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September 30, 2010

Picture This

There was a record number of reporters covering the start of the Miami Heat's training camp. They normally have around 60, and they reportedly had a few more than 12,000 there this season. The problem is the report that a few reporters even posed for pictures with LeBron and Dwayne Wade.

That is not okay. I know the average guy might say, hey, what's the big deal? But the fact of the matter is that it's completely degrading to journalism and the media industry as a whole.

The report didn't say what media members were posing for pictures, but if I had to wager a guess, I'd say it was either a radio guy or a blogger. I know how that sounds, like I'm engaging in the age-old (or 10-year-old) debate about mainstream media vs. new media, but I'm not. That's an absurd argument. Blogs are awesome. Mainstream media has some problems to fix, but they play an important role, too. The problem is that is completely embarrassing and degrading to what I do.

Reporters are not fans. There has to be at least a façade of professionalism. I know the days of the 1950s are over and journalists and athletes don't hang out at the bar after hours as equals. I understand the mentality of the young reporter in his early 20s making less than $30k a year and how he would be in awe of being in the same room as LeBron James. But you have to keep yourself together. I understand all reporters aren't as objective as they should be, but come the hell on, he's another grown man. You don't need to worship the ground he walks on. If I ran into Jesus H. Christ at my local Laundromat, I wouldn't even bother him for a picture. Why? Because I'm a man, and that's dumb.

And I'm not sanctimonious enough to suggest that this is the first time something like this has happened. There was a big brouhaha in Cincinnati a month ago over a reporter asking a player for an autograph and I've seen it happen before when I've covered events.

I've covered a handful of major UFC shows and you see this sort of behavior all the time. After the press conference for the first big PPV I covered, a line formed as reporters were going up to Randy Couture to ask for his autograph or to get a picture. At a media session the day before a big show, I saw two reporters interview Tim Sylvia (back when he was relevant) and when they were done they posed for pictures.

It's not fair to label Internet outlets as the entire problem, because then you sound like your elderly uncle who asks you at Thanksgiving "what this Tweeter thing is all about?" Some of the people I've met who work at websites are great reporters and great writers. Some are just fanboys. That same thing goes for radio and TV and even print guys, as well. Nothing is more disheartening to someone that actually cares about journalism.

It's not like you can't have your special moment with a great athlete without having to completely embarrass a profession by capturing it on film. A friend of mine who used to work in radio once had a lengthy conversation with A-Rod about a squirrel delay at a game. A friend who worked in TV once relayed a conversation he had with a future Hall of Famer about how this player hated holidays because those were the days he had to perform cunninlingus on his wife. Each of those guys had a unique story from their jobs and they obtained that without having to act like clowns.

People lose their mind that an attractive lady wore attractive clothing as a reporter in the Jets locker room. Just know this. Asking for your picture with an athlete you're covering is 10 times worse. That reporter could've paraded through the Jets locker room wearing nothing but a thong and a mesh jersey and it still would've been more professional than the tool that asked for his picture with LeBron.

Real media members do enough to embarrass themselves already. They have to answer for people like Jay Mariotti. What media professionals don't need is a guy who treats his first media credential like it's an all-access pass he paid for.

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 11:59 PM | Comments (0)

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 4

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

NY Jets @ Buffalo (+4½)

With the win over the winless Bills, the Jets could successfully run the gauntlet of their AFC East competitors. In consecutive weeks, New York has taken down the Patriots and Dolphins, thanks mostly to the arm of Mark Sanchez, who has thrown for 6 touchdowns in the two wins.

"Speaking of 'running gauntlets,'" Rex Ryan said, "Ines Sainz had enough the first time, and she probably won't be back at practice 'asking for it.' I guess you could say 'baby got back' to Mexico.

As for the Jets, offensively, we're where we want to be. Defensively, we're not. The absence of Darrelle Revis really changes the complexion of our defense. The important thing is we managed without him. Against Miami, the route from "Revis Island" to victory was along "Braylon Edwards Drive." It's a winding road, and if you're walking it, it's tough to do it in a straight line.

Anyway, Edwards' 67-yard touchdown catch from Sanchez was huge. Braylon's a threat to go all the way, on the field, that is, but not home, after a few drinks."

The Bill released quarterback Trent Edwards, one week after he was benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick. And rumors are swirling that the Bills are fielding offers for running back Marshawn Lynch.

"I see where the Jaguars were awarded Edwards off waivers," Chan Gailey said. "I'm stunned ... that it's classified as an 'award.'"

Sanchez stays hot, throwing for 2 scores, and the Jets' defense wraps up Fitzpatrick and the Bills' offense.

New York wins, 26-13.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-3)

The undefeated Steelers may be the hottest team in the NFL, winning their three games by an average margin of 11 points, even with a quarterback situation that has been steeped in uncertainty due to injuries and the suspension of Ben Roethlisberger. Should Pittsburgh overcome the Ravens, Roethlisberger would inherit a 4-0 team when the Steelers host the Browns in Week 6 after a bye week.

"I won't guarantee, promise, or certify Ben's job when he returns," Mike Tomlin said, "to anyone other than Ben himself. But, the job is Ben's, if he wants it. And, as we all know, when Ben wants something, he takes it.

Frankly, I find it hard to believe people found it difficult to believe this team could function so well without Roethlisberger. I had no doubt our defense would get us through. They've got more meaningful 'carries' than the Broncos rushing crew."

With Ray Rice likely out with a knee contusion, the Ravens will have to attack the Steelers through the air. Their prized free agent acquisition, Anquan Boldin, paid huge dividends in last week's 24-17 win over the Browns, with 3 touchdown catches.

"Boldin's a beast," said John Harbaugh, "and should remain one until he tweaks his hamstring in Week 8. For now, though, he's Joe Flacco's go-to guy. After a shaky first two weeks, Flacco had a solid game last week. That was probably the result of the confluence of having something to prove, and having something to improve."

The intensity is always extreme for Ravens/Steelers game, but it reaches a crescendo when, early in the game on a screen pass, Hines Ward blindsides Ed Reed, in street clothes and on the sideline. The Ravens retaliate the best they know how, with a Billy Cundiff field goal.

The Steelers rebound, and force 3 Flacco turnovers, including 2 red zone interceptions.

Pittsburgh wins, 18-9.

Detroit @ Green Bay (-14½)

The Packers were penalized a whopping 18 times for 152 yards, contributing to Monday night's 20-17 loss in Chicago. Green Bay also suffered several special teams breakdowns, including a blocked field goal and a punt return surrendered for a touchdown.

"When you get to 18 penalties," Mike McCarthy said, "it becomes more than simply a problem. It becomes an epidemic, or a felony. That's a lot of yellow. Throw in some Packer green and you got the makings of new uniforms.

It's a loss that's hard to swallow. You wake up the next day and ask 'What happened?,' much like Al Harris would if he wakened from a 12-hour nap and found his weave tangled beyond repair. We can fix this; it will just take time."

With a loss at Lambeau Filed, the Lions will be staring an 0-3 division hole in the face. Detroit hasn't won a game in Green Bay since 1991, and a win over a Packer team stinging from defeat seems next to impossible.

"I feel the Packers' pain," said Calvin Johnson. "I too was a victim of the NFL rulebook. Of course, while it left the Packers seeing red, the rule book left me seeing a shade of grey."

Green Bay wins, 34-20.

Denver @ Tennessee (-7)

While the 1-2 Broncos at the 2-1 Titans clash is certainly not the NFL's game of the week, it will still claim its fair share of viewers, most notably the millions of Tim Tebow followers, fans of the band Blind Faith, and the eleven bastard children of former Broncos and Titans running back Travis Henry.

"That's a full house," Jeff Fisher said. "I don't think LP Field has been that packed since May, when it was full of water.

But just like those children are dependent on a running back for support, so are we. Make no mistake, Chris Henry's legs drive this team as much as his dental habits drive the price of gold.

The best thing to happen to Chris was getting rid of LenDale White. Chris always bristled at being 'lumped' together with that tubby son of a gun, and he never like the 'Smash and Dash' nickname given them. We all saw last year what Chris could do once he went 'fat-free.'"

The Broncos have offset their lack of a running game with the exploits of Kyle Orton, who is second in the NFL with 1,078 yards passing. Orton threw for 476 in last week's 27-13 loss to Indianapolis.

"Tebow is certainly an influential fellow," Orton said. "I'll give him that. I've even taken to displaying Bible verses on my eye black. Last week, I did a little preaching to the Colts pass defense. 'Orton 4:76' says 'I just whipped your ass.'"

Johnson posts 185 yards of total offense, and Vince Young tosses two scoring passes. Afterwards, Young signs a young fan's poster that reads "VinY, VidY, VicY," and apologizes for his inability to read Latin.

Titans win, 30-17.

Cincinnati @ Cleveland (+3)

The 2-1 Bengals bring their brand of grind-it-out football to Cleveland Stadium, home of the Dawg Pound, where spaying and neutering is a fate sure to be bestowed

The Bengals boast on offensive lineup that includes weapons such as Carson Palmer, Chad Ochocinco, Terrell Owens, and Cedric Benson. Surprisingly, though, Cincy often struggles to score, averaging slightly less than 20 points per game.

"That's what you call an offensive jugger-naught," said Marvin Lewis. "Our 'Batman and Robin' receiving duo of Owens and Ochocinco, who, incidentally, are super friends, don't carry a whole lot of touchdowns in their utility belts. If you need a sound byte, however, they've got plenty.

But offense is not our game; we've got loads of confidence in our defense, and they've got loads of confidence in themselves. Which isn't surprising — they practice against our offense."

The Browns are still winless, with three losses by a total of 12 points. A win over their hated in-state rival would assuage some of the pain of losing.

"'Assuage?'" says defensive tackle Shaun Rogers, who has 2 tackles of the opposition this year, which is one more than airport security has on him in that same period. "That sounds like an option at a massage parlor, a place much like an airport in the fact that they'll also ask 'Is that a pistol in your pocket?'"

Rogers and the Browns defense stifle the Bengals offense, and emerging fantasy force Peyton Hillis, football's "Gerry Cooney," grinds for 90 yards and a touchdown.

Browns win, 22-21.

Carolina @ New Orleans (-13½)

The Saints were a 29-yard Garrett Hartley field goal away from an overtime win over Atlanta and the outright lead in the NFC South. Unfortunately, Hartley hooked the attempt, and the Falcons won on Matt Bryant's 46-yard kick, just seconds after Bryant's first attempt was blocked, a play that was nullified by Sean Payton's timeout just beforehand.

"There's 'icing the kicker,'" Payton said, "and then there's 'icing the cake,' which is what I did by calling that timeout. Trust me, it was tough facing the team after my bonehead mistake. It felt like a scene from the movie Men Who Stare at Goats.

Now, Hartley may find himself fighting for his job unless he can quickly remedy this habit of hooking easy field goals. If he can't get the job done, I'll have no qualms about releasing him, though. And I won't feel sorry for him. Heck, this is New Orleans. A good hooker can easily find work here."

Carolina's Jimmy Clausen finds himself in an unenviable position — as a rookie quarterback on a team that the opposition dares to pass. Opponents have been loading the line of scrimmage, limiting the effectiveness of DeAngelo Hall and Jonathan Stewart, and forcing the Panthers to rely on the passing game.

"He's not even dead," said Clausen, "yet the ghost of Jake Delhomme still haunts this team. Legend has it that this apparition strikes fear into no one. And it is said that when linebackers and defensive backs look into its eyes, they can see right through him."

Saints win, 31-24.

Seattle @ St. Louis (+1½)

The 2-1 Seahawks share the NFC West lead with the Cardinals, which, in the current state of the division, is akin to kissing your sister. Seattle overcame a 247 deficit in total yards to defeat the Chargers, 27-20. On Sunday, the Seahawks face the Rams and rookie sensation Sam Bradford.

"It's tough win a game when you're out-gained like that," said Pete Carroll. "Almost as tough as it is to lose a game when you return two kickoffs for touchdowns. We tested both theories last week against the Chargers.

Now, Seahawks/Rams isn't the rivalry it used to be. Call it 'rivalry weak.' But his game could very well go a long way in determining the NFC West champ, because this division is wide-open ... to speculation as the NFL's weakest division.

To win, we'll have to stop Sam Bradford. I have a reputation for 'stopping' Heisman Trophy winners. From following the rules, that is."

The Rams, with a win and an Arizona loss in San Diego, would own a share of the division lead for the first time since kickoff in Week 1.

"The excitement is back in St. Louis," said Bradford. "So much so that even Nelly's wearing Rams gear again. Like he says, it's getting 'Hot in Herre.'"

Rams win, 29-27.

San Francisco @ Atlanta (-7)

San Francisco is one of five teams still winless this year, but in their defense, the 49ers have set themselves apart from the other four, in that no one expected them to be in this situation. Picked by many to win the NFC West, the Niners are in dead last, and are struggling to find answers on offense and defense. Just don't ask Mike Singletary about, lest you be removed from your job.

"As you know," said Singletary, "'failure to communicate' was bogging down our offense. No one can accuse me of not doing anything about it, nor can they accuse me of 'failure to ex-communicate,' because I've fired offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye, who failed in both aspects of his job title, 'offense' and 'coordinating.'

But we throw blame around better than we do the ball. Our downfield passing attack has been virtually non-existent, as evidenced by running back Frank Gore's 22 receptions, which places him in a tie for third in the entire league. Vernon Davis can't get open, and Michael Crabtree is playing like a player whose agent was a bail bondsman. It's time for some changes. It's like getting play calls to the huddle — if we don't do something 'in a hurry,' we're doomed."

After an emotional win in the Superdome, the Falcons must avoid overconfidence and concentrate fully on the 49ers, who are still a dangerous team, especially when backed into a "Coach's Corner' by an inquisitive television show host.

"We must avoid a let down," Matt Ryan said. "But we can't avoid 'The Let Down,' because 'The Let Down' is the 49ers, and they're next on our schedule.

We know the 49ers have the talent to win. They'll find the coaching soon enough."

Falcons win, 23-20.

Houston @ Oakland (+3½)

After last Sunday's 27-13 loss to the Cowboys, the 2-1 Texans are surely not "America's Team," much less "Texas' Team." But that's okay, because Houston can be "California's Team," because none of the three teams in the state seem to want the burden of that title. Between them, the Chargers, 49ers, and Raiders are 2-7.

"We won't make the mistake of taking the Raiders lightly," Gary Kubiak said. "When you challenge an Al Davis-owned team, you know you're in for a stiff test.

And it's never fun playing in the Black Hole. I should know. For nine seasons as a Bronco, I came here once a year and endured some of the most awful vitriol ever directed at human ears. And, like a dutiful, career-long backup, I promptly went to John Elway and told him what they thought of him."

The Raiders hope to erase the memory of a heartbreaking 24-23 loss in Arizona last week. In that game, Sebastian Janikowski missed three field goals, including the potential game-winner from 32 yards out as time expired.

"I could have sworn Sebastian graduated, or at least has a degree, from Florida State," said Tom Cable. "But it now seems he matriculated at Ole Miss.

Sebastian has been big for us all year, but he choked. Now, in the world of sexual deviancy, that may be more familiar to Sebastian as 'auto-erotic asphyxiation.' I'm sure he's heard of it, if not participated in it. But Sebastian is our top offensive threat, and we'll need him, for this game is likely to come down to a field goal. I've yet to decide whether we'll try kick it, though."

The Raiders rush for 175 yards, and Nnamndi Asomugha preserves the win with a late interception of Matt Schaub.

Oakland wins, 26-24.

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville (+7)

The 1-2 Jaguars are reeling, dead last in the AFC South and in dire need of a boost before it gets any worse. Is a visit from the unpredictable Colts defense just what the doctor ordered, or will Peyton Manning dissect, first on film, then on the field, a Jacksonville secondary that's 29th in the league in yards surrendered?

"I remember a magical day long ago when the Jags rushed for 375 yards on the Colts," said Jack Del Rio. "Anytime you drop a quarter-mile on a defense, it's something you'll remember forever. It was only four years ago, but it seems like an eternity, which is a phrase I'm used to hearing in relation to my coaching tenure.

Our problems extend to both sides of the ball. And dealing with that puts me in a difficult position of balancing mean-spirited criticism with sugar-coated compliments. It's like toeing the line between 'Jack the Ripper' and Jack Tripper."

Manning has been nearly perfect this year, with 1,013 yards, 9 touchdowns, and no interceptions. And he certainly likes the matchup against the Jaguars.

"In tape study," Manning said, "I've noticed a lot of confusion in the Jacksonville secondary. And that's not surprising, given that the Jaguars play a version of the 'Cover 2' defense known as the 'Cover Who?'

Tom Brady may have got big money when he signed his recent $74 million extension, but I'll put that to shame once I sign mine. There's 'Tom Brady money,' but I'm going for 'Ronnie Lott money,' which is 'nine digits.'"

Who can stop Manning, besides a playoff road game? Certainly not the Jaguars. Manning throws for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Colts earn a 31-23 win.

Washington @ Philadelphia (-7)

It's Washington's Donovan McNabb versus Philadelphia's Michael Vick in a showdown they're calling "The Battle of Eagle Quarterbacks That Are Better Than Their 2010 Week 1 Starter." Vick and the Eagles lead the NFC East, with the Giants, Cowboys, and McNabb's Redskins a game behind at 1-2.

"Maybe I was a bit hasty in anointing Kevin Kolb as the heir to the Philly quarterbacking legacy," Andy Reid said. "Frankly, I'm surprised the Reverend Al Sharpton hasn't insisted this whole situation was racially motivated. I can tell you, beyond a shadow of a doubt, I am not a racist. Some of my best quarterbacks are black.

In hindsight, I can now see that McNabb and Vick are imminently more talented than Kolb and his pedestrian skill. It's like a real-life episode of Pros vs. Joes."

McNabb will undoubtedly face a Philly crowd that will let him have it, despite his years of service and accomplishments. The atmosphere will certainly be electric, and be made more so by the countless Taser-ings of unruly Eagles fanatics.

"If those crazy Eagles fans shower me with boos," McNabb said, "I'll be very surprised, because most Philly fans don't shower. Actually, I'm expecting boos. It will be a nice bookend to my career. I was booed by Philly fans at the 1999 NFL Draft, so boos at Sunday's game will sandwich my career nicely."

Just for kicks, Mike Shanahan names Rex Grossman starter minutes before game time before coming to his senses and starting McNabb. Andy Reid takes it as a personal jab, and exacts his revenge with a trick play in which Vick hits Kolb for a two-yard touchdown pass.

Philadelphia wins, 27-19.

Arizona @ San Diego (-9)

Despite racking up 518 yards of total offense, the Chargers fell in Seattle 27-20, a result of two catastrophic special teams failures and 5 turnovers. San Diego gave up two Leon Washington kickoff return touchdowns and fell to 1-2, two games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West.

"There were obviously breakdowns in our kickoff coverage," said Norv Turner. "That's 3 touchdowns on kickoffs we've given up this year. And speaking of 'too much in return,' we were unable to broker a deal to trade Vincent Jackson, mainly because A.J. Smith refused to budge from his asking price of a second and third round pick.

Frankly, I'm surprised we were unable to broker a deal for Vincent Jackson, particularly since we don't need him. If Philip Rivers can throw for 455 yards without him, then I think we can do without him. Apparently, general manager A.J. Smith was asking too much. Ironically, so is Vincent."

Despite their 2-1 record, the Cardinals are not the Cardinals of years past, which featured a high-powered passing attack led by Kurt Warner.

"With Derek Anderson at quarterback," said Ken Whisenhunt, "our passing game lacks the downfield threat. You could say we 'long' for our quarterback of old. I think we all, our receiving corps included, are growing a little impatient with him. I hate to be 'Kurt,' but we'd be much better off with Warner."

In two tries so far this year, the Chargers have yet to beat a team from the West, AFC or NFC. As they say, the third time's the charm, unless you're the Buffalo Bills or Minnesota Vikings.

The Chargers win the coin toss, and wisely elect to receive. Then, to start the second half, Nate Kaeding kicks off sideways, directly out of bounds.

San Diego gives up no kickoff return touchdowns, and wins, 33-17.

Chicago @ NY Giants (-3)

After knocking off the 2-0 Packers, the Bears are the last of the NFC's undefeated teams and now head to New Meadowlands Stadium to face the 1-2 Giants, a team on the verge of implosion. In consecutive weeks, the Bears have knocked off the Cowboys and Packers, two teams widely accepted as Super Bowl contenders.

"I guess playing the Giants ends that streak," said Jay Cutler. "The Giants season has been defined by bickering, goofy left-handed passes, and a runaway helmet, which somehow ended up in Lawrence Taylor's possession.

We know they're down but dangerous. We just have to play our game, although I'm not sure what our game is. I do know it involves forcing a lot of penalties."

The G-Men are back to their quibbling ways after a rough start to the season, with two lopsided losses to the Colts and Titans.

"This is what's known as a 'statement' game," said Eli Manning. "Here, that normally means a loss followed by a 'statement' by a player criticizing Tom Coughlin. In most cases, that player just played a crappy game.

This time, though, our statement will be a resounding win over the Bears. I've studied much film of Chicago, and it's all very revealing, and rated 'O' for 'over.'"

Prior to the game, Coughlin leads the team in a prayer. In other words, they get a 'blessing out,' and play with the urgency of a team not wanting to go 1-3.

Giants win, 27-17.

New England @ Miami (+1)

After a 38-30 win over the Bills, it's apparent that the Patriots are living by the adage that "a good offense is the best defense." And it's true. In the 91:38 the Patriots offense has had possession of the ball, they have yet to surrender a touchdown.

"Talk about efficiency," Tom Brady said. "But our defense is a resilient bunch, and I'm sure Bill Belichick will devise a scheme to handle Miami's offensive weapons. The Patriots have a habit of finding ways to win, even in their darkest hours. But we know the 'tuck rule' can't save us again, so we can only hope for another miracle."

While Monday's game is by no means a must-win situation, a loss by the Dolphins would saddle them with home losses against their two main AFC East competitors. Against the Patriots, pressuring Tom Brady will be imperative if the Fins are to record their second AFC East win.

"Brady is willing to stand strong in the pocket," Tony Sparano said. "I admire his courage, and the length of his hair. I'm amazed that people think Brady is henpecked just because his wife likes his hair long. Now, if Brady shows up in capri pants and a tube top, then we should worry."

Brady throws for 3 touchdowns, but in the end, the sketchy Patriots defense is overcome by Miami's "Wildcat" offensive set, just another testament to the notion that Brady is "pussy-whipped."

Miami wins, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:03 PM | Comments (0)

September 29, 2010

Time For Undefeated Teams to Man Up

With the official onset of October, we're finally going to see some separation at the top of the college football power structure. Oh, we've had a few big games in September. Miami went up to Ohio State. Penn State went down to Alabama. LSU played two non-conference top 25 teams in North Carolina (Lite) and West Virginia. But really, most of the top teams have feasted on sub-BCS has-beens getting paid to have their asses handed to them (James Madison excepted, of course).

But no more. October is time for teams with big stadiums and bigger egos to prove on the field that they should be taken seriously. No more Austin Peay (Wisconsin). No more San Jose State (Alabama, Wisconsin, Utah). And no more Portland State (Oregon). It's time to put on your big boy pants and get to work.

There are 24 undefeated teams left in FBS, 20 of whom are playing this week, and half of those in games against another undefeated team. Week 5 will make a few statements and break a few dreams.

Here are the main games to keep an eye on. (And since I'm a degenerate jackass who thinks he knows what he's talking about, I'm putting my fictional money where my fictional mouth is.)

(Suck on that, hypocrisy.)

Stanford (4-0) @ Oregon (4-0)

You know the Pac-10 is having a great season when Florida/Alabama isn't the biggest game of two undefeated teams on a given weekend. But this game will go a long way toward establishing supremacy in the Pac-10 (with all due respect to Arizona), and very well could play a prominent role in determining the eventual BCS champion (if Oregon wins). Oregon had been crushing everybody until that weird game against Arizona State that saw the Ducks fall behind 24-14 before turning it on. Stanford, meanwhile, is doing a bang-up job in Jim Harbaugh's extended NFL interview, easily taking out all four of their opponents, including Notre Dame in South Bend last week.

The Cardinal have the definite advantage at quarterback with Andrew Luck, while the Ducks are dominant on the ground with LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner (if they would give him the damn ball). Both defenses have been equally as effective. The game is at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, so you have to give the Ducks the advantage, but I'm not willing to give them seven points. Stanford for the cover.

Florida (4-0) @ Alabama (4-0)

This might be a namesake game between the Urban Meyers and the Nick Sabans, and it will get its due unreasonable hype, but there's no questioning who is the better team this year. Roll Tide at -7 (and hard).

Oklahoma State (3-0) and Texas A&M (3-0)

These two kick the weekend off this Thursday night in Stillwater. By scoring a combined 171 points in beating Washington State, Troy, and Tulsa, Oklahoma State proved they have the offensive chops. But in giving up an average of nearly 28 points per game, including 38 to Troy, the defense has yet to prove it's going to be able to stop anybody when it counts.

Luckily for the Cowboys, their first test comes against a Texas A&M squad that has built its undefeated 3-0 record on the backs of Stephen F. Austin, Louisiana Tech, and Florida International, who actually held a 20-7 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Of particular concern is the performance of senior quarterback Jerrod Johnson, who completed just 11-of-31 pass attempts against FIU, with 4 interceptions to go along with 1 touchdown. He was sacked 6 times, not exactly what you're looking for out of your offense against a winless Golden Panthers squad coming off a 3-9 season and picked to finish sixth in the Sun Belt.

Vegas clearly doesn't know what to do with either team, giving State the home-field three point edge. In the end, the Cowboys' advantage on offense overcomes the Aggies' advantage on defense and Oklahoma State keeps going on what could be a 6-0 start heading into their Oct. 23 home tilt against Nebraska.

Wisconsin (4-0) @ Michigan State (4-0)

I'd like to get excited about this matchup between two top-25 teams, but it's hard when you've seen so many Big Ten teams start off 4-0 or 5-0, feeding on MAC chum before knocking each other off and leaving Ohio State and the only legit national contender. Wisconsin barely survived Arizona State at home. Michigan State's biggest pass play of the season was on a fake punt. In the end, the home team has won this game each time it's been played since 2002, so go Spartans (+1). But really, unless you actually went to these one of these schools or happen to be 70-years-old, you should probably switch over to Texas/Oklahoma or even Michigan/Indiana. Or maybe take a walk or read a book or something.

Michigan (4-0) @ Indiana (3-0)

Everybody knows about Michigan's Denard Robinson. He's incredible. He's awesome. He's from Deerfield Beach, FL (great underrated vacation spot). And the way he plays, it's a good thing backups Devin Gardner and Tate Forcier knocked the rust off during the Wolverines' 65-21 pasting of Bowling Green. But here are two other things we know about Robinson (you know, other than the fact he's incredible and awesome): 1) He won't be an NFL starting quarterback (hello Josh Cribbs); and 2) He can't play defense.

Michigan gave up 535 yards to Notre Dame and 439 to UMass. And now they get a very underrated IU offense led by senior quarterback Ben Chappell, who has 9 touchdowns (to five different receivers) and no interceptions in leading the Hoosiers to their second straight 3-0 start.

Last year, Indiana's quest to go 4-0 was crushed by Michigan 36-33 at the Big House. With the rematch at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington, watch for the shocker and ... ah, I can't do it. Michigan wins, but I'm taking IU to cover the 11.5.

A few other undefeateds to keep an eye on:

Oklahoma (4-0) — With Texas' brick laying at home against UCLA last weekend, the Red River Rivalry is relegated to afterthought. But this is still another chance for the Sooners to prove they deserve respect on a national scale, and they better not sleep on a Texas team that has the talent to pull the upset. Assuming Bob Stoops has his team ready to play, it's a safe bet to lay the modest four for Oklahoma.

Northwestern (4-0) — Playing at Minnesota is technically a conference road test, though you would have to use air quotes around the words test. Hell, you'd be hard-pressed to call the Gophers a legit FBS team at this point, with home losses to South Dakota and Northern Illinois in their last three (sandwiched around a "respectable" loss against USC). But still, if the Wildcats are going to give all their annoyingly nerdy sports writer alumni (Mike Greenberg) reason to brag, they have to be able to take care of a crappy Minnesota team on the road. Vegas is only laying five for Northwestern, which seems like pretty easy money. Go purple.

North Carolina State (4-0) — After the Wolfpack's dismantling of Georgia Tech in Atlanta last weekend, you would think they would get some respect heading home to face an up-and-down Virginia Tech squad that hasn't exactly lit the world on fire offensively. But Vegas doesn't appear to be buying in to State just yet, installing Tech as a 3.5-point favorite on the road. They're basically begging you to take State. And if there's one thing all gamblers know (or think they know; or I think they think they know), it's that when Vegas begs you to do something, do the opposite. So though every instinct tells me to take the Wolfpack, I'm going with rules over gut and taking Tech -3.5.

Posted by Joshua Duffy at 7:36 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 28

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin finished ninth at Dover, well ahead of new rival Kevin Harvick, in 15th, and Harvick's Richard Childress Racing sidekick Clint Bowyer, in 25th. In a controversy-filled weekend, Hamlin criticized Bowyer on Friday, then was tormented by Harvick in Saturday's practice. Hamlin maintained the lead in the Sprint Cup point standings, and holds a 45 point edge over Harvick.

"I stand by my assertion that RCR got what was coming to them," Hamlin said. "It seems the Hamburger Helper 'hand' was caught in the cookie jar. I guess NASCAR officials (four)-fingered the No. 33 car for a violation."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson dominated at Dover, leading 191 of 400 laps to take victory in the AAA 400 and authoritatively re-establish himself as the Sprint Cup favorite. Johnson started from the pole and took over midway through the race, and jumped four places in the point standings. He trails Denny Hamlin by 92 points.

"The 'Drive For Five' is alive," Johnson said. "And well. This is the start of something big for us, and that's bad news for any other driver aspiring to be the champ. The forecast calls for 'reigning,' on their parades."

"Nothing says 'I'm back' like a convincing win, and nothing portends more good things for me like a budding feud between the two teams that likely employ the driver that could potentially unseat me."

3. Kyle Busch — Busch survived a brush with the wall at Dover to post a sixth in the AAA 400, giving Joe Gibbs Racing three cars in the top 10. Busch is now third in the Sprint Cup point standings, and trails teammate Denny Hamlin by 62 points.

"That's the best I can do in defense of Hamlin's run-ins with Richard Childress Racing," said Busch. "Hamlin may not like what Kevin Harvick did to him, but I bet he'd love to have a teammate that would do that for him."

4. Kevin Harvick — One day after tangling with Denny Hamlin in practice, Harvick finished 15th at Dover, a result that certainly supported the contention that RCR is not cheating. However, Harvick gained a spot in the point standings, and now trails Hamlin by 45.

"I don't take kindly to drivers criticizing the actions of Richard Childress Racing," Harvick said. "And I don't waste time letting them know how I feel. 'RCR' can also stand for 'Retribution Comes Rapidly.'"

5. Carl Edwards — On one of his favorite tracks, Edwards posted a fifth at Dover's "Monster Mile," scoring his seventh top-five of the year and trimming 22 points from points leader Denny Hamlin's lead. Edwards is in sixth, 73 points back.

"I support Denny Hamlin speaking his mind," Edwards said, "and I support Kevin Harvick defending his teammate. In Harvick's case, I'm not sure I would do the same for one of my Roush Fenway teammates. Heck, I have enough trouble defending my honor, much less someone else's.

6. Kurt Busch — Busch finished fourth in the AAA 400 at Dover, his ninth top-five of the year, and closed to within 59 points of Sprint Cup points leader Denny Hamlin.

"All this controversy," Busch said, "and I'm not involved in it. You could say 'something is wrong with this picture,' which is exactly what I said to my cosmetic surgeon after handing him my mug shot. Then, he proceeded to downsize my ears, and trust me, he took more than .006 of an inch off of them."

7. Jeff Burton — Burton raced to his second runner-up finish of the year, chasing Jimmie Johnson to the line at Dover to lead the Richard Childress Racing contingent.

"In light of Clint Bowyer's plight," Burton said, "I think it was important to finish well at Dover, and we did that. The No. 33 team says they did nothing wrong, and I believe them. NASCAR claims Bowyer's car was .006 beyond the tolerance. That's an incredibly low amount of tolerance. Who has tolerance even lower than NASCAR's? Kevin Harvick, that's who. He'll 'go off' at the drop of a hat, or the drop of the green flag for practice."

8. Jeff Gordon — Gordon saw a potential top-five run derailed by a slow pit stop during the final caution at Dover and finished 11th. He hasn't posted a top-five finish since Chicagoland, and is still winless in his last 57 races. Gordon is eighth in the point standings, 83 behind Denny Hamlin.

"My four Sprint Cup championships are a testament to being great," Gordon said. "But right now, I'd happily settle for being merely good."

9. Clint Bowyer — Just days after a rules violation dropped him from second to 12th in the points standings, Bowyer finished a disappointing 25th at Dover. He is now 235 points behind Denny Hamlin, who vocally supported NASCAR's decision to penalize Bowyer.

"I have to thank my teammates for their support," Bowyer said, "especially Kevin Harvick. Kevin took it upon himself to distribute his own brand of justice when he buzzed Hamlin in practice. As you can see, Kevin's desire to 'play God' is matched by my desire to 'play dumb.'"

10. Tony Stewart — Stewart finished 21st in the AAA 400, doomed early in the race when a pit road speeding penalty knocked him two laps down. He now sits in 10th place in the Sprint Cup point standings, 162 behind Denny Hamlin.

"I haven't failed many inspections," Stewart said, "but I have failed several physicals. Of course, none of my teammates ever felt compelled to go after other drivers that may have spoken negatively about my physical fitness."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:47 AM | Comments (0)

September 28, 2010

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Kudos to Howie Long for thoughtfully expressing his opinion of an 18-game schedule. The owners and television networks love this idea: it makes the rich richer. Everyone else loses. Long admits that the longer schedule is probably inevitable, but he has some sensible ideas for attempting to moderate the consequences. Honestly, though, fans should be on the rooftops to tell the NFL they don't want this.

* At halftime this week, Drew Brees was 10-of-12 with 2 interceptions. His first 18 passes were all caught: 16 by Saints receivers, and 2 by Atlanta defenders.

* Enrique Iglesias' painful halftime performance Sunday night reminded us all why he's not famous any more. Note to the networks: please don't air that kind of stuff.

* Tony Romo leads the NFL in pass attempts, but he has the fewest sacks (1) of any QB who has started all three games.

* Maybe I'm the only one, but I hate Hail Marys. Especially when a quarterback on my fantasy team is throwing them. It's like an automatic interception.

***

Do you remember Eddie George? Heisman Trophy winner at Ohio State, first-round draft pick, rushed for about 1,300 yards each of his first four seasons? George was a great running back, and Jeff Fisher ruined his career. In 2000, George carried the ball 403 times (fifth-most in history). The next year, he averaged 3.0 yards per carry, never again got as high as 3.5, retired at age 31. Jason Lisk found evidence to suggest that a running back's risk of injury begins to rise dramatically as his number of carries in a game goes over 25 or so. Think of it like a pitch count in baseball. A guy can throw 100 pitches two starts in a row and he'll usually be fine. Have him throw 70 one game and 130 the next, though, and his injury risk goes way up. Lisk's research suggests the same for running backs.

In 2004, Eddie George eight times met the criteria for what Lisk labelled "Increased Risk Games." Thirty times in NFL history, an RB has amassed eight or more Increased Risk Games (IRG) in a season. With a few notable exceptions, this reads like a list of players having their last great season. The only players with 10 IRG in a season are Jamal Anderson in 1998, Larry Johnson in 2006, and Emmitt Smith in 1994. Anderson and LJ suffered devastating injuries early the next season, effectively ending their careers, although both tried to hang on. Emmitt had probably the best year of his career in '95, but if two out of three ruined their careers, that's not a good track record.

Eddie George, whose heavy workload probably contributed to an early decline, played for Jeff Fisher in Tennessee. So does the best running back in the NFL today. Chris Johnson had seven IRG in 2009, all of them after the bye. Already this season, he has two more: 27 carries in the Week 1 blowout of Oakland (38-13), and 32 in the rout of New York this week (29-10). Why on earth are you still feeding the ball to Johnson when you're up by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter? Would you have your ace pitcher on the mound in the ninth inning, pushing 130 pitches when you're up 7-2 or something? Fisher is doing the same thing to CJ2K that he did to Eddie George: shortening his career.

I love watching Chris Johnson play. I've said this before, but he reminds me of O.J. Simpson: absolutely sensational runner, someone I hope to watch for years. Somebody in the Tennessee Titan organization — a coach, GM, Bud Adams, someone — has to make clear that Johnson's workload needs to be monitored more closely. Sandy Koufax is a legend, but he's also a cautionary "what might have been" tale. Someone in Tennessee needs to make sure that we're watching Johnson for a long, long time.

On to the Week 3 power rankings. Brackets show last week's rank.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers [3] — Not only are they 3-0, everyone they've beaten is 2-1. Their Week 1 opponent, the Falcons, just knocked off the defending champs in New Orleans. Their Week 2 victim, Tennessee, has won its other two games by an average of 22 points. In Week 3, the Steelers annihilated the previously undefeated Buccaneers. Those are three pretty impressive victories, and Pittsburgh leads the NFL in point differential (+39). I'm not sure why everyone seems so surprised that Charlie Batch had a decent game. This guy has been a solid backup for years. Since joining the Steelers, he has 11 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions, a better ratio (1.83 TDs per INT) than Ben Roethlisberger (127-81, 1.57 TDs per INT).

2. Indianapolis Colts [2] — For most of the past decade, I've taken Peyton Manning in the first or second round of my fantasy draft. A few years back, we switched to a keeper format, which makes it that much more convenient to be certain he's on my roster. I haven't finished worse than second since 2002, and I lead my league so far this season. Thanks, Peyton. Top 10 most influential (not necessarily best) QBs in NFL history: Sammy Baugh, Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, John Unitas, Sid Luckman, Dan Marino, Dan Fouts, Benny Friedman, Warren Moon, Norm Van Brocklin. That's with regards to offensive strategy and on-field play, so please don't tell me I forgot about Joe Namath. He's a hugely important figure in pro football history, but Manning has changed the way QBs and defenses play the game.

3. Tennessee Titans [4] — How bad a season is Vince Young having? Well, he's eighth in the NFL in passer rating (96.9), ahead of Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, and Aaron Rodgers. And of course, Young is also one of the best running QBs in the NFL. Now go ahead and name Young's best receiver. Take your time. He's not Steve McNair yet, but Young is doing just fine. Pittsburgh's defense can make anyone look bad. Matt Ryan (94.3 passer rating), Young (96.9), and Josh Freeman (84.6) have a collective rating of 60.0 against that defense. Sometimes it feels like people are looking for an excuse to make Young look bad. Something to keep an eye on: Chris Johnson is averaging under 4.0 yards per rush attempt.

4. Baltimore Ravens [7] — Joe Flacco, following a very disappointing start to the season, blew up against Cleveland this week, mostly by throwing to Anquan Boldin (142 yards, 3 TD). The defense, however, turned in an uncharacteristically poor performance, allowing a 103.0 passer rating to Seneca Wallace and getting absolutely owned by Peyton Hillis (144 yds, 6.4 avg, TD). They need to start playing well offensively and defensively in the same game if they want to make a serious playoff run this season. The Ravens are tied with Carolina for worst turnover differential (-6) in the NFL.

5. New York Jets [10] — Offense has looked great since a dismal Week 1. Not just "Jets great," even, but real great. In a battle of the two best Wildcat teams in the NFL, Rex Ryan's motley outfit overcame nine penalties and the continuing struggles of rookie CB Kyle Wilson to edge the Dolphins and move atop the AFC East (via tiebreaker wins over Miami and New England). It seems unlikely that New York's offense can consistently play the way it did in Miami, so the defense can't afford to consistently play the way it did in Miami, either. This is a visibly different team without Darrelle Revis.

6. Green Bay Packers [5] — Beat themselves, gave away the game with mistakes. The Packers committed an incredible 18 penalties for 152 yards, including 7 pre-snap penalties, and others that nullified a touchdown and two interceptions. The Bears don't have 152 penalty yards all season. No matter what the scoreboard says, Green Bay absolutely was the better, more impressive team. Aaron Rodgers looked sensational, Manning-esque (the good one, not Eli). His accuracy, decision-making, footwork, quick release, and scrambling are all top-notch, and he's gotten great about throwing the ball away to avoid sacks. Mike McCarthy is the worst coach in the NFL about replay challenges. He routinely squanders important timeouts on unwinnable challenges.

7. Atlanta Falcons [14] — Controlled time of possession for 45:50 against New Orleans, an 18½-minute advantage. The offense has played really well the last two weeks. Ryan is on fire, and it doesn't seem to matter who carries the ball. A week after he had to leave the game because of injury, Michael Turner got 30 carries this weekend. I just don't understand how you take those kinds of chances with the health of someone who's important to your team. Turner, by the way, had eight Increased Risk Games in 2008. The next year, he missed a third of the season with injury.

8. New Orleans Saints [1] — Should they have tried a 29-yard field goal on first down? My initial reaction to this was, "No! Of course not." Why not run a few low-risk plays and see if you can score a touchdown? But what's the chance an NFL kicker misses a 29-yarder? In 2009, they were 96.9% from under 30 yards. We can assume that might be a little lower right at the edge, so let's say 95%. Now, what's the chance of a turnover or serious injury if you keep running plays? What if there's a sack or penalty that pushes you out of field goal range? I still think kicking on first down was the wrong call, but it's not crazy. Garrett Hartley was a hero in the playoffs last season, but the Saints need to look seriously at other kickers who are available.

9. Miami Dolphins [6] — They had no plan for dealing with Dustin Keller and were unable to generate consistent pressure on Mark Sanchez. Make no mistake, this loss falls on the defense. I also blame the coaching staff. Partly that's just in general, but I also believe the decision-making was too conservative. In the third quarter, down 21-17, Miami had fourth-and-goal on the 2-yard line. Tony Sparano called for the field goal unit, and Dan Carpenter made a chip-shot 20-yard field goal: 21-20. To me, that's the wrong call. If you'll forgive me the second baseball analogy of this column, it's like calling for a sacrifice bunt when you're down four runs and have a slugger at the plate. Two field goals are worth less than one touchdown (assuming you can handle the extra point). What are your chances of making the two yards? If they're any higher than 40% — and they are — you should be going for the end zone in that situation.

10. Cincinnati Bengals [12] — Honestly, the offense is in trouble. Carson Palmer's passer rating in Week 3 was 53.3. Palmer's passer rating in Week 2: 60.1. In the first half of Week 1, when the game was still meaningful: 48.1. That's a combined 54.9, lower than Trent Edwards and Jason Campbell. Even if you include the big second half against New England and the Hail Mary from that game, his rating is 71.3, placing him between Sam Bradford and Bruce Gradkowski. And this is throwing to a receiving corps that's supposed to be pretty good. The Bengals have an easy schedule until the bye, and should get to 4-1, but at some point, they need to get the passing game on track.

11. Dallas Cowboys [16] — Big passing numbers against Houston, but they've been doing that every week. What's new? Four sacks, 2 interceptions, and a fumble recovery. DeMarcus Ware had his first high-impact game of the season, and this team depends on the pressure he creates. The Cowboys also used a refreshingly balanced offensive gameplan on Sunday, running 26 times and passing 30. Jason Witten had his best game of the season.

12. Houston Texans [8] — Arian Foster leads the NFL in rushing. His lead is slowly diminishing since that monster Week 1, but he added 106 yards, with a 6.2 average, against the Cowboys on Sunday. The passing game, oddly enough, may be a bigger question mark. Matt Schaub posted ridiculous numbers against Washington, but his passer rating was below 80 in the other two games. Pass defense, however, continues to be the primary concern for Houston. Opponents have a collective 116.8 passer rating against the Texans this season. Mario Williams had no tackles or assists in Week 3.

13. Kansas City Chiefs [17] — Laid a huge beatdown on the 49ers. Tamba Hali had three sacks, and Brandon Flowers intercepted a pass for the second week in a row. Flowers is becoming a downright star, one of the best CBs in the league. Matt Cassel finally had a good game, and the running tandem of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones continued to be productive. In my preseason power rankings, I picked KC to go 7-9, a team that "could really surprise people" but had "too many ifs". I take back the second part: 10-6, playoffs. They're not a great team yet, but they're a good one, and the schedule is forgiving.

14. Philadelphia Eagles [20] — Is this the best 2½-game stretch of Michael Vick's career? His passer rating right now is 110.2, topping his career high of 81.6, set in 2002. He has 7 TDs and no interceptions; he's never done that in any other stretch of his NFL career. Of course, he's never had DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin catching his passes, either. I know a lot of people have the Eagles in the top 10, but this is a team that lost at home pretty easily against Green Bay and barely beat the Lions. Yeah, they pounded Jacksonville, but Jacksonville is terrible. If they go into their bye week 5-2, then I'll be impressed. The toughest part of their schedule is in November and December.

15. New England Patriots [11] — Great passing offense, enormous problems on defense. The Bills scored a combined 17 points in their first two games, then put up 30 against New England. They gained a combined 352 yards in the first two weeks, compared to 374 against the Pats. New England reminds me of the Colts in 2003 and '04, if the Colts didn't have Edgerrin James and their best offensive lineman was holding out. Tom Brady and his receivers can keep the Patriots in a game against almost anyone, but that defense, combined with an inability to reliably hold leads or control the clock, can lose them a game against just about anyone.

16. Minnesota Vikings [13] — Even against the hapless Lions, they couldn't get the passing game going. Remember '07 and '08, when the offense was 90% Adrian Peterson and 10% Tarvaris Jackson or Gus Frerotte or whoever? That's the way 2010 is shaping up. All-pro DE Jared Allen, who has at least 14.5 sacks in each of the last three seasons — basically one a game — has only 1 so far this year. The Vikings were called for 11 penalties (100 yards, 5 first downs) against Detroit, though some of those were phantom calls by a flag-happy officiating crew. It's still a lot of penalties.

17. Chicago Bears [18] — They didn't win on Monday night; the Packers lost. You wouldn't know it from the MNF broadcast, but the Bears have more than three players, and not all of them are named Jay Cutler, Julius Peppers, or Brian Urlacher. Everything was about the stars. Peppers had a great game, but he repeatedly got credit for plays he didn't make and penalties he didn't draw, while the announcers ignored guys like Matt Toeaina when they did make plays. Credit and blame going to the wrong people was a consistent theme in the broadcast. In 2006-07, Devin Hester was the most dangerous returner in the NFL. Since then, he's averaged 7.5 yards per punt return, compared to Josh Cribbs (10.1), DeSean Jackson (10.8), Wes Welker (11.3), Clifton Smith (11.8), and Domenik Hixon (12.1). Since the start of the 2008 season, Hester actually ranks outside the top 30 in punt return average. Pretty obviously, he is no longer a great punt returner.

But Jon Gruden is living in the past. When Mike Tirico pointed out, early in the night, that Hester had lost his touch, Gruden either misunderstood or ignored Tirico and jubilantly exclaimed how important it was not to kick to Hester. Later, Gruden called him "the most dangerous return guy in football," which is ludicrous. That's like calling Desmond Howard the most dangerous return guy in football. It used to be to true, but it obviously no longer is. When Hester returned a Tim Masthay punt for a touchdown, Ron Jaworski joined in with Gruden and Tirico admitted he was wrong.

There's just one problem: Tirico was right. The play was Masthay's fault; what he did is called "over-kicking the coverage," putting the returner in the open field with room to work. A better punter shortens that up 10 yards without sacrificing hangtime and sets up a fair catch or a highlight-reel tackle as soon as the ball arrives. This is like gushing over a receiver who made a wide-open catch when no one covered him. Gruden still thinks teams should kick away from Billy "White Shoes" Johnson, and he's still wrong about Hester. Masthay, incidentally, was terrible all game. The Packers should find a new punter before Week 4.

18. San Diego Chargers [9] — How much do they miss Kassim Osgood? After poor return coverage help cost them a close opening-week loss against Kansas City, a pair of return TDs by Leon Washington sunk them in Week 3. Osgood, who made three Pro Bowls as a special teams ace, left for Jacksonville in free agency. The Chargers also beat themselves with five turnovers, and their clock management at the end of the game this week didn't help. For reasons I still can't fathom, San Diego opted to use its final timeout after the two-minute warning instead of before it, costing themselves 10 seconds. Those lost 10 seconds later forced Philip Rivers to spike the ball and lose a crucial down. Ron Winter's officiating crew didn't help, effectively forcing San Diego into a critical delay of game penalty because they were conferring over a call while the playclock ran down.

19. Seattle Seahawks [26] — In Week 1, they laid a beating on the 49ers. In Week 2, they got beaten down themselves. In Week 3, they upset the Chargers. I don't know what to make of this up-and-down team, except this: that's a recipe for going about .500, if your schedule stays easy. That might be enough to win the NFC West, but if this team wants to seriously go anywhere, it needs to establish a ground game and get more consistent play from Matt Hasselbeck (4 TD, 5 INT, 75.4 rating). I don't understand why Leon Washington, an obvious game-changer, doesn't get more touches on offense.

20. Washington Redskins [15] — Last-ranked defense in the NFL. I blame Jim Haslett; the team ranked 10th in 2009. Part of the drop is because the team's gambling more now, emphasizing turnovers and big plays. That's fine, but there's got to be some integrity on the other plays, too. There was a terrific stand at the end of the first half, when the Rams had first-and-goal at the 1 and didn't score. But the secondary is just getting destroyed. The corners aren't great, but the real problem is that the linebackers and safeties are no good in coverage, and there's not a consistent pass rush. The team has lost 11 of it last 12 road games, and the offense went 1/10 on third down this weekend.

21. New York Giants [19] — Remember when the Giants were a running team? In 2007, when they won the Super Bowl, they were fourth in the NFL in rushing yards. The next season, when they went 13-3, they led the league. So far this season, they're 15th, middle of the pack. Eli Manning dropped back to pass 50 times against the Titans. That's cuckoo. The game was close until the fourth quarter, so it's not like the Giants had to pass. They actually outgained Tennessee by 200 yards, but gave away the game with 3 turnovers, 11 penalties, and their usual horrific play in the red zone. The Giants have allowed 85 points this season, third-worst in the league.

22. Arizona Cardinals [22] — Derek Anderson is 24th in the NFL in passer rating (67.6), and Larry Fitzgerald is tied for 48th in receiving yards. The Cardinals won this weekend because of luck, special teams, and lucky special teams. I mention LaRod Stephens-Howling every week, and it's probably becoming tiresome for regular readers, but his 102-yard kickoff return TD, the longest of the 2010 season, was critical to Arizona's victory. He's a special player.

23. Denver Broncos [23] — Perrish Cox, filling in for an injured Andre' Goodman, got absolutely picked apart on Sunday. Peyton Manning is ruthless about identifying a weak DB, and targeting him over and over. The Broncos rank second in the NFL in yards per game (417) and 14th in points per game (20.3). There are multiple reasons for that discrepancy, including their red zone offense against Indianapolis. But I would also suggest that the offensive play-calling is part of the reason. Denver is averaging 43.3 dropbacks per game, and Kyle Orton is on pace to throw 667 passes, which would be the second-most in history (Drew Bledsoe, 691 in 1994). Look, Orton is a decent QB, but he ain't Manning. You don't want this guy throwing 40 times a game.

24. San Francisco 49ers [21] — Fired offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye, but let's be realistic: they're could replace him with the ghost of Bill Walsh, and they probably still wouldn't make playoffs this year. The biggest problems are a defense performing far below expectations (most points allowed), and the unending inconsistency of quarterback Alex Smith. The 49ers have the worst point differential (-49) in the league and could easily rank lower than this.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [24] — With a Week 4 bye, they have plenty of time to mull over what went wrong against the Steelers. Fourth-year safety Tanard Jackson, who was suspended for the first four games of last season, has been suspended for the remainder of this season. He's a talented player, but you have to wonder now if Jackson really has a future as a professional athlete.

26. Detroit Lions [27] — Playing better, but still losing. Both the Lions and Vikings were plagued by Ed Hochuli's officiating crew, which made a number of questionable calls this weekend. Detroit's clock management was poor at the end of both halves. With 0:14 left in the second quarter, the Lions had second down at Minnesota's 15-yard line, with the clock running and one timeout remaining. They let the clock run all the way down to :03 and kicked a field goal. Why not call the timeout right away and take a couple shots at the end zone first? Is an interception really more likely than a touchdown? In the fourth quarter, down a couple touchdowns but with two timeouts and the ball, there was simply no urgency to the offense, no apparent awareness that the clock was running out on their chance to upset a division rival. Come on, Detroit, at least look like you're trying hard to win.

27. St. Louis Rams [32] — The Rams beat Washington. Washington beat Dallas. The Cowboys beat Houston, and Houston beat Indianapolis. Therefore, the Rams are better than the Colts. Right? Right? St. Louis scored 30 points in Week 3, the most of the Steve Spagnuolo era (23 against New Orleans last year).

28. Cleveland Browns [28] — Off to an 0-3 start, but they're noticeably improved from last season. The Browns have lost by 3, 2, and 7, to opponents with a combined record of 7-2. Most encouragingly, the offense is decent. It's probably still below average, but it's no longer among the very worst. Hillis has proven he deserves a consistent workload, even when everyone's healthy, and Seneca Wallace should probably keep the QB job over Jake Delhomme.

29. Oakland Raiders [31] — Sebastian Janikowski missed three field goals this weekend, including a 32-yard chip shot at the last second, and the Raiders lost by one. The misses included a 58-yard prayer, which you don't blame him for, but the other two were kicks you expect to make. Janikowski also connected on two short field goals and a 54-yarder that gave Oakland the lead. He's a good kicker who blew one at the wrong time.

30. Buffalo Bills [30] — Benched and released Trent Edwards, who won the QB job in training camp. I have extremely little faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but Edwards earned the derisive nickname Captain Checkdown, and I suspect he ultimately lost the faith of his teammates and coaches.

31. Jacksonville Jaguars [25] — Lost by 25 for the second week in a row. They rank 30th in offense and 29th in defense. The Jags had 54 net passing yards this weekend.

32. Carolina Panthers [29] — Thirty-three quarterbacks have enough passes to qualify for the NFL's efficiency stats. Of those 33, new starter Jimmy Clausen ranks 32nd in passer rating. The only player below him is former starter Matt Moore. Carolina ranks last in the NFL in scoring.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 3:03 PM | Comments (8)

The Best is the Best of the Worst Cases

As Jim Furyk hit his bunker shot from short and right of the pin at East Lake's closing hole, he was wishing that the spin he imparted with his explosion shot would catch the wet putting surface and leave him an easy putt for $11.35 million. When it caught just 30 inches away from the hole, a collective sigh of relief was breathed by Furyk, his self-named team, fans, and the people at the PGA Tour.

You see, at multiple stages during Sunday's final round of the Tour Championship, the PGA Tour was bracing for any of multiple nightmare scenarios for their coupled trophies.

At one point on Sunday, it was plausible that one of two players — neither of which who had won a PGA Tour event in 2010 — could win the FedExCup. In the case of Luke Donald, he could take the FedExCup with a win. Even scarier, Ryder Cup snub Paul Casey could have won the FedExCup if the right player won and he finished alone in second place. What's the opposite of a Pyrrhic victory again? A Casey conquest?

Matt Kuchar, the man who entered the final event at the top of the FedExCup standings and most hurt by its drama-infusing reset, played horribly in his collegiate home this week. With no chance to win the tournament on Sunday, no one told Kuchar he still had a chance to win the FedExCup. If he finished better than solo 25th and Nick Watney won the Tour Championship, he could have won the hardware and the life-changing seven figure bonus.

Confused? Don't be. The points system isn't only complicated for fans. It's so complicated for the players that they didn't even play to the points. The suggestion of such strategery generated a snicker from Matt Kuchar, so downtrodden by the lousy effort during the first three days that it was nearly impossible for him to muster hope that a pitiful close to the playoffs could hand him the bounty it offered.

In the end, Jim Furyk winning the Tour Championship and the FedExCup was the best possible scenario for the Tour and its playoff concept. For one thing, Furyk actually won a tournament this year. In fact, he won two, which was tied for the PGA Tour lead in this most bizarre of years. The third win handed Furyk the lead for the year on these shores and tied him for most wins on the two major men's tours on the planet. Effectively, the third win differentiated Furyk from the other contenders for Player of the Year. The reward of offseason hardware will cap off Furyk's most accomplished season in his long career.

Jim may even be able to propel himself into the World Golf Hall of Fame — right next to President George HW Bush — on the back of this win. Sure, the 2003 U.S. Open was great, but this FedExCup, that locked it up.

Even so, the FedExCup champion for 2010 becomes the second guy who didn't play in all four series events to take the title. In 2007, Tiger Woods defiantly avoided the Barclays at Westchester because he hates the course. No matter, though. Woods won the third and fourth events in the playoffs to claim his $10 million annuity. Knowing what happened in the last ten months, that's got to be sweet money to have in the pension account.

Vijay Singh may have played all four events in winning the FedExCup in 2008, but he only had to participate in three. Singh merely had to finish the Tour Championship to claim the trophy in a Woods-less playoffs.

After a thrilling finish with several deserving players in the mix at the end for the last playoff event and all of its marbles, the same scenario developed in 2010. The difference this time is that the among the handful of players who had a realistic chance on Sunday afternoon to take it all down, only one really deserved it. Fortunately, he won.

(That's not to say anything of contesting a golf tournament which decided nearly $43 million in payouts was done so in conditions after which normally the Red Cross pays out that kind of cash. A logistical nightmare was avoided though hopefully this will quiet the minority of Tour whiners who need a week off out of four tournaments in succession.)

The right guy won, though, and that's great. But we walk away from the 2010 FedExCup thinking that there has to be a better way. Maybe it is cumulative par over four events — 288 holes for $10 million — as suggested by SI's Gary Van Sickle. Perhaps as I and other have advocated, it is a series of simple to understand cuts that lead to a single tournament shootout for all the money. Or the points could stay, but keep the shootout. Then there are different forms to the shootout — straight medal play, modified Stableford, the LPGA's innovative (and currently retired) playoff event, match play, match of cards.

The possibilities are endless. None would probably be perfect. So let me muddy the water even further with one more master plan for the FedExCup.

First, 120 cannot start the playoffs. It needs to be 90 — or 70 — enough to have the full field play four rounds and it not be a logistical nightmare. Entering the first playoff event, points are not reset. The points for the first event are only slightly more than a major. Instead of 500, 550, or 600 for an event, make it 800 or a 1,000 points. The players that are then in the top 60 move onto the next event, which gives away 1200 or 1500 points for first. Then cut to 40. Have a third event with points more valuable than the other two, and cut down the thirty.

The point is to make each playoff event more valuable than the one before it. The drama seems more natural. It placates critics who feel the points system is an insult to the majors and a sure display of PGA Tour hubris. Most importantly, it increases the stakes to every round of the playoffs.

Playoff series, though, are all a setup for the end. Athletes get to the finale, the title game moment in order to have an equal chance to become champion. The beauty of most playoffs — at least this nation's most successful — is the one-game scenario.

The PGA Tour has repeatedly said it supports the tournament within a tournament, though. So here's my compromise: be like the ladies used to be (and should be again) and play the Tour Championship with the format behind the old ADT Championship. Play 36 qualifying holes, cut the field to 16. Another 18 and another cut to eight. Then wipe the slate for a single round for all of the money. If everyone complains, make it cumulative score for the top eight. It will probably be close anyhow.

Sure, it might sound unfair, but playoffs aren't supposed to be fair. They're not even supposed to identify the best player. Repeatedly for four years now, critics have mistakenly confused the playoff format with an attempt to identify the best player. That's the USGA's goal — not the PGA Tour's. They want ratings. They want ROI. They want eyeballs. One round for $10+ million will do that.

Even better? There's no way any network needs to tape delay a final round competed among eight players.

Then again, since the right guy won this time, the likelihood that the right way will manifest itself next year is unlikely.

Posted by Ryan Ballengee at 12:20 PM | Comments (0)

September 27, 2010

Tide Roll On, Barely

Through two and a half quarters on Saturday, Arkansas threw everything it had at Alabama. With the exception of a few plays, all the punches the Hogs threw in that time were their best. Yet, the final boost from Alabama was so good, and so brilliantly typical of the Crimson Tide of the last two and a half seasons, that a neutral could have felt foolish for even thinking that Alabama could lose.

The way Alabama came back involved a script that we've seen before from Alabama. After being down 20-7 in that third quarter, the Tide relied most prominently on the play of Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, who ran for 157 yards. But the unsung heroes were the members of the young Alabama defense.

While Arkansas was in the process of building a near two-touchdown lead, Alabama's defense was showing its inexperience. On the first two plays of the game, the Alabama secondary gave up 74 yards. The two plays saw un-Alabama like egregious defensive errors being committed, including missed tackles and about 10 yards of separation given by the defensive backs. Less than a minute in, the Tide were down 7-0 in a hostile environment on the road in the SEC.

The next two quarters or so were inevitably better, but Arkansas' Ryan Mallett carved up the Tide with such constituency by the air that hadn't been seen against Alabama since Nick Saban's first year with the team. It should be noted that Alabama did force a Mallett interception in the end zone in the second quarter on a third-and-goal, the Tide's defensive highlight of the first 40 minutes of the game.

It sounds trite, but Alabama under Nick Saban embodies a never-say-die attitude. The defense, late in the third quarter, began to pressure Mallett, and the defensive backs who had given Mallett windows to place his throws began to stick to the Razorbacks' receivers. In the fourth quarter, this defensive turnabout manifested itself into the key play of the game.

With less than five minutes to go, and the Razorbacks holding onto a three-point lead inside their own 20 with on a 3rd-and-11 play, Alabama linebacker Courtney Upshaw blitzed and was about to shed his block to sack Mallett, forcing an early throw. Mallett overthrew his covered target, allowing Alabama's Robert Lester, who was providing safety help on the play, to make the game-changing interception. Lester returned it all the way to Arkansas' 12-yard line, prompting Ingram's 1-yard game-winning touchdown run.

As Mallett felt the effects of a Crimson Tide defense maturing before his eyes, his Alabama counterpart Greg McElroy improved from a two-interception second quarter. One of McElroy's two INTs was in the end zone, and the other led to an Arkansas touchdown in the dying stages of the first half. As the game progressed, however, McElroy made all the necessary throws for the Tide to win, including a couple of clutch third-down conversions.

Early-season games between two highly-ranked teams often pose many pre-game questions. The main ones for Saturday included:

* Can Alabama be beaten?
* Is Ryan Mallett as good as his first three games suggested?
* How will Mark Ingram's knee hold up in Alabama's first big test?
* Is Arkansas as a team as good as their ranking?

Big games in September struggle for context not only because not many games have been played yet, but also because over two-thirds of the season remain. Of the above questions, only the third can really be answered authoritatively as "very well." Ingram has not only shown no signs of injury in his first two games back, but has picked up right from where his Heisman-winning season left off.

Arkansas looked like a top-10 team Saturday, but its best win to this point is a last-minute win over a Georgia team that may be imploding already. By the same token, Mallett was very good through 40 minutes today, but made two big mistakes and put up huge numbers against potentially awful teams.

The first inquiry is the most interesting. Alabama definitely looked like it could be taken down at several stages today, but it has to take a more balanced offensive performance than what Arkansas offers.

Defensively, it looks ever the more unlikely that both Ingram and Trent Richardson can be held in check for a whole game. If a team wants to beat Alabama, it needs to limit the two super backs as much as possible while making McElroy try to beat you. Yet every time a team has forced McElroy to make the big plays, he has (think of the SEC Championship Game against Florida last December). It's one of the many reasons he hasn't lost a game as a starter since the eighth grade.

It's possible that Alabama played its toughest road game Saturday. But it may also be the case that trips to South Carolina and LSU may provide every bit the test that Arkansas did Saturday. The Florida game next week will get a massive amount of hype, but Alabama should win considering that they get the Gators at home and because this Florida team has looked underwhelming, despite the annual shellacking it put on Kentucky Saturday. Auburn looks impressive so far, but the Tide also get the Tigers at home. It also looks hard to predict how gaudy a record Auburn could build up, given that it has already won three games by a possession or less.

Alabama should be favored in every game until they lose at least, and deservedly so. Saturday's game showed that the Tide can still win by their trademark formula, even if the names are a little different and not everything goes their way to start.

Posted by Ross Lancaster at 7:02 PM | Comments (0)

Curt Schilling's Rhode Island Hoodwink

Curt Montague Schilling has never been one to duck controversy nor a good game of old-fashioned hard ball.

In fact, in the latter part of his Major League Baseball career as a starting pitcher, who many experts believe will be an easy entry into the Baseball Hall of Fame, Schilling became a lightning rod for controversy.

With his outspokenness, particularly critical of fellow MLB players, initially with Barry Bonds, in addition to his political rants in interviews and on his website concerning Capitol Hill politics, Schilling relishes confrontation.

Nonetheless, his bravado, or big mouth in some circles, was backed up by three World Series championships. The first was one with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who unexpectedly defeated the New York Yankees in a necessary seventh game in 2001.

The 2004 ALDS, which saw the Boston Red Sox win their first World Series since 1918, was almost as famous for Schilling's performances playing on a gimpy ankle against the NY Yankees, than the series itself.

The Red Sox came back from a 3-0 deficit to take that series. It was followed by a taking of the American League Championship Series against the Anaheim Angels, only to ultimately to win their crown against the St. Louis Cardinals in six games in the World Series.

But controversy followed Schilling in those postseason series in 2004, most notably for his bloody sock, the second of which was used in the ALCS, and now sits in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

It is still argued today, amongst fans and pundits alike, as to whether or not at least one of those socks was a prop, and perhaps the "blood" was fakery. After all, the reason for the blood was the supposed result of sutures used to hold ligaments and tendons together in his ankle, in order to forestall his eventual postseason required surgery.

There were not only questions about the bloody sock, but whether or not sutures would even be effective for such a structural injury in the first place, bringing up doubts about the veracity of the injury.

No such prop, however, followed Schilling to his third World Series Championship in 2007, again as a starting pitcher with the Boston Red Sox. But it is perhaps his bloody sock that has paid off for him in spades and helped to script his post-MLB career.

For the state of Rhode Island and its taxpayers, presently with the fourth highest unemployment rate in the United States at nearly 12%, is presently on the hook for a $75 million loan guarantee for Mr. Schilling and his 38 Studios, LLC.

It was formed in 2006 under the original company name, Green Monster Games, which Schilling swears, the name of which has nothing to do with Fenway Park's famous Green Monster wall. Schilling's games are not, however, of the sports variety, but modeled after the World of War Craft variety.

38 Studios is a startup intellectual property (IP) gaming developer, offering massively multi-player (MMO) and role player (RPG) game product for both online and free-standing consoles and PCs. Based in Maynard, Massachusetts, with its 70 present employees, it also includes the wholly owned subsidiary, Big Huge Games and its studios, located in Timonium, MD, that includes 80 employees.

The Rhode Island Economic Development Corporation (EDC) was appropriated funding for a new program called the Job Creation Guarantee Program. It was approved earlier in 2010, by virtue of state lawmakers approving it to specifically increase jobs for "knowledge-based industry" jobs throughout the state, in the digital media and information technology sector.

The program was originally authorized in June 2010 for a total of $50 million in loan guarantees, which the state would arrange with commercial banks in the form of bonds, in order to distribute to multiple entrepreneurs in the $2-$4 million range with a variety of companies within the field.

At the same time that Rhode Island was looking to bring high-tech jobs to Rhode Island, Curt Schilling was knocking on the door of the Massachusetts state house asking for a guaranteed loan in order to expand his 38 Studios. And if Massachusetts made it worth his while, his company would not leave the state.

Word has it that Schilling got wind of Rhode Island's new program and was using it as leverage against Massachusetts, much like MLB players do when they become free agents and use one team's bid against another in order to up the ante. When Massachusetts said they would work with him through a variety of tax incentives and not taxpayer based payouts, he bolted and approached Rhode Island in February 2010 for a loan guarantee.

Rhode Island, unlike its neighbor, Massachusetts, apparently bought it hook line and sinker, because the program's original authorization was increased from $50 million to $125 million, with 60% of it specifically earmarked for Curt Schilling. Quite a feat for a non-resident with no prior allegiance to the state of Rhode Island, nor a commitment to personally move his home there to date, just his company.

While some Rhode Island lawmakers have questioned how an additional $75 million would be allocated after they approved it, it also has played a part in the Rhode Island gubernatorial and state treasurer 2010 campaigns, as the whole matter has upset candidates and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle on whether this was a wise use of state funding. After all, Schilling has yet to ever sell a video game.

Although Schilling claims that he tried to raise venture capital for six months, not a one bit, as he had no product or track record to provide. In addition, the gaming industry is considered high risk, and in such a recessive economy, given that many game makers are also laying off employees regularly, did not further endear Schilling to investors for his endeavor.

Perhaps Schilling's best selling point was that he said he had invested his life's savings or $20-30 million into the company since 2006, and was dedicated to making it work out. Well, hardly, as his MLB contracts totaled $114 million over the course of his career, and he earned over $21 million alone during his last two years with the Red Sox in 2007 and 2008. He retired from MLB in 2009.

And with intellectual property startups, unlike traditional manufacturing, where hard assets are used as collateral, there is little to liquidate with an IP venture. Its soft assets would include intellectual property, licenses, publishing contracts, and software, but could be worth very little in the end.

Schilling has two pending game releases the first titled, Kingdom of Amalur: Reckoning, a single role-player or RPG for Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, and PCs, due in September 2011 and to be published by Electronic Arts. His other game, in development since 2006, has the working title, Copernicus, with no release date. It is a massively multiplier online game (MMO).

And even with the prospect of a game product, and only the promise of creating 450 well-paying high-tech jobs to be located in the state of Rhode Island by the fall of 2013, three years from now, in a volatile economy where discretionary income is in free-fall, Rhode Island took the bait anyway.

But EA and 38 Studios would need 1.75 million copies of Reckoning to sell just to break even. Best estimates presently are slated for 1 million copies to sell. And even though EA has decreased its number of annual releases each of the past two years from 50 to 35 games due to the soft economy, in addition to laying off 1,500 employees, it has already made its commitment.

Barely a month after the EDC's newest program was approved in June 2010, Curt Schilling signed his agreement with the EDC on July 26, 2010.

And regardless of all the executed contracts and promises, it will still take a great video game that will be the basis for well-paying jobs, expected to be in the range of $80,000 annually. It will take a great game in order to make good on this guaranteed loan by Schilling.

But if 38 Studios does not earn a dime, it will but pick the pockets of the good taxpayers of the state of Rhode Island based upon how the deal was structured. Genius perhaps on Schilling's part?

While the deal requires 450 jobs be established, not all of them will be in the $80,000 range. For some of the most lucrative jobs at Big Huge Games, based in Maryland, may never end up moving up to Rhode Island at all. Schilling just needs to present full-time jobs.

Of the $75 million guaranteed, just in the past two weeks, it was decided that $20 million will be held in reserve, for the time being. But within 15 months, the entire $51-$55 million, depending upon who you believe, becomes payable based upon certain demands being met, such as the number of employees added and a scheduled release date for Copernicus, for example.

But the initial payment in the amount of $13 million will be payable at the expected October 2010 closing date with the full balance paid prior to the requirement of adding the full 450 jobs and only 300 jobs.

Oversight of the contract by a third party has yet to be chosen by the EDC, nor have all of the final pieces been finalized as to how the Job Creation Guarantee Program will operate other than the outlining of Schilling's finalized deal.

The state also has yet to publicly offer the program for the remaining $50 million, to be divided amongst other startups with each receiving between $2-4 million. Rhode Island will unveil the program with local Chambers of Commerce in October, supposedly after the Schilling deal is done.

Putting Shilling's corporate welfare deal at the head of the line is apparently a priority. If it were not so ironic, it perhaps would not be such a wheel barrel of crazy. After all, "What government-run funded program in this country's history has ever been run with an ounce of financial responsibility, prudence, or with peoples' best interest at the forefront? None. That's which one." The aforementioned was said by Curt Schilling himself on January 14, 2010.

How the winds have changed in just a short six months. For now, going to one of the most cash-strapped states, not to mention the smallest state, with hand outstretched in search of government subsidized corporate welfare is apparently just fine.

The upshot is Curt Schilling may like to play video games and may know how to pitch a winning World Series game, but he knows little about managing a multi-million dollar operation and in building the empire in which he predicts will become a billion dollar business.

And while Schilling is not blameless, as the state of Rhode Island, its governor, and lawmakers gave the keys to the EDC to arrange this high-stakes gamble, it could not have come at a worse time.

With the public trust in government waning by the day, not to mention taxpayers' wallets, many may be left with egg on their faces, as well as out in the cold after all is said and done.

But do not expect one of them to be one Curt Schilling. He will just go on to the next controversy and likely into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Posted by Diane M. Grassi at 3:06 PM | Comments (0)

September 26, 2010

Sabathia Does Not Deserve Cy Young

The 2010 Cy Young conversation had been a fascinating debate. It had raised questions about how to determine if a pitcher is successful, and the value of certain statistics.

But, unlike other years, the 2010 debate has recently become quite a silly argument as the season comes to a close.

The main discussion has been between CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez. David Price and Francisco Liriano are also in the discussion, but for some reason have not been given nearly as much attention as the other two.

If we were to do a raw breakdown of earned run average, from smallest to largest, the four candidates would come out in this order: Hernandez, Price, Sabathia, Liriano.

Already, you see how ridiculous the debate has become. At this point, Sabathia is as close to the front-runner as you can be, but there are two people who are already leading him in one of the most important statistics in ERA.

But clearly ERA is not the only statistic.

You can argue for hours about which pitcher is most deserving of the award. You can examine statistics, game-by-game stats, or simply recall dominating starts throughout the season. Nonetheless, we need to guard against Sabathia winning the award and teach people that being on a good team does not make you a better pitcher.

For arguments sake, let's examine the popular Hernandez vs. Sabathia battle. If you look across all the major statistics (ERA, W-L record, IP, SO, BB, H, and HR) Sabathia only outdoes Hernandez in the W-L department. If you ask me, that is completely insignificant.

Of all the stats we looked at, W-L records are the least representative of a pitchers ability. Why? Because a pitcher can pitch the best game of his life and still lose the game. It all depends on how good your teams offense is (a factor you do not contribute to as a pitcher in the AL) and the pitcher you are opposing.

Clearly, Sabathia is the beneficiary of the better offense. The Yankees have scored the most runs in the majors, the Mariners have scored the least. The Yankees have the best record in the majors, the Mariners have the second worst.

To further express these lopsided numbers, consider run support. In games Hernandez has started, his team has scored 3.16 runs/game on average. Sabathia, on the other hand, enjoys 5.99 runs/game.

Clearly, Sabathia is going to win more games. His team scores more runs for him, his team has a better bullpen to hold leads, and his team is far superior in every possible aspect of the game.

Since 1920, 34,741 pitchers have thrown a quality start (6 or more innings pitched and 3 runs or less) and lost the game. Wins for a pitcher are influenced by many outside factors, and thus should not be considered for the Cy Young award.

All in all, I would hate to see Felix Hernandez — the league leader in ERA, strikeouts, and innings pitched — be stripped of an award he clearly deserves simply because he is on a bad team. Even if you consider Wins, Hernandez outdoes Sabathia in nearly every pitching category.

Let's stop associating bad teams with bad players. After all, Cy Young was a great pitcher, but the Cleveland Spiders only made it to the playoffs once.

Posted by Jess Coleman at 6:19 PM | Comments (0)

September 25, 2010

Latest Concussion Ends LaRue's Career

The position of catcher, as anyone will tell you, is without a doubt the toughest on the diamond. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out.

Foul tips, errant swings, collisions at home, wild pitches ... the major league catcher deals with all sorts of abuse, which is why it isn't unusual to find that many of them suffer through more than their fair share of sprains, strains, pulls, tears, fractures, etc. The season can take a lot out of some players, but being behind the plate for 120-130 games can be downright unbearable.

Jason LaRue hasn't played as many as 120 games in a season since 2001, but he's been through the wringer, nevertheless. LaRue estimates that he's suffered through "close to 20" concussions since high school, though not all were sustained on the baseball field. This latest head injury has led LaRue to announce his retirement after the 2010 season.

"If I was in a different situation, it wouldn't be anything like this," LaRue said, "but as a catcher, you're so vulnerable to getting another [concussion]. All it takes is a foul ball to the head. Even as a backup that happened [three to five] times last year. It's not a question of if it would happen again, it's when."

Even with advances and improvements in catchers' masks, the ever-present danger of head injuries made it "a simple decision" to retire, said the 12-year veteran.

"I was going to retire on my own terms," LaRue continued. "It's unfortunate that the blow that decided it came from someone kicking me in the head with spikes. I wouldn't say I would change things if you could rewrite history. They say things happen for certain reasons. In this case, I couldn't tell you why. Does it suck that my career is over because Johnny Cueto started kicking me in the head? Yes, it sucks.

"I expected to walk away when I felt it was right. The bottom line: it's unfortunate."

Unfortunate, indeed. Johnny Cueto's indiscriminate kicking during the fracas not only caught LaRue (in the face, no less), but also struck Cards pitcher Chris Carpenter in the back. Cueto was suspended seven games and fined an undisclosed amount for his involvement in the bench-clearing melee.

"Riding in a car going to the doctors, I'd have to close my eyes" LaRue said of his lingering symptoms. "It's one of the hardest things in the world to explain. You don't feel right. It's been a little more than a month since it happened and I'm finally starting to feel more normal."

The saddest part of this has nothing to do with whether or not Cueto was punished appropriately, or even how this fight began in the first place. It's the likelihood that Jason LaRue will live with the effects of this, and the other approximately 19 or more concussions, for the rest of his life.

Neurological medicine may, someday, advance to the point at which the effects of severe head trauma may be reversed, but for now players like LaRue and countless others from many different sports must learn to adjust to and cope with memory loss, dizziness, and vertigo-like symptoms, chronic headaches, visual changes, and for some, gradual loss of motor skills and manual dexterity and reflexes, among other deleterious symptoms of repetitive head trauma.

True, this isn't all Cueto's fault. This is a path set upon by Jason LaRue long before the August brawl between the Cards and Reds, one which began when he suffered his first sports-related head injury, and ended with a reckless and potentially deadly assault which could have left LaRue blind or worse.

"He's in a great position as long as he takes real good care of his head," Cardinals manager Tony La Russa said. "He's had a very solid major league career, a lot of highlights, and I know one of them is he hit a homer last year that put our magic number at zero.

"He's got a great life ahead of him."

Here's hoping that he'll be able to remember it.

Posted by Clinton Riddle at 3:02 PM | Comments (0)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 27

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin survived a tussle with Carl Edwards with 88 laps to go and charged late, nearly catching Clint Bowyer for the win, but settling for the runner-up spot in the Sylvania 400. Hamlin more than tripled his points lead, and now leads Clint Bowyer, Sunday's winner, by 35.

"I'm probably the first driver to say this," Hamlin said, "but that run-in with Edwards may have been the best thing to happen to me. Usually, incidents with Edwards lead to thoughts of '99' ways to die; this time, however, it resulted in one way to win."

2. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer duplicated his feat from 2007, starting the 2010 Chase for the Cup with a win in the opener at New Hampshire. Bowyer, in the No. 33 Hamburger Helper/Cheerios Chevy, dominated, leading 177 of 300 laps, but needed luck, capitalizing on Tony Stewart's empty fuel tank to clinch the win.

"I'd like to say seeing me in his rear view mirror contributed to Tony Stewart running out of fuel," Bowyer said. "If it didn't, then my constant encouragement to 'Go ahead, make my day' certainly did."

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished fifth at New Hampshire, posting a strong first race of the Chase after starting 27th. It was Harvick's 12th top-five finish of the year, and he remained third in the point standings, 35 behind Denny Hamlin.

"Clint Bowyer drove a heck of a race," Harvick said, "and made Richard Childress Racing proud. No offense to my 2011 sponsor, but to Clint, I must raise a drink and say, 'This is for you, Bud.'"

4. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson started 25th at Loudon and patiently worked his way through the field, with a top-10 finish a likely result until a series of mishaps led to a disappointing finish. Johnson was battling Kyle Busch for seventh on lap 221 when Kurt Busch spun battling Jeff Burton for position. Johnson and Kyle Busch made contact, damaging the front of the No. 48 Lowe's Chevy. Johnson recovered with only lost track position, but a vibration forced a green flag stop on lap 255. He lost a lap and eventually finished 25th.

"It wasn't much of a birthday present," said Johnson, who turned 35 on Friday. "But one thing's for sure — I certainly got a 'spanking.'"

"A 92-point deficit can be overcome, but I can't afford another misstep. This team won't panic, though. Don't think I'm vulnerable because, after four Cup championships, I've lost the desire to win another. That's not the case. I do want another, and when I climb the leaderboard to glory, they'll be calling it a 'comeback for more.'"

5. Jeff Gordon — A decision to top of his fuel tank with 90 laps to go proved wise for Gordon, as it allowed him to go the distance on the way to a sixth in the Sylvania 300. Gordon improved from eight to fifth in the point standings; however, he lost ground to the leader, and trails Denny Hamlin by 75 points.

"After 56 races without a win," Gordon said, "I think I'm qualified to recognize a 'no-win situation' when I see one."

6. Kyle Busch — Busch survived contact with Jimmie Johnson's No. 48, as both checked up to avoid Kurt Busch's spin on lap 221, to bring home a ninth at New Hampshire. Busch remained fourth in the Sprint Cup point standings, and trails Denny Hamlin by 62 points.

"Things are certainly looking up for Joe Gibbs Racing," Busch said. "Between Denny Hamlin and I, I'd say a championship is a likelihood, which would give Gibbs another 'Cup a Joe.'"

"Plus, I've got my own television show, 'Riding Shotgun: Kyle Busch,' on ESPN, where people on the street can question the authenticity of my fiancee's body parts. Gosh, people do the same thing with my brother Kurt."

7. Carl Edwards — Edwards led the way for Roush Fenway Racing at New Hampshire, placing 11th in the Chase opener. Edwards raced in the top 10 for most of the day, suffering a slight setback when he slid into Denny Hamlin on lap 215, causing the No. 11 FedEx car to spin. Edwards improved one spot in the point standings to eighth, and trails Hamlin by 95.

"Hamlin's lucky," Edwards said. "One would think that when Carl Edwards nudges a car sponsored by a package delivery company, chances are usually good that someone goes 'airborne.'"

"Anyway, if Hamlin eventually wins the Sprint Cup, I can call my little incident with him my 'brush with greatness."

8. Tony Stewart — Stewart led 100 laps at New Hampshire, but fuel mileage betrayed him two laps from the end when his tank ran dry. Clint Bowyer flew by Stewart's sputtering No. 14 Office Depot Chevy, and Stewart finished 24th, falling five places in the standings to 11th.

"We went down swinging," Stewart said. "I'm not bitter, and I'm very happy for Clint Bowyer. I guess that makes me 'Mister Congeniality,' a fellow that pairs up nicely with the female counterpart, 'Miss Calculate.'"

9. Kurt Busch — Busch finished 13th in the Sylvania 300, not the result he desired yet not one that ruined his Sprint Cup hopes. Busch started 12th and fought a loose-handling No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge all day, at times driving a bit too over-aggressively. He is now sixth in the point standings, 86 out of first.

"You've got to feel for Tony Stewart," Busch said. "That had to be a heartbreaking loss, as is the case with most victories/losses decided by fuel mileage. I saw Tony after the race and asked him how to spell 'fuel.' All I got from him was the 'F-U.'"

10. Jeff Burton — Burton and the No. 31 Caterpillar racing team say a top-five finish evaporate when he ran out of fuel with two laps to go in the Sylvania 300. Burton was able to coast to the finish line and finish 15th, which puts him 112 behind Denny Hamlin in the point standings.

"It's not often you can say you gave it everything you had," Burton said, "and still 'tanked.'"

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:57 AM | Comments (0)

September 23, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 3

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Tennessee @ NY Giants (-3)

When the Titans and Giants hook up early on Sunday, you can expect one thing — something "big" will go wrong. Tennessee committed seven turnovers in a 19-11 loss to Pittsburgh last week, while the G-Men surrendered 410 total yards in a 38-14 loss in Indianapolis.

"We're sticking with Vince Young at quarterback," said Jeff Fisher, already sporting a playoff beard. "That's just a polite way to say 'we're stuck' with Vince at quarterback."

"Vince has a wealth of talent, and when all is said and done, I hope I can say I helped him realize that talent. It's the least I can do. He's made me a better coach, as well as a better skeet shooter. I can say 'pull' with the best of them now."

To beat the Titans, the G-Men will have to contain Johnson and limit his effectiveness to short gains. And, they'll have to run the ball themselves, and successfully doing so should open things up against Tennessee's No. 1-rated pass defense.

"We certainly looked bad against the rush at Indianapolis," said Tom Coughlin. "I saw better resistance from Colts fans trying to hang on to Brandon Jacob's helmet. I haven't seen that much fuss over a hat since Dr. Seuss started rhyming. By the way, Dr. Dre is only the second-best rapping doctor."

"Anyway, we're at home, so if Jacobs tosses his helmet into the stands again, I will let the lucky fan keep it, and Jacobs not only will be looking for a helmet, he'll be looking for a job. Hey, how is Jacobs' helmet like his jock strap? They're both empty."

In the loss to Pittsburgh, the Titans defense wasn't the problem, and performed admirably in the face of seven turnovers. This time, the Titan defense plays the bully.

Tennessee wins, 24-16.

San Francisco @ Kansas City (+1)

What's most surprising in the NFL this year, save for the 0-2 Vikings and Cowboys, the 2-0 Buccaneers, and the 34-24-38 Ines Sainz? Well, it has to be the 2-0 Chiefs, who lead the AFC West as one of the conference's four undefeated teams.

"Exactly," said Todd Haley. "'2-0' sounds a lot like 'T 'n A.' I assure you, if Miss Sainz came to a Chiefs practice, she would be treated with the utmost respect. In fact, we'd like to import, I mean invite, her to a practice. Our in-house travel agent, Dwayne Bowe, will gladly fondle, I mean handle, arrangements."

Known as a great motivator, Mike Singletary may have his toughest motivational task on hand in handling the 49ers after Monday night's painful 25-22 loss to the Saints, which dropped the Niners to 0-2.

"Motivation wasn't a problem on Monday," Singletary said. "We played with heart, desire, immediacy, and several other adjectives used to describe a valiant losing team. It was inspiring to see Jerry Rice put one finger in the air at halftime; it was equally as inspiring to see Ronnie Lott put half-a-finger in the air before the game."

Alas, it wasn't enough. But it should be against the Chiefs. I don't smell a rat, but I do smell victory. It smells like napalm in the morning."

San Francisco wins, 19-13.

Dallas @ Houston (-4)

Say what you will about the Cowboys' troubles (and be sure to take a deep breath, for you'll be talking for awhile), but Dallas is only one game out of the division lead, shared by everybody but them. With a win in Houston, the 'Boys are back in business.

"This is a huge, huge game for us," said Jerry Jones. "As they say, everything's bigger in Texas, including crises, but not Wade Phillip's head. That noggin is big anywhere."

"As must-win games go, this is our first of what is sure to be many this year. And, I must say, our record in must-win games is pretty stellar, playoff games notwithstanding. We need this one badly, lest we force fans to endure endless stats about an 0-3 team's chances of making the Super Bowl."

The Texans are undefeated and eager for a win over their in-state counterparts. Houston's Arian Foster exploded for 231 yards rushing in Week 1 versus the Colts, while Matt Schaub torched the Redskins for 497 yards passing last week.

"Our offensive balance is impressive," Gary Kubiak. "Of course, it would be even more impressive if it happened in the same game. On Sunday, we'll just take what the Cowboys give us, and if penalties are any indication, that should give us at least a football field's length head start."

The Cowboys jump on the Texans early, as DeMarcus Ware harasses Matt Schaub. Mario Williams does the same to Tony Romo, but unlike Schaub, Romo has experience running for his life.

In the end, the Cowboys emerge on top in a wild affair, taking a 33-30 victory for their first win in Texas, and the headline "Blazing Saddles" adorns the sports page of Monday's Dallas Morning Herald.

Buffalo @ New England (-14)

After a 14-14 tie at halftime, the Patriots were shut down by the Jets defense without an injured Darrelle Revis, managing just 80 yards in the second half on their way to a 28-14 loss. Luckily, the Pats host the Bills this week, a team widely considered to be the NFL's worst.

"I'll not engage in any Bills-bashing," Tom Brady said. "Buffalo may be down on its luck, but I'll defend any fellow AFC East team, as long as it's not the Jets or Dolphins. The Bills have many things going for them, but I think this one particular superlative describes the team best: they were voted 'Team Most Likely To Move to Canada.'"

"Like I said after the Jets game, we sucked in the second half. It's not often the Pats go scoreless in a half, especially after such a productive first half. You can look at that at a glass half-full; I prefer to look at it as one half-empty."

"But I know a sight for sore eyes when I see one. Heck, I'm married to one. And the Bills are a sight for sore eyes. Therefore, we welcome the Bills team and their fans to Gillette Stadium. And, as proof of our hospitality, we're gladly allowing willing fans to shoot all the liquor they want from a bowling ball. We'll spare nothing in our efforts to please."

Harvard-educated Ryan Fitzpatrick will get the start against the Pats, taking over for Trent Edwards, as the Bills try to infuse some Ivy League pep into their stagnant offense.

"Speaking of 'ivy,'" Fitzpatrick said, "the joke around town is that it moves faster than the Bills offense. Even faster if it's playing our defense."

But enough with the nonsense. We can only hope the Pats are looking ahead to next week's showdown in Miami with the Dolphins. If that happens, we can only pray our early 6-0 lead holds up."

Brady throws for 4 touchdowns, 2 to Randy Moss, who snares one-handed grabs with each hand.

New England wins, 38-17.

Cleveland @ Baltimore (-11)

The 1-1 Ravens can take comfort in their first home game this year, as well as the fact that ten points will probably be enough to beat the Browns, likely by 10 points, this Sunday at M&T Bank Stadium. The sturdy Ravens defense, always a given, has held the Jets and Bengals to nine and 15 points, respectively, but the offense has sputtered, scoring 10 in each game.

"We'd be in business," said Ray Lewis, "if football, like boxing, was scored on the 10-point must system. But it's not. But we darn sure seem to get penalized for fouls. We were docked six points by the officials last Sunday on calls that led to Bengals field goals. I was called for tripping when I was blocked in to Carson Palmer, and Terrell Suggs was penalized for roughing Palmer."

We've been there before, Tom Brady, and it seems there's a bias by the referees against the Ravens. We call those 'BS' calls, because there's a decided 'Baltimore slant' to them."

The Ravens score 10 points, somehow on their first possession, and Joe Flacco tosses an interception-free game, with two passing scores, one each to Ray Rice and Anquan Boldin. Lewis caps the scoring with a fumble return to paydirt.

Baltimore wins, 26-3.

Detroit @ Minnesota (-10)

While the Packers and Bears face off on Monday night for the NFC North lead, the 0-2 Lions and the 0-2 Vikings do battle to climb from the division cellar. The Lions have shown signs of life in two losses, but the Vikings have struggled, with their offense managing only 20 points in two games.

"Right now," Favre said, "the only 'W' I'm sporting are this pair of Wranglers. What's it feel like to be 0-2. I'll tell you. It's 'Unreal. Uncomfortable. (Like an ill-fitting pair of) Jeans."

"Now, it doesn't look like a trade for Vincent Jackson will pan out. As far as having 'Jacksons' on this team, we're just going to have to settle for 'Tavaris,' which is something I'm sure Brad Childress will have trouble doing."

The Lions two losses have come by a total of 8 points, with a late comeback falling short against the Eagles in a 35-32 loss last week. Rookie Ndamukong Suh and Jahvid Best have paid immediate dividends; Suh has 2 sacks, and Best leads the NFL with 5 touchdowns.

"See," said Jim Schwartz. "The Lions get rid of Matt Millen, and our drafts improve substantially. I guess that's why they called Millen the 'Lion Tamer.'"

Adrian Peterson explodes for 174 yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Lions, behind two scores from Calvin Johnson, stay in it.

Minnesota wins, 30-23.

Atlanta @ New Orleans (-5)

The 2-0 Saints will try to maintain the NFC South lead, hosting the 1-1 Falcons, 41-7 winners over the Cardinals last week. Atlanta has turned the ball over only twice this year, and will need to maintain that type of security against the ball-hawking Saints defense, which forced 4 turnovers in Monday's 25-22 win over San Francisco.

"We've finished second in the NFC South for two straight years now," Mike Smith said. "That has to change, and it will start with a win in the Big Easy. We're the 'Dirty Birds,' not the 'Dirty Bridesmaids.'"

Now, the Saints will be without the services of Reggie Bush, who fractured his tibia in Monday night's game. Bush is difficult to game-plan for, and his absence makes our job that much easier. For Saints' opponents, there's nothing much better than Bush on one knee, except for Kim Kardashian on two."

With a win over the Falcons, the Saints would be undefeated, with games against Carolina, Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Cleveland to follow before a Halloween night showdown against the Steelers. It's conceivable to think that the Saints could be 7-0 when they face the Steelers.

"There's really no reason to get all worked up about an undefeated record," Sean Payton said. "We'll leave that to those old-timey, support hose-wearing, past-living 1972 Dolphins. God rest their souls."

Anyway, we're coming right after the Falcons. There will be no trickery, like an onside kick to start the second half. It will all be out there for everyone to see. We'll leave nothing to the imagination. Call us the New Orleans 'Sainz.'"

Falcons win, 29-27.

Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay (+3)

After wins over Cleveland and Carolina, the Bucs are riding high atop the NFC South, confident after their first 2-0 start since 2005. The task to remain undefeated gets considerably tougher when the 2-0 Steelers visit Raymond James Stadium.

"I like our chances," Raheem Morris said. "But I'd like our chances even more if Jake Delhomme had some connection to the Steelers. We're 2-0 against teams currently or formerly quarterbacked by Delhomme."

Not so fast, Raheem. There is a connection between Delhomme and the Steelers. Word out of Cleveland is that Delhomme is currently locked in a bathroom, not by his own doing, but by that of his teammates.

The Steelers rode their rock-solid defense to a 19-11 win in Tennessee, improving to 2-0. In their two wins, Pittsburgh has leaned heavily on its defense while awaiting the return of Ben Roethlisberger, who will bring big-play capability to the passing game, something that has been lacking with Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch filling in.

"Dixon was put in a difficult situation," said Ben Roethlisberger, "and despite everything, he's performed admirably. Although I'm partial to Beavers, I've still got a soft spot for Oregon Ducks."

Now, with a 2-0 record, there's a good chance we'll be 4-0 when I return from my suspension. It's just another instance of special treatment for a superstar."

Charlie Batch gets the start, but suffers an ankle injury when his foot gets tangled in Troy Polamalu's hair at half-time. Byron Leftwich gets the save, tossing only 8 pitches, and the Pittsburgh defense dominates again.

Steelers win, 22-13.

Cincinnati @ Carolina (+3)

Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, the NFL's "Batman and Robin," bring their act to North Carolina to face the reeling Panthers, who, incidentally, have been playing like cat-women in two double-digit losses. The Bengals, after a Week 1 drubbing in New England, played truer to form last week, earning a hard-fought 15-10 win over the Ravens.

"Wow! Ochocinco and Owens in the same stadium?" said John Fox. "And I thought those two on the same network was something. This is even better! It will be like a homecoming, because the charlatans are coming to Charlotte."

Now, somebody tell those jokers that there's a Bat Cave in North Carolina. It's true. Check your atlas, or your GPS."

The Panthers will start rookie Jimmy Clausen at quarterback after two subpar performances cause Matt Moore to fall from favor. Clausen was the Panthers second-round pick in the draft, and his first start will come against one of the league's more rugged defenses.

"If Ochocinco and Owens are Batman and Robin," Clausen said, "then I must be Mr. Freeze, because I go cold in big games."

But I'm not worried about Ochocinco and Owens, the NFL's 'Hyped Crusaders.' I'm concerned mostly with the Cincinnati defense. Hopefully, I'll make the right decisions. Bank of America Stadium isn't Notre Dame Field, so I won't have Jesus watching over me. And I'm not Tim Tebow, so, as before, I won't have Jesus watching over me."

Clausen has a rough day, throwing 4 interceptions, and 2 completions to Owens and Ochocinco, who make nonchalant grabs while sucking oxygen and Tweeting on the Cincy bench.

Cincinnati wins, 23-13.

Washington @ St. Louis (+3½)

The Redskins gave up 497 yards through the air in a 30-27 loss to Houston, prompting Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall to say that, "this is my team; this is my defense," which in turn should have prompted defensive coordinator Jim Haslett to say, "Fine. It's yours."

"I'm just trying to light a fire under this team," said Hall. "I'll reiterate my statement that I should be covering our opposition's No. 1 receiver. If I would have been marking Andre Johnson last week, he never would have made that 34-yard touchdown catch to tie the game. It more likely it would have been 80 yards."

Now, isn't it brash of me to demand to cover the opposition's No. 1 receiver just days before we play a team that doesn't even have one?"

The Rams lost a tough 16-14 decision in Oakland due in part to five personal fouls. Discipline will play a key role if the Rams are to upset the Redskins.

"When you play dirty against the Raiders," said Steve Spagnuolo, "you know you've earned those penalties. You know, the Raiders of yore were known for their personal fouls; today, they're known more for their personnel fouls."

Clinton Portis rushes for 2 scores, then does his post-game interview dressed as a FedEx mailer, and invites reporters to "check out his package."

Washington wins, 24-17.

Philadelphia @ Jacksonville (+3)

Despite two-straight stellar efforts from Michael Vick (one in relief of Kevin Kolb, the other as the starter), Andy Reid said Monday that Kolb would start when the 1-1 Eagles visit Jacksonville's sparsely populated Municipal Stadium. Then, on Tuesday, Reid changed his mind, naming Vick the starter.

"Hey, Jacksonville may have a history of attendance problems," Reid said, "but the Eagles would have no trouble filling a stadium ... full of people who disagreed with my original decision of Kolb starting."

"The city of Jacksonville should thank me, though. The last thing they need is another black out in Jacksonville."

"But Kevin and Michael supported my decision either way. Kevin because he's obviously still concussed, and Michael because he's a team player. Not only do I like 'scripted' plays, I also like 'scripted' Vick comments supporting my decision."

Jack Del Rio is well aware of Reid's quandary. Del Rio benched starter David Garrard after 4 interceptions in favor Luke McCown, who was hurt after a solid relief effort. McCown has a torn ACL and is out for the year.

"So much for a quarterback controversy here," Del Rio said. "Here in Jacksonville, there's always a battle between the 'Bench David Garrard' and the 'Start Luke McCown' factions. This should at least quiet McCown's supporters, who are a crazy, outspoken bunch known as the 'Insane McCown Posse.'

Vick throws for 3 touchdowns against the Jaguars suspect pass defense, and the Eagles roll to a 27-17 win.

Indianapolis @ Denver (+5½)

After giving up 257 yards on the ground in a loss to Houston, the Colts' defense responded, somewhat, holding the Giants to 120 yards rushing in a 38-14 win last Sunday night. The Colts themselves rushed for 160 on the ground, resulting in a more balanced attack after Week 1's pass-heavy effort at Houston.

"You know what that means," Peyton Manning said. "Play-action is back in Indianapolis. And safeties are biting in Denver. The Colts bring something to Denver that Broncos fans aren't used to seeing: a quarterback worthy of worship. Tim Tebow may have a spot reserved in heaven, but I've got one reserved in the Hall of Fame."

The Broncos and head coach Josh McDaniels hope to have cornerback Champ Bailey available to face the Colts. Bailey injured his right ankle in last week's win over the Seahawks.

"Slowing the Colts' fast-paced attack is the first order of business," McDaniels said. "If Champ can go, we'll be in good shape. If not, we'll have to rely on the natural grass and the mile-high altitude of Invesco Field to contain the Colts. Believe me, I want to beat the Colts, almost as much as I want the Jay Cutler-led Bears and Brandon Marshall-led Dolphins to lose."

Manning throws for 324 yards and 3 scores, and the Colts win 29-20.

Oakland @ Arizona (-4)

Quarterback issues abound in the Raiders/Cardinals matchup, which pits two 1-1 teams struggling to find their identity in the wake of inconsistent quarterback play,

"There are no plans to bench Derek Anderson," said Ken Whisenhunt, "but I won't rule out plans to tap three of my best players and take a mission trip to lure Kurt Warner back to Arizona. Nor will I rule our scouring local grocery stores for a bagger with a rocket arm and a perpetual five-o'clock shadow."

That's what they call a vote of confidence in Arizona these days.

The Raiders are 1-1, not terribly impressive by any means, but better than the eight teams with 0-2 records. Offensively, the team has struggled, and already, Jason Campbell, who was supposed to stabilize the Oakland quarterback situation, has been replaced by Bruce Gradkowski.

"It's alarming when your kicker is scoring most of your points," said Tom Cable. "On a positive note, Sebastian Janikowski is hearing chants of 'MVP! MVP!' as opposed to charges of 'GHP! GHP!'"

Cardinals win, 27-12.

San Diego @ Seattle (+6)

It seems that Philip Rivers and the Chargers can manage just fine without Vincent Jackson. In a 38-13 pasting of the Jaguars, Rivers threw for 334 yards and 3 touchdowns, completing passes to eight different receivers. On Sunday, Rivers faces a Seahawks defense that gave up 303 yards passing to Denver's Kyle Orton.

"I wish for the best for Vincent," Rivers said, "wherever he goes. But I won't shed a tear when he leaves. Heck, I'll even help him pack. Hence, 'Vincent. Van. Go.'"

I'm confident in the state of our receiving corps as it is. Antonio Gates is my go-to guy, and Malcolm Floyd and Patrick Crayton are solid targets. And, contrary to popular belief, Legedu Naanee is not a Kenyan steeplechaser, and is, in fact, a great receiver."

I'm excited about playing in Seattle. There's quite a buzz brewing there, and I'm not alone when I say the reunion of Soundgarden is a hot topic of conversation in our locker room. Oh yeah, and Pete Carroll's arrival in Seattle was a big deal, at least for a week."

Chargers win, 26-17.

NY Jets @ Miami (Even)

The Jets, fresh off a commanding 28-14 win over New England, take to the road to face the 2-0 Dolphins in a battle to decide the outright lead in the AFC East. The 'Fins recorded an equally impressive road win last week, knocking off the Vikings, 14-10.

"Just when they've put the Ines Sainz incident behind them," said Tony Sparano, "the Jets have to come to Miami, where there's nothing but Hispanic reporters."

But speaking of 'asses that just won't quit,' Rex Ryan is the mouthpiece of the boastful Jets. In most cases, their actions back up their words. Us? We'll remain quiet, if for no other reason than Joey Porter is no longer a Dolphin."

Of course, the Jets have pressing issues. Darrelle Revis is out, and Braylon Edwards was arrested for driving while impaired. Frankly, I'm surprised he got busted, because, where Edwards is concerned, things usually don't 'get caught.' To add insult to injury, I believe cops also found an open container in his beard."

Edwards won't start, but will play. His impact on the game will be minute, however, because the Jets are just as well off driving without him. Against the Dolphins, New York will lean on their power rushing attack.

Shonn Greene pounds for 121 yards and a touchdown, and Nick Folk kicks four field goals.

New York wins, 19-12.

Green Bay @ Chicago (+3½)

The undefeated Bears are back in the NFC North picture, and Monday night's showdown with Green Bay will determine the early division leader in what is likely to be a competitive division. The Bears are led by Jay Cutler, the NFL's top-rated passer, who has improved greatly from a 2009 campaign marred by numerous interceptions. This year, Cutler has only thrown only 1 pick, and has 5 touchdown passes.

"I can only take so much of the credit for Cutler's radical transformation," said offensive guru Mike Martz. "That 'so much' just happens to be 'all of it.' I was never one lacking in confidence, and the 'Smug Life' tattoo across my abdomen supports that."

Chicago wins, 31-28.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:36 PM | Comments (0)

The Best and Worst Sports Websites

Let's get right to it. Here are the sites I love, followed by a couple that I cannot stand. Luckily, there are more of the former than the latter because, well, once I find a site to be useless, I tend to move on and forget about it.

The only sports-related website I would use the word "indispensable" to describe is Matt Sarz Sports. It is such an insanely comprehensive view of what college football and basketball games will be aired where (including online, for football). It's constantly updated. Look at his Twitter feed! He's so frenetic and passionate about keeping everything up-to-date. Click on a recent week, and you'll see it will even reflect local broadcasts, and he keeps separate lists of games only being shown online as well as games not being broadcasted at all. As soon as he receives a tip or learns of a broadcast, it goes onto the main "board" of that week.

Notice, too, things like coverage maps and links to affiliate stations. So you know FOX Sports is going to carry Arizona State/Oregon, but you don't know if FOX Sports Southwest, specifically, will? Just click on "FSN List" next to the game and find out. He does not miss a trick. And as soon as he learns the first kickoff time and network of a game next year, there will be an entry for "2012 college football," no matter how early it is. I've praised this site in my column before and will again. It is awesome.

Speaking of "coverage maps," The506.com is a weekly stop for me, where the author neatly overlays a color-coded broadcast map of which stations will be airing what NFL game over a Google map of the United States. What are those white areas? That means "no game" in that city, at that time slot, on that network. Didn't you know that the NFL prohibits media markets from putting on a game at the same time as the local team?

The local team must be the only game in town. That means, if it is FOX's week to have a doubleheader and your team is playing on CBS, then you don't get a FOX doubleheader. You get your own team's game in one time slot and one game in the other time slot.

So yeah, I learned that thanks to The506.com. Before I was aware of the phenomenon, but I just thought local stations were unwilling to go against the local team with more football, and figured their best chance at ratings would be to broadcast something non-sports-related. Turns out they don't have a choice. Thanks, NFL! As always, you put the fan first.

Anyway, The506.com has been branching out lately to include broadcaster lists for college games, MLB on FOX maps, and other useful sports errata.

The more time goes by, the more my blog list is pared down. Right now, there are only two sports blogs I read regularly. One is Matt Hinton's college football blog on Yahoo!, Dr. Saturday.

It helps that I seem to agree with him every time he proffers an opinion. That's not what keeps me coming back, though. He can actually write! Like, he seems to take some pride in his art! He's not bombastic! He's actually pretty calm and understated! Doesn't he know this is the blogosphere, where we are supposed to be able to close our eyes and feel the slobber?

"Understated" is not what I would call my other favorite blog. Nor would I call it politically correct, dignified, or calm. I would call it absolutely hilarious. Kissing Suzy Kolber, which you might infer from the name, is an irreverent look at the NFL. Actually, "irreverent" is not even doing it justice. They will go anywhere, and make any joke. No sacred cows over there, and that's how I like my football blogs and my stand-up comedians.

And they write mini-plays, with recurring characters. Ben Roethlisberger as a Faulknerian man-child, Hines Ward (who is half-Korean) as a crude (very crude ... too ridiculously crude for anyone to actually get offended) Chinese stereotype, Chad Ochocinco as a precocious kid asking his coach ridiculous questions, "Tawmmy from Quinzee," a racist Patriots superfan with too much testosterone, and my favorite, a Cowboys foursome of Wade Phillips as a straight man, Jason Garrett as a brown-nosing evil genius, Pacman Jones as an incoherent sex-addict and alcoholic, and Jerry Jones as Jerry Jones.

Honorable mention (because it is so infrequently updated) goes to the KenPom.com blog. Ken Pomeroy is the guy who created the college basketball "kenpom" rating system of some note. I'm not a math or stats geek, so I love it when someone who is can clue me in to what the numbers mean in a fascinating way. He does that.

The worst? I've defended the ESPN monolith before, but when I need scores, news, stats, whatever, the kind of thing that I can get anywhere, I never ever ever ever ever ever go to ESPN for it. I hate their website. Unlike most, they have a video that will load right on their front page, whether you like it or not. Don't like it? Pause it or mute it. It's also graphically cluttered and too busy so, consequently, it does not load as fast as its peers.

Does anyone else remember when Deadspin was interesting and relevant? Deadspin blazed the trail for funny, high-traffic sports blogs. The writers of Kissing Suzy Kolber started off as regular Deadspin commentators.

Now? It sucks. There's just no other way to say it. All they care about now is sports gossip. Not even, "Will Ralph Friedgen get fired?" gossip, but, "Who was Miles Austin seen boinking?" kind of gossip. I'm just really scratching my head at the editorial direction they decided to take. And that actually goes for all of Gawker Media. I think Nick Denton, their founder and owner, over manages and doesn't really have a clue anymore. He came in and changed the blogosphere, but now it has passed him by.*

Dishonorable mention goes to Awful Announcing. There's so much promise in the concept of a blog devoted to, well, awful announcing. And the author provides solid info, releasing who will be commentating for which games in all the major sports.

But beyond that, it really falls flat. His take on every issue is so boring. He's the kind of guy who would write, "Personally, I think it's wrong that Mike Vick abused dogs. But on the other hand, he's served his time."

He also seems vaguely sexist and biased against female announcers. Nothing blatant, but so much of the site revolves around Pam Ward's alleged horribleness. But she's not horrible, and the things they snicker at her for saying wouldn't even cause them to glance at the TV if a guy said them. I happen to think Pam Ward is great. She's knowledgeable, enthusiastic, and it's obvious she didn't twirl her hair and tee-hee her way into the broadcast booth, if you follow me.

*Note: When linking Deadspin, I noticed it's the site that Fire Joe Morgan, one of my all-time favorite shuttered blogs, has chosen to resurrect themselves. This is would be like if Muhammad Ali announced his Parkinson's was cured and he won the Nobel Peace Prize on E! I hope the FJM guys are getting paid a lot. I'm having a hard time reconciling this incongruity.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 7:14 PM | Comments (1)

September 22, 2010

Feeling Blue: Boise State's Sad Reality

For a team that hasn't lost on the field in more than a year, the Boise State Broncos just cannot win off of it.

No, they do not have dozens of arrests on their record, nor have any NCAA investigators changed their mailing addresses to Boise. But in the intellectually corrupt court of college football opinion, the Broncos were judged well before their first kickoff of the season.

Boise State's impressive opening weekend win over Virginia Tech at a neutral-in-name-only Fedex Field seemed to announce our first real shot at a non-BCS conference school making the National Championship Game. But just five days later, the Hokies fell flat to 1-AA James Madison, deflating the Broncos' signature win in the process.

Just three weeks into the season, the debate about Boise has made several sharp turns. Immediately after the win in metro Washington, DC, the Broncos' critics tried to snuff out the afterglow by questioning just how good Virginia Tech is (a fair question, in hindsight). Others wrote off the significance of one game altogether, suggesting the true test of a team is facing challenges week-in, week-out.

In rebuttal, Boise's supporters proclaimed their team would easily contend for the championship of one of the lesser BCS conferences, such as the ACC or Big East. As a chaser, they cited Boise's wins in past seasons over Oregon, Oregon State, and Oklahoma. (On a side note, that Fiesta Bowl happened following the 2006 season, which for perspective, was Tim Tebow's freshman year. Why do we still site this as evidence of Boise's credentials?)

So what is Boise State really? Are they a blue-turfed figment of our college football zeitgeist? Are they an unfairly marginalized up-and-comer that threatens the status quo?

Clearly, the answer lies somewhere in between, though you'll be hard-pressed to find many college football fans who hold that moderate opinion. The truly baffling part of this debate is how little the events on the field seem to matter.

The sad truth is, most college football fans and media had their minds made up about Boise State before Labor Day. Either the prospect of a Bronco victory was insignificant in light of the rest of Boise's schedule or an affirmation of their bona fides.

But strangely, everyone seems to agree on the most unpredictable part of the equation: Boise State seems destined to go 12-0 and run its unbeaten streak to 25 games. And yet nobody wants to talk about what is playing out on the field.

Then what should we do with Boise three weeks into the season? Wait. The Broncos have 10 games left to establish their resume. The significance of those games, as well as the two already in the books, is yet to be determined, the same as everyone else.

College football is as contextual as any sport we follow in this country. In the NFL, a 45-0 win in any week is impressive even over the lowliest opponent. But on Saturdays, every game has a back story. Those 60 precious minutes spread roots in the months and even years that follow. And because subjective rankings are the majority factor in deciding who plays for the national championship, where that root system spreads matters.

And that brings us back to the cloud in Boise's silver lining. For as good as the Broncos have looked, they sit at No. 3 in the polls and could certainly be overtaken by the big names breathing down their necks. It is difficult to imagine the schedule and talent will ever line up any better for Boise (after all, what BCS-conference team wants to schedule them at this point?). Until something in their context changes, this peak may be where Boise maxes out as a program.

There is no more frustrating realization than finding that your best effort is not good enough. So while Boise State continues this wave of winning on the field, it may be doomed to larger defeats off of it.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 7:52 PM | Comments (7)

Save Some Drama For the Playoffs

The defending champion New York Yankees have managed to shake off the perennial rival Boston Red Sox in 2010. Big sigh of relief, right? Not so much. Their big leads have been evaporating quickly and extra innings often ensue with the knowledge that the second-place Tampa Bay Rays are close behind enough to water ski from New York's tail.

It used to be the Yankees and the Red Sox every year. With Boston hanging from a thread in the AL East, the Rays have proven to be far more than just an understudy. In 2008, when the Yankees dropped out of competitive play, the then-unheralded Rays dared challenge the defending champs from Beantown and won both the division and the ALCS from them in dramatic fashion. This season, the Rays instead find themselves battling the Bronx Bombers, once again showing no signs of backing down.

On September 13th, the Yankees went into Tropicana Field to play a three-game series against the Rays leading by a mere half-game in the standings. While the lesser team was still highly likely to qualify for the postseason via the wild card, both teams were after home-field and the division crown.

What followed were three truly mesmerizing contests that left not just the East Coast media, but true baseball fans clamoring for more. Luckily for them, more is coming, as a four-game rematch in the Bronx awaits. Of course, all this only serves as a prelude to what hopes to be an eventual battle in October with a World Series berth at stake.

Going into that series in Tampa Bay, the Yankees had been walked off twice in a three-game sweep by the AL West-leading Texas Rangers. The Rays had just been walked off once in the previous series in Toronto, but had also won a game in that series with clutch hitting in the ninth inning. The two teams continued their trend of playing heartburn baseball against one another.

The first game of the series was a regular masterpiece as C.C. Sabathia locked up against David Price, the top two left-handers in the American League. Neither one was willing to budge. By the eighth inning, both starters were out of the game, but neither team had scored. Third base was a ghost town, as no player from either team had reached that far.

Using various relief pitchers, both teams wiggled out of tight spots through extra innings until the bottom of the 11th. Reed Brignac stepped up to the plate only because starter Carl Crawford had been ejected on arguing a strike three call in the ninth. Brignac turned reliever Chad Gaudin's down-and-in offering into a beautiful tee shot that landed in a blissful gallery of fans in the right field bleachers, ending a dramatic game 1-0 and giving the Rays first place.

The following game saw the Yankees take a relatively safe 6-0 lead into the fifth with rookie pitcher Ivan Nova carving out Rays hitters up to that point. The kid lost his stuff quickly, though. Carlos Pena led-off with a homer. Then a double. An RBI single followed by John Jaso. A walk, an Evan Longoria single plated another, followed by a Matt Joyce RBI single. Finally at 6-4, the youngster Nova was removed by a late-arriving Joe Girardi. Reliever Boone Logan came on only to give up a Willie Aybar blast to left, giving the Rays a shocking 7-6 lead.

The Yanks quickly answered back with a Cano RBI double, and it was 7-7 from that point on. The Rays appeared to have a 2-out double in the ninth, but center fielder Curtis Granderson spoiled it with a spectacular diving catch. Jorge Posada then hit what may have been the longest home run of his career over the roof of the restaurant beyond the dead center field wall in the 10th.

The Rays threatened in the bottom half of the inning as Carl Crawford reached second base with one out against Mariano Rivera. Matt Joyce's fly ball to medium right seemed to assure Crawford of third base on a tag play, but September call-up Greg Golson revealed Ichiro-like arm strength, gunning down one of the game's fastest runners. It took a clothesline throw from right field to third base to end the game 8-7, and put the Yankees back in first.

While not quite as dramatic as the first two games, Tampa's Dan Johnson surprised with a pair of two-run homers to give Tampa Bay the division lead back. Both came at the expense of Phil Hughes and the second one came with two out in the seventh, proving to be the game winner in another 4-3 nail-biter.

After the teams played respective series against the Angels and Orioles, the Yankees had regained the half-game lead going into part two of this battle in the Bronx, which opened with more dramatics. Ivan Nova blew yet another big lead in the sixth, this time seeing a 4-0 lead turned into a 4-4 tie, as Girardi again waited too long to take out his doe-eyed rookie. This time it was Curtis Granderson hitting 2 home runs though, the second a mighty 3-run shot off the top of the foul pole in the seventh, giving the Yanks a decisive 8-4 cushion.

Rivera would provide a scare before finally wrapping up the game 8-6 on a night when the late George Steinbrenner was honored with a monument. With three more potential thrillers in the wings over the course of the week, no baseball fan is complaining.

These games have been reminiscent of both Yankees/Red Sox games past and even the old Yankees/Mariners division series of the 1990s (particularly the dome aspect in Tampa) in that both teams seem to rise up and get what they need the instant they fall behind, often leading to grueling stalemates and extra innings.

While there is no telling what Texas and Minnesota will do to these teams in the division series, because both teams are more than capable of pulling off upsets, one can only hope that the stage is about to be set for a New York/Tampa Bay ALCS packed with games just like the ones we've seen this past week. The Yankees and Rays simply bring out the best in themselves and each other.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 1:47 PM | Comments (0)

September 21, 2010

NFL Week 2 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* I don't think the Texans should let Steve Slaton return kicks any more. He was a disaster against Washington.

* Reggie Bush returned his Heisman Trophy this week. If every player who received prohibited financial assistance or violated eligibility rules by speaking with agents returned his Heisman, how many winners from the last 30 years would still have one? Half?

* Bob Costas did a nice short piece for NBC on the problem of concussions in the NFL. Research continues to link head injury to serious physical and psychological health problems later in life, and we just can't take these seriously enough.

* Did you catch Larry Johnson's run for -10 yards on Sunday? L.J. was great for a few years, but that was a long time ago. He's incredibly slow now. He's slower than molasses. Johnson looked like a cow, ambling around behind the line of scrimmage. A three-legged cow. A slow-motion replay of a three-legged cow, covered in molasses.

* Every time Clinton Portis opens his mouth, my opinion of him drops further. Portis has put together a great career in the NFL, but a thinker the man is not, and his complete lack of empathy is disturbing.

***

Bronco wide receiver Kenny McKinley, 23, was found dead Monday in an apparent suicide. It's strange, and occasionally a little creepy, when people become emotionally involved in the lives and deaths of people they don't know, but I don't see how you can not be affected by this one. McKinley isn't someone we felt like we knew; he wasn't even properly famous. He played in eight regular season games, mostly on special teams, and never caught a pass.

What everyone remembers about McKinley is his smile. Denver HC Josh McDaniels mentioned it. So did Steve Spurrier, McKinley's coach at South Carolina, who remembered the young wideout as one of his favorite players. Here's a guy who's 23, a young man, a gifted man with a lot of things going for him. But evidently he felt hopelessness. I don't want to speculate any further than that, but this is a tragedy that extends beyond the NFL, that should tear at the heartstrings of anyone with a pulse. Best wishes to the Broncos, the Gamecocks, and the friends and family of Mr. McKinley.

On to the Week 2 power rankings. Brackets indicate last week's rank.

1. New Orleans Saints [1] — Outplayed by the Niners and lucky to win. When you're +5 in turnovers, you should win by more than a field goal. The Saints were outgained by over 100 yards (actually 130) on Monday night. In 2009, New Orleans led the NFL with 403.8 yards and 31.9 points per game. After two weeks in 2010, they're averaging 297.5 yards and 19.5. That's against two good defenses, but we're talking about more than 100 yards per game, almost two touchdowns per game. In '09, New Orleans was held to 25 points or fewer in Week 4 (24 vs NYJ), and not again until December (17 vs DAL in Week 15). This year, they haven't topped 25 yet, and rank 21st in total offense. It's too early to panic, and I look for New Orleans to bounce back at home next week, but this is not the same team that tore through the league last season.

2. Indianapolis Colts [5] — Run defense is still a potential problem, but there is nothing like watching the Colts' offense in high gear. Peyton Manning leads the NFL in passing yards and TDs, with a 121.0 passer rating. Indianapolis responded perfectly to the Giants' defensive strategy, running at the dime (effectively) and using it to set up play-action. The game was over in the second quarter, as soon as Manning hit Dallas Clark for a 50-yard TD. Tony Dungy remarked that Indy HC Jim Caldwell was actually more concerned, following Week 1, about the offense than the defense. That may sound crazy, but I actually see his point. When the offense is at its best, the Colts can keep up with anyone. No matter what the defense is doing, the worst case scenario is a back-and-forth shootout, and Peyton always seem to find a way to win those games. The Colts have won plenty of games in which the defense couldn't stop anyone. It doesn't hurt, of course, when guys like Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, and Antoine Bethea play the way they did on Sunday night. Bethea gets a little better every year, and has quietly developed into one of the top safeties in the NFL.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers [4] — No, I'm not happy that a team ranking 31st in passing offense is slotted this high. Against Tennessee, the Steelers had just 21 net passing yards (43 in the air minus 22 from four sacks), picked up only 7 first downs, and didn't score an offensive touchdown. But they have a fantastic defense and a good running game, and they've beaten two good opponents, teams that have won by a combined 59 points in their other two games. They're also getting two key players back from injury this week: NT Casey Hampton and LT Max Starks. Pittsburgh is a league-best +6 in turnover differential.

4. Tennessee Titans [2] — Jeff Fisher's postgame press conference was unequivocal: Vince Young is still the starting QB. That's the right call: he should be. But Fisher was also right to bench VY in the second half and see if Kerry Collins could provide a spark. Benching a guy who isn't playing well didn't used to be a big deal. Now it's a headline-maker, a contrived storyline from people with small brains and too much time on their hands. The Titans had another great game defensively, but you can't win when you commit seven turnovers. That won't happen next week, I swear.

5. Green Bay Packers [7] — Let's keep everything in perspective by remembering that the Bills are terrible, but the Packers showed a lot to be excited about in Week 2. Aaron Rodgers continues to perform at a very high level, and he didn't take any sacks on Sunday. Green Bay's defense was terrific, Clay Matthews III in particular. Matthews leads the NFL with six sacks, three in each of the first two games. He and Washington's Brian Orakpo, both second-year OLBs with good pass-rushing skills, look like they could dominate this league for years to come. Already, both are special players.

6. Miami Dolphins [10] — They run well and play good defense. That's been a recipe for success throughout the history of the sport. The Dolphins have all eight home games remaining; they're already 2-0 on the road. Counterintuitively, it's the Miami defense that will really be tested next Sunday night against the Jets. Expectations will be low for the offense. If they score 20 points, it'll be a miracle. The Dolphins need to contain Mark Sanchez and LaDainian Tomlinson in a way New England wasn't able to, need to make sure that 14 or 15 points is enough to win.

7. Baltimore Ravens [3] — Joe Flacco did not play quite as badly on Sunday as his stat line suggests, but he was pretty bad. Baltimore's offensive line also appears to be an issue; Flacco was under pressure for most of the game against Cincinnati. Pressure or not, his decision-making needs to improve. The Ravens have plenty of playmakers on offense, but they're not scoring points. With Ray Rice, Derrick Mason, Anquan Boldin, Todd Heap, Willis McGahee, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh, this unit has no excuse for failure. The defense has performed beautifully, yet to allow an offensive TD this season. Baltimore is -6 in turnover differential, the worst margin in the league. Part of that is Flacco, but it's also where they miss Ed Reed. The Ravens can still stop people, but you can't replace that kind of playmaker.

8. Houston Texans [11] — Matt Schaub and Donovan McNabb combined for 923 yards this weekend, the second-highest single-game total in NFL history (behind the legendary 1986 duel between Ken O'Brien and Dan Marino). Schaub alone passed for 497 yards, the 12th-highest total ever. As pass-oriented as today's game is, and as many passing records as have fallen, it is incredible that Norm Van Brocklin's 59-year-old single-game record for passing yards (554) still stands. Houston is last in the NFL in pass defense, yielding 411 yards per game and a 113.4 passer rating.

9. San Diego Chargers [13] — Antoine Cason had sort of a big game against Jacksonville: six solo tackles and a forced fumble (recovered by the Chargers), plus two interceptions and another two passes knocked down. Cason, a third-year player, was elevated to a starting role when the team traded Antonio Cromartie. Philip Rivers threw for 334 yards this weekend, and Mike Tolbert rushed for 2 TDs in relief of Ryan Mathews, but the San Diego defense was the truly impressive unit, shutting down Maurice Jones-Drew (31 yds, 2.6 avg, lost fumble) and getting David Garrard benched (4 INTs, 62.7 rating).

10. New York Jets [12] — The Jets played well offensively and defensively against New England, even minus the services of Darrelle Revis for most of the game. Revis is a superb player, a game-changer, and the Jets will miss him if his injury continues to be a problem, but this defense is so good it can lose its two best players (Kris Jenkins and Revis) and still shut down a team like the Patriots. Here's something weird, though: the Jets' defense has the worst third-down percentage in the league this year, giving up 16 conversions in 30 tries, an abysmal 53% rate.

11. New England Patriots [8] — Their pass defense looks like a real issue, doesn't it? The Bengals torched them in the second half of the opener, and Mark Sanchez lit them up in Week 2. The Patriots' lack of running game, a deficiency they've covered up in the past with defense and Tom Brady, seems like a problem they finally need to address. If you can't run, you can't control the ball, so you risk tiring out your defense, and you can't reliably hold leads. That's caused problems for this team in the past, and doesn't look likely to change in 2010.

12. Cincinnati Bengals [17] — The Ravens beat the Jets, who beat the Patriots, who beat the Bengals, who beat the Ravens. It's impossible to rank everyone ahead of who they've beaten. The Cincinnati pass rush, invisible in Week 1, was back for Week 2. One sack is nothing to write home about, but the pressure was there, and it led directly to turnovers and three-and-outs. The Bengals got a huge win this weekend, but here are points of concern: (1) Quarterback/center communication. There were multiple problems this weekend, and those need to be addressed before next Sunday. (2) Jermaine Gresham is already a good NFL receiver, but he can't block. That's important for tight ends, and Gresham got schooled against Baltimore. (3) 3/18 third down conversions won't cut it. The passing game has shown flashes of brilliance, but lots of inconsistency. Carson Palmer's numbers this season (2 TD, 1 INT, 79.1 rating) are not impressive.

13. Minnesota Vikings [6] — Last season, readers thought I was underrating the Vikings, who had a great record but had played a schedule full of cupcakes. This year, I'm sure some fans will think it's outrageous that I'm ranking an 0-2 team higher than the 2-0 Bears and Bucs and Chiefs, higher than some teams that looked great in Week 2. Honestly, though, I think this is too low. The Vikings have lost two close games to good teams. Sure, they miss Sidney Rice, and the passing game is a gigantic question mark right now. They have a good defense and Adrian Peterson. If they lose to the Lions at home, then you can start to panic.

14. Atlanta Falcons [16] — Dominated the Cardinals, obviously. My favorite stat from the game is the first downs. Arizona gained 11, which is low but not crazily so, though the Cards went 0/8 on third downs. The Falcons gained 33 first downs, which is nuts, actually more than 11 teams have picked up all season.

15. Washington Redskins [15] — Blew a 17-point second half lead, but made big plays on both offense and defense and showed that they need to be taken seriously. I said this last season, too, but it's time for the NFL to prevent head coaches from calling timeout a millisecond before a play begins, so that kickers have already sent the ball flying. If the league is going to enforce rules against "excessive celebration" because it's unseemly and unsportsmanlike, this one is a no-brainer. Rookie OT Trent Williams sprained his knee in the fourth quarter, but an MRI showed no structural damage, and Williams is unlikely to miss significant time.

16. Dallas Cowboys [9] — I think there's too much pressure to win, and it's making the team play tight. Also, and I freely admit this is a pretty far-out conspiracy theory, it seems plausible to me that offensive coordinator Jason Garrett is intentionally undermining head coach Wade Phillips so he can get Phillips' job. How else do you explain Garrett's loony play-calling?

17. Kansas City Chiefs [19] — Brandon Flowers made all the highlight shows this week for his touchdown on a Seneca Wallace INT return. Flowers ranked 4th in the NFL last season in pass deflections. The year before, he had over 100 interception return yards as a rookie. Flowers is one of the young players who is helping turn Kansas City from a joke into a serious opponent. Matt Cassel's poor performance has to be a concern. I love Ryan Succop, but the Chiefs need to start scoring touchdowns.

18. Chicago Bears [22] — Mike Martz is getting a lot of praise right now, and deservedly so — Jay Cutler leads the NFL in passer rating — but let's not pretend Martz has been a consistently successful offensive guru. He's been wandering in the wilderness for more than half a decade, with very little success since Marshall Faulk's decline. Chicago's defense, buoyed by the return of Brian Urlacher, is also playing better than it did last season. The Bears host Green Bay next Monday, with first place in the NFC North on the line.

19. New York Giants [14] — Got totally dominated and outplayed on Sunday night. David Diehl was painfully outclassed by Freeney. Eli Manning committed three turnovers and Brandon Jacobs threw his helmet into the stands, almost losing it permanently. Joseph Addai and Donald Brown tore apart the Giants' pass-oriented defensive packages, and Peyton Manning moved the ball pretty much at will. The game was a disaster, and this team's weaknesses are becoming apparent pretty quickly. Jacobs, who has had two good seasons in five years, reportedly will seek a trade. I wouldn't want him. There's no team in the NFL Jacobs is good enough to start for, and you can't help your team by adding a backup who thinks he should be a starter.

20. Philadelphia Eagles [20] — Michael Vick obviously has played well for the Eagles, well enough that Kevin Kolb really needs to play impressively in his return, but Vick also leads the NFL in sacks taken, with 9 in just 58 pass attempts, an atrocious 13.4% sack rate. By comparison, last year Ben Roethlisberger had the worst rate of any full-time starter, at 9.0%. Aaron Rodgers, who took an unforgivable number of sacks early in the season, finished at 8.5%. Even JaMarcus Russell came in at just 11.8%. Andy Reid's decision to hand the starting job back to Kolb is questionable to say the least, but a professional QB simply can't get taken down once every 7.5 dropbacks. It kills drives (and quarterbacks). The Eagles have allowed more points this season (59) than any other team in the NFL.

21. San Francisco 49ers [21] — Overcame an awful start to put a scare in the defending champs. Frank Gore had a huge game (112 rush yds, 5.6 avg, 56 rec yds, 2 TD), and Alex Smith looked positively Elway-esque on the game-tying drive. I realize that's sacreligious, but Smith's use of his arm and feet to direct San Francisco downfield reminded me of The Drive. I know people have said this before, but the 49ers need to seriously consider letting Smith work out of the shotgun consistently. He's a different player from that formation: a good one. The 49ers are the best team in the league at pulling guards.

22. Arizona Cardinals [18] — Ugly loss, but there's reason for optimism concerning the continuing development of Tim Hightower. The Cardinals played their first two games on the road, and a 34-point loss counts the same in the standings as any other; they're 1-1, tied for the division lead. Arizona committed 10 penalties for 109 yards, including one that called back a TD return by LaRod Stephens-Howling and 8 for Falcon first downs. The Cardinals have given up 19 third down conversions this season, worst in the NFL. Twelve other teams have given up less than half that many.

23. Denver Broncos [25] — They don't seem to miss Brandon Marshall. Maybe in a Kyle Orton offense, you don't need incredibly gifted wide receivers. It would be nice to see the rushing game pick up a little, though. Knowshon Moreno is averaging 2.8 yards per carry.

24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [28] — If they beat the Steelers, they'll get plenty of respect. For now, they squeaked by the Browns and Panthers. Josh Freeman threw two touchdown passes on Sunday, but he only completed half his passes, and Cadillac Williams averaged under two yards a carry. The defense played well.

25. Jacksonville Jaguars [24] — Not as bad as they looked in Week 2, when they managed to commit 6 turnovers on the road in San Diego. Maurice Jones-Drew may be healthy, and two weeks is much too early to panic (don't sell low, fantasy owners), but he hasn't been an impact player so far this season, and that needs to change if the Jaguars want to avoid a top-five draft pick next April.

26. Seattle Seahawks [23] — Last week I wrote, "Next week's game at Denver, against a former divisional foe, should help show whether the 'Hawks are for real." Evidently they're not. 36-year-old Lawyer Milloy, who I didn't realize still played in the NFL, led Seattle in tackles on Sunday.

27. Detroit Lions [27] — They look better. They almost came back in Week 2, and they arguably should have won the opener against Chicago. But they still can't close out wins, can't steal the games they have a chance to win or hold onto the ones they should win. Ndamukong Suh had a monster game against the Eagles. He and Kyle Vanden Bosch make this defense legitimate. Jahvid Best had a ridiculous game (in a good way) this weekend.

28. Cleveland Browns [29] — Their offense actually seems better this year. The Browns probably won't have a good record this year — they've just lost a pair of close games against two of the weaker opponents on their schedule — but they seem more competitive, visibly improved from the last two seasons. The defense ranks in the top half of the league in both yards and points allowed.

29. Carolina Panthers [26] — Matt Moore, who boasts the worst passer rating in the league (41.8) apparently has lost the starting QB job to rookie Jimmy Clausen. I don't know what Clausen has done to deserve that kind of punishment.

30. Buffalo Bills [30] — Worst offense in the NFL. After two weeks, Buffalo ranks dead last in points, yards, and yards per play. If your fantasy league includes defense, go with anyone who plays the Bills.

31. Oakland Raiders [31] — When your secret weapon is Bruce Gradkowski, maybe your team isn't so good. When the secret weapon works, maybe you're at home against the Rams. Darren McFadden and Louis Murphy were productive this weekend. There are some promising young players in Oakland this season.

32. St. Louis Rams [32] — There actually are some good players here. Everybody knows about Steven Jackson, but what about second-year LB James Laurinaitis, who had 9 tackles and a sack against Oakland? Last year, Laurinaitis finished with 2 sacks, 2 interceptions, and over 100 solo tackles. It will be difficult to evaluate Sam Bradford until he has someone to throw to. Repeatedly throwing to Jackson is not a realistic formula for success.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 7:39 PM | Comments (4)

Five Storylines For 2010-11 NHL Season

NHL training camps have just gotten underway. That means new teammates, new strategies, and new expectations — for better or worse. Some teams have to integrate new coaches, while others are dealing with expectations and the pressure that comes with winning or disappointing. Here are the top five storylines heading into the 2010-11 NHL season:

5. Who will be in San Jose's crease?

When the 2010 Stanley Cup playoffs ended, most hockey observers recognized that the San Jose Sharks would only be able to keep one of Patrick Marleau and Evgeni Nabokov. Doug Wilson made his choice public shortly before re-signing Marleau, and Evgeni Nabokov went to the KHL. Antero Niittymaki was brought in as a stop-gap solution, but then the Sharks surprised everyone by signing former Chicago nemesis Antti Niemi. Now the Sharks have two semi-proven goalies, but no real promises as to the future. Despite the Stanley Cup win, Niemi's playoff run was filled with ups and downs, while Niittymaki hasn't been a proven starter his whole career. Between the two of them, something's gotta give, and the Sharks are hoping it'll fall in the win column.

4. What can Stevie Y achieve in Tampa Bay?

It sure didn't take long for new Tampa Bay Lightning GM to put his stamp on the team. From revamping the Lightning blueline to new coach Guy Boucher to getting former all-star Simon Gagne, there hasn't been this type of good mojo around the Bolts for years. However, good feelings can go so far, especially if the losses start to pile up. Tampa Bay has the forward talent to score and enough blue-line horses to play steady, though probably not spectacular, defense. It can all easily fall apart for the Bolts, and while no one is denying that Yzerman has done a world of positive, results matter — and the jury's still out.

3. Can surprise teams keep up the momentum?

No one expected the Colorado Avalanche or Phoenix Coyotes to make the playoffs, let alone put up a pretty good fight along the way, especially during transition years. The Avs and the Coyotes are in two different situations: Colorado's young core is maturing, while Phoenix is mixing in blue-chip prospects with veterans playing Dave Tippett's strict defensive system. There are plenty of reasons for either team to regress, from Colorado's young players hitting growing pains to Phoenix's thin margin of victory ebbing away for a variety of reasons. The goal, then, is for Colorado to ensure upward progress and for Phoenix to successfully integrate young players into the veteran lineup.

2. Will Washington get over the hump?

The honeymoon is over in Washington. A few years ago, Caps fans caught on to the fervor of Alex Ovechkin and Rock the Red. Now these Stanley Cup contenders have to deal with expectations, especially after blowing a 3-1 series lead against the Montreal Canadiens. At this point, the talent is all there, and it really comes down to the system. The Montreal series showed a lack of proper adjustments by Washington coach Bruce Boudreau, and the Caps' fire-wagon style may not always work in a long series, especially against a hot goaltender. On the other hand, great teams usually need to suffer through an embarrassment or two before reaching their peak. This may not be a make-or-break year for the Capitals young core, but it just might be for Boudreau.

1. Will change be good or bad for Chicago?

Some level of change is good for every Stanley Cup winner. Dumping key scoring depth and your goaltending situation? Well, that might be a little different. The Chicago Blackhawks fell victim to the salary cap, and gone are key players that made a difference, such as scorer Kris Versteeg, tough forward Dustin Byfgulien, penalty killer Brent Sopel, and Stanley Cup goalie Antti Niemi, among others. The Hawks have youth chomping at the bit, but the roster is top heavy now, and the Hawks will have to adjust their game to match their new depth chart. However, this could also be the change that spurs them to success. One year from now, we'll know if this was a blessing in disguise or a necessary evil.

Posted by Mike Chen at 5:25 PM | Comments (0)

September 20, 2010

London Calling

With the NFL season in full swing and fans across America working in new dents on the cushions of their sofas, I thought it might be a good time to look ahead on the schedule and further examine the one game this year that requires team personnel to bring their passports.

The international game has been held in London's Wembley Stadium since 2007, when the New York Giants beat the Miami Dolphins, 13-10. This year, the matchup is between the 49ers and the Denver Broncos. The games have always been sellouts, but that's essentially what I feel like the NFL is doing here — selling out. Hear me out on this one.

See, to me, what Roger Goodell and his cronies would call "branding" or "marketing" the game to an international audience, I would call disrespecting the fans here at home. Not to mention the players and coaches who haven't exactly given a perfect report card after being so "fortunate" to have played across the pond in the past. But I'll get to that later.

For now, let's focus on the fact that we love football here in America. We love it so much that it is the most popular sport, making the most money (the Shield pulls in billions, with a "B," annually), and earning the highest TV ratings. That's why greed, hidden behind a thin veil of "branding," seems like it's at the forefront of the International game. Europe already has their sport and it's the other football. They may gobble up the tickets for the annual NFL game, but they do so as a novelty (think the World Cup coming to America). No one should really expect Europeans to be swapping shin guards and 0-0 ties for helmets and Hail Marys any time soon.

In fact, remember NFL Europa? Neither do I. The talent pool was quite shallow (the NFL used it as a spring developmental league) and the league folded in 2007 because it was losing $30 million a season. Europeans have their sport and we have ours. Even the added possibility that Mike Singletary will pull his pants down at halftime again shouldn't be enough to entice this year's crowd to convert to diehards.

Besides the sport belonging to us, my other issue is that it's a regular season game. Now, I know the NHL and MLB have hosted international regular season games in recent years (while the NBA has stuck to preseason only), but the NFL is a different beast. The teams play just eight home games during the regular season, as opposed to 41 in hockey and 81 in baseball. It would be perfectly understandable for an NFL season-ticket holder to be miffed when a team shifts one of its home dates to an overseas venue. This is how the fan gets disrespected in the states.

But good ol' Rog has decided that, well, he doesn't care about that. "The negative is taking the home game away from the fans," Goodell has been quoted as saying. Awesome. So the fans get one less game and the league gets to keep counting their money. The classic win-win ... oh wait ... scratch that.

And it's not that much better for the players and coaches, who have been critical of the extensive travel involved during the middle of the season. I'm sure even a first-class flight with an iPod and the latest "Jersey Shore" DVDs can be draining when it's headed thousands of miles and many time-zones away. Furthermore, Saints coach Sean Payton was critical of the "sloppy" field conditions at Wembley Stadium in 2009 and the logistics of playing a "home" game in London.

So if the players, the coaches, and the season-ticket holders don't like it, why do it? Well, of course, if you are sitting in your air-conditioned house, watching on the 64-inch HDTV, then this doesn't seem to really be a thorn in your side. Additionally, if you are the league, you like expanding the brand while profiting hand over fist.

That's why the annual International game is likely here to stay. In fact, the 2010 season was supposed to have a second game overseas, but it was dropped at the last minute because of the economy and ongoing labor negotiations. It's really too bad. I was looking forward to some bloke in the Mother Land getting completely pissed (for you Yanks, that's getting drunk) at a Seahawks/Chiefs game and wondering aloud, "Why don't we do this more often?"

Posted by Justin Shagrin at 8:16 PM | Comments (7)

Baseball Needs to Say Yes to Instant Replay

If there were ever a climax for the instant replay debate in baseball, it came on the night of September 15, 2010, when Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter pulled a "Tom Cruise" when batting in the top of the seventh inning.

With one out, and the Yankees down a run, Jeter squared to bunt on the first pitch of the at-bat. It was an inside pitch, and Jeter screamed in agony as the ball bounced back on to the field. He was awarded first base. However, video evidence clearly showed that the ball hit the knob of the bat, never touching Jeter's hand.

To make matters worse, Rays manager Joe Maddon was ejected for trying to do good for the baseball community. Furthermore, Curtis Granderson immediately followed with a 2-run home run, giving the Yankees the lead. Luckily, the Rays ended up rightfully winning the game.

A day later, 24 managers were surveyed, asking if they thought baseball needed instant replay. Eighteen said baseball needed replay, just two opposed, and four decided not to comment.

Almost a year ago, the Twins got screwed in the first round of the playoffs when Joe Mauer hit a ball down the left field line. It was called foul, but video evidence showed that it was indeed fair.

It becomes clearer everyday that baseball needs replay.

It wouldn't be very difficult. Simply put, an umpire in a booth next to the press box and put a television screen in front of him. If the umpires decide that a call should be reviewed, they would go to a phone that would be placed on the field, ask the umpire in the booth what the correct call is, and the right call will prevail. No call will ever be missed.

Sitting at home watching the game, we constantly see replays revealing missed calls by the umpire. Why should fans have access to essential evidence that the umpire do not?

One of the counter-arguments would be that the game would be slowed down. Using Wednesday night as an example, it took about three minutes for the umpires to discuss the call and then argue with Joe Maddon. If replay were instated, it would have taken 10 or 15 seconds to determine that Jeter should have been out. Less time, no arguing. If that isn't your objective, we have a problem.

Now, it should be noted that baseball has made steps to advance. A couple years ago, Major League Baseball threw us replay lobbyists a bone when they gave umpires the ability to look at video evidence for home run calls.

But here is my question: why stop at home runs? We have the technology to get every call right. If you care enough to get home run calls right, why do you not care about getting other calls right?

With all the new video camera angles and high-definition footage, more inconsistencies are being uncovered. Instead of fighting over these inconsistencies, let's tackle them by using the same technology that prompted the problem. Say yes to replay, say yes to change, say yes to the right answer.

Posted by Jess Coleman at 11:48 AM | Comments (1)

September 19, 2010

How Virginia Tech Screwed Boise State

Boise State started the year with a 33-30 victory over Virginia Tech that made a lot of people think that this would finally be the year they would have a legitimate shot at being selected to the National Championship Game.

After week one of the college football season, it seemed at least parts of the Associated Press were convinced. In the preseason poll, Boise State received one first-place vote and was ranked third, a good, strong healthy sign. After beating Virginia Tech, they had eight, narrowing the gap considerably between first-place Alabama and themselves. But Ohio State was still in the middle, with less first-place votes, but still number two.

Then disaster struck. In week two, Boise State was idle and Virginia Tech was playing the (you've never heard of them) James Madison Dukes. It was a game they should have won by four touchdowns. They lost 21-16. The Hokies dropped completely from the ranks of any poll and sadly, Boise State suffered, as well.

Remaining at number three, their number of first place votes plummeted back down to third and the distance between first and third was even higher than it had been in the preseason. It remains to be seen, but that loss to James Madison may have completely ruined Boise State's chances at the National Championship Game.

In April, I wondered if this could be the year for Boise State. In that article, I outlined five situations that would help Boise State along the way to the big game. Let us revisit those.

1. The Broncos will need to win the rest of their games.

Obvious, but so far so good as they destroyed Wyoming on the road. The real test will come next week against Oregon State.

Chances it will happen: 75%

2. The Beavers and Hokies must have good seasons.

This is the problem the Broncos are running into. The Hokies look pretty rough. They need to pull it together and win the ACC or at least contend. Oregon State has already lost to TCU, but look forward to Oregon State's matchups with their ranked conference foes, Arizona, USC, Stanford and Oregon. If they can win two of those, that would help the Broncos considerably. If both teams end the season unranked, Boise State has a very slim chance of being invited to Glendale.

Chances it will happen: 15%

3. There cannot be a plethora of unbeaten teams standing in the way.

TCU looks to have just as much claim as Boise State to the ranks of top two teams in the nation. A TCU loss at Utah on November 6 would help the Broncos a lot, but that would mean Utah would probably be undefeated, as well, having already beaten Pittsburgh. Utah may acquire losses later in the season at Air Force, at Notre Dame, or perhaps against BYU, but they don't look so hot at the moment.

Chances it will happen: 60%

4. Without a conference championship game, the Big Ten and Pac-10 will both need to boast champions with two losses. The Big East, as less of a powerhouse, can have a champion with one loss.

I'm not sure if this one remains true. With USC's rule breaking, they won't be in the way, but Oregon is worrisome. A one-loss Oregon team sounds pretty solid to me.

In the Big Ten, Iowa and Penn State have already lost, and Wisconsin looks weak. Ohio State is the real challenge. Finding two losses for them won't be easy.

Chances it will happen: 35%

5. Either the Big 12 or the SEC championship games will need an upset.

Undefeated Texas or Oklahoma will be a no-brainer in the National Championship Game. Those teams with one loss are not a bad idea, either. The Big 12 poses a challenge in that Nebraska looks really good. If they end up with a one-loss season and play Texas or Oklahoma with a one-loss season for the Big 12 title, both teams sound pretty good to me in a National Championship Game against Alabama, Florida, or Ohio State.

Alabama has a really tough road. They play at Arkansas, at South Carolina, at LSU, and at home against Florida and Auburn. The SEC needs to beat each other up big time and that could happen. If Alabama escapes with one loss with that schedule and wins the SEC title game, they'll still be in the National Championship Game (unless Ohio State and a Big 12 team go undefeated).

Chances it will happen: 20%

What Boise State has going for it at this point in time is that they were ranked really high right out of the gate. A number three ranking helps considerably since polls are taken into account by the BCS computers. What I believe will unfortunately happen is Boise State will drop when power conference teams remain undefeated. Texas, Oregon, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Florida all have the potential to jump Boise State in the upcoming weeks, even if Boise State continues to win.

As of today, the chances Boise State will actually be playing for the national championship is 10%. And they can blame the vast majority of that on Virginia Tech.

Posted by Andrew Jones at 6:15 PM | Comments (1)

September 18, 2010

K-Rod's Taking One For His Mother

His season in hell has taken a twist or two since Francisco Rodriguez's only too-well publicized arrest and, it turned out, decommissioning for the season thanks to a torn ligament incurred while punching out his common-law wife's father. The twists only begin with Rodriguez ducking time in the calaboose.

A judge ruled against jail despite K-Rod's having sent the lady some 56 text messages, most of which prodded for a reconciliation of sorts, several of which accused her family of manipulating her while exploiting his baseball wealth, and all of which violated a court restraining order.

He returned to court Tuesday, slapped with a fresh charge of criminal contempt piling onto the mess that has already put his life with the New York Mets in serious jeopardy. He left court with the understanding that he would see the inside of a cell if he violated it again.

A few further details of the post-11 August loss (to the Colorado Rockies) outburst that started the whole mess in the first place have seeped forth. It may have been one thing for a temperamental pitcher coming off a bad outing to deck his common-law father-in-law, the grandfather of his children, after the older man ordered him to man up and pitch better. But it may have been something else again if Rodriguez swung in defense of his mother, who also happened to be in the Citi Field family room on the night in question.

Rodriguez hadn't taken his lumps in that game — he wasn't even in the game. There has since been whispering that, while the rest of the club had pretty much surrendered hope after the All-Star Break, held their tongues, and put on a professional face that some might consider an unrealistic mask, it still got to Rodriguez — who spent most of his pre-Mets career going where few of his teammates have gone before (the postseason, that is) — a little more deeply.

But he returned to the clubhouse after that loss and, when Carlos Pena (no known relation to the ballplayer of the same name) jabbed at him verbally, Rodriguez's mother stood up for her son, admirably enough. According to the New York Daily News, it was when Pena ordered the woman to shut up that K-Rod lost it entirely.

He thundered to the old man that neither he nor anyone else talks to his mami that way, and proceeded to support that assertion with a shot in the head.

No one pretends Rodriguez has lacked for issues of self control since he signed with the Mets, after a distinguished, record-setting career with the Los Angeles Angels that only began when he came up, seemingly from nowhere, and made his bones as a postseason assassin during the Angels' staggering run to their first World Series ring almost a decade ago.

But even the least composed of men would seem to have a right to stand up for his mother. It's one thing to get into your own grille over a night on the job that isn't quite the kind of night for which you earn your keep, but it's something else again to get into your mother's grille when she's doing precisely what you would do yourself, once hopes, should it be your child under siege.

These are times in which even parents get thrown under the proverbial bus when their children find themselves cornered and desperate. Issues though he has, there is something disturbingly admirable about the idea that Francisco Rodriguez might have put everything he has on the line and maybe even thought, subconsciously, the hell with all that, on behalf of sticking up for his mami.

For a little perspective, compare Rodriguez's scenario to this: Three Mets didn't join the team when they visited Walter Reed Army Medical Center during the Mets' recent stand against the Washington Nationals. These are the reported reasons: Luis Castillo said he gets squeamish in the hospital; Carlos Beltran begged off because he was already committed to a meeting involving a Puerto Rican high school he's building; Oliver Perez simply replied that it was none of anyone's business why he didn't go.

Those three may not lose half of what Rodriguez stands to lose, on or off the field, whether or not they remain Mets beyond this season. (Pace Mike Lupica, it is reasonable to assume that a man who'd stand up for his mami, even against his common-law father-in-law, is a man who would not be squeamish, prior committed, or otherwise talked out of visiting the wounded in a military hospital were he allowed to continue team activities.)

In theory, K-Rod can recover his reputation and his career with only a few small contortions, depending on what becomes of the Mets' bid to convert his contract to non-guaranteed or the Players' Association's bid to thwart the Mets. Recovering his household may prove a lot more arduous.

His estranged common-law wife and her father have legal counsel, and enough of the drift of the now-contentious text messages expressed Rodriguez's anxiety that he has lost his children. If the Daily News has the background right, he would be something less than human if he wasn't trying to reconcile the peculiar idea that standing up for your mother can cost you your children.

Compared to that, reconciling a baseball job, if not a baseball career, is at least as easy as K-Rod once made dispatching an enemy lineup appear.

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 4:11 PM | Comments (0)

September 16, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 2

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Pittsburgh @ Tennessee (-6)

In their first game without the suspended Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers rode their defense and their ground game to a hard-fought 15-9 overtime win over the Falcons. Rashard Mendenhall's 50-yard walk-off touchdown run won it for the Steelers.

"This franchise has won games before without Roethlisberger," said Mike Tomlin. "Most notably Super Bowl XL."

But right now, this team is not about Roethlisberger. It's about Dennis Dixon. Three games from now, we'll welcome Ben back with an open bathroom door. Sure, people are quick to criticize Ben's behavior, but don't forget he's a two-time Super Bowl champion. He may be 'flicted,' but he's also afflicted, with a condition known as 'restless leg-acy syndrome."

The last time the Steelers visited LP Field, the Titans came away with a 31-14 win, and Titans running back/tub of lard LenDale White taunted the visitors by stomping on a Terrible Towel. That image is undoubtedly burned into the minds of the Steelers, but Jeff Fisher believes it won't be an issue on Sunday.

"LenDale could have made a better decision," Fisher said. "Lord knows, there are better uses for a Terrible Towel, like as a napkin, or, perchance, to wipe down a potential crime scene."

But the 'Smash' of 'Smash and Dash' is no longer here, which makes Chris Johnson's appetite for yardage even stronger. And speaking of 'appetite,' did you see our mascot, 'T-Rac,' devour a cheerleader last week? That was amazing. I guess Carolina Panther girls aren't the only ones bestowed with the honor of eating a cheerleader."

Chris Johnson will find yards tough to come by on the ground. That is, until he catches a swing pass and gallops 55-yards for a score.

Tennessee wins, 19-17.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-5)

Believe it or not, the Bucs are tied with the Saints atop the NFC South, undefeated after last week's tight 17-14 win over Cleveland. Sure, the season is young, infantile if you will, but Raheem Morris has Tampa playing with a purpose.

"Heck," Morris said, "I didn't think we could reach the top of the South so soon. Realistically, our goal was to be there much later, like in 2012."

I feel good about the direction the team is taking. And I feel good about being one of the youngest coaches in the NFL, as well as the only coach in the league who could go straight from coaching to rapping without having to change names."

Starting quarterback Matt Moore suffered a concussion in Sunday's loss to the Giants, succumbing to New York's fearsome defensive front. If Moore can't go, rookie Jimmy Clausen will get the start.

"There was a slew of concussions last week," said John Fox, "and quarterbacks, in particular, took a beating. There was a doozy of woozies, and Moore was on the short end of a brain scramble. Whomever starts, Moore or Clausen, will be short on inexperience. In situations like this, the Doobie Brothers' 'It Keeps You Runnin' is always a soothing tune, because I know DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart will take the pressure off my quarterback. 'Jesus is Just Alright,' and so are we."

Somebody cue "What a Fool Believes."

Panthers win, 22-14.

Kansas City @ Cleveland (-2½)

After Monday night's 21-14 over the Chargers, the Chiefs are basking in the afterglow of the outright AFC West lead. With losses by the Raiders and Broncos, the Chiefs took sole possession of the West lead with a gutsy effort in the driving rain at Arrowhead Stadium.

"It wasn't the prettiest victory," said Matt Cassel, "but we'll take it and others like it, assuming the opportunity presents itself. That's fancy USC-grad talk for 'we got lucky.'"

Anyway, Chiefs football isn't predicated on offensive firepower. It's geared more towards getting a lead and protecting the lead. See, there's the 'West Coast Offense,' and then there's the 'Midwest Coast Offense.' We prefer the latter."

The fallout from the Browns 17-14 loss to the Bucs last week was immediate. Quarterback Jake Delhomme is in a walking boot, resulting from a sprained ankle suffered in the game while throwing one of his 2 interceptions.

"This is something we expected," said Eric Mangini. "Jake's 'gotten the boot' before, and he'll probably get it again. That boot should keep Jake's ankle immobilized so he can't do further damage. We're hoping for a medical breakthrough that will bless us with a product that can do the same for his right arm."

It's appropriate that against the Chiefs, Seneca Wallace gets the start. Wallace scores on a five-yard run and tosses a TD pass to Josh Cribbs.

Browns win, 22-17.

Miami @ Minnesota (-5½)

After last Thursday's 14-9 loss in New Orleans, the Vikings have had a solid 10 days to regroup, plenty of time to game-plan for the Dolphins and rest for the home-opener at Mall of America Field.

"We should be well-prepared," Brett Favre said. "Ten days is an eternity, and plenty of time to contemplate retirement, which I can easily be talked out of. As you may know, I left New Orleans after the game and headed to Mississippi for my grandson's christening. And it only took one Viking to drag me back — me."

It's one thing to be christened with ordinary water. Hopefully, my grandson will be able to experience the joy of being christened with Gatorade."

The Dolphins will likely find it difficult to run the ball against the Vikings stingy rush defense, so the 'Fins and quarterback Chad Henne will look to Brandon Marshall for offense. Marshall has yet to score in a Dolphin uniform, but may find pay-dirt against a Minnesota secondary dealing with numerous injuries.

"There's only one person who can stop Brandon Marshall," Marshall explained, "and that's Brandon Marshall. And, more often than not, my ego gets the best of me."

Adrian Peterson rushes for 126 yards and 2 scores, and the Viking blitzes bother Chad Henne, thus limiting Marshall's effectiveness.

Minnesota wins, 27-20.

Arizona @ Atlanta (-7)

After a stinging 15-9 overtime loss to the Steelers last week, the Falcons host the Cardinals, 17-13 winners in St. Louis. To avoid an 0-2 hole, the Falcons will look for a win in the Georgia Dome, where they were 6-2 last year.

"There's nothing like home cooking," said matt Ryan, "unless you're talking about a meth lab, of which there are several in the Atlanta area."

Anyway, we'll certainly need to have our game faces on. But first things first. With the Cardinals and Falcons in the same building, it's a perfect opportunity for another show of solidarity, as players from both teams can come together, say 'the heck with the index finger,' and give the owners the 'Dirty Bird.'"

Ken Whisenhunt was pleased with the play of Derek Anderson, and the Cardinals will look to attack the Falcons downfield with Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston.

"We'll have to play our best to beat the Falcons," Whisenhunt said. "They're tough at home, and hungry for a win. Anytime Arizona and Atlanta face each other, you can expect both to bring their 'A' game."

Now it will take a full team effort to beat Atlanta. We'll need contributions from everyone, from LaRod Stephens-Howling to Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. You'll notice one glaring absence from our list of players with hyphenated names. That's because Matt Leinart-Sucks is now a Houston Texan."

Falcons win, 26-23.

Philadelphia @ Detroit (+3)

Head trauma is all the rage in Philly, with Kevin Kolb and Stewart Bradley suffering concussions last week against the Packers. But heads are spinning in Detroit as well, after Calvin Johnson's apparent touchdown catch was nullified by the correct (but wrong) interpretation of a rule that clearly needs, ironically, further review.

"If you look closely at the replay," said Jim Schwartz, "you'll see Calvin catch the ball with two hands, with two feet inbounds before falling, where two knees, his rear end, and elbow, and one hand land inbounds. What more does he need? If there would have been any other body part involved, he would have been charged with indecent exposure."

I certainly feel for Calvin. Much like Javon Walker a few years ago, he was robbed. But I suspect 'Megatron' will take it in stride. He's been screwed before, like on Draft Day 2007."

If Kolb is not cleared to play on Sunday, Michael Vick, who subbed admirably against the Packers, will start. Vick passed for 175 yards and rushed for 103, flashing the skills that made him one of the National Football League's most feared players.

"Don't forget," said Andy Reid, "Mike was equally feared by the American Kennel Club. But that Michael Vick has long been dead and buried. Digable Planets once sang of the 'Rebirth of Slick.' Well, this may very well be the 'Rebirth of Vick.' And you know what? I'm cool with dat."

Michael's on standby. Kevin certainly got his bell rung, or as they say in Philly, he got his 'Liberty Bell rung.' He's still shaking out the 'Kolb-webs,' and if he's ready to go, he'll get the start. Not because he gives us the best chance to win, but because I'm a stubborn mule and don't want to look foolish for investing the team's future in a player, and then not playing him."

Vick gets the start and is unstoppable, throwing for 2 touchdowns, rushing for another, and generally baffling the Lions defense. Johnson has 9 receptions and 1 touchdown, and also catches several NFL rulebooks thrown at him by angry fans.

Philadelphia wins, 31-24.

Chicago @ Dallas (-9)

If Dallas' 13-7 loss in Washington proved anything, it's that boneheaded decisions by Cowboys are not limited to off-the-field endeavors. Two glaring errors (a fumble that gave the 'Skins a touchdown to end the first half and a holding penalty that canceled out the Cowboys' game-winning score) were the catalysts in the heartbreaking loss.

"The Cowboys were also victimized by 11 other penalties," Cutler said. "But that's just the beginning of their issues. They have multiple problems. They may be 'America's Team,' but 'America's Teem-ing' with troubles."

Despite a multitude of mistakes, you have to credit the Cowboys with one thing. Although it ended badly, that fateful play at the end of the first half was the NFL's first Hail Mary shovel pass (research courtesy of the Hail Mary Hall of Fame in Vatican City).

The Bears can certainly match the Cowboys for boneheaded plays. Despite out-gaining the Lions 463 to 168, Chicago turned the ball over 4 times and gave up 4 sacks. In addition, Lovie Smith opted to go on 4th-and-1 from Detroit's one-yard line, although they trailed 14-13.

"The marquee outside Cowboys Stadium," Jerry Jones quipped, "says 'Dumb And Dumber.' But I won't tolerate the kinds of mistakes that killed us in the Redskins loss. If necessary, we'll make changes. If someone can do a job better, they'll get the start. In fact, I've already authorized one change: offensive lineman Alex Barron has taken over for Matt McBriar as holder."

Dallas wins, 30-24.

Baltimore @ Cincinnati (-1)

Ray Lewis, in the buildup to the Ravens/Jets Monday night opener, pleaded with everyone not to get consumed by the Jets' brash talk. Well, the wizened veteran proved prophetic, as the physical Ravens bullied their way to a 10-9 win in the Meadowlands. Now attention turns to AFC North rival Cincinnati, which swept the Ravens in 2009.

"When I said 'Don't believe the hype,'" Lewis explained, "I meant it. I said it with conviction, just like I said 'Don't believe the witness' some time ago, although I guess you could say that was a statement made without conviction."

Anyway, we've silenced the Jets for now. We've heard enough of their bold talk on 'Hard Knocks.' Well, Home Box Office, in conjunction with the Baltimore Ravens, would like to announce the sequel. In the spirit of filmmakers past, it's a silent picture, entitled 'Sound Off.'"

Films of yore, quoth the Raven. Films of yore.

Against the Ravens, the Jets lacked anything resembling a downfield passing game. That's a strength of the Bengals, who boast strong-armed quarterback Carson Palmer, as well as veteran wide receivers Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens.

"We don't fear the Ravens," Ochocinco said, "and we don't fear Ray Lewis, at least in his Old Spice commercial. And we won't shy away from crossing patterns over the middle, despite the fact that we saw Ray knock Dustin Keller so silly, Keller couldn't even locate the first down marker later. In fact, T.O. and I have an online crusade of fans begging us to take on Ray across the middle. We call them the 'Alligator Arm-y.'"

The Bengals have home turf to defend, and need to avoid an 0-2 hole in the AFC North. They do so, with a finely-crafted game plan modeled exactly the opposite of the Jets.'

Bengals win, 19-16.

Buffalo @ Green Bay (-9)

After facing an Eagles team featuring the dynamic Michael Vick, the rough-and-tumble Packers defense gets a respite, of sorts, when Trent Edwards and the anemic Buffalo offense visit Lambeau Field.

"The Bills offense is as predictable as sunrise," said Charles Woodson. "And, like the sun, the Bills' offense never moves. It's routine, almost mechanical, so when they face our dynamic defense, you can say 'That's all she rote.'"

The Bills and coach Chan Gailey will need to eschew the conservative approach and attack the Packers on the edges and downfield. Defensively, they have to pressure Aaron Rodgers and limit his comfort in the pocket.

"Indeed," said Gailey, "we intend to 'open up the playbook,' as they say. Whether or not I call any plays from it remains to be seen. We do intend to let C.J. Spiller take a few snaps in a newly-implemented formation we like to call the 'Buffalo Wild Wing.'"

Packers win, 30-17.

St. Louis @ Oakland (-3½)

Despite a loss to the Cardinals, rookie quarterback Sam Bradford was impressive in his debut for the Rams, with 32 completions and 55 passing attempts. In Oakland, he'll face Nmandi Asomugha, one of the NFL's two best cover men.

"You don't hear much about 'Asomugha Island,'" Bradford said. "From what I hear, though, it's surrounded by water, and incompetence. But his man-to-man coverage is top notch, and when he has safety help, be it from Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, or his Man Friday, it's impossible to throw his way."

Bradford finds the going rough in the Black Hole, throwing 2 interceptions, seemingly unnerved by the insane Raider faithful.

Oakland wins, 26-12.

Seattle @ Denver (-3)

Seattle will head to Denver's Invesco Field at Mile High with a key 31-6 drubbing of NFC West rival San Francisco under their belt. Pete Carroll won his debut as Seahawks coach in impressive fashion, and proved that, whether in the college or pro ranks, he can be successful while managing pay-for-play athletes.

"Anyone who though the 49ers would run away with this division better think again," Carroll said. "I think I'm going to like it here. The NCAA can't touch me, I'm overpaid, and all my players have agents. Heck, it's just like being at USC."

The Broncos suffered a 24-17 loss in Jacksonville in front of a crowd of 63,636, most there to get a glimpse of hometown hero Tim Tebow. Alas, Tebow was in for only three plays, gaining 2 yards on 2 carries.

"It's no secret," said Josh McDaniels, "that I'm preparing Tebow for the eventual starting role. You could say I'm 'grooming' him, and it's no accident that statement sounds mildly erotic. At least to me. But I'm not quite ready to thrust Tim, into action, that is, until I get to know him a little better. For now, I'm content to go steady with Kyle Orton."

Matt Prater kicks a 55-yard field goal as time expires, giving the Broncos a dramatic 24-22 win, and Tebow is carried off the field by his teammates.

Houston @ Washington (+3)

The Mike Shanahan era began in Washington with a huge 13-7 win over NFC East rival Dallas, giving the Redskins' faithful hope that this may be the year the team breaks out. On Sunday, Washington, like Houston, 34-24 winners over the Colts last week, hopes to avoid a letdown after such a huge division win.

"What's the most stunning aspect of the Shanahan era in Washington?" said Redskins owner Daniel Snyder. "Is it the fact that Shanny wore an 'I'm With Stupid' t-shirt when he shook my hand to accept the head coaching job? No. Shanny's encouragement of Albert Haynesworth to get in shape, so he could star in Precious 2? No. It's the fact that Shanahan's skin is a match exactly to Redskins burgundy."

Now, the Redskins organization doesn't condone the words of Clinton Portis made in regards to female reporters in the locker room. Someone needs to tell Clinton that 'misogyny' is not something that comes with a happy ending."

Texans running back Arian Foster torched the Colts for 231 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 34-24 win. That effort puts Foster on top as the NFL's leading rusher.

"Adolf Hitler was right," said Gary Kubiak. "Arian's the master race. I doubt Adolf knew that he was referring to the master of the NFL rushing race. But what does a megalomaniac know about football? Well, besides Bill Parcells."

Anyway, I'm sure the Redskins will be geared up to stop Foster. But are the Texans stupid enough to try to ram Foster down the Redskins throats? No, but it sure sets up good play-action.

Matt Schaub hits Andre Johnson for a touchdown on the Texans' first possession, and Houston hangs on for a 28-23 win.

New England @ NY Jets (-1)

Things are just peachy for Tom Brady. He just signed a new, $72 million contract, he's married to Brazilian supermodel Giselle Bundchen, and the three-ringed Super Bowl champ's cologne, "Smell the Fingers," sold double-digit bottles last year.

Not so much for Randy Moss. There's no supermodel and no fancy cologne, although Moss has been shopping his own fragrance, a scent that captures the essence of the rugged West Virginia wilderness, and the leathery aroma of a regulation football, called "Flannel No. 81." After last Sunday's win over the Bengals, Moss spoke less of the game and more of how he feels "unwanted" in New England without a new contract.

"So Randy wants more 'bread,'" said Brady. "That's interesting, because the lack of a new deal leaves him contractually obligated to 'loaf.'"

"But we'll certainly need Randy against the Jets. At least to occupy Darrelle Revis while we throw at Kyle Wilson. We're not stupid. We'll avoid any visits to 'Revis Island,' but I hear the fishing's good on 'Wilson Island,' because everybody's catching, and there's a lot of 'biting.'"

Brady's contract was certainly big news, but was nowhere near as earth-shaking as Darrelle Revis' $46 million deal that ended his 36-day holdout and secured the game's top cornerback's place in the Jet defensive backfield.

"Sure, Brady's contract was for more money," Revis said. "To that, I say 'Big deal.' My contract was so historic, it was signed on the deck of the USS Missouri."

But before we can concern ourselves with the opponent's passing game, we need to get ours straight. Brian Schottenheimer's play-calling was so conservative, it made his father, Marty, curse the family name. For this team, it looks like the only bombs that will be appearing will be 'F-bombs.'"

This will be a game of contrast. The Patriots and their dynamic, pass-happy offense against the Jets and their physical defense. The affable Rex Ryan against the staid Bill Belichick. Heck, even their treatment of female reporters wildly differs. The Jets try to incorporate a female reporter into their workout; the Patriots greet their female reporters with a whip out.

Patriots win, 22-16.

Jacksonville @ San Diego (-5)

David Garrard's 3 touchdown passes, two to tight end Marcedes Lewis, powered the Jaguars to a 24-17 win over the Broncos. It's that kind of take-charge performance Jack Del Rio envisioned on the many occasions he's urged his quarterback to be more assertive.

"David was brilliant," said Del Rio. "I can't tell you how proud I am. For so long, I've longed for the confidence to put David on the field and dare the opponent to beat him. But even more so, I've longed for the opportunity to put him on the field and say to the opposition 'En Garrard.'"

The Chargers fell to the Chiefs 21-14 on Monday night, a loss that clearly bothered quarterback Philip Rivers, San Diego's fireplug of a quarterback. Rivers passed for 298 yards and 2 touchdowns, and will look for more of the same against a Jacksonville secondary that surrendered similar numbers to Denver's Kyle Orton.

"For Christ's sake," Rivers said, "please don't compare me to Denver quarterbacks, former or present. Monday's loss was certainly frustrating. Heck, I haven't been that frustrated since Ed Hochuli and Jay Cutler double-clotheslined me, although cooking breakfast for the Monday Night Countdown gang was an equally trying endeavor."

Chargers win, 31-26.

NY Giants @ Indianapolis (-5½)

Unless it's footage from those intense training videos for Oreo's Double Stuff Racing League, football fans are not often treated to a Manning versus Manning battle. Fans will see the brothers do battle when Eli and the Colts travel to Lucas Oil Stadium where Peyton and the Colts await.

"I don't want to say I taught Eli everything he knows," said Peyton Manning, "because that would reflect badly upon me. Let's just say I taught him everything I know. The interceptions, the bad decisions, how to keep a helmet on — he learned all that on his own."

"Eli's never played a regular-season game at Lucas Oil Stadium, but he has witnessed a Colts game or two from the elegant setting of a luxury suite, where I'm sure he enjoyed individual service from one of the Luc's fine waitress staff, the 'Personal Lubricants.' Our defense won't be nearly as hospitable. And I know the defense is ready to play. How do I know? Because Bob Sanders is injured."

The Giants will certainly have their chances against a Colts defense that gave up 257 yards on the ground to the Texans, or will they? The Colts always seem to find a way to plug gaping holes in their defense, oftentimes with Peyton Manning. Peyton will toy with the G-Men defense, countering their counters with counters to their counters.

Manning throws for 345 yards and 3 touchdowns, two to Reggie Wayne.

Indianapolis wins, 34-24.

New Orleans @ San Francisco (+4½)

A sobering 31-6 loss in Seattle left the 49ers asking, "what happened?" And head coach Mike Singletary has no answers, although he's been trying to underplay the 49er playoff hype with a rap called "The Super Bowl Muffle."

"There was a time when the corner of Haight and Ashbury defined San Francisco," Singletary said. "After our performance last Sunday, the intersection of 'Drawing Board' and 'Square One' is the place to be. Because that's where we will be."

I'm certainly disappointed in our performance. Our fans were expecting big things this year, and we still plan on delivering. I understand they had faith in us. Let's just hope San Francisco rockers 'Faith No More' aren't scheduled to perform the national anthem before Monday night's game."

The Saints are 1-0 after a 14-9 win over the Vikings in a surprising defensive slugfest. Drew Brees and the Saints will have their work cut out against a 49er team that will be fired up to play the defending Super Bowl champs on Monday night.

"I'm saddened that Reggie Bush had to return his Heisman Trophy," Brees said. "It seems that the Heisman committee wanted Bush to strike a 'pose' from their list of winners. But Reggie's got a lot going for him. What other Heisman winner can say they've won a Super Bowl and have been intimate with Kim Kardashian? Besides Jim Plunkett?"

The Saints, behind Brees' 245 yards through the air, nip the inspired 49ers on Garrett Hartley's late field goal.

New Orleans wins, 27-24.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:41 PM | Comments (4)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 26

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin led 251 of 400 laps at Richmond, erasing the memory of 34th- and 43rd-place finishes in his last two races to grab the top seed in the Chase For the Cup. Hamlin's sixth win of the year places him 10 points ahead of four-time defending champion Jimmie Johnson, with five wins.

"The No. 11 Joe Gibbs Camry was awesome on Saturday night," Hamlin said. "There were a lot of people who doubted out ability to get this car ready for the Chase. Well, if the FedEx Office car could talk, it would undoubtedly tell those people to 'kiss my asterisk.'"

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson finished third in the Air Guard 400, sandwiched among three Joe Gibbs Racing cars that finished first, second, and fourth. It was Johnson's tenth top-five finish of the year, and he will start the Chase seeded second, 10 points behind Denny Hamlin.

"We may not be leading the standings right now," Johnson said, "but with two consecutive third-place finishes, we will be there soon. In this business, timing is everything, and as a four-time champion, our 'time-ing' is best."

"And speaking of time, do you know what time it is? I'll tell you. It's 10 until 5 — 10 races until I'm crowned with my fifth Sprint Cup title. It's only a matter of time."

3. Kevin Harvick — Harvick finished ninth at Richmond, his series-best 17th top-10 result of the year. However, Harvick's sizeable points lead is gone, and as a result of the points reset, he'll start the Chase For the Cup 30 points down to Denny Hamlin.

"There's good news and bad news," Harvick said. "The bad news is my 228-point lead is gone. The good news? There's something that can disappear faster than a 228-point lead, and that's a 30-point lead."

4. Kyle Busch — After a poor qualifying effort, Busch started 32nd in the Air Guard 400, but quickly made his way to the front. Busch was in the top 10 on lap 136, and soon after, hit the top five. He later dueled teammate Denny Hamlin for the lead in the closing laps, but was unable to overtake the No. 11 Toyota.

"The No. 18 M&Ms Toyota was fast enough to win," Busch said, "but I just used up too much of the car trying to get close to Hamlin, which, incidentally, is the only way I would ever even consider 'getting close' to him."

Anyway, they say 'M&Ms melt in your mouth, not in your hands.' Well, the way I drove it, the tires of the M&Ms car melted on the track, and in my hands."

5. Carl Edwards — Edwards continued his hot streak, starting from the pole at Richmond and leading 95 laps on his way to a 10th-place finish. Edwards, in the No. 99 Cheez-It Ford, scored his 14th top-10 of the year, and eighth in his last nine races, to enter the Chase as the most dangerous driver without a win.

"I suggest other drivers take me seriously as a contender for the Cup," Edwards said. "And other drivers suggested that to be taken seriously, I should try something besides 'Cheez-it' on my car."

6. Tony Stewart — After winning last week at Atlanta, Stewart closed the regular season with a 16th at Richmond, losing some of the momentum built by his lone victory this year. He will start the Chase 50 points down to Denny Hamlin.

"My win at Atlanta," Stewart said, "was a 'Smoke' signal that I would be a factor in the Chase. If that's the case, then my 16th at Richmond could portend that the Chase will likely see barely a puff of 'Smoke.'"

7. Kurt Busch — Already locked into the Chase, Busch and the No. 2 Miller Lite team went for the win, making some changes to the car that didn't pan out. Loose-handling issues arose, and Busch struggled to an 18th-place finish. Busch will start the Chase with 5,020 points, 40 behind Denny Hamlin.

"As you know," Busch said, "I won the inaugural Chase back in 2004. It's true what they say — becoming the Sprint Cup champion does change your life. Look at me. Without a title hence, I haven't been the same since."

8. Jeff Gordon — Gordon finished a respectable 12th at Richmond, but with no wins this year, will start the Chase For the Cup a disappointing 60 points down. Gordon has now gone 55 races without a win.

"Sammy Hagar may not be able to," Gordon said, "but I can drive 55, without a win. And I'm sure I could ruin Van Halen, as well."

"As an eternal optimist, I look at 55 races without a win as consistency. And consistency, not wins, is the key to success in the Chase. Ten more consistent races, and I could be Sprint Cup champion for the fifth time, which I believe would equal the number of failed Van Halen reunions."

9. Clint Bowyer — Needing only a finish of 28th or better to clinch a Chase berth, Bowyer easily punched his ticket with a sixth at Richmond, posting his 14th top-10 finish of the year. The Richard Childress Racing driver will start the Chase For the Cup 60 points behind top seed Denny Hamlin.

"I think I speak for all five Chase qualifiers without a win," Bowyer said, "when I say that a 60-point deficit is a pretty good deal considering. A 60-point deficit accumulated over 26 races is nothing. Give me 10 races, and I can knock 60 points out easily. So, in essence, the five of us can win for losing."

10. Greg Biffle — Biffle finished 32nd at Richmond, one week after coming home 36th at Atlanta, clinching his spot in the Chase, albeit under disappointing circumstances. He'll start his quest for the Sprint Cup 50 points behind Denny Hamlin.

"I'm just glad to be back in the Chase," Biffle said. "And 'back' is the operative word, because we certainly 'backed' our way into it."

But there are three Roush Fenway drivers in the Chase, two you may have heard about, and Matt Kenseth."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:49 AM | Comments (0)

September 15, 2010

September Heat in National League West

San Francisco, Colorado, and San Diego enter the stretch run of the baseball season in a close NL West race. Entering Sept. 13, San Francisco and San Diego were tied for the division lead and Colorado was 1.5 games behind them. The National League West and East have baseball's best races and the tightest race is in the NL West.

The American League playoff picture appears to be getting clearer the deeper baseball season goes into September.

The Texas Rangers look like the AL West champs. The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays appear to be in the playoffs as either the AL East champion or a wild card team. There may be a little drama left in the AL Central as the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox battle for the division crown with 6 games separating the teams.

All of the drama appears to reside in the National League. Philadelphia has a 1-game lead in the NL East and Atlanta is in the lead for the wild card, by a game. Six games separate Cincinnati and St. Louis, but the Reds appear like the Twins to be closing in on the division crown.

Atlanta, Philadelphia, Colorado, San Francisco, and San Diego are vying for the final three playoff spots. The Cardinals appear to be out of the wild card race as they are 6.5 games and four teams out of the wild card chase. With the wild card race so close, the only guarantee for the NL East and NL West teams playoff hopes is to win the division.

Although it is possible that the wild card team could come out of the NL West, the only certain way into the playoffs is to win the division. In order to handicap the race, a look at the remaining games and players is needed. Here's closer look at the NL West's remaining schedules and teams reveals.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have won 10 straight games and have 19 games left. Colorado's remaining schedule in the order they will play each team, and how they have faired against each team includes:

* 3 games at home versus San Diego (11-4)
* 3 games in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers (5-7)
* 3 games on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks (8-6)
* 3 games at home to face the Giants (8-7)
* 3 games at home to entertain the Dodgers (5-7)
* 4 games at St. Louis to end the season (3-0)

The team has nine home games left and is 49-22 at home. Colorado has 10 road games on their remaining schedule and is 29-42 away from Coors Field.

Colorado is 35-24 against its remaining opponents. Six games against the Dodgers could mean Los Angeles is poised to be the spoiler of the Colorado's season.

The Rockies hold the National League's best winning percentage in the month of September since 2007. They have a .633 winning percentage in the month since 2007. Colorado's Carlos Gonzalez is first in the National League in batting average and slugging percentage, third in runs, tied for fourth in home runs, third in RBI, and first in hits. Ubaldo Jimenez has been great all season and has 18 wins.

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco is 7-3 in their last 10 games and they have 18 games left. Their schedule in order is:

* 3 games at home against the Dodgers (8-7)
* 3 games at home to face the Milwaukee Brewers (4-0)
* 3 games in Wrigley Field against the Chicago Cubs (3-1)
* 3 games at Colorado (7-8)
* 3 games at home against the Diamondbacks (10-5)
* 3 games at home to end the season against San Diego (4-10)

The Giants have 12 remaining home games where they are 42-27. San Francisco has six road games and they are 38-36 on the road.

San Francisco is 36-31 against the remaining teams on its schedule. They will face Colorado and San Diego and the Giants are a combined 11-18 against both teams.

The Giants have won 21 of their last 32 contests against NL West teams with 12 game left against the Dodgers, Rockies, and Padres.

San Francisco's team ERA is the lowest in the majors for the month of September. The Giants bullpen entered Monday's game allowing 1 earned run in 22 innings (0.41 ERA) and held opponents to a .164 batting average. For the year, the bullpen has the third lowest ERA in the National League.

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres are slumping with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games and have 20 games remaining on the schedule:

* 3 games at Colorado (4-11)
* 4 games at St Louis (2-1)
* 3 games in Los Angeles to face the Dodgers (8-7)
* 3 games home versus the Reds (2-1)
* 4 home games against the Cubs (4-0)
* 3 games on the road against the Giants to end the season (10-4)

The Padres have seven home games left and are 42-31 at home. San Diego has 13 road games where they are 38-30.

San Diego is 30-24 against the teams left on its schedule. San Diego will get to face Colorado and San Francisco and they are a combined 14-15 against them.

The pitching staff has 18 shutouts and is tied for most in the majors. Heath Bell is second in the NL with 40 saves and has converted his last 27 saves. The bullpen has combined to allow 2 runs over 20 innings of work (0.90 ERA). The nine relievers used in the last six games have recorded 24 strikeouts, averaging 1.2 strikeouts per inning pitched.

In his last 34 games, Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .364 with 9 doubles, 6 home runs, 22 RBI, and 19 runs scored with a .435 on-base percentage and a .574 slugging percentage.

Conclusion

More home games and a superior home record appear to favor the Giants. Colorado has proven it is the best baseball team in September since 2007. The Padres are slumping, but once they get past the Rockies series, they will face teams they are 26-13 against, including 10-4 against the Giants, who they face the last weekend of the season.

The pitching for all three clubs appears to be strong and there are enough hitters on each team to keep the race close. The National League West could come down to the final weekend of the season, when the Giants and Padres play each other. The Rockies are on the road for their final four games against the Cardinals and haven't lost to them in 2010.

San Diego's recent 4-13 record, and San Francisco's struggles against the Padres, could spell trouble for each team. Colorado is positioned well to steal the division during the last weekend of the season with four games against the Cardinals.

The tight NL West race will make for a September that may be cool on the field, but hot in the standings. In the end, however, it may be too close to call and a one game playoff could be necessary as it has been in the past. The question is who will the two teams be this year?

Posted by Vito Curcuru at 3:42 PM | Comments (0)

September 14, 2010

NFL Week 1 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* Home teams went 12-4 in Week 1.

* If Steve Breaston is available in your fantasy league, please pick him up. There's no reason to believe this guy won't put up the same kind of numbers Anquan Boldin did in Arizona. After one week, he's fifth in the league in receiving yards.

* Congratulations to U.S. Open champions Kim Clijsters and Rafael Nadal. For Clijsters, it's her second Slam since returning from retirement. For Nadal, this completes a career Grand Slam.

* I know the FOX studio crew tries to have fun — it tries really hard to have fun — but those guys have got to talk one at a time instead of just shouting over each other.

* At halftime of the Eagles game, backup center Mike McGlynn had more receptions than top wideout DeSean Jackson.

***

What a fantastic way to start the season, with multiple games going down to the wire, many of them bitter divisional rivalries. The biggest story this week is the controversial finish to this week's game in Chicago, and you'll find my thoughts on the matter in the Bears and Lions summaries below.

For the last several seasons, the NFL has opened Week 1 with a Monday night double-header. It's a fun tradition, though I'm glad it's only once a year. The problem, to the extent there is one, is that ESPN has both games. The normal ESPN crew worked the first game, Ravens at Jets. I'd give them an A-. It was a professional production with valuable insights from analysts Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden, and Mike Tirico may be the best play-by-play man in professional football.

The second game gets a D-. The production and editing decisions were consistently poor, with repeated shots from an angle Dr. Z described best: "a ground-level view — way behind the action, as if you were seeing things from the worst seat in the house, row one, end zone," as well as close-ups of the crowd when a play was starting, causing the audience to miss part of the action. That's just inexcusable in a supposedly professional broadcast.

Far worse, though, was the announcing team of Brad Nessler and Trent Dilfer. These guys have absolutely no business in this business. I wouldn't let them announce a high school game, for free. Nessler simply doesn't know what he's talking about. My favorite Nessler quote was when he announced to the audience that, "It's been two tales of a couple of halves" for Antonio Gates. That's word for word. He also claimed that punting into the end zone for a touchback was "the right thing," which is absurd.

Dilfer is so incredibly biased toward quarterbacks that he is completely unreliable as an analyst. Nothing is the quarterback's fault. When Matt Cassel got off to a slow start, it was because of his horrendous offensive line. Kansas City's offensive line played a great game on Monday night, and Cassel — who is one of the worst QBs in the league about throwing the ball away, and often takes unnecessary sacks that his line gets blamed for — usually had a ton of time to throw. I waited all game for Dilfer and Nessler to apologize and point out how well the KC line was playing and what solid protection Cassel was getting. It never happened.

When Philip Rivers overthrew Malcolm Floyd — and I love Philip Rivers, but Dilfer's admiration for him rises to the level of "creepy and weird" — Dilfer claimed, "This is not a bad throw," as if the incompletion was Floyd's fault for not having go-go-gadget arms. On a Cassel incompletion to Dwayne Bowe: "In my mind, that's a drop." The throw was behind him and Bowe never got a hand on the ball.

This is apart from things that simply don't make sense. After Legedu Naanee's touchdown, Dilfer announced, "This is what the San Diego Chargers do." No one covered Naanee on the play. He wasn't just open, or even wide open. He was totally uncovered. Any college team in the country, certainly every NFL team, makes that play. It's nothing to do with what the San Diego Chargers do. That's what the Kansas City Chiefs do. Later, criticizing Kansas City for not checking a play down, Dilfer stated that a pass to Thomas Jones "is gonna get you at least eight, ten yards, get you in easy field goal position." The ball was at the 41-yard line. Eight yards would have set up a 51-yard field goal attempt. That's not easy. That's not even medium — it's a really tough kick.

I could go on. Let's just leave it at this: neither of these guys has any business on television. The job is harder than most fans realize, but there's absolutely no excuse for sending out two people so ill-informed and unreliable. It's bush league, and the self-proclaimed "worldwide leader" owes its audience better. On to the Week 1 power rankings. Brackets show preseason rank.

1. New Orleans Saints [5] — Didn't look fantastic in Week 1, but they got a solid win against a team we think is pretty good. Last season, no one held the Saints to 14 points until the season finale in which they rested the starters. Garrett Hartley's struggles are cause for concern, particularly the 32-yarder he shanked in the fourth quarter. If he had missed more kicks, I wonder if Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth would have joked every single time that he needed more pressure. I have never watched a game in which the offensive guards received so much praise. They deserved it. Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans are the best tandem in the NFL, and they did a great job neutralizing Minnesota's interior defensive line. LT Jermon Bushrod, who struggled at times last season, did a nice job against Jared Allen, too.

2. Tennessee Titans [3] — Beating the Raiders counts for nothing, I know. Even destroying the Raiders doesn't count for all that much. But I think the Titans showed everything you wanted to see from them in Week 1. Chris Johnson picked up where he left off last year. Vince Young was 13-for-17 with 2 TDs and a 142.8 passer rating, plus 30 yards on the ground. The defense didn't allow a touchdown until the fourth quarter, when Tennessee already led 38-6. Their home matchup against Pittsburgh next Sunday is one of the highlights of Week 2.

3. Baltimore Ravens [10] — Dominated a game that was closer than it should have been. They out-gained the Jets by over 100 yards, nearly 200 if you include penalty yardage. They made 20 first downs, compared to just six for the Jets. They had a 17-minute advantage in time of possession. Cam Cameron, who was Baltimore's offensive coordinator while Jets HC Rex Ryan was the defensive coordinator, out-dueled his former colleague, staying away from Darrelle Revis and picking on rookie CB Kyle Wilson, who looks like a potential liability. Baltimore's defense played exceptionally well against the outmatched New York offense.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers [7] — Dennis Dixon didn't knock anyone's socks off in Week 1, but I don't see why the Steelers can't be successful with him. This team went 15-1 in Ben Roethlisberger's rookie season, by running effectively and playing great defense. They won the Super Bowl in 2005 following the same formula. For that matter, it's pretty much the same blueprint used in 1995, and 1974, and almost every year the Steelers have been successful. Pittsburgh's defense is healthy again, a threat to every offense in the league, and Rashard Mendenhall is really coming into his own as a runner. As long as Dixon picks up a few third downs and doesn't make big mistakes, the Steelers are a team to be reckoned with.

5. Indianapolis Colts [1] — The concern, obviously, is defense. Run defense in particular — a seemingly perpetual problem for this team — appears to be an issue following Arian Foster's 231-yard, 3-touchdown bonanza. I worry about the pass defense, too. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis both played at a very high level last year, and most of the key players were healthy for most of the season. Luck plays a role in that kind of thing, and it's hard to maintain for two seasons in a row. Safety Bob Sanders is injured. In a related story, puppies are cute and water is wet.

6. Minnesota Vikings [6] — It's too early to panic, after a road loss to the defending champs. But Thursday's defeat highlighted some obvious areas of concern. Perhaps most obviously, the team misses Sidney Rice. A lot. No Viking wide receiver had more than one catch in Week 1, and it just didn't look like there was a lot of confidence in the receiving corps. The ineffectiveness of the Williams Wall is nothing to start a panic about after one game, but it's something to keep an eye on. Under-the-radar DE Ray Edwards, the Lamar Lundy or Dwight White of Minnesota's d-line, was by far the most impressive and effective player up front against New Orleans.

7. Green Bay Packers [9] — Ryan Grant has been ruled out of next week's game with an ankle injury, but it's hard not to think the Packers can manage without him, especially if they don't unexpectedly have to take on Michael Vick after preparing for a right-handed pocket passer. Green Bay just won a road game against a 2009 playoff team, and its banged-up secondary held up just fine, allowing under 200 passing yards and just 1 touchdown. The worries are more on the offensive side. Grant's injury leaves the team very thin at running back, and 34-year-old left tackle Chad Clifton had a lot of trouble blocking Trent Cole on Sunday. Mason Crosby booted a kickoff out of bounds, but he also connected on 49- and 56-yard field goals, the latter a team record.

8. New England Patriots [16] — Well, I guess Tom Brady and Wes Welker are healthy. So is Vince Wilfork, who is just a huge (literally) disruptive force inside. Wilfork was credited with two solo tackles and one assist. Ho-hum, right? Don't judge interior d-linemen by their numbers. Wilfork is a beast, the most important player on that defense. A player who did post big defensive numbers was safety Pat Chung, who put on a fantastic tackling display against Cincinnati. The biggest factor in the victory, or at least the most noteworthy, was the dominance of New England's offensive line over the Bengals' defensive front. Even without all-pro guard Logan Mankins, the Patriots controlled the line of scrimmage and dropped 38 points on a team that didn't give up that many all of last season. I realize you play differently with a three- or four-touchdown lead, but I'm concerned at how much offense the Bengals generated in the second half.

9. Dallas Cowboys [2] — How big a problem are the injuries to offensive linemen Kyle Kosier and Marc Colombo? Uh, pretty big. Alex Barron, who started in place of Colombo and whom you've probably heard by now is the most penalized player in the NFL over the past five seasons, was called for three holding penalties, including the one that negated a potential game-winning touchdown. Penalties were a huge difference in a game the Cowboys easily could have won, with Dallas racking up 12 fouls for 81 yards. Miles Austin looked great, and rookie WR Dez Bryant showed some promise, but as always, I felt that the Cowboys threw too often and didn't run the ball enough. This is a great running team. DeMarcus Ware insists his neck injury is not serious and that he will be ready for Week 2.

10. Miami Dolphins [11] — Boring winners, and I think they're okay with that. This team doesn't make a lot of big plays, it just sort of plods ahead to victory, like the tortoise outracing the hare. Chad Henne averaged 5.4 yards per pass attempt (6.5 is about average) with no touchdowns and no interceptions. It appears that new wide receiver Brandon Marshall will be used more to nickel-and-dime opponents to death (he averaged 6.6 yards per reception) rather than torch them deep. And the Dolphins will rely on defense and the running game to keep them in every contest. It could work.

11. Houston Texans [19] — I would like to personally thank the Houston offense and defense for putting me in first place in my fantasy league following Week 1, since I had both Peyton Manning and Arian Foster in my lineup. I'd actually like to see Steve Slaton get a few more carries in the future, just so Foster doesn't get overworked or injured. Next week's trip to Washington showcases a fascinating matchup of two teams that exceeded expectations in Week 1.

12. New York Jets [4] — The Ravens have a good defense, but an NFL offense should never look as bad as they did on Monday night, regardless of the opposition. I realize Mark Sanchez is a young guy and the team is building toward the future, but if they're serious about a Super Bowl run in 2010, I wonder if 39-year-old Mark Brunell isn't a better option in the short term. Sanchez appears to have very little confidence, and as Jaworski repeatedly pointed out, the passes that are supposed to be his check-downs appear to be the first thing he looks for. You can't win that way. Defensively, Shaun Ellis and Revis looked terrific against Baltimore, but NT Kris Jenkins left the game with a fresh knee injury. That guy just can't catch a break. Once again, the team will miss him.

13. San Diego Chargers [8] — Under Norv Turner, the Chargers are 5-7 in September and 32-17 overall. Slow starts are par for the course, and I'm not terribly concerned about them at this point. In the wake of their surprising loss to Kansas City, you'll hear a lot of insistence this week that it's about the absences of holdouts Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeill. Obviously the Chargers miss those players, and Jackson in particular might have made a difference on Monday night. But I don't think it's clear that they would have turned the game. One player who obviously is missed is special teams standout Kassim Osgood, who left for Jacksonville in free agency. The Chargers aren't accustomed to the kind of coverage lapses they suffered on Monday.

14. New York Giants [14] — Accidentally claimed a victory in the game no one wanted to win. Despite their best efforts to lose, including 4 turnovers and 9 penalties for 95 yards, the Giants beat Carolina to open 1-0. The two teams combined for nine turnovers, and in the second half, six straight possessions ended in turnovers. Part of that was good defense and aggressive special teams, but a lot of it was poor, sloppy play.

15. Washington Redskins [24] — Won a game that Washington fans will remember for a long time. With 90,000 people roaring, the team somehow closed out an opening-day win over its biggest rival on national television, in the debut of its new head coach and quarterback. Donovan McNabb completed under 50% of his passes and clearly is not yet totally comfortable in this offense, but he played well, and I think he and Mike Shanahan have brought a confidence to this team that it didn't have with Jim Zorn and Jason Campbell. The biggest problem is a lack of secondary offensive options. After Santana Moss and Chris Cooley, there doesn't appear to be anyone to throw to. That needs to change if this team wants to capitalize on the momentum it captured Sunday night.

16. Atlanta Falcons [15] — Roddy White had a great game (13 receptions, 111 yards) and the defense did its job for four quarters. Maybe it's just playing against a great defense, but the poor performances of Matt Ryan (67.6 passer rating) and Michael Turner (42 yards, 2.2 avg) are worrisome.

17. Cincinnati Bengals [12] — Both the Bengals and Patriots ran their first offensive plays out of the shotgun. That's the NFL in 2010. Carson Palmer was one of three QBs with at least 50 pass attempts in Week 1. Their defensive line, with Domata Peko and Antwan Odom back in action, was supposed to dominate the way it did at the beginning of last season. Instead, the team generated no pass rush and finished without any sacks or turnovers. The offense went no-huddle for most of the second half and seemed to get a spark, putting up big receiving numbers.

18. Arizona Cardinals [17] — Derek Anderson got off to a nice start in his regular-season debut with the Cardinals. He passed for a low percentage (53.7%), but threw for 297 yards and a touchdown, leading Arizona to a road win — albeit an uncomfortably close one — against a division rival. The Cardinals overcame a remarkable seven fumbles and 10 penalties, in large part thanks to dominating safety Adrian Wilson, who had a sack and two interceptions. Wilson has finally started to get some recognition among fans for his talent, but not as much as he deserves. I'm a big fan of LaRod Stephens-Howling, a special teams ace who had 7 carries for 49 yards and 3 catches for 16 against the Rams. I'd like to see him continue to get more touches on offense.

19. Kansas City Chiefs [21] — Upsets occur all the time in sports, but there are some identifiable conditions that make them more likely, and a number of them were in play for the Chief's victory on Monday. First, it was a home opener, with a big crowd full of optimism and energy. Second, it was a rivalry game against a familiar opponent. Those factors were present in Washington's Sunday night win, as well, and I don't doubt that they played a role. Third, the Chiefs' win came in bad weather, which can level (or tilt) the playing field. Fourth, it was played at an unusual time, the late game in the MNF double-header. KC's offensive and defensive lines looked good against San Diego, and there's plenty of reason to believe this is a team on the way up.

20. Philadelphia Eagles [18] — As of this writing, it's not clear who the Eagles will start at quarterback in Week 2. Kevin Kolb's concussion did not appear to be serious (at least to the extent that concussions are not always serious), but if there's any doubt about his condition, you have to think the team would play things safe and give Vick another shot against Detroit. Vick played well this weekend, and it's not worth risking the long-term health of a franchise QB against a beatable team like the Lions, especially when it's not obvious that your starter is better than your backup. Injuries to Jamaal Jackson, Leonard Weaver, and Stew Bradley are bigger concerns right now. Jackson, an underrated, top-tier center, was placed on IR with an injured biceps, and Weaver suffered a gruesome knee injury that will keep him out for the rest of the year. Bradley suffered a concussion and should be back at some point this season.

21. San Francisco 49ers [13] — They haven't had a reliable quarterback since chasing Jeff Garcia out of town. Actually, bringing back Garcia (who is now 40) might not be such a bad idea. San Francisco's offense was miserable on Sunday, against a team that last year had one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Alex Smith passed for two interceptions, a 52.5 passer rating, and just 225 yards on 45 attempts. Frank Gore averaged two yards per carry. Michael Crabtree caught two passes for 12 yards. The defense was better than that, but it allowed Matt Hasselbeck a 108.3 passer rating. The last time Hasselbeck posted a rating over 100 was Week 13 of last season, also against the 49ers.

22. Chicago Bears [20] — I've been trying to figure out, for the last 36 hours or so, whether I would be more upset as a Lions fan robbed of the game-winning touchdown, or as a Bears fan if the call had gone the other way. Probably the Bears fan, but it's close. I also can't tell what to think of the new Mike Martz offense. On the one hand, the Bears tied Indianapolis for the most offensive yards in Week 1. Jay Cutler had a good week, and Matt Forte had a great week, so great that people are comparing him to Marshall Faulk. On the other hand, the Bears scored just 19 points against a truly terrible defense.

23. Seattle Seahawks [31] — Statement game for a team coming off a disappointing '09 season, bringing in a new coaching staff and blowing out a division rival. The Seahawks did a good job of capitalizing on opportunities, scoring TDs in the red zone and forcing San Francisco to settle for field goals. Next week's game at Denver, against a former divisional foe, should help show whether the 'Hawks are for real.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars [29] — How high are expectations for Maurice Jones-Drew? He rushes for 98 yards, fifth in the NFL, and people say he had a bad game. No one is saying David Garrard had a bad game, after his 3-TD performance against Denver (138.9 rating). The Jaguars didn't dominate in Week 1, but they stuck to their gameplan and avoided major mistakes. Second-year DB William Middleton made a couple of nice tackles near the end of the game, and is a player to watch.

25. Denver Broncos [25] — The offense didn't look terribly different without Brandon Marshall. Kyle Orton threw for nearly 300 yards, and got good games from both Brandon Lloyd and Eddie Royal. But the defense missed Elvis Dumervil. Last year, he led the NFL in sacks, and on Sunday, a little more pressure might have turned the game.

26. Carolina Panthers [26] — Matt Moore, the Jake Delhomme Interception Specialist (TM) of 2010. Actually, maybe I should compare Moore to Jay Cutler in 2009 rather than Delhomme in 2009, since all of Moore's picks came in crucial situations, in the red zone. Or maybe I should go easy on him because he's hurt (listed as day-to-day). In this day and age, an NFL offense simply cannot be successful with only one legitimate receiver, and the Panthers only have one legitimate receiver.

27. Detroit Lions [27] — Rule 8, Section 1, Article 3, Item 1. The rule is clear, and it's difficult to argue that the officiating crew did not interpret it correctly. Some fans have pointed out that it appeared Calvin Johnson lost the ball as he was getting up (rather than as he was going to the ground), after one official had already signaled a touchdown. I'm sympathetic to that idea, but ultimately (see Bears comment), I think the officials made a justifiable decision. The problem is the rule, not the officiating crew. I'm not saying we need to get rid of the rule altogether, but it should at least be amended. This policy is not entirely negative: it often brings much-needed clarity to the issue of what is and is not a catch. The problem occurs when the letter of the law clearly conflicts — as it did on Sunday — with the spirit of the law. If 95% of the people watching a play think it's a catch, it should be a catch. Any statute that says it's not is a bad rule, and needs to be revisited.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [30] — I know they won the game, and I've always liked Ronde Barber, but is it too much to ask for a little effort on interception returns? Barber is 35, but he looked about 60 toward the end of that run.

29. Cleveland Browns [22] — Jake Delhomme is getting an MRI on his right ankle. I think Seneca Wallace is underrated, and I believe the Browns will be fine if Delhomme has to miss a week or two. The Browns ran very effectively against Tampa Bay, and I'd like to see them commit to the ground game.

30. Buffalo Bills [28] — The offense was terrible last year. It looked at least as bad on Sunday. I like Trent Edwards, and I think he's the team's best option at QB (which admittedly isn't saying much), but he has got to throw downfield, especially with the game on the line. That underneath stuff is fine on first or second down at the beginning of the game, and it's always fine if you're Tom Brady and Wes Welker, but at a certain point you have to make some plays. The Bills' defense did its job. If you hold your opponent to two field goals and a touchdown, you expect to win. You should win. This offense needs to cash the checks the defense is writing.

31. Oakland Raiders [23] — Lost the season-opener for the eighth year in a row. Their dramatic collapse following a loss in Super Bowl XXXVII is unparalleled, going from one of the two or three best teams to consistently one of the very worst. The schedule does get easier in Week 2, when the Rams come to Oakland. A home game against St. Louis might be the only matchup against another NFL team that the Raiders could be favored in at this point. Darren McFadden had a nice game against Tennessee.

32. St. Louis Rams [32] — Came up with some nice plays on defense and held the Cardinals to 17 points. Mark Clayton had 10 catches for 119 yards. But Sam Bradford tossed three picks, and with the Cardinals playing poorly, they still couldn't come up with a win. They're still the Rams. St. Louis plays at Oakland in Week 2. If you live in a St. Louis television market, go to a sports bar at 3:00 next week and watch Houston at Washington.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 4:58 PM | Comments (0)

Wozniacki's U.S. Open in Perspective

The absence of Serena Williams at this year's U.S. Open meant that Caroline Wozniacki, the world No. 2, was installed as the No. 1 seed. In many ways, it came about by default for the 20-year-old Dane, but that isn't to say that she hadn't earned the No. 1 seeding. She was, after all, the second best player in the world, only behind Serena Williams, according to the rankings.

Eyebrows were raised, however, in part because she has yet to win a major title. That's just how the tennis world works these days. Look at Dinara Safina, a player who occupied the World No. 1 spot without winning a Slam, and for that very reason, she was often chastised. It appears that one has to win a Slam in order to validate everything else, which, in actuality, is preposterous.

Wozniacki was clearly under pressure going into the tournament. Having come into New York, arguably, the form player, she was amongst the U.S. Open's main contenders. Some people argued that she wasn't a worthy No. 1 seed; talk which could only have added to the pressure, whilst also bringing forth a desire inside her to prove the critics wrong.

The pressure she was under, however, was diminished somewhat considering many pundits were tipping other people to lift the trophy. Kim Clijsters, Venus Williams, and Maria Sharapova were tending to get a mention before Wozniacki. In fact, I championed Sharapova about a month ago.

The first three rounds were easy for Wozniacki, dropping only three games. She was beginning to justify her tag as No. 1 seed, but up next in the fourth round was Sharapova. Wozniacki won 6-3, 6-4, a scoreline which may flatter the Dane because it suggests an easier victory than it was. Perhaps it wasn't difficult in terms of the tennis played, but given the fact that Sharapova had a 2-0 head-to-head record against against Wozniacki and the fighting spirit of Sharapova, it was a stern test.

It was clear that Wozniacki had been in a dogfight against Sharapova and that match could well turn out to be a defining moment in her career. She proved she could go toe-to-toe with one of the greatest competitors in the women's game, but it all means nothing when you don't leave New York with the title.

In all honesty, I had expected to be putting the finishing touches on this article on Sunday morning because, at the very least, I expected her to reach the final. Wozniacki, alas, was defeated in the semifinals by Vera Zvonareva, a player she had beaten quite easily in the Rogers Cup final a few weeks ago.

In the semifinal, Wozniacki looked like a different player, something that she admitted herself after the match. It's possible that the pressure that had been mounting got a little too much. Winning the recent tournaments in Montreal and New Haven could have hampered her physical well-being, but if that's the case, then fitness is something she would clearly have to work on. Or, as is sometimes the case, she had an off-day.

No matter what the reason was, it's imperative to keep things in perspective. She has had a good year to date with four titles to add to her resumé. In the three majors prior to the U.S. Open, she had career-best results. In Australia and at Wimbledon, she equaled her best result by reaching the fourth round, and she reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros.

Wozniacki is becoming a very well-rounded player with very few weaknesses. She has the ability to hit the ball well off both wings and she's adept at adding a variety of spins to the ball. Where the Dane may struggle is really going in for the kill and imposing herself on her opponent. While she is more than capable of doing so against lesser opposition, she can become quite timid against the better players.

Some people may get on her back by saying that this was her best chance to win a major for the foreseeable future, especially since the likes of Serena Williams and Justine Henin were absent. I, on the other hand, believe that she demonstrated a lot that she has to offer throughout the U.S. Open and she should now be a contender at majors in the future. At 20-years-old, she is developing nicely and it's important to remember that reaching the pinnacle of the game can be an exhaustive process. One need look no further than this year's French Open champion, Francesca Schiavone, to see that.

Posted by Luke Broadbent at 12:24 PM | Comments (2)

September 13, 2010

Pryor: More Than Meets the (Buck)Eye

Hype.

It's the one word that is probably most affiliated with Ohio State's star quarterback, junior Terrelle Pryor. But perhaps that is inevitable since Pryor arrived at the perennial powerhouse in Columbus as the consensus No.1 rated high school player in the country in 2008. His decision of where he planned to play football was called "the most anticipated in history" according to Sports Illustrated. LeBron James may have taken over that title with his recent decision, but it's Pryor's talents that have been consistently evolving ever since.

As a freshman, the 6'6", 233-pound Pryor simply thought he could rely on what got him all the hype to begin with — his raw and unparalleled athleticism. In high school at Jeannette (PA), he became the first player in Pennsylvania history to run for 4,000 yards and also throw for 4,000 yards, leading his team to a state championship in 2007. Simultaneously, he was considered a top-25 basketball prospect by most recruiting analysts.

I highly recommend a visit to YouTube to appreciate the type of freakish ability this guy had on the hardwood and the gridiron in high school. It's jaw-dropping footage inducing the "did he just do what I think he did?" response. Pryor's versatility as a dual-threat quarterback immediately brought on comparisons to Vince Young and Michael Vick. And just like that, the stage was set for Pryor to demonstrate he could be one of the top quarterbacks in the nation at Ohio State.

However, despite enjoying some success as a freshmen, including becoming only the second (Art Schlichter) true freshman to start a game at quarterback for the Buckeyes, Pryor was far from a finished product. With poor decision-making at times, and a bout with the turnover bug, coach Jim Tressel gave senior Todd Boeckman the start against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl. Even Pryor, at the end of his first year, described himself as a "running quarterback" with aspirations of becoming a "quarterback that could run."

Moreover, he wasn't winning over anyone in the locker room, either. Safety Tyler Moeller was recently quoted as saying, "When he first got here, I don't think too many people liked him, really. He was kind of a punk." Ouch. Not exactly a ringing endorsement by the upperclassmen.

Surrounded by expectations, lacking maturity, and the support of his teammates, doubters questioned Pryor's fit with the team.

Was the hype getting to Pryor? Could he provide more than just his God-given talent and become the real leader of Ohio State?

In 2009, Pryor took another step in his evolution and answered the critics. He led the Buckeyes to the Big Ten Title, passing for 2,094 yards and 18 TDs, while also leading the Buckeyes in rushing with 779 yards. What's more, he bounced back from an atrocious performance against Purdue earlier in the year to win the Rose Bowl against a highly-touted Oregon team. In that game, Pryor earned Rose Bowl MVP honors and gave us a glimpse of what he is capable of with 72 yards rushing and 23-of-37 passing for 266 yards and 2 TDs. His best game of the season.

With all the success of 2009 came, you guessed it — more hype. Not just for Pryor this time, but for his entire team. The 2010 Buckeyes entered their contest against Miami ranked No. 2 in the country, with national championship chatter buzzing across the college football scene.

Regardless of the talk coming from the media, Pryor seems more poised than ever to handle all the expectations. No longer relying purely on his legs to escape trouble in the pocket, the Heisman Trophy candidate has improved his throwing motion by coming over the top more. Additionally, his hard work this offseason demonstrated to his teammates that he has matured and become a true leader. Tyler Moeller reiterated this by declaring, "Now I have the utmost respect for him. He's a great player and a great leader and I'd follow him into battle any day."

Pryor has the respect of his teammates and the mentality of a champion. He wasn't just content with what he was given or what people told him he could be. He went out and put the sweat in to get the results he wanted. For that, you have to admire the guy. You also have to wonder if there will be a couple of new words more closely associated with Pryor by the end of this season: Heisman winner.

Posted by Justin Shagrin at 5:36 PM | Comments (11)

The Friars' Forecast is Favorable

Los Angeles is quite pleasant this time of year. Unless you're a Dodgers fan.

Oh well. At least the weather's nice.

Approximately 115 miles away, there lies a town experiencing the baseball equivalent of an old-timey revival. You might have heard something about that. But while this may be Southern California, it most certainly is not Hollywood.

You're not going to find a lot of marquee names on this team. Sure, anyone who pays the least bit of attention to ESPN or FOX Sports has heard the name Adrian Gonzalez. For the average fan, that's probably the extent of their knowledge concerning the team to beat in the National League West.

For most of the 2010 season, it seems there's been a collective anticipation that the other shoe could drop at any moment concerning the San Diego Padres. And while we wait, and wait, and wait some more, the Pads keep winning. Perhaps stranger still, their weapon of choice has nothing to do with producing prodigious piles of souvenirs for the Friar Faithful. This team is as concrete a representative of the new small-ball philosophy pervading the professional ranks as you're going to find, and man oh man, do they ever make it work. Pitching, defense, and the timely hit are the watchwords of the year in sunny San Diego.

In stark contrast to the long-ball launching days of recent vintage, there are no home run leaders to be found in this lineup. Adrian Gonzalez, who's spent much of the last four years lofting small leather orbs into a low Earth orbit, has "only" 27 this year. To be fair, there's been a noticeable shortage of the flying four-bagger in 2010, and as such, the stalwart slugger's relatively low total is far and away enough to lead the team. Indeed, the next highest total (12) is held by noted (ahem!) power bat and RF Will Venable. Perhaps just as well; there's many a moonshot in a losing cause. Just ask the Jays.

What sets this team apart from the crowd is classic, honest-to-goodness inside baseball. While speed isn't necessarily in surplus in this lineup, they make their runs count. Three runs is as good as 10 if you're only giving up a pair to the opponent. Their team defense is staggering (61 errors, .988 fielding percentage), and it truly is a team effort. Take the outfield, for instance: no fewer than 11 fielders have made contributions in patrolling that expanse, with Venable, Tony Gwynn, Scott Hairston, and Chris Denorfia taking the lion's share of playing time, in addition to recently acquired RF Ryan Ludwick (37 games). Denorfia's 8 outfield assists lead the team, accumulated in only 79 games.

The infield is no less adept. Gonzalez and his glove need no introduction; .996 fielding percentage. Enough said. At second, but certainly not second best, the diminutive David Eckstein has yet to suffer a miscue in 93 games at the keystone, and fellow utility veteran Jerry Hairston has but 1 as a second sacker. Most of Hairston's time has been spent on the other side of the diamond, where he's made a solid showing of it at short. SS Everth Cabrera and Baltimore import Miguel Tejada have kept the muffs to a minimum (9 errors in 94 games), and 3B Chase Headley has performed admirably and in relative obscurity at third, holding down the hot corner with a workman-like approach.

As strong as they are with the glove, their pitching is even more impressive. RHP Mat Latos (14-5, NL-leading 2.21 ERA) came into 2010 with only 50 2/3 IP in his fledgling ML career, and thus was 5 2/3 innings over the limit to qualify for Rookie of the Year, which he quite possibly would have won. The free agent signing of RHP Jon Garland has payed dividends (13-11, 3.52), and lefty Clayton Richard (12-7, 3.36) could yet turn out to be the better part of the Jake Peavy trade.

While their starting rotation is strong, their relievers are outstanding. Closer Heath Bell continues to dominate opposing batters to little fanfare outside of SoCal (1.67 ERA, 40 saves in 47 games finished, 12.1 SO/9), though his compatriots labor in far more obscurity. RHP Edward Mujica issues walks almost as often as the pitching machine (6 in 237 PA), and lefty specialist Joe Thatcher strikes out fully a fourth of the batters he faces.

Long story short, here are the facts:

Team ERA: 1st
Hits allowed: 1st
Walks allowed: 4th
Pitching strikeouts: 2nd
Team fielding percentage: 3rd

Do these numbers tell the whole story? Maybe not, but they certainly hit the high points. And come October, the only number that will matter will be the number one. Because number one is exactly where they will find themselves in the NL West.

Posted by Clinton Riddle at 3:05 PM | Comments (0)

September 12, 2010

Why Roger Clemens Will Beat the Rap

On August 19, a Federal grand jury indicted Roger Clemens on six counts of lying to Congress and obstructing their investigation of the use of performance-enhancing drugs in baseball, to which he responded with an emphatic, "not guilty." The trial has been set for April 5.

After a summer when the pursuit of chemically-enabled milestones of admitted steroids users such as A-Rod and Andy Pettite bored most fans to tears, it will be game on this winter as we approach the career-defining case of Clemens, the last bastion of denial in baseball's Steroids Era. At stake is the possibility of 15 to 21 months in prison according to Federal sentencing guidelines, and Clemens has reportedly rejected at least one plea offer. It's an all-in bet for the seven-time Cy Young winner, who slides his freedom across the table like the last stack of chips for a chance to win the pot: the ability to preserve his legacy from the stain of proven lies. And it's a bet that may pay off.

NBC Sports' Hardball Talk blog calls it a "puncher's chance" for Clemens, but defense attorney Leonard Milligan of Boston-based Milligan Coughlin LLC goes it one better. "This is a very triable case," he recently told a radio audience on Boston's 98.5 The Sports Hub.

Unlimited financial resources can do that. We saw it in 1994, when O.J. Simpson assembled a legal Dream Team and earned an acquittal on criminal charges. Clemens now appears ready to do the same. He recently added San Diego attorney Michael Attanasio — who navigated the Padres through the Mitchell Commission investigation — to Rusty Hardin's defense. More will come, and there are plenty of holes in the prosecution's case for them to rip wide open.

Topping the list is the physical evidence. Defense attorney Milligan for one doesn't believe the used syringes and gauzes prosecution witness Brian McNamee stored in a beer can in his attic for seven years will be admissible. Issues of chain of custody and preservation of evidence render it scientifically non-credible and we haven't even wrestled with McNamee's motive, which will be made to look like a shakedown. Neither will testimony contained in the Mitchell Report be admissible since it was gathered outside of court and is considered hearsay evidence.

So how about Clemens' success late in his career, which contradicts reams of historical trends to the contrary? For admissibility, circumstantial evidence must make an inference that leads to a conclusion. After going 40-39 in his last four years in Boston, prompting then Red Sox GM Dan Duquette to declare him in the twilight of his career, Clemens signed with the Toronto Blue Jays, where he met trainer Brian McNamee, an admitted PED dispenser. He went on to win 149 games and four Cy Youngs over the next nine years — all beyond the age of 34, all after meeting McNamee, who claims to have injected him with Winstrol on multiple occasions in those early years of their relationship. Since his subsequent performance defies history — he's the oldest player to ever win baseball's top pitching honor — the inference is that it wasn't intrinsic. Milligan, however, feels this evidence is too far down the ladder of inference for any relevance and, therefore, admissibility.

Then there is the testimony of eye witnesses. Much of the defense's strategy will be in attacking the credibility of McNamee, and they've been given a lot to work with. He's an admitted drug dealer, an acknowledged liar, and in 2000 he wrote a New York Times editorial defending "bigger, faster, stronger" as the product of technological advances and work ethic rather than steroids, even as he was shooting Clemens in the butt. By the time Hardin and Attanasio get done, there will only be Andy Pettite standing in the way of Roger's acquittal. Still wondering why the two are no longer friends?

Pettite is a significant hurdle for the defense. Despite being stingy with the truth about his own PED use, he has an inherent credibility that both Clemens and McNamee lack. Even Pete Rose believes Pettite, so what more could the prosecution ask for?

There are also Clemens' own actions. The doctrine of 'consciousness of guilt' is the prosecution's best weapon in a perjury case. It allows them to introduce testimony concerning the defendant's actions after an alleged crime that proves the defendant knew he or she was guilty of something. It's what brought down former New Jersey Net Jayson Williams when he removed his bloody suit and jumped into a swimming pool after accidentally shooting his chauffeur. In Clemens' case, the prosecution will look at the defendant's retention of McNamee as his personal trainer after the latter was dismissed as Yankees strength and conditioning coach, and the 2008 telephone call he taped with McNamee. Both could demonstrate the consciousness of his guilt.

Nevertheless, the presumption of innocence Clemens enjoys as defendant, together with the probable inadmissibility of physical evidence, credibility issues of a key prosecution witness, and the questionable relevance of circumstantial evidence, will make daunting the Assistant U.S. Attorney's task of proving his guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.

Of course, that only works with a 12-person jury. Popular opinion weighs all evidence it is given, and that court has already returned its verdict. Nothing will be overturned by the success of Hardin and Attanasio, which makes you wonder why Clemens doesn't learn from Pete Rose's mistakes, cop to a plea, and ask for our unending mercy. It seems to be working for A-Rod and Pettite, and it may get both admitted into the Hall of Fame one day if the BBWAA can reconcile itself to this dark era in the sport.

As it is now, Clemens will be joining Rose as one of the game's most prolific players whose legacy is not passed with his bust in Cooperstown, but rather, by his autograph sold at memorabilia shops in Las Vegas.

Posted by Bob Ekstrom at 6:48 PM | Comments (5)

September 11, 2010

Zvonareva Wins, But Rules Lose

Until now, there really wasn't a lot to write about at the U.S. Open. Now I'm a little steamed.

I am happy to see that women's professional tennis has another player to add to the contender's list at the majors. Congratulations to Vera Zvonareva for making your second consecutive major final. I applauded your run at Wimbledon this year, and am happy to see that you are beginning to live up to all the potential many saw in you.

I am, however, quite upset with the semifinal match yesterday between Caroline Wozniacki and Zvonareva. Yes, I sort of picked Caroline to win the whole tournament, and she killed my draw (it's okay, I'm not out too much). And kudos to her for lighting up the U.S. Open Series this summer and coming in as the No. 1 seed.

During the second and final set, Zvonareva broke a string. She went to her chair to retrieve another racket, and again, very quickly broke another string. Afte that point, she again went to her chair to retrieve a racket, and found one of the unused ones to also have a broken string. Vera has a commanding 4-2 lead in the second set and it appeared that she had run out of rackets with good strings and that all of the frames she had brought with her to the court now had broken strings.

Here is where it gets tricky, and started me scrambling. As a former player and coach myself, I know the rules of tennis well. It is clear in the rules that a player is not granted extra time to retrieve a racket or to remedy a broken racket. That is a violation and the penalty system for match delays should go into effect.

Zvonareva took an extended time to speak with the chair umpire and to complain about her rackets. At one point, she complained, opened a new racket, walked back to the baseline, and then noticed a bad string and walked back to her chair and the umpire to show him. After discussion with the chair umpire, the umpire had some discussion with the ball persons and on-court USTA/WTA Tour personnel and two more rackets were brought in from off-court.

The rules are clear you get 20 seconds between points. This particular issue went well past 20 seconds. The chair umpire should have allowed her to get replacements, but she should have been assessed at least one violation. Would that have changed the match outcome? Maybe.

Zvonareva is one of the most temperamental players on the WTA Tour. For several years, the only thing standing in her way to this level of play was her lack of mental control. On numerous occasions over the years, she has had mental meltdowns on the court and I have witnessed at least two where tears flowed steadily. The smallest things can set Vera off and have upset her game enough in the past to take matches she was winning handily and allow her to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. She was beginning to show that here, too, as she argued and appealed to the umpire about the broken strings in her racket. I wonder what would have happened if he had assessed her a violation like the rules clearly state.

I'm also curious about the fact that equipment was brought into the court by a third party. I know that this is the USTA's crown jewel, and if it is at all possible to keep play "nice," they will. Here's where to me it also got sticky. Her coach at one point brought one of the rackets to the side of the court. Since coaching is specifically banned, and even under the rules adopted by the WTA when coaching was allowed, it was not allowed during games, is a coach bringing a racket to a player a coaching violation? In effect, the coach is assisting the player in play by doing so. So it's a violation according to the rules, at least the way I read them. The chair and tournament umpire missed that, too.

The proper thing to do in this case would have been to allow Zvonareva to leave the court herself with a tournament official, retrieve the racket from the tournament stringing booth, and return. Since she would have interrupted play, she would have been assessed code violations and point penalties. That might have allowed Caroline Wozniacki to regroup and turn this match around in her favor.

One thing I can say for sure is that the USTA in 2010 has really bent over backwards to try to not enforce any of the rules of tennis, especially if they upset a marquee player. After Serena Williams' tirade last year and all the ire the USTA received for doing the correct things, there was obviously large discussions going into the tournament and different instructions were given by the USTA to the chair umpires this year.

That was clear in Andy Roddick's second round loss when he was called for a foot fault. When Andy went on his usual tirade (because he was losing and Janko Tipsarevic had an answer for his serve and forehand) after having a foot fault called, the chair umpire had the line official removed from the court. Roddick asked the official which foot he had faulted and the official stated, "right."

Well, that was obviously incorrect, as it was clearly his left foot that had touched the line and was the cause of the foot fault call. But of course Andy went ballistic and to placate him, the chair umpire clearly made sure that that official was not around for the rest of the match. Roddick had another foot fault called a few games later and in watching the replays, I saw several that weren't called. So Andy was having a bad day, but the USTA didn't want to upset the apple cart.

So I'm wondering now did the USTA make a conscious decision during the women's semifinal to ignore the rules as they stand? In this case, and in my mind, that clearly would have changed the texture of the match and I might still have Wozniacki in my draw. I'll leave it up to the experts to discuss and decide. I'd love to know if I'm the only one who noticed this, too.

Okay, so on to Super Saturday. I'm hoping Kim Clijsters can repeat as champion. After dispatching Venus Williams in true champions style, I can't see it any other way. Then again, I didn't pick Zvonareva to be here.

Posted by Tom Kosinski at 8:27 AM | Comments (0)

September 10, 2010

Once More ... With Purpose

I've got to be honest. Basketball is not at the forefront of most people's minds right now. The opening of the college football season this past weekend, along with the impending explosion of the NFL on our TV sets this coming weekend, makes the hoop seem as small as a tennis ball.

Come to think of it, the mid-point of the U.S. Open in New York has the roundball feeling as light as a golf ball.

Huh. As I speak, the continuation of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup playoffs (as trivial as they may be to many) cause me to stare at the court, hypnotized.

While we're on the subject of spinning wheels ... okay, I guess I'm stretching this quite thin now. But what is the purpose of hyping up the rock on Labor Day?

The draft was months ago, so everyone has forgotten about it. Summer ball is finished because, frankly, it isn't summer anymore. LeBron-gate is in "stewing" mode until the season tips off. The Hall of Famers got their acknowledgements, but can only be seen in vintage video clips. I could spit a couple verses on the WNBA playoffs, but no one else would care.

It's like I'm writing on some foreign topic at the moment. Hmm...

The World Championships are going on in Turkey. However, as the U.S. team has basically steamrolled its way to winning their pool, I wonder what the purpose of this tournament is for America's hardwood fanatic.

Sure, we've had some hiccups over the last decade when it comes to representing the sport's founding country at international tournaments. But unless an Olympic medal or complete embarrassment, is at stake, I, personally, won't live or die if I don't have knowledge of every possession. The only U.S. results I was truly intrigued by last week was the squeaker over Brazil.

In the moment of writing this, I can hear the questions, complaints, and scoffs.

How can you not be interested in how our country is represented?

I got over the "dominance" ideal years ago. I know that the U.S. invented the game. I also know that I'm not excited to tune in if we win every game by 60. The Dream Team came around once, and it was special. Now, with more talent spread across the globe, the competition should get better. And even though the U.S. hasn't won this event since 1994, most of the teams at this year's reincarnation can't even threaten the Americans yet. When they do, my interest might ping a little more.

What about scouting other talented players from around the world?

The aforementioned Dream Team didn't start International wheels in motion, they just accelerated them. Players such as Dikembe Mutombo, Manute Bol, Detlef Schrempf, and Rik Smits were already in the league by the 1992 Summer Olympics. Once the U.S. team rolled through Barcelona, every other country looked at themselves and said, "we gotta improve."

Increasingly, doors opened and the second round of the draft has now become full of "project" picks that can develop over in the Euroleague for a couple of years, their stateside franchises hoping to reap the benefits of any possible improvement. With this day's over indulgence of scouting, acknowledgement of the European counterparts, and introduction of the NBDL, the "Worlds" has become just another showcase.

Of course you couldn't get excited about this event. You could never play in it.

Very true. I'm a scrub compared to most people who can pick up a ball, let alone dribble it. Unfortunately, I don't think the guys that are playing over in Turkey right now would put this trophy as the biggest accomplishment of their career, if they can help it. My question to them ... if you could have one, and only one, title, which would it be: world champion, Olympic gold medalist, or NBA champion?

The commonality between the Worlds and the Olympics is that both occur every four years, with the Championships sliding in the middle of each Olympic cycle. This year's squad is more of a youth movement, with Kevin Durant, Derrick Rose, and Eric Gordon leading the way. However, when this team reconvenes in London two Summers from now, how many of these players will actually be battling for Olympic gold? My preference ... I'd take this year off and work my tail off to get an Olympic coin presented to me in Merry Ol' England.

Now we get the the O'Brien Trophy. Even though this trinket is an annual prize, I believe I'd be safe in saying that it's the most coveted by any basketball player. I dare you to ask Kobe Bryant if he would want to give back any of his five rings for a world championship. I dare you to say that Charles Barkley, Patrick Ewing, or Reggie Miller are better off with their medals than they would be with an image of themselves holding that gold ice cream cone-esque statuette.

While I believe these players do feel honored to represent their country in a global event, this isn't the pinnacle of their craft. And that feeling has trickled down to the foreign contributors to the Association over the last couple of decades. They may have wanted to display national pride for their countries, but the destination for everyone from Dirk Nowitzki to Steve Nash to Yao Ming was one of the 30 top franchises here.

All this said, I don't think that this event should be completely hidden under the rug. Like the World Cup, this tournament has importance worldwide. Unlike the world's longest party (at least in my mind), I feel that the basketball championships are utilized as a way to grow the game and the talent around the globe. So, this does have purpose ... elsewhere.

It may be unfortunate that I can't get psyched for this tournament. Our actual lack of success (three victories in 15 championships) should give my national pride a chip on its shoulder. But this is a case of something knowing what it is. The dream of the kid swishing shots on the blacktops of New York, Chicago, or L.A. isn't to fly across the planet to beat out Iran and Tunisia for a trophy. That might be a great benefit, but that's not the goal. That's not the purpose.

Posted by Jonathan Lowe at 3:17 PM | Comments (0)

September 9, 2010

College Football is Back in Big Way

Labor Day weekend is, I submit, the most packed weekend in sports. College football kicks off, the NFL has its preseason in full swing, it's historically an "international match date" weekend in soccer (where the clubs have to release their players to play for their national teams), the U.S. Open in tennis is underway, the pennant race and the FedEx Cup race enter their final act, and there is usually one extra outlier to consider (the FIBA World Basketball Championships, in this case).

I love it. I make ambitious plans to watch all of it, even the sports I only pay a minimum of attention to, with the aid of a fistful of amphetamines.

In the end, though, I invariably stay off the drugs and stick to my favorites on the weekend, which is college football with soccer coming in a distant second.

In Europe, this was the first full weekend of qualifying for Euro 2012, and there were upsets galore. Georgia held World Cup participant Greece to a draw — in Greece. Cyprus held World Cup participant Portugal to a draw (a 4-4 thriller) — in Portugal. But France was actually beaten at home by Belarus. Their exit of ignominy from the World Cup did not figure to get any worse. It did.

But as much as I love soccer and the sports gluttony of Labor Day weekend, it's all just the icing on the cake of the college football. Oh, how I missed you so. I saw a ton of games, just like I like to.

I understand journalism and I understand the need to create talking points. But please, can we hold off on declaring that TCU and Boise State will inevitably finish unbeaten now that they defeated the ostensible toughest opponent they will face all season? Boise State still has to beat Oregon State and TCU still has Utah. But it's Week 1. We don't know jack yet. At least one of the teams in the top five will flop and lose four games or more. Other teams will have excellent seasons but look past that one unranked opponent. Let's play the games, shall we?

Ohio State often looks shaky in their early season matches against the dregs of college football, but wow, not this time. They started rolling downhill at the end of last year when they finally defeated a top-10 team after several years of being unable to, and now it appears it will take one of those fluky upsets to stop them.

The same cannot be said for USC, who look every bit like a team hit hard with sanctions and coming off a four-loss season. Five years ago, they also opened up at Hawaii, and won by 46. This time, they won by 13 ... after they knocked Hawaii's starting QB out of the game and after Hawaii got hosed on a bad call that cost them four points.

I've come to enjoy the annual Week 1 game between Illinois and Missouri, played in St. Louis and called the Arch Rivalry (get it?).

Illinois made more of a game of it than they did last year, but once again came up short. Freshman QB Nathan Scheelhaase, who belongs in the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars, took his team into the locker room at halftime up by 10 and having gone 5-for-8 passing against a good defense. The announcers were giddy and declaring that Illinois has found their replacement for Juice Williams.

In the second half, Scheelhaase was 4-for-15 with 2 picks, and the Illini lost by 10. They have lost every game in the modern day "Arch Rivalry" and this was the end of the road — the series has not been renewed for the foreseeable future. The best quarterback debut for an Illinois team (as a starter anyway) was Dan Persa, who went a staggering 19-of-21 in Northwestern's win over Vanderbilt.

But I'm an upset connoisseur, and there were two gems in that realm Saturday. The first was North Dakota State defeating Kansas, 6-3. Though Kansas out-gained NDSU, this was not a fluke result and it's quite possible that the Bison are straight-up a better team than Kansas.

Is that meant as praise for North Dakota State, or an insult to Kansas? Both. North Dakota State is the Boise State of Division 1-AA (yes, I still will not call it "the FCS"). They have already taken down a Division 1-A scalp (yes, I will still not call it "the FBS"), beating Minnesota in 2007 after nearly doing so in 2006. They made the jump from Division II just six years ago and have already have a conference title in the 1-AA ranks and have earned a promotion to the swankier Missouri Valley Conference.

On the other hand, Kansas's football relevance is over, over, over, over, over. Their glory years of 2005-2008 might as well have been 1905-1908. They lost their last seven games last year, coach Mark Mangino resigned in a cloud of controversy, and Kansas is one of those schools that demonstrates that, although football non-powers can have great seasons, when they fall, they fall hard.

With a school like Michigan, you sort of know that eventually, they will be a national title contender again. The same assumption cannot be made about a program like Kansas. Another good example is Washington State, staring down the barrel of a third straight year of being perhaps the worst team in the BCS conferences. They had three straight 10-win seasons earlier in the decade.

But the game of the day and the upset of the day was surely Jacksonville State's victory over Ole Miss. Yes, it's always great when a 1-AA school knocks off any 1-A school. And it's awesome that they scored a touchdown in overtime on what could have been their last play — 4th-and-15 from their own 30, needing a touchdown to stay alive. And it seems like God Himself must have intervened when, going for the two-pointer and the win, JSU quarterback Coty Blanchard threw what was the shortest Hail Mary ever thrown, an up-for-grabs flip as he was being dragged down by a defender, and it was caught by one of his teammates.

That's all very cool. But what pushes this game to "historic" for me is that JSU was down 31-13 heading to the fourth quarter. Division 1-AA schools sometimes beat 1-A schools. But they never, I mean never, come from way behind to do it. If they do it, they were in it all game.

The esteemed college basketball guru Ken Pomeroy covered similar ground in his blog, with a statistical analysis over a two-part series of the least likely comebacks in college basketball last year, not only because the winning team came from well behind, but because the winning team by most measures was an inferior team to the loser.

This game would make his computer blow up. Mississippi coach Houston Nutt called it the worse loss he ever dealt with as a coach. For winning coach Jack Crowe, it was serendipity. He was fired from Arkansas after losing to Division 1-AA The Citadel in 1992. His recruiting coordinator and assistant head coach? Houston Nutt.

Posted by Kevin Beane at 6:23 PM | Comments (1)

NASCAR Top 10 Power Rankings: Week 25

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

1. Kevin Harvick — With 72 laps remaining at Atlanta, Harvick suffered a flat left-front tire, which eventually shredded before he could reach the pits, severely damaging the left fender of the No. 29 Shell/Pennzoil Chevy. Harvick eventually finished 33rd, 16 laps behind, but maintains a sizeable lead in the point standings, with a 219 cushion over Jeff Gordon.

"I may be a favorite for the Cup title," Harvick said, "but it remains to be seen whether my regular season magic carries over into the Chase. I'm sure the magic will be there Saturday night at Richmond, when after the race, I'll make my points lead vanish into thin air."

2. Jimmie Johnson — Johnson officially clinched a spot in the Chase with a third in the Emory Healthcare 500, capturing his ninth top-five finish of the year. Johnson is now seventh in the Sprint Cup point standings, and with five wins this year, will likely start the Chase tied with Denny Hamlin on top.

"We still have plenty of work to do if I'm to claim my fifth consecutive Cup championship," Johnson said. "But we're not afraid of work. Obviously, with four consecutive Cup titles, what we've done in the past 'works.'

"I reiterated my belief that Kevin Harvick is the favorite to take home the Sprint Cup. By saying that, I place all the pressure on Harvick and none on myself. So I like my chances. Everybody knows that Jimmie Johnson is hard to beat under pressure."

3. Tony Stewart — Stewart took charge on the final restart and pulled away from Carl Edwards, validating a dominating day at Atlanta with the win in the Emory Healthcare 500. Stewart led 176 of 325 laps, and claimed his first win since October 2009 at Kansas. He improved two places in the point standings to fourth, and trails Kevin Harvick by 283.

"Now, when discussion centers on my last win," Stewart said, "it's safe to say 'we're not in Kansas anymore.'"

"Now it seems that I'm everyone's favorite to win the Cup. That's after one win that came 25 races into the season. It's all hard for me to digest and comprehend, because I've never been anyone's favorite anything."

4. Kyle Busch — Busch overcame an early pit road speeding penalty to finish fifth at Atlanta, his seventh top-five result of the year. Nabbed by NASCAR on lap 49, Busch was sent to the rear of the field. Not long after, a troubling vibration sent him to the pits, from which he emerged 34th, one lap down. Later, with one of the fastest cars on the track, Busch roared back for a solid finish and clinched his spot in the Chase.

"The only thing more satisfying to me than 'punching a ticket,'" Busch said, "is punching Brad Keselowski. I should consider it. A wise man once told me that a true rivalry in NASCAR is borne of an exchange of punches, not punchlines."

5. Carl Edwards — Edwards continued his recent surge (seven top-10s in his last eight races) with a runner-up in the Emory Healthcare 500. Edwards led 32 laps in the No. 99 Aflac Fusion, but ultimately was no match for Tony Stewart, who pulled away on the final restart for the convincing victory.

"Although victory has eluded me," Edwards said, "these solid finishes are a clear indication that we'll see victory soon enough. So you could say we're 'peeking' at the right time."

"I like our chances to win the championship. Sure, with no wins, we'll be starting at the bottom of the field, but as someone who has seen his share of probations, I know what it's like starting in a hole."

6. Jeff Gordon — After running as high as fourth at Atlanta, Gordon faded to a disappointing finish of 13th, derailed by poor-handling and shaky restarts. He remains second in the Sprint Cup point standings, and trails Kevin Harvick by 219.

"We've got one more shot for victory before the Chase starts in New Hampshire," Gordon said. "We've been nothing more than average this year, and with no wins thus far, we've truly put the 'regular' in 'regular season.'"

7. Denny Hamlin — Hamlin started from the pole and led 74 laps early at Atlanta, but a blown engine on lap 143 ended his day. Three of Hamlin's last four finishes have been 34th or worse, and although he's clinched a spot in the Chase For the Cup, there is doubt that he can rekindle the momentum from an earlier stretch that saw him win five times in 10 races.

"For someone who's likely to be in the lead when the Chase commences," Hamlin said, "we haven't been very impressive lately. But, after finishing 43rd on Sunday, you could say we made a 'last'-ing impression."

"The No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota was fast early, but ultimately, our day was like a bad haircut — not long enough."

8. Jeff Burton — Burton finished fourth at Atlanta, taking advantage of a late caution to change four tires, thus allowing him to charge through the field. It was Burton's fifth top-5 finish of the year, and he improved one place in the point standings to sixth, 324 behind Kevin Harvick.

"I owe a lot of credit to my pit crew," Burton said. "With the pressure on, they came through with quick stops and timely adjustments. In times past, when we've beaten ourselves in the pits, I haven't been so complimentary. On those occasions, the No. 31 team was living proof that, like a true feline, a 'Cat' can lick itself."

9. Kurt Busch — After missing the setup for Sunday's race in Atlanta, Busch and the No. 2 Miller Lite team struggled with handling for a majority of the race. But constant adjustments throughout the night, as well as a key decision to stay on the track during a lap 265 caution, finally paid off with track position. Busch finished sixth, his 15th top-10 result of the year, and officially locked up a spot in the Chase.

"It's one thing to be earmarked for purely cosmetic reasons," Busch said. "But another to be earmarked for the Chase For the Cup. I'm two for two in the '2.'"

"But I have just as good of a chance to win this thing as the next guy, assuming, by 'next guy,' you're referring to Jeff Burton. He's a threat, for sure, but only to behave like a true gentleman."

10. Clint Bowyer — Bowyer, in the No. 33 BB&T Chevrolet, posted a solid seventh-place finish at Atlanta, one place ahead of Ryan Newman, his closest pursuer for the 12th and final spot in the Chase. Barring a major catastrophe, Bowyer will lock up the final Chase spot at Richmond.

"It's a safe bet to say I'll make the Chase," Bowyer said, "so bet the farm. If disaster strikes and I fail to qualify, then I will have bought the farm."

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 11:31 AM | Comments (0)

September 8, 2010

NFL Weekly Predictions: Week 1

Note: the quotes in this article are fictional.

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-2½)

Are you ready for some football? It's a question asked all over the country, and sure to get a quick answer, unless you happened to ask Brett Favre. After weeks of waffling, limping, shucking, and jiving, Favre was convinced to return when teammates Jared Allen, Steve Hutchinson, Ryan Longwell, and head coach Brad Childress flew to Mississippi to beg for Favre-giveness.

"By golly," Childress said. "I heard it was a heck of a lot easier to get Daunte Culpepper on a boat than it was to get Favre on a plane. And easier to get off, as well."

"Thank heavens it was Favre's ankle on which his return hinged. Can you imagine the confusion and turmoil had it been 'Brett Favre's back?'"

I'm not sure what you did to hasten Favre's return, but you said a mouthful, Chilly.

Las Vegas odds makers established the Saints at 8-1 to win Super Bowl XLV, just behind the 13-2 number given the Colts, who the Saints beat in Super Bowl XLIV. Sure, eight-to-one sounds pretty good, if you're the Lions, Rams, or Chiefs, or if you're estimating the female-to-male ratio at a Tiger Woods orgy, but for the Saints, defending Super Bowl champions, it's much too high.

"Those odds are high," Sean Payton, "but nowhere near as high as the odds of Brett Favre and Peyton Manning throwing game-winning, at least for the Saints, passes last year. That had to be 1,000-1. Last year, everything fell into place for us. Or, more specifically, you could say everything fell into Tracy Porter's hands."

Things are no different this year. Favre's first pass is intercepted by Porter, and the Saints cash in immediately with a Pierre Thomas score. Faced with a 14-0 deficit, and without Sidney Rice, Favre again threatens retirement, unless the Vikes broker a deal for Vincent Jackson.

New Orleans wins, 27-21.

Cleveland @ Tampa Bay (-1½)

Jake Delhomme will face a familiar foe when the Browns travel to Raymond James Stadium, a place where Delhomme, as a Carolina Panther, lofted many a pass up for grabs. So, like two Panther cheerleaders intertwined in a carnal embrace in a bathroom stall inside a seedy Tampa bar, you could say Delhomme is familiar with the "turf."

"Indeed," Delhomme said, "they don't call Tampa bars watering holes for nothing. But I'm thrilled to be a Brown, and the Browns are thrilled to have me. I'm concerned, though, about how Browns fans will accept me. Fortunately, I'm following in the tiny footsteps of Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, so unless I play horribly, or go play for Miami, I expect Cleveland fans to treat me like a king."

The Bucs and head coach Raheem Morris look to improve on last year's 3-13 record, and, as optimists like to say, "build on that foundation." Morris has given the Tampa "Cover 2" defense his own personal touch, sprinkling it with features slightly different than those of former coordinator Monte Kiffin.

"Monte certainly left his mark here," Morris said, "and we're working diligently to jettison that smell from the coaches' offices."

"A 3-13 record leaves plenty to 'build' on. Perhaps a 'room for improvement' would be a good start. But we all know Tampa is better than a 3-13 record would indicate. Our goal is to return this franchise to the caliber of teams in its glory days when Tampa dominated their division and Warren Sapp terrorized offenses with his play and tobacco-stained uniform. Those are the Bucs we aspire to be. Until then, my brand of tough love dictates that I tell these players they're not 'worth a Buc.'"

Delhomme has looked good in the preseason, and, much like a bucket of Bojangles fried chicken, he's well-seasoned. In other words, he's nearly led the Panthers to a Super Bowl victory, but he's also thrown five interceptions in a single playoff game. Expect something closer to the latter against the Bucs.

Tampa wins, 20-13.

Miami @ Buffalo (+3)

What's hot in Miami, besides the escapades of the hot-tubbing, club-hopping, gelato-scooping wops of the Jersey Shore gang? Well, the arrival of Brandon Marshall, expected to be Miami's big-play threat and ticket back into the playoffs, is creating quite a buzz. Marshall was acquired for the Broncos for a 2010 second-round pick and a 2011 second-round pick, plus baggage to be realized later.

"People aren't quite sure what to make of the 'Brandon Marshall experiment,'" Marshall said. "It's more than an experiment, it's a way of life. Unlike Snookie, I'm no 'guinea pig.'"

"I look forward to playing for Tony Sparano. I support all Italian-Americans, and I'm a loyal, card-carrying member of the Grenade-Free Foundation."

The Dolphins will face the Bills, a team in transition, with a new coach, Chan Gailey, taking over for the pink slip-wearing Dick Jauron. With a loyal fan base, as well as the musical backing of hometown icons the Goo Goo Dolls and dynamic weapon C.J. Spiller, Gailey will try to restore the Bills to AFC East relevance.

"I like our 'Chan-ces,'" said Gailey. "Spiller is the most dangerous offensive weapon Buffalo's had in a while. He's a cross between O.J. Simpson and Thurman Thomas. When his career is done, I expect him to end up somewhere between the Hall of Fame and total disgrace."

Spiller is impressive in his regular-season debut, scoring on a 24-yard screen pass. But Marshall scores twice for the 'Fins, easing a contentious relationship with Miami general manager Jeff Ireland, forged earlier when Marshall asked if Ireland's mother was a prostitute.

Miami wins, 24-19.

Cincinnati @ New England (-6)

After a sweep of their AFC North opponents and a division crown last year, the Bengals are looking for more in 2010. A humiliating home defeat to the Jets in the wild card round left them with very little to show for their season, save for thousands of Tweets courtesy of social-networking prodigy Chad Ochocinco.

True to form, talk so far centers not on the Patriots, but on Ochocinco's vow to celebrate a touchdown in New England by firing a Minutemen rifle, as is done when the Pats score.

"Ochocinco's got millions of followers," said Marvin Lewis, "but very few believers. I love it when Ochocinco talks strategy, though, like his plans to fire a Minuteman rifle. But let's face it, Chad with a gun is much like his trivial, meaningless updates on Twitter — it's bad news."

In New England, the Patriots are coming off a stinging 33-14 playoff loss to the Ravens, and a strong statement against the AFC North champion Bengals would send a signal loud and clear that the Pats will be a team to be reckoned with. Randy Moss is in a contract year, entering the final year of his four year deal with the Patriots, and Tom Brady is close to signing a massive extension.

"This may be my last contract year," Moss said. "but it's definitely not my first, which came after my freshman year at Marshall. Ah, the good old days, when you negotiated your own contract. Mine was incentive-laden. We weren't called the 'Thundering Herb' for nothing."

Alas, Moss has expressed unhappiness at not having a contract beyond this year. History tells us that for a physically gifted, but spoiled, athlete such as Moss, it could mean he either puts out, or pouts.

Moss does both, balking at the physical play of Cincy corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph, but scoring on a spectacular one-yard jump ball from Brady. It's not enough, as the Bengals manhandle the Pats with the AFC North brand of rough-housing from which the Pats shy away.

Cincinnati wins, 24-21.

Carolina @ NY Giants (-7)

If you asked Lawrence Taylor, via a phone line separated by plexiglass, to name a favorite in the NFC East race, he would likely reply that it would be "no runaway." That would be a valid assessment, as all four teams could make a legitimate claim to the division.

"You have to take L.T.'s words of wisdom with a grain of salt," Tom Coughlin said, "or a gram of cocaine. The fame of Taylor's exploits on the field is matched by the infamy of his legal problems off it. Sure, he's in Canton, but he's a habitual offender. Either way, he's been busted."

"The division crown is obviously a goal, but not our ultimate goal. That would be a Super Bowl victory. Many of my players know the prestige that comes with wearing a Super Bowl ring. I sure do. It keeps my finger warm and my job cozy."

Change is evident for the Panthers, who are now without mainstays Jake Delhomme, Brad Hoover, and Julius Peppers. What remains are head coach John Fox, in the final year of his contract, and dynamic running back duo DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, who both eclipsed 1,100 yards rushing last year.

"Hey, make way for the 'dead man walking,'" said John Fox, "and the '2 Live Crüe' running. We know it won't be easy running against the Giants and their talented and deep defensive line. But we won't shy away from passing the ball, particularly since the Giants can't defend it. He may be young, but we have faith in Matt Moore. As they say, 'When Delhomme's not your guy, and the new guy's not shy, that's a-Moor-e."

Fox is clearly living, and rhyming, on borrowed time. Eli Manning throws for 3 scores, and the G-Men subdue the Carolina running attack.

Giants win, 27-17.

Detroit @ Chicago (-6½)

Expectations are rising in Detroit, where a highly-rated draft class has the Lions faithful optimistically thinking playoffs, and, pessimistically, the third pick in next year's NFL draft. But this could be the year the Lions make the giant leap into NFC North relevancy, out of the shadows of the Packers, Vikings, and Bears, and into the realm of contenders.

"Not only is Detroit the 'Motor City,'" said Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, "it's now also the 'Matter City.' Like many things in Detroit, we had to redefine ourselves, from perennial losers to expectant winners. Ford Motor Company recovered from dark days by redefining itself. Heck, the Motor City Madman himself, Ted Nugent, did it. There was a time, long ago, when he was known only for rock and roll. Now he hangs his hat on beef jerky and two-bit bow-hunting programs. As a human, he may have devolved, but his career has evolved."

Hopes are high in Chicago, as well, with athletic freak Julius Peppers now anchoring the defense and offensive genius Mike Martz scheming to add his wizardry to the Bears offense. Martz's offense will demand more accuracy from Jay Cutler, with routes relying more on timing than on Cutler's strong arm.

"Everyone knows Cutler has a cannon for an arm," Martz said, "but you can't thread a needle with a cannon. All too often last year, Cutler emulated Ben Roethlisberger, and tried to put things where they didn't belong."

The Bears' offense clicks, and Cutler throws 3 touchdowns, limiting his interceptions to 1. A satisfied Lovie Smith, who served as Martz's defensive coordinator in St. Louis, gushes when asked by a reporter about Martz's contribution, simply replying 'works for me.'"

Chicago wins, 31-27.

Atlanta @ Pittsburgh (+2½)

With Ben Roethlisberger suspended for four games and Byron Leftwich injured, quarterbacking duties in Pittsburgh fall to Dennis Dixon. With Roethlisberger relegated to an onlooker for four games, he's offered his assistance to Dixon in any way necessary to prepare the former Oregon star for this crucial four-game stretch.

"We didn't expect to have to call on Dennis so early," Mike Tomlin said. "But with Leftwich's knee injury and Ben's conduct issues, I guess you could say we made a 'knee-jerk' reaction."

"Dennis has shown a great willingness to learn, although he balked at a cram session with Ben in a locked bathroom."

The Falcons are primed to challenge the favored Saints for the NFC South crown, led by Matt Ryan's strong right arm, Michael Turner's powerful thighs, Tony Gonzalez's supple hands, and the gray-haired leadership of Mike Smith, a man with a name so generic, he was "Common" long before Lonnie Rashied Lynn, Jr. (no relation to Loretta) wisely adopted a stage name and became "Common," the rapper.

"I 'un-Common-ed' myself long ago," Smith said. "I've moved on. Just call me 'Whitebread.' The name may be bland, but the Falcons are anything but. And unless there's a law against being incredibly polite, Matt Ryan won't be serving a four-game suspension. Matt's still a captain, unlike Roethlisberger, who lost the title of 'captain' due to his 'privates.'"

Dixon runs the Falcons ragged, running for 1 score and passing for another.

Pittsburgh win, 24-20.

Oakland @ Tennessee (-7)

With a new contract, the Titans satisfied, for now, the demands of their dreadlocked, golden-grilled superstar Chris Johnson, who led the NFL with 2,006 yards rushing last year. Now Johnson has vowed to rush for 2,500 yards on the ground, a lofty goal considering Eric Dickerson's record of 2,106 yards set in 1984.

"Don't even tell me to put my money where my mouth is," Johnson said, "because I already have. Usually, when I mention '2.5k,' I'm referring to the contents of my mouth, as in carats. And if I pull this off, it will cement my status as the king of NFL running backs, and I'll celebrate appropriately — with a gold crown."

While Johnson is the unquestioned offensive force for the Titans, the Raiders offense features no superstars, and will likely employ a conservative offense backed by an attacking defense. Quarterbacking duties will fall on Jason Campbell, whom Raiders owner Al Davis likened to former Raider great Jim Plunkett.

"I'm impressed," said Campbell, "that Davis remembers Jim Plunkett. I think Plunkett was the last decent player Al had a hand in acquiring. But I'll give the Raiders my best. Trust me, it takes a unique player to go from Dan Snyder to Al Davis while maintaining his sanity. That's like going from the frying pan to the frying pan."

Johnson shows flashes of brilliance, when he smiles, and rushes for 1 score, and tacks on a TD reception, as well.

Tennessee wins, 26-12.

Denver @ Jacksonville (-1½)

Tim Tebow fever is gripping Denver, and has even caught the attention of former Bronco and 11-time father Travis Henry, who's intrigued by anything that is "spreading." And the Tebow No. 15 jersey is the NFL's top-selling jersey, which, according to Jacksonville's David Garrard, can mean only one thing.

"Not since O.J. Simpson's last dash," Garrard said, "has there been this much fuss about a 'white Bronco.' Everybody knows that the only No. 15 Broncos jersey that matters is Brandon Marshall's. And he's no longer a Bronco, thanks to Josh McDaniels' master plan to trade the Broncos best players. Boy, I wish Jack Del Rio shared that philosophy."

Jacksonville's best player is undoubtedly Maurice Jones-Drew, who recently returned to practice amid reports that he had been dealing with a knee injury. Jones-Drew says his knee is fine, and reports saying otherwise are just plain false.

"Who are you gonna believe?" Jones-Drew said. "Me, or some sleazy beat reporter? You've got to ask yourself: 'Drew, or false?'"

Almost forgotten amidst the Tebow hoopla is Kyle Orton, Denver's hard-nosed quarterback who epitomizes the tough brand of football Josh McDaniels loves. Like Tebow, Orton practices abstinence. Not from sex, mind you, but from Tebow worship.

Denver wins, 23-20.

Indianapolis @ Houston (+3)

The Colts begin 2010 in a familiar position: as one of the NFL's Super Bowl favorites. As any NFL analyst worth his salt, and Jamie Dukes, will tell you, Manning's presence alone can practically give Indy a Super Bowl ticket.

"It's true," said Gary Kubiak. "Manning gives any team a good chance to win the Super Bowl, be it the Colts, or, let's say, the Saints. He's that good."

"For years, we've been building a team, piece by piece, that's capable of ending the Colts reign. At our current pace, we should reach our goal, the date of which should roughly coincide with Manning's retirement."

"But let's be serious, if we can't beat the Colts on Sunday, at Reliant Stadium, then our chances of dethroning them are about as believable as a claim that 'overtraining' can cause the presence of a fertility drug. Honestly, Brian Cushing should stop training before he tests positive for a baby."

Manning and the Colts know a win on the road in Houston won't be easy.

"For years," Manning said, "the Texans have been trying to find that one thing that could slow down the Colts. That 'one thing' wore a Colts uniform for many years. He was called Mike Vanderjagt, 'Canadian Missed.' And we know the Texans don't have him."

"And the NFL itself tried to get in on the 'Colt revolt' and slow our hurry-up offense with a well-positioned, albeit decrepit and slow umpire. Well, just a few complaints from me, and he's gone. Vincent Jackson's not the only one with a substance abuse problem. The NFL itself is 'under the influence,' of me."

Fantastic, Peyton. Now show us that lonely Super Bowl ring of yours.

Manning lights up the Texans for 308 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Colts overcome an early 13-3 deficit for a 31-27 win.

Arizona @ St. Louis (+4)

There calling this the "Damn, I Miss Kurt Warner Bowl," as two of Warner's former teams square off in an early NFC West confrontation. The Rams, with overall No. 1 pick Sam Bradford, host the Cardinals, who advanced to the Super Bowl in 2008 and the divisional round in 2009 with Warner at the helm.

"As you know," said Ken Whisenhunt, "we released Matt Leinart. So, here in Arizona, if a government official asks to see Matt's 'papers,' Matt will likely be required to show his 'walking' papers."

"Although he's answering to a higher calling, we still feel let down by Warner's departure. It's called a 'Christian Bail,' and I think it's clearly a sin to leave a team in the hands of Derek Anderson. May Warner sunburn in Helena on that mission trip to Montana."

Bradford has been named the starter for the Rams, and an impressive preseason has the city buzzing with a case of mild optimism.

"Not only is there a city anticipating my every pass," Bradford said, "but an entire nation, as well. The Cherokee nation. I'm 1/16th Cherokee, and I surely don't want to disappoint the natives, lest I leave a trail of tears."

Cardinals win, 27-21.

Green Bay @ Philadelphia (+3)

Confidence is high in Green Bay, where quarterback Aaron Rodgers leads a loaded offense, while reigning NFC Defensive Player of the Year Charles Woodson headlines a highly-rated defense. For the Packers, anything less than an NFC North title will be viewed as a failure.

"Failure is not an option," said Aaron Rodgers, "nor is the wearing of Wrangler jeans. This year, we're thinking big, and 'Super Bowl' is the answer, whether it be to the question 'what's the Packers' goal?' or to the question 'what do you call that haircut?'"

The Eagles will lay their hopes on the arm of Kevin Kolb, a fourth-year pro from the University of Houston, a player whom Andy Reid felt confident enough to entrust with the Eagles offense.

"I've got loads of confidence in Kevin," Reid said. "But even more confidence in this multi-color-coded, laminated play sheet that I actually hold a conversation with during games. One day, I pray it talks back."

Rodgers and the Packer offense jump on the Eagles quickly, scoring two first-quarter touchdowns. Kolb looks shaky against the aggressive Green Bay defense, and throws 2 interceptions, one of which is returned by Woodson for a score.

Green Bay wins, 34-24.

San Francisco @ Seattle (+2)

Pete Carroll is back in the NFL, taking over the Seahawks job that was vacated when Jim Mora, Jr. was fired just minutes after Seattle's 5-11 2009 campaign ended. Carroll was heavily courted for the job, and will be paid handsomely for it, with a five-year, $33 million contract.

"Heavily courted? Paid handsomely?" Carroll said. "What, more talk about Reggie Bush's recruitment at USC? I've said it once, and I'll say it again, this time with a straight face, that I knew nothing of the improprieties that occurred while I was in charge at USC."

"The only thing I have in common with Reggie Bush is a sex tape. Oh, how'd I'd like to add 'with Kim Kardashian' to that, but sadly, I can't. It's just another example of the lengths some coaches will go to bring a player to USC."

The 49ers are the favorites in the NFC West, and their defense, led by All-Pro linebacker Patrick Willis, is expected to be one of the NFL's best.

"I think there are great things in store for this team offensively as well," Willis said. "We've got a great running back in Frank Gore, maybe the league's fastest tight end in Vernon Davis, and a quarterback, Alex Smith, who has really improved. I'm not kidding myself when I say that Alex reminds me a great deal of Joe Montana ... from those 'Joe Montana for Shape-Ups' commercials."

Willis and the 49ers' defense offer up a rude awakening to Carroll, shutting down a Seahawk offense in dire need of firepower.

San Francisco wins, 24-13.

Dallas @ Washington (+3½)

It's tough to overlook the Redskins' addition of Donovan McNabb, but leave it to Albert Haynesworth to make that seem secondary. The massive defensive lineman failed multiple conditioning tests this summer before finally passing in mid-July, clashing with head coach Mike Shanahan along the way.

"Contrary to an oft-quoted line from The Hangover," said Shanahan, "it's not funny because he's fat. I shouldn't call Albert 'Fat;' that's disrespectful, to the real Fat Albert. So, let's just call him 'Hay-hay-hay-nesworth."

"But Albert's made a lot of progress, towards being traded to the Titans. That makes sense, because I'd love to send him right back where he came from."

"But really, this team's outlook hinges less on Haynesworth, and more on McNabb. After 11 years in Philadelphia, it's difficult, even for me, to comprehend McNabb as a Redskin. Almost as much as it is to comprehend a Muslim as president of the United States."

With the Super Bowl scheduled for early February at Cowboys Stadium, the 2010 season could be a magical one for Dallas. Or it could be another marked by disappointment, Tony Romo dating scandals, and nervous Jerry Jones visits to the Cowboy sideline.

"Let's face it," said Jones, "if we don't make it to the Super Bowl this year, it will be painfully disappointing. But it won't be unprecedented. I can't count the number of times the Cowboys had a home playoff game and didn't show up."

The Cowboys take advantage of a team in turmoil, forcing 3 Redskin turnovers, and dominating on offense.

Dallas wins, 30-17.

Baltimore @ NY Jets (-3)

Faced with the possibility of a season without All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis, the Jets may have to ultimately rely on Antonio Cromartie as the de facto stopper in the defensive backfield. Cromartie has been impressive, and coaches and teammates alike have marveled at his athleticism, a trait that can only be exceeded by his sperm count.

"Luckily," said Rex Ryan, "we got Revis signed just in time. Now he and Cromartie will give us one of the league's best cornerback tandems. On one side, you've got Darrelle patrolling 'Revis Island'; on the other, you've got Antonio supporting the 'Isle of Man-y.'"

Like the Jets, the Ravens primary concern is "secondary." Ed Reed's hip surgery, along with injuries to an already thin defensive backfield, have exacerbated an issue that many have identified as the Ravens' solitary weakness. For a team on the cusp of greatness, with a 2008 AFC championship loss and a 2009 divisional loss, it could very well be a fatal flaw.

"No one ever said getting to the 'next level' would be easy," said John Harbaugh, "although opposing offenses, once they clear the defensive line and linebackers, might very well deem it as such."

Revis shuts down Anquan Boldin, frustrating Boldin to the point that he engages in a shouting match with Todd Haley 3,000 miles away. Two Jets take-ways lead to two short, Shonn Greene rushing scores, and the Jets, along with the New Meadowlands mascot, a wacky swamp creature known as "F.U. Dungy," celebrate the Jets' first win in the stadium.

New York wins, 23-16.

San Diego @ Kansas City (+4½)

The Chargers enter the 2010 season in a familiar position: as favorites in the AFC West. But they're likely to begin that quest without two critical members of their offense, wide receiver Vincent Jackson and left tackle Marcus McNeill.

"Vincent knows how to drive a hard bargain," said Philip Rivers, "much better than he knows how to drive a car. Frankly, I'm more concerned by the absence of McNeill, whose job it is, or was, to protect my backside. As Jay Cutler would say, that's my best side."

Kansas City head coach Todd Haley has the Chiefs headed in the right direction, with their sights set on legitimately competing for the AFC West crown.

"This team is going places," Haley said, "at least eight times this year. We've got a lot riding on success, particularly our jobs. If we fail, there's likely to be more exporting than importing here in K.C."

San Diego wins, 24-21.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 7:27 PM | Comments (2)

Why is A.J. Burnett So Inconsistent?

To say the least, 2010 has been a season of inconsistency for A.J. Burnett. After his first start of the season, his ERA was 5.40. By his sixth start, it was 1.99. Ten starts later, it was 5.25. Now, after his 27th start, his ERA stands at 5.15, and unless he can bring that down over a full point (unlikely), it will be the highest of his career.

This is nothing new for Burnett. Throughout his entire career, he has been hit or miss. On any given day, he could throw a no-hitter or give up 10 runs in four innings. In fact, two starts after his no-hitter in 2001, he gave up 7 runs in 4 innings.

So what is it? Nobody doubts that he has great ability, but why has he never been able to put it together?

Those are the questions that are brewing in New York. In Toronto, nobody cared enough to answer these questions, but in the midst of a pennant race, the Yankees need to work out Burnett's issues.

To answer these questions, let's look at data for Burnett's best start and worst start this season.

Using game score as a meter, it turns out that Burnett's best start was April 29 in Baltimore, when he gave up no runs on 3 hits in 8 innings. His worst start would be August 27 in Chicago, when he pitched just 3 1/3 innings, giving up 8 earned runs.

First off, we should establish that it is just a coincidence that his best start was early in the season and his worst start was later in the season. His game-by-game results show no correlation to time whatsoever.

Furthermore, if you look at his home versus away statistics, you will find that he is better in home games (you will find the same trend with first half versus second half), but this does not explain the complete inconsistency that is present both home and away, and first half and second half.

We have established that it is not a matter of setting or time, so our only choice is to go back and examine the data of Burnett's best start and his worst start.

What you find first is that velocity is not the issue. The average speed on his fastball in his best start was less than a mile per hour slower than his worst start. The average speeds on his sinker, change-up, and knuckle-curve were all virtually the same, as well.

What about pitch selection? He threw the same percentage of sinkers and change-ups in his best and worst starts. However, he threw about 6% more fastballs in his best start, and about 6% less knuckle-curves.

As it appears, when Burnett gets in trouble, he stops throwing fastballs and starts throwing more knuckle-curves.

This is a bit puzzling. When you look at the average break on Burnett's pitches, and compare them in his best and worst starts, you find that his knuckle-curve is the pitch he had trouble with.

In Burnett's best start, the average vertical break on his knuckle-curve was -5.07, as opposed to just -1.53 in his worst start. The average break on his fastball was different in his best and worst starts, but not nearly to the extent of his knuckle-curve.

The reason this is puzzling is because, like we said before, Burnett throws more knuckle-curves when he gets in trouble. But the knuckle-curve is the pitch that he has trouble with, so why does he throw it more often?

It is a matter of the coaching staff, and Burnett himself, lacking the knowledge they need to make this adjustment. Coaches automatically assume it is a matter of mechanics, and leave out the possibility of it simply being a logical issue: throwing different pitches at a different time.

Burnett's inconsistency isn't very difficult to decipher. It is a product of not paying attention, and not properly analyzing his performance. Now, it should be noted that this is just two starts we are looking at, but something as glaring as this data should not go unnoticed. People always say that Burnett always displays talent, but never seems to put it together. They are right, now they just need to realize something very simple.

Posted by Jess Coleman at 6:59 PM | Comments (0)

September 7, 2010

Thoughts After Week 1

College football never ceases to disappoint when it comes to drama. The anticipation for this season certainly lived up to expectations in a wild first weekend and already, we've learned quite a bit from what has unfolded.

Let's take a look at a dozen things that were brought to light this past weekend.

1) Alabama is for real, again. Their defense is still young and raw, but their offense is a well-oiled machine, with or without Mark Ingram in the lineup. Their relatively easy romp over San Jose State sent a message to the SEC and the rest of the country that the Tide have no thoughts about giving up the top spot anytime soon.

2) Florida is in trouble. Big trouble. Granted, the bad snaps are going to vanish as the season goes on, but the complete and total lack of offense from the Gators against Miami (OH) sends a huge red flag up and flying in Gainesville. No one can question Urban Meyer's coaching credentials, and rest assured, he'll work tirelessly at fixing the offensive woes. But with all of that talent, to be in that much trouble doesn't spell good things about Florida.

3) One of the biggest games this year is shaping up to be Georgia vs. South Carolina. Both teams looked impressive in blowout wins over La-Lafayette and Southern Miss, respectively. I really think South Carolina turned in one of the top weekend performances. Steve Spurrier seems to have the pieces coming together, and don't be surprised if the Gamecocks finally make a serious challenge for the SEC East title.

4) Oregon doesn't miss Jeremiah Masoli. 72-0 says all you need to know about that. Meanwhile, the hottest seat in America left Boulder (Dan Hawkins and Colorado earned a solid win over rival Colorado State), and landed in Albuquerque, where Mike Locksley has a lot of explaining to do. There's no shame in losing to a team like Oregon, unless you lay the complete egg that the Lobos did.

5) USC does miss their defensive units of old. The Trojan offense had little trouble in carving up the Hawaii defense, but the Warriors didn't have too many problems scoring on Southern Cal either. Chops are being licked across the West Coast.

6) Rich Rodriguez can take a deep breath. Michigan looked good in the first weekend. Denard Robinson fits Rich Rod's offensive schemes perfectly. Now, the key for the Wolverines is to keep the momentum rolling. Last year, they fizzled in the end. They can't afford to have recent history repeat itself.

7) The Big East could be in serious trouble. When the best win the conference has is Syracuse over Akron, that doesn't say too much. It also leans more towards giving the Mountain West a seat at the BCS automatic table, given their success over the Pac-10 yet again this weekend.

8) Nebraska becomes a nice pick for the Big 12. While you can't count out Texas, their running game still didn't leave anyone impressed, and Oklahoma's scare against Utah State definitely raises an eye. Keep an eye on Nebraska in the Big 12 race.

9) Speaking of the Big 12, keep Texas Tech penciled in as the darkhorse. SMU isn't Texas or Oklahoma, but Tommy Tuberville's squad showed enough immediate defensive improvement to set them up for upsets along the way this season.

10) If you take the Kansas offense and the Ole Miss defense, you'd have a team that maybe Eastern Michigan could take. The fan bases of both schools have provided enough fire for their coaches for me to comment any further than that.

11) Raise a glass and toast the North Carolina players that fought LSU tooth and nail in the Georgia Dome. As the academic scandal swirls around Chapel Hill, those who stayed out of trouble played valiantly in defeat, while raising a lot of questions about the Tigers.

12) Alabama and Ohio State still remain the top two teams in my book. Should Boise beat Virginia Tech (it's at the half as I type this), Boise will still need one of those two teams to slip up for the Broncos to have a shot at Glendale.

Posted by Jean Neuberger at 7:09 PM | Comments (0)

NFL 2010 Preseason Power Rankings

The NFL is talking again, probably more seriously than ever, about an 18-game regular season schedule. It's a terrible idea. Several teams actually play 18 games each season — those that win at least once in the playoffs. These teams usually regress the following season. Part of that is probably just regression to the mean: a team that got a lot of breaks one year, won a lot of close games, probably won't be as lucky the next time around. Part of it is the NFL's scheduling system, which makes it unlikely that teams play a soft schedule two years in a row. And part of it, maybe the biggest part, is injuries.

People talk about a "Super Bowl curse." Yeah, it's called playing 19-20 games and your whole team gets beat up. That's why teams so seldom repeat as champs, even as conference champs. In the rankings below, you'll find that I worry about the prospects of teams that played deep into the postseason last year, and many contenders are already missing at least one key player. If we go to an 18-game schedule, I believe you'll see more injuries and shorter careers for star players, and consequently a lower level of play. More games would be good for the owners, good for the television networks. It's bad for players, coaches, and fans. The rich get richer, and everyone else loses. No thanks.

The rankings below are for right now, beginning-of-season strength, and not necessarily a forecast of each team's success over the course of the whole year. Brackets show predicted regular-season record.

1. Indianapolis Colts [12-4] — How long can they keep it up? How many years in a row can they be one of the best teams in the league? Until Peyton Manning retires? The Colts lost some players this offseason. I think the offensive line and the corners are real question marks. But I bet against them last year, and I won't do it twice. Anthony Gonzalez returns to a very crowded receiving corps.

2. Dallas Cowboys [10-6] — It's a mystery to me why this team isn't getting more credit as a serious contender in the wide-open NFC. The team hasn't lost anyone of consequence — Flozell Adams is gone, but the team cut him — and this year enters the season without having to pretend Roy Williams is its top wide receiver. The Cowboys are dealing with injuries as the season opens, particularly in the trenches, but nothing that looks like it should affect the whole season. How many other teams have three starting running backs? Seriously, Tashard Choice should be getting 20 carries a game for someone.

3. Tennessee Titans [10-6] — This is an interesting team. The Titans went 8-2 in their last 10 games, losing only to the Colts and Chargers. Vince Young posted an 82.8 passer rating, which is 16 points higher than in his Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign of 2006 (66.7), and rushed for 281 yards in little more than half a season. Cortland Finnegan is also healthy again. In 2008, Finnegan was an all-pro. In 2009, he missed three games. In his absence, the Titans went 0-3, were outscored 127-26, and allowed opponents 337 passing yards per game with a 134.5 passer rating. With Finnegan in the lineup, Tennessee was 8-5, outscored opponents 328-275, and allowed opponents 258 passing yards per game with an 80.6 passer rating. The team lost some veteran leadership this offseason with the departures of Kevin Mawae, Keith Bulluck, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Craig Hentrich. Those men will be missed more in the locker room than on the field, but those are respected players who won't be around this year. Chris Johnson is the best RB in the NFL, but I hope Jeff Fisher will be careful with his workload. I'd hate to see Johnson burn away like Eddie George did.

4. New York Jets [11-5] — Maybe the most interesting team in the league as we enter Week 1, which isn't necessarily a good thing. Darrelle Revis finally signed, and that's good. But the Jets had a lot of turnover this offseason, which is unusual for teams that are already good. Gone are RBs Thomas Jones and Leon Washington; in are second-year man Shonn Greene and future Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson. Alan Faneca is gone, Antonio Cromartie replaces Lito Sheppard, and Santonio Holmes could be playing alongside Braylon Edwards after his four-game suspension is over. In all of this, the biggest question may actually be second-year QB Mark Sanchez, whose inconsistent play nearly kept New York out of the playoffs last season. If everyone stays healthy, the defense is sensational.

5. New Orleans Saints [10-6] — Injuries are an issue. Last year, Darren Sharper set a single-season record interception return yards. This year, he'll miss at least six weeks because of knee surgery. Linebackers Jonathan Vilma (day-to-day), Clint Ingram (PUP), and Jonathan Casillas (IR) are all hurt. The corners are also suspect, with Malcolm Jenkins filling in for Sharper at free safety. That's not to say the Saints won't be a good team — I'd be surprised if they aren't — but it's a big part of why repeating as Super Bowl champ is so hard to do in today's NFL, and it's also part of why I oppose the idea of an 18-game regular season. Too many guys get hurt when they play 18 games.

6. Minnesota Vikings [9-7] — Basically the same team as last year, the same team that made it to the NFC Championship Game and had a good chance to win it. The roster is very similar this year, with no key losses in free agency. But I think there's potential for a major backslide. The team is counting on some really old players, and not just at quarterback. Pat Williams turns 38 next month, Antoine Winfield is 33 and coming off of injury, and several other key players are on the wrong side of 30. The Vikings were incredibly lucky with injuries last season; Winfield was the only major asset who missed a substantial amount of time. That doesn't happen two years in a row, especially not to teams that play 18 games (including postseason). Already, top receiver Sidney Rice is out for at least six weeks. Minnesota also faces a substantial boost in strength of schedule this season. I expect the Vikings to be good, but they won't be great. I do like their offensive line and LB corps. Story to watch in '10: how big a problem is Adrian Peterson's fumbling?

7. Pittsburgh Steelers [10-6] — While he is serving his suspension, Ben Roethlisberger doesn't count against the team's 53-man roster. This is a mistake on the league's part, an uncalled-for kindness to a player suspended for wrongdoing. Backup QB Byron Leftwich is also out (due to injury), and Dennis Dixon is expected to start until Roethlisberger and/or Leftwich return. The Steelers were devastated by injuries last season, and I would look for them to be a very serious threat in the AFC this year. The early schedule is not forgiving, but if Pittsburgh can start 2-2, I would look for the Steelers to win their division.

8. San Diego Chargers [11-5] — Basically the same team as last year, and once again a strong favorite to win the AFC West. Vincent Jackson is suspended, and starting LT Marcus McNeill is still holding out, but the biggest loss might actually be special teams standout Kassim Osgood, who left for Jacksonville in free agency. Nose tackle Jamal Williams is also gone (to Denver) and Shawne Merriman's health is shaky again, but that's no different than '09, when the Chargers went 13-3. Ultimately, this team's success revolves around two key players. Quarterback Philip Rivers is as good as anyone in the game, and Antonio Gates is an unparalleled weapon at tight end. Rookie RB Ryan Mathews has generated a lot of buzz as the heir apparent to LaDainian Tomlinson. San Diego has gotten off to a shaky start each of the last two seasons (2-3 both years), but it would be pretty stunning if the Bolts don't capture their fifth straight AFC West title.

9. Green Bay Packers [10-6] — The defense could be a little shaky this year. Gigantic defensive lineman Johnny Jolly (he's listed at 6'3", 325, but looks more like 6'7", 1050) was suspended for the season, and pass rusher Aaron Kampmann is now a Jaguar. Perhaps most worrisome is that starting DBs Al Harris and Atari Bigby both begin the year on the Physically Unable to Perform list, which means they can't play for at least six weeks. On the bright side, Aaron Rodgers has noticeably improved his tendency to take unnecessary sacks, and the blocking problems that exacerbated the issue have hopefully been addressed by re-inserting longtime OTs Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher.

10. Baltimore Ravens [10-6] — Ed Reed begins the season on the sidelines with a hip injury, and the team will miss him a great deal. You can't replace a player like that. New wideout Anquan Boldin has generated a lot of excitement, but I find myself mostly curious as to how he'll do. It seems like Boldin's best days are behind him, and Baltimore is a much different pass-catching environment than Arizona was. Dynamic RB Ray Rice will be key, though Willis McGahee should continue to see carries both as a change of pace and to moderate Rice's workload. The Ravens' biggest problem could be their very tough schedule.

11. Miami Dolphins [10-6] — Had a great offseason. They brought in Brandon Marshall, who's likely to cause both headaches and handstands. Marshall is an extraordinary talent. They have three rookies starting, but I really don't think that's going to be a problem; in fact, I think the Dolphins have upgraded their team by getting young talent into the lineup. Ronnie Brown returns from injury and former Cardinal Karlos Dansby is an impact player at LB. Second-year QBs often regress a little bit, but if Chad Henne can step forward, the Dolphins are a very, very serious sleeper. They'll miss CB Will Allen, who's on injured reserve.

12. Cincinnati Bengals [8-8] — I liked their offseason until they signed Terrell Owens. Sideshow Chad and Owens on the same team? Why don't you mix explosives and fire? How these two are going to co-exist, I can't imagine. The Bengals have a young, talented defense. The questions are on offense. How will Carson Palmer play, and can he stay healthy? Was Cedric Benson's 2009 renaissance for real, and can he stay healthy? How will the offensive line hold up against Baltimore and Pittsburgh? Who will go crazy first, Chad or T.O.? The Bengals started last year hot (7-2) and then limped to the finish line. Right now, I see them a close third in the competitive AFC North.

13. San Francisco 49ers [9-7] — Quarterback is the question mark. It still feels weird to say that about a team with incredible historical success at QB, from Frankie Albert, Y.A. Tittle, and John Brodie to Joe Montana, Steve Young, and Jeff Garcia. Alex Smith looked okay at the end of last season, and David Carr and Troy Smith could be effective backups, but if this team has serious postseason aspirations, it needs solid play — not spectacular, just solid — at the QB position. It would also help if Frank Gore stays healthy, Michael Crabtree takes the next step, and Vernon Davis plays the way he did last season. The defense should be fine, barring injury. San Francisco only has seven home games this season.

14. New York Giants [9-7] — The ups and downs haven't changed in the last six months. The offensive line is very good, but lacks depth. The defense, under new coordinator Perry Fewell, will rely on consistent pressure from the front four. If it gets that pressure, the defense will be great; if it doesn't, the defense will be poor. Veterans Antonio Pierce and Jeff Feagles both retired in the offseason, but their losses are at least partly offset by the additions of Keith Bulluck and Antrel Rolle in free agency.

15. Atlanta Falcons [9-7] — The offense should be great if everyone can stay healthy. Matt Ryan is a year older, playing behind a young, promising offensive line; Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood are a fine RB tandem, Roddy White is an elite wide receiver, and Tony Gonzalez was still an elite TE last season. The defense, though, is shaky. Last season, the Falcons allowed the worst third-down percentage in the league (45.3%), and there's a real dearth of playmakers, which is problematic when you play the Saints' offense twice a year.

16. New England Patriots [9-7] — Injuries are already an issue. Most notably, DE Ty Warren is on IR, OL Nick Kaczur is likely to join him, CB Leigh Bodden is on IR, WR Wes Welker is returning from a serious knee injury, and all-pro guard Logan Mankins still hasn't reported because of a contract dispute. That's a lot of missing talent, and it could create real problems for a team that already is long in the tooth and unlikely to last all 16 games. If there's a positive to point to, Tom Brady is one more year removed from his knee problems, and probably will play even better in 2010 than he did last season.

17. Arizona Cardinals [9-7] — Sometimes Hall of Fame voting can turn on factors outside a player's control. Terrell Davis was an elite running back. Everybody who saw him play agrees on this. He rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, 20 TDs in a season, had three different years when he might have been the best running back in football, and is quite possibly the finest postseason player in history at his position. Davis has been on the Hall of Fame ballot for several years now, and he's never even been a Finalist. The obvious reason for that is his injury-shortened career, but a secondary reason is that people got the idea, after Olandis Gary and Mike Anderson and Clinton Portis were all successful in the same system, that any running back could put up big numbers in Denver. But none of those players did what Davis did. You could watch him running a sweep, a simple run to the outside, and no one in the game ran it the way Davis did. His combination of speed, strength, and vision, his knack for finding the hole and knowing when to break, really were unique.

Kurt Warner was a great player. He had some really historic seasons. But I wonder if his legacy won't be affected by how well Derek Anderson does in Arizona this season. Warner put up big numbers the last two years, led the Cardinals to four postseason victories. But he was benched for portions of five straight seasons (2003-07), and his success came throwing to some of the greatest receivers in history. If Anderson puts up the same kind of stats Warner did last year — which is a big if, but not entirely out of the question — does that diminish Warner's HOF candidacy at all? I don't see how it wouldn't.

I've tried to resist the idea that the Cardinals are going to suffer a massive regression this season, but there are a lot of question marks. Anderson had better play a whole lot better than he did the last two years (56.9 passer rating), because there's no depth behind him. The offensive line is also shallow if any starters go down, and a couple of key contributors on defense are gone. Joey Porter, at this stage in his career, does not represent an upgrade over Karlos Dansby. The one move I'm not terribly concerned about is the loss of Boldin. He was a good player for them, but Steve Breaston is also a good player, and Early Doucet is a legit third option.

18. Philadelphia Eagles [9-7] — I hated their offseason. There were a couple of nice moves; I like the trade for Reggie Wells to solidify their offensive line. Trading Donovan McNabb may be a good move in the long run, but it constitutes a major risk entering 2010. Philadelphia is a perennial playoff team, a team with legitimate reason to believe it was the proverbial "one player away" from being a serious championship contender, and instead of loading up for one more run, the team unloaded players like McNabb and CB Sheldon Brown. I don't put much stock in preseason performance, and I like Kevin Kolb, but I doubt he'll perform as well as McNabb did. Brown's place will be filled by former Patriot Ellis Hobbs. I don't think the Eagles are a bad team now. I just don't see any reason to believe they're going to be better than last season.

19. Houston Texans [7-9] — Lost key offensive assistants Alex Gibbs (offensive line) and Kyle Shanahan (offensive coordinator) in the offseason. Brian Cushing, whom I think was the best linebacker in the NFL last season, is out for the first four games after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs, and that's a major loss, as well. Every season, it seems like the Texans are ready to take it to the next level and become a playoff team, and every year they seem to fall a little bit short.

20. Chicago Bears [7-9] — This is the last season for GM Jerry Angelo and head coach Lovie Smith. The Bears probably need to make the playoffs for either man to keep his job. Already, star LBs Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher are nursing injuries, though both are likely to play in Week 1. Urlacher's return and the acquisition of Julius Peppers should upgrade the defense, while former Rams HC Mike Martz has been handed the keys to the offense. I hate to be that guy, but I really think this team's fortunes will ultimately depend on the play of its starting QB and RB. Jay Cutler led the NFL in interceptions last season, while Matt Forte averaged 3.6 yards per carry and fumbled six times. If they do that again, the Bears are in big trouble. If both play like they did in 2008, and Devin Hester continues to evolve as a wide receiver, Chicago could win the NFC North.

21. Kansas City Chiefs [7-9] — How good is their scouting department? That's the question. If the young guys can take a step forward, Kansas City could really surprise people. With Ryan Lilja joining Brian Waters, third-year tackle Branden Albert could help solidify an above-average offensive line. If former top-five picks Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson can play well enough to justify their draft status, the KC defensive line could be scary. If Derrick Johnson can re-capture his rookie form, if Brandon Flowers can continue to improve, if Eric Berry plays at a high level, the defense could be one of the league's best. If Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones play like they did last season, if Dwayne Bowe and Matt Cassel play like they did two years ago, the offense could be really good. Too many ifs, but this should be a team on the way up.

22. Cleveland Browns [7-9] — The Browns were terrible last season. They'll be better in 2010, maybe a lot better. Cleveland ended last season on a four-game winning streak and had a sensational offseason. Are they a playoff team? Fine, probably not. Could they go .500? I believe that's a reasonable projection. The QB stable has been cleaned out completely, with Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, and Colt McCoy replacing Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. My faith in Delhomme is extremely limited, but he's probably an upgrade over last season, and he's got at least one quality backup. The young offensive line has potential, and Jerome Harrison played well at the end of last season. Sheldon Brown, Chris Gocong, Scott Fujita, and Joe Haden should all help solidify the defense, and if Shaun Rogers can stay healthy, the Browns could really surprise people.

23. Oakland Raiders [6-10] — Tom Cable has the best winning percentage (.321) of the last four Raider HCs, and the Raiders have actually shown progress under his direction. Jason Campbell is not a great QB, not even a particularly good QB, but he is a massive upgrade over JaMarcus Russell, and gives Oakland some reason for optimism this year.

24. Washington Redskins [7-9] — It seems like people get over-excited about this team every offseason. Look, I love Donovan McNabb. He's a clear upgrade over Campbell, and I think the team will be better because of him. Mike Shanahan is no miracle worker, but he and his staff probably do represent an upgrade over last year's group. The offensive line should be much improved, and the switch to a 3-4 defensive alignment has the potential to turn the defense from "solid" to "high-impact". But the team's impact players on offense are getting old (Santana Moss), coming off major injury (Chris Cooley), or both (Clinton Portis). I'll be shocked if Washington doesn't better last year's 4-12 record, but I'll be surprised if they make it to .500, too. The secondary is a real concern.

25. Denver Broncos [5-11] — Last season, Elvis Dumervil led the NFL in sacks. This year, he won't play, sidelined for the whole season by a torn pectoral muscle. Both starting offensive tackles are gimpy, though their injuries are far less serious. The bigger concern is wide receiver, where Brandon Marshall is being replaced by Brandon Lloyd and Brandon Stokley is on the injured list. That's a lot of Brandons, and a pretty big problem for a team already relying on the unexciting Kyle Orton at QB. The defense will probably be pretty good, and it will have to. The team enters 2010 minus its best offensive and best defensive player from '09.

26. Carolina Panthers [6-10] — Julius Peppers is gone, but so is Jake Delhomme. The Panthers have probably the best one-two RB combo in the NFL with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, so they'll look to keep things on the ground as much as possible. Honestly, I don't have high hopes for this team. The preseason offense was a major bummer, QB remains a huge question mark, the defensive line and defensive backfield don't scare anyone except Panther fans, and a lot of veterans left in the offseason. A .500 season would be a major achievement.

27. Detroit Lions [6-10] — New-look defensive line gives the team some hope of improving its dreadful defense. Ndamukong Suh was a special player in college, and I believe he'll be an impact player at the pro level, too. Former Titan Kyle Vanden Bosch is coming off a disappointing season, but he's had two double-digit sack seasons and provides a pass-rushing threat opponents need to respect. Offensively, it's all about the young talent. Put a good offensive line in front of Matthew Stafford, Jahvid Best, and Calvin Johnson, and good things could happen. I don't think they're there yet, but this team finally seems to be moving in the right direction.

28. Buffalo Bills [4-12] — Trent Edwards apparently will get the first shot at quarterback, and I think that's the right call, but with so little talent to work with, I'm skeptical that he'll hold the job down all season. I like Lee Evans, and the team has a talented stable of running backs, but the offensive line leaves a lot to be desired, and apart from a fine secondary, the defense is suspect. Chan Gailey was a less than inspired choice as head coach, and I didn't like their draft.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars [5-11] — Added Aaron Kampman to address their league-worst pass defense, but I just don't see how the offense or the defense is going to be very good this year. I hope they'll be careful with Maurice Jones-Drew's workload. Last year he carried the ball 24 times or more in six different games, and he's already nursing a jacked knee. They have a brutal schedule the first few weeks.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [4-12] — There are some good young players on the defense: Barrett Ruud, Aqib Talib, Tanard Jackson, maybe a couple of the rookies. Actually, those rookies had better be good — Gerald McCoy and Brian Price are listed as the starting DTs, the middle of the defense, the guys who will keep blockers off of Ruud. On the other side of the ball, however, there's little reason for optimism. I'll be very surprised if the Bucs don't finish at the bottom of the NFC South again.

31. Seattle Seahawks [6-10] — Offensive line coach Alex Gibbs abruptly quit last week, another headache for a team that always seems to find new problems. Seattle was one of seven teams outscored by over 100 points last season. They have some nice players, but no real superstars; a lot of things need to come together for the team to be successful. I worry about the defensive line and Matt Hasselbeck.

32. St. Louis Rams [4-12] — The worst team in the NFL last season, they're obviously not going to be great this year. If Sam Bradford plays well and Steven Jackson stays healthy, they should win a few games. Fred Robbins is a good pickup on the defensive front. But there are just so many holes in the lineup here, I think the rebuilding process is far from complete. I'm sorry, Rams fans. An easy schedule, especially toward the beginning of the season, could mask their badness.

AFC Playoffs

Wild Card: NEW YORK JETS def. Miami, PITTSBURGH def. Tennessee
Divisional: Pittsburgh def. INDIANAPOLIS , SAN DIEGO def. New York Jets
Championship: Pittsburgh def. SAN DIEGO

NFC Playoffs

Wild Card: New York Giants def. SAN FRANCISCO, GREEN BAY def. Atlanta
Divisional: DALLAS def. New York Giants, NEW ORLEANS def. Green Bay
Championship: DALLAS def. New Orleans

Super Bowl XLV: Dallas Cowboys def. Pittsburgh Steelers

Take a look at the NFL predictions at Betfirms and get ready to beat the weekly NFL odds this year.

Posted by Brad Oremland at 5:33 PM | Comments (7)

September 6, 2010

2010 NFC Divisional Analysis

Also see: 2010 AFC Divisional Analysis

NFC East

Best Team

Dallas Cowboys

Tony Romo has been on the verge of leading this team to playoff success for a few years now. As long as they don't let him on the field during extra point attempts, he may just meet the expectations of Cowboys fans this year. With an already explosive group of receivers that now also has Dez "Carry Your Own Pads" Bryant, the offense is as explosive as it has been in a while, and the defense is solid.

They'll probably win at least half of their games with relative ease, and they're the only team in this division that returns every major piece of a playoff team from last year. Forget the preseason struggles, because this team will be fine when the regular season rolls around.

Team to Watch

Washington Redskins

Are they the second best team in the division? No, but they are the most exciting, or at least the most improved. Yeah, Albert Haynesworth is a huge distraction, but look at the positives for this team. They've added one of the top coaches in the league, have three Pro Bowl-caliber RBs, and of course added Donovan McNabb.

With a solid rookie on the offensive line, which provides further protection for McNabb, this team has all the pieces to put up points this year. Their defense won't be among the best this year, but if they can provide occasional flashes of brilliance, this team could win twice as many games as they did last year.

NFC North

Best Team

Green Bay Packers

Both the Packers and the Vikings have great defenses and explosive playmakers on offense, so it only makes sense that the team with the better QB gets the nod here. I know Brett Favre had a great season last year, but Aaron Rodgers was amazing, too, and he's still getting better. You can take the limping 40-year-old if you want, but I'll take the agile 26-year-old with a cannon for an arm and the ability to throw with pinpoint precision.

Ryan Grant will force defenses to stack the box, so look for Rodgers and Greg Jennings to be a dynamic duo this year. With a young defense as good as theirs, this team should 12 or more games this year.

Team to Watch

Minnesota Vikings

This analysis will be short, given that their biggest problem, the aging Brett Favre, was just mentioned in the Packers' analysis. Their defense will be good, but with concerns about the health of their two most explosive receivers, Brett Favre will need to be better than he was least year. And with his own growing injury concerns, don't count on it.

NFC South

Best Team

New Orleans Saints

Not much explanation needed here, as they're the defending champs, and Drew Brees is back, along with his weapons on offense. Sean Peyton will keep defenses guessing which players will be on the field, let alone who will get the majority of the touches. They'll put up points in bunches, and they proved last year they can win the close games.

Team to Watch

Atlanta Falcons

They were 9-7 last year, and that was without a healthy Michael Turner. With him back, and an improved Matt Ryan, they'll improve that record this year.

Through the draft, they improved the offensive-line, and added speed to the defense. It's not that they'll dominate in any one way, but they won't have any weaknesses to exploit either. They may be boring, but at least they'll be boring all the way into the playoffs.

NFC West

Best Team

San Francisco 49ers

I know being the class of the NFC West doesn't really mean much, but I think this is the year the 49ers finally win the division. It's been a while since they've done so, and they've been close for a couple of years, but this year, they finally have all the pieces. They had a great draft, one that solidified the offensive-line and the defensive secondary, and that means great things for them moving forward.

Frank Gore will gain yards almost at will with this o-line, and the defense is beginning to look formidable. Teams that score a lot of points and don't give very many generally win a lot of games. In the NFC West, they'll win 10 or more.

Team to Watch

Seattle Seahawks

To be honest, the St. Louis Rams made sense here too, but only because they'll quadruple their win total from last year if Sam Bradford leads them to 4 wins. But for being a team that only needs to improve their record from last year by a few games to be in the playoff hunt, and having the best draft that any team has had in a long time, they just make more sense.

Pete Carroll is annoying, and his ability to win within the rules may be questionable at best, but he always seems to win, and with a club with this much young talent, he'll continue to enjoy success. Look for the Seahawks to be at, or possibly even over, .500 at the end of the season.

Posted by Paul Foeller at 6:56 PM | Comments (0)

Age in Perspective at the U.S. Open

As we are entering the second week of U.S. Open, I found that the lack of young players making it to the second week on the men's side is quite extraordinary. My curiosity got the better of me, so I decided to go back some 20 years and see the age patterns in terms of players who reach the round of 16s in the last Slam of the year. Some of the numbers turned out to be quite remarkable.

First of all, it's astonishing that the youngest players left in the men's draw as of Sunday night are Sam Querrey at the age of 22, followed by Novak Djokovic at 23. The rest of the players are all 24 years or older. The last time a similar pattern happened, in fact the only time in the last two decades, was in 1997. But even in 1997, the average age of the players making it to the second week at 25.6 remained well below this year's number at 26.2. In fact, the only year where the average age of the players in the second week was higher than this year's was in 2004 at 27.2, and that was thanks to a couple of players above their 30s, Sargis Sargsian and Andrei Pavel, who seldom made it that far in Slam tournaments (a total of seven times between them).

The average age of the players making it to the second week was slightly lower in the 1990s (24.7) than in the 2000s (24.9). This difference becomes more emphasized when considering that only 14 players above the age of 30 made it to the second week in the 1990s versus 20 players found in the same category in the 2000s. Furthermore, we find four years in the first of the two decades (1994-95 and 1997-98) where nobody 30 years or above made it to the second week, whereas in the following decade, we only find one such year (2008). Hence, we can comfortably conclude that older players have been more successful overall in the 2000s than the preceding decade.

Here is where it gets a bit more interesting: out of the 20 players 30 or above in the last decade that made it to the second week, only five of them are from the last five years (2005-09). Fifteen of them come from the first five years (2000-04). Despite the last decade bringing out the best of the older players than the preceding one, in the last five years, there has been a resurgence of younger players. So the pattern should continue in the first year of this present decade right? Wrong.

As stated above, this year's edition of the U.S. Open features an average age only surpassed one other time in the last two decades: basically, a complete reversal of pattern. And this is happening despite the fact that there are no players in their 30s who are left in the draw as of Sunday night. So it's not necessarily that old school is getting the better of the young generation, it's just that the upcoming generation, meaning the players having recently come out of the juniors rank in the last four years, are nowhere to be found. Again, Querrey is the youngest player left at 22 and the next youngest player is Djokovic, who would hardly qualify as a "young and upcoming” star on the tour.

There are a couple of conclusions that can be drawn from this, both open to debate. One is that this generation of top players seems to have a stronghold on the tennis world. Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Andy Roddick, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo, just to count some names who have been regularly making it to the second week in the last several years, were teenagers or youngsters in the beginning years of the decade, and having arrived and/or older and more mature in the second half of it, have seemed to be one step ahead of the upcoming players lately. As the older champions have taken the backstage (Carlos Moya in 2007 and Andre Agassi in 2005 are the last big names to make it to the second week), no youngsters have been up to the task in dethroning the current generation of stars.

The second conclusion is that Federer and Nadal are ahead of their time, just like Bjorn Borg (although not in the U.S. Open), Pete Sampras, Andre Agassi, Jimmy Connors, and Ivan Lendl were when they first arrived to the top of the scene. Like them, Federer and Nadal are able to sustain their top positions for a long time because they started out with a wide gap between them and the rest of the competition. It takes more than just a few years to catch up to them and surpass them, thus they bring the average age up every year, whereas they were pulling it down in the earlier years of the decade, along with other names like Andy Roddick, Tommy Robredo, Nikolay Davydenko, and David Nalbandian, who have helped with this pattern by showing up frequently in the second week of U.S. Open tournaments throughout most of the decade.

One other revealing pattern that is worth mentioning is the following: in the beginning of the 1990s, there were five years in a row where the average age of the players making it to the second week remained below 25 (1990-94). This period was followed by five years during which four showed the average age of players in the second week to be 25 or above (1995-99). That was followed by another period of five years where players making it to the second week remained older, peaking at 27.2 average in the year 2004. That was the last year of older players making their noises heard. Since 2004, we had not had a year where the average age in the second week reached 25 — until today.

Again, the same pattern that took place 20 years ago appears to have come back full circle. After five years of average age remaining below 25, this year we have not only surpassed 25, but we have the second highest average age in the last 20 years at 26.2. Considering that in the current group, only Federer seems to be a "veteran" at the age of 29, while other players like Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, [Stanislas] Wawrinka, Querrey, [Gael] Monfils, [Richard] Gasquet, and [John] Isner are all 25 years or younger, I see no reason why we should not repeat the pattern similar to the several years that followed the pattern of 20 years ago. I do not see these players going away anytime soon, and I am including Federer in this group, even though he is 29.

Adding to that the fact that presently, nobody out of the junior ranks appears to be up to the challenge as this year's U.S. Open have shown, I expect the average age of the second week to remain high in the next few years, perhaps to stay above 26 a few times in the upcoming years.

I am reluctant to bring up one last observation simply because I would need more detailed data to make a healthy comment on it: perhaps the stars of the current generation know how to manage their bodies better than the youngsters. The U.S. Open is the last Slam of the year and managing the tournament calendar has become a major issue for many players in the ATP Tour; Nadal has been a prime example of this discussion in the past years. Could it be that the players of the younger generation wear themselves out by the time U.S. Open comes around and are a victim of their own inexperience in this issue? I will leave that for another time. For now, it is time to enjoy a terrific second week of competition promising some high quality clashes in the upcoming days.

Posted by Mert Ertunga at 11:41 AM | Comments (2)

September 4, 2010

NFL 2010 Games of the Week (Pt. 2)

Continued from 2010 NFL Games of the Week (Pt. 1)

Week 10: Philadelphia at Washington — Donovan McNabb and the Redskins host his former team, now led by Kevin Kolb. By Week 10, it should be clear to Andy Reid and the Eagles whether or not they made the right decision by unloading McNabb and going all in with Kolb.

By now, McNabb should have already christened FedEx Field with a hearty puke, and that may empty his stomach, but nothing would fill his heart like a resounding win over the Eagles.

McNabb throws for 2 touchdowns, and rushes for 1 score, then reprises his moonwalk celebration, but tears the Achilles tendon of his left foot in the process, ending his season.

Redskins win.

Week 11: Indianapolis at New England — After a Week 10 loss at Pittsburgh, the Patriots try to regroup at home against the Colts, adding another chapter to the debate over who is the NFL's best quarterback, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Take your pick: Brady and three Super Bowl rings, plus a Brazilian supermodel and his own cologne, which I think is enticingly named "Smell The Fingers." Or Manning and one Super Bowl ring, plus a collection of hilarious commercials, an off-the-charts football IQ, and compulsive indecision when it comes to play-calling.

This time, Bill Belichick doesn't blow the game with a dangerous fourth down conversion attempt. No, instead he blows it on third down, calling for a ridiculous running play on third down with no timeouts, and time expires with the Colts clinging to a three-point victory.

Week 12: New Orleans at Dallas — The Saints look to avenge last year's 24-17 loss to the Cowboys in the Superdome. It's Thanksgiving in Big D, and, barring a surprise appearance by a November snowstorm and Leon Lett, it won't be easy for the Saints.

Reggie Bush gives the Saints a late lead with a touchdown on a 71-yard punt return, the latest in a long list of things Bush has "returned." But Tony Romo calmly drives the Cowboys downfield, and finds Jason Witten for the winning score.

Week 13: New York Jets at New England — It's no secret that the Jets and Patriots hate each other, and while the Patriots speak of their disdain for the Jets in measured tones and respectful wording, the Jets, unlike Mark Sanchez, aren't afraid to "let it fly."

The war of words leading up to this Monday night contest is enough to make Tony Dungy's gosh-darned head spin. But that pales in comparison to an expletive-filled rant by Rex Ryan, who, after being shortchanged, goes berserk on a Taco Bell drive-through employee, a recording of which falls into the hands of TMZ.

Ryan offers no apologies, and instead guarantees a win, which the Jets back up, thanks to a dominating defensive effort.

Week 14: Indianapolis at Tennessee — If Chris Johnson is on pace to crack 2,500 yards this year, then he should be approaching the 2,000-yard plateau when the Colts visit LP Field. Of course, that's assuming Johnson remains injury-free, as well as humility-free.

In actuality, Johnson enters the game with only 1,411 yards rushing as the Titans, 7-5 on the year, fight to remain in the playoff hunt, while the 10-2 Colts look to move closer to the AFC South crown.

Johnson, still miffed over losing the MVP award to Peyton Manning last year, gains a measure of revenge, rushing for 261 yards, three more than Manning's pass yardage on the night, and the Titans prevail.

Week 15: Washington at Dallas — The Redskins/Cowboys rivalry has lost some of its importance over the years, but that quickly changes when Albert Haynesworth tries to stomp the face of Dallas center Andre Gurode on the first play from scrimmage. Luckily, Gurode is standing upright, and Haynesworth's attempt at a karate kick nicks Gurode on the ankle.

Haynesworth is ejected and leaves in a huff, showing the same enthusiasm escaping an actual game as he had skipping practice earlier in the year.

The Cowboys ride the wave of emotion to a convincing win, and clinch the NFC East crown.

Week 16: New Orleans at Atlanta — The NFC South crown may very well be decided in the Georgia Dome on December 27th when the up-and-coming Falcons look to make Atlanta not only a Waffle House and strip club mecca, but home of division champs, as well.

With the Georgia Dome crowd in a frenzy, and a huge Monday Night Football crowd watching, the Falcons jump on the Saints early, taking a 17-0 lead. But the Saints fight back, but the completion of the comeback is thwarted when Dunta Robinson intercepts Drew Brees in the end zone, preserving the Atlanta win.

Week 17: San Diego at Denver — What better way to ring in the New Year than a snowy Sunday afternoon at Invesco Field, a visit to which is always made more pleasant for the Chargers by the absence of Jay Cutler and Ed Hochuli, who were briefly linked as a couple after Hochuli's Bronco-favoring blown call back in 2008.

This time, there's no controversy. The Chargers and Broncos both enter the game with 9-6 records, and the winner will claim the AFC West crown. In a driving snowstorm, and with wide receiver Vincent Jackson still unsigned and living on food stamps, the Chargers lean on rookie running back sensation Ryan Mathews, who rushes for 124 yards on 30 carries.

Chargers win.

Posted by Jeffrey Boswell at 6:15 PM | Comments (0)

Stop the Presses, Rob Dibble Was Right

Ah, the unwritten rules, one of which seems to have overruled the other. Vaporizing at least one written rule in the bargain. Launching a rather lugubrious scrum between the Washington Nationals and the Florida Marlins Wednesday.

And to think that I was probably supposed to think about Manny Ramirez wearing out his second welcome in three years, which isn't quite as proficient an alienation performance as those of Jose Guillen or Milton Bradley, and which may be the most polite way to describe how Ramirez becomes Ozzie Guillen's latest helpmate/headache, depending.

But anyone who tells me that the Marlins weren't itching to send Nyjer Morgan a message before he thought about stealing a base or two following plunk number one should go back to watching golf.

Here it was: top of the fourth, Chris Volstad on the mound for the Fish, Morgan at the plate, and Morgan takes one in the back. No sweat. Part of the game. Everyone in the house knew the Fish were probably crying foul when Morgan plowed Florida catcher Brett Hayes into a separated shoulder on a play at the plate (trying to score while his mates were hitting into a 10th-inning double play) the night before.

Forget the unwritten rules for a moment. The written rules (you can look it up, ladies and gentlemen) say catchers cannot block the plate. If Brett Hayes and his teammates didn't know that, they were taught that lesson in rather dramatic manner. Morgan has his issues, of course — the lad is a boor who seems often enough to cross a few lines even among his own mates — but he wasn't necessarily trying to divorce Hayes from his shoulder, either. (This, folks, was regular-season league competition, not an All-Star Game.)

Everybody with me? So far, so good. Now there isn't a jury in this world that would rule Volstad unjustified for sending Morgan a little message in the fourth. That's baseball, folks. You got my guy, I'm going to get you. Volstad got Morgan. End of conversation.

Apparently, what really got under the Fish's scales was Morgan stealing two bases after the fourth-inning flog. What steamed the Fish, or at least their first baseman Gaby Sanchez, was that the Nats were already down eleven runs when Morgan launched his crime spree. Here's Sanchez to Sirius/XM:

When he got to first he ends up stealing second and then stealing third, down by 11. And that's the whole gist of the conversation that I heard. You really don't do that in baseball. I can understand if it was a four-run lead and they hit you on purpose and you go ahead and steal second and steal third, then I don't think it's anything of a big deal. But when the team's down by 11, we're not really holding him on, we're not really doing anything, and he ends up stealing second and stealing third? I know that a lot of the guys were upset about the whole situation. So just try to hit him again kind of thing.

Let's see. With nobody holding him on, Morgan steals second. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't a bird flip to the team that just drilled him. The Nats are 11 runs down, the Marlins aren't even bothering to hold him on, do you think that even a flake like Morgan isn't thinking that, just maybe, his team could use a little ignition?

Since when are you supposed to just take it like a manperson and let the other guys continue the steamrolling when you're down 11 already? And since when, knowing the man just stole one, are you not holding him on since he's already shown intent aplenty that he has grand theft on his mind? Call me irresponsible if you must, but don't you learn as early as the Little League that if a guy steals one he's not exactly allergic to stealing another?

If you think the Marlins wouldn't have done any and everything they could think of to close an eleven run deficit if their guy got first base on the house, regardless of the circumstances that brought him there in the first place, you're dreaming as deeply as Gaby Sanchez. The Marlins ought to be grateful that Morgan didn't even think about trying to steal home.

Where the Marlins crossed the line was two innings later, with Morgan at the plate again. This time, they were steamed over the twin thefts. This time, Volstad sailed one behind Morgan's belt. That was just begging for trouble, which is precisely what Volstad got for his trouble, when Morgan charged the mound and swung a roundhouse that grazed the pitcher just moments before Sanchez sailed in for the clothesline that sent Morgan on his butt, his batting helmet a few feet away from his corpus, and both sides pouring onto the field.

And there was more to come from Sanchez to Sirius/XM:

I'm trying to protect Chris Volstad as much as I can in that situation. I wish that I could have gotten there before so he couldn't take a swing at Volstad and I could try to get to the middle of it. He's very quick, and he's the only one who knew what he was gonna do. I kind of knew in the back of my head there was a chance he would charge if he gets hit again, but he kind of stayed for a second and then all of a sudden threw his bat and then started to run, so he kind of got everybody by surprise. In that situation, I just try to do whatever I can to try to protect my pitcher and get him off him.

Now, are you ready to hear a little common sense from an unexpected source? As in, a source who just so happened to lose his job as a Nats television broadcaster because he was damn fool enough to think Stephen Strasburg should have sucked it up and pitch through the pain — which is just about what got a) the fool in question a very short career as a useful and once great relief pitcher; and, b) Strasburg looking at Tommy John surgery and more than a year, possibly, off the job?

Brace yourselves:

You get hit the first time, that should take care of it. Don't hit our catcher anymore, don't do that kind of stuff. But then the second time, okay, that's a little overkill ... And you know what, [Morgan] gave away a foot in that fight. And if you think the guy's intentionally trying to hurt you or throw at you, you've got to do something ... How are you upset that the other guy's stealing when he's down 11 runs? You should be thankful, saying, listen, he's really rolling the dice. If he gets thrown out, he's gonna be in big trouble by his team and his manager.

— Rob Dibble, once a pitcher who didn't think twice about throwing at hitters who'd committed far lesser offences than stealing twice on him following a plunk

"But it's over now," Sanchez added. "Things are done. So you've just got to continue playing. And we've still got another three games against them, and I'm pretty sure that all of this is done with." And there's still a ballpark in Brooklyn at 55 Sullivan Place.

It isn't easy to stand up for Morgan. He did, after all, plow St. Louis Cardinals catcher Bryan Anderson last Saturday night, even though Anderson had stepped in front of the plate, not quite blocking it, causing Anderson a shoulder injury and Nats manager Jim Riggleman to call his own player "unprofessional." (In fairness: Morgan said afterward he'd been duped into thinking Anderson had the ball. Well, now. Oncoming runner thinks plate-blocking catcher has the ball, violating the rules while he's at it; oncoming runner isn't in the mood to just accept fate. That, too, happens in baseball.) And Morgan is appealing a seven-game siddown-and-shaddap over tossing a ball to a fan in Citizens Bank Ballpark last month that happened to hit the fan, who's refusing to sue.

"Remember," Dibble continued, "[Morgan's] mentality is aggressiveness all the time."

He played many years of junior hockey. This doesn't excuse some of the things he's done, especially the shot he took at the Cardinals' catcher. It was uncalled for to run over the catcher. But that being said, the first pitch in the back with a 92-mile-an-hour fastball should be like, listen, quit playing out of control, get yourself under control, and let's play some baseball. But on the second one, you have to defend yourself. And I've had guys charge at me, and I've said this after the fight, I would say, 'Listen, if you felt that I was throwing at you and it was intentional, you have every right to defend yourself'.

It isn't easy saying Rob Dibble is right, considering how easy it seems to say he's been wrong before. Especially on the heels of when he was, regarding Strasburg, dramatically enough wrong to lose one of his jobs.

***

Situation update: Morgan was suspended eight games Friday for the brawl. Volstad was suspended six.

Whatever his doings or undoings prior to Wednesday night's wrangling and tangling, would someone care to explain why the victim — and, yes, Morgan was the victim Wednesday, unless you think getting thrown at a second time in three innings for a warped interpretation of the "unwritten rules" equals justice or an actual or alleged bad guy has no claim to victimhood even once — got the worst of it?

Or is there another unwritten rule that a player facing suspension already in a separate incident has no business taking umbrage when he's thrown at twice in three innings in a game he's playing while appealing the earlier suspension?

Next week's set between the Fish and the Nats is going to be extremely interesting. Considering how futile were the umps' warnings after Wednesday's sixth-inning soiree (Nats pitcher Doug Slaten winged one at Sanchez over the clothesline hit on Morgan at the mound despite the warnings), that is...

Posted by Jeff Kallman at 2:55 PM | Comments (0)

September 2, 2010

Fortune Cookies For Sports Figures

During the 2010 World Cup, people lost their mind because an octopus correctly predicted what would happen in some of the major games. A chimp in an Eastern European zoo did the same. ESPN even jumped in the fray by putting an animal on TV, naming it Alexi Lalas, and letting him pick games.

Forget zoo creatures, they can only tell us so much about the future. I wanted to know what was in store for some of the biggest figures in the sports scene right now, so I went to the one source we can all agree is infallible: fortune cookies.

Tiger Woods: New and rewarding opportunities will soon develop for you.

See what I mean? The first name I had on my list was Tiger Woods and the first cookie I crack, which was supposed to tell us Tiger's future, ends up with this? I think we can all agree this is 100-percent correct, and that these new and rewarding opportunities will probably have surgically-enhanced breasts and will have the ability to suck a golf ball through a garden hose.

Golf season is over and Tiger just bought a huge $54 million bachelor pad. Hmmmm ... I wonder what sort of new opportunities could be on the horizon for a recently-divorced man worth half a billion dollars?

Tiger Woods will end up in so many holes it will remind people of Tiger Woods the golfer circa 2007.

Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban Missile: A friend will bring you a big surprise soon.

Chapmania has taken the National League by storm as the pitching phenom is the hottest thing to come out of Cuban since Vida Guerra (in two very different ways, although I bet for every 10 people that masturbate to pictures of Guerra, there are at least five baseball dorks out there jerking it to video of Chapman's 104-mph fastball).

And a friend will bring him a surprise soon? This is difficult, because Chapman doesn't have too many friends since he doesn't speak English.

Stephen Strasburg: Your life will be happy and peaceful.

Do you know what's not peaceful and always happy? Playing professional sports. Fortunately for Strasburg, he shredded his elbow and is well on his way to Bustville, USA. Do you know who is happy? A high school baseball coach. Welcome to your future, Coach Strasburg. What you get from helping young people will replace all the glory and fame you would've had if your arm didn't blow up. Welcome to normal life, I hope you've got enough money socked away to at least have someone else cut your grass.

LeBron James: You will be reunited with old friends.

A great sign for LeBron James. He and his two best NBA buddies went to the same team, leaving them $23 to spend on complementary players for the next season. LeBron is already around his old friends from high school basketball all the time anyway, so how could they be reunited? Yep, on the court. It's all the Heat can afford and LeBron will be even happier now that he can continue carrying the dead weight of players like Romeo Travis. I hope the NBA has room for a 6'7" big man that couldn't even average 6 rebounds a game as a senior in a mid-major conference in 2007. Garbage time in Miami will look like real episodes of "Pros vs. Joes."

Jay Mariotti: You will be lucky in love.

BOOM! We have our first fortune cookie burn of the column. Mariotti is in hot water because he lost his patience with his girlfriend and invited her to a one-person slap party, thrown by the very effeminate and astoundingly smug Jay Mariotti.

This is the universe taunting Jay, telling him "hey, you're such a douche, if you decide to take your own life, please consider your carbon footprint and use a rope the old-fashioned way, rather than the car in the garage thing."

Whoa, universe, you're getting pretty dark with all that suicide talk. But I do like the fact that you care about the environment. It shows that we live in a classy universe.

Basically, if Jay could have refrained from acting like a trailer park pimp, he would still have a career and a life and would only be hated by people who knew him, rather than people who have no idea who he is. But I will say that he is lucky in love because he even had a girlfriend to begin with. That alone is pretty shocking, and has much to do with luck I imagine.

James Toney: Your wisdom will find a way.

After months of talking shit about mixed martial arts, former elite boxer James Toney stepped into the Octagon and promptly got his ass kicked by a man old enough to be Brett Favre (who is approximately 73). His wisdom will find him a way to explain this beating and will let him walk away with some semblance of pride. After months of saying he would knock Couture out with one punch, Toney will now have to rely on his wisdom to paint this in his head as anything other than an ass-kicking. Even Jay Mariotti has a better MMA game than Toney, because at least Mariotti isn't afraid to do whatever necessary to win.

Owen Hart: Luck is on your side.

Owen Hart was in sports news as he had a nice write up on Deadspin.com. And luck is on his side. Because he isn't alive, I take this to mean one thing and one thing only. Owen Hart has started his own wrestling promotion in heaven, and luck is on his side because professional wrestlers have a higher death rate than suicide bombers. More talent is on the way, Owen!

Posted by Mark Chalifoux at 5:27 PM | Comments (0)

The Bottom Line of Bottoming Out

Last week, Deadspin.com unearthed financial documents for several MLB teams. Some of the teams, such as Seattle, showed a pattern of making money one season and correspondingly beefing up payroll the next. Others, such as Pittsburgh, cleared profits while maintaining basement payroll levels.

For many fans, columnists, and talking heads, this represents the ultimate affront. It is one thing to cry poor and not compete. It is another to cry poor, not compete, and turn a profit, they argue.

And they could not be more wrong.

For a country that cherishes its capitalist soul, our sports are shockingly socialist. Salary caps, revenue sharing, and luxury taxes all penalize the highest performers and bravest risk takers. The willingest spenders like the Yankees and Red Sox receive mixed messages from their sports: Try to win as much as you can, but you better not use all of your resources to do it.

But for the teams at the top of the revenue pile, these progressive penalties are only the cost of doing their very lucrative business. For every dollar perennial contenders have to surrender for trying too hard, they make back several in the spoils of winning. It is the teams at the bottom who have a tougher decision to weigh.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have not been a factor in the National League in nearly two decades. Since Barry Bonds' exodus to San Francisco, few Pirates have inspired any enthusiasm from Pittsburgh baseball fans. And meanwhile, ownership has recorded profits by balancing payroll and reaping its loser's take of MLB's revenue sharing funds.

To many baseball fans, this is an outrage. To summarize their anger, it seems like the Pirates do not care about winning. After all, if those cheap misers would just spend more money, they would certainly win more games, right?

Unfortunately, baseball economics are not that simple. In today's market, there are two ways to acquire major league talent: grow it in the farm system or pay for it on the open market. The problem for lower revenue teams like the Pirates, Royals, and Astros is that competing for a pennant takes a lot of talent. And when a proven high talent player becomes available to the entire market through trade or free agency, his value is a secret to no one.

But more importantly, the Pirates, Royals, Astros, and their cellar brethren are much farther away from the level of talent needed to win big. For teams on the cusp of contention, spending $10 million on a starting pitcher might be the difference in winning 92 games instead of 89. This might sound insignificant, but that jump in wins very easily could be the difference in making the playoffs or not, earning playoff revenue or not, and winning the World Series or not. On the other hand, the 3 extra wins that pitcher brings to a 70-win team are virtually meaningless. At best, that might be the edge in not finishing last in a division.

And this is why I have a hard time mustering any anger toward Pirates' ownership for not reinvesting a few dozen millions at this point. Maybe Pittsburgh could have budgeted a few million more toward the draft and international signings, but those are not the areas where most critics want to see the Pirates bleed green.

What good would it do the Pirates to dump $10 or $20 million per year into veterans that will not be part of their long-term success? Lower revenue teams have to play boom-and-bust franchise construction. They cannot replenish their major league talent through free agent bidding wars, so they have to collect cheap assets in hopes that they peak in a competitive window of opportunity.

So spare me the arguments about civic duty. Major league franchises are not charities or non-profits. And I do not care that MLB owners by nature had to be rich in the first place to buy their teams. When teams take major losses (as many are in all major sports), where are their safety nets?

When teams perform poorly year-in, year-out, fan suffering is inevitable. But during those dry spells, there is no reason the team's finances should be obligated to suffer annually along with them.

Corrie Trouw is the founder of Pisgkinology.com.

Posted by Corrie Trouw at 12:11 PM | Comments (3)

September 1, 2010

Stephen Strasburg's Injury Was Inevitable

Almost three months ago, Nationals Stadium was filled for one of the only times in its existence. Not because the Nationals were playing well, but because the most sought-after prospect in baseball, Stephen Strasburg, was set to make his debut.

The day was June 8, 2010. The opposing team was the Pittsburgh Pirates. If the uniforms and players faces were unidentifiable, you would have thought that it was Game 7 of the World Series. And with all the excitement, nobody was let down.

Strasburg finished the game after throwing seven innings, and striking out 14 batters while walking none.

Regardless of that electrifying debut, Strasburg was recently diagnosed with a torn ligament in his arm and will likely have Tommy John surgery. Although that procedure has been proven successful, and he has a good chance of returning at full force, this should be a big wake-up call for all organizations.

The day following Strasburg's debut, I wrote an article foreshadowing the future of Strasburg's career as determined by his debut. Here is an excerpt from that article:

Last night, Strasburg threw 11 pitches at 98 miles per hour, 12 at 99 miles per hour, and two at 100 miles per hour. If Strasburg is going to continue throwing at this speed as a starter, he will have arm problems.

How did I know this? Simple: I made it a priority not to let the excitement blind me of reality. As a New York Yankees fan, I don't care if the Nationals win or lose, and I have no interest in selling tickets. That objective view allowed me to observe this event through a realistic lens. But looking at the numbers, it is concerning that I was rare in predicting this.

If you look at a breakdown of Strasburg's pitches this season, you find that over 83 percent of the pitches he threw were either a fastball or a curveball, 58 percent of which were fastballs. Furthermore, the average velocity on his fastball was over 97 miles per hour.

Now, I am not a doctor, but pitching like that cannot be healthy. Not too long ago, my baseball coaches were former baseball players, and they used to tell the pitchers to do two things to avoid soreness in their arms: don't overthrow, and avoid throwing curveballs. I'm guessing Strasburg missed that practice.

You also would have thought that the Nationals would have wanted to protect their star. However, they allowed him to throw over 90 pitches in eight of his 12 games, and over 95 pitches in six games. That's not protection if you ask me. The Nationals prolonged this anti-medical pitching mentality, and failed to end it. And now they are paying for it.

As I said, this should be a heads-up for all organizations. Selling tickets should not be your primary view, especially considering it could ruin a young kid's career. Fans should be more hesitant to carve out plaques in Cooperstown, and should instead observe the game objectively. And, more importantly, the fans should teach the coaches to do likewise.

Posted by Jess Coleman at 6:27 PM | Comments (1)

Battle For Revis Island

There are 12 days left in the Big Apple's Big Game of Chicken. The only thing at stake is the services of the best cornerback in the game. Not to mention the title hopes of a star-crossed franchise that has to look at their last Super Bowl title through the grainy lens of NFL films celluloid.

Darrelle Revis became a household name during the regular season of 2009 when the corner emerged as the main reason the Jets had allowed a staggeringly low number of 8 touchdown passes for the season. With 2 additional interceptions in his three playoff games to add to his 6 regular season picks, Darrelle Revis had climbed to near the top of the ranks for players on the other side of the ball. In only his third year in the league, No. 24 was second in the Defensive Player of the Year voting, losing out only to a ridiculous season by Charles Woodson of the Packers.

As much as Revis produced on the field, this gave him every opportunity to become a selfish, egotistical player, crave attention, and become a locker room cancer like so many others. He didn't do this and kept a professionalism about him at all times. With that said, the man knows he had an out-of-this-world 2009 and decided he wanted to be paid as such in 2010.

So in the midst of the current circus surrounding the New York Jets, from sky-high Super Bowl expectations to the outspoken Rex Ryan perpetually speaking his mind for all the media mics to pickup on, to the "Hard Knocks" HBO season filming every latest subplot, bumping all of that off the New York back pages is the Jets' number one corner. Will they or won't they sign Revis?

Part of the problem in the negotiations is that Revis wants a deal to make him the highest paid corner in football; that means higher than that of the Raiders' Nnamdi Asomugha. While there is no questioning Asomugha‘s elite status among NFL corners, Al Davis' front office is generally thought to have overpaid for his services at $15.1 million a year for 3 years. Revis doesn't care, though. He wants more. And while the Jets (particularly their coach, not helping matters for their front office) love saying they have the game's best cornerback, they don't appear to want to resort to that.

Added to the controversy was an August 11th report saying that Neil Schwartz, one of Revis' two agents (Jonathan Feinsod being the other), called out Jets owner Woody Johnson for claiming the two refused to meet with them to work out a deal, saying, "Whoever said that is a blatant liar." Jets GM Mike Tennenbaum then backed up his owner Johnson, saying that Revis' agents turned down the meeting because it was "technical in nature." Now let me ask you, have you ever heard of contract negotiations not being technical in nature? What is that really supposed to mean?

Darrelle's stance has been that he is not afraid to sit out the season if his demands are not met, nothing short of a disaster for Gang Green. Head coach Rex Ryan has suddenly changed his stance, going from Revis' personal PR guy to now saying that the Jets' defense is great enough that they don't need Revis to remain a top defensive squad. Ryan, of course, made defense his top priority when joining the Jets a year ago, so he is essentially now plugging his own ability to compensate for Revis' potential loss.

Ryan would later suggest the entire Jets organization meet with Revis in an attempt to settle their differences once and for all. Predictably, that didn't go over too well, either.

On August 25th, there were conflicting reports as to whether Revis was or was not close to signing a deal with the Jets despite the Daily News saying the two sides were $40 million apart as recently as three weeks ago. When asked, the Jets refused to comment.

The longer the holdout goes on for, the worse this looks for the Jets organization, as fans call for the team to pay the man who has been so essential to their success his due. And yet if they do manage to work a deal in these final two weeks, and Revis is a starter in Week 1, then this whole ordeal will be nothing more than a bad dream to anyone who bleeds green and white.

If anything good comes of this, it may be that this contract circus has taken all the attention away from any expectations of QB Mark Sanchez, who has shown capable of both stellar and sorry play on the field. While the fate of Revis remains up in the air, this much is true. A Jets team with a healthy and productive Revis still won't survive a lemon of a season from Sanchez in his sophomore effort anyway.

Posted by Bill Hazell at 5:37 PM | Comments (0)