How Virginia Tech Screwed Boise State

Boise State started the year with a 33-30 victory over Virginia Tech that made a lot of people think that this would finally be the year they would have a legitimate shot at being selected to the National Championship Game.

After week one of the college football season, it seemed at least parts of the Associated Press were convinced. In the preseason poll, Boise State received one first-place vote and was ranked third, a good, strong healthy sign. After beating Virginia Tech, they had eight, narrowing the gap considerably between first-place Alabama and themselves. But Ohio State was still in the middle, with less first-place votes, but still number two.

Then disaster struck. In week two, Boise State was idle and Virginia Tech was playing the (you've never heard of them) James Madison Dukes. It was a game they should have won by four touchdowns. They lost 21-16. The Hokies dropped completely from the ranks of any poll and sadly, Boise State suffered, as well.

Remaining at number three, their number of first place votes plummeted back down to third and the distance between first and third was even higher than it had been in the preseason. It remains to be seen, but that loss to James Madison may have completely ruined Boise State's chances at the National Championship Game.

In April, I wondered if this could be the year for Boise State. In that article, I outlined five situations that would help Boise State along the way to the big game. Let us revisit those.

1. The Broncos will need to win the rest of their games.

Obvious, but so far so good as they destroyed Wyoming on the road. The real test will come next week against Oregon State.

Chances it will happen: 75%

2. The Beavers and Hokies must have good seasons.

This is the problem the Broncos are running into. The Hokies look pretty rough. They need to pull it together and win the ACC or at least contend. Oregon State has already lost to TCU, but look forward to Oregon State's matchups with their ranked conference foes, Arizona, USC, Stanford and Oregon. If they can win two of those, that would help the Broncos considerably. If both teams end the season unranked, Boise State has a very slim chance of being invited to Glendale.

Chances it will happen: 15%

3. There cannot be a plethora of unbeaten teams standing in the way.

TCU looks to have just as much claim as Boise State to the ranks of top two teams in the nation. A TCU loss at Utah on November 6 would help the Broncos a lot, but that would mean Utah would probably be undefeated, as well, having already beaten Pittsburgh. Utah may acquire losses later in the season at Air Force, at Notre Dame, or perhaps against BYU, but they don't look so hot at the moment.

Chances it will happen: 60%

4. Without a conference championship game, the Big Ten and Pac-10 will both need to boast champions with two losses. The Big East, as less of a powerhouse, can have a champion with one loss.

I'm not sure if this one remains true. With USC's rule breaking, they won't be in the way, but Oregon is worrisome. A one-loss Oregon team sounds pretty solid to me.

In the Big Ten, Iowa and Penn State have already lost, and Wisconsin looks weak. Ohio State is the real challenge. Finding two losses for them won't be easy.

Chances it will happen: 35%

5. Either the Big 12 or the SEC championship games will need an upset.

Undefeated Texas or Oklahoma will be a no-brainer in the National Championship Game. Those teams with one loss are not a bad idea, either. The Big 12 poses a challenge in that Nebraska looks really good. If they end up with a one-loss season and play Texas or Oklahoma with a one-loss season for the Big 12 title, both teams sound pretty good to me in a National Championship Game against Alabama, Florida, or Ohio State.

Alabama has a really tough road. They play at Arkansas, at South Carolina, at LSU, and at home against Florida and Auburn. The SEC needs to beat each other up big time and that could happen. If Alabama escapes with one loss with that schedule and wins the SEC title game, they'll still be in the National Championship Game (unless Ohio State and a Big 12 team go undefeated).

Chances it will happen: 20%

What Boise State has going for it at this point in time is that they were ranked really high right out of the gate. A number three ranking helps considerably since polls are taken into account by the BCS computers. What I believe will unfortunately happen is Boise State will drop when power conference teams remain undefeated. Texas, Oregon, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Florida all have the potential to jump Boise State in the upcoming weeks, even if Boise State continues to win.

As of today, the chances Boise State will actually be playing for the national championship is 10%. And they can blame the vast majority of that on Virginia Tech.