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December 30, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 17

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

NY Giants @ Washington (+3)

With their playoff lives at stake, the Giants flopped in Green Bay, losing 45-17 to the Packers, as New York had 6 turnovers, including 4 Eli Manning interceptions. A win would have clinched a playoff spot; now the G-Men need a win over the Redskins and help in the form of a Bears win or tie over the Packers.

"Manning calls a team meeting after Matt Dodge's bonehead kick to DeSean Jackson last week," Tom Coughlin said. "Does this mean Dodge presides over the team meeting this week? With more performances like that from Eli, he better get used to empty media rooms. And empty media rooms are a lot like Manning-organized team meetings, in that in each case, no one seems to be listening."

The Redskins damaged the Jaguars playoff hopes with a 20-17 win in overtime, winning on Graham Gano's 31-yard field goal. Rex Grossman was erratic in the win, completing only 19-of-39 passes for 182 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception.

"Donovan McNabb can complain all he wants about his benching," Mike Shanahan said, "but Grossman held his own out there. Heck, his play reminded me of McNabb's — it was like a third-stringer's.

"Now, this NFL season has been defined by an array of body parts. From Brett Favre's penis, to Matt Cassel's appendix, to the feet of Rex Ryan's wife, anatomy has played a big role this season. Add to that Chris Cooley's hands, which, like Favre's package, have been ridiculed, and, like Cassel's appendix, are useless, and, like Mrs. Ryan's feet, are a real turn-off."

Albert Haynesworth has quit on his team and Shanahan has quit on McNabb, but the Redskins won't lay down for the Giants. The G-Men were stranded in Green Bay; they'll be stranded at home for the playoffs.

Washington wins, 26-24.

Jacksonville @ Houston (+2½)

David Garrard's overtime interception led to Graham Gano's 31-yard game-winning field goal, and the Jaguars fell 20-17 to the Redskins, dropping to 8-7. Still in the playoff hunt, Jacksonville needs a win at Houston and an Indianapolis loss to the Titans to clinch the AFC South crown.

"It took a miracle to beat the Texans the first time we played," Jack Del Rio said. "It may take more than that to punch our ticket to the playoffs. With that in mind, I can only tell my men to play like gladiators when I urge them to 'Unleash Hail Mary.'"

The Texans' 2-0 start has disintegrated into a 5-10 debacle, as Houston has failed to make the jump from a team with potential to actual playoff contender. Now last in the AFC South, the Texans will try to end a four-game losing streak and squelch the last remaining hope of a Jacksonville playoff birth.

"We're perpetually a team on the verge," Gary Kubiak said, "of being on the verge. Now I hear that Texans fans will converge, to rally in support of my firing. I think they're calling it a 'schlep rally.'"

Texans win, 31-24.

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-6)

The Bucs pummeled the Seahawks 38-15 last week, powered by a career-best 5 touchdown passes from Josh Freeman. Tampa improved to 9-6, ensuring a winning record, and can still clinch a wild card playoff spot with a win and lots of help.

"Usually," said Raheem Morris, "I don't need any help at all to get 'Buc wild.' Now, we're thankful that Freeman was available in the 2009 draft. We could have had our choice of Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez, but we weren't convinced either could shoulder the load of our expectations, or NFL tacklers. In hindsight, it doesn't take a blind man to see that we got the right one, baby.

"Now, it's quite humbling to smash the Seahawks, only to find out that they can win the NFC West with a victory this week and a 7-9 record. Many say a team that wins a division with a losing record should not host a home playoff game. Well, rules are rules, and the rules say the division winner gets a home game. It all makes sense when you consider that their coach is Pete Carroll, who's been known to stretch the rules."

The Saints clinched a playoff berth with a 17-14 victory over the Falcons on Monday night, and could still capture the NFC South and the conference's no. 1 seed if they beat the Bucs and Atlanta loses to Carolina.

"I don't see the Panthers beating the Falcons," said Sean Payton, "So we may have to be content with the no. 5 seed. And who wouldn't be content with the No. 5 seed? Sure, the No. 1 seed is rewarded with a bye week, but the No. 5 seed is rewarded with a trip to St. Louis or Seattle, where, judging by the state of the NFC West, we'll be saying 'bye' to a weak team."

Freeman throws for 2 scores and runs for another, and the Bucs beat the uninspired Saints, 27-21.

Cincinnati @ Baltimore (-9½)

The Ravens won 20-10 in Cleveland as Ed Reed intercepted Colt McCoy twice on a frigid day in Cleveland Stadium. Baltimore will at worst be the AFC's No. 5 seed, and can still win the AFC North win a win over the Bengals and a Pittsburgh loss at Cleveland.

"You've probably seen the highlight," said Reed, "of my jacket catching fire when I got too close to a sideline heater in Cleveland. It's a little-known fact that I was a 'lit' major at the 'U.' Conventional wisdom says you normally don't need a heater to have a Raven defensive back burned. But that's why my position is called 'safety,' because I'm the one who puts out fires."

Cincinnati has won two in a row following a disastrous 10-game losing streak. Last week, Carson Palmer had a career day, throwing 4 touchdown passes and posting a quarterback rating of 157.2, just short of the highest possible rating of 158.3. The Bengals, who beat Baltimore in Week 2, will go for the season sweep against the playoff-bound Ravens.

"Usually," said Palmer, "when the word 'perfect' is used to describe me, it's preceded by 'far from.' We've proved we can win without Terrell Owens, and that we can win without Chad Ochocinco. Now, my favorite VH1 reality show is the T.Ocho No Show. Apparently, receivers without their own reality shows make much better teammates. Just ask any other quarterback in the league. Until my near-perfect day against the Chargers, I felt almost certain that we would have proved next year that we could win without me."

The Ravens take an early 3-0 lead against the Bengals, and keep a keen eye on the Steelers/Browns score, until the Steelers take a 14-0 lead seven minutes in. There will be no bye week for the Ravens, but they do earn a bye half, as many of the Ravens sit for much of the second half against Cincy.

Bengals win, 24-17.

Carolina @ Atlanta (-14½)

After losing to the Saints last Monday 17-14, the Falcons will have to wait a week to secure the NFC South crown and the NFC's No. 1 seed, assuming they beat the 2-13 Panthers. Barring a shocking upset by the Panthers, the Falcons will enjoy a bye week before hosting the lowest remaining seed after the wild card round.

"Actually," said Roddy White, "we'll likely have that bye week clinched by the end of the first quarter. Suffice it to say the Panthers won't be taking pictures at midfield at the Georgia Dome. Heck, they probably won't even be crossing midfield."

The Panthers were outmanned 27-3 at Pittsburgh last Thursday, and their 2-13 record has clinched the top pick in April's draft. Jimmy Clausen was 10-for-23 for 72 yards and 1 interception.

"So, it is true," John Fox said. "You can win for losing. Who says I haven't done anything good for this team lately? Obviously, the 'help wanted' signs posted around our complex apply to more than just the quarterback position."

Atlanta wins, 31-10.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (+6)

The Steelers blasted the Panthers 27-3 last Thursday and can clinch the AFC North and the No. 2 playoff seed with a win in Cleveland. Pittsburgh has enjoyed 10 days off since hammering Carolina, and would benefit from a long two-week layoff should they, as expected, defeat the Browns.

"There are those that claim a bye week robs a team of momentum," said Ben Roethlisberger, "and therefore is a hindrance to a playoff team. That's utter nonsense. That extra week is vital. If a teammate questions the virtues of the bye week, I respond with one of my favorite pickup lines: 'you know you want it.'

"This team lives and dies by the presence of Troy Polamalu. When he plays, we win. When he doesn't, we lose. We're a more cohesive unit with him, which is why we like to call him 'Hair Gel.'"

Steelers jump on the Browns early, and seal the NFC North title with a 27-10 win.

Minnesota @ Detroit (-3)

The Vikings have had two straight games postponed because of snow, including last week's 24-14 win over the Eagles, which was played on Tuesday. Minnesota second trip to Ford Field in three weeks, this time as an away game, will likely be Brett Favre's last game in the NFL.

"The NFL's had to alter its schedule quite a bit lately because of the weather," Favre said. "There hasn't been this much snow falling from the sky since Nate Newton welcomed a shipment from Colombia back in his heyday as the NFL's drug czar.

"Finally, the NFL has come to a decision on the Jenn Sterger situation, which I like to call the 'Fall Out From the Hang Out,' or the 'Testes Message.' It appears I'll only be fined and won't face a suspension. $50,000 seems fair; that's approximately 10 grand per inch."

The Lions can close the year with a four-game winning streak should they beat the Vikings. Detroit's 34-27 win over the Dolphins gave them their first three-game winning streak since 2007, and a win Sunday would take them out of the NFC North cellar.

"Four in a row!?" said Jim Schwartz. "I could be mistaken, but I believe that matches Matt Millen's record, for consecutive No. 1 picks. But climbing out from last place is a big deal for us. That's more than enough to get us fired up. That's why some call us 'bottom feeders.'"

Lions win, 28-22.

Dallas @ Philadelphia (-7)

The Eagles clinched the NFC East last Sunday, when the Giants lost to the Packers. After Tuesday's 24-14 loss to the Vikings, Philly lost any chance to earn a playoff bye, and is locked into the No. 3 slot for the postseason.

"As the last 10 days have proven," said Michael Vick, "Eagles can fly, and they can also lay eggs. But New York has certainly been in a giving mood lately. They are called the 'Giants,' so it makes perfect sense to laud them for their 'large-ese.'

"The same goes for the Cowboys. Like the Giants, they bore witness to the great DeSean Jackson making a huge, game-changing play. And likewise, they also saw DeSean perform his signature move, the 'DeTour' to the end zone before scoring."

The Cowboys disappointing season continued with a 27-26 loss at Arizona on Christmas night, a defeat made possible by a missed extra point by kicker David Buehler after Stephen McGee found Miles Austin for a 37-yard score to put the Cowboys up by 2.

"That was a tough loss to swallow," said Jerry Jones. "Obviously, this team still needs work, and so do I, on my gag reflex. When the names 'David Buehler' and 'Stephen McGee' are mentioned as instrumental in the outcome of a game, you know this franchise is struggling.

"Now, I hear Vick says he would like to own a dog again. I'm sure if dogs could talk, they would object. And if they had opposable thumbs, I'm sure they'd toss a number a red challenge flags."

Vick sits, as do a number of other Eagle starters. Dallas wins ,30-17.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-4)

Kansas City celebrated its first AFC West title in seven years after a win over the Titans and a Chargers loss at Cincinnati clinched the division for the Chiefs. Matt Cassel tossed 3 touchdowns, and the Chiefs held the Titans to 13 first downs. Kansas City can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win over the Raiders, which would avenge a Week 9 loss.

"I can't say enough about Cassel's performance," Todd Haley said. "Just a few weeks ago, he was lying semi-conscious on a table, with a stranger probing his insides. It's an uncomfortable feeling for anyone, such as female acquaintances of Sebastian Janikowski, or a quarterback in the middle of a division race. But he's come out of it a better, stronger quarterback, albeit with a feeling of being violated."

Chiefs win, 26-20.

Tennessee @ Indianapolis (-8½)

The Colts won their third straight game, taking a hard-fought 31-26 win in Oakland behind Peyton Manning's three touchdown passes and a solid ground game that piled up 198 yards. Manning collected 27 of those yards on a game-clinching bootleg run, the second longest rush of his career. Indy can clinch the AFC South title with a win over the Titans or a Jaguars loss in Houston.

"If you saw my run," Manning said, "you saw me find a new gear, one that took me from 'running in cement' to 'walking on sunshine.' That kind of speed can't be taught; it can only be inherited."

Tennessee has lost seven of its last eight games, including a Week 14 loss to the Colts. The acquisition of Randy Moss has been a disaster, as the enigmatic Moss has only 5 catches in 7 games as a Titan.

"Well, it seems that both Randy and this team came out of the deal 'empty-handed," said Chris Johnson. "Randy's the 'Music City Mirage,' the 'Music City Mistake,' and the 'Music City Miscue' all rolled into one. But it is a miracle that he's still on this team.

"The Titans without Jeff Fisher is a lot like Randy Moss without a catch. It's hard to imagine, but apparently possible."

Manning throws for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Colts roll, 31-17.

Buffalo @ NY Jets (-1)

The Jets lost 38-34 in Chicago, but clinched a playoff berth when the Jaguars fell to the Redskins. New York currently holds the No. 6 playoff position, but could take the No. 5 spot with a Ravens win over the Bengals and a Steelers loss to the Browns.

"The No. 6 seed it is, then," said Rex Ryan. "We may be the AFC's lowest seeded team, but I refuse to concede that there are five teams better than us. I'm no one's bootlicker; well, almost no one's. But we refuse to be a mere footnote to the NFL season. And we won't curl up and die for anyone. You won't find us in the fetal position. However, you may find me in the 'feet-al' position."

The Bills are 4-11 after last week's 34-3 loss to the Patriots, last in the AFC East. The Patriot defense forced 5 Ryan Fitzpatrick turnovers, and with a top-five pick in the 2011 NFL draft, the Bills' front office will be evaluating available quarterbacks.

"After all," said Chan Gailey, "we need someone to get the ball to Steve Johnson. If God can't keep him happy, maybe a quarterback will. But Johnson and Ryan will be the key players in the 'Tweets and Feets' game.' I think the last time religion and feet crossed paths, it was in John 13: 1-17."

Jets win, 24-21.

Chicago @ Green Bay (-10)

The Bears have clinched the NFC North title, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are the North's most dangerous team. That distinction may belong to the Packers, who looked unstoppable in last week's 45-17 win over the Giants. Aaron Rodgers returned from a concussion suffered against the Lions two weeks ago to throw for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns.

"I've got a lingering headache," said Rodgers. "So do the Giants; it's called 'Eli Manning.' As for the Bears, we've got revenge on our minds. Their defense seems to have disappeared at the most inopportune time — just in time for the playoffs. Unlike Brett Favre, though, there will be no 'find.'"

Packers win, 30-23.

Miami @ New England (-1½)

The Patriots squared away home field throughout the playoffs, manhandling the Bills 34-3 in Buffalo last Sunday. Tom Brady tossed 3 touchdown passes and broke Bernie Kosar's NFL record of 308 consecutive passes without an interception. Brady's streak is now at 319, a mark he'll look to extend when the Pats host the Dolphins.

"Hey, I never miss a chance to compare myself to Patriot legend Zeke Mowatt," Brady said. "Like Mowatt, I've been blessed with an impressive appendage. Mine happens to be my right arm. They call me the 'Patriot 'Ile,' because I never 'miss.'"

The Dolphins could finish with an 8-8 record with a win in New England. The good news? Miami is 6-1 on the road, and the Pats have nothing for which to play. The bad news? New England is 7-0 at home, Tom Brady is the quarterback, Bill Belichick is the coach, Randy Moss is not a Patriot, and the Patriots always have a reason to play.

New England wins, 24-20.

St. Louis @ Seattle (+1½)

The 6-9 Seahawks host the 8-7 Rams at Qwest Field, with the winner awarded the NFC West crown and a home playoff game against the NFC's No. 5 seed next week. Last week, Seattle lost 38-15 to the Buccaneers, but with a win Sunday, would become the first team to win a division title with a losing record.

"I hear there's been much debate this year," said Pete Carroll, "over the worthiness of the NFC West champ getting a home playoff game. That's news to me. On the contrary, it seems that everywhere I go, people are adamant that the West winner should 'stay home.' People can criticize all they want, and that's fine, but our motto for the game is win, and you're in(ferior)."

The Rams have gone from a 1-15 record last year to the cusp of the playoffs, all under the guidance of Steve Spagnuolo. St. Louis moved one step closer to the West crown with a 25-17 last week over the 49ers.

"I understand the Seahawks are starting Charlie Whitehurst," said Spagnuolo, "because Matt Hasselbeck hurt himself running for a touchdown without getting touched. If Seattle beats us Sunday and wins the West with a 7-9 record, I guess there will be more than one reason to call them 'paper champions.'"

Rams win, 23-19.

Arizona @ San Francisco (-6½)

A 25-17 loss to the Rams knocked the 5-10 49ers from playoff contention, mercifully, and cost Mike Singletary his job, finally. Singletary was replaced by defensive coordinator Jim Tomsula, temporarily.

"I knew Mike was in trouble," said Tomsula, "when they started referring to us as the 'San Francisco Four and Niners.' But let's hear it for Singletary. He left honorably, with a sincere farewell press conference, delivered not by 'Samurai' Mike, but by 'Sayonara' Mike."

49ers win, 27-17.

San Diego @ Denver (+3½)

The NFL's regular season comes to an end in Denver, where the Chargers face the Broncos at Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium, where the air is thin, and the playoff implications thinner. Last week, Tim Tebow passed for 308 yards and a touchdown, and added the game-winning score on a 6-yard run with 3:02 remaining to beat the Texans 24-23.

"Tebow had supporters before this breakout game," said Champ Bailey. "And he'll have more now. The former are called 'old testaments;' the latter are called 'new testaments.' But it's no surprise that Tim's second start is now being called the 'second coming.' He wears scripture under his eyes, making him the 'Eye-Black Sabbath.'"

San Diego fell flat in chilly Cincinnati last week, losing 34-20 to the Bengals and crashing out of playoff contention. Before the season, the Chargers were odds-on favorites to win the West, but a slow start, coupled with inconsistencies in all phases of the game did them in. It's an incomprehensible collapse for a team that leads the NFL in total defense and is second in total offense.

"There's no question of this team's ability to dominate," said Philip Rivers, "which has led us all to wonder what 'might' have been."

Denver wins, 24-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:30 PM | Comments (0)

On Food and Sports

Whenever I attend a live sporting event, I get a hot dog. No, I mean every time. The only exception is if I've already had a hot dog from that venue. This is the closest thing I have to a religious ritual. It doesn't matter if I'm at the Super Bowl or one of 20 people at a high school basketball game, munching store-bought hot dogs wrapped in Wonder bread.

The best hot dogs I have had at a game were at Cleveland Stadium, may she rest in peace. They came in foil packages so hot you could barely take the hot dogs out to dress them. I slathered them in stadium mustard — make that Stadium Mustard, a Cleveland institution, and the best mustard on the planet — and sauerkraut. This is how I take my hot dogs today, or with mustard alone if no sauerkraut is available. My only deviation is sometimes I add onions (cheese dogs/chili dogs are another category to me).

The worst sports hot dog I've ever had? I can't think of one. That's what makes hot dogs the ideal sports food. It's nearly impossible to screw up, and you can eat it with one hand, not taking your eyes off the action. The only bad hot dog I can recall getting was not sports-related ... it was at a Hardee's and it was not heated in any way.

The most interesting sports hot dog I have had was recently at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, where I saw the Stars defeat the Coyotes. First, the hot dogs were $9.00. I laughed when I saw that price. A hot dog that costs more than a pack of prison cigarettes.

Still, I bought it, and ... I'm trying to think of the right words to describe its size, its circumference (that's what she said). Maybe if you melded three regular hot dogs together, or four.

Dear reader, I ate two. It was the kind of meal where you eat it, and then feel ashamed for what you have done.

My girlfriend, by contrast, had a baked potato with barbecued beef. Normally, this would be a terrible sports food, but she's off the hook because she ate it during intermission. But foods that require utensils do not make good sports-viewing food. For one, you have to look down a lot. Second, utensils betray the raw primal spirit of sports.

So where does that leave steak? Yes, it's primal, but it requires utensils. My decree: you may eat steak while watching sports, but only if you eat it with your hands. Pick it up and pull chunks of meat away with your teeth. This will please Lady Luck, and she will reward your team in kind.

Second to hot dogs in sports righteousness are chicken wings. Like hot dogs, they are easily eaten with one hand. They are messy, which also pleases Lady Luck. A few years ago, I had a couple friends over and we watched college football from noon to dusk. We ordered 100 wings for it.

At the end of the night, my two friends said, "Man, I can't believe we ate 50 wings between us!"

I had eaten 50 by myself.

My only beef (no pun intended) with chicken wings is the price gouging that goes on with them. Ten years ago, bars would have 10-cent wing night. Now, they have 50-cent wing night.

Nothing else that I'm aware of has had its price increase 500% in the last 10 years. A gallon of milk is not $12. A pizza is not $45. Why are we letting the goons at Tyson and Perdue get away with this?

Speaking of pizza, I'm actually not a big pizza fan during sports. It just doesn't quite carve out that niche. Sports validates hot dogs and wings with Dodger Dogs and the Wing Bowl. Where is the pizza sports lore? I don't think it exists.

Moving on to beverages, you should abide by the following rules. Cold drinks only, including beer, soda, and water. Coffee and especially tea are never okay, and hot chocolate is only okay if you are tailgating shirtless in Buffalo.

Wine is only allowed if you are sitting in a luxury suite, talking on your bluetooth, only looking at the field of play when you hear a roar from the crowd, and are a douchebag.

Shots? Not until the game you are watching is 75% over. If you want to get drunk, fine, but allow the process to last all game, which is the opportunity beer affords you. You can't watch the game if you are too busy clutching your stomach and puking in the trough-style urinal.

You also want to choose an easy-to-drink, not-too-heavy beer, so go for lagers and ales, no stouts.

OTHER ACCEPTABLE FOODS FOR SPORTS VIEWING:

* Subs and sandwiches
* Fries
* Pretty much any finger food, be they chips, appetizers, or party tray
* Popcorn
* White Russians (the Big Lebowski Rule)
* Anything made by your mother (this supersedes other rules)

OTHER UNACCEPTABLE FOODS FOR SPORTS VIEWING:

* Hamburgers (see pizza)
* Vegetables sans dip
* Bubble gum (except for baseball)
* Fruit
* Anything made by a "private chef" or "personal chef"

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:08 PM | Comments (1)

December 29, 2010

Efficiency and Your 2011 NCAA Tournament Bracket

Many people have many different reasons for picking their favorite day of the year. Some people like their birthdays because it's all about them. Some people like Christmas and the spirit of giving. Others like Thanksgiving because of the perfect combination of food, family, football and being able to pass out drunk in front of everybody without anybody caring.

While Thanksgiving is and always will remain my number one day of the year, a very close second is the first day of the NCAA tournament. I have taken the first Thursday and Friday of the tournament off from work every year since I entered the workforce. Now that I have the package from DirecTV, I sit on my couch, clean bracket in my lap and spicy Bloody Mary in my hand, and bask in the glory of the single greatest sports event in the world.

I have many goals in life. I want to run communications at a major Fortune 500 company. I want to avoid getting a divorce and raising kids who hate me. I would like to retire before I reach 75.

And I want a god-damned perfect bracket.

As far as being a sports fan, the perfect bracket is the ultimate Holy Grail, even greater than a perfect season in fantasy football. To finish Championship Monday with not a single X on your sheet ... wow. Just wow. That's all I can say.

But I'm not just one to want and dream. I'm convinced that if I crunch enough numbers and look at the stat sheets long enough, I'll figure out just the right mixture of numbers to get me there. Of course there is always going to be luck involved, but for luck to make you perfect, you have to get most of the way on your own.

One of the stats I was interested in exploring was offensive and defensive efficiency and which created a more effective advantage in a given game. Using the data provided so generously by Ken Pomeroy on KenPom.com, I found that neither really created enough of an advantage to use for predictive purposes. Teams with an advantage in offensive efficiency have about a 60 percent win percentage (58-38) in the first round over the past three years, while teams with a defensive efficiency advantage have a 66 percent win percentage (63-32).

If you combine both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, you get a higher success rate. Teams with both an offensive efficiency advantage and defensive efficiency average have an 80 percent win rate (36-9) over the past three tournaments. Of course that wouldn't have helped you pick Northern Iowa over Kansas last March, but not many stats would have.

To take it a step further, I decided to calculate the efficiency split for each team, subtracting the defensive efficiency (lower the better) from the offensive efficiency (higher the better). The reason here was to identify the truly dominant teams, splitting them out from the all-offense-no-defense teams with high offensive efficiency ratings but equally high defensive efficiency ratings, and grind-it-out clock killers who will have great defensive efficiency ratings but sub-standard offensive efficiency ratings.

The efficiency split turns out to be a pretty good barometer of success. If you just used it as a single stat, you would have had a 73.96 percent success rate in the first round of the past three years. That's not great, but it's better than almost all other single-stat success rates. (Scoring margin is the best single-stat predictor at nearly 74.74 percent.)

Where efficiency split turns out to be perhaps even more valuable is in determining the potential for a deep tournament run. Of the 69 teams over the past three years to come into the tournament with an efficiency split at 10.0 or lower, only two made it into the Sweet 16 (Villanova in 2008 and Arizona in 2009, both as 12 seeds who faced 13 seeds in the second round) and none made it into the Elite Eight. Fifty-one of the 69 went out in the first round, and 14 of the 17 teams to come in with an efficiency split under 5.0 lost in their first game.

On the other side, teams with a 20+ efficiency split have a much higher ceiling. Only one team in the past three years with a 20+ efficiency rating has lost in the first round (Utah State last year under the Texas A&M rule*). The other 16 teams with 20+ efficiency splits includes the last three national champions, 2008 runner-up Memphis, three other Final Four teams, and two Elite Eight teams. So when you're looking at potential Final Four teams, these should be the first teams you look at.

(*The Texas A&M Rule: No matter what the stats might say, don't take a team of over-achieving short guys from a mid-major conference over the Aggies. In 2008 and 2009, BYU ruled the stat sheet over A&M and lost both times. In 2010, it was Utah State with the numerical dominance, but a first-round loss. If A&M ends up in one of those match-ups again this year, consider yourself warned. They've also lost their second-round games each of those years, so keep that in mind, as well.)

Looking toward the 2011 tournament, it's still way too early to actually start using the numbers. Because of the wide disparity in non-conference schedules, several teams have astronomical splits that are likely to shrink considerably over the next few months (Ohio State is not likely to finish at +40). But if you figure that teams in the BCS conferences will have their splits drop as they face tougher competition, while teams in non-BCS conferences will likely see theirs maintain or even rise, it is worth noting that 11-1 Minnesota's efficiency split is a paltry 13.4, good for only 69th (nestled comfortably between Colorado and UTEP), while BYU's 11th-best 27.3 bodes well for a next-level run. (Lots of reasons to like BYU this year, particularly their similar growth pattern to the 2010 tournament Cornell and Butler squads.)

Of course it's always possible I'll do all this research and still wipe out to some Mary in the office pool who picked squads based on uniform color, but I don't care. One of these years I'm going to nail it. And when they interview me like they did that Autistic kid last March, and they ask me how I did it, I'm going to have a damn good answer.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 3:42 PM | Comments (1)

The Blyleven HOF Case: Bert So Good

Baseball Hall of Fame voting is a strange drug.

It causes reasonable men, high on the Hall, to wage verbal warfare on one another. The combatants doggedly defend their entrenched positions, blinded by the haze of the Cooperstown buzz.

In my own case, Jon Heyman's explanation last week on SI.com of why he did not, again, vote for Bert Blyleven's induction caused me to chase the dragon of Hall of Fame fury.

First, I will preface that this column is not designed to make the case for Blyleven's enshrinement. There are many sabermetric blogs that can weave (and have, repeatedly) sophisticated metrics into that case far better than I. Instead, I choose to put Heyman's backward reasoning on trial, as it demonstrates the kind of lazy sports writing that holds down the level of discussion, and in this case, would keep a worthy Hall of Famer undistinguished. In the middle of his column, Heyman gives the purpose of laying out his rationale (Heyman's words are in bold, mine are in plain face):

If [Blyleven] gets in, I will congratulate him and understand he is probably as deserving as a few pitchers already in the Hall. I just want to explain my vote.

And to be fair to Heyman, his piece is not an ax-grinding hatchet job telling you why Bert Blyleven should not be in the Hall of Fame. It is a hatchet job, though, with the blade firmly planted in the forehead of reason and logic, friends who rarely come around sports journalism anymore because of assaults like the ones below.

I feel compelled to explain my decision, which has been met with criticism from a small but stout and increasingly effective Internet campaign.

Ah yes, the haunting specter of the "Internet" crowd, facelessly lurking in the shadows. Heyman, of course, writes for a magazine that posts his stories on said Internet and even, gasp, tweets. But warm up the your-mother's-basement routine! Heyman leads with the ever popular suggestion that real baseball analysts use quill and parchment, chisel and stone, or whatever newspapers use these days.

While I don't think Blyleven merits inclusion in a museum that honors the top one percent of players all-time, I think he is at worst in the top two percent, one of many borderline cases who just happens to fall on the wrong side of the border.

Much of Heyman's argument centers on what he considers important in determining who belongs in the Hall of Fame. And given that Cooperstown's voting instructions are pretty vague, I have no problem with a man's criteria for voting ... as long as those criteria have something to do with the reality of playing baseball well and are fairly applied to everyone up for consideration. I bring this up because using "the top one percent" is pretty arbitrary, especially when a player in the next percentile gets left out. With that said, if the column ended there, a) it would probably be the world's shortest column and b) I could accept that the man has some kind of objective criterion on which he decides how to vote. But, mercilessly, it doesn't end there...

... the reality is that over 14 years of elections, he has received slightly less than half the votes. His supporters may think it is indisputable, but the voters seem to have been torn for 14 years.

Hopefully, you see the inherent conflict in that conclusion. "Because Blyleven has not gotten enough votes in previous years, he should not get enough this time." Of course, that logic would tell you that after the first vote, the player should be off the table. If the voters are "torn" through year three, why go through another 12 votes?

One Blyleven Internet supporter is such a zealot that he has guessed as to the motives for the non-support, and even on occasion taken to outing non-supporters or ridiculing them, perhaps in an attempt at persuasion.

This, of course, is a complete break in the treaty between "real" print journalists and Internet cyborg-bloggers. And we all know that zealot certainly wrote such nastiness because he is an unemployed, angry 35-year-old living in his mom's basement, right, Jon?

My "no" vote has nothing to do with the Internet campaign, which has only become apparent in Blyleven's final few years on the ballot, and appears to be effective, as Blyleven's totals have risen precipitously.

It is interesting, though, that I have gone from being in the vast majority in my non-support of Blyleven (he received only 17 percent of the vote his first year and actually dipped to 14 in his second) to the vast minority (only 25.8 percent voted against him last year).

I do not completely follow Heyman's insinuation here. Is he suggesting that while most of his fellow voters have taken into consideration new metrics they had not before and changed their votes, he has been able to keep his vote the same in spite of new analysis? Should anyone be proud of this?

In filling out my ballot, I go more by impact than career numbers.

Yep, we're finally on the outskirts of "You Had to Be There" territory...

Part of that is that I am old enough to have seen the entire careers of every single player on the ballot by this point.

This is where Heyman's rolling tumbleweed of nonsense starts picking up speed. Because, unless he has incredible genes or is a vampire, Heyman did not see any of the careers of the vast majority of baseball players. And if I may be so bold as to continue with the assumption of Heyman's mortality, he will miss out on quite a few more on the back end. But by all means, let the sliding scale of Hall of Fame worthiness for players from a few decades be determined by Heyman's infallible neurons.

There is nothing more insulting as a reader than when a writer asks you to believe his analysis because he has seen more than you or "just knows" some other way. Watching sports is not alchemy or mysticism. We watch games, think about the facts, and construct logical arguments. And those logical arguments can reasonably disagree. But those cases have to stand up to the scrutiny of reason. Treating your own brain as a black box that takes in games and spits out impeccable final judgments is misguided and lazy.

And part of that is that I don't think numbers define a player's career. Some players, such as Catfish Hunter, Reggie Jackson, and Ozzie Smith, exceeded their numbers in my opinion.

Could you argue that the word "define" leaves room for some poetic license? Sure. But I have a feeling when you read Joe DiMaggio the digits "5" and "6" start coming up for air from your memory pool, and probably in that order. And even if we don't know from memory what the number is, Cal Ripken is the guy who played a large number of games in a row without missing one.

I can imagine [Bobby Abreu] becoming the next Blyleven, a very good player whose career numbers lead to an Internet campaign on his behalf.

You would think Heyman worked on John McCain's 2008 election staff, as burned as he sounds by Internet campaigns.

If you put Blyleven's lifetime numbers through a computer, the computer would probably determine that he (and Abreu, for that matter) is a Hall of Famer. But the game is about human beings, not just numbers.

These are the moments when I am most concerned about the newspaper and magazine industries in this country. Because to hear Heyman tell it, computers are some kind of cross between a credit card reader and C3PO, taking in numbers and passing judgment on their significance, probably with a condescending English accent. Can't those publications afford actual computers that just get bogged down by spyware and Flash games like the rest of us?

It's about impact. The Hall of Fame is about fame, and Blyleven's greatest fame came not while he was pitching well for five teams over 22 seasons but instead through his extended candidacy and the controversy surrounding it after he had retired.

And we've finally come to the lazy man's last stand: Rather than make a cogent, structured argument for an award, go for the most literal interpretation. If the Hall of Fame is about fame, shouldn't Mark McGwire be in it? Or Morgana the Kissing Bandit? If the Hall of Fame is about fame, shouldn't we just poll the public and see which names people have heard of?

A re-evaluation of his career upward, after the fact, has helped him grow in stature.

Yes, I completely agree! Blyleven played in an era before Ivy Leaguers populated front offices and our tools for evaluating players were restricted to what we could count on our fingers and toes. I'm so glad he came around. Oh, this was supposed to be a negative?

I, however, would argue that he was very good but not quite great. He assuredly dominated batters and games, but he never dominated even one season or certainly a series of seasons. He never finished higher than third in the Cy Young balloting and only four times finished in the top 10, meaning he was never considered among the two best pitchers in his league during his time.

This is the tip of an iceberg of context-less facts Heyman lists to suggest Blyleven was not considered all that great at the time. Do we learn how any other Hall of Famers or contemporaries of Blyleven faired in this same strangely assembled basket of metrics? Of course not!

Blyleven was never considered to be in the category of the game's best pitchers during his career. He simply outlasted almost everyone else and kept pitching effectively into his 40s. He never led the league in wins or ERA, though he did lead the league in home runs allowed twice and earned runs allowed once. He also led in innings twice, complete games, strikeouts and WHIP once apiece, which enhances his case but not quite enough in my estimation.

He only made two all-star teams, which may be explained in part by the fact that he was a slightly better second-half pitcher, but two is an awfully low number for someone who pitched 22 seasons. In other words, he was an all-star less than one of out of 10 seasons, or about average if players were picked randomly.

He only received MVP votes twice, finishing 26th in 1973 and 13th in 1989. According to Baseball-Reference.com, he ranks 936th all-time in MVP shares at 0.09.

... and this is the rest of said iceberg.

Blyleven's backers sometimes will also act astounded or even apoplectic over the fact that some, including myself, support Jack Morris over Blyleven ... with Morris, to some degree, you had to be there. And I don't mean just Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, which was indeed one of the more remarkable and important performances in baseball history, when Morris pitched all 10 innings to win 1-0 and deliver his hometown Twins a championship.

Blyleven is going to be inducted into the Hall of Fame next summer and has had thousands of fans, many of whom are too young to have seen him play much, come to respect his career through his Hall vetting process. It might have been frustratingly long, but Blyleven should feel satisfied with how well his career withstood some of the most intense HOF-scrutiny in recent memory.

The real victim in this debate is Morris, who by the misfortune of being on the ballot around the time of the great Blyleven debate, gets dragged into this without fail. When people like Heyman make the linked cases that Morris should be in and Blyleven should be out, the debate inevitably deteriorates into why Jack Morris, in terms of Hall-worthiness, stunk. Freed from his unwitting role in this referendum, I have a feeling Morris will be the life of the Blyleven induction party this summer.

Morris was arguably the best pitcher in the 1980s. He was the ace of three World Series-winning franchises, and while Blyleven also pitched very well in the postseason, he was never the ace. So it wasn't just sportswriters, it was his own managers who didn't appear to see him as one of the greats of the game.

To this point I have tried very hard not to cherry pick specific instances where Heyman's logic makes him look asylum-bound, but indulge me this one exception. So to be a Hall of Famer, a "great of the game," you have to start game one of your team's post-season series? Then let's start crossing off names. Mark Maddux/Tom Glavine/John Smoltz: which two do not belong? And looking to next season, Roy Halladay/Roy Oswalt/Cliff Lee/Cole Hamels: we have to discount three of their seasons, right? In summary, Heyman tells us that your Hall-worthiness is inversely proportional to the quality of the other pitchers on your team's staff. Oh, okay, Jon.

In the end, the best are not defined by being consistently good and sticking around long enough to post totals beyond their actual impact.

I had to read that closing sentence at least eight times before my brain stopped rejecting it like a mismatched kidney. It reads as if the "not" was accidentally included, right?

What I find most frustrating about Heyman's column is that I think there is a legitimate case hidden behind the improperly cited precedent and bungled evidence collection. What do we value most, long periods of "pretty good" or shorter peaks of "great?" What is the point of diminishing returns for longevity? These are real questions that Hall of Fame voters must consider, and in many cases, they are not easy to answer.

But this is not what Heyman chose to explore (If you have stuck with me this far, I encourage you to read his column in full to ensure that I have fairly represented his arguments). Instead, this piece meanders between his own personal crusade against specific other writers and haphazardly selected exhibits he submits to backup his "no" vote on Blyleven.

We can have high quality debates in sports writing. But we first have to shed these kinds of "old-school" (read: lazy and familiar) fallacies.

Corrie Trouw is the founder of Pigskinology.com.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 11:58 AM | Comments (0)

December 28, 2010

NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* How about a round of applause for the league? The emphasis on intra-divisional scheduling at season's end has produced the most compelling Week 16 and 17 matchups in recent memory, with lots of significant games. That's a win for fans, and the league deserves credit for bringing it about.

* Houston kicker Neil Rackers this week went 2-for-2 on extra points and 3-for-3 on field goals. Big deal, right? Happens every week. The field goals were 34, 54, and 57 yards. Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski connected from 38, 45, 51, and 59. I can't remember another week, ever, when two kickers made multiple 50-yarders.

* Aaron Rodgers played about as well on Sunday as a quarterback can play. To suggest that he's not on the same level as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Michael Vick is ridiculous. There's no one else, except maybe a healthy Tony Romo, who's comparable to Rodgers.

* Everyone knows the Panthers are bad, but few fans seem to realize how miserable the offense is. Carolina's defense is poor, yes, but it's not the worst in the league. Carolina's offense is among the worst in history. Ten teams have scored more than twice as many points this season as the Panthers.

* Chargers running back Mike Tolbert suffered a scary hit against Cincinnati this weekend, but the injury turned out not to be serious. Tolbert did sprain his neck and shoulder, but has full mobility and is expected to make a full recovery.

***

I love sports statistics. I hate how they're used. When people look at running backs, they usually focus on one category: rushing yards. Average per attempt, touchdowns, receiving, fumbles — nothing else matters. Kansas City running back Jamaal Charles is on the verge of breaking one of the oldest and most important individual records in league history. Through Week 16, Charles has 216 carries for 1,380 yards. That's terrific, the second-highest yardage total in the league, and he's not getting credit for that, either. I bet he won't even make the Pro Bowl unless someone else gets injured.

But did you notice that Charles gained all that yardage on just 216 carries? He's averaging 6.39 yards per attempt. The record, with at least 150 rushes, is 6.40, by Jim Brown in his legendary 1963 season. The only other runners ever to average over six per carry in a season are Hall of Famers Barry Sanders, Joe Perry, and O.J. Simpson. That's right: Jim Brown, Jamaal Charles, Barry Sanders, Joe Perry, O.J. Simpson. I don't think any RB in history has had two great years back-to-back with so little fanfare. In '09, Charles rushed for 1,120 yards with a 5.89 average. He and Brown are the only players to average 5.8 or higher more than once.

The official record is actually 8.45, by Michael Vick, but that's with a minimum of just 100 carries, and all the top guys are quarterbacks or role players. Comparing Charles to Randall Cunningham doesn't really get us anywhere. With a minimum of 150, you get actual running backs facing actual run defenses. If Charles can raise his average, at home against the Raiders in Week 17, by a hundredth of a yard, he'll tie Brown for one of the most important single-season records a running back can hold. This is the RB equivalent of a guy batting .399 on the last day of the season, and no one's paying any attention.

On to the penultimate power ranking of the 2010 season, brackets show previous rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — In NFL history, there are 12 teams that have scored 500 points in a season. The Pats, who have scored at least 30 for seven weeks in a row, are at 480. They have 60 touchdowns this season; no one else even has 50. Over the last four games, New England's defense has allowed just 10 points per game and forced a total of 20 turnovers. Seriously, they're +20 in turnovers over a four-game span, winning by an average of 37-10. This team has a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than the undefeated '07 Pats did, and not just with the benefit of hindsight. The '07 Pats had an old roster, and for that reason or some other, faded at the end of the season, edging out victories instead of dominating. This year's Pats have taken the opposite course, winning some close ones early and peaking late.

2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — Lost at home, but what a game from the defense. Holding New Orleans to 17 points, with 2 interceptions and a defensive touchdown, is nothing to be ashamed of. Everyone recognizes John Abraham as a star. He has 13 sacks, second in the NFL. The other standouts are DT Jonathan Babineaux, who creates a ton of opportunities for his teammates, and CB Brent Grimes, who has become one of the elite cover men in the league.

Most fantasy league championships were last week. Defensive players usually get left out of fantasy football, but if your opponent was counting on Drew Brees or Marques Colston, why not show your appreciation to Babineaux or Grimes? Use part of your winnings to send them a fruitcake, or a bouquet of flowers (if that's your style), or a simple thank-you note.

Jonathan Babineaux
Atlanta Falcons
4400 Falcon Parkway
Flowery Branch, GA 30542

Other Falcons players can be contacted at the same address. You can also tweet your appreciation to @BGrimes20 or @johnabraham55. These guys can't directly get in on fantasy, but you can let them know you won your league because of them. Conversely, if your opponent had Matt Ryan or Michael Turner:

Jonathan Vilma
c/o New Orleans Saints
5800 Airline Drive
Metairie, LA 70003

3. Baltimore Ravens [4] — What a career Ed Reed has put together. Reed intercepted two passes this weekend, bringing his season total to 6 in only nine games. This was his 10th career multi-interception game. That's seventh-best all-time, and everyone ahead of him either (1) played in the '60s, when there were fewer rules favoring offense, and quarterbacks were less careful with the ball, or (2) is Ronnie Lott. This also marks Reed's seventh season with 5 or more interceptions, tying him for third-best all-time, behind only Hall of Famers Emlen Tunnell and Paul Krause. This doesn't even include his fantastic postseason résumé. Another year or two like this, and I'm ready to declare Reed the greatest defensive back in history — bar none. Already, he's a top-10 safety.

4. Green Bay Packers [6] — Years ago, baseball researchers discovered Pythagorean winning percentage, based on runs scored and allowed. It turns out that this model is a more accurate predictor of the team's future results than win-loss record. Close games are subject to luck, and while a team may win more than its share of nail-biters for a year or two, it usually balances out over the long term. It turns out the same thing applies in football: point differential, adjusted for a team's strength of schedule, is a better judge of the team's true strength than its record. The 9-6 Packers lead the NFC in point differential (+141). The NFC's best: GB, ATL (+105), NO (+87), PHI (+63), CHI (+55), NYG (+44), TB (+13). One of those teams will play at St. Louis (-29) or Seattle (-107) in the postseason, and two of them will miss the playoffs entirely.

5. New Orleans Saints [8] — Overcame 8 penalties (for 92 yards) to beat the Falcons in Atlanta, the first team to do so since ... last year's Saints. The offense made plays when it had to, but the win really belongs to a defense that allowed only 7 points and one drive longer than 30 yards. The Saints have won seven of their last eight and clinched a playoff spot.

Pierre Thomas was productive in the absence of Chris Ivory, but Reggie Bush continues to be ineffective as a ball-carrier. He averages under 3.0 yards per carry, with a lifetime average of 3.92. That's below average for anyone, but it's downright pathetic for a third-down back. I'd like to see what Bush could do if he was used more like a wide receiver. If we could re-draft from 2006, Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, and Vince Young probably wouldn't create much controversy at the top. Instead, how about Maurice Jones-Drew, Haloti Ngata, and Greg Jennings? Or Devin Hester, Nick Mangold, and Vernon Davis? Alternatively, Mario Williams, DeMeco Ryans, and Owen Daniels wouldn't be too shabby. Why isn't Charley Casserly still a GM? Bush and Young have shown promise at times, but neither has lived up to the hype.

6. Chicago Bears [10] — Scored 7 points in Week 14, 78 in the two games since. This week's matchup against the Jets was anticipated as a defensive battle, but instead it was an uneven, high-scoring affair. By quarter: 10-0, 7-24, 21-7, 0-3. The Bears were +24 in odd-numbered quarters and -17 in even-numbered quarters. Now that is a back-and-forth game. Chicago's offense played well, and Hester had another good game returning, but the standout may have been DB Chris Harris, who had 10 solo tackles, an interception, and a fumble recovery.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — Actual quote from the Thursday night game, following this play: "That's all Ben Roethlisberger." Matt Millen really said that after Mike Wallace, maybe the fastest player in the league, raced 35 yards after the catch, outrunning Charles Godfrey, Captain Munnerlyn, and Nic Harris on his way to the end zone. I agree that Ben made a nice throw under pressure, but shouldn't more of the credit should go to Wallace? Most receivers don't score on that play. Wallace, sixth in the NFL in receiving yards, is one of the best wideouts in the league. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's defense has allowed the fewest points in the NFL, holding five of the last six opponents under 20.

8. Philadelphia Eagles [3] — Michael Vick doesn't like getting hit. Blitzing such a dynamic quarterback is always a risk, but leaving the pressure off is an even bigger risk. The Eagles are a good team, and on their good days they can beat anyone, but they haven't played a really dominant game in a month. Now they're guaranteed the third seed in the NFC playoffs, and will probably face a dangerous Green Bay team in the wild card round. Regarding the Vick-for-MVP insistence: last season, the Eagles went 11-5 with Donovan McNabb at QB. This year, they're 11-4 with Vick. I don't deny that he's had a great season, but if he's really the single most valuable player in the NFL, shouldn't the Eagles be better than they were last season?

9. Kansas City Chiefs [14] — Has any individual player been as up-and-down this season as Dwayne Bowe? Breaking down the schedule into thirds, here are Bowe's five best games, his five worst, and the other five:

		Rec	Yds	TD
Best		44	726	10
Med.		16	303	4
Worst	7	69	1

Everyone has some ups and downs, but Bowe is feast or famine. He's basically 10 times as productive in his big games, and only has an average performance about 1/3 of the time. After his player-of-the-month November, Bowe totaled 3 catches for 56 yards and no touchdowns the next three weeks, presumably ruining several fantasy teams. Then he rebounds with another huge performance. It would be nice to see the Chiefs develop a complementary receiver to take some pressure off him.

10. Indianapolis Colts [13] — Playing their starters in Week 17 for the first time since 2006, when they won Super Bowl XLI. This team reminds me of that one. Inconsistent ground game, awful run defense, but suddenly better at the end of the season. The last two weeks, Indianapolis has contained Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden while establishing its own running game. This is the weakest Colts team in years, but it can hang with the Patriots and is fully capable of making a postseason run, especially with San Diego out of the picture.

11. San Diego Chargers [5] — On their good days, the Chargers can be just as dominant as the Patriots. They beat Jacksonville 38-13, Arizona 41-10, Denver 35-14, Indianapolis 36-14, Kansas City 31-0, San Francisco 34-7 ... those are all blowouts, and there are some pretty good teams in there. San Diego ranks second in yards gained and league-best in yards allowed. There's a ton of talent on this roster, and I would have loved to see what San Diego could do in the playoffs, even though the answer is probably "lose". The rest of the AFC has to be less worried about the Chiefs than the Bolts. All that said, the Chargers consistently shot themselves in the foot, lost winnable games they needed, and have no one but themselves to blame. San Diego is 2-5 on the road.

12. New York Giants [9] — Eli Manning threw 4 interceptions in Week 16. It was his fourth game this season with at least 3 picks, and the 10th time in his career. Other active players with at least 10: Brett Favre (39), Kerry Collins (20), Jon Kitna (19), Peyton Manning (15), Drew Brees (12), Matt Hasselbeck (10). The Giants "lead" the NFL, with 41 turnovers, but could still make the postseason. The last playoff team to lead the NFL in turnovers was the St. Louis Rams in 2003. The '01 Rams, who lost Super Bowl XXXVI, were the last playoff team to commit as many as 40 turnovers in a season (actually 44).

13. New York Jets [12] — Three losses in the last four weeks, but they've clinched a playoff spot and can't be counted out against anyone. The Jets have a peculiar habit of winning when they need to, and they've already beaten the current top two seeds in the AFC. If I'm the Jets, I'm rooting for Indianapolis and Oakland in Week 17. I'd want the Colts in my wild card game, not the Chiefs. It's a better style matchup, it's indoors, and the Chiefs are undefeated at home.

14. Oakland Raiders [16] — I swear this summary is about the Raiders, but let's begin by talking about New England. The Patriots take what the defense gives them. Cover the deep stuff, they throw short. Bite on the hooks and slants, they go deep. Put too many defensive backs out there, they'll run all over you. The Raiders are not good enough to do that. They can't let opponents dictate the offense, and when they run 48 pass plays and 17 rush plays, that's not a formula for success. The Colts never led by more than 8, so this wasn't passing to catch up. It was passing your way to self-destruction.

15. Detroit Lions [20] — Clearly moving in the right direction. The Lions have won three straight for the first time since 2007, and consecutive road games for the first time in a single season since 2004. The Lions are only -14 in point differential, and with a big win over the Vikings in Week 17, could become the first Detroit team to outscore its opponents since 1995, when Detroit went 10-6 and finished +100 in point differential. That team was led by Wayne Fontes, Scott Mitchell, Barry Sanders, Herman Moore, and Chris Spielman.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [17] — Holy cow, Josh Freeman. What a game against Seattle: 21/26, 237 yards, 5 TDs, 23 rush yards, no turnovers, 144.2 passer rating. Freeman has played well all year, but that's a rare performance. Here's how the Bucs make the playoffs: win in Week 17, Packers and Giants lose. Tampa has lost three of its last five.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [15] — David Garrard has not had a bad season. He's got a 90.8 passer rating, he's +8 in TD/INT differential, and he's one of the best running QBs in the league. He's not elite, but he's pretty clearly a solid starter, not someone who needs to be replaced. That said, he can't win games. Take away the Jags' running game, and it's unlikely that Garrard will make enough plays to win. Facing a Washington defense that was missing its best pass rusher and its top three safeties, Jacksonville managed just 17 points and lost at home. Garrard led the team in rushing, with 39 yards and a touchdown.

18. Miami Dolphins [19] — Is anyone actually going to keep the same coach in 2011 that it had entering 2010? It sounds like Dolphins owner Stephen Ross is going to fire Tony Sparano. This is a coach who took over a 1-15 team that hadn't made the playoffs in six years. In three seasons, they're 25-22 with a division title. You're going to fire this guy after only three seasons, two of them decent and the other Coach of the Year quality? That's insane. Get a new quarterback; keep the coach.

19. Dallas Cowboys [11] — Last season, the Cowboys had a top-10 defense. This year, bottom-10. Only the Broncos have allowed more points. I've heard several paid analysts bash Jon Kitna, blaming him for the Cowboys' loss to Arizona. It's true that Kitna threw 2 interceptions, both returned for touchdowns, and that those INT returns were the difference in the game. But I don't see how you blame Kitna if you actually watched Saturday's game. The first throw was perfect, but the receiver fell down. The second pass was a little behind Roy Williams, but he got both hands on the ball. I know Stephen McGee had one gorgeous pass to Miles Austin, but if Kitna had played the whole game, Dallas probably would have won.

20. Minnesota Vikings [24] — The coaches deserve a ton of credit for the Tuesday night upset. Joe Webb looked like Michael Vick, Percy Harvin looked like Reggie Wayne, and Adrian Peterson looked like himself. The offense kept Michael Vick off the field, but the defense deserves the real credit, forcing three turnovers and repeatedly putting Vick on the ground. Antoine Winfield obviously had a big game, Jared Allen is an underrated run defender, and Chad Greenway really is the best defensive player on the team, one of the most underappreciated players in the NFL.

21. Buffalo Bills [18] — In the last four weeks, they're 2-2, but the losses were by a combined 55 points. The Bills, at 4-11, are tied for the second-worst record in the NFL, and so can expect a very high pick in April's draft. Without knowing who's going to be available, I'd like to see them go after a defensive lineman or a pass-rushing OLB.

22. Cincinnati Bengals [29] — With both of the team's high-profile wide receivers sidelined by injury, Carson Palmer had his best game of the season: 16-of-21, 269 yards, 4 TDs, 157.2 passer rating, no sacks or interceptions. This against the top-ranked defense in the NFL. Is there any team in the league that Terrell Owens or Sideshow Chad can still help at this point in their careers? I don't believe there is.

23. St. Louis Rams [26] — After all the hand-wringing about a sub-.500 division champ, it's probably not going to happen. The Rams are 7-8, and they're favored against the Seahawks in Week 17, which would give St. Louis an 8-8 record and the NFC West crown. In 2009, the Rams, Buccaneers, and Chiefs posted a combined record of 8-40. This season, all of them could make the playoffs. Most of that is a scheduling fluke. Against teams with winning records, those three are a combined 3-11 (.214).

24. Tennessee Titans [21] — Kerry Collins completed just 14-of-37 pass attempts against Kansas City. For the season, Collins' passer rating is 77.4, compared to 98.6 for Vince Young. Collins is 37, and this is his second straight season getting badly outplayed by a guy the coaches don't want around. If the coaching staff really can't coexist with Young, the team needs to bring in someone new. Say this, though: Collins' arm strength isn't going anywhere. On Sunday, teammate William Hayes got a concussion when a ball thrown away by Collins hit him on the head.

25. Cleveland Browns [25] — Once 5-7, they've lost three straight and have gone a month without scoring 20 points in a game. Sometimes you see a team rise up to save the job of a coach rumored to be in trouble. The Browns are doing the opposite. I think Eric Mangini has done some good things and deserves another season, but Wayne Fontes he is not. If young players like Colt McCoy, Peyton Hillis, and Joe Haden continue to develop, this could be a competitive team in 2011. Biggest offseason priority: receivers.

26. San Francisco 49ers [22] — What a weird time to fire Mike Singletary. I never particularly liked Singletary as a coach, but I hate firing these guys during the season, and I hate firing them before they've had a realistic chance to succeed. This move meets both of those criteria. I could understand if we were in the middle of the season, but what, you really couldn't wait a week to let Singletary finish up the season and leave with a little more dignity? How is a guy the answer, and then 31 games later, he's not any more? Singletary took over a team virtually devoid of talent, and if he didn't raise it to new heights, he didn't sink the ship, either.

What I don't get is when a team hires someone like Josh McDaniels or Singletary, who makes it clear up front that he has a particular vision for the team and wants to assemble a locker room that squares with what he envisions, then dumps the guy before he's had time to do what he told you he needed to. It's like firing a college HC before he can coach any of the guys he recruited. It doesn't make sense, and it isn't fair. This has been a bush league, bottom tier organization ever since Eddie DeBartolo was forced to sell the team, and it will remain that way for the foreseeable future.

27. Washington Redskins [28] — A good QB switch requires diabolical timing. When benching one player (like Donovan McNabb or Kyle Orton) for another who is clearly not as good, you have to make the new guy look better, so be sure to do it when you have several weak defenses coming up on the schedule. For instance, the Cowboys and Jaguars, who rank 31st and 26th, respectively, in points allowed. Facing Jacksonville's defense, which has allowed opponents a collective passer rating of 97.0 (second-worst in the NFL), Rex Grossman completed less than half his passes, threw an interception, and completed only one pass over 12 yards, compiling a 60.0 rating. But the defense played well, Washington won anyway, and the move to Grossman is hailed as not totally idiotic. It is totally idiotic.

28. Arizona Cardinals [31] — Jay Feely is obviously team MVP. He's 24-of-27 on field goals, with no misses from inside 40 yards, and perfect on extra points. He's hit 53- and 55-yarders, the game-winner in Dallas, and even rushed for a touchdown in Week 14. The Cardinals gained only 10 first downs on Saturday, compared to 24 for Dallas. John Skelton showed poise and promise, but if I'm Arizona, I'd rather keep him around as the backup than rely on him to be the starter in 2011.

29. Denver Broncos [32] — Still the worst defense in the NFL, but Tim Tebow is 1-1 as starter. After falling behind 17-0, Denver took advantage of Houston's equally porous defense and unusual play-calling (only 6 rush attempts) to mount a 300-yard, 24-point second half comeback. Tebow carried 10 times for 27 yards and a touchdown. I know he's not a conventional quarterback, but how do you average 2.7 yards per rush? Against the Texans! Goal-line specialists get more than that.

30. Houston Texans [23] — Second four-game losing streak since the bye, 1-8 over that span. That includes six losses to teams with winning records, but in the last two weeks, Houston has dropped winnable games against Tennessee and Denver. The shining light in this miserable season has been second-year RB Arian Foster, who leads the NFL in rushing yards, rushing first downs, rushing TDs, yards from scrimmage, total first downs, and total TDs. He's also top-10 in yards per carry (4.9). If the Texans can keep their defense healthy, they'll present a lot of challenges in 2011.

31. Seattle Seahawks [27] — Five losses in their last six, all by more than two touchdowns. Here's everyone the Seahawks have beaten in the last two months: the Cardinals and Panthers. Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst, who is 28 but had never played in a regular-season game before the loss at Tampa, will start against the Rams in Week 17, with a division title on the line.

32. Carolina Panthers [30] — Thursday's game was only the second or third time this season I've seen the Panthers. Man, they're awful. Maybe Jimmy Clausen will be a serviceable pro quarterback one day, but right now this team does not have an NFL-level QB. Rather than drafting a quarterback and throwing him to the wolves in 2011, why not get a veteran and use the draft to provide him with some blockers and receivers? Gotta walk before you can run, Panthers, and right now, you're barely crawling.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:00 PM | Comments (1)

Knicks/Heat: A Rivalry Renewed?

Tuesday night's NBA schedule says Knicks at Heat. This simple schedule listing has several meanings depending on whether you like to live in the past, look to the future, or multitask and do both at once, which is what we're about to do now.

If you happen to remember the NBA in the late-'90s (and how awesome much of it was compared to today), the Knicks and the Heat was an all-out war zone. The teams and the fans hated each other and with good reason. The two teams were tied together by a series of fascinating links and subplots.

Coach Pat Riley spurned the Knicks to go to a rebuilding Miami franchise, then openly welcomed the boos from the Garden fans upon his return. Riley assistant Jeff Van Gundy became the Knicks coach, while brother Stan Van Gundy became Riley's new assistant in Miami. Patrick Ewing was a star Georgetown center before Alonzo Mourning became a star Georgetown center, thus making Ewing the aging master and Mourning the up-and-coming protégé. Mourning also was the ex-teammate of Knicks forward Larry Johnson. The former 1-2 punch of the early-'90s Charlotte Hornets were now on opposing sides. John Starks was a loose cannon. Tim Hardaway loved to talk trash and add verbal fuel to the fire. Charles Oakley was an enforcer. The teams employed near-identical hard-nosed defensive styles. The list went on and on. It was just that good.

Every year of this 1990s rivalry, the Heat would have one of the best records in the East, appearing to be one of the league's few elite teams, ready to contest for a championship. While the Knicks failed to reach that level of consistency or dominance in the regular season, it seemed as if every playoff game between the two teams came down to the bitter end.

These bitter ends fueled the fire like few other rivalries. P.J. Brown flipped Charlie Ward into a row of photograhpers. Tim Hardaway knocked out the Knicks all by himself in a Game 7. Allan Houston tipped in a last-second shot only to have the refs incorrectly wave it off. Larry Johnson and Alonzo Mourning traded wild (and empty swings) until Jeff Van Gundy somehow ended up attached to Mourning's ankle. Houston got poetic justice with a fortuitous game-winner off the top of the backboard. Tim Hardaway hit a three-point buzzer beater while draped in a sweater made of Chris Childs. Anthony Carter flipped in an illegal shot over the top of the backboard to win a playoff game. Clarence Weatherspoon bricked a series-deciding shot in a seventh game that he never should have been allowed to take. The list went on and on. It was just that good.

All of this enmity has gone up in smoke in the decade that has passed in between. The Knicks franchise has fallen off the map, only to finally be on the way to returning to relevance, while the Heat were fortunate enough to draft Dwyane Wade, acquire Shaq for a few years, and win that elusive first championship with, yes, the hated Pat Riley as the head coach.

Now the Heat have perhaps the game's greatest talent in LeBron James, who led many to believe for years that he would go to New York once his contract ended, only to reject them for the Heat to join a seemingly unstoppable power trio with Wade and Chris Bosh. Suddenly, once again, there's reason, at least on one side, for there to be hostility again.

Once LeBron aligned with Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade, the trio was expected to instantly take over the world. Instead, they spent the first month of the season floundering in an unacceptable mediocrity. With statement blowout wins over the Pistons and LeBron's old buddies, the Cavaliers, they found their swagger and went from doubtful to dominant seemingly overnight. This culminated with a 15-point win at Staples Center against the defending champs on Christmas night. Suddenly, one has to call into question who the best team in the NBA really is.

The Knicks failed to get LeBron, but in settling for Amare Stoudemire, they suddenly saw a young unproven nucleus come together. Unknowns like Raymond Felton and Landry Fields suddenly began letting their talents take over with Stoudemire as their main muscle. These are not the aforementioned defensive-minded Knicks of that famed '90s rivalry, though. Under coach D'Antoni, they run teams ragged and score in the 110s frequently. Stoudemire scores a ton, but draws criticism about his defense.

Despite this, New York won 8 straight games at one point and got off to their best start since the Ewing era. Not only that, but talks of a trade for Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony have persisted all season long. Suddenly, greatness seems in reach for the once-beleaguered Knicks.

The Celtics were the team that snapped the Knicks' 8-game winning streak, with a Paul Pierce fadeaway with only tenths of a second left. The team still appeared to be playing well until Miami followed with a 22-point thumping at the Garden. The Knicks sputtered into Cleveland and suffered an embarrassing overtime loss before regrouping to win their last two games against the formidable Thunder and Bulls. At the moment, the Knicks are a wild card and few of us know exactly what they are capable of night to night. We just know that when they do play well, they do it with an excitement that can once again capture the excitement of the New York area.

And so here we are for Tuesday night. New York at Miami. The two most fascinating teams and stories in the league today going head-to-head. The stage is set. Now if only some of their future battles can start to live up to the glory of their past ones.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 12:59 PM | Comments (0)

December 27, 2010

BCS Bowl Game Predictions

Author's note: You will notice that I do not use the sponsor names for the bowl games in question. The reason for this is that I think you, the reader, know which games I'm talking about more by their proper bowl name than by who sponsors them, considering the sponsors change constantly and mainly are nothing but a source of annoyance to you, the football fan.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. TCU

Can I say that this is the game I am most looking forward to without sounding blasphemous?

In a year where the BCS got it right (or as right as is possible) at the top, I am still looking forward to the Rose Bowl more than any other game, including the national championship.

Here's why:

1. New Year's Eve and New Year's Day are when bowl games are supposed to be played.

2. I love seeing teams from power conferences matchup against the cinderellas.

3. It's just a good matchup.

While the first two are self-explanatory, the third calls for some commentary.

TCU and Wisconsin are tied for fourth in points scored, averaging 43.3 points a game with neither team scoring less than 20 points in a single game throughout the season.

TCU is a defensive monster, allowing only 11.4 points per game. Something has got to give. I don't think there is any question that this will be a close game. The question is will the defenses reign or will they fail to show up?

Prediction: TCU creates some drama by beating the Badgers, 24-20.

Fiesta Bowl: Connecticut vs. Oklahoma

People all around are shouting about how UConn doesn't deserve to be in a BCS bowl game and well, I'm one of them. Having four losses does not speak elite college football team. It would be one thing if said losses were to powerhouse teams, even good teams, but they were not. UConn's four losses came at Michigan, at Temple, at Rutgers, and at Louisville. Those are teams with a combined record of 25-21. Ouch.

That being said, UConn didn't lose a single game at home this year. The Fiesta Bowl, however, is at a neutral site quite a long ways from the Huskies' happy home in Connecticut. And it should be noted that none of UConn's home wins came against a top 25 team. The Fiesta Bowl will actually be the first game UConn will play against a top 25 team. Wow. What an elite team.

Oklahoma is a team that certainly had its share of scares early. In their first four games, the Sooners won one game by more than a touchdown, that being against the (at the time) No. 17 Florida State Seminoles. Their wins against Utah State (by 7 points), Air Force (by 3 points), and Cincinnati (by 2 points) didn't exactly stir confidence.

But Oklahoma won the tough games down the stretch to clinch the Big 12 title and deserve to be where they are. Although, as we've already established, they perhaps deserved better competition.

That being said, the Sooners have had a history of struggling in bowl games where they were heavily favored, though you probably don't need reminding of that.

This game comes down to the Huskies being too one dimensional on offense and the Sooners being too overwhelming offensively for the Huskies to keep up.

Prediction: Oklahoma doesn't let the Huskies get started and wins, 41-10.

Orange Bowl: Stanford vs. Virginia Tech

This game will have plenty of eyes on Mel Kiper's dream boy Andrew Luck, who has led his team at Stanford to a pretty spectacular season, losing only once to the potential national champions, the Oregon Ducks.

The Hokies of Virginia Tech have won 11 straight games. Had they not laid an egg against James Madison in week two, they may be ranked as high as No. 4 in the country.

Both teams have quarterbacks looking to make it big at the next level, with Luck and Tyrod Taylor, yet neither of these teams is overly pass-happy. They are both balanced teams between the run and the pass and both have solid defenses taking the pressure off of these two gentlemen who may be playing on Sundays very soon.

This will be a game likely won by one future NFL quarterback or the other making a big mistake or making a big play. Who will come out on top? I'm not feeling Lucky (sorry, couldn't resist the pun, everybody else is doing them).

Prediction: Tyrod throws for two and runs for two as the Hokies win, 34-32.

Sugar Bowl: Ohio State vs. Arkansas

I'm not overly excited for this game. I feel like it is the only BCS game with no story. TCU can continue to prove the worthiness of non-power conference schools. UConn has a chance to prove it belongs. Virginia Tech can redeem their dismal start. Oregon vs. Auburn is as close as we'll come to a real, true national champion until a playoff comes along.

What's story for this game? Ohio State is playing another BCS game that they will probably lose to a team they probably should beat?
The Buckeyes have been in a BCS game since 2005, going 2-3 in that time span.

Yes, they have a great program. Nobody else can boast such a streak, but they have not followed through when they needed to, losing national championship games in 2006 and 2007.

I guess you have two good quarterbacks once again in Terrelle Pryor and Ryan Mallett, but I don't feel like the general population has anything to cheer for in this game unless they love or hate one of the teams involved.

It looks to be a good matchup and will likely be a good football game, but compared to the others, it comes off rather boring.

Prediction: Arkansas forces Pryor to make mistakes and the Hogs win, 38-24.

National Championship: Oregon vs. Auburn

This is a real solid college football game. It reminds me a bit of the Texas vs. USC Rose Bowl in early 2006. No. 1 and No. 2 with the Heisman Trophy winner playing in the game and someone who was rather overlooked for the Heisman standing on the other sideline.

Now I'm not saying that Newton didn't deserve the trophy statistically. He had the stats of a very good quarterback and a very good running back. All off-field high jinks aside, he deserved the trophy.

In 2006, Vince Young held high the trophy that mattered. Will LaMichael James get to do the same?

Both teams have a balanced offensive attack. It's just that what James and Darron Thomas do for Oregon together, Newton does (to quote my dad) "all by his lonesome."

It's amazing how remarkably similar the stats are of Newton by himself and Thomas and James together:

Passing
Newton: 2,589 yards, 28 TDs, 6 INTs
Thomas: 2,518 yards, 28 TDs, 7 INTs

Rushing
Newton: 1,409 yards, 20 TDs, 5.8 avg
James: 1,682 yards, 21 TDs, 6.0 avg

Newton also has the added advantage of having freshman running back Michael Dyer, who rushed for 950 yards himself.

All in all, I think this will be the highest scoring of the BCS Bowl games and will give fans one last great game of the season.

Prediction: Oregon wins on a last second field goal, 48-45.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 1:26 PM | Comments (0)

December 23, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 16

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Carolina @ Pittsburgh (-13)

The Steelers dropped back into a tie with the Ravens in the AFC North after a 22-17 loss to the Jets at Heinz Field. Meanwhile, the Panthers posted only their second win of the year, winning 19-12 over the Cardinals. With wins over Carolina and Cleveland to close the regular season, Pittsburgh would take the division crown by virtue of a tiebreaker over the Ravens.

"I may be on my way out," John Fox said, "but, as Ben Roethlisberger has said on occasion, 'I won't go down without a fight.' But the Panthers at Steelers will be a case of worlds colliding. No, I'm not talking about a 2-12 team facing a 10-4 team. I'm referring to the historic bathroom shenanigans of two Panther cheerleaders and those of Ben Roethlisberger. What's the difference between a Roethlisberger bathroom interlude and that of the Panther cheerleaders? Two willing participants."

Carolina's Jimmy Clausen had his best game as a Panther last week, tossing a touchdown pass with nary a turnover. He'll face a rugged Steelers team fighting for playoff seeding, albeit without safety Troy Polamalu.

"Great!" said Clausen. "Now I can actually compare myself to Joe Flacco and say I didn't see Polamalu at the line of scrimmage, threatening a blitz. In my case, though, it will be because Polamalu wasn't even there."

Steelers win, 27-9.

Dallas @ Arizona (+6½)

After last week's 19-12 loss at Carolina, the Cardinals fell to 4-10 and became the first team to be eliminated from the NFC West division race. They'll host the Cowboys in a Christmas Day contest at University of Phoenix Stadium.

"It was a bittersweet loss," said Ken Whisenhunt. "Sure, we were eliminated from the playoffs, which is sad, but we were the last 4-10 team eliminated from the playoffs, which is a great platform to build upon for next year. Our platform this year was to win the division. Finishing last makes it a platform dive."

The 5-9 Cowboys saw a 27-7 lead disappear last week before finishing off the Redskins 33-30 in Dallas. Now 5-9, the Cowboys will look to finish the year on a positive note, preferably with a three-game win streak.

"The fans in Arizona are lucky," Jerry Jones said. "In a single day, they'll be visited by Santa Claus and America's Team. And if they're anything like Cowboys fans, they're sure to be disappointed, because unlike Santa, America's Team always leaves you wanting more. Let's face it. This holiday season, the Macy's star strikes more fear into opponents than the Dallas star."

Dallas wins, 27-17.

Detroit @ Miami (-3½)

The Lions and Dolphins have seen their fair share of controversial calls this season. For Detroit, Calvin Johnson was robbed of a touchdown catch in Week 1, while Ndamukong Suh was penalized for unnecessary roughness for shoving Jay Cutler in Week 14. Miami lost in Week 7 because officials couldn't determine who recovered Ben Roethlisberger's fumble, and Sal Alosi's trip of a Miami player went unnoticed by officials in Week 14's Dolphins/Jets game.

"So," said Jim Schwartz, "you've got the Lions versus the Dolphins, or 'the team officials make the call against versus the team officials don't make the call for.' By rule, both teams have been screwed this year.

"Last week in Tampa, we ended a road losing streak of 26 games with a win over the Bucs. It's reason to celebrate, mostly because we can finally say goodbye to the last remaining trace of Matt Millen's stamp on this franchise."

Miami was eliminated from playoff contention with a 17-14 loss to the Bills. Dan Carpenter missed four field goals, after having missed only six previously. The Dolphins could still finish with a winning record by taking their last two games of the year.

"We know we should have won the game," Tony Sparano said, "and so do the Bills. Dan is certainly upset with his misses, but if anyone can understand the heartache of going 0-4, it's the Bills. A foot fetish is all the rage right now in the AFC East, but it's not exclusive to the Jets. I think last Sunday's performance proved that Carpenter is into the fetish himself, because his kicking is a clear indication that his toes sucked."

Detroit wins, 23-20.

NY Jets @ Chicago (-3)

The Jets boosted their playoff hopes, and ended a franchise losing streak in Pittsburgh, with a 22-17 win in Pittsburgh. The Jets scored their first offensive touchdown in 12 quarters, and their defense kept the Steelers out of the end zone after they drove to the Jets 10-yard line in the final seconds.

"It took us 12 quarters," said Mark Sanchez, "but we finally penetrated an opponent's goal line. I've heard of a 'goal line stand' by a defense; this qualifies as an offense's 'goal line abstained.' At a rate of one touchdown every 12 quarters, we would be on pace to outscore the Patriots, assuming a game was 108 quarters long."

The Bears clinched the NFC North crown with a commanding 40-14 win over the Vikings in a game played at TCF Bank Stadium, home of the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Chicago knocked out Brett Favre early, then pulled away behind the arm of Jay Cutler and the legs of Devin Hester.

"We've studied a lot of film on the Jets," Cutler said. "None more intensely than the foot fetish videos that appear to show Rex Ryan's wife, narrated by what sounds like Rex himself.

Everyone knows about our defense. Our offense has really shown improvement, but what offense doesn't after playing the Patriots? Mike Martz has surrounded himself with the finest assistant coaches mediocre money can buy. In light of the Sal Alosi scandal and our upcoming game against the Jets, Mike has deemed them 'Wall-Martz.''

New York wins, 19-16.

New England @ Buffalo (+8)

After two consecutive blowout victories, the Patriots had to fight back from a late deficit to defeat the visiting Packers 31-27, improving to 12-2 and moving one step closer to clinching home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Tom Brady set an NFL record by throwing at least 2 touchdowns with no interceptions for the seventh-straight game, and the Patriots got a boost from offensive lineman Dan Connoly's 71-yard kickoff return.

"I've got nothing but praise for Connoly," Tom Brady said, "or anyone else who makes me look fast. Dan's speed is deceptive — he only looks fast."

After an 0-8 start, the Bills have gone 4-2 in their last six games, serving notice that they'll be a team to be reckoned with next year, if by "reckoned with," you mean beaten by the Patriots and Jets twice in 2011.

"I see lots of promise in 2011," said Chan Gailey. "It's possible we could see a 'worst to first' scenario next year, when we go from the AFC East cellar to the division title. For now though, with the division-leading Patriots visiting our house, it's a case of 'first to worst.'"

New England wins, 30-13.

Washington @ Jacksonville (-6½)

The Jaguars failed to clinch the AFC South title, falling 34-24 in Indianapolis as the Colts held Jacksonville's heavy-hitting rushing attach to only 67 yards. The Jags are now tied with Indy in first place, and will need to win their final two games and hope for a Colt loss to win the division.

"Surprisingly," Jack Del Rio said, "the loss to the Colts put us in the holiday mood. We can't help but sing our favorite Christmas song, 'No L, No L,' and hope the Colts get what we ask for in the Black Hole."

Last week, Mike Shanahan named Rex Grossman the starter for the Redskins final three games. Grossman, after a shaky start, nearly led Washington to a comeback victory in Dallas, but the 'Skins eventually fell, 33-30. Grossman will start this Sunday in Jacksonville, while Donovan McNabb will serve as third-string quarterback.

"I think the last time I was named a third-string quarterback," McNabb said, "it was in the Pro Bowl. I feel incredibly disrespected by Shanahan's decision to demote me. It's like a slap in the face, a 'bench slap,' if you will. Between Albert Haynesworth and I, Daniel Snyder has put a lot of money on the table. Obviously, Snyder likes to spend money; Shanahan likes to waste it."

David Garrard throws for 265 yards and 2 scores, and the Jaguars win, 27-16.

Tennessee @ Kansas City (-5)

The Chiefs won in St. Louis last week 27-13, maintaining their one-game lead over the Chargers in the AFC West and increasing the likelihood that San Diego could finish 10-6 and not make the playoffs. Matt Cassel returned to the lineup 11 days after an appendectomy, and the Chiefs rushed for 210 yards to vanquish the Rams.

"It's like they say," Cassel said. "The appendix is useless. Or is it? Not to my good friend Dwayne Bowe, who's not only in the import-export business, but also in the black market organ donor business.

"Now, keeping the Chargers out of the playoffs not only is good for us, but good for the rest of the league's playoff teams, as well. They could be a dangerous team on the road in the playoffs, but I'm fairly certain they'd be harmless at home. And that's where they'd be if we win our remaining two games, thus keeping San Diego 'at bay.'"

The Titans remained alive in the playoff hunt with a 31-17 win over Houston, holding the NFL's leading rusher, Arian Foster, to 15 yards on the ground, while Chris Johnson rushed for 130 yards and a touchdown. The Tennessee defense will be challenged by the Chiefs No. 1-ranked rushing offense.

"Not long ago," Jeff Fisher said, "the Titans were known for their two-man rushing attack, featuring the hefty LenDale White and the shifty Chris Johnson, collectively known as 'Dine and Dash.' Now, the Chiefs have cornered the market with their own rushing duo of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.

Chiefs win, 27-19.

San Francisco @ St. Louis (-1)

All four NFC West teams lost last week, and while there's nothing particularly unusual about that, it is odd that the Rams and Seahawks lead the division with equal 6-8 records. And that means, at best, the West champion will have an 8-8 record. And that means, at best, the West champion will have an 8-9 record after the playoffs.

"When people speak of 'worst-case scenarios,'" Mike Singletary said, "they are obviously speaking of the eventual NFC West winner. And if it's talk of the 'best-case scenario,' obviously it's a discussion about the virtues of being the NFC's No. 5 seed. What do you call the NFC's No. 5 seed? The 'favorite.' Only in the NFC West would you find a division champion who is both the underdog and overrated."

St. Louis wins, 26-13.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (+3)

After 14 games, have the Ravens finally found the formula to closing out a win? In last week's 30-24 win over New Orleans, Baltimore rode the legs of Ray Rice, who rushed for 153 yards on 31 carries and caught 5 passes for 80 yards.

"A successful running game serves two purposes," said John Harbaugh. "First, it keeps the opposing offense off the field, and it keeps our defense off the field. Ray will be the focus of our offense from here on out. I fully expect Sunday's contest in the Dawg Pound to be a battle of ground games. Peyton Hillis, the 'other white Peyton,' versus Ray Rice. And if Hillis gets the best of the battle, I fully expect the Browns to keep the score close, like 'white' on Rice."

The Ravens stuff a gimpy Hillis, but the Browns keep it close behind the passing of Colt McCoy. A late Flacco touchdown pass to Anquan Boldin provides the winning margin for the Ravens.

Baltimore wins, 27-20.

Indianapolis @ Oakland (+3)

After a three-game skid nearly derailed their playoff hopes, the Colts have now won two in a row after whipping the Jaguars 34-24 last week. After 11 interceptions in those three games, Peyton Manning has thrown 4 touchdowns and tossed no picks in Indy's two wins, putting the Colts back in control of their own destiny.

"Sure, we may control our own destiny," Manning said, "but our playoff hopes are still tenuous. They're like a fragile yet strapping quarterback protected from the game's evils by a few layers of bubble wrap.

"Now, I haven't felt the need to call a team meeting this year. Other teams have, and that's usually bad news. Usually, Eli Manning is the reason for a team meeting, and not the originator of one. Either way, it spells trouble."

And speaking of trouble, the Raiders can run the ball, and they will. Oakland wins, 31-30.

San Diego @ Cincinnati (+7)

The Chargers may be the NFL's hottest team, having won six of their last seven games, the latest a 34-7 win over the 49ers as Philip Rivers threw 3 touchdown passes to Vincent Jackson. Now 8-6, San Diego's wins could go all for naught should the Chiefs win their final two games.

"We could win our last two games," said Rivers, "and still be left out in the cold. That would be known as 'win chill.' And that can only remind us of the 1982 AFC Championship Game between the visiting Chargers and Bengals, in which the wind chill reached a staggering minus 59 degrees. Needless to say, the Chargers lost, the games and their tans, and Dan Fouts spent the next three days thawing his beard."

The Bengals broke a 10-game losing streak with a 19-17 win over the Browns last week. Cedric Benson rushed for 150 yards and a score, leading many to question why it took Cincy over three months to employ the formula that won them the AFC North last year.

"The presence of Terrell Owens makes you do strange things," said Marvin Lewis. "And so does his absence. T.O. has been placed on injured receive, so now we can get back to what we do best, and that's playing without T.O."

San Diego wins, 30-20.

Houston @ Denver (+3)

Last week saw the first NFL start for Denver rookie quarterback Tim Tebow, thrust into action because of Kyle Orton's sore ribs. Tebow was solid in a 39-23 loss to the Raiders, becoming only the third player in NFL history to rush for a touchdown of at least 40 yards and pass for a score of at least 30 yards.

"Tebow has his limitations at quarterback," said Eric Studesville, "but he can do things that most quarterbacks can't. Like pull off a 40-yard quarterback sneak. Or Tweet Jesus and get an answer. But for the man responsible for the NFL's top-selling jersey, it's nice to finally see him responsible for putting one on the field."

The Texans have gone downhill after a promising 4-2 start, losing seven of eight games since then. Last week, Houston lost in Tennessee 31-17, a game in which Andre Johnson and Cortland Finnegan didn't scuffle, yet two Texans teammates, Brian Cushing and Antonio Smith, did.

"Divided we stand off," said Gary Kubiak. "That fight, along with a 5-9 record and other issues, will likely cost me my job. Unlike Andre Johnson's pummeling of Cortland Finnegan, the Cushing/Smith tussle ended in a tie, so you could say it's the 'draw' that broke the camel's back."

Fight fans are excited about this game, for Johnson will square off against the "Champ," Champ Bailey, that is. And Johnson gets the best of Bailey.

Texans win, 31-23.

NY Giants @ Green Bay (-3)

The Giants blew a 24-3 halftime lead to the Eagles, surrendering 28 fourth quarter points and losing 38-31 on DeSean Jackson's 65-yard punt return for a touchdown as time expired. New York punter Matt Dodge drilled a line-drive punt directly to Jackson, who bobbled the catch before recovering and stunning a New Meadowlands crowd.

"The plan was for Dodge to kick the ball out of bounds," Tom Coughlin said, "and hope that a New York assistant coach would make the tackle. That didn't happen, and thus was borne 'The Miracle in the Meadowlands 2: DeSean's Denouement.'

"Apparently, it takes a miracle for Eli Manning to call a players-only team meeting. I hear his words were short and to the point: focus on the next game. That's a very astute point, and also one that is present in any team meeting, not just an emergency one."

The Packers are 8-6, one game behind the 9-5 Giants, so Sunday's game will likely determine the NFC's final playoff team.

"And," said Mike McCarthy, "it will also likely determine which team has the worst kick return coverage in the NFL. It's one thing to give up a 65-yard return to a blazing speedster; it's another to surrender a 71-yard return to a lumbering Patriot offensive lineman."

Packers win, 28-23.

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-6)

Despite a 34-18 loss to the Falcons, the Seahawks remained tied for the division lead thanks to a winless day for the NFC West. Matt Hasselbeck was benched late in the game, but will start in Tampa as the Seahawks look for a win to set up a Week 17 showdown in Seattle with the Rams for the NFC West crown.

"When Pete Carroll tells you to sit," said Hasselbeck, "it's usually at the behest of the NCAA. Against Atlanta, my performance was a lot like a Bigfoot sighting — I may or may not have been there, and video of such was grainy and inconclusive."

Bucs win 24-14.

Minnesota @ Philadelphia (-14)

So how long does it take the NFL to come to a decision on the Brett Favre/Jenn Sterger situation? Is it a coincidence the NFL is taking its good, sweet time to make a decision involving Favre? Is the lengthy investigation period of Favre's infamous text message picture unofficially known as the 'long and short' of it?

"The Jenn Sterger situation won't go away easily," said Leslie Frazier, "and neither will Favre. In Favre's case, 'injured reserve' means he may be hurt, but he's still the backup. Favre's injury has allowed us to get a look at Joe Webb. Webb has an immense amount of athletic skill, and he reminds us a lot of Michael Vick, in that Webb would also like to own a dog. We feel with the right amount of grooming and coaching, Joe could be the next big thing in the NFL. So, it's with an immense amount of anticipation that I say to Joe, 'We can't wait for you to go world wide, Webb."

The Eagles all but clinched the NFC East last week, shocking the Giants 38-31 in the New Meadowlands on DeSean Jackson's 65-yard punt return as time expired.

"Two weeks ago," said Jackson, "Michael Vick's autograph was the big story. Last week, I put my signature on our season, and as the G-Men found out, that was all she wrote."

Eagles win, 33-13.

New Orleans @ Atlanta (-2)

The Falcons clinched a playoff spot last week with a 34-18 win in Seattle, and now look to clinch the NFC South by knocking off the Saints for the second time this season. Atlanta won in New Orleans 27-24 in a game the Saints would have won had Garrett Hartley made an easy, 29-yard field goal in overtime.

"Here in Atlanta," said Mike Smith, "we call that kick the 'chip shot.' Sure, Hartley should have hit that easily, and the Saints should have won. But he didn't, and they didn't. And I would be lying if I said I didn't wish the same fate on Hartley this Monday night. So, you could say I would be 'remiss' if I didn't wish for bad luck on the Saints kicker."

The Saints can still win the South, but would need to beat the Falcons on Sunday, then beat Tampa and hope Atlanta loses at home to Carolina in Week 17.

"What's the most-coveted NFC seed?" Drew Brees said. "The No. 1 seed, and a first-round bye, or the No. 5, and a first-round road game at the home of the NFC West champion? It matters little to us. Either way, we're guaranteed to advance to the second round."

The Saints stay alive in the NFC South hunt with a 27-24 win.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:24 PM | Comments (0)

December 22, 2010

Atlantic Coast Calamity

The Atlantic Coast Conference has long been a hallmark conference in college basketball. With several historically renowned programs, and the basketball powerhouses of Duke and North Carolina, an argument can be easily made for it being the gold standard of college basketball since its inception in 1953. Its 12 national championships are second all-time behind the Pac-10's 13 (11 of which are UCLA's). The conference's 40 Final Fours are the most all-time. Yet, as of last week, the ACC had just one ranked team, normally an unthinkable phenomenon in most seasons approaching the holidays and conference play for everybody.

It helps that the one ranked ACC team is Duke, undefeated and undoubtedly presumptive favorites to repeat as national champions should Kyrie Irving return. Even in the specter of Irving possibly be out for the entire season, Duke has been a unanimous No. 1 in both polls for the last two weeks. Polls mean nothing in college basketball, unlike in college football. Yet, the polls are accurate in assessing that none of the other 11 ACC teams have shown themselves to be one of the best 25 in the nation.

By the numbers, one can look at all the records of ACC teams, and find that, as of Monday, all had records above .500 and the conference as a whole has won 70 percent of its non-conference games.

Such numbers are misleading. When looking at records at this point in the season, and especially in high-major conferences, one has to take account of guarantee games and lesser opponents a team may have played. Georgia Tech may have a 6-4 record, and beat a quality Richmond team Saturday, but also provided Kennesaw State with the Owls' only Division I win this season. The 70 percent non-conference winning percentage puts the ACC about 10 percent behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12, and even behind the Mountain West.

Coming into the season, the ACC was not expected to have its best year, but Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech were supposed to be a cut above the rest, with Florida State below the three, but still a quality team. Duke has obviously met expectations. Florida State is 9-2, but lost its two big tests against Florida and Ohio State. The Seminoles' other wins have come against middling or poor competition.

Virginia Tech and North Carolina have definitively deviated from expectations to a greater degree. The two teams appear to have contrasting problems. For Virginia Tech, the Hokies appear to be too reliant on star senior Malcolm Delaney, and especially against better opposition. Delaney shot 6-of-18 against Kansas State and 2-of-18 against Purdue, both in losing efforts. The offensive focus on Delaney has led to a drop in scoring from Hokie seniors Jeff Allen and Dorenzo Hudson.

North Carolina has had the opposite problem, one of being too deferential. Harrison Barnes, after being the nation's top-rated recruit a year ago, was assumed to be that player. He has struggled to say the least, shooting just 36% from the floor while leading the Tar Heels in minutes. Barnes was named a Preseason All-American before the season, an honor that looks criminally out of place now, but was bound to happen for a freshman somewhere along the line after the first year successes of players like Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, and John Wall. Barnes hardly looks ready to lead along the same lines that those three did.

Tyler Zeller has improved the most of anyone on North Carolina's roster, and could definitely lead the team. Zeller was dominant in North Carolina's one signature win so far this season against Kentucky. On Saturday, the Tar Heels went to Zeller in the big possessions, and the big man largely converted. However, the defense kept Texas in the game by failing to contain Jordan Hamilton and then couldn't make stops late.

North Carolina is in better shape than Virginia Tech. None of the Tar Heels' four losses looks especially bad, with the worst coming to Vanderbilt in the Puerto Rico tournament. Virginia Tech had a surprising home loss to Virginia in both teams' conference opener. Virginia has been erratic this season, winning at Minnesota, but losing by a combined 65 points to Stanford and Washington.

By talent, North Carolina and Virginia Tech are still two of the top three teams in the ACC. Their accomplishments so far are not indicative of what the second and third best team in the ACC would have usually produced by this time in the season.

Most of the rest of the conference that I have not yet touched upon falls in a general classification of "no or few bad losses, but little or no good wins."

Boston College is perhaps the one pleasant surprise in the ACC. America got to see what a gifted coach Steve Donahue was as he guided Cornell to the Sweet 16 last year. In his short time so far at BC, the Eagles have knocked off Texas A&M, Cal, and won at Maryland in the conference opener. Despite an early loss to Yale, BC has a top 15 RPI, at the stage of the season when the RPI begins to hold water.

Maryland's Jordan Williams is trying his best to fill the scoring void left by Greivis Vasquez, but the graduation of role players from last year like Eric Hayes and Landon Milbourne may have been nearly as costly. Maryland's best win to date is probably a one-point win over College of Charleston.

Clemson is transitioning to a new and very different system under first year coach Brad Brownell, and has beaten just one team with a winning record.

Miami has a potentially solid team that could make noise in conference play. The Hurricanes beat West Virginia, but lost to Rutgers and Conference USA's two best teams to this point in Memphis and Central Florida.

Wake Forest is truly a bad team after being decimated by graduation and the draft. The Demon Deacons have lost to mid-majors like Stetson and UNC-Wilmington that aren't supposed to come anywhere close to winning their league.

NC State under Sidney Lowe always seems to have teams described as "talented" and "promising," but never make noise except for an occasional upset in conference play. Four times this season NC State has played quality opponents and four times the Wolfpack have lost, including a 39-point walloping at Wisconsin. Lowe's team has shot just 42.5 percent overall, and 33 percent from three.

Since expanding to 11 (and eventually to 12 teams) the ACC has averaged 5.5 NCAA tournament bids per season. This season teams in the conference failing to take advantage of opportunities for big non-conference wins. When combined with a conference season where (outside of Duke) teams are sure to hand each other several losses, that number of bids could be well-below average.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 6:24 PM | Comments (0)

Can Central Florida Tame Georgia?

On December 31st, 2010, the UCF Knights will face possibly their toughest opponent of the season in an underachieving Georgia Bulldogs team.

UCF this season has found fire with true freshman quarterback Jeffrey Godfrey, which, paired with a great defense, has lifted the Knights to a Conference USA title. UCF's defense will have their hands full in this game with the Georgia offense.

The Knights should matchup well with the Bulldogs' running attack, but will need to be on top of their game to stop receiver A.J. Green. Green, who has only played two-thirds of the season, has amassed 49 catches for 771 yards and 9 touchdowns. Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray is also a threat, throwing for 24 touchdown passes compared to just 6 interceptions.

UCF's running game has also been very solid under a stout offensive line. The Knights have three players who have rushed for over 500 yards, those being Ronnie Weaver (890), Jeffrey Godfrey (546), and Latavius Murray (533). Along with those statistics, UCF has compiled 34 rushing touchdowns this season.

Georgia's rushing attack features Washaun Ealey, who has 751 yards and 11 touchdowns. Statistically, the Bulldogs have a balanced attack, but there is no doubt that their greatest weapon is A.J. Green.

Keys to Victory

For UCF to win this game, they will need to minimize their mistakes. Georgia is used to playing stronger, faster teams in the SEC, so they have the ability to take over a game if their opponents make poor decisions.

On top of limiting mistakes, UCF also needs to control the clock. They have done this all season, but again, against Conference USA opponents and not teams from the SEC. UCF's success will rely on a run game.

UCF also needs to keep Jeffrey Godfrey comfortable. Emotions will be running high for Godfrey, who will start in his first bowl game of his college career. If UCF is behind and has to rely on Godfrey's arm, they will be in unchartered territory.

Godfrey is most effective when he is on the move, either off of pass/run options or play action passes. Those types of plays work best when the running game is effective.

Georgia, on the other hand, will have to be consistent. Throughout this season, Georgia has either looked terrific, or just plain terrible. If Georgia exploits UCF's youth and inexperience in big games, they will come away with an easy win.

For Georgia to be successful, they will need to dial up the big-play to A.J. Green early and often. Green gives the Bulldogs their best ability to strike quickly. If UCF has to play from behind, Georgia will most likely win.

The Bulldogs also need to contain Jeffrey Godfrey. Godfrey has seen success this season, so if they can get in his head by putting pressure on him or being physical, they could rattle the young freshman.

If Godfrey is contained, UCF will be forced to rely on their run game, which will make defensive playcalling very easy. Making UCF one dimensional is the way to stop their potent offense.

Key Matchups

Bruce Miller vs. Georgia's Offensive Line

Bruce Miller is UCF's best defender. If Georgia's offensive line allows Miller to bust loose, it will hinder their strong passing attack. The key to a down-field passing attack is time in the pocket, and if Bruce Miller is on his game, that part of Georgia's offense will be inefficient.

Jeffrey Godfrey vs. Georgia's Defense

Jeffrey Godfrey has without a doubt secured the starting quarterback spot for the remainder of his time at UCF. He will have a huge role in UCF's success against Georgia. Godfrey needs to be smart with how he plays against a fast Georgia defense. If he isn't smart, Georgia will give him fits all game long.

A.J. Green vs. UCF's Secondary

If A.J. Green is shut down, UCF will be on its way to a Liberty Bowl victory, which would be the first bowl-game win in the team's short history. Shutting Green down is easier said than done. Green has three 100-yard games, and three multi-touchdown games this season.

This game will appear on ESPN at 3:30 PM EST on December 31st.

Posted by Jason Clary at 1:29 PM | Comments (1)

December 21, 2010

NFL Week 15 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* The NFL withdrew $10,000 in fines for Detroit guard Stephen Peterman, deciding the plays were legal. In the comments section of the article on NFL.com, Lions fan tbwr4 wrote, "Can we also get the Calvin Johnson touchdown in Week 1 to count?" Win.

* Indianapolis RT Ryan Diem was called for two more false starts on Sunday (at home!), bringing his season total to a league-worst 8. I think Diem really misses Ryan Lilja next to him. I don't know how else to explain such a sudden decline.

* Will somebody please take away Greg Gumbel's thesaurus? Before kickoff of the Colts/Jags game, Gumbel described the rivalry as "bitter and savage and brutal."

* Bottom five in time of possession: Titans (26:01), Cardinals (26:14), Seahawks (26:58), Panthers (27:49), Broncos (28:04). That figure for the Titans amazes me. To average an 8-minute TOP deficit is mind-boggling, and to rank behind the Panthers in an offensive category is hard to even believe.

* This "America's Game of the Week" nonsense has got to stop. First of all, NBC and FOX can't both have the game of the week. 'Game' is singular — there's only one. It's stupid for NBC, but it's absurd for FOX. Half the country is watching a different game, kids. Does Kansas City not count as America any more? What's the point of this, anyway? Do you think more people will watch if you call it "America's Game of the Week" 3,000 times? Like, "Oh, I was going to watch videos on YouTube, but if it's America's Game of the Week, I'd better watch this, instead." Come on.

***

Four teams have outscored their opponents by at least 100 points this season: the Patriots (+139), Chargers (+128), Packers (+117), and Falcons (+108). That's the two best teams in the league, and another two that might miss the playoffs. Both San Diego and Green Bay still could get in, but either way, they're better than most of the teams that will play this postseason. Has anyone played better the last two weeks than San Diego? Not that I can see. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Packers might have beaten New England on Sunday night. Is Green Bay the best team in the NFL? The team can make its case in crucial Week 16 and 17 matchups with the Giants and Bears.

Brackets indicate previous rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — Compared to the Packers, they had fewer yards (369-249) and first downs (26-14), lower third down percentage (57-40), more penalties (7-2), and a huge deficit in time of possession (40:48-19:12). But they returned an interception for a touchdown, made the most of their red zone opportunities, and benefitted from Green Bay's multiple dropped interceptions. Vince Wilfork was quieter in the second half, but he had a huge game. Speaking of huge, that man is the size of a house. I'll name my all-pro team in a couple weeks; Haloti Ngata and Wilfork are probably the front-runners among interior defensive linemen. Also in the running: Ndamukong Suh (DET) and Tommy Kelly (OAK). A couple other guys could win me over with impact games in the final two weeks, but those are the four I'm most interested in.

2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — Eight consecutive victories, including three straight on the road. A win in either of the final two games would clinch homefield advantage in the NFC. A couple weeks ago, I noted that DB Brent Grimes "was credited with 6 passes defensed against Tampa Bay, one of the highest single-game marks I've ever seen." This week against Seattle, Grimes knocked down another 5 passes. He now leads the NFL in passes defensed (27).

3. Philadelphia Eagles [3] — Effectively clinched the NFC East with their incredible comeback in Week 15. If the Eagles win either of their last two games, or the Giants lose either of their remaining two, Philadelphia takes the division. Down 31-10 with half a quarter left, the Eagles engineered a remarkable comeback, including QB scrambles, an onside kick, and a last-second punt return TD, to win 38-31. I don't have a problem calling this the Miracle at the New Meadowlands, but the people claiming it was greater than the original, I think, undersell just how improbable Philly's 1978 last-second victory was. Twenty-five years from now, more people will remember the original than this one.

Sunday was Michael Vick's 10th career 100-yard rushing game. Randall Cunningham, Bobby Douglass, and Donovan McNabb are tied for second among QBs, with three each. A couple years ago, I made a list of the greatest pass/run double-threats in NFL history. I'm not sure yet how we should evaluate Vick's passing, but he's clearly the greatest running QB in history.

4. Baltimore Ravens [5] — Ray Rice rushed for 153 yards, with another 80 receiving, 233 total yards and 2 TDs. The rest of the Ravens combined for a total of 118 yards, about half as many as Rice. The win moved Baltimore into a tie for the AFC North lead and probably guaranteed at least a wild card. The remaining games are against division rivals Cincinnati and Cleveland, who have a combined record of 8-20, which includes wins over each other.

5. San Diego Chargers [8] — Good news for the Chargers' playoff hopes: their remaining games are against the Bengals and Broncos, perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL. Bad news for the Chargers' playoff hopes: both games are on the road, where San Diego is 2-4. Vincent Jackson finally returned to the lineup, and did so with a bang, going over 100 yards and scoring 3 touchdowns (a career high). I don't want to be one of those people whining about how A.J. Smith destroyed the Chargers' season, and San Diego's biggest problem has been special teams, not offense, but the Chargers are 6-3 since Marcus McNeill rejoined them, after starting 2-3 without him.

6. Green Bay Packers [7] — Mike McCarthy lost his nerve. How do you go from a daring game-opening onside kick to a meek-as-can-be field goal from the 1-yard line? It's the fourth quarter, 13:52 left in the game, and you're up 24-21 with 4th-and-goal at the 1, facing the Patriots. Go for it. For the love of pete, go for it. League-wide fourth down percentage in 2010 is 50.7% — there's a better than even chance you'll get in. If you do, you're up 10. Even if you fall short, New England takes over at the 1-yard line, and you have a great chance of getting the ball back with favorable field position. Cowardly call, a four-point swing. The Packers lost by four, 31-27.

7. Pittsburgh Steelers [4] — Missing Troy Polamalu, they allowed 22 points to a team that had scored a total of 16 in its previous two games. People talk about Ben Roethlisberger as an elite quarterback, but Polamalu is the most valuable player on the team. Big Ben is a very good quarterback, but he's in that second tier, not elite. I don't understand, when Rashard Mendenhall is having a good day (100 yards, 5.9 average, TD) and Ben is not (78.2 rating, 3 sacks), why you pass 49 times and run 23. For as long as this team has won anything, it has won with running and defense. While Roethlisberger was suspended, the Steelers went 3-1 (.750) against opponents who are 36-20 (.643). Since Ben returned, they're 7-3 (.700) against an easier schedule, 71-69 (.507). Ben is a better QB than Charlie Batch, but the Steelers have a better chance to win with Batch and a 50:50 run-pass ratio than Ben and twice as many passes as runs.

8. New Orleans Saints [6] — Faced a team with a winning record for the first time since Halloween, and snapped a six-game win streak. Missing Chris Ivory, the Saints rushed for just 27 yards, their lowest total since 2003. Reggie Bush carried four times for -4 yards, though he did catch 7 passes for 36. Ivory is the only RB on the team to run effectively this season, and the club needs him healthy for the playoffs. Ivory averages 5.3 yards per carry, far more than Julius Jones (4.3), Ladell Betts (3.3), Pierre Thomas (3.2), and Bush (3.1).

9. New York Giants [9] — Punter Matt Dodge has been a target of criticism all season, but it may have reached a boil with his game-turning punt to DeSean Jackson in the final seconds of this week's contest. For the season, Dodge is 31st in net average. He's had one kick blocked, two returned for touchdowns, and is one of only four punters with more touchbacks than fair catches. Dodge has been awful all season, and his poor play could keep the Giants out of the playoffs.

10. Chicago Bears [10] — Looked great on an icy field against the deflated Vikings. This worries me: Chicago's offense ranks 30th in a 32-team league. The Bears average fewer yards per game (292) than the Browns, 100 per game fewer than the Chargers and Eagles. They're 28th in 3rd down percentage (32.9). The Bears actually have the fewest combined third and fourth down conversions in the NFL. The defense and special teams are fantastic, and the offense isn't giving games away, but in the playoffs, I don't know if it will be enough.

11. Dallas Cowboys [12] — Fourth straight game decided by 3 points. Since the bye, eight of the Cowboys' 11 opponents have scored at least 30 points. Washington became the third team this season to score a season-high facing the Dallas defense. This has to be an offseason priority. The Cowboys could use a little help on the offensive line, but other than that the offense is great — Jason Witten is having an all-pro quality season. The defense needs work.

12. New York Jets [18] — Last year, the Jets lost a game to the Dolphins because of atrocious special teams. This season, the Jets's special teams are among the league's best, Nick Folk notwithstanding. Consider this week's win over Pittsburgh. The Steelers had 100 more yards and 50% more first downs. But the Jets had a kickoff return TD, and Steve Weatherford's punting led to great field position and a safety. His first punt actually was rather poor, a 32-yard net. The other three were all downed inside the 10.

13. Indianapolis Colts [14] — This week, Peyton Manning became the sixth player to complete 400 passes in a season. He's now at 407, and likely to break the record (440), set by Drew Brees in 2007. This is not a good thing. Defenses have taken away everything deep, and Manning's gotten so used to checking down that I think he's come to accept it, and the team's offense has become less explosive. Of course, injuries to the receiving corps play a role in that, too. Austin Collie suffered his second concussion of the season this week, a scary knockout that had him lying facedown on the field.

14. Kansas City Chiefs [16] — The Chiefs are undefeated at home, six down, two to go. If they win those last two, they'll win the AFC West. Three Chiefs had big defensive games this week. Derrick Johnson, quietly having a very good season, knocked down three passes and was in on 13 tackles. Kendrick Lewis intercepted two passes, and someone named Wallace Gilberry had three sacks and forced a fumble. Gilberry apparently is a third-year defensive end, undrafted out of Alabama in 2008.

15. Jacksonville Jaguars [11] — Daryl Smith's line against Indianapolis: 13 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 tackles for loss, 1 sack, 1 pass defensed. That's quite a game. Unfortunately, most of his teammates didn't show up. The Jags can still make the playoffs; they're actually tied with Indianapolis for the division lead, and could move into sole possession of first if the Colts (who are 3-4 on the road) lose at Oakland (5-2 at home).

16. Oakland Raiders [13] — Gained more than twice as many yards as Denver (502-235), and twice as many first downs (20-9). It's not going to happen, but Oakland mathematically could still win the AFC West. If the Raiders win both remaining games, the Chiefs lose in Week 16, and the Chargers lose either of their remaining games, the Silver and Black will qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2002. He won't get many Coach of the Year votes, but Tom Cable has done a phenomenal job rebuilding this team.

17. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [15] — Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount played well, but the Bucs settled for a pair of late field goals and didn't play defense, losing in overtime to Detroit. Tampa is 1-3 in the last month, and would be 0-4 if Washington weren't so good at finding ways to lose. If Tampa edges the Giants and Packers for a wild card spot, I am boycotting the first round of the NFC playoffs. The Saints against whoever wins the NFC West, and Tampa playing at Chicago or Philly? The Pro Bowl is more competitive.

18. Buffalo Bills [22] — Before the bye, Buffalo's opponents averaged 32.2 points. Since, that average is just 21.3. In fact, since Week 8, it's 19.4, which is top-10 level defense. Some of that is a statistical illusion created by the schedule (tough opponents early, Browns and Dolphins late), but some of it is genuine improvement. Buffalo looks suspiciously like an average team the last two months.

19. Miami Dolphins [17] — 31st in scoring. The Dolphins have 22 TDs this year. Carolina has 16, and everyone else has at least 25. This week, Miami couldn't get field goals, either. Dan Carpenter probably lost an all-pro spot with his 0/4 performance, even though all the attempts were at least 48 yards. The Dolphins are 1-6 at home, but 6-1 on the road, one of the most remarkable splits you will ever see.

20. Detroit Lions [25] — First road win since October 2007. Is Calvin Johnson the best wide receiver in the NFL? No, of course not. It's Andre Johnson or Roddy White. But those guys have good quarterbacks, and defenders actually have to cover other players on the team. Megatron is Detroit's only weapon on offense. Defenses know it, and they still can't stop him. If the Lions stay healthy, they'll go 8-8 next season.

21. Tennessee Titans [28] — Broke a six-game losing streak, with good games from both the offense and defense. Jason Babin is 2nd in the AFC with 12 sacks. He deserves serious all-pro consideration, and it will be a travesty if he doesn't make the Pro Bowl. Chris Johnson update: CJ2K now has 1,267 rushing yards. He can meet his goal of 2,500 if he averages 617 over the last two weeks.

22. San Francisco 49ers [19] — No amount of officiating was going to turn a 34-7 loss into a win, but a number of big calls hurt the 49ers. A replay challenge reversed Alex Smith's touchdown, and on the next play, San Francisco turned the ball over on downs. Justin Smith got ejected for pushing the umpire. Tarell Brown, and this was the one really bad call, got a 15-yard penalty for a late hit that looked clean. A facemask penalty nullified a return TD. The 49ers were only flagged for one more penalty (5) than the Chargers (4), but they were big calls, not delay of game.

That said, San Francisco would have lost this game no matter who was reffing. Both the offense and defense played poorly, but let's assign plenty of blame to the coaching staff. Philip Rivers posted a 150.5 passer rating against the Niners, partly because they never figured out how to cover Vincent Jackson. Hey guys, I think you need to make an adjustment. This dude is killing you. The offensive play-calling stinks. You have got the put the ball in the hands of your offensive playmakers, guys like Vernon Davis and Brian Westbrook. It never happened. They were never going to beat San Diego, but what a disappointing performance.

23. Houston Texans [20] — With their two best defensive players (Mario Williams and DeMeco Ryans) on IR, things have just fallen apart. Houston is 1-7 since the bye, and has allowed at least 29 points in all seven losses. In Week 16, we'll see if they can make Tim Tebow look good. The bet here is yes.

24. Minnesota Vikings [21] — Punter Chris "Nostradamus" Kluwe, this Sunday: "The field is as hard as concrete an hour and a half after they took the tarp off, and anyone that hits their head is getting a concussion." Two players suffered concussions before halftime. A terrific crowd showed up for the Vikings' first outdoor home game since 1981, but I wonder which team really had the homefield advantage. Minnesota had the crowd, but was clearly thrown off by the icy playing surface. Chicago, used to playing outdoors in bad weather, seemed to handle the conditions far better.

25. Cleveland Browns [23] — Lost the battle of Ohio to their cross-state rivals, ending Cincinnati's remarkable 10-game skid. The Browns' defense has improved this year, but the offense still stinks. They need linemen and receivers. A couple years ago, they had Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr.

26. St. Louis Rams [24] — Lost the battle of Missouri to their cross-state rivals. The Rams are 2-4 since the bye, with their only wins over Arizona and Denver.

27. Seattle Seahawks [26] — Lead the NFC West on tie-breakers, at least for now. As a division, the NFC West is 12-26 (.316) against the rest of the NFL, and has been outscored by a total of 300 points, an average of 7.9 per game. The Seahawks specifically are below average at basically every position. There's nothing they're good at, and nowhere they don't need help.

28. Washington Redskins [27] — Rex Grossman should not be starting for an NFL team. Bears fans became so used to his inconsistency that they used the terms "Good Rex" and "Bad Rex" to describe his play. Facing the 31st-ranked scoring defense in the NFL, Grossman looked okay this week, but it still wasn't pretty. The team's offense has been terrible this season, mostly due to injuries and offensive line play. Mike Shanahan is using Donovan McNabb as a scapegoat. It's ugly and unprofessional, and it's ultimately going to backfire.

29. Cincinnati Bengals [31] — Won a game, lost T.O. That's a trade-off they'll take. This was Cincinnati's first win since September. Cedric Benson was the hero, with a season-high 150 rushing yards. Andre Caldwell led the Bengals in catches (4) and receiving yards (89).

30. Carolina Panthers [32] — Which is better, the Falcons' B-team, or the Panthers A-team? We may find out in Week 17. The Panthers beat Arizona this week, and will face Atlanta in Week 17, when the Falcons may rest their starters. Jonathan Stewart rushed for 137 yards and John Kasay kicked four field goals. The 41-year-old Kasay, in his 20th season, is having one of his best years. Kasay hasn't missed from under 40 yards, and a 55-yarder in Week 7 tied the second-longest field goal of his career.

31. Arizona Cardinals [29] — Started 3-2, but they're 1-8 since the bye, despite a schedule full of cupcakes. The Cardinals have lost to the Seahawks (twice), Vikings, 49ers, Rams, and Panthers, all of whom have losing records. This team won a playoff game last year.

32. Denver Broncos [30] — You play to win the game. Hello? Yes, Tim Tebow did okay on Sunday. But if he really wants to help the team, he should be playing safety. Denver's passing game, with Kyle Orton and Brandon Lloyd, is the one part of the team that has been above average this season. The running game ranks 29th and they have the worst defense in the NFL. Kyle Orton has looked like a top-10 quarterback this season. Replacing him with a guy who can't throw is cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:16 PM | Comments (1)

The Tennis Christmas Wish List 2010

Let me first start by wishing you all a very Merry Christmas, a happy Channukah, a great Festivus, and happy Kwanza! It's that time of year again, and once again, my Tennis Christmas Wish List.

Now the economy is picking up, but it's still not great, so I'm going to do the prudent thing and limit my list this year. Instead of 10 items, I only desire seven. It's a good, "auspicious" number, and I'm sure there will still be more then enough to discuss about it.

Each year for nearly decade, I've been creating this list as my public thoughts and feelings about where I hope the professional game will go in the coming year, and something about the products that I think will make a splash. I also make it a point to highlight something in the tennis world that few notice or may know of and invite the readers to explore. Of course, I also do it in hopes someone who normally buys me a gift will read it and supply something from it. So if any of my friends are reading this...

Okay, without further ado, in ascending order, here goes:

7. A Dunlop Biomimetic 200 Tour. Dunlop was once the king of tennis rackets, having produced the Maxply for nearly three quarters of a century and dominating the wood racket era. In recent years, they have had a spate of hits and misses, but this year, I think they have a hit. I tested the Biomimetic 200 Tour and while I found it to be true to the Dunlop name and had the very familiar Dunlop grip shape, there was something a little different with it.

I'm intrigued by the incorporation of the technology developed from studying nature and natural materials to come up with a racket that moves through the air smoother and faster. I'm not exactly sure if I could detect the improvement brought by the Aeroskin technology (based on the surface of the skin of a shark), but the racket did feel smooth and quick, especially for a tour model. I don't particularly like super tacky grips, but the Gecko-Tac grip did work as advertised. Overall, a good frame. Oh, and my grip size is 4⅜.

6. More Caroline Wozniacki. I'm asking for this one very hard this year. At times toward the end of the season, she was seen sporting leg braces and stabilizers, and as we have seen on the WTA Tour recently, the sophomore jinx usually hits. With Ana Ivanovic seeming to languish, and with U.S. stars like Melanie Oudin not yet ready for regular top-10 level play, I'm looking to see current world number one Wozniacki continue to improve and hold on to her spot.

It would be refreshing to have a consistent and new face leading the women's game and also creating the possibility for a great rivalry in the future. She's still young and can be inconsistent, but she comes into 2011 better rested and now major tournament tested. I'm looking for her to make at least the semis in Australia and hoping for a final appearance at Wimbledon in 2011. Father Christmas, can you hear me?

5. A major tournament victory for Andy Murray, preferably at Wimbledon. Let's face it, Murray has been hanging on and not quite living up to his potential. He always seems to make great runs in the big tournaments, especially at Wimbledon, only to fall short around quarterfinal time. Britain will be alive this year, as Prince William and Kate Middleton will be tying the not in April, which will only fan the UK fans flaming desires to see someone home-grown, or nearly home-grown, walk away with the title at the All England Lawn Tennis Club.

Seventy two years is a long time to have a drought, especially given that for many years England gave birth to a host of great champions. England also gave us Australia, which of course dominated tennis from the mid-1950s until today. Murray has much more talent than Tim Henman ever had, but he doesn't appear to have the drive yet. I never saw a match at Wimbledon where Henman didn't realize that he had to play to his destiny. I still cannot forget his three-day loss to Goran Ivanisovic in 2001. I won't lament everything that happened, but had Henman beat Ivanisovic, he would have been the champion for sure.

So this year, Christmas Man, please bring Andy Murray a career season. Please give him a rocket serve, deep, penetrating ground strokes, the volley of Ken Rosewall, and the speed of the Flash. I'm not asking for too much here, and it's not that big of a stretch. So please bring this in 2011.

4. A pair of Vibram Five Finger Bikila running/fitness shoes. I have been seeing these funny, five-toed, gecko-like shoes more and more lately on runners in my area. While there are other brands, the Vibram company seems to be making the most models and has the best product reviews. I've never tried to play tennis in them, and would wonder if it would help or hurt your ankles given they don't have ankle support, but I'm guessing that if you are moving more like nature intended, injury should be less of a risk. I mean, could you imagine if you put a cheetah in boots? Exactly. I also need to start running more again, as I'm not as young as I used to be and need to keep up with the exercise. I think these shoes will help. I also think that if more of the WTA Tour players did their sprints and running in these while they worked out, there would be fewer injuries and a more entertaining tour.

3. A Grand Slam. This is going to be a challenging year for tennis, especially for tennis tournament attendance. Globally, the economy is down and the banking industry, one of the biggest sponsors of tennis, is not doing as well as was expected at this point. People have to make choices of where they will spend their money. Wouldn't it be great if we could have a whole tennis year building to the U.S. Open? Imagine the stories we journalists could write. Imagine the coverage it would get from TV. So I'm going to put this one on Andy Murray or Roger Federer. Let's see one of them win in Australia, and then at Roland Garros, then at Wimbledon, and then come into NYC with all the history riding on their back. I'd like to see another one in my lifetime on the men's side. Santa, it has just been way too long since Rod Laver and 1969.

2. Instant replay in key matches. I hate to admit it, but limiting replay in matches to player challenges has really made the game actually suck. Not that I want to see a three-set match go 22 hours because of replay, but I think at critical points a booth review, like is done in the NFL, should be made permanent. It will change the individual player pace, but I think a quick look at calls at the key points in a match would at least make it fair. Either that or eliminate it completely. You either live with the human eye or you don't. It wasn't that long ago that a net judge used to call all the "net" calls. Now they've been replaced with a sensor and "eagle eye." So why not start to eliminate the line and baseline judges almost completely? Heck, it will make it harder for Serena to yell at someone.

And last, but not least...

1. A Daniela Hantuchova calendar. Okay, its really shallow. But I've seen some shots from it. It's very good, without being over the top. I've read a lot of tennis books this last year, and I have seen a ton of professional sports calendars. Daniela's takes the cake. Tasteful and very artistic. It also doesn't hurt that all of the proceeds go to the House of the Smile Children's Hospital of Cambodia to help children with HIV. Professional sports is loaded with athletes who cannot see beyond themselves. It's nice to recognize a young tennis player who realizes that there is something more important out there. I'm pretty sure I'm not getting one in my stocking, but hopefully some of you will.

In case you still have last-minute shopping to do, there are a few professional tennis players who have their own businesses, as well, so I encourage you to check out their stores for gift ideas. Of course there is always Alina Jidkova and her BeMyPearl.com jewelry designs. Serena and Venus have their clothing lines. Many of the players have their own fragrances. Roger Federer, Maria Sharapova, heck, even Rafa Nadal is the new face of Lanvin Sport fragrance. Or maybe you can purchase your tennis fan or significant other tickets to a tournament or tennis exhibition.

So there you have it, my Tennis Christmas Wish List for 2010. I'd like to wish all of the professional tennis men and women a great holiday season and much success in the new year. I'd also like to thank you, the readers of Sports Central. For another year you have blessed us with your readership and many of you have added your commentary and insight, which makes Sports Central the premier sports website.

Merry Christmas and happy New Year!

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 12:27 PM | Comments (0)

December 20, 2010

Forgotten Mavericks, Spurs Are Rising

The NBA's Eastern Conference has been the dominant conference in terms of attention this season. The East has the LeBron-ified Heat loudly and finally establishing a record worthy of its three superstars. The Celtics have grabbed headlines as they have beaten the Heat and just about everyone else this year.

The Orlando Magic are talked about because with Dwight Howard they are not only a constant threat to win it all, they are the team many are waiting for to establish a rivalry with the Heat. Orlando's recent overhaul is also garnering the headlines.

The Knicks are riding a hot streak and being hailed as the prodigal franchise that will bring the NBA back to American consciousness. The East also has the Bulls, who are lurking with a lot of talent and have what looks to be a possible long playoff run in them.

The headlines in the Western Conference are the Lakers, who are worthy of attention as Kobe Bryant pursues his sixth championship, and Kevin Durant's Oklahoma City Thunder. Durant has established himself as one of the best players in the game and last year's Thunder vs. Lakers series was one to remember.

But two teams flying under the radar are the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks. The NBA season is past the quarter mark and the Mavericks and Spurs are winning without dominating the headlines. How have they quietly put together their big seasons and will they be able to sustain their high level of play through June? And when will ESPN and others start to pay more attention and give the Spurs and Mavericks their due?

Both Dallas and San Antonio are dominating in terms of their records. The way they are playing and how they are winning games indicates that both teams could make long runs in the playoffs. Each team has veteran leadership and intangibles that could mean a ring in June.

Dallas Mavericks

Dirk Nowitzki is having sensational NBA season. He was named the Western Conference Player of the Week for Dec. 6-12. It was the second time in three weeks he won the award. Nowitzki led the Mavericks to a 3-0 record during this time, with wins over Golden State, New Jersey, and Utah. Nowitzki averaged 25.7 points and 9 rebounds per game and shot .700 from the field (18-22 FGs), .667 from three-point range (6-9 3FGs), and .789 from the free throw line (15-19 FTs). Nowitzki received his first Player of the Week for Nov. 22-28. During this time, he led the Mavericks to four wins in five nights.

Dallas has been scoring early and often during the season. With the 103-98 victory over Portland on Dec. 15, Dallas moved to 13-0 on the year when they scored 100+ points in a game. In those 13 wins, Dallas shot .492 from the floor, .360 from three-point range, and .811 from the line.

The Mavericks' offense has not been the only story, however. Often a team that scores a lot gives up a lot of points, but during their 14 100+ games, Dallas held opponents to an average of 94.9 points and .440 shooting. Dallas is proving a team that scores a lot can still play defense.

Dallas is also playing with a deeper bench this season. The current Lakers bench appears fairly deep and the addition of Joe Smith gives them more size, but Dallas has put together a bench that could challenge them. Jason Terry and Shawn Marion have each started multiple games for the Mavericks this season and would probably be starters on most teams.

Dallas is 7-1 on the year when Terry and Marion both come off the bench to score in double figures. The two players have combined for 25-plus points off the bench on eight occasions, including two games in which they totaled 30 points or more together. Terry has scored 20-plus points seven times in 2010-11. Marion has posted two doubles-doubles this season. Terry is averaging 15.8 points (second-highest scoring average on the team), 4.4 assists, and 1.6 steals in 32.0 minutes. Marion is averaging 10.6 points and 5.9 rebounds in 26.2 minutes per game this year.

Dallas has plenty of solid veterans. The Mavericks have three players who rank in the top 10 of active NBA players with the most double-doubles in their careers. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Jason Kidd's 478 career double-doubles rank fourth among active players, followed by Marion's 382 career double-doubles (fifth). Nowitzki's 350 double-doubles rank ninth on the current list. Dallas is poised to make a run at a title with its veterans and deep bench.

San Antonio

The Spurs have a long history of domination in the Western Conference. The team's success begins and ends with Tim Duncan. Tim Duncan is in his 14th season with the Spurs and with him, they have compiled the best record in the NBA at 740-318 and a winning percentage of .699. This is the best mark of any team in professional sports during this time period. With Duncan, they have won four championships and six division titles.

This year, Duncan is averaging 13 points a game, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks in 29 minutes. He has eight double-doubles and ranks 13th in the NBA in rebounds and eighth in blocks per game.

Manu Ginobli is having the kind of season that is garnering him early MVP mention. He is averaging 20 points, almost 4 rebounds, nearly 5 assists, and almost 2 steals a game in 32 minutes. He is shooting .467 from the field and .374 for the three-point line and .887 from the charity stripe.

Ginobili has scored in double figures in 24 of 25 games, while averaging 5 points higher than his career scoring average. He has tallied 13 20-plus point performances in 25 games this season.

The Spurs are anchored by their coach, Gregg Popovich. He has fourth best winning percentage in NBA history at .675. He ranks seventh in playoffs winning percentage (.606) and is only behind Phil Jackson among active coaches.

This year, the Spurs have been successful this season both at home and on the road. Through the first 15 home games this season, the Spurs are 13-2. The Spurs opened the season with an eight-game road winning streak.

Dallas isn't the only team in Texas with a potent offense. As a team, the Spurs rank first in three-point field goal percentage (.414), third in assists per game (23.7), fifth in points per game (105.8), seventh in field goal percentage (.471), and seventh in free throw percentage (.788). If the Spurs were to continue shooting .414 from the three-point line, it would rank as the second-best in NBA history. From 12/5 through 12/12 this year, the Spurs won four consecutive games by at least 15 points. It tied a team record for consecutive 15-point victories, which had been done three times before.

The Bottom Line

Each team seems poised to make a run to the finals and both have solid coaches, but the Spurs clearly have a Texas-sized advantage in Gregg Popovich. Rick Carlisle is capable of taking a team to the 50-win plateau, but the real test will come in the playoffs. Carlisle's overall winning percentage is .593 and he is .654 since taking over in Dallas in 2008-09. His regular season record is excellent and he has taken teams to conference finals, but has yet to make it to the NBA Finals. Greg Popovich has proven he can take a team to the finals and win championships.

This could be the year Mavericks or Spurs take the Western Conference title from the Lakers. As the Spurs and Mavericks continue to win, the real question is will anybody outside of Texas notice? Is the sporting world watching a repeat of the baseball season when the Rangers found themselves in the World Series and only a handful of people predicted their appearance?

The Lakers resemble the Yankees as the favorites, the Thunder look like the red-hot Rays, and the Utah Jazz look like the reliable and perennial playoff team that is the Minnesota Twins. In the end, the Rangers found themselves the center of the baseball world with the San Francisco Giants and come June, the Mavericks or the Spurs could force the sporting world to book plane tickets back to Texas.

Posted by Vito Curcuru at 12:02 PM | Comments (0)

A Case For Bowl Contraction

Well, here we are with another bowl season upon us, the supposed "postseason" of college football. But I'm not as interested in this bowl season as I have been in the past. Why? Mainly two reasons: the BCS still sucks (even worse than before) and over-saturation of the market.

I'm always a guy who likes to look at history, so I thought I'd go back to my favorite era of college football, the 1980s. The 1980 season, to be precise. I looked at how many teams there were, how many bowls there were, and what the records of the teams playing in the bowls were. Plus, I looked at how many "bowl-eligible" teams, by today's standards, there were that didn't make it to a postseason game. Then I compared it to this season. My, how much the landscape has changed in 30 years.

Back then, there were 91 Division 1-A schools and 15 bowl games. However, there were only 29 slots as the Independence Bowl pitted the 1-AA Southland Conference winner against an at-large 1-A school. That year, McNeese State played Southern Mississippi and lost 16-14 (but I digress). That works out to roughly a third of D-1 programs getting to a bowl game. Of those 29 bowl teams, only five had seven wins or less, or 17 percent of those playing. Three teams with seven wins did not make bowl games, and five six-win teams were left out of postseason competition. On a side note, half the Pac-10 was on probation, so three teams that were ineligible could have been selected ahead of some of the other schools with less wins, most notably UCLA (9-2) and USC (8-3).

Undefeated Georgia ended up winning the national championship that year by virtue of a win over 9-1-1 Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. As with any year, there was some controversy as to who should play the Bulldogs for the title. Four other teams had one loss, but no ties: Pittsburgh, North Carolina, and Baylor were all 10-1, and BYU was 11-1. Some fans thought Notre Dame's prestige and tradition landed them in that game and would have preferred to see Pitt play Georgia. But it probably wouldn't have mattered, as Heisman Trophy winner Herschel Walker and his mates were practically unstoppable that year. Again, I digress.

The point is that the bowl landscape was so much simpler 30 years ago. The teams that deserved to get in, got in. Those that didn't, didn't. There were no sixth-place teams in their conference going to a bowl game. Rarely did a six-win team go to a bowl, and the seasons were shorter, so it was tougher to get six or seven wins. And,the bowls actually had names back then. It was the Cotton Bowl and the Gator Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl. Now we have bowls that don't even have a name, just the sponsor's, i.e. the Champs Sports Bowl and the Meineke Car Care Bowl and the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl. Not only that, but some of the sponsorships change so frequently that it's hard to keep track.

So, since I've already started addressing the present, let's look at the statistics. There are 119 D-1 schools and 35 bowl games. That means that 59 percent of them get to the postseason. That would be like the NFL expanding its playoffs to 18 teams. We're already in jeopardy of having a playoff team with a losing record (NFC West champ), but could you imagine of you piled on six more teams in the playoffs? It would be ridiculous, which is what I think of the current bowl landscape. Of the 70 teams that go to bowls, 32 of them have seven wins or less. That's 46 percent of postseason teams having a .500 or barely better record. And I didn't even figure out how many of those teams had losing records in their conference. At a glance, some of them could only muster three wins in an eight- or nine-game conference schedule. Yet they're considered bowl-worthy. It's out of hand.

I mean, really. Look at some of these matchups. Now, I mean no disrespect to the schools or their supporters, but most of these bowls don't intrigue me at all, and I consider myself a pretty diehard college football fan. Does anybody really care about the New Orleans Bowl played on Saturday between Troy and Ohio? Might as well rename it the "Nobody is Watching Bowl." What about Toledo and Florida International in the aforementioned Little Caesar's Bowl? I can guarantee my DVR won't be set to record that one. Even some of the pairings between larger schools don't raise the hair on the back of my neck. Does anyone outside of Seattle really think that the Washington Huskies stand a chance against Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, or Arizona against Oklahoma State in the Alamo Bowl? And what about some of the teams that barely made the cut going against each other? BYU and UTEP, both 6-6, in the New Mexico Bowl, or SMU (7-6) against Army (6-6) aren't much more compelling than a regular season game.

Now I know that the bowls are all about the money. That's why there are big corporate sponsors and so freaking many of them. But here's the deal. Cut back on the number of bowl games, and add a playoff system. A playoff could generate just as much, if not more, money as does the current system, especially if it was integrated into the bowls. I've written about this before, so I won't waste space recounting it here, but it could work.

I read an article this week where Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban is pitching a playoff system that he would finance personally, and it's actually getting some attention. Whatever the case, a playoff is the only way to go to determine a real national champion. I think this year's BCS outlook is good — the two best teams got in with Oregon and Auburn, and TCU might have something to say if they beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, but this year it worked, at least at the top.

"What do you mean, at the top?" you might ask. Well, I seem to have a beef with the BCS almost every year, and this year is no exception. The problem lies with the automatic qualifier clause. God bless Connecticut for making a BCS bowl game, but do they really deserve to be there? The last time I checked, the BCS bowls were made for the top-ranked teams in the BCS. Let's see where UConn stacks up. Hold on here ... let me look again. Hmmm ... I can't seem to find them in the ... oh, that's right. They're not ranked in the BCS, not even in the top 25! What's up with that?

I don't consider myself a Boise State apologist, although I guess I do my fair share of arguing their case when they're being considered for championship contention, but I think they got completely hosed by the BCS this year, thanks to the automatic qualifier. Boise State should be in a BCS bowl, but because mediocre UConn won the Big East, they get a BCS game. Yet they're 8-4 compared to BSU's 11-1 and not even listed in the BCS rankings. Again, no disrespect to Connecticut and their season, but surely there's a better way to allow the teams that are actually in the upper part of the BCS standings to actually play in a BCS bowl. As far as Michigan State is concerned, which is 9th in the BCS and a spot ahead of Boise State, I agree with the policy of not having more than two schools from the same conference in the BCS games. That makes sense, but keeping out a team that has fared far better than one that got in is ludicrous.

Don't get me wrong, though. I don't think this bowl season is a total disaster. I'm actually looking forward to all the BCS bowls and a few others, like Alabama and Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, but most of these matchups are *yawn* making me pine for the good old days. Oh, and one final thing, since I have two local schools playing for national championships this year with Eastern Washington in the 1-AA title game and Oregon in the BCS championship, I'll sign off by yelling, "GO EAGLES and GO DUCKS!"

Posted by Adam Russell at 11:20 AM | Comments (2)

December 19, 2010

The Next Generation of the Pats/Jets Rivalry

To help illustrate just how important the New England Patriots' recent win (see also: romping, annihilation, ass-kicking) over the New York Jets was, in addition to just how back-and-forth the overall battle for AFC East supremacy has become between the two recently, we need to go back in time. For those of you who've just started watching football or simply can't remember things very well due to too much whiskey or simply living in the Philadelphia area, it hasn't always been this way.

From 2003-2008, the Patriots managed to win the AFC East crown every single year in that time period, save for 2008, when the Miami Dolphins finally claimed the mantle. They went 77-19 in that time span in the regular season and also went to three different Super Bowls (2003, 2004, and 2007), winning two of them, while losing the other, despite going 19-1 in their famously tragic, near-perfect 2007 season.

During that same time period, the Jets found a way to go a paltry 43-53, complete with two 4-12 seasons in 2005 and 2007. Although there were a few solid 10-6 seasons sprinkled throughout, there was nothing in the way of divisional titles or playoff wins (save for a wild card victory over the Chargers in 2004). Suffice it to say, Jets fans and ownership alike were famished and thirsty for a return to greatness.

Then Rex Ryan was hired. And they got their wish.

It didn't take him long to stir up the pot (unsurprisingly), as he almost immediately made it known that the Jets would not be kneeling down before the "mighty" Patriots and kissing their Super Bowl rings any longer. Not that this actually happened or anything as the comments were proverbial (if you will), but you can't argue that the new coaches comments weren't dramatic and exciting. They almost instantly caused a completely transcended rivalry between the two teams. In playground speak, "it was on!"

With the help of ESPN playing Ryan's smack talk on constant loop every 20-30 minutes all offseason long, the Jets/Patriots rivalry began to closely resemble Red Sox/Yankees levels. Not only did Ryan excel in talking trash, but he managed to completely transform the environment and attitude of the entire organization. Not only that, but he also managed to quickly silence the many doubters claiming he was all talk with the help of a Week 2 victory over the mighty Patriots, 16-9.

As far as Jets fans were concerned, this Rex Ryan was the second coming hybrid of Weeb Ewbank, Joe Walton, and Bill Parcells. The man literally could do no wrong and since he was so charming and witty during his media appearances, everyone throughout the nation knew it.

Although the team would lose their rematch with the Pats in Week 11, 31-14 (and ultimately cede ownership of the divisional title to the Patriots yet again), expectations soared even higher when the Jets fought and battled their way through to the AFC Championship Game before finally falling victim to the Colts, 30-17. Surprisingly, the Patriots were knocked out — or rather, to use a more realistic description, were completely annihilated and destroyed — by the Baltimore Ravens in the wild card round, 33-14. Despite the lack of a divisional crown, it appeared that the Jets had won round one of the new rivalry.

Heading into 2010, the general consensus and expectations about the two teams had flipped completely. It was now the Jets who were the golden boy favorites to win the division, thanks to an excellent running game, a solid offensive line, the best cornerback in the game in Darrelle Revis and a seemingly future stud at quarterback in Mark Sanchez. Further bolstering public confidence in the Jets were their frequent and aggressive offseason player acquisitions. These additions included free agent signees LaDainian Tomlinson (at running back) and Jason Taylor (at defensive end), as well as wide receiver Santonio Holmes and cornerback Antonio Cromartie via trade.

On the Patriots' side of the fence, it was comparably less noisy but still in line with the team's overall personality. The team's primary free agent additions consisted of veterans Leigh Bodden (at cornerback) and Gerard Warren (at defensive tackle). Hybrid linebacker Adalius Thomas' progressively negative behavior finally came to a head and he was given a bus ticket out of town. As was tight end Benjamin Watson, but in a much more businesslike manner.

Perhaps the biggest reason for the role shifts was the Patriots young, inexperienced defense. While the Jets surrounded their young playmakers with top-tier veteran leadership on both sides of the ball, the Patriots defense was loaded with players just two to three years out of college in addition to straight-up rookies as well. Coach Bill Belichick's successful strategy of surrounding his young defensive playmakers with veteran leadership alongside the likes of safety Rodney Harrison and linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel was no longer very effective due to player retirements or draft-day deals (in the case of Vrabel).

Even though the Jets were the primary favorite to finally win the AFC East at long last, the Patriots were still expected to be a very talented team. The vast majority of NFL pundits even had them as a playoff caliber club in 2010. With only a few veterans remaining on the Patriots who had experienced the teams past success, it was apparent that not all of the young players understood what it truly took in order to succeed consistently enough to put the team in a position for a Super Bowl run. This was never a problem for the Patriots in Super Bowl years of the past.

Belichick's method of drilling and practicing situational football in order to be ready and acclimated for every potential outcome demands a certain kind of player. A player who can withstand the mental rigors of memorizing and replaying dozens of different plays and assignments at any one time -- and then reacting in a split-second based on that knowledge. And let's not forget studying game film. That's the coach's number one requirement when deciding who is able to play and succeed on his team. A high football intelligence and a penchant for studying and analyzing game tape.

At the time of the Jets/Patriots Week 2 game, it was apparent that the young, inexperienced New England defense still had a long way to go before they'd be able to truly utilize and take advantage of Belichick's defensive genius. The Jets offense had absolutely no problem revealing this to the world that Sunday. No problem at all.

With all of the story lines, projections and expectations bubbling over from the offseason, the Patriots/Jets Week 2 matchup was arguably the first "big game" of the year. When all was said and done, it appeared that the many predictions crowning the Jets as the new team to beat in the AFC East were indeed going to come to fruition. And with one of the NFL's toughest schedules going forward, the Patriots were all but written off the map, thanks to being trounced and nearly outclassed by their divisional rival in just the second week of the season.

The Jets were the darlings of the NFL world and sports media for several weeks following the game, and with good reason. They looked like everything they said they were and were backing up their trash talk with action. And swagger.

But in a turn of events that couldn't have been scripted any more dramatically, the Patriots didn't crumble and managed to hold it together in the wake of the Randy Moss saga and Logan Mankins' holdout and still run the table (save for an ass-whipping at the hands of the Browns in Week 9). This naturally setup a playoff-esque rematch in Foxboro in Week 13 in which we'd finally get our answer as to who would rule the AFC East roost this year at long-last.

As we all know, the Patriots outpointed, outplayed, and out-executed the Jets in every fashion in route to a 45-3 coming out party. Presently, it appears as if the Patriots will end up on top — both literally, as they're the new, overwhelming Super Bowl favorite, and figuratively, in regards to the teams' rivalry. However, if we've learned anything from our jaunt back in time, it's that nothing is forever and nothing is for certain.

While we'll have to wait and see who will eventually win this year's bragging rights in the rivalry, one thing at least is for certain. And that is that the Jets/Patriots rivalry has quickly become one of the most multi-layered, fascinating, emotional rivalries in all of football — nay, in all sports.

And the best thing about it all? It isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

Posted by Josh Galligan at 12:14 PM | Comments (0)

December 17, 2010

NFL Powerless Rankings: Dec. 2010

Unless you're a Carolina Panthers fan and have been hiding under a paper bag these last few months (hey, it's okay — we understand), you've likely stumbled across a version or 12 of the cultural phenomenon known as "power rankings."

If you are indeed a Panthers fan or simply don't have access to newspapers, the Internet, or television whatsoever, power rankings exist for practically every sport and in practically every sports media publication or website. Since us humans are utterly obsessed with ranking and putting things into ordered lists or rankings of all kinds, this stuff is consistently lapped up the world over. We can't get enough.

As we head into the last days of 2010, I feel that it's prudent to revisit my attempt to popularize what I call the “powerless rankings." Like their name implies, they're akin to your atypical power rankings, except not so powerful. Basically, they offer something different, fresh, and hopefully give fans of the bottom-of-the-barrel teams a place to actually read about them.

Since we obviously can't talk about the teams' prospects at making the playoffs or similar topics, we can and will focus on the future of the franchises and where the bright spots may lie for them. It's all very classy, optimistic, and generally just on the up-and-up, so if you're all dark, brooding, and gloomy, go bring your rain cloud someone else. Because this is kind of a big deal.

Anyway, without further ado, let's get right into it. Presenting the powerless rankings, mid-December 2010 edition.

28. Cincinnati Bengals (2-11)

Expectations were understandably high for the reigning AFC North champions heading into this past September. Carson Palmer finally appeared to be back to his former self since his devastating ACL injury in the 2005 playoffs, the offense had a fully capable, big-game running back in Cedric Benson, and the team added the dramatic, high-maintenance but undeniably talented Terrell Owens to team up with best bud Chad Johnson (I refuse to call him Chad Ochocinco, sorry).

The defense headed into 2010 having finished the season as a top-five defensive unit. After drafting several promising defensive players in the NFL draft, it seemed as if every area of the Bengals was primed for success heading into the season.

Well, we all know what happened now, don't we? To be fair though, the Bengals' record doesn't really do their season justice as six of their 11 losses were decided by a touchdown or less. Not to mention they've had to endure one of the toughest schedules in the league, playing the likes of the Patriots, Buccaneers, Falcons, Colts, Jets, and Saints. And that's not even counting the fact that they had to play their juggernaut fellow divisional opponents, the Ravens, Steelers, and Browns — twice.

The team's biggest problem appears to be its gross inability to finish games or protect leads. Their offense is just as potent as last year — if not more so now with Terrell Owens and new franchise tight end Jermaine Gresham — but their defense has been the team's Achilles Heel by and large. It was a tough decision to put the team here considering everything discussed, but the fact of the matter is that they continuously lose games they could or should have won and it's largely been the defense's fault. In football, it's either a win or a loss. There is no in-between.

29. Detroit Lions (3-10)

This year was supposed to be different. This year, all the pieces were in place and everything was supposed to change. And it wasn't just people in the fine city of Detroit that were believing in the Lions; they happened to be quite a trendy sleeper pick with many national syndicated sports outlets.

Could this year be the year?

As we all found out, no, this year was not the year. Everything started out decently enough, but then Matthew Stafford got injured. Again. Thankfully, it wasn't season-ending and he rehabbed his way back several weeks later. The fans never wavered and they clung to their playoff hopes as tightly as they could. That is, until Stafford got injured ... again.

The good news is that Stafford looked the part of a No. 1 overall franchise quarterback during the time where he was playing injury-free. The bad news is that he was knocked out twice this season due to the very same throwing shoulder injury he was supposed to have rehabbed multiple times. This certainly isn't the kind of thing that bodes well for any player, but it's especially concerning when it's happening to your franchise quarterback.

Luckily for the Lions, they've built strength and depth while patching up the vast majority of glaring weaknesses they've incurred the past few years. Their defense is slowly blossoming into a respectable unit and all signs are pointing towards their high first round draft pick on defense being a success for the first time since, well, when was the last time they struck gold with a first- or second-round draft pick on a defensive player?

Overall, it seems like they've been drafting much, much better since that Matt Millen guy left town, doesn't it? Not to mention the Calvin Johnson/Jahvid Best duo on offense is just one more weapon and a prolonged Stafford return under center away from becoming one of the most feared offensive units in football.

As for this year, there's no shot of them making the playoffs whatsoever, but Lions fans can at least take some comfort in knowing that their team is far from being the worst team in the NFL. And that's a great reason to be very merry this holiday season!

30. Denver Broncos (3-10)

Despite starting off the season with some pretty powerful offensive firepower, the Broncos have dropped four in a row and are without the head coach they started the season with in Josh McDaniels. Whenever your head coach gets fired midseason, you know you have some major issues and most likely need to start worrying about the future of the franchise in lieu of any short-term goals. As such, the Broncos appear to be on the right road in regards to their offense. The Kyle Orton signing is looking more and more genius with each passing month and, when coupled with Knowshon Moreno and Comeback Player of the Year candidate Brandon Lloyd, you have a formula for success. Or rather, you have one half of the formula for success.

Unfortunately for the Broncos, they're completely missing the other half of the formula, a la defense. With the firepower they have on offense, it wouldn't even take a very good defense as even an average-to-decent unit would suffice. But what they have right now is as pathetically bad at preventing teams scoring on them, as the Broncos' offense is stellar at scoring on other defenses. How's that for a polar opposite analogy?

31. Arizona Cardinals (4-9)

The Cardinals haven't fared very well ever since Kurt Warner decided to retire, especially since they didn't have a capable replacement for him. Matt Leinart certainly didn't pan out very well and the Derek Anderson signing, well, that one was just puzzling and also hasn't panned out very well for the team. The one true superstar weapon they have in Larry Fitzgerald is relatively useless without a serviceable quarterback under center. You know, since he requires footballs to be thrown at him accurately and on time and all. We've seen time and time again how teams can still manage when equipped with a solid running game, a good offensive line, and a quarterback who can manage the game while limiting turnovers.

The Cardinals have all of these things, save for a quarterback who can manage a game and limit turnovers. Derek Anderson has good days in him here and there, but his inconsistency coupled with his inaccuracy just doesn't build a very strong case for anyone to want to make him the team's starting quarterback over the next few years. Max Hall, the quarterback whom the Cardinals thought, hoped, and aspired to be their needle-in-the-haystack franchise quarterback of the future them didn't end up working out very well, either. Sure, he's young and hasn't played very much in the NFL, but he hasn't really showed anything to warrant giving him more time to surpass a mammoth learning curve. A 50% completion rate, 4.7 YPA (yards per attempt), and 6:1 interception-to-TD ratio in six games will do that for you.

The last quarterback standing appears to be John Skelton and he is currently the Cardinals' starter under center. While the jury is still out on him, the team seems to be merely grasping at straws at this point. It's high time to draft a franchise starter and/or go out and get one in free agency. Or try and woo Kurt Warner back with promises of free dancing lessons.

32. Carolina Panthers (1-12)

With DeAngelo Williams injured and Jimmy Clausen proving it's highly unlikely that he has what it takes to succeed long-term as an NFL starting running back (which shouldn't really be a shocker; does everyone forget how few games this kid won at Notre Dame?), well...

My mother always said if I didn't have anything nice to say about something or someone, then don't say it at all. So, since I have plenty of bad things to say about the Panthers, their coaching staff, and their front office, in the spirit of Christmas and the holiday season, I'm not going to say anything at all. Other than that I'm a huge DeAngelo Williams fan and hopes he catches the first bus out of Carolina as soon as his free agency eligibility kicks in.

Dishonorable mentions — Tennessee Titans, Washington Redskins

Posted by Josh Galligan at 6:22 PM | Comments (0)

December 16, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 15

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

San Francisco @ San Diego (-9)

The Chargers avenged a Week 1 loss to the Chiefs with a convincing 31-0 win over a Kansas City team missing quarterback Matt Cassel. San Diego improved to 7-6, one game behind the Chiefs, and will likely have to win out and hope for a Kansas City loss in the final three games.

"From here on out," said Norv Turner, "we'll have to treat every game like a playoff game. Hopefully, we won't treat them like a playoff game against the Jets. Let's face it, though. Does any team want to face a 10-6 Chargers team in the playoffs? Of course, that's if you assume we make the playoffs. But we're not taking anything for granted. If you do assume we'll make the playoffs, then that makes an ass out of you and Jim Mora, Sr."

Like the Chargers, the 49ers blew out a division opponent, and are only one game out of the lead in the NFC West. Alex Smith returned to the lineup and threw 3 touchdowns in a 40-21 win over the Seahawks.

"This is the NFC West," said Mike Singletary. "We don't treat games like playoff games, because if you're from the West and you lose, you're by no means eliminated. We feel very blessed to have a losing record and still fighting for a playoff spot, as do the other three members of the NFC West. You know who else feels blessed because of that? The NFC's No. 5 playoff seed."

Philip Rivers throws for 282 yards and 3 touchdowns, two to Antonio Gates, and the Chargers roll, 31-17.

Buffalo @ Miami (-6)

Miami beat the Jets 10-6 in New Meadowlands Stadium last week, running the Dolphins road record to 6-1, tied with the Steelers as best in the league. The 'Fins held the Jets to only six first downs, buoyed by a big game from Cameron Wake, who recorded 2 sacks and a forced fumble.

"This team travels well," Tony Sparano said. "And when we don't travel, well, it's travails. That's why we'll take a charter flight and a two-hour bus ride from our hotel in Miami to Sun Life Stadium, the long way. Until last Sunday in the Meadowlands, we had no problems whatsoever with 'taking a trip.' That is until the Jets strength and conditioning coach tripped up one of our players. I give Sal Alosi an 'A' for effort, and a 'C' for 'nonchalance.' But we were not without fault. Before the play, cornerback Nolan Carroll failed to report as 'tackle eligible.' That's something he'll have to live with for the rest of his life."

The Bills have yet to win an AFC East game, but will close the season with three division games, hosting the Patriots next week and finishing with the Jets on January 2nd.

"I'm usually not one to make bold predictions," Chan Gailey said, "but I guarantee our strength and conditioning coach's name won't be appearing in Sunday's box score. But I hope a stiff fine and suspension has taught Alosi a lesson. I know Alosi's situation has taught Shawne Merriman a valuable lesson — that a Jets coach has more tackles than he does."

Miami wins, 24-17.

Cleveland @ Cincinnati (-1)

The Bengals losing streaked reached 10 games after last Sunday's 23-7 loss in Pittsburgh. Carson Palmer threw 3 interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns, as the Bengals tied the franchise record for consecutive losses in a season. They'll try to win for the first time since Week 3 at Carolina.

"I have no intentions of benching Palmer," Marvin Lewis said. "But Carson has to be wary of the Browns tricky pass defense, featuring rookie Joe Haden. They could easily bait Carson into throwing to a player from Ohio. In most cases as Cincinnati quarterback, it would be the right thing to do. But obviously, not against the Browns. Carson has completed passes to players from at least 14 states this year, and one Polynesian island."

The Browns fell to the Bills 13-6 in Buffalo last week, officially eliminating Cleveland from playoff contention. Jake Delhomme managed only 86 yards passing, completing 12-of-20 passes and stimulating the demand among Browns fans for a quarterback change.

"I realize that continuing to start Delhomme could eventually cost me my job," Eric Mangini said. "Much like most of Jake's passes, heads could roll, as well. But, as you know, Colt McCoy is still out with a high ankle sprain, so circumstances may dictate Jake remaining the starter. It's a Christmas song Cleveland fans dread hearing, but I may be singing 'It'll Be Delhomme For the Holidays' for the time being."

It appears as though Terrell Owens is showing the true unselfishness that means he's in the holiday spirit — he's handing out blame to everyone but himself. Well, the Bengals front office is making a list, and checking it twice, of the names of players who won't be in a Cincy uniform next year. Good news, T.O.! As your arrogant nature would suggest, you're at the top of the list.

The Browns send the Bengals to their 11th consecutive defeat, and Owens has a sideline meltdown. Mangini sits Delhomme and starts Colt McCoy, who tosses 1 touchdown pass.

Cleveland wins, 22-19.

Detroit @ Tampa Bay (-5½)

The Lions stunned the Packers 7-3 in Detroit last week, knocking Aaron Rodgers out of the game early and winning on Drew Stanton's fourth quarter touchdown pass to Will Heller. The loss was a blow to Green Bay's playoff hopes, and the Lions can likewise damage the Bucs post-season aspirations with a win in Tampa.

"Successive wins over Green Bay and Tampa Bay," said Jim Schwartz, "would truly be special for this team, and be considered a 'Bay City roll.' Last week brought two stunning developments in Detroit: Brett Favre on the sidelines, and a Detroit defense on the field. Our defense really stepped up. It's good to see that Ndamukong Suh won't let a fraudulent roughing penalty stifle his aggressiveness. I'm still unclear as to why he was penalized for more or less shoving Jay Cutler to the ground. To the NFL officiating supervisors, I have to ask — what exactly is a 'non-football act' against a quarterback, and is one accused of such required to register as a sex offender?"

After a 17-16 win in Washington, the Bucs are 8-5 and benefitted from the Lions win over the Packers last week. Tampa will likely battle the Packers, Giants, and Eagles for the final wild card spot.

"Wow!" said Raheem Morris. "The Packers, Giants, and Eagles? We're in good company. They're in great company. And judging by our remaining schedule, we've got a great shot at capturing that final wild card spot. We've got the Lions and Seahawks at home, followed by a final week game at New Orleans, who will likely be resting starters. I like our chances in all three, and I like them even more if Graham Gano makes an appearance in each."

Tampa wins, 30-27.

Houston @ Tennessee (-1)

The Titans have lost six in a row after last Thursday's 30-28 loss to the Colts, and resemble in no way the team that began the year 5-2. They'll look to avenge a Week 12 20-0 loss to the Texans in Houston.

"It's not so much 'revenge,'" said Jeff Fisher, "as it is 'rematch.' I'm sure everyone is anxious to see 'round two' of the Cortland Finnegan/Andre Johnson battle. Me? I think Cortland's skills could be better utilized in getting a rise out of Randy Moss as opposed to Johnson. Randy's like a cheap wedding — there's no reception. Randy could leave the field early now and no one would notice. Heck, no one notices when he arrives at the stadium, especially our quarterback. In Randy's defense, he hasn't become a distraction. But he hasn't become an attraction, either.

"I've always been considered a 'players' coach.' And that notion is no more evident than now, because like the players, I'm playing for my job. When the going gets tough, Finnegan has an 'off with his helmet mentality,' whereas owner Bud Adams, under similar circumstances, has an 'off with his head' mentality."

The Texans ruined a dramatic fourth quarter comeback on Monday night, losing to the Ravens 34-28 in overtime when Matt Schaub was intercepted by Josh Wilson, who returned the pick 12 yards for the game-winning score. The loss dropped Houston to 5-8, and all but officially eliminated them from playoff contention.

"Can't a quarterback get a drop when he needs one?" said a disappointed Schaub. "Andre Johnson may be playing on one leg, but at least he's got two good hands. It seems some of his butter-fingered mates in the receiving corps are trying to emulate Andre with their own version of the 'hands of stone.' When it comes to passes, I'd rather see Andre on the receiving end. When it comes to punches, I'd rather see Finnegan on the receiving end."

The Texans strike early. Johnson goes "right cross" the middle, turning a short reception into a 45-yard touchdown. He then burns Finnegan with a double move, also known as a combination, for a big gain. Arian Foster provides the knockout blow with a short touchdown run to finish off the Titans.

Houston wins, 27-16.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants (-3)

The NFC East lead will be on the line when Michael Vick leads the Eagles against Eli Manning and the Giants. The Eagles handled the Cowboys last week, propelled by a big game from DeSean Jackson, who caught 4 passes for 210 yards and a touchdown.

"I think DeSean's 91-yard catch and run touchdown appropriately summed up the Cowboys season," said Andy Reid. "Dallas' defense has been so bad, opponents are even falling in backwards to the end zone. But DeSean is either 'great' or 'grating.' He's either busting an over-50-yard touchdown, or complaining about not getting enough touches. It's a dynamic that works out for both of us. He complains, and I give in. It's what we call a 'whine and appease' relationship."

The Giants beat the Brett Favre-less Vikings 21-3 last week to keep pace in the East. As of late, the G-Men have been riding the power and speed of the running back duo Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Against Minnesota, Jacobs and Bradshaw piled up a combined 219 yards rushing.

"They are the 'Earth' and 'Fire' of the 'Earth, Wind, and Fire' backfield," Tom Coughlin said. "But who needs Derrick Ward as 'Wind' when we've got Eli Manning, who blows? Eli leads the NFL with 18 interceptions. He can read a defense ... on a seventh-grade level. But I think our resurgent running game will allow me to ask less of Eli. That's good, because there's been some confusion in my orders now that when I ask him to play like Peyton, I have to specify which one."

The G-Men have to be tired from a Monday night game, preceded by lots of travel and long delays at airports. There's 'Jet lag,' and there's 'jet lag,' and both seem to rear their ugly heads at New Meadowlands Stadium. The Giants suffer from the latter.

Philadelphia jumps to a quick start, leading 14-0 before the Giants even get off the plane. Vick accounts for 3 touchdowns, and a Jacobs' fumble late seals New York's fate.

Eagles win, 27-24.

New Orleans @ Baltimore (-2½)

While the Falcons have reeled off seven straight wins, the Saints have won six in a row to keep pace in the NFC South. Should New Orleans overcome the Ravens in Baltimore, Week 16's game versus Atlanta in New Orleans could decide the division champion.

"We've got the second-best record in the NFC," said Drew Brees, "yet we may be the most overlooked team in the NFL. And that's just fine with us. We're happy to tell the rest of the league, 'Look away, Dixie land, look away.'

And we'll have a lot to prove come playoff time. It would be foolish to underestimate us. You've seen me snoring in a number of Nyquil advertisements, but once the playoffs commence, it would behoove you to listen when I say 'don't sleep on us.'"

The Ravens blew a 28-13 lead in Houston on Monday night before winning 34-28 in overtime. Baltimore has lost fourth-quarter leads in each of its four losses, and nearly did so again before Josh Wilson intercepted Matt Schaub and scooted 12 yards for the game-winning score.

"We'd be undefeated," Ray Lewis said, "if games were three quarters long. So check out my new Old Spice scent, Old Spice 'Hour,' which lasts longer than the Ravens. With so many fourth-quarter collapses, you have to question our conditioning. And, in light of Sal Alosi's play on a Miami Dolphin player, I think it's safe to say our strength and conditioning coach, Bob Rogucki, isn't 'doing enough.'"

Can the Ravens defense outsmart Drew Brees? No. Can Sean Payton out-coach John Harbaugh? In his sleep. The good news for the Ravens? They won't have a fourth-quarter lead to blow.

Brees throws for 326 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Saints win, 31-28.

Arizona @ Carolina (-2½)

The Panthers fell to the Falcons 31-10 last week, dropping their record to 1-12, the worst record in the NFL. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen felt compelled to apologize for a subpar performance to linebacker Jon Beason, while wide receiver Steve Smith felt the offense was due the apology.

"Obviously," said John Fox, "Jimmy can say 'I'm sorry' with his words as well as his actions. But enough with the apologies. First, our owner Jerry Richardson apologized to our fans, something I was totally unaware of. Then Clausen apologizes to Beason. It sets a bad precedent. No, there's nothing wrong with apologies, except when you have more apologies than wins. But all is not lost for this team. We may be 1-12, but there's comfort in knowing we're the worst team in the NFL's best division."

After smashing the Broncos 43-13, the Cardinals are 4-9 and remarkably still alive for the NFC West crown. They'll have to win their remaining three games and get lots of help from the teams facing their West counterparts.

"Only in the NFC West," Ken Whisenhunt said, "could a team be alive in the division hunt, yet out of the wild card race. It truly is the 'Wild, Wild, West,' and once the wild card round of the playoffs end, it will be 'Wild and Out.'"

Panthers win, 23-16.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-5)

Under normal circumstances, Week 15 for the Colts would entail debate on whether or not to rest starters in advance of a sure first-round playoff bye. Not so this year. Indianapolis is 7-6 and a game behind the visiting Jaguars in the AFC South. Should Indy win its remaining three games, they would win the division title.

"Oh, we're still resting starters," said Peyton Manning. "They just happen to be resting on injured reserve. I've been praying for a running game to arrive in Indy for some time now; I guess a home game against the Jags is how God answers prayers, when they're transmitted via Twitter. But I live for games like this. This is why you play football, to win the games that matter most, and to atone for throwing 11 interceptions in three games. I'm sure the Jaguars' strategy will be to 'keep the ball out of my hands.' So be it. But for three recent opponents, the best strategy was to 'put the ball in my hands.'"

With a win in Indianapolis, the Jags could all but clinch the AFC South, and would complete the season sweep of the Colts. Jacksonville has rushed for 200 yards as a team in their last three games, and Maurice Jones-Drew has posted six-straight 100-yard rushing games. So the Colts can expect a healthy dose of the Jacksonville rushing game.

"More than a healthy dose," said Jack Del Rio. "They'll get an overdose. Our offense will be like pantyhose on Joe Namath — we'll run. I honestly don't think the Colts have an answer for our running game. I'm sure they have a question, though, like 'How do we stop this?' Well, you can't. Maurice Jones-Drew is the NFL's best player with a hyphenated last name. And after 23-29 rushes from Jones-Drew, I think the Colts will see their hopes 'dashed.'"

Jones-Drew powers for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Jags survive a late Colts rally.

Jacksonville wins, 34-31.

Kansas City @ St. Louis (-1)

Sunday's contest in the Edward Jones Dome pits the division leaders from the AFC West and NFC West, with both the Chiefs and Rams coming off blowout losses to the Chargers and Saints, respectively.

"It's a must-win situation for both teams," Todd Haley said. "I can't speak for the Rams, but we will let it all hang out. It's the 'Show Me State Showdown,' and although it seems odd, Brett Favre is not a part of it.

As you know, Matt Cassel missed last week's game after having his appendix removed. In a related surgical matter, the Chargers tore us a new asshole last week. But let's be careful not to confuse Matt's procedure with a certain Favre cell phone maneuver. In Matt's case, 'appendix' is what was removed; in Favre's case, 'append dicks' is what he does before sending a text message."

The Rams lost 31-13 in New Orleans, but still remained tied for the NFC West lead thanks to Seattle's loss in San Francisco. Sam Bradford was shaky in the loss, but was impressive in running down Saints safety Roman Harper after Harper snatched a Rams fumble.

"Let that be a lesson to others," Bradford said. "Don't underestimate the speed of the kid. I can outrun safeties as well as I can the 'Heisman Curse.' The Saints found out that I've got Harper's number, or 'Roman's Numeral,' if you will."

St. Louis wins, 26-17.

Washington @ Dallas (-6)

While the Eagles and Giants settle NFC East bragging rights, the Redskins and Cowboys renew the division's most famous rivalry in Cowboys Stadium. Washington lost 17-16 to the Bucs last week as a botched extra point attempt, among other kicking game breakdowns, cost the Redskins.

"I thought long and hard about releasing Graham Gano," Mike Shanahan said. "I've decided to keep him, not only because he's a hard worker, but also because he's willing to play a 3-4 defense. Now, had a released him, I would have called him into my office, told him to stand under the 'miss-tle toe,' and told him to kiss his ass goodbye. 'Sha-na-na-na-na-na-na-na-han.'

"If I could, I would blame this on Albert Haynesworth. But I can't. Why? Because Albert's good for nothing. As I've said before, Albert didn't 'work out,' nor did he 'workout.'"

Dallas is 4-9 and the prospects of a .500 season ended with Sunday night's 30-27 loss to the Eagles. The Cowboys bravely fought until the end, and were gracious in defeat, with Tashard Choice even asking Michael Vick to sign his glove after the game.

"I really don't see what the big deal is," said Choice, "but this seems to be the most-talked about autograph since Vick signed his plea deal. Heck, it's not t he first time Vick's 'left his signature' in an opponent's stadium."

Dallas wins, 23-20.

Atlanta @ Seattle (+6)

Despite a 40-21 hammering courtesy of the 49ers, the Seahawks remained tied for first in the NFC West, locked up with the Rams for the division lead, thanks to a 31-13 St. Louis loss in New Orleans. They'll face a tough test in the Falcons, who are in the driver's seat for the NFC South crown and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

"This game will be marked by contrasting styles," Mike Smith said. "Particularly those of the quarterbacks. Although they are both named 'Matt,' Matt Ryan and Matt Hasselbeck couldn't differ more. Ryan has made a name for himself with his composure under pressure, earning the nickname 'Matty Ice.' Hasselbeck is known as much for his history of injuries as he is for his passing, earning the nickname 'Matty Iced.'"

"Don't forget," Pete Carroll said, "Hasselbeck's also known for his famous overtime coin flip call in Green Bay in 2004. The next thing you know, Al Harris is returning Hasselbeck's pass for a 52-yard, game-winning score. That earned Hasselbeck the nickname 'Matty Heist.'"

Atlanta wins, 31-14.

Denver @ Oakland (-6½)

The Eric Studesville era in Denver began with a thud, as the Broncos were pummeled 43-13 by the Cardinals last week in a blowout that surely validated the "interim" in Studesville's title as interim coach. Now the Broncos head to Oakland, hoping to avenge a Week 7 59-14 loss to the Raiders in Denver.

"Last week saw a change of coaches," said Broncos president Pat Bowlen. "This week could see a change of mind. But we'll stick with Studesville for the time being, but I hear Urban Meyer is available. That would be a coaching hire on par with the drafting of Tim Tebow in the first round. It would be interesting to see a Meyer/Tebow reunion. It would also be interesting to see how well two quarterback sneaks and a jump pass would work on the Broncos first drive in the Meyer/Tebow regime."

Oakland blew a chance to pull within a game of the Chiefs in the AFC West, falling 38-31 in Jacksonville, surrendering 234 yards on the ground. Still, the Raiders are only two games back of the Chiefs, and one behind the Chargers, and with two wins over San Diego this year, anything is possible.

"I like to believe," said Tom Cable, "that our 59-14 blowout of the Broncos hastened Josh McDaniels' demise, and answered the question posed in the 1969 movie They Shoot Horses, Don't They? But we know the Broncos will be fired up, as will former Bronco and Raider Bill Romanowski. Heck, I hear Romo's salivating, drooling even, at the thought of the upcoming game. He's anticipating an epic battle. In fact, he's got great expectorations. All I know is that when the Broncos and Raiders battle, you better buckle your chin strap. And if Romanowski's nearby, you better tighten your face shield."

Oakland wins, 30-22.

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh (-6)

While the AFC East crown was in their reach just a few weeks ago, the Jets are by no means a lock for a playoff spot now, particularly with an imposing date at Heinz Field looming. The Jets followed their 45-3 beating in New England with a lackluster 10-6 loss to Miami in the New Meadowlands.

"As you know," said Rex Ryan, "we buried a game ball from the Patriots game. And, like our offense, it hasn't moved. And you've probably seen the video of our strength and conditioning coach Sal Alosi tripping Miami's Nolan Carroll on a punt in last week's game. It was uncalled for, and the only thing I can say to Sal is 'Where were you against the Patriots?' But seriously, his actions were regrettable. Heck, even Joe Namath would say it was an egregious case of bad judgment on the sideline."

The Steelers used three Sean Suisham field goals and two defensive touchdowns to defeat the Bengals 23-7 last week. Troy Polamalu and Lamar Woodley returned interceptions for touchdown to spark the win.

"Carson Palmer and I roomed together at USC," said Polamalu. "We did share a room, but obviously not the Head and Shoulders. And, just like last Sunday, we shared our ups and downs. This Sunday, I'll face another teammate in Santonio Holmes, with whom I've shared a Bowl. Holmes made a name for himself on the street corners of Belle Glade, Florida. And, he's now made a name for himself as a Jet. That name is the 'New York Sack Exchange.'"

Holmes has 7 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown against his old team, and the Jets find their way out of their offensive doldrums through the air.

New York wins, 20-17.

Green Bay @ New England (-9½)

The Patriots clinched a playoff spot, and widened the scope of their dominance, with a 36-7 win in snowy Chicago that fell just short of the 46-10 score needed to fully exorcise the memory of 1985's Super Bowl XX loss to the Bears. Still, New England proved that weather won't affect them, particularly the type of weather sure to greet a visiting playoff team.

"I didn't go there to feathers ruffle," said Tom Brady. "I just went to do the 'Super Bowl Muffle.' If the Bears are the NFC's best, then I might just have to start heeding the words of Raheem Morris.

Now the Packers will likely face the same fate as the Bears. Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers is a lot like Chicago with Jay Cutler."

Green Bay will face the daunting task of winning in New England without Aaron Rodgers, who suffered a concussion in last week's 7-3 loss to the Lions. In Rodgers' place, the Packers will start Matt Flynn, in his third year out of Louisiana State.

"We know we have a tough task ahead," Charles Woodson, "to face the Patriots, the team that just blew out the team we're chasing for the NFC North lead. It's all about confronting your fears. I have an inexplicable fear of playing in the snow in New England against a team quarterbacked by Tom Brady. To get past it, I know I have to overcome my fears, but for some reason, I have trouble tucking those feelings way. I want to be like Brady's arm, and move forward, but I can't. Thoughts of that moment are a red flag to my psyche."

Patriots win, 26-10.

Chicago @ Minnesota (+3)

What did the Bears and Vikings have in common last week? Neither team "played" on Sunday. Heavy snowfall in Minneapolis forced the Giants/Vikings game to be moved to Detroit on Monday, while the Bears didn't show up in a 36-7 loss to the Patriots. Now the Bears look to refocus their playoff drive in Minnesota against the 5-8 Vikings, who lost 21-3 to the Giants last week.

"Sadly," said Brett Favre, "my streak of consecutive games started ended last week, at 297. I guess it's time for the bells to toll in honor of my career; and it's no coincidence the sound we're hearing is 'ding-dong.' I knew it was time to sit one out when I couldn't even lift my right, or text-messaging, arm. Had I tried to play, I'm sure I would have been flagged for unnecessary toughness."

The Bears had their five-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Patriots, who whipped them 36-7. They must quickly regroup to remain a step ahead of the Packers in the NFC North race.

"We've got to get back to what we do best," said Jay Cutler, "and that's not playing the Patriots. The Vikes are just the team to put us back on track. The Vikings are telling us that this game will take place 'somewhere in Minnesota.' That type of vague directions coming from the Vikings leads me to one conclusion: that they've invited us to a sex boat cruise, starring featured performers 'Leslie and Lovie.'"

Chicago wins, 22-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 12:56 PM | Comments (0)

Choice is the Choice

My girlfriend is a Cowboys fan and I'm a Buccaneers fan, and what that has meant is she has, through osmosis, become a fan of the Bucs and I have become a fan of the 'Boys. We get to watch of plenty of both because the Cowboys will always be prime time darlings and the Buccaneers need to make the playoffs in order to get any night games the following year (seriously; last year, they played no prime time games, despite finishing 9-7 the year prior).

Needless to say, she is not a happy camper this year. It's been a rough year for the Cowboys and for her favorite player, Tashard Choice. In seasons past, the Cowboys' running game has been a three-headed hydra of Choice, Marion Barber, and Felix Jones. This year, however, Choice has been largely phased out save for the last couple weeks, getting no touches at all in several games.

Why? Well, the fans and the press wanted to know, so finally Jason Garrett cited his lack of a strong performance on special teams which, as Troy Aikman points out, "does not really compute." He's not a return man, and at 5'10" and 212 pounds, I'm not surprised he's not a world-class blocker and wedge-buster.

But Barber's injury two weeks ago foisted Choice back in the fold, and he delivered a 19-carry, 100-yard performance. That made me wonder about the last time a Cowboy rushed for 100 yards.

That's where I found something interesting that doesn't speak well to how the Cowboys coaching staff, be it under Garrett or Wade Phillips, has handled their running backs.

The last time a Cowboys rusher went for 100 yards before Choice did was in Week 5, when Jones ran for 109. Other than that, neither Barber or Jones had mustered even 60 yards in a game. No, the second-best running game for a Cowboy this year prior to Week 13 was Miles Austin, who went for 60 yards against the Saints. On one play.

That's right! Miles Austin, on a single play, has had a better running game than Marion Barber has had the entire season. In fact, Jones and Barber have yet to combine for 100 yards in a game this season.

If anyone should be cut out of the mix, it's Barber. They don't keep stats on this,, but I'm pretty sure he leads the league in getting stuffed inside the 5-yard line. He's averaging a dismal 3.1 yards per carry, almost a full yard behind Jones' and Choice's averages. A lot of that has been the fault of the offensive line, who leads the league in another unkept category (cringingly blatant, high school-level holds), but Choice and Jones have been able to make some hay out of it.

Barber's form would be better suited for an NFC West team, speaking of disappointing. More and more ink is being spilled over the possibility that an 8-8 team, or even 7-9, might not only make the playoffs, but host a home game, thanks to winning the NFC West.

But it was inevitable. First of all, it's happened already. Secondly, in the eight NFL seasons where there have been eight four-team divisions, 9-7 was adequate to win a division in five of them. So, an 8-8 or 7-9 division winner was always just around the corner.

Secondly, I see it as the ultimate cinderella story to get behind. It doesn't bother me. Or rather, it didn't. But there's one ramification I didn't really consider when pondering a 7-9 playoff team, and that's how much, to use this season as an example, the NFC West pollutes the NFC pool.

I can live with a 9-7 team in a weak division going to the playoffs while a 10-6 team from a strong one stays home. But this season, it is quite possible, with three games remaining, that the Eagles, Giants, Bears, Packers, Falcons, Saints, and Buccaneers all finish 11-5 or better. If they do,, then two of those teams will not be making the playoffs, while a team with seven wins goes. That's gross.

But what's the solution? If you say we need to simply give playoff slots to the six best (or whatever) teams in each conference, then there ceases to be any purpose for divisions. That's a lot of tradition to throw out the window.

To some extent, I think we have to bite the bullet on this. The NFL scheduling formula is smart, placing increased emphasis on a team's own division, then conference, then the league as a whole. Not every league does that. The MLS, for instance. Every team plays every other team twice, whether they are in the same conference or not.

And that would be fine, and the same structure as most European leagues, except there are conferences with guaranteed playoff spots for the top two teams in each. If you play a "balanced" schedule (playing all teams the same number of times), then it's sheer lunacy to split them up into conferences and give conference-based incentives. They're just arbitrary columns of A and B, and therefore possible (however unlikely) to have the best 10 records in conference A and the worst 10 records in conference B.

Back to the NFL. I do have one improvement to suggest. Make a rule that states the playoff formula stays as it is ... as long as the division winner is 9-7 (or 8-8) or better. If all the teams in a division fail to get to that mark, none of them make the playoffs, and instead a third wild card team is awarded to that conference. Simple enough, no?

Posted by Kevin Beane at 12:05 PM | Comments (1)

December 15, 2010

Was Being Outclassed Good For the Pats?

The New England Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL, having beaten a murderer's row of AFC "heavyweights," including the Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, and most recently, the New York Jets (who, coincidentally, beat the Patriots in Week 2, 28-14). And their dominance hasn't existed against only AFC teams, either, as they've also beaten two NFC North division title contenders in the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears.

The vast majority of press coverage on the team has focused on the offense — and rightfully so, thanks to the Randy Moss saga, Logan Mankins' holdout, and Tom Brady's resurgence to his rightful place as one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Despite sharing the league-best record (11-2) along with the Atlanta Falcons, the defense has definitely had a rocky ride from the beginning of the season all the way until now.

With the retirements of safety Rodney Harrison and linebacker Tedy Bruschi and departure of linebacker Mike Vrabel (to the Kansas City Chiefs), Bill Belichick has had to teach the rookies and other young, inexperienced players on his defense himself. Indeed, this is one of the biggest theories as to why he named himself defensive coordinator this year (in addition to being head coach, as well, obviously).

Of the 11 starters on defense, eight have just three years of experience or less (nine if you count nickel-back formations). Of these eight, six have just two years of experience or less under their belts and two are first-year rookies. Note that this is with Gary Guyton starting at inside linebacker due to the Brandon Spikes suspension. When Spikes is in his rightful position starting at inside linebacker, it factors out to an incredible nine-of-11 starters with three years of experience or less.

Take a moment and let that sink in for a few.

It's pretty much common sense that any kind of football unit — much less a defensive one — with that much inexperience on the field is going to have its ups and downs. And it's quite obvious to anyone who follows the game that this defense has had its share of struggles this year.

Interestingly enough, the troubles started with the Jets in Week 2. While they continued, ultimately culminating in the Week 9 drubbing at the hands of the Browns, it may have been these two losses that ultimately helped the unit pull everything together and turn things around just in time for the postseason.

In the last two games against the Jets and Bears, the Patriots defense played with a precision and near-flawless execution normally reserved for hardened, veteran-heavy units. It's also quite interesting to note that the defense's first real whipping came at the hands of the division rival Jets. Mark Sanchez and company seemed to have their way in whatever it was they chose to do — over, around, through, whichever — it didn't matter. When you throw in the fact that this was the same division rival who had been talking smack all offseason long, you just know that the sting from that one must have hurt something fierce.

Based on what happened in Week 2, the defense's stellar performance in the Week 13 annihilation of the Jets proved two things: one, that they've patched up their weaknesses and damn near made these weaknesses their new strengths; and two, that they can effectively and productively deal with adversity or failure and not only bounce back from it, but bounce back as a stronger, wiser group of players.

Whether or not there are any trials or lessons left for this young defense heading into the future remains to be seen. However, based on what we've seen thus far, there may not be many lessons left to learn. Perhaps the worst days are behind them and they've used the experiences from these dark days to further fuel their motivation to ensure their success.

Posted by Josh Galligan at 4:42 PM | Comments (0)

There's Something About Kansas

Every year, when the college basketball season arrives, I do two things.

First, I look for the early Cinderella; the team that gives top-ranked teams a scare, or sometimes pull off the upset. These are the teams that I remember come March. This year, I believe I've found one in Oakland, who lost a heartbreaker to Michigan State and then promptly stunned Tennessee in a show of resilience.

The second thing I do? I look at how Kansas is doing.

There's always something about the Jayhawks. Every year, when it's time to fill out the brackets, I always pick Kansas to go deep (in fact, the last three years I've picked KU to win the national title). Kansas teams, especially under Bill Self, typically play a deep bench, loaded with good shooters and solid guard play, something that almost always shines in March.

Of course, last year, Northern Iowa proved that they had fantastic guard play of their own. Despite the fact that the Panthers destroyed my bracket, here I am again watching the Jayhawks progress through another season.

This year, Kansas is playing ... well, like Kansas. The Jayhawks are 9-0, with only UCLA providing a serious scare. Four players are averaging double digits in scoring, led by the dynamic duo of Marcus (16.9 ppg) and Markeiff (12.3 ppg) Morris. Tyshawn Taylor has really grown into his role and is averaging over 6 assists a game, spreading the rock beautifully with his teammates. Except for G Tyrel Reed, every Jayhawk is shooting over 50% from inside the arc. KU has a assist/turnover ratio of 1.65:1 so far, and nine players are averaging more than 15 minutes a game.

The scary part? Following a 76-55 win over Colorado State, Self says his team has regressed. He's far from satisfied. And this is all before Josh Selby has suited up and taken the floor in a Kansas uniform. Speaking to reporters, Self said that Selby would bring a boost to his team, but that was the problem. His team shouldn't need such a boost during the season.

High expectations generally produce high results. Kansas didn't play their best against the Rams; shooting just 46 percent from the field and 58 percent from the line. However, they out-rebounded Colorado State 47-27 and let's face it, when you play bad and win by 21, that says a lot about the quality of team that you have. Though not satisfied, many a team would gladly trade the positions they sit in with Self.

As for Selby, he is an electric freshman guard who should provide a few highlights each game for Kansas. However, the key is whether he'll fit as the last cog into a title puzzle. KU needs Selby to take command and run the point as a court general. Though he's a point guard, if he can provide a further perimeter threat and allow both of the Morris boys some extra breathing room, KU could become a very dangerous team.

Hopefully, for KU as well, Selby can be a consistent free throw shooter. Similar to the Memphis team they beat for the national title, Kansas has a potentially serious Achilles heel when it comes to shooting free throws.

Nevertheless, as incomplete as the season and this team is, there's always something about Kansas that keeps you intrigued. Maybe it's the tradition of Allen Fieldhouse. Maybe it's the dominance of Big 12 basketball that's stood the test of time. Perhaps it's the fact that each Jayhawk team looks the part of a Final Four contender. Maybe it's the fact that, besides the ACC and Big East, there's another team that always garners consideration.

It might be none of those things, or all of them. But, when thinking about March, yet again, you have to take another glance at the Jayhawks.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 1:18 PM | Comments (1)

December 14, 2010

NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Here's how the 4-9 Arizona Cardinals win the NFC West and make the playoffs. They win all their remaining games and finish 7-9. The 49ers lose at San Diego. The Rams and Seahawks lose both of their next two, then tie in Week 17.

* I assume you've all seen the video of the Metrodome roof collapsing, but if not, or if you just want another look, click here.

* On top of everything else they're doing right, the Patriots set an NFL record by going five straight games without a turnover.

* Remember when Philip Rivers was going to break Dan Marino's single-season passing record? He'd have to average 406 yards over the last three weeks to make it. Peyton Manning needs 352.

* Finally, a moment of silence for Aaron Rodgers fantasy owners. He's carried you all season, and now his second concussion probably got you eliminated from the playoffs. Please bow your heads for these valiant pretend-teams, gone too early.

***

The Jets have suspended and fined — but not fired — Sal Alosi. If you somehow missed it, during the Dolphins game, Miami gunner Nolan Carroll was running down a punt when Alosi, the Jets' head strength and conditioning coach, stuck out his knee. Carroll went down, and although he was not seriously injured, that is revolting behavior with no place in the game. In this year of publicized fines, it's the dirtiest thing I've seen in the NFL all season, someone not involved in a play attacking someone who's concentrating on the game. It's cowardly, like hitting someone from behind. Alosi released a statement after the game which read, in part, "My conduct was inexcusable and unsportsmanlike and does not reflect what this organization stands for." That much is correct. The organization should have proven it by terminating Alosi's contract.

Alosi didn't get away with a slap on the wrist. He's been suspended without pay for the rest of the season, including playoffs, and fined $25,000. That's chump change for many players, but it's a lot for an assistant coach. Firing him actually might have been kinder.

On to the Week 14 power rankings, brackets show last week's rank.

1. New England Patriots [1] — Partying like it's 2007. In the last two weeks, the Patriots have beaten the 9-4 Jets and Bears by an average score of 41-5. This week's game could have been worse: it was 36-0 with 25 minutes left. Deion Branch had another big game, 8 catches for 151 yards and a touchdown. The answer to this question is probably no, but should Branch's success make us re-evaluate Randy Moss at all? No one doubts his brilliance as a young player in Minnesota, but after three years of injuries and diminished output, Moss resurrected his career playing opposite Wes Welker and catching bombs from Tom Brady. Would Branch have done the same thing, or close to it, if he'd still been in New England? How much is the player, and how much is the system and the supporting cast?

2. Atlanta Falcons [2] — If the Patriots weren't playing at such a ridiculous level, I think people would be really impressed with the Falcons right now. They're doing everything they're supposed to, beating good teams and destroying bad ones. Facing the league's worst offense, John Abraham and Kroy Biermann had 2 sacks each. That triples Biermann's season total, but it gives Abraham his sixth career season of double-digit sacks. That ties him with Dwight Freeney, Julius Peppers, and Jason Taylor for most among active players. Abraham, like his team, tends to slip under the radar a little. Everyone knows they're good, but not quite how good.

3. Philadelphia Eagles [4] — Lost MLB Stew Bradley, probably for the year, with a dislocated elbow, but they got a key divisional win and proved they can win even when Michael Vick looks mortal. Quintin Mikell and Ernie Sims had impressive games for the defense. The Eagles are 5-1 since the bye and lead the NFL in yards per game (402.8). Is DeSean Jackson a 12-year-old? He's clearly got talent, but he acts like a child, consistently. Did you stay up for his post-game interview with Andrea Kremer? Very strange, a little disturbing.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers [5] — Four straight wins and another great game from the defense. The offense, though, is poor. In the last three weeks, Pittsburgh has scored a total of two touchdowns on offense. That's facing one good defense (Baltimore) and two awful ones (Cincinnati ranks 24th and the Bills are dead last). The Steelers have put together a nice offensive game here and there, but the offense has never really gotten in synch, and that has to change if the team is going to make a postseason run. Everyone is talking about Troy Polamalu, but LaMarr Woodley had 2 sacks and an interception return for a touchdown this weekend.

5. Baltimore Ravens [6] — How good is the defense, really? Baltimore ranks 10th in yards allowed, fourth in points allowed. That's very good. But the Ravens are 12th in yards per carry allowed (4.1), tied for 20th in sacks (24), and tied for 28th in takeaways (17). The MNF announcers several times referred to Ray Lewis and Ed Reed as the most significant members of the unit, like we're still in 2006. Haloti Ngata and Terrell Suggs are the best players on the Baltimore defense this season. I like the way the team has used Ray Rice the last few weeks. He's their best offensive player.

6. New Orleans Saints [7] — If I hear one more person insist that the Saints are flying under the radar, I am just going to go berserk. I swear these people think we are children, and there's some weird conspiracy to have every single television station give us the same message. The Saints ... are ... flying ... under the radar. Wash, rinse, repeat. The Saints aren't getting as much hype as the Patriots and Eagles because they are not as good as the Patriots or Eagles. They have played better following a three-week stretch in which they lost to both Arizona and Cleveland, however, and their first-round playoff game could be a rematch of a contest they just won 31-13. New Orleans had 13:01 time of possession in the first quarter, and Malcolm Jenkins intercepted two passes, including one for a 96-yard touchdown return.

7. Green Bay Packers [3] — Sometimes a player's value is best revealed by his absence. We all knew Aaron Rodgers was a good quarterback. But when the Packers lost him with an injury, Green Bay scored a season-low 3 points against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Maybe Rodgers is even more valuable than we thought. Same thing for Matt Cassel in Kansas City. Sure, we knew he was having a nice season. But man, the Chiefs just fell apart without him. My policy in these rankings is to evaluate teams based on their strength right now, and without Rodgers, Green Bay is not a top-10 team. This was his second concussion of the season, and I can't imagine he's going to play in Week 15, but I do suspect he'll be back for Week 16, and to avoid a rollercoaster in the rankings, I've assigned the Packers a modest drop this week. Cullen Jenkins also missed this week's game, and now reportedly could be out for the season.

8. San Diego Chargers [9] — The Chiefs and Chargers have been playing each other since 1960, when they were the Dallas Texans and Los Angeles Chargers. In 102 meetings, this was San Diego's largest-ever margin of victory and its first regular-season shutout of the Chiefs. KC has used backup QBs before; the Chargers came out on fire for a game they absolutely had to win, and destroyed an important rival in all phases of the game. San Diego had five times as many first downs (25-5), a 359-yard advantage, and more than twice as much time of possession. On its good days, this is a powerhouse team.

9. New York Giants [10] — Winners of three in a row, including two straight blowouts, but Eli Manning has entered his annual cold-weather swoon. This is like clockwork. Every year, Eli Manning plays well in September and October, and people announce with tremendous authority that he has turned the corner and is one of the great QBs in the NFL, sometimes even asserting that he is better than Peyton and sliced bread. Then November rolls around, and Eli turns into Mark Sanchez. This isn't just about weather: Tom Brady plays outdoors, in conditions just as bad, and his passer rating in December (92.8) is the same as in September (93.1). Eli's per-game averages, by month:

In a 2010 context, Eli is Kyle Orton the first two months (87.5 rating) and Carson Palmer the last two (78.1).

10. Chicago Bears [8] — Embarrassing loss at home should be a reality check for a team with dreams of playing in the Super Bowl. I just don't know how a team can succeed with such inconsistent play from the offense, ranked 30th in yards per game. In Chicago's nine wins, Jay Cutler has 16 TDs and 5 INTs (106.5 rating); in the losses, 1 TD and 7 picks (52.6). Matt Forte in wins: 74 rush yards per game, 4.6 per carry. Forte in losses: 26 per game, 2.6 per rush. Chicago's passing game is better now than it was in the '06 Super Bowl season, but the run game is weaker and the defense is less dominant. Plus, in '06, the NFC just didn't have very good teams. I don't think the '06 Bears would get past this year's Falcons or Eagles. They might not get past this year's Bears. The collapse of the Metrodome roof may help Chicago win the NFC North, as next week's game is likely to be played either (1) outside Minnesota or (2) outdoors, either of which would minimize — if not totally negate — the Vikings' homefield advantage.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Somebody has to be 11th. Am I happy it's a team with no wide receivers and no defense? I am not. But the Jags are playing well enough to win, and they certainly get full marks for resilience and exciting finishes. This weekend marked the fifth time in the last six games that Jacksonville made up a double-digit point deficit. Week 15 is the most important game of the season; a win at Indianapolis would guarantee the Jags their first division title since the 1999 AFC Central.

12. Dallas Cowboys [14] — Allowed at least 30 points for the third game in a row and the seventh time this season. All year, I've been crying for a balance between the run and pass, but it appears the only passes that have been eliminated are to the wide receivers. Jason Witten and Felix Jones are more involved than ever, while explosive players like Miles Austin, Roy Williams, and Dez Bryant (even before his injury) seem to have become after-thoughts with Jon Kitna under center. Since 2006, the Cowboys are 39-22 (.639) with Tony Romo and 6-9 (.400) without him. Kitna has played well for a backup — I'm sure the Cardinals or Panthers would love to have him — but he's still a backup.

13. Oakland Raiders [13] — They lost, and their playoff hopes are gone. But let's talk a little about the year Darren McFadden is having. In just 11 games, he has 993 rushing yards, with a 5.2 average, plus 437 receiving yards and a total of 10 touchdowns. His highlights from the Jacksonville game reminded me of Bo Jackson. Prior to this season, McFadden had 856 career rushing yards, with a 4.4 average as a rookie and 3.4 in 2009.

14. Indianapolis Colts [16] — Road win over a division opponent, and you never take those for granted, but how encouraging is a 2-point victory over a team that's now lost six in a row? Allowing 31 points against New England is nothing to be ashamed about. Giving up 36 to the Chargers and 38 to the Cowboys was kind of a fluke with those interception returns. But now the Colts have allowed at least 28 points in four straight games, and I shudder to think what Maurice Jones-Drew will do to their run defense in Week 15.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [15] — Remain at 15th, even though they won and the teams I had 11th-14th all lost, for two reasons. One is injury. The already-decimated defense lost two more starters this weekend, most notably rookie DT Gerald McCoy, who tore his biceps. The other reason is that Tampa's victory this weekend was far from impressive, arguably lucky or flukey.

16. Kansas City Chiefs [11] — Obviously not the same team without Matt Cassel (see Green Bay comment for more). Brodie Croyle is now 0-10 as a starter in the NFL.

17. Miami Dolphins [20] — Win over the Jets didn't elevate their 31st-ranked scoring offense. Miami has scored only 20 touchdowns this year. The Panthers have 15, and everyone else has at least 25. That means the 30th-best offense has 25% more TDs than the Dolphins. On Sunday, Chad Henne had as many sacks as completions (5). Miami finished with 131 yards and 6 first downs, but the defense did its job, and punter Brandon Fields had a sensational game. He punted 10 times, with the following net yardage: 45, 47, 38, 46, 62, 52, 58, 56, 46, 56. That's a net average — measuring where the other offense takes over rather than where the ball is caught — of 50.6 yards. And that 38-yarder? Downed at the 10-yard line. Great game by Fields. The league average for net yardage this season is 37.8.

18. New York Jets [12] — They did this last year, too. After a hot start, the Jets appeared to drop out of the playoff picture before rebounding to reach the AFC Championship Game. Will this year's team sneak into the playoffs and make a postseason run like that, too? There's no real reason to think so, other than that they did it last year. The offense has been putrid the last two weeks. Even good players and teams have slumps once in a while — look at Peyton Manning — but I think the good games were a lucky hot streak rather than this being an unlucky cold streak. Yes, the Jets are better than they've shown the past two games. They're not a good offense. It is plausible that New York could miss the playoffs, but I think it is extremely unlikely. They'll get in. Damien Woody will miss the rest of the regular season, and possibly the playoffs.

19. San Francisco 49ers [24] — Intercepted Matt Hasselbeck four times in a crucial divisional win. I'm surprised Brian Westbrook isn't getting more touches. Obviously the coaches like Anthony Dixon, and maybe they're concerned about Westbrook's durability, but he's an explosive player, and if I'm the Niners, I want the ball in his hands.

20. Houston Texans [19] — Was that the game of the year? It wasn't the prettiest game, even sloppy at times, but it was exciting. Houston outgained the Ravens 489-253, but lost on turnovers, special teams, penalties, and red zone play. The Texans are 1-6 since the bye. There will be a lot of talk, over the coming weeks, about Gary Kubiak's job security. I don't believe Kubiak is a great head coach, but I do think he's in the top 32, probably the top 24. I'd keep him.

21. Minnesota Vikings [21] — What would the score have been in Minnesota? The collapse of the Metrodome roof changed a Sunday home game into a Monday road game. Were the Giants going to outclass them regardless? Would the home crowd and a more familiar field have made a difference? Did the uncertainty and change of plans mess with their heads? The Vikings got routed in Week 14. Good games in the loss: Kevin Williams and Chris Kluwe.

22. Buffalo Bills [25] — Started 0-8, 3-2 since. The Bills scored more points in Week 11 against Cincinnati (49) than in the previous three games combined (43) or the following three games combined (also 43). Buffalo has been held below 20 in six of the last seven games, but the defense has picked up to keep them competitive. The Bills forced 5 fumbles this weekend, recovering 2.

23. Cleveland Browns [18] — Last week, I wrote that Seneca Wallace should be starting ahead of Jake Delhomme. This is obvious to me, like saying that carrots are healthier than marshmallows. Everywhere he's been, Wallace has outplayed the white QBs who started ahead of him. Four times, Wallace has thrown at least 100 passes in a season. In those four seasons, his passer rating is 83.7. The combined rating of Matt Hasselbeck (2006, '08, '09) and Delhomme ('10) is 71.0, and Wallace is higher in each individual season. Delhomme has played in five games this season, and been terrible in four of them. There's no excuse for a team with Peyton Hillis to have the 29th-ranked offense in the league.

24. St. Louis Rams [22] — Look, I know he's going to win the vote in a runaway, but Sam Bradford cannot be the Offensive Rookie of the Year. He can't. The Rams are 6-7, but if they played anything resembling a real schedule they'd probably be about 3-10, even though the defense is about average. This team has a very bad offense, ranking 25th in yardage and 26th in scoring. Bradford ranks 22nd in passer rating. That's good enough to be a starting QB — we need 32 — but it's below average. I realize quarterback is a uniquely important and challenging position, so maybe we'll say that's equivalent to being solidly average at another position. But in what universe is Bradford having a better season than LeGarrette Blount (667 yds, 4.5 avg, 5 TD), Chris Ivory (683 yds, 5.3 avg, 5 TD), Mike Williams (52 rec, 784 yds, 7 TD), and all of the rookie linemen who have secured starting jobs this season? It's mindless quarterback hype. Yeah, Bradford has had his moments, and certainly he could have a future at the position. Right now he has a lower passer rating than Alex Smith, and he's averaging 6.1 yards per attempt, lower than everyone except fellow rookie Jimmy Clausen.

25. Detroit Lions [27] — Broke a 19-game losing streak against the NFC North, winning a division game for the first time since 2007. It was also Detroit's first win all season in a game decided by less than 12 points. The Lions are not precisely a bad team; they could give a better fight to a top opponent than the Rams or 49ers could. But games like this, where the Lions do what they need to and close out a winnable game, are just too few and far between. As Andy Behrens wrote, "Drew Stanton's special brand of awful was just slightly better than Matt Flynn's brand of awful on Sunday."

26. Seattle Seahawks [23] — Lost by more than two touchdowns for the seventh time this season. Hey, remember when Matt Hasselbeck was good? That was three years ago. He's not good enough to start any more.

27. Washington Redskins [26] — Three straight losses, and five of the last six. Washington blew innumerable opportunities to win this week, including (but not limited to) two missed field goals from under 40 yards and a bad snap on an extra point that would have sent the game to overtime. Why not go for two there? Your offense is playing well, and your kicking has been terrible all game. Forget overtime, a two-point conversion wins it. This team can't get out of its own way.

28. Tennessee Titans [28] — A couple weeks ago, I voted for Marc Mariani as the AFC's Pro Bowl kick returner. On Thursday, Mariani fumbled a kickoff return and fair caught two of three punts, at least one of them returnable. For the season, Mariani has fair caught 40% of his punt returns and fumbled three times. If I was voting again, I would probably choose Brad Smith (NYJ).

29. Arizona Cardinals [31] — Jay Feely rushed for a touchdown and kicked field goals of 55, 49, 48, 36, and 23 yards, scoring a total of 25 points in the 43-13 victory over the Broncos. Tim Hightower also had a good game (148 yards, 2 TDs), and rookie QB John Skelton (15/37, 146 yards) didn't screw anything up too badly.

30. Denver Broncos [29] — One of three teams to fire its head coach during the 2010 season. Those three teams all lost this weekend. Maybe firing your coach during the season isn't a magic cure for losing!

31. Cincinnati Bengals [30] — Ten losses in a row. These players need to be more accountable to each other. If ownership had half a clue, it would cut ties with guys like Sideshow Chad and bring in some veteran leadership to get this functioning as a team again.

32. Carolina Panthers [32] — The only interesting thing about this team, I think, is how remarkably bad it is. Last year, I named the 2001 Panthers the 10th-worst team of the decade. That group went 1-15, got outscored by 157 points, and got George Seifert fired. I think this year's Panthers are worse. They're 1-12, -153 in point differential, with an outside shot at -200, and almost certainly will get John Fox fired.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 6:02 PM | Comments (0)

Fans Will Enjoy BCS Slate While Wishing For BCS Demise

It's about time that writers stop pretending that any arguments against the BCS can possibly remain original or novel. We all know choosing two teams out of 120 (or even about 70 BCS-conference programs) is generally impossible after 12 games against completely different teams. We know that deciding the participants of a national title on opinion is anathema to sport.

We know that too much money is made by the interested parties to allow change based on anything but money. However, we also know, that before the BCS, not two, but one team was selected for a national title throne, purely based on opinion.

Max Lerner once put it, "Always remember that when you choose the lesser of two evils, always remember that it is still an evil."

This year, though, the BCS got to hit off a tee, and predictably knocked selections out of the park. Basically, everything just made sense. The best two teams in college football, both unblemished, will play each other for the national title in a game that would never have happened before the BCS. Three other BCS bowls involve what are probably the next five best teams and another that recovered from a rough September to go 9-0 in conference play.

So college football fans will disregard the "evil" and enjoy what should be a fantastic BCS Bowl season anyway. Who could blame them?

But that doesn't mean that those same fans won't also wish something horrendous had undermined and embarrassed the BCS once and for all. After all, at some point, that bowl system and all its tradition gave way to the money-printing machine that is the BCS, as slight a competitive improvement as it was. There is precedent for a profitable status quo's overthrow, and fans have to be conflicted.

So here's a BCS bowl rundown, why each game is awesome, what could have possibly made it better, and what, conversely, could have made the BCS look stupid. You know, so you can weigh the short term positive against the long-term and unmet potential of BCS chaos.

BCS Title Game: Oregon vs. Auburn

What's awesome — Everything. Everyone knows that these two teams should be playing each other. Auburn is obviously explosive, especially recently, and especially with the game on the line: in its last three contests, it outscored SEC foes Georgia, Alabama, and South Carolina 77-16 in the second half. Oregon, meanwhile, rarely needed a good second half. Two teams all year kept the final margin of defeat to the Ducks under 17. Oregon's dynamic, unique attack that averages over 49 points and 534 yards per game, Cam Newton's ownership of the big moment, the intrigue of watching two teams that have never met and who had no common opponents, and you have everything you could ask for. Oh, and if you like your games with controversy, maybe a villain ... yeah.

What would have been more awesome — If we could raise college greats from the dead, return the living ones to form, and watch Bear Bryant and Joe Paterno take turns as captains picking teams from the pool. Seriously, there isn't much you can do to fix this game in theory, other than to promise us Oregon's prolific offense isn't inflated by any shortcomings in Pac-10 defenses and is destined to be ordinary against the Tigers D. And promise Auburn's six wins by one score or less, or its penchant for giving up serious points early in games, aren't serious character flaws. But Oregon's offense is just flat-out dangerous in any language, and that Auburn's late season and late game dominance says more about this teams than early turbulence. I think.

What would have been more awesomely awful for the BCS — Alabama knocks off Auburn, and the SEC possibly out of the title game. Cal finds a way to sneak another field goal onto the board against Oregon. Basically, anything derailing this game would have been glorious for anyone rooting for anarchy. Neither gets in? Awesome. One-loss Auburn or Oregon joins Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Stanford with serious cases as the best team in the country despite one slip-up. Better yet, watch the system put just one of those teams with comparable resumes against undefeated-yet-relatively-untested TCU. Or have Boise State's kicker not have two fatal system crashes and watch TCU face Boise State for a national title. See if anyone is screaming for at least a four- or eight-team playoff then? Also, Boise State, Ohio State/Wisconsin/Michigan State, and TCU could have resulted in five undefeated teams. That would have been delightful.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin vs. TCU

What's awesome — TCU, after being siphoned off to play at the kiddie table against Boise State last year, gets to test itself against a legit top-five power. Wisconsin has dropped 70 or more three times, twice on Big Ten teams, and averaged more points than Auburn. If TCU wins this game, the argument that the lesser-conference successes deserve a seat at the table gets stronger, making for a great storyline.

What could have been more awesome — I'm not sure that this game will be a blowout. TCU has proven to be a very good team by any measure. But you can't discount the possibility. Even if TCU is merely one of the best 10 teams in the land — no small achievement, and if true there is no justification that such a team should be undefeated with zero shot at a title — they could still find Wisconsin too much. Stanford, on the other hand, was impressive all year, going 11-1, and has Andrew Luck, perhaps the best pure quarterback in the country to throw up against Wisconsin's ultra-efficient Scott Tolzien. Oh, and it would have been nice to preserve the Pac-10 vs. Big 10 tradition in Pasadena in the final year before those conferences divorce an element of history and start their honeymoons with new conference championship games.

What could have been more awesomely awful for the BCS — TCU absolutely curb-stomps Wisconsin. Undefeated and having hammered a team that was a Duck-sneeze (or one loss to strangely over-achieving Michigan State) from the BCS title game, the Frogs wonder what they would have had to do to earn respect. (To enhance effect, pretend Wisconsin beat MSU and was odd man out of the BCS title game.) Meanwhile, people complain that they should have played someone. During the next couple months, they call powerful programs looking for a game. They hear a lot of "Uh, uh, uh .. we don't have any weekends that work out." **CLICK**

Sugar Bowl: Arkansas vs. Ohio State

What's awesome — The Big Ten's most explosive playmaker against the best Heisman-less quarterback in the SEC. Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor considered Michigan after a strong push by new coach Rich Rodriguez. That administration put in a spread offense that pushed highly-touted Ryan Mallett to transfer from Michigan to Arkansas just months earlier. Worked out for everyone (except maybe Michigan) as these are possibly the two best teams we haven't mentioned yet, in a potentially thrilling matchup.

What could have been more awesome — It's if Ohio State didn't have a couple of drubbings at the hands of the SEC to its name at BCS games in recent years holding back expectations. That said, Pryor's versatility has led to a different type of bowl team. Last year, the Buckeyes blasted a talented Oregon team in the Rose Bowl. I would be shocked if this resembled LSU or Florida marching over the Buckeyes' relatively vanilla offenses for titles.

What could have been more awesomely awful for the BCS — Ohio State loses an extra game and Michigan State fills in. Just doesn't have the umph with Michigan State instead.

Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Stanford

What's awesome — Luck has been mentioned, but this Stanford team is so much more. The Cardinal was 1-11 before Jim Harbaugh took over as coach. In four years, he took a mirror to 1-11. That's no joke. And Virginia Tech has had a nice turnaround of its own after dropping early games to Boise State and James Madison. (Before you take the predictable cheap shots for the JMU loss, let's remember that in the Colonial Athletic Associations the Dukes posted a solid ... eighth-place finish.)

What could have been more awesome — If Virginia Tech hadn't lost to JAMES FREAKING MADISON, we'd be looking at two 11-1 teams going at it, and the ACC wouldn't be the relative afterthought to Stanford's success story.

What could have been more awesomely bad for the BCS — Virginia Tech doesn't loose to JAMES FREAKING MADISON. Maybe they even survive the tight loss to Boise State. Now we have another BCS conference school finish undefeated, and their reward would be the second best team in the Pac-10 (albeit a good one) in a game that probably won't sell out, thanks to Stanford's small alumni base and Miami's apathy.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Connecticut

What's awesome — Uh, nice contrast between the schools' respective colors? I got nothing. Other than the fact that they quarantined two of the three least deserving teams in one Fiesta.

What could have been more awesome — If someone from the Big East wasn't awful? West Virginia winning the conference might have helped. But let's face it. The Big East is void of any teams that could hope to win any other BCS conference. Or the Mountain West. Or the WAC.

What could have been more awesomely awful for the BCS — If the problem wasn't so easily resolved without addressing our problems with the system. Watch the Big East lose its bid after TCU switches into the conference.

Oh well. It will take more than an uninspiring Big 12 champ playing against a team not even ranked in the BCS to make a case that this isn't one of the most righteous, just matchups the BCS ever created. This was the year where chaos threatened, but justice, at least in the short term, reigned. So enjoy these bowl matchups as extra sweet icing on what should be another tremendous bowl season this year.

Just remember that in the process, no progress was made towards eliminating the need to choose between evils in the long run.

Posted by Kyle Jahner at 2:33 PM | Comments (0)

December 13, 2010

New York Knicks Are a Tough Knock

Clichés aside, the NBA season is not a marathon. Teams like the 1971-72 Lakers and the 1995-96 Bulls made it look like a 400-meter heat. Most years, it's more of a 5K: a field mixed with elites in logo attire and weekend warriors wearing baseball caps backward, where those in good-enough shape can run hard from wire to wire knowing the finish line is never beyond the wall they'll hit in higher-endurance races.

The first recognition of progress in a 5K is the one-mile sign, and that's where we are this week. As the participants pass by, there are some noteworthy surprises in this field.

Most of us enter 5Ks to finish, and maybe lose a few pounds in the process. Winning is not on our radar. First place is pre-ordained to the long-limbed, sleek runners in tight spandex, like the Lakers and Celtics. They stretch and prance about on the front lawn near the sponsor tents, conducting mock starts while the rest of us sit under the elm tree waiting for our 27 minutes of hell in the blistering sun.

This past offseason, though, Los Angeles and Boston have been challenged by Oklahoma City and Miami. However, both the Thunder and Heat hit the start looking like they lied their way to the front by declaring bogus time estimates. When race organizers comp elites a front spot, it's so they won't have to weave through the midriff. They aren't supposed to get trampled by the pack. Nonetheless, the Thunder lost four of their first nine and the Heat eight of their first 17, much to the delight of curbside NBA onlookers. Winning streaks of five for OKC and eight-plus for Miami have helped both get back in the race at 17-8, but there's still a long way to the front of the pack.

That's where the 20-3 San Antonio Spurs find themselves, as the ageless Tim Duncan and diva-free Tony Parker wave off the attendants serving Dixie cupfuls of water and press on. They have to; their lead is only a game over the Dallas Mavericks in what is shaping up to be the best division in basketball. So much so that the New Orleans Hornets, the NBA's early frontrunners at 8-0, have dropped back to third after losing 8 of their last 11. The Hornets have gone off the shoulder and are bent over with hands on knees, puking on their track shoes. The good news is that nobody in New Orleans is watching, as the growing deficit in owner George Shinn's checkbook has dwarfed the growing deficit in the Southwest Division standings.

But no team has the NBA doing double-takes more than the New York Knicks. They are the antithesis of the Hornets, starting out 3-8 before ripping off 13 wins in their last 14 games. The most recent came on Sunday when they outlasted the Denver Nuggets, 129-125, at Madison Square Garden, extending their current winning streak to eight.

Not coincidentally, center Amar'e Stoudemire's consecutive 30-point scoring streak has also reached eight. Despite sitting out four minutes of Sunday's fourth quarter after picking up his fifth foul, Stoudemire turned in a 24-point second half. Ten of those came in the final six minutes of the game when he hit five of six shots after the Nuggets had gone on an 18-8 run to take a one-point lead while he was on the bench.

The Knicks currently hold the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference and will be the team nobody wants to face in April. Although New Yorkers will argue it's not all Stoudemire, he is at the heart of the matter. His lane presence has opened the floor for other Knick shooters, and his own shooting touch has stretched interior defenses and made them vulnerable to penetration.

If this were the finish line rather than the one-mile mark, Stoudemire would be the proverbial slam-dunk for MVP, but he isn't the only Knick due for some hardware. At this point, Head Coach Mike D'Antoni deserves Coach of the Year, and President of Basketball Operations Donnie Walsh Executive of the Year.

Walsh's stamp is all over this Knicks roster, starting with his offseason signing of free agent point guard Raymond Felton. The ex-Bobcat is averaging 18.3 points and 8.4 assists per game, both career highs. Joining him in the backcourt is June's second-round draft pick Landry Fields, who has had six double-doubles in his first 24 NBA games and captured Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month honors in November.

At forward, 6'9" former Italian League star Danilo Gallinari, whose selection by Walsh with the sixth pick in the 2008 draft brought out the worst in Knicks fans, has had a solid start, averaging 15.3 points and 4.7 rebounds. Rounding out the front court, 6'8" Wilson Chandler is the only Isiah Thomas holdover in the starting lineup, but that's fine with D'Antoni; the fourth-year Knick has averaged 20 points over the current eight-game winning streak.

The scariest part of the Knicks lineup may well be that Walsh's offseason dealings have given the Knicks room to add another max player, and Carmelo Anthony has been vocal about his desire to head east.

The one knock on the Knicks this year has been their play against the NBA's crème. Going into Sunday, New York was only 2-4 against teams with winning records. The win over Denver starts what D'Antoni refers to as "the next part of the schedule," when the Knicks face seven playoff-caliber teams in an eight-game stretch through New Year's Eve.

They continue by hosting the 19-4 Celtics on Wednesday in what will be the first meaningful game between these old nemeses since the Knicks' decisive Game 5 victory in an Eastern Conference first round playoff series more than 20 years ago. But those closer to this rivalry will direct you to the Willis Reed days of the early 1970s to find the passion that will rock MSG this week.

A win against the C's may only gain them one step on the frontrunners, but it will send Boston a message that the Atlantic Division, long a foregone conclusion, is still in contention. If anything, the guys in spandex will get a little scare from the guys wearing backward baseball caps.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 11:59 AM | Comments (0)

December 9, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 14

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Indianapolis @ Tennessee (+3)

Peyton Manning threw 4 interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns, in last week's 38-35 overtime loss to the Cowboys. Manning has thrown 11 interceptions in the Colts last three games, all losses, and at 6-6, trail the Jaguars by a game in the AFC South race.

"Frankly, I'm stunned," Manning said, "that we were ever 6-3. It seems I'm regressing. I'm playing like a rookie, or a sixth-year Eli Manning. I've thrown 4 interceptions in the last two games that have been returned for touchdowns. I've been known to 'read' a defense; lately, I've shown a penchant to 'feed' a defense.

Maybe our lack of a defense, or a running game, or a go-to tight end, or a complimentary wide receiver to Reggie Wayne is the reason for my troubles. Maybe I'm trying to do too much. As my good friend Ben Roethlisberger knows, 'forcing it' usually leads to trouble."

While the Colts have lost three in a row, the Titans have dropped five straight, and questions abound as to Jeff Fisher's future as head coach.

"Rumors of my demise," said Jeff Fisher, "are as premature as those of Manning's. Like my offense, I'm not going anywhere. As for Manning, his lackluster play is obviously a transparent ploy to lower his market value, thus allowing the Colts to justifiably offer him less for an extension and spend more on things desperately needed, like a durable running back, or a bionic arm for Bob Sanders. That's just a testament to the unselfishness of Manning. I would never consider excluding Peyton from a meeting. Peyton has no regrets about saying to consumers, 'Cut that meat!' I have no qualms about saying to Vince Young, 'Cut that meeting.'"

One team will rebound; one will fall further into the spiraling depths of despair. It's hard to imagine the Colts falling below .500; then again, it's hard to imagine that Eli could possibly be considered the better Manning. If the Colts are to make the playoffs, they'll do so astride the back of Peyton.

Manning throws for 345 yards and 3 scores, and the Colts survive a big day from Chris Johnson.

Indianapolis wins, 27-22.

Cleveland @ Buffalo (-1)

Peyton Hillis is sure to get a workout when the Browns make the short trip across Lake Erie to face the Bills, who sport the NFL's worst rushing defense, giving up an average of 171 yards on the ground per game.

"They're calling it the 'Lake-Effect Snow Bowl,'" said Eric Mangini said. "You know, Hillis is a lot like snow — he's white, and they had enough of him in Denver. And speaking of 'heavy snow,' Hillis is a lot like 'Wite-out,' in that he's well-equipped to erase mistakes made by Jake Delhomme."

The Bills are 2-10 after taking a 38-14 pounding in Minnesota, done in by 5 turnovers and 210 yards rushing by the Vikings. Buffalo can expect a steady dose of Hillis in snowy and windy conditions that are not conducive to a passing game.

"What's less conducive to a passing game than December Buffalo weather?" said Bills defensive back Jarius Byrd. "Jake Delhomme. Maybe the Browns have a definitive edge in the running game, but we have a bigger advantage with our own personal conduit to the heavens in wide receiver Steve Johnson. When Steve enters the room, you can't help but notice the aura surrounding him, nor can you help exclaiming 'Tweet Jesus! It's Steve Johnson!'"

Hillis rushes for 122 hard-earned yards, and Josh Cribbs returns a punt for a score. Johnson posts 8 catches for 101 yards, and scores on an 11-yard pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick, then faces Mecca and bows five times.

Cleveland wins, 23-19.

Atlanta @ Carolina (+7)

The 10-2 Falcons face the Panthers for the first of two games in four weeks against Carolina in Atlanta's quest to win the NFC South and secure home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. The Falcons completed the season sweep of the Bucs, winning 28-24 in Tampa last week.

"We've won our share of close games," Mike Smith said, "and it's taking a toll on me. My white hairs now have white hairs. Why, just the other day, I was accosted by Emmitt Smith, Keith Hernandez, and Walt Frazier in the 'Just For Men' van. Emmitt said to me, 'Your dome is chrome, Mike Smiff.' I politely declined their offer of a toothbrush and black shoe polish.

"Now we've got Matt Ryan to thank for much of our late-game success. They call him 'Matty Ice,' which is also a local mixed drink favorite, consisting of water on the rocks. Sounds rather boring, right? Well, the water in Matt's veins may be ice cold, but the liquidity of his marketing potential is lukewarm."

Carolina jumped out to a 14-0 lead in Seattle last week, but collapsed in the second half, eventually falling 31-14. The Panthers are now 1-11, and are facing a highly-motivated Falcons team.

"Seeding is indeed important," John Fox said. "I should know, because shortly after the season ends for us, I will be 'sup-planted' as head coach. But the No. 1 seed is of no concern to us; we're all about the No. 32 seed. We're 'bottom feeders,' as well as 'bottom seeders.' So Sunday's game is a case of 'I'll scratch your back if you scratch mine.' An Atlanta victory does us both good."

Matt Ryan throws for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns, and Michael Turner punches in a short TD run to seal the victory.

Atlanta wins, 27-21.

NY Giants @ Minnesota (+1½)

Brett Favre was knocked out early in last Sunday's 38-14 win over the Bills, succumbing to a shoulder sprain when the Bills' Arthur Moats flattened him on his first pass attempt. Tarvaris Jackson replaced Favre and faired well, but Leslie Frazier said if Favre can play, he will start against the Giants.

"I fully expect Favre to play," Frazier said. "He's become the poster boy for Viking resiliency. In fact, he texted me a picture of his sprained shoulder, with the caption 'Hung Like a Norse.' Unlike previous texts, this wasn't a picture of a dangling and useless appendage. One doesn't amass a remarkable 297-game consecutive starts streak, and an NFL investigation, without the ability to stick it out."

With a gimpy Favre expected the start, the Giants aggressive defensive front should come after the aging veteran with abandon. The G-Men sacked Donovan McNabb 4 times last week as the Giants built an early lead and unleashed their two-headed rushing attack.

"I believe Favre is listed on the injury report as 'Yes,'" Tom Coughlin said. "His pain management skills and second to none. I hear they've named a pain killer after him. It's called the 'Vike-O-Din,' and it's quite effective at numbing pain, although it usually returns around August.

"It would seem reasonable for us to pressure Favre with our front four relentlessly and hurry him into making mistakes. We've got a different plan of action. Why bother pressuring Favre? If we give him unlimited time in the pocket, it will work in our favor. History has shown that the longer Favre has to think about something, the more likely it is he'll make the wrong decision."

Last week, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs proved that they are the key to the Giants late-season push. If Bradshaw can hold on to the ball, and Jacobs to his helmet, Eli Manning's job becomes easier.

The Giants rush gets to Favre early, forcing a turnover that Bradshaw turns into a 5-yard touchdown run. Favre hangs in against the onslaught, and throws two touchdowns. In the end, Lawrence Tynes' 37-yard field goal wins it for the G-Men.

New York wins, 31-28.

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-9)

The Steelers wrested the AFC North division lead from the Ravens, edging Baltimore 13-10 at M&T Bank Stadium on Ben Roethlisberger's late touchdown pass to J.R. Redmond. Roethlisberger, already playing on a sprained foot, suffered a broken nose on the Steelers' first series.

"Steelers/Ravens affairs are always physical," Roethlisberger said. "And this one was no different. There were broken noses, hard hits, concussions, injuries, penalties, and fines. Then the game started. The NFL will surely be reviewing the videotape, and if they can keep their eyes off of James Harrison, they'll likely see a number of illegal hits. It's a shame James has to dial back his physical play just so he can afford to pay his bills. He has to tip-toe the delicate balance between his 'appetite for destruction' and his bank account's 'appetite for deduction."

The Bengals have lost nine in a row to fall to 2-10 on the year. Last week, a late penalty doomed Cincy in a 34-30 home loss to the Saints.

"We should have known the Saints were bluffing," said Chad Ochocinco. "What kind of team would go for it on 4th-and-2 from their opponents' 7-yard line, down three points, with only seconds remaining, and risk losing the game as opposed to taking your chances in overtime? We would, that's who."

Cincinnati is the NFL's version of "lost and found;" they lose because they inevitably find ways to. Sunday is no different. With the Bengals down three and driving, Carson Palmer hits Terrell Owens on an medium-range crossing route. Owens then collides with Chad Ochocinco and fumbles, as Palmer cries "T. Oh No!" Lawrence Timmons recovers, and the Steelers run out the clock.

Pittsburgh wins, 29-24.

Oakland @ Jacksonville (-5)

After bullying the Titans 17-6 in Nashville, the Jaguars took over sole possession of first place in the AFC South when the Cowboys beat the Colts 38-35. Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 186 yards to lead the Jags, who face the Colts in Indianapolis in Week 15.

"This should be a classic matchup," said Jack Del Rio. "The 7-5 Jags, who rushed for 186 yards last week, against the 6-6 Raiders, who amassed 251 on the ground. The running will be 'north-south,' but the win-loss records appear to go 'east-west.'"

Like the Jaguars, the Raiders ran their Week 13 opponent into the ground. Oakland rushed for 251 yards on a whopping 52 carries in their 28-13 win over the Chargers in San Diego.

"And that was against the NFL's top-rated defense," Tom Cable said. "We're not impressed by stats here in Oakland, which would likely explain my tenure as head coach. Al Davis is not by any means easy to please, but he knows what he wants in a head coach. You have to be malleable, win an occasional game, punch a pencil-necked assistant coach from time to time, and resemble 'The Thing' of the 'Fantastic Four.'"

Jacksonville wins, 26-24.

Green Bay @ Detroit (+7)

The Packers ran past the 49ers 34-16 last Sunday, improving to 8-4 and remaining one game behind the Bears in the NFC North race. Aaron Rodgers passed for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns, and will look to do the same against a Lions defense which has shown susceptibility to the pass.

"Unlike most teams," Rodgers said, "we pass to set up the run. And we like setting up the run. Like a certain former Packer quarterback in a situation with the NFC title hanging in the balance, I'd rather throw than run."

Detroit will look for their first division win and an end to a five-game losing streak that has left them with a 2-10 record.

"We've were cursed again by a bad call against the Bears," said Jim Schwartz. "If it's not the NFL rule book stealing a touchdown from Calvin Johnson, it's an antsy official calling a personal foul on Ndamukong Suh for legally shoving Jay Cutler to the ground. Cutler's a 'push-y.' I'm amazed by the official's call. The NFL wants to clean up unnecessary roughness, but the one time a player forgoes a tackle for a two-handed tag, he's penalized, and fined $15,000. And the NFL's officiating supervisors will just brush it off, saying it was a 'judgment call.' Here's my judgment call: Foot Locker employees could call a better game than NFL officials."

Rodgers throws for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns, and is penalized for a helmet-to-helmet hit in the third quarter when he celebrates a touchdown with Greg Jennings.

Green Bay wins, 35-24.

Tampa Bay @ Washington (+2)

The Bucs lost a tough 28-24 decision to the Falcons, losing a 10-point fourth quarter lead and a chance to cut Atlanta's lead in the NFC South to one game. As it is now, Tampa is 7-5 and will likely have to scramble to pull out a wild card playoff berth.

"I guess I'll have to concede," said Raheem Morris, "that the Falcons are the class of the NFC. They've beaten us twice, and as the saying goes, 'To be the best, you've got to beat the best.' And they did.

"Like us, the Redskins are in dire need of a win. I imagine the intensity of a Buccaneers Vs. Redskins game will match that of an Aliens vs. Predators showdown."

Albert Haynesworth continues to be a distraction for the Redskins. He was inactive for last Sunday's game against the Giants, despite declaring himself ready after missing Friday's practice with an illness. In Haynesworth's absence, the Giants rushed for 197 yards and 4 touchdowns in their 31-7 win. On Tuesday, Haynesworth was suspended without pay for the Redskins remaining four games.

"Albert hasn't exactly accepted my way of doing things," Mike Shanahan said. "In fact, he's been defiant. I expect a 'commitment to excellence;' Albert's given me nothing but a 'commitment to insolence.' And a lot of his teammates are irritated. Like an out-of-shape and overweight Haynesworth, they're 'fed up.'

"But I can't let this dampen my holiday spirit. If Albert's of no use to us on the field, we'll wrap him in swaddling clothing, surround him with adoring wise men and farm animals, and re-enact an early-season conditioning requirement. We'll call it 'A Weigh in a Manger.'"

What's all this talk in Washington about the lack of jobs? There's an opening in the Redskins' defensive line right now. Applicants should hurry, because it will soon be filled by LeGarrett Blount.

Buccaneers win, 23-16.

St. Louis @ New Orleans (-9)

The Saints remained hot on the tails of the Falcons with a tough 34-30 win in Cincinnati. New Orleans is 9-3, one game behind Atlanta, and beginning with the Rams, faces three likely playoff teams, with the Ravens and Falcons to follow.

"It was with a bit of trickery," Sean Payton said, "that we beat the Bengals. We baited them into a neutral zone infraction on 4th-and-2 when it was obvious we weren't going to snap the ball. If there's one thing to be said about the 2-10 Bengals, it's that they 'bite.' We were welcomed to 'The Jungle,' where we've got fun and games."

The Rams remained tied for the NFC West lead with a 19-6 over the Cardinals. It will be a tough road to the division crown, with the AFC West-leading Chiefs visiting St. Louis in Week 15, and a visit to Seattle on the slate for Week 17.

"We're focusing solely on the Saints," said Sam Bradford. "A game in New Orleans is never an easy proposition, and this game reminds of renowned Cherokee tribal elder 'Big Easy.' He called his spacious, three bedroom teepee the 'Superdome,' and defended it like a warrior. We expect the same from the Saints."

New Orleans wins, 30-24.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-4½)

The 4-8 49ers face a do-or-die situation this Sunday against the Seahawks who, along with the Rams, lead the NFC West with a 6-6 record. With a loss, San Fran would fall three games back, with three games remaining, which would effectively end their playoff chances, which realistically ended approximately two months ago.

"The Seahawks are the 'class of the NFC West,'" Mike Singletary, "a term that is clearly an oxymoron, much like 'All-Pro 49er quarterback,' or 'Mike Singletary, 2011 head coach.'"

The Seahawks finally got a big game from Marshawn Lynch, whom Seattle acquired from Buffalo in a trade on October 10th. Lynch rushed for 83 yards and 3 touchdowns in Seattle's 31-14 win over Carolina, and he'll likely remain their centerpiece as they battle for the NFC West crown.

"I'm sure Marshawn was happy to leave Buffalo to join a division contender," said Pete Carroll. "He's the 'Beast From the Least From the East.' And he's difficult to tackle. Prosecutors of O.J. Simpson have commented that like the 'Juice,' Marshawn is a load to 'bring down.'"

In NFC West divisional games, you might as well flip a coin to determine a winner. So here's a quarter, flip it, and call someone who cares.

San Francisco wins, 27-20.

New England @ Chicago (+3)

The 9-3 Bears face their sternest test of the year when Tom Brady and the Patiots invade Soldier Field, intent on extending their dominance beyond the reaches of the AFC. New England crushed the Jets 45-3 on Monday night, and now faces a Bears team intent on proving its worth as a Super Bowl contender.

"That makes it official," said Brady. "We are the clearly the best team in the AFC. We've got wins over the Ravens, Steelers, and Jets by a combined score of 107-49. And those three teams are supposed to have the league's best defenses? I 'can't stop' thinking about that.

"Hey, I hear Jay Cutler had a fling with Kristin Cavallari. Obviously, the D-list dating pool is finding matches. Jay Cutler is to Tom Brady as Kristin Cavallari is to Giselle Bundchen. Make that a word analogy problem on the Wonderlic test and even Vince Young could get it right. I'm a Super Bowl-winning quarterback married to the world's most beautiful supermodel. I know snap counts as well as I do thread counts. And I know a poser when I see one. The Bears are not in our same conference; more importantly, they're not in the same league."

Cutler and the Bears have faced criticism all year, and a win on Sunday would certainly silence the critics.

"If we beat the Patriots," Cutler said, "you can expect an updated version of 'The Super Bowl Shuffle.' And expect Jim McMahon to remain the greatest football-playing white rapper of all-time."

Brady again executes the Patriot short passing game to perfection, utilizing the dumps, the dumps, the lovely Brady dumps, to Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and the rest of the gang. The Pats survive a fast start from the Bears, but quickly escape a 6-0 hole. Brady throws for 256 yards and 3 touchdowns.

New England wins, 27-22.

Miami @ NY Jets (-6)

The Jets must quickly regroup from Monday's humiliating 45-3 loss in New England, a defeat so incapacitating, it could derail the Jets entire season, unless Rex Ryan acts quickly to recharge the team's confidence.

"In times like this," said Rex Ryan, "one needs guidance, and I found it in the words of my father, coaching legend Buddy Ryan. Then I went out and punched my offensive coordinator and my defensive coordinator.

"Trust me, there was no laughing on the Jets sideline. But there was plenty in the Gillette Stadium stands. I applaud the Patriots, for respectfully running up the score on us. Bill Belichick is the master of preparation, and the Patriots were well-prepared. After such a debilitating loss, it's obvious we need to work on our preparation, for a wild card playoff game on the road."

The 6-6 Dolphins are four games behind the AFC East-leading Patriots, and while a playoff berth is out of the question, a winning record is not. After the Jets game, the 'Fins host the Bills and Lions, followed by a Week 17 game at New England.

"We could conceivably finish 10-6 and not make the playoffs," Tony Sparano said. "And we could conceivably finish 6-10 and not make the playoffs. So, conceivably, we're not going to make the playoffs."

Jets win, 28-19.

Denver @ Arizona (+3½)

The Cardinals fell to 3-9 after a 19-6 home loss to the Rams, Arizona's seventh consecutive loss. Derek Anderson was pulled in the fourth quarter after taking several hard hits, and going 7-for-20 for 93 yards and 1 interception.

"Obviously," said Ken Whisenhunt, "it's not the first time Anderson's been knocked silly. Derek giggles like a schoolgirl, and plays like one, as well.

With Anderson and Max Hall both questionable for Sunday's game, we may have to start rookie John Skelton, whose inexperience has earned him the nickname 'Green' Skelton, which is no laughing matter, although it would be were John related to legendary comedian Red Skelton."

After Denver's 10-6 loss in Kansas City dropped them to 3-9, Josh McDaniels was fired on Monday and was replaced on an interim basis by running backs coach Eric Studesville.

"Eric will do a good job," said a departing McDaniels. "The 'Stude' abides. I'd like to think I was just ahead of my time as coaching abilities. Someday, the Broncos organization will look back on my firing with regret, just as they are now looking back on my hiring with regret. I think Grammy Award-winning producer/rapper Timbaland said it best when he sang, 'This club can't even handle me right now.'"

Skelton throws 3 interceptions and loses a fumble, leading a frustrated Darnell Dockett to scribble "Helton Skelton" in eye black on the Cardinals locker room wall.

Denver wins, 27-24.

Kansas City @ San Diego (-7)

The Chargers lost their first game in December since 2005, falling 28-13 to the Raiders at Qualcomm Stadium, suffering a loss that severely handicaps their playoff hopes. Now 6-6, the Chargers must beat the 8-4 Chiefs to stay in the division hunt; a loss would leave them three games out of first with three games to play.

"So the bubble has been burst," said Norv Turner. "We can lose in December, which likely means we still can't win in February. Now I find it interesting that Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers have all but handed the NFL MVP award to Tom Brady."

Kansas City whipped the Chargers 21-7 to open the season, a win which heralded the Chiefs as a real contender in the AFC West. Another win would likely sew up a division title.

"We've got an opportunity to do something special," said Todd Haley. "And that's beat a division rival and get their coach fired for the second consecutive week. Jeff Fisher will thank us one day in the upcoming season when he's offered the Denver or San Diego job."

Chargers win, 26-21.

Philadelphia @ Dallas (+3)

The Eagles are tied with the Giants for first in the NFC East in a battle that likely won't be decided until the regular season's final week. Both the Eagles and Giants face pivotal road contests in advance of their huge showdown in the New Meadowlands in Week 15.

"It amazes me that the NFC East has come down to a two-team race," Andy Reid said, "when at the year's start, it looked like a wide-open division. I guess the great 'Dandy' Don Meredith's catchphrase of 'Turn out the lights, the parity's over' enjoys a little more profundity."

The Cowboys can easily lay claim to the title of the NFL's best 4-8 team. That's because the 49ers are the only other 4-8 team in the NFL, and the Cowboys are better than the 49ers. At least on paper.

"We've got three wins under Jason Garrett," said Miles Austin, "and four wins under .500."

Philadelphia wins, 33-27.

Baltimore @ Houston (+3)

The Ravens are certainly seething after blowing a fourth-quarter lead last week against the Steelers, falling 13-10 after Joe Flacco's fumble led to Pittsburgh's go-ahead score. Baltimore lost its first home game of the year, and fell to 8-4 on the season.

"They say defense wins championships," Derrick Mason. "I'm not sure that saying is always true, but I hope it is, because our offense damn sure won't win one."

The Texans may be 5-7, but in the AFC South, that's "not bad" because the division as a whole is "not good."

"To win," said Gary Kubiak, "we'll have to be balanced on offense and show discipline on defense and play well on special teams and execute in all other phases of the game and only the can we expect to win."

That's called a "run-on" sentence, so Kubiak inadvertently just invited the Ravens to do so.

Ray Rice rushes for 115 yards and catches 8 passes for 85 yards, and scores 2 touchdowns.

Baltimore wins, 31-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:22 PM | Comments (0)

December 8, 2010

The Empire Strikes Back

"You have controlled your fear. Now release your anger. Only your hatred can destroy me." — Darth Vader, The Empire Strikes Back

The Duke Blue Devils knocked off the Butler Bulldogs Saturday for the second time in 2010. But unlike their national final matchup in which Gordon Heyward's half-court near miss threatened the hierarchy of college basketball before bouncing harmlessly away, Saturday's contest was about restoring the natural order. And this time, Cinderella was home and in bed hours before midnight.

In the context of the past two decades, this result was as unexpected as a sunrise. Judging from that distance, Mike Krzyzewski's fourth national title in 20 years and a follow-up routing of a non-conference foe look like just another link in a chain of Blue Devil dominance. But as recently as nine months ago, this was hardly the case. Instead, the twin defeats of the Bulldogs served as an announcement and reiteration: Duke is back.

To be fair, Duke was never really "gone." During the Blue Devils' Final Four absence of 2005 through 2009, Duke still made the NCAA tournament every year seeded sixth or better and won at least one tournament game in all but one of those seasons. There are many programs, perhaps as many as 90 percent of Division 1, that would call that a "golden age." But not in Durham.

Instead, the Duke program was perceived as sliding. The Blue Devils' high-profile losses to more athletic teams such as LSU in 2005 and West Virginia in 2008 fed the convenient narrative that Duke players were harder working, but less talented prospects. And no player exemplified that stereotype quite like J.J. Redick, Duke's catch-and-shoot savant.

Even regionally, the Duke luster had waned. In the five years after that 2004 Final Four appearance, arch-rival North Carolina won two NCAA titles, while the Blue Devils never made it past the Sweet 16. Roy Williams realized his Chapel Hill destiny, and the Tar Heels seemed far more comfortable managing the two-way traffic of recruiting in the one-and-done era.

And then in April, the story flipped. The Blue Devils still lacked surefire lottery picks and the kinds of athletes that scouts wrote sonnets about, and Duke entered the NCAAs with a relative void of pre-tournament buzz. And yet six wins and three weeks later, the Duke mystique was restored, just like that.

At the program's peak, the letters D-U-K-E on the front of jerseys cast a conquering spell over opponents and coaches (and, some would argue, referees and the media). This was due in great part to a string of high-profile recruits. Heck, even Kobe Bryant said that had he slummed for a year or two in college, he would have done it at Duke.

Now Coach K deemphasizes the [John] Caliparian pursuit of one-and-dones, and that makes a return to the era of jock-and-awe unlikely. To that end, Duke still has not raised its profile to pre-2004 levels. However, 2010 has seen the peak of a second bit of Blue Devil witchcraft: Duke hate.

After a few years of hibernation, the cries of preferential treatment and Duke fatigue are creeping back into the zeitgeist. The program that started out as an underdog beloved by media and fans is back, black hat and all.

As sports fans, we often write the eulogies of dynasties far too early, but we gleefully write them as soon as possible for the teams and players we dislike. Duke goes three seasons without earning a No. 1 seed? The reign of terror is over! Someone register FireCoachK.com!

More realistically, Coach K whiffed on a few recruits like Eric Boateng and Shaun Livingston and the Blue Devils lost a few more high-profile games than usual in the middle of the decade. The facilities did not change, the history did not change, and most importantly, the man in charge did not change. On Wall Street, they would call that an opportunity to buy low.

Duke might not lead the country in winning games by simply getting off the bus anymore. But if the country's gag reaction to its return to the college hoops spotlight is any indication, 2010 is just another year in the Blue Devils' reign of disdain.

Corrie Trouw is the founder of Pigskinology.com.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 6:09 PM | Comments (0)

Sincerely, Adrian Gonzalez

What if you broke into the hotel room of Adrian Gonzalez, looked through his things, and found a diary? What would it say? Here is a possible answer:

June 2000

I DID IT! Today is a day I will never forget. I was the first overall pick of the 2000 draft today. Looks like I am going to Florida! Sure, they are a horrible team, but every first round pick has to start out their career with a horrible team. I'll just do my best in my time here and try to make it onto a better team. But for now, I did it! My life dream is complete! Florida, here I come.

July 2003

Just heard I was traded to Texas. I would have loved to go to a better team, but I have great confidence in that club. At this point, I don't even want to win, I just need to make it to the Majors. I can't even imagine playing with guys like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, and Rafael Palmeiro. Wow.

April 2004

What a day! My first game in the major leagues. I went 0-for-3, I am not too happy about that, but meeting playing with my idol Mark Teixeira was just incredible. Thanks to the Yankees, I never got my chance to play with A-Rod, but it was kind of cool to play with Alfonso Soriano. Don't tell anyone I said this, but I am glad Rafael Palmeiro is gone. I'm telling you, he definitely took some kind of steroids. Either way, this is it! The beginning of my major league career. I never want to go back to the minors again!

January 2006

I started in Florida, then went to Texas, and now I am off to San Diego. I must say, all of this trading is kind of depressing, but at least I am going to a better team. The Padres made the playoffs last year. It's such a bad division that maybe we can make it to the playoffs this year. I hope so. I haven't traveled all the way across the country for nothing!

June 2010

Starting to hear about some trade rumors. Some teams are looking after me, trying to get a deal done. We are in the thick of a pennant race, so I can't see any deal getting done. But, I gotta tell you, this team really doesn't have what it takes to keep up with the Rockies and Giants. I'll have to just wait one more year.

November 2010

I hit 30 home runs again this year. That's four years in a row. What do I have to do? Just when it looks like I might get a chance to win it all, our team collapses. I never really wanted to get traded to the Rangers or Padres, but I dealt with it. Now, when I really want to get traded, it just won't happen. I'm trying to be patient, but come on already!

December 2010

FINALLY, FINALLY, FINALLY! I'm going to the Boston Red Sox. Great fans, great division, great team! Finally, I will know what to expect from my team. Honestly, I can't wait for the energy when we play the Yankees; it's gotta be better than when the Padres played the Rockies. Wow! This is awesome. And, plus, I will finally be hitting in a hitters' ballpark. Let's see if I can break 50 home runs this year. Maybe I'll have a bet with David Ortiz. Hahahahaha! This is great. Now we are talking about an extension. That would be nice, I don't want to risk going to another horrible team. 29-years-old, and now my career has really began!

Posted by Jess Coleman at 4:22 PM | Comments (1)

December 7, 2010

NFL Week 13 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Teams mathematically eliminated from postseason contention: Bengals, Bills, Broncos, Cowboys, Lions, and Panthers. Theoretically, the 3-9 Cardinals could still win the NFC West.

* Weather started having a major impact on games this weekend, with temperatures below 40° in most outdoor stadiums, and strong winds that affected kicking and passing. Home field is more important than ever at this time of year.

* Most humiliating loss each week: (1) SEA over SF 31-6, (2) ATL over ARI 41-7, (3) PHI over JAC 28-3, (4) SD over ARI 41-10, (5) DET over STL 44-6, (6) NO over TB 31-6, (7) OAK over DEN 59-14, (8) OAK over SEA 33-3, (9) GB over DAL 45-7, (10) PHI over WAS 59-28, (11) GB over MIN 31-3, (12) SF over ARI 27-6, (13) NE over NYJ 45-3. There are some doozies in there.

* Longtime Packer receiver Donald Driver had the highlight of the week, breaking at least four tackles on a 61-yard touchdown reception.

* I think Elvis Dumervil's season-ending injury just cost Josh McDaniels a job. Well, that's fair.

***

I often use the beginning of this column to discuss NFL announcers and analysts. When I do, I generally intend less to criticize, demean, or mock those announcers and analysts than I do to correct bad ideas, to identify misinformation they have intentionally or unintentionally led their audience to believe. I generally like NBC's Sunday night booth. Al Michaels is a professional play-by-play man, and Cris Collinsworth sometimes makes very good points, noticing things I never would have picked up. He's also willing to criticize players and coaches, which I appreciate. If you can't be candid, you're deliberately concealing information from your audience, and that makes you untrustworthy.

Unfortunately, Michaels and Collinsworth are sometimes less than totally trustworthy for other reasons. Collinsworth said before the Sunday night game that Joe Flacco had been playing as well over the last five or six weeks as anyone in the NFL. Did that strike anyone else as, well, not true? I live in a television market that (for reasons beyond my understanding) shows a lot of Baltimore games, so I've seen most of Flacco's performances during that time, and I can say with confidence that there's no way Flacco has played as well recently as Michael Vick or Philip Rivers. I realize we can't measure this sort of thing exclusively with stats, but I decided to look it up. From Weeks 7-12:

Tom Brady: 124-190, 1500 yds, 13 TD, 0 INT, 112.2 rating, 5-1 record
Matt Cassel: 117-188, 1456 yds, 15 TD, 1 INT, 110.6 rating, 4-2 record
Michael Vick: 112-172, 1444 yds, 9 TD, 2 INT, 103.9 rating, 4-1 record
Aaron Rodgers: 111-168, 1399 yds, 10 TD, 2 INT, 106.7 rating, 4-1 record
Philip Rivers: 112-156, 1354 yds, 11 TD, 4 INT, 110.9 rating, 4-1 record
Joe Flacco: 107-160, 1321 yds, 11 TD, 2 INT, 109.9 rating, 4-1 record
Matt Ryan: 130-186, 1300 yds, 10 TD, 1 INT, 105.1 rating, 5-0 record

Vick's numbers include the Week 13 Thursday night game, for what that's worth. Flacco comes out better than I expected, really. But you could easily argue that Flacco was the seventh-best quarterback in the league during that period. We can point out that he's played well without stretching the truth.

Near the end of the third quarter, Michaels and Collinsworth went into a prolonged ecstasy over Ray Lewis after he made an assist on a tackle. They didn't even mention Brandon McKinney, the other Raven involved. This sort of crap sickens me. Yes, Lewis is a great player, but he just made a routine play, and he didn't even do it by himself. If you're going to write Lewis a damn poem, the least you can do is mention that McKinney was in on the play, too.

I also wish announcers would more consistently acknowledge when they're wrong. Fourth quarter, 4:00 left, Baltimore's up 10-7. Collinsworth complains that the Ravens should be passing, that their run game has been ineffective all night. That's true, but Pittsburgh's offense hasn't done anything, either. Why not see what you can do on the ground, and even if you have to punt, you run two minutes off the clock and give the Steelers 80 yards to go? Well, Baltimore passes, and :40 later, Flacco gets sacked. He fumbles, Pittsburgh takes over at the 9-yard line and scores a game-winning touchdown. Here's where you admit, at least jokingly, that following your advice probably just cost them the game. Nothing.

All I'm asking for is accuracy and accountability. That should be a minimum standard for a professional broadcast. That's not unreasonable, is it? Okay, lecture's over for now. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. New England Patriots [3] — Masterful gameplan and execution. Forget the three sacks: Brady was never under pressure. The Patriots consistently made the right adjustments and play-calls for New York's defense. Facing one of the premier defenses in the NFL, the Pats put together two 90-yard TD drives and for the second week in a row hung 45 on the scoreboard. Over the last month, New England has averaged 40 points per game. If there's a concern, it's the defense, which looked great against the Jets, but had allowed the most yardage in the NFL as we entered the week. Just before halftime, Ron Jaworski gushed, "This Patriot defense is just outstanding." But it isn't. That's the last-ranked defense in the league he was talking about, and while it's certainly better than the numbers show, it's not an elite unit and probably won't look that good again for the rest of the season. The Patriots face a serious challenge next week on the road against Chicago.

2. Atlanta Falcons [1] — Is this the best Falcons team in history? In 1998, Atlanta finished 14-2 and reached the Super Bowl, but that has always been perceived as something of a fluke team, weaker than the 15-1 Minnesota squad it upset in the NFC Championship Game and without staying power. This year's Falcons have won six in a row and met every challenge, proving they can beat a good team on the road. Since the bye, Atlanta is 5-0 against opponents with a combined record of 36-24 (.600), every opponent at or above .500. Brent Grimes, who made the game-clinching interception, was credited with 6 passes defensed against Tampa Bay, one of the highest single-game marks I've ever seen. Grimes is second in the NFL, with 21 on the season.

3. Green Bay Packers [2] — Why are so few people discussing Aaron Rodgers as a serious MVP candidate? He's among the NFL's top five in passing yards, passing TDs, TD/INT differential, and passer rating. The only other player in the top five of all those categories is Philip Rivers. Rodgers is also one of the best running QBs in the league, with 284 yards, 4 TDs, and a 5.4 average. Yeah, he's backed up by a good defense. He has no running game, his offensive line is just okay, and he's played a tough schedule, but Rodgers is making household names out of James Jones and Jordy Nelson.

4. Philadelphia Eagles [5] — Now the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging over 400 yards a game. Since the bye, Philadelphia has scored 26, 59, 27, 26, and 34 points, an average of 34.4 per game. Twice this season I've singled out Asante Samuel (who missed his second game in a row) and Trent Cole as the two standouts on the Philadelphia defense. When I did my Pro Bowl voting last week, I realized I keep forgetting to mention strong safety Quintin Mikell. He doesn't post gaudy INT stats like Samuel, and he's not a sack demon like Cole, but he's always around the ball. Against Houston, Mikell led the Eagles with 7 solo tackles and 2 passes defensed.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers [8] — A big win against a good team, but not a great game for the Steelers. They were held to 15 points or less for the fourth time this season, unable to run effectively (2.3 yds/att) and inconsistent passing the ball (29% third down conversions). Bryant McFadden was repeatedly victimized, and against teams with better pass protection than Baltimore, the Steelers could be vulnerable in the secondary. The injury-ravaged offensive line was a disaster in the second half, barely able even to slow down Terrell Suggs, much less stop him. Heath Miller also left the game, with a concussion that looked serious enough to keep him out next week, and Ben Roethlisberger played most of the game with a gruesome broken nose, plus punter Daniel Sepulveda will miss the rest of the season.

6. Baltimore Ravens [4] — Outplayed and outcoached on Sunday night. Pittsburgh's defensive line dictated throughout the game. The Ravens couldn't run, and they couldn't protect Flacco, who was sacked 4 times and hit 4 more. The defense played well, did its job, but Baltimore hemorrhaged timeouts in the second half, and committed several key penalties. In the first quarter, a penalty on a fake punt led John Harbaugh to visibly use a very naughty word at least twice, though he seemed more sad than angry. Equally painful penalties turned bad situations for the Steeler offense into first downs, a nullified sack on 3rd-and-3 and offsides on 4th-and-1. You can't make mistakes like that against good teams.

7. New Orleans Saints [7] — The current records of New Orleans' 2010 opponents: 1-11, 1-11, 2-10, 3-9, 4-8, 4-8, 5-7, 5-7, 6-6, 7-5, 9-3, 10-2. The Saints are 9-3, they've won five in a row, and they're in the top 10 in both offense and defense. They're a good team. But when you've only faced three opponents with winning records, you're supposed to be 9-3. That's called beating the teams you're supposed to. It makes you nervous when they need a last-minute comeback to avoid breaking the Bengals' eight-game losing streak. New Orleans was 1/8 on third downs this weekend and committed 11 penalties for 100 yards. Maybe it was just one of those games, but if the Saints play that way the rest of the season, they're going to finish 10-6, and they could miss the playoffs.

8. Chicago Bears [10] — Since the bye, Chicago is 5-0. Over that stretch, Jay Cutler has 10 TDs, 3 INTs, and a 104.3 passer rating. That's against opponents who are 23-37 (.383). The remaining opponents are 32-16 (.667). If the Bears can split those last four games, they'll finish 11-5 and make the playoffs. If they drop more than that, they still might get in, but it will be obvious that they aren't serious Super Bowl contenders.

9. San Diego Chargers [6] — Each of the last two seasons, I've counted them out of the playoffs before they rebounded to win the division. Things look grim, certainly, but it's not over. The remaining schedule is not imposing (.354), so San Diego could run the table and end up 10-6. If that happens, and the Chiefs lose one of their other three games, San Diego wins the AFC West. If Kansas City goes 3-1 down the stretch or the Chargers lose again, however, it's probably over. They're two games behind the Ravens, one behind Jacksonville, and tied with the Raiders and Colts.

10. New York Giants [12] — Three of the last four games are on the road, but the most important, against the Eagles, is at home. New York's defensive line dominated Washington's blockers throughout the game on Sunday, and the Giants forced a season-high 6 turnovers. It probably wasn't quite as dominant a defensive performance as the Week 4 massacre of Chicago, but it was pretty close. Jason Pierre-Paul reminds me of Justin Tuck in 2007.

11. Kansas City Chiefs [14] — This is incredible: it is totally plausible that Kansas City could complete the season without facing anyone who ends up with a winning record. Let's do this like we did with the Saints: 2-10, 3-9, 3-9, 3-9, 4-8, 5-7, 5-7, 6-6, 6-6, 6-6, 6-6, 7-5. That's a combined record of 56-88 (.389), highlighted by the 7-5 Jacksonville Jaguars. A Week 14 win in San Diego would probably guarantee the Chiefs a playoff spot. Mathematically, not yet, but realistically, yeah.

12. New York Jets [9] — They beat the Patriots in Week 2. Since then, what's the best game they've played? When, in the last month, have they really looked like a top-10 team? Mark Sanchez has been awful the last two weeks. He finished the Monday nighter with a passer rating of 27.8. In the Jets' wins, his rating is a respectable 88.4, but in the losses, 40.8. Here's his line for those games: 43-92, 494 yds, 0 TD, 5 INT. The Jets' vaunted defense got owned on Monday night, but any defense will look worse than it really is when the offense keeps turning it over.

13. Oakland Raiders [16] — I never thought I would say this about a punter, but Shane Lechler might be the most overrated player in the NFL. Dan Fouts this weekend called him better than Ray Guy. At the beginning of the fourth quarter, as the Raiders were about to punt from their own 39, Jim Nantz opined of Lechler, "He's had another stellar day." Lechler obligingly bombed the kick 61 yards, into the end zone for a touchback. In the first quarter of the Steelers/Ravens game, Pittsburgh's Daniel Sepulveda punted from the Ravens' 36, with a fair catch at the 8. Which was better, Lechler's 61-yard missile or Sepulveda's 28-yard rainbow? Give me Sepulveda's. A 41-yard net when you've got the whole field to work with? Any punter in the league can do that, dime a dozen. Pinning the opponent inside the 10? That helps your team.

14. Dallas Cowboys [21] — Lost Dez Bryant with a fractured ankle. Rookie linebacker Sean Lee, who has never started a game in the NFL, intercepted two Peyton Manning passes, one for a touchdown on the return and the other to set up a game-winning score in overtime. Tashard Choice, who should really be starting for somebody, carried 19 times for 100 yards and a touchdown. It's a mystery to me why no one has sent Dallas a pair of third-round draft picks to lock him up, but I'm equally mystified that the Cowboys feel Choice is best suited to warming their bench. He's a talented runner.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [15] — There's no such thing as a "good loss" when you're fighting for a playoff spot, but Tampa's defeat on Sunday wasn't the kind that makes anyone think you're a bad team. In fact, it's probably the kind that confirms you're a pretty good team. The Bucs intercepted Matt Ryan twice, holding him to a season-low passer rating and just 205 yards. The next three games are against teams with a combined record of 13-23. Tampa should win all of them, and probably has to in order to qualify for the postseason. No one's getting a wild card at 9-7 this season. CB Aqib Talib and C Jeff Faine will miss the remainder of the season.

16. Indianapolis Colts [11] — At this time last season, the Colts were 12-0. This year, they're 6-6. Maybe they should always play from behind. When Peyton Manning stepped onto the field, down 35-28, with 2:34 left, I never doubted that Indianapolis would tie the game. His comebacks are barely even dramatic any more; the clock never seems to be a factor. But in overtime, Reggie Wayne (who had his best game of the season) dropped a first down pass, Manning threw an interception, and the Colts lost. Teams that win the overtime coin toss are 6-10 this season. This obviously doesn't apply in domes, but it's incredible, shameful, that coaches get fired for taking the wind.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars [17] — Best record in the AFC South, worst point differential (-43). The Jags have won four of their last five games, and none of their remaining opponents are above .500. It's time to stop assuming that the Colts will win the division; the Jags have a real chance, even if Indy wins the rematch in Week 15. Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for a career-high 186 yards this week, going over 1,000 for the second time in his career.

18. Cleveland Browns [19] — Punted on their first five possessions, but made fewer mistakes than Miami. Shaun Rogers had his best game of the season, with a sack and a blocked field goal, the 14th of his career. The Browns have won four of their last six, but rumor says the team is still looking to fire Eric Mangini. That makes no sense to me. I think he's done a good job, and the club is showing improvement. The only major complaint is that Jake Delhomme is allowed to take the field. He's so much worse, so obviously worse than Seneca Wallace that I can't help wondering if race plays a role in the decision. It still amazes me that in 2010, we have a grand total of five black quarterbacks starting in the NFL.

19. Houston Texans [18] — Before the Thursday night game, NFL Network's Sterling Sharpe said of Andre Johnson that he now has "eight straight seasons of 60 catches or more. Let me tell you something: no one, not even Jerry Rice, the Hall of Famer Michael Irvin, or yours truly has ever been able to do that." Forget for a moment that Sharpe apparently regards Rice and Michael Irvin as the gold standard for receivers, and that he groups himself, who only played seven seasons in the first place, among them. Here is a list of players who have at least eight straight seasons of 60 catches or more in the NFL: Tim Brown, Cris Carter, Tony Gonzalez, Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, Michael Irvin, Andre Johnson, Derrick Mason, Keenan McCardell, Eric Moulds, Terrell Owens, Jerry Rice, Rod Smith, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne. That's 14 people besides Johnson, including two whom Sterling went out of his way to claim had not done so. The quote is word for word, including the emphasis. He shouted the words "NO ONE" — really emphasized them. I can't imagine what led him to make such a claim, but it is in every way untrue.

20. Miami Dolphins [13] — Awful game from Chad Henne, his second triple-INT performance this season and probably the worst game of his career. The Dolphins are last in the AFC in scoring, despite the continuing heroics of Dan Carpenter, who this week kicked a 60-yard field goal, making him just the eighth player in NFL history to connect from at least 60 yards. The others were Tom Dempsey (NO), Steve Cox (CLE), Morten Andersen (NO), Jason Elam (DEN), Matt Bryant (TB), Rob Bironas (TEN), and Sebastian Janikowski (OAK).

21. Minnesota Vikings [24] — So much for Adrian Peterson's sprained ankle. I realize Buffalo doesn't have the most imposing defense in the league, but after 107 yards with a 6.7 average and 3 TDs, I think All Day is in pretty good shape. The Vikings have now won consecutive games for the first time all season. The offense performed well in the absences of Steve Hutchinson and Percy Harvin, but this win was driven more by the defense, which got five takeaways and didn't allow a score until there was less than five minutes left. Minnesota is 4-2 at home, 1-5 away.

22. St. Louis Rams [22] — Two wins in a row, knocking off the Cardinals and Broncos. Next week, they play Utah State. Steven Jackson rushed for over 100 yards and Josh Brown kicked four field goals, including a 52-yarder, in the victory over Arizona. The Cardinals went 1/11 on third downs, with Fred Robbins (2 sacks) and Craig Dahl having particularly good games for the St. Louis defense. Dahl was credited with a team-leading 7 solo tackles, including 3 for a loss, 1 sack and an interception. The Rams have a moderately tough remaining schedule, and I suspect they'll finish 7-9.

23. Seattle Seahawks [28] — A long kick return, three Marshawn Lynch touchdowns, and Carolina's abysmal offense offset Matt Hasselbeck's poor day, and Seattle kept pace in the dog-eat-dog NFC West. Leon Washington, on his 84-yard punt return, was tackled at the 2-yard line by Jason Baker. How on earth does someone as fast as Leon Washington get run down by the punter? Weak. Washington also had a 3-yard kickoff return following a muff and got sacked attempting a pass. The Seahawks have a moderately tough remaining schedule, and I suspect they'll finish 7-9. If I had to bet, I'd say the Rams are a little more likely to end the season at .500 than Seattle.

24. San Francisco 49ers [20] — From Weeks 8-12, Vernon Davis totaled 126 receiving yards, with no touchdowns. This week, in one game, he had 126 receiving yards and a score, 65% of San Francisco's total receiving yardage. If you saw that coming, I want you to run my fantasy team, because this week I benched Davis and started Todd Heap, who got hurt on the first play and missed the whole game, netting me a zero while Davis exploded. The Niners have now lost as many games as they did all of last season.

25. Buffalo Bills [23] — The Bills are obviously a bad team. They're 2-10, they have the worst point differential in the AFC (-90), they can't play defense, and they lost four fumbles this weekend. They're bad. But if the Bills were in the NFC West, playing an NFC West schedule, might they win the division?

26. Washington Redskins [25] — Utterly vanquished against the Giants, looked like they'd quit by the end of the first quarter. This is probably the worst season of Donovan McNabb's career, and yet he might be the best player on this offense. Washington's offensive line is below average at every position, downright untenable wherever Stephon Heyer plays. McNabb was hit 10 times on Sunday. As many holes as this team has, offensive line has got to be the top priority in the offseason. First or second draft pick, a couple of free agents, that sort of thing. They don't need stars, just guys who can play. A standout nose tackle could do wonders for the defense.

27. Detroit Lions [27] — The Lions are 2-10. Six of those losses are by less than a touchdown, and seven of them came against teams that are 8-4 or better. Detroit is not a terrible team, but it has simply got to start winning some of these close games. Cliff Avril sacked Jay Cutler three times in Week 13.

28. Tennessee Titans [26] — Time of possession was 20:06, in a 60-minute game. The Titans have sunk to 30th in yards per game, and have been held below 20 points in each of the last four weeks. They led the NFL in scoring as recently as Week 8; now they're 16th. Chris Johnson can still meet his goal of 2,500 rushing yards if he averages 369 per game over the last month.

29. Denver Broncos [29] — The defense finally had a good week, Knowshon Moreno played the game of his life, and ... the passing game fell apart. Now running backs coach Eric Studesville replaces Josh McDaniels as HC. This is stupid. I hate firing coaches midseason, and this is the third time in the last month. McDaniels was head coach for 28 games. If someone was good enough to hire in the first place, he deserves at least three years to assemble the team he wants and prove himself. McDaniels went 11-17 in Denver. You know how Bill Belichick started out in New England? 12-16. Andy Reid in Philadelphia? 13-15. McDaniels made plenty of mistakes, but he was upfront about what he was trying to do, and 1½ years wasn't long enough for him to accomplish it.

For what it's worth, here are teams who are 11-17 or worse since McDaniels took over in Denver: Bills, Broncos, Browns, Bucs, Lions, Panthers, Raiders, Rams, Seahawks, and Washington. For being the 10th-worst team, he gets a pink slip after a season and a half? I don't get it. Is this coach-chasing, an owner who's convinced that Bill Cowher or Jon Gruden will come save his team, if only he can get a four-week head start? Is it the cynical notion that the coach doesn't really matter, that this is helpful from a P.R. standpoint? Plain idiocy, assuming that a coach who doesn't win right away never will?

Maybe it's just buyer's remorse, an owner who had complete trust in McDaniels for about five minutes, until he started trading away players and drawing small fines. The $50k for Spygate II represents less than 1% of what the Broncos will pay McDaniels not to coach out the remainder of his contract. The most controversial trades, Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall, now look like steals for Denver. Cutler is inconsistent, unreliable, and while he might improve in the future, right now he's a below-average QB. Getting Kyle Orton and a pair of first-round draft picks for him may be one of the greatest trades of all time. Marshall was a problem in the locker room, and he so far has been a major disappointment in Miami. It was a risky trade, but getting two second-rounders out of Marshall now looks pretty smart. Fine, they should have held on to Peyton Hillis. I just don't see how you justify this firing.

30. Cincinnati Bengals [30] — The last time Cincinnati lost nine games in a row was 1998. Bruce Coslet was the head coach, and Dick LeBeau was defensive coordinator. Neil O'Donnell was the QB, with Corey Dillon at RB and Carl Pickens the top receiver. Takeo Spikes was the team's top draft choice. The '98 Bengals went 3-13 and had the worst defense in the NFL. The team went 16-48 the next four years.

31. Arizona Cardinals [31] — Remember way back in 2009, when this was a good offensive team? This year, the Cardinals are 31st in points for and dead last in points against, with an overall deficit of 138. This is probably the worst Cardinal team since 2003, when the club went 4-12 and got outscored 452-225. That poor finish allowed them to draft Larry Fitzgerald. There's your silver lining.

32. Carolina Panthers [32] — Steve Smith this week caught his longest pass of the season, 39 yards. Baker showed some speed running down Leon Washington. Maybe they can play him across from Smith. It has to be an upgrade over Brandon LaFell and David Clowney, right?

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:04 PM | Comments (6)

The NHL's Jumbled Western Conference

Is it too early to judge NHL teams now that we're at the quarter pole of the season? For the Western Conference, the answer to that question is probably "yes." Consider this: at the start of the week, the second seed and the 12th seed were only separated by five points. One short winning streak and any ground looks like it can be made up.

It's not that way out east, where you see a gradual slope when it comes to points earned in the standings. You've got your top teams, your middle teams, your hanger-ons, and your disasters. Out west, it's the Detroit Red Wings on top and a whole jumble of teams not terribly far behind.

So why is this happening? More importantly, what can fans and hockey pundits make of all this?

The problem here is that just about every team has had surging moments that demonstrated the true potential of the roster. And they've also had bouts of inconsistency, bad defense, lack of scoring, or injuries — or perhaps all of the above.

Let's take the Columbus Blue Jackets, the team that everyone got hyped on just about a week ago. Columbus started out the season mediocre, as pretty much no one was scoring and the goaltending was awful. For a good 15 games after, the Blue Jackets' top line came alive and the goaltending duo of Steve Mason and Mathieu Garon wowed the world. And since then, it's been a struggle to both score and to keep the puck out of the net.

Or how about the Los Angeles Kings? The Kings started off like gangbusters, with Jonathan Quick tightening his grip on the starting position over fellow young goaltender Jonathan Bernier. The Kings were winning with balanced scoring, strong goaltending, and solid defense — even without much scoring from star Anze Kopitar. Then they finished the second half of November with only one win.

In fact, the only team to really avoid any bumps in the road so far is the Detroit Red Wings. Just about every other team (sans the last-place Edmonton Oilers) has flipped between looking like contenders and pretenders. Such is life in the Western Conference, when a schizophrenic team can look like world beaters on one night and like roadkill the next.

Does this mean the Western Conference as a whole is weaker than the Eastern Conference? Not necessarily; in fact, if you look at the point totals, combined with the quality of competition, the Western Conference seems to come off better. Perhaps the problem is that every team is a flawed masterpiece with immense strengths and one or two sever weaknesses. When the team plays to those strengths, the team looks like a Stanley Cup contender, and when the weaknesses are exposed, things can get ugly.

In situations like these, the weaknesses usually start to filter teams out of the playoff race by February, and then it's a dogfight between the remaining teams to squeeze into the final playoff spots. The trade deadline is one way to fill obvious holes, and sometimes a surprise rookie can step up when needed most. Also, if the past few years have shown us anything, it's that you don't have to be perfect in the playoffs to win the Stanley Cup — it's arguable that the Chicago Blackhawks had a significant number of problems exposed during each round; they just managed to overcome those through luck or right-place-at-the-right-time hot players.

It is indeed the wild, wild West, where anything can happen. Yes, even the Detroit Red Wings might hit a slump and lose their small lead over the rest of the pack. However, that also proves another theory — once you get in the playoffs, all of this gets erased and we start from zero.

For those sports fans that claim the regular season is meaningless, here's Exhibit A as to why we play the games.

Posted by Mike Chen at 11:29 AM | Comments (0)

December 6, 2010

Are the Rams on the Right Track?

In 1999, the St. Louis Rams ruled the NFL. Having defeated the Tennessee Titans in one of the most memorable Super Bowl endings, the Rams lifted the Vince Lombardi trophy. For the four years immediately after that triumph, they made the playoffs and were affectionately as "The Greatest Show on Turf," and with good reason, since they boasted the offensive trio of Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, and Isaac Bruce.

The Rams were an impressive offensive force and Mike Martz, head coach of the Rams after Dick Vermeil retired after their 1999 Super Bowl win, led the team to another Super Bowl in 2002. Martz operated a pass-heavy offense that would see the Rams go into the big game against the New England Patriots as 14-point favorites. However, the Rams were humbled by an Adam Vinatieri field goal as time expired, giving the Patriots a 20-17 victory. Even though the Rams went to the playoffs in the next two seasons, that Super Bowl could be seen as a changing of the guard. The Rams, who had been a premiere force for three years, were going to fall by the wayside, whilst the Patriots would go onto become, arguably, the best team of the 2000s.

After the departure of Martz, they hired Scott Linehan has head coach, who had previously held offensive coordinator positions. In his first season in 2006, his team finished 8-8, but it was the next year when the Rams began to go down a slippery slope. In 2007, Linehan's men stumbled to a 3-13 season.

Following that season, the Rams long-time owner Georgia Frontiere died and ownership passed onto her children, Dale "Chip" Rosenbloom and Lucia Rodriguez. The duo would announce in early 2009 that they were going to put their majority shares up for sale. Earlier this year, Shahid Khan, a Pakistani-born businessman, expressed his interest in purchasing the team, yet it would be Stan Kroenke, already a minority owner, who would become the owner. The Rams were starting to become stable in the boardroom and this season, under Steve Spagnuolo, has seen them become a better team on the field.

Spagnulo, the mastermind behind the New York Giants defense in their Super Bowl-winning year, took the helm as head coach in 2009. His inaugural season was a disaster, as the team finished 1-15. But with the first draft pick in the 2010 draft, they picked Oklahoma's Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Sam Bradford.

After a poor start to the season, which saw the Rams lose their opening two games by just 4 points to the Arizona Cardinals and then 2 points to the Oakland Raiders, the team then had two home games in a row, both of which they won, before going to Detroit and getting hammered by the Lions in their only real embarrassment this season.

By the time they reached their bye week in Week 9, they were 4-4. Since then, they have won one and lost two, leaving them with a 5-6 record, which currently puts them atop of the NFC West. Their home stadium, the Edward Jones Dome, is becoming a difficult place for road teams to visit. Of the six games played there, they have won four of them, but with only two home games remaining this season, they may have to pickup wins on the road to get a playoff berth.

One of the keys to their success is their rookie quarterback, Bradford, who has been in great form. He's passed for 2,466 yards and thrown 17 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. In the first eight games, he threw 11 TDs, a feat which equalled the previous record by a rookie, which was achieved by Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger. With an improving Danny Amendola to throw to and a reliable Steven Jackson in the backfield, the Rams offense is on the right track.

So, the question is, how far can the Rams go this season? Despite an improving offense, they still make mistakes on both sides of the ball, but they sit in the middle of the pack on most statistics. Furthermore, they are a team in transition and they don't expect to be lifting the Vince Lombardi Trophy anytime soon. Having said that, the Rams are in the worst division in the NFL. They host the 49ers in Week 16, which could be crucial, especially since they lost in overtime to them earlier in the season. Their final game is on the road at Seattle and there is a good chance that they will still be in with hunt at that point and a win there could put them in the playoffs.

Expect the Rams to finish the season 8-8 and that should be enough to make the playoffs in a waffle division. Don't, however, expect them to set the world alight in the postseason, but that's not to say they won't advance further.

Posted by Luke Broadbent at 6:51 PM | Comments (0)

Werth Not Worth It

Are you freaking kidding me?

I expect Ashton Kutcher to pop out from behind a wall and tell me I've just been "Punk'd," or something to that effect. And sadly, I'm going to be waiting a long, long time.

When the news broke that the Washington Nationals, of all teams, had signed Phillies right fielder Jayson Werth to an arguably insane 7-year, $126 million dollar deal, I had to check my calendar. I hadn't realized that April 1st was here again already.

Okay, enough with the lame analogies. But I think a deal of this sheer, idiotic magnitude is worthy of a much stronger rebuke than I could deal it.

With Adam Dunn leaving for greener pastures on Chicago's South Side, rookie phenom Stephen Strasburg sidelined for the interim, and the unreal talent of Bryce Harper paying his dues in the minors, the Nationals had two main issues to address: first, find a bat to help fill the void left when Dunn and his big blue ox defected to the AL, and second, sign a name player to help put fannies in the seats. With the addition of Werth, they've effectively solved both of these problems. But dear lord, the collective powers-that-be picked the worst day to take a vacation from common sense.

I'm not so naïve as to be ignorant of the current state of free agency in MLB and professional sports as a whole, but you don't have to be Warren Buffett to see just how ridiculous this deal looks.

Let's just start with the numbers: Werth's line from 2010 was excellent, to be sure. He batted .296, hit 27 homers, and drove in 85 runs, along with scoring 106 in a power-laden Philly lineup. He also led the league with 46 doubles and stole 13 bases, a sign that he's still got a little giddy-up left in him. Good numbers, to be sure, but he may be just as valuable with the glove: in 2009, he finished first in putouts as a RF, fifth in 2010 with 18 assists over the same period, though he should split time in right with Mike Morse and Roger Bernadina while also manning first base, Dunn's old home. On days he's manning right, the presence of Nyjer Morgan in center will only make his job easier, assuming Morgan doesn't get slapped with any suspensions.

But here's the number that makes the most difference: 7. That's how many years Werth has coming to him under this deal. Seven years at an average of $18 million per year. There's a reason that so many players end up under the wing of Scott Boras; only he could negotiate such an obscene deal.

With even a basic understanding of professional sports contracts, one can readily see the biggest issue with this deal. Even leaving aside the fact that, because of this signing, players who produce even slightly greater numbers than Werth will demand (and receive) significantly greater contracts than this, the issue is not so much money as it is time. The big thing is time, as Werth is four years away from age 35. Werth is already 31, and while not yet aged in terms of his sport, he's ever-so-close to that point in his career at which he can no longer be expected to produce like he has the past three years.

In short, he ain't getting any younger. And while he's been a reliable power source in recent times, he's been reliable in a lineup full to the top with sluggers, a luxury he will no longer enjoy in the Washington lineup. And with all due respect to Zimmerman, Willingham, and company, none of you are anywhere near Ryan Howard when it comes to clearing the seats. But then, who is?

As far as having any help driving in runs is concerned, Ryan Zimmerman is the only truly consistent threat in this otherwise anemic batting order. Ian Desmond has shown promise in the power department, but he won't ever be relied upon as a power source. Josh Willingham, also 31, struggled at the plate for most of the season and may have seen his best days already. The aforementioned Bryce Harper is still about three or four years away, assuming the Nats front office doesn't go completely stupid and throw him in the fire next year, so he's no help. By the time he does arrive, Werth will be well into his mid-30s and likely on the way out.

Moving to first base will help save Werth's knees, but it's a position which he hasn't played since 2007, and bouncing between positions has been known to have a not-so-positive effect on batting averages.

So basically, what we're left with is a player who, while a solid hitter and at times an excellent fielder, is signed until he's 38 on a team which can't possibly hope to contend in the next three years with their current lineup, will be playing a somewhat unfamiliar position for the bulk of the season, and hitting in a batting order where he's a prime candidate to be pitched around. He already strikes out a ton (300+ since 2009), and he's going to have to step into another zip code to hit some of the garbage pitchers will throw his way this year.

That's what you're getting, Washington. That's all, nothing more: an average of $18 million per for a 31-year-old hitter who has never been expected to carry a team. Seems like that money would have been better spent on something more sensible, like an economics course.

Posted by Clinton Riddle at 12:53 PM | Comments (0)

December 4, 2010

Cinderella in 2010: December Edition

Last year, it was Northern Iowa and Cornell who were teams that no one knew about, much less cared about. They weren't supposed to be part of the national title picture, yet 12-seeded Cornell won two tournament games (the first March Madness wins in school history), and Northern Iowa knocked off top-seeded and championship front-runner Kansas. While it was a year filled with Cinderella stories, no two teams shocked people more than those two.

This year may be young, but some teams are starting to show their true colors already. Who can shock the nation-wide audience like Northern Iowa and Cornell did last year?

Let's take a look at the teams:

Virginia Military Institute Keydets

The Keydets are averaging 99.4 points per game, including a 151-92 win in their last game. You can focus on their lack of defense if you want, but bad teams don't score 151 points in 40 minutes. Their 66-point first half looked boring compared to their 85-point second half.

Last year's VMI squad scored a lot of points, too, but not as many, and they weren't finding ways to win. This year's version of the team is a different beast, and in the Big South Conference, it's hard to imagine anyone standing in their way as they seek a tournament bid.

Not since 1976, when the team reached the Elite 8, have VMI fans had as much reason for optimism as they do this year. They're not top-25 material, and they may not be all year long. But nobody wants to play a school that can put up 151 points, and they may just pull an upset (or two) in March.

Wichita State Shockers

It would say something about the Missouri Valley Conference if they could have teams upset the nation's elite two years in a row, and it just might happen. As good as last year's Northern Iowa team was, this team has a chance to be even better. The MVC is better than last year, so the Shockers might not enter the tournament with a shining record, but they've already been fairly impressive this year.

They nearly beat Connecticut early this year, and they beat a pretty solid Virginia team on a neutral court. They'll have a chance to prove themselves again on Saturday, when they go on the road to face 19th-ranked San Diego State. I think they can, and will, win that game. If they do, they should find themselves in the top 25, and they might just stay there for a while.

Their formula is largely the same as other mid-major schools. Play smart, disciplined ball, and seize opportunities when they arise. What separates them is that they have some players talented enough to be playing for the elite teams they'll need to beat come tournament time.

Vanderbilt Commodores

It may not be entirely accurate to call an SEC school a Cinderella team, but when nobody expects a team to finish at the top of their conference, and they've won four tournament games in the last decade (and none since 2007), the shoe might just fit, regardless of what conference the team is from.

The Commodores have taken care of business against the weaker teams they've played, and they have an impressive win on the road against North Carolina. Their lone misstep so far was a 3-point loss on the road against a solid West Virginia team.

Their good year last year was spoiled by Murray State, when the Racers pulled of a shocking 66-65 upset in the first round of the NCAA tournament. This year, the team is motivated to make people forget that game, and they might just succeed in doing so. If they make it through their brutal conference schedule, watch out, because they may just be the team winning against a higher seed in March this time around.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 1:33 PM | Comments (0)

December 2, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 13

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Houston @ Philadelphia (-9)

Praise you, Roger Goodell. Thank "Good"-ness the NFL only fined, and didn't suspend, Houston's Andre Johnson, because Thursday night in Philadelphia would be a perfect time for the public address system to blare the Rocky theme. Johnson and Titans defensive back Cortland Finnegan were fined $25,000 each for fighting in Houston's 20-0 win over Tennessee last week.

"I stand by my decision to give Andre the game ball," Gary Kubiak said. "I'm in his corner, and I second his decision. Finnegan tossed in the towel; I tossed in the game ball. Andre was totally justified in his actions. Heck, you saw the three haymakers he landed — he's clearly 'right-handed.' In Finnegan's defense, of which there wasn't much, he's known as the type of cornerback who challenges teams to throw his way. Well, he got his wish, because Andre 'gave him the business.'"

The Eagles look to bounce back after losing in Chicago 31-26 last week, as the Eagles defense, minus Asante Samuel, surrendered four Jay Cutler touchdown passes. They'll have to stop a potent Texans offense, led by Johnson, Matt Schaub, and Arian Foster.

"Johnson's already known as the best player at his position," said Andy Reid. "After the brawl, he can now join Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski as the best at yet another position — 'ass' kicker."

The Texans looked good in their defeat of the Titans, but defending Rusty Smith is one thing. Defending Michael Vick is another. That's like defending present-day Randy Moss, as opposed to defending Randy Moss, circa 1998.

Vick rushes for 2 scores, and Samuel gets under Johnson's skin with his special brand of "bump and run" coverage, in which he jams Johnson, then hightails it away before Johnson can rip his helmet off.

Philadelphia wins, 30-27.

New Orleans @ Cincinnati (+7)

The Saints have won four straight after Thanksgiving's 30-27 win in Dallas, a win made possible when Malcolm Jenkins stripped Roy Williams of the ball as Williams approached the end zone after a long catch and run. The turnover led to Drew Brees' touchdown pass to Lance Moore, and the Saints held on for the win.

"We pride ourselves on taking the ball by force," said defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. "We've got a history of it, therefore 'the wrest is history.' And it doesn't happen by accident. Everyone is familiar with the blocking sled as a common piece of practice equipment. Here in the Big Easy, we've made the 'Stripper Pole' famous as a teaching tool."

The Bengals have now lost eight in a row, by far the league's longest losing streak, and have been plagued by inconsistency on both sides of the ball. It's been a precipitous fall by the team that dominated the AFC North last year, sweeping all six division games.

"There'll be no 'sweep' this year," said Chad Ochocinco, "although there are rumors of other forms of 'house cleaning.' Now, as a Twitter-fiend, even I'm stunned at Steve Johnson's communication with God via a Tweet. I guess that's what you call 'heaven sent.' Johnson has obviously taken prayer to a new, modern-day, application. What's he reading? The 'Nu' Testament? Heck, what's Steve gonna do when he meets his maker? Chest bump Him?"

This game should go like most Bengals games. They'll start off okay, with maybe a three-and-out stop on the Saints first possession, and they'll probably post a field goal to take a quick lead. That's when the Bengals coaching, leadership, and playmaking skills usually kick in. It's all Saints day after that.

Brees throws for 256 yards and 3 scores, and Chris Ivory rushes for a score to salt away the victory, then celebrates to his new theme song, Fleetwood Mac's "Tusk."

New Orleans wins, 27-17.

Cleveland @ Miami (-4½)

The Dolphins won their fifth road game of the year, beating the Raiders 33-17 in Oakland last week to improve their record to 6-5, three games behind the Jets and Patriots in the AFC East. Unfortunately, the 'Fins now have to head home to Sun Life Stadium, where they are 1-4 this year, to face the 4-7 Browns.

"We're like the trusty vacuum cleaner you grew up with," Tony Sparano said. "We suck at home. But we don't have 'problems at home' like the Miami Heat, in that my players don't whine about me, and I can yell at my players and not expect any guff. And incidental contact between a coach and player is not news here. Heck, my quarterbacks are so fragile, if I grazed shoulders with one of my team leaders, then I'd have another QB with a dislocated shoulder."

Jake Delhomme threw for 245 yards, but tossed 2 interceptions, in the Browns' narrow 24-23 win over Delhomme's former team, the Panthers, last week. Delhomme's final interception was returned 37 yards for a touchdown by Captain Munnerlyn, and John Kasay's field goal gave the Panthers the lead before Phil Dawson's 41-yard field goal won it for the Browns.

"It's too bad Jake didn't throw the game-winning touchdown pass," Eric Mangini said. "Then, he could have said, with no irony in his voice, 'I just cost the Panthers the game.'

But it was a costly win. No, we didn't lose an important player to injury. We're paying Delhomme $7 million a year, and that's the first win in which he's started. Thus, that win cost us $7 million. If we could have gone 16-0, I'd be able to say, in good conscious, 'we got our money's worth.'"

Colt McCoy is still nursing a high ankle sprain, so Delhomme will start again, which should greatly hasten McCoy's recovery time. Heck, he's already gone from 'doubtful' to 'probable ... to enter the game in the third quarter after Delhomme's third interception.'

Miami defensive coordinator Mike Nolan orders the 'Fins to stack the line of scrimmage and stop Peyton Hillis, the other white Peyton, who's on pace to make Josh McDaniels look even more stupid for trading him. With Hillis controlled, Delhomme is forced to beat Miami, but has more success beating Cleveland.

Miami wins, 30-19.

Washington @ NY Giants (-7½)

The Giants were the only NFC East team to win last week, beating the Jaguars 24-20 to move back into a tie with the Eagles, losers to Chicago, at 7-4. New York played a turnover-free game, which surely thrilled Tom Coughlin, and now host the Redskins, who, at 5-6, are still in the division race.

"Just one month ago," Tom Coughlin said, "we were being hailed as the NFC's best team. Just the other day, I was giving my team hell at halftime. There's 'super', and then there's 'stupor.' You know you've given your team a good chewing out when they respond, and you need a toothpick afterwards."

Donovan McNabb and the Redskins realize a loss would, in all likelihood, end their playoff chances. A loss would leave them with a 5-7 record and on the outside looking in for a playoff season in which a 10-6 record might not be good enough.

"There's definitely a sense of urgency here," McNabb said. "It's like our entire season has come down to a two-minute drill, and I have to navigate this team through five remaining games and engineer a victory in each. That's asking a lot, but so is a $78 million contract. I bet a portion of that could buy a pretty decent running game."

Coughlin wastes no time, and gives his players a good reaming before the game. The Giants come out blazing, sacking McNabb 3 times in the Redskins' first three possessions. Eli Manning throws 2 touchdown passes, and Coughlin works up to a smile, which he quickly pushes away, as the Giants win, 27-13.

Jacksonville @ Tennessee (-3)

The Titans' season continues to spiral downward, as a 20-0 loss in Houston left Tennessee at 5-6 and in danger of a colossal team-wide meltdown. The signing of Randy Moss has paid few if any dividends, Jeff Fisher and owner Bud Adams can't agree on the fate of Vince Young, and Cortland Finnegan was fined $25,000 for fighting Andre Johnson last week.

"On the plus side," Jeff Fisher said, "I can honestly say that Moss is the least of my worries. Besides, he's great to have around in a time of crisis. He has a great deal of experience in that area. I realize communication hasn't been one of our strong points. Now, if Bud Adams wants to sit down and talk things over, I'll gladly attend a meeting he's not invited to.

As for Finnegan, after taking the long arm of Johnson, he got the short end of the stick. I have no problem with Finnegan's fine, but to penalize Johnson the same amount is ludicrous. Finnegan didn't even throw a punch. He did, however, score points in the next vote for the NFL's dirtiest player. Cortland's the guy you 'love to hate' if he's on the other team. If he's on your side, you 'hate to love' him."

The Jags lost a winnable game in the New Meadowlands, falling 24-20 to the Giants, despite racking up 207 yards on the ground. A win would have given Jacksonville the lead in the AFC South, due to Indy's loss to the Chargers last Sunday night.

"I hear it's either Rusty Smith or Kerry Collins at quarterback for the Titans," said Jack Del Rio. "So we don't know what we'll get. Jeff Fisher says the same thing every week, and he knows who's starting. I know the Titans have dealt with a lot of controversy, but I know Fisher, and he'll have his team prepared. Hopefully, they will be prepared for the worst."

Collins gets the start, and Moss makes his first touchdown catch as a Titan. Chris Johnson, after rushing for "V" yards against the Titans, re-examines his goals for the season, and vows to rush for "K" yards instead of 2.5 "K." Needing only 27 yards to reach that milestone, he does so easily, and adds 88 more, plus a touchdown.

Tennessee wins, 27-21.

Chicago @ Detroit (+3)

Jay Cutler, in maybe his best game as a Bear, passed for 4 touchdowns, with no interceptions, to lead Chicago to a 31-26 win over the Eagles, delighting a raucous Soldier Field crowd, and Cutler likely replaced Rex Grossman in the hearts of many Bears' fans. It was the Bears' eighth win of the season, but only their third over a team with a winning record.

"Beating teams with winning records is overrated," Cutler said. "That's why God created the NFC West, where a losing record is winning the division. And if He, in fact, didn't create the NFC West, I'm sure He'll Tweet me and let me know.

But I think Mike Martz and I are finally on the same wavelength. Together, we make a perfect pair. A self-proclaimed genius needs a thick-skulled protégé, and we both fit the bill. Now, this Chicago team has faced its share of adversity and overcome it. I assume that's why many people are saying 'it's all downhill from here.'"

The Lions had their own "toast of the town" in their 45-24 Thanksgiving loss to the Patriots, defensive back Alphonso Smith, who was repeatedly burned by Patriots receivers.

"I'd like to apologize," Smith said, "to all Thanksgiving turkeys for outshining them on their special day and becoming the biggest turkey of them all. Those turkeys shouldn't complain, though, because they only got burned once."

They call this a "trap game." I'm not sure who "they" is, but "they" should know that the Lions have their traps set, and they're loaded for "Bear."

Calvin Johnson catches 8 passes for 135 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the Lions defense steps up, forcing 2 Cutler turnovers.

Detroit wins, 22-20.

Buffalo @ Minnesota (-6½)

The Leslie Frazier era in Minnesota got off to a mildly impressive start, as the Vikings held on for a gutsy 17-13 win over the Redskins in Washington. After the game, Brett Favre presented Frazier with the game ball, and his address in Mississippi, just in case Frazier needs to make a house call come July.

"If you watched the game," Favre said, "you probably saw my 10-yard scramble on 3rd-and-8 that helped preserve our win. Gosh, if Frazier would have been our coach last year, maybe I would have made the same play against the Saints in the NFC Championship Game.

"Now, with Leslie, the lines of communication are wide-open, and I love playing for a coach with a female's name. That's bitchin'. I got rid of one of my problems, Brad Childress, but the Jenn Sterger situation lingers. I sent one packing, and I sent the other a 'package.' I expect a ruling any day now from the NFL for my 'text-ile dysfunction.'"

The Bills lost their third overtime game of the season, falling 16-13 to the Steelers. Wide receiver Steve Johnson dropped what would have been the game-winning 40-yard touchdown pass from Ryan Fitzpatrick, and the Steelers won on their following possession.

"I've heard of '40 acres and a mule,'" Chan Gailey said, "but this must be a case of '40 yards and a goat.' Now, you've probably heard that Johnson blamed God for his mistake on his Twitter account. I guess he wasn't kidding when he said he had 'no one to blame but Himself.' Suddenly, Vince Young's apology to Jeff Fisher via Twitter doesn't seem so impersonal, or stupid."

Minnesota wins, 26-23.

Denver @ Kansas City (-7)

Since smashing the Chiefs in Denver on November 14th, the Broncos have lost two straight and surrendered 71 points in those two defeats. Now Denver faces a hot Chiefs team, which has won two in a row after the loss to the Broncos, and Kansas City is averaging 36 points in those two games.

"Not only do the Broncos have the NFL to pay," Todd Haley said, "they also have 'hell' to pay. We haven't forgotten what they did to us three weeks ago. Unlike the NFL, we plan to 'come down hard' on the Broncos. We're more than prepared. We've had a great week of practice, and just in case the Broncos are filming, I've yelled 'Action!' at the beginning of each practice."

Josh McDaniels' tenure in Denver may be waning, as an underperforming team and some questionable trades have him on the hot seat. In addition, McDaniels and the Broncos were fined a combined $100,000 for secretly taping part of a 49ers practice in London, an infraction McDaniels didn't immediately report.

"Alfred E. Neumann may have said 'What, me worry?'" McDaniels said. "My mantra is 'What, me hurry?'"

What would a coaching move in Denver be called? 'Chump change,' of course. And my personal $50,000 fine is no 'chump change.' What's the sequel to our videotape of the 49ers? It's called Things to Do in Denver When You're (in the) Red.

Of course, my fate as coach may be the only excitement left in Denver for the year. The NBA's Nuggets may have a ''Melo-drama' on their hands; we've got simply a melodrama."

This is a game Haley will not let the Chiefs lose. Not if pride has anything to do with it. Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones combine for 209 yards rushing, and Dwayne Bowe catches a touchdown pass for the eighth consecutive game, then treats his teammates to some exotic imports from the Far East.

Kansas City wins, 41-19. Haley graciously extends his hand to McDaniels afterwards and shouts "That's a wrap!" On Monday, Denver's Pat Bowlen says "Cut!"

San Francisco @ Green Bay (-8)

The Packers suffered a heartbreaking 20-17 loss in Atlanta, knocking Green Bay out of a tie for first in the NFC North. Now the Packers turn their attention to the 49ers.

"Are we still in position to win the North?" Aaron Rodgers said. "Of course we are. The Bears still have to come to Green Bay, plus they have remaining home games against the Jets and Patriots. Do we want to win the division? Maybe. Sure, it would guarantee a playoff spot, but there's something to be said for taking the NFC's sixth seed. What sounds better? A home game against, say, the Eagles or Giants? Or a road game against the Seahawks or Rams? I think the answer is clear. Our manifest destiny tells me to 'Go West, young man.'"

The 49ers whipped the Cardinals 27-6 last Monday night, improving to 4-7, one game behind the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West.

"Boy, did we really need a win," Mike Singletary said. "We came ready to play, and so did the Cardinals, or at least Derek Anderson did. That kid really knows how to 'yuck' it up.

Our win came at an opportune time. Seattle lost and St. Louis won, thus allowing us to be a game out of the division lead. So, I guess timing is everything. I should know. As a coach, I've had three job-saving wins already this year."

Aaron Rodgers throws for 3 touchdowns, and Clay Matthews sacks Troy Smith twice, and forces 1 fumble, then ends a drunken celebration in a downtown Green Bay hair salon, where he gets a perm.

Green Bay wins, 30-20.

Oakland @ San Diego (-13)

The Chargers stayed hot on the tails of the Chiefs in the AFC West race, knocking out the Colts and Peyton Manning 36-14 to remain one game behind Kansas City. San Diego used a bruising running game, rushing for 129 yards, and defense, with 2 interceptions returned for touchdowns, to go home with their fourth straight win.

"'Martyball' is back," said Philip Rivers. "You're welcome, Dan Marino."

"Now, we may have to make our stretch run without Vincent Jackson. Vincent strained his calf just three plays in to the Indy game, and we may be without him for two more weeks. Apparently, 'without him' is a lot like being 'with him.' Of course, we still have to pay him, and general manager A.J. Smith will make those checks payable to 'Vincent Price.'"

The Raiders have dropped two straight after pulling to within one game of the AFC West lead after beating the Chiefs three weeks ago. Now Oakland is two games behind the Chiefs, with a date against the red hot Chargers in San Diego.

"Bruce Gradkowski has a separated shoulder," said Tom Cable, "so Jason Campbell will be our starter, likely for the rest of the year. As Auburn quarterbacks go, he's no Cam Newton, although he has accepted lots of money to play football. Who knows? Newton could be a Raider one day, should Al Davis fall in love with another Southeastern Conference quarterback. What is it about SEC quarterbacks and the Raiders? Are SEC QB's overrated, or is our scout department overrated?"

Chargers win, 30-21.

Dallas @ Indianapolis (-5)

What's wrong with the Colts? Indy has dropped two straight, and Peyton Manning has thrown 7 interceptions in the two losses. What's more, he's been outplayed in consecutive games by Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, the two quarterbacks often mentioned in the same breath with Manning as the NFL's best.

"In that case," Manning said, "I'll take several breaths before I mention the name 'Jon Kitna.' 'Jon' Kitna? I'll not only ask 'Who the 'H' is John Kitna?' But also, 'Where's the 'H' in 'Jon,' Kitna?

"As for my recent play, I don't make excuses, just adjustments, and commercials. I could take the easy way out and blame God for my problems, but I choose not to.Trust me, I know the mistakes I've made without viewing the film. But I will view the film, all videotaped legally, of course.

Now, did you hear 'boos' Sunday night inside Lucas Oil Stadium? You sure did. Those were obviously piped in by the Chargers."

The Cowboys lost 30-27 on Thanksgiving to the Saints, and at 3-8 can only have an impact on the playoffs as a spoiler.

"Upon taking over as head coach," Jason Garrett said, "the first thing I told my guys was to strive to 'be somebody.' Well, if that 'somebody' is 'spoiler,' then we'll be the best spoilers we can be. We're obviously more comfortable in a supporting role, as opposed to a leading role. So, call us an Oscar favorite, because we're surely not a Super Bowl favorite."

Can the Colts turn things around? Of course they can, and what better team to do it against than the Cowboys. There's a AFC South division crown waiting for the Colts at the end of their rainbow, and a second-round playoff trip to somewhere cold.

Manning scorches the Cowboys secondary, when he has time to throw, for 290 yards and 3 touchdowns, and Adam Vinatieri kicks the game-winning field goal.

Colts win, 37-34.

St. Louis @ Arizona (+3)

The Rams are back in first in the NFC West after a 36-33 win in Denver, led by Sam Bradford's 308 yards and 3 touchdowns. St. Louis is tied with Seattle for the division lead at 5-6, with the 4-7 Cardinals waiting in the wings.

"I've always been intrigued," Bradford said, "by the Tim Tebow phenomenon. The stands at Invesco Field are full of Tebow's No. 15 shirts. It's really cool when the fans wearing Tebow gear do the wave; it's even cooler that they call it the 'Jersey Shore.'

"That's two games in a row in which the Broncos scored on the game's opening possession, then lost. That's the 'score first, ask questions later' philosophy, to which, answers are hard to come by."

The Cardinals are 3-8, and while by no means out of the division race in the West, a late-season run to glory seems highly unlikely. Inconsistent quarterback play has been the catalyst for Arizona's troubles, and rumors are swirling that Larry Fitzgerald may want out of Arizona.

"I'd be long gone and smelling like a rose," Fitzgerald said, "if it were as simple as Calgon taking me away. But it's not. I'm stuck with Derek, or should I say 'Dreck,' Anderson. As you know, Anderson was seen laughing on the bench with us down 24-6. Well, I've been asking him all year to 'humor me,' but this is not what I had in mind."

Rams win, 27-17.

Carolina @ Seattle (-6)

While the Seahawks are in a battle for the NFC West lead, tied with the Rams at 5-6 atop the division, the Panthers are a lowly 1-10 and in last place in the NFC South. The two squads will do battle at Qwest Field in a rematch of the 2005 NFC championship game, won 34-14 by the Seahawks.

"When I vowed at the beginning of the year to 'build a foundation,'" said John Fox, "being 'solidly at the bottom' of the division is not exactly what I had in mind."

While the Seahawks were making their Super Bowl run, Pete Carroll was at USC, handing out scholarships like they were going out of style, and sidestepping NCAA rules.

"You'll have to pardon me if I don't remember Seattle's magical Super Bowl run," Carroll said. "Most likely, I was 'looking the other way.' But we're working on our own magic here in Seattle right now. Turning a 5-6 team into a playoff qualifier? Now that's magic."

Seattle wins, 21-16.

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (+3)

The Falcons took another step towards the NFC South crown, and possibly one or more home playoff games, with a 20-17 win over the Packers last week. Atlanta now heads to Tampa to face the Bucs, who are seeking revenge for a 27-21 loss to the Falcons in Week 9.

"Raheem Morris may overestimate the Bucs," Matt Ryan said, "but we have to guard against underestimating them, especially after our big win over the Packers. You just never know what will go down in Tampa. Quite often, 'ship' happens."

The Bucs lost a hotly contested 17-10 game in Baltimore, and need a win to stay firmly in the wild card playoff picture.

"As they say in Tampa," said Morris, "revenge is a dish best served in seasonal, 70-degree weather, with a warm breeze coming off the ocean from the southwest."

It's touch and go, and the game is tied at 20 with 1:35 left in the fourth quarter when the Falcons begin a drive at their on 14. 1:33 later, Matt Bryant kicks a 46-yard field goal to win the game.

Atlanta wins, 23-20.

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (-3)

The Steelers, 16-13 overtime winners in Buffalo last week, seek revenge for Week 4's 17-14 loss at home to the Ravens. Sunday night's matchup is for the outright AFC North lead, and could have critical seeding implications down the road.

"The win in Buffalo wasn't pretty," said Ben Roethlisberger, "but we'll take it. And if Steve Johnson can blame God for his drop, then we can legitimately thank God for the win. If that's so, then the Bills got 'divinity schooled.'

Now, I've been in a walking cast all week, treating a sprained foot I suffered last week. But I plan to play on Sunday. And that's something I'm sure Brett Favre can appreciate. Not only a fellow quarterback playing injured, but also the picture of a 'little booty' that I texted him."

The Ravens tuned up for the Steelers with a tough 17-10 win over Tampa in Baltimore, buoyed by a defense that held the Bucs to 263 yards of total offense.

"As rivalries go," said Ray Lewis, "this may be the NFL's best. We hate the Steelers; they hate us. Many rivalries are built on mutual respect. Not this one. A question often asked in regards to this rivalry is the same question often asked by Roethlisberger, usually in a locked bathroom — 'where's the love?'

But the hits will be plentiful, as will trips into the red zone. When all is said and done, we'll have answers to questions such as 'who is the AFC North's best team?' And 'can Roethlisberger's foot hold up?' And 'can James Harrison afford to tackle anyone?'"

With a gimpy Roethlisberger playing behind a shaky offensive line, the Ravens should be able to pressure Big Ben. Tackling him is the hard part. The sooner they do it, the less their defensive backs have to cover.

Baltimore wins, 24-19.

NY Jets @ New England (-3½)

Monday night's winner of the Jets-Patriots clash takes sole possession of the AFC East lead, as well as the inside track to home-field advantage in the playoffs. Both teams were impressive in Thanksgiving Day victories, as the Patriots overpowered the Lions 45-24, while the Jets subdued the Bengals, 26-10.

"This may be the most-watched Monday Night Football game of all -ime," Tom Brady said. "As opposed to last week's 49ers/Cardinals game, which was the most-tolerated Monday Night Football game of all-time.

As you may know, my son with Bridget Moynahan has the initials 'J.E.T.' Not surprisingly, we call him 'Jet' for short. Now, his mother is against corporal punishment, but I have no problem spanking Jet's ass. That doesn't make me a bad father; it makes me a Patriot. Now, Rex Ryan would rather 'kick' than 'spank' ass. And he's not afraid to say it. We'll see if he can back that ass-talk up."

While the Patriots are guided by the subdued leadership of Bill Belichick, the Jets are led by the boisterous direction of Rex Ryan, who isn't against proclaiming his Jets as the NFL's best team.

"The foundations of this team are built on physical play," Ryan said. "If there was a horse that could hold me, I'd mount that steed and ride through New England myself, declaring 'The brutish are coming! The brutish are coming!

"But what really excites me is the touch of Mark Sanchez. Was that out loud? I'm comfortable enough with my manhood to say that. Was that out loud? This may be the only time I have to tell myself to shut up."

Jets win, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:32 PM | Comments (0)

MLB Logos, Past and Present (Pt. 3)

Also see: MLB Logos, Past and Present Pt. 1 and Pt. 2

Milwaukee Brewers

Ah, the halcyon days of yesteryear, when we felt free to use logos of a baseball-playing keg, compete with a tap for the nose. Or is that the tap on the back of his head? Nah, I think that's just a tumor. Anyway, for most of the last 20 years, the Brewers' logos have been boring, but I'll always remember the epiphany I felt in deconstructing their '80s logo. "Huh. It's a glove with a ball in it. Hey, that glove only has four fingers. Hey! It makes an M and a B! Mom, lookit this! Can you tell what this is supposed to be? Yeah! That's right!"

Chicago Cubs

If you scroll down to alternate logos, you'll see our little bear growing up. First, he's happy. Then he's chill. Then he's half-bear, half-owl. Then he's angry. Now, he is walking on his own. So I think this will be next.

St. Louis Cardinals

Coming up next on "E! True Hollywood Stories: The Rise and Fall of the St. Louis Cardinal." At first, he was content to just perch on a bat with his brother. But then he learned to bat. And pitch. Pretty soon, he was the Cardinals' best player. But the success went straight to his head. His behavior and sense of humor grew increasingly erratic and controversial, until he showed up at a banquet honoring Ozzie Smith in blackface. They say he was the bird who introduced Mark McGwire to steroids.

Houston Astros

I'm one of the few that liked their orange marmalade jerseys. Wanna fight about it? But the most interesting thing about the Astros is that they started off as the Houston Colt .45s. Imagine, in this day and age, when the Washington Bullets change their name to the Wizards (and as any good Pat Robertson devotee will tell you, witchcraft is far more dangerous than guns), Houston actually named themselves after a type of gun, with a logo suggesting it had recently been fired.

Cincinnati Reds

I feel like I already said all I have to say about the Reds in my Mets entry in part two: baseball head wars. So instead I will use this space to point you in the direction of the USFL's San Antonio Gunslingers logo. Get a load of that! They used it on their helmets and everything, circle and all.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Happy Pirate!
Pensive Pirate!
Angry Pirate!
Pirate during a three-day rum binge through the West Indies!
DEAD PIRATE!

San Francisco Giants

The Giants have remained pretty steady and boring over the years, both in New York and California, and sadly never feature any giant running amok and stomping buildings. I will say, however, that I like the alternate script font they have been known to use, and I wish they would make it primary.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have remained pretty steady and boring over the years, both in New York and California, and sadly never feature anyone dodging anything, like bullets or the draft, or overly restrictive municipal labor laws. I will say, however ... well, I don't have an out for this sentence.

Colorado Rockies

Is there some sort of rule you can't join the NL West unless your logos are boring and impossible to meaningfully bloviate about? Give me something to work with! Here's a logo from the old World Football League's Honolulu Hawaiians. There, I feel better.

San Diego Padres

This is more like it. First, they had the greatest cartoon-style logo in the history of sports. Second, they used brown, yellow and orange as their colors, perhaps the only sports team ever to do so. And I liked it! Why is brown such a no-no to everyone but the Cleveland Browns and Wyoming Cowboys? So what if it's the color of poop?

But like all good things, this too had to pass, and they replaced it with something even more boring than the Giants and Dodgers. My favorite part is how it says "Baseball Club" at the bottom. What is this mysterious and frightening "Padres" entity of which you speak? Why do I care about a bunch of Spanish-speaking priests ... oh! It's a BASEBALL CLUB! Okay then!

But what do I know? I'm a fan of the Cleveland Indians Baseball Organization, LLC.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The D-Backs have changed their look quite a bit for such a young team. They started off meh. Then they went for a look that reminded me very much of Disney. Finally, in 2007, they settled on a snake's penis.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 2:29 PM | Comments (1)

December 1, 2010

Sports Central 2010 Pro Bowl Picks

Pro Bowl voting has been open for over a month, but now every team has played most of its schedule, so it's finally reasonable to vote for each conference's representatives. Here's a look at my ballot, with AFC players listed first. I didn't vote for anyone who has been placed on injured reserve.

Briefly, before we begin, why does the NFL switch the order of this ballot every single season? At least this year the league lists players alphabetically by last name. If you'd like to vote along as you read, you can do so here.

Quarterback

Philip Rivers (SD), Tom Brady (NE), Peyton Manning (IND); Aaron Rodgers (GB), Matt Ryan (ATL), Drew Brees (NO)

There are four strong candidates in each conference. Kyle Orton (DEN) is having a hell of a year, leads the NFL in passing yards. I should also mention Matt Cassel (KC), who has been on fire, so I don't look like an idiot if he stays hot. In the NFC, Michael Vick (PHI) is obviously playing at a sensational level, and he certainly deserves a vote. But so do Rodgers, Ryan, and Brees. I couldn't decide which one to leave off, so I went with "hasn't murdered dogs" as a tie-breaker, but if you feel like you can't leave him off, that's understandable.

Running Back

Arian Foster (HOU), Jamaal Charles (KC), Peyton Hillis (CLE); Adrian Peterson (MIN), LeSean McCoy (PHI), Michael Turner (ATL)

Frank Gore (SF) was a lock before his injury on Monday night, so Turner sneaks onto my ballot, but the AFC is the stronger conference here. I'd go with my AFC selections from last year — Chris Johnson (TEN), Maurice Jones-Drew (JAC), and Ray Rice (BAL) — as well as Darren McFadden (OAK), over Turner, though he's having a nice season. It's not a pre-requisite, but these are well-rounded players; Turner is the only one without at least 300 receiving yards. If Peterson's ankle injury is serious, I suppose Steven Jackson (STL) or Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) would be an appropriate substitute.

I know there are a lot of appealing choices in the AFC, but you can't leave Charles off your ballot. He's second in the NFL in rushing yardage, and he's averaging 6.34 yards per carry, which would be 2nd-best all-time (min. 150 att.). The record is 6.40, by Jim Brown in 1963. If you want to sneak CJ2K or McFadden or whoever onto your ballot, you have to either (1) sacrifice Hillis, or (2) hack the NFL's website.

Wide Receiver

Brandon Lloyd (DEN), Dwayne Bowe (KC), Andre Johnson (HOU), Mike Wallace (PIT); Roddy White (ATL), Calvin Johnson (DET), Greg Jennings (GB), Marques Colston (NO)

Let's get right to the obvious omissions, Terrell Owens (CIN) and Reggie Wayne (IND). Both look pretty on paper. But Wayne is having his worst season in memory, with uncharacteristic drops and little of his usual brilliance. The numbers are still big because the Colts throw a ton and everybody else is hurt, but Wayne has not played at a high level. Owens misses my ballot for several reasons. (1) He's dropped off recently, and if that continues, I'll look foolish for taking him. (2) A lot of his numbers have come late in the game when the outcome was already decided. The defense was playing soft and his plays had minimal impact. (3) I question his value as a team player. Carson Palmer is having the worst season of his career, and you expect a great receiver to elevate his quarterback's game, not diminish it.

Fullback

Marcel Reece (OAK); Owen Schmitt (PHI)

An increasingly irrelevant position, and it's easy to fall back on guys like Tony Richardson (NYJ) or Greg Jones (JAC), but let's shake things up a little. Reece has started eight games, scored rushing and receiving touchdowns, and led the way for Darren McFadden's breakout season. Schmitt is a good receiver, and he lead blocks for the most efficient running team in the NFC.

Tight End

Antonio Gates (SD), Marcedes Lewis (JAC); Jason Witten (DAL), Chris Cooley (WAS)

Gates and Lewis lead all tight ends in scoring. Gates has been a monster when healthy, and Lewis is an impact player in the receiving game, as well as a fine blocker. Witten and Cooley are solid blockers and reliable receivers, the NFC's top two in receiving yardage. Vernon Davis (SF) hasn't been a consistent threat in the receiving game this season, and his blocking is a tad overrated. He is a good blocker, but so are Witten and Cooley.

Offensive Tackle

Matt Light (NE), Damien Woody (NYJ), Charlie Johnson (IND); Jason Peters (PHI), Donald Penn (TB), Jeff Backus (DET)

This is my least favorite position to evaluate. Honestly, we're in the midst of a real down period for offensive tackles. At the beginning of the decade, we had Jon Ogden, Willie Roaf, Walter Jones, Orlando Pace, Jon Runyan ... players of historic stature. Who right now looks like a good bet to put together a Hall of Fame career at the position? Maybe Peters, I guess. Some of the young guys might, but it's too early to make predictions on players like Penn, Branden Albert (KC), Demetrius Bell (BUF), Ryan Clady (DEN), Jake Long (MIA), and Marcus McNeill (SD). Charlie Johnson, by my evaluation, has surpassed center Jeff Saturday as the best player on the Colts' line.

Offensive Guard

Kris Dielman (SD), Ryan Lilja (KC), Brandon Moore (NYJ); Harvey Dahl (ATL), Carl Nicks (NO), Chris Snee (NYG)

This is my favorite offensive line position to evaluate. There are a lot of good guards in the league right now, so I had to leave off some guys I like, especially in the NFC. Let's get the list out of the way: Justin Blalock (ATL), Kyle Kosier (DAL), Jahri Evans (NO), Josh Sitton (GB), and Steve Hutchinson (MIN). Maybe I've just seen him on good days, but Antoine Caldwell (HOU) is one of my favorites. He's not starting, though, and he's not on the ballot. I guess Mike Brisiel (HOU) must be pretty good, to start ahead of Caldwell. Floyd Womack (CLE), the old Seattle RT we used to call Porkchop, has re-invented himself as a guard and played well.

Center

Dan Koppen (NE), Nick Hardwick (SD); Todd McClure (ATL), Jonathan Goodwin (NO)

The AFC is stacked. Nick Mangold (NYJ), whom I've chosen as an all-pro each of the last two years, is not having a great season, doesn't really seem 100%. Rookie Maurkice Pouncey (PIT) has generated a buzz, but he makes too many mistakes. Better, though, are Kyle Cook (CIN), Chris Myers (HOU), and J.D. Walton (DEN).

Defensive End

Robert Mathis (IND), Jason Babin (TEN), Mike Wright (NE); Julius Peppers (CHI), Trent Cole (PHI), Osi Umenyiora (NYG)

Aargh. There's just no fair way to do this. The AFC is loaded with 3-4 defenses, which means loads of 3-4 defensive ends, who are kind of hybrid interior/outside linemen. Two of the best defenses, teams with DEs who are Pro Bowl caliber — the Jets and Ravens — list their ends as DTs. The result is that the AFC ballot is really weak at this position. Wright, who leads New England in sacks, is the best of those who are actually listed, with Kendall Langford (MIA) and Randy Starks (MIA) also in the mix. I think Mathis is having a little bit better season than his teammate Dwight Freeney (IND). Babin leads all AFC linemen in sacks (9).

In the NFC, Peppers' impressive numbers (6 sacks, 6 pass deflections, 3 forced fumbles) don't even tell the full story; he draws penalties and double-teams and gets pressure even when he doesn't make the play. I have mixed feelings on Justin Tuck (NYG) and Umenyiora. Tuck has two 3-sack games, but just 1.5 in the other 9 games combined. Umenyiora had 8 sacks after just six games. He still has 8. But he also leads the NFL, by far, in forced fumbles (7). James Hall (STL) has 7.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles, sort of Umenyiora Lite, but his consistency and lack of supporting cast almost make him a more appealing choice. Jared Allen (MIN) is having a down year, but he's still among the best. Will Smith (NO) could be a good choice as long as he doesn't go to jail. Cullen Jenkins (GB) is a good player in Green Bay's 3-4.

Defensive Tackle

Haloti Ngata (BAL), Antonio Garay (SD), Shaun Ellis (NYJ); Ndamukong Suh (DET), B.J. Raji (GB), Sedrick Ellis (NO)

The hype for Suh is legit. He and Kyle Vanden Bosch have almost single-handedly lifted Detroit's defense, from the worst in the league to merely below-average. The AFC has incredible depth here (see above, DE). It particularly hurt to omit Vince Wilfork (NE) and Tommy Kelly (OAK), both of whom could have made it if Ngata and Ellis were listed at DE. Wilfork probably is better than Mike Wright, whom I did select as an end. Darnell Dockett (ARI) and Jay Ratliff (DAL) were the best in the league last season, but they aren't playing at the same level this season and don't deserve your vote. Barry Cofield (NYG) and Anthony Adams (CHI) are better.

Outside Linebacker

Shaun Phillips (SD), James Harrison (PIT), Terrell Suggs (BAL); Clay Matthews III (GB), Chad Greenway (MIN), Lance Briggs (CHI)

It's hard to get away from the pass rushers. Outside linebackers who can get to the quarterback are impact players, and there are a lot of them right now. Tamba Hali (KC) has 8 sacks. LaMarr Woodley (PIT) has 6.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and an interception. Cameron Wake (MIA), who leads the AFC with 10.5 sacks, is probably on most ballots. He's too inconsistent for my taste, disappears for long stretches and is so aggressive he's vulnerable to manipulation by the offense.

Briggs and Greenway are so good they deflected my obsession with pass-rushers. DeMarcus Ware (DAL) and Brian Orakpo (WAS) have big names and good reputations, but they haven't been able to lift their teams, both of which have losing records and rank near the bottom of the league in defense. It's a shame more people don't know about Greenway, who leads the NFC in tackles. He's been a monster in space for a couple of years now, and he's the best player on Minnesota's defense.

Inside Linebacker

Lawrence Timmons (PIT), Jerod Mayo (NE); Jonathan Vilma (NO), Patrick Willis (SF)

Timmons is 4th in the AFC in tackles, with 3 sacks, 2 fumble recoveries, a forced fumble, 10 passes defensed, and 2 interceptions. No one else is having a season like that. Mayo leads the NFL in tackles. He's very quick and instinctive, crucial qualities in a middle linebacker. Ray Lewis (BAL) somehow continues to be among the best ILBs around, but I don't think he stands out from Kevin Burnett (SD), David Harris (NYJ), and Stephen Tulloch (TEN).

I'm not enthusiastic about Willis, but I can't come up with an excuse not to vote for him. Something about his game just doesn't excite me. If you feel the same way, consider E.J. Henderson (MIN), James Laurinaitis (STL), Barrett Ruud (TB), or Brian Urlacher (CHI). Henderson has 3 picks, Laurinaitis has 3 sacks, I don't need to tell you about Urlacher, and Ruud has more tackles than any of them. Vilma's numbers don't jump off the page — they're fine, same ballpark as the other guys I mentioned — but he's a playmaker, the best ILB in the NFC.

Cornerback

Antonio Cromartie (NYJ), Darrelle Revis (NYJ), Antoine Cason (SD); Asante Samuel (PHI), Charles Woodson (GB), Aqib Talib (TB)

Samuel leads the league in interceptions; Talib is tied for second and gets beat less frequently than most INT hawks. Woodson is starting to play more like a safety, freelancing wherever the ball is. He has 4 forced fumbles, 2 INTs, a sack, and a lot of tackles that aren't the result of his man making a catch. Cason's Chargers lead the AFC in opponent passer rating, followed by the Jets, who now have two shutdown corners.

Nnamdi Asomugha (OAK) has missed some time, and Vontae Davis (MIA) gets beat too often. In the interest of brevity, the closest calls in the AFC: Sheldon Brown (CLE), Brandon Flowers (KC), Kelvin Hayden (IND), Ike Taylor (PIT), and a pair of rookies, Joe Haden (CLE) and Devin McCourty (NE), who are 1-2 in the conference in interception return yards. In the NFC: Terrell Thomas (NYG) leads the NFL in passes defensed, Charles Tillman (CHI) is a turnover machine, and Tramon Williams (GB) is starting to resemble a shut-down corner. DeAngelo Hall (WAS) is having his best season in years, and he's made some big plays, but he plays on the last-ranked defense in the NFL, and that's partly his fault.

Strong Safety

Troy Polamalu (PIT); Quintin Mikell (PHI)

No one else at this position particularly interests me. There are other good players in the AFC, but none of them are Polamalu. Mikell consistently gets to the ball. He's an aggressive tackler, and better in coverage than most strong safeties. LaRon Landry (WAS) is a hitter, and he's made some good plays this year, but he's just useless in coverage.

Free Safety

Michael Griffin (TEN); Earl Thomas (SEA)

Please don't vote for Ed Reed (BAL). He's missed half the season. And don't vote for Brian Dawkins (DEN), either. He's a million years old and he can't play any more. Denver has the worst defense in the league. Also, you shouldn't vote for anyone in the NFC. Everyone good is in the AFC. But Thomas has 5 picks and he gets 8 tackles every week, so since I have to pick someone, there you go. Griffin leads all AFC free safeties in tackles, and he has more passes defensed than any except Reed, who I will remind you has only played 5 games. I also like Antoine Bethea (IND), Patrick Chung (NE), Abram Elam (CLE), and Eric Weddle (SD).

Kicker

Billy Cundiff (BAL); John Kasay (CAR)

No one's really blowing the field away this year, so why not go with a solid field goal guy who is easily the best in the league on kickoffs? That's Cundiff. He's only missed three times this season, and more than half his kickoffs go for touchbacks. Otherwise, I guess I'd say Rob Bironas (TEN), who leads the league in FG%, Dan Carpenter (MIA), who leads in field goals made, or Josh Scobee (JAC), whose last-minute 59-yarder beat the Colts in Week 4. Kasay missed a potential game-winning kick in Week 12, but he hasn't failed from under 40 yards all season and he's tied for the league lead in 50+ yard FGs.

Punter

Steve Weatherford (NYJ); Chris Kluwe (MIN)

I'll save my annual punting lecture for the all-pro column, but here's what I like about Weatherford: great net average despite playing for a good team, plays in tough kicking conditions, tied for the league lead in fair catches, very good at pinning opponents deep. Kluwe has a phenomenal 23:2 ratio of punts downed inside the 20 (I20 to its friends) to touchbacks, and his punts come back an average of only 2.4 yards.

Weatherford and Kluwe are second in their respective conferences in net average. The leaders, Shane Lechler (OAK) and Mat McBriar (DAL), both play for mediocre offenses that give them the whole field to work with, and both in stadiums that offer good kicking conditions. Lechler is a line drive kicker who gets no hang time and seldom forces fair catches, so everything gets returned. McBriar can't stay out of the end zone; he has an awful 5:2 ratio of I20:TB, meaning Kluwe is almost five times better at pinning opponents deep.

Kick Returner

Marc Mariani (TEN); LaRod Stephens-Howling (ARI)

Mariani is the only player to return both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns this season. He leads the AFC in kick return yardage (1,013) and punt return average (16.6). Stephens-Howling doesn't return punts, but he leads the NFL in KR yards (1,219), with 2 KR TDs and another 2 called back by penalties. He's tied with Leon Washington (SEA) for most kickoff returns of at least 40 yards and hasn't fumbled all year. If you insist on a dual KR-PR man, go with Stefan Logan (DET) or Washington.

Special Teamer

Keyaron Fox (PIT); Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG)

Most of my favorite special teamers don't appear on the ballot. Pierre-Paul gets my vote as much for his contributions on defense as special teams. He's quite an athlete. Fox has two fumble recoveries on special teams this season.

The team I voted for most this season was the Chargers (7), followed by the Eagles, Jets, and Saints (6 each). I didn't pick anyone from the 6-5 Dolphins, but they had a lot of close calls. It wouldn't be crazy to vote for Lousaka Polite, Jake Long, Kendall Langford, Randy Starks, Cameron Wake, Yeremiah Bell, and Dan Carpenter. That's seven players. In 2009, my leading teams were the Vikings (8) and Colts (7).

Midseason Awards

Offensive Player of the Year — Arian Foster (HOU)
Defensive Player of the Year — Clay Matthews III (GB)
MVP — Philip Rivers (SD)
Coach of the Year — Todd Haley (KC)
Assistant — Mike Mularkey (ATL)
Rookie of the Year — Ndamukong Suh (DET)

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:40 PM | Comments (2)

A Baseball Negotiation, My Foot

Derek Jeter may have won a 2010 Gold Glove that he doesn't really deserve. But neither does he deserve the apparent negotiating strategy of the New York Yankees, for whom he has been the franchise — don't even think about thinking otherwise — since the day the shortstop job became his to lose. In 1996.

The skinny at this writing is that Jeter would like a five-year deal, likely to be his final Major League Baseball contract (anyone who thinks Jeter would like to finish his career in any uniform other than that of the Empire Emeritus is probably due for a controlled substances test), and that he would like about $20 million a season in that deal.

The concurrent skinny at this writing is that Jeter should probably consider himself fortunate if the Yankees offer him three years at $50 million total, perhaps with a few incentives to sweeten it, since the kind of seasons on which his Hall of Fame case will stand (anyone who thinks Jeter isn't a Hall of Famer in waiting, see the previous paragraph's parenthetic) are behind him to stay.

This is a very peculiar way to negotiate with a man about whom the Yankee brass has spoken, yet again, as the team's modern symbol. Unlike one man to whom he has been compared as a Yankee symbol — a man named Ruth — Jeter hasn't punched a ticket out of town by way of making known unrealistic wishes about becoming a Yankee manager and none too soon.

A New York Daily News poll, as I write, ran 28 percent in favor of Jeter getting the five-year/$20 million a year deal he's said to want, but a whopping 62 percent in favor of Jeter counting his blessings and taking the three and $50 million total.

And the Yankees' front office leadership has been playing the negotiations as business and strictly business. "Different negotiations from 10 years ago," went one quote wafting up from the owners' meetings last week; "a baseball player negotiation," went another.

Both have been attributed to managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner and president Randy Levine. Both could be seen as prospects for coming back to haunt both. Especially if, as some Yankee fans must fear, the Yankees let Jeter cast his line elsewhere while making no secret of their intention to become the high bidders for Cliff Lee. Assuming Lee resists both the kind of crowds in front of which he isn't in a huge hurry to pitch and the pressures of the Major League Baseball Players Association to accept the Yankee fortune on behalf of raising the salary bar for his particular baseball profession.

This wouldn't exactly be the first time that the Yankees allowed business to supersede sentiment or "tradition," actual or reputed. Once upon a time, Thurman Munson was promised he would be a) the Yankee captain for life, or for at least the length of his career; and, b) the highest paid Yankee who wasn't named Catfish Hunter. Those promises were made when Munson's teammates didn't include Reggie Jackson.

Once upon a time, Jackson himself faced the end of his Yankee contract, the one that left Thurman Munson seething for two seasons at least, and received no offer, barely even a whisper, about a new deal, while George Steinbrenner proceeded to sign Dave Winfield to 10 years and $23 million.

Once upon a time, not too long ago, in fact, general manager Brian Cashman put Bernie Williams in the deep freeze as his contract was about to expire while signing Johnny Damon — whom the Boston Red Sox had already told, for all intent and purpose, "Thanks for the memories, but..." while pursuing successor center fielders actively and without even bothering to veil the search while Damon played through injuries — to four years and $52 million.

However, once upon a time Cashman had plans to draw a line with Jorge Posada — three years and that's all, folks. The crosstown Mets were ready to offer Posada five years when the Yankees didn't figure he'd be worth more than three. Only when the Steinbrenner sons took the reins from their father, the Boss, did Posada get a fourth year tacked on.

And only when the Steinbrenner sons took those reins did Alex Rodriguez — whom Cashman was only too willing to tell, "Thanks for the memories, such as they are," when A-Rod opted out of his contract in 2007 (the infamous opt-out, scripted by his now-former agent, Scott Boras, in the middle of the Boston Red Sox's second postseason romp to the roses in three years) — get himself not a reminder not to let the door hit him where the good Lord you-know-what him, but a $275 million extension. Enough to keep A-Rod in pizza, pretty girls, and penthouses, not necessarily in that order, until he's 42, at least. Enough to keep Derek Jeter from possibly considering himself to be a Yankee for life.

Of all the criticism that could be leveled against the Yankees for the manner in which they have spent on free agents since the advent of baseball's free agency, the absolute most truthful criticism is that they've been willing to spend more on somebody else's freshly-minted free agent than on retaining one of their own. Even if they're spending $82.5 million over five years on a pitcher whose stuff still inspires awe, but whose performance still inspires managers to consider deep-sixing him on a postseason roster.

Nobody expects anyone to take pity on a man who has earned an estimated $205 million to date to play shortstop for the Yankees. But don't think for even one nanosecond that Jeter could be thrilled to see A.J. Burnett earning more than the Yankees seem willing or likely to pay him for the last contract of his career as a shortstop.

Nor can Jeter be thrilled to see the Yankees prepared to break the bank on a Cliff Lee who isn't even a lock to be fitted for his pinstripes just yet. Lee may stand to get a bank-breaking offer from the Yankees, who've made no secret of their intentions to spend big on pitching. But Lee isn't thought to be in that big a hurry to leave Texas, where his home park is a mere 40-55-minute flight from his home (about three hours or so by car) and he's found a personal comfort zone, reportedly for the first time in his career.

The Yankees are preparing to spend big for pitching only because their original plan of a homegrown rotation has blown up in their faces in phase one. Of the big four projected to become the next Yankee rotation a few years ago, only Phil Hughes has measured up, and even he had his troubles in the postseason. (Remember this: no Yankee with postseason trouble is likely to remain a Yankee for very long if he doesn't redeem himself post haste — as in, next season.)

Ian Kennedy and Ross Ohlendorf punched their tickets out of town when they proved to be little better than fifth starters by American League East standards. And the jerk-around under which Joba Chamberlain has worked since his ballyhooed-enough arrival has been so profound that you can forget whether he'll ever become a number one or number two rotation presence. Concentrate, instead, on whether the so-called Joba Rules have left him to become any kind of consistent major league pitcher in any role, period.

The Yankees have three well-respected pitching prospects advancing well enough toward Yankee Stadium. The reviews thus far are almost five-star regarding Dellin Betances's breaking balls, Andrew Brackman's cutter, and Manuel Banelos's changeup. But until they finally graduate to the parent rotation, the Yankees will probably find themselves into three established starters mulcted from elsewhere to a $200 million collective price tag over the next three seasons.

All of that and more does not pass Jeter's eyes uncontemplated. Remember: this is a player who has forged a Cooperstown career (he could retire this minute and qualify as a no-questions-asked Hall of Famer) by transcending his limits and hustling into the right place at the right time in the right games, regular and postseason.

He's been a barely-average defensive shortstop who has the knack for making plays ranging from spectacular to supernova to off the charts when the Yankees need those plays the most. He's been a solid hitter who has managed to be 83.7 wins above a replacement player in his career to date. What he's hit lifetime with men in scoring position and two outs (.305 BA; .399 OBP; .429 SLG) would put into the Hall of Fame men who hit that overall.

And he's played the game the right way from the minute he was handed the full-time shortstop job to stay. Whatever criticism he has garnered over the years has never included leaving his head in the clubhouse. Or his brains in bed.

If the Yankees' ethos boils down to asking what has a player done for them lately, the observer to whom here and now performance erases all can point to Jeter's very subpar 2010, a 2010 in which he could have been accused of showing his age at last. But if somewhere in the Yankee heart beats a muscle labeled "What has a player done for us, period?" then Jeter in 2010 was nothing much less than the Jeter of 1996-2010: the one player above all others who was vital to the Yankees' field and clubhouse cohesion, even when he couldn't hit with a hangar door, even when he couldn't field unless driven to the ball by taxi.

Jeter believes he still has baseball enough left in him. Not everybody experiences such a season as his 2010 and believes it a sign that he no longer has it. But a different Yankee management was prepared to pay Joe DiMaggio the same $100,000 for 1952 that he earned in 1951, until the Clipper himself decided, as his elder brother was once quoted as saying, to quit "because he wasn't Joe DiMaggio anymore."

Mike Schmidt eventually saw and raised DiMaggio one. The greatest all-around player of his time, the greatest third baseman ever to play major league baseball, walked away from the game (and about $2 million) early in a dismal 1989 season — despite being among the National League's RBI leaders at the time — because he realized he wasn't Mike Schmidt anymore.

"I could ask the Phillies to keep me on to add to my statistics," Schmidt said in tears when he said farewell, "but my love for the game won't let me do that."

Perhaps a true Yankee fan wishes at bottom that Jeter might decide in the end that it's wisest for him to quit because he isn't Derek Jeter anymore. Just the way one wishes Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, and Steve Carlton had retired before they weren't Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Johnny Bench, Carl Yastrzemski, or Steve Carlton anymore. It might hurt at first to leave them wanting more, but it just might be the way you want Derek Jeter to leave when he does. And there's no guarantee he'll do that if he gets the deal he wants or takes what the Yankees offer him.

But that's a decision even a true Yankee hater might reason to be one that only Jeter can make. And if he is not prepared to make it just yet, he above anyone else wearing The Stripes — with the possible exception of The Mariano — has earned the right not to make it just now.

Jeter's standing at this writing provokes a thought back to what A. Bartlett Giamatti, then a Yale professor but no less passionate a baseball fan then as when he ended up as a baseball executive himself, was moved to write when the Mets ended their contract impasse with Tom Seaver (who was asking even more for the Mets to invest seriously in team improvements, by free agency and otherwise, than he was asking for his own next contract) by making one of the most infamously lopsided trades in New York history.

On June 16, the day after Seaver was exiled to Cincinnati by way of Montreal, a sheet was hung from a railing at Shea bearing the following legend:

I WAS A

BELIEVER

BUT NOW WE'VE

LOST

SEAVER

I construe that text, and particularly its telling rhyme, to mean not that the author has lost faith in Seaver but that the author has lost faith in the Mets' ability to understand a simple, crucial fact: that among all the men who play baseball there is, very occasionally, a man of such qualities of heart and mind and body that he transcends even the great and glorious game, and that such a man is to be cherished, not sold.

— A. Bartlett Giamatti, "Tom Seaver's Farewell," Harper's, 1977; republished in A Great and Glorious Game: Baseball Writings of A. Bartlett Giamatti. (Chapel Hill, North Carolina: Algonquin Books, 1998.)

Yankee fans who don't vote in New York Daily News polls, and even a considerable enough contingent of Yankee haters for whom disdain for the organization does not translate into disdain for some of the men who play in its silks, may well come to construe Giamatti's ancient text, transposed to reference Derek Jeter, and substituting "allowed to walk" for "sold," as a text the Yankees' management is witless to comprehend.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:20 PM | Comments (0)