Five Quick Hits
* Wow, that didn't take long. The Vikings will waive Randy Moss after just four games. What's the over/under on how long it takes the Bengals or Cowboys to sign him?
* Jon Gruden: "Guy's a great player; something's missing. I'd like to know what it is." Well said. Moss' next team will be his fifth. How can a player this talented, a future Hall of Famer, keep getting shipped out of town? Something's missing.
* This weekend, James Laurinaitis led the Rams in tackles, with a sack and an interception. He's been doing this for a year and a half now. This kid can play.
* For years, the Packers would play one home game a year in Milwaukee instead of Green Bay. That's almost unthinkable now, the way Lambeau Field's aura has gotten. In Week 9, the Bills will play a "home" game in Toronto. I'm sure Toronto has plenty of Bills fans, but I just don't think it's the same advantage the Packers got in Milwaukee, and it's certainly not the same advantage the Bills get in Buffalo. It's probably better than the homefield advantage the 49ers got in London.
* The San Francisco Giants are World Series champions. Congratulations to Edgar Rentería and the rest of the team.
***
Between FOX and NBC, I don't know how many times I heard the phrase "America's Game of the Week" yesterday. One would have been too many. That's an eight-syllable phrase, so it takes a long time to get through, plus it's presumptuous and irritating, and in FOX's case at least, it's inaccurate. The biggest problem is this: you can’t give yourself a nickname. My favorite discussion on the subject is from Sports Night (skip to the 5:27 mark and watch to about 6:18, or if you're not in a hurry, start at 4:30 or 4:55).
With no further ado, power rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank.
1. New England Patriots [4] — I'm not happy about this. The Patriots have obvious flaws, and easily could have lost a couple games they won. But the other top teams have the same kind of issues. The Giants have a turnover problem, the Titans can't keep their QB healthy, the Colts can't keep anyone healthy, the Steelers and Jets just lost, and neither they nor the Ravens have been dominant even in their wins recently. This weekend, the Vikings out-gained New England both rushing and passing, and won time of possession by more than 10 minutes. The Pats' defense made some critical stops in short-yardage situations on Sunday. Neil Paine presents compelling evidence that the Patriots aren't likely to keep this up.
2. New York Giants [5] — I hate when people crow about "parity" in the NFL, like we didn't just have the only 16-0 team in history (2007), the only 0-16 team in history (2008), and two teams at 13-0, with a shot at going undefeated if they'd really wanted to (2009). For now, though, there does seem to be unusually little difference between the best teams and the worst. Hey, remember when the Giants had the "Earth, Wind, and Fire" backfield in 2008? Ahmad Bradshaw, who in 2010 is on pace for 1,618 yards, back then was Fire, the weakest of the three.
3. Tennessee Titans [3] — Vince Young re-injured his ankle, but the bigger concern has to be Kenny Britt's hamstring. Kerry Collins has proven he's capable, and the team has confidence in him. I doubt Damian Williams or Lavelle Hawkins can step in for Britt as easily. This may sound odd about a game in which the officials called 18 penalties and threw someone out, but Bill Leavy's crew missed a number of calls on Sunday, though not noticeably favoring either team.
4. Indianapolis Colts [7] — Three wins in a row, the best current streak besides the Patriots (5) and Giants (4). A bunch of guys stepped up and had big games for the Colts on Monday night, especially on the offensive and defensive lines. Dwight Freeney had 2 sacks, and that's a great game, but he also created constant pressure and really disrupted Houston's passing game. I think Freeney is better now, at age 30, than he was at 25. This sounds crazy, but I wonder if Peyton Manning, who's 34, isn't having his best season, too. I guess he's probably not — that 2004 season was one for the ages. But there's just no question that Manning is playing better this season than he did in either of the past two, when he won league MVP (both years). His current stats, projected for 16 games: 4,992 yards, 34 TD, 5 INT, 101.4 rating. You could double the interceptions and that's still a phenomenal, MVP-type season.
5. Baltimore Ravens [6] — The Steelers and Jets have been my top two the last couple of weeks, but now they drop behind a team that has beaten both of them. The Ravens are 3-0 at home, but their biggest wins (see previous sentence) both came on the road. Ed Reed had a big game in his return from injury last week, and his performance only figures to improve as he gets back into the flow of playing.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers [1] — Were they better before Ben? During Roethlisberger's suspension, the Steelers had a better record and averaged more points per game, while allowing fewer. I wrote earlier this season that Charlie Batch has performed well when he has played in place of Roethlisberger. So has Byron Leftwich. I don't dispute that Ben is a better quarterback, but the play-calling changes when he's in there. Pittsburgh has lost two of its last four, and a controversial last-second win over Miami kept that from being three of the last four. The team plays its third straight road game in Week 9.
7. New York Jets [2] — Came into the weekend leading the league in turnover differential, but they were -3 in Week 8. Against Green Bay, the Jets had 100 more yards of offense, more first downs, much better third down percentage, and more time of possession. But they committed 6 turnovers to Green Bay's none: 1 lost fumble, 2 interceptions, and an incredible three failed fourth-down conversions. They also missed a 37-yard field goal. Here are how the Jets' drives ended on Sunday: punt, punt, failed conversion, fumble, punt, interception, punt, punt, missed field goal, interception, failed conversion, failed conversion, end of game.
8. Atlanta Falcons [8] — In the Matt Ryan Era, this has been a much better team at home (16-3) than on the road (9-11). Watch for a rollercoaster in the coming weeks: three of the next four games are at home, followed by three straight away games, then a pair of division matchups at home to close out the regular season.
9. Miami Dolphins [10] — Teams with a winning record and a turnover differential worse than -2: Dolphins (-4), Giants (-5), Saints (-5). We think of Miami as a conservative team: running, defense, limited mistakes. Miami's MVP so far might be placekicker Dan Carpenter, 3rd in the NFL with 65 points and 2nd in field goals (18). He hasn't missed from under 40 yards, and is 13/13 since the bye, including a pair of 50-yarders.
10. Green Bay Packers [13] — Banged-up defense came up big against the Jets, earning the first shutout of the 2010 season. Tight end Donald Lee so far has not proven an adequate replacement for Jermichael Finley, who was placed on injured reserve after Week 6. Finley averaged 50 yards per game. Lee is averaging 10, up to a whopping 16 since the injury. Aaron Rodgers with Finley: 258 yards/game, 89.7 passer rating. Without Finley: 233 yds/gm, 72.2 rating. The Packers lead the NFC in point differential (+40).
11. Philadelphia Eagles [11] — Third in the NFL in rushing average. Leading rusher LeSean McCoy averages 4.5 yards per carry, which is good, but not really exceptional. However, the second and third leading rushers do have great averages. Michael Vick is at 7.2, and DeSean Jackson checks in at 11.2 on 6 carries. I predict that if Vick starts the rest of the season, Philadelphia will finish in the top half of the NFL in rush attempts for the first time since 2002. That year, the Eagles were led by Duce Staley (269 att), Dorsey Levens (75), and Donovan McNabb (63). Brian Westbrook came in fourth (46).
12. Kansas City Chiefs [12] — Huge game from Jamaal Charles: 22 rushes for 177 yards and 4 receptions for 61 yards. That ties Arian Foster (Week 1) for the most yards from scrimmage in a game this season (238). Rounding out the top five: Jahvid Best (232), Kenny Britt (225), Terrell Owens (222). Charles leads the NFL in rushing average (6.47) by almost a full yard. The single-season record is 6.40, by Jim Brown in 1963 (min. 150 attempts).
13. Washington Redskins [9] — Do I have to write about this stupid benching Donovan McNabb thing? Fine, real quick: dumb idea. I don't care how bad McNabb's "cardiovascular endurance" is, the backup is Rex Grossman. This isn't Sonny Jurgensen or Steve Young sitting on the bench. Last week I wrote, "Washington should cut return man Brandon Banks. He's good for one serious mistake every game." This week he returned one kickoff for a touchdown and had another TD called back by penalty, while avoiding any obvious mistakes. Banks is the smallest player (5'7", 149 lbs) in the NFL. Other players listed at 5'7": Rock Cartwright, Stefan Logan, Darren Sproles, LaRod Stephens-Howling, Garrett Wolfe. Other players listed at under 175 lbs: Deon Butler and Dexter McCluster (170), Wolfe (171), and Drew Coleman (173). The king of small players was Buddy Young, a 5'4" stick of dynamite who played for the Colts in the '50s, and before them, the New York Yankees of the AAFC. Young was so good that (like Sproles) he earned significant playing time on offense, despite his size. He was a good runner in the AAFC (5.5 yds/att), but in the NFL he was most effective as a receiver out of the backfield, averaging 16.6 yds/rec. Young's kickoff return average (27.9) is 6th best all-time.
14. San Diego Chargers [17] — Incredibly, managed to have another punt blocked this week. Mike Scifres, whom I chose as the punter for my All-Decade Team, is having an awful year. His punts either get blocked or returned for TDs, and on Sunday he muffed a perfect snap and cost his team an extra point. Kris Brown fantasy owners curse you, Scifres, for costing them a point. In other special teams news, I love Darren Sproles, but he has got to start catching the ball on punt returns. He let a couple bounce and put his team in poor field position. I say nice things about the Chargers when they lose, and mean things when they win.
15. New Orleans Saints [19] — Finally got a big win. At the beginning of the season, we thought the Vikings and 49ers were big wins, but those teams are now a combined 4-11; we were wrong. A double-digit victory over the Steelers on a national broadcast, however, is a big win. I don't understand this team's last month. In Week 5, the Saints somehow lost to Arizona. The next week, they thrashed the 5-2 Buccaneers. In Week 7, they got embarrassed by the Browns, and now this. They lose to two bad teams and get convincing wins over the good ones. New Orleans only has three home games remaining.
16. Oakland Raiders [24] — Won three of their last four, including a victory over the Chargers and a pair of routs. They rank among the top 10 in offense and defense. The latter just ruined Seattle this week, sacking Matt Hasselbeck 8 times and holding the 'Hawks to 1/16 on third down. I don't see how they can send Jason Campbell back to the bench after the way he's played the last two weeks. You've got momentum right now, and you can't bench the hot hand. It won't matter next week, though, because they host the Chiefs, who have won in Oakland for seven years in a row.
17. Houston Texans [15] — Brian Cushing looked lost on Monday night. The 2009 Defensive Rookie of the Year, Cushing moved to middle linebacker this week to replace the injured DeMeco Ryans. Maybe he'll grow into the role, but right now it looks like the Texans have cut off their nose to spite their face. Losing Ryans was bad enough, but you can't fix the problem by neutering a great player, forcing him out of position. Don't let one injury weaken you at two positions. DE Mario Williams also was invisible for most of the game. The one defensive player who impressed me was DT Amobi Okoye. He didn't make a lot of plays, but he was double-teamed on almost every snap and he got some pressure on Manning. It wasn't a superstar performance, and I'd like to see him come out of the game a little less often, but that's a guy who can make plays and set things up for his teammates.
18. Detroit Lions [26] — This doesn't seem quite right. Last week, I wrote, "There's a good chance they'll upset Washington in Week 8." Why do they rise eight spots for something I already thought they were going to do? Maybe I'm just giving them a new look, treating them more as the 2010 Lions and less as the same team that went 2-30 the last couple of years. In the last month, they've beaten a pair of 4-4 teams, one of them in a rout. They lost by 8 to the Giants and 2 to the Packers, both on the road. Those are not bad losses. Maybe this is too high for a team that hasn't shown it can win close games with any consistency, but these Lions are no joke. Detroit leads the NFC in scoring. Calvin Johnson (9 rec, 101 yds, 3 TD) was obviously the star this weekend, but Cliff Avril, Ndamukong Suh, and Kyle Vanden Bosch had 2 sacks each in the win over Washington. The game featured 18 punts and 17 penalties.
19. Minnesota Vikings [14] — I've moved them behind the Lions. Both teams are 2-5, but the Lions have outscored their opponents (+18) and the Vikings have been outscored by their opponents (-15), against virtually equal strength of schedule, 28-24 and 28-23. The Vikings have kept it close against good opponents, but the teams Minnesota has actually beaten have a combined record of 3-11 (.214). The Vikings have now gone three straight games without a sack from their defense, for the first time in the club's 50-year history. If I'm a Minnesota fan, I'm much more concerned about the seemingly constant injury issues of Percy Harvin than those of Brett Favre. Tarvaris Jackson might actually be an upgrade at this point, but they can't afford to lose Harvin.
20. Cleveland Browns [18] — Surely there is something interesting to be said about the Browns during their bye week. Okay, got it. They have a funky schedule coming up. The next two games are at home against AFC East powerhouses (Pats, Jets). Then they play the '95 expansion teams (Jags, Panthers), followed by three straight on the road. That's cold, a three-week road swing in December. They close with a pair of divisional matchups at home (Ravens, Steelers). Predicted record: 5-11, but one they can build on. Don't fire Eric Mangini. Unless they go 2-14. Then you can fire him.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [20] — Eight teams are 5-2. The season point differentials among those eight: +51, +49, +45, +41, +36, +22, +20, -27. One of these things is not like the others! The Bucs are not a great team; they might be a good team. So far, though, they haven't beaten anyone with a winning record, and only one of their wins is by more than a field goal. After years in the wilderness, this team seems to be finding an offensive identity, but the win this weekend was really about playmaking defense, to the tune of 4 interceptions, including an Aqib Talib touchdown. Talib has 5 picks this season.
22. St. Louis Rams [21] — Without exaggeration, one of the worst offenses in the NFL. They are 29th in scoring, fourth-worst in the whole league. The defense, 6th-best, is the reason this team has four wins. Against a cupcake schedule — only one opponent over .500, the 5-2 Bucs — and with one of the best running backs in the league (Steven Jackson) they still can't find the end zone. I am just mystified by the apparent consensus that Sam Bradford should win Offensive Rookie of the Year. I mean, he doesn't have a lot to work with and he hasn't messed things up too badly, but he's 26th in passer rating. What about Jahvid Best, Mike Williams, Dez Bryant, Aaron Hernandez? Hey, why not Maurkice Pouncey, the starting center for the Steelers? Or ... this might be too crazy ... what about waiting until the season is more than halfway over to even start speculating on these things?
23. Seattle Seahawks [16] — Atrocious game in Oakland, and not just a fluke. Seattle obviously is not quite as bad as it looked in Week 8, but the team ranks 25th in passing, 27th in rushing, 28th in scoring, and 30th in total yardage. The offense blows. Since scoring a season-high 31 points in Week 1, the Seahawks have averaged just 15.3 per game, and they haven't exactly been playing the Jets every week.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars [28] — With apologies to Henry Wadsworth Longfellow...
There was a football team,
Who had a teal uniform,
Despite being in the NFL.
When it was good,
It was very good indeed,
But when it was bad, it was horrid.
25. San Francisco 49ers [30] — The NFC West is so bad that the 2-6 Niners are only 2½ games out of the division lead, which is not out of the question with 5 division games remaining. Every team in the NFC West has been outscored by its opponents this season. Troy Smith didn't light the world on fire (only 19 pass attempts), but he managed the game, and right now the team will take that. The 49ers still have an outside shot at the playoffs if they can just limit their mistakes.
26. Chicago Bears [23] — Dropped three spots during their bye week. This shouldn't happen. I had them too high, I think, and teams like Detroit and Oakland too low. After a 3-0 start, the Bears have lost three of their last four. The team has allowed 31 sacks this season. No one else has more than 23. The Bears are also one of only three teams to throw at least 12 interceptions already. The others are ranked 30th and 31st.
27. Dallas Cowboys [22] — Forgive me for being Johnny One-Note, but I don't get this at all. They just lost their starting quarterback, but they have a run-blocking line and a stable of good RBs. On Sunday, Jon Kitna dropped back to pass 53 times, and handed off 17 times. This is insanity. I wouldn't let Jason Garrett call plays for a Pop Warner team. Terry Bradshaw, who played with a broken collarbone, summed up the Tony Romo situation well: he shouldn't play. The Cowboys aren't going anywhere this season, and it's not worth risking the long-term health of a franchise quarterback to finish 5-11 instead of 4-12. What if the Cowboys get hot and somehow find themselves in the playoff race, Curt Menefee asked. "If they're hot, they don't need him," replied Bradshaw. That was before the Cowboys dropped to 1-6. They're not getting hot; they're not making the playoffs.
28. Cincinnati Bengals [27] — Everyone has penciled in LaDainian Tomlinson for Comeback Player of the Year, and that's hard to argue with, but how about Terrell Owens? He's in the top 10 in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. The Bengals have lost four in a row, but Owens has been a pleasant surprise on the field, having his best season in years. In 2009, he finished with 829 yards and 5 TDs. This season, he already has 629 yards and 5 TDs.
29. Denver Broncos [25] — Statistically a top-10 offense, but they're 22nd in scoring. This is not just about turnover differential (-4) or special teams (Matt Prater missed an extra point on Sunday). The Broncos rank 22nd in third down percentage, which is incredibly low for a team that passes as well as they have. But they can't run the ball, so they end up with lots of 3rd-and-long, and they can't reliably convert short yardage when they do get it. Tim Tebow has a role to play in this offense, but it is not replacing Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback. Orton and Brandon Lloyd are all this offense has.
30. Arizona Cardinals [31] — As I was trying to figure out whether or not they should rank ahead of Denver, I pondered which was the most embarrassing loss of the season so far. Was it the 41-10 beatdown the Chargers laid on Arizona, or the 59-15 whipping Oakland administered to the Broncos? Tough call.
31. Carolina Panthers [29] — Average 12.1 points per game, worst in the NFL. Second-worst is the Browns' 16.9. The second-worst offense is still 40% better than Carolina's. What else do you need to know?
32. Buffalo Bills [32] — Consecutive three-point losses to good teams, so they may be on the way up. I am deeply skeptical of tackle statistics, but Paul Posluszny apparently was in on 18 tackles against Kansas City, 11 solo and 7 assists. Kyle Williams sacked Matt Cassel twice, making him the team leader with 3. In their battle to avoid 0-16, the Bills have three winnable games coming up. If they still haven't won by Thanksgiving, things start to look pretty grim.
November 3, 2010
Anthony Brancato:
Ah, Buddy Young - who once told an audience of college students that he felt he encountered more discrimination as “a 5-foot-4-inch man in a 6-foot-2-inch world” than he did as an African-American in the mid-20th Century.
Awesome stuff.