Five Quick Hits
* The NFL withdrew $10,000 in fines for Detroit guard Stephen Peterman, deciding the plays were legal. In the comments section of the article on NFL.com, Lions fan tbwr4 wrote, "Can we also get the Calvin Johnson touchdown in Week 1 to count?" Win.
* Indianapolis RT Ryan Diem was called for two more false starts on Sunday (at home!), bringing his season total to a league-worst 8. I think Diem really misses Ryan Lilja next to him. I don't know how else to explain such a sudden decline.
* Will somebody please take away Greg Gumbel's thesaurus? Before kickoff of the Colts/Jags game, Gumbel described the rivalry as "bitter and savage and brutal."
* Bottom five in time of possession: Titans (26:01), Cardinals (26:14), Seahawks (26:58), Panthers (27:49), Broncos (28:04). That figure for the Titans amazes me. To average an 8-minute TOP deficit is mind-boggling, and to rank behind the Panthers in an offensive category is hard to even believe.
* This "America's Game of the Week" nonsense has got to stop. First of all, NBC and FOX can't both have the game of the week. 'Game' is singular — there's only one. It's stupid for NBC, but it's absurd for FOX. Half the country is watching a different game, kids. Does Kansas City not count as America any more? What's the point of this, anyway? Do you think more people will watch if you call it "America's Game of the Week" 3,000 times? Like, "Oh, I was going to watch videos on YouTube, but if it's America's Game of the Week, I'd better watch this, instead." Come on.
***
Four teams have outscored their opponents by at least 100 points this season: the Patriots (+139), Chargers (+128), Packers (+117), and Falcons (+108). That's the two best teams in the league, and another two that might miss the playoffs. Both San Diego and Green Bay still could get in, but either way, they're better than most of the teams that will play this postseason. Has anyone played better the last two weeks than San Diego? Not that I can see. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Packers might have beaten New England on Sunday night. Is Green Bay the best team in the NFL? The team can make its case in crucial Week 16 and 17 matchups with the Giants and Bears.
Brackets indicate previous rank.
1. New England Patriots [1] — Compared to the Packers, they had fewer yards (369-249) and first downs (26-14), lower third down percentage (57-40), more penalties (7-2), and a huge deficit in time of possession (40:48-19:12). But they returned an interception for a touchdown, made the most of their red zone opportunities, and benefitted from Green Bay's multiple dropped interceptions. Vince Wilfork was quieter in the second half, but he had a huge game. Speaking of huge, that man is the size of a house. I'll name my all-pro team in a couple weeks; Haloti Ngata and Wilfork are probably the front-runners among interior defensive linemen. Also in the running: Ndamukong Suh (DET) and Tommy Kelly (OAK). A couple other guys could win me over with impact games in the final two weeks, but those are the four I'm most interested in.
2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — Eight consecutive victories, including three straight on the road. A win in either of the final two games would clinch homefield advantage in the NFC. A couple weeks ago, I noted that DB Brent Grimes "was credited with 6 passes defensed against Tampa Bay, one of the highest single-game marks I've ever seen." This week against Seattle, Grimes knocked down another 5 passes. He now leads the NFL in passes defensed (27).
3. Philadelphia Eagles [3] — Effectively clinched the NFC East with their incredible comeback in Week 15. If the Eagles win either of their last two games, or the Giants lose either of their remaining two, Philadelphia takes the division. Down 31-10 with half a quarter left, the Eagles engineered a remarkable comeback, including QB scrambles, an onside kick, and a last-second punt return TD, to win 38-31. I don't have a problem calling this the Miracle at the New Meadowlands, but the people claiming it was greater than the original, I think, undersell just how improbable Philly's 1978 last-second victory was. Twenty-five years from now, more people will remember the original than this one.
Sunday was Michael Vick's 10th career 100-yard rushing game. Randall Cunningham, Bobby Douglass, and Donovan McNabb are tied for second among QBs, with three each. A couple years ago, I made a list of the greatest pass/run double-threats in NFL history. I'm not sure yet how we should evaluate Vick's passing, but he's clearly the greatest running QB in history.
4. Baltimore Ravens [5] — Ray Rice rushed for 153 yards, with another 80 receiving, 233 total yards and 2 TDs. The rest of the Ravens combined for a total of 118 yards, about half as many as Rice. The win moved Baltimore into a tie for the AFC North lead and probably guaranteed at least a wild card. The remaining games are against division rivals Cincinnati and Cleveland, who have a combined record of 8-20, which includes wins over each other.
5. San Diego Chargers [8] — Good news for the Chargers' playoff hopes: their remaining games are against the Bengals and Broncos, perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL. Bad news for the Chargers' playoff hopes: both games are on the road, where San Diego is 2-4. Vincent Jackson finally returned to the lineup, and did so with a bang, going over 100 yards and scoring 3 touchdowns (a career high). I don't want to be one of those people whining about how A.J. Smith destroyed the Chargers' season, and San Diego's biggest problem has been special teams, not offense, but the Chargers are 6-3 since Marcus McNeill rejoined them, after starting 2-3 without him.
6. Green Bay Packers [7] — Mike McCarthy lost his nerve. How do you go from a daring game-opening onside kick to a meek-as-can-be field goal from the 1-yard line? It's the fourth quarter, 13:52 left in the game, and you're up 24-21 with 4th-and-goal at the 1, facing the Patriots. Go for it. For the love of pete, go for it. League-wide fourth down percentage in 2010 is 50.7% — there's a better than even chance you'll get in. If you do, you're up 10. Even if you fall short, New England takes over at the 1-yard line, and you have a great chance of getting the ball back with favorable field position. Cowardly call, a four-point swing. The Packers lost by four, 31-27.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers [4] — Missing Troy Polamalu, they allowed 22 points to a team that had scored a total of 16 in its previous two games. People talk about Ben Roethlisberger as an elite quarterback, but Polamalu is the most valuable player on the team. Big Ben is a very good quarterback, but he's in that second tier, not elite. I don't understand, when Rashard Mendenhall is having a good day (100 yards, 5.9 average, TD) and Ben is not (78.2 rating, 3 sacks), why you pass 49 times and run 23. For as long as this team has won anything, it has won with running and defense. While Roethlisberger was suspended, the Steelers went 3-1 (.750) against opponents who are 36-20 (.643). Since Ben returned, they're 7-3 (.700) against an easier schedule, 71-69 (.507). Ben is a better QB than Charlie Batch, but the Steelers have a better chance to win with Batch and a 50:50 run-pass ratio than Ben and twice as many passes as runs.
8. New Orleans Saints [6] — Faced a team with a winning record for the first time since Halloween, and snapped a six-game win streak. Missing Chris Ivory, the Saints rushed for just 27 yards, their lowest total since 2003. Reggie Bush carried four times for -4 yards, though he did catch 7 passes for 36. Ivory is the only RB on the team to run effectively this season, and the club needs him healthy for the playoffs. Ivory averages 5.3 yards per carry, far more than Julius Jones (4.3), Ladell Betts (3.3), Pierre Thomas (3.2), and Bush (3.1).
9. New York Giants [9] — Punter Matt Dodge has been a target of criticism all season, but it may have reached a boil with his game-turning punt to DeSean Jackson in the final seconds of this week's contest. For the season, Dodge is 31st in net average. He's had one kick blocked, two returned for touchdowns, and is one of only four punters with more touchbacks than fair catches. Dodge has been awful all season, and his poor play could keep the Giants out of the playoffs.
10. Chicago Bears [10] — Looked great on an icy field against the deflated Vikings. This worries me: Chicago's offense ranks 30th in a 32-team league. The Bears average fewer yards per game (292) than the Browns, 100 per game fewer than the Chargers and Eagles. They're 28th in 3rd down percentage (32.9). The Bears actually have the fewest combined third and fourth down conversions in the NFL. The defense and special teams are fantastic, and the offense isn't giving games away, but in the playoffs, I don't know if it will be enough.
11. Dallas Cowboys [12] — Fourth straight game decided by 3 points. Since the bye, eight of the Cowboys' 11 opponents have scored at least 30 points. Washington became the third team this season to score a season-high facing the Dallas defense. This has to be an offseason priority. The Cowboys could use a little help on the offensive line, but other than that the offense is great — Jason Witten is having an all-pro quality season. The defense needs work.
12. New York Jets [18] — Last year, the Jets lost a game to the Dolphins because of atrocious special teams. This season, the Jets's special teams are among the league's best, Nick Folk notwithstanding. Consider this week's win over Pittsburgh. The Steelers had 100 more yards and 50% more first downs. But the Jets had a kickoff return TD, and Steve Weatherford's punting led to great field position and a safety. His first punt actually was rather poor, a 32-yard net. The other three were all downed inside the 10.
13. Indianapolis Colts [14] — This week, Peyton Manning became the sixth player to complete 400 passes in a season. He's now at 407, and likely to break the record (440), set by Drew Brees in 2007. This is not a good thing. Defenses have taken away everything deep, and Manning's gotten so used to checking down that I think he's come to accept it, and the team's offense has become less explosive. Of course, injuries to the receiving corps play a role in that, too. Austin Collie suffered his second concussion of the season this week, a scary knockout that had him lying facedown on the field.
14. Kansas City Chiefs [16] — The Chiefs are undefeated at home, six down, two to go. If they win those last two, they'll win the AFC West. Three Chiefs had big defensive games this week. Derrick Johnson, quietly having a very good season, knocked down three passes and was in on 13 tackles. Kendrick Lewis intercepted two passes, and someone named Wallace Gilberry had three sacks and forced a fumble. Gilberry apparently is a third-year defensive end, undrafted out of Alabama in 2008.
15. Jacksonville Jaguars [11] — Daryl Smith's line against Indianapolis: 13 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 pass defensed. That's quite a game. Unfortunately, most of his teammates didn't show up. The Jags can still make the playoffs; they're actually tied with Indianapolis for the division lead, and could move into sole possession of first if the Colts (who are 3-4 on the road) lose at Oakland (5-2 at home).
16. Oakland Raiders [13] — Gained more than twice as many yards as Denver (502-235), and twice as many first downs (20-9). It's not going to happen, but Oakland mathematically could still win the AFC West. If the Raiders win both remaining games, the Chiefs lose in Week 16, and the Chargers lose either of their remaining games, the Silver and Black will qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2002. He won't get many Coach of the Year votes, but Tom Cable has done a phenomenal job rebuilding this team.
17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [15] — Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount played well, but the Bucs settled for a pair of late field goals and didn't play defense, losing in overtime to Detroit. Tampa is 1-3 in the last month, and would be 0-4 if Washington weren't so good at finding ways to lose. If Tampa edges the Giants and Packers for a wild card spot, I am boycotting the first round of the NFC playoffs. The Saints against whoever wins the NFC West, and Tampa playing at Chicago or Philly? The Pro Bowl is more competitive.
18. Buffalo Bills [22] — Before the bye, Buffalo's opponents averaged 32.2 points. Since, that average is just 21.3. In fact, since Week 8, it's 19.4, which is top-10 level defense. Some of that is a statistical illusion created by the schedule (tough opponents early, Browns and Dolphins late), but some of it is genuine improvement. Buffalo looks suspiciously like an average team the last two months.
19. Miami Dolphins [17] — 31st in scoring. The Dolphins have 22 TDs this year. Carolina has 16, and everyone else has at least 25. This week, Miami couldn't get field goals, either. Dan Carpenter probably lost an all-pro spot with his 0/4 performance, even though all the attempts were at least 48 yards. The Dolphins are 1-6 at home, but 6-1 on the road, one of the most remarkable splits you will ever see.
20. Detroit Lions [25] — First road win since October 2007. Is Calvin Johnson the best wide receiver in the NFL? No, of course not. It's Andre Johnson or Roddy White. But those guys have good quarterbacks, and defenders actually have to cover other players on the team. Megatron is Detroit's only weapon on offense. Defenses know it, and they still can't stop him. If the Lions stay healthy, they'll go 8-8 next season.
21. Tennessee Titans [28] — Broke a six-game losing streak, with good games from both the offense and defense. Jason Babin is 2nd in the AFC with 12 sacks. He deserves serious all-pro consideration, and it will be a travesty if he doesn't make the Pro Bowl. Chris Johnson update: CJ2K now has 1,267 rushing yards. He can meet his goal of 2,500 if he averages 617 over the last two weeks.
22. San Francisco 49ers [19] — No amount of officiating was going to turn a 34-7 loss into a win, but a number of big calls hurt the 49ers. A replay challenge reversed Alex Smith's touchdown, and on the next play, San Francisco turned the ball over on downs. Justin Smith got ejected for pushing the umpire. Tarell Brown, and this was the one really bad call, got a 15-yard penalty for a late hit that looked clean. A facemask penalty nullified a return TD. The 49ers were only flagged for one more penalty (5) than the Chargers (4), but they were big calls, not delay of game.
That said, San Francisco would have lost this game no matter who was reffing. Both the offense and defense played poorly, but let's assign plenty of blame to the coaching staff. Philip Rivers posted a 150.5 passer rating against the Niners, partly because they never figured out how to cover Vincent Jackson. Hey guys, I think you need to make an adjustment. This dude is killing you. The offensive play-calling stinks. You have got the put the ball in the hands of your offensive playmakers, guys like Vernon Davis and Brian Westbrook. It never happened. They were never going to beat San Diego, but what a disappointing performance.
23. Houston Texans [20] — With their two best defensive players (Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans) on IR, things have just fallen apart. Houston is 1-7 since the bye, and has allowed at least 29 points in all seven losses. In Week 16, we'll see if they can make Tim Tebow look good. The bet here is yes.
24. Minnesota Vikings [21] — Punter Chris "Nostradamus" Kluwe, this Sunday: "The field is as hard as concrete an hour and a half after they took the tarp off, and anyone that hits their head is getting a concussion." Two players suffered concussions before halftime. A terrific crowd showed up for the Vikings' first outdoor home game since 1981, but I wonder which team really had the homefield advantage. Minnesota had the crowd, but was clearly thrown off by the icy playing surface. Chicago, used to playing outdoors in bad weather, seemed to handle the conditions far better.
25. Cleveland Browns [23] — Lost the battle of Ohio to their cross-state rivals, ending Cincinnati's remarkable 10-game skid. The Browns' defense has improved this year, but the offense still stinks. They need linemen and receivers. A couple years ago, they had Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr.
26. St. Louis Rams [24] — Lost the battle of Missouri to their cross-state rivals. The Rams are 2-4 since the bye, with their only wins over Arizona and Denver.
27. Seattle Seahawks [26] — Lead the NFC West on tie-breakers, at least for now. As a division, the NFC West is 12-26 (.316) against the rest of the NFL, and has been outscored by a total of 300 points, an average of 7.9 per game. The Seahawks specifically are below average at basically every position. There's nothing they're good at, and nowhere they don't need help.
28. Washington Redskins [27] — Rex Grossman should not be starting for an NFL team. Bears fans became so used to his inconsistency that they used the terms "Good Rex" and "Bad Rex" to describe his play. Facing the 31st-ranked scoring defense in the NFL, Grossman looked okay this week, but it still wasn't pretty. The team's offense has been terrible this season, mostly due to injuries and offensive line play. Mike Shanahan is using Donovan McNabb as a scapegoat. It's ugly and unprofessional, and it's ultimately going to backfire.
29. Cincinnati Bengals [31] — Won a game, lost T.O. That's a trade-off they'll take. This was Cincinnati's first win since September. Cedric Benson was the hero, with a season-high 150 rushing yards. Andre Caldwell led the Bengals in catches (4) and receiving yards (89).
30. Carolina Panthers [32] — Which is better, the Falcons' B-team, or the Panthers A-team? We may find out in Week 17. The Panthers beat Arizona this week, and will face Atlanta in Week 17, when the Falcons may rest their starters. Jonathan Stewart rushed for 137 yards and John Kasay kicked four field goals. The 41-year-old Kasay, in his 20th season, is having one of his best years. Kasay hasn't missed from under 40 yards, and a 55-yarder in Week 7 tied the second-longest field goal of his career.
31. Arizona Cardinals [29] — Started 3-2, but they're 1-8 since the bye, despite a schedule full of cupcakes. The Cardinals have lost to the Seahawks (twice), Vikings, 49ers, Rams, and Panthers, all of whom have losing records. This team won a playoff game last year.
32. Denver Broncos [30] — You play to win the game. Hello? Yes, Tim Tebow did okay on Sunday. But if he really wants to help the team, he should be playing safety. Denver's passing game, with Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd, is the one part of the team that has been above average this season. The running game ranks 29th and they have the worst defense in the NFL. Kyle Orton has looked like a top-10 quarterback this season. Replacing him with a guy who can't throw is cutting off your nose to spite your face.
December 22, 2010
Larry:
Is the NFL really going to let one of these teams in the playoffs?
NFC West Team W L T Pct PF PA
St. Louis Rams 6 8 0 .429 258 295
Seattle Seahawks 6 8 0 .429 279 363
San Francisco 49ers 5 9 0 .357 250 314
Arizona Cardinals 4 10 0 .286 255 370