Over the years, the NBA has seen its fair share of historically bad draft busts. Many of these players were selected in one of the top two picks. Michael Olowokandi, Darko Milicic, and Kwame Brown all fall into that boat and were all picked within the last 15 years. But none of those players, or any before 1995, may be as colossal a bust as Greg Oden.
Last week, Oden was ruled out for the entirety of the 2010-11 season. Since being drafted No. 1 overall in the summer of 2007, Oden will have missed two whole seasons with two micro-fracture knee surgeries (one on each knee), the vast majority of one season with a fractured knee cap, and part of another with a chipped knee cap. At this point, it is reasonable to question how much Oden can actually put on his knees when he comes back, given his big frame and three knee operations in four seasons.
In total, Oden has played 82 career games, averaging 9.4 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. Accounting for advanced metrics, Oden has been an above-average rebounder (according to rebound percentage) and turnover-prone (according to turnover percentage). However, in the instances where he has been able to play, Oden has never averaged more than 24 minutes a game.
It's inevitable at this point to compare Greg Oden to Sam Bowie. After all, both were highly drafted by the Blazers and play somewhat similar positions, albeit with Bowie more of a passer and outside shooter. At this rate, Oden may have to be mentioned on his own. Through a similar point in his NBA career (four years after being drafted), Bowie had played 119 games, for 10.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. However, after his stint in Portland came to an end after the 1988-89 season, he played four seasons with the Nets, never missing more than 20 games in any season with New Jersey, averaging 12.8 ppg and 8.2 rpg in those seasons.
We don't know if Oden will ever put up that type of productivity after he comes back, because he hasn't reached that stage yet. Two bad knees don't bode well, though.
People don't consider Bowie one of the biggest draft busts ever solely based on what Bowie himself did. He's considered as such due to the fact that Blazers passed up on Michael Jordan to take the former Kentucky star. The same holds true for Oden. Kevin Durant is already one of the top five players in the league, and turned 22 less than two months ago. In time, the historical chasm between Oden and Durant could be as wide or wider than that of Bowie and Jordan.
Relativity matters when talking about things like draft busts. Strictly speaking, LaRue Martin is probably the worst player to ever be taken No. 1 overall in an NBA Draft (by the Blazers, as well), averaging just over 5 points a game in four seasons. Hall of Famer Bob McAdoo was picked second, but Durant is probable to be remembered more fondly than McAdoo after his career is over. This is also why we consider Ryan Leaf, who it is said the Colts were debating to take over Peyton Manning in the 1998 NFL Draft, the greatest football bust ever, and not a No. 1 pick like Ki-Jana Carter.
The fall of Oden is even more remarkable when taking into account all the hype surrounding the 2007 draft and his selection. Draft experts were confident that Oden was the sure thing, with Durant being the potential pick more ready to be a star in a few years. Oden was, at a minimum, supposed to evolve into the next Patrick Ewing and his ceiling was assumed to be much higher.
During the 2006-07 college season, Durant vastly outperformed Oden, putting up the most dominant freshman season in the history of the game. Yet, because Oden's Ohio State was a more loaded team with more scoring options and due to his injured right wrist, Oden was still considered the best player on the board. A 25 and 12 performance in an NCAA title game loss to Florida only served to cement that status.
Hindsight is always 20-20, but in Tuesday's game between Ohio State and Florida, Buckeye freshman big man Jared Sullinger showed off about as much offensive skill in the post in 34 minutes of action as Oden did in that whole season in college. Oden's relative lack of offensive game that season should have been a warning, and was pointed out by the few experts who thought Durant would be the better pick.
With Oden on the verge of having his career written off due to injury, Portland has bigger things to worry about, such as Brandon Roy's lingering knee issues. The Blazers are still a quality team, but if Roy, their best player, continues to miss time throughout the season, the team's eventual playoff status could be in major doubt.
November 22, 2010
xYike:
The thing you totally miss on … many of the other names here were busts because their skills turned out to be below-par or they could not handle the transition to the pros.
Oden isn’t a bust on the floor when he can get there … he’s just had poor health. Not something he or anyone can control. His production has been good while able to play.
Comparing Jordan to Durant is ludicrous … you are really reaching for content there.
November 23, 2010
Roc:
Oden was a bust, even on the floor. He was touted as a Shaq/Russel hybrid, but he was a poor man’s Mutumbo at best. His only gift was shot-blocking. As the article points out, his rebounding was mediocre and he was a turn-over and foul-commiting machine. He could hardly stay on the floor, and he got slaughtered in match-ups with many of the game’s top big men.
And why not compare Durant with MJ? When you post season averages of 30 & 8 on 48% FG at age 21, there are very few other names that you could compare that to. Durant is clearly cut from a different cloth.
November 23, 2010
Roc:
Plus look at the way Blake Griffin is currently producing. He hardly came with the hype of Greg Oden - yet his production is much more impressive.
November 29, 2010
fearghoul:
Oden is definitely the biggest bust ever. And it is laughable that people think he made a difference on the floor. Newsflash: PER is a BS metric. Oden’s crappy scoring average and average rebounding can’t make up for it. His knees have eliminated any possibility of him getting better.