Each year, a few teams have surprise seasons and make the playoffs. In 2007, the Arizona Cardinals were 8-8 and then NFC champions in 2008. In 2009, the Cincinnati Bengals made the playoffs after a 4-11-1 season. The 2008 Green Bay Packers were 6-10 and a playoff team in 2009.
The 2006 and 2009 New Orleans Saints were first after last-places finishes in 2005 and 2008. No one will forget the 2008 Miami Dolphins making the playoffs after their 2007 1-15 season.
This could be the year the Detroit Lions shock the NFL world and sneak into the playoffs. There are three reason the Lions could surprise the National Football League.
1) The offense has the potential to be explosive.
Matt Stafford enters his second NFL season with more offensive weapons than the Lions have had in recent memory, and more than many NFL teams. There is a home run threat at running back, one of the game's best receivers, two super-sized tight ends, and a quarterback with a rocket arm and increasing confidence.
The Lions' offense will feature players that should provide big plays and plenty of points. Running back Jahvid Best's speed, wide receiver Calvin Johnson's height, and the size of tight ends Brandon Pettigrew and Tony Scheffler should create matchup problems for opponent's defenses.
Scheffler's precise route-running and Pettigrew's blocking and receiving skills will give defenses more to consider when Stafford is behind center than in 2009. In two seasons with Mike Shanahan as his coach, Scheffler averaged 44 catches and 597 yards with 8 touchdowns and last season, he caught 31 passes for 416 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Although Pettigrew did not play in 2009's final five games, he led all NFL rookie tight ends in receptions (30) and receiving yards (346).
Although Stafford only started 10 games in 2009, he had a season for Detroit's record books. He ended the season second in completions (201), yards (2,267), completion percentage (54.1), and first in touchdown passes (13) for a rookie.
With Jahvid Best, there is a good chance that defenses will need to put eight men in the box, and that will leave a receiver one-on-one in the secondary. Best has speed to burn as his running back combine-best 4.35 in the 40 indicates. Defenses will now have to respect the Lions' running game and that should help the passing game.
Best comes to the Lions with not only speed, but also an ability to slash through defenses, good vision, and keen balance. Best can also catch balls out of the backfield, but Calvin Johnson, Pettigrew, and Nate Burleson will most likely get the bulk of receptions in 2010.
Wide receiver Nate Burleson comes to the Lions with decent speed combined with better-than-average hands. He will be a downfield threat for the Lions because he knows how to use his hands to separate from defensive backs.
The offensive line will be better with the addition of Rob Sims, who was acquired in a trade from Seattle. He will plug a hole on the offensive line. Stephen Peterman, who didn't play in the final seven games of 2009, will make the unit stronger. Veteran Jon Jansen has surprised many as he battles Gosder Cherilus for a starting position on the line.
Defenses can no longer just go after Stafford and bracket Calvin Johnson. With the addition of Best, Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler, and a healthy Brandon Pettigrew, the offense has the potential to put points on the board from anywhere on the field.
2) The 2010 Lions defense is much different and improved from the 2009 squad.
Ndamukong Suh, Kyle Vanden Bosch, Dre Bly, and Louis Delmas will lead the defense and make big plays, but they may also give up big plays.
The defensive line for 2010 is bigger, faster, stronger and has a different look than the 2009 team. New players include defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch and defensive tackles Corey Williams and Ndamukong Suh.
Dre Bly and Louis Delmas are both capable of interceptions and big plays, where in the past, the secondary was a major weakness for the Lions.
In 2009, Delmas became the second player and first rookie in NFL history to record a fumble return for a touchdown, safety, and an interception return for a touchdown. His 101-yard touchdown was the longest by a rookie since 1926. He also led all rookie defensive backs with 7.5 tackles for a loss.
Suh, though, is the player who will make the most impact for the Lions. He has been described as disruptive, productive, multidimensional, good against the pass and run, strong, fast, and quick.
Training camp has shown that his quickness and strength have translated to the professional level. He also hasn't been pushed around by Detroit's offensive linemen and is able to clog the running lanes. Suh has impressed everyone with his ability to glide along the line, make plays, and rush the quarterback.
The defense might not dominate opponents this year, but there are playmakers on the line and in the secondary that should keep the Lions in games.
3) Many NFL games come down to special teams and coaching.
The Lions' coaching staff is led by second-year head coach Jim Schwartz. He was long tabbed as one of the bright young NFL assistants. Schwartz is simultaneously building an explosive offense and a stout defense that will be able to compete.
The offensive and defensive coordinators are entering their second year in Detroit and both are former head coaches with long and successful resumes.
Gunther Cunningham leads the defense. He has coached in the NFL for 28 years and has experience turning around bad defenses. After two seasons in Kansas City, Cunningham improved the Chiefs' rushing defense that ranked 30th in the league in 2003 (146.5 yards allowed per game) to seventh in the NFL in 2005 (98.1 yards allowed per game.)
Scott Linehan enters his ninth season as an NFL coach. He is no stranger to turnarounds, either. In 2005, he was the offensive coordinator in Miami. He improved the team's total offense from 4,960 yards (29th, NFL) in 2004 to 5,198 yards (14th, NFL) in 2005.
Linehan was the offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach in Minnesota (2002-2004). Linehan helped the franchise to some of its best offensive seasons to date. The Vikings compiled a franchise-best 36 consecutive games of 300-yards-or-more of total offense (2002-04).
In Vikings history, his offenses also rank first and second in total yards (6,339 yards, 2004; 6,294 yards, 2003), second and third in touchdowns (51, 2003; 50, 2004), and second in points (416, 2003).
Meanwhile, in 2010, the Lions' special teams unit won't be the liability it was in 2009. There is a new coach for the group and the Lions are looking for a new punt and kick returner. If Nate Burleson returns punts, the Lions will finally have a special teams unit that will strike fear in opponents. Jahvid Best and his electrifying speed is also being given reps on the punt return team and he could see action on the kick return unit.
Kicker Jason Hanson and punter Nick Harris are consistent veterans and if they can't win the special teams battle against teams will hold their own. Hanson is only the sixth player in NFL history to connect on 400 career field goals. He also has the all-time NFL record for 50+ yard field goals. In 2009, Harris averaged 42.9 yards on 74 punts and had 20 punts inside the 20-yard line, with just 5 touchbacks.
Then there's the schedule...
The Lions' schedule is not particularly strong in 2010. Wins should be expected against St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo. Losses against the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins are likely. Detroit then has 10 games where they should have more than a chance to win.
The Lions will play divisional foes Green Bay, Minnesota, and Chicago twice and it isn't unreasonable to expect them to be 3-3 in the division.
The four games on the Lions schedule that could seal their playoff fate are: Philadelphia, Washington, New England, and the New York Giants.
Philadelphia has a new quarterback and Detroit plays the Eagles in Week 2. Kevin Kolb and Philadelphia's new offense might be off-balance when facing a defense of playmakers so early in the season.
Washington has a new coach, quarterback, and an aging backfield. All of this combined with Detroit beating them last year could mean a victory for the Lions.
New England is the Thanksgiving game, which is Detroit's only national television appearance. The Patriots aren't as formidable as in past years and Detroit's offense could spell matchup problems for New England's defense.
The Giants will be good in 2010, but Detroit may have a chance against New York. Detroit's receivers will give New York's secondary matchup problems.
An offense that can move the ball, a defense that attacks and makes big plays, combined with solid coaching, decent special teams play, and a weak schedule could mean a 10-6 record and a wild card spot for the Lions.
August 17, 2010
Andrew Jones:
I understand your arguments in 1 and 2. 3, not so much. Coaches are notoriously given too much credit when they have talent.
Also, rookie statistics are meaningless. Stafford was the number one pick. He should have had every single rookie quarterback number one slot.
I understand wins against St. Louis, Tampa and Buffalo.
3-3 in the division is outlandish. All four NFC North teams have improved (exception maybe being the Vikings). I think 3-3 would be very fortunate indeed in the division. 2-4, not outlandish. 1-5 more reasonable.
Winning on Thanksgiving against New England…no way. New England will win by three touchdowns. I know we all want the Lions to show up for Thanksgiving, but they never do.
Washington, Philly, New York Giants they’ll have a reasonable chance, but I don’t think they’ll escape better than 1-2 in those games.
Truly, if they can win six games, I think that will be an accomplishment enough.
Ten wins is out of the question.
I think it falls on Stafford and I don’t think he has what it takes yet to lead this team out of mediocrity quite yet.
I agree that they’ve certainly made moves in the right direction, but they’re not ready to compete for the North title nor the wildcard slot.