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January 31, 2011

Leaning a Certain Way

The beginning of February usually signifies that we've got around a month until the stretch run for the NBA. It also means that we've had enough time to settle into a groove when it comes to following this chapter of the league's ongoing archives. One thing this game continues to show me is that there are multiple sides to any story. When discussing the MVP race, title contenders, or the trade deadline, the focal points and connections could create an octagon.

But what about a straight line? Two points, connected to a singular crux, tilted to show favor to one side or the other. Well, it just so happens that those stories exist, too. And I've brought them together today on: scale tippers. We stack the evidence of two sides on a balanced fulcrum and figure out "who tips the scale?" Commissioner Stern, who are our first contestants?

Scales of Woe: Road to Nowhere vs. The Chosen None

Going into February 2010, we all wondered if the New Jersey Nets might own the most dubious honor in the professional game. With a record of 4-42, there was the possibility that they could win less games than the 1972-1973 Philadelphia 76ers (finished at 9-73). This season, that mark looks to be safe. Matter of fact, as of Sunday, there's only one team that even has the possibility of breaking it. That would be the Cleveland Cavaliers.

What a difference a summer makes. A year ago, we saw someone from this same team push the Cavs to a League-best 61 wins, while earning his second straight MVP award. Eight months later, we kind of see why that award was deserved. Without LeBron James, the Cavs are pretty horrid. This is showcased through the squad's current 20-game losing streak (and 29 losses in their last 30 contests). While it's good to be the King, it's fairly sad to need him.

At least Cleveland has won away from Cleveland. The same can't be said about the current version of the Wizards. I was in DC the night of the draft lottery. My buddy Craig and I tuned in to find out who inevitably won the John Wall sweepstakes. To our surprise, Washington got the fortuitous bounce of the ping pong ball. The few calls we heard on talk radio buzzed with a bright anticipation of the years to come with Wall at the helm. Growing pains, however, usually come before success.

The Wizards are more than decent at home. They actually have a winning record (13-10). But outside of the beltway, they can't buy a victory. There have been close calls. They went to overtime in Detroit and double OT Friday night in Oklahoma City. But 0-for-23 is still a lot a missed chances. Looking at the rest of the schedule, there might not be to many left. They missed their chances at Minnesota, at Sacramento, and at Memphis. Just goes to show, even with bad teams, winning on the road is hard livin'.

Verdict — The city of Cleveland has more woe to this point. Aside from piling on with the LeBron saga, the Cavs have done nothing but fall apart after they started the season 7-10. A losing streak this long just can't be good for the psyche.

Reservation to tip the scales the other way — The Wizards could very well go into their February 13th date at Cleveland 0-25 away from home. If they lose to the Cavs (who might be on a 27-game losing streak by then), the balance may have to shift.

Scales of Awe: The Double-Double Machines

I first heard about Kevin Love when I was living in Portland. The third-year pro was a senior in high school, and he was doing the schooling to most post players across the Willamette Valley. I first heard of Blake Griffin pretty much when most others did. As a freshman at Oklahoma, he spilled the kerosene that would lay the foundation for him to torch the Big 12 (and most of the country) as a sophomore. Now he's showing his superhuman capabilities as the face of the Clippers.

It's been a battle of one-upmanship regarding the two forwards since early on in the season. The streak of double digit points and rebounds for both players culminated in the showdown between the two on January 19th. Griffin's Clippers won, but his streak was halted at 27 games. Love's Timberwolves couldn't get the W, but his streak extended itself to 29 games (it's now at 33 and counting). So what sets them apart?

Griffin is the more athletic, exciting player. His highlight dunks are reminding us of the days of Dominique Wilkins or an early Shawn Kemp. He can jump out of the gym and is a bull in the post. That has led him to more points per game (22.6). Love has a better face-up game. Although Blake has higher field goal and three-point percentages, Kevin has done it with more outer-range abundance, especially beyond the arc (Griffin threes: 6-11, Love threes: 65-146). And even though Griffin leaps tall buildings in a single bound, it's Love that actually leads the league in boards (15.6 a game).

Verdict — Maybe I'm biased because of where I live right now, but given the choice of who I'd pick for my team, I'd take Love. The fact that he works so hard for his boards says quite a bit about his technique and will. The first 30-30 effort since 1982 doesn't hurt, either. That being said, the All-Star Game better show both guys playing on the court.

Scales of Revival: Bayou Voodoo vs. Garden Magic

It's no question who the biggest surprise of the Association is for the first half of this season. Amare Stoudemire has awakened Madison Square Garden for the first time in close to a decade. Because of him (and coach Mike D'Antoni), the Knicks might give Manhattan real playoff basketball for the first time since 2004 and real playoff basketball for the first time since 2001 (i.e. not getting in as a seven seed and being swept by the Nets).

There's is still a ways to go until mid-April, and it wouldn't be shocking if these guys struggle down the stretch (and even more than they have over the last month-plus). But have you've noticed the teams behind them in the East? Philly? Charlotte? Milwaukee (we'll get to them later)? The competition isn't that daunting.

At this time last season, New Orleans was struggling through something of a "hangover" campaign. Byron Scott was long-fired. Owner George Shinn was looking for a buyer. Rumors of Chris Paul being sick of the situation in the Big Easy were rampant. Who would've thought that a change in coach (Monty Williams), another term with the man in the middle (Emeka Okafor), and the addition of a "role" champion (Trevor Ariza) could bring back the glory days of three years ago.

Even with the mystery of who might step into the ownership role, the fact that the Hornets have rebounded to a playoff-quality squad has the Delta buzzing again.

Verdict — If both teams had been bad for a similar stretch of years, I'd go with New Orleans. But we've seen how good the core of this team can be. That pulls me over to the Knicks side this time. And with St. John's showing signs of life, could the Garden be rocking twice as much in the near future?

Scales of Disappointment: Grounded Rocket vs. Bucking Success

This is an annual, ongoing cycle that affects all sports across the board. Whether it be through a toxic mix of team chemistry or just plain underachievement, there are always teams that don't live up to the expectations of past seasons. This time around, I'm just going to go with the most obvious of explanations: physical injury.

Houston has known for the last couple of years that their all-star center, Yao Ming, is prone to lower leg injuries (broken feet, torn knees, stress fractures, etc.). Just before Christmas, that fact reared up yet again. The 7'6" Ming suffered a season-ending stress fracture, leaving the Rockets without their franchise player for another grueling campaign.

But they could get by, right? They had banded together to reach 42-40 without Yao all of last season. However, what they did have at their disposal was underrated point guard Aaron Brooks. After Houston struggled to find themselves at the outset of November, they lost Brooks for almost 25 games. Now that the trigger man is working his way back into the fold, we'll find out if the ship has been retrofitted for launch.

To the north, we have the squad I alluded to earlier. Milwaukee was last season's Knicks, making the playoffs and giving Atlanta everything they could handle. But like Houston, the Bucks stumbled out of the gate this time around.

Then came the compounding injury. It wasn't to center Andrew Bogut. They've gotten by without him before (barely). It wasn't to all-star shooter Michael Redd (remember him?). He hasn't even played since last January. Who does that leave? No other than spark plug Brandon Jennings. The second-year point guard brought the new dynamic to the team that made last April's postseason run possible. He's now getting back to action after sitting out 19 games due to a broken foot (his official return was Saturday). Just like Houston, it'll be interesting to find out if Milwaukee can find the winning path again with the floor coach back in the fold.

Verdict — Milwaukee is still in the easier conference, which means they have time to recover. That why I tip the scales in Houston's favor. The Rockets dug themselves into a really deep hole early, and they might not find enough to climb the whole way out. That'll only lead to more disappointment on the shores of the Gulf.

And now, for the bonus round. A triad of terror ... what is the scale?

Scales of Dominance: Right Coast vs. Left Coast vs. Lake Shore

It may only be at the midpoint, but there is some serious separation going on in most of the League. As of Sunday, four of the division leaders were out in front of their respective groupings by at least eight games. Three stand out, though. First, the defending champs.

The Lake Show has had their bumps throughout the late part of 2010. But despite having a three and a four-game losing skid, the Purple and Gold are only four games worse than at this time last season. The difference is that their main division rival, Phoenix, faded without Amare. That's left the more successful L.A. team as the only one above .500 through January.

On the opposite coast, the other historical behemoth is in a "runaway train" situation of their own. The Celtics actually have a little more competition close to home with the Knicks showing some kind of vital signs. But a one-sided nature has been the case for the Atlantic for a while now. Since 2005, only the division champ has finished with a winning record. This season might break that spell if the Knicks can keep it together. Otherwise, the Big Three may have a chance to rest some bones come Valentine's Day.

The biggest spread, though, resides on the shores of Lake Michigan. It took a while for the Bulls to get things rolling. Now that they have, it's turned the Windy City into the center of a Cyclonic beatdown toward their rivals. Just like the Lakers, the Bulls' biggest threat hasn't lived up to snuff. With Milwaukee struggling, this has set up Chicago for a smooth transition from the 82-game grind into the postseason.

Verdict — I'll give the slight edge to the Champs. It's impressive how the Bulls have come of age under Derrick Rose (and without Joakim Noah). The Celtics have the toughest contender to this point. My choice to wrap a shiny bow on their division first, though, would be Kobe and the Gang.

I'd like to thank all of our players. The winners all get a chance to return in the next column for more fame and glory. All other participants will receive a year's supply of Puppy Chow and Miracle Gro. Thanks, everyone, and good night.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 6:21 PM | Comments (0)

NFL Labor Dispute 101

One more game.

And the Super Bowl may very well be the last NFL football we see in quite some time.

Yeah, that's right, the time is upon us. And we're delving head-on into this topic in here, so if you're sensitive and/or would like to pretend the potential NFL lockout will never happen, then by all means stop reading this and go back into your fantasy candy land immediately. But before you go, please give me a bit of whatever it is that you're smoking over there — thank you!

Anyway, no, we're not talking about the supposed "end of the world" in whenever-it's-supposed-to-be-2012. Although maybe if we still don't have pro football by then, it won't really bother us as much as a global catastrophe normally would.

But forget that — I'm talking about the potential 2011 NFL Lockout and, by direct extension, so are you now. You know what the 2011 NFL lockout and all that the future may hold surrounding it, correct? It's the ongoing negotiations and back-and-forth disputes between the players association and the team owners — anything ringing a bell? No?

Wow, the general public really has subconsciously ignored this whole thing in an effort not to think about it.

Regardless of why you have no idea what's going to be occurring in the NFL labor disputes and everything happening around it, we've got you covered, so don't worry. Let's take a leisurely, melancholic stroll through NFL 2011 labor dispute 101, shall we?

This whole mess started about two years ago when the NFL team owners voted unanimously to opt out of the leagues current collective bargaining agreement (CBA) following this current 2010-11 season. Obviously, the players association did not take the news kindly and the pot has been simmering between the two ever since. It's currently boiling hot and in need of taking off the stove — without a pot holder. As such, no one wants to do it. How's that for a proverbial situation, huh?

In layman's terms, the CBA was an agreement with rules set out between the two parties to govern things like team salary caps, player salaries, and pretty much anything else having to do with the financial side of the game.

Essentially, the entire thing is being pushed from the owner's side of the fence by the so-called entrepreneurial, heavily hands-on owners (see: Robert Kraft, Jerry Jones, etc). These owners feel that they put up and risk much of their own capital for projects like new stadiums and the like, all in the interests of improving the franchise as much as possible. They also feel that the deal agreed to by the owners in 2006 wasn't a good one and that the players currently accrue too large a share in the adjusted gross revenue of the teams. In short, the players are getting too big of a pie and the owners are taking too many financial risks while trying to mix-up and bake said pie.

The players, on the other hand, are wary of what the owners are pushing — namely taking a pay cut in the vein of receiving their current 60% revenue portion, but from a smaller revenue pool. Many players have expressed concern about how the owners keep talking of the risks that they're constantly taking when it's the players on the field who're by all accounts taking the most extreme risks. Indeed, with all of the new information and awareness being spread about the leagues concussion and other medical issues, it certainly lends credence to the player's claims and fears.

Currently at the head of the NFL Players Association is DeMaurice Smith, a fiery, passionate former trial lawyer and litigation partner with precisely zero experience in any realm of professional football. However, he does have a vast amount of knowledge in financial and law topics from his previous experience in the court system. Smith has recently made headlines by proclaiming to 20 or so new player representatives that — go ahead and brace yourself for it — "we're at war!"

Yes, he seriously said that.

While his enthusiasm, I'm sure, is appreciated, the context of these words — especially with United States troops still currently stationed overseas in actual war zones in Iraq and Afghanistan (may God Bless them all) — was severely insensitive and ignorant. NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell wasted no time in rightly criticizing the statement, reiterating that they're simply in some heated negotiations at the moment and that this is all a business, ultimately (paraphrased, for the record).

It's a shame that Smith had to say such a thing at the time, especially considering what he said directly following it was both sensible and insightful. Per the always wonderful and newly corporatized Pro Football Talk:

"Nobody gets strong without fighting," Smith said. "Nobody stays strong without fighting. Nobody negotiates their way to strength. Nobody talks their way to a good deal. Nobody sits down and just has miraculous things happen."

While Smith's comparisons to actual war fighting suggest he has no real ties to the military (in addition to professional football), when you break what he's saying down into its most basic forms, it does all but ring true. It's highly unlikely that some miraculous agreement is going to be made within minutes of the two parties sitting down for serious talks. Indeed it may take 25, 50, even 100 of these sit-downs before any substantial ground is covered. It surely doesn't help that Smith and Goodell's relationship has gotten off on entirely the wrong foot. It will remain to be seen if the following negotiations will dissolve into a massive battle between the two men's egos. Let's hope not.

Such turbulent times only proves to make the recent departure of former NFL Player Association head Gene Upshaw from this world even more tragic (may he rest In peace). It's common knowledge that Mr. Upshaw, having been a legendary Hall of Fame guard for the Oakland Raiders for 14 years (1967-1981), was intimately familiar with the game from the player's perspective. He also always managed a respectful and professional relationship with then-NFL Commish Paul Tagliabue, something that's directly reflective and representative of his unique personality. All of the controversy regarding retired player benefits that came to light near the end of his reign aside, we may find ourselves looking back and realizing that we didn't know what we'd had until it was gone.

This isn't to suggest any lack of confidence in Mr. Smith, but merely an observation of the seemingly contrasting personalities and management styles of the current and previous NFLPA heads.

The current CBA expires this coming March 1st, 2011, with the date anticipated to spark the opening salvos of heated negotiations and labor talks. While all signs are pointing towards it being a long and nasty negotiations battle, there is still hope yet — mainly in the form of good, old-fashioned economics.

Should both sides stand firm and entrenched in their respective positions, it will be the owners who are best equipped and can survive both the easiest and longest. An overnight elimination of their respective teams' player salaries and benefits can cut costs up to 50% overall for them and unlike the players, the owners would continue to receive broadcast revenue — even in the event of a lockout. Sure, they'd have to ultimately pay it all back when games start up again, but that's a pretty sweet deal, is it not? Surely the fact that the owners are the only one's benefiting from such funds will be another hot-button topic during negotiations.

On the good news front — and yes, that still exists even in the wake of such horrible, horrible news — the NFL draft is still scheduled to occur in April of this year. Also, if you have a fantasy football commissioner worth his mettle, your league probably already has plans and measures in place should the NFL not return for 2011. If not, you might want to go look for a new fantasy commissioner. All in all, yes, it's sad to think about for sure, but just think about it all as some extra, extra time to research for your league's 2012 draft. You're always complaining you never have enough time to properly research before your league draft, well, here you go — use your time wisely!

While the 2011 NFL draft is set to occur as planned, if a lockout does occur for the entire (or even just vast majority) of the season, then it will be highly likely the 2011 draft class will be rolled over into the 2012 class instead. While teams will plan, scout, and draft players these coming months just like normal, they won't technically be able to officially sign anyone after March 1 of this year until an agreement on a new CBA or other financial system is finalized and signed off on. Pretty irresponsible that this was allowed to happen like this, no?

Regardless of what happens on either side, though, one good thing is certain to come out of the labor negotiations this coming spring (and probably beyond) and that is the creation of a retired NFL player benefits program of some sort. Retired NFL player benefits have been a heatedly-debated topic all the way back since Gene Upshaw as the NFLPA head and it will be good to finally see the owners and players agree on at least one thing wholeheartedly. Let's cross our fingers, just in case.

It's certainly not going to be fun in any way, shape, or form and I doubt anyone outside of the most absolute money-grubbing of team owners will be interested in anything other than hammering out a solid deal as quickly as possible. Although to be fair, there's a significant amount of money-grubbing owners that will attempt to rub their greed off on everyone else. Hopefully Commissioner Goodell keeps them in check ... let's go ahead and cross our fingers on that one, as well, just in case.

Mr. Goodell? Mr. Smith? It's go time.

Let's have a good, clean negotiation, okay? No low blows or any more references to war fighting, alright? And please do try and answer basic labor dispute questions while on the road, okay? Get it, got it — good!

Enjoy the Super Bowl. And here's to the Steelers losing — go Packers!

Posted by Josh Galligan at 3:42 PM | Comments (2)

January 28, 2011

Foul Territory With Jeffrey Boswell

* No Pain? No Feign? — Jay Cutler is vindicated when medical evaluation reveals sprained knee ligaments. Subsequent visit to Chicago-area OB/GYN reveals an extremely healthy vagina.

* Exchange of DNA — Mark Sanchez picked his nose, and wiped it on teammate Mark Brunell on national television during Sunday's AFC championship game. In a season marked by brash and boastful statements towards opponents, it was the best "dig" yet by a Jet. In Sanchez's defense, however, Joe Namath's career-defining moment, when he jogged victoriously off the field after Super Bowl III, involved a finger, as well.

* You No-Good, Lousy CBA! — Antonio Cromartie lashed out at the NFL and the players union with an expletive-laced tirade regarding the collective bargaining agreement. You think Cromartie is worried about a potential work stoppage? Not nearly as much as his baby mommas.

* Trade-a-Bate — Carson Palmer has demanded a trade from Bengals, threatening retirement if he's not accommodated, but owner Mike Brown says there's no chance Palmer will be traded. With his bluff called, it's reported that Palmer is pursuing another option, that of "resigning" to play for the Bengals next year.

* Rip Tied — Richard Hamilton balked at head coach Jon Kuester's indirect approach to reaching out to the Pistons guard after a three-team trade that would have sent Hamilton to the New Jersey Nets fell through. The Pistons have vowed to get Hamilton out of Detroit, shopping the disgruntled star around the league with the catchy slogan "Rip Hamilton: A New One?"

* Fish Kill — Jeff Fisher is out as Tennessee Titans head coach. Fisher and team owner Bud Adams had clashed on a number of issues lately, but that didn't stop Adams from saying farewell with a kind parting gift — a finger.

* Kraut it Out Loud — Germany's Martin Kaymer displaced Tiger Woods as the world's No. 2-ranked golfer. Reportedly, Kaymer deadpanned that he finally knew what it was like to be Tiger, as he was able to look down on someone going down.

* Age Spotter — Fitness guru Jack LaLanne died Sunday at the age of 96. Just to put LaLanne's age in perspective, Raiders owner Al Davis wasn't alive when LaLanne was born, nor was Davis alive when LaLanne died.

* He Nailed the Dismount — Rashard Mendenhall "humped" Ben Roethlisberger after Roethlisberger took a knee at the end of Pittsburgh's 24-19 AFC championship win over the Jets. Indeed, "knee" means "yes." It surely wasn't the first time Roethlisberger had been asked to "assume the position."

* More of the Same — Chad Ochocinco announced plans to change his last name back to "Johnson." However, it's not yet clear whether he'll call himself a Bengal next season.

* Mike Check — Michael Vick signed his first endorsement deal since his release from prison, inking a deal with Unequal Technologies, a football pad manufacturer. It's currently unclear what Vick's role as endorser will entail, but most market analysts agree it won't be an ad campaign featuring the words "bury the competition."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:46 PM | Comments (0)

January 27, 2011

Where is the Accountability, Iowa?

"[I]n the hospital ... turns out its bad news bears wen ur wizz is brown."

That's from a Facebook post from Jim Poggi, a freshman linebacker for Iowa. Why was his wizz brown? Because deteriorating muscle tissue entered his bloodstream and made its way to his kidneys.

Deteriorating muscle tissue is not one of the things your kidneys can handle, or concentrate. It's called Exertional Rhabdomyolysis, and those malfunctioning kidneys can kill you. Or at least turn ur wizz brown.

"Exertional" as in, "you worked out this/these muscles more than they can handle." And Poggi is not alone. Twelve of his teammates are in the hospital with him with the same condition.

The scuttlebutt around the commentariat of the Iowa blogs was that the players were engaging in a squats contest, kind of like the players don't know their own limitations and don't want to be the guy who seems not as formidably tough as his peers.

But, no. Turns out this wasn't a bunch of kids getting together and pushing themselves too hard, but a fully-supervised workout involving five strength and conditioning coaches. Based on what was said in today's press conference in Iowa City, and other players on Facebook, players had to do 100 squats (at 240 pounds, according to freshman linebacker Shane DiBona) as fast as possible, and then pull a tackling sled 100 yards.

According to Hawkeyes Public Relations coordinator Paul Federici, they do this kind of workout plenty, and this is the first time this has happened. "This is an anomaly. We just haven't seen this type of response before."

Can I suggest that the "this kind of workout plenty" part is self-evidently untrue? This isn't one or two guys who were hospitalized, but 13. Something was different from how the regimen was run this time.

So what was that difference? Well, Iowa officials are, at least for now, sticking to the story that this was just a fluke times 13. What do those five strength and conditioning coaches say? Nothing. They weren't present at the press conference Iowa held to address this matter. In fact, no one who was there for the workout was present at the press conference.

Indeed, no football staffers were there at all. It was just Federici, and — get this — Poggi's dad.

Remember when all those Toyotas were being recalled for faulty brakes? How would it be if the only one facing the press in a capacity arranged by Toyota was their PR guy and the parent of one of the drivers affected by the brakes?

So Iowa's reaction to this situation in the early days of this mess is remarkably poor, and, as Doc Saturday put it, "reeks of evasiveness."

Indeed, they aren't even releasing the names of the 13 players hospitalized, except for Poggi, who outed himself (each player is still in the hospital, over 48 hours later. They are in "safe and stable condition"). Poggi's dad defended the program, which, given the fact that he and Federici were the only ones behind the podium at the press conference, looks to be another cynical PR move. "Hey, Mr. Poggi. Since you're not mad at us, will you tell the world that? That's what's important here. Thanks."

Iowa, it seems, is just not ready to avail anyone who was actually present during the workout to the press. I am guessing they will in the coming days, but not until they have thoroughly practiced what to say and what not to say. The lack of pertinent parties speaking reeks of something else, too: damage control. Iowa isn't ready to break the huddle yet on that front. That's why interested parties are having to prowl the kids' Facebook pages for any kind of insight. Here's another one of those, from DiBona.

"I had to squat 240 pounds 100 times and it was timed. I can't walk and I fell down the stairs ... life's great."

Posted by Kevin Beane at 11:08 AM | Comments (1)

January 26, 2011

Super Bowl XLV Proposition Bets

1. Winner: Green Bay/Pittsburgh
2. Versus spread: Green Bay (-2½)/Pittsburgh (+2½)
3. Total points (game): over/under 45½
4. Total points (1st quarter): over/under 12½
5. Total points (2nd quarter): over/under 10½
6. Total points (3rd quarter): over/under 13½
7. Total points (4th quarter): over/under 10½
8. Number of FOX NFL studio pre-game analysts (including Frank Caliendo) picking Green Bay to win: over/under 2 1/2
9. Number of team captains (both teams) at midfield for coin toss: over/under 7½
10. Winner of coin toss: Packers/Steelers
11. Coin toss called: heads/tails
12. Coin toss result: heads/tails
13. Packers to: kick/receive
14. First possession begins at yard line: over/under 25½
15. First play from scrimmage: run/pass
16. Yards gained on first play from scrimmage: over/under 6½
17. First Packer pass: complete/incomplete
18. First penalty called on: offense/defense
19. Length of first accepted penalty: over/under 5½
20. Jersey number of side judge: over/under 89½
21. National anthem: a cappella/accompanied by music
22. Aaron Rodgers passing yards: over/under 271½
23. Rodgers turnovers: over/under 1½
24. Mike Wallace receptions: over/under 2½
25. Rashard Mendenhall rushing attempts: over/under 22½
26. Greg Jennings receptions: over/under 5½
27. Ben Roethlisberger interceptions: over/under 1½
28. Turnovers (both teams-game): over/under 4½
29. James Harrison sacks: over/under ½
30. Clay Matthews sacks: over/under 1½
31. Roethlisberger passing yards: over/under 259½
32. James Starks rushing touchdowns: over/under ½
33. Charles Woodson tackles: over/under 5½
34. Hines Ward touchdowns: over/under ½
35. Rodgers completions: over/under 25½
36. James Farrior tackles: over/under 10½
37. Sean Suisham point-after-touchdown conversions: over/under 2½
38. Tramon Williams tackles + interceptions + sacks – interference penalties: over/under 3½
39. Heath Miller receptions: over/under 2½
40. LaMarr Woodley tackles + sacks + passes defended + tackles for losses – quarterback hits: over/under 5½
41. First team to score: Packers/Steelers
42. Points of first score: over/under 3½
43. Yardage length of first Green Bay touchdown: over/under 8½
44. Yardage length of first Pittsburgh touchdown: over/under 7½
45. Jersey number of first Packer to score a touchdown: over/under 44½
46. Jersey number of first Steeler to score a touchdown: over/under 34½
47. First touchdown: pass/rush
48. Coaches challenges: over/under 1½
49. Punts (both teams): over/under 9½
50. Two-point conversion attempts: over/under ½
51. James Harrison personal foul penalties: over/under½
52. Halftime versus spread: Green Bay (-1½)/Pittsburgh (+ 1½)
53. Total points (halftime): over/under 22½
54. Add total points at halftime; sum is: odd/even
55. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (1st half): over/under 1: 56½
56. Mason Crosby field goals: over/under 2½
57. Green Bay first downs: over/under 24½
58. Pittsburgh first downs: over/under 23½
59. Total yards (both teams): over/under 703½
60. Green Bay red zone efficiency: over/under 58.66%
61. Pittsburgh red zone efficiency: over/under 56.12%
62. Green Bay penalties: over/under 5½
63. Pittsburgh penalties: over/under 5½
64. Tie score at any point in fourth quarter: yes/no
65. Time remaining on clock at 2:00 warning (2nd half): over/under 1:58½
66. Points scored in final two minutes of game: over/under 7½
67. Time outs called in last two minutes of game: over/under 2½
68. Jersey number of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 11½
69. Letters in last name of Super Bowl MVP: over/under 8½
70. "Hair vs. Hair" graphics featuring vital statistics of Troy Polamalu and Clay Matthews: over/under ½
71. Duration of game: over/under 3:18½
72. Attendance: over/under 93,087½

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:13 PM | Comments (2)

Vernon Wells? Really, Angels?

After teams were no longer talking about Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, and Jayson Werth, they began talking about Carl Pavano. That, in a nutshell, is the story of the 2011 MLB offseason: all or nothing.

We can talk about how the Rangers and Yankees lost out on Cliff Lee, we can talk about how the Rays lost loads of talent to free agency. But, if one thing is for certain, it is that no team felt a harder hit than the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

From the beginning of the offseason, the Angels looked to be favorites for Crawford, and had varying degrees of interest in Pedro Feliciano and Rafael Soriano. No surprise, the Red Sox and Yankees beat them out for all three, and the Angels were left to look elsewhere.

Beltre was then at the top of the Angels shopping list. They offered the Gold-Glover about $77 million, only to be outbid by a mere $3 million, offered by the reigning American League champion Texas Rangers.

The Angels signed just five free agents this offseason, tied for the least in all of baseball with the Atlanta Braves.

Nevertheless, people were still optimistic about the Angels' future. Just a few weeks ago, many began talking about the Angels' desire to go after Albert Pujols. Yes, that would be rolling the dice, considering we don't know if he will resign with the Cardinals, but it was the best anyone could come up with for a team that was so brutally passed by this offseason.

It was a bright spot for many fans: maybe, after all, the Angels would redeem fans' respect by bringing aboard one of the best players in history. However, the Angels made one very big mistake.

On Friday, the Angels traded for Blue Jays outfielder Vernon Wells. They sent Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera over to Toronto, most likely just to get their salaries cleared.

If you didn't know by now, Wells has been hammered by baseball critics for some time. Some consider his seven-year, $126 million extension signed with the Blue Jays in 2008 to be the worst contract in baseball history.

They have a case. In the first three years of his contract, Wells has hit just .275. Modest for the common outfielder, but not for someone making over $100 million. Fortunately, for the Blue Jays, they only had to pay about $15 million over those first three seasons.

But, for the Angels, it's a different story. This monster deal is just about to kick in, and it will make Wells the second highest paid player in all of baseball come the 2011 season.

Ultimately, the Angels, assuming they hold onto him, will have to pay Wells about $21 million every year for four years. It is unclear how much of that the Blue Jays will take care of, but many believe it will be somewhere around $30 million.

Regardless, the Angels payroll next year is an estimated $142 million, a $15 million increase over last season. And that's not just for next season. Remember, Wells still has four-years left on that deal.

The Angels will dump loads of salary after next season, but mostly to arbitration eligible players. Unless the Angels want to enter the season with half a team, they are going to need to resign many of them. And, for young players in their primes, many are likely to see salary increases.

The answer to the Angels' problems was not Wells. If the past is any indication, it is unlikely he will even be able to match the production of Napoli and Rivera, let alone bring this team back to the top.

When Beltre and Crawford looked the other way, the Angels should have realized this just wasn't their year. They still have great starting pitching, but it was not a good idea to add a monster contract that will yield decent results at most, especially considering you might want to haul in one of the best players of all-time next offseason. Yes, I'm talking about Pujols.

A few years ago, the Angels were feared and respected. Now they have taken a back seat to the Rangers and Athletics. Instead of trying to hype up their fan base, the Angels should have focused on winning back their seat atop the American League West. Wells was simply not the answer.

Posted by Jess Coleman at 11:51 AM | Comments (4)

January 25, 2011

Crosby Hit Bruises NHL at Worst Time

As the NHL All-Star Game creeps ever closer, one subject seems foremost in the minds of NHL fans, as well as in the minds of writers, radio personalities, cable sports stations, and anyone else who gives professional hockey even a cursory glance.

Whither Sidney Crosby?

Three weeks ago as the Pittsburgh Penguins faced off against the Washington Capitals, and Sid the Kid took a turn with his head down (a pertinent detail in this incident), he collided with Caps center David Steckel, bouncing his head off of Steckel's right shoulder. And Steckel, predictably, has been under heavy fire since then.

"The reaction, I didn't think it was going to be this big of a deal, but it is," said Steckel, who apparently hasn't even heard of Sidney Crosby before this collision. Because if he had, he would know for certain that any sort of hit on the golden hockey idol that is Crosby has real potential to be dissected, over-analyzed on video playback approximately 30 times an hour, and criticized (or defended) ad nauseum while the rest of us pray for a commercial. Even the Geico lizard can mean sweet relief, a momentary respite from the overt hero worship and blatant butt-kissing directed toward Crosby.

There are a couple of issues at the heart of this particular incident. First of all, the attitude towards Steckel concerning the hit has been just a little bit short of venomous. The opinion of most NHL fans seems to be that Steckel was headhunting, out for blood, intent on shattering the skull of arguably the best player in the league. But those who saw the replay (and if you own a TV and don't live in a freaking cave, chances are you have) might beg to differ. Steckel, for his part (of course) is part of the "no way that was intentional" camp.

"Contrary to popular belief, I feel like it was incidental. I didn't see him. I didn't look. That's a tough instance. To look back now and be like, 'Well, I'm going to get suspended for a head hit' when I had no idea."

Indeed, neither he nor Crosby had any idea as to what was about to occur the moment prior to contact. Crosby had his head down and to the right; Steckel was pursuing the puck, skating into the play. It didn't even seem that Steckel was moving to check Crosby; in fact, it happened so fast that neither player could have known what was going to happen. At least, that's how it looked. If Steckel honestly had meant to take Crosby's head off, he certainly made it look accidental.

Also factoring into this incident is the God-awful timing of it, in general. Every NHL administrative type office lackey, all the way up to Commissioner Gary Bettman himself, felt the earth beneath them shake when Crosby got his bell rung. Why, you may ask? Because not only did Crosby suffer a concussion from the hit, he's now said he will not play in the upcoming All-Star Game in Raleigh, NC. His refusal to play, which is being seen as his making a statement directed toward Bettman and Co. regarding the enforcement (or lack thereof) of rule 48 (more on that in a moment), is likely a moot point as he is still suffering from post-concussion symptoms and is therefore physically unable to bear the rigors of the game. But his point is well-made.

Rule 48, concerning "lateral or blind-side hits" where "the (player's) head is targeted and/or is the principle point of contact" is being seen as the predecessor to a general and all-encompassing ban on hits to the head, a ban which would be next to impossible to enforce adequately. If the NHL sees no difference in "intentional" and "incidental," a ban would certainly limit the number of head injuries each season, but would fill the suspension list to overflowing with players who, like Steckel, were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The overall issue at the heart of this matter is simply this: if the injured party were anyone besides Sidney Crosby, we likely would have never heard a second thought on the hit, much less a third or fourth or forty-fourth. Those in positions of power know that Crosby on the ice puts a lot of butts in the seats, and the loss of Crosby for the biggest game outside of Lord Stanley's little soiree is like "Star Wars" without Luke Skywalker.

When you're referred to as the best player since Wayne freakin' Gretzky, people tend to notice you. And when said player decides to use a serious on-ice injury, in addition to the decidedly light handling of the incident (read: disregarded altogether), to boycott the All-Star Game, league officials are forced to address the matter. But while rule 48's time has certainly come, the likelihood that it will be strictly enforced is rather low; determining which hits are intentional and which are incidental is never going to be a perfect science, and until it is, Crosby and other players in similar situations are going to have to look elsewhere for justice. Suspensions and fines aside, those matters have always been settled on the ice. That's justice in the NHL.

Justice like a well-timed blind-side hit to your unsuspecting opponent's skull. Unintentionally, of course.

Posted by Clinton Riddle at 12:20 PM | Comments (0)

Hewitt, Tomic Going in Different Directions

Lleyton Hewitt and Bernard Tomic may both represent Australia, but their careers are heading in different directions. One appears to be stuck and going nowhere, whilst the other is a promising youngster that seems to have a bright future.

In the first round of the Australian Open, Lleyton Hewitt participated in one of the best matches of the first week against David Nalbandian. The problem for Hewitt is that he has been ranked in the 40s and 50s for some time now. As a result, he has to play tough opponents, such as Nalbandian, in the first three rounds, thus he loses early on and his ranking doesn't improve. In fact, in the last three years, he has only made it to the quarterfinals once at a major and, perhaps more alarmingly, once in a Masters 1000 event.

Thanks to early departures Hewitt has been unable to rise in the rankings and give himself, theoretically, and easier draw. It's like he's stuck in a vicious cycle.

Having an easier draw is all well and good, but why isn't a two-time major winner negotiating his way through the early rounds? Well, it's not for want of effort. A lack of determination can never be a charge lay at Hewitt's door and if that's all we can continue to say about him then that's nothing to be ashamed of.

Hewitt is undoubtedly a great counter-puncher, but that's where the problem lies. He's never really been much more than a counter-puncher. His game plan often relies on the opponent making mistakes. In today's game, you have to be able to attack and Hewitt finds it difficult to make the transition from defense to attack. This much was clear in his encounter with Nalbandian. The Argentine was more aggressive and consequently went onto win.

It seems as though Hewitt isn't made for the game as it is played today. The players are better and more aggressive. Hewitt isn't. He turns 30 in a few weeks and it may well be a time when he takes a long hard look at his future. With a wife and three children it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Hewitt will decide to throw in the towel soon. The other issue, besides family commitments, is that it must be frustrating to put in the hard work on the practice court, travel around the world and get absolutely nothing for it. When you're giving it your all and coming up way short time and time again, it can become a chore to actually make it to the practice court.

Tomic, on the other hand, is 12-and-a-half years Hewitt's junior and had his most successful major performance at the Australian Open. Having previously made it to the second round in his first two Australian Open appearances, Tomic went one better by reaching the third round. His prize for making that far was Rafael Nadal.

Nadal ousted the Australian in straight sets, but the story of the match came at the start of the second set. Having lost the first set, 6-2, Tomic continued his tactics of hitting the ball flat and hard, and he was wise to continue with that approach. Tomic raced to a 4-0 lead in the second set and not because of inefficiencies on the other side of the net. Nadal was being out-played as Tomic imposed himself on the Spaniard. Tomic was serving well and returning with a purpose. He was hitting the ball hard and flat, utilizing what can be one of the best backhands around when it is going well.

Alas, Nadal managed to claw his way back into the second set and the rest, as they say, is history, but it's possible that we may have had a glimpse at the future of tennis. Tomic is certainly a competent player with most of the skills required to make an impact in today's game. At 6'4" and his aforementioned strengths, he is similar to Robin Soderling, who is now a regular fixture late on in tournaments. It would be naive to think that Tomic will be winning the big tournaments any time soon. It seems fans and pundits expect too much of people far too soon, but Tomic can put together a decent year. Look out for him during the American hard-court season since he prefers hard courts, a fact that is demonstrated by the fact that all of his titles, be they at senior or junior level, were all won hard courts.

Given his attributes, I expect that Tomic, who is currently ranked world No. 199 (though that will change after the Australian Open), would be disappointed if he didn't break into the top 50 by the end of the year. That's by no means as high as he can go, but that should be, at the very least, his aim. So, when the season draws to a close, it is possible that Hewitt will be overtaken by his much younger compatriot, in what will be seen Down Under as a changing of the guard.

Posted by Luke Broadbent at 11:38 AM | Comments (4)

January 24, 2011

Super Bowl XLV Preview

Five Quick Hits

* Congratulations to this year's Walter Payton Man of the Year award finalists, Nnamdi Asomugha (OAK), Israel Idonije (CHI), and Madieu Williams (MIN). The award primarily recognizes off-field service, players who use their careers to help others.

* Carson Palmer reportedly is threatening to retire if the Bengals fail to trade him. It seems unbelievable that he would walk away from $40 million, but they say money can't buy happiness, and playing for a franchise that so stubbornly refuses to improve can't make a guy happy.

* In the middle of a late comeback attempt, the Bears burned a timeout even though the clock wasn't running. I guess some things never change, do they, Mike Martz?

* Fitness marvel Jack LaLanne died this weekend at age 96. Both LaLanne's commitment to fitness and his interest in helping others achieve it were legendary. He was an inspiring guy, and will be missed.

* When's the last time we had two quarterbacks this mobile in the Super Bowl? Brett Favre and John Elway in 1997? Joe Montana and Elway in '89? Ken Anderson and Montana in '81? Maybe Terry Bradshaw and Roger Staubach in the '70s? It's been a long time.

***

Conference Championship Roundups

Packers 21, Bears 14

Am I supposed to start with Knee-gate? Jay Cutler, who is overrated to begin with — a physically gifted but immature and inconsistent player — played quite poorly on Sunday, actually had a lower passer rating (31.8) than backups Todd Collins (39.6) and Caleb Hanie (65.2). He left the game with what was reported as a knee injury, though it wasn't obvious when the injury might have occurred, and he was later seen standing (rather than sitting) on the sidelines.

I have no basis to speculate about anything related to Cutler's condition, but it's interesting that so many people aren't buying the idea that he was too hurt to play. As I was watching the game, I actually found myself wondering about why Cutler wasn't in the game, and that was before I knew so many players and observers around the league felt the same way. I don't question Jay Cutler's physical toughness, but clearly, he hasn't proven to people yet that he is mentally tough.

Hanie, playing the fourth quarter, generated the spark that neither Cutler nor Collins was able to provide, connecting on a pair of touchdown passes. The TDs were also notable for the inexplicably bad play of Green Bay safety Nick Collins, who is a very good defensive back. On both passes, though, he took unimaginably bad angles and overran the play, allowing the receivers to score.

Balancing the mistakes by Collins was the fine play of the other defensive players, who held Chicago to an abysmal 8% third down conversion rate (1/13). Particularly impressive were defensive linemen Cullen Jenkins and B.J. Raji, the latter of whom returned a Hanie interception for the game-clinching touchdown. The Packers' passing offense attracts so much attention that their defense, the best in the NFC, often seems to fly under the radar, but the Bears were unable to find any consistency on offense, partly through their own ineptitude and partly because of the opponent.

Defensively, the Bears relied on their front four to generate pressure, and didn't get it. Aaron Rodgers had too much time to pass, and too much room to improvise when the time wasn't there. Rodgers repeatedly picked on Tim Jennings, and Packer wideout Greg Jennings (no relation) had a big game (8 catches, 130 yards) from the opening drive. Chicago's defense responded well afterwards, but the better team won.

Steelers 24, Jets 19

I'm a little bitter about something, and I need to get this off my chest before we really get to the game. Last week, I picked the Packers to win by 7, which they did. I picked the Steelers to win by 4, which they would have if the Jets had made a two-point conversion down 24-18. One point from perfection!

Last week against Baltimore, the Steelers were sloppy in the first half, dominant in the second. Against the Jets, they were magnificent in the first half, lackadaisical in the second. Pittsburgh scored 24 points in the first two quarters, none after halftime. Can this team put together a whole game playing at a high level?

At halftime, the Steelers had more points (24) than the Jets had plays (22), with a 12-minute edge in time of possession, more than twice as much (21:04) as New York (8:56). That the Jets even made it close after that is worrisome. When Pittsburgh was successful, it was by controlling the ground both offensively and defensively. Rashard Mendenhall had one of his best games as a pro (121 rush yards, TD), and backup Isaac Redman made a few key plays, as well. Meanwhile, the Jets, for whom passing is more a change of pace than a way of life, were unable to find any consistency rushing the football.

This was a classic Steeler win, based on running and defense, with a playoff-tested quarterback making enough plays. Credit offensive coordinator Bruce Arians for an offensive gameplan that attacked the Jets where they were weakest, and stuck with it, controlling the clock and giving him defense an opportunity to secure the win. Linebackers James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley, and Lawrence Timmons played particularly well for this year's AFC champs. Troy Polamalu, who missed time at the end of the regular season due to injury, hasn't looked like himself in the playoffs.

Jets coach Rex Ryan attracts a lot of criticism, and when his team inevitably runs into some speed bumps, that will turn into a firestorm, but he's done a tremendous job with this team. I admire his candor, and it's easy to tell why his players like him and play hard for him. For the second season in a row, the Jets have made a heck of a run.

The Crystal Ball

Super Bowl XLV: Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Arlington, Texas
February 6, 2011

They say defense wins championships, and these are the two best defensive teams in the NFL. The Steelers allowed the fewest points this season, the Packers the second-fewest. They were both top-5 in fewest yards allowed, as well as sacks, interceptions, and opponents' passer rating. The game is full of defensive stars, from Harrison and Woodley and Polamalu to Clay Matthews III and Charles Woodson and Raji.

And yet, the focus in coming days is likely to fall on quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. Rodgers, arguably the best QB in the league, has fully emerged from the shadow of Brett Favre. It continues to amaze me that Favre, who should have retired a legend in Green Bay, a figure beloved for years to come, managed to make himself so hated in the city that once adored him. Rodgers, throughout the ongoing drama, consistently handled himself with professionalism and restraint. Roethlisberger, suspended at the beginning of the season following a sexual assault accusation, returned a more humble player and led the Steelers to their third Super Bowl in six seasons.

Both have played well this postseason, though each struggled on Sunday, throwing 2 interceptions apiece. Both are mobile quarterbacks who are hard to bring down, throw well on the run, and are willing to tuck the ball and slide head first. Rodgers is the better player, but Big Ben has the postseason pedigree, and I'm sure Steeler fans wouldn't trade him for anyone. In this game, I'm not sure I blame them.

GREEN BAY ON OFFENSE

The Packers are a passing team. With the emergence of rookie RB James Starks, they've run effectively this postseason, but mostly as a change of pace, dictating the flow of the game and keeping the opponents honest. Rodgers and Greg Jennings are the real stars, the true playmakers. That works in Green Bay's favor, because although Pittsburgh's pass defense is very good, it's also the only place the Steelers are vulnerable. Their run defense is almost impenetrable, and it doesn't behoove the Packers to test it with anything other than short-yardage and some token runs against pass coverage or to set up play-action.

This probably sounds crazy, but I'd consider testing Polamalu. He's got two weeks to get healthy, so probably he'll be his usual self, and even at 80% he's a good safety. But he hasn't looked right in a long time, and if Green Bay can take advantage and get the Steelers doubting one of their stars, this game could break open in a way few people expect. What the Packers should worry about most are Dick LeBeau's pass rush packages. The team sinks or swims with Rodgers, and it has to protect him.

Defensively, the Steelers will look to frustrate, confuse, and stifle Rodgers. They'll take their chances against Starks and Brandon Jackson all day. Most likely, they'll try to stay unpredictable, alternating between pass rush pressure and heavy coverage. Harrison and Polamalu could play especially big roles, because they often rush the passer, and both have the speed to bring Rodgers down when he leaves the pocket. Play too much coverage, and he'll run for first downs. Green Bay is difficult to defend because its receiving corps is so deep, but it's especially important to limit Jennings. Expect him to see a lot of Ike Taylor on February 6th.

Pittsburgh needs to be particularly aware of the big play. Green Bay is very capable of putting together clock-killing, defense-wearying drives, but the deep pass is always key to the team's offensive gameplan. And while long drives can fatigue a defensive unit, they also represent opportunities for a ball-hawking defense like this. Packer coach Mike McCarthy never met a field goal he didn't like, so the Steelers would do well to make the end zone as forbidding as possible. They can win if the Packers are patting Mason Crosby's butt instead of dancing around Rodgers or Jennings or Kuhn.

PITTSBURGH ON OFFENSE

The Steelers' offense is more balanced than Green Bay's, but Pittsburgh should make a particular point to keep the ball on the ground. Green Bay has the league's best pass defense, but a below-average run defense. The Steelers sometimes seem to become fascinated with their pass attack, but against the Packers that's probably not a recipe for success. Big Ben will throw, of course, and he'll need to make plays for them to win, but the gameplan should probably look a lot like the first half of the Jets game.

When these teams met in 2009, the Packers sacked Roethlisberger 5 times, but he passed for 503 yards. I can't imagine Green Bay will be as reckless with its blitzes this time around, but you never know, so I'd have some plays designed to attack the middle of the field, and be ready to go to Mike Wallace when he gets single coverage. Tight end Heath Miller had a big game in the last meeting (7 rec, 118 yds), so it will be interesting to see how the Packers cover him this time. Something to keep an eye on is the status of Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey, who missed most of Sunday's game with what the team is calling an ankle sprain. He was on crutches in the second half, and a mishandled center exchange in his absence led to a safety that put the Jets back in the game.

I believe the Packers should worry less about blitzing than coverage. This defense is so strong up front that the pressure will come, and Roethlisberger will take sacks even without pressure, because he's always looking for the big play. You have to frustrate him, and sometimes he'll force the ball into coverage and make mistakes. Wallace requires particular attention, and the team needs a better way of covering Miller. I'd use Charles Woodson to take Hines Ward out of the game, and hope B.J. Raji can take advantage of whoever lines up at center, whether it's a hobbled Pouncey or a healthy Doug Legursky.

The first priority, as dangerous as Roethlisberger and his receivers can be, is Mendenhall. We all saw what he did to the Jets, and the Packers can't afford a repeat performance in Arlington. If the passing game is clicking, the Steelers will probably win, but the Packers have an offense that can keep up in a shootout. What they can't do is let the Steelers control the game on the ground, grinding out drives.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This probably should be considered an edge for Green Bay. Punter Tim Masthay has repeatedly trapped opponents in bad position, limiting return opportunities and keeping kicks out of the end zone. Pittsburgh kicker Shaun Suisham, who joined the team in midseason — his third team in two years — is not the guy you want trying a long field goal (or a short one, for that matter) with the game on the line.

THE FORECAST

This is the first postseason meeting between these two teams. The Packers have won more NFL championships (12) than anyone, while the Steelers have won the most Super Bowls (6). Both teams are also remarkable for their passionate fans.

Oddsmakers see Green Bay as the early favorite, by about 2 points depending on where you look. I do think the Packers are the better team, and certainly they've looked more dominant recently. Both teams have great defenses, Pittsburgh a little better. But while the Steelers have a pretty good offense, the Packers have a downright great offense, and when it's clicking, they look unstoppable.

In order to win, Pittsburgh absolutely must make sure that the Packers' offense doesn't click, or at least not with any consistency. The defense needs to generate turnovers, at least one and probably two, and it has to keep the Packers kicking. Field goals are okay, touchdowns are not. The Packers struggled to convert short-yardage third downs against Chicago, and the Steelers need to replicate that. It would help to keep Rodgers off the field as much as possible in the first place, controlling the clock with Mendenhall and the short passing game.

This may sound strange, but a high-scoring game probably favors Pittsburgh. Both teams rely on their defenses, but while Green Bay expects to score, if the Steelers get anywhere near 30, things are going wrong for the green and gold. Time of possession may be an overrated stat, but the Packers need to be conscious of the clock in this game. I think a long game favors them, so they can't have Rodgers sitting on the sidelines watching the clock drain between runs. They need a couple big plays on offense, with a lot of first downs, and they need to generate some pass rush without blitzing too much. The cornerbacks will bear a particularly large burden in this game.

If the Packers win, it will be with solid defense and a couple of big plays — turnovers, key stops on third and fourth down — as well as another phenomenal game from Rodgers. With all due respect to the defensive stars, Rodgers is the best player on the team, and he needs to show up in a big way for them to overcome the Steelers. I'd like to see him throwing early and often, running when the opening is there. The best quarterbacks can sometimes dictate a game, and this is Rodgers' opportunity to become a legend.

I do believe the Packers are the better team, but I think this game might be too big for them, and I'm betting on Pittsburgh. McCarthy is afraid of losing, while Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin is afraid of not winning. McCarthy, a Marty Schottenheimer disciple, gets very conservative when the Packers are up late, and has absolutely no killer instinct on fourth down. Tomlin goes for the throat, and I mean that in the best possible way. He reminds me of Bill Belichick in that way, and I think it serves this team well.

The Steelers have been here before, and the moment shouldn't be too big for them. Perhaps Green Bay can overcome that with sheer talent, but I believe Pittsburgh's experience, resolve, and aggressiveness will take the day. You're not going to shut down either of these offenses, but people forget how good the defenses are, and I expect a low-scoring game. Pittsburgh captures its seventh Super Bowl, 20-16.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:04 PM | Comments (0)

San Antonio: The League's Best

The Sunday before last, the San Antonio Spurs notched a relatively routine win against the Nuggets. The aftermath of the win was more notable for the ongoing Carmelo Anthony saga than for anything the Spurs did. Yet, all I could notice after the highlights of the game were shown was the post-highlight score box indicating each team's record.

"SPURS (35-6)"

My mind began to race. 35 plus 6 ... 41 ... halfway through the season ... 35 times 2 equals 70...

Wait. What? Can that be right?

Are the Spurs actually on pace for 70 wins?

Even though the Spurs have been setting club marks for best start after X amount of games after each game, and approaching some of the league's best starts ever, it doesn't feel as though the Spurs are being given the treatment that their record deserves.

The conventional NBA wisdom has said that the other shoe is bound to fall on the Spurs' hot start. Arguments have centered around the age and wear on Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, as well as the Spurs' relative lack of injuries. Indeed, Boston's 33-9 record given all of their injuries may be more impressive than San Antonio being at 37-6 (both records as of last Saturday). Yet, it seems bizarre how little attention the Spurs are getting for the record, especially considering that their top three contributors are all three-time NBA champions (and were the three biggest contributors for two of those titles).

One gets the impression that San Antonio is fine with Boston, Miami and the Lakers getting most of the headlines while the Spurs continue to rack up wins.

Before going any further, let's just nip the question of 70 wins in the bud. No, it's probably not going to happen. Every February, thanks to the San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo being in town, the Spurs go on a lengthy road trip. From February 1 to February 17, San Antonio has to play nine consecutive games away from the AT&T Center including contests at Chicago and at the Lakers. However, many in that road swing are against the league's worst including Sacramento, New Jersey, and Washington.

There's also the question of whether the Spurs should even try to win 70, especially if it would entail being less fresh going into the postseason. The last team to have as gaudy a record through this many games as the Spurs do now was the 2006 Pistons, who ultimately flamed out in the Conference Finals, albeit with a much shorter rotation than this year's Spurs.

Nonetheless, the Spurs deserve to be not only mentioned with Boston, L.A., and Miami, they should be considered the favorite to win the title.

For over a decade, the Spurs have carved out a distinct identity of lockdown defense and a slow, but efficient offense. This season, that identity has been reversed, with a new offense. The Spurs are the 13th in the league in possessions per game, or pace, easily the fastest tempo the Spurs have played under Gregg Popovich.

San Antonio has not played that fast since Bob Hill was the coach in 1996. It's not quite a throwback to the club's freewheeling, ABA beginnings, but it's definitely not the slog-ball people have been accustomed to seeing the Spurs play. Furthermore, the last time the Spurs averaged as many points per game as they are this season was in 1995, when the league average was over two points higher than it is for 2011.

The Spurs' offense used to always go through Duncan, and before him David Robinson, and for great reason. Yet, now with Ginobili as the team's top gun, the key cog in the team's offense is the Argentine. This is not to take anything away from Duncan, who is still having a productive year, albeit with career lows in minutes, rebounds and points.

Popovich has been critical at times of the Spurs' defense, most notably after a loss earlier in the month to the Knicks, but the numbers show that San Antonio is definitely not a basketcase in that area. The Spurs rank seventh in defensive efficiency (points allowed per possession), ahead of the Lakers.

Once playoff time comes, the only team as decorated as the Spurs with their current nucleus in place are those Lakers. Phil Jackson's Lakers have traditionally handled Popovich's teams in the playoffs, with the exceptions coming in the lockout-shortened 1999 season and the Lakers' dysfunctional 2003 campaign. However, the current group of Lakers has never had to deal with a Spurs' offense as potent as this year's, which throws an extra dimension into a potential matchup.

As far as the East goes, the assumption seems to be that Boston will be completely healthy by the playoffs, but the frequency of injuries to which both key players and role players have been suffering brings that assumption into question. Miami was rolling before the recent losing streak and injuries, but the Heat have had trouble this season win Boston and Chicago, two teams coached in a similar defensive philosophy and the two clubs that are the biggest challengers in the East (sorry Orlando).

The Spurs this season have completely deviated from their traditional identity, and it has worked out better than almost anyone could have expected. Thanks to a proficient offense and a defense than still does its fair share of the work, the Spurs should be considered the early favorites as the season reaches its midpoint.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 11:20 AM | Comments (0)

January 22, 2011

The Obstacles Preventing a Playoff

While the debate on whether the Bowl Championship Series or a college football playoff is the best for the game of college football is as heated as ever, there's a much simpler explanation to explain it all. It would strongly behoove most proponents of the playoff to first take a look at exactly why a college football playoff is so far removed from reality — mainly so they can ground themselves in reality instead of staying optimistic by quoting statistics such as, "63% of individuals interested in college football prefer a playoff system to the BCS, according to a recent Quinnipiac University study."

As great a statistic as this is and as maddening as it can be to sometimes really step back and think about, it doesn't mean anything. And that's because the powers that be in the powerhouse colleges and conferences exhibit the one obstacle that truly and fully stands in the way of the seemingly no-brainer playoff system: greed.

The college and conference heads like to spout off nonsense about how they "care" about how the player's grades would be affected in a playoff atmosphere are spewing complete and utter nonsense. They don't care. Why would they? Indeed, pretty much everything they say either doesn't add up or simply doesn't make sense when you take a look at the bigger picture — with said bigger picture being that they profit immensely from the current system. As such, everything they say to the contrary is fueled by this simple fact. These people have an agenda and that agenda is to keep the BCS in place to further line their own pockets down the foreseeable road. To think otherwise would be inherently ignorant to the immense greed that exists in our world today. Tis sad and scary, but true.

Think about how many college football bowl games there are. Now, how many wins does it take to become "bowl-eligible" again ... isn't it six? Six out of 12 regular season games? Talk about rewarding mediocrity.

To become "bowl-eligible," a team merely has to win half of its 12 game schedule? HALF! Think about that for a moment, will you?

Since when is it okay anywhere in life to simply accomplish or achieve half of one's goals? Would it be okay if the college football players got just half of their mid-term exams correct? Of course not — they'd probably be kicked off their football team!

And have you seen some of these college bowl games? Not just the actual games themselves, but even some of the names just scream mediocrity. The Chic-Fil-A Bowl? The Meineke Car Care Bowl? The AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl? Seriously? Now, I get that it's all about getting sponsors and whatnot, and that directly links as yet another source or contributing factor to the greed preventing a true competitive playoff from occurring.

Actually, scratch that. Yes, the actual games. Troy vs. Ohio? Florida International vs. Toledo? Middle Tennessee vs. Miami of Ohio? Save for degenerate gamblers and those with direct ties to the team in some way, who in their right mind would: a) get amped up for these types of games and b) make an honest effort to watch the whole game? I'd go on a limb and say even Mel Kiper, Jr. himself didn't watch those three games in their entirety. Although I'm sure he'll say he did.

While I inherently disagree with rewarding six-win teams with much of anything, couldn't the situation be resolved with a four-team playoff and oodles and oodles of middle-of-the-pack team bowl games leading up to it? Isn't that a win-win for everyone, including the ridiculously laughable bowl game sponsor names?

Apparently, the powers that be think that if a college football playoff were to occur, bowl games would cease to exist. And maybe they would. That would essentially mean 85+% of the bowl games would no longer be on the schedule. Just think about how much sponsorship and media revenue would be going up in smoke should this happen. Now bottle this thought and you've got yourself the primary reason as to why the conference and college powerhouse fat cats are blocking the playoff championship motion with all they've got.

As for evidence against the BCS, there's quite a bit, really. Let's see ... Tulane in 1998, Marshall in 1999, Utah twice in 2004 and 2008, Hawaii in 2007, Boise State thrice in 2006, 2008, and 2009, and Texas Christian University twice in 2009 and 2010. All of these teams were all screwed by the BCS system in a big, big way. For something that's proclaimed as the perfect indicator of the nation's top teams, that's quite a lot of unsatisfied customers, is it not? And this isn't even including the years when a one or two loss team could have made a somewhat legitimate claim to fame and prominence (see: Miami of Ohio in 2003 and Louisville in 2004).

What an awesome system!

Ultimately, when it's all said and done, the fact of the matter is that, until there's some kind of plan to ensure the major college football conference heads and the year-in, year-out powerhouse college heads won't stand to lose a ton of money should the switch to a playoff occur, nothing is going to change. Absolutely nothing. This is just how it is, no matter how much BCS apologists argue to the contrary. It's all about the money and it's all about the greed. Ironically, these things exist in a sport that's supposed to be so pure and free from financial dilution. Almost like rayyyy-yeah-yaaaaain on your wedding way, huh?

As for what the kind of plan this would entail ... that's a topic for another day. Although I still stand by my main decision of a four or even eight-game playoff with tons and tons of bowl games leading up to the main event to keep everyone happy and fulfilled. It's a genius idea, if you ask me.

If you have a suitable alternative plan or would simply like to praise the merits and genius behind mine own, please feel free to express it in the comments. That's what they're there for!

Posted by Josh Galligan at 6:56 PM | Comments (0)

January 20, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Conf. Championships

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Green Bay @ Chicago (+3)

In a playoff season replete with rematches, the Packers and Bears meet for the third time this year, this time in the NFC Championship Game with the winner earning a trip to Dallas for Super Bowl XLV. The Packers toppled the No. 1-seeded Falcons, 48-21, while the Bears handled the Seahawks, 35-24, as both NFC North squads avenged regular season defeats. Aaron Rodgers was 31-of-36 for 366 yards and 3 touchdowns and added a rushing score, while Tramond Williams intercepted Matt Ryan twice, returning his second pick 70 yards for a backbreaking score.

"We're like the Brett Favre family," Rodgers said. "Everybody's 'scoring.' I hear Brandi Favre just got her own reality show. It's called Mississippi Burning. And Brett's filing retirement papers as we speak. It seems as though both Favre's are trying to 'kick the habit.'

"I think my playoff performance speaks for itself. When they talk about great quarterbacks, I'd like to be mentioned in the same breath with Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady. When they talk about great quarterbacks still left in the playoffs, I'd like to be mentioned only with Ben Roethlisberger. When they talk about great quarterbacks left in the playoffs who don't wear their bedroom eyes in their bathrooms, I'd like to be mentioned alone.

"As you may have heard, I've been romantically linked to ESPN's Erin Andrews, among other beautiful starlets. And yes, I can confirm that she likes it through the peephole. But girlfriends are a lot like so-called 'good' defenses — I can go through them easily."

The Bears beat the Packers 20-17 in Week 3, and lost in Green Bay in week 17, 10-3, playing their starters despite having already clinched a first-round bye. Many speculated the Bears wanted the Packers out of the playoffs to avoid a third meeting with what many consider the league's most dangerous playoff team.

"We want no part of the Packers," said Brian Urlacher. "We want all of them. I hear Ryan Grant has Tweeted that Packers fans should book their flights for February. Here are Grant's statistics for the year: 8 rushes, 45 yards, one Twitter account, and no respect. Give a cripple a computer and there's no telling what you might hear. Amazingly, we're the underdogs in the title game, despite home-field advantage, an NFC North crown, and a field that even Jesus would have trouble walking on. Does it bother me that people think our greatest advantage over the Packers is the turf? About as much as it does to say to the Packers, 'Your ass is grass.'

"The 1985 Bears' defense made the '46 D' famous. The 2010 Packers' offense made Atlanta's '48 D' infamous. This year's Bears' defense aims to make the Packers' offense merely ordinary. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli has a plan, and it's up to this defense to implement it. Can we slow the Packers dynamic offensive attack? Sure, by having our quarterback not throw to Tramon Williams."

The Packers experience a bad omen when Donald Driver slips on the ragged Soldier Field turf making the call before the opening coin toss. The Bears win the toss and defer, putting their defense on the field first. Julius Peppers sacks Rodgers on third down, and Devin Hester returns the ensuing punt 45 yards to the Green Bay 23. After three plays net zero yards, Robbie Gould kicks a 40-yard field goal, and the Bears take a 3-0 lead. Chicago scores with no help from the offense, a phenomenon known as the "Bear Minimum."

It's back-and-forth after that, with the lead changing hands five times. Finally, Rodgers gives the Packers the lead for good with a 7-yard run for a touchdown late in the fourth. A Charles Woodson interception squashes Chicago's comeback attempt, and the Packers win, 27-20.

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (-3)

The brash-talking Jets backed up their braggadocio with a stunning 28-21 win over the favored Patriots in Foxboro, setting up an AFC championship showdown in Pittsburgh against the No. 2-seeded Steelers. It's New York's second-straight trip to the title game, while Pittsburgh is making its third appearance in the last six years.

"Never underestimate the influence of the New York Jets," said Rex Ryan. "In one fell swoop, we sent the Patriots and the Steelers 'home.' Ironically, after a week of over-the-top trash talk and bolder-than-bold proclamations from our headquarters of 'Fort Brag,' the one phrase that sums up our dismantling of the Patriots is 'Enough said.' Or, better yet, 'snuff said.' Tom Brady was rendered a 'pretty mess.' We told anyone who would listen that the Patriots, particularly their defense, were overrated. They're average, at best. I hate to toot my own horn, although there are videos floating around the internet of just that, but we told you 'so-so.'

"It seems out that we were better than New England, not only in football, but in 'Patriot Gamesmanship.' It turns out the difference between a 45-3 loss to the Patriots and Sunday's 28-21 win was like the difference between night and day, at least for us. For New England, it was like the difference between night and mourning.

"As for the Steelers, we're keeping the talk in check. After whipping the Patriots, we're taking a 'need we say more' attitude. That's going to be hard for us, and that really 'gets my gloat.' Under normal circumstances, when someone tells me to 'put a sock in it,' I'm mildly aroused."

The Steelers overcame a 21-7 halftime deficit before eventually overpowering the Ravens 31-24 to advance. The Steelers defense held the Ravens to 126 total yards in the game and forced 3 turnovers in the second half, tilting momentum forged by a dominant Baltimore first half. Rashard Mendenhall's 2-yard rush touchdown provided the winning margin, and the Pittsburgh defense held.

"After a year out of the playoffs," said Ben Roethlisberger, "order has been restored in the AFC. After a win over the Jets on Sunday, 'gag order' will be restored. It's too bad the Jets aren't talking trash about the Steelers the way they did about the Patriots. We played a 'divisional' playoff game last week. The Jets, however, played a 'derision-al' playoff game. I welcome trash talk. Heck, I like it when people talk dirty to me, except in legal briefs. If someone called me an 'a-hole,' it wouldn't be news. It would be an echo. Obviously, the Jets have the utmost respect for us. And by 'utmost respect,' I mean 'strategically-veiled resentfulness at our recent playoff successes.'

Apparently, the Jets have good reason not to talk junk. I'm not sure what it is, but they must know what they're not talking about. Is it laryngitis? Could be, but I'm not sure what a St. Louis Rams linebacker has to do with it. Is it the prologue to a Jets rap song called 'The Super Bowl Muffle?' Possibly. In the end, though, it won't be a case of 'put up or shut up;' it will be a case of 'shut up then put up.'"

Roethlisberger throws for 2 touchdowns, and Dick Labeau's defensive scheme, code named 'Pass-Fail,' baffles the Jets, stifling the running game and forcing Mark Sanchez into high-risk passes. Braylon Edwards does a backflip, after getting undercut by Troy Polamalu, and James Harrison KO's Shonn Greene, putting him to sleep.

Pittsburgh wins, 26-16.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:58 PM | Comments (2)

Let's End the Lance Armstrong Witch Hunt

Why is the witch hunt coming after Lance Armstrong? Evidence that Armstrong is a doper is mounting and the accusations are flying after Sports Illustrated broke a story full of growing evidence, but still lacking the smoking gun. Enough is enough. Someone needs to get on the phone with the president of sports to get this story killed yesterday. The Lance Armstrong narrative is too powerful and valuable to be tarnished. It's time for the sports reporters in this world to treat this story like a white-trash bar slut and pull out already for chrissakes.

Did Lance Armstrong use performance-enhancing drugs? No. That's the story and whether it's true or not does not matter. Move along. Go report on something else, like whatever fetish Rex Ryan is into this week or whichever athlete has his genitals in the news this week.

Cancer is a motherfucker. It kills millions every year and it ruins millions of more lives. Sure, sometimes it comes for people that have earned it through years of treating their bodies like garbage, but then it can come just as easily to an innocent kid that hasn't begun to live long enough to earn his cancer. And what it does to people just destroys families.

The Lance Armstrong myth is something cancer victims and their families need. They need to know it's possible to have cancer, be given a minuscule chance for survival, and beat it. They need to know someone has stared death in the eyes, fought back, and became a champion again.

What Lance Armstrong has done is invaluable. You know it every time you see someone wearing a yellow wristband. For a few years, it was a fashion statement, but now the only people wearing them are the people who have directly been affected by the bastardly disease. And it means something to them. A lot.

Sports are fun. They are a diversion. Most importantly, they are entertainment. That's it. When you get down to it, they aren't that important. Not more important than something like cancer.

Armstrong's Live Strong Foundation has done an amazing job in the past decade in helping cancer victims and in providing money, and lots of it, for cancer research. Because his influence has been so vast and completely transcends sports, he is arguably the most important athlete in his generation.

And we're going to compromise this? For what? To preserve the "integrity" of bicycle races? It's not even a sport, it's a mode of transportation. And everyone involved in the sport uses PEDs. Everyone. No exception. They all cheat. Most importantly, no one cares about the sport.

Reporters are treating this story with the same self-righteous vigor and timeliness they had with the baseball steroid scandal. It's nowhere close to the same thing. Baseball is America's pastime and is a sport that relies heavily on it's past and on records and stats.

Conversely, no one gives a shit about bike racing. That's all there is to it. It's like if the two most boring sports, bowling and the WNBA, got together and tried to have a kid. But then they realized they couldn't produce offspring because God didn't care enough to give them reproductive organs, so they were forced to scour the world for a super irrelevant sport to carry on it's legacy and ultimately adopted bicycle races.

I conducted an extremely unscientific poll via instant messenger and 95 percent of people polled could only name on professional bike rider: Lance Armstrong. The other 5 percent could only name Lance and Floyd Landis, who they only knew as the "cowardly jackal who tried to burn Lance." One respondent called him Lloyd Flandis, which really might be his name. I have no idea because he's too irrelevant to even fact-check his name on google.

Competitive bike riding is both boring and inconsequential. The fact that it gave us something as motivating as Lance Armstrong's narrative is a miracle. Lance Armstrong's story and his foundation are far more important than just about anything else in sports and shouldn't be subject to pointless "investigation."

And every journalist working on this story should just move on to something more noble, like eating a picture of Brett Favre's dick.

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 12:56 PM | Comments (6)

January 19, 2011

Pac-10: Oh, How the Mighty Have Fallen

The once-mighty Pac-10 is in a sad state of disrepair these days, and there's not much hope on the horizon as the conference expands to 12 teams next season. Why? That's a question that's tough to answer, but there are a couple possible reasons.

As we look at where the Pac-10 has been over the past couple decades, it's clear that it goes through times of prosperity and times of drought. From the 2006-2007 through 2008-2009 seasons, the conference saw its greatest collective success with six teams being selected to the NCAA tournament in each of those three years. But then things dropped off drastically last season when only two teams — Washington and California — made it to the Big Dance. Even mighty Arizona fell upon lean times when it missed the tournament for the first time in more than two decades.

This season doesn't look like it will shape up to be much better. Currently, only one team is ranked in the AP top 25 (Washington at No. 20), and Arizona squeaks into the Coaches Poll at No. 25. Other than that, nobody else is really getting much attention nationally.

There were shades of brilliance in the non-conference part of the schedule, though: Washington's win over Texas A&M, Washington State roasting Gonzaga and Baylor, and USC beating Texas. But since the conference schedule began, those who once looked like pleasant surprises have turned out to be mediocre and the top teams are still not on par with the elite of the nation. Three weeks into the games that matter and both Arizona and Washington have lost to lesser teams, Washington State is 3-3 after going 10-2 in non-league, and even lowly Oregon has won a Pac-10 game. If the conference gets more than two teams into March Madness this year, it will be a miracle.

When trying to surmise why the sudden drop off in competitiveness, one can only look at two factors — early entrants to the NBA and below-average recruiting.

First, the conference was fortunate to not lose any underclassmen to pro basketball last year, but three jumped ship in 2009 and two others in 2008. Imagine how different the conference might look this year if Kevin Love and Jrue Holiday had decided to stick out their four years at UCLA. And wouldn't USC probably be better with O.J. Mayo and DeMar DeRozan still on the roster? Both Love and Mayo would be seniors this year, and Holiday and DeRozan would be juniors. Plus, Arizona State would still have James Hardin, who entered the draft as a sophomore in 2009. Those are some pretty good players to lose early.

But what is the conference doing to plug those holes? Not much, it appears. In the past two years, the Pac-10 has signed 15 of the top 100 recruits, according to MaxPreps.com. This year so far, only seven have either signed or committed to playing at a Pac-10 (or 12) school next season. Every other major basketball conference (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, and SEC), except for Conference USA, has more top 100 recruits coming their way next year. That's not a good sign, especially when two of those conferences — the Big East and SEC — are getting three times as many blue chippers to come to their schools as the Pac-10 does.

Digging a little deeper, the conference is also losing top recruits from their own states to schools elsewhere. Of the top 100 high school players this year, 10 of them come from schools within the four Pac-10 states. Four of them are going to schools outside the Pac-10, and two have yet to decide. On the flip side, the conference isn't pulling in top recruits from outside its home states, either. Only three recruits from states other than Washington, Oregon, California, or Arizona are heading west, and one of them is coming from Nevada, so he doesn't really count.

Along with that, it seems to be a trend that's been happening for at least a couple years. Looking at the current rosters of the AP top 25, except for Washington (for obvious reasons), San Diego State, and St. Mary's (both in California), all but eight of the remaining 22 teams have at least one player from a Pac-10 state. In reverse, about a third of the players in the Pac-10 came from states outside the four. In summary, that means that the conference is losing players to schools elsewhere and is struggling to attract top talent from elsewhere in the nation.

So when Colorado and Utah enter the conference next year, will that boost the national image of the Pac-Twelve? It's doubtful that the rest of the country will look at the new line up and say, "Ooh, scary!" Utah, a once perennial tournament team, has fallen on hard times, making the Dance just once in the past five years. And Colorado has been there only twice in the past 20 years. It's not exactly what one would call adding traditional powerhouses to the fold.

But don't think it's all doom and gloom for a conference that is experiencing one of its leanest times in recent history. Will it ever see the same success it had in the three seasons prior to last year? Maybe not, but if the ebb and flow of college basketball and of Pac-10 history is any indication, it will be back sooner than later — maybe even better than ever.

Posted by Adam Russell at 7:24 PM | Comments (0)

Sports Chained to Big Business, Gambling, Corruption

The title of this report may come as no revelation to avid sports fans, business movers and shakers, and the politically connected, but every once in a while, it is worth taking stock of those most prominent in a field ripe for deception, deniability, and its penchant for unaccountability.

While the names Tiger Woods, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Derek Jeter need no introduction, even to non-sports fans, few people would ably recognize the name Ted Forstmann. Forstmann reigns over arguably the most powerful agency in all of sports and Hollywood and represents the individual interests of the likes of Messrs. Woods, Federer, Nadal, and Jeter.

International Management Group, otherwise known as IMG Worldwide, is "a global sports, fashion, and media business, with nearly 3,000 employees operating in 30 countries around the globe," according to its website, IMGWorld.com.

And as its chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Ted Forstmann has been one of the most powerful men on Wall Street, going back to the 1980s and into the 1990s as owner of a private equity firm making key acquisitions and turning him into one of the world's richest and financially powerful men. He paved the way for what we now recognize as leveraged buyouts of major corporations. His acquisitions have included Gulfstream Aerospace, Dr. Pepper, Citadel Broadcasting, Ziff Davis, Inc., General Dynamics, and 24 Hour Fitness, to name a few.

The story hardly ends there. Nor is this peek into big business sports solely about Mr. Forstmann, although he is now a major player. As noted by the SportsBusiness Journal in 2010, he is one of "50 Most Influential People in Sports."

But in order to create billion-dollar professional and amateur sports leagues, it requires many players and partners off the field of play, working in synchronization towards one common goal: the bottom line.

Briefly, Ted Forstmann's segue into entertainment and the sports industry did not have a natural path, with his buyout of IMG in 2004 for a cool $750 million. It was hardly the presence in the sports industry then that IMG now enjoys.

But that which was in common with his background was Forstmann's ability to acquire multi-billion dollar ventures and the merging of industries. And he has done so with both amateur and professional sports in the areas of marketing, licensing, merchandising, media, and broadcasting properties.

Fortsmann's first two major acquisitions following his purchase of IMG and after becoming its CEO in 2006, was the ownership of the Collegiate Licensing Company (CLC) CLC.com in 2007. And all one needs to know about CLC is that it represents the merchandise licensing, media, and marketing rights of some 200 National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) affiliated universities and colleges and their respective sports teams.

Following IMG's purchase of CLC, it also acquired Host Communications in 2007 from Triple Crown Media, and now known as IMG College. It gave IMG not only more of a marketing reach into college teams but a further hold on multi-media contracts of the University of Kentucky, the University of Arizona, the University of Michigan, the University of Kansas, and the University of Texas, among others.

In 2008, CBS contracted with IMG for the marketing rights of its corporate sponsors for its NCAA championship broadcasts.

And with IMG's 2010 acquisition of ISP Sports, it sealed the deal on marketing and media rights for 35 of 65 NCAA schools in the six BCS conferences, plus Notre Dame. In addition, ISP has marketing agreements with Arkansas, Arizona State, Auburn, Baylor, California, Duke, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, South Carolina, Syracuse, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington, and Washington State, among others.

So of what relevance is all of this, you ask? Well, unlike perhaps other commercial enterprises and the ways in which moguls operate, the NCAA is not like most businesses. It is a conglomerate of amateur athletes and educational institutions and its affiliates. And it must incorporate the ethics of sport with big business athletic conferences, which generally serve at their own pleasure.

There are, however, commonalities between the NCAA and the business of secondary education, in that they are largely in the fundraising business, with a lot of winks and nods and "Johnny come lately" oversight. But mix in private enterprise and we have the beginnings of a perfect storm, ripe for unaccountability.

With respect to the representation of broadcast entities, merchandisers, and leagues of professional athletes, including individual players, the image and propriety of these assets must be upheld, as well. But again, IMG is a money-making organization, most anxious to fill its own coffers, leaving such oversight to the schools and the leagues themselves.

And historically, Ted Forstmann and his Forstmann, Little & Co., before his foray into the sports world, has experience in expectations of other entities to keep their eyes on the ball, so to speak. In 2002 and ending in a settlement in 2004, Forstmann was sued by the state of Connecticut's $200 billion pension fund in the amount of $120 million.

Forstmann was charged with negligently investing in two companies on behalf of Connecticut's pension fund. Connecticut described it as a bait and switch of sorts, in that the state believed it was deceived into investing part of the state pension's assets worth approximately $120 million, in XO Communications and McLeod USA, which both went bankrupt as a result of the fallout from the telecom bubble.

While Forstmann was relieved of some of the charges, which included fraud and failure to furnish details of his investments on behalf of the pension fund, the crux of the suit involved whether or not Forstmann violated an agreement prohibiting his investing any more than 40% of the state fund's assets into one single venture.

Forstmann was found by a jury to have breached the contract and found "grossly negligent" in violating his company's fiduciary duty. He was eventually required to pay damages in the amount of $15 million in 2004, in order to avoid an appeal by the state for even more damages by the court, and not originally awarded by the jury.

And following Forstmann's ties to Wall Street, a lot of his personal behavior and conflicts of interest came to light in 2010, after an Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) investigation's findings were revealed and by way of a pending lawsuit. Both revealed disturbing information, at best.

The ATP created its Tennis Integrity Unit in 2008, after it had suspected that sports betting had wormed its way into the women's and men's world tours, in matches going back to 2006. No less than a dozen players have been suspended since 2008, for allegations of betting and/or throwing matches.

It was then learned that Ted Forstmann had bet $40,000 on the 2007 French Open, for Federer to beat Nadal, both IMG clients at the time. And the supposed conduit to the Costa Rican offshore bet was one James Agate.

Forstmann also bet on Vijay Singh to beat Tiger Woods, both IMG clients, in the 2007 Masters.

The public first learned of this information in late 2010, forcing the ATP to release the statement in November 2010, specific to Ted Forstmann that read, "We consider his behavior is inappropriate and that he will be in violation of the rules if he engages in such activity in the future."

And the question remains. Why punish players and not the agents of players? The ATP claimed that in 2007 that its gambling prohibition only extended "to a player and/or his regular traveling support team (player support personnel)." And that does not include agents.

As of 2009, there is now "a uniform anti-corruption code in place," according to the ATP.

James Agate, a decades-long colleague, associate and friend of Ted Fortsmann's has revisited an old claim of his via a Los Angeles court by bringing a lawsuit against Forstmann in October 2010. The suit contends that Forstmann owes Agate millions of dollars in unfulfilled promises for his Agate Printing Co.

Following his acquisition of IMG, Forstmann allegedly was to direct printing related business to Agate. And now, Agate has IRS liens against his business, as well, which he says are the result of unpaid tax liabilities owed the IRS by Forstmann, as the result of his gambling, that Forstmann somehow attached to Agate Printing Co.

At the heart of Agate's lawsuit is fraud and breach of contract which Forstsmann totally dismisses. And after years and years of association with Agate and being in business with him, Forstmann is trying to brush him off as none other than an extortionist and a flat out nut.

Although Forstmann copped to betting on Federer, when he stated in 2010, "It was bad judgment," that hardly exonerates him. He also contends that he has not betted in any capacity since 2007.

But Forstmann also, allegedly, bet more than $600,000 on both NCAA football and basketball programs' games and championships between 2004 and 2007, according to the lawsuit. In addition, according to Agate, he also placed bets on behalf of Forstmann on the New York Mets, the Boston Red Sox, and the New England Patriots. Within a few years' time span, Agate claims Forstmann dropped millions of dollars, wagering on all manner of sports.

And Forstmann has made controversial statements as recently as this past fall, when he told the website "The Daily Beast" that although he was aware that he may have violated NCAA rules by betting, that the NCAA officials, "are like priests, and now they're asking me if I bet on March Madness? Can you imagine that? I bet a few bucks on sports."

Well, to one of Forbes Magazine's 400 of the world's most wealthy individuals, what is a couple of hundred thousand dollars here and there, even if it ends up in the millions? For Forstmann supposedly bet $170,000 alone on the March Madness tournament of 2007. In addition, NCAA men's coaches are represented by IMG. But the NCAA is running defense for Forstmann, maintaining that he was not representing any NCAA coaches at that time. Others see it differently.

The NCAA, as of November, 2010 claims that it "opposes all form of legal and illegal sports wagering on college sports." And that NCAA rules cover those "who are members of the association." That means agents are exempt. However, Mr. Forstmann is not merely an "agent" given IMG's hands in multiple NCAA cookie jars. And such exemplifies the height of not only incompetence but arrogance on the NCAA's part.

At a time when the NCAA and professional sports are both trying to at least give the impression that they will not tolerate gambling, Las Vegas sportsbooks, offshore and Internet sports betting entities, and illicit gaming syndicates perhaps see it a bit differently. So, those who lord over the sports world have their hands full with both realized and potential improprieties.

Since Forstmann needed to quell the noises he has been hearing about his alleged malfeasance, he was prompted to release a memo to all of IMG's 3,000 worldwide employees in December 2010. They may not now "engage in any form of gambling or wagering on the outcome or any other aspect of any collegiate sporting event, or to solicit, induce, or facilitate any other person's gambling or wagering on the outcome or any other aspect of any collegiate sporting event."

With regard to professional sports, IMG now requires employees to be aware of the applicable laws, rules and regulations respective of gambling. Impressed?

And the NCAA's final conclusion on this matter? That Ted Forstmann and IMG remain immune. And where are the National Football League (NFL), Major League Baseball (MLB), and the Professional Golf Association (PGA) that were allegedly known victims of Fortsmann's wagering? Missing in action.

Make no mistake. Corruption is embedded at all levels of this amalgam of sports and big business, in both professional and amateur realms. Ted Forstmann merely took advantage of the opportunity. He is a big fish and a known entity.

But many in the NCAA, its conferences, respective schools, affiliated donors, as well as its coaches and even those who make the rules, have the luxury of hiding behind the bleachers. And much like big institutions on Wall Street, they can go about their own improprieties seemingly untouched.

And unfortunately, Ted Fortsmann's story, though an interesting tale and while still evolving, is hardly the only one.

So such is the bone of contention; that amateur and professional sports are both moving away from the presumption of integrity and towards more and more unaccountability.

Yet there is still hope that the sports industry and its peripheral businesses can clean things up, in order to prevent further contamination of its playing fields. And it begs the question: Does there remain the collective will and the moral obligation to so resolve?

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 10:31 AM | Comments (0)

January 18, 2011

Celtics on Another Post-Christmas Hall Pass

If you've seen the newest Farrelly Brothers trailer, give last year's Boston Celtics the Hall Pass test. Look at the full panorama of that season from left to right. Hot, right? Eastern Conference champions, one game short of winning their 18th title. Now, block off their pre-Christmas schedule with your left hand, the postseason with your right. Still hot? Definitely not.

You heard the numbers all through last year's postseason: 27 wins, 27 losses over their final 54 games, That's two-thirds of the season, from a Christmas Day win in Orlando to the playoffs. As plain a barfly as any you'd ever encounter on the wrong side of last call, the lethargy spread so far as to give Celtics fans little cause for optimism in their team's opening-round series against the Miami Heat. But then, the C's reached into their handbag for some zit cream and mascara, and regained enough hottie swagger that the Larry O'Brien trophy kept buying them drinks. At least, right up until the house lights came on during Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

Same thing the year before: an all-time best 27 wins in their first 29 games, a 19-game winning streak heading out to Los Angeles, and the lead inside of four minutes to play at the Staples Center on Christmas Day 2008. From there, a 13-2 spurt by the Lakers sent the Celtics away empty-handed and into a pedestrian 23-16 spiral that disfigured any further resemblance to the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.

Now again, this year. Boston's 23-4 start had local media romancing a run at the 72-10 gold standard established by the Bulls, something they are prone to do every mid-December. The Celtics took a 14-game winning streak into Orlando, and were about to add to it, holding a 12-point second half lead over a Magic team that were losers of eight of their last 10. It was looking like a green Christmas, but ended in another fade down the stretch, another foregone winning streak. They've now lost five of their last 12 games — one more than they had over the season's first two months — and look the part of just another not-so-ten cow sitting at the bar waiting for the next drink.

Beyond Mount Crumpet, nowhere is Christmas Day dreaded more than in Boston Celtics Nation. The bad blood between Santa and the C's goes back to 1948, when Boston dropped its first Christmas matinee ever, 80-77, to the Philadelphia Warriors. Things got worse in The Big Three era, when Patrick Ewing and the Knicks turned a 25-point deficit into a double-overtime victory in Madison Square Garden in 1985 in what many New Yorkers still regard as their best Christmas memory ever.

Boston played only two other Christmas dates — a 22-point drubbing in Chicago in 1991, and an even more lopsided 36-point defeat in New Jersey in 2002 — until they were added to ABC's must-see television lineup in 2008. That's when their Christmas malaise — the Celtics are 11-16 on December 25 — began turning into a season-long hall pass.

Part of the Celtics' post-Holiday blues may well be complacency, but injuries have also been a part, with Kevin Garnett the common thread. In 2008-09, Garnett went down in February and never regained his full health. Last year, he missed 10 games right after the Holidays, while Paul Pierce missed five games beginning on Christmas. This year, he went down with a calf strain in Detroit on December 29, and his return has been pushed back twice.

But there have been other health issues. Rajon Rondo missed the last seven games of December after spraining an ankle, and with Delonte West out with a broken wrist, Nate Robinson was left to handle point guard duties. In the frontcourt, they've weathered the loss of Kendrick Perkins, who is reportedly three weeks away from his return to the floor, but the KG injury became a critical mass that has taken its toll and exposed Boston's reserves. Jermaine O'Neal has missed 22 games — including the last two — and has been recommended for season-ending knee surgery.

Garnett is scheduled to return tonight when Boston hosts Orlando at TD Garden as part of a full slate of 13 games on Martin Luther King Day. The Christmas Day rematch features a newly-retooled Magic bringing their 10-2 run into Boston with top seed in the Eastern Conference coming steadily into focus. On Christmas morning they trailed Boston by 8 games in the loss column; a win tonight, and that deficit will be halved to 4.

While Boston has been losing troops, Orlando has been changing them out. Eight players swapped cities after two late-December trades, netting the Magic Hedo Turkoglu, Gilbert Arenas, Jason Richardson, and Earl Clark. Turkoglu in particular is a Celtics killer. In his first Orlando stint, he was instrumental in the Magic's 2009 seven-game second-round victory over Boston. His reunion with MVP candidate Dwight Howard will cause problems across the NBA, but maybe nowhere more than to Boston.

The acquisitions cost the Magic four players in return, including Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter, who were viewed as last season's missing pieces in returning Orlando to the NBA Finals. In the end, they wilted during last May's six-game elimination by the Celtics.

Boston has already surrendered the Eastern Conference lead once since Christmas — to Miami a week ago. However, the Heat handed it right back with three straight losses. As long as the aging, battle-weary, and oftentimes unmotivated Celtics continue roaming the NBA's corridors with their post-Holidays hall pass, they'll be looking to hand the top seed off again.

If it's to Orlando, the Magic might not be so willing to relinquish it.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 12:00 PM | Comments (0)

January 17, 2011

NFL 2010 Divisional Playoff Roundup

Five Quick Hits

* You can't take Jimmy Johnson seriously. He sits in the FOX studio ranting about "so-called experts," apparently oblivious to the fact that he is one of them.

* Atlanta nickel back Brian Williams missed Saturday's game, and his replacement, Chris Owens, just got killed. The Falcons lost by a ton, so that wasn't the difference in the game, but avoiding or overcoming injuries is crucial to success at this point in the season.

* St. Louis Rams offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, who this season oversaw the 26th-ranked offense in the league, is the new coach of the Cleveland Browns. It worked for Green Bay. Mike McCarthy ran the 32-ranked offense in San Francisco before taking the helm for the Packers.

* At this point, who should we consider the best postseason QB of this generation, Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger? I lean towards Brady, but I don't think the answer to this question is obvious.

* The answer, very soon, might be "neither." Aaron Rodgers' postseason career is off to the most phenomenal start in history, albeit through only three games. His passer rating is 129.4, which doesn't even count 2 rushing TDs.

***

Divisional round analysis below, conference championship game predictions below that.

Divisional Roundups

Steelers 31, Ravens 24

A tale of two halves. In the first half, Pittsburgh lost two fumbles, committed six penalties, and ran out of challenges before the end of the first quarter. Most bafflingly, following a fumble by Ben Roethlisberger, offensive lineman Ramon Foster jogged up to the ball sitting on the ground, looked at it for a second, and then turned around. Foster wasn't the only player to assume the fumble had been an incomplete pass, but why not take one more step and lean down to pick the ball up? Instead, as soon as Foster turned his back, Baltimore's Cory Redding scooped up the ball and trotted into the end zone hassle-free, making it 14-7 Baltimore.

The Steelers made mistakes in the first two quarters, but in the second half, the Ravens couldn't do anything right. In the third quarter, they had more turnovers (3) than yards (-4). For the second half as a whole, Baltimore had 28 yards of offense and 22 penalty yards against. Up 21-7 at halftime, the Ravens repeatedly made surprising mistakes that cost them chances to win.

Ray Rice, who didn't fumble all season, lost a fumble on the Ravens' opening series of the third quarter, leading to a Pittsburgh TD. Joe Flacco ran out of bounds for an 8-yard loss instead of throwing the ball away. Lardarius Webb's punt return touchdown was nullified by a questionable holding penalty on Marcus Smith. Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh both dropped touchdown passes. You can't give away that many plays against a good team and expect to win.

In addition to the Ravens' unforced errors, the Steeler defense made plenty of big plays. James Harrison had three sacks and batted down two passes. Brett Keisel generated pressure on Flacco and recovered a fumble. And if Troy Polamalu had the game Ryan Clark did, it would have made headlines. Clark finished with a forced fumble, an interception, another pass deflection, and two tackles for a loss. On Baltimore's side, Terrell Suggs made a valiant effort, with 3 sacks and a forced fumble.

Packers 48, Falcons 21

Over the last three seasons, the Falcons went 20-4 at home. The last time they lost a home game by more than 27 points was Week 17 of 2005. The last time they allowed 48 points was Week 7 of 2004. The Packers, who have won 12 NFL championships, had never scored 48 in a postseason game.

The Falcons were totally outmatched in this contest. Green Bay made the same sort of mistakes Baltimore did — a bad fumble, a kickoff returned for a touchdown — and all it did was make the score respectable. Atlanta didn't put a real drive together until the fourth quarter, when the Packers already had the game in hand. The Packers didn't punt all game.

Aaron Rodgers once again played at a phenomenal level. It's time for people to stop trying to sound like they're complimenting Rodgers by saying things like, "He's right behind Peyton Manning and Tom Brady." He's not behind anybody. Saying he is makes your comment an insult, not a compliment. Aaron Rodgers is as good a quarterback as there is in the league right now. He also has very fine receivers and a good offensive line, but don't forget about this defense, which held Michael Turner to 39 yards and Matt Ryan to a 69.0 passer rating — at home. Ryan was also sacked 5 times, a career-high.

Atlanta's defense ranked fifth this season in points allowed, just 18 per game, with a season high of 32. Green Bay topped that by 50% and almost tripled the average. The way the Packers played on Saturday, it's hard to imagine anyone beating them.

Bears 35, Seahawks 24

The Seahawks are who we thought they were. The score looks respectable, but the stats were lopsided in Chicago's favor, reflecting that most of Seattle's production came in garbage time — this game was 21-0 at halftime and 28-3 to open the fourth quarter. The Seahawks couldn't get anything meaningful going offensively, they forgot to cover Greg Olsen, and they couldn't consistently contain Jay Cutler or Matt Forte. My favorite stat from the game: three Bears (Forte, Chester Taylor, and Cutler) each out-rushed the entire Seahawk team, which combined for just 34 yards. Marshawn Lynch, the hero of last week's game, carried 4 times for 2 yards.

Bizarre quotes leading up to the game: Troy Aikman said on Saturday, "Matt Hasselbeck, when he's on, he's as good as anybody." That's obviously not right. On Sunday, Curt Menefee said of the Chicago/Seattle contest, "Brian Urlacher tries to cement his legacy among the best linebackers in Chicago Bears history." Uh, I think he might have done that already, Curt. He could retire today and probably make the Hall of Fame.

Jets 28, Patriots 21

Okay, this is the upset of the playoffs. Say what you will about Saints/Seahawks, New Orleans had some obvious vulnerabilities, major injury issues, and a tough road trip on a short week. The Pats were undefeated at home, blowing everyone away, including a 45-3 beatdown of the Jets just over a month ago.

Both top seeds, the Patriots and the Falcons, lost this weekend. The same thing happened two years ago, to the Titans and Giants, but before that you have to go back more than a decade, to 1997. The NFL moved to a 12-team playoff (six per conference) in 1990, and from '90 to '01, the top seeds went 19-5 (.792) in their first games. Since the Houston Texans joined the league in 2002 and the NFL moved to a four-division format, top seeds are just 10-7 (.588) in that first game.

Sixth seeds — like the Jets and Packers — from 1990-2001 went 7-23 in the postseason (.233). Since realignment, they're 17-15 (.531), with a 10-8 record in the first round. Neither home-field advantage nor a first-round bye is worth as much as it used to be. I don't know why, but it's clearly true.

The Jets did the same thing to Tom Brady that they did to Peyton Manning last week, dropping into coverage and mostly using a 3- or 4-man pass rush. The coverage was airtight, and Brady got visibly frustrated, though he also didn't look himself, holding onto the ball, trying too hard to make a play, and taking a lot of sacks. Of course, it didn't help that Shaun Ellis overwhelmed New England guard Dan Connolly, just destroyed him. Brady was sacked 5 times and intercepted for the first time since October 17. The Jets intercepted Brady more times this season (3) than the rest of the league combined (2).

The Jets edged ahead of New England in the all-time series, 52-51-1.

Championship Game Forecasts

All four divisional games were regular-season rematches, and so are both conference championship games. The Jets edged the Steelers in Week 15, while the Bears and Packers split the season series. All of the remaining teams are second or sixth seeds.

Packers @ Bears

The Bears are no joke. They have a great defense, and an offense that is very effective when it's clicking the way it did against Seattle. The problem is that whereas the Seahawks had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, Green Bay has the best defense in the NFC. Chicago's offense is nowhere near as good as Atlanta's, and you saw what the Packers did to the Falcons. Also, the Packers won't wilt in snow like Seattle did. Simply, Green Bay's defense is better than Chicago's, and its offense is much, much better than Chicago's.

I hesitate to pick Green Bay, though, for three reasons. One is that the Packers are prone to baffling mistakes, and they lost a lot of close games this season. The second concern relates to injuries. The Packers are pretty beat-up, and if their defensive stars aren't ready to go or Rodgers gets another concussion or something, that changes things in a big way. The final issue is the possibility of overconfidence. The Packers are pretty clearly the better team. They've been playing lights-out, and they beat the Bears in Week 17. Chicago is too good for the Packers to mail it in and still win. They can't spend the next week reading their press clippings and buying into their own hype.

The Bears win this game with big plays: turnovers and special teams. I'd say they need at least two turnovers and probably a big return, even if it doesn't get all the way to the end zone. They've got to pressure Rodgers and try to force him into mistakes. Don't worry about James Starks, stop the pass. Offensively, keep it balanced, don't get predictable, and don't be afraid to go for the big play. But the Bears could come in with a perfect gameplan and still lose, just because Green Bay is so good. Packers by 7.

Jets @ Steelers

All season, the Jets have won the games they had to have. They've gone through lulls, looked really bad in a couple of games, but they perform when they have to. In 2008, I picked against the Cardinals in every game, until the Super Bowl, when I just threw my hands up and finally picked them to win. I went 0-4 picking Cardinals games that season. I don't want to repeat with the Jets. I said they would lose to Indianapolis and I picked them to lose against the Patriots. I'm off to a bad start. I am 4-2 in the other games.

But I'm not betting against the Steelers. They're at home, they match up well with the Jets, and they're battle-tested, with their eyes on the prize. The Patriots, as good as they were this year, were a relatively young and inexperienced team, and I think some combination of the pressure and the psych games got to them. If you were going to design a team to beat the Jets, it would be Pittsburgh, maybe with a slightly more consistent rushing game.

With defenses this good, you don't expect a lot of scoring, and turnovers will probably decide the outcome. I think Pittsburgh controls the pace by running the ball, and somewhere along the line Ben Roethlisberger pulls a big play out of nowhere. The Jets won't be able to run on the Steelers, and Mark Sanchez will face the kind of pressure New England wasn't able to generate. The Jets are not to be taken lightly, but I say the Steelers win by 4.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:25 PM | Comments (0)

The Dutchman and Other HOF Thoughts

Well, now. I no longer have to apologize (not that I ever did) for championing Bert Blyleven as a Hall of Famer, which I've done for about the previous decade. He finally made it in his final try with the Baseball Writers Association of America.

Blyleven turns out to have been something like Don Sutton — his greatness kind of snuck up on you, and then you re-evaluated the evidence as it was, objectively enough. He was a career-value Hall of Famer who really did look better and better once you plumbed past the surface and most of the pure counting statistics.

Perhaps the most asinine of the arguments in either direction was comparing Blyleven, the alleged non-impact pitcher, to Jack Morris, who has a very inflated image as a big-game pitcher. That image probably rests singularly on Morris's 1991 World Series performance, and there's no question about it: in that Series, and especially in Game Seven, Morris pitched like a Hall of Famer and the Twins wouldn't have won without him.

But did you know that a Bert Blyleven team went up against a Jack Morris team in a postseason, and that Blyleven's team beat Morris's team? Blyleven himself went against Morris himself in that set, Game Two of the 1987 American League Championship Series ... and Blyleven beat Morris. For once in his life Blyleven got the kind of support Morris was only too accustomed to getting: the Twins battered Morris for 6 runs, not one of which was surrendered by the Detroit bullpen, while Blyleven's 3 earned runs surrendered came by way of an early 2-run bomb (Chet Lemon) and a late-game solo shot (Lou Whitaker).

As a matter of fact, Blyleven lifetime in the postseason was actually deadlier than Morris. Ask yourself this: for the one game that you absolutely must win, no questions asked, who would you rather have taking the mound for you — a pitcher with a lifetime 2.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 5-1 won-lost record, or a pitcher with a lifetime 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 7-4 won-lost record. The former is Bert Blyleven's lifetime postseason pitching record. Now tell me how anyone can call him a low-impact pitcher.

If you absolutely insist on comparing Blyleven to Morris, still, tell me why you think a Blyleven who won more games and posted a half-run lower lifetime ERA, and who walked 68 fewer batters even pitching 1,146 more innings than Morris, not to mention throwing 60 shutouts to Morris's 28, isn't the pitcher Morris was? Well he wasn't the pitcher Morris was — he was better. You want to hold Blyleven's tendencies toward surrendering the long ball against him? Ask yourself why he should be condemned for surrendering 430 lifetime and 0.8 per nine innings, but Morris should get a pass for surrendering 389 and 0.9 per nine while surrendering the same average per 162 games (25).

When I first discovered Blyleven had a bona fide Hall of Fame case, I took a close look at his record including the parks in which he pitched. From that, I concluded that if he could have played just three seasons, maybe four, in neutral home parks, never mind pitcher-friendly home parks, Blyleven would have won 300 games, even pitching as he did for most of his career for bad or at least barely-competitive teams.

His biggest problem is that he doesn't have the kind of counting statistics that make you think he's a Hall of Famer before you begin plumbing deeper. His second-biggest problem may have been that he didn't put up a gaudy, stick-it-in-your-face single season or single stat (counting or otherwise, though he probably should have won the 1973 American League Cy Young Award) other than those 60 shutouts.

But what a stat that is. Think about this: Bert Blyleven is ninth on the all-time shutout list ... but fourth if you exclude deadball era pitchers. Sixty shutouts, pitching mostly in an era in which relief pitching became so much more prominent a presence that Blyleven himself chafed when Pittsburgh manager Chuck Tanner (for whose "Fam-I-Lee" Pirates Blyleven pitched, helping them win the 1979 World Series) made a fetish of lifting his starting pitchers whenever the games were close either way. That's a slightly surreal accomplishment.

If you exclude the deadball era pitchers, Blyleven would trail only Warren Spahn (63) and Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver (61 each). Include them and those four trail Walter Johnson (110), Grover Cleveland Alexander (90), Christy Mathewson (79), Cy Young (76), and Eddie Plank (69). Until this year, Blyleven was the only one of the top ten/four shutout pitchers not to be in the Hall of Fame.

P.S. Not even his worst critics ever accused Bert Blyleven, who could have sued most of his teams for non-support, of pitching strictly to the score.

What of everyone else on this year's ballot?

ROBERTO ALOMAR — He's a no-questions-asked Hall of Famer, it was absolutely right to vote him in this year with the highest vote total, and he should have gone in on his first ballot last year.

I haven't had any reason to change my mind. He's the greatest second baseman ever to play the game who wasn't named Joe Morgan; he was certainly the brainiest. But I've learned never to underestimate the potential for vapour lock among the voting writers, not that Alomar's was the first such disgrace by any measure. (It took Willie Mays two years; it took Robin Roberts a decade.)

And anyone who says the Hirschbeck incident didn't loom large enough (when Alomar's final three sad seasons didn't) is probably full of it, which tells you how much they listened to John Hirschbeck himself.

CARLOS BAERGA — Didn't this guy look for most of the world to see like a Hall of Famer in the making in those first few Cleveland seasons? As a matter of fact, a lot of people remember when he looked like he had the chance to become Alomar's only real competition as the game's best second baseman, this at a time when Jeff Kent hadn't yet come into his own as a run producer.

There were few sights sadder in the 1990s than seeing Baerga proving that looks weren't everything so far as that went. For all his talent, he peaked too soon and had a long, sad slide downward. Nowhere near a Hall of Famer.

JEFF BAGWELL — He, too, should have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer. (By the Bill James measurements for meeting Hall of Fame standards and rating on the Hall of Fame batting monitor, Bagwell's a slightly above average Hall of Famer.)

So why wasn't I surprised that he'd be told, more or less, to wait his turn, too? About the only real knock on Bagwell — other than speculation about a certain issue, regarding which it's time we got through our thick skulls that suspicion isn't evidence — is that his bat made him look like a better all-around first baseman than he really was.

Well, so did Lou Gehrig's. Defensively, Bagwell was about average. So was Gehrig. Maybe a tick either way.

HAROLD BAINES — Take a very, very close look. Then ask yourself how Baines could be considered a Hall of Famer when he pulls up shorter than anyone likes to remember. He was one hell of a hitter for a long enough time, but he never quite crossed the line from good to great more than a very few times.

BRET BOONE — Not even close. Three Hall of Fame-caliber seasons in a 14-year career isn't even Harold Baines.

KEVIN BROWN — Mr. Warmth just might have finished off with a Hall of Fame career if he hadn't been a little too ornery and injured a little too often for his own good. He was a great pitcher for quite a few seasons — he dealt with a few too many injuries during his tenure with the Dodgers — and I'd bet to this day about half the people who read the damn thing and knew Brown well enough still can't figure out how the hell he ended up named in the Mitchell Report. He was ornery before he was a suspect, and he was also posting ERAs under three before he was a suspect.

Unfortunately, this is the memory most people have of Brown other than that groundbreaking Dodger contract: he was murdered when the Yankees handed him the ball to start Game Seven, 2004 American League Championship Series. That's enough to nullify his having been part of two previous pennant winners and a World Series winner, even if his postseason record prior to 2004 doesn't look like it belongs to the same pitcher he once was.

JOHN FRANCO — A great pitcher who wasn't strictly a three-and-done closer, but short enough of a Hall of Famer. Barely.

JUAN GONZALEZ — Thanks to Jose Canseco, Juan Gone's credibility has been compromised to a small extent. Barring any unexpected revelation from sources more credible and less self-serving than Canseco, I think Gonzalez on his own merit pulls up just short and almost borderline as a Hall of Famer.

Some might argue that his stats were inflated otherwise by yummy home parks, but Gonzalez was a dangerous hitter for a long enough time and does have a pair of MVPs for his trouble, even if he may not have deserved one of them. Had he been a better defensive player (he was mediocre at best, alas), his Hall of Fame case might be stronger.

MARQUIS GRISSOM — He was a better player than you probably remember him being. Or was he? I'm having a very difficult time accepting that an early-in-the-order man with a lifetime .318 on-base percentage was a better player than he's remembered to have been, though he was a terrific defensive outfielder and could turn a ball game into a track meet when he did reach base. (One thing that probably hurt him was how weak he was at drawing walks.)

Solid player but not even close to a Hall of Famer. Not even in the same time zone, really.

LENNY HARRIS — Baseball's all-time pinch hit leader got to become a great pinch hitter because he wasn't really good enough to do anything else regularly. And most of his pinch hits were singles that didn't really mean all that much to his teams in the big picture. (Did you know: his lifetime slugging percentage is .349.)

It was a dirty job, and somebody had to do it, but even Manny Mota and Smoky Burgess had better slugging percentages and were good for producing about a hundred runs per 162 games.

BOBBY HIGGINSON — I can think of only one reason why he's on the ballot: it's been five or more years since he retired. And while he was once the best player on some of the worst teams ever to wear Detroit Tigers uniforms, that's about the best you can say for him.

CHARLES JOHNSON — Brilliant defensive catcher. Could do a little bit of everything when right. Did not enough of it to make a Hall of Fame case.

BARRY LARKIN — I'd vote for him even though I don't think he'll get in for another couple of years. He was probably overshadowed badly enough by Cal Ripken and Alex Rodriguez, but Larkin was the best all-around shortstop you barely heard of in his time and place. (He was also the first shortstop to hang up a 30-30 season, incidentally.)

AL LEITER — He probably got overworked out of producing a solid Hall of Fame-caliber performance, but Leiter was a terrific pitcher — good enough to pitch for three World Series winners, in fact — especially when he was healthy.

He once earned Sandy Koufax's friendship and personal tutelage when Koufax told him quietly, at a Mets spring camp, "You should be better," and Leiter replied honestly, without flinching, "I know."

EDGAR MARTINEZ — I know he's just about the greatest designated hitter who ever swung the bat. And that's just about all I know. He was only a serviceable defensive third baseman and couldn't hack it when he was tried at first base, but his bat was just too valuable.

On the Jamesian measures, Martinez as a hitter shakes out as an average Hall of Famer. The DH bias probably keeps him from getting in for a good while, though I could be wrong about that, too.

TINO MARTINEZ — As valuable as he was to quite a few Yankee championship teams, Martinez actually wasn't quite as great as he's sometimes remembered to have been. He was a fine defensive first baseman and a solid enough hitter who had a couple of big enough seasons, but he actually had a modest postseason career: his postseason on-base percentage was 23 points below his regular-season mark, and he batted 38 points lower in the postseason than he did in the regular season.

That isn't necessarily a mark against a player — quite a few Hall of Famers didn't hit in the postseason the way they did in the regular campaign — but Tino Martinez is well enough short of the Hall of Fame's zip code.

DON MATTINGLY — His back ended up keeping him from solidifying the Hall of Fame career he looked to be posting in those first few Yankee seasons, but there were reasons why he earned the nickname Donnie Baseball.

FRED McGRIFF — What's probably killing the Crime Dog most as a Hall of Fame candidate isn't that he fell short enough of five hundred bombs but that he wasn't even close to being as good a hitter in late-inning pressure, or when the games were close, as he was when it wasn't the late innings or the games were within less than four runs. I'm on the fence with McGriff, but I could always be persuaded one way or the other.

MARK McGWIRE — He'll get in sooner or later. There's just too much evidence in favor of the argument that McGwire didn't need actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances to do the things he did at the plate, and that they probably didn't do a damn thing for him other than just what he says, help him recover quicker from injuries. There may be a swell of keeping him from getting in until maybe his final year of eligibility, and McGwire himself has said that coming clean was more important to him than making the Hall of Fame, but I think he gets there in due course.

One huge point in his favour: McGwire didn't spend his years in exile protesting that he was baseball's wronged man.

RAUL MONDESI — Talented, troubled, troublesome. Good hitter, good outfielder, a couple of 30-30 seasons, terrific arm, but didn't keep himself together well enough to get to within an ocean's length of the Hall of Fame. Essentially, Mondesi had Roberto Clemente's tools but nowhere near Roberto Clemente's drive and togetherness.

But he sure did seem more comfortable in the field than at the plate and to know how to get a standing O whenever he hit one of his patented bellybust slides in the outfield...

JACK MORRIS — Genuinely great pitchers do not pitch just to the scoreboard. That's probably the biggest barrier between Morris and Cooperstown, but it's a barrier profound enough when you're not measurably enough better than your teams.

DALE MURPHY — If all you need is character, Murphy would have been a Hall of Famer already. He, too, got robbed of an absolute Hall of Fame career by injuries.

But let's cease with the overstatement, as some Murphy supporters still indulge: Calling him the best player of the 1980s is fatuous when his contemporaries, for damn near the entire decade, included Mike Schmidt, George Brett, and Cal Ripken, Jr. Dale Murphy was a great player, but he wasn't that close to their league.

JOHN OLERUD — Famous for wearing a batting helmet even in the field, following recovery from a brain aneurysm. Solid hitter, solid first baseman, one of the best in the business in his time, and they probably still think the Mets made a big mistake in not trying to re-sign him for 2000.

But while he was one of the most underrated players of his time, and a guy you absolutely wanted on your side in a pennant race (and he has the World Series rings to prove it, with the 1992-93 Blue Jays), he's not even close to a Hall of Famer. Kind of like Murphy and Mattingly, though, Olerud is one of those guys you wish you could make a Hall of Famer.

RAFAEL PALMEIRO — He was more or less the Bert Blyleven of position players, even with counting stats to burn: He snuck up you when you weren't looking, until that one positive steroid test (after he finger-wagged his denial before the House Committee for the Dissemination of Great Messages to Kids, thank you again Mr. Will) — just days after he nailed his 3,00th career base hit (he already had 500+ bombs and 1800+ runs batted in) — blew his reputation to smithereens.

The problem is: Palmeiro really may have turned up positive for stanozolol by way of a tainted vitamin B12 ingestion. The problem further is: Palmeiro tested negative in 2003; he tested negative again almost a month after the positive test that would smash his reputation to bits — a negative test he took a fortnight before the positive was disclosed.

And it gets better: Palmeiro passed a polygraph test that indicated he'd offered no responses "indicative of deception." Even the House Committee for the Dissemination of Great Messages to Kids concluded there was nothing to tie Palmeiro to actual or alleged performance-enhancing substances before Palmeiro appeared before it.

As a matter of fact, the committee's then-chairman, Republican Tom Davis, has since begun beating a soft but profound drum on Palmeiro's behalf. Davis will tell anyone who will listen that the committee didn't doubt he was telling the absolute truth at the infamous hearing, and that Palemeiro just might be getting a bum rap over one mistake — a mistake that actually may not have been of Palmeiro's deliberate making.

That probably won't help him reach the Hall of Fame on his first try this year, or in quite a number of years to come, but it probably will help clear his way in due course. He will probably prove the absolute most quiet superstar to make it to Cooperstown if he gets in. And, unlike a lot of instances of debatable wrongdoing, it actually does seem as though the closer you look at Palmeiro, the less wrong there is to see.

Something else of which to make note: Palmeiro spent the bulk of his career playing for bad or at least teams just short of competitiveness, none of which was his fault. He was particularly lethal in the middle innings of games, and very capable in late inning pressure situations, but just what good is it when nobody else around you steps up often enough or keeps the other guys from stepping higher in those situations often enough?

Until that certain issue decimated his reputation, Palmeiro looked like he was going to be Ernie Banks without the extroverted personality — a bona-fide Hall of Famer who'd been sentenced unconscionably to performing most of his career for teams that didn't necessarily deserve him. He actually did get to two postseasons in a 20-year career (Banks never did), and he performed decently enough when he got there, but those teams — the 1996-97 Orioles, who would not have gotten there without him in the first place — didn't get past the League Championship Series in each instance, and it wasn't even close to his fault that they didn't.

Like Mark McGwire, Palmeiro hasn't spent his life away from the game lamenting that he's baseball's wronged man. Until or unless you ask him. Even then, he says it simply and lets it drop at that.

Do you know or remember: Rafael Palmeiro finished his career with more walks than strikeouts? He struck out 100+ times only once; he walked 100+ times thrice; he finished his career with 5 more walks than strikeouts overall; and only once in his career (1997, when the difference was 42+ strikeouts) did he ever strike out twelve or more times more than he walked. His final lifetime average per 162 games was exactly the same — 77 walks, 77 strikeouts.

DAVE PARKER — Almost, but not quite. Invaluable in the clubhouse once he got his act together, though. It's probably no coincidence that the late-1980s Oakland powerhouses went to three straight World Series and won only one of them — the one on which Parker was on the roster and probably the most effective clubhouse enforcer, up to and including his once-well-chronicled threat to turn yappy Jose Canseco into a den trophy if Canseco so much as breathed above a whisper.

TIM RAINES — I'm just going to repeat what I wrote last year: Don't knock the Rock.

You may wish to murder me for this, but Allen Barra (in Clearing the Bases) was absolutely right: Raines's 15 best seasons shake out as being better than the 15 best of a should-be Hall of Famer who was practically his exact skills match, a switch-hitter with a little power who extorted his way on base and hit early in the lineup.

The player is Pete Rose.

Citing Total Baseball's estimate of the 15 best seasons by Rose and Raines, Barra shook them out thus: it took Rose 204 more games to reach base 34 more times a season than Raines in the career shakeout, and to produce 9.3 more runs a season:

That Rose had to play in 204 more games to do that convinces me that Raines was, perhaps, more skilled than Rose in the art of producing runs. The question is, does Rose's durability automatically make him more valuable? After all, he did accumulate more total runs.

Actually, the question is a great deal more complex than that. First of all, although he played alongside some fine hitters in Gary Carter and Andre Dawson, Raines had nothing like the career-long quality of teammates that was afforded Pete Rose. Rose played nearly all his best years on the Reds with teammates such as Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Tony Perez, and Dave Concepcion, and on the Phillies, he batted in front of Mike Schmidt and Greg Luzinski. Given Raines's greater home run total and far superior speed, I think if he batted in front of the same hitters Rose had, he would have produced not only more runs but significantly more runs per season — and remember that's in 200 fewer games. Second, think of how many fewer outs Raines would have used up to produce those runs, and how many more runs those outs would have produced spread around the lineup.

This isn't even beginning to consider the point that Raines probably hung up an uncounted extra parcel of runs by his more consistent ability to go first to third or second and even first to home on elementary base hits, an ability Rose didn't always have despite his reputation as diving Charlie Hustle.

The Rock's big problem is that he, too, didn't leave a glaring statistical benchmark by which to judge him, not even the 200-hit season. On the other hand ... so what of it? Do you think a decade of 200-hit seasons equals an automatic, no-questions-asked great hitter? Then why would you consider as mediocre hitters one Hall of Famer who had six measly 200-hit seasons; a second Hall of Famer who had three such seasons; a pair of Hall of Famers who had exactly one such season; and another pair who had exactly no such seasons?

Now, tell me you plan to argue that Pete Rose was a greater hitter than Stan Musial (the six), Babe Ruth (the three), Willie Mays (one), Frank Robinson (one, too), Ted Williams (never), or Mickey Mantle (neither did he).

Better, still, tell me why you would think Pete Rose was a better hitter than a guy who was his near-equal skill-set player but, over their 15 best seasons each, reached base more often, used less outs to get there (ponder, too, that Raines was so good at wringing out walks he wouldn't have put up three thousand hits even without losing so much time to cocaine addiction — to which he copped and sought treatment on his own — and lupus), hit with a little more power, produced quite a few more runs, and had hugely superior speed?

"Simply put," Barra concluded, "all the indications are that under the same conditions and in the same situations, Tim Raines would have produced at least as many and probably more runs than Pete Rose. That's not going to make him as hot an item on the autograph circuit as Pete Rose, but it ought to be good enough to get Tim Raines a plaque at Cooperstown."

Indeed. But you don't have to make him a might-have-been case. What was should be enough.

And, just for the record, I bet you didn't realize that Tim Raines also reached base more and scored more runs than Tony Gwynn, with only 62 lifetime games' difference between the two.

KIRK RUETER — Woody (memory check: his resemblance to the Toy Story character earned him the nickname) was a nice guy and a fine pitcher. He won more than he lost but he wasn't a Hall of Famer on the best day of his life. See Bobby Higginson, sort of.

BENITO SANTIAGO — Had a shotgun for a throwing arm behind the plate at his best. Managed to get 20 years out of his often-compromised body. Solid but not Cooperstown solid, with or without the Mitchell Report.

LEE SMITH — I'm still on the fence with Smith. I don't really know whether he is Hall of Fame material, but I don't really know that he isn't, either. He was as good as it got in his prime and often better, but why did it seem as though one or two of his teams couldn't wait to get rid of him for reasons having nothing to do with his salaries or his abilities?

If I'm missing something that would secure Smith as a no-questions-asked Hall of Famer, I'm willing to be persuaded all the way into the camp.

On the other hand, here's a stat that might be causing him a little trouble: lifetime, he has a .299 batting average against him on balls in play. This may or may not be as much an effect of his defenders, but that ain't The Mariano (.263). It also isn't Bruce Sutter (.262), the just-retired Trevor Hoffman (.266), or Goose Gossage (.277).

B.J. SURHOFF — Had a nice career. Retired five years and on the ballot. That's all, folks.

ALAN TRAMMELL — I'm still where I was last year: unconvinced that he's a Hall of Famer, unconvinced that he isn't. But if he isn't the greatest shortstop in baseball history, or even the greatest shortstop of his time, he's no questions asked the greatest shortstop in the history of the Tigers.

P.S.: I DON'T KNOW JUST WHAT THIS MEANS, BUT I'll SAY IT — Eight of the players on this year's ballot put in time (or served sentence with, depending on your point of view) with the Orioles: Roberto Alomar, Harold Baines, Kevin Brown, Charles Johnson, Rafael Palmeiro, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, and B.J. Surhoff.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 11:59 AM | Comments (1)

January 14, 2011

Foul Territory With Jeffrey Boswell

* Antonio Cromartie called Tom Brady an "a-hole." If Brady calls Cromartie a "mo%#er fu#@er," would that even be considered an insult to a father of nine children with eight different mothers?

* Auburn wins the BCS championship on Monday night, giving the Southeastern Conference its fifth-straight BCS title. It seems the SEC's cup runneth over, as do the collection plates at SEC-area churches.

* Florida State shocked No. 1-ranked and previously undefeated Duke on Wednesday night, 66-61 in Tallahassee. It's the biggest win for North Carolina fans in two years.

* This year's Judgment Day has been scheduled (tentatively, as always) for May 21, 2011. Not to be overshadowed, Brett Favre has scheduled a press conference for May 20, 2011 to announce his retirement and likely condemnation to Hell the following day.

* The Washington Redskins Daniel Snyder admits his mistakes as an owner, and celebrates by paying $100 million for the rights to the adage "those who refuse to learn from the past are doomed to repeat it."

* Mexican television reporter Ines Sainz has picked the New York Jets to win the Super Bowl. Can you imagine what would have went down had Sainz said the words "all the way" and "Jets" back in the summer when she was visiting New York's training camp? I'm guessing it would have put the "train" in "training camp."

* LeBron James directed a tweet at Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert after Cleveland lost to the Lakers by 55 points on Tuesday. Yes, karma is a bitch, and so is a sprained ankle for James the following night.

* Brett Favre's sister Brandi was arrested in a meth raid in Diamondhead, Mississippi. It's reported that avid hunter Brett was expecting something entirely different when Brandi invited him to "come see my lab."

* Are the Denver Nuggets going to deal Carmelo Anthony or not? Although it's unclear what the Nuggets want in return for him, it's obvious they want to get "rid" for, if not of, Anthony.

* NASCAR has mandated that drivers must choose only one of three series in which to compete for a championship. Reportedly, five-time champion Jimmie Johnson has been the only taker so far in the Sprint Cup series.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 3:28 PM | Comments (0)

January 13, 2011

NFL Weekly Predictions: Divisional

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3½)

It's round three of the 2010 season's Baltimore/Pittsburgh saga, with a trip to the AFC championship on the line. The two teams split in the regular season, with the Ravens taking a 17-14 win in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers evening the score 13-10 in Baltimore. The Ravens won impressively last week in Kansas City 30-7, forcing 5 turnovers while thoroughly dominating the Chiefs.

"That's a hard-hitting performance the Ravens can be proud of," said Ray Lewis. "We earned a 'feather in our cap,' and after some big 'bird' hits on the Chiefs left their mark, some Chiefs got a 'feather on their cap.' The domination was so thorough that we've already claimed ownership of Arrowhead Stadium, and given it back. And I hear they've just legalized gambling in Kansas City.

I can only describe our defensive effort as 'ruthless.' The Steelers know exactly what that's all about, particularly Ben Roethlisberger. 'Ruth-less' is also what he gets when he asks a chick named 'Ruth' on a date. But enough with the nonsense. Saturday's game will be a battle of epic proportions, pitting the 'irresistible force' against the 'immovable object.' Often in Pittsburgh, that 'irresistible force' is the unwanted advances of Big Ben, and the 'immovable object' is a bathroom door.

But we know our defense is a constant. It's not going anywhere. And before last week's game, I could have said the same about our offense. However, Joe Flacco looked comfortable in the pocket, which is understandable since Troy Polamalu doesn't play for the Chiefs. And it helps Joe to have the 'Human Check Down,' Ray Rice, to bail him out when needed.

The Steelers enjoyed a bye week as the AFC's No. 2 seed, and will be at full strength when the Ravens invade. An extra week of rest was most beneficial to Roethlisberger and Troy Polamalu, the anchors of the Steeler offense and defense, respectively.

"We've got playmakers on both sides of the ball," Mike Tomlin said. "Troy is imperative to our defense, as a tackler, blitzer, and field general. But mostly, his ability to force turnovers makes him important to the offense, as well. By that same token, Ben is important, obviously to the offense, but to our defense as well, with his ability to scramble and keep plays alive, thus extending drives and keeping our defense off the field. I wouldn't go so far as to name Ben a 'defendant,' although it's been suggested. But I'd like to congratulate Ben on his engagement. It seems that this time, though, Big Ben's gone a 'court-in' and left his lawyer at home.

The Ravens have never lacked for confidence, and they certainly won't after a convincing win over the Chiefs. But if they think they can come to Heinz Field and expect us to be intimidated, I can only answer them in this way: 'That's 'No,' Raven.'"

Baltimore's Terrell Suggs has suggested that Saturday's Ravens/Steelers clash will be like "Armageddon." As they say, nothing heralds the arrival of hard-hitting January divisional playoff football like a comparison to global annihilation, and a CBS pre-game exposé on the rivalry, sound-tracked by Def Leppard's "Armageddon It" and narrated by Morgan Freeman. Jim Nantz asks Phil Simms "Are you gettin' it?" To which Simms replies, "Yes, armageddon it." And it's on.

As expected, the NFL's divisional opener is marked by in-your-face physicality, cheap shots, and limited forward progress, much like NFL labor negotiations. James Harrison incurs the league's first in-game fine when he is docked $12,500 for driving Flacco's face into the Heinz Field turf early in the game. Flacco picks the grass out of his teeth, lamenting the "unnecessary roughage" call, but recovers to find Todd Heap for 13-yard score and an early 7-0 Ravens lead. The Ravens lead throughout, but the game turns when Mike Wallace slips behind the Baltimore defense, and Roethlisberger connects for a 48-yard score. Pittsburgh wins, 17-13, and the "Ben-Wa- Ball" joins the "Immaculate Reception" as one of the greatest moments in Steelers history.

Green Bay @ Atlanta (-1)

The Packers completed a successful weekend for No. 6 seeds, toppling the third-seeded Eagles 21-16 in Philadelphia to advance to the divisional round for a Saturday night showdown against the top-seeded Falcons. Aaron Rodgers threw for 180 yards and 3 touchdowns, and a late turnover doomed the Eagles, as well as two missed field goals by David Akers.

"I hear they're calling Akers the 'Philly Erratic,'" said Rodgers. "If he were a ship, they'd call him 'Akers Away.' How badly did he miss? By acres. If he were a New York Met third baseman, they'd call him 'David Right.' Collectively, Akers and 68,000 disappointed Eagles fans are called 'Kicking and Screaming.' If he were a trailer, he'd be a 'double-wide.' Akers was taken to Lincoln Financial Field's in-house court and charged with 'failure to appear.' As it is, Akers may now be the best-known 'hooker' in Philadelphia.

It's great to get my first playoff win. I feel like a heavy burden has been lifted from my shoulders, as though I just had a massage. Finally, I can retire the talk of my inability to win a playoff game. The monkey is off my back, and that's big news. No, I didn't get a congratulatory phone call from Brett Favre. Nevertheless, I still sent him a text message photo of me 'spanking the monkey.' No doubt it was then forwarded to someone affiliated with the Jets organization."

The Falcons may be the NFL's most-offensively balanced team, with equally-potent passing and running games, but their defense may be the deciding factor in a successful playoff run. The Falcon defense will be pressed to contain Rodgers and the Packers dangerous passing game. Rodgers threw for 344 yards and a touchdown in Week 12, a game won 20-17 by the Falcons.

"Matt Ryan is not married to a supermodel; he's not a marketing machine; he's never been accused of sexual misconduct; his text messages are comprised of just that — text. If anything, he's guilty of underexposure. Heck, I don't think anyone's seen his weiner. But he is cool under pressure, which is the only time he's cool. They call him 'Matty Ice,' because 'Vanilla Ice' was already taken.

But enough with the small talk. Sure, the Packers are a dangerous team. Like us, they have the offense to keep up in a shootout, the defense to maintain in a low-scoring affair, and a coach with a sterling reputation, yet nothing to show for it. I'm already 0-1 in the playoffs, and a loss would burden me with the title of the coach who not only can't win the 'big one,' but can't win the 'one.'"

The Falcons will look to establish their ground game with Michael Turner, but to keep pace with the Packers, they'll need an offense that moves in more than three-yard increments. You've heard of the "five-yard chuck;" Turner's squatty build and yards per rush average have earned him the nickname "Three-Yard Chunk." The Packers score early and often, forcing the Falcons into a shootout. Rodgers throws for 312 yards and 3 scores, and the Packers win, 30-27.

Seattle @ Chicago (-9½)

The Seahawks earned a date at Soldier Field, and a measure of respect, with a wild 41-36 win over the Saints last week, sending the defending Super Bowl champs packing. Marshawn Lynch's incredible 67-yard touchdown run, in which he broke several tackles, gave the Seahawks an 11-point lead and effectively clinched the win.

"Who's not repeating as Super Bowl champions?" said Pete Carroll. "I think they pronounce it 'Naw Orleans' down in Louisiana. Call them the 'former' champs, and Lynch surely put an ex-clamation point on their demise. Marshawn is finally getting the recognition he deserves. The kid always runs hard, whether it's going towards the end zone or away from a crime scene. He shows total disregard for his body, as well as would-be tacklers and innocent bystanders.

Now, we're not going to Chicago satisfied with one playoff win. We're looking for more. If there's any talk of the Super Bowl in Chicago, we plan on hushing it. We call that our 'Super Bowl Shhhhhhhhh-uffle.' I hear that Terrell Owens likes our chances. Nice try, T.O. to ingratiate yourself to the Seahawks. I like your chances, not to be a Seahawk next year."

The 11-5 Bears will be well-rested for the Seahawks, with thoughts of avenging a week 6 23-20 loss to Seattle in Chicago. In that game, Jay Cutler was sacked 6 times, and Lynch debuted as a Seahawk with a touchdown run.

"That was a long time ago," Lovie Smith said, "when people were still deciding whether or not the Bears were a good team. Well, they're still deciding. Anyway, we don't fear the Seahawks. I believe they fear us though, because they're the ones 'quaking.' Sure, the Seahawks are coming here with loads of momentum, and the swagger that comes with an 8-9 record. I would say they're playing like a team that has 'nothing to lose.' That's an understatement. As 9 loses would suggest, they're playing like a team that has 'nothing more to lose.'

Six sacks is certainly unacceptable, but that all happened when Cutler was learning a new offense. It's called 'learning on the fly,' and sometimes, that can be painful. In other words, 'That's Martz.' Mike Martz, that is, who is the genius behind our offense when it flourishes, and an easy mark to blame when it sputters.

But this is Chicago. Defense wins championships, and makes cult heroes out of marginal talents. We like to think we have the very same ingredients that made the 1985 Bears great: defense, and marginal talents. Jim McMahon quarterback that great Chicago team to the Super Bowl. Not only was he cool on the field, but he also showed the ability to moon a hovering helicopter. So, Cutler is at least like McMahon in one respect; that being a tendency to 'crack' under pressure."

In their previous meeting, the Bears got no pressure on Hasselbeck. That will change on Sunday, when Julius Peppers, as he often does when a nationwide audience is watching, dominates. Peppers sacks Hasselbeck on Seattle's first possession, then lays a big hit on the Seahawk in the second quarter, causing a fumble and knocking Hasselbeck out of the game. Cutler stymies the Seattle defense with designed rollouts and quick slant patterns.

Chicago wins, 27-10.

NY Jets @ New England (-9)

The Jets won 17-16 in Indianapolis last week, avenging last year's AFC Championship Game loss and setting up a third battle with AFC East rival and top-seeded New England. Nick Folk's 32-yard field goal as time expired won it for New York, trumping Adam Vinatieri's 50-yard kick less than a minute earlier.

"I said earlier it was 'personal' against the Colts," said Rex Ryan. "I was wrong. Actually, it was 'personnel.' Thanks to head coach Jim Caldwell for calling a timeout with 29 seconds left, which helped make Nick Folk's game-winning field goal attempt a 32-yarder instead of a 50-yarder. That was likely the difference in saying 'Oh, Folk!' and something else. I'm amazed that Caldwell 'dropped the ball,' as opposed to Braylon Edwards.

It won't be easy returning to Gillette Stadium, site of our worst defeat this season. If we have any fear, we need to overcome it. All I can do is tell my guys to take a deep breath, relax, and then make sure I tell them to 'exhale,' and not 'blow out.'"

The Patriots begin the quest for their fourth Super Bowl win against a Jets team they whipped 45-3 in early December. A playoff win over New York won't come as easily, so Bill Belichick has the Patriots focused and taking nothing for granted.

"The great thing about preparing for a division opponent," said Belichick, "is that you have lots of film to view. Whether being filmed with their knowledge or not, the Jets always make good subjects. Let me tell you, we've watched more Jets film in the last two weeks than ever before. In fact, we're experiencing information overload, which is, as one would expect, a byproduct of viewing Rex and Mrs. Ryan's infamous 'foot fetish' videos. It's what you would call a 'sur-feet' of information. When the Ryan's really want to get freaky, they call in the 'podiatrix.'

"And speaking of 'foot fetishes,' we won't be sucked into a war of words with Ryan and the Jets. To be fair, 'trash talk' is the lone aspect of the matchup in which everyone can agree the Jets have the edge. They're the best at 'verbal sparring,' just as Santonio Holmes was best at 'herbal sparring' on his street corner in Belle Glade, Florida. Let's be clear: we plan to go 'toe-to-toe' with the Jets only in a figurative sense.

"Ryan's boisterous bravado is just a ploy to take the pressure off of Mark Sanchez, whose passer rating often hovers around the temperature. But I'm on to Rex's game. In reality, Rex has placed all the pressure on Sanchez. Ryan's challenged Sanchez to beat the Patriots. We're taking it one step further. We're going to dare Sanchez to beat us."

Brady comes out firing, targeting his new nemesis Antonio Cromartie on three straight passes, all completions, two to Deion Branch, and one directly to Cromartie's crotch, where the magic happens. Stocks in companies that provide paternity tests plummet the following day. Brady, in fact, has been called worse than "a-hole," mostly by Bridget Moynahan, and it didn't bother him then. As Brady passes Cromartie heading to the bench, he calmly and politely tells the Jet that "ring" is a four-letter word.

Brady hits Aaron Hernandez for an 11-yard touchdown strike, staking the Patriots to a lead they never relinquish. As the clock winds down, the Gillette Stadium pays tribute to a soon-to-be dated NFL rule, and one that made their dynasty possible, when they chant "We Will, We Will, Tuck You!"

New England wins, 27-14.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 4:38 PM | Comments (0)

If the BCS Came to Basketball...

The college football season is finally over ... time for hoops!

After the forever-long bowl season, I thought of what could happen if the BCS took a basketball turn. After the regular season was completed, conference tournaments would be obsolete and "bowls" would pick teams, setting up a BCS system for basketball.

Thinking about it, I think it'd go something like this...

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Washington

Ah, the way it should be: Big 10 vs. Pac-10. Held at the Staples Center, the parade is called off by pre-game pep rallies, which draw bigger crowds than the Clippers do all season. Ohio State comes into the game highly ranked and loaded with one of the best backcourts in college basketball. Washington is no slouch, but considered a heavy underdog as they end up finishing outside the AP top 10. The Huskies have some great shooters, as well, and you have to appreciate what Isaiah Thomas brings to the UW lineup. However, he'll have his hands full with Jared Sullinger. Keep an eye on Jon Diebler, especially behind the arc.

Fiesta: Texas vs. Syracuse

The Fiesta hasn't ever seen so much orange. Held at US Airways Arena in Phoenix, this could be one fantastic matchup. Since the Big 12 champion will go to the title game, Texas fills in the slot as the conference's second best squad. The Longhorns will always have an offensive kick to it as long as Rick Barnes is the coach, but this year's team is better defensively, too. Tristan Thompson is going to be hard for anyone to stop; he averages over 4 offensive rebounds and 2 blocks a game and brings power to what a power forward should be.

However, Big East champion Syracuse is the team most likely to give Thompson trouble. Syracuse has the perfect counter in Rick Johnson. Johnson, who averages a double-double every game (13.2 points, 11.9 rebounds) has owned the paint as opponents have yet to find a way to stop him. Johnson is the best player most people haven't heard of and should be considered for All-American honors. To put it nicely, this would never be a finesse game.

Sugar: Kentucky vs. BYU

As TCU gave the Mountain West its most recent football triumph before heading off to bigger conference pastures, BYU will head to the Big West doing the same story in basketball. The Cougars, who I think will hold off a fantastic San Diego State team in the long run, will take on the storied Kentucky program at the New Orleans Arena. Did someone say Jimmer? Jimmer Fredette just got through torching Utah and is the key to the Cougar offense. The veteran guard will take on this year's version of last year's McDonald's All-American high school squad. You do have to like the frontcourt-backcourt punch of Terrence Jones and Brandon Knight, though. Kentucky should breeze through a very weak SEC, so if this game was to be played, BYU might be their biggest test in months.

Orange: Purdue vs. Pittsburgh

It's at-large vs. at-large, since the ACC champ is headed for the title game and Syracuse takes the Fiesta slot. American Airlines Arena will be pumped as the Boilers, who have risen back to the nation's elite under Matt Painter, will take on Jamie Dixon's scrappy Panther squad. I'll be honest, I didn't think Purdue would be this good without Robbie Hummel. However, JaJuan Johnson has been fantastic so far for the Boilers in the frontcourt. E'Twaun Moore has stepped up as well, and despite Purdue's lack of size, the Boilers play smart, disciplined basketball that has carried them to a 15-1 mark so far.

Pittsburgh is once again a solid basketball team. Ashton Gibbs is a deadly shooter, and though Brad Wanamaker can be sloppy at times, he is usually a fantastic guard who spreads the ball well. The one question in the game would be if the frontcourt of Gilbert Brown, Nasir Robinson, and Gary McGhee can stop Johnson in the paint. If they can, edge to Pitt. If not, big edge to the Boilers.

BCS Title Game: Duke vs. Kansas

Two storied programs take to the court at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis in what would be a great finish to the college basketball season. Duke has Nolan Smith. Kansas has Josh Selby. Duke has Kyle Singler. Kansas has Marcus Morris. Duke has the most talented backcourt in college basketball, Kansas would have the edge up front. The keys to this game would be if a) either team is able to hit from the perimeter, b) if Kansas can keep the Morris brothers out of foul trouble and dominating the boards, and c) if Josh Selby can show he's grown up fast on the court as a freshman and can help slow down Smith, which is an incredibly difficult task. All in all, it's a matchup no one wouldn't mind watching.

So that's how college basketball would look if it went to bowl games. When it's all said and done, though, as good as these matchups are, I'd take March Madness every single time.

What about you?

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:42 PM | Comments (0)

January 12, 2011

Rex Ryan Proves He Still Doesn't Get It

Rex Ryan just can't help himself. Less than 48 hours removed from beating a depleted Indianapolis Colts team, Ryan set a new standard for braggadocio on Monday when he ranted against New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and head coach Bill Belichick.

The quotes have been played out across the nation, so there's no point in rehashing them in this space, but let's just say Ryan is more than confident his team will win Sunday and move on to a second consecutive AFC Championship Game. Moreover, he is convinced that the reason his team will move on is that he will win a mano-a-mano battle of wits with Belichick.

Now there are three key problems with Ryan's arguments:

The first issue with Ryan putting himself against Belichick is the sheer difference in accomplishment between the two men:

Belichick has 177 career wins. Ryan has 23.

Belichick has five Super Bowl rings, three as the head coach of the Patriots (2001, 2003, and 2004) and two as defensive coordinator for the New York Giants (1986, 1990). Ryan's lone ring came as the defensive line coach with the Baltimore Ravens in 2000.

Belichick is a future Hall of Famer and widely considered one of the top five head coaches in the history of the NFL. At this point, Ryan has more credentials to become a WWE announcer than an NFL Hall of Famer.

If I could somehow put all that in a single tweet, the hashtag #notevenclose would be a pretty good way to end it. It would be like some rookie hitter in baseball coming out and talking trash to Roy Halladay in the press because he got him for a double the last time they faced. For a guy who grew up around sports, Ryan sure seems to have missed the lesson about earning your respect before opening your mouth.

(And speaking of opening their mouth, why is it that the people who go around talking the most trash are the ones who complain the loudest when somebody talks trash back? Do Jets players not remember the taunting by Braylon Edwards in the Jets' Week 2 win? So how can they act all offended by the Patriots rubbing it in when New England won 45-3 Dec. 6? You can't have it both ways. If you're not going to show any class in victory, you can't expect any in return when you're getting your ass handed to you.)

The second issue with Ryan's smack talking is that it is so inconsistent with what we have seen and learned over the course of sports history.

Look at all the great coaches and managers in the history of American professional sports. Can you imagine Tom Landry ever calling out Fran Tarkenton for not studying like Johnny Unitas or Bobby Cox saying before the 1999 World Series that it was personal between him and Joe Torre because Torre's Yankees beat Cox's Braves in the 1996 Series?

Of course not. You can look up and down the list of great leaders in every sport, and nowhere will you find an all-time great going out of his way to regularly make himself the center of attention by denigrating his opponent as Ryan has repeatedly done in his short tenure with the Jets. There is absolutely no precedent for this kind of classless behavior being in any way helpful toward winning championships.

I'm not sure what Ryan's real goal is with all this talk. Maybe he thinks he's doing his team a favor by making it about him, but it's just as likely going to serve as a distraction than anything else. But the fact remains it will be the players who will step on the field Sunday in Foxboro, a place where the Patriots have outscored the Jets 76-17 during Ryan's tenure in New York. And though Ryan's antics will fill up the airwaves between now and then, they will mean exactly jack all come kick off.

He just better hope his brain is as big as his mouth.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 4:24 PM | Comments (1)

Everyday Tennis Clubhouse Moments

Every day, tennis players spend most of their time in their clubhouses or on the courts. Especially compared to the time that they spend watching some ATP or WTA action on TV, the clubhouse moments represent by a wide margin the primary connection of today's tennis fan with the sport that he/she loves.

Yet strangely, while a lot is written around the media and in the vast arena of World Wide Web (does anyone use this name anymore?), surprisingly few of that material cover what actually happens in the clubhouses, even though the latter would touch the reader more on a personal level than the amount of money a top 10 player won by winning the title at some tournament.

As someone who has been a part of the problem — I also write mostly about the world of tennis that the media covers — I decided that my first article of 2011 shall be about our everyday moments in the clubhouse. For example, what would be considered as the favorite moment of the clubhouse for the restaurant's manager or the barman?

If I were one of them, I would look for a hot debate around a table, one that is preferably populated with a couple of older members who are known to have strong opinions. Throw in a hot issue such as "who is the best player of all-time in men's tennis?" and if you are smart, completely ignore older players who should be rightfully considered in the topic and with whom the members in question may identify such as Bjorn Borg and Rod Laver, and you have hit the jackpot.

Sit back and listen to them argue why those players should be in the same discussion with Roger Federer and Pete Sampras. Well, actually take back the "sit back" advice; you should rather be serving "efficiently and conveniently" plenty of beers and chips until they get hungry, at which point you can take their burger orders while they are completely immersed in discussing details like Sampras' bad clay-court record and Laver's Calendar Grand Slam.

If the conversation seems to slow down, be ready to jump in for a minute or two with a "refuel the fire" topic such as the physical fitness of today's players compared to the previous generation. Do not forget to inflame the same members' passions by perhaps "observing" that today's players are in such better physical shape than older players. Last, but not the least, you can have a partner in crime, say an assistant or a bartender, who "wisely" interjects and reminds you that older players did not get to profit from today's equipment, that they did not have the option of playing tie-breakers to keep the sets short, and going into further details, that they did not have the luxury to sit down during change-overs (see 1969 Wimbledon final between Rod "Rocket" Laver and John "Newk" Newcombe), so therefore they must have been in just as good shape, if not better — watch the heads of the older members nodding in unison!

If the same type of setting takes place with a relatively younger group of members, preferably a group of "yuppies" who happen to think that their opinions naturally supersede others, you have to look no further than the Roger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal rivalry. All you have to hope is that one of them happens to be an ardent Nadal fan, and another one of them a Federer fan. In the case of a slow-down, bring up conveniently to the pro-Federer side the tears of the latter at the end of the Australian Open Final and Nadal's lead in the head-to-head count, or to the pro-Nadal side, the large lead Federer enjoys over his rival in just about every other category that really counts. The only thing that should remain constant here is once again the number of beers served; the more the merrier for the clubhouse's well-being.

What about if you happen to be the tournament director who happens to run a popular week-long tournament for a week that has draws for every age category? Wouldn't some of your most memorable moments come in the form of questions by the participants? "Can you please put me on court six? It's on that court that I hear much less the dog barking from the yard of the house next to the clubhouse" ... "Put my match late in the afternoon on that court over there, because it gets shady there after 3 PM" (imperative tone since this particular one happens to be a long-time member with deep pockets) ... "I have had a bad stomach, I am just letting you know in advance, I will have to leave the court to go to the bathroom several times" (and each time turns out to be about 15 minutes in length)...

This following one happens to be when you, as the tournament director, need to advance things quickly the most (speech slightly slurred as a result a few beers): "Can we get a 15-minute break if we split? You know how it is at our age; the body is playin' tricks on ya"; ... "Are you kidding me? I can't play on that court, that is where I lost a match from match point up last year in this very tournament!" ... and finally, a mad parent yelling, "How dare you default my son because he is late one hour for the match? We have been paying members here for seven years!"

What about those members who are on the court, but whose diluted minds in the heat of the sun or under the effects of their age and their inflated egos somehow convince them into believing that they are playing a match on the center court of a big famous tournament and that everyone cares, hence they dare to ask, or rather order, everyone in the outside bar of the clubhouse next to the court to be quiet because they can't concentrate?

How many times have you entered the locker room, only to find the front of your locker invaded by dirty, stinky tennis clothes and socks that the next member just took off before going take a shower, but did not bother to arrange in a manner that allows you to use some of the space on that particular spot of the locker room? And the ones doing this, aren't they always those who happen to take 30-minute showers? Your options are to wait or move the pile yourself to access your locker, in other words, not enviable options at all.

This following moment would be one that no clubhouse manager or the person in charge would want to experience: you hear a loud and agitated voice approaching your vicinity: "Does anyone have a medical kit? There has been an accident in the weight room!"

Here is a moment which makes the day of a club manager who happens to run a club with only hard courts, but who is visiting his or her friend who happens to be running one with clay courts: while you are casually discussing with your friend your weekend activities, the maintenance man reports to your friend that the water sprinklers malfunctioned and did not come on the night before, and that the courts are "bone-dry and about to crack!"

The favorite moment of a club team's captain, assuming that he or she has one cheater on his team with whom nobody wants to partner up to play doubles in the upcoming season of league play: a new and preferably clueless member joins the club, and thus your team, and does not know a thing about anyone since he or she just moved to the area. Perfect!

And finally, I am sure most people have come across those people who complain loud and clear when they are moved from their favorite courts to a another, simply because the local senator who is also a member at the club or some really important and prestigious member wanted that court; and yet, they feel no shame or remorse dropping out of a pre-arranged doubles match with their "friends" at the last minute, because that same senator-member, or "prestigious and important" member called them up to join them for an hour of tennis at that same time.

I am sure I have left many other memorable moments out. If you can think of some of your own personal favorites, feel free to add them with your comments. Have a great beginning to 2011!

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 2:34 PM | Comments (4)

January 11, 2011

Auburn Survives Oregon in Dramatic, Awkward Game

In a stadium filled with bright orange and "electric" yellow, the color that helped Auburn systemically bury the Ducks in what turned out to be quite a strange BCS title game was red.

Red, as in the red zone. Oregon had its chances. The team moved the ball 449 yards. Yet the Ducks couldn't manage more than 19 points. Oregon had two trips inside the Auburn 5 yard-line result in a combined three points.

Red, as in the color Auburn's Nick Fairley had Oregon seeing all night. Whether it was maddeningly unstoppable penetration or the occasional cheap shot that he's become known for, no player on the field proved more disruptive to the Ducks' usually unstoppable offense.

Red as in the color of a challenge flag. (Sure, college replay revolves around booth reviews and not coach challenges, but work with me here.) Two key questionable plays that were reviewed effectively book-ended Auburn's scoring and sawed off the Ducks at the knees.

Red (albeit in a darker shade) as in rust, as both offenses proved to be far short of midseason-form, much less championship-form after the usual long layoff since they last played Dec 4.

And last but not least, red, the color of roses, which, after watching a championship game in which neither team truly impressed, TCU probably doesn't think smell so sweet anymore.

(I won't harp on this past this paragraph as under the current system, these were the best two teams in the country. But with both teams making plenty of mistakes and TCU playing an absolutely great game to beat a tough Wisconsin team, it's hard to argue that the well-drilled Horned Frogs couldn't play with either team out there tonight. *cough* PLAYOFF. That is all.)

But in the end, the result was as clear cut as it could possibly be in a game decided by a last second field goal. There is no debating: Auburn earned a national championship Monday night. (In a sick world where we have to choose champions based on opinion, Auburn's resume is simply better than that of TCU, end of story.) The Tigers, were clearly talented, although by no means great. But Monday night, it was enough. And Oregon needs only a mirror to understand why.

Sure, two reviewed calls referred to could be argued either way. But they can hardly be blamed. Oregon's Cliff Harris had an apparent interception on a magnificent play on the sidelines that was initially ruled an incompletion. But while Harris defied physics and got his arm down in bounds, the replay couldn't convince officials that the ball didn't move in his hands when he finished rolling over. I'm not sure a called interception gets overturned, but the call was basically a toss-up. Auburn scored its first touchdown on the next play.

Later, Michael Dwyer, on a short gain, rolled over an Oregon tackler who thought he'd done his job, pulling the running back down. So did Dwyer, who stopped after rolling over. But the bench told him to run, and into easy field goal range he scampered to set up a game winner. The replay showed his wrist (or perhaps even his ankle) might have touched the ground while everyone focused on the knee. I'm not sure a call of down-by-contact gets overturned, but the call was basically a toss-up. Auburn won the game a few plays later, thanks to a play that was as odd as any decisive play in bowl history.

Surprisingly enough, it was both defenses that played well enough to win. If you would have told either team that the opposition would fall short of 23 points, they'd have been clearing shelf-space for a crystal football weeks ago. A dominating defensive line effort, headed by Fairley, kept the Oregon running game in check, the passing game hurried, and basically did everything possible to slow down the Ducks.

The Ducks defense also played well enough to win. When a defense is supposedly overmatched against a Heisman winner as big as many of your linemen, holding that Heisman winner to what, for him, was a pretty average stat-line and Auburn's second lowest point total of the season, you have to call it a win.

But Cam Newton can move on to the NFL and stop pretending he's not being paid to play football with a national title ring (pending future investigations) because he did enough to win. That stat-line still involved 265 passing yards. And although it came with a meager average, his 65 yards on the ground included some key conversions. At times, the Ducks seemed helpless to stop Auburn, like many teams before them this year.

And if you play devil's advocate and the "what if" game for Oregon's red-zone trips, you have to do the same on a couple of absurdly easy touchdown passes Newton missed. Short-arming an easy throw to a wide open receiver on fourth-and-goal at the one may have set up a safety, but it still took a touchdown off the board. And receivers don't come any more open than Darvin Adams was in the third quarter, finding himself well behind the defense. Newton overthrew him ... by a lot.

But despite Newton's hot-cold performance, it was the vaunted Ducks offense that truly disappointed, and for the second straight BCS Bowl. Chip Kelly made some great calls, faking a punt and an extra point to success, and showing guts on fourth down. But quarterback Derron Thomas' inconsistency and curious playcalling put the Ducks in an untenable position: Oregon wasn't going to win by scoring 11 points in the first 55 minutes of the game.

LaMichael James carried the ball a total of 13 times to go with 4 catches. That is not enough for a player like him. Even on this elite stage and with no true trademark runs to truly open the throttle, he was clearly the fastest, most electric player on the field.

Thomas, meanwhile, was less than sharp, throwing an early interceptions and making faulty reads, reads that Auburn made more difficult but not impossible, in the Ducks vaunted spread option attack.

Worse, the play-calling that lead to the goal-line failures were inexplicable. Repeated runs up the middle were stonewalled by a defensive line that had given them trouble all game, as a notoriously diverse playbook seemed to mysteriously slam shut. Finally, on the final drive, Oregon got into the end-zone from in close at the two. With something as mildly innovative as running off-tackle, James had plenty of room to score. Then, on the conversion, a Thomas throwback to Jeff Maehl against the grain (see also: first touchdown to James) created a dramatic tie and thrilling finish. See, two in a row by staying creative; that wasn't so hard now, was it?

But really, both teams were just a bit off offensively. The game we all expected (or at least wanted) had James playing a bigger role. It had Newton completing those two easy touchdown passes to cement a legacy. It had Oregon finishing drives with touchdowns, not failing to get the offense on track for a second straight bowl.

Each team had more than five weeks off since it last played. And it showed. The most feared two offensive teams in the country couldn't score a measly point in the first quarter, and combined for 14 in the entire second half. Do you think that a meeting during the regular season (or perhaps after a couple of *cough* PLAYOFF wins mixed into their 36 days off)? Really?

While certainly not a letdown from any kind of dramatic standpoint, the title game was, in a word, awkward.

But hey, Auburn fans: enjoy the hell out of it. Your awkward title counts just as much as any other.

For now.

Posted by Kyle Jahner at 7:29 PM | Comments (0)

Has the Blake Griffin Era Begun?

The NBA has given us many lessons over the years. The emphasis of individual over team is one that is repeatedly forced onto the basketball fan time and again. It began the celebrated star era with Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, and Michael Jordan, although the teams they played on had other Hall of Fame players. In the NBA's search for the next 'it guy' and leading jersey seller in order to fuel the star system, the current era has become muddied.

Is the Kobe Bryant era winding down? Is LeBron's just starting now that he has Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh to help him pursue a championship? Did Tim Duncan ever get his due? Will he? Has the Kevin Durant and Chris Paul era begun? Has the Carmelo Anthony era begun or is the NBA waiting for him to join the Knicks? Or is the current era all of the above?

One fact seems to be certain: Blake Griffin is now being talked about as though his era has begun. Fans may begin to ask, however, is it too soon? He has yet to finish his rookie season or what is being called his rookie season, which is really his second year in the NBA. The answer is simple: in NBA time, it is never too early to start an era, anoint a chosen one, and the hype can never be too great when it comes to NBA stars.

Blake Griffin has now entered the stratosphere of NBA superstardom. He warrants his own ticker lines that announce he will participate in the dunk contest. His dunks and highlights are featured during shows like "Pardon the Interruption," "Around the Horn," and other non-"SportsCenter" programming. He also has his own section of merchandise on the Los Angeles Clippers online NBA store.

He has entered the rarified air of being the newest Michael Jordan heir apparent. Kobe was Jordan's heir apparent because he won and was ruthless on the court. Kevin Durant's all-around game recently made him Jordan's heir apparent and as a bonus, he is a nice guy off the court who says and does all the right things. NBA fans have been told repeatedly that Durant is a throwback to Jordan's kinder and gentler NBA superstar.

But Blake Griffin is now Jordan's "air apparent." Griffin's slam dunks, we have been told, will bring back memories of Jordan during the NBA All-Star Game and make the slam dunk contest not only relevant again, but an event worth watching.

Griffin has developed a complete game and his statistics show that he is more than a slam dunking machine. Griffin is 18th in the NBA in field goal percentage at .520, which is second among rookies, 15th in scoring with 21.7 points per game, is tied for third in the NBA with 12.7 rebounds per game, and is averaging 3 assists per game.

It may be time to begin to ask if Blake Griffin will deliver on the all of the hype. Will he make the Clippers relevant? Is it possible that the Clippers can be talked about as a franchise with a viable basketball future? Is there basketball in Los Angeles past the Lakers?

The Clippers Suddenly Have a Future

It is extraordinary to think the Los Angeles Clippers have become relevant in sports. Especially when their record indicates they are wining at a .300 clip. The fact the Clippers started 1-13 makes the attention given to them — more specifically Griffin — all the more amazing.

The Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets are winning at a more blistering .400 pace, but don't receive half of the headlines. The Detroit Pistons also have a .300 percentage, but the story in Motown is more about who will own the team and not any individual player or team potential. The Toronto Raptors are another team with a .300 winning percentage, but are virtually invisible on the NBA landscape. Can one player make a difference in one of the worst franchises in its respective league?

Some franchises just know how to lose and become irrelevant over time. The owners know how to make money and put a horrible product on the field of play. When the phrases "worst run" franchise and "worst winning percentage" of any franchise in recent years are discussed, generally two teams come to the forefront and dominate the conversation — the Los Angeles Clippers and the Detroit Lions. The title of worst franchise is traded between the teams like the New England Patriots trade for draft picks.

The Lions delivered a Clipper-like .375 winning percentage this year, but were often called the best "worst" team in the NFL. The player on the Lions who commanded the media's attention and was talked about most was Ndamukong Suh. Blake Griffin has become the NBA's Suh and the hope for the fans of another beleaguered sports franchise. Griffin's dunking, like Suh's sacks, has garnered the most attention. It is however, Suh's and Griffin's complete games that will keep them relevant for years to come.

Blake Griffin's emergence shouldn't come as much of a surprise because of his long and extensive college resume. He won 14 2008-2009 National Player of the Year awards. The list includes the Naismith, Wooden, AP Player of the Year, Sports Illustrated, ESPN.com, CBSSports.com, and FOXSports.com Player of the Year awards. He averaged 22.7 points in his last season at Oklahoma and looked like a man among boys throughout his last collegiate season. The injury in his first year clearly forced him off the radar, but his second rookie campaign has solidified him as an emerging superstar.

All of the collegiate accolades meant nothing when Griffin missed his first campaign because of knee surgery. The Clippers appeared as though they were going to force another college star into oblivion like Danny Manning. Griffin, however, has forced the Clippers faithful to have a short memory and his second campaign has proven to be incredibly successful.

Posted by Vito Curcuru at 3:45 PM | Comments (4)

January 10, 2011

NFL 2010 Wild Card Weekend

Playoff Edition Six Quick Hits

* Let me get this straight. The only home team not to lose this weekend was the 7-9 Seahawks?

* Surprising list of HOF Finalists this year, including two — Jerome Bettis and Charles Haley — who have no business in the state of Ohio, much less the Hall of Fame. My favorites: Dermontti Dawson, Chris Doleman, Marshall Faulk, Chris Hanburger, Les Richter, Ed Sabol, and Deion Sanders.

* Showing kickoffs for the Ravens/Chiefs game, CBS exclusively used the worst-seat-in-the-house cam, where you lose all meaningful depth perception and can't tell where the returner is. I don't know anyone who likes that camera angle, and it's a disservice to viewers.

* How about that playoff officiating? A couple small questions aside (mostly in Walt Coleman's game), I thought the officials did a great job this weekend.

* The 49ers won the Jim Harbaugh sweepstakes, the Raiders fired their best head coach in a decade, the Dolphins apologized to Tony Sparano, and the Cowboys fired the assistant they used to satisfy the Rooney Rule. Four teams still need head coaches.

* The NFL is determined to go to an 18-game schedule, despite almost universal opposition from players. Last season, the Colts and Saints played 19 games each. Both teams were devastated by injuries this season and lost their wild card games. If the schedule expands, it's not going to be about who's the best, just who has the fewest injuries.

***

For years, I've resisted the notion that Adam Vinatieri deserves to make the Hall of Fame. On Saturday, Vinatieri kicked his longest field goal in two years, giving his team a last-minute lead in a playoff game. If I had to choose one player to kick a crucial field goal, there's no doubt it would be Vinatieri. He is an unparalleled clutch kicker, and no one else in history has made half as many important kicks. Statheads, of whom I am one, sometimes frown at Vinatieri's regular-season numbers, which don't jump off the page. He's the Lynn Swann of kickers. Vinatieri holds just about every postseason record a kicker could want. Maybe I'll feel differently five or six years from now, but at this moment, I'd support his candidacy for Canton.

Wild card analysis below, divisional round predictions below that, All-Loser Team at the bottom.

Wild Card Roundups

Seahawks 41, Saints 36

How unlikely was Seattle's victory on Saturday?

* The Seahawks' 24 first-half points were a season-high.
* Their 41 total points were a season-high.
* The Saints hadn't allowed more than 30 points all season.

* Matt Hasselbeck posted a season-high 113.0 passer rating against the Saints.
* Hasselbeck threw 4 TD passes, doubling his regular-season high.
* The Saints were fourth in the NFL in pass defense and allowed the fewest passing TDs (13) in the league this season.

* Marshawn Lynch's 67-yard touchdown run was the longest of his career.
* Saturday was Lynch's first 100-yard game as a Seahawk, and his 131 rushing yards were the most he's had since November 2008.
* And of course, the Seahawks have the worst record of any playoff team in history (.438) and were double-digit underdogs.

You know what's really crazy? The Seahawks are still under .500. They're 8-9! They played by far their best game of the season, and still won by less than a touchdown. Having noted all of that, was this really as shocking as NBC played it up to be? I wrote last week in my Week 17 Power Rankings that all of the weakest teams to qualify for the postseason in a non-strike year have won their first playoff game. The Saints had a short week to travel to the farthest stadium in the league. That stadium, which already has a reputation as the league's loudest, was packed for Seattle's first home playoff game since the 2007 season. The game was outdoors, with a 35° wind chill, only the third cold-weather game all season for the Saints (who play in a dome). Yes, the result was an upset, and I predicted the Saints would win by a touchdown. The biggest upset in playoff history? I really don't think so.

The New Orleans offense kept up its end of the bargain. When you score 36 points, you expect to win. The Saints were minus their top two running backs, and missed the consistency and versatility Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory could have provided. Drew Brees threw 60 passes, which is far too many. But when you score 36 points, you expect to win. The Saints lost with defense and special teams.

NBC's analysts were very hard on the New Orleans defense, and deservingly so. Hasselbeck and Lynch had by far their best games of the season. Lynch's gem of a run was inspiring to watch, one of the greatest plays in postseason history, but it was also an example of incredibly poor tackling. Lynch broke or evaded 8 tackles on that one play. If you put it in a movie, audiences would dismiss the run as unrealistic and phony. But it really happened, to a professional defense.

All game, the Saints' defenders looked slow to react and unexcited about tackling — lots of olés and not much wrapping up. Converted cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, who moved to free safety this year and played very well, missed Saturday's game with an injury, and the impact of his absence was obvious. The Saints' pass-rush and secondary, in particular, looked remarkably poor.

The Saints also lost big on special teams. They spent the first half trying to keep the ball away from Leon Washington, with the result that Seattle started every drive at or beyond its own 30-yard line. Kicking away from punt returners is a basically good idea. Kickoff returners? Not so much. Washington is one of the best kickoff returners in the NFL, maybe the best. His return average this year was 25.6 yards, with only 5% of the returns going for TDs. In the second half, when the Saints finally did kick to Washington, Seattle took over inside the 30 all three times: 21, 24, and 29. But the damage was already done, and New Orleans' own return game was anemic throughout. Meanwhile, Jon Ryan, Seattle's fine punter, pinned the Saints inside their own 20 on three of his four punts. The Saints were playing from behind all game with regard to field position.

I don't intend solely to disparage the Saints, poorly as they played. Hasselbeck made some legitimately great throws, and his receivers made some legitimately great catches. Lynch's run was sensational. Seattle's good play on special teams created opportunities, and the team took advantage of them. The Seahawks played well, and they deserved to win, but that doesn't mean we shouldn't be disappointed by the Saints' poor showing.

Final note on this game: the announcing crew of Tom Hammond and Mike Mayock was terrible, probably the worst I've heard since Brad Nessler and Trent Dilfer in Week 1. Repeatedly, players and teams were misidentified, the ball and the first down marker were spotted incorrectly, it was just bush league. My (least) favorite quote was Mayock in the fourth quarter: "That's a lot of big, sloppy bodies banging into each other." Ew.

Also, and I admit this may not be entirely fair, but Mayock always sounds like he's spitting while he talks. "The Theattle Thee-hawks..." Actually, he would never say that. It was always just "the Hawks." I don't mind shortened nicknames, and I've referred to the team as the 'Hawks, but to do it exclusively gets annoying very quickly. If he had called John Carlson "the Golden Domer" just one more time, I would have had to fly to Seattle and slap him. Very unpleasant broadcast to accompany an exciting game.

Jets 17, Colts 16

Am I the only one tired of watching the Colts lose close, winnable big games? This team has so much promise, so much capacity to generate excitement, and it seldom seems to deliver. One of the culprits, for all the good things he has accomplished in the past two seasons, is head coach Jim Caldwell. His gameplan is so conservative that I think it hurts the team. The Jets have a good defense and the Colts have some injuries, but how does an offense this good score just one touchdown and 16 points, at home, in its most important game of the season?

It's the fourth quarter, 4:41 left, and you're down 14-10. You have the ball at the opponents' 14-yard line, 4th and 6. Peyton Manning is your quarterback. What do you do? Coach Caldwell kicked a field goal, 14-13. The Colts later did score again, and when you can't hold a lead for :47 — well, that's a whole different issue — but the point is this: Caldwell is always happy to take the field goal. There's no killer instinct, no attempt at the knockout punch. This team is not good enough to play it safe like that.

Also missing on Saturday: Pro Bowl defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who combined for no sacks and one hit on the quarterback. The Jets have a good offensive line, and Brian Schottenheimer called a lot of plays on which Mark Sanchez could get rid of the ball quickly, but when those guys have no impact in a game, the Colts are in trouble. This was an equal-opportunity loss for Indianapolis. The offense didn't play up to its potential, a big return allowed by the special teams set up New York's game-winning field goal, and the defense couldn't stop the Jets in the second half.

The Jets nullified the Indianapolis ground game, churned out first downs with their rushing attack, and repeatedly got receivers open (even when Sanchez couldn't hit them). The Jets' MVP: CB Darrelle Revis. This season, Reggie Wayne caught 111 passes for 1,355 yards and 72 first downs. On Saturday, he had 1 catch and gained 1 yard. Sanchez, despite very occasional moments of brilliance, does not inspire confidence. But this team's offensive line, special teams, and defense are good enough to win a lot of games.

Ravens 30, Chiefs 7

Kansas City lost its seventh straight playoff game, an NFL record. The Chiefs are a good, young team, and mostly stayed healthy this season, but they were outmatched in this contest. During the regular season, Kansas City beat only one playoff team: the Seahawks. In fact, Seattle and Indianapolis were the only playoff teams the Chiefs even faced this season. They weren't truly battle-tested, and it showed on Sunday.

The Chiefs struggled on defense this weekend — they never found a way to cover Todd Heap — but the pass rush was effective, and it was a showcase game for rising star Tamba Hali, who had two sacks. The real ugliness was on offense. Matt Cassel threw 3 interceptions and finished with a 20.4 passer rating. Dwayne Bowe didn't catch a pass. Bowe had some big games this season, but it's too easy to take him out of the game. The one player who was effective for Kansas City's offense, RB Jamaal Charles, got just two carries in the second half, for a combined total of -5 yards.

During the regular season, facing a schedule full of creampuffs, Kansas City committed just 14 turnovers, less than one per game. On Sunday, the Ravens forced 5 turnovers. A dominant performance and an easy win for the better team.

Packers 21, Eagles 16

In last year's playoff loss, Aaron Rodgers passed for 422 yards and scored 5 TDs (4 pass, 1 run), with a 121.3 passer rating. Against the Eagles, he passed for just 180 yards, but with 3 TDs and a 122.5 rating. And his best pass, a rainbow that fell right into James Jones' hands and should have been a 63-yard touchdown, was dropped. Announcers frequently go over the top calling passes "perfect," but this one was.

No one should be surprised that Rodgers played well, but the success of Green Bay's running game, featuring rookie James Starks, caught everyone — including Philadelphia — off-guard. Starks, who had 101 yards during the regular season, rushed for 123 against the Eagles. The Packers got so enamored with their success on the ground, though, that they almost gave the game away. In the fourth quarter, Green Bay's strategy clearly was to run out the clock. The best way to do that is by sustaining drives, not running into eight-man fronts. In the game's most critical moments, you want the ball in the hands of your best player, and that's Rodgers.

Really, scoring 21 against the Eagles is nothing special. They allowed an average of 23.6 during the regular season. Where Green Bay really excelled was on defense. In recent weeks, defenses were successful against Michael Vick by blitzing him almost constantly, and that's clearly what the Eagles expected on Sunday. Instead, the Packers blitzed very seldom, especially in the first half, and it seemed to confuse Vick early on. Green Bay also was effective at keeping Vick in the pocket, and it didn't hurt that he never seemed 100%.

David Akers made the Pro Bowl this year. Akers is a good kicker, and he's had a terrific career. But he didn't have a good season, and he didn't deserve to make the Pro Bowl. He led the NFL in scoring, and that combined with name recognition is why he got in. But Akers scored a lot of points because he attempted a lot of field goals, not because he was better at them than anyone else. Akers ranked 15th this year in FG%. He missed twice from inside 40 yards and didn't hit anything over 50.

On Sunday, he missed two critical kicks. One, in the first half, was understandable, 41 yards into the wind. The other, in the fourth quarter, was 34 yards with the wind at his back. On 4th-and-1, Andy Reid, you've got to go for that.

Divisional Forecast

All four divisional games are regular-season rematches. The Ravens and Steelers split a pair of 3-point decisions, each winning on the road. The Patriots and Jets also split the season series, with the Jets taking Week 2, and the Patriots winning 45-3 in Week 13. The Packers lost by a field goal in Atlanta. The Seahawks beat the Bears in Chicago in Week 6, sacking Jay Cutler 6 times.

It's worth noting that the Ravens and Packers both get just six days to rest before their next games, the Seahawks and Jets eight days.

Ravens at Steelers

You'd be hard-pressed to find two teams more evenly matched. The edge, I think, has to go to Pittsburgh, because the Ravens have to go on the road with a short week to prepare. Of course, they've seen the Steelers twice already, so maybe they don't need as much prep work as they normally would, but you never want to be underprepared for a playoff game.

Both teams have great defenses and good ground games. The wild cards in this contest are (1) quarterback play, (2) special teams, and (3) Ray Rice. Honestly, whichever team wins the turnover battle — I'm looking at you, Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed — will probably win the game. Mike Wallace and Rice are the most dynamic offensive players on the field. If the Ravens can get Rice 15-20 carries and 5-10 catches, he's going to make a couple of big plays, maybe the type that can swing a game. In close games, a long field goal, a short miss, a big return, or a punt downed near the goal line can often determine the outcome.

Points 2 and 3 probably favor the Ravens. But in a playoff matchup of Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco, you're betting on Big Ben. I think Flacco makes a couple mistakes against Pittsburgh's league-best defense, and Roethlisberger does enough to get the win. Pittsburgh wins (by 3, of course).

Packers at Falcons

The Packers are a great team. They have a good offense and a sensational defense. I don't see them winning this game. There are too many injuries. It's their second road game in seven days, and the Falcons are awfully tough at home.

In their first meeting, Green Bay out-gained Atlanta by over 100 yards and Rodgers had a great game (344 yards, 114.5 rating, 51 rush yards, rushing and passing TDs). But Green Bay couldn't run the ball and settled for a couple of short field goals, while the Falcons turned their red zone opportunities into touchdowns. Maybe things will be different this team. Starks ran effectively against Philadelphia, John Kuhn has been effective in short yardage, and Green Bay's defense usually is good enough to limit opponents to field goals.

The problem is that this isn't just about Green Bay. Matt Ryan and Michael Turner both had big games against the Packers in Week 12. Atlanta's defense is almost as good as Green Bay's. The Falcons didn't win by coincidence, because the Packers had an off week. Green Bay played well, and it wasn't enough. As always, turnovers are the wild card. If Clay Matthews or Charles Woodson or someone comes up big, the Packers could steal this and it wouldn't surprise anyone. But I'll say Atlanta wins by 6.

Seahawks at Bears

The Seahawks somehow won their first meeting, which was also in Chicago. I have all sorts of concerns about the Bears, and if Seattle plays the way it did against New Orleans, Chicago will lose. But I'm not picking Seattle to beat anyone this postseason. Bears by a touchdown.

Jets at Patriots

The Jets have reached the second round of the playoffs in both of the last two seasons. They're obviously doing something right. The Jets beat New England 28-14 in Week 2 before getting stomped down, 45-3, in December. The "real" Jets are more like the team that won in Week 2, but the real Pats are the team that destroyed them in Week 13.

New England won five of its last six games by more than 20 points and went 8-0 at home. New York has a very good defense; the Patriots have a historic offense. The Jets have an okay offense; the Pats have a very good defense. Both teams have pretty good special teams. Tom Brady only threw 4 interceptions during the regular season. Unless he matches that total next Sunday, the Patriots will win, though not by 6 TDs this time. Let's say New England by 10.

***

Finally, a Sports Central tradition, our annual All-Loser Team: an all-star team made up entirely of players whose teams missed the postseason. If this team could actually be assembled, it would destroy any and every team in the playoffs.

2010 NFL All-Loser Team

QB Philip Rivers, SD
RB Arian Foster, HOU
WR Brandon Lloyd, DEN
WR Andre Johnson, HOU
WR Calvin Johnson, DET
TE Jason Witten, DAL
C Kyle Cook, CIN
G Chris Snee, NYG
G Kyle Kosier, DAL
OT Michael Roos, TEN
OT Jeff Backus, DET

DT Ndamukong Suh, DET
DT Tommy Kelly, OAK
DE Jared Allen, MIN
DE Jason Babin, TEN
OLB Chad Greenway, MIN
OLB Shaun Phillips, SD
ILB Stephen Tulloch, TEN
ILB Barrett Ruud, TB
CB Nnamdi Asomugha, OAK
CB Antoine Cason, SD
FS Michael Griffin, TEN
SS Donte Whitner, BUF

K Rob Bironas, TEN
P Kevin Huber, CIN
KR Marc Mariani, TEN

Honorable Mentions: Marcel Reece (FB, OAK); Antonio Gates (TE, SD); Justin Tuck (DE, NYG); Osi Umenyiora (DE, NYG); Justin Smith (DE, SF); Cameron Wake (OLB, MIA); DeMarcus Ware (OLB, DAL); Karlos Dansby (ILB, MIA)

Offensive Loser of the Year: Arian Foster, RB, HOU
Defensive Loser of the Year: Ndamukong Suh, DT, DET
Most Valuable Loser: Philip Rivers, QB, SD

Posted by Brad Oremland at 7:18 PM | Comments (0)

Can the NHL All-Star Game Survive?

The Winter Classic has proven to be an overwhelming success for the NHL, and the biggest eyeball magnet on its calendar outside of the Stanley Cup Final. And because of that, the All-Star Game — already regulated to something meaningless enough to skip during Olympic years — loses even more of its luster. Yes, that no-contact game of shinny among the league's wealthiest players seems to carry less weight year after year.

With that in mind, one really has to wonder what the purpose is for the All-Star Game. Most fans approach it with a mild level of interest, even though everyone seems to enjoy the skills competition. In general, fan voting is more about bragging rights on message boards, and it has little to do with the actual popularity of the event. Even the wrinkle thrown into this year's game — the so-called Fantasy Draft — seems like it will do little to benefit the quality of the game.

The old answer used to be that the All-Star Game was used as a schmooze fest for sponsors, but even that function has been transferred to the Winter Classic. It may be worth something to fledgling TV carrier Versus, but it's not going to make a dent in NBC's ratings; hence, why the whole thing was relegated to cable in the first place.

So what do you do with the All-Star Game? These types of festivities used to carry more mystique among fans back when you rarely got to see players from other teams and conferences. But now, between online highlights, Center Ice packages, local cable broadcasts, Versus games, and the additional games that FOX Sports and Comcast SportsNet channels pick up, hockey fans have plenty of ways to see their favorite players. The novelty simply isn't there anymore. Major league sports have faced this dilemma for a while now, with baseball tinkering the All-Star Game to assign value to the outcome.

With the big outdoor game coming roughly at the halfway point in the season, does it make sense to tack the all-star festivities on to the heels of the Winter Classic? Here's the thinking ... we can have the WInter Classic as a regular season game on whatever day of the week that New Year's Day falls upon, the all-star combination of a skills competition and shinny game could still take place a day or two later, with the preference to be a shoehorned Friday-Saturday event.

What benefit does this have? For one, it essentially creates a combined week of hype and buzz instead of the separate events where the Winter Classic clearly is the prettier sister. By opening the game up to a stadium capacity, the casual fan can now purchase a ticket (the current incarnation has attendees comprised of season ticket holders and sponsors). The visuals of having the league's best and brightest in the great outdoors are a great marketing ploy. And the pace of the All-Star Game opens itself to the wide outdoor camera shots that currently can't keep up with the action of a real game.

The downside of this is that the All-Star Game — currently used as an award for new buildings — may have limited locations to pick from. For fans, missing out on the actual game may not be a big deal but the annual fan convention that goes on through all-star weekend is a hockey lover's paradise.

It's one of the few ways to keep the event while maximizing the uniqueness that comes with Winter Classic venues; also, it acknowledges its place as secondary on the NHL event calendar. It works out for everyone without devaluing the Winter Classic.

Of course, this can all be adjusted based on the NHL's willingness to test unconventional markets. The other idea is to do away with the All-Star Game completely, but taking the Winter Classic and extending the built facility's usage to an entire week seems to be the proverbial two birds with one stone.

Posted by Mike Chen at 11:17 AM | Comments (0)

January 7, 2011

Sports Central's 2010 NFL All-Pro Team

With the 2010 regular season over, it's time to honor this season's most outstanding players. This column exists to explain the reasons I chose certain players, or didn't take others, and to give recognition to those who just missed the list. If all you care about is who made the team, skip to the end and you'll find a list.

This year, we once again have 13 players on offense and 13 on defense. Fullbacks have been gradually phased out of the base offense, so last year we didn't name one. I decided that was silly, so FBs are back, but we still named three WRs and two TEs. On defense, we list three cornerbacks (everyone needs a good nickel back) and two each of defensive tackles and inside linebackers (accommodating both the 3-4 and 4-3).

Our choices are listed in order, so you'll know which receiver is third, which tight end is second, and so on.

Quarterback: Tom Brady (NE)
Last Year: Drew Brees (NO)

We're lucky. As fans, we're in the midst of a golden age for QB play. It's happened before: in the '60s, with seven Hall of Famers in their primes, and again in the '90s, with Steve Young, Brett Favre, John Elway, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, Jim Kelly, Troy Aikman, and Randall Cunningham.

This season, Brady is a superb choice for all-pro QB, and I'll elaborate on that in a moment. But if Brady had blown out his knee again, or retired before the season to raise babies or become mayor of Boston or something, we could go with Michael Vick (PHI) or Aaron Rodgers (GB) and still have a brilliant, deserving all-pro. We could go with Peyton Manning (IND) or Philip Rivers (SD). If we were desperate — which we're not — we could even select Drew Brees (NO) or Matt Ryan (ATL) or Matt Schaub (HOU) or Josh Freeman (TB), all of whom had great seasons. Worse QBs than that have won all-pro honors. It's a privilege to watch so many great quarterbacks.

That said, Brady stood out this year. His +32 TD/INT differential is the third-best in history, behind himself (+42) in 2007 and Peyton Manning (+39) in '04. Thirty-two more touchdowns than interceptions. It's amazing. Joe Montana never threw 32 touchdowns in a season, forget the INTs. To the extent any controversy exists in this selection, it's that some people feel Vick is the more deserving player.

Q: In what areas is Vick better than Brady?
A: Running.

Q: In what areas is Brady better than Vick?
A: Everything else.

Running Back: Arian Foster (HOU)
Last Year: Chris Johnson (TEN)

Which running back do you want?

A: 1,341 rush yards, 5.63 average, 268 rec yards, 13 TDs, 4 fmbl
B: 1,760 rush yards, 4.85 average, 125 rec yards, 10 TDs, 9 fmbl
C: 1,383 rush yards, 4.40 average, 436 rec yards, 18 TDs, 7 fmbl
D: 1,298 rush yards, 4.59 average, 341 rec yards, 13 TDs, 1 fmbl
E: 1,407 rush yards, 4.89 average, 631 rec yards, 12 TDs, 5 fmbl
F: 1,382 rush yards, 5.32 average, 765 rec yards, 21 TDs, 3 fmbl
G: 1,616 rush yards, 4.94 average, 604 rec yards, 18 TDs, 3 fmbl

I think you'd obviously take F or G. Seasons A-D are every year of Adrian Peterson's career. Season E is Thurman Thomas the year he was named league MVP. Season F is Marshall Faulk's 2001, when the Rams went 14-2. Season G is Arian Foster in 2010.

Adrian Peterson is a phenomenal running back, probably a Hall of Famer one day. Foster was better this year than Peterson has ever been. Foster was better than Thurman Thomas in his prime. And Foster was damn near a match for Marshall Faulk, depending on what you value. I have raved this year about Jamaal Charles (KC), who finished second only to Foster in rushing yards (1,467) and yards from scrimmage (1,935), and nearly broke Jim Brown's single-season record for average per carry (6.40 for Brown, 6.38 for Charles). He had a great season. But Foster was better. His running style reminds me a little of Terrell Davis, but Foster is a better receiver.

Fullback: Marcel Reece (OAK)
Last Year: N/A

The Pro Bowl FBs, Vonta Leach (HOU) and Ovie Mughelli (ATL), are both fine choices. Leach had a hell of a season, and I'm glad he's being recognized for it, but Reece is the total package as a fullback. A 6'3", 240-lb. wide receiver at the University of Washington, he came into the league as an undrafted free agent. Originally expected to play tight end, this year Reece won the Raiders' starting fullback job and was the lead blocker for Darren McFadden's breakout season.

He carried 28 times for 118 yards (4.2 average) and a touchdown, making him one of the top rushers at his position, top of the list depending on how you categorize John Kuhn (GB) and a couple of guys who are not really fullbacks. As a receiver, too, Reece led all fullbacks: 25 receptions, 333 yards, 3 TDs. He's one of the best ball-carriers at his position, almost certainly the best receiver, and a successful lead blocker. Gets my vote.

Wide Receiver: Roddy White (ATL), Brandon Lloyd (DEN), Andre Johnson (HOU)
Last Year: Andre Johnson (HOU), Reggie Wayne (IND), Wes Welker (NE)

White, whom I also chose in 2008, led the league in catches (115) and first downs (73), with the second-most receiving yards (1,389), and tied for seventh in TD receptions (10). He and Johnson and maybe Reggie Wayne (IND) are the most reliably productive receivers in the league, with no obvious weaknesses in their games.

Lloyd led the NFL in receiving yards (1,448) and tied for second in first downs (72). He was also incredibly explosive, second only to Mike Wallace (PIT) in receptions of 20+ and 40+. Lloyd's productivity didn't waver even with the quarterback change from Kyle Orton to Tim Tebow. I think Comeback Player of the Year is a stupid award, but if I chose one, this year I would probably go with Lloyd. From 2006-09, his combined totals were 59 rec, 1,060 yards, and 2 TDs. He beat all of those four-year totals in 2010. Lloyd looked like an emerging star in 2005, then totally disappeared for four years. He's still young (29), and once again looks to have a bright future.

Statistically, the top three are obvious. Reggie Wayne (IND) had the second-most catches and first downs, with the third-most yards. I love Reggie Wayne. I've named him all-pro three times, even gave him an honorable mention on my NFL All-Decade Team of the '00s. But his production this year was largely the product of playing on a team that led the league in pass attempts and lost all of its other starting receivers to injury.

Dwayne Bowe (KC), Greg Jennings (GB), and Calvin Johnson (DET) led the league in receiving touchdowns. Jennings and Bowe came on strong in the second half of the season, and Johnson, with consistent quarterback play, might just break a bunch of records. He's a really special player. But Andre Johnson, more than anyone except Roddy White, always seemed to make plays. He gets open, he's got great hands, and he's a threat with the ball. This is the third straight season I've chosen him.

Most 100-yard receiving games in 2010: Wallace (7), Andre Johnson and Lloyd (6), Miles Austin, Bowe, Jennings, and White (5).

Tight End: Jason Witten (DAL), Antonio Gates (SD)
Last Year: Antonio Gates (SD), Vernon Davis (SF)

How many games can a player miss and still be an all-pro? It depends how many Antonio Gates misses. This year, that was six. Six games, that's more than a third of the season. But while he was in there, Gates was twice as good as any other tight end in the league. Despite missing almost half the season, he still placed fourth among TEs in yardage, second only to Witten in first downs, tied for first in TDs, and the only tight end in the league with three 100-yard receiving games. Other than maybe Kellen Winslow in the early '80s, Gates over the past few seasons is probably the highest-impact player in the history of the position.

Witten led all tight ends in receptions (94) and yards (1,002), and finished one back of the league lead in touchdowns (9). If Gates had missed another game, or not been quite so awesome, the second tight end would be Vernon Davis (SF) or Marcedes Lewis (JAC). Both are good blockers, Lewis actually a "blocking tight end" — he's 6'6", 275 — who has emerged as the Jaguars' go-to receiver, with 10 TDs this season. With San Francisco's totally impotent WR corps, Davis faces unique attention from defenses, but he finished second to Witten in receiving yards (914) and other than Gates, was the most explosive player at the position.

Center: Jeff Saturday (IND)
Last Year: Nick Mangold (NYJ)

Who impressed me the most this year? Kyle Cook (CIN). But no one else seems to think he's special, and Carson Palmer calls LT Andrew Whitworth the best offensive lineman on the team, so maybe I've just caught him on good days. When I've seen Cook, though, he's been pushing Haloti Ngata around, solid in pass protection, getting to the second level.

And how trustworthy is reputation? More on this in the offensive tackle section, but I think most offensive line awards are based more on reputation than performance, and that reputation never really changes after a player's rookie season. The Pro Bowl voters this year chose Shaun O'Hara in the NFC. O'Hara played six games this season. He makes Antonio Gates look like an iron man. I prefer my own two eyes, or at least stats to help me sort things out, but I just don't know enough about Cook's season to choose him with confidence.

Where does that leave us? Saturday, who is still a good blocker, but gets the nod more for his coordination of the Colts' blocking schemes than his battles against opposing defenders. Besides, I've left him off before when he might have been deserving. It's not a make-up call so much as a tie-breaker.

Guard: Josh Sitton (GB), Carl Nicks (NO)
Last Year: Logan Mankins (NE), Jahri Evans (NO)

Four players stood out: Sitton, Nicks, Chris Snee (NYG), and Logan Mankins (NE). Snee just missed my list, partly because his play was uneven at times. Mankins is as good as any of them, but he held out and only played nine games. In those games, the Patriots averaged 34.8 points per game, a 5.5-point improvement from the first seven games.

Nicks and Jahri Evans (NO) are the only guard tandem in the NFL that actually earns regular mention from the announcers. They deserve it. I liked Nicks a little better this year, particularly in pass protection. Snee had a couple off-games, but at his best, is as good as anyone. If you have any appreciation for line play whatever, Sitton is fun to watch. He's just exceptional. Very quick, takes great angles. He's not the strongest lineman in the league, but he uses his speed to put himself in positions where he'll win the battle anyway.

Offensive Tackle: Jason Peters (PHI), Charlie Johnson (IND)
Last Year: Michael Roos (TEN), Max Starks (PIT)

Bear with me for a second. Who are the AFC Pro Bowlers at this position? The starters are Jake Long (MIA) and Joe Thomas (CLE). Left tackle is generally acknowledged as the most important position on the offensive line, and we're supposed to believe the two best LTs in the AFC play for the two worst offenses? The Browns rank last in the AFC in scoring; the Dolphins are second-to-last. D'Brickashaw Ferguson (NYJ), selected as a backup, is probably the third-best lineman on his own team, which also has a pretty unimpressive offense. All of those guys were college standouts and top-10 draft picks, and now they're going to Hawaii based more on reputation than performance. Jordan Gross (CAR) is a starter in the NFC, and he played on the worst offense in the league, one of the worst in memory.

Hall of Fame voters, most of whom don't understand the nuances of line play, often use Pro Bowl selections to help guide their votes at these positions. That has to stop. The selections are almost totally unreliable.

That said, there are no dominant offensive tackles in the game right now, and there's no one I'm crazy about at this position. Long and Thomas and Ferguson and Gross, I believe, are all bad picks, but not crazy picks. Peters is not as dominant as he was in Buffalo, and Johnson is more solid than elite. Jeff Backus (DET) had a nice season, Michael Roos (TEN) played at a very high level sometimes, and the Patriots' bookends, Matt Light (NE) and Sebastian Vollmer (NE), are certainly part of that team's success.

Defensive Tackle: Ndamukong Suh (DET), B.J. Raji (GB)
Last Year: Darnell Dockett (ARI), Jay Ratliff (DAL)

I didn't want to choose Suh. I've already railed against high draft picks whose reputations earn them more than their play. Suh was one of the most celebrated defense players in NCAA history and the second pick in the 2010 draft. We expected great things from him, we've been looking for an excuse to anoint him, just like with Sam Bradford on offense. But Suh has backed up the hype. He closed out his rookie year with 66 tackles, 10 sacks, 3 pass deflections, an interception, a forced fumble, and a touchdown on a fumble return. That's a phenomenal season. The last DT with 10 sacks in a season was Warren Sapp.

The youth movement isn't intentional, but my interior linemen this year are a rookie, Suh, and a sophomore, the 24-year-old Raji. Like Suh, Raji has good numbers, including 6.5 sacks, a terrific number for a nose tackle. More than that, though, he's incredibly disruptive. It's a quality shared by Vince Wilfork (NE). His only two sacks this season came in the finale, but you can't judge a DT by lack of numbers. Wilfork is an impact player, probably the most important person on New England's defense.

Haloti Ngata (BAL) and Wilfork have been at or near the top for years, and you wouldn't go wrong with either of them. But two other guys caught my attention this season. One was Jonathan Babineaux (ATL), who commanded attention from opposing linemen, created opportunities for his teammates, a huge presence on the league's 5th-best scoring defense. Everyone talks about Richard Seymour (OAK), but when I watched the Raiders, Tommy Kelly (OAK) was the guy who struck me. Kelly made more solo tackles, more assists, and more sacks than Seymour. I'm sure Seymour, a three-time Super Bowl champion and probably a future HOFer, brings some qualities to the team that don't show up on a stat sheet and aren't obvious during the game, but Kelly had more impact on the field. Other than Suh, Kelly had the most sacks (7) of any interior lineman this season.

Top 10 of '10: Suh, Raji, Wilfork, Ngata, Babineaux, Kelly, Brett Keisel (PIT), Fred Robbins (STL), Kevin Williams (MIN), Sione Pouha (NYJ).

The league lists both Wilfork and Ngata as defensive ends — even though both regularly line up at nose tackle — so let's just be clear that Defensive Tackle really means Interior Defensive Line.

Defensive End: Julius Peppers (CHI), Jared Allen (MIN)
Last Year: Jared Allen (MIN), Julius Peppers (CAR)

In 2009, the Bears had a below-average defense, ranked 21st in points allowed. This season, the defense was top-10, actually fourth in points allowed. Part of that is the return of Brian Urlacher, some of it may be general improvement, and a lot of it is Peppers. He got 8 sacks, which is good but not exceptional. However, Peppers also deflected 9 passes, with 2 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles, and he created opportunities for Israel Idonije (CHI), who had a breakout season (8 sacks, 3 FF). Allen got off to a slow start this season, but he finished with 11 sacks, 6 pass deflections, 2 interceptions, and a touchdown. He's also one of the best DEs in the league at playing the run, maybe the best.

John Abraham (ATL) led all defensive linemen in sacks — the leaders are all OLBs these days — but Jason Babin (TEN), just a half sack behind (12.5), impressed me even more, and nearly made the cut ahead of Allen. Beyond Peppers, Allen, Babin, and Abraham, the defensive ends who stood out this season were Justin Tuck (NYG), Osi Umenyiora (NYG), Will Smith (NO), and the constant duo of Robert Mathis (IND) and Dwight Freeney (IND).

Tuck and Umenyiora recorded 11.5 sacks each, combining for 16 forced fumbles and 6 recoveries. Umenyiora occasionally seems to explode, spends a game just absolutely destroying the guy lined up across from him. Other weeks, though, he just disappears. I like Tuck, who's a little more consistent, a bit better. You could sub Tuck or Babin for Allen and I'd have no problem with that.

The best 3-4 defensive ends are Justin Smith (SF, 8.5 sacks), Cullen Jenkins (GB, 7 sacks), Shaun Ellis (NYJ, 4.5 sacks), and Cory Redding (BAL, 5 passes deflected) — plus Ngata, Wilfork, and Keisel if you count them as DEs.

Outside Linebacker: James Harrison (PIT), Clay Matthews III (GB)
Last Year: Brian Cushing (HOU), Elvis Dumervil (DEN)

There are two types of outside linebacker: 3-4 OLBs, whose primary responsibility is rushing the passer, and 4-3 OLBs with a wider set of responsibilities. The best of the latter are Lance Briggs (CHI) and Chad Greenway (MIN). Briggs, of course, does everything. He was second on the Bears in tackles (behind Brian Urlacher), with 2 interceptions, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, a fumble recovery, and 7 passes defensed. Greenway, criminally underrated, led all OLBs in solo tackles and assists on tackles. He is always around the ball.

As great as Briggs and Greenway are, the pass rushers are impact players, and this year, I thought they came out ahead. Harrison had 100 tackles (70 solo), with 10.5 sacks, 6 forced fumbles, 5 pass deflections, and 2 interceptions. Statistically, that's comparable to his 2008 Defensive Player of the Year campaign. Matthews spent most of the season as front-runner for DPOY. What happened? Let's break the season into thirds. Since Matthews missed a game, we don't even have to round off. In his first five games, Matthews tallied 8.5 sacks, a sensational total. In the next five, 3 sacks, which is still quite good. It was also during this period that he returned an interception 62 yards for a touchdown. In the final third of the season, 2 sacks. Some of that is opponents adjusting their gameplans to shut him down, but Matthews slowed down a lot as the season went on.

I have trouble distinguishing between the play of Harrison and his teammate LaMarr Woodley (PIT). People talk about Harrison as a DPOY candidate, and certainly his numbers are better than Woodley's — he has twice as many tackles and one more sack — but Woodley looked as good or better when I watched the Steelers this season. Clearly, they're both great players. Terrell Suggs (BAL) rebounded this season after a little bit of a down year in 2009.

Shaun Phillips (SD) has filled Shawne Merriman's role with surprisingly little fanfare, racking up 11 sacks and 8 passes defensed in the lonely AFC West. The league leaders in sacks, DeMarcus Ware (DAL), Tamba Hali (KC), and Cameron Wake (MIA), obviously had impressive seasons, but I don't see them at the very top. Ware and Wake disappeared for long stretches, while Hali faced extremely weak opposition, the easiest schedule in the AFC. He keeps getting better, though, every season.

Inside Linebacker: Jerod Mayo (NE), Jonathan Vilma (NO)
Last Year: Patrick Willis (SF), Jon Beason (CAR)

Lightning-quick Mayo led the NFL in tackles, with 2 sacks and 3 fumble recoveries. Vilma's stats don't reflect the impact he has on the playing field. He's a playmaker, and one of those guys who always seems to make a play when you need one. Brian Urlacher's (CHI) return from injury, along with the acquisition of Peppers, returned the Bears' defense to elite status.

Derrick Johnson (KC) dropped off the radar after a promising rookie season, but this year he was back in a big way, with 95 solo tackles, 4 forced fumbles, 15 passes defensed, and an interception return for a touchdown. Lawrence Timmons (PIT) has surpassed James Farrior as the outstanding tackler on the league's best defense, and Stephen Tulloch (TEN), who trailed only Mayo in tackles, is a comer. Each of the last three seasons, he's been among the better interior linebackers in the league.

Cornerback: Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Charles Woodson (GB), Brent Grimes (ATL)
Last Year: Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Charles Woodson (GB), Sheldon Brown (PHI)

People have stopped throwing at Revis. He didn't even have an interception this year. He's a true shutdown corner. Woodson, as I wrote earlier this year, has started playing a little more like a free safety, freelancing and going to the ball. Whatever he's doing, he's making plays. He led the Packers in solo tackles, with 2 sacks, 2 interceptions (1 returned for a TD), and 5 forced fumbles.

The nickel spot is what gave me trouble this year. Asante Samuel (PHI) is as good as anyone this side of Revis, but he missed too much time. Rookies Devin McCourty (NE) and Joe Haden (CLE) combined for 13 INTs, but they're still learning the pro game. There's a case to be made for Nnamdi Asomugha (OAK). Certainly no one throws at him much. But he just doesn't make very many plays. Asomugha finished the season with 19 tackles, including assists. You should get that many just playing the run. Revis missed three games, and he had 32 tackles. It's great he can shut down his man, but there are guys who can do that and contribute in other ways.

Grimes is one of them. Coming off a promising 2009, he took the next step this year, leading the NFL in passes defensed (28) and ranking among the league leaders in INTs (5), with 76 solo tackles. Sometimes CBs have impressive stats because they get picked on, so they're always around the ball. Others make plays on the ball anyway. Grimes is one of the latter.

Other corners worth mentioning: Antoine Cason (SD), Ike Taylor (PIT), Terrell Thomas (NYG), Charles Tillman (CHI).

Free Safety: Ed Reed (BAL)
Last Year: Darren Sharper (NO)

I have to issue a mea culpa. In my Pro Bowl column a month ago, I wrote, "Please don't vote for Ed Reed (BAL). He's missed half the season." Well, that was before he added 4 interceptions, returned for 100 yards, in the final two weeks of the season. Even in only 10 games, he stood head and shoulders above the rest of the league, actually led the NFL in interceptions. Reed is 32 now. It is my belief that he will retire as the greatest defensive back in the history of football.

If you really feel strongly that an all-pro should play at least, say, 2/3 of the season, Nick Collins (GB) has emerged as perpetually the second-best FS in the league. He had 4 interceptions, which is half as many as Reed, but really not bad compared to anyone else. Michael Griffin (TEN) also intercepted 4 passes, adding 2 forced fumbles, 2 recoveries, and over 100 tackles. Malcolm Jenkins (NO), switched from cornerback, was instrumental in the Saints' success this season. New Orleans has quietly emerged as a defensive powerhouse.

Pat Chung (NE) is a young player who's still a bit uneven, but he made big plays on defense and special teams, even apart from his huge Monday night performance against Miami. Michael Huff (OAK) was the only player in the league, at any position, with at least 3 sacks and 3 interceptions. Chris Harris (CHI) was a turnover machine, with 5 picks and 2 fumble recoveries. Antoine Bethea (IND) and Eric Weddle (SD) are reliably above average, every season.

Strong Safety: Troy Polamalu (PIT)
Last Year: Adrian Wilson (ARI)

An unparalleled playmaker at his position, Polamalu intercepted 7 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. As great as Brett Keisel and James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons and Ike Taylor are, Troy is the one indispensable piece of the Pittsburgh defense. When he's healthy there's really nowhere else to go at this position.

Other good players ... Quintin Mikell (PHI) is a playmaker, actually a little like Polamalu. Donte Whitner (BUF) was credited with 140 tackles. Rookie Eric Berry (KC) had 77 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and 4 interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. Roman Harper (NO) made a bunch of tackles, with 3 sacks and 6 forced fumbles.

Kicker: Billy Cundiff (BAL)
Last Year: Sebastian Janikowski (OAK)

One of the things I value most in a kicker is ability on long field goals. If a team can drive to the edge of field goal range and feel confident that it can win on a 55-yard kick, that's the sort of asset that turns games. Cundiff's long this season was 49, only the second time I've ever chosen a kicker who didn't make anything from beyond 50 yards. He did make field goals of 49, 49, 48, and 47 yards, and he only missed three kicks all season. It's also worth mentioning that Baltimore is not the easiest place in the NFL to kick.

Of course, the real reason I chose Cundiff was his kickoffs. More than half of them went for touchbacks. His 40 TBs were 11 more than second-place Sebastian Janikowski (OAK), and his 71.1 kickoff average was the best in the league by more than 3 yards, better than league average by 7 yards. Cundiff kicked off 79 times. That's 545 yards he saved the Ravens on kickoffs, compared to an average team. 545 yards. That's worth a couple of 50-yard field goals.

My other finalists were Rob Bironas (TEN), who seems to be a finalist every year, probably the best kicker of the last five seasons, and Neil Rackers (HOU).

Punter: Steve Weatherford (NYJ)
Last Year: Ben Graham (ARI)

Normally, evaluating punters is the most time-consuming part of assembling this team. Weatherford made it easy this year. As soon as I finished my evaluation of him, I closed up shop. No one was going to catch him. Weatherford's 38.1 net average is 15th in the NFL, basically just average. But Weatherford plays for a good team, the 11-5 Jets, so he had a lot of those punts from the opponent's 40-yard line, where a 30-yard punt is good and 35 is downright sensational. Punters on good teams are at a statistical disadvantage. Of the 14 punters ahead of Weatherford, only five play for teams at or above .500. And the swirling winds in his home stadium are not conducive to good punting averages.

Still, it's not net average where Weatherford distinguished himself. This season, he only kicked four touchbacks. But he pinned opponents at the 1-yard line twice. Also the 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, and 9. Altogether that's 21 times he pinned the other team inside its own 10, versus only 4 TBs, a phenomenal 5.25-to-1 ratio. No one else was better at stifling opponents' field position and pinning them deep. If you include inside the 20, he's at 42, most in the league.

Weatherford was also the best in the league at avoiding returns, with 11 punts out of bounds, 15 downed by his coverage team, and a league-leading 27 fair catches. Weatherford actually had as many fair catches as returns. In fact, 62.8% of his kicks had no return (or TB) at all. That's also the best mark in the league, easily.

Distance is overrated, but Weatherford's distance was decent. His hang time and directional kicking to avoid returns and touchbacks were unparalleled.

Just as a point of reference, Mat McBriar (DAL) led the league in net average this season. McBriar played for a bad (6-10) team, in a stadium with a roof. Weatherford played for a good (11-5) team, in a cold, windy stadium. McBriar forced 7 fair catches, Weatherford 27. McBriar had one punt blocked, Weatherford none. McBriar had 22 punts down inside the 20, Weatherford 42. McBriar had 8 touchbacks, Weatherford 4.

McBriar kicked farther because he played for Dallas, and Weatherford played for the Jets. My guy was twice as good at avoiding returns and four times better at pinning opponents deep. McBriar is a line drive kicker, Weatherford gets hang time or kicks out of bounds. Easy choice, isn't it? My other finalists, none of whom I finished a work-up on, were Kevin Huber (CIN), Sam Koch (BAL), Sav Rocca (PHI), and Jon Ryan (SEA).

Kick Returner: Devin Hester (CHI)
Last Year: Joshua Cribbs (CLE)

Four finalists. Brad Smith (NYJ) was the best on kickoffs (28.6 avg, 2 TDs, no fumbles), but he didn't return punts. Marc Mariani (TEN) was one of two players to return both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns, with great averages (25.5 KR and 12.2 PR).

Ultimately, the choice came down to Leon Washington (SEA) and Hester. Washington had 57 kickoff returns for 1,461 yards (25.6 avg) and 3 TDs. He also returned 22 punts for 249 yards (11.3 avg). Hester posted a ridiculous 35.6 KR average, but on only 12 returns. He did put in a full season on punt returns: 33 for 564 (17.1) and 3 TDs. He fair caught very few punts — which lowers your average — and he didn't fumble all season.

Washington's extra returns don't make up for Hester's huge advantage in average. Well, they do on KRs. But Hester's so far ahead as a punt returner, he's clearly the top pick. Devin Hester was not an elite returner in 2008 or 2009. He was the best in the league this season.

Special Teamer: N/A
Last Year: N/A

I don't name a special teams ace, but let's throw out an honor roll — not necessarily all-inclusive — of the best guys I've seen this season: Pat Chung (NE), Corey Graham (CHI), Keyaron Fox (PIT), Kassim Osgood (JAC).

Six players repeat from my 2009 all-pro team: Andre Johnson, Antonio Gates, Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, Darrelle Revis, and Charles Woodson.

Offensive Player of the Year: Tom Brady (NE)
Last Year: Chris Johnson (TEN)

Sorry, Arian Foster.

Defensive Player of the Year: Ndamukong Suh (DET)
Last Year: Darrelle Revis (NYJ)

Detroit's ranks for yards allowed and points allowed — 2007: 32nd and 32nd, 2008: 32nd and 32nd, 2009: 32nd and 32nd, 2010: 21st and 19th. Fine, they're still not elite. Suh almost single-handedly turned this from one of the worst defenses in history into a unit that's pretty close to average. Believe the hype.

Most Valuable Player: Tom Brady (NE)
Last Year: Drew Brees (NO)

My top 12 ballot:

1) Tom Brady, QB, NE
2) Philip Rivers, QB, SD
3) Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
4) Peyton Manning, QB, IND
5) Michael Vick, QB, PHI
6) Arian Foster, RB, HOU
7) Ndamukong Suh, DT, DET
8) Josh Freeman, QB, TB
9) Julius Peppers, DE, CHI
10) Clay Matthews, LB, GB
11) Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
12) Darrelle Revis, CB, NYJ

Why isn't Vick second? Wait, we'll come back to that. Why is Philip Rivers second? I know the Chargers missed the playoffs, but they finished 9-7. What would that record have been with an average QB, or a backup? Rivers led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt, threw 30 touchdown passes. Rivers did this with a receiving corps that split its time mostly between the practice squad and the hospital, with 13 players getting double-digit receptions. Antonio Gates got hurt. Malcom Floyd got hurt. So did Legedu Naanee and starting RB Ryan Mathews. Vincent Jackson missed most of the season. The Chargers led the NFL in yards per game, and Rivers was all they had. His 101.8 passer rating is second only to Brady's.

Aaron Rodgers, if he'd been healthy all year, might have challenged Brady for the top of the ballot. He's a really impressive player. Most analysts seem to believe this was a down year for Peyton Manning. He finished second in passing yards, tied for second in touchdown passes, top-10 in passer rating, by far the best sack percentage in the league. This was a better year than his 2008 MVP season.

Manning: 450/679, 4,700 yards, 33 TD, 17 INT, 91.9 passer rating
Vick: 233/372, 3,018 yards, 21 TD, 6 INT, 100.2 passer rating

Manning has 1,700 more yards and 12 more TDs. Yeah, he has more interceptions. Those picks aren't worth 1,700 yards. They aren't worth a third of that. But wait! Vick is a good rusher, you have to count that. But wait! Manning is the best in the league at avoiding sacks, and Vick is one of the worst. You have to count that, too. Net yardage (including passing, sacks, and rushing), with total TDs (passing + rushing) and total turnovers (interceptions and lost fumbles):

Manning: 4,627 yards, 33 TD, 18 turnovers
Vick: 3,484 yards, 30 TD, 9 turnovers

Who do you want? Vick missed a quarter of the season. He was more efficient, but it's preposterous to suggest that he was more valuable in 11 games than Manning was in 16. If Vick had played the whole season, he'd probably be ahead of everyone but Brady.

The Eagles went 10-6 this season with Vick at QB. They went 11-5 last season with Donovan McNabb at QB. If Vick was really so valuable, shouldn't the team have gotten better instead of worse?

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Maurkice Pouncey (PIT)
Last Year: Percy Harvin (MIN)

Sam Bradford (STL) is obviously going to win. He will be the least deserving winner in the history of the award — no exaggeration. Bradford wilted in the most important game of the season, and he wasn't exactly lighting it up before that, either. His 76.5 passer rating ranked 25th in the NFL, while the Rams had the 26th-ranked offense in the league. How is that impressive? Bradford's statistics look more like the rookie season of Tim Couch than Matt Ryan.

Bradford was more or less competent, and that's a major accomplishment for a rookie QB, but I'm not grading on a curve. Pouncey made the Pro Bowl, as did KRs Marc Mariani (TEN) and Eric Weems (ATL), the only players to return both a kickoff and a punt for TDs in 2010. LeGarrette Blount (TB) rushed for 1,000 yards with a 5.0 average. Mike Williams (TB) and Rob Gronkowski (NE) scored double-digit receiving touchdowns. Jacoby Ford (OAK) scored multiple rushing, receiving, and returning TDs, 7 altogether. I'd rank all of them ahead of Bradford, who was totally undistinguished except that he started every game and threw a lot. He didn't have a great season. He didn't even have a good season. He played well enough not to get benched.

Pouncey is a good center, but he's a rookie, and he struggled at times. I would take the fifth-best offensive rookie of 2008 over anyone from the last two seasons. That year included Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, Ryan Clady, and Jake Long. Related: The Best NFL Rookie Class Ever.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Ndamukong Suh (DET)
Last Year: Brian Cushing (HOU)

Devin McCourty (NE), Joe Haden (CLE), and Eric Berry (KC) all had nice seasons. Suh may be the best rookie defender since Lawrence Taylor.

Coach of the Year: Bill Belichick (NE)
Last Year: Norv Turner (SD)

Plenty of head coaches did a nice job this year, but four stood out in my mind: Belichick, Mike Smith (ATL), Todd Haley (KC), and Tom Cable (OAK). Haley has done a fantastic job of bringing his young team along, and what Cable has accomplished working for Al Davis is nothing short of remarkable. He's not getting enough credit. Smith just seems to naturally be a low-profile kind of guy, and his team takes after him. They go out and get the job done, no fuss. There's no drama, and they never seem to feel the pressure, because they're always prepared. Huge credit to the coaching staff. That's something else Smith deserves credit for: he has assembled a terrific staff.

I am not prepared, at this point in time, to declare Bill Belichick the greatest coach in history. But he just keeps climbing the list, no matter how many of his assistants leave, no matter how many irreplaceable players he loses, he just plugs in a Wes Welker or Devin McCourty or Danny Woodhead and the train rolls on. The 2010 Patriots are young at most positions, especially on defense. They've been improving all season, don't let anything throw them off track. This season reminds me of the 2003 Pats. Belichick was my COY that year, too.

Assistant Coach of the Year: Dom Capers (GB)
Last Year: Dom Capers (GB)

Definitely not Steve Crosby, the Chargers' special teams coach. And definitely not Mike Martz, Chicago's new offensive coordinator. The Bears made the playoffs because the defense returned to form, not because of their offense — below average in every major category.

One of the usual suspects, defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau (PIT), did another magnificent job. The year-to-year consistency of Pittsburgh's defensive excellence is remarkable, almost unique. Both of Kansas City's coordinators, Charlie Weis (offense) and Romeo Crennel (defense), deserve recognition this year. But my choice, for the second year in a row, is Capers. The Packers' defense was rocked by injuries this year. Johnny Jolly, suspended for the season. Atari Bigby on PUP, Nick Barnett to IR, on and on. Green Bay's defense remained the best in the NFC, getting the most out of young players and veterans, starters and subs. Fantastic job.

2010 All-Pro Team

QB Tom Brady, NE
RB Arian Foster, HOU
FB Marcel Reece, OAK
WR Roddy White, ATL
WR Brandon Lloyd, DEN
WR Andre Johnson, HOU
TE Jason Witten, DAL
TE Antonio Gates, SD
C Jeff Saturday, IND
G Josh Sitton, GB
G Carl Nicks, NO
OT Jason Peters, PHI
OT Charlie Johnson, IND

DT Ndamukong Suh, DET
DT B.J. Raji, GB
DE Julius Peppers, CHI
DE Jared Allen, MIN
OLB James Harrison, PIT
OLB Clay Matthews III, GB
ILB Jerod Mayo, NE
ILB Jonathan Vilma, NO
CB Darrelle Revis, NYJ
CB Charles Woodson, GB
CB Brent Grimes, ATL
FS Ed Reed, BAL
SS Troy Polamalu, PIT

K Billy Cundiff, BAL
P Steve Weatherford, NYJ
KR Devin Hester, CHI

Off POY — Tom Brady, NE
Def POY — Ndamukong Suh, DET
MVP — Tom Brady, NE
Off Rookie — Maurkice Pouncey, PIT
Def Rookie — Ndamukong Suh, DET
Coach — Bill Belichick, NE
Assistant — Dom Capers, GB

Posted by Brad Oremland at 7:28 PM | Comments (0)

Sports Q&A: NCAA Buys What Terrelle Pryor's Selling

Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor and four teammates have been sanctioned by the NCAA for selling personal memorabilia and receiving improper benefits from a Columbus tattoo parlor owner. The five must sit out the first five games of 2011, but were allowed to play in the Sugar Bowl on January 4th. Is this just another example of a hypocritical NCAA ruling, and does the punishment fit the crime?

Leave it to the NCAA to issue a ruling that benefits them yet, in their eyes, preserves and protects the sanctity of the game. But here's what is hypocritical of their ruling: the NCAA keeps the star power of the Sugar Bowl intact, thus preserving their money-making endeavor, yet they've ordered Pryor and his teammates to repay the money they made from selling their personal belongings. The NCAA can have its cake, and eat it, yet Ohio State players can't have a yard sale? The line has been drawn, through the dollar sign. If Woody Hayes were alive today, he'd punch someone. I'm just not sure if it would be the NCAA, or Ohio State student-athlete-peddlers.

While it's easy to question Pryor and company's contention that they didn't know the rules, it's safe to say Pryor and his teammates have done their homework elsewhere, most notably in economics class. Supply often dictates demand, and apparently there was a demand for chintzy Buckeye paraphernalia, and the Ohio State players just did their part to complete the equation. What makes more economic sense than the "buy low, sell high" axiom? The "get for free, sell high" axiom, which I believe was inked across Pryor's midriff at the fine tattoo establishment in question.

How often have you asked yourself, "I sure would like a Fiesta Bowl sportsmanship award to adorn my mantle?" If you're like me, probably never. But in a capitalist economy, I feel confident that should that need ever arise, I now know where to look. Does the fact that these items in question were all sports-related make a difference? Would there be any uproar at all if Pryor had sold, say, an English award from his freshmen year, or the coveted "Leisure Studies 101 Most-Improved" trophy, or a collection of old eight-track tapes? Probably not.

Pryor and his cohorts claim they didn't know their actions violated NCAA rules. They are clearly lying. In today's college athletics atmosphere, in which compliance is king, the "I didn't know" defense doesn't fly, unless it's bowl season. Football players should know that if they are doing something that benefits them, outside of winning games and making their university millions, then it's probably wrong by NCAA standards. Who gets a cut for every Terrelle Pryor jersey sold? Lots of people and organizations, but not Pryor himself. Ironically, the NCAA "bought" the "I don't know" defense, and came down with a soft, spongy fist, a hand that no doubt belongs to a creature with no backbone.

The NCAA cited the "unique opportunity" of playing in a bowl game in their reasoning for not suspending the players for the Sugar Bowl. The "unique opportunity" argument can be equated to the "I didn't know" defense, in that both are pure cop-outs. You know what else is a "unique opportunity?" The chance to sell useless memorabilia for cash, or getting a tattoo for an autograph. Those situations don't present themselves everyday, and are certainly "unique."

Football coaches extol the virtues of "teachable moments." The NCAA claims there weren't enough teachable moments at OSU in regards to compliance. Oh, but there were. A former Buckeye said players were repeatedly told not to sell items. It appears that at Ohio State, compliance seminars are led by an auctioneer. What's the NCAA's next ruling? That's players should be assigned tutors for compliance classes? This is the business of college football. Compliance should the most mandatory class on a player's schedule.

For Pryor, though, this is the ultimate teachable moment. Heed the warnings, Terrelle, lest the next time, the operable words may not be "in exchange for improper benefits," but "in exchange for your testimony."

Of course, this all leads to argument of whether or not to compensate student-athletes with something more than tuition, meals, room and board, tickets, and other amenities that amount to roughly $150,000 over four years, give or take $20,000 in under-the-table booster payments. Who on earth can live on that, and expect to have money left over for tattoos?

These athletes need a little extra to get them through the tough times, like when the child support payment is due. Athletes, absolutely, should be paid. But not in cash. They should be compensated with items that have a resale value, whether on the open market or the black market. Then a player should be free to squeeze as much cash as possible from a sucker for said items, on the condition the player doesn't boast about it on Twitter or Facebook. A Twitter or Facebook post about a questionable transaction should result in an immediate suspension, and the proceeds of the transaction should be donated to a scholarship fund for non-athletes, like kickers and punters.

Alas, as one of the conditions of their delayed punishment, all five players vowed to return for their senior years and not jump to the NFL, thereby avoiding the five-game suspension. That's interesting; usually, after you commit a violation, they tell you not to come back. Pryor and his teammates must love the spotlight, because next year, they'll be more "watched" than Ohio State games. As they say, you "get" what you "pay" for.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:32 AM | Comments (0)

January 6, 2011

This Joe Paterno Thing Has Gone on Long Enough

It's 2011 and Joe Paterno is still a Division I football coach of a major program. The man is 84-years-old and isn't even talking about retirement. He's certainly a legend and has deserved to go out on his own terms, but shouldn't those terms be defined by now? Is he literally going to coach until he dies?

In his postgame press conference after Penn State's bowl loss, Paterno said there hasn't been talk of naming a successor yet and while he only has one year left on his contract, I wouldn't be surprised to see him stick around even longer.

This whole "old guy coaching a football team" was funny a few years ago when he was sprinting to the bathroom during a game to avoid a sideline catastrophe, but now we're getting to the point where people honestly have to worry about him dying on the job.

When John McCain ran for president in 2008, people trying to be funny compared him to Skeletor and some voters were afraid to vote for him because they were afraid of him dying on the job. And he's 10 years younger than Joe Paterno.

This is a quote from one of the postgame stories after the Nittany Lions' loss:

"While he said there have been talks with his staff about what would take place in case something would happen to him, he said it's mainly meant to solidify job security so an assistant coach wouldn't be left without a position."

That sounds awfully ominous. It also makes it sound like he's discussed what should happen in case he literally has a heart attack in a recruit's living room. Maybe I'm reading too much into the phrase "if something would happen to him," but that sounds like something a war-bound marine says before giving the keys to his prized Mustang to his younger brother.

I really don't know how the Joe Paterno saga will end, but I am starting to get worried about having to see it end, personally. If a YouTube clip about a homeless man with a radio voice (and face — take that, homeless man!) can get eight million views in a day, there's no way I'd be able to avoid a video clip of Joe Paterno collapsing on the sideline of a football game.

As long as he doesn't die on the field, I'm set, but I do feel bad for Penn State fans because there is no way this is a good situation. There's no high school football player who is saying, "man, I really want to play football for that guy who is older than my crazy grandpa."

I have friends who are Penn State fans who say he hasn't been on a recruiting trip since visiting Terrelle Pryor, but even if he's not in the homes of recruits, it can't be easy for an 84-year-old man to relate to college kids.

For comparison, I had lunch with grandma the other day. She is 82. She was telling me a story about how she ate lunch at Bob Evans the other day and wanted ketchup on her sandwich. She tried to put some on and the nothing came out of the bottle. She turned it around to inspect it for a problem, saw none, and gave it a test squeeze, which resulted in her spraying herself in the face with ketchup. She knocked part of the lens from her glasses out and couldn't clean herself up with only one napkin, so she went to the bathroom to wash off her glasses. After a few seconds of rinsing, she noticed a man standing next to her. With her ketchup-clogged glasses, she had inadvertently went into the men's room instead. My grandma, bless her soul, is a great lady, but that's just the type of thing that happens to people in their 80s.

I know all the greats stay in the game long after they've peaked, but Paterno is taking that a little too far. Coaching a major college football program is extremely stressful. Look at Urban Meyer. The stress of coaching has turned him into a coach-version of Brett Favre (just in the retirement fake-out category, not in the sexting pictures of his unit category). Does Paterno need that? He has other interests, can't he just go off into the sunset and eat lunch with George H. Bush and play bingo or write a book or something? If he still has the coaching bug, coach a high school team or something easier.

Penn State fans deserve to see Paterno leave, on his own terms, while he's still revered and not because he was forced out or because, god forbid, "something happens to him."

Seeing him on the sidelines is just sad at this point.

Another 84-year-old man was in the news this week, as Hugh Hefner got engaged again, this time to some blonde chick in her 20s. Same scenario.

I had the good fortune to attend a party at the Playboy Mansion a few years ago and I remember at one point thinking how cool it was, seeing Hefner walking around with three blondes on his arm. That scene was fleeting, though, and was tempered by seeing Hefner earlier that night while I was being given an unauthorized tour of the Mansion by someone who had been there before. At one point, we stumbled into an isolated grassy area and saw Hefner, in his trademark pajamas, asleep in a lawn chair.

Seeing him make his brief rounds later that evening evoked the same feelings I have watching Paterno.

He was just a prop. A shell of his former-self. Dangling close to caricature territory. It was almost if he was trapped, whether it was ego or hubris or something else altogether, it just didn't feel right. And when seeing Hugh Hefner at a party at the Playboy Mansion doesn't feel right, it's time for him to get out of the game.

And when seeing Joe Paterno on the sideline for a football game feels wrong, it's time for him to finally step down.

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 7:36 PM | Comments (2)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Wild Card

Note: The quotes in this article are fictional.

New Orleans @ Seattle (+10½)

The Saints will begin defense of their Super Bowl crown by traveling to Seattle to face the Seahawks, champions of the NFC West. Of all the NFL's wild card teams, New Orleans likely has the easiest road to the divisional round, with just the 7-9 Seahawks standing in their way.

"Look at that," said Sean Payton. "We haven't even played and already we're in the 'loser's bracket.' Now the Seahawks have the team to match their '12th man' crowd, because Seattle was the '12th team' in the playoffs. But let's give the Seahawks some credit. They did keep the Rams, a fluke in their own right, out of the playoffs. So Seattle will go from facing 'The 'Greatest Faux on Earth' to 'The Greatest Sheaux on Earth.'

"But we won't underestimate the Seahawks, regardless of their record. They are at home, and we have to travel. Oddsmakers list us as 10½-point favorites, and I'm not sure who should feel more disrespected by that — us or them. Anyway, taking into account the 3 points typically awarded to the home team, it seems that not only do we gain two hours flying from New Orleans to Seattle, we also gain two touchdowns."

Seattle became the first team in NFL history to win a division with a losing record, knocking off the Rams 16-6 on Sunday night to take the West crown.

"Say what you will about our 7-9 record," Pete Carroll said. "But I'll make no apologies for our imperfections, just as I made no apologies at USC for our perfections. There are, in fact, quite a few similarities in the pro game and the college game. One being a Reggie Bush pay check. People can say what they want about me, but my record speaks for itself. In Seattle, it says 'You win some, you lose more.' In college, it said 'You win some, you forfeit more.'"

The Seahawks win the opening coin toss, and co-captain Matt Hasselbeck adds, sheepishly, "We want the ball, and we may or may not score," then scans Qwest Field for any sign of Al Harris. Hasselbeck's dreadlocked nemesis is nowhere to be found, but just to be safe, Carroll calls for three straight Marshawn Lynch runs. A successful drive ends in an Olindo Mare field goal, and the Qwest Field speakers blare the all-too-familiar sound of Frank Sinatra crooning the mantra "O. Mare, oh oh oh oh." Seattle takes a quick 3-0 lead. But a 3-0 advantage for the Seahawks just doesn't sound right; 3-7 is more appropriate, and after a Drew Brees touchdown pass to Marques Colston, that's what it is. Brees throws for 254 yards and 2 scores, and Reggie Bush returns a punt for a score, then displays the Heisman pose, empty-handed, of course.

New Orleans wins, 27-19.

NY Jets @ Indianapolis (-3)

The Colts secured their ninth-straight playoff appearance, beating the Titans 23-20 and clinching the AFC South title on Adam Vinatieri's 43-yard field goal as time expired. Indy will host the Jets in a rematch of last year's AFC championship Game, won 31-17 by the Colts.

"I've said it before and I'll say it again," said Peyton Manning. "Adam Vinatieri is living proof of the importance of having an American kicker with nerves of steel on your side. I have the utmost faith in Vinatieri. I never had this kind of confidence in Mike 'Canadian Missed' Vanderjagt. We also called him the 'Indy .500' because that was the chance of Mike making the clutch kick.

As for the Jets, we expect their best shot, whether it comes on the field or on the sideline. We've dealt with a great deal of injuries already this year, and persevered, so it's not a big deal if a Colt happens to get 'sidelined' against the Jets. In fact, I should caution Jets players should they wander onto our sideline. You've heard of the Colts piping in crowd noise. Well, we've taken a page out of musical savant Phil Spector's play book, and created a 'Wall of Sound,' which is sure to disorient any Jet that strays.

I understand Rex Ryan has described this matchup against me by saying 'it's personal.' That's interesting. It seems that lately, every time Ryan is asked about something, whether it be the playoffs or rumors of a foot fetish in the Ryan household, his reply on both occasions is 'it's personal.' History repeats itself, and so does Ryan. I'm 5-1 against Ryan-coached defenses in my career, so whether it's Rex himself or his wife, someone's getting licked. 5-1 also happens to be the 'toes-to-mouths' ratio in the Ryan household. For the Jets, 'football' is not just a game, it's an act of deviant, sexual behavior."

The Jets pummeled the Bills 38-7 to enter the playoffs with a hint of momentum after losing three of their previous four games. Ryan rested many of his starters, and Mark Sanchez played only one series without throwing a pass, giving his sore right shoulder a reprieve before the playoff push.

"Mark is still feeling pain when he throws," Ryan said. "I can certainly relate to his discomfort. All season, I've felt pain when Mark throws. Alas, he may not be the greatest Jet quarterback of all-time, but at least he knows how to treat a masseuse, and Suzy Kolber. Give 'Broadway' Joe Namath credit — he only asked for a kiss. By golly, Brett Favre puts the 'massage' in 'misogyny.' Apparently, as impending lawsuits suggest, if you don't rub Favre the right way, then he rubs you the wrong way. If Favre would have retired the first time, he would still be beloved. Now it seems he just wants to 'be loved.'"

Last year, it took Manning a half to solve the Jets defensive scheme. That's about 28 minutes more than it took Tom Brady back in early December, and that's been eating at Manning since. Manning comes out blazing, expertly mixing the pass and run. Ryan may nibble on toes, but soon his defense is biting on play action.

Manning throws for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns and Indianapolis wins, 30-25.

Baltimore @ Kansas City (+3)

With the AFC West title already clinched, the Chiefs looked flat last week against the Raiders, losing 31-10 and falling from the AFC's third seed to the fourth. As a result, they'll host the No. 5-seeded Ravens instead of the sixth-seeded Jets.

"I believe they call that 'quitting while you're ahead,'" said Todd Haley. "We really struggled with our protection issues, which doesn't bode well for us against the Ravens. Matt Cassel was sacked 7 times last week. Matt hit the ground quite a bit, so maybe our best bet against Baltimore is to hit the ground running, and live or die by our 'Pow! Wow!' rushing attack of the strapping Thomas Jones and the elusive Jamaal Charles. This duo is not your typical 'two-headed' monster. Oh no, they're the 'Arrow-headed' monster.

"Former Chiefs coach Herman Edwards once famously said, 'You play to win the game.' Then he was tricked into repeating it multiple times by those crafty Coors Light-drinking fellows. What's the point of that? I'm not sure, but if a few beer-swilling buffoons can dupe someone like Herm, then it frightens me to think what the likes Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Ed Reed can do to Cassel."

The Ravens will head to Arrowhead Stadium with the confidence of a 12-4 team, battle-tested in the AFC North, where men are men, and women are afraid to go to the bathroom alone. Baltimore squashed the Bengals upset bid last week, forcing 5 turnovers in a 13-7 win. Reed had 2 interceptions and Lewis recovered 2 fumbles as the Ravens avenged a 15-10 loss to Cincy earlier in the year.

"Another brilliant performance by Reed and Lewis," said John Harbaugh. "As you know, they're from the 'U,' and for someone whose coaching reputation depends almost solely upon them, that's good for the 'Me.'

"They say a good offense is the best defense. If that's the case, then our offense is the fourth-best defense on this team."

Ray Rice accumulates 159 total yards and a touchdown, and the Baltimore defense knocks Cassel out of the game early in the fourth, giving the weary K.C. quarterback a "Matt" finish.

Baltimore wins, 22-16.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia (-2½)

The Packers clinched the NFC's No. 6 seed with a hard-fought 10-3 victory over the Bears, and earned a Sunday afternoon date with Michael Vick and the Eagles, the NFC East champs and the NFC's No. 3 seed. Green Bay opened the season with a 27-20 win in Philadelphia, and the Packers knocked Kevin Kolb out of the game, opening the door for Vick's storied ascension.

"Maybe Vick should be asking for our autographs," said Charles Woodson. "Now, I can't say I agree with FOX News blowhard Tucker Carlson that Vick should be executed for his role in a dog-fighting ring. That's a little extreme. Death penalty? No way. Depth penalty? Maybe. However, I am hesitant to say that Vick should be allowed to own dogs again. He needs another dog like he needs another hole in his backyard. Let's pray that if Vick ever does get a dog again, he doesn't teach it to speak.

"Now, with the Packers, you never know what you're going to get from one week to the next. Much of that depends of the health of Aaron Rodgers. In our case, the 'Pack mentality' has more to do with Aaron's brain than with the team's overall state of mind. He's had two concussions this year, and we're still dealing with the repercussions of that. Aaron is young and vulnerable, which makes him a target, not only for the Eagles defense, but for Brett Favre, as well."

Philadelphia closed the season with two losses, dulling the luster of a 10-6 finish. However, the Eagles sat most of their starters in the season finale and should be well-rested when the Packers make a return visit.

"How is a meaningless loss to the Cowboys," DeSean McCoy said, "like a meaningless win against the Cowboys? You can get either by 'not trying.' This Eagles team is built on the playmaking ability of myself, LeSean McCoy, and, of course, Vick, who is the team's inspiration. It's with a nod to the hip hop genre that we call ourselves 'De Le Soul.'"

Philadelphia wins, 26-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:35 PM | Comments (4)

January 5, 2011

In Defense of San Diego State Basketball

There's a lot of things we can be sure of in college basketball.

Duke will stay at the top of the AP 25 for most of conference play this spring, more people will be talking about Connecticut's congressional races than about its women's basketball team, and a No. 12 seed will upset a No. 5 in the first round of the tournament. But this winter, one team has stood out as a contender. One team has stood out as a squad who will go deeper in the tournament than many will give them credit for. One team will score a couple of upsets and progress further than its university ever has in the postseason.

And that team is San Diego State.

Never mind that San Diego State, which has five seniors listed on its roster, is playing at the highest level of its school's history. Or the fact that the Aztecs have gone undefeated in non-conference play, a feat which has never been done. Those things are impressive, but they aren't why San Diego State will, in my opinion, rock and roll its way into the Final Four. The reason San Diego State's basketball program is firing on all cylinders wears glasses because he's nearsighted, was born in Herring, Illinois and will turn 66 this year.

From the beginning, Steve Fisher, the head coach of the San Diego State men's basketball team, has taken this program to heights it never thought possible. When he started in 1999, he was taking over a program that hadn't seen the NCAA tournament in 17 years. It had only one winning season since the Reagan administration and even in his first year, the Aztecs only mustered five wins. It was a bad program Fisher inherited, but his skills as a coach shined through.

Fisher has quietly turned that around in the last decade. He's triumphed through five straight winning seasons and reached the NIT semifinals in 2009. His Aztecs have never made it past the opening round in the NCAA tournament, but that's because they are continually snubbed by the selection committee, always garnering just a high enough reputation to be a part of the postseason, but just a low enough seed to get shell-shocked by some Big Ten powerhouse on the opening weekend.

With an undefeated record heading into conference play, and the strongest roster in recent history, San Diego State will be the feel-good story of the postseason tournament.

Let's start with forward Kawhi Leonard. Not only is the guy averaging a double-double (15.7 points per game and 10.0 rebounds per game), but he's durable (has only missed one game), has incredible endurance (has played at least 33 minutes in nine out of 14 games), and plays at his highest level during the stiffest competition (18 points, 12 rebounds and three steals against No. 12 Gonzaga). Mix in that this rising star is only a sophomore with no plans to leave early and you've got the centerpiece for a beautiful future for Aztec basketball fans that begins with some upsets in March.

The Aztecs are also scoring a lot of points, shooting a phenomenal 51.0% from the floor. That's third in the nation. Not third in the Mountain West Conference, third in the nation. Duke is shooting 50%, Syracuse is shooting 47%, Kentucky is shooting 47%, and San Diego State is making 51% of their baskets. Precise shooting is what carries underdogs through the stumbling block of the Sweet 16 and into championship contention and the Aztecs most certainly have that.

But most of all, San Diego State has a coach who knows what he's doing and has built a powerhouse basketball team that will fly under the radar and sneak attack March Madness. Fisher, in his 11th season with the Aztecs, has compiled five straight 20-win seasons and five straight postseason appearances. And all of this was without much to entice recruits. High school players dream of wearing a Blue Devil uniform, or a Buckeye uniform, or putting on Notre Dame's colors. Blue-chip recruits grew up watching Hoosiers, not paying attention to what was happening in a little-known university in Pasadena Valley.

But Fisher is a whiz when it comes to recruiting. Remember how he enticed former Syracuse great Tony Bland to come and put on the Aztec uniform? Billy White, who is shooting over 62% from the field, could have gone to a number of other mid-major schools, but chose San Diego State. So could D.J. Gay.

What brought Bland, White, and Gay to San Diego State? Steve Fisher.

Who developed them once they got there? Steve Fisher.

Who is going to lead a ragtag squad of mid-major stars to victories against opponents in the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-10? Steve Fisher.

Posted by Ryan Day at 3:01 PM | Comments (3)

January 4, 2011

NFL Week 17 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Best announcers this season: Mike Tirico, Matt Millen, and Dan Fouts.

* Congratulations to Texas Christian University on its victory in the Rose Bowl. How many times do we need Boise over Oklahoma and Utah over Alabama and TCU over Wisconsin before schools from the non-BCS conferences start getting the respect they deserve?

* Super Bowl XLV: New England Patriots over Atlanta Falcons. For the second season in a row, we get the matchup everyone wants to see.

* Did anyone else have a problem with the screen changing size in the third and fourth quarters of the Rams/Seahawks game? I swear this is a problem with NBC, not LSD. Gave me a damn headache.

* Kansas City offensive coordinator Charlie Weis is leaving to accept the same position at the University of Florida. Maybe there's something I don't know about, but it seems weird to choose what effectively amounts to a demotion.

***

The indispensable Pro-Football-Reference.com uses a simple rating system (SRS), based on strength of schedule and margin of victory, to evaluate teams. The result is like a point spread against an average team. According to the SRS, the 2010 Seattle Seahawks are by far the worst team ever to make the playoffs. The bottom five, excluding strike years:

1) 2010 Seahawks, -9.4
2) 1998 Cardinals, -7.4
3) 2004 Rams, -6.0
4) 1978 Falcons, -4.6
5) 1989 Steelers, -3.7

I'm not sure what this means, but all of the other four won their first playoff game. Moving on, our final power rankings of the 2010 season show year-end strength, not a complete summary of the season. Brackets show last week's rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — Won four of their last five games by more than four touchdowns. That includes three playoff teams and all three division rivals (the Jets counting as both). Missing Wes Welker, Deion Branch, Aaron Hernandez, Dan Connolly, Mike Wright, and Tully Banta-Cain — their top three receivers, top two pass rushers, and a starting offensive lineman — the Patriots still crushed Miami, 38-7. That includes a 38-0 lead after three quarters, before pulling the starters. Is Bill Belichick getting soft? In '07, that would have been 55-0. The Patriots were the only team in the league to go 8-0 at home this season.

2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — Nine wins in the last ten games. Atlanta led the NFL in Pro Bowlers (7): QB Matt Ryan, RB Michael Turner, FB Ovie Mughelli, WR Roddy White, TE Tony Gonzalez, ST Eric Weems, and DE John Abraham. Too much credit to the offensive glamor positions, not enough to the rest of the team. Atlanta has the fifth-ranked scoring defense in the league. Only one Pro Bowler on that unit? Shenanigans. This team can run and pass, defends both of them, it's solid in the kicking game, and despite the Pro Bowl diss, has a very good offensive line, especially the guards. There are really no weaknesses to exploit.

3. Green Bay Packers [4] — We all know about Aaron Rodgers. He is now what Brett Favre was 10 or 15 years ago. But Green Bay also has the best defense in the NFC. The Packers ranked first or second in the conference in yards allowed, points allowed, sacks, interceptions, and opponents' passer rating (67.2). Derek Anderson had the same rating this season as opposing quarterbacks did against Green Bay. The Packers have a poor record on the road (3-5), but that's misleading. It includes close losses to the Falcons and Patriots, plus that fluke Lions game when Rodgers got a concussion in the first quarter. The wins were against the Eagles and Jets, plus a 31-3 blowout of the Vikings. Green Bay has played some of its most impressive games away from Lambeau, and is not a weak road team.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — Best defenses of the last decade:

1) '02 Buccaneers
2) '06 Ravens
3) '08 Steelers
4) '10 Steelers
5) '04 Steelers
6) '09 Jets
7) '05 Bears
8) '08 Ravens
9) '03 Patriots
10) '01 Steelers

Of the previous nine: two lost in the divisional round of the playoffs, five lost the AFC Championship Game, and three won the Super Bowl.

5. Baltimore Ravens [3] — Last week, Ed Reed intercepted 2 passes, his 10th career multi-interception game. This week, he intercepted two passes again! The league has probably never had two safeties as good as Troy Polamalu and Reed in their primes at the same time. Reed suffered a rib injury in Week 17, but reportedly will play in Kansas City on Sunday. The Ravens have won four in a row and six of their last seven.

6. New Orleans Saints [5] — Were they going 100% in the loss to Tampa Bay? Absolutely not. But Drew Brees attempted 38 passes and backup Chase Daniel attempted 3. The Saints wanted to win. Would you believe the defense had a better season (fourth in yards and seventh in scoring) than the offense (sixth and 11th)? The team has a long road trip to a loud stadium for its wild card game, but I'm picking New Orleans. The Saints went 6-2 on the road, and the Seahawks are probably the worst playoff team in history. The Saints won their previous matchup, in New Orleans on November 21, by a score of 34-19. Since this one's on the road and the Saints have some injuries, let's say New Orleans by 8.

7. Chicago Bears [6] — Question and answer time...

Q: Should we worry that the Bears lost two of their last four games?
A: No. The losses were to the Patriots and Packers. The Bears aren't falling apart, they just had a tough finish to the schedule.

Q: What should we worry about?
A: The offense. Chicago scored all of 7 points against New England, 3 against Green Bay. The Bears ranked 30th in yardage and 21st in scoring. No team has ever won a Super Bowl with an offense that bad. The standard is the '02 Bucs, 24th and 18th, but great at taking care of the ball (sixth-fewest turnovers). The 2010 Bears have their moments, but the offense just isn't consistent enough or explosive enough to put together a serious run in the postseason. This is a good team that deserves to be in the playoffs and has a decent shot to win at home, but needs to radically improve its offense before it can contend.

8. Indianapolis Colts [10] — Most analysts seem to believe this was a down year for Peyton Manning. He set a career high in passing yards and tied for second in touchdown passes, with a top-10 passer rating and by far the best sack percentage in the league. This was a better year than his 2008 MVP season. Top five in sack %:

1) Peyton, 2.3%
2) Eli, 2.9%
3) Drew Brees, 3.7%
4) Matt Ryan, 3.87%
5) Shaun Hill (!), 3.93%

The bottom five:

1) Jay Cutler, 10.7%
2) Jimmy Clausen, 9.9%
3) Jason Campbell, 9.1%
4) Michael Vick, 8.4%
5) David Garrard, 8.3%

9. New York Jets [13] — A lot of people are underestimating the Jets. In the last three weeks, they've demolished a division rival by 31 points, scored 34 against the Bears, and beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They went 11-5, including 6-2 on the road, and they seem to win when they have to. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has been uneven, but the ground attack ranks fourth in the NFL, and the defense is one of the league's best. That said, I'm taking the Colts at home. Indy by 3.

10. Philadelphia Eagles [8] — Has anyone who's been healthy most of the season had a more disappointing year than Kevin Kolb? Facing a terrible Dallas defense in the finale, he threw 3 interceptions and got outplayed by third-string Cowboy QB Stephen McGee. Yeah, I know the Eagles held out some starters, but Kolb entered the season looking to become a franchise QB, and he hasn't even played like a good backup. The Eagles host Green Bay on Sunday, a rematch of the Week 1 game Philadelphia lost, 27-20. Green Bay's defense is too good, and Aaron Rodgers is just going to carve up the Philly defense. I'll call for a repeat of the opener: Pack by 7.

11. Oakland Raiders [14] — I can't imagine how frustrating it is to be a fan of the Raiders. Tom Cable has totally turned this team around, taken the offense from 31st to top-10, earned the first non-losing season in nine years. In my mind, he's a serious Coach of the Year candidate. NFL Network's Michael Lombardi reports that owner Al Davis is unlikely to retain Cable. In related news, the Patriots are planning to fire Bill Belichick, and the Falcons think they can do better than Mike Smith. All kidding aside, things like this make you seriously worry about Davis' mental capacity. His judgement seems incredibly impaired at this point, and I wonder if he shouldn't be under supervision. The Raiders swept the AFC West this season, the first team ever to sweep a division without winning it.

12. San Diego Chargers [11] — Top-ranked offense and defense in the NFL, one of five teams to outscore its opponents by over 100 this season, but they missed the playoffs. In a fitting end to a season doomed by rancid special teams, the Chargers gave up a 97-yard kickoff return TD in the season finale. Before this season, the Chargers consistently had great special teams. Offseason priority: depth. And bring back Kassim Osgood.

13. New York Giants [12] — Since the league expanded to 32 teams, this is the first time two that finished 10-6 or better have missed the playoffs in the same season. All six: 2003 Dolphins, 2005 Chiefs, 2007 Browns, 2008 Patriots (11-5), 2010 Giants and Buccaneers. The Giants led the NFL in both takeaways (39) and turnovers (42). The last team to do so was the '03 Rams, who committed 39 turnovers but roped in 46 takeaways en route to a 12-4 finish. The worst turnover margins among winning teams in 2010: Giants (-3), Colts (-4), Chargers (-6), Saints (-6).

14. Kansas City Chiefs [9] — I'm picking the Ravens. I might have gone with KC against the Jets, but Baltimore is the wrong matchup. The Chiefs went 2-4 in the AFC West this year, the worst record for a division winner since the '71 49ers. Both the Chargers and Raiders just owned Kansas City inside the last month, winning by a combined 62-10. The Chiefs went 7-1 at home this year, and I'm not counting them out, but they played the easiest schedule in the AFC, can't throw, and really struggled at the end of the season. Baltimore by a touchdown.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [16] — First 10-win season since '05. The Bucs' leading rusher and receiver this season were LeGarrette Blount and Mike Williams, respectively. That's a change from '09 leaders Cadillac Williams and Kellen Winslow, Jr. Cadillac and Winslow replaced '08 leaders Warrick Dunn and Antonio Bryant, who took over for '07 leaders Earnest Graham and Joey Galloway. Mike Williams and Blount are both rookies, so hopefully the team has finally found some stability. That certainly appears to be the case at quarterback, where Josh Freeman looks like a star.

16. Detroit Lions [15] — Longest winning streak in the NFL: Patriots, 8. Second-longest: (tie) Colts, Lions, Ravens, 4 each. This is Detroit's first four-game win streak since 1999. This team finally appears to be moving in the right direction. Best turnover differential among losing teams: Rams (+5), Lions (+4), Cowboys (0), Texans (0).

17. Cincinnati Bengals [22] — Don't trust the highlight shows. Jerome Simpson caught 12 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown, true. He also lost 2 fumbles, including one that set up the game-winning touchdown. The Bengals improved immensely in the last month of the season. Maybe 2-3 doesn't sound impressive, but it is after starting 2-9, especially because the losses came against the Saints, Steelers, and Ravens. No shame there. It's clear now that the distractions were more trouble than they were worth. No one blames ownership for taking a chance, but it's time to move on.

18. Dallas Cowboys [19] — Jason Garrett went 5-3 as head coach, and the Cowboys' offense was top-10. When everyone is healthy next season, they figure to score a ton. But can they stop anyone? This year's Cowboys allowed the most points in team history. The secondary needs a drastic overhaul, through free agency and the draft, and the new coach, whether it's Garrett (as everyone expects) or someone else, likely will look for a new defensive coordinator.

19. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Lost their last three, including two straight to teams that finished 6-10. Head coach Jack Del Río reportedly will get another season at the helm, and I think that's appropriate, but he's clearly got some work to do. Jacksonville was -15 in turnovers this year. The Jags are very good at one thing, running the football. They're bad at passing, and they can't play defense. David Garrard is an acceptable starting quarterback, but he needs better receivers. The defense, a powerhouse five years ago, is awful. Jacksonville's first three draft picks this April: defensive end, wide receiver, defensive back, though not necessarily in that order. It wouldn't hurt to tackle one of those needs in free agency, either.

20. Miami Dolphins [18] — One of the most amazing home/road splits in history, 1-7 at home and 6-2 on the road. Chad Henne does not look like the answer at quarterback, and it may be time to replace Ricky Williams with someone younger. The defense is very good. Miami closed the season with three straight losses.

21. Minnesota Vikings [20] — You think he's gone?! He's not gone! He's never gone!

22. San Francisco 49ers [26] — Won big in Week 17, with star performances by Justin Smith (3 sacks), Vernon Davis (96 yards, TD), and Brian Westbrook (2 TDs). I don't understand why Westbrook wasn't a bigger part of the gameplan after Frank Gore got hurt. He made big plays when they gave him a chance.

23. Tennessee Titans [24] — Lost eight of their last nine, and it remains to be seen whether Jeff Fisher will return next season. The situation seems to be that he is invited back as long as Vince Young is his starting QB. Coach Fisher seems like he might prefer to look for work elsewhere if that's the way it's going to be. Like him or not, the team is clearly better with Young than with Kerry Collins. If Young really can't keep his act together, the team needs to find a new quarterback. There's no reason the Titans should be losing.

24. Seattle Seahawks [31] — The first-ever division champ with a losing record. When the 8-8 San Diego Chargers won the AFC West two years ago, there was nothing resembling an outcry. Why not? The Chargers were a good team. They had made the AFC Championship Game the year before, had talent on the roster, outscored their opponents by 92 points, and were hot going into the playoffs. The Seahawks are not a good team. They haven't had a winning record in three years, have no Pro Bowlers, got outscored by 97, and came into Week 17 having lost three in a row and five of their last six. The Seahawks' inclusion in the postseason feels particularly unjust because the 10-6 Giants and Buccaneers, both clearly more deserving, didn't qualify.

25. Houston Texans [30] — Fired four defensive coaches, including coordinator Frank Bush. Former Cowboys HC Wade Phillips, a former assistant with the Oilers and the son of legendary Houston coach Bum Phillips, is expected to replace Bush. Between the arrival of Phillips and the returns of DeMeco Ryans and Mario Williams, the Texans figure to field a respectable defensive unit to complement an offense that is already top-10. Houston's biggest problem this season was injuries, and if the team stays healthy in 2011, it could be a contender.

26. Buffalo Bills [21] — Worst turnover differential in the league, -17. Maybe they can talk Aaron Schobel out of retirement. Heck, get on the phone with Cornelius Bennett while you're at it. Yeah, he's 45, but he can't be worse than the guys they have now.

27. St. Louis Rams [23] — If the voters had any clue at all — which they assuredly do not — Sunday night's loss would definitively crush the Sam Bradford for Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign. Bradford just wilted in the most important game of the season, and it's not like he was lighting it up before that. His 76.5 passer rating ranked 25th in the NFL, behind three backups (Jon Kitna, Kerry Collins, and Shaun Hill), two guys who got benched (Kyle Orton and Donovan McNabb), and San Francisco's Alex Smith. The Rams had the 26th-ranked offense in the league, and we're supposed to celebrate the guy who ran it?

Here are some ideas for more deserving candidates: Tampa RB LeGarrette Blount (1,007 yds, 5.0 avg, 6 TD), Tampa WR Mike Williams (65 rec, 964 yds, 11 TD), Patriot TE Rob Gronkowski (42 rec, 546 yds, 10 TD), Tennessee KR Marc Mariani (KR TD, PR TD, led NFL in combined return yardage, Pro Bowler), Pittsburgh C Maurkice Pouncey (started every game, Pro Bowler), Oakland WR/KR Jacoby Ford (155 rush yds, 15.5 avg, 2 TD, 25 rec, 470 yds, 2 TD, 24.2 KR avg, 3 KR TD). Two Pro Bowlers, a 1,000-yard rusher with a great average, the most explosive kickoff returner in the league, and a couple guys with double-digit receiving touchdowns are all less impressive than a rookie QB who was totally undistinguished except that he started every game and threw a lot? I'm not buying it. The other guys were above average at their positions, while Bradford was below average at his.

28. Washington Redskins [27] — Lost three of the last four games by a field goal or less. In two of the three, rookie kicker Graham Gano missed short field goals. On the whole, though, Gano was the least of Washington's problems this season. Foremost is personnel, a perennial problem under Daniel Snyder, followed by the coaching staff's stunning mismanagement of players. I suppose Mike Shanahan probably has a plan, but it's not apparent what he's trying to do.

29. Cleveland Browns [25] — Losers of four straight, they'll also be looking for a new head coach this offseason. Firing HCs after two years is ridiculous, and it's not Eric Mangini's fault that he took over a team without any offense. That said, the Browns didn't exactly rise up to save their boss' job. Cleveland closed the season with a 41-9 loss to its biggest rival. That's an awful taste to have in your mouth for the next nine months.

30. Arizona Cardinals [28] — Fell apart without Kurt Warner and Karlos Dansby. Byron Leftwich will be a free agent after this season. He's 30, which is not old for a quarterback, and he knows Ken Whisenhunt's offensive system. The Cardinals would do well to bring him in for a look. Opponents outscored the Cardinals by 145 points this season, second-worst in the league.

31. Denver Broncos [29] — Tim Tebow destroyed my fantasy team. We go through Week 17, and I was in a tight battle for first place. Just before kickoff on Sunday, the guy I was competing with benched Jay Cutler and picked up Tebow (we play more than one QB). I thought he was using Cutler, meaning I had won, but Tebow's 94 rushing yards and 3 TDs doomed me to second. Curse you, Tim Tebow. Also, Pat Bowlen, Josh McDaniels, Eric Studesville, and anyone else I can blame for this.

32. Carolina Panthers [32] — Only team to go 0-8 on the road this season, also the only team outscored by 150 points, by 212 in fact — 408-196.

Beat the NFL playoff odds this postseason when you signup for the NFL football picks offered by top handicappers.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 6:00 PM | Comments (0)

What to Watch For in College Football in '11

As the sun sets — quite anti-climactically, I might add — on the 2010 college football season with action in varying bowl destinations this month, you are sure to be inundated with a compilation of blogs, articles, and "informative" e-mails early this year about one of the following two college-football-related subjects: how the BCS is ruining college football and the 2011 NFL draft. To be honest, you'll probably see at least one of those articles with an authored "by-line" from yours truly. But this, people, is no such article.

Rather than bore you with my ideology as it relates to a college football playoff system (firmly in the corner of adding a true national championship game matching winners of the 1 vs. 4, 2 vs. 3 bowl matchups played the weekend before, and this is the bare minimum in terms of changes I'd like to see made) and instead of posting a ridiculously-but-typically premature counsel on the first round of the NFL draft (Carolina will draft Clemson DE Da'Quan Bowers, Denver will trade down with Arizona, who will select Stanford QB Andrew Luck, but I digress), I have chosen to inform you on what may come of the 2011 college football season by way of understanding the top units looking to return to campuses next fall.

Before delving much farther into the subject, I must first caveat this whole affair by pointing out this assessment is based on those I feel are going to opt out of college early, so things may still change for some of the groups. Alas, we are only as good as our own instinct, and I trust mine, so it is with this that you all must live should you choose to peruse the remainder of this missive. Now with that bit of self-preservation in place, let's move on to the meat of this story.

Offensive Backfield (QBs and RBs): Oregon Ducks

From where I'm standing, this is the toughest group to players to project. So many things can happen through the course of an offseason; injuries, suspensions, coaching/style changes; however, one thing is very easy to deign and that is that 2011 will feature a good number of very talented backfields and a whole lot more of the up-temp, high-scoring offensive action we saw in 2010.

Yes, I know how cliché it is to offer up the top offensive backfield from 2010 as the top unit the following season, but this particular group of talented athletes is well-deserving of such treatment. QB Darron Thomas accounted for 33 TDs in 2010, managed a 28/7 TD-to-INT ratio and truly made defending the Ducks while he was in the game a nightmare for opponents. Junior-to-be LaMichael James was a Heisman finalist and put up 1,682 yards on the ground. Kenjon Barner is back, as will be the bruising-but-rarely used Andres Reed, who can get those tough short yards should Oregon ever need them. Add to that a half-dozen frosh RBs that either red-shirted or understudied (the most promising of which would be Houston-native Dontae Williams) and a small handful of newbie QB options and you really have to bet the over for most of the Ducks' contests in 2011.

Honorable Mention — Boise State should have Kellen Moore back for his fourth and final rodeo and an All-Conference RB in Doug Martin toting the ball. Alabama will feature two of the country's top-10 RBs in the same backfield should Mark Ingram come back for his senior season (which I suspect will happen), as well as a wild card Reggie Bush-type in the versatile Marquis Maze. The Auburn Tigers also may have a dog in this fight based solely on the singular brilliance of one Cameron Newton, but come on, we all know that Cam is about as likely to lace them up in Jordan-Hare Stadium next season as I am.

One final consideration of note: the Arkansas Razorbacks. Should Ryan Mallett not throw his name into the NFL draft lot, the combo of Mallett and runners Knile Davis and Ronnie Wingo make this offensive backfield as good as any and, quite honestly, would compel me to move the 'Hogs to the top of the national rankings in 2011.

Don't Sleep On: Georgia — Sophomore Aaron Murray put together as strong a freshman campaign as you can without garnering much of the national spotlight. Try this on for size: 3,049 passing yards, 24/8 TD-to-INT ratio, 154.5 QB rating. While his Liberty Bowl performance was less than inspiring, I'll chalk that one up to a freshman playing like a freshman and will expect few similar results in 2011 and beyond. Further, Washaun Ealey and Caleb King provide a very appealing 1-2 punch from their tailback position. Granted, the likely departure of superstar wide out A.J. Green won't help Murray remain on top of his game, but I just wonder how much of Green's excellence late in 2011 was a result of his young QB maturing and finding a rhythm.

Receivers (WR/TE): Texas A&M Aggies

I can hear the comments now — I make my money and lay my roots in southeast Texas, so this is nothing more than a homer pick. Truth be told, my son — who is now 11 — carries inside him an affinity for the maroon and white which, quite honestly, sickens me to my core. The last thing I would ever do is unjustly exalt Mike Sherman's boys atop any list. The reality is the trio of Jeff Fuller, Ryan Swope, and Nehemiah Hicks is as formidable a WR-WR-TE trio as you'll see. Factor in their depth — 12 of 13 pass-catching players from 2010 are returning for the 2011 season — and those Aggies are poised for another strong campaign as they try to remain relevant on the college football landscape for the first time in more than a few years.

Honorable Mention — Two other Big 12 schools — Missouri and Oklahoma — figure prominently with their top-tier receiving units. Mizzou's prospects for being elite versus just above average are contingent on the decision of All-Big 12 TE Mike Agnew's willingness to stick around Columbia for another year, while OU awaits a similar decision from dynamic receiver Ryan Broyles, the nation's very best WR not named Justin Blackmon.

Don't Sleep On: Maryland — Should Mike Leach be the guy at head coach — as it appears will be the case — Maryland's unit of Quintin McCree, Kevin Dorsey, Ryan Tyler, and TE Matt Fustenburg could well put up the most impressive numbers in 2011. But then again, when does a Mike Leach coached team not put up the most impressive receiving numbers?

Offensive Line: Virginia Tech Hokies

A sleeper group, the Hokies boast four returning starters and are anchored by behemoth tackle Blake DeChristopher. At guard, a pair of potential All-Conference-caliber players in Jaymes Brooks and Greg Nosal will flank whomever ultimately gets moved to center to replace the graduating Beau Warren (the 6'7" Michael Via is one option and does show promise, though his size makes it more likely that Andrew Miller will slide into the starting lineup). Finally, Andrew Lanier, a versatile though undersized tackle, rounds out this promising group that will be made up of all seniors, but for the aforementioned center position. Virginia Tech should be poised for a nice 2011 showing behind this stable, consistent line of blockers.

Honorable Mention — Boise State once again merits consideration on our list with a tandem of All-Conference stars in tackle Nate Potter and center Thomas Byrd and a couple of notable juniors in Joe Kellog and Brenel Myers. Iowa — always a factor with their pro-style blocking schemes — features one of the nation's best offensive tackles in Riley Reiff to go along with a solid and experienced set of interior blockers anchored by C James Ferentz.

Don't Sleep On — BYU. If he does not turn pro, OT Matt Reynolds is probably the best prospect at the position in football and he would be joined by three returning starters. While they certainly won't get any headlines, this team could be well-positioned as a BCS-Bowl-Buster should the cards fall just right this offseason.

Defensive Line: Missouri Tigers

The last thing I expected to see when I started down the path of research for this piece was the Missouri Tigers anywhere near the top of this list. But after much review, the facts are just that undeniable. The Tigers feature a bona fide All-America candidate at either end positions in senior Jacquies Smith and junior Aldon Smith. In the middle, Mizzou has two legit 6'5", 300-pound stalwarts in seniors Terrell Ressono and Dominique Hamilton and the team also boasts some depth with DT Jimmy Burge and ends Mike Sam and Brad Madison. While teams like Nebraska and Wisconsin get the headlines with their sizeable lines and All-America candidates, the Tigers should prove to be the most difficult d-line to game plan against on a consistent basis.

Honorable Mention — The most notable Honorable Mention clearly is Wisconsin. Should all-world defensive end J.J. Watt — who really showed scouts just how valuable and versatile he is in his most recent action against TCU — shock the world and remain in Madison for another season, you can bump them to the top of this list, I just don't see that as a likely scenario at this point. Nebraska, who also bears mentioning here, has a similar scenario playing out with junior DT Jared Crick, but even without Crick, Baker Steinkuhler, Terrence Moore, Josh Williams, and Cameron Meredith would figure to be a formidable front four. Also, Penn State returns all four starters and should be consistent, if not dominant.

Don't Sleep On — Syracuse. Yes, you read that right. I am fairly certain few of you readers out there realize that Doug Marrone's Orange was No. 5 defensively in the country in 2010; I know I didn't until I started digging. In Chandler Jones, Torrey Ball, and Mikhail Marinovich, the edge rushers have some experience and, though their defensive line looks to lose a few key contributors, I'm keeping an eye on DT Deon Goggins as a player who I think will really emerge as a force in 2011.

Linebakers: TCU Horned Frogs

I'm going to be honest, I had no idea how good this defense was — in particularly the linebackers — until I watched the Frogs torment the normally very efficient Wisconsin offense. It's the little things that make this unit so much fun to watch — the coverage angles their 'backers take, the disguised blitzes, the manner in which they gravitate towards the ball and tackle on contact — and put them in such consistent position to make plays. For the purposes of this article, I'm calling rush end Matt Anderson a linebacker, and he's a promising young playmaker. Junior Tanner Brock is fundamentally sound and athletically gifted, but there isn't a more pro-ready college linebacker than senior Tank Carder. While Carder may not get all the notoriety, watching him play quickly demonstrates how good he really is. He rarely if ever misses an assignment, is always around the ball, and consistently shows up when the game is on the line.

Honorable Mention — Virginia Tech has another strong crop of linebackers, led by junior Bruce Taylor. Texas should be able to put back a bounce-back campaign behind their strong linebacker corps, which is led by All-Conference seniors Emmanuel Acho and Keenan Robinson. The Miami Hurricanes also look set at linebacker with Ramon Buchanan, youngster Kelvin Cain, and team leader Sean Spence.

Don't Sleep On — San Diego State University. Miles Burris is quite possibly the best linebacker in the country that nobody has heard about. The Aztec Senior flirted with the 10/20 mark in sacks and tackles for loss, respectively and also led the team in tackles. SDSU also plays one of the most unique defenses in the country, with two LB/S hybrids that play alongside the standard three LB set. Logan Ketchum is a solid compliment to Burris.

Defensive Backfield (CB/S): Tennessee Volunteers

The Vols just barely nipped some of the honorable mentions here, and in the end they were given the edge based on their potential. Theirs is a secondary that looks like it will be made up of three juniors and a sophomore, along with senior Art Evans handling the nickel DB position. Safeties Prentiss Waggner and Janzen Jackson are both supremely talented individuals who should be shoo-ins as All-Conference players in the defense-heavy SEC. The other truly noteworthy attribute of this group is their depth. The aforementioned Evans, along with senior Anthony Anderson, give them experience and depth at CB, and sophomore reserve safety Brent Brewer provides some insurance there, as well.

Honorable Mention — The most notable honorable mention in this article is the secondary of the LSU Tigers. In the incredibly unlikely scenario that would have all-universe CB Patrick Peterson not forgo his senior year to play professionally in 2011, you'd have to move LSU to the top of this list. Even without Peterson — which is the far more likely situation — junior Morris Claiborne would team with seniors Ron Brooks (CB), Brandon Taylor (S), and Karnell Hatcher (S) to give the Tigers a strong, experienced unit to contend with. West Virginia is another notable group, led by seniors Keith Tandy and Robert Sands. A third team to watch for is Texas A&M. They have as much experience in their defensive backfield as anyone in the country, returning all four starters and three others that netted significant game-action in 2010.

Don't Sleep On — Texas. The Longhorns will, for the first time in a considerably long time, be flying slightly below the radar coming in to 2011. While their chances for recapturing their juggernaut status will remain firmly planted on the offensive side of the ball, Christian Scott, Blake Gideon, Kenny Vaccaro, and All-America candidate Aaron Williams give the 'Horns a very stable set of athletic corners and safeties to help cement their defensive game plan.

Conclusion

What does all this mean? Well, considering it is barely 2011 and we don't even know who the national champion is yet (and to be honest, we won't know that even after one is declared January 10th, but I again digress), this probably doesn't mean a whole lot. But if nothing else, it does start to paint a picture as to what we, as fans, can look for in 2011 and may help provide even more enlightenment to the already crystal-clear argument that the depth of talented teams in today's college football landscape begs a realignment of the postseason.

Posted by Matt Thomas at 11:35 AM | Comments (0)

January 3, 2011

Masterpiece in K.C.

When the Herm Edwards era came to a close in Kansas City after the 2008-2009 season, the football fans in the area had grown accustomed to watching a certain style of football. It was a style of football that saw their beloved Chiefs seemingly inventing new ways to lose, new ways to get embarrassed, every single week.

Worse yet, the team didn't have the right attitude to change anything, and as a result, they not only kept losing, but became used to it. Arm-tackles ruled the day for the defense, and actually blocking a defender was a lofty goal of the offensive linemen, rather than an expectation. It surprised no one when this team won only 6 games over a two-year period, and probably played worse than their record would indicate.

A culture of losing had taken hold of Kansas City. But Carl Peterson and Herm Edwards were both gone following a 2-14 season, and Chiefs fans everywhere were simply hoping their favorite team could begin a gradual shift from laughing-stock to respectable franchise. They got so much more.

Less than two weeks after firing Edwards, and less than a month after taking over as General Manager, Scott Pioli decided to hire Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley as head coach for the Chiefs, and then brought in Matt Cassel, a quarterback he had been responsible for bringing to the New England Patriots. The Chiefs finally had a strong foundation, and it was put together in only seven weeks.

Optimism took place of the bitter attitudes many Chiefs fans had previously expressed, and they prepared themselves for the long road towards relevancy. While the first year with the new regime didn't appear to be much better (the team finished with a 4-12 record) — and it certainly wasn't without its tough-to-swallow moments, such as the trade that sent longtime fan-favorite Tony Gonzalez to Atlanta — there were signs of improvement and growth.

Then came the 2010 NFL offseason. After a draft class that was almost unanimously considered to be great, and after seeing the leadership of veteran players like Thomas Jones and Mike Vrabel in training camp, most NFL analysts agreed the Chiefs were on the rise and were posed for a turnaround season. Predictions generally ranged anywhere from 6 to 8 wins for the Chiefs, and they gladly would have taken that. But once again, they got so much more.

They've been called the Kansas City Patriots, and it seems as fitting a nickname as any for a team whose general manager (Pioli), offensive coordinator (Charlie Weis), defensive coordinator (Romeo Crennel), team leader (Matt Cassel), and defensive captain (Mike Vrabel) are all ex-Patriots.

Because this group has proven to be so invaluable to the success of the year for the Chiefs, much will be made of Charlie Weis' decision to leave after only one year. But as a Chiefs fan, I realized two things after thinking it over.

The first was that I didn't want a coach who would leave a team so quickly and, at least seemingly, without cause. The second was that there is a wealth of talent for that position in this offense-heavy NFL. So if they've got to lose either Weis or Romeo Crennel, I'll hold the door for Weis on the way out.

Chief fans and experts need to steer clear of panic mode when it comes to losing Weis. Anybody who has seen this team play this year can see that Weis hasn't been the biggest reason for the resurgence of the offense. If you don't believe me, wait until next year, because the offense will be even better.

It's guys like Matt Cassel and Jamaal Charles playing good football that's making the offense work, and they're finding success because the offensive line has been playing great the majority of the year. Next year, even without Weis, this offense will be fine because he was just one piece of the puzzle.

On the defensive side, they've been in the top half of the league all year long, and they've done so well because Romeo Crennel is brilliant, and has possibly the fastest defense in the league to work with. If the Chiefs can find a good pass-rusher to complement Tamba Hali (whose exclusion from the Pro Bowl is a crime), people will find out next year just how good that young secondary is.

Sunday's loss to the Raiders may sting, but this young group will bounce back. Whether or not they beat the Ravens this weekend, they've had a successful season. They've already accomplished more than almost anyone said they could.

The experts want to tell you that the Chiefs' 10-6 record is largely a by-product of an easy schedule. Whether or not they're right is of no consequence. The fact of the matter is that winning a game in the NFL is hard, but the Chiefs have done so 10 times this year after doing so the same number of times in the previous three years.

What really matters is that they won the AFC West and that they'll host a playoff game. It's a game they have a great chance to win, and if they do, it'll be the first time in their last seven playoff games that they've done so.

After this season is finished for the Chiefs, whenever that may be, they've got a lot to look forward to. They've got young players on both sides of the ball that will only get better this offseason, and they've got five picks in the first three rounds of the draft this year, as well as enough cap room to sign the players they draft and possibly possibly make a move for a proven talent.

When the Chiefs take the field in 2011, they'll be better than they were this year, which is a scary outlook for the rest of the AFC West.

Don't worry, Chiefs fans. This team may not be elite just yet, but they weren't supposed to be. They're a rebuilding project that's a year ahead of schedule. Just think of what next year will bring.

The players are becoming used to winning football games, and the fans are becoming to seeing it happen.

A culture of winning has developed in Kansas City. These Chiefs are for real, and they aren't going away any time soon.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 6:36 PM | Comments (1)

Going Up?

Approaching the halfway point of the NBA season, the feel-good story of the league is most definitely the New York Knicks. The addition of Amare Stoudemire (and in a slightly lesser manner, Raymond Felton) has brought results to Mike D'Antoni's East Coast replication of his Phoenix tenure. It just proves, even the Knicks can come back to relevancy. There is hope for the down-trodden.

At this point, I'd say that there are four tiers of teams in each conference: elite, playoff-caliber, postseason contenders, and also-rans.

The elite teams out East are Boston, Miami, and Orlando. The next level includes Chicago, Atlanta, and, at this point, New York. The contenders for the lower spots include Milwaukee, Charlotte, and maybe Indiana.

West of the Mississippi, the elite teams are the L.A. Lakers, San Antonio, and Dallas. The playoff teams right now are Oklahoma City, Utah, Denver, and New Orleans. The contenders are Phoenix, Houston, and Portland.

This leaves 11 teams (12 if you include the possibility of Indiana) that could be considered also-rans. But which of these cellar dwellers can turn it around like the Knicks appear to have done strolling into 2011?

Minnesota Timberwolves

That's right, I said the T-Wolves. Maybe it's the Mississippi river water. Maybe it's the brutal cold. Maybe it's the piles of snow all around the city. For some reason, the team that plays just blocks from where I work seems to be the next candidate in line to make a major leap.

Reasons why I like them — The team seems to be getting more of the Triangle offense that Kurt Rambis is trying to install. Kevin Love, like Blake Griffin, is a double-double already in progress. Michael Beasley has shown spurts of promise in his second year in the Association. And wouldn't you know it? This team might be displaying that Darko Milicic could actually have something resembling basketball skills. Right now, these guys are the team that can't close. They've blown eight fourth-quarter leads as of Sunday. If they can learn to hold on late in games, 35 wins is a very reachable goal. Maybe I'm just starting to buy what GM David Kann is doing (man, that's a scary thought).

Reasons that could derail it — The biggest one off the top of my head would be letting Love go. He's been rumored to be trade bait near the deadline, which would take away a big time low-post threat. It actually seems that getting rid of Al Jefferson helped the Wolves last year, but getting rid of their supposed best player again might throw them back into a rebuilding mode.

New Jersey Nets

The team with the worst record last year might not seem like the best candidate for a turnaround. Usually, they're young, bereft of talent, and possibly not in the best financial state. I believe the Nets are achieving 1.5 out of the 3. They're a little less talented and pretty young (seventh youngest team in the Association), but the green funding the project has now been replenished.

Reasons why I like them — The biggest one are their new deep pockets in the form of rookie owner Mikhail Prokhorov. With no hard salary cap, the Russian billionaire can sink a little more income into his roster. A bit closer to the court, I like the head of the program on the bench. Say what you will about Avery Johnson, but he took a group of Dallas Maverick players that mainly underachieved and at least got them to the NBA Finals, something Don Nelson couldn't do before and Rick Carlisle hasn't done since. The team also has some talent on the court in the form of co-captains Devin Harris and Brook Lopez.

Reason that could derail it — To be honest, Carmelo Anthony might do more harm than good if this team can pull off the trade to get him. At this point, I've heard that any trade offer would include Derrick Favors (this year's third overall pick) and future draft picks. I know Favors is basically a project right now, but I think there's a better chance of Favors growing into a good compliment for Lopez than Anthony being the "cornerstone" piece that would vault the squad into playoff contention.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings have the sixth-youngest and third-most inexperienced squad in the league. It's been a struggle for the central Cali organization since their heyday back in the early part of the last decade. However, some pieces are in place to make a bit of a resurgence.

Reasons why I like them — Those pieces are there in the form of last year's Rookie of the Year, Tyreke Evans, and a candidate for this season's fourth overall pick, DeMarcus Cousins. If healthy and on the court (see "derail"), these two have the talent to be the inside-outside punch that can start the "revival to playoff royalty."

Reasons that could derail it — Even with the talent Cousins showed in his one year at Kentucky and in lapses with the Kings, he's as notorious for his immaturity as for his play. Cousins wants to prove the teams that passed him up wrong (all three of them). Will coach Paul Westphal get Cousins to focus his energy? If Westphal isn't around that long, can the next coach make the big man hone it on his skill set?

Sidenote: Could this be the next Thunder? Could the Kings move out of the California capital, then realize their potential in a fresh air situation of another locale? Should be interesting to follow.

Washington Wizards

Gilbert Arenas is now gone from Chocolate City. It was an interesting courtship between the shooting guard and the Wizards organization. But with the former "Hibachi" now residing in Orlando, this team has truly seen a shift of foundation.

Reasons why I like them — John Wall was the consensus number one pick. And he could be reminiscent of another John Calipari revelation, former number one pick Derek Rose. It might take a couple of years, just the the current Chicago point man, but the potential is there. A couple other nice pieces of the puzzle are available in power forward Andray Blatche (who came on strong late last season) and lanky guard Nick Young (who showed glimpses of promise in year two of his career). The new owner, Ted Leonsis doesn't hurt, either. His Capitals are using that same building to become one of the best teams in the NHL's Eastern Conference.

Reasons that could derail them — They're in the same division as Miami, Orlando, and Atlanta. Even though the Hawks aren't the most dependable playoff squad, they have figured out how to get there consistently. The other two, well, they're possible championship contenders. Having them in your own division doesn't really help matters that much.

Golden State Warriors

For my money, this is the most exciting team in the league. They can put up 120 on any given night. They used this formula a few years back to stun Dallas in the opening round of the postseason. But can they regain that magic and make another run deep into April?

Reasons why I like them — Three keys: Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, and David Lee. These guys, along with Andris Biedrins clogging the middle, possibly expand the model that Run TMC set in the early 1990s. They might be more potent than the Baron Davis and Stephen Jackson squad that took down the top-seeded Mavs. And to add to the enforcers on the inside, rookie Ekpe Udoh should continue to grow and provide toughness on the interior.

Reasons that could derail them — The coaching factor has now become a question mark. Everyone knew that Don Nelson's time was short, but I'm not sure how his replacement, Keith Smart, will fare on the bench. He could turn out to be a hidden gem. But time will tell. If he can get this team to play a little D now and again, that would go quite a ways in establishing some credibility.

The seeds have been planted. Now bury them under the snowfall and wait. We'll find how long it takes the results to bloom, whether they sprout to flourish or wilt and wither.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 3:27 PM | Comments (0)

January 2, 2011

UFC 125, Dynamite!! 2010, and January UFC Rankings

Let's talk about Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard. Well, hang on. Happy New Year. For mixed martial arts fans, 2010 went out with a bang, and 2011 came in with one. Dynamite!! 2010 (on New Year's Eve) was a fun card, and UFC 125 (on New Year's Day) was a solid event with a terrific headliner. I didn't fit Sengoku: Soul of Fight (on December 30) into my schedule. As it is, I've spent 24 hours watching sports in the last three days: five hours for Dynamite!!, three for the Rose Bowl, four for UFC 125, and 12 for football on Sunday. That's half my waking life, and I spent most of the other half reading or writing about sports. Adding another MMA event would have required total abdication of my social life and day-to-day responsibilities. Sorry, Sengoku fans. For now, let's talk about Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard.

Edgar, the lightweight champion, was coming off back-to-back wins over B.J. Penn. His only career loss was a 2008 unanimous decision against the undefeated Maynard. This was Edgar's chance for revenge, and Maynard finally got his long-awaited shot at the title. In the most exciting fight of Maynard's UFC career, he put Edgar in huge trouble early, but was unable to put the champ away, and tired visibly afterwards. Edgar rebounded, and the fight was declared a draw. Glen Trowbridge scored the bout 48-46 Maynard, Marcos Rosales had it 48-46 for the champ, and Patricia Morse Jarman scored a 47-47 tie. Edgar kept his belt, both fighters were visibly upset afterwards, and there has been widespread disagreement about the scoring in the fight.

I had it 48-46 for Maynard: 10-8, 9-10, 10-9, 9-10, 10-9. The fifth round was razor close, so 47-47 seemed reasonable, too. But how on earth did Rosales give four rounds to Edgar? I watched the fight again, and the third round was closer than I initially thought. Maynard landed a couple of damaging strikes, but Edgar peppered him throughout the round, especially the first three minutes. I also reconsidered the fifth round; it probably should have been 10-10 or a very slight edge to Edgar. Upon second viewing, I had the same score as Jarman: 47-47.

The draw doesn't bother me. It's not particularly satisfying, but it's the only fair result in a fight neither man truly dominated. Maynard should have won early, though. In the first round, from 3:30-3:00, he had multiple opportunities to sink a rear naked choke on Edgar, but instead, he threw haymakers and punched himself out.

After initially announcing that WEC champion Anthony Pettis would get the next shot at Edgar, in a lightweight unification bout, the UFC reversed course and granted Maynard a rematch. That seems like the right thing to do. Both fighters seemed pretty beaten up, however, and if either gets a lengthy medical suspension, I'd like to see the healthy one fight Pettis. Top fighters shouldn't be on the shelf for eight months.

January 2011 UFC Rankings

The rankings below are exclusively for the UFC, so you won't see names like Dan Henderson or Hiroyuki Takaya on these lists.

Heavyweight (206-265 lbs)

1. Cain Velasquez
2. Junior Dos Santos
3. Brock Lesnar
4. Shane Carwin
5. Roy Nelson
6. Frank Mir
7. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
8. Ben Rothwell
9. Brendan Schaub
10. Stefan Struve

Make it Happen: Lesnar vs. Rothwell

Casual fans don't know much about Ben Rothwell, but in the last 5½ years, he's 15-2, including wins over Roy Nelson, Ricco Rodriguez, and Gilbert Yvel. He's lost only to Cain Velasquez and Andrei Arlovski. He's a worthy opponent for Lesnar, and everyone else seems to be out of the question for one reason or another. By pitting Lesnar against Rothwell, the UFC either gains recognition for a talented fighter or puts Lesnar back on the road to a title. Win-win.

Thank You, UFC, For: Uh...

Honestly, nothing in this division particularly excites me right now. Velasquez's shoulder injury is a major bummer, as is Nelson's contract situation.

Light Heavyweight (186-205)

1. Mauricio "Shogun" Rua
2. Jon Jones
3. Lyoto Machida
4. Rashad Evans
5. Quinton "Rampage" Jackson
6. Ryan Bader
7. Thiago Silva
8. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
9. Forrest Griffin
10. Rich Franklin

Make it Happen: Jackson vs. winner of Jones/Bader

MMA Fighting reports that Randy Couture and Machida have verbally agreed to meet at UFC 129 on April 30 in Toronto, though it's "not even close" to being finalized yet. Since that takes a Machida/Jackson rematch off the table, Jackson should fight the winner of Jones/Bader, and the winner of that fight should get a title shot.

Thank You, UFC, For: Griffin vs. Franklin

Two big names who are probably a little past their primes but still relevant in the division. I'd love to see the victor face the winner of Couture/Machida.

Middleweight (171-185)

1. Anderson Silva
2. Chael Sonnen
3. Yushin Okami
4. Vitor Belfort
5. Demian Maia
6. Alan Belcher
7. Nate Marquardt
8. Wanderlei Silva
9. Michael Bisping
10. Jorge Rivera

Make it Happen: Wanderlei Silva vs. Marquardt

Two ferocious strikers trying to prove they're not done. This has Fight of the Night or Knockout of the Night written all over it. Brian Stann asked to fight Wanderlei after his win on Saturday night. It is time for middle-of-the-pack middleweights to stop calling out Wanderlei and Bisping. Every time someone wins a fight, he wants one of those two. It's played out, guys. Call out Alan Belcher or Sexyama or someone. Incidentally, Stann vs. Sexyama would probably be a really good fight. Line it up, Joe Silva.

Thank You, UFC, For: Okami's title shot

Brother has earned it. Don't renege, UFC.

Welterweight (156-170)

1. Georges St-Pierre
2. Jon Fitch
3. Jake Shields
4. Thiago Alves
5. B.J. Penn
6. Martin Kampmann
7. Carlos Condit
8. Josh Koscheck
9. Matt Hughes
10. Dong Hyun Kim

Make it Happen: Alves vs. Koscheck

The idea of Koscheck being punched by someone as powerful as Alves is really appealing.

Thank You, UFC, For: Kampmann vs. Diego Sanchez

I love this division. These are both exciting, well-rounded fighters. Sanchez looked terrific in his last fight, and Kampmann is a logical opponent as Diego tries to re-assert himself at 170.

Lightweight (146-155)

1. Frankie Edgar
2. Gray Maynard
3. Kenny Florian
4. George Sotiropoulos
5. Jim Miller
6. Evan Dunham
7. Sean Sherk
8. Anthony Pettis
9. Ben Henderson
10. Clay Guida

Make it Happen: Miller vs. Pettis

The match-making for top contenders in this division is baffling. Sotiropoulos, Miller, and Dunham all have fights scheduled against opponents who aren't anywhere near the top 10. Dennis Siver (Sotiropoulos) is okay, and I am looking forward to that matchup. Melvin Guillard (Dunham) is an injury replacement for Florian, so that's understandable, too. But Kamal Shalorus (Miller)? Shalorus is an outstanding wrestler with power in his hands, but giving him a top-10 opponent — and giving Miller a guy with no name recognition — is not the right thing to do. Here's an idea: in wake of the draw at UFC 125, find a new opponent for Shalorus and let Miller fight Anthony Pettis, winner gets a title shot.

Thank You, UFC, For: Edgar vs. Maynard III

I think Edgar will win the rematch, but both men deserve a chance to decisively claim the belt. Edgar/Pettis would have been overshadowed by the draw at UFC 125 anyway.

Featherweight (136-145)

1. Jose Aldo
2. Manny Gamburyan
3. Mark Hominick
4. Diego Nuñes
5. Mike Brown
6. Michihiro Omigawa
7. Dustin Poirier
8. Josh Grispi
9. Raphael Assuncao
10. Chad Mendes

Make it Happen: Nuñes vs. winner of Omigawa/Mendes

This division turned upside down when Brown and Grispi both lost on January 1. Matchmaking at the top has gotten tricky, but this seems like a good fight to determine Aldo's next opponent. Omigawa has won five in a row and Mendes is undefeated, while the 16-1 Nuñes is coming off a win over former champ Mike Thomas Brown.

Thank You, UFC, For: Hominick vs. George Roop

Roop, the TUF 8 alum, looks much better at 145 than he did at lightweight, and is a decent opponent for Hominick.

Bantamweight (126-135)

1. Dominick Cruz
2. Urijah Faber
3. Joseph Benavidez
4. Brian Bowles
5. Miguel Torres
6. Scott Jorgensen
7. Eddie Wineland
8. Antonio Banuelos
9. Brad Pickett
10. Demetrious Johnson

Make it Happen: Pickett vs. Takeya Mizugaki

Mizugaki is a former title contender, coming off a scary submission loss to Faber. This is Pickett's chance to prove he's for real against a recognizable opponent, and Mizugaki's opportunity to jump back into the top 10.

Thank You, UFC, For: everything.

I love this division. It's new to the UFC, but it's already stacked. We've got Faber vs. Wineland, Torres vs. Banuelos, Bowles and Damacio Page, Demetrious Johnson fighting Norifumi "Kid" Yamamoto — that's a lot to like.

UFC 125 and 126

The Edgar/Maynard contest, which was a spectacular fight in addition to the controversy, overshadowed the rest of the card. Troubled brawler Chris Leben, recently cited for DUI, got knocked out by Brian Stann, though I'm not buying the latter's hype as a serious contender at 185. I just don't believe he has any kind of ground game. More intriguing were the wins by Thiago Silva, Dong Hyun Kim, and Clay Guida.

Silva destroyed Brandon Vera, who has lost three in a row. I can't believe Vera was on a main card again. Dude hasn't had a significant win in like three years. The UFC seems to like him, though. His next fight will probably be for the belt. Kim won an unpopular decision over Nate Diaz, showcasing superb grappling and submission defense. He's a factor at 170. Guida was once a 1,000-mph blanket, a wrestler with unbelievable cardio and few other applicable skills. He's now finished three straight fights, with two subs and an injury stoppage. If Guida has complemented his frenetic pace with a well-rounded game, he could become more than a gatekeeper at 155.

Looking ahead to UFC: Fight for the Troops 2 (January 22) and UFC 126 (February 5), there are six fights that merit particular attention, most obviously the February headliner between Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort, with the middleweight title on the line. Belfort hasn't fought in more than a year, and he's never fought at middleweight. Silva hasn't looked really impressive in ages. It's an intriguing matchup, as long as Silva decides not to pull his Kalib Starnes routine again, but almost impossible to predict. I guess I'd lean toward Silva.

At light heavyweight, elder statesmen face off when Forrest Griffin meets Rich Franklin. The winner likely edges into the 205-lb. title picture for one last run at a belt, while the loser becomes a high-profile gatekeeper and gets fed to Phil Davis. I'll take Franklin in a small upset. If Griffin/Franklin showcases the UFC's past, Jon Jones vs. Ryan Bader, at the same event, highlights its future. Bader is undefeated, and Jones' only defeat is a disqualification in a fight he was dominating. They're the brightest young stars in the division, and the winner is a force to be reckoned with, presumably very close to a title shot. Don't bet against Jones.

Meanwhile, Dunham tries to stay on the right track against Guillard, Hominick tries to stay on the right track against Roop, and Torres meets Banuelos. Dunham and Hominick are probably two good wins each away from their own chances to fight for a belt, while Torres, the former champion, is angling for a return to glory, and possibly an eventual date with Urijah Faber. Altogether, it's a lot to look forward to. The introduction of the lighter weight classes, particularly the stacked 135-lb. division, is a really exciting development for UFC fans.

DREAM, K-1, and K-1 World MAX Dynamite!! 2010

Ten thoughts on an exciting card:

1. Alistair Overeem may have just completed the greatest year in history for a combat sports athlete. He captured one kickboxing title (K-1) and two MMA belts (Strikeforce and DREAM), and he looked amazing in doing so. I know UFC devotees and Fëdor worshippers will get huffed up over this, but I believe Overeem is probably one of the top two heavyweights on the planet, along with Cain Velasquez. Yeah, Todd Duffee and Brett Rogers aren't exactly the toughest competition in the world, but Overeem just destroys people. He's for real.

2. Karma caught up to Shinya Aoki. In a bizarre fight with rounds alternating between kickboxing rules and MMA rules, Aoki made a mockery of the first round, stalling it out, then got knocked out by a knee four seconds into the next round. This could also be cosmic payback for breaking Mizuto Hirota's arm and then giving him the finger.

3. Frank Trigg and Michael Schiavello bet on the outcome of the fight, and when Aoki lost, Trigg was obligated to wear a pink wig and lipstick. The wig actually looked okay. The lipstick, not so much. He planted at least two kisses on Schiavello, who had visible lipstick marks on his right cheek and the top of his bald head. I am not making this up.

4. Kazushi Sakuraba's match ended prematurely when one of his ears fell off. His cauliflower ear bloodied badly and then partially detached from his head, forcing a halt to the bout. Sakuraba is a legend, with nothing left to prove. I wish he would retire. HDNet's translator interpreted his post-fight apology to the fans for such a short (2:16) bout, "Sorry, my ear came off..."

5. Ikuhisa Minowa is not a serious contender. Minowaman has dropped two of his last three fights, and although both were to larger opponents, he seems doomed to go the way of Sakuraba, though hopefully with both ears fully intact. When Minowaman won the 2009 Super Hulk Grand Prix, he defeated Bob Sapp, Hong Man Choi, and Sokoudjou. Minowa is great in freak shows and mismatches, but he can't consistently handle top competition.

6. I know I say this every time I write about Japanese MMA, but I love Lenne Hardt, the Crazy PRIDE Lady who handles introductions at major Japanese MMA events. Japanese ring entrances are so much more fun than in the UFC.

7. Hiroyuki Takaya won his rematch against Bibiano Fernandes with surprising ease, capturing the DREAM featherweight title. Takaya has reeled off knockout wins against Joachim Hansen and Chase Beebe, and a unanimous decision against Fernandes. He's got a decent case to make as the best bantamweight in the world. I wouldn't bet on him against Dominick Cruz or Urijah Faber, but either one would be a hell of a fight.

8. Satoshi Ishii's MMA career got off to a rocky start when he lost a unanimous decision to Hidehiko Yoshida last New Year's Eve. Since then, the Olympic gold medalist in judo is 4-0, with decisions over Minowaman and Jerome Le Banner, and two stoppages. He's a really interesting prospect if DREAM can find appropriate competition for him.

9. I wish Bellator, Strikeforce, and the UFC used something like the yellow card system. Discouraging stalling is a good thing.

10. Dynamite!! was a great way to ring in the new year, a really appealing mix of fun mismatches and top-tier competition, with competent judging and reffing, few periods of inaction, and Lenne Hardt. Not trying to get all PRIDE-nostalgic on you, but a quality show for a struggling promotion. Happy New Year, MMA fans.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:48 PM | Comments (1)