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October 28, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 8

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Buffalo @ Kansas City (-8½)

The Chiefs snapped a two-game losing streak with a 42-20 win over the Jaguars last week, rushing for 236 yards against the struggling Jacksonville defense. On Sunday, Kansas City hosts the winless Bills at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs are 3-0 this year.

"We've turned the AFC West upside down," said Todd Haley. "The Chiefs are on top, and the Chargers are on bottom. We've got a comfortable lead in the division and we're doing it with the league's top-rated rushing offense. Unlike the Chargers, what we're cramming down throats is not hype, but the ball. There's nothing fancy about it. Out here on the flatlands, we call it our 'Plain and Simple' offense.

That doesn't mean we can't strike quickly. We can. If opponents turn their heads for just a second, we've already scored. If opponents turn their heads and cough, offensive lineman Shaun Smith may have already grasped their testicles."

The Bills are the NFL's only remaining winless team, 0-6 after a heartbreaking 37-34 overtime loss in Baltimore. The Bills showed promise in a losing effort, and head coach Chan Gailey hopes that will carry over against the Chiefs.

"As they say," Chan Gailey said, "'Nobody circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills.' As you can see, it forms the shape of a zero."

The Chiefs rush for 183 yards on the ground, and Matt Cassel tosses 2 touchdown passes. Ryan Succup puts the game out of reach with 3 late field goals as, once again, the white man kills off Buffalo.

Chiefs win, 36-21.

Jacksonville @ Dallas (-6½)

After Monday's 35-31 loss to the Giants, the Cowboys' season lay in shambles, at 1-5 with Tony Romo on the shelf with a broken left collarbone. And, to add insult to injury, some joker replaced video of Monday night's game with 1987's classic vampire flick The Lost Boys.

"I've seen both," said Jerry Jones, "and there was sucking in both. All season long I've been looking for someone to step up and shoulder the blame for our troubles, but now, ironically, there's a shoulder to blame. Our losses continue to mount. Unfortunately, I can't write these losses off on my taxes. Before this game, I said it was 'put up or shut up' time. Well, I never 'shut up,' so that can only mean I'll have to 'put up' with Wade Phillips, until I find the gumption to fire him. The Giants really took it to us, and the game wasn't as close as the score indicated. I guess a home game for the Cowboys in the Super Bowl won't happen. I'd say, right now, the Jets and Giants look like respective favorites in the AFC and NFC. So, like Monday night's game, you could say the Super Bowl will be 'all New York.'"

The Jaguars, without David Garrard, fell to the Chiefs 42-20 in Kansas City, falling to 3-4 and further into the AFC South cellar. On Sunday, the Jags wil challenge a Dallas team intent on fighting its way back into the NFC East race.

"As a former Cowboy player," said Jack Del Rio, "I'm aware of the lofty expectations heaped upon the team every year. And, as the current Jacksonville coach, I'm aware of how to deal with disappointment.

Jon Kitna is no Tony Romo, but I expect Kitna to flourish while charged with running the Dallas show. With a 1-5 record, no Romo, and a season of discontent, Kitna has the unique opportunity of leading Dallas' 'Doomsday Offense.'"

Given a week to prepare, and with plenty of weapons at his disposal, Kitna should be well-armed against the Jaguars soft pass defense. Heck, he might even be dating a sexy blonde starlet, or texting intimate photos to Jason Witten, by week's end.

Dallas wins, 38-20.

Washington @ Detroit (-1)

Washington kept a share of the NFC East lead with a 17-14 win in Chicago as DeAngelo Hall intercepted Jay Cutler 4 times, returning one 92 yards for the game-winning score. Up next for the 'Skins are the 1-5 Lions, a team that, despite its record, is no pushover.

"As a Chicago native," said Hall, "Donovan McNabb has always wondered what it would be like to play for the Bears. Well, now I can tell him how it feels, because, after 4 interceptions, I know what it's like to wear a Bears uniform. Cutler says he would still target me, even after the 4 picks. Then it's decided. Cutler is dumber than he looks. But let's give Cutler some credit. He has a great arm, but only if you're talking about 'throwing' games."

The Lions will welcome the return of Matthew Stafford, who has missed the last five games because of a shoulder injury suffered in a Week 1 loss at Chicago.

"Speaking of Cutler," Stafford said, "the Bears have to be the most susceptible division leader in the NFL. I wouldn't be surprised if they're out of first by yesterday. Much like a Cutler pass, the Bears are ripe for the picking.

We may be 1-5, but don't count us out of the division race just yet. The Vikings are a text and/or a shattered ankle from losing Brett Favre. It seems Favre has a nasty habit of getting an unwanted 'boner.'

And the Packers are the walking wounded. So, much like a Cutler pass, this division is a toss-up."

If the Lions are to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, they'll have to beat the Redskins. And what's the secret to beating the Redskins? Throw the ball at them, not to them.

Calvin Johnson catches 7 passes for 118 yards and 2 scores, and the Lions win, 26-23.

Miami @ Cincinnati (-2½)

The 3-3 Dolphins suffered a painful 23-22 loss to the Steelers last week, a loss made more agonizing by a replay ruling that almost won, yet ultimately lost the game for Miami. With 2:28 to play, Ben Roethlisberger fumbled before he crossed the goal line, a determination verified by instant replay. But officials couldn't verify who recovered in the end zone, although Miami linebacker Ikaika Alama-Francis appeared to recover, and even handed the ball to officials. By rule, Pittsburgh maintained possession, and Jeff Reed kicked the game-winning field goal.

"We got screwed," said Tony Sparano. "And screws are made of steel, so I guess it's fitting. I suppose the evidence of that replay decision puts the 'con' in 'conclusive.' But, unlike the 1972 Dolphins, we can't dwell on the past. Under further review, there's nothing we can do about it. We'll just have to go out and take out our frustrations on the Bengals. I imagine Marvin Lewis often says the same thing in practice."

The Dolphins and Brandon Marshall will look to bounce back against the Bengals and their dynamic receiving duo of Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens. Cincinnati, last year's AFC North champ, is 2-4 and three games behind the Steelers in the division race.

"Marshall, Ochocinco, and Owens in one stadium?" Marvin Lewis said. "I haven't seen that much ego in one place since I read a Sigmund Freud book. Mistakenly, I thought Freud's research on the 'Oedipus Complex' would give me some insight to having 'mo fo's' like Owens and Ochocinco on my team. It did not. Alas, reading Freud's The Ego and the Id left me unsatisfied. In fact, it left me confused. What is the 'id?' To me, it sounds like an incomplete word, one much like my team, in that it is missing a 'D.'"

The Bengals find their defense, and some motivation. Cincy wins, 22-19.

Denver @ San Francisco (-1)

Halloween came early for the troubled Broncos, victimized like horny and clueless Camp Crystal Lake teenagers in an embarrassing 59-14 loss in Denver to the hated Raiders. It was a loss that surely made the Broncos' flight to London, where they will face the 49ers on Sunday, more grueling.

"Indeed," said Josh McDaniels, "it was bloody awful. It's pretty bad when you have to apologize to your team's owner for your performance. Of course, when you say 'We're sorry,' you have to clarify whether it's an apology or a simple statement of fact. The Raiders rushed for 328 yards on us. Not only did we get run out of Invesco Field, we got run clear out of the country. We crossed seven time zones on our way to England; the Raiders crossed even more red zones on their way through Denver. Now, I'm not sure the English are ready for Tim Tebow fever taking Britain by storm. And I'm not sure Tim is ready himself. He's now a man torn between his convictions. On one hand, God is calling. On the other hand, London's calling. It will be a clash of epic proportions."

The 49ers also faced a shameful intercontinental flight after falling 23-20 to the previously winless Panthers. It was a further, and possibly fatal, blow to the psyche of a team picked by many to win the NFC West.

"I've got no answers," Mike Singletary, "and I'm taking no questions. It's all part of my 'don't ask, don't tell' interview policy, which is destined to result in no straight answers. I don't often take the advice of fans. However, nothing I've done seems to be working, so I'm taking up the suggestion of a number of fans and 'getting out of the country.' They say a change of scenery can do some good."

How is a San Fran/Denver game in London like a San Fran/Denver game in America? Either way, it's meaningless. With Alex Smith out, Troy Smith gets the start for the Niners, and feeds workhorse Frank Gore the ball. Singletary impresses the Wembley crowd with some daring calls, including a fake field goal attempt, but impresses the guards at Buckingham Palace even more with his impeccable posture.

Gore rushes for 123 yards and 2 scores, and San Francisco wins, 27-23.

Green Bay @ New York Jets (-5½)

Injuries continue to mount for the Packers, who lost defensive end Mike Neal and linebacker Brady Poppinga to season-ending surgeries. Since running back Ryan Grant went down in Week 1, Green Bay has since dealt with several more injuries.

"Yes, we're hurting," Aaron Rodgers said, "And a game against the Jets, arguably the NFL's best team, doesn't alleviate the pain whatsoever. Me? I' feel no pain. However, I am 'aching' for a relationship with a young, nubile, 20-something Jets employee. And I don't mean Mark Sanchez.

But even I know that expressing your interest in a woman with a text message photo is the best way to do it. Now, if she responds with a text massage, you're good to go."

Contrary to the Packers, the Jets injury list is short, and Darrelle Revis has declared himself 100% healthy, free from the hamstring issue that cost him two games.

"Frankly," Mark Sanchez said, "we're all raring to go. We're gone for one bye week, and we miss all the fun. What'd we miss? Let's see. There's a Jets employee, a penis, and some helmet-to-helmet hits. What's the big deal? You could have seen that in any unedited episode of Hard Knocks. Incidentally, the NFL has ordered HBO to change the name of its show because they claim it condones illegal hits.

Now, I'm not going to stand here and play the hypocrite by telling you I've never taken a photograph of my privates. I have, but there's a proper time and place for its display.

But in all seriousness, we could all witness the end of Brett Favre's iron man streak, in which he's started an amazing 291 consecutive games. It's too bad it coincides with the Jenn Sterger scandal. So it would seem that Favre's career, like the man himself, has 'petered out.'"

Jets win, 27-24.

Carolina @ St. Louis (-3)

Old NFC West rivals face off when the 1-5 Panthers travel to the Edward Jones Dome to challenge the 3-4 Rams. Carolina left the shrinking ranks of winless teams with a 23-20 win over the 49ers last week, overcoming a 7-point deficit late in the fourth quarter to win on John Kasay's 37-yard field goal with 39 seconds left.

"It's not without a bit of nostalgia that I make my return to St. Louis," John Fox said. "My feelings for St. Louis and the Edward Jones Dome are not unlike a certain pair of Panther cheerleaders fondness for Tampa Bay and a bathroom stall — we both get the 'warm fuzzies' when we go.

The Rams are 3-4 and still very much a factor in the NFC West race. Last week's 18-17 loss to the Bucs hurt, but a win over the Panthers would give the Rams a 4-4 going into their bye week.

"We can't afford to take the Panthers lightly," said Sam Bradford. "And we won't. We'll take them easily."

Rams win, 22-17.

Tennessee @ San Diego (-3½)

The Chargers still lead the NFL in total offense and total defense, yet the team continues to self-destruct, done in by errors and turnovers that have left San Diego with a 2-5 record. In last week's 23-20 loss to New England, the Chargers committed 4 turnovers and missed a game-tying field goal, due in part to a penalty that made Kris Brown's attempt a 50-yarder. They will have to limit mistakes against a Tennessee team that leads the league in turnover differential.

"Football is a game of give and take," Philip Rivers said. "At least for most teams. For us, it's a game of 'give and mistakes.' Turnovers have been killing us. I've kept my interceptions to a minimum, with only 6, but fumbles have cost us dearly. We've got too many guys putting the ball on the ground, and if you saw last Sunday's game against New England, you know I mean that literally.

But don't think for a minute that we're ready to pack it in. You never know what we might have up our sleeves. More than likely, it's a turnover, or Vincent Jackson's contract, or A.J. Smith's pride. But we could still surprise some teams. I'm sure if we showed up on Sunday dressed as skeletons, the Titans would certainly be surprised, but still able to immediately identify us as 'boneheads.'

The Titans have won three in a row after claiming a 37-19 win over the Eagles. In that game, wide receiver Kenny Britt caught 7 passes for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns after sitting for the first quarter, disciplined because of his role in a bar fight on October 22nd.

"Britt could face further discipline," Jeff Fisher said. "Unfortunately, I can't address questions concerning that because, as you know, the first rule of Fight Club is 'You don't talk about Fight Club.'

I've done some investigating into the incident, and it looks as though Kenny is guilty of a bad decision at the very least. So, he will be punished. Kenny played at Rutgers, so I hereby sentence him to wear a Scarlet letter. The punishment must fit the crime, but more importantly, it must fit my plans to have Kenny in the game.

But Chris Johnson isn't our only home run threat. Kenny can go all the way, too. In fact, Chris hasn't had a 3-touchdown game this year. So, Kenny one-upped Johnson, just as Kanye West one-upped Johnson with his diamond teeth. I think he calls them 'teef.' Kanye may be a dental giant, but he's a mental midget."

Can the Chargers turn things around? Yes, on themselves. The good thing about playing the Chargers is you don't have to force turnovers. You just have to be there to pick them up. But this time, the Chargers do the taking, forcing 3 Kerry Collins turnovers.

San Diego wins, 30-27.

Tampa Bay @ Arizona (-3)

The Buccaneers stunned the Rams last week 18-17 on Josh Freeman's one-yard pass to Cadillac Williams with 10 seconds remaining. Tampa improved to 4-2 with the win, a ½-game behind the Falcons in the NFC South, and will face an Arizona team that is undefeated at home.

"Did I mean it when I said we were the NFC's best team?" said Raheem Morris. "It was a bold statement, but like the pirate ship in the end zone at Raymond James Stadium, that statement won't 'float,' nor does it hold water."

Arizona lost quarterback Max Hall to a concussion is last week's 27-19 loss to Seattle. Hall passed his concussion tests and has been cleared to practice. Ken Whisenhunt experts him to be ready for the Buccaneers.

"As you know," said Whisenhunt, "Hall is a Mormon, not to be confused with a moron and/or Matt Leinart. Now, when concussion tests are given to Mormons, it's a lot like polygamy — it's multiple choice."

Arizona wins, 24-13.

Minnesota @ New England (-5½)

Problems continue to mount for the 2-4 Vikings. Not only is the NFL still investigating the Brett Favre/Jenn Sterger situation, but Favre suffered ankle fractures in last week's 28-24 loss to the Packers, and he also aggravated Brad Childress, who chided Favre for the 3 interceptions that contributed to the Vikes' loss.

"The Packers can break me," Favre said, "but NFL investigators can't. I've admitted to leaving Sterger voicemails, but not to texting pictures of my crotch. I'll admit to nothing, therefore there will be no 'package' deal.

As for Childress, it's one thing to criticize your quarterback; it's another to criticize officials. Criticizing me won't cost you a dime. But Chilly had a point. The officials overturned three of our touchdowns against the Packers. They cost us more points than I did."

The 5-1 Patriots are thriving without Randy Moss, and are 2-0 since Moss was traded to the Vikes.

"I'm happy for Moss," said Brady. "People have said that we weren't 'on the same page' while he was in New England. But now that he's in Minnesota, we are definitely on the same page. He wants to be there, and I want him there, too.

Randy's return to Minnesota has been a successful one. He's got 2 touchdowns in two games, plus, with all of Favre's interceptions, Randy's become quite a tackler. His form is textbook. Heretofore, Randy's ability to 'wrap up' has been limited to the use of rolling paper."

The stage is set for Favre to add to his legend with a heroic effort in Foxboro, against three-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady. Favre trots onto the field, trying his best to hide his "limp." He can't, and Jenn Sterger has the picture to prove it.

But Favre has no problem handing off to Adrian Peterson, who takes the pressure off Favre with a huge game.

Peterson rushes for 181 yards and 2 scores, and the Vikings win, 30-27.

Seattle @ Oakland (-3)

After last week's win over Arizona, the Seahawks lead the NFC West and will put their 4-2 record on the line when they face the unenviable task of meeting the Raiders on Halloween at Oakland Coliseum.

"My kid Henry asked me where I would be on Halloween," said Matt Hasselbeck. "Who knew I'd be able to quote Seattle grunge rockers Soundgarden when I answered 'Black Hole, Son.'

And that's where I'll be. In the Black Hole, where the freaks come out at day. Halloween games in Oakland are often confusing to Raider fans. At any other time during the season, they'd be in costume, whether it be Skeletor, Darth Vader, Al Davis, or some other evil, iconic villain. Since it's Halloween, should Raider fans come dressed as regular fans?"

The Raiders made a statement with last week's 59-14 blowout in Denver, silencing the Bronco faithful early.

"Indeed," said Tom Cable. "And that statement was '59 points sure does skew our statistics, particularly points per game.' Here's the funny thing, though. Altitude has no effect on humiliation. Actually, we gave the Broncos a lesson in economics and a nice going-away present. In advance of their trip to London, they took a pounding."

Seattle wins, 19-16.

Pittsburgh @ New Orleans (+1)

In light of events involving unwanted sexual advances and helmet-to-helmet hits, Sunday night's game between Pittsburgh and New Orleans could be deemed a matchup of "Sinners versus Saints." Or in light of the defending Super Bowl champions troubles and shaky 4-3 record, Sunday's game could be called the "Steelers versus Reelers." Whatever you call it, the Saints need a win badly, and a win over the 5-1 Steelers would be their first over a team with a winning record.

"A win over the Steelers won't be easy," said Drew Brees, "with or without the officials help. It will be a personal challenge for me against arguably the league's best defense. I'll have to keep my eyes peeled for Troy Polamalu, and I'll be sure to be on the lookout for James Harrison. I'll be honest. I want no part of a hit from Harrison, helmet-to-helmet or not. Heck, the only 'crowning' I was willing to experience was during my child's birth."

The Steelers are perfect on the road, and will face a rowdy Superdome crowd, eager to spur the home team on to victory.

"Yeah, we know 'Big Easy' crowds can be pretty rowdy," said kicker Jeff Reed. "Here's a French Quarter, call someone who cares.

We've got our own 'Big Easy,' Ben Roethlisberger, a man with such charisma that not only do women swoon at his feet, but so do officials, particularly at the goal line. Sure, Ben may have a fumbling problem, but it's one that can be easily corrected, by NFL rules."

New Orleans wins, 28-27.

Houston @ Indianapolis (-5½)

Revenge will in the heads of the Colts when the upstart Texans enter Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday night, a contest that is sure to excite the 63,000 fans in attendance, who will no doubt be screaming for vengeance.

"Unlike other players," said Peyton Manning, "I don't get fined for leading with my head; I get compensated. That's because I have the highest football IQ of any player in history. And that's a blessing and a curse. It's a curse in that people expect so much from me, and only one Super Bowl title is basically considered failure. With that being said, I'd like to clarify that The Ring is a true classic in the horror genre, and is in no way a commentary on my playoff record.

Now, you probably heard about our punter, Pat McAfee, going for an early morning swim in a canal. I'm not sure how much he had to drink, but I'm sure his blood alcohol content was inside the .20. Colts players sure do put the 'special' is 'special teams.' If it's not an 'idiot kicker,' it's an 'idiot punter.'"

The Texans will hope for a repeat of their Week 1 34-24 win over the Colts. In that game, Arian Foster rushed for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns.

"That would be called 'deja Hou-ston,'" said Matt Schaub. "We know the Colts have payback on their minds. To draw a parallel to the Brett Favre/Jenn Sterger situation, the Colts 'have it out' for us. Hopefully, our play will force them to 'put it back.'"

Colts win, 34-31.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:46 PM | Comments (4)

How Impressive is Brett Favre's Penis ... on a Resume?

What does it mean for your career when Brett Favre's penis is on your resume? That's the question I can't get away from in this saga. I feel like that is a not-so-awful path to stardom. There are certainly worse ways to become famous. Kim Kardashian had to have consensual sex with a man on video. Erin Andrews had to dance around naked on video. And Barbaro had to die. Having a legendary quarterback sext you a picture of his junk is at least one rung higher than those.

Brett Favre will have no problem distancing himself from the accusations that he sent sports television personality Jenn Sterger pictures of his junk when they both worked for the Jets. He'll move past it with ease because he's white (race card alert!).

If the media wanted another Tiger Woods, they could probably crucify 100 different professional athletes, but not Brett Favre. His crime is that he's stupid. That's not even what we should hate most about him. That should be his ridiculous commercials for jeans. Or, if you want to belittle him for anything, laugh at him for his addiction to painkillers. A crippling addiction is funny, right?

Sterger, on the other hand, is going to emerge from this "controversy" as a legitimate sports personality. This is how it happens. This is how people "make the leap" in fame. Something tabloid-worthy has to happen to you. Whether it's being videotaped naked through a peephole, or whether it's placing your mouth on someone's peephole (also on videotape), it doesn't matter. How you get to Fametown isn't nearly as important as being there.

Look at Kim Kardashian. Does anyone care about her sex tape? No. She's a "reality television star." Not an "amateur cocksucker." All that matters for Sterger is that she's in the news. That people know who she is. And thus, a star is born.

To be fair, this is more like a career revival for Sterger. Everyone who knew her name before this incident knows her backstory. She was shown a few times on a nationally-televised broadcast of a college football game and from that, somehow became a model, in Playboy of all places.

Her claim to fame is dressing like a tramp at a football game. I'm not judging her. In fact, I fully support this, and hope to see more copycats in the future.

Not enough people knew of Sterger, though, even after the Playboy pictorial. She was able to parlay her assets (boobs) into a job with the Jets that didn't last too long. She has never portrayed herself as an expert and I can attest to that fact, as I booked her for an interview when I was producing a radio show.

Before Favredickgate hit the news, Sterger was hosting the Versus version of "SportsCenter." It's entirely possible I'm making that up, but people cared so little of what she was up to that I don't even want to take the time to fact-check that one line. Some people don't even know what Versus is and 100 percent of people had no idea they even had a "SportsCenter"-esque show.

So while it was her own chest that got her on the radar, it was Brett Favre's penis that helped her make the leap to the next level. I hope she never forgets that. I kept a framed copy of the first paycheck I ever received from ESPN.com. Similarly, I hope she keeps a framed photo of Brett Favre's junk.

The only thing that could potentially be a problem here is if this just doesn't blow up big enough. The public could be over-saturated with sports sex scandals on the heels of the Tiger Woods scandal, so this might not do much for people. If that's the case, Sterger might have to get a real job.

And, when she goes in for that interview, the most impressive thing on her resume will be Brett Favre's penis.

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 4:36 PM | Comments (0)

October 27, 2010

Top Five Questions About the College Hoops Season

I can still hear the final buzzer sounding as Gordon Hayward lofted a half-court shot in the championship game that almost became the Greatest Shot in Sports History. (Sorry for re-living the heartbreak, Bulldog fans.)

Even though it was a bit too strong, Butler and all the other three hundred-plus men's basketball teams will have a chance at climbing to the top of the mountain again in the brand spanking new season of 2010-2011.

Certainly, men's college basketball gets people's juices flowing for all sorts of reasons. Some may be alumni of the program, others FBPs (fans by proximity), and still others that just think the cheerleaders are hot. But there is no denying that whatever reason you look forward to madness of March and all the chaos leading up to it, your weekends just got a little more entertaining.

Here are the five things that I am dying to know leading up to this year's season:

1. Can the AP Player of the Year also lead his team to the promise land?

I know, I know, it's not your typical storyline for a new season, but I just want to see a player do what no player has done since Shane Battier in 2001. It takes chemistry and leadership, and a little luck to win a title. It also takes athleticism and dominance to win the AP Player of the Year Award.

I'd just like to see the two be put together in a "wow, that guy just took the nation by storm and won the big one all in the same five-month span" sandwich.

2. What unknown schools will make a mark on the tournament?

I met a woman at a party recently and we had seemingly nothing in common. Luckily, however, she went to Oral Roberts for undergrad. All I knew about Oral Roberts University is that they had made the tourney a few times since 2006. That was sufficient information to make polite conversation and keep the "awkward" levels set to low.

Even though ORU didn't win a game any of the three times they made the big dance between 2006 and 2008, it still got me thinking.

Who will be this year's George Mason? This year's St. Mary's? What no-name, unrecognizable team with a student body total of less than your local elementary school will come along and win over fans everywhere? It seems to be a new team every year and the anticipation is already killing me.

3. Will the Pac-10 get more than two teams in the tournament this year?

Yes, it's the West Coast bias taking over in me, but what the heck happened to this conference? Other than Washington, no one particularly stands out. UCLA is still licking its wounds. USC doesn't have O.J. Mayo raking in cash and putting up big numbers. I don't know what to say here. Please just get it together, guys.

4. Will there be any noticeable effect of expanding the tournament to 68 teams?

It is unlikely the Duke's of the world care about this in the slightest. However, do all those bubble teams that have seen their bubble burst on selection day suddenly have new found hope? I know teams like Virginia tech come in favored to place as high as second this year in the ACC, but last year they sure could have used an extra four slots.

5. What other big programs will suffer allegations of NCAA violations?

We've already seen teams like UConn and Kentucky get in to some treacherous waters before the first tip, but will other storied programs such as Syracuse or North Carolina come under scrutiny as well?

I think even the casual fan knows by now that these top-tier schools commit more infractions than Lindsey Lohan post-rehab, but let's also keep in mind that the NCAA Compliance Handbook is bigger than "War and Peace."

My thing is that there is no excuse for knowingly violating a rule. That's why Bruce Pearl deserves whatever hit he takes on his new contract. I just hope other coaches are taking note.

Here's to another great year of college basketball. May it ride the wave of the thrilling conclusion to last year's season.

Posted by Justin Shagrin at 3:54 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 32

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished fifth in the TUMS Fast Relief 500, a solid result, albeit one that was outdone by his closest Chase For The Cup competitors, Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick. Hamlin won, and Harvick finished third, as both cut into Johnson's points lead. Johnson leads Hamlin by 6, and Harvick by 62.

"My inability to pull away from Hamlin and Harvick," Johnson said, "left me wondering 'What the 'H?'

But kudos to Hamlin for winning at Martinsville and making the Chase interesting again, just in time for the uncertainty of Talladega. Denny's obtaining quite a collection of grandfather clocks from Martinsville. He won just in time, before I got too far ahead. So, not only was he racing for the clock, he was racing against it."

2. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin passed Kevin Harvick with 29 laps to go at Martinsville and cruised to the win in the Tums Fast Relief 500, completing the season sweep at the ½-mile Virginia track. Hamlin sliced 35 points from Johnson's points lead, and now trails by only 6 points.

"I did exactly what I needed to do," Hamlin said. "Johnson was gradually pulling away from us in the points, but my win at Martinsville put a stop to that. Now, instead of being left behind, I'm right behind."

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick posted his third top-five finish of the Chase with a third at Martinsville, his 14th top-five of the year. He is third in the point standings, 62 behind Jimmie Johnson, with Talladega up next, where Harvick won in April.

"At this point," Harvick said, "it's every man for himself. At least, that seems to be Jeff Burton's take on the matter. It amazes me that my teammate would race me that hard when he's well out of contention for the Cup. So, if he puts his nose in my business, then I have no choice but to put my nose in his business."

4. Kyle Busch — Busch finished fourth at Martinsville, one spot ahead of Jimmie Johnson, battling the defending Cup champion over the race's final 100 laps. Busch is fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, 172 out of first.

"After David Reutimann wrecked me at Kansas," Busch said, "I declared my Cup hopes over. With Talladega looming, I've reconsidered. Just as hopes can be ruined by a double zero, they can be revived by a single 'one,' the 'big one,' in other words.

I'm sure Johnson, Hamlin, and Harvick will be laying back on Talladega's 2.66 mile tri-oval, hoping to avoid trouble. Hopefully, the 'big one' will emphasize the 'cream' of 'cream of the crop.'"

5. Carl Edwards — Edwards posted a solid eighth at Martinsville, scoring his 16th top-10 of the year. He trails Jimmie Johnson by 200 in the point standings, and will need a strong run, along with trouble for the frontrunners, at Talladega to find his way back in to the title hunt.

"I mean no physical harm to anyone," Edwards said, "but I hope trouble finds my competitors at Talladega. If nothing else, I should be able to offer directions, because trouble usually finds me first at Talladega."

6. Jeff Gordon — Gordon led 56 laps at Martinsville, but his hopes for a top-five run were crushed on lap 380, when a heated battle with Kurt Busch left Gordon with heavy damage to the rear of the No. 24 National Guard Chevrolet. In the fateful sequence of events, Gordon dove inside Busch and bumped his way around the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge. Busch retaliated, bumping Gordon and sending his back side hard into the inside wall. Gordon eventually finished 20th, two laps down.

"I've lived," Gordon said, "and I've died by NASCAR's 'Boys, have at it' directive. And Busch 'killed' me in this case. Luckily, in this sport, revenge is a lot easier to come by than a win. But revenge doesn't always mean one driver comes out on the short end. On the contrary, my revenge on Busch will be a win-win situation. I'll get mine, and he'll get his.

As you may have heard, my No. 24 car will be sponsored next year by the anti-hunger campaign 'Drive For Hunger.' It's a deal that makes sense, because, as someone mired in a lengthy winless strength, I'm certainly 'hungry.'"

7. Tony Stewart — Stewart ran well at Martinsville, but a flat tire with ten laps to go derailed his run to a top-15 finish. Forced to pit under green to change tires, Stewart fell two laps down and finished 24th. He fell one spot in the point standings to seventh, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 236.

"If it's not an empty gas tank crippling us," said Stewart, "it's an empty tire. I may be out of the running for the Sprint Cup, but that doesn't mean I can't enjoy the final four races. So, my situation is a lot like a flat tire — there's no pressure."

8. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth saw a top-10 finish at Martinsville fall to the wayside when he was tagged for speeding on the exit of pit road during a caution on lap 384. The penalty cost Kenseth 13 spots after he was forced to restart at the end of the longest line in 20th. He reclaimed five positions over the final 100 laps, finishing 15th, and gained one spot in the point standings to tenth, 293 out of first.

"All three Roush Fenway cars are over 200 points out of the lead," Matt Kenseth said. "So are chances of winning the Cup are gone. Of all the teams in the Chase, at least you can say we're consistent. We put three cars in, and we've got three cars 'out.'"

9. Jeff Burton — Burton led 134 of 500 laps at Martinsville, but his race was defined more by a run-in with Richard Childress teammate Kevin Harvick. Burton and Harvick engaged in a heated battle, with Harvick bumping Burton under caution as the two bad-mouthed each other over the radio.

"Harvick is certainly no 'CAT' lover," said Burton. "Last time I checked, there were no team orders in NASCAR, although Kasey Kahne's departure would seem to indicate otherwise.

Harvick proved that he could defend a teammate when he pestered Denny Hamlin after Hamlin criticized Clint Bowyer. Now Kevin's proved that he can offend a teammate."

10. Kurt Busch — Busch finished 16th at Martinsville, battling his way to a hard-fought result that left Jeff Gordon spinning courtesy of Busch's No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge. Busch sent Gordon into the wall after Gordon bumped his way past Busch on lap 380. Busch is now ninth in the point standings, 237 out of first.

"Gordon may have slammed his rear end into the inside wall," Busch said, "but he learned the hard way that I won't 'back down.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 2:43 PM | Comments (0)

October 26, 2010

NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* The AFC has won 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls. If I were a betting man, I'd like the chances for 8 of 11.

* The Green Bay Packers have the best fans in the NFL.

* Brett Favre is not going to retire before next season, or at least not permanently. Don't be gullible. This man has been teasing us with retirement since 2004. That's why the Packers drafted Aaron Rodgers all those years ago, because Brett indicated that he wasn't going to play much longer. You think he's gone? He's not gone! That's the whole point! He's never gone!

* Randy Moss has got to hold the record for most offensive pass interference penalties. Does someone keep statistics on this?

* The Raiders are the most up-and-down, unpredictable team in the league. How do you score 9 points against San Francisco in Week 6, then explode for 59 in Denver the next game?

***

I'm hard on ESPN's Monday night announcing booth. I don't think it's as much because they're worse than other booths as because (1) I see them every week, (2) there are three people offering opinions instead of two, (3) they're opinionated, and (4) Jon Gruden doesn't care whether or not what he says makes sense.

But Gruden didn't really bother me this week. He did refer to Justin Tuck as "Jason Tuck" at least twice, but he only said "this guy" three times, and he tried to talk some sense into Ron Jaworski (more on that later). Gruden still doesn't understand punting, though: "Matt Dodge just can't win. He makes a great punt, and this is all rookie Dez Bryant." Dodge bombed a punt 63 yards, far beyond his coverage unit, and it predictably yielded a long return, in this case a touchdown by Bryant. That is not a great punt. It's not even a good punt. I don't know what percentage of 60+ yard punts get returned for touchdowns, but I bet it's high, maybe 4% (the average is about 0.5%). What matters on a punt is not where it's caught, but where the ball ends up, and you're never going to get a fair catch on a 63-yard punt, nor are you going to get an immediate hit on the returner or box the guy in. Almost always, he's got the open field to work with, and it takes amazing work from your coverage unit to prevent a long return.

At the beginning of the third quarter, Mike Tirico criticized Mat McBriar's punt as "only 42 yards", but it had tons of hang time and got an immediate hit for no yardage on the return. That is a very good punt, 42 net yards. It's 2010, guys. Gross yardage is to NFL punters as batting average is to MLB hitters: if that's the only thing you're looking at, you cannot properly judge the player. McBriar's 42-yard punt, which put his coverage team in position to prevent a return, was better than Dodge's 63-yard bomb that put a dangerous returner in the open field. This is easy to understand if you think about it.

Jaworski and Tirico got extremely fired up during the second half of Monday night's game, directing their ire at the Dallas coaching staff for a pair of gambles when the Cowboys were playing catch-up. With 8:19 remaining, Dallas was down 38-20 with fourth down at the 6-yard line. The Cowboys lined up to go for the touchdown, and Tirico and Jaws just lost it. They're acting like this is the stupidest decision in the history of coaching, with Jaworski unmistakably angry, literally shouting over Gruden when the latter suggested that it wasn't such a bad idea.

Let's look at this. If you kick the field goal, it's 38-23. You need to outscore the Giants by 15 points in the next eight minutes just to get to overtime. That's two touchdowns, and you haven't put together a drive longer than 21 yards all night. Honestly, you're not going to get to the 6-yard line two more times. If the Giants do so much as add a field goal, you need three scores, and that's definitely not happening. But 6 yards is a makable play, your offense has some momentum, and if you get in, it's an 11-point game. A touchdown and a field goal sounds much more realistic than two TDs, and now you're still only down two scores even if the Giants add another field goal.

It seems to me that Dallas made the right choice. If you're trying to win the game, you go for the touchdown. You have to take some chances when you're behind 18 with only half a quarter left. But why give yourself the best chance to win when you can play it safe and lose by slightly less? I swear Jaws would rather go 8-8 with a bunch of close losses than 10-6 with a couple embarrassments in there. I'd agree with him if the game was close or there was a bunch of time left, but you're down by a ton and the game is almost over; you've got to take some chances, and the odds really aren't so bad here. Even if you prefer the field goal, surely you can see why shooting for the end zone is a reasonable decision.

That attempt failed, but with 3:17 left in the game, Dallas scored a touchdown to make it 38-26. Tirico: "Dallas is lining up to go for two here. That two is a mistake. That's a mistake! They're doing the wrong thing!" At this point, Tirico seemed to remember that he was a professional and calmed down a little, but he was still very firm that Dallas was incorrect: "If you miss here, then you're down 12 and you need two touchdowns. If you kick the extra point, then you're down 11 and you need a field goal, a touchdown, and a two-point. You never go for two until you absolutely need to." Why not, Mike?

If you miss, you need two touchdowns. True. If you kick it, you still need an awful lot. What if you get a field goal and a touchdown, but you miss the two-point conversion you still need? Now there's no time left, and you just lost by two. If you miss it now, you already know you need two touchdowns. If you make it, 10-point game. I don't think going for two there was necessarily a better decision than the kick, but I'm certainly not convinced it was worse. Kicking the XP is just delaying the inevitable, and for Tirico to freak out the way he did makes me think he felt like the Cowboys were breaking a rule, doing something morally wrong, and that he hasn't given rational consideration to the reason for delaying a two-point try.

Life goes on, guys. I disagree with coaches all the time. But to be on a professional nationwide broadcast freaking out because a losing coach is taking bold steps to try to catch up is unbecoming of these guys. Tirico is the best play-by-play man in the business, and Jaws ... well, he works hard to do a good job. I just wish he would turn his insight toward his own beliefs and examine whether there's a legitimate reason for them.

Hey, Week 7 power rankings. Brackets indicate previous rank.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers [1] — The league's best defense lost a key player this weekend. Aaron Smith, who also missed most of last season, left the game with what is being reported as a torn triceps. Smith, one of the most underrated players of this generation, started every game for Pittsburgh's last two Super Bowl teams and earned a spot on my All-Decade Team. Earlier in the week, James Harrison, whom the NFL hit with a $75,000 fine last week as part of its crackdown on dangerous hits, acted like a huge crybaby and spent a day threatening to retire. Next week, he will refuse to eat anything except spaghetti and hold his breath until he turns blue.

2. New York Jets [2] — A lot of people like them at the top, ahead of Pittsburgh, and that's a reasonable position. But their last two wins, over the Broncos and Vikings, were uncomfortably close. Those clubs are a combined 4-9, and you expect a great team to dominate opponents like that. New York's immediate schedule doesn't look terribly threatening, and I expect the Jets to be 9-2 (maybe even 10-1) heading into their Week 13 matchup at New England.

3. Tennessee Titans [6] — Known primarily for their defense, the Titans actually lead the NFL in points scored (199) and point differential (+82). Tennessee's offense and defense are actually about average with respect to yardage, but all the intangibles — special teams, red zone play, etc. — have them among the league leaders in points scored and allowed. The Titans are one of only four teams with a current winning streak of at least three games, and they're 3-0 against the NFC East, including decisive wins over the Giants (29-10) and Eagles (37-19). Kenny Britt had a monster game (225 yards, 3 TD), one of the biggest receiving performances in years.

4. New England Patriots [3] — One of three one-loss teams, and I'm sure some people think it's sacrilege not to have them in the top three. But they were lucky to win their last two games, and they're incredibly one-dimensional. They can't run, and they don't play good defense. It's Tom Brady and special teams, with a dash of heads-up play and some plain luck. If the Chargers don't leave two balls sitting on the field, New England loses that game. It's not like the Patriots forced fumbles; Richard Goodman literally laid the ball on the field and walked away. I'm not saying the Pats didn't deserve to win — they earned the victory — but for a power ranking, where I'm evaluating how good a team really is, New England was not impressive this weekend. The Chargers gave them that game.

5. New York Giants [8] — The only NFC team with more than two wins in a row, they're top-three in both yards gained and yards allowed. They've injured a lot of quarterbacks, five in six games: Matt Moore, Jay Cutler, Todd Collins, Shaun Hill, and Tony Romo all left games against the Giants with injuries. The team's renaissance (following a 1-2 start) has been about running and defense, especially the pass rush. But announcers — and not just the MNF guys — can't stop talking about the quarterback. Look, it's time to stop sucking Eli Manning's, uh, toes. He threw 3 interceptions on Monday night. He leads the NFL in interceptions. He has more INTs than Brett Favre, more than Alex Smith, more than Jay Cutler and Jimmy Clausen combined.

Eli is the year-in, year-out front-runner in the QB excitement statistic: TDs + INTs. Eli inspired this formula at least four seasons ago, I think more than that, though I couldn't find the original article. This is not a particularly good statistic for QBs to rank highly; it usually goes to a good QB having a bad year. Throughout his career, Eli has almost always ranked among the top 10. Starting in 2005, his first year as full-time starter: 3rd, 3rd, t-8th, 12th, t-5th, 1st. The league leaders each season: Brett Favre, 2005 (20 TD, 29 INT); Rex Grossman (23 TD, 20 INT) and Jon Kitna (21 TD, 22 INT), 2006; Tom Brady (50 TD, 8 INT), 2007; Drew Brees (34 TD, 17 INT), 2008; Jay Cutler (27 TD, 26 INT), 2009.

QB Excitement, Current Top 5: Eli Manning (25), Drew Brees (24), Aaron Rodgers (21), Philip Rivers (19), tie (Tony Romo and Alex Smith, 18 each)

Bottom 5, minimum 120 att: Derek Anderson (8), Josh Freeman and Kevin Kolb (10), Mark Sanchez (11), tie (Matt Cassel and Matt Hasselbeck, 12)

6. Baltimore Ravens [4] — Ed Reed, in his first game of the season, forced a fumble and intercepted two passes. I guess he's in game shape. Joe Flacco, who had a miserable start to the season, put together his fifth solid game in a row, his second straight with a passer rating of at least 110. But Ray Rice, awesome in '09, hasn't come around the way fans expected him to. He's been fine, but nothing special, and his diminished involvement in the passing game is surprising. During one stretch at the end of the first half and beginning of the second, Baltimore scored 17 points in 1:12 of game time.

7. Indianapolis Colts [5] — Used the bye week to get unhealthy, losing about half the receiving corps. All-pro tight end Dallas Clark is out for the year, and Austin Collie, who entered the weekend second in the NFL in receptions, is expected to miss the next several games. Even backup Blair White is banged up, though he might be ready to go for Week 8. Fantasy players looking for help to get through the bye weeks, Mike Hart and White are interesting pickup ideas who could post some numbers depending on the health of the guys in front of them. Pierre Garçon, if he's available, is definitely a good add.

8. Atlanta Falcons [7] — Up 24-3 at halftime, they almost gave the game away after getting blanked 22-0 in the third quarter. Roddy White (11 rec, 201 yds, 2 TD) looks more and more like the best receiver in the NFL, but Michael Turner (121 yards, 2 TD) had a big game, as well, and White lost a fumble this weekend. Poor show by Atlanta's defense, allowing the Bengals to score a season-high 32 points. After opponents averaged just 14 points the first five weeks, the Falcons gave up more than 30 for the second week in a row. If they keep playing defense like that, this isn't a top-10 team.

9. Washington Redskins [11] — Positioning themselves for a playoff run based on tie-breakers. They're 0-2 against the AFC, but 4-1 in conference and 2-0 in the division. The much-maligned Albert Haynesworth had a very good game against Chicago, driving a blocker into Jay Cutler for a sack, and later leaping over a pile at the goal-line to stop Cutler on the controversial play that probably should have been ruled a Chicago touchdown. DeAngelo Hall intercepted 4 passes in the game, returning one 92 yards for a touchdown. In the 1960 and '61 seasons, Cardinals DB Jerry Norton actually had two 4-INT games. Washington should cut return man Brandon Banks. He's good for one serious mistake every game.

10. Miami Dolphins [9] — The Dolphins are 3-3, but their losses came against the Steelers, Jets, and Patriots, arguably the three best teams in the NFL. If Miami had eked out the heartbreaker against Pittsburgh, DB Chris Clemons would have been the star. Clemons was in on 9 tackles, including a sack, and forced 2 fumbles, one of them the controversial goal-line play that has sparked discussion of a rule overhaul. I don't believe Miami was robbed, but that game easily could have gone the other way.

11. Philadelphia Eagles [10] — Probably should have covered Kenny Britt. I hate to say this, because I love dogs and I think Michael Vick's crime against them was despicable, but I believe he's the right choice as Philadelphia's quarterback right now. Kevin Kolb obviously can play, and the Eagles can win games with him. But the offense just didn't offer anything against Tennessee this weekend. With DeSean Jackson sidelined, and facing a good defense, it was LeSean McCoy and not much else. Vick's athleticism forces defenses to compromise their coverage and opens up opportunities that otherwise might not exist, and Vick seems to do a better job of keeping his eye on the prize and taking shots downfield.

12. Kansas City Chiefs [12] — Overcame 92 penalty yards for an easy win against the overmatched Jaguars. Kansas City's wins have come against teams with a combined record of 8-20 (.286). The Chiefs lead the NFL in rushing. Jamaal Charles (489 yards, 6.0 average) and Thomas Jones (461, 4.7) are both on pace for 1,200-yard seasons.

13. Green Bay Packers [13] — Lost two more players to injured reserve, but they're poised to return defensive backs Al Harris and Atari Bigby, both of whom began the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. I wish the NFL kept a "holding penalties drawn" statistic, so we could tally how often guys like Clay Matthews III and Washington's Brian Orakpo make big plays for their teams, even when they don't actually make the play. Green Bay's last five games (2 wins, 3 losses) have all been decided by four points or less.

14. Minnesota Vikings [14] — "Tar-var-is! Tar-var-is!" That's what Minnesota fans should be chanting. Or maybe just "Jackson," since Tarvaris is sort of an unwieldy name to chant. In 2008, the Vikings went 11-5 and won the NFC North with Gus Frerotte and Jackson starting at quarterback. This team has Adrian Peterson and a good defense. Brett Favre is giving away games, and the Vikings have to prefer their chances with someone else under center. Favre's ankle is fractured in two places, and his holy consecutive start streak is in jeopardy. I think he'll sit. Favre wants more than anything else to be talked about, and to be celebrated, and if he ends the streak with something other than retirement, that will buy him a ton of fawning headlines, plus he can pre-emptively ward off a possible benching.

15. Houston Texans [17] — They rank fourth in offense, 32nd in defense. Houston plays at Indianapolis next Monday night, with a chance to sweep the Colts. This is the only team to lose to the Cowboys this season.

16. Seattle Seahawks [19] — Extraordinarily weak strength of schedule. The Seahawks are 4-2 (3-0 at home) against opponents with a collective record of 15-26 (.366), and that includes a couple of teams (4-3 Chicago, 3-3 Arizona) that are clearly worse than their record suggests. Seattle is probably the favorite to win the NFC West, which is a truly sad reflection on the NFC West. The Cardinals are an easy win, but this weekend's game was not all smooth sailing. The 'Hawks committed 10 penalties for 95 yards, scored only 1 TD in seven trips to the red zone, and converted just 33% of their third downs.

17. San Diego Chargers [20] — Antwan Applewhite, Donald Strickland, Steve Crosby, Norv Turner. Those are the guys we should be celebrating now, the ones who almost won Sunday's game for San Diego. Applewhite stuffed the fourth-down play that could have sealed the game for New England. Strickland delivered the block that allowed Richard Goodman to recover Kris Brown's onside kick. Crosby is the special teams coach who designed that play. I suspect that everyone who reads my column already knows who Turner is.

The Chargers have lost three in a row, and probably won't make the playoffs at this point, but they remind me a little of the '09 Jets, '08 Chargers, and '07 Giants. The Jets were 4-6, later 7-7, but finished the season strong and made a run to the AFC Championship Game. Two years ago, San Diego opened 4-8 before winning five in a row and knocking Indianapolis out of the playoffs. The '07 Giants were never in that much trouble — they rebounded nicely from an 0-2 start — but that's the outfit I'm really thinking about today. Facing a potent Patriots team, the Giants went out guns-a-blazing ... and lost. But they proved to themselves they could hang with the best team in the NFL, and when the two rematched a month later, New York earned the Lombardi Trophy. This year's Chargers probably won't make the playoffs, much less win the Super Bowl, but they gave New England a hell of a game on Sunday, and I wonder if it might not be the kick they needed.

18. Cleveland Browns [25] — On a day when third-string QB Colt McCoy went 9-of-16 for 74 yards, the defense earned a win against New Orleans. Scott Fujita had 10 solo tackles, a sack, and an interception, while 33-year-old, 265-pound David Bowens returned 2 interceptions for touchdowns. The offense still stinks. Tony Dungy suggested on Sunday that Peyton Hillis should go to the Pro Bowl. He's certainly having a nice season, but can we wait until he's played more than seven games to suggest someone who ranks 17th in rushing yards should make the trip to Hawaii?

19. New Orleans Saints [15] — Lost three of their last five. The loss this weekend was really about Drew Brees throwing four interceptions, including two returned for touchdowns. Apart from those four plays, the Saints were unspectacular, but not horrible. Reggie Bush is expected back next week, but he's not the player they've really been missing. Last season, Bush started 8 games, rushed for 390 yards, gained 335 receiving, scored 8 touchdowns, and lost 2 fumbles. That's not a high-impact player, the difference between a good team and a bad one. They miss Pierre Thomas more.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [24] — Committed 12 penalties, but Connor Barth connected on four field goals, including a 53-yarder in the third quarter, and they edged out an 18-17 win over the Rams. Josh Freeman ranks 22nd in passer rating (82.8), between Jay Cutler and Shaun Hill, and Tampa is 30th in the NFL in scoring. The Bucs are also last in the NFL in sacks (5). They've won three close games and lost a pair of blowouts (plus a 13-point win over Carolina that doesn't really fall into either category). Winning the close ones is great, but that includes an element of luck, and I'd feel better if they were really putting people away. Their losses have been decisive; the wins have not been.

21. St. Louis Rams [22] — Above-average defense, but the offense is still just Steven Jackson, who this weekend led the team in rushing (110) and receiving (35) yards. Jackson is now the all-time leading rusher for a franchise with immense tradition at running back. The Rams have won three in a row at home, but they're 0-3 on the road.

22. Dallas Cowboys [16] — Tony Romo fractured his left clavicle, and is probably out for at least six weeks, maybe the whole season. After leading 10-0 and 20-7, the Cowboys gave up 38 unanswered points and lost the game. How do you lose when you're +3 in turnovers? I guess you get out-gained by 243 yards, go 0-of-10 on third down, and lose time of possession by 15 minutes. This is not the Chargers, giving away a game they could have won or getting bad breaks and losing a close one to a strong opponent. If luck had treated the Giants and Cowboys equally this week, Dallas would have lost by at least 20 points. Biggest problems: pass defense, including an inconsistent rush that doesn't even seem to exist outside of DeMarcus Ware, and offensive play selection. Run the ball. Run the ball. Seriously, run the ball.

23. Chicago Bears [21] — In the last year and a half, how many games has Jay Cutler given away? This was his eighth multi-interception game as a Bear. Dan Patrick on Chicago's underwhelming receiving corps and DeAngelo Hall's four-INT day: "Jay Cutler has finally found his go-to guy." If Hall was a wide receiver, he would have had a huge fantasy day this weekend, with 4 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. In PPR leagues, that's 19 points. This season, the Bears have converted 15 third downs and given up 31 sacks. Chicago ranks 30th in total offense.

24. Oakland Raiders [30] — Following this week's rout of the Broncos, Oakland actually ranks fifth in the NFL in points per game. Last year, the Raiders placed 31st in the same category. Darren McFadden led the charge, with 165 rushing yards and 4 TDs, but it's hard to overstate the dominance of a 59-14 win, out-gaining the opponent 508-240. If Mike Shanahan were dead, he would be turning in his grave: this was the third year in a row the Raiders have won in Denver.

25. Denver Broncos [18] — Embarrassing loss against their biggest rival dropped the Broncos to 2-5, including three losses in a row. Denver is 30th in run defense and dead last in rushing offense. The team has to travel overseas this week for a game against the 49ers in Wembley Stadium. At least this year we don't have to worry about potential playoff teams being affected by the trip across the Atlantic.

26. Detroit Lions [26] — Five close losses and a 38-point win. The Lions are 0-4 on the road, but they have six home games remaining. There's a good chance they'll upset Washington in Week 8. This team is on the way up. You heard it here first: the Lions will be the Chiefs of 2011.

27. Cincinnati Bengals [23] — Missing a lot of defensive personnel for their game with Atlanta, and it showed. Roddy White proclaimed that he didn't know the names of Cincinnati's DBs, but he was going to burn them, and he backed it up. The Bengals actually have a pair of very good cornerbacks, Johnathon Joseph and Leon Hall. Joseph missed the game with an injury, and Hall intercepted a pass but didn't do much else. Cincinnati has lost three straight. Last year, this team made the playoffs relying on its run game and defense. This year, Carson Palmer is averaging 41 pass attempts per game, compared to 29 last season. I know they're excited about the receivers, and Terrell Owens has exceeded expectations, but why depart so radically from a strategy that was successful? The Bengals have a brutal schedule the next few weeks, and will be lucky to make it to mid-November with a record of 3-6.

28. Jacksonville Jaguars [27] — Fourth 20-point loss of the season. Six opponents in a row have scored at least 26 points against them. The Jaguars are worst in the NFL in point differential (-79) and turnover margin (-10). This is a generous ranking.

29. Carolina Panthers [31] — Matt Moore played well, John Kasay had a great game, and they got their first win of the season. Kasay connected on two long field goals (47 and 55 yards), plus the game-winner with :43 left. DeAngelo Williams reportedly is day-to-day, so keep an eye on Jonathan Stewart as the man getting carries in his place.

30. San Francisco 49ers [29] — Alex Smith injured his shoulder on Sunday, and it's unclear who will start at quarterback in Week 8. The 49ers have the worst record in the NFC (1-6), and they're about to lose a home game — London isn't exactly a hotbed of rabid Niners fans. Frank Gore is having a terrific season; no one else on the team is.

31. Arizona Cardinals [28] — Lost five turnovers against Seattle, including four fumbles. The defense actually made some plays, including 5 sacks, but you can't win when you're giving the ball away like that. It's incredible how much this team misses Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin. Alan Branch had 2 sacks and a forced fumble this weekend.

32. Buffalo Bills [32] — Sunday afternoon, I got stuck with the three Bs: Baltimore, Buffalo, and Brennaman. My local CBS affiliate, for reasons completely beyond my understanding, chose to show Ravens/Bills. I'm pretty sure there are more Steeler fans than Raven fans where I live, but heaven forbid we get a hugely important game like Pittsburgh/Miami rather than an expected blowout involving the worst team in the league (Buffalo) and the most boring, unwatchable good team (Baltimore). FOX showed Washington/Chicago, with Thom Brennaman behind the mic. He actually was far better than usual this week, but I spend the whole first month of the season looking forward to the MLB playoffs, when I won't have to tolerate Joe Buck, and they replace him with the only play-by-play man worse. Buck is a corporate shill and a prick, but at least he's basically competent, or can be when he wants to. Brennaman usually has no idea what's going on.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 7:03 PM | Comments (4)

Is the Tennis Season Too Long?

I'm convinced. The tennis season is way too long. Just like basketball, hockey, and baseball (the World Series hasn't even started yet and it's the end of October) tennis has become just another drawn out non-spectacle.

Given the schedule changes made by the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour, the women's season is a bit shorter. Maybe not enough. While I am thrilled beyond belief that Caroline Wozniacki will end the season as the world's number one, and that Kim Clijsters has again won the U.S. Open, the women's tour is limping to the season ending championships. Serena Williams is out for the rest of the season, and most of the women's field is exhausted. The 2010 Open looked more like a medical tape and flex bandage fashion show than anything else.

The season-ending WTA Championships in Doha, Qatar are just one week away. It is clear that, for the most part, no one probably knows that other than the die-hard women's tennis fan. Even more so is the Commonwealth Bank Tournament of Champions, the tournament specifically setup as a second-tier playoff to showcase the up-and-coming stars. That will begin in November.

I was fortunate to be able to watch live via satellite the Roger Federer/Novak Djokovic match, as well as Andy Murray's straight set victory over Federer in the final of the ATP Masters tournament in Beijing. Here you had three of the top four men playing until the end of the tournament, yet even the enthusiastic Chinese crowd could not fill up the stadium, nor make enough noise on any night. The Federer/Djokovic match had even more competition, as the NBA preseason was being played in Beijing, as well, and at the same time. There was much more coverage of the Nets/Rockets game both here and in Asia, and to top it off, the basketball arena was packed. Even in the emerging market that is Asia, tennis could not compete.

Add to all of this the extension of the baseball season and the beginning of the heart of the American football season, throw in a little hockey, and also NCAA basketball and football, and tennis just gets lost in the mix. How can any sport compete with important college football games on Saturday and professional football games on Sunday? How can the WTA Tour Championships and Tournament of Champions even begin to compete with the World Series? The ATP World Tour Finals will conclude on Thanksgiving weekend.

I know, tennis is a world sport. True, but the majority of the big money in tennis still comes from the American economy and U.S. television revenue. Would you get up at 6 AM on Thanksgiving Day to watch Francesca Schiavone play Vera Zvonareva? Thought so.

The tennis year used to be nice and compact. The season would begin with the Australian and Malaysian tour, concluding with the Aussie Open. Then a short break, and on to Europe for the clay court season, its highlight, of course, being the red clay at Roland Garros. Then the summer grass court season, beginning in Queens Club, quickly jumping to Wimbledon, then off to the U.S. with the American summer tour, ending at the U.S. Open. After that, the season would be done with the exception of exhibitions, which many players did for extra cash in the offseason and also acted as major public relations with the local fans. The three-month gap with almost no tennis actually made you want to see it more.

The U.S. Open is the perfect culmination of the tennis season. It is one of the four major tournaments. It is played in the best city on earth. It happens in a time of year where there are few, if any, other major sporting events that coincide. The weather is usually still tennis-friendly, and there is a finality to the end of the tournament. The extension of the tennis season into late November is akin to the Pro Bowl being played after the Super Bowl. Basically, no one really cares because the season for them ended with the champion being crowned.

Tennis is too long. The players are burning themselves up and limp into the final month of the tournament year. They travel to too many places at the end of the year that are not media-friendly for the American or European fans who comprise most of the base. There are too many competing major sports and sporting events that consume all the media time after the summer ends.

It's time professional tennis really took a look at when the season is over. For me, I prefer it to end in the Big Apple and mot end with a big piece of apple pie to go with my turkey.

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 11:56 AM | Comments (0)

October 25, 2010

Baseball No Longer Rules October

If you hadn't noticed before now, it's time you do: after more than century of dominance in the American sporting marketplace, baseball is no longer king.

I hate to say this right before the World Series, but think about it. Baseball was once the ultimate American sport. Ty Cobb. Babe Ruth. Mickey Mantle. Jackie Robinson. Hank Aaron. Ted Williams. Willie Mays. If you held a fantasy draft of historical stars from any sport, baseball would dominate.

But something crazy happened last week. On Monday, October 18, a horrible Week 6 football game between Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars trounced the ratings for a riveting Game 3 of the ALCS between the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees.

What made this development so shocking isn't just playoffs vs. regular season, but the fact baseball had so many advantages:

1. Better markets in Dallas and New York vs. Jacksonville and Nashville.

2. It was Game 3 of the ALCS, putting the most dominant franchise in baseball history against a team in the Rangers trying to make their first World Series ever against a regular season football game between two NFL teams who have little chance of making the Super Bowl.

3. For most of the football game, Kerry Collins and Trent Edwards were the participating quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the baseball game featured a dominant starting pitching match-up between Cliff Lee (most dominant active postseason pitcher) and Andy Pettitte (most post-season wins and IP of any pitcher ever).

4. It was the YANKEES, for Christ's sake!

Honestly, when baseball can't win that battle, it's time to admit they're now a clear second fiddle on the American sports landscape. It's not quite as bad as being the thoroughly unlikeable NBA or only-way-you-like-it-is-if-you-grew-up-with-it NHL, but still. The king has fallen, and his replacement plays on Sundays.

Some of the issue for baseball is just inherent to the game. Baseball is slower and more methodical, while football is more sudden and violent. In the American culture where conflict is at the core of our entertainment, football is right on message.

But it's not just the difference in the games that has caused baseball to fall behind. There have been a series of self-inflicted wounds by a baseball culture that is too focused on "purity" and "history" to adjust to a changing marketplace. Why is there no instant replay? Because they didn't have one 50 years ago. You know what else they didn't have 50 years ago? HD cameras that make instant replay quick and easy.

And this is nothing new. Jackie Robinson broke the baseball color barrier in 1947. The history of blacks in the NFL dates back to the 1920s. Think about all the hullabaloo when baseball changed to the division structure and added a wild card. You would have thought Bud Selig was using the bible as toilet paper the way some elitists (Bob Costas) reacted.

One of the great things about baseball, its tradition, has become an albatross around its neck. The lack of replay is certainly the most prominent of the progress vs. tradition debates, but there are many more. The length of games could be greatly curtailed if baseball enforced a pitch clock and eliminated the ability of batters to step out of the box if the pitcher takes a few extra seconds on the mounds. Watch enough games and you'll see full minutes go by without a pitch being thrown. That's just not going to cut it in today's sporting marketplace.

Another major issue for baseball is the branding of its players. One of the greatest marketing tools the NFL and NBA have is the NCAA. By eliminating the gap between college athletics and the pros, the best rookies each year already have a built-in following before their first NFL training camp. That's why the NFL draft is such a big deal. We know these guys and we want them (or don't want them) on our teams.

With baseball, the exact opposite is true. You've got college baseball, high school baseball, and an influx of international talent. And not only do we not know who most of these guys are, but we also know teams aren't just picking the best players. It's about signability. Can you imagine a football agent wielding the same kind of power over the NFL draft that Scott Boras does over the MLB draft? The lack of a hard slotting system in baseball is a huge problem.

Once these players get into the system, they're still a million miles from the consciousness of the Big League fans. I'm a Cardinals fan and I couldn't tell you the first thing about the roster for the Class A Quad City River Bandits last year. In pure marketing terms, baseball does a horrible job of branding its next generation of stars, which decreases the level of emotional attachment with fans. The fact 48 percent of minor league players under contract were born outside of the United States doesn't help much either (per 2010 Racial and Gender Report Card put out by the University of Central Florida College of Business Administration).

Speaking of the racial make-up of baseball, the lack of African-American stars is killing baseball. According to the same 2010 Racial and Gender Report Card, African-Americans make up just 9 percent of the game, compared to 60 percent white and 28 percent international. There are no black owners. There were no black CEOs or Presidents in 2009 and in 2010. There are only three black GMs and two managers (Ron Washington and Dusty Baker). Of the 26 currently employed managers, 21 are white (and 17 of the 21 are over age 50).

In 2010 America, you cannot lay claim to being the national pastime when your ranks are woefully unrepresentative of a major demographic of the country. You cannot lay claim to be the national pastime when you refuse to use technology to fix your mistakes (or have two leagues playing by different rules, for that matter). And you cannot lay claim to being the national pastime when your draft is an auction of 17-year-olds with an ego the size of Texas (Bryce Harper).

And so it shall come to pass that next Sunday, Game 4 of the World Series, it will lose in the rankings to the NFL game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints. And if there's a Game 5 on Monday, it will lose to Colts/Texans.

And if Bud Selig ever wants to reclaim the top step on the American sports hierarchy, he's going to have to reinvent a sport that has steadfastly refused to adapt to its changing audience.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 10:56 PM | Comments (2)

A Lovely Season on the Plains

Less than two years ago, Auburn coach Gene Chizik was struggling through a 2-10 season at Iowa State in which his only wins came against South Dakota State and Kent State. Auburn quarterback Cam Newton was at Florida, being redshirted as the third-string QB behind Tim Tebow and John Brantley. Auburn offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn was at Tulsa, having more success in coordinating one of that season's best offenses, but was still at a Conference USA school after a seemingly meteoric one-year rise from high school coach to nationally-known college assistant at Arkansas.

All three have come together to give tradition-rich Auburn a golden chance to win its first undisputed national championship.

When Chizik was hired, many were outraged that Turner Gill was not. A sizeable portion of those alleged the Auburn administration of being racist for not hiring the black Gill, coming off of an excellent season at undermanned Buffalo. Now, with Gill's Kansas team getting eviscerated on a regular basis, and Auburn 8-0 for the first time in six years, no one would doubt that the right decision was made in retrospect.

Later in that 2008 season, Newton was arrested for stealing a laptop and eventually left Florida after charges were dropped. If Urban Meyer did not try to talk Newton into staying, it was by far the worst call of Meyer's tenure in Gainesville. Goodness knows that players have stayed at Florida for allegedly doing much worse. Added to Malzahn's previous tenure in the SEC, and one would not have to search long to see where added motivation could come into play with the leaders of these 2010 Tigers.

In Auburn's win over previously unbeaten LSU Saturday, their quarterback went 10-of-16 for 86 yards, a pedestrian day by the air and below Newton's average for the year. Newton more than made up for it on the ground, rushing for 217 yards and 2 touchdowns against a team that was only allowing 86 yards rushing per game before Saturday. Auburn totaled an incredible 440 on the ground Saturday, laying waste to an LSU defense that was the backbone of its 7-0 start.

Eight games into his career as a starter, new superlatives for Newton's play are already becoming hard to find. It seems unbelievable to think that Newton was not even on a Division I roster a year ago, but at Blinn College in Brenham, Texas. Newton did lead his team to the JUCO national championship, and was widely regarded as the best player in that level. The JUCO title and best player accolades now look as if they were mere foreshadowing for what was to come this year.

The Heisman Trophy is often not given out to the true most outstanding player in college football, as the award prescribes it to be, but rather to the most outstanding player on a top team. Newton looks like he may fit both categories.

It's convenient to compare Newton to the person he desperately wanted to succeed at Florida, Tebow. Both are phenomenal runners and excellent leaders. However, if Tebow was the fullback playing at quarterback, then Newton is the shifty running back who plays quarterback. Newton, at least 10 times a game, will run straight ahead on a read option, powerfully barreling forward at Tebow used to do at Florida. For Newton, once the initial contact is made, and the 6-6 player looks like someone might have a chance at tackling him, he can then pickup speed, accelerate and slice through defenses in a way that Tebow's brute force did not allow for.

No better play exemplified this than the signature play of Saturday's contest, a first down with about 11 minutes left in the third quarter in a 10-10 game Auburn just over midfield. Newton faked a handoff on the read, went straight ahead and had a path paved for him by his underrated offensive line. Newton hit the hole like a top pro running back, and immediately had gained about 10 yards. If the play were to have stopped there, it would have been a solid gain that Newton makes look easy several times a game.

He then cut to the right after getting past his blockers with such amazing lateral quickness that it made one LSU player hopelessly lunge for him and come up with nary a grab of the jersey. Newton broke a tackle and then cut back inside, made another man miss, and then was off to the races. The only LSU Tiger with a hope can catching Newton at that point was All-American corner Patrick Peterson, who caught the QB coming from a beneficial tackling angle, but was unable to bring down the charging gazelle that was Newton.

The run broke Pat Sullivan's long-standing school record of 26 combined touchdowns in a single season and helped to break the SEC record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a single season. Two single season records that had each stood for more than 40 years were broken in just eight games by Newton.

Newton was far from the only Auburn player to step up Saturday. Michael Dyer somehow quietly ran for 100 yards on 15 carries, and Onterio McCaleb had the 70-yard game-winning touchdown with five minutes left. On Auburn's slightly maligned defense, defensive lineman Nick Fairley had 2.5 sacks and caused an amazing amount of havoc for LSU QB Jarrett Lee on the Bayou Bengals' last drive.

Even though the game was not over until the last couple minutes, and the score tied until a little before that, it was a more lopsided contest than the score implies. LSU was out-gained by more than two-to-one, scored one of its touchdowns on a trick play. Only three LSU drives had any real meat to them, its other two scoring drives and the opening LSU series of the game ended by an interception. For the second half, with the exception of that Jordan Jefferson to Spencer Ware to Ruben Randle double pass, LSU was well and truly bottled up in the final two quarters.

The question that underlies any big win by an undefeated team at this point of the season is, "Can they stay undefeated?" Auburn has four games remaining. The first three come at Ole Miss, and home games with Chattanooga and Georgia. All three should be wins to get the Tigers to 11-0, before what is shaping up as one of the most important Iron Bowl showdowns in years.

Unlike the last two years, the SEC Championship Game will not be a de-facto national semifinal game. The Eastern Division is already guaranteed to have a two-loss champion. It seems likely that the East champion will have three conference losses. With the East so bad, that national semifinal game may take place in the Iron Bowl, if 10-1 Alabama is to face 11-0 Auburn at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Alabama still has to play at LSU, so winning out until the regular season finale doesn't look like as much of a sure bet as it does with Auburn.

In the first BCS standings, Auburn was ranked behind three other undefeated teams, which can't give fans on the Plains good memories of 2004 when a 13-0 Auburn was left out of that year's title game. With the SEC having won four straight national titles and credibility with the pollsters, a potentially undefeated Auburn should have nothing to worry about if it keeps winning.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 6:53 PM | Comments (0)

October 23, 2010

2010 Offseason Will Be Tough For Yanks

Two seasons ago, the Yankees missed the playoffs for the first — and last — time this decade. They went into the offseason with a sense of urgency — a sense that holds none of the connoted nerves for Yankees fans, considering they always have the financial power to get the job done.

And they did.

The Yankees signed three of the top free agents to long term deals. CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira were all Yankees. They would go on to win the World Series.

After accomplishing the ultimate goal, the Yankees sought out to polish up the necessary pieces in the 2009 offseason and add in some smaller pieces that they thought could help their team repeat. Javier Vazquez, Lance Berkman, and other small pieces were now Yankees.

These two situations are normal for Yankees fans. New York is always going to be in the bidding for the top free agents, and they will always look for ways to improve their team. However, in the 2010 offseason, the Yankees are going to enter some unfamiliar water; and it will be interesting — and essential — to see how it is handled.

Why is it going to be different? Among all the normal acquisitions, the Yankees are going to be dealing with players who have been essential to their past, but may not be too important in the future. Additionally, they will be negotiating with players who will hopefully be replacing the players who were important in the past.

It all starts with Derek Jeter. Jeter, 36, has been a Yankee his entire life, and is nearing 3,000 hits. He will be a Yankee next season, nobody doubts that. But the question looms over the amount and the duration. It is expected to be a smooth process — no other team is in the mix, and the Yankees need Jeter as a marketing piece — but look back in your memory and try to think of a time when an offseason move went smoothly for the Yankees, without any bumps along the way. Difficult, right?

Then there is Andy Pettitte. At 38, and another member of the "core four," Pettitte is statistically and historically set to pitch for another few years. However, he ponders over retirement nearly every offseason in recent memory and he will surely consider it this offseason, as well. The Yankees will be happy to wait for his decision, but it will not help to have yet another possible tough decision looming over the their heads.

The last member of the "core four" to be a free agent this offseason is Mariano Rivera. Rivera, 40, doesn't seem to have any problems on the mound. Although he has had spots where he looked off, he is generally pitching at his norm. Two seasons ago, he hinted that this would be his last season. However, if he can still pitch, there will be no reason for him to hang it up so suddenly. Again, another tough decision will wander in the minds of the Yankees' front office.

Then the youngsters come into play. Boone Logan, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain, all aged 25 or younger, will be eligible for arbitration for the first time in their career (except Logan who will be eligible for the second time in his career). Arbitration is always a messy process, and the Yankees will thus avoid attending the hearing by trying to work out a contract. However, these pitchers, all essential to the Yankees' future, have never dealt with the Yankees before in a financial setting. We have no idea if their egos will take over. If such is the case, we could be in for a very, very messy process.

Lance Berkman will also present a tough decision. After putting on a show in the early rounds of the playoffs, the Yankees have realized how valuable he can he. He has a club option for 2011, and the Yankees will need to decide which direction they are moving in.

After that, it will be relatively easy for the Yankees. Small pieces such as Vazquez, Austin Kearns, and Marcus Thames will become free agents. The Yankees will simply need to make yet another decision on all three of them. The good news is that there will be no serious repercussions.

And then, of course, come the big free agents. The Yankees are expected to go after Cliff Lee. Don't expect that to be an easy process, with many other teams expected to bid, as well. Furthermore, the Yankees have expressed varying interests in Carl Crawford, who will also be targeted by many teams. These decisions, however, are normal for the Yankees.

Just like every offseason, the Yankees will look to improve their team. However, for a change, the Yankees are going to be faced with many, many decisions that will induce crucial effects on the future success of the Yankees on, and off, the field. The Yankees love winning, but as we all know, winning has its costs.

Posted by Jess Coleman at 5:29 PM | Comments (0)

October 21, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 7

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Cincinnati @ Atlanta (-5)

The Falcons return home to the Georgia Dome, hoping to bounce back from a 31-17 defeat in Philadelphia, a game in which the Eagles piled up 474 yards of offense, including 326 and 3 touchdowns through the air. The Falcons defense will have to be much better against the visiting Bengals, fresh off a bye week and eager to reclaim their status as a legitimate playoff hopeful.

"I understand Chad Ochocinco plans to raise his game with more trash talk," said Mike Smith. "I guess that means his mouth will be the only thing that's open.

But it would be foolish to discount the abilities of Ochocinco and his counterpart, Terrell Owens. Call me foolish, then. But seriously, you have to be aware of their talent and their eccentricities, and that makes it doubly tough on a coach. I think Charlie Daniels said it best when he sang 'Aww hell's broke loose in Georgia.' If we win, to heck with the shiny fiddle made of gold, we'll still be on top in the NFC South."

"Smith thinks he's got it tough as an opposing coach dealing with Owens and Ochocinco?" said Marvin Lewis. "That's nothing compared to what I deal with as their head coach. I'm like a circus ringmaster — I have to monitor those clowns 24-7.

As head coach, I have to take account of those two. What that means is I have to take their Twitter accounts and disable them. I'm baffled by Twitter's popularity. 140 characters? I have my hands full with two."

Carson Palmer will look to strike downfield against a Falcons secondary missing headhunting bozo Dunta Robinson, who, like the Steelers' James Harrison, knocked out two guys last Sunday. Palmer finds Ochocinco for a 7-yard TD pass, and the fun-loving Ocho teams up with Owens to celebrate by removing their headgear and banging them together. Thus, the "helmet-to-helmet' celebration, which, oddly enough, is not penalized.

Ultimately, the Bengals will win with their ground game, as Cedric Benson's 118-yard, 27-carry day leads Cincy to the win.

Bengals win, 24-20.

Buffalo @ Baltimore (-13)

The Ravens fell in overtime, 23-20, in New England last Sunday, a loss that dropped them out of first in the AFC North. Now 4-2, Baltimore looks to regain their swagger against the struggling Bills.

"If Stella got her groove back," said John Harbaugh, "and did so without the presence of Ed Reed, then we should have no problem reclaiming our groove with Reed. As you know, Ed's been on the physically-unable-to-perform list after offseason hip surgery. Upon his return, he can proudly proclaim to be from 'the 'PUP.' Nobody puts 'the U' in 'PUP' quite like Ed.

Now Ed gives us a playmaker in our defensive backfield, something we've been missing all year. He adds another dimension to this defense, and always seems to be in the right place at the right time, except for those times when he's blindsided by Hines Ward.

Against the Bills, we plan to pressure Ryan Fitzpatrick with our front four, and allow Ed to read the quarterback and react to the ball. Fitzpatrick is an Ivy Leaguer, but I imagine the only intelligence he'll manage on Sunday is when he picks himself up off the ground and says 'That smarts!'"

The Bills are 0-5 and coming off a bye week, so, at the very least, they should be well-rested when they face the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Buffalo has struggled mightily on defense, surrendering an average of 32 points per game.

"In the darkest of hours," said Chan Gailey, "there is light at the end of the tunnel. At least for the team known as the 'Chilean Miners.' Now, our tunnel ends with daylight, as well. Unfortunately, it's daylight on the playing field at M&T Bank Stadium, where the Ravens will undoubtedly be playing angry after a loss.

Now, the Carolina Panthers are also 0-5, so we're not alone in our misery. I myself may soon have company; should Wade Phillips lose his job, he'll join me and others in the fraternity of 'former Dallas head coaches.'"

Joe Flacco throws for 251 yards and a score, and the Baltimore defense sacks Fitzpatrick 5 times and forces 4 Buffalo turnovers.

Ravens win, 30-10.

San Francisco @ Carolina (+3)

After last week's 17-9 victory over the Raiders, San Francisco is in the win column, 1-5 in the NFC West. Those elusive wins are hard to come by. So hard that the 49ers will have to travel clear across the country to get their next one. That's assuming the 49ers win at Bank of America Stadium, where the only teeth shown by the Panthers are on their helmets.

"In San Fran," said Mike Singletary, "they were calling the Raider game a 'win ore else' game. And we won, so the 'else' doesn't apply. If it did, I would be elsewhere.

But we won't take the winless Panthers lightly. On the contrary, we have great respect for winless teams. After all, we were one, and we certainly don't want to forget our roots.

Despite our 1-5 record, we're right back in the NFC West race. The division of the West is much like the region of the West, circa the early 1800s — it's unsettled. Division and conference wins are likely to be imperative in deciding the division winner, especially if all four teams end the season at 7-9. That's a huge 'if.'"

Panthers head coach John Fox faces a dilemma similar to the one Eagles head coach Andy Reid faces: choosing a starting quarterback. Unfortunately, his choices are limited to Jimmy Clausen and Matt Moore, and not Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb.

"Moore and Clausen are far from lottery picks," said Fox. "That is, until I personalize two ping pong balls, place them in a cylindrical basket, give it a few spins, and choose my starter. Hence, my starter becomes a lottery pick. And the starter is ... Matt Moore, No. 1 lottery pick."

Moore starts, and his first pass, a screen to DeAngelo Williams, goes for a 75-yard touchdown. Carolina controls the game on the ground, and unleash a rested defense on Alex Smith.

Carolina wins, 26-17.

Washington @ Chicago (-3)

The Redskins dropped out of a tie for first in the NFC East after last Sunday's 27-24 loss to the visiting Colts, a loss in which the 'Skins certainly had their chances to win. An intriguing matchup in Chicago awaits, as Donovan McNabb returns to his hometown, and Mike Shanahan faces Jay Cutler, who played under Shanahan for two years in Denver.

"I've certainly got the book on Cutler," said Shanahan. "As last week's 17-of-39 passing day for Cutler would indicate, that book is incomplete. And, as Cutler's subpar progressions show, it's 'not a good read.'

But, let's not write off Cutler just yet. Lesser quarterbacks, talent-wise, have led the Bears to Super Bowls before. That's not to say Cutler is better than Rex Grossman, or Jim McMahon, for that matter. Let's just say if Cutler tried to moon a helicopter, he'd miss. Honestly, though, I like our prospects against the Bears. Cutler gives me a better chance to win when he's on the opposing team."

The 'Skins are 3-3, and sport a defense that surrenders an average of 420 yards per game, worst in the league. In last week's 27-24 loss to the Colts, Washington gave up 170 yards on the ground to the Colts, who previously ranked near the bottom in rushing.

"Albert Haynesworth could really help this team on the defensive line," said McNabb. "He can really fill the middle. No, I'm not referring to his eating habits, but to his skills in the 3-4 defense. I'm not sure why Albert's so reluctant to adopt the 3-4 defense. He's got 21 million reasons to 'buy in' to the scheme. Maybe such huge sums of money have left him averse to 'change.'"

The Redskins load the box and force the Bears to throw. Cutler quakes in the face of numerous blitzes, and plays right into Washington's hands, literally, by throwing three interceptions.

McNabb throws for 2 touchdowns, and the Redskins win, 24-21.

Pittsburgh @ Miami (+3)

Ben Roethlisberger's triumphant return to the Steelers was an arousing success, as the formerly-suspended signal caller threw for 257 yards and 3 touchdowns, overshadowing signs of rust with displays of brilliance. Pittsburgh, now 4-1 and atop the AFC North, heads to Miami to face the 3-2 Dolphins.

"I claim to be a changed man," Roethlisberger said, "but apparently I'm back to being my old self. If I truly am a changed man, then that means my right arm isn't the only part of me that's 'rusty.'

With 3 touchdown passes, I singlehandedly doubled our TD pass output. That's called 'multiplication.' James Harrison, on the other hand, specializes in 'subtraction.' He KO'ed two Cleveland players last Sunday with head butts that surely made Andre the Giant spin in his grave. There haven't been any 'blackouts' at Heinz Field lately, but last week, we saw two 'Brown-outs."

Miami won in Green Bay last week, 23-20 in overtime, improving their record to 2-0 against teams currently or formerly quarterbacked by Brett Favre. The 'Fins will have to execute in all phases to beat the Steelers, with their aggressive defense and improving offense.

"I'll have this team ready for the Steelers," said Tony Sparano. "The question is, will this city be ready for them. We're winless at home, and that has to change. We'll need this city to give it's all, and that includes the fans at the game, the people watching at home, as well as the people that keep this city moving. But mostly, we'll need the owners of Miami's world class nightclubs to do their part, and promote Sunday as 'Ladies' Lock-up,' in honor of Roethlisberger."

Harrison, who entertained the silly and selfish notion of retirement, is mercilessly booed by the Dolphins Stadium fans. Luckily, he "comes out of it" and plays like a man possessed.

Roethlisberger gets an earful from the Miami faithful, but, like the word "no," it goes in one ear hole and out the other.

Steelers win, 20-13.

Philadelphia @ Tennessee (-3)

The Eagles travel to LP Field to face the 4-2 Titans, and Andy Reid has already named a starter at quarterback. Kevin Kolb, after a 326-yard, 3-touchdown day against Atlanta, will start, while Michael Vick nurses sore ribs.

"Can I get that in writing?" said Kolb. "Look, I'm no fool. I realize that had I played poorly against the Falcons, Coach Reid would right now be praising Vick's amazing recuperative powers.

But Coach is in an enviable position having two capable quarterbacks. Heck, if the Phillies can have a three-man rotation, what's wrong with the Eagles utilizing a two-man rotation?"

Vince Young sprained his knee early in the Titans 30-3 win in Jacksonville on Monday night. Kerry Collins took over, and played near flawlessly, completing 11-of-16 passes for 110 yards and 1 touchdown. Collins will start Sunday as the Titans go for their third straight win.

"I guess the much-anticipated Vick versus Young showdown may never materialize," said Collins. "Instead, fans could get the unanticipated Kolb versus Collins matchup. Who wants to see that? I guess that's why they're having 'black outs' in Nashville and Philadelphia. This game turned 'white' faster than Michael Jackson."

Kolb will be without dynamic wideout DeSean Jackson, out with a concussion, a casualty of the NFL's "cheap shot" Sunday. Philly will move the ball, but the Titans red zone defense will keep it close until Chris Johnson explodes in the fourth quarter for 2 scores.

Tennessee wins, 26-20.

St. Louis @ Tampa Bay (-1)

The Rams rebounded from Week 5's 44-6 loss to the Lions with a shocking 20-17 win over the Chargers, who boasted the league's top-rated offense. The Rams sacked Philip Rivers 7 times, and will need to pressure Tampa's Josh Freeman in that same manner.

"The Chargers were expecting to come here and have their way with us," said Steve Spagnuolo. "They left with a loss, and an 0-4 record on the road. It just goes to show that there's only one road warrior in this building, and that's linebacker James Laurinaitis, son of professional wrestling legend Road Warrior Animal. Laurinaitis is impressive, and easily impressed, I might add, especially by our running game. No matter the gain, Laurinaitis, after every Ram carry, growls enthusiastically 'What a rush!'

Anyway, when that kid is up for a contract renewal, I expect some pretty intense negotiations with his manager, Precious Paul Ellering.

But defense is back in St. Louis. Now when I stop and ask people on the street to name a Rams defender, they still ask 'who are you?,' but they can, in fact, name a Rams defender. Never mind that 'Jack Youngblood' is the name fans most often cite. That's still progress."

The upstart Bucs came crashing back down to earth, losing 31-6 to the Saints, overwhelmed by the potent New Orleans offense. Now the Bucs, like the Rams, need a win to maintain positioning in their respective divisions.

"We're not as good as we thought we were," said Raheem Morris. "Obviously, the pirate ship in the end zone didn't intimidate New Orleans the least bit. I hear those cocky Saints were referring to it as the 'Good Ship Bubble Pop' after the game. Now, at times, we did look as helpless as boat people."

Tampa recovers, and Josh Freeman scores on a late bootleg to give the Bucs a 26-21 win.

Cleveland @ New Orleans (-14)

The Saints returned to form last Sunday, overwhelming the Buccaneers 31-6 in Tampa to pull into a tie in the NFC South lead with Atlanta, who lost in Philadelphia. Drew Brees tossed 3 touchdown passes, and the Saints regained the look of a Super Bowl champion.

"You've probably heard that my wife and I are soliciting names for our newborn son," Brees said. "We've got tons of suggestions from fans, and when this kid is old enough, he'll be in for the shock of his life when we tell him he was 'conceived by a stranger.' After a few minutes of confusion, we'll reveal that it was his name that was conceived by a stranger. Then we'll tell him he just got 'Punk'd.'"

The Browns lost a physical 28-10 battle to the Steelers in Pittsburgh, in a game marked by two James Harrison hits that knocked out Joshua Cribbs and Mohamed Massaquoi. But Colt McCoy showed the poise of a grizzled rookie, playing well in the face of danger.

"I'm just thankful I survived being sacked by James Harrison," McCoy said. "He claims he only intends to hurt, not injure, opponents. Obviously, Harrison's honesty is exceeded only by his compassion.

Harrison puts the 'ass' in 'assassin.' Hence, you can call his finishing maneuver the 'head-butt.'"

The Saints defense gets physical against the injury-depleted Browns, although they politely abstain from concussion-inducing, helmet-to-helmet hits, which, in New Orleans, is called getting "Super-domed."

Brees throws for two scores and the Saints win, 34-17.

Jacksonville @ Kansas City (-6½)

After blowing a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead in Houston, the Chiefs dropped a 35-31 decision to the Texans that derailed a 4-1 start and what would have been a comfortable three-game cushion in the loss column in the AFC West. Now Kansas City looks to end their two-game skid with a win over the Jaguars at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs are 2-0.

"We didn't close the deal," said Todd Haley. "And that's taken some of the luster and shine from our fast start, which is to be expected when you don't 'finish.'

Of course, the referees didn't help. The pass interference call on Brandon Flowers was a 'blooming' disgrace. It's amazing what the officials see that's not there, and what they don't see that's there."

The Jags may be without David Garrard, who suffered a concussion in Monday night's loss to the Titans. If Garrard can't play, Trent Edwards will get the call.

"We don't lose a thing with Edwards in," said Jack Del Rio, "except games."

Chiefs win, 24-13.

Arizona @ Seattle (-3½)

Yes, it's true. The winner of the Cardinals/Seahawks contest assumes sole possession of the NFC West, while the loser falls to .500 and the consolation of knowing that .500, when all is said and done, will probably be good enough to win the NFC West.

"Don't sleep on teams in the West," said Pete Carroll. "They're dangerous ... to their opponents' strength of schedule.

Whichever team wins the West will make for a great story, and an easy wild card playoff game win on the road for the second-place team in the East, North, or South."

The Cardinals will head into battle at Qwest Field with Max Hall at quarterback, the Cards' 25-year-old rookie out of Brigham Young. Hall showed toughness in Arizona's Week 5 win over the Saints.

"I've become a big Max Hall fan," said Larry Fitzgerald. "Before the season, if you would have mentioned 'Max Hall,' I would have assumed it was a dormitory at the University of Phoenix.

Max may be a rookie, but he's got a mature 25 years under his belt. You know, he did missionary work going door-to-door trying to convert people. Well, he's continuing that work. Earlier this year, he converted Matt Leinart into a Texan.

Hey, I'm all for the volunteer work Max does in the name of the church. Ask anybody, they'll tell you I'm very passionate about my missionary position."

Two months from now, followers of the NFC West will look back on this game and say "Why are we looking back on this game?"

This game could be close, but I'll take the veteran quarterback at home over Max Hall any day.

Matt Hasselbeck throws for 204 yards and a score, and the Seahawks defense confuses Hall with a mix of unique coverages and stunting blitzes.

Seattle wins, 27-19.

New England @ San Diego (-3)

Week 5's 42-14 win in Miami proved that the Patriots could win without Randy Moss, as Moss went without a catch in the win. In a dramatic 23-20 overtime win over the Ravens, the Patriots proved again that they could indeed win without Moss, this time with Moss not even on the roster.

"You could say that on both occasions," Bill Belichick said, "that Moss was 'somewhere else.'

Legendary boxer Roberto Duran once famously stated 'No mas.' I recently stated 'no Moss' and sent Randy packing to Minnesota. You could argue that Randy was our best player. That makes the term 'good riddance' even more appropriate."

San Diego, despite boasting the NFL's top-rated offense and defense, is 2-4, and plagued by turnovers and quarterback protection issues. Philip Rivers has already eclipsed 2,000 yards passing for the year, but has been sacked 18 times, second only to Jay Cutler's 23.

"Apparently," said Rivers, "the five guys charged with protecting me constitute an offensive dotted line. But I'm a Catholic, so I'm keenly aware of lack of protection issues."

Rivers fires up his teammates with a stirring pre-game speech, then jaws with Tom Brady during warm-ups, with Rivers claiming that Brady's long hair and marriage to a Brazilian supermodel is clearly the work of the devil, albeit a pretty darn cool devil.

Brady engineers an opening drive for a score, but he Chargers' defense stiffens for the balance of the game.

San Diego wins, 31-24.

Oakland @ Denver (-6½)

The Broncos are seething after a questionable interference call on fourth down deprived then of a 20-17 win over the visiting Jets last week. Instead, New York left with a 24-20 win, and fell in a three-way tie for second in the AFC West, 1½ games behind the Chiefs.

"Call it 'Mile High-way robbery,'" said Josh McDaniels. "All I can say is 'olé, because that was 'bull.' And all this just days after John Elway said he lost $15 million in a Ponzi scheme. Elway was famously 'helicoptered' in Super Bowl XXXII; it seems he's been taken for a ride again."

Raiders quarterbacks Bruce Gradkowski and Jason Campbell are both listed as questionable for Sunday's game in Denver.

"Obviously, one of our quarterbacks will have to play with pain," said Raiders owner Al Davis. "They can follow the example of Kenny Stabler. He was a Raider tough guy who was man enough to play hurt. 'Doubtful' wasn't in his vocabulary. Nor was 'questionable.' And 'probable' was just a word used to describe the likelihood of Kenny shooting whiskey before the game."

Broncos win, 27-20.

Minnesota @ Green Bay (-3)

It couldn't have worked out any better for the Vikings last week. With a win over the error-prone Cowboys, and losses by Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay, Minnesota picked up a full-game on each of its NFC North competitors. Now the 2-3 Vikes travel to Lambeau Field to face the 3-3 Packers.

"I'm sick of the ridiculous scandal surrounding Jenn Sterger," Brett Favre said. "One would think I would contradict the rumors were they untrue. I met with the NFL's vice president of security Milt Ahlerich on Tuesday, and until I'm advised to do so, I can't speak on the subject. When I do, I'll surely text the details and location of the press conference. Suffice it to say it won't take place at Fort Dix, New Jersey.

But all 'texticles' and 'she-mails' aside, my attention is centered squarely on the Packers. If I had one eye on Jenn Sterger, then I've got two on the Packers."

The Packers have lost two straight games in overtime, falling to the Redskins and Dolphins in the last two weeks.

"Overtimes can be draining," said Aaron Rodgers, "especially when you lose. So, we're hoping to win convincingly, in the allotted 60 minutes. Come Monday, we're hoping the headlines read 'Green Bay in Regulation.'

We know the Vikings are dangerous. But what's more likely? The Vikes exposing us, or themselves? Considering the controversial actions of Favre and Randy Moss through the years, it's likely we'll see total nudity.

I know fans around the country are excited about this matchup. My only advice is to keep your pants on."

Packers win, 28-27.

NY Giants @ Dallas (-3)

After last week's 24-21 loss in Minnesota, the Cowboys are 1-4, dead-last in the NFC East, and in danger of imploding, exploding, and/or spontaneously combusting. Dallas out-gained the Vikings and controlled time of possession, but still lost, in part due to 3 turnovers and 11 penalties.

"Mistakes are killing us," said Jerry Jones. "And no, I'm not referring to my hiring of Wade Phillips. From turnovers to holding penalties, down to excessive celebration penalties, we're killing ourselves. It angers me to see Miles Austin leapfrog Roy Williams. It's one time I can realistically say I have 'mad hops.' Of course, now the NFL says the flag was thrown because Sam Hurd and Williams displayed the 'Hook'em Horns' sign. That's even more ridiculous.

One would think it's a perfect time for heads to roll. And Wade Phillips would be a perfect candidate, because, let's face it, his head is perfectly round and would roll straight and true. But I'll reiterate, again, that Phillips' job is safe. As you know, I've maintained my support for Phillips through all the trials and tribulation. Heck, I know we have a good defense, but I'm probably the best 'defender' on this team."

Sure, the Cowboys don't have a winning record overall, but they are 1-0 in must-win games after two losses. That was a win at Houston. So, obviously, what the Cowboys need is exactly what they've got — another game in Texas.

Dallas gets after Eli Manning, and DeMarcus Ware collects 2 sacks. Manning throws 2 interceptions, and Tony Romo passes for 2 scores and scrambles for another.

Dallas wins, 31-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:29 PM | Comments (2)

The NFL's Over-Commercialization

When it comes to advertisements and football, I've tried to remain sanguine about it over the years and not get too bent out of shape about it.

After all, you have to take the bad with the good, and we are getting to the point where we can easily watch games that we couldn't just a few years ago. A couple weeks ago, every single Division 1-A college football game was being broadcast somewhere, either online or on television. Every last one.

So, if in order to make that possible, there needs to be a couple additional commercial breaks, or have every aspect of the game "sponsored" by one entity or another, fine.

Maybe about 10 years ago, however, I noticed one facet to in-game advertising that bothered me: a commercial break before and after a kickoff. A bit much, that.

But I tolerated it. I think it was two years ago when I noticed a newer, more insidious trend, one that actually upsets me.

Networks started going to commercial ... during official reviews of disputed plays. Now you only get to the replay several times from different angles if you're lucky. Who doesn't enjoy watching the replays and making up their mind?

And what black-hearted soulless suit looked at those replays and said, "You know, we should be getting some commercials in there!" I really would like to learn learn who that brainchild belonged to and, quite simply, beat him up.

Now comes word that ESPN or the NFL, is asking teams to call timeout if they haven't got in their allotted commercial breaks.

Of course, ESPN denies it. However, as the article states, "A source tells us that it's not unprecedented for the league to take steps in order to get TV timeouts in. [Referee Mike] Carey is an experienced official and was likely searching for a way to get the breaks in, with possible input from the NFL." Titans coach Jeff Fisher basically confirmed it. Whether it's the idea of the NFL or ESPN matters not.

This issue came up because Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio did indeed call two timeouts, the same number of commercial breaks the game was short by. He called them when they were down 20, didn't have the ball, with less than two minutes left. He called them to help the league get all their commercial breaks in, I don't care what Fisher's hypothetical alternative reason is. He's just trying to protect his coaching confederate.

In general, I reject the "slippery slope" argument as a logical fallacy. But since the trend towards finding creative ways to stick in more ads has been a decades-long trend, I think it's safe to say it's a matter of if, not when, the audacity of the NFL (and other leagues) in luring the interest of advertisers at the expense of fans gets even more brazen. Some predictions:

2011: Commercials run instead of showing the extra point attempt after touchdowns. Nothing ever happens on those! And if something does, we'll just show 'em the replay when we come back.

2012: Large squares with silent ads will appear on the field, utilizing the "yellow line" technology we see today.

2013: The large squares are no longer mute. You hear them instead of the announcers and atmosphere once a quarter.

2014: You know how the yellow line stays "under" the players, so to speak? So if a defense is lining up on the line, you see the players, not the line. So it is with the large squares, until 2014. It's only fair the ads come first optically, right? It will appear as if the players are being slipping under them, and emerging on the other side.

2017: Instead of just once a quarter, the large square commercials play all game long. For a fee, you can go back to "mute" squares. People will sign up in droves. This is great, it's just like 2012 again!

2019: Want to see your team in their actual helmets? Better go to a game in person. On TV, the helmets will now display a small animated ad.

2022: Games will only be shown in the upper right quadrant of your TV. The rest will be ads. There will be no sound from the football game.

2025: For a fee, you can get the ad reduced to one quarter of the screen, with authentic game sounds and announcer analysis in the fourth quarter. People will signup in droves. This is great, it's just like 2019 again!

Posted by Kevin Beane at 12:39 PM | Comments (1)

October 20, 2010

Cody Ross, Lottery Winner

October is the only month of the year when all four major American professional sports cross paths in live, non-exhibition action. The NFL is in full swing, the NHL and NBA seasons are in their infancies, and the MLB playoffs unfold, often dramatically. As far as the calendar is concerned, October is the nexus of the sports universe.

This confluence makes October a great time to examine the tournaments through which these four altars of fandom determine their champions. The hockey postseason inspires wealthy professionals to grow lumberjackian facial hair and otherwise disengaged media to vaguely praise the uniqueness of "playoff hockey." Basketball's playoffs serve as platforms for stars to shine. The NFL playoffs find a way to somehow escalate the intensity of a league where every week in every city is already a "must-win." And yet baseball carries an elegant mystique the others are rarely afforded. Mr. Octobers are crowned and "clutchness" is the ultimate currency, awarded only to those who perform in the most important situations (the myth of clutch is another fight for another day).

But behind this lore, the baseball playoffs are a glorified lottery. Consider Tampa Bay. The Rays compiled thousands of at-bats and innings pitched during 162 games, winning more than any other team in the American League. Yet by going 2-3 in a five game stretch, the Rays' season came to an abrupt end. Those three losses against Texas represent a proportion of baseball less than 1.9% of the regular season. In the NFL, that's just over a quarter of football. Is it possible to lose a football game in 18 minutes? Perhaps, but outside of "The Longest Yard," a football team's fate is never officially sealed, by rule, in those 18 minutes the way the Rays' was in three games.

To some, this high stake coin flip is maddening (I imagine you can place nearly all baseball front office people in this category). The playoffs are the realm of the micro-result, the gray area of statistical irrelevance that drives even the mildly numerically inclined to surrender. This is the period where a few at-bats outweigh an otherwise underwhelming career. Myths of "clutch performance" are spun from the very minimum of evidence. So far in 2010, this is the kingdom of Cody Ross.

For comparison, consider your own job. If we assume you work five out of every seven days (no holidays, no vacation, you workaholic), that's about 261 days. Cody Ross, on the other hand, compiled 604 plate appearances in 2009 (for whatever reason, I could not find a definitive number of PAs for his 2010 regular season, but 604 represents a typical number for a regular position player). His 8 plate appearance tear from his home run off of Derek Lowe in Game 4 of the NLDS through his home run off of Roy Oswalt in Game 2 of the NLCS, while undisputedly impressive, represents only 1.3% of a season's worth of play. In your work week, that's less than three and a half days. Would your boss overlook more than 257 undistinguished days of mediocrity for a shortened week of brilliance?

None of this is to say Ross' performance is anything less than spectacular. But inevitably, this micro-sample will become the basis of hyperbole. Columnists will search for "deeper" meaning. After all, Ross was cast aside from the Marlins on waivers, and as countless reports suggest, the Giants only nabbed him to prevent the Padres from picking up the outfielder. Maybe this disrespect motivated Ross to become red hot at the ideal time, some will write. Maybe Ross is a late bloomer who needed this dose of postseason atmosphere to realize potential, others will insist. And when Ross' contract comes up for discussion, you can bet his agent might expend a little breath those eight plate appearances.

More likely, though, this is dumb, blind luck. Oh, not Ross' ability to hit anything and everything three distinguished major league pitchers threw. That took years of work, blessed genetics, and lots and lots of repetitions. Not just anyone in the world could have ripped off the three games Ross did. But anyone in baseball could have.

And that's what the baseball postseason is all about. Over 162 games, the Albert Pujolses and A-Rods will eventually get the best of their competitors, just as casinos eventually erode players' chip stacks. Even the smallest edges, over enough time, win out. But playoff baseball isn't about countless repetitions. The postseason is about one roll of the dice, one check-raise on a semi-bluff.

And when historically anonymous players like Cody Ross hit the jackpot, it should just remind us all how important every pitch in October is.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 8:55 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 31

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson fell to 36th after an early spin at Charlotte, but recovered to finish third in the Bank of America 500, one spot ahead of Denny Hamlin. Johnson now leads Hamlin by 41 points in the Sprint Cup standings with five races remaining.

"Five points may not be a lot," Johnson said, "but it puts me five points closer to the Sprint Cup championship. And five is the operable number. That fifth title will give me five rings, one for each of my five fingers. And, with five fingers, you can make a very convincing 'clinched' fist."

2. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished fourth in the Bank of America 500, his 12th top-five finish of the year. Hamlin chased Jimmie Johnson for many of the closing laps, but was unable to get close enough to pass. Johnson's five-point edge in the race put him 41 ahead of Hamlin as the series heads to Martinsville, where both Johnson and Hamlin are strong.

"The No. 11 Fed Ex Ground Toyota was good," Hamlin said, "but not good enough. We've slipped back in the standings by small margins the last two races. In Japan, they call that 'Tokyo Drift.'"

Now, I want the Sprint Cup championship badly. To me, it's the Holy Grail of auto racing. With Johnson on his game, it may take a bit of magic, and we may have to pull something out of our rear end to defeat him. If that's the case, then we'll call my car 'Fed Ex-calibur.'"

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished eighth at Charlotte, posting his series-best 21st top-10 result of the year. He is third in the point standings, trailing Jimmie Johnson by 77 points, and besides Denny Hamlin, may be the only hope to end Jimmie Johnson's title reign.

"There's an election approaching," Harvick said, "so it's fitting that the No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil team is offering 'hope' and 'change.'

Others have thrown in towels, as a result of engine failures, wrecks, unjust rulings by NASCAR, or what have you. We're much too close to Johnson to call it quits. There will be no 'concession' speech, except maybe by Dale Earnhardt, Jr.'s director of merchandising, because sales have to be slow for him."

4. Kyle Busch — Busch led 217 of 334 laps at Charlotte, but his dominance was interrupted by a debris caution with 26 laps to go that bunched the field. Busch was passed by Jamie McMurray, who pulled away in clean air, while Busch settled for second. Busch improved four spots in the point standings to fifth, 177 behind Johnson.

"Was their actually debris on the track?" Busch said. "I don't know. This I do know: NASCAR has the best spotter in the business.

I still don't like our chances to win the Cup. There's a joke going around: 'What did Kyle Busch say when asked about his attitude towards winning the Cup, despite facing nearly insurmountable odds?' If you don't know the answer and replied 'I give up,' then you're right anyway."

5. Tony Stewart — Stewart fought an ill-handling car for much of the night at Charlotte and finished 21st, the last car on the lead lap. It was a crushing blow to Stewart's title hopes after last week's win at California. He is sixth in the point standings, 177 out of first.

"The naming of Mobil 1 as a sponsor for next year eases the pain of our disappointment in the Chase thus far," Stewart said. "We may have ran out of fuel in New Hampshire, but now we're 'gassed' up for next year."

6. Carl Edwards — Edwards started second at Charlotte, but immediately faced handling problems that dropped him well out of the top 10. Numerous adjustments led to minor improvements, but the No. 99 Ford never found the speed to compete up front. Edwards remained seventh in the point standings, and is 200 out of first.

"The Aflac Fusion lacked handling all night," Edwards said. "Give Matt Kenseth a football, and he'll throw one, but I'm not used to driving a 'wounded duck.'

I'm not quite ready to declare my Sprint Cup hopes over. At least not officially. But, as you can see by a 200 point deficit and my body language, a 'declaration of inference' is imminent."

7. Jeff Gordon — Gordon dashed to the pole for the Bank of America 500, but his night in Charlotte was felled by a battery issue and a late pit road speeding penalty. He finished 23rd, and is now 156 points behind Jimmie Johnson in the Sprint Cup standings.

"That's two speeding penalties in the last two races," Gordon said. "I'm obviously in a hurry to get somewhere, but apparently not to the finish line."

8. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished fourth at Charlotte, overcoming a slow start to claim his seventh top-five result of the year. He moved up two spots to eighth in the Sprint Cup point standings, and now trails Jimmie Johnson by 225.

"It was nice to 'finish' on Sunday," Brady said, "as opposed to last week's disaster at California, in which we were 'finished.'"

9. Matt Kenseth — Kenseth finished sixth in the Bank of America 500, his second top-10 of the Chase and only his fifth of the year. Kenseth, in the No. 17 Crown Royal Ford, started 17th and made continual improvements to position himself for his best finish of the Chase.

"I drive the Crown Royal car," Kenseth said. "And the way things are looking, Jimmie Johnson drives the 'crown royalty' car."

10. Kurt Busch — Busch, the spring winner at Charlotte, fell out of contention early in the Bank of America 500 with a spin that dropped him a lap down and languishing far back in the field. Busch eventually finished 30th, three laps down, and fell to ninth in the point standings, 237 out of first.

"Saturday's race was a far cry from May's race," Busch lamented. "Believe me, it's humbling being called a 'defending champion' in the presence of Jimmie Johnson."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 4:43 PM | Comments (0)

October 19, 2010

NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* In the first 90 or so years of NFL history, only five quarterbacks threw for at least 1,900 yards in the first six weeks of the season. This year, three more have done it: Philip Rivers, Kyle Orton, and Peyton Manning. Rivers joins Drew Bledsoe as the only players ever to pass for 2,000 yards through Week 6.

* I like Maurice Jones-Drew, but on Monday, Jon Gruden described him as a combination of the best attributes of Earl Campbell and Barry Sanders. Look, MJD's a great running back. He's not in the same league as Campbell or Sanders, certainly not a combination of the two.

* Last week, Justin Bieber of all people took a shot at Tom Brady's appearance. For years, even the most macho NFL fans admitted, and often joked about, Brady's hotness. You had to at least acknowledge it just so people didn't think you were stupid, or hiding something. But he's not hot any more. I don't know if it's age, or the stupid haircut, or — and this is my preferred theory — maybe his internal ugliness is starting to becoming apparent externally, too. Brady's black heart is turning his pretty boy's face into a damn jack-o-lantern.

* Andy Reid described himself as "chubby" in the postgame press conference on Sunday. Uh, right. Reid has always been chubby, but now he's downright enormous. I think neither Kevin Kolb nor Michael Vick can fill the void left in Reid's heart by Donovan McNabb, and Coach Reid has been eating his feelings. Seriously, he wasn't this big last year.

* I am convinced that NFL replay officials enjoy wasting everyone's time. Why do they wait until one second before the snap of the next play to call for the ref to go under the hood? Everybody knows you're going to call down to the field, why not just do it immediately?

***

This year, the story you can't get away from is head injury. That was particularly true this week, with several vicious hits and scary concussions. The league is poised to announce that it will start suspending players for some of these hits. Suspending players for dirty hits is absolutely the right course of action, but I hope this policy won't be abused to frighten defenders into playing two-hand touch. Hard, legal hits don't merit suspension. Unnecessary roughness and head-hunting do.

A few old-school Neanderthals have suggested in the last 48 hours that these hits are just part of the game, that the league doesn't need to do anything about them. Players know the risk, they say, and no one's forcing them to play in the NFL. If you're buying that, I've got a Nigerian prince to introduce you to. What the hell do we need seat belts for? People who drives cars know the risk. No one's forcing them to drive. Smart people constantly strive to make improvements. For the NFL, right now that means working to reduce head trauma and dirty hits.

It's true that players enter the NFL knowing there's a possibility they could suffer serious injury. That doesn't mean we should just accept those injuries without trying to prevent them! You've got to be a psychopath or a fool to believe otherwise. Instead of insisting that players knew what they were signing up for and nothing is wrong with head trauma or permanent injury, we should figure out how to reduce injuries without compromising the game. Instead of blaming the victim, we should work to reduce problems in the future.

There's a simple solution: eject and suspend dirty players. This is not a new idea. The league suspended Albert Haynesworth for stomping on Andre Gurode's face. It can (and should) suspend Brandon Meriweather for head-hunting Todd Heap. Referee John Parry ejected Dante Wesley for his vicious hit on Clifton Smith last year. Officials can (and should) eject players for dirty hits in the future.

This is not a new rule, just a common sense enforcement of existing rules against dirty play, careless violence, and unnecessary roughness. Player safety is a critical issue, and neither fines nor flags are a sufficient deterrent to dangerous play. I suspect suspensions and ejections will do the trick. I do hope the league will limit suspensions and ejections to flagrant penalties and repeat offenders. Physical play has always been part of the game, and league policies should be aimed at reducing careless and dirty play, not handcuffing blockers and tacklers.

A number of players suffered head injuries in Week 6, but the only obviously dirty hit was Brandon Meriweather's shot at Todd Heap. It looks like the league may come down on Dunta Robinson for his cringe-inducing hit on DeSean Jackson, but in my mind, Meriweather's shot on Heap was far worse. Robinson nailed D-Jax, no doubt, and that hit has received more attention because (1) the hit sounded like a gunshot, (2) both players were injured, and (3) Jackson is a star. But I don't believe Robinson set out to injure anyone. A warning? Sure. A fine? Okay. But a suspension? I don't see it. Meriweather, though, was head-hunting, and we just can't condemn that strongly enough. Meriweather should have been ejected from the game, and if the NFL is serious about player safety, it will suspend him for next week's game at San Diego.

On to the Week 6 rankings, brackets show previous rank.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers [1] — Ben Roethlisberger played well in his return from suspension (257 yards, 3 TD, 112.7 rating), and he obviously gives the team new confidence in its air attack, but the success formula hasn't changed. Rashard Mendenhall is sixth in the NFL in rushing yards (despite the bye), and the Steelers lead the NFL in run defense. Pittsburgh's next three games are on the road, so we'll get to see how Big Ben responds to a hostile crowd. Lawrence Timmons (2 sacks, INT) and James Harrison (1.5 sacks, forced fumble) both had big games this weekend. Timmons is among the league leaders in tackles, and Harrison has now forced 4 fumbles in 5 games.

2. New York Jets [3] — The only team to beat the Patriots, they're 5-1, riding the longest winning streak in the league (5 games), and rank in the top five in both points scored and points allowed. The story of the season so far has got to be LaDainian Tomlinson, who looks like the old LT, and ranks in the top 10 in every major rushing category: 490 yards, 5.3 average, 5 TDs. He even has five runs of at least 20 yards, already more than his total from all of last season (3). In all six of the Jets' games, Tomlinson has been the leading rusher, for either team.

3. New England Patriots [5] — Deion Branch made an immediate impact in his return to the Patriots, and obviously still has some chemistry with his old quarterback, but Tom Brady didn't have a great game against Baltimore's defense, with two interceptions and a 69.5 passer rating. Either Stephen Gostkowski's last name is pronounced differently than I think it is, or announcers have inexplicable and shameful difficulty pronouncing something that's not really that hard. And this guy's been in the league as a reasonably high-profile kicker for a few years now. Come on, you learned how to pronounce Houshmandzadeh, you can do this.

4. Baltimore Ravens [2] — A modest drop after a respectable loss. This is not a 10-point defeat against the Cardinals, they took the Patriots to overtime in New England. The Ravens also expect Ed Reed to return next week. They were a top-five team without Reed; they're obviously top-five with him. Derrick Mason led the Ravens in receiving this weekend, becoming the 14th player with a 100-yard receiving game after his 36th birthday. With 13 more, he can tie Jerry Rice.

5. Indianapolis Colts [6] — Overcame three lost fumbles to escape from Washington with a win. The "Amoeba Defense" facilitated a great night rushing for the Colts, while Manning still passed for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns. Forgive me if this seems hyperbolic; I don't believe it is: Manning is a little like football's Ted Williams. Many teams employed a defensive shift against Williams, stacking fielders to the right of second base. Manning's achievements are all the more remarkable because he so often faces defenses tailored to stopping him. When Edgerrin James was a dominant RB, opponents couldn't take too many chances with their run defense, but for the last five seasons or so, we've seen extreme strategies for trying to neutralize Manning, including routine use of dime defensive packages on first down and the wholesale abandonment of defensive linemen. Occasionally, when those strategies are backed by exceptional personnel, they've succeeded. Most of the time, though, it seems that whatever you throw at the Colts defensively, they have an answer for. I believe the 1950-51 Rams had the greatest offense of all time, but looking at sustained success, there's just no question that it's Manning's Colts. The same way we might say the '85 Bears were the greatest single-season defense, but the Steel Curtain the greatest over time, the Colts of the last decade are the finest offense in NFL history. If anyone's close, I suppose it would be the Air Coryell Chargers, or maybe the Sid Luckman Bears of the 1940s.

6. Tennessee Titans [7] — As of this writing, it is not clear how serious Vince Young's ankle injury is, but the team is comfortable and in good hands with Kerry Collins if Young needs a week or two to get healthy. The bye is in Week 9. On a related note, how can you risk a player's health just to get him to 100 yards? I know Chris Johnson wants the numbers, and the drive to reach them is probably part of what makes him great. But part of what makes you the damn coach is being able to say no. You're winning 23-3 late in the fourth quarter, basically running out the clock, and you give seven carries to your star running back? Forget running up the score — though there's an argument to be made there, too — it's just not smart. Why do you risk the health of your best player when the outcome of the game is already decided? That's not good for the team, and despite what CJ2K might think, it's not good for him, either. Tennessee leads the NFL in point differential (+64) and sacks (24).

7. Atlanta Falcons [4] — Facing an injury-riddled Philadelphia line that had allowed 19 sacks in the first five games, the Falcons managed only 1 against Kevin Kolb. There's no need to get cute and drop John Abraham into coverage. When your opponent presents an obvious weakness, forget the element of surprise and attack it. In the next four weeks, Atlanta has three home games and a bye. That's good news for a team that, in the Matt Ryan era, is much stronger at home. The Falcons have to be pretty happy sitting at 4-2 with half their road games already out of the way.

8. New York Giants [8] — Three wins in a row following back-to-back shellackings from the Colts and Titans. Osi Umenyiora had multiple sacks in all three wins, and this weekend he also forced 2 fumbles, bringing him to a league-leading 7 for the 2010 season. In fact, that's almost double the second-highest total (4, by several players). It's also a career high for Umenyiora, who forced 5 fumbles in 2007. The Giants have yet to play any divisional games, but that changes next week when they travel to Cowboys Stadium, with a chance to open a 4½-game lead on Dallas.

9. Miami Dolphins [12] — Brandon Marshall caught 10 passes for 127 yards, Cameron Wake had three sacks, and Dan Carpenter nailed three long field goals to lift Miami to victory. If the Dolphins lose to Pittsburgh next week, they will drop to 0-3 at home, with a 3-0 road record. So much for homefield advantage.

10. Philadelphia Eagles [14] — Overall, Kolb had a very strong game against Atlanta, the kind of performance that makes it hard to keep him on the bench. But he made one really horrible play, and I'm not talking about his interception and subsequent horse collar tackle (though that set up a Falcons TD just before halftime). The play I mean is the one on which DeSean Jackson suffered what is being described as a "serious concussion." Kolb led him right into the hit, and you just can't throw that ball. It's a quarterback's responsibility not to put his receivers in situations like that. Kicker David Akers had perhaps the worst game of his career this weekend, missing three field goals from reasonable distances.

11. Washington Redskins [10] — Allowing over 400 yards per game (actually 410), about the same number as the 2007 Patriots averaged on offense when they broke the single-season scoring record (411). Washington's problem is the secondary, full of butterfingers and safeties who can't cover, plus linebackers who are really defensive linemen. LaRon Landry is a devastating strong safety, and he's having a nice season, but he's not much use in coverage, and the free safeties are a constant disaster. This was a top-10 defense last season, and with substantially the same personnel, it's obviously the transition to a 3-4 that is primarily responsible for the dropoff, but this team badly needs to upgrade its defensive backfield. I'm not talking about a superstar: a solid, veteran free safety would provide substantial improvement.

12. Kansas City Chiefs [9] — Matt Cassel, Thomas Jones, and Dwayne Bowe all had their best games of the season, but the defense got burned, and a 21-point fourth quarter from Houston gave the Chiefs' their second straight loss. The comeback was abetted by a really terrible pass interference call against Brandon Flowers that should have instead negated a long catch by Andre Johnson. But look at Kansas City's schedule: Jags and Bills at home, Raiders, Broncos, Cardinals, Seahawks, Denver again, Chargers, Rams, Titans, Raiders again. This team is going to the playoffs.

13. Green Bay Packers [13] — Consecutive overtime losses. If the NFL used regulation ties, they'd be tied for the best record in the NFC. Greg Jennings finally had his breakout game (6 rec, 133 yds, TD), but Aaron Rodgers took 5 sacks just a week after sustaining a concussion. How do you not make protecting the QB your top priority in a situation like that? Man, hold if you have to, just don't let the guy get hit. Injuries continue to be a problem, but Clay Matthews III probably will be back in the lineup next week, and that's a huge boost for the struggling defense. Defensive backs Atari Bigby and Al Harris, both coming off the PUP list, are also expected to return.

14. Minnesota Vikings [16] — I missed the beginning of this game so that FOX could show Eldra Buckley running out the clock for Philadelphia. How does the most popular sports league in North America have the worst television package? I wish there were some way to make the league stop taking fans for granted. It would also be nice if the league would stop aiming for a "work stoppage" — no football, basically — in 2011. But that's another issue. Minnesota's offense is really bad, 25th in yardage and 27th in scoring. Through six games, no one on the team has a 100-yard receiving game, and their 41-year-old quarterback has a lower passer rating (72.1) than Alex Smith. The defense has quietly played well, not getting a lot of big plays but keeping opponents out of the end zone.

15. New Orleans Saints [23] — First, a mea culpa. At the beginning of the season, I rated the Saints as high as they could possibly be rated, probably higher than they deserved. Following last week's loss to the Cardinals, I had the Saints about as low as they could possibly be rated, probably too low. I hope I've finally found a reasonable position for them. They're 4-2, tied for the best record in the NFC. But that's against a .406 schedule, and close wins over the Vikings and 49ers, reasonably impressive at the beginning of the season, don't look so good now. They barely beat the winless Panthers and actually lost to the hopeless Cardinals. Drew Brees has thrown 6 interceptions in the last four weeks, compared to just 11 all of last season. Chris Ivory obviously had a huge game against Tampa, and it will be interesting to see if he can replicate it against better defenses.

16. Dallas Cowboys [11] — I want to defend the NFL's excessive celebration penalties. I believe sportsmanship is an indispensable element of sports, and if we need 15-yard penalties to force professional athletes to act like adults, so be it. But the rules are ridiculous. No sane person wants to see a 7-minute celebration, a choreographed dance, or any of Chad Johnson's increasingly desperate attempts at humor (Look at me! Look how funny I am! Come on, look at me! Moooom, you're not looking!). But Miles Austin hopping over Roy Williams' back draws a 15-yard flag? How that's unsportsmanlike is just a little beyond me, and I'm a humorless stickler about this stuff. Especially stupid is that Austin was punished for being a good athlete. Later in the same game, Minnesota's Kenny Onatolu tried to jump over Percy Harvin in the end zone, but he didn't make it all the way and fell over. No flag. Excessive celebration penalties: good idea. Banning all multi-player celebrations and looking for excuses to enforce the ban: bad idea. This isn't about sense of humor or the "No Fun League." It's just about a rule that is stupid. Get rid of it, amend it, or direct the officials to lighten up and enforce only the most flagrant violations. Honestly, I'm comfortable with "excessive celebration" being a judgment call. I think we usually know it when we see it.

17. Houston Texans [17] — Their defense, already maybe the worst in the league, suffered another loss with a season-ending Achilles tear for linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Mario Williams, after a blazing start (4 sacks in the first 2 weeks), has only 1 sack in the last four games. The team needs him to make a consistent impact. Arian Foster, who scored two more touchdowns this weekend, is the early front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year. As long as the voters can resist the allure of Sam Bradford's 69.3 passer rating, that is.

18. Denver Broncos [20] — Faced a devastating schedule in the last month: Colts, Titans, Ravens, and Jets. They also have to travel overseas for a Week 8 game at Wembley Stadium. The thin air in Denver is a kicker's best friend. Both kickers (Matt Prater and Nick Folk) connected from beyond 55 yards on Sunday. If you play in a fantasy league that includes kickers, you could just choose whoever plays for the Broncos and do pretty well every year based simply on the boost from playing at Mile High.

19. Seattle Seahawks [25] — The only team in the NFC West that has a positive point differential: +1. In Week 6, Mike Williams, who starred at USC and flamed out for the Lions, caught 10 passes for 123 yards, and the Seahawks sacked Jay Cutler 6 times, mostly on blitzes. The Bears went 0/12 on third down, and Jordan Babineaux created a safety when he sacked Cutler, who fumbled and recovered in the end zone. The Cardinals travel to Seattle in Week 7 with first place in the division on the line.

20. San Diego Chargers [15] — I think everyone agrees the Cowboys and Chargers are the most disappointing teams in the NFL so far. In fact, it's still hard to believe the teams aren't pretty good. What do they have in common? They can't turn yards into points. San Diego and Dallas are 1st and 3rd, respectively, in yards per game. They're 5th and 16th in scoring. They're first and fourth in total defense, 19th and 21st in points allowed. That's right, the 2-4 Bolts lead the NFL in both yards gained and yards allowed. San Diego is 2-0 at home, 0-4 on the road. It appears that Antonio Gates may play against New England next week; I don't see how the Chargers can win if he doesn't. Gates has an 85-game regular season starting streak, but I'd bet he'll be listed as questionable.

21. Chicago Bears [18] — You know what you're getting with Mike Martz. His offense is a ridiculous extreme of high-risk, high-reward. Talented players like Kurt Warner, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Orlando Pace can pull it off. The 2010 Bears cannot. Jay Cutler has been sacked 15 times in his last game and a half. Altogether, Bear QBs have been sacked 27 times already. That's nearly as many as all of last year (35). The single-season record is 76, by David Carr and the Texans in 2002. The Bears haven't beaten anyone with a winning record. The teams they've defeated boast a combined record of 5-17 (.227). That's an empty 4-2. This is not a good team.

22. St. Louis Rams [30] — Have held five of their six opponents to under 20 points (though the sixth, Detroit, put up 44). It helps when your opponent's two best receivers leave the game with injuries, but three Rams had multiple sacks this weekend: Larry Grant, James Hall, and Chris Long. Hall leads the team, with 6 sacks. The Rams have tripled their win total from 2009.

23. Cincinnati Bengals [21] — This is the second week in a row I've ranked them one spot ahead of a team they just lost to. The Bengals have played one really good game (beat Baltimore in Week 2) and four really mediocre games (three losses and a win over the Panthers). Antwan Odom's four-game suspension doesn't seem like a very big deal. Odom played exceptionally well at the beginning of last season, but this year he's averaging 1 tackle per game, with no sacks.

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [19] — Their secret is out: you can run on Tampa, and you can do it pretty much at will. They're 31st in run defense, 32nd in yards per carry allowed (5.3), and they're worse every week. In the last three games, the Bucs have yielded an astounding 562 yards on the ground, allowing a 140-yard rusher in three consecutive games. I'm sure that's happened before, though I can't remember when. Rashard Mendenhall ran for 143, Cedric Benson pounded out 144, and Chris Ivory rushed for 158 on just 15 carries. If you have Steven Jackson on your fantasy team, for heaven's sake play him in Week 7. The Bucs are also last in the NFL in sacks (4).

25. Cleveland Browns [22] — Honestly, I think they should probably be a little higher than this. All of their losses are to teams with winning records. Josh Cribbs was knocked out of this week's game, but his injury apparently is not serious, and he's expected to take the field in Week 7. This might be a top-20 team with Seneca Wallace healthy.

26. Detroit Lions [26] — Team A has just one win, but against a .538 schedule and has only been outscored by 9 points. Team B has one win, but against a .571 schedule and has actually outscored its opponents by 6 points. Team A is the Dallas Cowboys; Team B is the Detroit Lions. They lost by 5 to the Bears on what everyone now calls "the Calvin Johnson rule." They lost to the Eagles by 3, the Packers by 2, the Giants by 8. A 14-point loss to Minnesota was closer than the score makes it seem. And they blew out the Rams, winning by 38. This isn't a bad team, it just has to start winning some of these close games. Ndamukong Suh had another big game, 1.5 sacks against the Giants, and is a serious Pro Bowl candidate as a rookie.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars [24] — The only team to lose three games by at least 20 points each. Trent Edwards clearly doesn't know the offense yet, and turnovers (2 interceptions by Edwards, 1 by David Garrard, and a fumble by Marcedes Lewis) were a major factor in the loss, particularly the two in the red zone. The fumble by Lewis killed Jackonsville's momentum at the end of the first half, and Edwards' end-zone interception effectively sealed the defeat. The Jaguars' real problem, though, is defense. The team ranks 27th in total defense, and tied for last in points allowed. Both Vince Young and Kerry Collins threw effectively against them, and in the fourth quarter, Tennessee made an 80-yard touchdown drive out of nine consecutive runs. The Jags couldn't stop them. Opponents average a 110 passer rating against Jacksonville.

28. Arizona Cardinals [27] — Steve Breaston is expected to return to the lineup in Week 7, and this team needs any boost it can get on offense. It's hard to believe this team is 3-2. I'm really glad my last name isn't Breaston. Not that Oremland is spectacular, but at least it doesn't sound like a body part.

29. San Francisco 49ers [29] — Frank Gore (471 yards rushing, 284 receiving) trails only Arian Foster in yards from scrimmage. Gore and the Rams' Steven Jackson have limited stats because of injuries and the terrible teams they play on, but these two have been consistently elite running backs for the last five seasons now. Gore's 4.7 career rushing average is among the highest in history, and he's good for 400 receiving yards a year.

30. Oakland Raiders [28] — It's hard not to feel bad for Jason Campbell. After several years of constant criticism and coaching changes in Washington, he went to Oakland (where careers go to die), only to get benched for Bruce Gradkowski. Now, following an admittedly miserable performance against the Niners, it looks like may take a back seat to Kyle Boller, dropping to third on the Raiders' depth chart.

31. Carolina Panthers [31] — Switching quarterbacks again, from Jimmy Clausen to Matt Moore. I don't think it particularly matters.

32. Buffalo Bills [32] — Week 6 byes: Bengals, Cardinals, Panthers, Bills. Everybody wins. Three or four of the worst teams in the league get a week to re-group (or just cry) and fans get a week off from watching them play.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 6:28 PM | Comments (2)

Rabbit, Run

A second baseman by trade playing third base for the San Francisco Giants like ... a second baseman by trade. And it caught up to him early and often Sunday, helping cost his team a run at the outset and putting them in jeopardy enough otherwise.

A pitcher reaching base to lead-off an inning and running the bases for the Philadelphia Phillies like he has a hellhound on his trail, or at least a swift center fielder ready to cut him down, then scoring the first of a five-run inning that put the Giants away for keeps in National League Championship Series Game 2.

Is this NLCS defying predictions, or what?

They thought it was going to be a shootout between Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum Saturday, until Cody Ross sent Halladay's postseason hitless innings streak into the left field seats to start the fun and the Giants ended up squeezing a one-run series-opening win out of Halladay when their own man was good, very good, but not really too close to his customary lights-out self.

They thought maybe Jonathan Sanchez and Roy Oswalt would match zeroes or at least single runs come Sunday, even when Ross — are we beginning to see a pattern here, or what? — took care of Oswalt's no-hit bid in the top of the fifth. After having been the Giants' only baserunner to date thanks to a second-inning walk, Ross with one out unloaded on 1-0 and sent one to the left field seats yet again. At this rate, even Phillies fans are going to hammer in his mailbox out there.

Until the bottom of the seventh came around, Sanchez and Oswalt were doing just what they thought these two lancers might do. Sanchez actually had his worst outing against the Phillies in six starts, the five prior leaving the Phillies with no more than four hits per, but come Sunday, he surrendered five while punching out seven and walking three. The Phillies' apparent strategy — don't let him get to a second strike if you can help it. On strike two, they reached base only twice.

Oswalt to that point was way stingier, having surrendered a mere 2 hits while punching out 8, paralyzing the Giants with his quivery fastball, especially when he threw it higher in the zone, and voluptuous enough curve balls. The Giants went only 2-for-18 on Oswalt heaters and that included 6 of the 9 punchouts. They also went 0-for-4 against Oswalt's often underrated changeup, especially when the pitch went toward the floor of the zone, and measuring Oswalt adjusting to Citizen's Bank Park rather spotlessly.

Which is exactly what the Phillies wanted when they landed him from a Houston Astros club going into not just rebuilding, but blow-and-build mode around midsummer. And wearing their silks Oswalt pitched himself into a tie for second (his company: John Smoltz and Orlando [El Duque] Hernandez) behind Orel Hershiser for the most consecutive postseason starts without a loss (nine).

They just weren't bargaining on a pitcher who has a little Rickey Henderson in his blood when the opportunity presents itself.

Oswalt led off the Philadelphia seventh with the Phillies holding a 2-1 lead and lined a 2-2 service right up the pipe for a base hit, the ball landing just in front of a diving Andres Torres, who seemed to have misjudged his playing angle. That sent Sanchez out in favour of Ramon Ramirez and taking second when Shane Victorino sacrificed up the third base line. Then Ramirez put Chase Utley on intentionally to set up a double play. Only Placido Polanco refused to stay on script and, on 1-0, singled up the pipe.

Here's where the fun began. Even the Giants could see Phillies third base coach Sam Perlozzo holding a stop sign, with Andres Torres, in center field for the Giants and as swift as they come, well prepared to gun one in. Giants first baseman Aubrey Huff saw the sign and positioned himself properly to cut the throw off, hustling to behind the mound.

The problem was that Oswalt proved a scofflaw and Huff proved to have misread the runner. Stop signs mean nothing to him. He didn't downshift for one second. If anything, he dropped the hammer into fifth gear, as if he'd been reading Rickey Henderson's playbook between innings just in case.

He blasted right through Perlozzo's stop sign just before Huff cut Torres's throw off, but Huff set to take the throw rather than catch it on the turn toward the plate. That was all the ammunition Oswalt the Rabbit needed to shoot down the third base line, glancing back twice to be sure of the incoming throw if there was one, then beating Huff's hesitation relay home just beneath Buster Posey's tag.

The Phillies probably still don't know whether to laugh — or call in an animal trainer.

"I ain't that good," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said after the game. "I'm not a cowboy. I might look like one, talk like one, but I'm not one."

"Obviously," shortstop Jimmy Rollins said after the game, with Oswalt sitting nearby, "Roy knew he could make it, so he kept running, or he was just too tired to stop. It was a nice slide, too. Roy, that was pretty nice. That was something I would do. Actually, I probably wouldn't have needed to slide."

Spoken like a man with a three-run double in his immediate future, following the Oswalt slide, which is exactly what Rollins hit after Ryan Howard swished, Jeremy Affeldt (relieving Ramirez) walked Jayson Werth on the house to load the pads for an all-hands force situation, and yet another San Francisco bullpen bull, Santiago Casilla, relieved Affeldt to face Rollins.

This was one of a few inexplicable moves by San Francisco manager Bruce Bochy. Why turn the slumping Rollins back to the strong side (left-handed) when he hadn't been hitting worth the proverbial tinker's damn from the right side? If you want him to whack it on the ground to end the inning, throw to his weaker side.

Not this time. Casilla fed Rollins two balls before sending Rollins something down and in. And Rollins almost predictably sent it up and out and banging off the right field scoreboard wall, sending home Utley, Polanco, and Werth, and leaving the Giants to Oswalt's none-too-tender mercies.

Oh, they managed to set up first and second on Oswalt with two out in the eighth. And Oswalt managed to get rid of Huff for the side, Huff lining out to center easily enough. They also managed to get first and third off Ryan Madson in the ninth, including a leadoff pass to Posey, but Edgar Renteria grounded out to short for the game.

But they also had poor Mike Fontenot playing third base, a position he'd played for only 47 games as a major league player, compared to over 200 at second base. And it showed, when he made a large throwing error in the first inning that helped gift the Phillies a run. He also misread and failed to take command of a third-inning popup, not to mention miscovering his base during that half-crazy Phillies seventh.

The first inning miscue was the tipoff. Utley had walked and stolen second and Polanco grounded one up the line. Fontenot picked it cleanly enough but showed his second baseman's throwing arm, throwing it low and wide enough to pull Huff off the pad, catching a big break when the ball hit Polanco's back leg, deadening it and probably keeping Polanco from taking second.

Then Sanchez walked Howard to load the pads and, after Werth looked at strike three, Rollins wrung out a walk to walk Utley home with the Phillies' first run. But a legitimate third baseman probably throws Polanco out, and Werth's strikeout becomes the side without a score.

Easy enough to figure, and to cause Giant fans to hope Bochy takes Pablo Sandoval out of the doghouse in time to face Cole Hamels in Game 3. A lot easier than trying to figure out what made Oswalt run. Not that the Phillies dare. Though a few actually tried.

"Roy's got those stiff hips," Rollins said, "and he looked like he was cardboard running down the line, but he got it done tonight."

He sure didn't look like cardboard to the Giants.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 1:15 PM | Comments (0)

October 18, 2010

Yankees Hanging From a Cliff

On paper, the 2010 ALCS is tied at one game apiece, with the teams heading back to New York for three games. The Yankees have earned the split in Texas with an inspiring come-from-behind thriller in Game 1, and thus have home field advantage and circumstances on their side, it would seem.

And yet as sensible as that sounds, there is a common-sense counterargument that goes with it. Texas' Game 3 starter, Cliff Lee, has been purely unstoppable over the last two seasons, particularly in the playoffs and particularly against the Yankees. Go re-watch Game 1 of last year's World Series, when he was matched against ace C.C. Sabathia in New York. In fact, you don't even have to go back that far, just look at what he did to the Tampa Bay Rays in two games in their building in the previous series. Lee has openly admitted he often feels little to no pressure or nerves during big games, he simply sees his clinical dismantling of opposing lineups as fun.

To the Yankees, Lee is the T-1000 model terminator who seamlessly and comfortably adapts to any situation. He is unable to be rattled or slowed down in his mission, and durable enough to finish the contests he starts, a rare trait in today's game. Any playoff game Lee starts is virtually expected to be an 8-inning or complete game victory.

Perhaps lost in this mix is Andy Pettitte, New York's decorated Game 3 starter. With 19 career postseason victories, no other pitcher has made the postseason his home like Andy, and Monday night he aims to become the first-ever postseason 20-game winner. While baseball fans licked their chops for the Roy Halladay/Tim Lincecum pitching matchup in Game 1 of the NLCS, Monday night's Lee/Pettitte battle in the Bronx with somewhat more on the line should be no slouch, either.

All things considered, Pettitte has never consistently pitched at Cliff Lee's high level. He has never been the number one starter for the Yankees, nor the Astros earlier in his career. Pettitte is capable of shutting down dangerous playoff lineups like the Rangers, just not every time out. With Lee, you can feel free to expect that performance time after time. What I expect is something similar to the finale of the 2003 World Series, with Pettitte being out-pitched by Josh Beckett at old Yankee Stadium in a tough-luck 2-0 loss.

With that said, Pettitte gives the Yankees a puncher's chance to win tonight against Lee, but the Yankees will not be favored to win, and if they don't, then the pitching matchup in Game 4 becomes a problem.

The scheduled starter for the Yankees in Game 4 is A.J. Burnett. If you were wondering, this year the A in A.J. stands for Awful. His gluttonous 5.26 ERA and pedestrian 10-15 record was something Yankee fans hoped they would not have to bear in postseason play. Should the Yankees lose Game 3 to Cliff Lee, manager Joe Girardi will have to decide whether to start Burnett as scheduled or turn to C.C. Sabathia on three days rest after the Yankee ace bombed in the opener thanks to perhaps too much rest.

The Rangers' Game 4 starter is Tommy Hunter, the weakest of the Ranger starting pitchers, yet even he sports a 13-4 record and 3.73 ERA. The sense is that the Yankees will not win any game Burnett pitches in without an outrageous offensive output.

So it should be a no-brainer then to move Burnett to Game 5 if the Yankees fail in Game 3. Let's say then that C.C. wins on three days rest in that situation to tie the series, then A.J. would pitch Game 5 against Texas' solid number two starter, C.J. Wilson. In this scenario, a loss by Burnett would mean the Yankees would have to travel to Texas and win both games, begging the question of why was A.J. even added to the roster.

The answer may lie in memories of his postseason performances in 2009, where Burnett, while questionable on the road, was money in his three starts at home in the postseason. The hope still exists that he may be able to channel into that 2009 feel pitching to the home fans in postseason. Yet Yankee fans who have followed Burnett in 2010 will still tell you that theory is a bigger reach than the David Murphy home run that put the Rangers in command in Game 2.

While the gutty comeback of Game 1 reminded Texas of that ever-present Yankee mystique, the Rangers hitters have now lit up Yankee pitching for 12 runs in 2 games. The Yankees have proven their offense to be a relentless machine in this postseason, but even so, they certainly have their work cut out for them in the games ahead. Even with a situation as innocuous sounding as a 1-1 tied series coming home, don't be fooled. Texas is clearly in the driver's seat for the moment.

And if you need any other reason to wonder why, consider this. Should the Yankees battle enough to force the series to Game 7, despite the above mentioned series of circumstances, they have to see that terminator named Lee again in a hostile environment and in a single-elimination contest. Who would you take?

Posted by Bill Hazell at 6:47 PM | Comments (0)

October 17, 2010

Live By Superman, Die By Superman

Saturday witnessed some pretty large upsets in the college football world, including the No. 1 team losing for the second week in a row, as well as No. 5 Nebraska nose diving against unranked Texas.

Let it be known that Ohio State heading into Camp Randall is no easy fight. The Badgers are a really good team, but when you're No. 1 in the country, you are expected to win, no excuses.

Former No. 1 Alabama was also on the road when they lost to South Carolina.

Nebraska doesn't have that excuse. They were playing at home against Texas, who has looked pretty dismal at times this year.
So what is going on here? Is it simply parity? Or is there a reason some of these teams are losing?

What do these teams all have in common?

A superman. A Heisman trophy candidate. At least a name that has graced the list in our gossip.

In Nebraska, Taylor Martinez is king. No, he's not really a quarterback, but since when has Nebraska football been about passing? In the first five games, Martinez rushed for 737 yards (147.4 per game) and 12 touchdowns. His passing wasn't amazing, but it wasn't laughable. It was serviceable for Nebraska football.

On Saturday, Martinez rushed 13 times for 21 yards. In the passing game, he was 4-for-12 for 63 yards. He didn't score a touchdown. He didn't do anything. While typically being responsible for more than the majority of the offensive attack, he helped them achieve 84 total yards.

Why do you think Nebraska lost? Because supermen are fallible. They make mistakes. They have bad games. They can't be the sole source of offensive production.

The same holds true for Ohio State and Terrelle Pryor. The junior quarterback has improved in every category this season. His touchdown passes and passing yards are up. His interceptions are down. His rushing statistics are also better. In 2008, he averaged 4.5 yards per carry. In 2009, 4.8. In 2010, 6.2.

But Pryor is still very hit or miss. Against Miami in the second game of the season, Pryor was 12-for-27 for 233 yards and a touchdown. It was serviceable, but a completion percentage of 44% isn't going to cut it. His legs did the talking in that game, as he rushed 20 times for 113 yards and a score.

Against Illinois, a game that was too close for the talent discrepancy, Pryor again struggled in the passing game, going 9-for-16 for a whopping 76 yards. He threw 2 scores and 1 interception. Again, his legs (and the defense) led them to victory as he rushed 11 times for 104 yards.

Against Indiana last week, his arm did the talking, as he went 24-for-30 for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns. His legs worked in reverse, as he had 3 rushes for -19 yards.

And finally against Wisconsin, neither his arm nor his legs got it done and the result was of course a loss. Pryor was 14-of-28 for 156 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception. He rushed 18 times for 56 yards.

In Alabama, everyone expected some brilliant things from Mark Ingram, but injury has kept him from his potential.

In 2009, Ingram amassed just shy of 2,000 yards from scrimmage and collected 20 touchdowns in a Heisman-winning effort. If he halves those totals in 2010, I think he'll be lucky. His inability to be at a true 100% perhaps cost Alabama its shot at remaining unbeaten.

So the question is, who is next to fall? Perhaps Cameron Newton at Auburn has it coming? We've already seen Denard Robinson of Michigan is human in losses to Michigan State and Iowa.

LaMichael James looks pretty untouchable with Oregon, but they have a far more balanced attack, perhaps they'll survive.

Then there's Boise State's Kellen Moore, who keeps having nearly perfect games. How he failed to win the Heisman in 2009 with 39 passing touchdowns to 3 interceptions is baffling to me, but he looks to have similar numbers this year. He's a bit down in yards and touchdowns, but still with minuscule interceptions.

Of all the teams who are undefeated and have a superman running the show, I think Auburn is the most vulnerable, not because Newton is worse than James or Moore, but because he is the offense at Auburn. Oregon and BSU have more balanced attacks and don't rely on one person solely for offensive power.

James and Moore are the leaders of their offenses. They make things happen and will continue to do so, but Oregon and BSU can survive games where these two don't play at 100%. Do you think Auburn can survive without Newton putting up huge numbers? I have my doubts.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 2:04 PM | Comments (0)

October 14, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 6

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-3)

It's a homecoming of sorts for Michael Vick, only the "home" is coming to him in his new home of Philadelphia. The Falcons bring a 4-1 record and the NFC South lead to Philly to face the 3-2 Eagles, who are locked in a three-way tie for first in the NFC East.

"It would be way too obvious to call this a 'dogfight,'" said Mike Smith, "so let's just say the game has the feel of a bowl game, probably one called the 'Pit Bowl.'

Honestly, I was touched by Michael Vicks heart-to-heart conversation with Jim Mora, Jr. on NFL Network. That interview moved me ... away from my television. Heck, I'd much rather see an interview run by Jim Mora, Sr., in which he asks the questions, all relating to the playoffs. Playoffs?! Playoffs?! I'm asking you about playoffs?"

The Falcons nipped the Browns in Cleveland, 20-10, overcoming the Dawg Pound and a determined Browns squad. The task gets significantly harder in Philadelphia, where there is no Dawg Pound, but there is an in-house jail.

"That in-house jail has served us well," said Andy Reid. "And me especially. It made a nice day care facility for my misbehaving sons."

"But let's talk about the Falcons and Eagles. Alfred Hitchcock once made a movie called The Birds. No, it wasn't a cinematic portrayal on the history of obscene gestures in the Tennessee Titans organization. Actually, I'm not sure what it was about, but I'm sure it had something to do with birds. The point is, there was suspense. And there's suspense every week when I announce my starter at quarterback, suspense about just how many announcements I'll make."

Vick starts, but is clearly not himself, unable to display the same elusiveness that allowed him to run a major East Coast dog-fighting operation under the Falcons very noses for years.

Atlanta wins, 26-23.

Seattle @ Chicago (-7)

The 4-1 Bears, fresh off a 23-6 win at Carolina, host the 2-2 Seahawks and head coach Pete Carroll, who has Seattle in the thick of the NFC West race. Of course, "in the thick of it" isn't that impressive of a statement, seeing that the 0-5 49ers are still "in the thick of it."

"Okay, so the Bears might underestimate us," said Carroll. "Guess what? Two can play that game. We certainly have the right to underestimate the Bears. Their four wins have come against teams with a collective 5-14 record. That also happens to be my record against the NCAA.

But we've got a new weapon, running back Marshawn Lynch, whom we acquired in a trade with the Buffalo Bills. You might not know this, but I recruited Marshawn when I was head coach at USC. Well, I finally got my man, and just like at USC, I had to pay to get him."

Jay Cutler returns to the Bears lineup after missing the Carolina game with a concussion. His replacement, Todd Collins, tossed 4 interceptions against the Panthers and posted a quarterback rating of 6.2 for the game.

"Todd's performance had us all asking 'What gives?'" Cutler said. "The answer, of course, is 'Todd.' Obviously, as a Bear quarterback, you don't necessarily need a concussion to have no clue.

But, as a Bear quarterback, you need to have a good defense, one that takes no offense at 'no offense.'"

Chicago wins, 27-17.

Kansas City @ Houston (-5)

Hallelujah! The surviving members of the 1972 Miami Dolphins can breathe easier, or at least as well as their deteriorating lungs will allow, after the Colts hung a 19-9 defeat on the previously unbeaten Chiefs. Kansas City was the league's last remaining undefeated team, and will look to rebound against the 3-2 Texans.

"I think we accounted for ourselves well against the Colts," said Todd Haley. "We held Peyton Manning without a touchdown pass, the first team to do so this year. So, as moral victories go, we're still undefeated this year.

But moral victories really don't matter in this league. But amoral victories do. Texting a picture of your wiener to an unwilling female and getting away with it? That's what's called an amoral victory. Apparently, Jenn Sterger ratted Favre out for his unwanted advances. Of course, it's clearly not the first time a 'pass' from Favre has been intercepted.

But what is the NFL going to do about it. Not much judging by the urgency of an investigation. The NFL, in this case, is a lot like Ines Sainz at a Jets practice — they're pussy-footing around."

The Texans are 3-2, along with everyone else in the AFC South, the AFC's most competitive division. They are 2-0 on the road, but only 1-2 at Reliant Stadium.

"Things are wide-open in the AFC South," said Matt Schaub. "And that can mean only one thing: the Colts just aren't the same. Now, we're a lot like the Chiefs. People aren't sure whether we're playoff material, or whether we'll fade late in the season. So, the more we win, the more we make believers. Should we lose, our post-season aspirations simply become 'make-believe.'"

The Houston defense makes a stand, as Mario Williams sacks Matt Cassell twice, and the Texans force 4 turnovers.

Houston wins, 27-17.

Baltimore @ New England (-3)

Randy Moss has been out of New England for almost two weeks, yet his impact is still being felt in Foxboro. Word around the campfire is that Tom Brady and Moss engaged in a shouting match in which Brady told Moss to shave his beard. Moss countered by telling Brady to cut his hair because he looked like a girl.

"In Randy's defense," Bill Belichick said, "he did say Tom looked like a 'very attractive' girl. In Tom's defense, Randy's beard was getting a little nappy. When I see cornrows and a hobo's beard, one image comes to mind: homeless rapper.

But whether the conflict actually happened or not matters not; it will still go down as the greatest 'hair versus hair' match since Ric Flair and Gorgeous Jimmy Garvin squared off in 1981. In actuality, when we traded Moss, it became a 'loser leaves town' match."

The 4-1 Ravens lead the AFC North, relying on their usual brand of punishing defense accented with an improving offense showing signs of explosiveness. In last year's wild card round of the playoffs, the Ravens dismantled the Patriots, 33-14, and expect the Patriots to seek a measure of revenge.

"With no Randy Moss," said Ray Lewis, "the Patriots have no vertical threat. That means I'll have to keep an extra keen eye on Wes Welker. I'm sure Welker will be working his usual underneath routes, which is the area I patrol, and once I lay a shoulder into his sternum, he immediately becomes a 'horizontal' threat."

The Patriots replaced Moss with Deion Branch, whom they acquired from the Seahawks for a fourth-round pick. So who got the better end of that deal? That's easy — the Ravens.

Baltimore wins, 26-20.

San Diego @ St. Louis (+7)

Despite 29 first downs and 506 total yards, the Chargers still lost in Oakland, falling 35-27 to the Raiders, who scored on a fumble return, a blocked punt, and a safety on a blocked punt. San Diego's top-rated offense is out-gaining opponents by an average of over 200 yards per game, yet they're 2-3 and floundering at the bottom of the AFC West.

"This offense is so potent," said Philip Rivers, "it even scores for the other team. That's potency. So I guess what we need is some impotency, which I thought is what we acquired when we got rid of Antonio Cromartie, whom they call 'Daddy Day Care.' Cromartie's with the Jets now. So really, nothing's changed for him. Just like when he was a Charger, he won't be tackling Jets.

The good news is I'm on pace to throw for 5,632 yards this year, which would shatter Dan Marino's record of 5,084. The bad news is Kyle Orton is on pace to shatter that record as well, which would break my heart. Incidentally, the Chargers and Broncos are on pace not to make the playoffs."

After a 2-2 start, the Rams came tumbling back to reality in a 44-6 loss at Detroit, becoming the Lions first victims. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford threw 2 interceptions and looked confused against the Lions defense.

"Nobody ever said there wouldn't be growing pains," said Bradford. "But I'd rather have growing pains than groin pains, which occur when you're busted texting pictures of your nether regions to an acquaintance. What does one expect in return when doing that? A photo spread. Brett Favre should be careful, lest he see part of his season snatched away from him."

San Diego wins, 37-20.

Miami @ Green Bay (-3)

After last Sunday's 16-13 overtime loss in Washington, the Packers have lost two of their last three and don't resemble the team that many have pegged for postseason glory. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a concussion against the 'Skins, adding to the Packers' already serious injury situation.

"Aaron was knocked for a loop on a helmet-to-helmet hit," Mike McCarthy said. "We want to be cautious, and Aaron's been through the requisite concussion test, which we call 'cheese grading,' so he will likely miss Sunday's game. Yeah, I know Brett Favre would have sniffed some smelling salts and wobbled back on the field, but look at what he's become. The man is senile. He texted pictures of his crank to an innocent lady. For Christ's sake, this is Brett Favre. You would think he would put a little more thought into it before he made such a decision."

The Dolphins have had two weeks to digest their second half collapse in a 41-14 loss to the Patriots, a loss that led to the firing of their special teams coach, John Bonamego.

"That was truly the worst special teams performance I've ever seen," said Tony Sparano. "It was so bad, I had to resist my Italian urge to take Bonamego to the Everglades and whack him, and instead simply fire him.

Now John wasn't too happy about his firing. I think it was completely justified, but he didn't. He even got a lawyer involved, and tried to file an injunction, but it was blocked."

The Packers are hurting. There are so many injuries on the team, it's like a veritable 'Lambeau Leaper Colony.' And Miami's Brandon Marshall is due for a big game. Otherwise, we might see the NFL's version of "Eminem" — a "Marshall Meltdown."

Miami wins, 19-16.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay (+4)

Somewhat lost in the hoopla surrounding the Chiefs' 3-1 start is the identical record of the upstart Buccaneers, who, at 3-1, are challenging for the division lead in the NFC South. Tampa stunned the home-standing Bengals 24-21 last week, turning a late interception of Carson Palmer into Connor Barth's game-winning 31-yard field goal.

"Carson Palmer's passing is a lot like Brett Favre's version of events," said Tampa cornerback Aqib Talib, whose name translates loosely to "Say What?" in Arabic. "It's riddled with inaccuracies."

We know the Saints are hurting, but we know they'll give us everything they've got, and more. We'll have all of Tampa pulling for us to come through. There will be upwards of 65,000 people jammed into Raymond James Stadium. We know Ray J's been in a lot of people, but not nearly as many people as have been in Ray J.

We like our chances, but I won't go so far as to guarantee a Buccaneer win. Should we lose, then I'd look like a pillage idiot."

The Saints are in the midst of the "Super Bowl hangover," an affliction riddled with turnovers, a terribly unbalanced offense, and shanked 29-yard field goals, among other things. Drew Brees threw 3 interceptions that contributed to a 30-20 loss to the Cardinals, leaving the Saints 3-2.

"It's one thing to text a single photo of your penis," said Sean Payton. "It's another thing when you send another. That makes you a 're-peter.' But, what do you know, that's what we want to be, just without the obscene photos."

Tampa jumps to an early 10-0 lead, but the Saints play like Super Bowl champs, at least for the last four minutes of the game, and win, 27-24.

Detroit @ NY Giants (-9½)

The roller coaster ride that is the New York Giants is cresting, this time after a 34-10 dismantling of the home-standing Texans gave the G-Men their second straight impressive win. Eli Manning threw for 297 yards, and completed 12 passes to his favorite target Hakeem Nicks, including 2 touchdowns. New York looks to keep the momentum on the upswing with a win over the visiting Lions.

"Hakeem has become my go-to guy," said Manning. "It would make sense to call him 'The Dream.' That's been taken, so I prefer he go by Hakeem 'New York' Nicks.

Now, things are looking good for the Giants. Our defense is playing lights out, which means Tom Coughlin is still not smiling, but frowning less. If he were purple and worked for McDonalds, they'd call him 'Grimace.'

The Giants secondary will have to contend with Calvin Johnson, Detroit's 6'5" wide receiver whose hands are unusually large, yet still too small to grasp the NFL's arcane rules involving the "process" of catching the ball.

"Yes, the Giants defense is clicking," Johnson said. "And I'll give them their due, especially their secondary, when I declare them the 'toast of the town,' once I make my first jump ball touchdown catch in the right corner of the end zone."

Ana ailing Johnson plays hurt, and contributes, with 6 receptions and a touchdown catch. But Shaun Hill faces a mountain of problems with the Giants' front four, which sacks him 6 times. Four Lions turnovers lead to 20 New York points.

Giants win, 38-23.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-11½)

Ben Roethlisberger returns to action, just a week after his most impressive completion, of a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's conduct policy. The Steelers are 3-1 and hoping to keep pace with the division-leading Ravens.

"I'm looking forward to getting back on the field," said Roethlisberger. "Trust me, I like to watch, but it's been difficult watching my teammates and not being able to contribute. I know the Browns are hoping my game is a little rusty, but I truly expect to play well, and I expect a convincing Steelers victory, which will allow me to call one of my favorite plays — the kneel-down."

The Browns may face the formidable Steeler defense with Jake Delhomme running the show at quarterback. Delhomme, still bothered by the effects of a sprained ankle, was pressed into duty last week, taking over after Seneca Wallace was hurt in Cleveland's 20-10 loss to the Falcons. Delhomme promptly threw 2 interceptions, one of which was returned for the game-clinching score.

"We've had our share of quarterback problems," said Eric Mangini. "Wallace's injury left us no option but to insert Delhomme. You could say we had 'no choice' but to play Delhomme, which is also what we say when Jake is our first option.

But we're going to start rookie Colt McCoy this Sunday. Sure, it's asking a lot to throw a rookie into his first start against one of the league's most feared defenses. That's why I'm not telling him until kickoff. Anyway, weren't Sundays made for sacrifice?"

McCoy gets the start, and the nerves show. The Longhorn becomes the "green horn." If you thought McCoy's voice was high-pitched in his pre-draft interview with John Gruden, then you won't be surprised to hear that his play-calling on Sunday shattered the windows in several luxury boxes.

Pittsburgh wins, 26-9.

NY Jets @ Denver (+3)

The pass-happy Broncos welcome the Jets to Mile High Stadium at Invesco Field, where Josh McDaniels' fist-pumping exuberance faces little resistance in the thin air of Denver. The Broncos are 2-3, and chasing the upstart Chiefs in the AFC West standings.

"It will take more than just air to stifle my enthusiasm," McDaniels said. "I wish I could say the same about our running game."

But what better time to throw than now against the Jets, with Darrelle Revis slowed by a hamstring injury? Heck, he might not even play. If he does, we'll be sure to run some deep patterns on him, just to test that hamstring. If he's not totally healthy, then we'll see something from him that you're not likely to see from Antonio Cromartie, father of eight children — a noticeable 'limp."

The 4-1 Jets lead the AFC East and are playing like a team on a mission to win the Super Bowl. In last Monday's 29-20 win over the Vikings, New York's defense stifled the Vikes for much of the game, and moved the ball consistently with a balanced attack.

"We're confident running the ball," said Rex Ryan, "and we're confident passing the ball. LaDainian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene are too very different running backs. On the other hand, Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards are two similar receivers. They both have 'chronic' problems."

Jets win, 23-22.

Oakland @ San Francisco (-6½)

After last week's 27-24 loss to the Eagles, the struggling 49ers are one of only three winless teams in the league, along with the Bills and Panthers. Again, turnovers killed San Fran's chances, with 5 giveaways dooming their chances to register in the win column. Rumors are swirling about the security of head coach Mike Singletary's job, although team president Jed York gave the team a vote of confidence when he guaranteed the 49ers would win the division.

"I could stand here," said York, "and tell you that Singletary's job is so shaky it registered on the Richter scale. Or I could tell you that we've changed the name of this region to the 'Bay Err-ea.' Or, I could resign my self to firing off words that are synonymous with 'quitting,' but I'll surrender that thought, hang it up, my coat, that is, and leave the coaching to Singletary.

Mike's a stand-up guy, and he's taken accountability, just as you would expect from a bald-headed, bespectacled former linebacker in a form-fitting mock turtleneck."

Tom Cable knows all about tenuous coaching positions. He's been coach of the Raiders for three years now, and faces questions about his future almost on a daily basis.

"I'm a lot like Al Davis," Cable said. "I wake up every day not knowing if it will be my last. But I know what Singletary is going through. There's intense pressure to win, and you have to make tough decisions regarding your staff. With Mike, it's whether or not to fire a coach. With me, it's whether or not to punch a coach."

Only in the NFC West can you be 0-5 and have a win put you right back in the hunt. It's time to man up. The 49ers have let wins slip away. It's like they've been shooting themselves in the foot with a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and it can blow your head clean off, not to mention your foot. So the Niners have to ask themselves one question: "do we feel lucky?"

They do, punks. Joe Nedney's 49-yard field goal attempt hits the crossbar and goes through, giving San Fran a 23-20 win.

Dallas @ Minnesota (-1½)

So did Brett Favre text explicit photos of himself to Jenn Sterger back in 2008 when Favre was a Jet and Sterger was a Jets employee? Did the text come with a message that read "You've got male?" Did Sterger text Favre back, asking "I thought you were big in New York?"

"It doesn't make no never mind to me if Brett sent pictures of himself to her," said Randy Moss. "All I care about is whether Brett can get me the ball. Not via a text message, but on the field.

But I have to know one thing: when Brett took those pictures, were his famous words, 'Say dick cheese?'

Anyway, if Brett did, in fact, send those pictures, I can't fault him for anything but his method of delivery. Obviously, when sending pictures of your business, you should utilize the proper social networking channels, such as Facebook, or Tweiner.

As you know, the Cowboys famously passed on me in the 1998 NFL draft. I've played for three teams in my NFL career, but that has to be the fastest I've ever worn out my welcome."

The 1-3 Cowboys are reeling after a 34-27 loss to the Titans in Dallas, a loss attributable to penalties and turnovers, which have plagued the team all year.

"First of all," said Tony Romo, "I wouldn't think of texting such photos to a female. Oh no, I'm more of a hand-delivery guy. See, our offensive line aren't the only ones with a holding problem."

It's not often fans are treated to a game between the two best 1-3 teams in the NFL, but that's what we've got, and it all goes down in Mall of America Stadium. One team will emerge at 2-3, while the other will tumble to 1-4. Of course, that's assuming there's no tie. If the Vikes have anything to say about it, there won't be a tie. Last Monday's game in the Meadowlands showed us that Minnesota inexplicably goes for the tie in the third quarter, and not the fourth, when it matters.

But there will be no tie. The Vikings unleash their pass rush on a helpless Romo, and Favre, despite his numerous distractions, plays a manly game. After all, he's a Wrangler guy, and let's face it, Romo's a Jordache guy.

Minnesota wins, 30-24.

Indianapolis @ Washington (+3)

Suffice it to say Peyton Manning has never texted photos of anything to a female acquaintance, unless you count snapshots of a particularly confusing zone defense he encountered against New England that he sent to a friend, asking for her advice.

"I'll reluctantly admit this," Manning said, "but once I took a Polaroid of my package, taped it to the top of my sneaker, and told Eli to look at my shoe. I must have been 11 at the time, but I remember that moment fondly as my first 'check down.'

We know the Redskins are tough to beat at home. And their defense is playing well. Now, I can't say I'm unhappy with Albert Haynesworth's limited role in the defense. He knows me very well from his days as a Titan, and he was always a tough player to game plan for. So Mike Shanahan isn't the only one that's called Albert a 'nuisance.' So what if Albert doesn't endorse a defense as well as he endorses a check? He can still be very disruptive."

No one prepares for a game like Manning. From the film study, to the practice repetitions, to the team meetings, down to the Gatorade spritz before the game, no one is as ready as Manning.

Manning throws for 245 yards and two scores, and Indy wins, 26-21.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+3)

There's a four-way tie in the AFC South, forged when the Texans lost last week while their three division counterparts all won. On Monday, the Titans and Jags square off to remain on top, while Houston and Indy face tough tests against Kansas City and Washington, respectively.

"We're 3-2," said Jeff Fisher, "so we can count our wins and losses on one hand. Even more impressively, we can express our opinion of officials with one finger. Between owner Bud Adams and defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil, this franchise has the quickest trigger fingers in the game."

Jacksonville's Jack Del Rio knows the key to the Jaguars fortunes is stopping Vince Young and Chris Johnson, the Titans' dynamic duo.

"Johnson may have danced on the Dallas star," said Del Rio, "but there will be no jig on the Jag. I may or may not have put up a bounty on Johnson to encourage my defense to hit Johnson in the teeth. So the first Jaguar to 'strike gold' may or may not win a cash prize."

The Jags contain Johnson, but Young throws for 2 scores and runs for another.

Tennessee wins, 27-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:28 PM | Comments (0)

October 13, 2010

Bobby's World Stopped

Stoic to the end in his public visage, if a man who has been ejected a record 158 times for arguing with baseball's judicial tyrants can be called "stoic." Bobby Cox could bring himself to do no more Monday than flash a shy, close-lipped smile, and a thumbs-up to a Turner Field audience that had just watched an only-too-familiar sight.

Back in the postseason for the first time in five years, their Atlanta Braves were exiting much the same way they had done over a record-setting tenure therein — with nothing much of anything to show for having gotten there in the first place.

This wasn't the way Braves fans or many baseball fans otherwise wanted to see Cox conclude his quiet reign as the manager who returned the Braves to greatness and kept them there for the most part.

"It's going to be strange to come here next year and Bobby Cox won't be managing the team," said San Francisco Giants manager Bruce Bochy, whose charges had just run the Braves out of Dodge with a 3-2 Game Four win to finish a National League division series that really could have gone either way — all four games were decided by a single run, and nobody suffered anything resembling an overwhelming defeat.

"I've always looked up to him, not just how he manages the game, but his team, how professional they are," Bochy continued. "They are always in uniform. They play the game right."

Bochy was being overly kind in his respect. These Braves actually made these Giants sweat just a little bit more than is likely to be remembered for their trip to the National League Championship Series. The Braves' defensive shortcomings and the Giants' slightly stronger pitching made the biggest difference.

Allow that Cox was hobbled by one or two key injuries too many. Maybe the key of them all was losing Martin Prado to a late-September hip pointer. That compelled Cox to bring in Brooks Conrad, poor good hit/weak fielding devil, and good field/no-hit (.138) Diory Hernandez, in order to deploy Omar Infante, a multi-position player by trade, at third.

Nothing, though, could have overcome the point that their stout pitching just wasn't quite stout enough, their bullpen wasn't close enough to the Giants' level, and their bats — which were among the National League's most lethal May through August, though sleepy enough in April and September — weren't quite enough to threaten carving their names into any Giant foreheads.

How anemic did the Braves' bats become? They hit .175, had nothing better than a .214 on-base percentage, and slugged a mere .263 all series long. The Giants weren't exactly executioners at the plate, either. In fact, the Giants hit a mere .212 on the series, with a mere .288 OBP and a mere .295 SLG.

And the two teams' pitching was a lot closer than you might have thought while watching them. The Giants threw a 1.66 ERA at the Braves throughout the series ... but the Braves threw a 1.95 ERA right back at the Giants. Both teams, moreover, compiled a 1.27 WHIP all series long. The total scoring, when all was said and done, was 11-9, Giants.

Three unearned runs made all the difference in the world for the Giants getting to send Tim Lincecum out to face Roy Halladay in Game 1 of the League Championship Series. And all the difference in the world for just when Bobby Cox's retirement would begin officially.

Cox is still likely to end up in Cooperstown, though with a legacy bound to be debated for time immemorial. He was never renowned as a master tactician; he was too often caught staying strictly enough by the book where a little daring might have made a lot of difference. Or not reading the book deeply enough.

It only began in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series. He pulled Game 1 starter/loser Charlie Liebrandt, the ancient left-handed knuckleballer, back from the doghouse and sent him to work the 11th in relief. All he remembered was Liebrandt striking out Kirby Puckett in Game 1. He didn't stop to think that Liebrandt had gotten lucky against the American League's best 1991 hitter against lefthanders, since the last time Puckett faced Liebrandt in American League competition, it ended with Puckett taking a trip around the bases. The fourth pitch of Liebrandt's Game Seven assignment took another flight over the fence. Off Puckett's bat.

Cox's long and mostly distinguished career all but resurrected baseball in the South. (Take a look, for one example, at how many of these Giants grew up rooting for his Braves. Buster Posey, the heralded rookie, did. Game Four starter Madison Bumgarner grew up idolizing Tom Glavine, and it showed Monday — he pitched like nothing short of a young man who'd taken direct instruction from the Hall of Famer in waiting.)

It ended with the tying and winning runs stranded on base. With his Braves still not having won an elimination game since ... 1995, the only year in which he finished a season with a World Series ring on his and his players' fingers. And with Cox yet again showing too much faith in his players and not enough faith in the probabilities. Why else would he let Derek Lowe talk him into letting him hang in a little while longer when the veteran probably should have come out with a 2-1 lead and one out after a stout Game 4 start?

Cox otherwise has five pennants (all with the Braves) to show for managing sixteen teams to the postseason, including a somewhat unlikely collection of Toronto Blue Jays in 1985. That gives him slightly more to show than Leo Durocher on the field, but Cox's isn't the kind of character that might compel the appropriate voters to wait until he's gone to his reward to enshrine him.

He might have benched hapless Brooks Conrad for Game 4,, but he didn't doghouse him. He sent Conrad out to pinch hit leading off the bottom of the ninth. Conrad may be wearing the unfair goat horns for this set, thanks to his harrowing Game Three — the Braves practically had it won, thanks to Hinske hitting one out in the eighth, before Conrad's sad Bill Buckner re-enactment in the top of the ninth. But the Braves got here in the first place largely because he played as well as he did as a utility man and, not coincidentally, became the first rookie to hit two pinch-hit grand slams in a season.

And he should have earned respect aplenty for being a standup man after Game 3 and most of Monday pre-game, until he finally choked on emotion and excused himself, unable to speak any longer, genuinely heartsick over what he thought he might have been helping to cost Cox.

He wasn't even close to alone. Even if he did open the Atlanta ninth Monday by flying out to center field.

Jason Heyward might have been the National League's most talked-about rookie who wasn't named Stephen Strasburg. The good news: he finally awoke in Game 4 with two hits. The bad news: They proved meaningless — a two-out single in the second off which he was stranded, after he got second on the house (thanks to Mike Fontenot's throwing error); a one-out single in the sixth that got him nothing, but forced for the side by Troy Glaus.

Heyward also hit twice with men in scoring position and came up empty, fouling out for the side behind the plate in the third (with the Braves holding a tenuous enough 1-0 lead), and striking out for the side with pinch-runner Nate McLouth (for Brian McCann, whose sacrifice fly sent Infante home earlier) aboard second in the eighth. Final series batting average: .124.

Lowe was once the man on the mound for all three clinching wins in the Boston Red Sox's stupefying 2004 postseason run. He had already pitched a stout enough game on the wrong side of Tim Lincecum's Game 1 masterpiece. Come Monday, Lowe pitched even better, no-hitting the Giants through five and a third and looking for moments enough as though he had a chance to join Halladay in an extremely select club.

Then Cody Ross hit one five or six rows into the left field seats with one out in the sixth. An inning later, after talking Cox into letting him hang in, Lowe ran out of his final fume of petrol. He walked Aubrey Huff, one of the Giants' veteran retreads, and watched sadly but knowingly when Posey was able to beat out a sharp rapper to Glaus at third that wasn't even going to draw a throw.

Once a World Series MVP (for the 2002 Anaheim Angels), Glaus managed one strikeout and one stranded runner in three at-bats, before Hernandez replaced him at third in a seventh-inning double switch. He handled the Posey rapper looking exactly the way he had looked turning a 10th-inning double play in Game 2, like a man wishing someone had planted a barf bag under the base for his immediate use.

When Lowe walked Pat Burrell to load the pads, his evening ended with a sympathetic pat on the rump from Cox and a sad view of his 2-1 lead going up in smoke. His relief, Peter Moylan, served up something Juan Uribe could cue up to shortstop, from here Alex Gonzalez (no relation to the one whose off-the-chest double play hopper miss helped cost the 2003 Cubs the pennant) threw wide enough to pull Infante off the pad at second while Huff helped himself across the plate, ending any double play hope and leaving the bases loaded for pinch-hitter Aaron Rowand (for Fontenot, a swishout) and Ross's RBI single scoring Posey.

The only reason the Giants didn't cash in more was that Burrell, not exactly renowned as a road runner these days, thought he had a clean shot at scoring behind Posey. Considering the Braves' series-long defencive anemia, it wasn't an unreasonable thought. Except that left fielder Matt Diaz got even more unreasonable, picking the right time to show the Braves weren't a complete collection of doddering defenders.

Diaz threw Burrell out at the plate with a little help from behind the dish, McCann withstanding the train-wreck to make the out stand. That kept the score 3-2. It might as well have been 13-2 considering the strength of the San Francisco bullpen. Bumgarner gave the Giants a start magnificent enough, keeping the game close enough for them to make it matter, and the bulls ran just enough to hold the Braves despite a little ninth-inning hair-raising at Brian Wilson's potential expense.

Rick Ankiel — whose eleventh-inning bomb produced the Braves' only win in the set as it was — drew a one-out walk. Eric Hinske — whose eighth-inning bomb looked like the prospective Game Three winner, until poor Conrad's third mishap of the evening a half-inning later — pinch hit for Hernandez and walked right behind Ankiel. Of all people, pitcher Tim Hudson ran for Hinske, but Cox could have sent Jesse Owens to pinch run and still see his managerial career end with the tier and winner stranded.

Wilson swished Infante and Miguel Cabrera grounded out to third, Uribe (who'd moved to third in a defensive switch in the seventh) throwing high enough to make Huff stretch but not pulling him off enough to lose the out and the trip to the NLCS.

Cox spoke one more time to his players after the game, some of whom had gotten only their first taste of life with Cox during Cox's final season of life managing the Braves. "I understand now," said Derrek Lee, who spent seven weeks with the Braves after a trade from the Chicago Cubs where he'd been a fan favorite, "why they've been to so many postseasons. Because he makes it so easy on his players. It's just a great atmosphere, a great, positive atmosphere to play baseball."

"When you see a legend talk to you," said closer Billy Wagner, who fell out of the division series thanks to yet another injury, and whose own distinguished career is ending, "I mean, you listen and you try to take in everything you can of his wisdom. He's one of a kind. There'll never be another Bobby Cox who'll have that much influence on your life and career, that even when you played against him you were a fan of the Braves."

Even the Giants had nothing but words of respect for the Braves' manager emeritus. "I saw them," Cox said after the game. "And I gave them a thumbs-up, too ... That was [a] nice gesture by the Giants. I love Bochy. He's one of the best guys in baseball. If we couldn't win, I'm glad he did."

Cox was always gracious in defeat. But that was the problem, Monday evening. Yet again, it was in defeat.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 10:40 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 30

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson increased his points lead over second-place Deny Hamlin with a third in the AutoMax 500 at California. Johnson started the day with an 8-point edge over Hamlin; J.J. left with a 36-point cushion.

"I increased my points lead by 28 points," Johnson said. "In NASCAR speak, that's a SAFER barrier."

But there's a reason they call this the 'Chase.' And that's because the 11 other drivers come 'after' me."

2. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished eighth at California, losing ground to points leader Jimmie Johnson, who finished third. Hamlin trails Johnson by 36 with six races left in the Chase, with a pivotal race at Charlotte Motor Speedway next on the schedule.

"Engine failures have taken their toll on Joe Gibbs Racing cars," said Hamlin. "Not only this year, but in years past. Apparently, JGR engines come with an expiration date, with that date being 'during the Chase.'"

3. Jeff Gordon — Gordon overcame a pit lane speeding penalty late in Sunday's race which ruined his shot at an elusive win. But he recovered to post a solid ninth-place finish, and moved up to fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings. Gordon now trails Jimmie Johnson by 85.

"Once again," Gordon said, "a mistake cost us a chance at winning. It seems that we've often been fast, but we're always slowed down by a mistake, whether by me or my crew. If you're looking for words to describe this season, I think 'Whoa is me' works just fine."

4. Tony Stewart — Stewart battled Jimmie Johnson on the final restart in the AutoMax 500, holding the No. 48 at bay while collecting his second win of the year, and one that salvaged his Sprint Cup title hopes. Stewart now trails Johnson by 107 in the point standings.

"There was 'Smoke' in California," Stewart said, "and, for once, it's not from a wildfire. We're hot right now; I just wish our misfortune at New Hampshire hadn't prevented us from adding fuel to the fire."

5. Kevin Harvick — Like Gordon, Harvick's day was offset by a pit road speeding penalty, but he still managed to finish seventh and keep Johnson in view. Harvick is 54 points behind Johnson with six races remaining.

"A pit road speeding penalty," Harvick said. "A failed inspection. A denied appeal. A phantom debris caution. NASCAR obviously has a problem with Richard Childress Racing. And NASCAR obviously doesn't like their decisions questioned. NASCAR touts its insistence that everyone follow the rules, but we here at RCR have found ourselves asking 'Are they playing fair?'"

6. Carl Edwards — Edwards No. 99 Aflac Ford suffered an ignition problem on lap 58 at California and stalled on the track, requiring a push to return to the pits. He finished 13 laps down in 34th, and now trails points leader Jimmie Johnson by 162.

"Let me tell you," said Edwards, "ignition problems are a real 'turn off.' I've heard of 'start and parkers,' but we might as well have been a 'starter and parker' in California."

And our chances to win the Sprint Cup are practically gone. They call me 'Cousin Carl,' and after the race in California, I'm ready to say 'uncle.'"

7. Kurt Busch — Busch was running 14th when David Ragan drifted up the track, pinching the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge to the outside wall and causing left-front fender damage and a blown tire. Busch limped to the pits and restarted 29th, and moved up to 21st by races end. Busch is sixth in the point standings, 140 out of first.

"The No. 6 UPS car left me nowhere to go," Busch said. "To say I was 'UPS-et' would be an understatement. It seems that, whether accidental or on purpose, other drivers can't stay away from the Busch brothers.

And speaking of 'odd attractions,' can someone explain why Kyle and I have fan clubs?"

8. Kyle Busch — Busch's engine blew on lap 155 and immediately declared his championship hopes over, ending what earlier had looked like a promising day in the AutoMax 500. He tumbled two spots places in the Sprint Cup point standings, and now faces a 187 point deficit to Jimmie Johnson.

"Hey, my engine isn't the only thing that quits," said Busch.

9. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer edged by Jimmie Johnson on the final lap at California, taking the runner-up spot in the AutoMax 500. Bowyer was leading with 10 laps remaining, but NASCAR spotted debris on the track and through a caution, bunching the field.

"Just another example," Bowyer said, "of NASCAR seeing something that wasn't there. I insist there was no debris on the track, so NASCAR had no right to throw a caution. For that reason, I'd like to file an appeal to 'reason.'"

10. Greg Biffle — Biffle, who won last week at Kansas, saw his chances of back-to-back wins vanish when his engine blew on lap 40, becoming the first of several Chasers to face trouble at California.

"It was a disastrous day for Roush Fenway Racing," Biffle said. "There were so many engines letting go, I thought a Cheech and Chong movie might break out."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:13 AM | Comments (0)

October 12, 2010

NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Since the start of the '06 season, players who average at least 1 interception per game, minimum 50 starts: Eli Manning (70 INT), Brett Favre (69), Jay Cutler (66), Ben Roethlisberger (61), Matt Hasselbeck (60), Tony Romo (60), Carson Palmer (56). Four of those seven were first-round draft picks, two of them (Manning and Palmer) the top choice overall. This might be coincidence, but about half of them are really despicable people, too.

* The Jets are +11 in turnover differential. No one else is better than +7. The 49ers are -10; no one else is worse than -6.

* I don't have anything new to say about Enrique Iglesias this week, except that I still think he sucks.

* The Broncos can obviously throw, but they've had three straight games under 50 rushing yards.

* I guess it's appropriate that Braves manager Bobby Cox goes into retirement with a playoff loss. He had a heck of a career, though.

***

ESPN's Monday Night Football booth doesn't make any sense. The booth is just too small for three people, and even with good announcers, it's a bit like watching a train wreck sometimes. This is actually the finest booth ESPN has put together in years. Mike Tirico is the best play-by-play man in the NFL, while Ron Jaworksi and Jon Gruden are both genuinely enthusiastic about football and generally know what they're talking about. The current booth is a massive upgrade over the intolerable Tony Kornheiser. So what's the problem?

1) Jaws has got to be the most risk-averse man in football. In Jaworski's book, you should never go for two, never take points off the board, never go for it on fourth down, never go for it on third down, never kick onside or fake a punt. Follow the Jaws recipe, and you'll never make a mistake, nor will you ever score.

2) Gruden says things that, frankly, don't make any sense. He's one of those "if it ain't true, it oughtta be" guys, who will make things up because they seem right, who may even ignore evidence that he's wrong. This bothers me much more than Jaworski's thing.

3) I'm going to start counting how many times per broadcast Gruden says "this guy". I'm not joking. I haven't decided whether or not to keep an additional tally for "this [player's name]..."

4) Gruden and Jaworski hate each other. Well, maybe not hate. They don't like each other, Gruden toward Jaws especially. I'm beginning to suspect Tirico and Gruden don't like each other, either, but that's less obvious. It makes for an awkward broadcast at times, though. Maybe it's just me, but I don't tune into MNF thinking, "I hope it's really awkward!"

5) The three-man booth is a terrible idea. For starters, ESPN presumably pays all three broadcasters, and I imagine the pay is pretty good. Why the hell are you paying three people to screw up a job two can do better? It's like they're constantly trying to recreate the original MNF, or the conflict between Howard Cosell and Don Meredith, which is a thing of the past, and should stay that way. I would love to see a booth of just Tirico and Jaworksi, but Tirico and Gruden would also be an upgrade. The three-man format just doesn't bring anything extra, except awkwardness.

Why does ESPN employ so many people to talk about football at the same time? In the booth, on the sideline, and in the studio, they should fire about half of those people. Well, all of them on the sideline, really. Especially Stuart Scott.

It's only Week 5, and there are no undefeated teams. Brackets show last week's rank.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers [1] — Rank 32nd — dead last — in passing yards per game. That's a little misleading. It's true that the Steelers haven't passed particularly well this season, but the much larger reason is that the Steelers have not passed particularly often in 2010. They're last in the league in pass attempts, by an enormous margin of 25 (Chiefs). That's 40 yards per game right there, just to bring them into a tie with the team ranked 31st. Compared to a team that's played five games, the Steelers have 40 fewer pass attempts than the closest competitor (Titans). Pittsburgh's starting quarterback was suspended for the beginning of the season (you may have heard about that), and the team controlled games with its defense and ground game, so there was simply no need to pass. Rest assured, this team can air it out if necessary.

2. Baltimore Ravens [2] — Won easily, and I think everyone understands at this point that they're a great team, so I hope no one will take it amiss if I point out a problem. The Steelers, I'm convinced, can win a game passing, especially with Big Ben coming back from suspension. I'm not as confident that the Ravens can win through the air. They had a big passing day against Cleveland, but not any of their other four opponents. Their leader in receiving yards this weekend, tight end Ed Dickson, had one catch. Joe Flacco has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season, and his passer rating (72.1) is lower than Jason Campbell's, about the same as Alex Smith's. The Ravens don't have to pass much, but when they do, they might be in trouble.

3. New York Jets [3] — Lead the NFL in rushing yards, with LaDainian Tomlinson fifth in the league. It's true that many RBs are washed up by age 31, but 11 have rushed for over 1,000 yards, including three (Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber, and Walter Payton) who ran for over 1,500, and another, Thomas Jones, who topped 1,400 for the Jets last year. Tomlinson is the sixth 31-year-old to rush for over 400 yards in the first five games of a season. He also has 17 receptions, tied for 2nd on the team. New York's clock management on Monday night was atrocious, completely unacceptable for a professional football team.

4. Atlanta Falcons [6] — Four wins in a row following their Week 1 loss in Pittsburgh, which was nothing to be ashamed of. Michael Turner had his best game of the season in Week 5, and Roddy White is finally getting the credit he deserves, but the true key to Atlanta's success has been its defense, which ranks second in the NFL in points allowed. A number of young players have stepped up to contribute, but John Abraham, who some fans thought was through after a down year in 2009 (his 10th season in the NFL), leads the team with 4 sacks and remains a premier playmaker.

5. New England Patriots [4] — Terrific offense, terrible defense. The Patriots lead the NFL in points per game, and are tied with San Diego for most touchdowns (despite having played only four games). Their defense, however, ranks near the bottom of the league in pretty much everything. The Patriots have been successful with unorthodox personnel moves for much of the past decade, but there's just no way you get better in the short term by trading Randy Moss. He wasn't very productive in the first four weeks, but he remains a unique talent, and — perhaps most importantly — defenses had to gameplan around him, opening up opportunities for everyone else on the offense. This ranking is almost certainly too high, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt until next week's home game against the Ravens.

6. Indianapolis Colts [7] — Last in the AFC South. Actually, all four teams are 3-2, but the Colts are technically at the bottom, because of their division record. The Indianapolis defense saved the game this week, given an uncharacteristically poor performance from the offense. The defense has been very up and down — great against the Giants, Broncos, and Chiefs, but awful against Houston and Jacksonville. None of the Colts' five opponents this season have scored between 15 and 30 points. Seriously, they've all been under 15 or over 30.

7. Tennessee Titans [8] — Similar to Pittsburgh, a team with good defense and running game, capable but limited air attack. Even when Steve McNair was an elite QB, Jeff Fisher never featured a pass-happy offense. Vince Young has played well this season, and the Titans can throw if they need to, but they'll keep the ball on the ground more than most teams, and it doesn't indicate anything wrong with Young or his receivers. Rob Bironas kicked a 52-yard field goal against Dallas, his 7th straight success from at least 50 yards out.

8. New York Giants [20] — This may be unbelievable to those of you who watched their Week 2 game against Indianapolis, but the Giants lead the NFL in pass defense. They're one of five teams who have held opponents to a collective passer rating under 70, and they're third in the NFL in sacks. This weekend, Osi Umenyiora picked up two sacks and a pair of forced fumbles, while Houston RB Arian Foster was held to the worst rushing performance (25 yards, 2.3 average) of his young career. Ahmad Bradshaw is fourth in the NFL in rushing, and Hakeem Nicks is in the top 10 for receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns.

9. Kansas City Chiefs [10] — This must drive Todd Haley a little nuts, but their passing game is really weak. KC ranks 27th in passing, and the team went 1-for-10 on third downs this weekend. The defense, however, has been very good, allowing just 14.2 points per game. Worthy of particular praise are Tamba Hali (4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles) and Brandon Flowers (6 pass deflections, 2 interceptions, INT return TD). The gameplan against Indianapolis, a balance of run and pass, probably didn't make sense given where both teams' strengths lie.

10. Washington Redskins [18] — Watching them, they don't seem like a top-10 team, and all of their wins could have gone the other way. Their margins of victory are 6, 5, and 3. They've actually been outscored this season. But they've beaten three good teams, and if a few things come together, they could contend for a postseason spot. Washington's defense has given up more yards than any other team in the league, but somehow ranks in the top 10 in points per game allowed. The blocking needs to shore up; McNabb was running for his life in the first half against Green Bay, and there's positively no running game. It's not that the blockers lack skill so much as that they miss assignments. Indianapolis is a terrible matchup for them, and I'll be surprised if Washington doesn't lose by double-digits.

11. Dallas Cowboys [9] — Okay, they're 1-3 and there are some obvious problems, particularly on the offensive line. They've played a tough schedule — all of their opponents are over .500 — and the games have been close, with no losses by more than 7. The Cowboys rank second in yards per game, but 16th in points per game. They need to start turning field position into points. Also, they still need to run more often. It amazes me that Jason Garrett is still calling plays for a professional football team.

12. Miami Dolphins [14] — Scored 14 or 15 points in three of their four games, recording a season-high 23 against ... the Jets? The Dolphins have already played everyone in the AFC East, and are so far 1-2 in the division. Nothing against Chad Henne, but they really should be playing backup QB Chad Pennington, who is always great in even-numbered years. Pennington in 2002, '04, '06, and '08: 12,798 yards, 74 TD, 38 INT, 93.5 passer rating. Pennington in 2003, '05, '07, and '09: 4,847 yards, 26 TD, 26 INT, 82.0 passer rating, broken hand, torn rotator cuff, high ankle sprain, torn throwing shoulder. Let's hope Pennington retires before '13.

13. Green Bay Packers [5] — Injuries are a huge issue. Aaron Rodgers' concussion is the chief concern in the short term, but for the season, injuries to the defense might be the larger problem. Clay Matthews III's hamstring issue reportedly is not serious, but the defense looked totally different (and far less effective) with him on the sideline. The Packers are second in the NFC in point differential (+30), trailing only Atlanta. Last season, they were second, as well (+164), trailing only New Orleans, but lost in the first round of the playoffs. In 2008, they were the only sub-.500 team with a positive point differential (+39), but finished 6-10. Blowing out bad teams is great, but they need to start winning some close games against good ones. Upcoming home games against Miami and Minnesota would be a good place to start. It looks like Rodgers probably won't play in Week 6, so the Packers should probably rank lower than this.

14. Philadelphia Eagles [19] — Another team with significant injury issues, most notably at quarterback (duh), left tackle (Jason Peters), and cornerback (Asante Samuel). The injury to Peters is probably the most worrisome, since his replacement, the improbably-named King Dunlap, got repeatedly schooled on Sunday night. Against San Francisco, Quintin Mikell led the team in tackles and recovered 2 fumbles, returning one for a touchdown. The Eagles are 0-2 at home, 3-0 on the road.

15. San Diego Chargers [13] — Tons of talent, losing record. Special teams are killing them. They lead the NFL in yards gained, and they're second-best in yards allowed, but San Diego's special teams have probably cost the team three games now. In the Week 1 loss to Kansas City, Dexter McCluster returned a punt for a touchdown, Javier Arenas took another 36 yards, and three others went for touchbacks, translating to 60 yards of key field position. In Week 3, Seattle's Leon Washington returned a pair of kickoffs for touchdowns. And this week, the Raiders blocked two punts, for a touchdown and a safety. Those were all close games, all contests in which the Chargers outplayed their opponents on offense and defense. I think they should start going for it on fourth down and kicking off onside. Every time.

16. Minnesota Vikings [15] — Brett Favre already holds a number of NFL records, and on Monday night, he added the dubious distinction of fumbling more times (163) than anyone else in history. He also added to existing leads in career passing TDs and INTs. Peyton Manning (who holds the record for TD/INT differential, +194) has a shot at the former, but no one will ever break Favre's record for career interceptions (324 and counting). Guaranteed. I don't care if the league goes to 20-game seasons, it's not happening. Favre already has as many INTs (7) as he did all of last season, and his 67.0 passer rating is 30th among qualifiers. He has thrown at least as many picks as touchdowns in three of the last five seasons, and is on pace for four out of six. He has also picked up a disturbing tendency to take sacks, which he used to be great about avoiding.

17. Houston Texans [12] — Last year, Matt Schaub seemed to establish himself as an elite quarterback, one of the seven true standouts at the position (Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers, Tony Romo). Schaub led the NFL in passing yards, placing fifth in TD passes and seventh in passer rating, with a terrific sack percentage of 4.1%. Through five weeks this season, Schaub doesn't look like a great QB. In only one game — Week 2 at Washington — has Schaub topped 300 yards or a 100 passer rating. He needs to return to form if Houston is serious about a playoff run.

18. Chicago Bears [21] — Yardage for the Bears' leading rusher each week: 50, 29, 37, 26, 166. On a day when Todd Collins somehow threw almost as many interceptions (4) as pass completions (6), Matt Forte came out of nowhere with a great rushing performance, and Chicago's defense bottled up the hapless Panthers en route to a comfortable 23-6 victory. Apart from Forte, the player who deserves particular recognition is defensive lineman Israel Idonije, who had three sacks and forced a fumble. The Bears' offense ranks in the bottom 10 in every major category right now, including dead last in third down percentage (21%). A forgiving schedule makes it perfectly realistic that the Bears might win 11 or 12 games this season. It probably won't be that many, but don't be surprised if this team is 8-3 or 9-2 going into Thanksgiving. The Bears travel to Green Bay in Week 17, for a game that could decide the NFC North. They should rank higher than this if Jay Cutler is back next week.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [25] — Opened 3-1, but all of their wins are against teams with losing records (combined 3-12, .167) and they've been outscored this season (74-80). Most worrisome might be their run defense, which got gashed for the second game in a row, giving up 143 yards to Rashard Mendenhall and 144 to Cedric Benson. I think they'll beat the Saints in Tampa next Sunday.

20. Denver Broncos [17] — Kyle Orton can be a divisive topic among NFL enthusiasts. For a long time, he was derided as a weak-armed, backup-quality understudy, a game manager who wouldn't mess things up too badly as long as you had a good defense and running game. More recently, a number of people came around to the idea that Orton might have evolved into a half-decent low-risk, low-reward starter. With his big numbers in 2010 (347 yds/gm, 97.8 rating), it may be time to go further. I'm one of the converted: I believe Orton is a top-10 QB right now. I'd take him ahead of Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, and several other perfectly good starting quarterbacks, including Jay Cutler. Forget the draft picks Chicago sent to the Broncos; Orton for Cutler, alone, may have been a rip-off. Not only does Orton look like the better player, his contract is $12 million cheaper.

21. Cincinnati Bengals [16] — While Terrell Owens posts numbers in line with his reputation (31 rec, 476 yds, 2 TD), Sideshow Chad is clearly number two (26 rec, 316 yds, 1 TD). Chad, who is four years younger, appears to have slowed down more than Owens. T.O.'s conditioning is legendary, but it seems more plausible that where Owens is a genuinely outstanding player, a likely Hall of Famer, Chad was simply a good receiver in a system that played to his talents, never a truly exceptional receiver the way Owens was. It's not that he's fallen farther, it's that he was never as high in the first place. I am in favor of forced sterilization for anyone who watches their new tv show.

22. Cleveland Browns [22] — Ranked one spot below a team they beat a week ago, which I don't like to do. But (a) the Bengals have more wins, and (b) Seneca Wallace is hurt. I've long argued that Wallace is underrated, a quality backup who could start for a below-average offense. Wallace's 88.5 passer rating is nearly twice as high as Jake Delhomme's (48.2) with the same blockers and receivers. The Browns are 1-4, but all of their losses are to teams with winning records (combined 14-4, .778), and all by 10 points or less.

23. New Orleans Saints [11] — I don't like changing a team's ranking so drastically in one week, but I've been giving them the benefit of the doubt until now. Forget for a moment that they're the defending champs. You have a team that has been outscored against opponents with a combined winning percentage of .333 (8-16). Playing a pair of teams that are now both 0-5, they won by a combined 5 points. They can't run, can't protect the ball, and aren't forcing turnovers. They lost to the Cardinals, and they look worse every week. If the Raiders or Lions were off to that kind of start, most people rank them about 28th. Now look at the injury list; it's a mile long. Most of the listings are "Probable," but this doesn't even include players like Darren Sharper and Clint Ingram (on the Physically Unable to Perform list), and it does include the team's best pass rusher, top two running backs, and three DBs, all "Questionable" or "Out." This is where Super Bowl hangovers and that absurd Super Bowl loser's "curse" come from: playing 19 or 20 games and trying to keep everyone healthy the next year. There are still plenty of talented players on the roster, but half of them aren't playing. This isn't the team that won a championship in February: a lot of its best players aren't on the field.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars [27] — David Garrard is all-or-nothing. In all three wins this season, his passer rating was over 120. In the losses, both by 25 points, his ratings were 62.7 and 38.9. Jacksonville's defense was shockingly ineffective against the punchless Bills, but the offense came alive to deliver the win. The Jaguars are fourth in the NFL in rushing.

25. Seattle Seahawks [23] — Acquired Marshawn Lynch for a song. Well, fourth- and sixth-round draft choices, really, but Chris Mortensen and Jay Glazer report that Seahawks GM John Schneider did sing a song to Bills GM Marv Levy and owner Ralph Wilson to help seal the deal.

26. Detroit Lions [28] — Lead the NFC in scoring. No joke, they actually have twice as many points as the Vikings (who have only played four games) and Panthers (who have played all five). Credit obviously goes to rookie RB Jahvid Best and a high-flying pass attack, but don't forget about 40-year-old kicker Jason Hanson, who scored 14 points this weekend, including 47- and 48-yard field goals. Hanson, who led the NFL in field goals of 50+ yards over the last decade, is seventh all-time in scoring and shows little sign of slowing down.

27. Arizona Cardinals [30] — Carolina's offense is uniquely ineffective right now, but the Cardinals — an offensive juggernaut with Kurt Warner — are next in line, 31st in yards per game. LaRod Stephens-Howling returned the opening kickoff 60 yards this weekend; his other return went for 48 yards. This guy does good things with the ball in his hands. He's listed at 5'7", 185 lbs, which is tiny in the NFL, but I don't see why the Cardinals can't use him as a Reggie Bush-style RB/WR/KR. Why not give this guy a chance to make some plays, and see if he can't open things up for the rest of the team while he's at it? With the offense sputtering and the NFC West up for grabs, I don't see how they can afford not to put the ball in his hands on offense. You can't let a player this dynamic be limited to three or four touches a game.

28. Oakland Raiders [29] — I swear this is true: Oakland's offense is statistically above average. The team ranks 14th in yardage, 11th in scoring. Last year, the Raiders were 31st in both categories, actually one of the worst offensive teams in history. Only 14 teams have ever scored less than 200 points in a 16-game season: the 1985 Bills, '90 Pats, '91 Colts, Cards, and Bucs, '92 Seahawks, '93 Bengals and Colts, '98 Eagles, 2000 Browns and Bengals, '06 Raiders, '09 Rams and Raiders. Five games removed from being one of the worst offenses in modern history, they're actually above average so far. It's amazing what not playing JaMarcus Russell will do for you. Imagine if the Raiders had drafted Calvin Johnson or Joe Thomas instead.

29. San Francisco 49ers [24] — No 0-5 team has ever made the playoffs. On the NBC pregame show, Rodney Harrison sneakily compared Alex Smith to Ryan Leaf, his teammate on the Chargers from 1998-2000. Harrison didn't mention Leaf by name, but he obviously wasn't talking about Stan Humphries or Doug Flutie. Smith hasn't been that kind of disaster — coaches still use Leaf's name to scare young players — but he's closer to Leaf than to Peyton Manning. It's not at all obvious that Smith is better than Shaun Hill, whom the Niners traded to Detroit for a seventh-round draft pick. Smith simply isn't consistent except out of the shotgun. The team needs to either adapt its offense to Smith's style of play, or find a new quarterback. It won't be successful with Alex Smith taking snaps under center.

30. St. Louis Rams [26] — Sam Bradford, the legend, the greatest quarterback in the game today, probably the greatest in history, threw two interceptions and averaged under 5 yards per attempt against the laughable Detroit defense. What is with the recent trend of declaring young QBs stars, even speculating on their eventual place in history, after a good game? Even JaMarcus Russell had a couple of good games. Bradford might become a great quarterback, but it's just as likely that he'll be the next Alex Smith. Right now, only Smith has more interceptions than Bradford, who ranks 31st in passer rating (66.5).

31. Carolina Panthers [31] — As a defensive player, it must be really dispiriting to be part of a unit that holds the opponent to 13 first downs and 247 yards, intercepts four passes, and still loses. Maybe during the bye week they can talk Kurt Warner, Kevin Mawae, and Marvin Harrison out of retirement. Charles Godfrey leads the NFL in interceptions (4).

32. Buffalo Bills [32] — The pass defense, terrific a year ago, is awful this season. In 2009, Buffalo boasted the second-ranked pass defense in the NFL and allowed opponents just a 61.1 passer rating. Now, they're still a respectable 11th in yards, but only because their pathetic offense and last-ranked run defense are so bad that opponents don't bother to throw against them. Buffalo's opponents have posted a collective passer rating of 114.8, nearly double last year's and easily the worst in the league.

Check out the BetFirms NFL odds this week to see who is favored over who and then cash-in over the lines by signing up for their NFL picks.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 9:43 PM | Comments (2)

NBA East Will Be Battle of Big Threes

NBA general managers got a bit ahead of themselves last week when they penciled in the Los Angeles Lakers for a three-peat, but they did nail half the NBA Finals matchup in the process. The Lakers should clinch the Western Conference title as soon as they step onto the court in their season opener against the Houston Rockets on October 26, so weak is their competition. The real question is, who will be their opponent?

While the West is its usual one-horse race, the East is anything but. One perennial contender may have fallen by the wayside when LeBron James moved from Cleveland to Miami, but five other teams have more than a delusional chance of coming out of the East.

The Atlanta Hawks are the biggest stretch. They won 53 games last season, but their resources have been invested in re-signing Joe Johnson and replacing head coaches. It's hard to see them improving over the team that was swept by Orlando last year.

Chicago replaced coaches too, but in Tom Thibodeau, they have acquired one of the best defensive minds in the NBA today. The addition of Carlos Boozer to an energetic young roster will make the Bulls a team you won't want to face on certain nights, but in the past two seasons combined, they've only gained 12 games of playoff experience. It's not difficult seeing them climb another rung this year, but these Bulls aren't ready for the heights of the Eastern Finals, much less the Lakers.

Orlando has a cadre of quality starters, but their offense goes into a funk each spring. Last May the egregiousness of letting Celtic-killing Hedo Turkoglu walk came to roost as Boston rolled the Magic in the Eastern semis. Vince Carter wilted in the spotlight, Jameer Nelson lost the point guard matchup against Rajon Rondo, and Dwight Howard often found himself on an island. Yet Orlando's front office recommitted to this lineup, with Quentin Richardson their only prime-time addition. Much like the other Eastern contenders, they'll only go as far as the Miami Heat or Boston Celtics let them.

Yes, the 2010-11 East will be settled by the Heat and Celtics. A Battle of Big Three's. The new guard against the old. No two teams improved themselves more this summer. No two teams found better complements to their weaknesses.

Take Miami. The Heat failed to advance past the first round last April because they lacked any legitimate scoring threat beyond Dwyane Wade. In addition to re-signing him — not a foregone conclusion when he spent the opening days of free agency either arriving at or departing from Chicago's O'Hare Airport — owner Micky Arison and GM Pat Riley also acquired LeBron James and Chris Bosh in deals that morphed into sign-and-trades, allowing each to be extended an extra year. All three deals were consummated on July 9, a date that may have changed the face of the Eastern Conference for years to come.

Overnight, Miami became the early frontrunners, notwithstanding the consensus of league GMs. In James, Bosh, and Wade, the NBA's newest Big Three are 25-, 26-, and 28-years old, respectively. Considering one of them is arguably the best player in the game today, and that all three are being added to a playoff-ready roster, it's small wonder why Vegas loves the Heat.

Even with a limited supporting cast in Cleveland, LeBron carried the Cavaliers into at least the second round in each of his last five seasons, including one trip to the NBA Finals. Imagine what he can do with the likes of superstars Wade and Bosh, along with capable point guards in Mario Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo; returning forwards Udonis Haslem and James Jones; and fourth-year center Joel Anthony.

Accommodating LeBron and Bosh has meant having to part ways with three starters from last season — Quentin Richardson, Michael Beasley, and Jermaine O'Neal. But the acquisition of key role players in shooting guard Eddie House, swingman Mike Miller, power forward Juwan Howard, and center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who played alongside LeBron for each of the latter's seven years in Cleveland, will provide depth and versatility. Competition for final roster spots figures to be stiff among the new rookie class, making South Beach giddy with talk of a 72-win season.

Of course, last year at this time, Boston was giddy with similar talk, particularly from the newly-acquired and bust-to-be Rasheed Wallace. But the Celtics did little else to improve a drained and injury-plagued roster after a disappointing 2008-09 finish. The Aged Three — Ray Allen is now 35, Kevin Garnett 34, and Paul Pierce going on 33 — slept-walked through much of last season, going 27-27 in the final 54 games, 3-7 in the final 10. Then a funny thing happened on the way to an early spring exit. They found renewed life.

The Green took five games to dispense with Wade's Heat, which had been the league's hottest team heading into the postseason. They handily beat LeBron's Cavaliers and their league-best 61-21 record, and built a 3-0 lead over Orlando before winning in six. But against the Lakers, they lacked the length to close out their 18th title. Over the seven-game Finals the Celtics were out-rebounded, 297-265, including a 92-71 deficit on the offensive boards. The Lakers grabbed 23 offensive rebounds for 17 second-chance points in Game 7. Boston had 43 shots blocked in the series.

So this summer, the C's got longer.

In July, GM Danny Ainge signed 6-foot-11 Jermaine O'Neal, and in August, 7-foot-1 Shaquille O'Neal. But one of the biggest surprises this preseason is the play of 6-foot-11 Semih Erden, a second-round draft pick in 2008 who has been playing in his native Turkey the past two seasons. Erden appeared destined to be the departing Brian Scalabrine's replacement as fan darling, but 19 points and 14 rebounds in 69 preseason minutes now make him a legitimate candidate for meaningful minutes this winter.

And there should be plenty of opportunities with 6-foot-10 Kendrick Perkins not due back in the lineup until at least January as he rehabs from a torn ACL. Rounding out the front court are Garnett and the 6-foot-9 Glen "Big Baby" Davis, who is comfortable in both small and power forward positions.

The C's got longer up front, but they got even longer in the tooth. Coach Doc Rivers' master plan to give his second unit some quality closing time this preseason will get Marquis Daniels and Delonte West battle-ready to spell Pierce and Allen, and the youthful Rondo has capable point relief in Nate Robinson. As with the Heat, a mix of intriguing free agents will compete with draftees for the remaining spots, with not a lot of time available.

The extent to which Rivers can build a deep enough roster to fill the gaps that develop from injuries and rest requirements will determine his team's chances for a rematch against the Lakers. However, Miami just doesn't have those questions. Right now, the Heat look like the best bet to prove general managers across the NBA wrong come June.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 7:55 PM | Comments (1)

October 11, 2010

Time to Stop Sucking Up to Burnett

If it were ever more evident that A.J. Burnett's big, long-term contract was dictating the decisions made by the Yankees' front office, it is right now.

After the Yankees cruised through the American League Division series with just three starters, the Yankees announced Monday morning that they will use a fourth starter in the American League Championship Series. That fourth starter will be A.J. Burnett.

Yankees fans have never been fed up with a pitcher more than they have Burnett. And for a good reason. This season has been a disastrous one for the 33-year-old, and that is just one of the many reasons why this decision makes no sense.

First off, if the Yankees feel they need a fourth starter, why didn't they initially have one in the Divisional Series? Furthermore, there was no evidence in the ALDS that a fourth starter was needed. After all, they never lost a game.

The Yankees have almost a week off between the last game of the ALDS and the first game of the ALCS. That rest will make it even easier for all the starters to get back into shape, especially CC Sabathia, who would potentially pitch three games.

If you insert Burnett into the fourth spot in the rotation, CC Sabathia would pitch Game 5, eliminating the possibility of him pitching a possible Game 7. If you can't throw your ace in Game 7, you have something to worry about.

Then there is the simplest argument of them all: Burnett is not the best the Yankees have. Even if they can prove a fourth starter is necessary, Burnett is not their best option.

With a 5.26 ERA on the season, and a 7.94 ERA in his final three regular season starts, Burnett should be out of contention for a starting spot. The Yankees mistakingly left Ivan Nova and Javier Vazquez off the roster, but they still left Dustin Moseley.

Now of course you would not be comfortable putting Moseley on the mound in the ALCS. He, too, has an ERA of almost 5 and he has never started a postseason game. However, as bad a case you could make for Moseley, it wouldn't be very hard to make a worse case for Burnett. Bottom line: neither Burnett or Moseley is fit for a postseason start, but if you really feel you need a fourth starter, Moseley would give you a better chance to win.

Although they likely don't believe it, you will surely hear the Yankees sing the same song they have sang all year: "Burnett has great stuff, and he has potential to pitch a great game."

Sure, he has potential to pitch a great game. But so does Kerry Wood, so does Mariano Rivera, so does Joba Chamberlain, and so does Kei Igawa. It's the postseason. You need starters who give you a chance to win nearly 100% of the time. Burnett is not that guy, regardless of what he can do.

The Yankees made this decision without any regard to winning. They instead made this decision because they are afraid to hurt Burnett's feelings. He will be here for another three years and the Yankees don't want to upset someone who will likely be essential to their future success.

In Yankees history, only one pitcher has finished the season with at least 30 starts and an ERA above 5. That pitcher is A.J. Burnett. The Yankees have treated him better than ever, regardless of his horrible numbers. They have made sure he is happy and comfortable without any regard to the teams success. That's fine in April, that's even fine in August. But in October, it should not be tolerated.

Posted by Jess Coleman at 11:36 PM | Comments (0)

Halfway to the Heisman Trophy

Most college football teams have played six out of their 12 regular season games and are playing their conference schedules, which means the Heisman Trophy race will start to take shape. Up until this weekend, the Heisman Trophy race has been largely a one-man competition with Michigan's Denard Robinson the clear favorite.

But after Robinson's performance at rival Michigan State, he moves from the favorite to perhaps one of the invited. Robinson faced a solid defense in a big rivalry game on a national stage and came up short. How he bounces back this week will go a long way in determining his Heisman fate. Iowa's defense has the potential to put a second dent in his Heisman armor. Games against Wisconsin and Ohio State could win him the hardware or sink his chances, as well. Robinson no longer faces Bowling Green or UMass on Saturday afternoons.

When BCS schools move into their conference schedules, Heisman contenders come to the forefront and those who had huge numbers against Little Sisters of the Poor start to fade away.

The 2010 season started with a group of Heisman hopefuls who have mostly faltered, including Washington's Jake Locker and Arkansas' Ryan Mallet. Miami's Jacory Harris, Florida State's Christian Ponder, and USC's Matt Barkley all dropping off the radar.

The Heisman race will also heat up because the BCS championship game no longer looks like Alabama/SEC vs. somebody. As other teams begin their BCS championship run, Heisman candidates will begin to emerge from all around the country.

The second half of the season is a time when teams start to play their conference schedule and the national spotlight burns bright on the BCS schools. The 2009 Heisman race saw Mark Ingram emerge during the second half of the season. Toby Gerhart finished second, and Ndamukong Suh was fourth and none of them were mentioned as part of the preseason Heisman hype.

A look at this year's Heisman candidates at the halfway point reveal BCS conferences dominating the discussion.

Boise State's Kellen Moore was part of the 2010 preseason Heisman hype and is still within striking distance of the trophy, however. He has one big game against Nevada to prove to voters he is worthy of Heisman votes.

Moore was a preseason favorite and continues to garner attention, but with a weak schedule until the Nevada game, it will be very difficult for him to stay in the headlines. He will need to keep putting up huge numbers, rout Nevada, and keep his team in the top five in the BCS standings. It is possible he will receive an invitation to New York if Boise State continues to rise in the rankings.

It will be difficult, however, for a player like Kellen Moore to mount a campaign, as it was tough for Case Keenum last year. Although Moore's numbers may be impressive, it will be almost impossible for him to overcome the players in BCS schools who appear in the "Games of the Week," "Games of the Season," or the seemingly weekly "Game of the Century."

Voters quickly become seduced by the players who appear in the games between ranked teams or the players who have a big game on national television.

The Big 12 has given us Taylor Martinez of Nebraska, Landry Jones of Oklahoma, and Daniel Thomas of Kansas State. As Nebraska makes its way to the Big 12 championship game, Martinez will begin to be featured and mentioned as poised and ready to lead Nebraska to the promised land. Rushing for 241 yards on national television against Kansas State certainly doesn't hurt his chances, either. He has the ability to take over a game and Nebraska's defense will provide Martinez with plenty of opportunities to handle the ball. The black shirt defense is back and the offense is starting to benefit.

Oklahoma's Jones might emerge as the Sooners appear to be on course to meet Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. He is the best player on one of the best teams and although he will not put up the numbers to warrant an invitation to New York, he will have his team in the national championship and sometimes that's all a player needs to be mentioned in the Heisman race.

Kansas State's Daniel Thomas had his candidacy take a hit against Nebraska, but he has the potential to put up big numbers in a BCS conference.

The Pac-10 is stealing the spotlight from other conferences as a power conference and their games will start to garner more national attention. Oregon and Stanford are both fielding Heisman candidates in 2010.

Oregon's LaMichael James has been electric this season. If he stays healthy, Oregon remains in contention, and the Pac-10 keeps its games and teams in the national spotlight, it will be difficult to keep James out of New York. James has at times faltered in games, and been shut down for long stretches of time during games. James, however, then has an 80-yard play and puts himself back in the race. By the end of every game, it is tough to deny him Heisman attention. Oregon's ability to put up 50 points against anyone will give him plenty of opportunity to be invited to New York.

The Pac-10 also features Stanford's steady Andrew Luck. Andrew Luck took his loss against Oregon in stride and followed it up with a win against USC. He doesn't have to overcome big mistakes like Ryan Mallet's interceptions against Alabama, which should help Luck the rest of the way. He emerged from the Oregon loss a candidate and won the following week, staying a Heisman candidate.

The SEC features Auburn's Cam Newton as a Heisman candidate. Newton has Auburn 6-0 and the Tigers are emerging as an SEC favorite. He and Alabama's Mark Ingram will have a showdown in the Iron Bowl that could determine each player's Heisman fate. Although Ingram hasn't played an entire season, it will be difficult to keep him out of Heisman talk the entire year.

Meanwhile, if Steve Spurrier could resist pulling Stephen Garcia out of games for the rest of the season, South Carolina could have a player in the Heisman race.

The Big Ten features one other Heisman candidate besides Denard Robinson and that's Terrelle Pryor. He has been lost in the conversation, but is emerging. He is now leading the number one team and will be featured weekly with contests against Wisconsin and Iowa still to be played. His numbers will eventually get larger put him in the conversation, but leading Ohio State to a BCS championship berth will solidify an invitation to New York.

Players that are lurking in the Heisman race and may make some noise later in the season include Ryan Mallett, Wisconsin's John Clay, and eventually someone from TCU. TCU is ranked too high not to have Andy Dalton begin to be mentioned in the Heisman talk.

Of course, someone on the defensive side of the football will become an instant candidate by early November, as well. Defenses that could have a star emerge include Nebraska, TCU, Boise State, Ohio State, Iowa, and LSU

The three players who look most like they will be invited if they continue to perform at a high level, stay healthy, and their teams keep winning are Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, and Terrelle Pryor. Kellen Moore will be waiting to take someone's place. If Oregon or Ohio State falter and Boise State finds itself in the BCS championship mix before the votes are tallied, Moore might find himself needing a plane ticket to New York.

If you want to beat the college football odds for the rest of the season, then get signed up for the football picks at BetFirms.com.

Posted by Vito Curcuru at 11:14 PM | Comments (0)

Ray of Hope?

The Tampa Bay Rays won 6-3 in a do-or-die Game 3 at Arlington tonight on the strength of late-inning homers from Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena, despite a last-gasp from the Texas offense in the bottom of the ninth.

The game, of course, was not without its controversy, which will likely draw far more attention and support for those who are pushing for expanded instant replay in baseball, in both regular season and postseason games.

In the bottom of the sixth, umpire Jeff Kellogg called SS Elvis Andrus safe on a steal attempt at second, though Andrus clearly never touched the bag. A well-positioned Jason Bartlett was able to block Andrus from the bag and make the tag before he ever touched second (as shown on replay). Also, Carl Crawford had back-to-back strike calls on pitches which appeared to be at least half a foot off the outside corner to go down looking, and made no secret of his dissatisfaction, though to no avail. Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon, to his credit, managed to keep a cool head in both of these instances.

Questionable calls aside, Game 3 was a very low-scoring affair until the late innings. 2B Ian Kinsler led off the bottom of the seventh with a shot into the LF stands, giving the Rangers a 2-1 lead and running Tampa starter RHP Matt Garza out of the game. The Rays countered in the top of the eighth when DH Dan Johnson crushed an inside fastball from Oliver off the right field wall for a 1-out double, where he was replaced by the lightning-fast rookie Desmond Jennings, who then scored when Nelson Cruz bobbled a single by Carlos Pena to tie the game at 2-2.

Submariner Darren O'Day struck out CF B.J. Upton on a tough outside breaking pitch, then was promptly replaced by the Rangers' closer and fireballer Neftali Feliz. This left Texas manager Ron Washington with only one arm in the 'pen (Dustin Nippert). The pressure soon got to the young closer as he promptly walked Bartlett, after which C John Jaso worked a difficult at-bat to score Pena from second on a shallow single to center, Josh Hamilton's throw being well up the 1B line. Jaso advanced to second on the throw home, but was stranded when Zobrist popped up to end the inning.

The damage was done as the Rays took the lead, 3-2, and Crawford added insurance when he homered to deep right-center against Feliz in the top of the ninth, forcing Texas to bring Nippert into the game. 2B Sean Rodriguez singled to left and was scored on another Rays homer, this time off the bat of Carlos Pena. Nelson Cruz was able to put a one-spot on the board for the home team when he hit a solo shot off Tampa closer Rafael Soriano, but the short-lived rally died quickly as the Rays held on to win.

Posted by Clinton Riddle at 6:30 PM | Comments (0)

October 7, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 5

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Jacksonville @ Buffalo (-1)

As unpredictable teams go, the Jaguars may be the league's most unpredictable. After two lopsided losses, Jacksonville overcame division rival Indianapolis, lifted by Josh Scobee's dramatic 59-yard field goal as time expired. Now the Jags must avoid a letdown against the winless Bills, who were stomped 38-14 by the Jets last week.

"Scobee made the game-winner," said Jack Del Rio, "but David Garrard played an efficient game, with 2 passing touchdowns and a rushing score. Lately, Garrard's been anything but an efficient quarterback, although he's been close, close enough to be called an 'effin'' quarterback.

As you know, we picked up Trent Edwards off waivers after he was released by the Bills. He'd like nothing more than to beat his old team. What is it about former Bills living in Florida seeking revenge? Let's face it, the chances of a Bills victory are about the same as the chances of O.J. Simpson exacting vengeance on the 'real killers.'"

Bills coach Chan Gailey has committed to Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, the Harvard-educated genius who reportedly scored a 48 on the Wonderlic test.

"And I hear he completed the test in around nine minutes," Gailey said, "which is about the time it took him to memorize my playbook, after I slipped it under his door.

Now, at 0-4, we need a win badly, and we plan to go all out to get one. We've got everything to gain, and nothing to lose, except a lottery pick, which I probably won't be around to see."

The Bills come out hot, and C.J. Spiller returns the opening kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown, and celebrates in the end zone as the public address system blares B.B. King's "The Spill' is Gone."

Buffalo wins, 27-22.

Denver @ Baltimore (-7)

The Ravens head home for only their second home game this year, with a huge 17-14 win at Pittsburgh under their belts. Joe Flacco's 18-yard touchdown strike to T.J. Houshmandzadeh with 32 seconds left won it for the Ravens, who now sit atop the AFC North.

"It's always satisfying beating the Steelers," said John Harbaugh, "and even more satisfying doing it with a Cincinnati Bengals reject. Now, with Josh McDaniels calling the shots in Denver, there are Denver rejects around the league, like in Chicago and Miami. Not to mention those still on the Broncos roster. It will be equally satisfying beating the Broncos with their own rejects."

For the second straight week, the Broncos will face a sturdy defense, this time against a Ravens unit known for its physical style. So far this year, the Broncos have lived and died by the pass, and Kyle Orton leads the NFL is passing yardage.

"There's really no point trying to run on the Ravens," McDaniels said. "We got where we are through the air, on a charter flight, from Denver to Baltimore. And what do you know? The Ravens have the league's top-rated pass defense. This will be a case of the 'Irresistible Force' meeting the 'Immovable Object.' In my experience, the best way to handle that situation is to trade that player known as the 'Immovable Object' or 'Irresistible Force.' I don't like to butt heads. I like buttheads even less."

Are the Ravens due for a letdown after an emotionally-draining win over the Steelers. Yes, but for only about four minutes. Denver takes the opening drive seven yards after a big kickoff return, settling for a long Matt Prater field goal. After that, it's all Ravens.

Baltimore wins, 23-10.

Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-9)

The undefeated Chiefs head to Indianapolis for a showdown with Peyton Manning and the 2-2 Colts. After last week's 31-28 loss to the Jaguars, the Colts are 0-2 in the AFC South, and will look for their second win against an AFC West competition.

"Beating the Chiefs won't be an easy task," said Peyton Manning. "They've got a lot going for them. They're undefeated, they're coming off a bye week, and they're playing with passion. You could say they're a handful. I just hope one of our defensive linemen doesn't become a 'handful.' K.C.'s Shaun Smith has an odd way of preventing 'sacks.'

In all seriousness, though, I never underestimate an opponent, unless said opponent is quarterbacked by my brother Eli. People have said I'm doing more for this offense than I ever have. That's not entirely true. Sure, I'm doing it for my offense, but I'm also doing it for the Manning family legacy, which I'm apparently carrying on single-handedly."

The Chiefs will face the difficult task of stopping Peyton Manning and an Indy offense relying almost exclusively on the passing game. Manning is second in the NFL in passing yardage and leads the league with 11 touchdowns.

"Indeed," said Todd Haley. "Manning is our primary concern, but it's like I told Shaun Smith, 'We have to handle our own business.' That means a solid running game, and high-percentage passes that even a simpleton like Matt Cassel can handle. Cassel's earned the nickname 'Royal Flush,' because he's king of the 'dump down.'"

Are the Chiefs ready for the big time, against the defending AFC champs, in front of a lubed-up, frenzied crowd in Lucas Oil Stadium? There's one way to quiet a raucous Colts crowd, and that's to run the ball down there throats. The Chiefs are capable, but not after Manning stakes the Colts to an early 14-0 lead, thus rendering the K.C. rushing attack useless.

Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis tee off on Cassel, with four sacks, all while protecting their manhood.

Indianapolis wins, 34-20.

Green Bay @ Washington (+3)

Donovan McNabb was triumphant in his return to Philadelphia last week, receiving a standing ovation from the Philly faithful before engineering a big 17-12 win over the Eagles. Now, the 2-2 'Skins host the 3-1 Packers and their fifth-ranked scoring offense.

"The Philly fans surprised me," McNabb said. "Had they booed me in lieu of a standing ovation, I was prepared to deem them 'can't stand' Philly. Honestly, the standing ovation reminded of what I used to say when Freddie Mitchell made a catch — I was surprised by the reception. Now, to beat the Packers, we're going to need a big contribution from Albert Haynesworth. He was solid in the Philly game, with 4 tackles and a pass defended. And Albert's proud of the fact that he didn't immediately cash his $21 million dollar bonus check, as if it would lose value the longer he held it. What I find most impressive about Albert is that after sitting on that check for so long, he was able to find it."

The Packers corrected the penalty issues that plagued them in last Monday night's loss to the Bears, cutting their infractions from 18 to 3 in their win over the Lions.

"If it's not penalties," said Mike McCarthy, "it's turnovers. If it's not turnovers, it's missed assignments. If it's none of those, it's certainly not coaching. I toss accusations around like a true McCarthy — Joseph McCarthy.

But there is no 'Red Scare'; we don't fear the Redskins at all. They are an average team. That makes them all 'Common-ists.'"

Packers win, 27-21.

St. Louis @ Detroit (-3)

After last week's 28-26 loss to Green Bay, the Lions are 0-4, and have fallen to all three NFC North rivals. Three of the four losses have come by 5 points or less, and as favorites for the first time this year, this could be the week the Lions break through.

"0-4 is no reason to panic," Jim Schwartz said. "We've been there before, and before, and other times, as well, so this isn't virgin territory for us. We're clearly the best 0-4 team in the NFL, and CFL for that matter.

We're headed in the right direction. Matthew Stafford is throwing on his injured right shoulder. Once he's healthy, he and Calvin Johnson could become the most feared quarterback-to-wide receiver combination in the league. Let's face it, nobody achieves separation quite like Stafford and Johnson."

The 2-2 Rams are tied for the lead in the NFC West and are riding a two-game winning streak. Rookie quarterback Sam Bradford's play has the Ram faithful thinking playoffs, and possibly division crown, in the NFC West.

"Only in the NFC West," Bradford said, "can you set your sights high and low simultaneously. But anything's possible in this division. I can't tell you what will happen in the West, but I can tell you what won't happen — a wild card team from this division. Inevitably, the story of this division will be called 'How the West Was One.'"

The Lions, and a partisan Ford Field crowd, witness first hand that Bradford, like a Dodge, is 'Ram Tough.' Bradford throws for 2 touchdowns, giving St. Louis an early lead. But Johnson breaks free for a long touchdown score from Shaun Hill late in the fourth quarter.

Detroit wins, 30-23.

Chicago @ Carolina (+3)

Julius Peppers returns to his old stomping grounds in Charlotte, where he was one of the most feared defensive ends in the game, at least when he wanted to be. Now Peppers, like Jay Cutler, is wreaking havoc for the Bears, and plans to do the same against Carolina's rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen.

"After 9 sacks on Jay Cutler last week," Peppers said, "this is probably the only time I can honestly say 'I wish I was still a Panther.'"

But Cutler had a half he'd like to forget, and luckily, he probably will, if the effects of his concussion have any compassion. Cutler just needs to relax and get back to the basics of quarterbacking. And I think the most basic basis of quarterbacking is throwing the ball. If officials could flag a quarterback for holding, Cutler would have seen more flags than the United Nations. "

The 0-4 Panthers nearly upset the Saints in New Orleans last week, but fell on a late field goal. Now, Carolina occupies last place in the NFC South, behind the Falcons, Saints, and Bucs with one loss apiece.

"We're at the bottom all by ourselves right now," John Fox said. "It's just like two Carolina Panther cheerleaders said when they found a quiet toilet stall for a romantic rendezvous, 'Alone at last.' Never has porcelain been so sexy."

Now, you've probably heard that Dwayne Jarrett has been released and Steve Smith is out with an injury. Jarrett was arrested for the second time for driving while impaired. Apparently, he refused the Breathalyzer, but we found him guilty of 'blowing' nonetheless.

It all leaves us thin at wide receiver. Honestly, I couldn't tell you who our top wide receiver will be for Sunday's game. Maybe someone will surprise us, by popping out of a car trunk."

Peppers displays the unbelievable athleticism he's known for, and sacks Jimmy Clausen 3 times. He also collects an interception, as well, and Panthers fan witness something they haven't seen from Peppers in years: effort.

Chicago wins, 19-9.

Tampa Bay @ Cincinnati (-7)

So much for the Bengals sweeping AFC North games this year. Cincinnati lost at Cleveland 23-20, despite 371 yards passing from Carson Palmer and 222 receiving yards from Terrell Owens. Cincy will look to get back in the win column against the 2-1 Buccaneers, coming off a bye week.

"Ahoy mateys," said Owens. "They may be 2-1 and only one game out of the NFC South lead, but if I had to give them a grade, I'd go no better than a 'high sea' for the Buccaneers.

As for me, I'd give me an 'A.' As for Chad Ochocinco, I'd rate his play a 'B,' but I'd give his cereal, 'Ochocinco's,' an 'R,' as in 'rated R.' What kind of cereal leaves a phone number to a sex hot line on the box? I'll tell you what kind. One in which most of the boxes are still on the shelf, because they were made 'in bad taste.'"

The Bucs will have to be at their best to beat the Bengals, who will be still stinging from last week's lost to the Browns.

"If we can keep Carson Palmer, Owens, and Ochocinco in check," said Ronde Barber, "we can win. Palmer won't throw for 371 yards against us. Palmer's much like Robert Palmer — he's surrounded by divas."

Cincinnati wins a back-and-forth struggle, winning on a Mike Nugent 48-yard field goal.

Bengals win, 22-20.

Atlanta @ Cleveland (+3)

The Browns won for the first time, taking a 23-20 win over AFC North rival Cincinnati last week behind 102 yards and a touchdown from running back Peyton Hillis. Hillis is certain to provide a play-action threat when Jake Delhomme returns from an ankle injury suffered in week 1.

"Delhomme's anxious to get back out there," said Eric Mangini, "and dispel the rumors that his new nickname is 'Jake the Ache.' 'Playing through pain' is what it's called when Delhomme's your quarterback. But I shouldn't be so critical of Delhomme. We spent $7 million dollars on this guy, for Christ's sake. Seriously, Delhomme will bring a new dimension to this offense. We've already installed some new formations just for him we never thought we'd use in a million years. It's called 'Peyton Hillis in the wildcat.'"

The Falcons squeaked by the 49ers 16-14, a win that seemed in doubt with the Falcons down 14-13 and San Fran's Nate Clements streaking down the sideline with an interception. But Roddy White saved the day, stripping Clements, whose fumble was recovered by Atlanta and turned into Matt Bryant's game-winning field goal.

"I'd rather be lucky than good," said Mike Smith. "And that's good, because we are lucky, for goodness sake. We may be the most overrated 3-1 team in the league. If not for a shanked 29-yard field goal and a flukey fumble, we'd be 1-3, and my hair would no longer be white, it would be gone."

The Falcons remain lucky — Delhomme starts. For the most part, they're good. Matt Ryan throws TD passes to Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White, and Delhomme tosses 2 interceptions.

Atlanta wins, 24-17.

NY Giants @ Houston (-3)

The Giants got back in the win column with a 17-3 dismantling of the Bears, sacking Jay Cutler 10 times in the first half alone. Now, at 2-2, the Giants are tied for first in the NFC East, and face a Texans team looking for another shot at an NFC East team after losing to Dallas in Week 3.

"I'm far from being considered nimble afoot," said Matt Schaub, "but I've never suffered 10 sacks in one game, much less one half. Here in Texas, we've got a name for that — it's called 'David Carr-nage.'

But we've got something the Bears don't, and that's a running game, featuring Arian Foster, the NFL's leading rusher. And on defense, we have something the Bears don't, and that's a linebacker who blamed a positive drug test on overtraining. On second thought, we do have something the Giants have — a 'train' wreck."

Despite their respectable record, the Giants are a team bordering on collapse, with a shaky offense and a number of disgruntled players, plus one perpetually disgruntled coach. And, with running back Ahmad Bradshaw nursing a sore ankle, the G-Men may have to lean more heavily on Eli Manning to conquer the Texans.

"Unfortunately," said Tom Coughlin, "Eli is no Peyton Manning. In fact, I'm not even sure he's Archie's kid. Eli's great one minute, and terrible the next. We should call him 'Half-Man-ning, Half-Amazing.'"

Houston wins, 26-24.

New Orleans @ Arizona (+6½)

In a rematch of last year's divisional round playoff game, Arizona welcomes the defending Super Bowl champion Saints to Glendale, home of the 2-2 Cardinals. Despite their .500 record, the Cardinals are struggling defensively and offensively, and just suffered a 41-10 beating at the hands of the Chargers. In that game, Arizona kicked a field goal, down 41-7, with just over three minutes left in the game.

"With a field goal or touchdown in that situation," Ken Whisenhunt said, "it would still be a four-score game. That's called playing the averages. What else do I call 'playing the averages?' Well, choosing a quarterback, because no matter whom I select, he's no better than average.

Kurt Warner may be out of football, but I've found enough religion to make up for his absence, because I take a heavenly leap of faith each time I name a starter at quarterback.

Of course, it's hard to keep our receivers happy with subpar quarterbacking. In fact, our 'game-changing' wide receiver has become a 'name-changing' wide receiver. That's right, Larry Fitzgerald has legally changed his name to Larry Fitzbetter (With Another Team)."

The Saints win the coin toss, and elect to receive, although Neil Racker's kick is delayed when Sean Payton expends a time out right before kickoff. Rackers then boots the kickoff clear through the uprights, and the Saints march 80 yards for a touchdown, and don't look back.

New Orleans wins, 34-23.

Tennessee @ Dallas (-6½)

After Week 3's win at Houston, the Cowboys enjoyed a bye week to savor the occasion, a win over a favored team high on itself. Ironically, that's what the Titans will try to do, by crashing Cowboys Stadium and pinning a loss on the confident Cowboys.

"Lest we forget," said Jeff Fisher, "Dallas has won but a single game. And they celebrated with a $55,000 dinner courtesy of Dez Bryant. That's a lot of food, which I'm sure makes them full, of themselves. Should they still be hungry, they can eat dust, courtesy of Chris Johnson.

We're expecting big things from Johnson, otherwise we might ask for a new contract. A 600-yard day should put him back on pace for a 2,500 yard year. To this point, he's only been mediocre. Until he shows us otherwise, instead of 'CJ2K,' we'll be calling him 'CJOK.'"

The Titans self-destructed last week against the Broncos in Tennessee, committing 10 penalties that contributed to Denver's comeback win. So frustrated was Titans defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil with one particular call, he flipped off the referee, incurring a $40,000 fine levied by the NFL on Tuesday.

"If it's not Cecil flipping the bird," said Jerry Jones, "it's owner Bud Adams flashing his middle finger. I hate to quote rap lyrics, especially those that have never been rapped, but those turkeys have 'mad digits.'"

Dallas wins, 28-24.

San Diego @ Oakland (+5½)

The red-hot Chargers, winners of three in a row, head to Oakland's Black Hole for the 2010 renewal of one of the AFC West's most heated rivalries. Make no mistake — each team wants to pummel the other, physically and emotionally. The 1-3 Raiders desperately need a division win to keep pace in the West.

"We expect Raider Nation to be on their worst behavior," said Darren McFadden. "The Chargers aren't used to a home crowd quick like ours. See, in San Diego, the home crowd is characterized as 'sun-drenched with iPads.' Here in the Black Hole, it's 'blood-drenched with eye patches.' Sometimes, the fans wear the black and silver better than we do."

The Chargers lead the NFL in total offense, and are second in total defense, yet have only a 2-2 record to show for it.

"Apparently," said Norv Turner, "we can't be stopped, except on the scoreboard, or by the Jets in the playoffs, or by A.J. Smith at the negotiation table. He wouldn't give up Vincent Jackson for a second and a third-round pick, yet the Vikings get Randy Moss for just a third-round pick. It seems that A.J. ended up doing the Vikes a favor anyway."

San Diego wins, 27-20.

Philadelphia @ San Francisco (-3)

The 49ers lost another heartbreaker, falling 16-14 in Atlanta after racing to an early 14-0 lead. San Fran seemed to have the victory sealed when Nate Clements picked off Matt Ryan with less than two minutes remaining, but Roddy White stripped Clements, and the Falcons recovered.

"And the rest," Mike Singletary said, "is history. It's just another example of the White man keeping a brother down. And speaking of 'history,' there may be more heads rolling before this season is over. Before it's over, they may be calling this city 'Can Francisco.' My change at offensive coordinator looked like it worked, for one possession."

In last week's 17-12 home loss to the Redskins, the Eagles felt not only the sting of defeat, but saw two of their offensive stars go down with injuries. Michael Vick has a rib cartilage injury, and LeSean McCoy broke a rib in the game. Vick will likely miss the San Francisco game.

"I don't want to speak to soon," said Andy Reid, "and name Kevin Kolb the starter. Lord knows, I've been guilty of 'premature infatuation' before. But Kevin will start, and Vick will spend his time rehabbing, and learning the quarterback slide."

Can the 49ers fall to 0-5? It's possible, and if it happens, the biggest fault line in San Francisco will lead directly to Singletary. But the 49ers play inspired, and smart, and do way with the mistakes that cost them in their last two inspired performances.

Frank Gore rushes for two scores, and Clements picks off Kolb late, then takes a knee.

San Francisco wins, 23-16.

Minnesota @ NY Jets (-5½)

The 1-2 Vikings have had a solid two weeks to rest and regroup in advance of Monday night's showdown with the Jets. Minnesota is only one game out of the loss column in the NFC North, and with upcoming games against the Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots, a win in the New Meadowlands is crucial.

"The bye week was very important for me, especially," Favre said. "It gave me a chance to work on the chemistry between myself and my receiving corps. As Vikings, we're well aware that the best way to do that is to charter a boat on Lake Minnetonka. It worked like a charm. Let me tell ya, there was a whole lot of male bonding, to females.

But nothing pleases a quarterback like the arrival of a new receiver eager to prove his many doubters wrong. Randy Moss is back in Minnesota, and the 'Randy Ratio' is back, as well. What's that ratio? It's 3-to01. In other words, it took three Vikings to drag me out of retirement, when it would have taken only one Moss to do the trick.

To say I'm excited about Randy's arrival is an understatement. I may 'lay down' for Michael Strahan, but I'll 'stand up' for Randy Moss."

After being held to 10 points in week 1, the Jets have averaged over 32 points in their last three games. Last week, in a 38-14 drubbing of the Bills, LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 133 yards and 2 touchdowns.

"As soon as the plight of Lawrence Taylor fades from memory," said Rex Ryan, who's contemplating a deal to become spokesman for Orbit chewing gum, "we can start calling LaDainian 'L.T.' For the sake of a respectable nickname, let's just hope LaDainian doesn't 'run away' with the NFL rushing title.

Now Darrelle Revis will get another shot at Moss. But he won't be the only team facing a new receiver. Santonio Holmes is back for us after serving his four games for violating the league's substance abuse policy. You could say Santonio 'cleared the system.'"

Vikings win, 20-17.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:52 PM | Comments (1)

The Do's and Don'ts of Rushing the Field

A funny thing happened at the Georgia/Colorado game Saturday.

Late in the game, Colorado was clinging to a 29-27 lead, but Georgia drove deep in Colorado territory and appeared poised to at least attempt a game-winning field goal.

But Georgia's Caleb King fumbled, Colorado recovered, and then were able to run out the clock. Game over.

And then ... Colorado students charged the field in a frenzy.

Oy vey. Clearly, some quality control is needed in the art of charging the field, of rushing the court. Some rules need to be laid down. Grab a seat, Colorado students and readers at home. Take notes, because you're doing it wrong.

Okay, kids. I know charging the field is fun, and that's the main reason you do it. But discipline and good judgment are lamentably necessary here!

What does it mean when you charge the field? At its most basic, molecular level, it means, "Oh my! This victory is so important and/or unexpected that I cannot contain my joy in having achieved it!! I must frolic in the magnitude of such a victory!"

Colorado fans, this isn't even a conference game, let alone the Big 12 championship, so this does not qualify as a field-charging, important victory.

So was it an unlikely victory? Well, Colorado students, I'm gonna let you in on a little secret. I know Georgia has a lot of rich history and name recognition. But they kind of suck now. Did you know that they were only 1-3 coming into this game? Did you know they were mere 4.5-point favorites for this game? Question in the back row ... yes, I know that you can't score half points in football. See me after class, I'll explain.

So when you frolic in the magnitude, you're actually paying a fantastic compliment to that opponent. You're saying, "You're such a tremendous adversary that defeating you is just cause to rape, plunder, pillage, and burn our own couches. Huzzah!" If only most of us could experience such a comforting consolation to defeat — that the victors consider vanquishing us a crowning experience of their lives.

But Colorado fans, I beseech you to sets your sights higher! I know the last few years have been rough, but you were division champs just five years ago! Conference champs just nine years ago! National champions 20 years ago! This victory is, simply put, not up to field-storming snuff.

But maybe it's not your fault. If no one ever taught you when to rush the field, how can you be expected to know better? Allow me to lay down some ground rules:

1. You may charge the field or rush the court if you have won a conference or national championship. No division championships, no four-team early-season tournament championships in basketball. The only thing that counts is winning your conference or winning it all.

2. You may charge the field or rush the court if you were underdogs by 30 or more. Thankfully, the demarcation line is the same in football and basketball.

3. You may charge the field or rush the court if you beat your biggest (and only your biggest) rival and were underdogs by 15 or more. Beating your rival is big, so the requirements for charging the field/storming the floor are halved.

4. If you won the game in unlikely or spectacular fashion, you may not charge the field or rush the court if none of the three conditions above are satisfied.. I know this one is controversial. But I think back to a game I saw as a kid: North Carolina vs. Iona in basketball. Iona was tough and UNC only won by hitting a buzzer-beater. The students didn't rush the floor, but the UNC players started jumping up and down and celebrating like mad. And I thought, "Well, if you're Iona, you can take solace in the fact that UNC is going nuts because they beat you."

The same principle applies to this rule. UNC's reactions should have been embarrassed relief, not jubilation. At the end of the day, you want to look like you at least suspected you were going to win all long.

5. (Special to administrators — football only): If one of the first three conditions are met, let your students tear out the goalposts and carry them out of the stadium. None of those awful automatically lowering-goal posts. No greasing the uprights so students can't get a grip. This is tradition here. Factor the destruction of one or two sets of goal posts into the annual athletic budget.

Any more questions? You, in the back. I told you I would explain that after class. Fine. The rest of you, I will see you again when you are 30-point underdogs.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:48 PM | Comments (3)

October 6, 2010

Get Even? No, Just Get Mad

It was the head-scratcher of the year. It left me speechless, and that's extremely hard to do. But that's just Les Miles for you. The LSU coach did it again on Saturday. With the Tigers down to Tennessee, 14-10, with just under 30 seconds left in the game, the bizarre occurred. If you follow college football, you know by now about Miles' absurdly bad clock management skills, the 13th Volunteer, and as confusing and lucky a win as the Tiger program has ever had.

This is what you get with the coach nicknamed the "Mad Hatter." It's the same man who failed to get his team together for a spike of the ball at Ole Miss last year, which led to a missed opportunity for a chip shot field goal attempt to win that game. But it's also the same man whose team converted 13-of-16 fourth down plays when they rode his emotion and gut to the national title back in 2007.

These Jekyll and Hyde personas have also infiltrated some of the nation's most recognized teams. Coming into the halfway point of the regular season, many teams with high expectations have been "Maddening" to their fan bases. On the flip side, several programs have seen an uptick, showing signs of "Mad Genius." So, in each of the power conferences, who's tiptoeing through the Mad Scale?

ACC

Maddening: Virginia Tech

The loss to Boise State was possible, if not expected by some. But then Frank Beamer's squad went home to lick their wounds and opened up the gashes even more. A 21-16 loss to James Madison made everyone's eyes bug out. So what do they do to regroup? Crush East Carolina, shut out Boston College in Chestnut Hill, and run away from NC State in Raleigh. The Hokies seem to have steadied themselves, but the first two results couldn't have left Blacksburg residents staring at the brightest of futures.

Mad Genius: NC State

This might be seen as a reversal of reality after this weekend's contest between the Wolfpack and the Hokies, but Tom O'Brien seems to finally have a foothold in the Research Triangle. QB Russell Wilson had led State to their first AP ranking since 2003. However, even with the loss, O'Brien has this squad well on their way to a second bowl appearance in three years (and a better one than the PapaJohns.com Bowl). The two toughest hurdles figure to be BC and Florida State, both at home.

Big East

Maddening: Everybody except Louisville and South Florida

To be fair, Pittsburgh (at Utah, vs. Miami), West Virginia (at LSU), Connecticut (at Michigan), and Cincinnati (vs. Oklahoma) have dropped some tough games. But aren't these the games you're supposed to win if you want to establish some respect as a conference? Add those losses to ones against Fresno State and Temple, plus Syracuse getting housed by Washington, and you have a recipe for disaster — or even worse — mediocrity.

Mad Genius: Louisville

A 2-2 team? Really? When you've got a first-year head coach (Charlie Strong) and your losses were by a touchdown to both Kentucky and Oregon State (in Corvallis), you've got a leg up on this batch of competitors.

Big Ten

Maddening: Minnesota

Trust me, the record is only the tip of the iceberg. I live in the Twin Cities, and the wrath gets more palpable from loss to loss. The Gophers hung with USC. They were one drive from beating Northwestern. But, beginning with South Dakota, Goldie hasn't tasted victory in over a month. Minnesota now hits the road for the second time this year. Good news...the Gophers' lone win was on the road. Bad news...Middle Tennessee State isn't quite the team Wisconsin is.

Mad Genius: Michigan and Michigan State

Rich Rodriguez has been Denard Robinson's biggest fan, and the head Wolverine has reaped the benefits. It's taken a Heisman Trophy candidate to revive the "Hail" to their victories, but there is a long road to hoe for them. That all starts this upcoming weekend against their in-state rivals.

Speaking of...the Spartans simply made this list with their gutsy fake field goal to beat Notre Dame in overtime. But to have a team rally after their coach has a mild heart attack is awesome. The cherry came last weekend, when Sparty beat one of the three upper-tier squads in the conference. MSU has been good the last few years, but they just couldn't get that signature win over a team like the Badgers. If they beat the Maize and Blue this week, there could be whispers that this might be the year.

Big 12

Maddening: Texas and Kansas

Texas has tons of tradition, a huge fan base, and some championship trophies to boot. What the Longhorns don't have is a running game. Actually, UT hasn't had much of one for the last three seasons. Sure, Colt McCoy was basically a hybrid runner, but there wasn't anyone else to take the load off of the all-everything quarterback. And when the Longhorns ran into a team with a concentrated run attack (UCLA), they couldn't hold on to the ball, creating a whirlwind of a beating. Now, with a loss to Oklahoma and a matchup with Nebraska next, Bevo could have a lengthy wait between wins.

Meanwhile, Turner Gill has gotten off to a rough start in Lawrence. The Jayhawks have alternated losses and wins. The wins include a shocking victory over then-top-15 Georgia Tech. The losses ... well. North Dakota State, Southern Miss, and Baylor aren't a Steel Curtain of college football (and they got routed by the Bears). With Colorado and Iowa State scoring somewhat surprising wins in their last efforts, this could be a last-place season for KU.

Mad Genius: Texas A&M

After an appearance in the 2009 Independence Bowl, the Aggies continue to show life in 2010. Despite a close loss at Oklahoma State, A&M, behind QB Jerrod Johnson, will give their other conference opponents problems. This week's contest against Arkansas could lend us a surprise, as well.

Pac-10

Maddening: UCLA and Cal

Okay. Lose the opener in bruising fashion at Kansas State. Get shutout at home to Stanford. Then knockout the high-flying Houston Cougars and shock top-10 stalwart Texas in Austin. That's the way you draw up 2-2, right? Maybe this is the year that the Bruins will move up in the conference's order of stature. I just don't know which side to trust yet.

A lot could be told Saturday when UCLA goes to Cal. The Golden Bears did what they needed to do early. They crushed UC-Davis and blew away Colorado. Then it all went south. They let up 50-plus to Nevada and couldn't score on Arizona's defense. Now Cal has one of those games that Jeff Tedford seems to have grown famous for winning. Backs are against the wall, and wheels are threatening to fall off. One thing is certain: one of these Bears will come out of this tilt with sharper claws and nastier teeth ... supposedly.

Mad Genius: Arizona

Oregon was picked to be the class of the conference at the beginning of the year. But on September 18th, it was the Wildcats that had the best win-to-date, beating (and beating up) Iowa in the desert. Now that the Ducks have pushed Stanford aside, it might be up to the ‘Cats to spoil an Oregon repeat. Several obstacles are still visible on the way to such a blockbuster, but Arizona should be favored until they get to their game at Stanford on November 6th.

SEC

Maddening: LSU and Ole Miss

The Bayou Bengals have all the angina they need with Miles at the helm. LSU may be 5-0, but they are far from impressive. They let North Carolina back into the season opener, were flat offensively against West Virginia, and we don't need to go back into the Tennessee debacle/sudden victory. Next up is Florida ... in Gainesville ... coming off a drubbing. Yikes.

The Rebels have had their share of headaches, including a loss against Vanderbilt. But that wasn't the worst defeat in Oxford. Most of the pain stems back to opening weekend. The whole conversation during the week related to the eligibility of transfer QB Jeremiah Masoli. But late Saturday afternoon, everything turned to the stunning result on the field by Jacksonville State. And if you don't quite remember, Ole Miss led JSU in this game by 21 ... at halftime. After that, a loss to the Commodores actually is a step up.

Mad Genius: Auburn

Is it just me, or did Gene Chizik pull a Clark Kent when his plane took off from Iowa State and landed him back at his former employer two years ago? The Tigers of the Plains are one of the hot properties across the country. Cameron Newton is making good of his second stint in the SEC. But to continue on that momentum, these guys need to get off to better starts. Against Clemson and South Carolina, Auburn needed to come from behind starting the second half. I guarantee these Tigers won't enjoy eating any dust if they trail Arkansas, LSU, or Alabama.

There are other notable teams from the other conferences that can fit into these categories. For every Air Force, Miami (OH), San Diego State, and UTEP that's a "Mad Genius," there's a BYU or Central Michigan that might be a bit "Maddening." But there's only one "Mad Hatter." And if your team doesn't have him roaming the sidelines, that should be good for at least five extra seasons of health that LSU fans may not benefit from.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 7:58 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 29

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson followed his win at Dover with a runner-up at Kansas, second only to race winner Greg Biffle. Johnson also took the lead in the Sprint Cup point standing, and leads Denny Hamlin by 8.

"Our last two results have erased the disappointment of our race at New Hampshire," Johnson said. "With a win and a runner-up, as well as the points lead, you could say we put that first Chase race, as well as the Chase field, 'behind us.'"

2. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin struggled with handling in the Price Chopper 400, finishing 12th and tumbling from the lead in the point standings. Hamlin, who led Jimmie Johnson by 35 entering the race, now trails the four-time defending champion by 8.

"I guess it's fitting," Hamlin said, "that one week after the bottom fell out for Clint Bowyer, the 'top' fell out for me.

Now, Kevin Harvick and I have supposedly made up from our incident at Dover. And people want to know what's wrong with NASCAR. I'll tell you what's wrong — feuds that last only a week. A quick solution? Put Brad Keselowski in the Chase field."

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick led 16 laps and finished third in the Price Chopper 400, as Chase drivers occupied to top seven spots. Harvick improved two places in the point standings to third, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 30.

"Believe me," Harvick said. "Of all people, I know what 'striking distance' is, and we're well within striking distance. Although I wouldn't dare do the things to Jimmie Johnson that I've done to Denny Hamlin.

And speaking of Hamlin, we've mended our differences. At least that's what we're telling everyone. The truth is, our truce involves one simple agreement ... to disagree."

4. Jeff Gordon — Gordon posted his first top-five finish since Chicagoland with a fifth at Kansas, his 11th top-five of the year. Still winless in his last 58 races, Gordon jumped three places in the Sprint Cup point standings to fifth, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 58.

"I firmly believe someone could win the Cup without winning a race," Gordon said. "Of course, there are several other things one can do without winning a race. I know, because everything I've done in the last two years has been done without winning a race."

5. Greg Biffle — Biffle raced to a dominating win in the Price Chopper 500, leading 60 laps on the way to his second win of the year. Back in the title hunt, Biffle is now in eighth, 85 points back.

"The No. 16 Sherwin-Williams Ford was perfect late in the race," Biffle said. "We may not have been fastest at the start, but we were fastest when it counted. In Kansas, you can just call my car the 'High Plains Swifter."

6. Carl Edwards — Edwards started 31st and hit the top 10 midway through the race at Kansas, leading two laps on his way to a sixth-place finish, his 16th top-10 result of the year. He is now fourth in the point standings, 53 out of first.

"Although I'm from Columbia, Missouri," Edwards said, "I consider Kansas my home track. But, as my winless streak can attest, even at home I can't be a visitor to Victory Lane."

7. Kyle Busch — Busch made contact with David Reutimann early at Kansas, causing Reutimann to spin. Later in the race, with Busch running in the top 10, Reutimann struck back, sending the No. 18 M&Ms Toyota into the wall. Busch dropped to 22nd after the accident, and eventually finished 21st, one lap down. He fell four places to seventh in the point standings, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 80.

"If my name wasn't 'Busch,'" Busch said, "Reutimann would have never retaliated. It's difficult to swallow being wrecked by a driver who's not even in the Chase. Reutimann stuck his nose in where it didn't belong. You'd think I would deserve a break. I guess some free passes don't come as easily as others."

8. Kurt Busch — Busch, in the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge, finished a disappointing 13th at Kansas, undone by handling conditions at a track where he's traditionally struggled. Busch dropped two spots to sixth in the point standings, 70 behind Jimmie Johnson.

"The No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge just wasn't fast enough to challenge for the win," Busch said. "Unlike my brother Kyle, I didn't need another car to hinder my Chase chances. The one I was driving handled that fine on its own.

But I'm surprised David Reutimann wrecked Kyle. Will I seek revenge on behalf of Kyle. Will I take the '2' to tango? Unlikely. I've been called many things by many people, but never a 'nepotist.'"

9. Tony Stewart — Stewart led four times for a race-high 76 laps in the Price Chopper 400, but trouble on late restarts cost him a shot at the win. He finished fourth, and now trails new points leader Jimmie Johnson by 127 points.

"One hundred and twenty-seven points is not an impossible deficit to make up," Stewart said. "With a rash of failed inspections and a outbreak of practice session feuds, I could be back in business. In actuality, though, the deck is 'smoke-stacked' against me."

10. Jeff Burton — Late-race handling problems prevented Burton from scoring in the top five, and he instead settled for a disappointing 18th-place run at Kansas. Burton fell two places in the points to ninth, and trails Jimmie Johnson by 101 points.

"We're 101 off the lead," said Burton, "which doesn't seem so bad considering there are seven races remaining. But, upon further inspection, that large of a deficit doesn't really appeal to me."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:39 AM | Comments (0)

October 5, 2010

NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* The 2-2 San Diego Chargers lead the NFL in most yards gained and fewest yards allowed per game.

* Colts receiver Reggie Wayne leads the NFL with 33 receptions. Colts receiver Austin Collie is tied for second, with 32 receptions. In a related story, Peyton Manning is good.

* Apparently some people were displeased last week when I wrote that I didn't enjoy Enrique Iglesias' halftime performance and that there was a good reason he was no longer famous. I apologize to all six of you.

* What on earth happened to Cameron Wake after the first quarter on Monday night? He was tearing apart the Patriots' offense, and then he just disappeared.

* The first half of Sunday night's battle between the Giants and Bears provided a terrific example of a really interesting defense-oriented game. That was equal parts good defense and bad offense, and it was great entertainment.

***

Eagle fans surprised me Sunday by giving Donovan McNabb a standing ovation, even though their former quarterback was introduced wearing the uniform of a division rival. It was a classy move by fans who gave their star player plenty of reasons to feel underappreciated, and it was also instructive concerning McNabb's classiness.

When Brett Favre went to Green Bay last year wearing Viking purple, he was resoundingly booed in the same scenario in which McNabb was cheered. That's not because Packer fans are nasty, and it's certainly not because Philadelphia fans are unusually generous. It's because McNabb is a basically good guy who was traded in a situation largely out of his control, and Favre is a narcissist who deliberately made things difficult for his old club. Packer fans knew it, and Eagle fans knew it. I salute the former for booing their old QB, and the latter for cheering theirs. Good show, Philadelphia.

On to the Week 4 power rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers [1] — Yeah, they lost, but I'm not ready to rank the Chiefs here. Ben Roethlisberger comes back next week, and while he's likely to show some rust, he's also likely to put some more life in Pittsburgh's underachieving pass attack. Mike Wallace has got to be a bigger part of the offense.

2. Baltimore Ravens [4] — Two fantastic games, beating the Steelers and Jets, sandwich a pair of really mediocre performances, losing to the Bengals and squeaking by the Browns. Baltimore's passing game, anemic the first two weeks, has taken flight the last two. Fantasy football owners who gave up on Joe Flacco after Week 2 and made aggressive trades to get Michael Vick are now punching themselves in the head.

3. New York Jets [5] — The offense, written off following a pitiful Week 1, now appears to be among the league's best. The team ranks second in rushing yards, third in passer rating, fifth in scoring, and first in turnover differential. The Jets are poised to add Santonio Holmes (suspension) and Darrelle Revis (injury) to a lineup that already looks great without them. The Jets lead the NFL in point differential (+45).

4. New England Patriots [15] — Won with special teams. The Patriots had fewer yards, fewer first downs, worse third down percentage, and less time of possession, but they won by 27. Second-year safety Pat Chung, who has been impressive all season, blocked a punt, blocked a field goal, and returned an interception 51 yards for a touchdown. Randy Moss didn't catch a pass, but Wes Welker caught 8, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown.

5. Green Bay Packers [6] — Looked great the first two weeks, mediocre the last two. The Packers ran only 40 offensive plays this weekend, barely half as many as the Lions (78), and lost time of possession by more than 15 minutes. After giving away last week's game against Chicago with penalties and other miscues, this week Green Bay was the beneficiary as Detroit racked up 13 fouls for over 100 yards.

6. Atlanta Falcons [7] — What a special player Roddy White has become. He's second in the NFL in receptions, sixth in receiving yards, and his hustle on Sunday created a turnover that led to Atlanta's game-winning drive.

7. Indianapolis Colts [2] — They're 0-2 in the AFC South, 2-0 outside it. Don't panic too much about the loss to Jacksonville. The game ended on a kick that misses 90% of the time, and the Jaguars always play Indy tough. Apart from the time left on the clock, that was a classic Peyton Manning drive to tie the game, and as long as he still has the magic, this team can compete with anyone. The Colts got no sacks this weekend, and this team does need more consistent play from its defense.

8. Tennessee Titans [3] — Is it time to worry about Chris Johnson? In Week 4, he carried 19 times for 53 yards, the third straight week he's averaged under 4 yards per attempt. If we include preseason, which we probably shouldn't, it was the sixth time in his last seven games that Johnson was held under 4 yds/att, the fourth time time he was under 3 yds/att. I'd like to see Vince Young run more, to open things up for the rest of the offense.

9. Dallas Cowboys [11] — Every team in the NFC East has two losses. I still believe Dallas is the outstanding team in the division. If DeMarcus Ware can consistently perform the way he did in Week 3 (or the past five seasons, for that matter), the Cowboys have the best defense in the group, and if Jason Garrett is willing to call runs once in a while, they have the best offense, too.

10. Kansas City Chiefs [13] — The most intriguing matchup of Week 5 pits the undefeated Chiefs against the 2-2 Colts. We're about to find out which of these two teams is for real.

11. New Orleans Saints [8] — Averaged 31.9 points per game last season. So far this year, they're at 19.8, right between the Lions (20.5) and Rams (19.2). Drew Brees' continuing excellence notwithstanding, they look like a pretty average offensive team. The opponents they've beaten have a combined record of 1-10.

12. Houston Texans [12] — Players who have gained at least 500 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards in the first four games of a season: Jim Brown, Billy Sims, Emmitt Smith, and Arian Foster. The '63 Browns, '80 Lions, and '95 Cowboys all opened 4-0. Houston is 3-1. That's a heck of a track record.

13. San Diego Chargers [18] — A rankings rollercoaster, great one week and awful the next. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates are always exceptional, but this time around they were even a little better than usual, and some of their teammates showed up, too. Shaun Phillips had four sacks and an interception.

14. Miami Dolphins [9] — Last season, the Dolphins beat the Jets in Week 8 because of superior special teams. On Monday night, they lost because of special teams disasters: a pair of blocked kicks and a kickoff returned for a touchdown. Offensively and defensively, the game was close.

15. Minnesota Vikings [16] — Last season, relying on a strong running game and playing a remarkably weak schedule, Favre threw only 7 interceptions. Through three games this year, Favre already has 6 INTs, putting him on pace for 32. His passer rating is 60.4, about the same as Derek Anderson (59.5).

16. Cincinnati Bengals [10] — Terrell Owens, at age 36, is fifth in the NFL in receiving yards (374). Last season, when they won the AFC North, the Bengals were one of four teams with at least 500 rushing attempts, averaging 128.5 rushing yards per game. This year, they're 16th in rush attempts per game and average just 92 yards on the ground.

17. Denver Broncos [23] — It has come to this, Bears fans: Kyle Orton leads the NFL in passing yards. He's actually on pace, and this doesn't mean much after four games, for 5,676 yards, which would shatter the single-season record (5,084, set by Dan Marino in 1984). I'm not sure this is a good thing, but Orton actually led the Broncos in rushing this week, too, with 11 yards.

18. Washington Redskins [20] — I'm not sure how they're doing so well. There's not anything they're particularly good at. They're don't have a great passing game or a consistent ground attack, and they're terrible on third down. They're not a great run defense, and they can't stop the pass. They're pretty average rushing the passer, and they don't create turnovers. But they protect the ball and make plays when they have to, and they're 2-0 in their division. A couple funny bounces the other way, and this team could be 0-4, or 4-0.

19. Philadelphia Eagles [14] — I wrote two weeks ago about how often Michael Vick gets hit, and now it looks like he's probably out for at least a couple of weeks with a rib injury. Kevin Kolb's stats against Washington weren't awful, and he put the team in position to win. Certainly, the loss doesn't fall solely on Kolb. But DeSean Jackson caught three passes for 19 yards on Sunday, with a long of 9. This guy is one of the premier deep threats in the NFL, and you simply cannot ignore him to check it down to the running back 12 times.

20. New York Giants [21] — In Week 4 of the 2007 season, Osi Umenyiora sacked Donovan McNabb 6 times. For 30 minutes, culminating in a concussion that knocked Jay Cutler out of the game, it looked like that kind of night in the Meadowlands. Justin Tuck and Umenyiora registered 3 sacks each, combining for 3 forced fumbles, and led the Giants to a win in which only two offensive skill players (Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks) did anything to speak of.

21. Chicago Bears [17] — That's a night Jay Cutler will want to forget ... and there's a good chance he'll get his wish. Sorry, no more concussion jokes. The Bears went 0/13 on third downs Sunday night, and their offense was ineffective in pretty much every way possible. As of this writing it is not clear who will start at quarterback next week. Cutler apparently might, and I'm not sure that's such a good idea.

22. Cleveland Browns [28] — This is a different, much better offense with Seneca Wallace and Peyton Hillis. Those two should keep their jobs even when the whole team is healthy. It's nice to see Josh Cribbs getting more touches on offense, too. Matt Roth sacked Carson Palmer twice this weekend, and Kenyon Coleman recovered two Palmer fumbles. It's entirely possible that the Browns should rank higher than this.

23. Seattle Seahawks [19] — Bye in Week 5, so they have plenty of time to mull over the fact that they lost to the Rams by 17. The last time the Rams beat anyone by 17 was two years ago, and it was two years before that, too. I think it's even money that the NFC West champion will finish below .500.

24. San Francisco 49ers [24] — This is how bad the NFC West is: the 49ers are 0-4, and they still have a very real chance to win their division. Nate Clements made what should have been a game-ending interception against Atlanta, giving the Niners their first win of the season. Fall on the ball, run out the clock. Clements, though, went for personal glory, losing the ball and the game.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [25] — This is much too early in the season for bye weeks.

26. St. Louis Rams [27] — James Hall is not particularly well-known to most fans, but this is his 11th season in the NFL. Against Seattle, Hall picked up his 50th career sack and his third forced fumble of the season, tying him with James Harrison and Umenyiora for the league lead. Everyone wants to talk about Sam Bradford having an okay game, but you'll beat just about anyone when you only allow three points.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars [31] — Offense came alive against the Colts, with huge games from both David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew. The hero, of course, was Josh Scobee, who made a 59-yard field goal as time expired, and then went appropriately crazy. That's a huge kick. I'm not sure what this means, but Garrard threw exclusively to Tiquan Underwood on the final drive. Mike Sims-Walker, the team's leading receiver in 2009, was held without a catch for the second time this season.

28. Detroit Lions [26] — Against the Packers, Shaun Hill passed for 331 yards and ran for 53 more. Hill has played well in relief of the injured Matthew Stafford, though probably not well enough to start a serious quarterback controversy, especially in a year when the Lions are clearly not playoff-bound. Four Lion receivers, including two tight ends (Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler), have at least 20 catches this season. Pettigrew leads the team in both receptions (22) and yards (249).

29. Oakland Raiders [29] — Tight end Zach Miller had a career game: 11 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD. Apart from Darren McFadden and Miller, the passing game was not successful, with Bruce Gradkowski taking four sacks and committing three turnovers. NFL teams need wide receivers in order to win.

30. Arizona Cardinals [22] — Derek Anderson could single-handedly get Kurt Warner into the Hall of Fame. Most fans expected a dropoff in the Cardinals' passing game, but not like this. Rookie Max Hall came in for Anderson this Sunday, and it seems unlikely he can be any worse. Arizona was out-gained by nearly 300 yards in this weekend's rout.

31. Carolina Panthers [32] — James Anderson had a huge game against the Saints: 14 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble. Steve Smith's ankle injury drops their pathetic passing game to the level of a good college team.

32. Buffalo Bills [30] — Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick led the Bills in rushing this weekend, and that's seldom a good sign. Worse is that Fitzpatrick led the team by 50 yards. Buffalo has been outscored by 64 points this year, an average of more than two touchdowns per game.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 7:31 PM | Comments (7)

Guy Forget and France Face Big Challenge

On the first weekend of December, Serbia and France will meet in Belgrade Arena for a showdown to determine the winner of 2010 Davis Cup. Serbia has yet to win Davis Cup; France has won it in 2001. While Serbia will have the advantage of playing at home in front of 16,000-plus fans and profit from the services of the world's number two player Novak Djokovic, France will arrive to the tie having shown time and time again that they are not to be counted out in Davis Cup.

That spirit of being able to pull victories from an unlikely position is the trademark of their captain Guy Forget, who is likely to bring back some bad memories for American tennis fans when, as a player, he and teammate Henri Leconte pulled a monumental upset in the finals of Davis Cup in 1991 over the American team composed of Andre Agassi, Pete Sampras, and the doubles tandem of Ken Flach and Robert Seguso. This year, Forget is the captain and the driving force behind his team's persistent march to the finals.

Forget calls the conquest of the Davis Cup trophy, referred to as "Le Saladier" (the Salad Bowl) by the French, "a common project, above all a common dream" of the French Davis Cup team. This little phrase that he murmured 10 days ago during an interview to a French publication sums up efficiently the success of the French Davis Cup in reaching the finals, as well as Forget's formula for that success as a captain.

While it's true that the French have enjoyed the friendship of fortune by playing every match at home so far and by Rafael Nadal being absent from the quarterfinals tie against Spain, to say that Forget and his boys have been lucky is simply inaccurate. Spain still had a remarkable team with Fernando Verdasco, David Ferrer, and Feliciano Lopez and Forget did not have his best guns available in singles. Furthermore, Forget has had roadblocks himself on the way to the finals, one of them being that he has had neither his best singles players, nor his best doubles team available for every outing. In other words, he has had to scramble, too, yet he seemed to make the right decisions at every turn.

Gaël Monfils has been there for every match, but the two other former top-10 players, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gilles Simon, have been hampered by injuries and the usually-reliable doubles player Julien Benneteau was missing against Argentina in the semifinal tie. Richard Gasquet, enjoying his first full trouble-free season on the tour in a while, only gained his form in the summer of 2010; as a result, he has yet to be selected to the team. Forget persevered, managed to squeeze maximum mileage out of serve-and-volleyer Michael Llodra in singles, as well as doubles, and even received an unlikely push from the 32-year-old and clearly past-his-prime Arnaud Clement to replace Benneteau and step in with Llodra for a clinching doubles win against Argentina in the semifinals.

Forget's "common dream" motto is evidently contagious. Benneteau said to the French newspaper Le Monde, "winning [the] Davis Cup, it's not done with four players, but with a group of 6-7 players who give everything they have." Clement said after winning the tie-clinching doubles match that it was less special to win that match than seeing all his teammates cheering him during the match because "it's those guys who have qualified France for the semifinals". All the top French players, whether selected or not, have been present during each Davis Cup encounter to enforce that feeling of unity. However, to understand the interaction between Forget and the players, one must look beyond the stories of the match weekends.

Fresh from the joy and celebration of victory, the same Sunday that France closed out the semifinal victory on September 19th, Forget was already working out the details of his scheduling for the next two months in preparation for the finals in Serbia. When asked if he was tired, he replied that it was the "good kind" of fatigue and gave signals of what is already occupying his mind: resolving the doubles situation, choosing the best possible pair in view of the possibility of Benneteau's injury lingering on, and taking on, with Lionel Roux from his coaching team, a full traveling schedule to attend the upcoming tournaments in Asia and in Europe throughout October and November, in order to see up-close the progress of the players.

If everyone is healthy by the end of November, Forget will have plenty of options, despite lacking a big star like Novak Djokovic on the Serbian side. Is that a good problem to have? Benneteau said tongue-in-cheek that, "Guy will have a headache." However, it would seem that Forget's decision will be respected by the players that certainly enjoy having a Davis Cup captain who seems to be fully engaged in the cause and always present at every tournament in every corner of the world for no reason other than the success of the French players in mind.

The impressive thing about Forget's ability to form a unity and to center the focus of the team on the conquest of the trophy is that he has not necessarily gotten help from the French fans and media at every level. While the crowds during the matches remain a force to be reckoned (should we expect anything less, in all honesty?), Forget's every decision and move is scrutinized by the French media, always ready for an emblematic phrase to attract attention. Let us not forget that tennis remains stunningly popular in France, so most tennis-related news occupies central spots in the news.

Even when he is "thinking" of something, Forget faces a barrage of commentaries and questions, as was the case in 2009 when he mentioned that he talked to Yannick Noah about coming back to help with the Davis Cup team. Why would he do that? Is he out of touch? Is he afraid of winning? This is just one example.

And then there are those who are ready to attack the players for anything other than their tennis-related activities. Richard Gasquet has been called a "druggie," some of the others, as well as Gasquet, have been labeled a "loser" (the term adapted from English with a French accent: "loos-ehrr") at various times for letting matches escape them, and even the whole team has been disowned by some fans and called the "Swiss Davis Cup Team" (Forget himself and every member of the French Davis Cup Team this year resides in Switzerland, except Llodra). Known for being a level-headed personality who thinks twice before reacting, Forget always remained above this level by focusing on the team's unity.

On paper, Serbia is the favorite to win the tie. Djokovic will be clearly the best player on that weekend and Janko Tipsarevic has become the Davis Cup hero for Serbia following his crucial victories over Thomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek to lift Serbia over Czech Republic 3-2 in the semifinals. So it is very possible that France could end on the short end and Forget could hear it from all the so-called "experts." But I have little doubt that if France wins the "Salad Bowl," Forget will give most of the credit to his players and others, although he may well deserve it himself.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 2:49 PM | Comments (0)

October 4, 2010

The BCS Projections ... For Now

As we've entered the second month of the college football season, the BCS picture still looks fairly clouded. Some slots seem to be locks for teams that have already stood out from the competition, while other spots could end up being an absolute brawl to the end.

So who's in, and who's out? Here's my latest BCS bowl projections to date.

Orange: Miami (FL) vs. West Virginia

The ACC is one gigantic mess. Florida State showed early promise, but the blowout loss to Oklahoma raised some doubts. Virginia Tech simply imploded at the start and Clemson remains inconsistent with the ghosts of what might've been against Auburn. Miami is playing the best football in the conference right now and is the logical pick to stay at home for the Orange Bowl. I see them taking on West Virginia. The Mountaineers appear to be the best team in a very weak Big East, even for Big East standards. The Orange Bowl has the potential to have some steak to it, but not much sizzle.

Fiesta: Nebraska vs. Arizona

The Fiesta takes the Big 12 champion, which I think right now will be Nebraska. Oklahoma is ranked sixth and is undefeated, but I really can't see the Sooner offense having much success against Nebraska's rugged defensive unit. The Sooners are undefeated, but besides the rout of Florida State, have won in fairly ugly fashion (the again, a win's a win, right, OU?).

Nebraska could be the victim of the BCS system; they could easily be undefeated after the regular season, but be behind two or three other undefeated squads. I have the Huskers taking on Arizona. Given the strength of the Pac-10 this year, I'm going ahead and putting two teams from the conference in the BCS. I'm very tempted to put Stanford in this spot; I like the Cardinal and wouldn't be surprised if they made it here. However, I'm jumping on Arizona's and Nick Foles's bandwagon for now; they are playing solid football down in Tucson and could be the story of the college football season this year. Do I hear another Stoops for National Coach of the Year?

Sugar: Arkansas vs. Oklahoma

Ah, Sooners. You might be upset that I'm thinking Huskers for the conference title, but you still make it to BCS territory. Oklahoma might win ugly at times, but good teams find ways to win. Oklahoma has a strong case of winning out the regular season, but I'd still have them falling to Nebraska, which sends the Sooners to Bourbon Street.

On the other side, I have Arkansas in as process of elimination. With Alabama in the title game, I see Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Auburn, and Arkansas fighting for the Sugar invite. Florida's rough loss indicates they might lose a few more, and if Alabama takes out South Carolina, that leaves the three from the SEC West. LSU's miracles against North Carolina and Tennessee won't last all season, so that boils it down to the Auburn/Arkansas winner. Despite Auburn having a much easier schedule down the road, I see Arkansas beating the Tigers in a shootout and getting past South Carolina to set up a border showdown in New Orleans.

Rose: Ohio State vs. Boise State

Boise State fans, comment below and protest all you want, but wins over Virginia Tech and Oregon State don't entice me enough to believe that the Broncos deserve a BCS title game invite. I think Boise's a solid team, and I do wish more teams would take the Boise challenge. However, until there's a playoff, Boise needs to stack up quality opponents in order to win over the voters.

The Broncos will get a pretty good consolation prize though in a trip to Pasadena. They'll take on Ohio State, who could easily go undefeated, but given their shaky performance at Illinois, the Buckeyes have raised more doubts with me than the two teams I have picked for the title game. Ohio State still has some tough hurdles to jump over in conference play, but Terrelle Pryor is no doubt the real deal and is worthy of strong Heisman consideration. It may not be the title game, but Boise will have a chance to make yet another big statement.

BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Oregon

I don't think anyone can doubt picking Alabama right now. The Tide breezed past Florida, and if they take care of South Carolina, they should be the team with no problems getting a chance to defend their title. The young 'Bama defense has definitely grown up fast under Nick Saban. The question is if they'll be ready for the Oregon offensive juggernaut. Sure, Oregon has a tough schedule ahead of them, and their defense might be a bit suspect, but how many teams in the country can fall behind 21-3 to a top-10 program and storm back to a relatively easy win? Oregon's mettle was tested, and the Ducks came out winners.

What both teams have in common is that the real stars of their teams are in the trenches. Alabama always has immense talent on the offensive and defensive lines, and you have to say, at least offensively, the line at Oregon is one of the best, if not the best. Think how easy it was for Oregon to replace Jeremiah Masoli, or even LaGarette Blount, for most of last season. No offense given to LaMichael James, who is a phenomenal running back, but the Duck offensive line has made life easier for Chip Kelly and his program. Who wins, though? Right now, I have to take Alabama, whose balance has them geared for a repeat title.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 7:26 PM | Comments (2)

2010 MLB Playoff Predictions

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

Analysis

To me, this is the most compelling playoff series of the first round. I think the Rangers matchup very well with the Rays, who enjoy the luxury of home-field advantage, kind of. I mean, even if they hand out tickets to boost attendance again, which seems unlikely for a playoff series, the average fan in Tampa is a retiree with nothing better to do. So you'll have to excuse me for not thinking that playing at home will be a huge help to a Tampa Bay team that won only two more games at home than on the road.

The Rangers should enter postseason play expecting to score runs in bunches, especially given the fact that no other MLB team had a higher team batting average this year, and that only four teams scored more runs. There are really no easy outs in this lineup, and with MVP candidate Josh Hamilton anchoring it, teams will never feel like any lead they might have is safe. With Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, the Rangers have an offense to be feared.

What they lack in home-field advantage, the Rays make up for in young talent, particularly their pitchers. A look at their young hurlers will impress anyone, as the Rays finish the season ranked eighth in ERA, and top four in quality starts, WHIP, and BAA. With the time they have to rest between games in a playoff series schedule, the Rays' top three starters are all they will really need. When David Price can pitch twice before a potential Game 5, you're going to have a chance to win the series.

Prediction

With the Rays' pitching vs. the Rangers' hitting being a deadlock, the difference will be the Rangers' talented top starters against a young Rays offense, with the Rangers winning the series, 3-2.

Rangers win series, 3-2.

New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins

Analysis

The Yankees are in the playoffs, and nobody is surprised. There is no jubilation from New York, no cries of "this is our year!" It may very well be their year, but when you've been here as much as they have, it's hard to get excited until you've actually won at least a few playoff games. As far as hitting goes, they got exactly what they paid for — a lineup averaging a league-leading 5.3 runs per game and that has compiled a team OBP of .350. That alone will keep them in playoff games. They do have an obvious Achilles heel with their pitching, though, and it will eventually come back to haunt them.

Even though there really is a lot to like about this Twins team, they backed into the playoffs, winning only two of their last 10 games, and losing home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in the process. Yet by the twisted rules currently employed by Major League Baseball, they do enjoy an extra home game against the Yankees, despite having a worse record. I love their offense (although they will be without Justin Morneau for the entire postseason), but their only starter with an ERA below 3.62 is converted middle-reliever Brian Duensing, whose ERA ballooned by 0.43 over his last three starts, and who had a 1.78 WHIP over the same period.

Prediction

The plummeting Twins fall prey to a matchup nightmare. With both teams having an advantage of their lineup against the opposing pitching, the Twins are left trying to outscore the Yankees for three out of five games. Good luck with that. The Yankees win this series, 3-1.

Yankees win series, 3-1.

Cincinnati Reds @ Philadelphia Phillies

Analysis

The Reds might be in trouble. Not only are they facing the odds-on favorite to win the World Series, but they must do so playing an extra game on the road, where they were only three games over .500 in the regular season, and in a ballpark their opponent went 54-30 in. Their team-leading ERA belongs to Johnny Cueto at 3.64, and the Phillies have a great offense. The Reds can only win if their young and at times childish and immature players like Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto can continue to lead the team to score runs at their league-leading pace, even in the face of pressure they've never experienced before.

The Phillies have been on fire since getting Roy Oswalt, going 42-17. Cole Hamels has the highest ERA of the three starters who will get most of the starts, at 3.06. With Hamels, Roy Halladay, and Roy Oswalt, the Phillies have a group of starters that should give any opposing lineup fits. Add in a proven offense, and you've got a recipe for success.

Prediction

The Phillies completely overwhelm the young Reds, winning the series, 3-0.

Phillies win series, 3-0.

Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants

Analysis

The Braves waited until the last day to clinch a playoff berth in Bobby Cox's last year as manager, which only seems fitting. Cox is already a legend, and he deserves one more shot at a World Series ring. Everybody done with the happy thoughts? Good, because they might make a quick exit from the playoffs. Why? To start with, they coughed up a fairly sizeable lead in their division, ending the season six games behind the Phillies. Then, take into consideration that they finished the season 35-46 on the road and are starting the series with two games on the road against a Giants team that was 49-32 at home.

If you're still not convinced, think about their biggest strength, which is their pitching. As good as their pitchers are, they're not as good as the Giants' pitchers, meaning the Braves don't present any matchup problems for the Giants.

The Giants not only have the aforementioned out of this world pitching, but they also have a young lineup that scores enough runs to complement them well. Sure, the Braves' offense is a little better, but I don't see Atlanta scoring many runs off the team 3.36 ERA that the Giants boast. The key for the Giants is stringing hits together to score runs, which they may have some trouble doing.

Prediction

After four close games, the Giants win a pitching duel in Game 5, taking the series, 3-2.

Giants win series, 3-2.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 4:02 PM | Comments (4)

October 3, 2010

Yankees Should Avoid Burnett in Postseason

Since 1920, 391 Yankees pitchers have had a seasonal ERA of at least 5.30. Of all those pitchers, no pitcher has been allowed to pitch as many innings as A.J. Burnett.

Why? Because Burnett is on a five-year deal, and he is making $16.5 million this season. Essentially, he is here to stay and the Yankees don't want to hurt his feelings, and it is mentally very difficult to waste $16.5 million dollars.

In 2010, Burnett is working on the worst ERA of his career. He is also stacking up the most hits per nine innings in a season, and the most home runs per nine innings. His velocity and strike percentage are also way down.

In case you haven't caught on, Burnett is not having a good season, on anyone's standards. You can sit through a Joe Girardi press conference and listen to myths about Burnett's stuff, but results are results, and Burnett is simply not performing.

Like I said earlier, the Yankees have stuck with Burnett all the way through this mess, and that is likely due to his big, long-term contract. Say all you want about his potential, but Javier Vazquez has potential, too, and you didn't see the Yankees treat him very well.

So here is my question to you: if you could avoid using one of your worst starting pitchers in the playoffs, would you?

With the playoffs looming, the Yankees are expected to have Burnett in the postseason starting rotation.

Here is my message to the Yankees: you don't need to have Burnett start, so don't do it.

By now you are aware of Major League Baseball's brilliant ability to prolong the playoffs. However, in this case, it may actually help the Yankees. Due to the two days off in between Games two and three, the Yankees could easily get by on a three-man rotation, just like they did last year.

CC Sabathia would pitch Game 1, and then pitch on short rest — when he is better — in Game 4. Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes would fill in the other two slots in some undetermined order.

This is all assuming that Pettitte can perform. In two starts since returning from the disabled list, Pettitte has one great start and one horrible start. You expect him to be on his game as he usually is. Hopefully.

Hughes, the 24-year-old right-hander, has been a bit shaky in the past month, but his lights-out start last time out against the Red Sox was enough to make us believe that he can return to his early to midseason form.

Bottom line: the Yankees have a much better chance to win in the postseason with a three-man rotation than they do with four-man rotation that includes Burnett.

Burnett has been everything the Yankees feared this season. Money and a desire to keep him happy are not enough to allow this pitcher to sink the Yankees in the playoffs. The Yankees can get by without trouble with a three-man rotation. Avoiding Burnett is possible, and it should be done.

Posted by Jess Coleman at 6:20 PM | Comments (0)