MLB Trade Deadline: The Sellers

For every "yin," there is a "yang." For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. And for every list of MLB trade deadline "buyers", there is a counter-balancing list of sellers that are necessary to fit those buyers with able-bodied veterans.

The following list details the 14 teams that fall into the category of "have-not" as the 2011 MLB non-waiver trade deadline nears. As was the case with part one of this two-part series, this second entry is based firmly in the realm of my opinion and is not necessarily tied to any inside information.

The Unmotivated Sellers

This first group of sellers represents those teams that are less traditional "seller," but rather quite likely to take a wait and see approach as the July 31st deadline nears. Comprised of teams either overachieving but realistic about their prospects for sustained success in 2011 or playing to their expected potential as sustained middle-of-the-pack representatives, the expectation would be for this set of franchises to not be too anxious in upsetting their proverbial apple cart by turning over their roster, making these guys more like "stayers" than "sellers."

Washington Nationals — Manager turmoil aside, it does appear that the Nats are finally turning the corner from league door mat to legitimate up-and-comer. With an improved rotation and a solid lineup, don't expect to see the Nationals move any of their youngsters. A couple names that may make sense if the right deal surfaces are pitchers Jason Marquis and Tom Gorzelanny, as well as veterans Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Ivan Rodriguez. Of that group, only Marquis and Hairston would be players that I think Washington may be willing to part ways with as Gorzelanny may have value beyond this season and I-Rod provides a level of leadership that may prove too valuable to trade away.

Toronto Blue Jays — The good news for Toronto is they seem to have found a legitimate ace in pitcher Ricky Romero and they have put together a bullpen that has the depth of talent to keep the Jays competitive all season long. Additionally, this is a team that does have a Cy Young contender in the aforementioned Romero, as well as a true MVP candidate in slugger Jose Bautista. Unfortunately, Toronto also plays in a brutally difficult division, which makes any trade-deadline deal a relatively fruitless effort. Expect the Jays to continue to build during the offseason, though 1B/OF Adam Lind may be one player that they put on the market in hopes of finding a contender willing to overpay for his services.

Pittsburgh Pirates — For the first time in nearly twenty years, the Pirates actually have a reason to think positive about their play on the field. Missing one of their key offensive lynchpins in 3B Pedro Alvarez, the Bucs have managed to parlay consistent starting pitching, timely hitting, solid base running, and clutch late-inning work into a winning record (at least at the time of this article hitting the web). While nobody of sane mind or body would think that Pittsburgh will remain in the race for the duration, ending the season over .500 has to be a goal for the Pirates based on their recent inability to do so, so unhinging their bus from the current roster doesn't make a lot of sense. Still, Matt Diaz is one bat off the bench that they could part with, as is 1B Lyle Overbay since they do have Garrett Jones taking the majority of those innings, but beyond that, there doesn't seem to be any reason to trade anyone else.

Seattle Mariners — If Seattle played in the AL East, they likely would be more aggressive of a seller. If they were in the AL Central, they'd likely be a more willing shopper as they do have some young chips that could be dealt away to net them a slugging left fielder or third bagger or a middle infielder of substance. As it stands with the Mariners playing in the AL West, however, they are more likely to stand pat and remain patient than to make any big moves as either a buyer or a seller. Two names that may get some play as trade options are Chone Figgins and Jack Wilson, but both would be relatively inconsequential moves.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim — The Angels came into 2011 cautiously optimistic but surely have realized that their team, as currently comprised, is not a contender. Well, I don't expect a massive sell-off to go down; reliever Scott Downs is a player who I would anticipate being sent out of town, as he is a guy that can bring back some talent in return. While OF Vernon Wells has been a disappointment to date, I'd be surprised if the Angels give up on him this season and Abreu is a guy that likely wouldn't bring the necessary return to make moving him a winning proposition.

The Tweeners

This next group of teams aren't quite in a position where they will be overly cautious in sending players out of town, but they aren't outright sellers looking to turn over their roster, either. Anticipate those teams listed below to send some bit players out of town, but I'd be surprised if any big names find themselves packing up their lockers for "greener pastures."

Kansas City Royals — Stop me if you heard this before. In 2011, the Royals are a team that has stretches where they look like a group that could make some noise and finish at or just over .500. But they also have stretches where they just can't get things right, which ultimately undoes any positive energy that their hot streaks generate. Traditionally, the Royals are prime suspects for buyers looking to grab a difference-making player come trade deadline time, but things may be different this time around as their young nucleus of Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Mitch Maier, and Billy Butler finally seem to be entrenching themselves as contributors at the major league level.

That said, the one name that is of consequence and may be leaving town is closer Joaquim Soria. Aaron Crow is a pitcher that the Royals think may be ready to step into the closer role and Soria has been streaky in 2011, making a change here far less a risk than it would have been in previous seasons. Soria would be a very inviting commodity for the Indians, who need a good closer and may want to make a splash.

Florida Marlins — The Marlins have some real nice youth in OFs Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton, along with 1B Gaby Sanchez. Their pitching staff, while inconsistent, is talented and young. In short, they won't be willing to send any of their starting pitching or those aforementioned youngsters out of town. However, one very big name may be shipped out of town simply because the timing makes sense, and that would be SS Hanley Ramirez. Ramirez has had his run-ins with management relative to his level of effort and his commitment to the team in his time in Miami and, while moving him would certainly be a major deal, it is one that makes a good deal of sense and could get the Marlins a huge return without reeking of a pure "fire sale" sort of approach that has typically been associated with the Marlins in the past. The Cincinnati Reds are the one team that may be motivated enough to deal away some very good prospects — including flame-throwing lefty Aroldis Chapman — in order to get their hands on Hanley.

San Diego Padres — The Padres are one year removed from their surprising run in 2010 and it is very clear that they are not getting the same sort of consistent performance from their pitching staff as they had a year ago, nor do they have the anchor in the lineup as they are now without superstar 1B Adrian Gonzalez. While the hope was their new middle infield of Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett and a full season of Ryan Ludwich in the outfield alongside newcomer Cameron Maybin would provide enough offensive stability to keep the Padres in contention, injuries and spotty performance has been far too prevalent for that hope to come to fruition.

Nonetheless, wholesale changes don't make a great deal of sense as it could be said that a healthy Hudson and a full season of rookie 1B Anthony Rizzo could absolutely be a realistic hope that would drastically change the 2012 outlook for San Diego. Considering that realization, it is much more likely that we will see the Pads move a few peripheral pieces, such as OF/1B Brad Hawpe and reliever Chad Qualls, than anything more substantial. Expect the typically active trade deadline players like Boston, Detroit, the Yankees, and the Cardinals to be most interested in calling the Padres as we approach the deadline.

The "Cellars"

The third and final group of "have-nots" are teams that truly need to be looking to go in a vastly different direction. Be it front office turmoil, aging core, or flat lack of talent, these final six teams are the most likely to be involved in a number of trade deadline dealings and, quite frankly, should welcome the upheaval that will come with a large scale turnover of roster.

New York Mets — Much has been made of the mess the Wilpons have made of this once proud franchise. Even with the dirty dealings of their ownership group, this team has remained relatively competitive and, at the time of this writing at least, they do still have a shot at the postseason if things were to fall just right in Flushing Meadows. But with the tumult surrounding their ownership and the reality that this is, by and large, a very old roster that continues to underperform, it is time to blow the thing up. By season's end, I would anticipate Carlos Beltran, Angel Pagan, Willie Harris, Mike Pelfrey, and Frankie Rodriguez all be wearing different uniforms.

Further, it is my contention that the time has come to part ways with SS Jose Reyes, as well. Leg problems don't bode well for a sustained future as an all-star sparkplug for Reyes and with Ruben Tejada waiting in the wings (and currently holding down the fort at 2B), they do have a viable replacement. The prospects the Mets could net by dealing away Reyes are very much necessary assets if the Mets are to rebuild without a prolonged period of really bad baseball alienating their waning fan-base — and a team like Tampa Bay is one that could stand to gain the most by making a name-brand add like pulling Reyes into their mix. Any way you look at it, the Mets are looking like a team that needs to change things up sooner rather than later.

Baltimore Orioles — I give the Orioles a ton of credit; they did go for it during this offseason. Bringing J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee, Vlad Guerrero, and Kevin Gregg into B-More seemed like a great idea at the time. Unfortunately, Lee and Guerrero are far too streaky at this point in their careers, Reynolds is a far better served as a secondary power option in a lineup than the primary option, and Gregg is what he always has been, an inconsistent closer.

So with all the effort, the Orioles are still a fourth-place team and miles behind their division leaders. The only way to break out of this vicious cycle is to bring in an influx of young talent and hope for some home runs, both literally and figuratively speaking. Lee could get some decent return, as could Guerrero, but it is Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, and Mike Gonzalez that are the most palatable targets as they can fill real needs for contenders with deep pockets and some talent in their farm systems. The Twins could use Reynolds' bat, the Rangers could be interested in Lee at 1B, and the Red Sox would love to bring the lefty Gonzalez into their bullpen.

Oakland Athletics — How screwed up are the A's? Their "official" MLB depth chart lists Conor Jackson as the starter at both first base and left field. If that's the case, I think I have some insight into why they are not succeeding on the diamond ... reminds me of an old Bugs Bunny episode ... but I digress. The A's are lacking a key fundamental skill set in their daily lineup: talent. DH Hideki Matsui is old and non-productive, OF Coco Crisp is a journeyman for a reason, and the A's have arguably the worst infield this side of Houston's Minute Maid Park.

They do have some quality young pitching depth, but this poses an additional problem in that they really don't have marketable chips to trade off outside of their pitchers, which would mean that even making moves with this staff they may be setting themselves back instead of forward.

Crisp needs to be moved to a team looking for some outfield depth (Colorado?) and Conor Jackson, David DeJesus, and/or Matsui need to be sent away for prospects. They could move one or more of their relievers to a contender such as the Cardinals — Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes, and Michael Wuertz would be the names here — to net some value, but this is a rebuilding effort that will be exactly that, an effort, if they are hoping for long-term success.

Chicago Cubs — Yes, it pains me greatly to admit — again — so early in the year that my beloved Cubbies are sellers and cellar-dwellers. This is a high-cost team that just isn't right in its general makeup. They do have some great young talent, namely SS Starlin Castro, which show promise for the future. But as long as they continue to trot high-paid players like Alfonso Soriano, Aramis Ramirez, and Carlos Zambrano onto the field, they won't be able to make the necessary changes that have to be made to sustain success and positive growth.

Ramirez is likely someone who will stay put, as he does still provide value both defensively and offensively and he does appear to show up each and every day with a commitment to winning, but Soriano must be dealt (perhaps to a team desperate for a big bat like Colorado) for whatever they can get in return, and Zambrano needs a change of scenery (the Yankees would be a very fitting destination and could provide Z the motivation he needs to focus every turn in the rotation).

Further, they need to deal away some of their other movable parts; catcher Geovany Soto is one productive player who could net some quality return as the Cubs have his heir apparent in Welington Castillo chomping at the bit to become a permanent fixture on a big league team.

The Cubs also have some pro-ready players who have netted time in the majors, but don't appear to be long-term fixtures in RP Marcos Mateo, OF Tyler Colvin, and P Casey Coleman and Randy Wells. Finally, the Cubs have a group of players who they really have to make a decision on, namely RP Jeff Samardzija, the oft-injured pitcher Angel Guzman, and the enigma that is Kosuke Fukudome, whose salary they would need to eat a great deal of in any prospective deal. Bottom line is while the Cubs do have a solid core around which to build, they need to make some very tough business decisions if they want to break the "curse" that we all hear so much about.

Los Angeles Dodgers — Call it gross misfortune, but the Dodgers are actually a team that isn't too far from being a real contender in the National League. The misfortune comes in as you assess their ownership situation — with a very clear sense of disarray in play, it is only logical to assume that their payroll will need to be slashed before the start of the 2012 season, which should lead to a significant number of moves being made between now and the end of the '11 season. One very logical move would be to package a veteran bat like Juan Uribe with an inconsistent young arm like Hong-Chih Kuo to a contender needing both (like the Chicago White Sox). Other potential deals could include veterans such as OF Marcus Thames and IFs Casey Blake, Jamey Carroll, and Aaron Miles or Ps Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda. Expect some player movement in L.A.

Houston Astros — Living in Houston, I have access to the pulse of the general fan base as it relates to the Astros, and I have to tell you that I've been quite shocked by the lack of perspective these fans have. Heading into this season, there actually was a great deal of enthusiasm from a large vein of their fandom, which is shocking to say the least. Even the most optimistic of realists could have clearly seen that Brett Myers' excellent 2011 season was a blip on the radar of an otherwise average career, that 3B Chris Johnson was not a major league talent, and that Carlos Lee was never going to regain his old form of 30 home runs and 100+ RBIs. Their bullpen was an unmitigated disaster even before de facto closer Brandon Lyon was shelved for the season and aside from Hunter Pence, their everyday lineup was about as bad as it gets in the league.

Regardless of the tenor leading into the season, reality has clearly set in and there really isn't a whole lot of positive spin that can be put on the team with the league's worst record and one of the five least prospect-laden farm systems in the game today. With a new ownership group set to take over in the coming month, it is very clear that these Houston Astros bear very little resemblance to the team that will be in place at this time next season.

Carlos Lee is an albatross that cannot be exiled short of cutting him outright (which, for my money, is the right move to send the message of change needed from the new owner), but they do have some movable parts that still have value and aren't terribly onerous in terms of their current contract situation. Wandy Rodriguez is a quality starting pitcher and a lefty, so he is very much one that needs to be in play and a team like the D-Backs or even the Yankees may come calling for Wandy. Brett Myers needs to be dealt, though his value has taken a hit from his very sub-par 2011 performance to date. Veteran middle infielders Clint Barmes and Jeff Keppinger are both decent glove-men with a proven ability to contribute off the bench, so a team like the Braves may be interested in either or both.

But their biggest bargaining chip may come at the highest PR cost and that is RF Hunter Pence. Pence is beloved in Houston, but that value may serve little purpose from a business perspective if the Astros are indeed going to transition into full rebuild mode. A team like the Phillies would most definitely overpay for a player of Pence's talent and it is that position of strength that may make a deal including Hunter an absolute necessity, regardless of the public relations hit that the team will take in moving him. It needs to be about the long-term return on investment for the new ownership, which is why ultimately I see Pence being sent out of town.

Despite the reality that many of these deals may never take place, what is clear is that the buyers and sellers in MLB have identified themselves and there should be a very active run up to the July 31st trade deadline. Sit back and enjoy what should amount to one of the more active trade seasons in several years!