Don’t Get Your Hopes Up, Mavs Fans

Going into the 2011 NBA Finals, we should all be clear on two things: who the favorite is, and who the sentimental favorite is. Note, these are not the same team and I shouldn't have to point out which is which here. Rooting for the Miami Heat is akin to rooting for Darth Vader simply because both are incredibly powerful, entertaining to watch, and look badass in their black unis.

Surely, while LeBron James has in fact turned to the dark side by taking his talents to South Beach to pursue his championship ring, Dirk Nowitzki has remained one of the few players to remain with the same team for well over a decade since the beginning of his NBA career in 1998. Through this time, Dirk has seen perpetual mediocrity, ownership change hands to the boisterous Mark Cuban, and close friend and fellow great Steve Nash come and go. He has reached one NBA Finals, which his Mavs lost to this same Heat team, and he has seen countless other postseason disappointments that fell well short of expectations.

We've heard this story many times before in sports. The aging great still without a ring, knowing his window is closing and hoping that perhaps this one last shot will be the one that propels him to glory. It's a subplot strong enough to put a lump in a real sports fans throat, and yet...

I just cannot see any way the Mavs pull this out.

I hate to disappoint fans of the underdog, fans of the likable heroes, but Miami has too much firepower and plays too much defense. While Dallas has been heralded for playing much more solid consistent defense in this year than in the past, they have accomplished that in the Western Conference, which is more known for a speed and fastbreak game than the more physical East. As such, this does not reach the level of defense Miami has been playing throughout the playoffs any time they need to amp up the difficulty. Only once all postseason did any team score over 100 on Miami.

While Dirk has surrounded himself this year with a great deal of talent, from old standby Jason Terry to athletic forwards Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion to the outside shooting of Peja Stojakovic, and veteran point guard leadership of Jason Kidd, these are all still role players in comparison to Dirk, who remains their only star and main go-to option at the end of a close game. Dirk has played magnificently in this postseason, and yet it seems he could continue to be magnificent and still fall short.

This is because Dwyane Wade, James, and Chris Bosh, just as everyone had feared since the preseason, are firing on all cylinders together, and you can't be certain where the big basket is coming from. LeBron has had the propensity to take over the final two minutes of any game (would you prefer me to cite Game 5 against Boston, or Game 5 against Chicago?), emerging as the top dog, while Wade and Bosh have not disappointed, either, making clutch shots and stops down the stretch, as well. This brings me to my next point.

Miami has eliminated the perception of them as unable to close out games late or make clutch shots that haunted them throughout the regular season. This manifested itself most against Chicago, culminating in a last-second home loss to the Bulls in which ESPN announcer Mike Tirico shouted memorably, "The Miami Heat don't close again!" This game's final seconds featured misses of awkward, low-percentage shots from both James and Wade that seem light years short of anything they would attempt now in that situation.

So perhaps they were just playing rope-a-dope with the whole league? How could this same team make the ridiculous 12-point comeback they made in the final 3:05 against Chicago in Game 5? How could this same team score the last 16 consecutive points to close out the Celtics also in Game 5? That's not to mention two overtime victories for the team, as well. No team has even taken the Heat to a sixth game in a playoff series. Last, but not least, the Heat are now 8-0 at home in the playoffs. By the way, Miami will be having home-court advantage in these Finals.

That's not to say Dallas is anything of a slouch. The Mavs swept the defending champion Lakers, albeit a sorry shadow of the former champs were the Lakers for four games, falling apart and crumbling repeatedly in the face of adversity. They also knocked out the emerging OKC Thunder in a mere 5 games, while winning a similarly remarkable Game 4 comeback on the road. This one was a 15-point deficit with under 5 minutes remaining. Dallas won on the road in overtime.

Nowitzki has also shown a great offensive repertoire, making fade away jumpers, but also driving to the basket with authority on a consistent basis and dealing with contact very well. However, he is going to need more help than he is getting from his supporting cast. He will need one of his teammates to emerge as a star alongside him in order to counter the multiple threats of the Heat. Dirk also may be facing his most formidable foe matchup-wise in Chris Bosh. Bosh is long enough and agile enough to give Nowitzki problems getting his shot off. He also requires a fair amount of energy to guard on the offensive end.

The history of these two teams is odd in that both teams have only reached the Finals the one other time they battled each other back in '06. It was a series the Mavs seemed to have won until Wade and the Heat pre-LeBron stormed back in four straight games to take the title and leave a furious Dirk to kick at poor innocent blameless chairs on the way to the locker room.

There's no doubt many would like to see Dirk win redemption from the frustration of 2006, as well as play with fire in his eyes as he turns a personal vendetta against Miami into 50-point nights in the Finals. But if you have your hopes up for something like this, it may already be too late for you. Miami's defense is too locked in and their clutch scoring threats outnumber the Mavs. The Heat will take it again in 5.