Breaking Down Wimbledon 2011

The first week of Wimbledon is underway, and while the women's draw is full of question marks and unknowns, the men's draw seems to be pointing in a clear direction: one should expect the top four seeds to meet in the semis, bringing us a grass-court version of the same matchups that took place in the semis of Roland Garros on Friday, June 3rd.

At Roland Garros, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Andy Murray made it to the semifinals, losing only five total sets between them to get there. The only serious threat (apologies to John Isner fans, but his match against Nadal was at best a pleasant surprise, definitely not a serious threat for an upset at any moment of the match) to the aces making it to the semis came from Viktor Troicki in the round of 16 when he led Andy Murray two sets to love before losing in a close fifth set. Looking at the men's draw at Wimbledon, I find it hard to expect a different outcome in London.

Keeping in mind that this article is being written at the end of the first round matches on Tuesday, let's begin with the top quarter of the draw, where we find last year's champion and the top seed, Rafael Nadal. After winning his first round match comfortably against Michael Russell in the next round, he will face Ryan Sweeting, who played little less than four hours to win his first round in five sets. Then he may play against either Gilles Muller, who surprisingly has a win over Rafa at Wimbledon in 2005, or against Canadian Milos Raonic, who is considered by many to be a serious threat for any top player in the first week of a Slam. In all honesty, this is not 2005 and Rafa is not the same as he was six years ago on grass, nor is Raonic likely to beat him in a five-set match, although for one set he may be considered to have decent odds in his favor.

The rest of Nadal's quarter of the draw up to the round of 16 features Del Potro, still trying to find his form after his long recovery from injuries, nevertheless not a serious threat on grass to Nadal, and Simon, who has already faced Nadal three different times in Slams, never winning a single set. In the quarterfinals, Nadal could face a number of players; Tomas Berdych, Fernando Verdasco, and Mardy Fish are likely candidates, as well as the talented Robin Haase and the experienced Julien Benneteau. The most serious threat out of those at first glance would be Berdych, last year's finalist. However, considering Berdych's form as of late, this is a great chance for Fish to break through and get to the quarters. But on that Friday of the second week, it would be a monumental upset if Nadal was not scheduled to be on the court for his semifinals match.

Andy Murray has some potential threats in his quarter of the draw, but the serious ones all have to face each other before getting to Murray in the quarterfinals; out of Andy Roddick, Feliciano Lopez, Ivo Karlovic, and Gael Monfils, only one can possibly face Murray in the quarters. Murray has potentially Ljubicic, followed by Richard Gasquet or Stanislas Wawrinka. Out of the top four seeds, Murray has the toughest road; Roddick is always dangerous on grass, although on the decline at this point in his career, and players such as Karlovic and Gasquet are what many consider "loose cannons," capable of beating a player on a given day. However, Murray is also himself a tougher, more mature player, and I would dare any objective betting man to not pick him to face Nadal in the semis. As for me, I can't wait to see that semifinal match.

The six-time winner Roger Federer has some experienced players who have tasted success in Slams, but how many of them can possibly play a perfect five-set match to take Federer out? None, in my opinion. His second round opponent, Adrian Mannarino, enjoyed a nice upset over a fast-declining Marin Cilic in Queen's Club two weeks ago on grass, and should get Federer nice and ready for David Nalbandian in the next round. Nalbandian is an ex-Wimbledon finalist and has desirable 8-10 record against Federer — for those who don't follow tennis much, yes, that is indeed desirable record against the 16-time Slam champion. However, the last time they played was three years ago, and while Federer has declined somewhat since then, Nalbandian is only a shadow of the player that he was in 2007, the last time that he defeated Federer.

In the round of 16, the likely opponents are Isner, Nicolas Almagro, or Mikhail Youzhny. These are decent opponents, and definitely good enough to get Federer ready for tougher challenges in the quarterfinals, but nothing more. In fact, many top players prefer being challenged just enough to keep them sharp for later rounds, instead of strolling through matches before facing a top player. If Federer is one of those who wish similar things, he could not have asked for a better draw.

In the quarters, on paper, he is likely to face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Fernando Gonzales, Andreas Beck, or David Ferrer. One would think that the most serious challenge should come from Tsonga, but for some strange reason, the Frenchman decided to play tournaments both weeks leading up to Wimbledon. He did not even withdraw from the Unicef Open last week, after reaching the finals of Queen's Club that got postponed to Monday due to rain. Why he would not withdraw from Unicef Open to rest and be sharp for Wimbledon, it remains a mystery. Watching him lose his focus several times during his first round match today, I think he will regret that decision as the rounds go further. I would say that he is already facing danger in the second round if the young, explosive Grigor Dimitrov gets through his first round without exerting much effort. In any case, I look for Federer to add yet another semifinal round appearance to his career numbers.

Finally, at the bottom quarter of the draw, there is this year's star player, Novak Djokovic. The one thing that I feel the need to underline, and one that ironically I should not have to, is that Djokovic can very well be successful at Wimbledon. I insist on that because there is this bizarre notion among tennis fans that Djokovic is a weak grass-court player. For the record, he has reached the semifinals twice in Wimbledon, and only twice in his career has he failed to reach the second week; add to that, one finals appearance at Queen's Club out of the three times that he participated; then throw his recent form in the mix and you have a player who has a legitimate shot at breaking Federer and Nadal's stronghold on the Wimbledon title since 2003.

As to Djokovic's draw, I think he has the easiest road to the semis out of all the top four seeds. His toughest challenge on the way there should be Robin Soderling. The chances of Marcos Baghdatis, Viktor Troicki, Michael Llodra, Jurgen Melzer, Xavier Malisse, or Bernard Tomic upsetting Djokovic, or Soderling followed by Djokovic, are slim to none.

Does this all mean that we should turn the channel to something else until next Friday? Or simply watch the women's draw? Of course not. There are some fascinating early-round matchups, and there will be more in the second week. As I mentioned before, for example, I am looking forward to Tsonga vs. Dimitrov, or to Soderling vs. Hewitt. Just do not get your hopes up too high if you are fan of a player outside the top four and your player happens to face one of them. Finally, once that second Friday comes around, get ready for some top quality tennis between four excellent players.