The draft is something of extreme importance in the NBA and NFL. Players taken with the first overall pick are expected to produce and produce immediately (unless they're a quarterback, then maybe they can wait a year before they're expected to produce). Players in collegiate basketball and football can elect to leave college early and become professionals, but they are not allowed to be drafted and stay in school.
In baseball, the rules slightly differ and the expectations are vastly different. If a player is drafted, they are not expected to make an appearance for their major league team for at least a year, very often two or three or more, especially if they are drafted out of high school. In baseball, however, a player can be drafted straight out of high school, then elect to play college baseball instead of entering the minor league system and that is okay. The team who drafted that player simply gets that same pick in the subsequent year's draft.
In the NHL, the rules are even more different and dare I say more logical to some extent. The NHL entry draft accepts North American players aged 18-20-years-old. Non-North American players are eligible for the draft at any age. When drafted, a player's rights are owned by that particular NHL club, but that does not mean the player can't go to college or even continue college. A player can be drafted at 18, go to college for four years, then sign a contract with the team that four years previous had drafted them.
If a player wishes to enter the minor league system of their club, they can. I'm sure there is a fair deal of conversation between the NHL organization and the drafted players regarding their decisions before signing contracts. But this draft presents an element of risk that the other drafts do not have and I like that. In the NHL, if you draft a high school senior who then goes to college and for lack of a better word, sucks, you've made a bad investment. In baseball if you do this, the player elects to go to college, you get another pick next year. There is an element of risk with international players in the NBA (think Ricky Rubio), where a player can be drafted and then not go play for the team that drafted them, but the affiliation with collegiate levels is not there, only with other professional organizations.
Obviously, there is a risk that any athlete in any sport won't pan out after making the jump from amateur to professional, but what is the biggest factor in that risk? It may be the difference in level of play from high school/college to the professionals. It may be the length of time expected between draft day and top level debut. But what I like the most about the NHL draft is that it is the only one at the moment that allows a player to be drafted and go to another amateur organization. NHL clubs allow athletes to be coached and mentored by somebody not in the organization and that is pretty risky in my opinion.
I like the NHL draft. I think every sport should adopt some of its ideas, perhaps expanding the age range where appropriate and adjusting for international players where appropriate, as well. I think in the NFL this would certainly be an interesting factor. Perhaps players would be eligible after age 20, then regardless of whether or not they intend to stay in school, they could be drafted and NFL teams would have to take into account such things as will the player leave school early? Is the school they are at trustworthy to continue them on the right path? I honestly think (at least in the NFL) this would cut down on the ridiculous bonuses players are getting for signing a contract and never having played on the NFL stage before.
With the idea that the NHL has one element of risk other drafts do not, do we see very many "draft busts" in the NHL?
It seems most every NFL fan knows the horror stories of Tony Mandarich, Brian Bosworth, Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell. As most NBA fans know, Greg Oden was taken before Kevin Durant in 2007 and Sam Bowie was taken before Michael Jordan in 1984. (Hakeem Olajuwon was taken first, but calling him a bust would be blasphemy.)
But what about the NHL? There are some pretty solid names on the list, including Eric Lindros (1991), Mike Modano (1988), and Mario Lemieux (1984). Below is a listing of the players taken first overall in the last 10 years with grades, stats, and assessment. The impressive names continue.
2010: Taylor Hall, Edmonton Oilers
Hall has played in all 61 games for the dismal Oilers this season. He currently has 19 goals and 21 assists, putting him on pace for 54 points this season, which is nothing to sneeze at. The next few years will tell us if he's as valuable as some of the players a little further down on this list, but considering he's making immediate impact, I'd say the Oilers did pretty well with this pick.
GRADE: B
2009: John Tavares, New York Islanders
Tavares was also an immediate impact guy. He played every game for the Islanders in 2009-2010, scoring 24 goals with 30 assists. In 2010-2011, he's already recorded 23 goals with 29 assists. His 52 points have him in a tie for 22nd in points. Not bad for year number two.
GRADE: B+
2008: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
Stamkos had a similar first year to the two subsequent overall first picks listed above, but his second season was a major breakout. He scored 51 goals with 44 assists accounting for 95 points, good for fifth best in points and tied for first in goals (with Sidney Crosby). 2010-2011 has been much of the same for Stamkos. He's currently second in points with 77 and first in goals with 41. I dare say, Stamkos seems well on his way to becoming one of the better first picks of all time, not only playing at a high level himself, but advancing the Lightning from mediocre to contenders.
GRADE: A
2007: Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks
Kane has been consistent for the Blackhawks accumulating 72, 70, and 88 points in his first three seasons, in the current season, he's at 51 points. Good numbers, but not overwhelming and of course Kane got the chance to spend a day with Lord Stanley's Cup, which is of course a nice bonus. Kane has one off the ice incident involving misdemeanor charges for punching a taxi driver because he didn't get $1.20 in change. That happened in 2009 and seems to be an isolated incident, so perhaps it shouldn't play too much into my grade.
GRADE: B
2006: Erik Johnson, St. Louis Blues
Johnson is the only player drafted first overall that could even be considered a minor bust at this point, and he still has perhaps 10-plus years ahead of him. He is also the only player to not head straight into the NHL or the NHL's minor league system as he played a year for the Minnesota Golden Gophers before signing with the Blues. He is also the most recent defensemen to be taken first overall. Furthermore, he is only one in the last 10 years to miss an entire season due to injury. Johnson missed the 2008-2009 season with a torn ACL and MCL, an injury he received while driving a golf cart at a team event.
He has recently been traded to the Colorado Avalanche. While Johnson is certainly a serviceable player, his missing a year gives him a rather lower grade than anybody else taken first in the past 10 years. Also consider the three names that followed Johnson in the 2006 draft: Jordan Staal, Jonathan Toews, Nicklas Backstrom. Two out of three of those seem to have turned out a touch better than Johnson at this point in time.
GRADE: C-
2005: Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Crosby has already had a successful career. In his five completed seasons, he notched 100 points four times, failing to do so in 2007-2008 because of a high ankle sprain that kept him out of more than 20 games. He has helped lead the Penguins to one title already and has helped elevate them to an elite level. Although he is missing some time currently, one would be an idiot to not see that he has already been a grade A pick and has the potential to be an elite player for the next decade. He has one Hart Memorial Trophy and has hoisted Lord Stanley's cup once already. Earning those honors two or three more times before he is finished is not unthinkable.
GRADE: A+
2004: Alexander Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
Ovechkin has similar numbers to Crosby, including four out of five seasons with 100 points. The main difference between these two players are Ovechkin scores more goals and is a bit more durable and crazy. Crosby has a championship. Comparing them is much like comparing LeBron James and Kobe Bryant or Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. It mostly comes down to subjective preference as to who is better.
GRADE: A+
2003: Marc-Andre Fleury, Pittsburgh Penguins
Fleury is the most recent goaltender to be taken first overall. At 18, he started 20 games in his rookie season and had a few growing pains, going 4-14-2 while allowing 3.64 goals against average. His second season wasn't much better as he went 13-27-6 allowing 3.25 goals against average. His third season (2006-2007) however put him towards stardom as he went 40-16-9. Subsequent seasons have seen Fleury's goals against decrease, but his wins haven't cracked 40 since. 2006-2007 was the only season in which Fleury was in the top five for wins in the NHL.
While he has certainly been a good goaltender, he hasn't put up great numbers in really any category since 2006-2007. He's consistently top-10 in most categories, and by no means a bust. Overall, as a pick for Pittsburgh at the time, I think Fleury was the right choice. The next goaltender taken in the 2003 draft was Corey Crawford, 52nd overall by the Chicago Blackhawks, who, before this season, had played in a grand total of nine NHL games. Taking Fleury first overall as opposed to waiting seven years for Crawford was probably the right choice.
GRADE: B+
2002: Rick Nash, Columbus Blue Jackets
Nash has not been overwhelming with the numbers like Crosby and Ovechkin, even like Stamkos, but he has been a solid force for Columbus, scoring 40 goals twice. In the end, 2002 just wasn't a great year for the NHL draft. Only five players from the 2002 draft have been selected to the All-Star Game ... ever. Compare that to 2003 with 12 in the first round. Well, maybe 2003 was just a good year.
GRADE B-
2001: Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta Thrashers
Kovalchuk had some good seasons with the Thrashers, putting up 80 points on four different occasions and scoring 50 goals twice, but he may have already reached the pinnacle of his career and is 2010-2011 is showing us a bit of a down slope. We'll see how many years he has left in the tank, and if 2010-2011 is just a fluke possibly brought on by a change of scenery to the New Jersey Devils, who struggled mightily in the first half of the season, though since their turnaround, he's been very solid. He's a good choice, just not a great choice.
GRADE: B+
Compare that list with one minor bust and three superstars to the NFL's last 10 number one overall picks with at least two busts in JaMarcus Russell and David Carr, not to mention Michael Vick, who spent a goodly amount of time in jail and some true all-stars, but no superstars.
Or the NBA, which boasts certain busts Kwame Brown, Greg Oden, and the not-so-impressive Andrew Bogut and the improving Andrea Bargnani. Those seem to be balanced nicely of course by superstar names like LeBron James, Dwight Howard, and Derrick Rose.
Or MLB, where we have the very sad story of Matt Bush (seriously, this kid had some problems), Bryan Bullington, who is now pitching in Japan, and Luke Hochevar, who hasn't shown off too much for the Royals quite yet. The MLB also has some nice stars on its list, including Joe Mauer, Justin Upton, and David Price.
In the end, the NHL, at least in the last 10 years, has been by far the safest draft. It has produced superstars much like the NBA, but it has not given way to the ridiculous busts that have plagued all three other sports.
So what's the secret? I think the draft might have something to do with it.
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