Lessons From Baseball’s First Half

At nearly the half-way point of the Major League Baseball season, we have a pretty good idea now of who is going to be what. With the exception of a few big trades in the possible offing (Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Ozzie Guillen's Twitter account) teams are going to have to win or lose the race based on the parts already under the hood.

So, with that in mind, let's take a look around baseball, see what we've learned.

Baltimore Orioles — Hey, Peter Angelos, it's you! You could hire Phil Jackson to manage this club with the ghost of Vince Lombardi as his bench coach and they still wouldn't crack .500. Angelos' ownership reign hangs on the city of Baltimore like a White Castle fart in a car with no windows. And until he goes/sells/dies, nothing else matters.

Boston Red Sox — Remember when David Ortiz was just another aging fat guy? Then he hit .363 with a .788 slugging percentage in May. Sooooo ... either Ortiz is immune from the laws of physical nature dealing with fat old guys, or he's found a way around them (wink wink nudge nudge). Either way, the Sox will have a say in how October unfolds.

St. Louis Cardinals — The expectations game in St. Louis is creating a skewed view of this team. Chris Carpenter is giving up too many home runs — but he's 8-1 with a 2.83 ERA. Albert Pujols is striking out too much, but he's seventh in the NL is batting average, and fourth in homers and RBI. The bottom line is this is the best team in the NL Central and should have no time losing to the Dodgers in the NLDS again this year.

San Diego Padres — Great bullpen. Decent pitching. Turrrrrible offense. They're already starting to fade (9-9 in June) and that's before playing four of the final six first-half series on the road. If you've got to lay bets on one first-place team collapsing in the second half, the Padres have to be 1 or 1a (the Braves' home/road split is cause for concern).

Atlanta Braves — 24-7 at home, 18-21 on the road. The good news is that the rest of their schedule has more home games than road games. The bad news is that they're unlikely to carry a .774 winning percentage at home through the rest of the year. They need to win more on the road to hold off Philly and the Mets (if they make the big pitching move they need).

Philadelphia Phillies — So maybe they should have just hung on to Cliff Lee after all. They will doubly regret the move if the Mets can somehow land Lee from the Mariners. That would suck.

New York Mets — Jose Reyes is only going to get better. Carlos Beltran is on his way back. And I fully expect Omar Minaya to add some starting pitching in a trade market that's going to have some very decent arms on the block. Translation: this is going to be a team to be reckoned with.

Florida Marlins — Small budget teams need two things to be able to make a serious run to the playoffs: good pitching and good chemistry. The Marlins have a stud ace in Josh Johnson, but the rest of the staff is a mess. And no team with a schmuck like Hanley Ramirez as its best player is going to have great team chemistry.

Toronto Blue Jays — You know how some girls are hot because of the context in which we know them? That's the Blue Jays. In any other division, they're a hot cheerleader. In this one, they're somewhere between Ugly Betty and Amy Winehouse.

Pittsburgh Pirates — Yeah, whatever.

Los Angeles Dodgers — If I'm an NL team right now, this is the one squad I don't want to see in the playoffs. The starting pitching is there. The bullpen is there. The offense is there. The divorce lawyers are there. It's going to take a team firing on all cylinders to send them on vacation.

Arizona Diamondbacks — I hate to see them start the fire sale this early because I still think they have the raw talent to be a much better club than they are right now. But something isn't clicking with this club, and so you have to change the players or the coaches. I'd start with the coaches, but that doesn't seem to be the direction they're taking. And so some lucky club is going to reap the spoils.

Colorado Rockies — Despite Ubaldo Jimenez' incredible start, there are too many holes to overcome the Dodgers. Missing Troy Tulowitzki for the next two months certainly isn't going to help.

Washington Nationals — I want to blast them for holding back on Stephen Strasburg, but even old-school Hall of Famers started slow. Bob Gibson didn't top 150 innings until he was in his third season at age 25. Nolan Ryan was 24 in his fifth season. Roger Clemens was 24 in his third season. Strasburg is in his first season of pro ball and just 21 years old (22 next month). The Nats are doing the right thing, even if it's going to suck to see him shut down in early September.

Chicago Cubs — The injury to Aramis Ramirez has been a huge blow to this team. Without top-flight pitching and an offense that is very hit-or-miss, it's hard to see Lou Pinella getting this club near the post season.

San Francisco Giants — Tim Lincecum's return to humanity, with a 4.60 ERA in his last five starts, has to be of concern. He's the magic ingredient they need to contend.

Houston Astros — Holy cow this team turned to suck quick. The only real reason to pay attention to them now is to see how they bolster another playoff team by trading Roy Oswalt and/or Carlos Lee.

Los Angeles Angels — They might get to the playoffs on experience and guile, but the offense is liable to get shutdown by top opposing pitchers, and the pitching is liable to get beat-up against top opposing offenses. If they get matched against an AL East team in the playoffs, they're getting beat.

Tampa Bay Rays — Their pitching is still somewhat of a worry, but they have the lineup to hang with the Crips and Bloods. I just hope to God they don't find themselves having to dump Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena for money reasons while they're still in the hunt.

Kansas City Royals — Rick Ankiel, you are one of the top five greatest baseball disappointments of my life. Also, Zack Greinke is the reason you don't spend a high-round fantasy draft pick on starters from crappy teams. A 2-8 record with a 3.94 ERA and sub-1.2 WHIP? Are you kidding me?

Detroit Tigers — The pitching isn't there and there's a brewing fire sale on the horizon. Law or no law, Jim Leyland is going to be chain smoking like a mo-fo.

Milwaukee Brewers — I don't care where they are in the standings, you don't trade Prince Fielder this season when you have the nucleus to compete in 2011. That's just dumb.

Chicago White Sox — Hey President Obama, shove Ozzie Guillen and his massive ego in that pipe in the gulf and everything will be fine.

New York Yankees — Best record in the majors yet again. If they don't end up in the ALCS, I'll be absolutely shocked. Like BP-really-gives-a-crap shocked. They're just too solid.

Minnesota Twins — Don't look now, but Delmon Young is hitting .387 in June with 16 RBI in 17 games. If he can be a steady contributor, and Ron Gardenhire gives him regular ABs, he could be the key in getting the Twins to the next level.

Cincinnati Reds — With Johnny Cueto regressing (7.15 ERA in his last four starts), it's going to be more important than ever for the Reds to get second-half contributions from Edinson Volquez and Aroldis Chapman. That's what you call putting your last dollar on a long shot.

Cleveland Indians — When your city's biggest sports story of the summer is whether a basketball player will stay or go, your baseball team is no damn good.

Oakland Athletics — Typical A's ... a lot of good young players mixed in with a few old guys who are about to be traded for some more good young players.

Seattle Mariners — What did you expect when you signed Milton Bradley? You didn't think he made it on to his eighth team in 11 years by being a critical part of winning franchises, did you?

Texas Rangers — The Rangers are no joke. They have the highest AL run differential outside the AL East, the fourth-best team ERA in the AL, and the third-highest team batting average in the AL. Don't expect Texas to fade anytime soon.

Of course, these are just snapshots in time, and there is certainly plenty of time left, but it's no stretch to think what we see now is a fairly close approximation to what we'll end up with in the dying days of September. So if you've got bets on a Dodgers/Yankees World Series, keep those betting slips in a safe place.