The Atlantic Coast Conference has long been a hallmark conference in college basketball. With several historically renowned programs, and the basketball powerhouses of Duke and North Carolina, an argument can be easily made for it being the gold standard of college basketball since its inception in 1953. Its 12 national championships are second all-time behind the Pac-10's 13 (11 of which are UCLA's). The conference's 40 Final Fours are the most all-time. Yet, as of last week, the ACC had just one ranked team, normally an unthinkable phenomenon in most seasons approaching the holidays and conference play for everybody.
It helps that the one ranked ACC team is Duke, undefeated and undoubtedly presumptive favorites to repeat as national champions should Kyrie Irving return. Even in the specter of Irving possibly be out for the entire season, Duke has been a unanimous No. 1 in both polls for the last two weeks. Polls mean nothing in college basketball, unlike in college football. Yet, the polls are accurate in assessing that none of the other 11 ACC teams have shown themselves to be one of the best 25 in the nation.
By the numbers, one can look at all the records of ACC teams, and find that, as of Monday, all had records above .500 and the conference as a whole has won 70 percent of its non-conference games.
Such numbers are misleading. When looking at records at this point in the season, and especially in high-major conferences, one has to take account of guarantee games and lesser opponents a team may have played. Georgia Tech may have a 6-4 record, and beat a quality Richmond team Saturday, but also provided Kennesaw State with the Owls' only Division I win this season. The 70 percent non-conference winning percentage puts the ACC about 10 percent behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12, and even behind the Mountain West.
Coming into the season, the ACC was not expected to have its best year, but Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech were supposed to be a cut above the rest, with Florida State below the three, but still a quality team. Duke has obviously met expectations. Florida State is 9-2, but lost its two big tests against Florida and Ohio State. The Seminoles' other wins have come against middling or poor competition.
Virginia Tech and North Carolina have definitively deviated from expectations to a greater degree. The two teams appear to have contrasting problems. For Virginia Tech, the Hokies appear to be too reliant on star senior Malcolm Delaney, and especially against better opposition. Delaney shot 6-of-18 against Kansas State and 2-of-18 against Purdue, both in losing efforts. The offensive focus on Delaney has led to a drop in scoring from Hokie seniors Jeff Allen and Dorenzo Hudson.
North Carolina has had the opposite problem, one of being too deferential. Harrison Barnes, after being the nation's top-rated recruit a year ago, was assumed to be that player. He has struggled to say the least, shooting just 36% from the floor while leading the Tar Heels in minutes. Barnes was named a Preseason All-American before the season, an honor that looks criminally out of place now, but was bound to happen for a freshman somewhere along the line after the first year successes of players like Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, and John Wall. Barnes hardly looks ready to lead along the same lines that those three did.
Tyler Zeller has improved the most of anyone on North Carolina's roster, and could definitely lead the team. Zeller was dominant in North Carolina's one signature win so far this season against Kentucky. On Saturday, the Tar Heels went to Zeller in the big possessions, and the big man largely converted. However, the defense kept Texas in the game by failing to contain Jordan Hamilton and then couldn't make stops late.
North Carolina is in better shape than Virginia Tech. None of the Tar Heels' four losses looks especially bad, with the worst coming to Vanderbilt in the Puerto Rico tournament. Virginia Tech had a surprising home loss to Virginia in both teams' conference opener. Virginia has been erratic this season, winning at Minnesota, but losing by a combined 65 points to Stanford and Washington.
By talent, North Carolina and Virginia Tech are still two of the top three teams in the ACC. Their accomplishments so far are not indicative of what the second and third best team in the ACC would have usually produced by this time in the season.
Most of the rest of the conference that I have not yet touched upon falls in a general classification of "no or few bad losses, but little or no good wins."
Boston College is perhaps the one pleasant surprise in the ACC. America got to see what a gifted coach Steve Donahue was as he guided Cornell to the Sweet 16 last year. In his short time so far at BC, the Eagles have knocked off Texas A&M, Cal, and won at Maryland in the conference opener. Despite an early loss to Yale, BC has a top 15 RPI, at the stage of the season when the RPI begins to hold water.
Maryland's Jordan Williams is trying his best to fill the scoring void left by Greivis Vasquez, but the graduation of role players from last year like Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne may have been nearly as costly. Maryland's best win to date is probably a one-point win over College of Charleston.
Clemson is transitioning to a new and very different system under first year coach Brad Brownell, and has beaten just one team with a winning record.
Miami has a potentially solid team that could make noise in conference play. The Hurricanes beat West Virginia, but lost to Rutgers and Conference USA's two best teams to this point in Memphis and Central Florida.
Wake Forest is truly a bad team after being decimated by graduation and the draft. The Demon Deacons have lost to mid-majors like Stetson and UNC-Wilmington that aren't supposed to come anywhere close to winning their league.
NC State under Sidney Lowe always seems to have teams described as "talented" and "promising," but never make noise except for an occasional upset in conference play. Four times this season NC State has played quality opponents and four times the Wolfpack have lost, including a 39-point walloping at Wisconsin. Lowe's team has shot just 42.5 percent overall, and 33 percent from three.
Since expanding to 11 (and eventually to 12 teams) the ACC has averaged 5.5 NCAA tournament bids per season. This season teams in the conference failing to take advantage of opportunities for big non-conference wins. When combined with a conference season where (outside of Duke) teams are sure to hand each other several losses, that number of bids could be well-below average.
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