The Problems of One-and-Done

The deadline for underclassmen to pull out of the NBA draft is within the next week, on May 8. After its passage, coaches and fans will know, with the exception of some late-signing recruits and summer transfers, just exactly what their teams will look like next year. One year from now, however, the process may look drastically different.

For starters, the NBA lockout that is talked about as a near inevitability may involve negotiations about the one-and-done rule that has been the status quo for five years now. It's helpful to take this aside to say that the NCAA has absolutely nothing with this rule, nor will it have anything to do with a modification of the rule. It seems as though every single March, the NCAA tournament brings a boatload of columns and talking head sports punditry decrying how the NCAA's backwards rules force 18-year-olds to go to college unwillingly. The NCAA frankly has enough faults without being blamed for things it is not culpable.

The one-and-done rule is practically, but not literally, a synonym for one-year-in-college-and-done. Brandon Jennings played a year in Italy right out of high school before becoming First Team All-Rookie in 2010. His low shooting percentages and clashes with coaches overseas may have created more of a deterrent for high school stars to do the same. One case that does not get talked about, as an alternative to college for the one-and-done rule, is that of Latavious Williams.

Williams, a would-be Memphis signee, ended his high school career in 2009 but was a non-qualifier under NCAA rules and headed to the D-League instead. He was paid $19,000 for that pre-NBA draft year before being drafted by the Heat last June. His rights are now held by the Thunder, but he has not played a single NBA game to date.

Jennings and Williams would not have had to go through the charade of these alternate paths if the rule had stayed as it did before 2006, when high schoolers could go straight to the pros.

The argument for the NBA in implementing the age restricting was to protect high schoolers from chasing the money and being in a position where they were unready for the pro game. Yet, the effects of high schoolers leaving to the pros were almost certainly overstated both as it concerned the players' development and the college game.

From 1995, the year when Kevin Garnett chose to skip college and go to the pros until 2005, the last year high schoolers were able to enter the NBA draft, there were 39 prep-to-pro players. On average, just under four of the nation's would-be top freshmen skipped college for any given year. In that time period, there were amazing teams and players, even without some of the top high school players in the country on college teams. Furthermore, Basketball Prospectus showed in its preview of the 2010-11 college season that players going straight to the NBA from high school were not statistically discernible in their pro performance from those who have been one-and-done since 2006.

If the new NBA collective bargaining agreement (whenever it comes) changes the early entry rule, it will likely be changed to a two-and-done format. Some say that this would help the college game by keeping the best players in school for longer. Suppose, however, that a two-year rule was in place for the high school class of 2009 and John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins have the same 2010 seasons that they did for Kentucky. What is there to stop European clubs from offering hundreds of thousands of dollars/euros to play for one year before going to the NBA? Unlike Jennings, Wall and Cousins would have already been established at a higher level of play. In this scenario, the net effect on the college game is the exact same as one-and-done.

In the NFL, a rule is used where players have to be three years out of high school in order to be drafted. In just the past year, we've seen scandals related to underclassmen and money issues at North Carolina, Ohio State, and Auburn. If college basketball is burdened with more stringent NBA age requirements, there may well be more of the type unseemly behavior that college football has been used to seeing (not that college hoops is perfect by any means). There is also the issue of how limiting ages by a professional organization can be legal, despite some athletes being very qualified and willing to work. That, however, is another can of worms entirely.

The NCAA has not put its best foot forward in the early entry game, either. For this season, the deadline to pull your name out of the early entry pool has been moved up to early May from its traditional late May deadline. Next year, it will move up three more weeks to the middle of April to coincide with the April recruiting signing period. This deadline's move to only a matter of days after the Final Four means that there will essentially be no period of "testing the waters." The rationale is behind the move is easy to figure out, as coaches want early assurances of who is going to be on their team and who is not. However, it creates an artificially short period for players to evaluate their draft status and may cause more players to leave early who would otherwise test the waters before staying.

Despite the NBA and NCAA's missteps in making rules about early entry and the player evaluation period, several prominent freshmen have decided to return such as Harrison Barnes, Perry Jones, and Jared Sullinger. Their return should make college basketball fans optimistic about the 2011-12 season already. However, the sport would benefit even more if all three would have had the same choice to make after their senior year in high school.