The BCS Projections … For Now

As we've entered the second month of the college football season, the BCS picture still looks fairly clouded. Some slots seem to be locks for teams that have already stood out from the competition, while other spots could end up being an absolute brawl to the end.

So who's in, and who's out? Here's my latest BCS bowl projections to date.

Orange: Miami (FL) vs. West Virginia

The ACC is one gigantic mess. Florida State showed early promise, but the blowout loss to Oklahoma raised some doubts. Virginia Tech simply imploded at the start and Clemson remains inconsistent with the ghosts of what might've been against Auburn. Miami is playing the best football in the conference right now and is the logical pick to stay at home for the Orange Bowl. I see them taking on West Virginia. The Mountaineers appear to be the best team in a very weak Big East, even for Big East standards. The Orange Bowl has the potential to have some steak to it, but not much sizzle.

Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Arizona

The Fiesta takes the Big 12 champion, which I think right now will be Nebraska. Oklahoma is ranked sixth and is undefeated, but I really can't see the Sooner offense having much success against Nebraska's rugged defensive unit. The Sooners are undefeated, but besides the rout of Florida State, have won in fairly ugly fashion (the again, a win's a win, right, OU?).

Nebraska could be the victim of the BCS system; they could easily be undefeated after the regular season, but be behind two or three other undefeated squads. I have the Huskers taking on Arizona. Given the strength of the Pac-10 this year, I'm going ahead and putting two teams from the conference in the BCS. I'm very tempted to put Stanford in this spot; I like the Cardinal and wouldn't be surprised if they made it here. However, I'm jumping on Arizona's and Nick Foles's bandwagon for now; they are playing solid football down in Tucson and could be the story of the college football season this year. Do I hear another Stoops for National Coach of the Year?

Sugar: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma

Ah, Sooners. You might be upset that I'm thinking Huskers for the conference title, but you still make it to BCS territory. Oklahoma might win ugly at times, but good teams find ways to win. Oklahoma has a strong case of winning out the regular season, but I'd still have them falling to Nebraska, which sends the Sooners to Bourbon Street.

On the other side, I have Arkansas in as process of elimination. With Alabama in the title game, I see Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas fighting for the Sugar invite. Florida's rough loss indicates they might lose a few more, and if Alabama takes out South Carolina, that leaves the three from the SEC West. LSU's miracles against North Carolina and Tennessee won't last all season, so that boils it down to the Auburn/Arkansas winner. Despite Auburn having a much easier schedule down the road, I see Arkansas beating the Tigers in a shootout and getting past South Carolina to set up a border showdown in New Orleans.

Rose: Ohio State vs. Boise State

Boise State fans, comment below and protest all you want, but wins over Virginia Tech and Oregon State don't entice me enough to believe that the Broncos deserve a BCS title game invite. I think Boise's a solid team, and I do wish more teams would take the Boise challenge. However, until there's a playoff, Boise needs to stack up quality opponents in order to win over the voters.

The Broncos will get a pretty good consolation prize though in a trip to Pasadena. They'll take on Ohio State, who could easily go undefeated, but given their shaky performance at Illinois, the Buckeyes have raised more doubts with me than the two teams I have picked for the title game. Ohio State still has some tough hurdles to jump over in conference play, but Terrelle Pryor is no doubt the real deal and is worthy of strong Heisman consideration. It may not be the title game, but Boise will have a chance to make yet another big statement.

BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Oregon

I don't think anyone can doubt picking Alabama right now. The Tide breezed past Florida, and if they take care of South Carolina, they should be the team with no problems getting a chance to defend their title. The young 'Bama defense has definitely grown up fast under Nick Saban. The question is if they'll be ready for the Oregon offensive juggernaut. Sure, Oregon has a tough schedule ahead of them, and their defense might be a bit suspect, but how many teams in the country can fall behind 21-3 to a top-10 program and storm back to a relatively easy win? Oregon's mettle was tested, and the Ducks came out winners.

What both teams have in common is that the real stars of their teams are in the trenches. Alabama always has immense talent on the offensive and defensive lines, and you have to say, at least offensively, the line at Oregon is one of the best, if not the best. Think how easy it was for Oregon to replace Jeremiah Masoli, or even LaGarette Blount, for most of last season. No offense given to LaMichael James, who is a phenomenal running back, but the Duck offensive line has made life easier for Chip Kelly and his program. Who wins, though? Right now, I have to take Alabama, whose balance has them geared for a repeat title.