When the gaudiest free agency period in NBA history opens on Thursday at 12:01 AM, there will 171 free agents, nearly six per team. Most of those are unrestricted free agents, meaning that player turnover could reach an all-time high. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh have been talked about on end, so it's nearly redundant to say that much about them. I'll address three important questions that have not been raised too often in the buildup to early Thursday morning.
What about Dirk?
Of all the All-NBA players that will become free agents on Thursday, just one has made 10 All-NBA teams in a row. Amazingly, he has only been the fourth or fifth most-talked about free agent behind LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and possibly Amar'e Stoudemire. Yes, it's possible that Dirk Nowitzki will be the first big-name free agent to re-sign with his current team Thursday. It's probable that Nowitzki will re-sign with the Mavericks in due time after the window opens. If you're Nowitzki, though, you owe it to yourself to explore your options, especially after you've declined a $21.5 million option for yourself.
Nowitzki must have a sour taste in his mouth after his performance, coupled with his team's effort, in the playoffs against San Antonio. Nowitzki shot 55% from the field, 57% from three-point range, and 95% from the line in the Mavs' six-game crash-out as the second seed in the West, all career playoff bests for the German.
Having just turned 32, Nowitzki still has a year or two at or very close to his prime. After that, it's easy to see someone like Dirk becoming a role player for a contending team.
If Bosh is right in his speculation about the free agency period, the LeBron and Wade pieces of the puzzle will help dictate where the other major dominoes fall. If Dirk waits in free agency, he may find himself with an opportunity to go to a team with a better chance of contending than the aging Mavs, whose nucleus has no contracted players under age 30.
How will the possibility of labor unrest in a year affect the free agent market?
The NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement expires at the end of next season. Revenue is down league-wide, and David Stern says that the league lost $400 million last season. Owners seemingly have no choice than to undergo a new era of austerity. However, in the face of the oncoming free agent bonanza, frugality may lead to uncompetitiveness and further losses in revenue.
From the players' side, a reduction in contract length and salaries are certainties with the next CBA. Players with early opt-outs and restricted free agents are surely being told by their agents to sign contracts and lock in as much of a pay day as possible this summer in lieu of the possibility of a work stoppage or no season in 2011-2012.
As much movement as was promised by the names in this free agent class may be augmented by an impasse between the owners and the labor union.
What about the non-superstars?
This past Sunday, a report came out that LeBron was destined for Chicago, along with Bosh. If that ends up being true, Chicago would still have just seven players under contract for next season: LeBron, Bosh, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, James Johnson, and Taj Gibson. Now, that's not a bad seven players in the least bit, but there obviously needs more than seven players to make up a team.
Teams that have put a lot their eggs in the summer 2010 basket are in similar circumstances: the Knicks have just five definitively contracted for next season, the Nets five, the Heat two, the Clippers five. The five above teams, without accounting for LeBron and Bosh on Chicago, have an average of just $21 million committed to their teams for next season, or less than 40% of the 2009-10 salary cap. That number, in practicality, is less when counting for cap exceptions for rookies, the mid-level exception, and others.
What teams that do land big-name free agents do with the extra cap space and cap exceptions they do have will be crucial to the NBA sea change that is likely to result from the next month.
Some of the most valuable names below the top echelon of free agents include Rudy Gay, John Salmons, Luis Scola, and Brendan Haywood. Even deeper down most people's list are players like Anthony Morrow, Kyle Lowry, and Roger Mason, Jr., who all could become productive role players for teams with star players.
Getting LeBron, Wade, or Bosh would be a coup should any change teams, and especially if LeBron and Bosh go as a package deal. However, how a team complements a big acquisition, and how it plays the labor struggle, may be just as important to a club's success.
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