'Neal, LAL
6: Kevin Garnett, MIN
MVP: Tim Duncan
2002-03
G: Jason Kidd, NJ
G: Kobe Bryant, LAL
F: Tracy McGrady, ORL
F: Kevin Garnett, MIN
C: Shaquille O'Neal, LAL
6: Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
MVP: Kevin Garnett
2003-04
G: Sam Cassell, MIN
G: Kobe Bryant, LAL
F: Peja Stojakovic, SAC
F: Kevin Garnett, MIN
C: Shaquille O'Neal, LAL
6: Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
MVP: Kevin Garnett
2004-05
G: Steve Nash, PHO
G: Stephon Marbury, NY
F: Kevin Garnett, MIN
F: Shawn Marion, PHO
C: Amare Stoudemire, PHO
6: LeBron James, CLE
MVP: Kevin Garnett
2005-06
G: Steve Nash, PHO
G: Kobe Bryant, LAL
F: Shawn Marion, PHO
F: Kevin Garnett, MIN
C: Ben Wallace, DET
6: Elton Brand, LAC
MVP: Shawn Marion
2006-07
G: Steve Nash, PHO
G: Kobe Bryant, LAL
F: Shawn Marion, PHO
F: Dirk Nowitzki, DAL
C: Amare Stoudemire, PHO
6: Kevin Garnett, MIN
MVP: Shawn Marion
2007-08
G: Chris Paul, NO
G: Kobe Bryant, LAL
F: LeBron James, CLE
F: Amare Stoudemire, PHO
C: Dwight Howard, ORL
6: Kevin Garnett, BOS
MVP: Chris Paul
2008-09
G: Chris Paul, NO
G: Dwyane Wade, MIA
F: LeBron James, CLE
F: Pau Gasol, LAL
C: Dwight Howard, ORL
6: Kobe Bryant, LAL
MVP: Chris Paul
2009-10
G: Steve Nash, PHO
G: Dwyane Wade, MIA
F: LeBron James, CLE
F: Kevin Durant, OKC
C: Dwight Howard, ORL
6: David Lee, NYK
MVP: LeBron James
2010-11
G: Chris Paul, NO
G: Dwyane Wade, MIA
F: LeBron James, MIA
F: Kevin Love, MIN
C: Dwight Howard, ORL
6: Pau Gasol, LAL
MVP: Kevin Love
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