With only about three weeks remaining in the college basketball season, many fans and pundits are starting to look at the potential March Madness brackets. One thing that some people pay attention to is the number of teams that aren't going to make it that were supposed to, and vice-versa. So, in the interest of comparing the preseason projections to who's really in contention, I've compiled a "top five" list of surprises and disappointments.
For reference, I compared the preseason tournament picks from The Sporting News College Basketball annual to the Bracketology predictions found at CBS Sportsline on the web. Here's what I found.
Major Surprises
1. Notre Dame — A team projected to finish in the bottom half of the Big East is now poised to earn a No. 2 seed in the tournament. But the road will be tough for the Fighting Irish to a top spot in the Big Dance with games against Villanova, whom they've not played yet, and at Connecticut, a team they beat by only three at home earlier. Regardless, Notre Dame should be "dancing" come March, especially if they finish high in the conference tournament.
2. Vanderbilt — Also a team projected to finish near the bottom of the SEC is now in place for a potential No. 5 seed. But with conference powers Tennessee, Kentucky, and Florida left on the schedule, the Commodores' stock could drop a little, although not enough to knock them out of the tournament. And a good showing in the SEC tournament wouldn't hurt.
3. St. John's — Steve Lavin's return to the bench has been a successful one, to say the least. The Red Storm were predicted to finish behind Notre Dame in the Big East, but are now projected as a No. 6 seed in the Tournament. With only Villanova as the remaining challenge on the schedule, St. John's could take some momentum into the Big East Tournament and earn an even higher seed.
4. St. Mary's — Projected to finish just behind Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, but be passed over for tournament consideration, the Gaels are now looking at a possible No. 7 seed. St. Mary's can sew up the conference title with a win over the Zags this week and then look to have a head of steam going into the conference tournament. If they win both the regular season and tourney titles, they could oust Gonzaga from March Madness.
5. UNLV — Predicted to finish fourth in the Mountain West, the Runnin' Rebels have gone from Tournament hopefuls to a potential seventh seed. All that's left for the Rebs on the schedule are bubble team New Mexico, Wyoming, and Utah. Then it's on to the MWC tournament where they'll try to wreak some havoc against two other surprising teams from the conference.
Mild Surprises
1. San Diego State — Projected to win the MWC but only be a No. 7 tournament seed at the beginning of the year, now a potential No. 1 seed. However, they'll have a tough road to No. 1 the rest of the way with BYU, Wyoming (not so tough), and Colorado State to end the regular season. If they can win out they'll probably earn a top seed somewhere, even if they don't win the Mountain West tournament.
2. Texas — Also projected to be a No. 7 seed preseason and in position to be a No. 1. They also have a seemingly difficult schedule with Colorado, Kansas State, and Baylor left, but two of those teams have been big disappointments this year. Barring a major disaster, the Longhorns will be a top seed somewhere, and maybe even No. 1 overall.
3. BYU — Predicted to finish just behind San Diego State in the MWC and earn a No. 8 seed into the tournament, the Cougars have played well enough to be a possible No. 2 in March. But they're schedule the rest of the way is also tough, with the aforementioned matchup with the Aztecs, plus games against Colorado State and New Mexico. The conference tournament should be the tell-all of just how high BYU can go in the March Madness seeding.
4. UConn — Projected to finish eighth in the Big East and be just a No. 12 seed into the tournament, the Huskies are looking at a possible No. 3 seed. While they sit in the middle of the pack in the conference standings, an upset win over Notre Dame and a good finish in the conference tournament could solidify UConn as a legitimate No. 3.
5. Old Dominion — Predicted to finish second in the Colonial, but miss the tournament, the Monarchs are now a possible No. 8 seed and potentially one of three teams to earn a tournament berth. It will be the conference tournament that will decide where they ultimately end up in the March bracket.
The best of the rest — George Mason, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Louisville
Mild Disappointments
1. Michigan State — Thought by many to be title contenders this year, the Spartans are projected to earn only an 11 seed into the tournament. Of course, anything can happen in March. Purdue is the only test left on the schedule, but the conference tournament will be a test in the stacked Big Ten.
2. Kansas State — Came out like gangbusters in the beginning of the year, but early losses to Duke and Florida, and narrow victories over Washington State and Loyola (Ill.) marked the decline of the Wildcats heading into Big 12 play. Originally projected as a No. 2 seed into the tournament, now they're looking at a potential No. 11, unless they can run the table at the conference tournament.
3. Memphis — Expected to easily win the Conference USA title and earn a No. 3 seed into the tournament, the Tigers are tied for fourth in the conference and are projected to be an 11 seed in March. A game at league-leading UTEP is the only significant game on the schedule heading into the conference tournament.
4. Oklahoma State — Another Big 12 team with tournament expectations, the Cowboys were projected to be a No. 11 seed in March after being there last year. But they are near the bottom of the conference standings and don't have the non-conference resume' to land an at-large bid. But they could help themselves with a strong showing in the Big 12 tournament.
5. Mississippi State — Predicted to win the SEC West division title and earn a No. 9 seed into the tournament, the Bulldogs are four games behind Alabama in the division standings and barely over .500 in their overall record. While Tennessee is the only really good team left on the schedule, MSU will probably have to reach the conference tournament title game to get a spot in the Big Dance.
Major Disappointments
1. Gonzaga — The Bulldogs were "probable" WCC title contenders this year with a projected No. 4 seed going into March Madness, but with St. Mary's in the conference lead, the Zags' only hope for a 13-straight tournament appearance will be a conference tournament title.
2. Butler — After last year's championship game appearance, many thought the Bulldogs would reload this year and enter March as high as a No. 4 seed. But they, too, will need to win their conference tournament as the Horizon may not be strong enough to land an at-large berth, although Cleveland State and Valparaiso are as tough as anyone in the country — which is why Butler has struggled to run away with the league.
3. Illinois — Projected to finish fourth in the Big Ten and earn a No. 5 seed into the tournament, the Illini are right where they were expected to be in the standings, but could miss the Big Dance altogether. Games left include one at league-leading Ohio State and another at second-place Purdue. It will take a high finish in the conference tournament to get the Illini a March bid.
4. Wichita State — The Shockers were projected to win the Missouri Valley Conference title and, therefore, get the automatic bid into the Big Dance, as high as a No. 7 seed. But they're currently behind Missouri State in the standings and will need to win the conference title to get the bid in March.
5. North Carolina State — Expected to be a No. 8 seed into the tournament and the fourth-place finisher in the ACC, the Wolfpack are clearly out of the running with a 4-8 conference record and just 14-12 overall. Like with many other teams, it will take a conference tournament title to get them into the Big Dance.
The worst (?) of the rest — Dayton, Clemson, Maryland, Northwestern
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