Gold Cup Heats Up

In my last column, I previewed and predicted the Gold Cup. Now that the quarterfinals are set, how did I do?

At first glance, pretty good: I got seven of the eight quarterfinalists correct. I only erred in picking Guadeloupe instead of Guatemala. But then again, eight of the 12 teams in the competition make the quarterfinals, and two of the four that didn't (Cuba and Grenada) would be left off by anyone with passing knowledge of CONCACAF.

I will pat myself on the back for correctly leaving off Canada. Lots of pundits had this event as their coming-out party. You can never go wrong picking against the "Les Rouges."

What concerns me as a U.S. fan is how much they struggled in group play, and how unstoppable Mexico has been. After kicking off their tournament with a comfortable win over the Canadians, the U.S. lost to Panama. It was their first loss in Gold Cup group play ever. They didn't look much better in their win against Guadeloupe, a tepid 1-0 affair where Guadeloupe had plenty of chances and the U.S., and Clint Dempsey in particular, missed chance after chance after chance.

On the other side of the coin, Mexico has been utterly, utterly dominant, and Javier "Chicharito" Hernandez has been a 23-year-old man among boys.

Usually, it's the Mexicans who sleepwalk and stumble in the group stages, only to get their act together for the knockout rounds. Now that's what the U.S. will have to do. Fortunately, I think they can do it; for one, it's impossible to dismiss the fully-loaded U.S. national team, and fully-loaded they are with Dempsey, Landon Donovan, Tim Howard, and Jozy Altidore logging 1,042 minutes between them in the group stage, out of a possible 1,080.

Their half of the quarterfinal bracket is favorable too. They draw Jamaica in the quarterfinals, and although Jamaica has been superb in the group stage (3-0-0, upset Honduras, only team in the tournament not to concede a goal), I'm still not quite able to pick them to beat what should hopefully be a motivated U.S. squad.

If the U.S. does get past Jamaica, then the semifinal will only be easier, either against El Salvador or a Panama team I am certain the Yanks will be eager to exact revenge on.

Speaking of U.S. soccer puzzles, I don't quite understand why Altidore, who is leading the U.S. in scoring in this competition, shines so brightly with the national team and struggles so mightily in club soccer. Ever since leaving New York in 2008, Jozy has logged just three goals in 49 games in Spain, England and Turkey. Contrast that with 12 goals in 28 for the US National Team. Granted, the competition in the top flight leagues of Spain, England, and possibly even Turkey is better than the Trinidads and Cubas the Americans often have to face, but the difference in scoring rate shouldn't be THIS stark.

To wit: in roughly the same span of time that Altidore scored those three goals in Europe, he has scored 4 goals for the U.S. against Mexico, Poland, Turkey, and Spain, all four World Cup mainstays.

The other half of the Gold Cup quarterfinal bracket pits Mexico against Guatemala and Honduras against Costa Rica.

The Honduras/Costa Rica game is probably the best quarterfinal of the four. As I stated in last week's column, these two squads jockey for the third-best team in the region, and that's an important place to be, because three teams are all CONCACAF receives in the way of automatic World Cup berths.

But now, one of them won't even make the final four of this tournament. Both have something to prove, as well, after having problems in the group stage: I mentioned Honduras lost to Jamaica, but they also let Guatemala hold them to a scoreless draw. Costa Rica allowed El Salvador to draw them, and they are still smarting from their game against Mexico. After the Mexicans blew away Guatemala and Cuba, Costa Rica was supposed to give them a decent game, but instead, Mexico tossed them aside as easily as they did the rest.

It should be noted that the draws Costa Rica and Honduras allowed to El Salvador and Guatemala, respectively, are pretty embarrassing, at least on paper. Those two squads (both quarterfinalists) are the lowest-FIFA-ranked teams in the competitions in the tournament (but they both made the quarterfinals). Below Cuba. Below Grenada. That said, I submit that the FIFA rankings for CONCACAF are, uh, not correct. I implied as much in my last column. The FIFA rankings have Cuba fifth in the region, ahead of Costa Rica and Panama, fer chrissakes.

As far as the Mexico and Guatemala quarterfinal, oy. That could be ugly. If somehow, someway, Guatemala wins, it would be their greatest accomplishment in decades. The Guatemalans proved equal to their last challenge, that draw with Honduras. They also dispatched Grenada as easily as the rest of the group, which put them into the final eight. So they have some pluck. While I don't expect anything but another Mexican blowout, I will be watching eagerly. It's the ultimate David vs. Goliath matchup (you know how much I love those) and I love rooting against Mexico.

As for the rest of my predictions, I suppose I will do the honorable thing and stick with them, although of course calling for the U.S. to beat Mexico now is a lot dicier. I had Guadeloupe in the semis; I hereby replace them with Panama. Game on!