After months of combines, practices, interviews, and debating over the best way to put the word "Wonderlic" into a joke, the NFL draft has come and gone.
And without fail, ESPN, CBS Sports, Pro Football Talk, and JoeShmoe.com put out a mock draft, trying their darndest to predict what team would pick what player and just what round Matt Millen would pass out from eating too many pretzels.
Funny thing is, I didn't see a single mock draft that was correct. There were probably hundreds of thousands of drafts and not a single person could get it right? Many of these guys make more in a week than I make in a year, and not one of them could hit it out of the park?
But then I got to thinking, "You know, the reason none of them got it right isn't because of their incompetence at predicting the draft — it's that if someone actually did get it right, they'd be laughed out of the industry."
Don't believe me?
Allow me to present to you what a mock draft would look like had all 32 picks (plus trades) been predicted correctly.
1. Carolina Panthers — Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
With the league's worst passing attack and the lowest amount of points per game, the Panthers need a change at quarterback. I think they're going to take a risk on a guy with glaring off-the-field problems and who has operated out of the shotgun his entire collegiate career. After all, making one read and then running for daylight worked in the SEC. It can work in the NFC South. All he'll have to do is pretend the defense is the University of Florida and the football is the laptop he got caught stealing in 2008.
2. Denver Broncos — Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
The Broncos have what is arguably the league's worst defense. When you have needs in pass and run defense, you have to start patching the run defense first. I think the Broncos will overlook the fact that Marcell Dareus from Alabama would immediately improve their ability to stuff the run and go with Von Miller, a talent who will allow teams to only gain 5 yards per run instead of 7 or 8.
3. Buffalo Bills — Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
It's simple: Buffalo has a terrible run defense and Marcell Dareus is the top player for any team struggling against the run.
4. Cincinnati Bengals — A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
The Bengals have one of the worst run offenses in the league and they're giving up over 24 points a game. That's why they're going to draft A.J. Green. Carson Palmer is unhappy and the No. 4 pick is the perfect place to make it up to him. Getting a franchise back in the second round is a lock for these guys and patching up a run defense that faces Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland a combined six times a year will be a cinch. After all, that's why there are seven rounds, right?
5. Arizona Cardinals — Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
You have the worst offense in the league. Your passing game is scraping the bottom of the barrel and your running game isn't much better. They've got a premier corner in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and you know what? I think they're going to draft another one! Patrick Peterson will be an Arizona Cardinal. After all, there's a whole three days to draft a quarterback. Right? Right!
6. Atlanta Falcons (from Cleveland) — Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
I have a source that tells me the Falcons are going to trade up to four draft picks to Cleveland to get their man from Tuscaloosa. Julio Jones would look great catching passes from Matt Ryan, wouldn't he? Plus, everyone knows that when you're one player away from a Super Bowl, the best thing to do is identify that player and trade half of your draft away to get him.
7. San Francisco 49ers — Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
Defensive end is a premium position and the 49ers are taking the top defensive end off my value board. He's ready to play in the NFL. His propensity towards standing upright and trying to use his speed to run around the offensive line will make his transition seamless.
8. Tennessee Titans — Jake Locker, QB, Washington
With a poor senior season, Locker is a perfect fit for the Titans. His declining play actually puts him ahead of the curve for a Tennessee organization that woefully underperforms. Also, his compilation of minor injuries will give Titans fans just enough hope to not throw their TV against a brick wall when they see him starting after four consecutive games where he threw multiple interceptions and under 150 yards.
9. Dallas Cowboys — Tyron Smith, OT, USC
Neglecting a porous defense, they will upgrade a passing attack which was already ranked sixth in the league. A top-10 pick could garner a trade which could get the 'Boys three or four draft picks, but they'll neglect quantity for quality.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Washington) — Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
They have more holes than Snooki's dress, but I think GM Gene Smith is smarter than people give him credit for and knows that a franchise quarterback fixes all that. I see them trading away a couple of their picks to grab their man from Missouri. That should sell some tickets.
11. Houston Texans — J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin
With obvious deficiencies in their pass defense, the Texans will take J.J. Watt from Wisconsin, even though Aldon Smith and Robert Quinn, a pair of more accomplished defensive ends, are still on the board.
12. Minnesota Vikings — Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State
The Vikings are in need of a quarterback and even though Ponder struggled with injuries his junior and senior season, he should stay healthy. The Vikings shrug off the critics and give Ponder, who many believe to not be worth a first-round selection, the pressure of performing like the a top-15 selection next season.
13. Detroit Lions — Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
The Lions are in desperate need of a running game (they only led in rushing three out of their 16 games), but I think they'll bypass one of the quality offensive lineman still available and go with Nick Fairley from Auburn. Forget a bulldozer like Danny Watkins from Baylor or a mammoth of an offensive tackle like Anthony Castonzo from Boston College. Fairley will pair with Ndamukon Suh nicely and give opposing offensive coordinators nightmares.
14. St. Louis Rams — Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
With an offense that ranks in the bottom third of the league in nearly every statistical category, assembling a deep rotation of defensive lineman is of the utmost concern for the Rams. I'm saying St. Louis picks Robert Quinn, who is certainly fresh after not playing a down in 2010, and adds him to the rotation of Chris Long and James Hall.
15. Miami Dolphins — Mike Pouncey, C, Florida
He's efficient, effective, and works incredibly hard. Pouncey will be a welcome addition to a Dolphins interior offensive line which only paved the way for 102.7 yards per game last year.
16. Washington Redskins (from Jacksonville) — Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
When four of your six leading receivers from last year aren't even receivers, you need to upgrade your passing corps. But Washington will look to upgrade their passing attack in the later rounds and nab their man Kerrigan at No. 16.
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland) — Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
With the third-worst pass defense in the league as your Achilles Heel, New England is going to bypass premier cornerback Jimmy Smith from Colorado and instead select his teammate, Nate Solder. Solder will anchor the offensive line for the next 10 years and step into replacing Matt Light in 2011.
18. San Diego Chargers — Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
Statistically, the Chargers had one of the best defenses in the AFC last year, but everyone who saw them play will tell you it was too sexy for its own good. That's why the Chargers will forgo adding some size and strength to its defense and pick up a 6'2" Corey Liuget to anchor the interior of their defensive line.
19. New York Giants — Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
New York will pick the best available player left on the board and select Prince Amukamara from Nebraska, even though they already have two quality veterans, Corey Webster and Terrell Thomas, in the secondary.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Adrian Clayborn, DL, Iowa
Needing a boost to their pass rush, Tampa Bay will pass up quicker defensive ends like Cameron Jordan from California and Jabaal Sheard from Pittsburgh and select 290-pound premier pass rusher Adrian Clayborn, even though lighter defensive ends would produce more in the sweltering heat of southwest Florida where Sunday afternoons in December rarely get lower than 65 degrees.
21. Cleveland Browns (from Kansas City) — Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
Colt McCoy is your starting quarterback, so naturally Cleveland is going to rely on its running game in 2011. Quality interior lineman James Carpenter, who opened holes for Mark Ingram at Alabama, is available, but stopping the run is Cleveland's priority in 2011, so I think they'll go with Phil Taylor from Baylor.
22. Indianapolis Colts — Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
The Colts desperately need a quarterback, but I don't think they'll address it in this draft. You don't replace Peyton Manning with just anyone. But you can extend his career by replacing one of the guys protecting him on the offensive line. They're going to need someone to anchor the offensive tackle position and Anthony Castonzo will do a fine job for Manning and his eventual replacement.
23. Philadelphia Eagles — Danny Watkins, OG, Baylor
I have a sneaking suspicion that the Eagles will take Danny Watkins from Baylor, a player who is a good two years older (27) than their average age (25). I know the draft is for helping to build for the future, but I think sometimes you have to build for the present, especially in the first round. So what if Watkins is already at the mid-point of his career age?
24. New Orleans Saints — Cameron Jordan, DE, California
The Saints need immediate impact and I think they'll get it from Cameron Jordan, a standout defensive end from California. Now all they need is a pounder at running back.
25. Seattle Seahawks — James Carpenter, OG, Alabama
Gabe Carimi, a young talent from Wisconsin, is still on the board, but I think they're going to take a chance with James Carpenter, a lesser-known offensive lineman from Alabama. Never mind that Carimi was a standout at a school with lesser-quality players on offense. Carpenter is experienced at paving the way for NFL-caliber players, so his transition should be seamless.
26. Kansas City Chiefs (from Atlanta via Cleveland) — Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
I'm predicting that Chiefs are going to take a huge risk and pick up the freakishly athletic Jonathan Baldwin from Pittsburgh. He hasn't been consistent in college, and he ran between 4.5 and 4.6 in his 40-yard-dash, but the Chiefs need someone opposite Dwayne Bowe and Baldwin's potential is too much for Kansas City to pass up.
27. Baltimore Ravens — Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
I predict that Jimmy Smith will fall to the very bottom of the first round and that a top team will get very, very lucky. Baltimore will be able to pair need and value perfectly and pick up what is arguably the best cornerback in the draft.
28. New Orleans Saints (from New England) — Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
... and here's where they get the guy who's going to run between the tackles. I think the knee problems are overblown. The Saints will end the first round with a stud at defensive end and Mark Ingram, a pounder who's first order of business will be to run Reggie Bush out of the Bayou.
29. Chicago Bears — Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin
I honestly think the Bears will just go with the meanest looking dude left on the board. Conveniently, this ends up being Outland Trophy winner Gabe Carimi, a utility offensive lineman from Wisconsin. Never mind that Carimi may be too tall (6'7") to get proper leverage against an ever-expanding squad of premier pass rushers in the NFC North, Gabe will more than make up for it with his work ethic and athleticism.
30. New York Jets — Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple
The Jets need some beef on both of their lines and with a recent run on offensive lineman, the best value comes on the defensive side of the ball. New York will quickly nab Muhammad Wilkerson from Temple and find a place to put him.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers — Cam Heyward, DT, Ohio State
Pittsburgh's secondary is sub-par and their offensive line is terrible at best, but I think they'll go with Cam Heyward, a perfect defensive lineman for the 3-4 scheme.
32. Green Bay Packers — Derek Sherrod, OL, Mississippi State
With deficiencies at running the ball and stopping the run, the Packers will draft Derek Sherrod from Mississippi State, marking the 10th player from the SEC chosen in the first round of the draft. Sherrod will upgrade a running game that woefully underperformed in 2010.
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