On paper, the 2010 ALCS is tied at one game apiece, with the teams heading back to New York for three games. The Yankees have earned the split in Texas with an inspiring come-from-behind thriller in Game 1, and thus have home field advantage and circumstances on their side, it would seem.
And yet as sensible as that sounds, there is a common-sense counterargument that goes with it. Texas' Game 3 starter, Cliff Lee, has been purely unstoppable over the last two seasons, particularly in the playoffs and particularly against the Yankees. Go re-watch Game 1 of last year's World Series, when he was matched against ace C.C. Sabathia in New York. In fact, you don't even have to go back that far, just look at what he did to the Tampa Bay Rays in two games in their building in the previous series. Lee has openly admitted he often feels little to no pressure or nerves during big games, he simply sees his clinical dismantling of opposing lineups as fun.
To the Yankees, Lee is the T-1000 model terminator who seamlessly and comfortably adapts to any situation. He is unable to be rattled or slowed down in his mission, and durable enough to finish the contests he starts, a rare trait in today's game. Any playoff game Lee starts is virtually expected to be an 8-inning or complete game victory.
Perhaps lost in this mix is Andy Pettitte, New York's decorated Game 3 starter. With 19 career postseason victories, no other pitcher has made the postseason his home like Andy, and Monday night he aims to become the first-ever postseason 20-game winner. While baseball fans licked their chops for the Roy Halladay/Tim Lincecum pitching matchup in Game 1 of the NLCS, Monday night's Lee/Pettitte battle in the Bronx with somewhat more on the line should be no slouch, either.
All things considered, Pettitte has never consistently pitched at Cliff Lee's high level. He has never been the number one starter for the Yankees, nor the Astros earlier in his career. Pettitte is capable of shutting down dangerous playoff lineups like the Rangers, just not every time out. With Lee, you can feel free to expect that performance time after time. What I expect is something similar to the finale of the 2003 World Series, with Pettitte being out-pitched by Josh Beckett at old Yankee Stadium in a tough-luck 2-0 loss.
With that said, Pettitte gives the Yankees a puncher's chance to win tonight against Lee, but the Yankees will not be favored to win, and if they don't, then the pitching matchup in Game 4 becomes a problem.
The scheduled starter for the Yankees in Game 4 is A.J. Burnett. If you were wondering, this year the A in A.J. stands for Awful. His gluttonous 5.26 ERA and pedestrian 10-15 record was something Yankee fans hoped they would not have to bear in postseason play. Should the Yankees lose Game 3 to Cliff Lee, manager Joe Girardi will have to decide whether to start Burnett as scheduled or turn to C.C. Sabathia on three days rest after the Yankee ace bombed in the opener thanks to perhaps too much rest.
The Rangers' Game 4 starter is Tommy Hunter, the weakest of the Ranger starting pitchers, yet even he sports a 13-4 record and 3.73 ERA. The sense is that the Yankees will not win any game Burnett pitches in without an outrageous offensive output.
So it should be a no-brainer then to move Burnett to Game 5 if the Yankees fail in Game 3. Let's say then that C.C. wins on three days rest in that situation to tie the series, then A.J. would pitch Game 5 against Texas' solid number two starter, C.J. Wilson. In this scenario, a loss by Burnett would mean the Yankees would have to travel to Texas and win both games, begging the question of why was A.J. even added to the roster.
The answer may lie in memories of his postseason performances in 2009, where Burnett, while questionable on the road, was money in his three starts at home in the postseason. The hope still exists that he may be able to channel into that 2009 feel pitching to the home fans in postseason. Yet Yankee fans who have followed Burnett in 2010 will still tell you that theory is a bigger reach than the David Murphy home run that put the Rangers in command in Game 2.
While the gutty comeback of Game 1 reminded Texas of that ever-present Yankee mystique, the Rangers hitters have now lit up Yankee pitching for 12 runs in 2 games. The Yankees have proven their offense to be a relentless machine in this postseason, but even so, they certainly have their work cut out for them in the games ahead. Even with a situation as innocuous sounding as a 1-1 tied series coming home, don't be fooled. Texas is clearly in the driver's seat for the moment.
And if you need any other reason to wonder why, consider this. Should the Yankees battle enough to force the series to Game 7, despite the above mentioned series of circumstances, they have to see that terminator named Lee again in a hostile environment and in a single-elimination contest. Who would you take?
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