Most college football teams have played six out of their 12 regular season games and are playing their conference schedules, which means the Heisman Trophy race will start to take shape. Up until this weekend, the Heisman Trophy race has been largely a one-man competition with Michigan's Denard Robinson the clear favorite.
But after Robinson's performance at rival Michigan State, he moves from the favorite to perhaps one of the invited. Robinson faced a solid defense in a big rivalry game on a national stage and came up short. How he bounces back this week will go a long way in determining his Heisman fate. Iowa's defense has the potential to put a second dent in his Heisman armor. Games against Wisconsin and Ohio State could win him the hardware or sink his chances, as well. Robinson no longer faces Bowling Green or UMass on Saturday afternoons.
When BCS schools move into their conference schedules, Heisman contenders come to the forefront and those who had huge numbers against Little Sisters of the Poor start to fade away.
The 2010 season started with a group of Heisman hopefuls who have mostly faltered, including Washington's Jake Locker and Arkansas' Ryan Mallet. Miami's Jacory Harris, Florida State's Christian Ponder, and USC's Matt Barkley all dropping off the radar.
The Heisman race will also heat up because the BCS championship game no longer looks like Alabama/SEC vs. somebody. As other teams begin their BCS championship run, Heisman candidates will begin to emerge from all around the country.
The second half of the season is a time when teams start to play their conference schedule and the national spotlight burns bright on the BCS schools. The 2009 Heisman race saw Mark Ingram emerge during the second half of the season. Toby Gerhart finished second, and Ndamukong Suh was fourth and none of them were mentioned as part of the preseason Heisman hype.
A look at this year's Heisman candidates at the halfway point reveal BCS conferences dominating the discussion.
Boise State's Kellen Moore was part of the 2010 preseason Heisman hype and is still within striking distance of the trophy, however. He has one big game against Nevada to prove to voters he is worthy of Heisman votes.
Moore was a preseason favorite and continues to garner attention, but with a weak schedule until the Nevada game, it will be very difficult for him to stay in the headlines. He will need to keep putting up huge numbers, rout Nevada, and keep his team in the top five in the BCS standings. It is possible he will receive an invitation to New York if Boise State continues to rise in the rankings.
It will be difficult, however, for a player like Kellen Moore to mount a campaign, as it was tough for Case Keenum last year. Although Moore's numbers may be impressive, it will be almost impossible for him to overcome the players in BCS schools who appear in the "Games of the Week," "Games of the Season," or the seemingly weekly "Game of the Century."
Voters quickly become seduced by the players who appear in the games between ranked teams or the players who have a big game on national television.
The Big 12 has given us Taylor Martinez of Nebraska, Landry Jones of Oklahoma, and Daniel Thomas of Kansas State. As Nebraska makes its way to the Big 12 championship game, Martinez will begin to be featured and mentioned as poised and ready to lead Nebraska to the promised land. Rushing for 241 yards on national television against Kansas State certainly doesn't hurt his chances, either. He has the ability to take over a game and Nebraska's defense will provide Martinez with plenty of opportunities to handle the ball. The black shirt defense is back and the offense is starting to benefit.
Oklahoma's Jones might emerge as the Sooners appear to be on course to meet Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. He is the best player on one of the best teams and although he will not put up the numbers to warrant an invitation to New York, he will have his team in the national championship and sometimes that's all a player needs to be mentioned in the Heisman race.
Kansas State's Daniel Thomas had his candidacy take a hit against Nebraska, but he has the potential to put up big numbers in a BCS conference.
The Pac-10 is stealing the spotlight from other conferences as a power conference and their games will start to garner more national attention. Oregon and Stanford are both fielding Heisman candidates in 2010.
Oregon's LaMichael James has been electric this season. If he stays healthy, Oregon remains in contention, and the Pac-10 keeps its games and teams in the national spotlight, it will be difficult to keep James out of New York. James has at times faltered in games, and been shut down for long stretches of time during games. James, however, then has an 80-yard play and puts himself back in the race. By the end of every game, it is tough to deny him Heisman attention. Oregon's ability to put up 50 points against anyone will give him plenty of opportunity to be invited to New York.
The Pac-10 also features Stanford's steady Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck took his loss against Oregon in stride and followed it up with a win against USC. He doesn't have to overcome big mistakes like Ryan Mallet's interceptions against Alabama, which should help Luck the rest of the way. He emerged from the Oregon loss a candidate and won the following week, staying a Heisman candidate.
The SEC features Auburn's Cam Newton as a Heisman candidate. Newton has Auburn 6-0 and the Tigers are emerging as an SEC favorite. He and Alabama's Mark Ingram will have a showdown in the Iron Bowl that could determine each player's Heisman fate. Although Ingram hasn't played an entire season, it will be difficult to keep him out of Heisman talk the entire year.
Meanwhile, if Steve Spurrier could resist pulling Stephen Garcia out of games for the rest of the season, South Carolina could have a player in the Heisman race.
The Big Ten features one other Heisman candidate besides Denard Robinson and that's Terrelle Pryor. He has been lost in the conversation, but is emerging. He is now leading the number one team and will be featured weekly with contests against Wisconsin and Iowa still to be played. His numbers will eventually get larger put him in the conversation, but leading Ohio State to a BCS championship berth will solidify an invitation to New York.
Players that are lurking in the Heisman race and may make some noise later in the season include Ryan Mallett, Wisconsin's John Clay, and eventually someone from TCU. TCU is ranked too high not to have Andy Dalton begin to be mentioned in the Heisman talk.
Of course, someone on the defensive side of the football will become an instant candidate by early November, as well. Defenses that could have a star emerge include Nebraska, TCU, Boise State, Ohio State, Iowa, and LSU
The three players who look most like they will be invited if they continue to perform at a high level, stay healthy, and their teams keep winning are Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, and Terrelle Pryor. Kellen Moore will be waiting to take someone's place. If Oregon or Ohio State falter and Boise State finds itself in the BCS championship mix before the votes are tallied, Moore might find himself needing a plane ticket to New York.
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